1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,319
Speaker 1: I think we've got to be open about it and

2
00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:03,400
Speaker 1: not make it to do, and not be embarrassed about it,

3
00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:05,440
Speaker 1: and be really clear. If you have out of rubbish

4
00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:08,200
Speaker 1: night seat because of it, then share that experience, because

5
00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:10,200
Speaker 1: there'll be lots of other women going through exactly the

6
00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:16,640
Speaker 1: same thing as me each and every day. Hello and

7
00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,680
Speaker 1: welcome to Stephonomics, the podcast that brings the global economy

8
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,320
Speaker 1: to you. If you think about the really big changes

9
00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:25,040
Speaker 1: coming down the track over the next twenty to thirty years,

10
00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,560
Speaker 1: the aging of the global population would be high on

11
00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,160
Speaker 1: anyone's list. It could affect the growth rate of our economy,

12
00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:35,040
Speaker 1: how much we spend, what we spend it on, the

13
00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,959
Speaker 1: kind of jobs that are needed, could affect pretty much

14
00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,920
Speaker 1: everything in fact. But one consequence that probably hasn't crossed

15
00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,960
Speaker 1: your radar is that nearly one in four women around

16
00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:49,639
Speaker 1: the world could be going through the menopause. By Bloomberg

17
00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,879
Speaker 1: Economy reporter Lizzie Burden has looked into the economics of

18
00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 1: that mildly alarming prospect. You'll hear from her in a

19
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,920
Speaker 1: few minutes, but first, let's talk about another major chain

20
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,680
Speaker 1: age we're expecting the global economy to go through. Becoming

21
00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:18,200
Speaker 1: more Chinese. Betting when exactly China overtakes the US as

22
00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 1: the world's largest economy is a popular pastime among economists.

23
00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,880
Speaker 1: Whether that handover will happen doesn't arouse much debate at all,

24
00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,080
Speaker 1: especially not in Beijing, where they've just been celebrating the

25
00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,920
Speaker 1: hundred anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, and its leaders

26
00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,560
Speaker 1: have been doing their best to present that passing of

27
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:40,040
Speaker 1: the battern from the US to China as both imminent

28
00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,080
Speaker 1: and inevitable. The Chinese nation, president shi Jingping said last

29
00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:50,440
Speaker 1: week is marching towards a great rejuvenation at an unstoppable pace.

30
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,920
Speaker 1: But is it so unstoppable? Is China really destined to

31
00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: take over the world in the near future. Well, Bloomberg's

32
00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,760
Speaker 1: chief economist Tom Orlick, friend of Stephanomics, has asked exactly

33
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:06,200
Speaker 1: that question in some research with our China economist Eric

34
00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 1: Schu and come up with some interesting answers. Tom, thanks

35
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,080
Speaker 1: for joining us again. Tell me about this research before

36
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,400
Speaker 1: we go on to have a broader debate about it.

37
00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 1: So China has a lot of things in its favor, Stephanie.

38
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 1: There's one point for billion Chinese people GDP per capita

39
00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,560
Speaker 1: in China is a fraction of the level in the

40
00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:32,760
Speaker 1: United States, pointing to substantial space for continued development, and

41
00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,800
Speaker 1: China's leaders have a formidable track record on delivering on

42
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,640
Speaker 1: their development their development objectives. So at one level, it

43
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,720
Speaker 1: seems like a no brainer that China will inevitably overtake

44
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,560
Speaker 1: the United States and claim the top spot in the

45
00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,840
Speaker 1: global economic rankings. At the same time, there's a bunch

46
00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:56,840
Speaker 1: of vulnerabilities and uncertainties. A shrinking working age population, are

47
00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:01,760
Speaker 1: stalled reform agenda, an overhang of which raises the possibility

48
00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:06,200
Speaker 1: of a financial crisis and increasingly the risk of isolation

49
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,120
Speaker 1: in the global community, slowing the flow of technology and

50
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,560
Speaker 1: ideas and innovations which have catalyzed China's development. So what

51
00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:16,679
Speaker 1: we did in this piece, my colleague Eric Jew and

52
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,160
Speaker 1: myself is put some numbers around those risks and identify

53
00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 1: scenarios from a kind of rapid overtake which would see

54
00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,040
Speaker 1: China claiming the top spot at the beginning of the

55
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:33,720
Speaker 1: twenty thirties, to stall financial crisis and other misfires which

56
00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:38,280
Speaker 1: would see China's trapped in a perpetual second place. It

57
00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,640
Speaker 1: did seem and you do you go through? You go

58
00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 1: through all of these. There are three factors that seemed

59
00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 1: like the sort of three components of the positive scenario.

