WEBVTT - Chuck’s Commentary - No Incentive For Congress To End Shutdown + Trump Wants A Violent Confrontation With Protestors 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:07.200 Hello, They're happy Monday, and welcome to another episode of 0:00:07.240 --> 0:00:11.640 the Chuck Podcast. As I have warned you, my moods 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:17.439 are defined many Sundays and Mondays by how the Miami 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:19.880 Hurricanes are doing, so you can only imagine what my 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:23.400 personal mood is in I will get to my football weekend. 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.919 The only quick thing I'll say up top is my 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.120 third straight weekend traveling for football, and let's just say 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:31.920 I hit my first travel glitch. I was on a 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:34.800 nice run there where nothing was happened. I was a 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:37.760 little nervous that this would be glitchy. The government shut 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:41.320 down because we have these poor TSA agents are working 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:43.800 without knowing if they're going to get a paycheck on time, 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:48.160 and air traffic controllers so the idea of sickouts longer lines. 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:51.479 Although that was true, then you hit the old mechanical issue. 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:54.480 I'm in a small airport, so you know there's not 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:58.960 many alternatives when you run into those things. But yeah, 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:02.520 I was pushing the travel karma luck with my three 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:06.680 straight weekends there, so perhaps perhaps I should be lucky 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:10.119 that it wasn't too bad and survivable. Before I get 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.639 and I will share some football. Of course, Today's Monday, 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:16.240 I got my podcast time machine. We're going to go 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:21.759 back to October nineteen ninety one, probably the single most 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:28.200 televised Senate hearing in my lifetime. I might argue it's 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.399 an interesting debate we can have on that, which gets 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:34.640 brings me to the government shutdown. Right, we're starting, We're 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:40.720 getting more polling. I'm gonna it is what we've seen, 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:43.440 and look, I wish there'd be more consistent ways of 0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:47.920 asking these questions. There's no I think on this one, 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:51.320 there's no right way. Do you ask who's to blame 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:54.600 for the shutdown? Do you give three punches or excuse me, 0:01:54.640 --> 0:02:00.400 four punches the Congressional Democrats, Congressional Republicans, Donald Trump, everybody? 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:04.960 Do you do three punches Congressional Democrats, Donald Trump and 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:10.799 Congressional Republicans both for everybody? So there's not a I 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:14.639 could argue both sides of that case. I think for 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:19.400 now it really feels as if, because they're politically sticking together, 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:22.920 you have the congressional Democrats and you have President Trump 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:27.520 and Congressional Republicans. And what you're seeing is, while there 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:33.760 certainly is a slight a slight plurality, and most of 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.520 the polling giving more blame to the Republicans and the Democrats. 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.800 It's not a slam dup. And there's a good chunk 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:40.760 of voters depending on that. 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:42.880 You can find the poll. 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:46.280 Anywhere from twenty five to in the low thirties who 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:49.600 blame everybody or are not sure who to blame. But 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:53.240 that's a pretty big chunk of voters. And so, but 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:56.880 the question in this current situation is who are the 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:02.000 people negotiating listening to King Jeffreyes and Chuck Schumer. Who 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:04.160 do they care most about the voters that are blaming 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:07.080 both sides or the thirty percent of Democrats that are 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:10.400 happy that they're fighting. And who's Donald Trump and the 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:14.880 congressional Republicans worried about the thirty percent that are blaming everybody. 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:17.440 Maybe the thirty percent that are blaming them. By the way, 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.000 about about twenty eight to thirty percent blame their Democrats. 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:23.040 They're mostly Republicans, right, Are they worried about that or 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:26.040 are they worried about the twenty eight to thirty percent 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.560 that blame the Democrats? And essentially, you know their base 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:32.920 and they want to continue to stoke the base. And 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:37.480 my concern is right now that the incentives right, The 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:43.960 incentives are for everybody here to be listening to their bases. 0:03:43.600 --> 0:03:46.120 There is not an incentive here to listen to the 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.320 middle because I think the rock and the hard place. 