60
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,480
Speaker 1: The things that China would have to get right would

61
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 1: have to turn out China's way for it to overtake

62
00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 1: the US economy fairly soon. And I guess those three

63
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,880
Speaker 1: are I guess, first, how the US does relative to China.

64
00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,200
Speaker 1: If US continues to go like gang busses and the

65
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,040
Speaker 1: next few years, one has to assume it's going to

66
00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,840
Speaker 1: be a bit harder for China to overtake. And this

67
00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:13,720
Speaker 1: the second that you also highlight is whether or not

68
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,799
Speaker 1: the rest of the world makes it easier or harder

69
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:20,440
Speaker 1: for China to grow. It's been a very hospitable place

70
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,920
Speaker 1: the global trading system for most of China's recent development,

71
00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,800
Speaker 1: but we know that that's the tide has been turning

72
00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,280
Speaker 1: on that under President Trump, but also under President Biden.

73
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 1: And then I guess the third pieces whether how successfully

74
00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,279
Speaker 1: it reforms its economy and deals with those challenges that

75
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:41,200
Speaker 1: you highlight, the aging population, declining productivity. So I guess

76
00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,200
Speaker 1: maybe just if we could, if we could run through

77
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,800
Speaker 1: each one of those, I mean, firstly, just the relative

78
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 1: performance of the rest of the world. How how much

79
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:53,560
Speaker 1: does that figure in the faster scenarios. So there's two

80
00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,560
Speaker 1: areas where the rest of the world can have a

81
00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,800
Speaker 1: big impact on China's development trajectory. The first one is

82
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,840
Speaker 1: the US does at home. Biden has a plan for infrastructure,

83
00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,960
Speaker 1: He's got a plan for families, which could significantly increase

84
00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:13,440
Speaker 1: workforce participation. If these plans turn out to be down

85
00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:18,840
Speaker 1: payments on a more aggressive development strategy for the United States,

86
00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,760
Speaker 1: we could see the US growing faster than expected over

87
00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:26,359
Speaker 1: the next ten years twenty years. As you mentioned, a

88
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:30,400
Speaker 1: faster growing US would obviously be a harder US for

89
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:34,400
Speaker 1: China to catch up with an overtake. The second area

90
00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,839
Speaker 1: where the U s could have a significant impact on

91
00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:41,719
Speaker 1: China's trajectory is the sort of set of issues around decoupling.

92
00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,400
Speaker 1: One of the reasons China has grown so fast is

93
00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 1: because they've been able to tap global markets for technology,

94
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:54,360
Speaker 1: for ideas, for innovations. What we're already seeing is the

95
00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 1: door to global markets for China is starting to swing closed.

96
00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,839
Speaker 1: The US and it's allies are taking a hard look

97
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,880
Speaker 1: at China. They don't like what they see. They don't

98
00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,120
Speaker 1: want to support China's development. They certainly don't want to

99
00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 1: support China's acquisition of strategically important technologies, so they're making

100
00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:17,440
Speaker 1: that harder. On the Chinese side, there's this kind of

101
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:22,600
Speaker 1: laundry list of reforms which are necessary to boost productivity

102
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:27,560
Speaker 1: and to offset the demographic drag. So it's critical for

103
00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,760
Speaker 1: China to continuing investing in research and development. It's critical

104
00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:35,880
Speaker 1: for them to have space for dynamic private sector entrepreneurs.

105
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,840
Speaker 1: They would love to see fertility move higher. The one

106
00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,920
Speaker 1: child policy has been a disaster for their demographics and

107
00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,040
Speaker 1: now threatens to crypt size of their working age population.