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:50.760 Here's the problem. 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:55.400 Democrats have the ask, the supposed ask that is on 0:03:55.440 --> 0:04:00.880 the table to end this shutdown, which is some form 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:08.160 of the continuation of subsidies for healthcare Obamacare specifically. It's 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.880 basically Republicans have said, yes, we want to negotiate on this. 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.960 They've not ruled out doing it. They're not agreed on 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.239 you know, would it be just a full extension, would 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:21.080 it be you know, some certain people cut out. But 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:24.960 the point is if the Democrats wanted to say, hey, 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:31.120 we got what we wanted, and more importantly, we've got 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:35.839 another deadline to hold them in check, they can declare 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:42.680 victory right now. But it wouldn't satisfy I understand why 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:45.880 they're not doing it, though I might if they're asking 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.320 my advice, I might do it, and I would do 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:51.479 it because I think right now the weaponization that Russell 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:56.240 Voight is doing, you know, and I do sense that 0:04:56.360 --> 0:05:00.960 some Democrats think, hey, Donald Trump and Russell void Will 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:07.040 will go too far in their sort of targeted cuts 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.919 at Democratic priorities or trying to harm Democratic voters. 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.000 By the way, one of the things. 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:15.279 I'd like to mention, I believe Donald Trump got more 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.320 actual voters out of LA County than he did Idaho. 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.680 So when you're punishing you know that. This is what 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:26.800 really frustrates me about the way these folks think currently 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.880 in Washington is that they want to quote unquote punish 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:30.839 the Blue states. 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:33.760 He's got a lot of supporters in the Blue states. 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:37.200 Some of these blue states are to our most populous 0:05:37.200 --> 0:05:41.920 blue states, and so there's actual So he's punishing. In 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:46.800 some cases, he's punishing his own voters because a majority 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.120 of those voters live in it. Because those voters happen 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.080 to live in a state that voted for Kamala Harris. 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:56.359 You see why this is such frankly bad governance and 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.200 why I think it's self defeating in the long run. 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:00.560 Don't know what. 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:05.360 They're hoping to accomplish that somehow, these Republican voters who 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:09.520 will suffer, you know, due to what a Republican administration 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:13.760 is doing by targeting these blue states. The is the 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.359 goal to get these Republicans to leave the Blue states, 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:21.280 right move to the Red States. I'm not going to 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.000 crawl inside Russell Voyd's head or Steven Miller said, but 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:26.039 I'm not going to say that that probably hasn't crossed 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:30.880 either of their minds. But I do think these little 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:34.800 targeted things, frankly, some of them are probably going to 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:36.840 be illegal, and some of them are probably going to 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:41.520 get not going to be able to survive a court challenge. 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:42.640 But it is. 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:45.719 It is where we are at the moment, and so 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.520 that's the thing, you know that this is where I 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:53.279 still think we're going. I'm on the record and my 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:55.719 new sphere show saying I believe this this shutdown ends 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:59.560 before the end of this week. Now am I going 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:02.760 to stretch and say by Sunday rather than Friday? And 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.880 we'll see. But we are getting to the first missed paycheck, 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.640 which will be coming up basically in the middle of 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.760 the month thirteen fourteen, fifteenth pay period, we'll be coming 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.840 to an end. And that is that is going to be. 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.920 First of all, you'll have a missed paycheck of congressional staffers. 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:21.400 That's an issue. Yes, they're going to get back pay, 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:24.360 but that might be a way to remind their bosses. 