108
00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:50,840
Speaker 1: And at the other end of the age spectrum, they

109
00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,800
Speaker 1: need to raise the pension age to keep workers on

110
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 1: the job a bit longer. And if you if you

111
00:06:57,760 --> 00:06:59,480
Speaker 1: sort of pull that together and just trying to kind

112
00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,400
Speaker 1: of crystalli as in our minds, what what difference it

113
00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,040
Speaker 1: makes to the to the sort of in the future

114
00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 1: for the ten and twenty year time frame. Obviously, it's

115
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:12,760
Speaker 1: like sticking in a figure in the air. You can't

116
00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,560
Speaker 1: necessarily predict the exact year when China is going to

117
00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 1: overtake the US, not least because we're talking about the

118
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: nominal value of GDP here. I know there are lots

119
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,080
Speaker 1: of people listening saying, hang on, China is already overtaken

120
00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,720
Speaker 1: the US. And that's true when it comes to what

121
00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,880
Speaker 1: they call the purchasing power parity basis. So if you're

122
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:31,680
Speaker 1: taking too account the fact that things are cheaper in

123
00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:36,600
Speaker 1: China than the US, China has already overtaken it. But

124
00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 1: if we're just looking as you are in this piece,

125
00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 1: if you're looking at the sort of cash value, the

126
00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:45,880
Speaker 1: nominal value of its economy relative to the US, what's

127
00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,400
Speaker 1: that if everything goes right, what's the fastest you think

128
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,360
Speaker 1: it could overtake the US or what's the most the

129
00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:57,880
Speaker 1: soonest date and what is the impact of those factors

130
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,240
Speaker 1: progressively going worse for China? Is that is it just

131
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,240
Speaker 1: that it never overtakes or it just pushed it into

132
00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,480
Speaker 1: the sort of fifty year time frame. So if everything

133
00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:12,480
Speaker 1: goes right, Stephanie, if ties with the US remain robust,

134
00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,360
Speaker 1: if China can push forward its domestic reform agenda, if

135
00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,800
Speaker 1: trying to can dodge a financial crisis, if trying as

136
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,040
Speaker 1: GDP data is indeed credible and gives an accurate read

137
00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,440
Speaker 1: on the size of the economy, then we think they

138
00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:32,559
Speaker 1: could overtake. If all of those things go wrong, if

139
00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,719
Speaker 1: ties with the US splinter, if domestic reform fails, if

140
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,120
Speaker 1: trying to faces a financial crisis, if the GDP data

141
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:50,520
Speaker 1: is exaggerated, then China stays in perpetual second place. Okay,

142
00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,679
Speaker 1: so let's let me bring into this conversation the economist

143
00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 1: and author George Magnus. He's now an associate at the

144
00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,640
Speaker 1: China Center at Oxford University. He's also a former economists

145
00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,360
Speaker 1: for UBS and most importantly for US. He has written

146
00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:09,360
Speaker 1: extensively about China's economy, including a book in eighteen Red Flax,

147
00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:13,640
Speaker 1: Why She's China Is in Jeopardy. So George, thanks very

148
00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,880
Speaker 1: much for joining us. I know that some of these

149
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:22,320
Speaker 1: questions that Tom's raised in this research definitely are consistent

150
00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 1: with questions that you've had about China's development and its future.

151
00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,920
Speaker 1: But when we looked at China last year handling COVID,

152
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 1: many people thought, well, hang out. This shows yet again

153
00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,240
Speaker 1: that China is incredibly good at managing very tough challenges

154
00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:40,319
Speaker 1: and has actually managed to grow in this year where

155
00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,920
Speaker 1: the rest of the global economy shrank. Are you feeling

156
00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,160
Speaker 1: have you have you changed your view of the of

157
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,440
Speaker 1: China's prospects as a result of its effective management of

158
00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,160
Speaker 1: COVID or do you think that Tom's right in this

159
00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,960
Speaker 1: analysis to question it? Well, Step, I mean, I don't

160
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,679
Speaker 1: think the pandemics really all there's sort of management of

161
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:05,040
Speaker 1: the pandemic has really had a material impact on you know,

162
00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:08,000
Speaker 1: the sort of the fundamental view, because what we're really

163
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,280
Speaker 1: talking about here, I think, is whether China is going

164
00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,959
Speaker 1: to lapse into or succumb to the middle income trap,

165
00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,400
Speaker 1: under which conditions it's GDP at least certainly per capita

166
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 1: terms will never converge with the United States substantially may

167
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,800
Speaker 1: converge a bit, but also in which it's the monetary

168
00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,960
Speaker 1: value of its GDP may also, as Tomas indicated or suggested,

169
00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,960
Speaker 1: might permanently stay less than it is in the United States.