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:26.840 I already told you the other day about how the 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.440 last shutdown essentially ended thanks to sickouts of air traffic 0:07:30.440 --> 0:07:34.280 controllers and TSA agents who were not thrilled with the 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:38.200 idea that they were having to work without knowing for 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:40.000 sure when they were going to get paid next. So 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.320 if you look at the actual demands that have been made, 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:51.200 if the Democrats wanted a clear victory, they can. The 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.840 problem is they don't know how to communicate this to 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:58.080 their base. And you know, Schumer's had a tough time 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:02.160 communicating this to the I think he's been not the 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:06.840 best spokesperson to have on this. It's you know, if 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:09.040 you're wondering what Mike Johnson is up to, why he 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.760 decided to keep the house out they're jamming the Senate, 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:13.920 you know in his mind is he doesn't want to 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.760 have to hold another vote. It's very hard to get 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:19.560 all of his Republicans. So he's got a cleed cr 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:22.640 out the door. And it's like, you guys figure it 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:23.320 out in the Senate. 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:28.040 And so by staying out. 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:31.360 Of town, he accomplishes a couple of things. One, he 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.880 makes sure his members aren't around where reporters can find them, 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:37.000 and they end up saying dumb things that get them 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.400 in political trouble. So he's kind of doing it to 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:45.040 protect the messaging here. There are just fewer wild card 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.240 members of Congress, so you know, strategically, I think I 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.360 understand where he's coming from. But mostly this is about, hey, 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:54.440 this is a Senate issue, and you guys have to 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:59.199 handle this pure and simple and really there are you know, 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:01.840 this is the thing. There are two ways this could 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:03.880 get resolved in the Senate. The other thing is Republicans 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:05.560 can end this tomorrow. If they really wanted to open 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:07.720 the government, they'd have to get rid of the filibuster. 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:13.600 But they have fifty votes to do this. That would 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:17.480 be consequential. It is pretty clear John Thune has said 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:20.760 he doesn't want to go there at all. For what 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:25.839 it's worth, there's a small little growing I don't want 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:31.560 to say it's disgruntledment among Senate Republicans with Thune, but 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:34.520 there's a bunch of Senate Republicans that wish Thune could 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:35.760 protect them more. 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:37.840 The filibuster. 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:40.880 Obviously, sticking with the filibuster is one way to protect them, 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.600 But what do I mean by protect them? There are 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:46.800 votes that they have to cast publicly in support of 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:49.000 the MAGA movement or Donald Trump that they don't want 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:51.559 to have to cast. Three of them, in particular, were 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:55.600 really tough for them to cast those confirmation votes for, 0:09:56.120 --> 0:10:00.640 in particular for Pete hag Seth and Bobby Kennedy Jr. 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:05.240 And that is something where there are some Republican centers, 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.480 not all, not a majority, but a couple who think 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:10.840 Fune could have done more to protect them from having 0:10:10.840 --> 0:10:13.480 to make that vote and could have killed it right, 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:17.240 that he could have worked behind the scenes and done that. 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.800 I'm not sure to be fair to to to to 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:25.079 John Thune on this one. You know he was he 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:29.400 he got the job despite mega skepticism of him. I 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:31.480 think deep down there's a whole bunch of folks in 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.920 magaworld who know he's not really one of them. And 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:37.280 he did have Rick Scott sitting out there who was 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:40.960 sort of waiting to pounce, And there could have easily 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:44.240 been a sort of a Grasstops uprising on the on 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:46.800 the in the in the sort of Internet mega movement 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:51.000 that could have made Thune's life miserable had he held 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:54.120 up some of these confirmations. So I'm not sure it 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:57.040 was it's as easy said and done, but there is 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:01.920 just you're starting to see fatigue among republic Senate Republicans. 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.559 The terriff issue is really starting to take a toll, 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.560 particularly in the Midwestern states, and the farm guys are 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:12.680 really struggling with this. In fact, I've got a couple 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:14.360 of little updates I'm gonna give you later as soon 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:16.480 as I'm done with the with with where I think 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:20.000 this government shutdown is going. But at the end of 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:23.000 the day, that the Democratic dilemma really is, it does 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:27.840 come down to they're gonna they're gonna have to disappoint, 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:29.839 They're gonna they're gonna cave here at some point, right 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:30.360 they have to. 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.000 They have to. They have to sort of get to yes. 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:40.080 And you know, if health if Obamacare subsidies, and I 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:44.040 guess this is what they have to admit if they 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:48.839 don't say yes to the Republicans agreement to basically saying yeah, 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:51.360 we're willing to have a negotiation on this. Is this 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:53.440 really why they're doing this or are they doing this 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:57.120 because there's some pent up frustration on the left that 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:02.800 the Democrats have shown no ability to slow Trump down. Right, 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.200 the courts are not really you know, the courts have 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.280 done better than most. Right we have what's going on 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:12.080 in organ right now, that's not an insignificant moment. And 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:20.000 Steven Miller's bizarre anti unconstitutional reaction to this, to attack 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:24.720 a Trump appointed judge by the way, as an insurrectionist. 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:27.760 Is just shocking. 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.440 I know, we're not we never get shocked anymore by 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.120 some of the language that Stephen Miller uses on social media, 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:37.680 but it should be quite alarming to the entire judiciary, 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.840 and it's not helpful, and he ought to be actually 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:44.079 read the opinion apologizes for digressing on this. You got 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:47.600 to read the opinion from the judge in Oregon. Essentially 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:51.640 the judges saying Donald Trump's words are don't match what 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:53.600 you guys are saying in your court filings and what 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:56.960 you're claiming here, and essentially what he's saying is undermining 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:01.080 the entire rationale that Stephen Miller was in venting to 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:06.760 try to get the military in the National Guard in 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:10.320 some of these cities, in Portland in particular. So I 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:15.880 don't it sort of is amusing to me that Miller 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.920 doesn't realize his own words are also making an appeal 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.360 that much harder to win. Because we see what the 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:27.720 real motivation is. I mean, they are trying to incite 0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:33.360 a confrontation. They want a violent confrontation between protesters, ICE 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:38.080 agents and the National Guard. It appears that's what they're 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:43.200 looking for, and they're using the ruse of you know 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:49.520 it is really disconcerting and it's you know one. It 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:54.040 feels like they're looking for any excuse to just ramp 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.160 up enforcement, and that is something we ought to be 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:57.080 concerned about here. 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:01.679 We need to have peaceful protesting. 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.600 We shouldn't be physically attacking ICE agents, but ICE agents 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:09.679 ought to be acting in a constitutional method. I do 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:13.480 think the face masks are menacing and it has created 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:18.760 a very untenable situation. Everybody needs to ratchet things down 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.200 here and we need to turn the temperature down. This 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.320 Portland judge was trying to do that, but it does 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.680 not seem as if that was the message that was 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:31.280 received there. But going back to the shutdown politics here, 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:36.240 what's happening in Oregon and what's happening there is also 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:41.960 having an impact on the frustrated progressive base that feels 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:48.880 as if the Democrats aren't fighting enough, and so if 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.960 the government has been shut down over Obamacare subsidies. Well, 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:57.920 there's a path here, But is this really why Democrats 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:02.200 force this confrontation? It's it is starting to look that 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:07.000 obviously that I think it's obvious now this was what's 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.440 the best thing you could say to swing voters as 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:12.080 to why you shut down the government? Oh, Obamacare subsidies. 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.240 But that is not what the progressive base is interested. 