170
00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:41,680
Speaker 1: That the pandemic certainly has had a very significant effect

171
00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,480
Speaker 1: in the way in which people kind of evaluate how

172
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,839
Speaker 1: you deal with the pandemic. I mean, if you can

173
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:52,040
Speaker 1: impose draconian suppression using public health measures, measures as the

174
00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:55,359
Speaker 1: Chinese have done, which are not really we've had lockdowns,

175
00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 1: but not nothing like the kind of measures which the

176
00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:04,160
Speaker 1: Chinese were able to to bring about, then yeah. I mean,

177
00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,880
Speaker 1: there's an efficiency if you want to, if that's the

178
00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,600
Speaker 1: right word, that you can use about in the way

179
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:12,360
Speaker 1: in which you can deal with such problems. But I

180
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:17,640
Speaker 1: don't think that really cuts any ice with opinion, which

181
00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,880
Speaker 1: is really about well, you know, they were very efficient

182
00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,880
Speaker 1: in dealing with it when it was a problem, and

183
00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,160
Speaker 1: the economy turned around much more quickly than anybody's else.

184
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 1: But actually, in the wash, we're all going to end

185
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,400
Speaker 1: up in a comparable place. I mean, sooner or later,

186
00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 1: you know, we'll all be vaccinated, sooner or later. Lost

187
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,920
Speaker 1: output will be regained sooner or later, you know, the

188
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:43,280
Speaker 1: pandemic hopefully we'll just be kind of history. But what

189
00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 1: we'll be left with is why was it all so untransparent?

190
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,000
Speaker 1: Why didn't we hear here about it? Why did they

191
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,560
Speaker 1: try to suppress information about it? And and then I

192
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,800
Speaker 1: think will be the lasting legacy rather than the speed

193
00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:58,840
Speaker 1: with which they clamped down on on this virus. And

194
00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:00,679
Speaker 1: you talk about the middle link come trapped, I mean,

195
00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,640
Speaker 1: I guess the other example is not so much a

196
00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,000
Speaker 1: middle income chap but of a of a country that

197
00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,960
Speaker 1: we predicted would overtake and then didn't. Is Japan, And

198
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,240
Speaker 1: you could say it was the sort of cautionary tale.

199
00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,599
Speaker 1: Do you think there are any any comparisons there? Do

200
00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,960
Speaker 1: you think there's some of the same weaknesses in China's

201
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:21,760
Speaker 1: development that have come through in Japan's case. Yes, In fact,

202
00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,240
Speaker 1: i'd sort of broadened a little bit. I'd say, you know,

203
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,920
Speaker 1: think about Japan in the nineteen eighties, think about Brazil

204
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 1: in the nineteen seventies, the Soviet Union in the fifties

205
00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:34,920
Speaker 1: and sixties, even Germany in the nineteen thirties. With hindsight,

206
00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,440
Speaker 1: of course, we all know that these were basket cases,

207
00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,679
Speaker 1: or that they were making terrible errors in their economic

208
00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:45,439
Speaker 1: and kind of commercial financial policies. But actually, in real

209
00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:50,120
Speaker 1: time it was genuinely felt kind of concerned that that

210
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,640
Speaker 1: they would overtake us. So, you know, Kristcheff said in

211
00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,480
Speaker 1: nineteen fifty six, history is on our side, and we

212
00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 1: will bury you. I mean, I don't think the Japanese

213
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,240
Speaker 1: ever said anly think as aggressive as that, as well

214
00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 1: as far as I can remember, But certainly the Americans

215
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,800
Speaker 1: were absolutely paranoid that, you know, the Japanese would eat

216
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,600
Speaker 1: their their commercial and economic lunch and so on and

217
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,760
Speaker 1: so forth, and these things never happened, and I think

218
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,040
Speaker 1: the reasons why the why they never actually did happen.

219
00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,080
Speaker 1: I mean, actually often there is six of one, half

220
00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,240
Speaker 1: a dozen the other. Sometimes it's a question of just

221
00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,280
Speaker 1: a failure of institutions to adapt. Sometimes it's that the

222
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,840
Speaker 1: boom periods, which we all kind of think are going

223
00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:35,920
Speaker 1: to go on forever, are founded on much more temporary

224
00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 1: phenomena than we recognize at the time, like credit or

225
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 1: you know, commodity prices in the case of Brazil. I mean,

226
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,959
Speaker 1: one of my favorite kind of examples nowadays actually is

227
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,559
Speaker 1: to cite in the case of the Soviet Union, when

228
00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:54,839
Speaker 1: Gorbachev came to power, we still thought that at that

229
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,560
Speaker 1: time that you know, Russia was a fort the Soviet

230
00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:01,439
Speaker 1: Union was a force. But actually income ahead and consumption

231
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 1: per head in the Soviet Union relative to the relative

232
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,440
Speaker 1: to the United States was actually a bit higher than

233
00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 1: it is in China today. So you know, China has

234
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 1: the income ahead of Malaysia or Russia, but a consumption

235
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,439
Speaker 1: per head which is flanked by Jamaica and Iraq. Now

236
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:21,800
Speaker 1: that's basically there's something fundamentally wrong in the structure of

237
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,760
Speaker 1: the Chinese economy because they have this very kind of

238
00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:31,480
Speaker 1: leninist view about the significance of production supply. Um, there's

239
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:36,040
Speaker 1: certainly not the enamored or enlightened view about consumption and

240
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,160
Speaker 1: service producing industries, which we think are you know, I

241
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,920
Speaker 1: mean we would say that, wouldn't we, Because in liberal

242
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 1: leaning democracy is it's it's our leading edge. It's the

243
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 1: main thing that we've got. M But the development model

244
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:53,240
Speaker 1: in China, I think everybody agrees, including China's leaders, you know,

245
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,400
Speaker 1: does need a makeover. It's just that I think, you know,

246
00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,760
Speaker 1: and I'm impressed often when I hear privately here Chinese

247
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,840
Speaker 1: officials talking about why it needs it. But I think

248
00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,000
Speaker 1: the problem is that it's politically really really difficult for

249
00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,600
Speaker 1: them to agree the kind of governance changes which would

250
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 1: be necessary for that shift to happen. Tom, your recent

251
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,600
Speaker 1: book on China actually had a fairly positive take and

252
00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 1: at least was reminding people how effectively China has been

253
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,600
Speaker 1: able to deal with this leadership has been able to

254
00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,920
Speaker 1: deal with some pretty big challenges already, and the feeling

255
00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,600
Speaker 1: of your book is that we shouldn't underrate their ability

256
00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,320
Speaker 1: to overcome these challenges. So what would you say back

257
00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,680
Speaker 1: to George on this? Well, I mean George makes it

258
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:45,320
Speaker 1: makes a survey the vast range of economic history and

259
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,120
Speaker 1: made a number of compelling points, so there's a lot

260
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 1: to agree with their. At the same time, I take

261
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 1: a different view um when we think about sort of

262
00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:01,640
Speaker 1: China in international comparison, I think the obvious comparison to

263
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:08,400
Speaker 1: make is not with the USSRVE or Brazil in the seventies,

264
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:14,360
Speaker 1: or Japan. I think the obvious comparison to make is

265
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:19,360
Speaker 1: with Japan and Korea, and indeed Taiwan at an earlier

266
00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:24,080
Speaker 1: stage of their development. China is following the East Asian

267
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 1: development model, where the state plays a strong guiding role

268
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 1: in allocating capital towards achieving development objectives. And we've seen

269
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:41,160
Speaker 1: in Korea and Japan and in Taiwan that that development

270
00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 1: model is a very powerful driver, and in the case

271
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 1: of Japan and Korea has lifted those economies pretty close

272
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 1: to US levels of GDP per capita. If we think

273
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 1: about where China is right now, significantly behind in terms

274
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 1: of GDP per capita, but following broadly the same development model,

275
00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:07,399
Speaker 1: I didn't see a compelling reason why they wouldn't be

276
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 1: able to continue following that trajectory. George, Yes, there is

277
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,480
Speaker 1: there are similarities, but I think they are less convincing

278
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 1: from my point of view than that I think the

279
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 1: way Tom explained and understands it. I mean, the reliance

280
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:30,960
Speaker 1: on exports is certainly a genuine comparison, although in China's case,

281
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,120
Speaker 1: of course, the export orientation of the economy is now

282
00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,000
Speaker 1: and has been since two thousand and eight two thousand nine,

283
00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 1: now playing second fiddle by a long shot really to investment.