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:22.080 And sure they'll certainly be happy that if this is done, 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.280 but it's not going to be seen as a victory. 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:30.120 And in fact, I've seen some Democrats argue, leave it 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:35.640 to congressional Democrats to help Republicans minimize their problems in 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:41.680 the election year, meaning by by advance by agreeing to 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:45.080 an extension of Obamacare subsidies, with the Republicans forcing them 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:48.600 to do this. Now you're saying you're taking the issue 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.240 off the table for twenty twenty six. But this of 0:15:51.280 --> 0:15:54.520 course gets to are you there to govern or are 0:15:54.560 --> 0:16:00.120 you there to pundicize and just politicize everything? Right, And 0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:01.840 that gets back to the same thing I was talking 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:03.360 about the other day, which is the adult in the 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:06.040 room vote. All right, maybe the adult in the room 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:07.880 voter is not a base Republican voter. And it is 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:12.080 not a base Democratic voter, but the voter that's looking 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:16.600 for the adult party is the one that says, oh, okay, 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:21.240 use this moment to do something that helps everybody, versus no, 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.800 take advantage of this moment, exploit it so that you 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:26.320 can gain political power. 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:27.600 Which is what the base wants. 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:31.200 By the way, both bases want, they want their leaders 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.440 to exploit situations to. 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:34.520 Get more power. 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.280 And that is arguably the fundamental divide we're living in 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.480 right now in American politics, and it goes back to 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:47.480 the incentive structures that elected officials have with the voters 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:53.800 that they have to deal with. 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Their fee is free. 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:58.480 Unless they win. Let me move on to a few 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:02.920 other items from the weekend. By the way, I had 0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:08.840 somebody right in to the my LinkedIn toodcast profile to 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:16.240 say they thought I should. They wanted me to call 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.480 my hot takes hot totty Takes, and I thought, well, 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:23.840 my problem is is that I'm not very good at 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.639 like the thirty second hot take, right, I'm not very 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.800 good at giving you the stephen A. Smith bs argument 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:33.080 of the day, right, the invented argument about the Dallas Cowboys, 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:33.600 good or bad? 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:33.840 Right? 0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:37.240 So it is it is sort of, it is sort 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:41.439 of not not my favorite thing. But there's there's a 0:18:41.560 --> 0:18:43.760 three headlines I want to get to before we get 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.240 to the interview with David Holt. One is we are 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:49.879 really now starting to see particularly this is the beginning 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.840 of a new quarter financially right for just about any 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:58.399 sort of business, which means this is a big period 0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.560 where we're going to see increased to There was an 0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:03.840 important article in the Financial Times that I didn't want 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:08.679 people to miss. This is based on data from the 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:13.560 Bureau of Labor Statistics in the six months going through 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.920 August from August in the six months previous ending in August, 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:21.479 so far, prices for audio equipment have risen by fourteen percent. 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:26.560 Prices for dresses are up eight percent. Tools, hardware and 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:31.080 other supplies in that under that umbrella are already have 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.600 risen by five percent, because most of those goods are important. 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:36.960 And what happened was you had a lot of small 0:19:36.960 --> 0:19:41.159 businesses and large businesses by products before the tariffs kicked in. 