284
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,760
Speaker 1: And the first kind of difference then is that the

285
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 1: investment share of GDP in China is higher than any

286
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:51,439
Speaker 1: of those countries ever achieved, at least perhaps maybe for

287
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 1: no more than perhaps they were for a year or two.

288
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 1: But China is, I think, taken this kind of investment

289
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,679
Speaker 1: model to extreme, and it is fine, really difficult to

290
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 1: wean itself off it. The second thing is that these

291
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:07,959
Speaker 1: countries of the Tiger economies in Japan all indulged in

292
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: political reform and saw the necessity for institutional and political

293
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 1: change to enable structural change in the economy to take place. Third,

294
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 1: differences of the demography, and so when the Tiger economies

295
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 1: by and large had China's income per head, they were

296
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 1: able to look forward for some time to a continuous

297
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 1: rise in the working age population. China can't do that anymore.

298
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,959
Speaker 1: It's demography basically turned around in two thousand and twelve,

299
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 1: and we know that it will now relentlessly deteriorate, so

300
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:47,640
Speaker 1: to speak, until well for the foreseeable future, and then last,

301
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,159
Speaker 1: but not least, it's the idea about liberalizing economic reform.

302
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: We know that from China's past, in the last thirty

303
00:18:54,880 --> 00:19:00,199
Speaker 1: or forty years, its highest productivity periods where those that

304
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:05,000
Speaker 1: were associated with the liberalizing economic reform, which the pragmatic

305
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:09,000
Speaker 1: elements of the Communist Party were quite happy to embark on.

306
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,679
Speaker 1: And I think my issue really with Tom's suggestion is

307
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 1: that in two thousand and twelve everything changed with sech

308
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:19,439
Speaker 1: Pain coming to power, and I think that appetite for

309
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:23,359
Speaker 1: liberalizing economic reform and pragmatism has basically gone out the

310
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 1: window now, I mean to all intents and purposes, and

311
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 1: so I don't really have very very high confidence. I

312
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 1: think it would be churlish for me to say they

313
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,200
Speaker 1: can't do it, because it's a data driven economy. As

314
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 1: we all are information driven, We've got new metrics according

315
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 1: to which to try to evaluate economic performance. But I

316
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:46,400
Speaker 1: think that the departures or the dissimilarities now between contemporary

317
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 1: China and the tiger economies in Japan are now much

318
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 1: more impressive than the similarities. I would say I'm perplexed

319
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 1: the idea that China's investment is a source of weakness. Clearly,

320
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 1: China's investment is overdone. There is overcapacity in industry, in

321
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: real estate, in infrastructure. At the same time, it's the

322
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 1: capacity of the government to a mass funds for investment

323
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 1: and then implement that investment in a strategic way. There's

324
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: actually been the main lever for lifting China from a

325
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 1: backwards agrarian economy at the end of the nineteen seventies

326
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 1: to a middle income economy today. So I would actually

327
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 1: put strong investment in the kind of success part of

328
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 1: the equation rather than the failure part of the equation.

329
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 1: On the idea that there's been a kind of a

330
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 1: radical shift or a failure in China from twenty twelve on, well,

331
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 1: I certainly agree that China has moved on to a

332
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 1: different trajectory from twenty twelve on. But the idea that

333
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 1: there's been a kind of a wholesale failure of economic

334
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 1: management or financial management or reform I don't actually agree with.

335
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 1: If we think about the period from twelve on, We've

336
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 1: had the completion of interest rate liberalization, the completion of

337
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 1: exchange rate liberalization, the supply side reform agenda, which closed

338
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 1: down significant amounts of over capacity and industry and dealt

339
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 1: with over capacity in real estate. And we've had the

340
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:27,479
Speaker 1: rise of tech giants like ten Cents, Ali Baba and

341
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 1: ma Juan. So certainly China is diverging from a kind

342
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 1: of Western Washington consensus path over the course of the

343
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 1: last decade, but it's trying to kind of failing in

344
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 1: a kind of economic governance sense. I would I would

345
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 1: not agree with that assessment. We're going to get come

346
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 1: to an end, but I wanted I'm interested hearing both

347
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,439
Speaker 1: of you whether you think ultimately the biggest threat to

348
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: China's future supremaci if you like, is going to be

349
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 1: inside or outside its borders, Because clearly, as George has

350
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:03,719
Speaker 1: just said, the leadership has changed and has perhaps become

351
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: more authoritarian and certainly more more into centralized control over

352
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 1: the last few years, and that one could say, does

353
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 1: pose a threat to the ability to reform in the future.

354
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 1: And the world has become a less suspitable place. So

355
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 1: I just wondered, I mean, maybe you first tom which

356
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: you think is ultimately the bigger threat outside or inside? Um,

357
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: there are risks in both directions, but I think we

358
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 1: probably overstate China's kind of dependence or risk from foreign forces.

359
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: I think probably China's own government kind of pays too

360
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:45,480
Speaker 1: much attention to that. I think China's biggest policy failings,

361
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: from the Great Leap forward to the Cultural Revolution, to

362
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: the one child policy which is now hammering their demographic trajectory,

363
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 1: those biggest reformed failings have all come from close to home,

364
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 1: and I think that's where the biggest risks are going

365
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: forward as well. George last word, Yeah, I think I

366
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 1: think we agree on that at least. I mean, I

367
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: think the external of our environment is going to be

368
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,680
Speaker 1: a factor, which it has not been since the nineteen

369
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 1: fifties and nineteen sixties. I mean, China does still have

370
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: huge dependency on semiconductors. You, I mean, how do you

371
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: have advanced technologies in the twenties and the twenty thirties

372
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: if you are so far behind in terms of advanced

373
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: and high end semiconductors and integrated circuits. And I think

374
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 1: you know, the United States and liberal leaning democracies are

375
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 1: going to make it harder for China to compete in

376
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: these areas. And I think that is a factor which

377
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 1: we can't really quantify. But I do agree that to

378
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: the extent that there's a threat to China's you know,

379
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 1: GDP trajectory, it's middle income UH status and so on and

380
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,240
Speaker 1: and so forth. I think it is internal, and I

381
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 1: think it's for the very recent time just denied. I mean,

382
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 1: I don't really see any evidence of I mean, I

383
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 1: see evidence of change, and I see evidence that inciging

384
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 1: pink government are trying to do things that are important

385
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: in terms of reducing inequality and maintaining employment and all

386
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: these kinds of things. But actually I think they keep

387
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: on running up against a brick wall actually, and it's

388
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: not really being very successful. So these are the early

389
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: days I think of governance weakness and how totalitarian governance

390
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: systems basically failed to deal with fundamental economic problems. I

391
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: just think they're going to get worse. So internally, I

392
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: think the biggest threat lies there. Yeah, George Magmas, tom Alick,

393
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:46,880
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Now, the menopause doesn't get talked

394
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 1: about much in polite company, or even in impolite company

395
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 1: for that matter. But women of a certain age are

396
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: leaving the workforce in rising numbers just when we might

397
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 1: have wanted older women to make a bigger contribution. That's

398
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 1: le some senior business leaders to say we need to

399
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 1: break that to boo and start talking about what the

400
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 1: menopause means for women and for the economy. Here's Lizzie Burden.

401
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: It's not every day that a foot see one hundred

402
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: boss tells you about her nightly hot flashes, but for

403
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 1: forty five year old Live Garfield, chief executive of British

404
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: water services provider seven Trent, sharing her own experience is

405
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 1: an important way of breaking down stigma around menopause in

406
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 1: the workplace. I think we've got to be open about

407
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: it and not make it to boo, and not be

408
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 1: embarrassed about it, and be really clear. If you have

409
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: out of rubbish night seat because of it, then share

410
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 1: that experience because there'll be lots of other women going

411
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: through exactly the same thing as me each and every day.

412
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 1: About a quarter of the world's female population will be

413
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: menopausal by twenty thirty. However, many will suffer in silence,

414
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 1: feeling uncomfortable disclosing symptoms to a male or younger manager,

415
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: and unlike pregnancy, menopause isn't commonplace in HR policy. Symptoms

416
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: negatively affect three and five women at work, according to

417
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: research by the London based c i p D the

418
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 1: Charted Institute of Personnel and Development. They can include hot flashes,

419
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: night sweats, loss of sleep and mood swings leading to

420
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: embarrassing episodes in front of colleagues, reduced ability to concentrate,

421
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: and erratic behavior. Some women will have no issues. For others,

422
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: menopause can be debilitating. Scores of women will even leave

423
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: the workforce. A survey by healthcare group Booper reckoned almost