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:44.520 They built up some inventories, but those inventories are now gone, 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:47.040 and so now we're starting to see the price increases 0:19:47.040 --> 0:19:51.520 are going in starting in October. For instance, Ashley Furniture, 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:54.159 so you've probably heard of Ashley Fern. They're the world's 0:19:54.200 --> 0:20:00.719 largest furniture manufacturer. They've already they put a notice in 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:03.760 an industry publication called home News. Now again this is 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:06.520 a courtesy of my friends at the Financial Times, that 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:08.560 they plan to raise prices for a majority of their 0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:13.919 products from three and a half to twelve percent starting yesterday. Okay, 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:16.080 so this is what I mean when in the sort 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:20.280 of the quarter kicks in and you're going to see 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:23.480 new decisions on pricing. And this is where the tariffs 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:29.040 get put in. The car parts retailer AutoZone, they already 0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:32.119 have indicated to aid lists that there's probably going to 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.840 be more price rises as the full impact of tariffs 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:38.040 go in. I've told you about coffee prices. They continue 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:42.879 to surge because of the fifty of the fifty percent 0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.720 tariffs that have been applied to Brazil over the president's 0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:51.840 obsession with Despite proclaiming that they're American first and they're 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:53.960 not going to get involved in anybody else's politics. They 0:20:53.960 --> 0:20:56.199 don't get involved in anybody else's politics unless they care 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:58.760 about everybody else's politics in this case because of the 0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:03.080 whole Bolsonnaro situation. There and here's something where there's these 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:07.080 hidden tariff costs in everything that you have at the 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:13.840 grocery store. Tariff's on imported tin plate steel is also 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:18.240 driving up the price of food cans. So even if 0:21:18.760 --> 0:21:24.800 the product the progresso soup, the Goya beans, even if 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:29.680 the food itself is produced here, the tin can, the 0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:33.520 can that is in your grocery store costs more and 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:36.160 they've had to raise the price of that. 0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:39.560 It is. 0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:42.480 And I have one other thing where we have a 0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:45.080 tariff impact, and that is the issue of soybeans. And 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:47.360 this comes from the Lincoln Journal Star of the weekend. 0:21:49.800 --> 0:21:53.800 They have had a fifty two percent drop. This was 0:21:53.880 --> 0:22:01.840 just through June, Okay, Nebraska soybean experts, we're down fifteen percent. Overall, 0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:05.400 there's been a drop in exports to China of fifty 0:22:05.560 --> 0:22:09.280 two percent. This is why the farmers are reeling right now, 0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.199 particularly soybean farmers. And guess what, you grow soybeans all 0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:14.639 over the country. So this is a lot of states 0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:17.080 that are being impacted by this. This is why Donald 0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:21.960 Trump's talking about some sort of rebate. But do keep 0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:25.760 in mind as the right tries to call tries to 0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:31.280 take this the Democratic Socialist Johan Mamdani and essentially use 0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:35.080 it to define the Democratic Party as socialists. The person 0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:40.920 executing socialistic like policies right now is Donald Trump right 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.080 in order, you know, he's you know, basically having to 0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:48.600 pay farmers to to for crops that are not going 0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:53.840 to get used. Right. But that is that's government support. 0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:57.280 That is a form you know, by any other name. 0:22:58.119 --> 0:23:00.560 Let's see, if it were a democratic administry doing this, 0:23:00.640 --> 0:23:05.919 you would hear some conservatives crying socialism on this. And 0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:08.080 of course I haven't gotten into Intel and some of 0:23:08.119 --> 0:23:10.080 the other stuff that we've already see that there is 0:23:10.800 --> 0:23:14.840 certainly we've heard. I mean, the Ken Griffin, the head 0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:17.640 of the large, the large private equity fund, the Citadel, 0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:21.040 he's gotten really vocal about this. He does not like 0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:24.280 what the Trump administration has been doing, how quickly they 0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:27.160 get involved in private enterprise and sort of put their 0:23:27.160 --> 0:23:29.760 finger on the scales, picking winners and losers, whether it's 0:23:29.920 --> 0:23:36.480 who gets to own TikTok intel, what Navidia is doing 0:23:36.560 --> 0:23:40.240 with chips to China and things like this. So it 0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:43.920 is again as we start name calling everybody doing the 0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:46.440 socialists and the fascists and all this left right name 0:23:46.480 --> 0:23:52.679 calling just realize on the issue of socialism, Donald Trump 0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:55.359 has his own form of it that he is executing 0:23:55.440 --> 0:23:59.879 right now. Socialism for the business world, socialism for con 0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:04.200 stituency groups that he believes are important to him. On 0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:13.600 that front, two other notes out there. One, Japan is 0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:18.480 going to have its first female prime minister. I do 0:24:18.520 --> 0:24:24.000 think it's worth noting that the first woman to break 0:24:24.080 --> 0:24:27.000 through and break that glass ceiling is somebody who's more conservative, 0:24:27.080 --> 0:24:30.000 somebody who's more hawkish, somebody who's on the right, somebody 0:24:30.040 --> 0:24:34.360 who's feeling to conservatives, somebody who calls Maggie Thatcher one 0:24:34.400 --> 0:24:40.160