424
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 1: a million UK women had quit their jobs because of

425
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: menopausal symptoms. This has an economic cost. I spoke to

426
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: Open University professor Joe brewis one of the authors of

427
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 1: a seventeen UK government report on the issue. She notes

428
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 1: that the biggest gap in gender pay in the UK

429
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: is between men and women in their fifties. There's very

430
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 1: strong evidence that that widening at that particular point is

431
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: because women are leaving work and best guesses a lot

432
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: of that will will have to do with menopause and

433
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 1: then that that gender pay gap, the fact that it's

434
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: so big between men and women in their fifties, also

435
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 1: feeds into a gender pension gap um later in life,

436
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: which at the moment is in excess of Globally. Consulting

437
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: firm Frost and Sullivan estimates that menopause related productivity losses

438
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 1: added to associated healthcare costs amount to more than eight

439
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 1: and ten billion dollars a year. Some companies are taking

440
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 1: action back to live Garfield at seven Trent where we

441
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: introduced menopause training for all managers. We went right across

442
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 1: the workforce and talks about what would make it feel

443
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 1: a bit less awkward to talk about, and we kind

444
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: of realized that if you bring them up at least

445
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: once a week, then it becomes less to be So

446
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 1: since then what we've done is realized that you need

447
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 1: this almost like adjustment passport. So just again almost like

448
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: a like a miniability to contractor your line manager to

449
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: say this is the help that I need. I asked

450
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: the c I p D S. Rachel suff what practical

451
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: steps this could involve. Fransic could be as simple as

452
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: having fans open the window, having good ventilation, good good

453
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: access to washrooms, allowing people to take comfort breaks whenever

454
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 1: they need them. Flexibility is really important as well. Garfield

455
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: says the benefits go beyond the financial. So I think

456
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: the best organizations are made up of diversity, whether it's

457
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: diversity of age, of thought, and of experience. To miss

458
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: to not employ swathes of women in their forty five

459
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: to sixties has got to be a relation, hasn't it,

460
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 1: because otherwise you're missing all of that insight from that

461
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: particular generational category. Deborah Garlic, founder of hen Picked Menopause

462
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: in the Workplace, which was training on the issue, says

463
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: change is underway. The UK is ahead of the rest

464
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: of the world. We believe. We know that. From a

465
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 1: standing start of a fat years ago when there was

466
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: absolutely nothing in the UK, we've made great progress. Menopause

467
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: has even landed on the bank of England's radar. Governor

468
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 1: Andrew Bailey said in April that although previously not considered

469
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: part of the world of work, menopause can no longer

470
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: be ignored. Still, the pandemic and successive lockdowns have kicked

471
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: menopause down the agenda at many corporations, while also creating

472
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: some new challenges for female workers. For some women, working

473
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 1: from home has enabled them to manage their symptoms better.

474
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: For others, the uncertainty has exacerbated the psychological side. In

475
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: female dominated public facing roles. Brewis says, those suffering hot

476
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 1: flashes have faced an added burden, but also because of

477
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 1: the very poor supply of PPU, very often women were

478
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: having to wear PPU that didn't fit them, so drowning

479
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 1: in math head coverings that are designed for men. Economically

480
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: researched by the Resolution Foundation shows the pandemics had a

481
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: worse impact on older working women than any other major

482
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 1: crisis since the nighties. But Garfield is hopeful. So there's

483
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: no doubt that for some sectors it is a game

484
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: of survival and that they the best thing they can

485
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: do right now to look after their workforce is to

486
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: get their business back up and running and able to jobs.

487
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: So that's fair when you're in that mode. There were

488
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: some sectors. I think there are other sectors which the

489
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: power of people has become their greatest asset, And this

490
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: is around protecting people, isn't it? Which is there your

491
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: greatest asset? This is the opportunity to truly push onto

492
00:30:46,800 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: another gear. So that's it for this episode of Stephanomics.

493
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: Tom Orlip will be in the chair next week while

494
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: I take a week off. In the meantime, please rate

495
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: the program and follow as Economics on Twitter for more

496
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics. This episode was produced

497
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 1: by Magnus Hendrickson, with special thanks to Tom Olick, George Magnus,

498
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 1: and Lizzie Burnon. Mike Sasso is executive producer of Stephanomics,

499
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: and the head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levy. M