1
00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,239
Speaker 1: Hello, They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of

2
00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,480
Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. It is October first, and apparently what

3
00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,640
Speaker 1: that means. It's October first, twenty twenty five. Do you

4
00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:17,680
Speaker 1: know if your government's open? Well, the answer is, there

5
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:21,520
Speaker 1: are portions of the government not open today. What does

6
00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,040
Speaker 1: it mean? Well, you heard, if you heard my last

7
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,560
Speaker 1: monologue about this, you know this is a manufactured moment.

8
00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:35,440
Speaker 1: This is a created political a manufactured political drama based

9
00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:41,720
Speaker 1: on legal interpretations of two Justice departments that go back

10
00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:45,600
Speaker 1: to the Carter and Reagan era, and a whole bunch

11
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,400
Speaker 1: of members of Congress who claim they don't like these

12
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,160
Speaker 1: shutdowns but have refused to pass legislation that actually would

13
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:57,720
Speaker 1: make these showdowns moot. So I'm not going to bother

14
00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 1: to rehash that, but it really bothers me how that

15
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,160
Speaker 1: New York Times did a story about sort of, oh,

16
00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,920
Speaker 1: we've had fifty years of this polarizing and sort of

17
00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,480
Speaker 1: didn't sort of glossed over the fact that this is

18
00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,840
Speaker 1: simply an interpretation. There's no law in the Constitution that

19
00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,240
Speaker 1: says the government is open or closed on October first,

20
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,000
Speaker 1: depending on when you pass appropriations bills. This is essentially

21
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,760
Speaker 1: a decision that people in power made in order to

22
00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:29,679
Speaker 1: create a point of drama or leverage, apparently for no

23
00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 1: particular good that's come from it. Right, this has just

24
00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,960
Speaker 1: been a disaster. And I think this is the challenge

25
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,800
Speaker 1: that Democrats have being the instigators of this, which is

26
00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 1: for my entire adult lifetime, it has been the Republicans

27
00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,040
Speaker 1: that have been the instigators of the shutdown we've had these.

28
00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,840
Speaker 1: It was when there was a Democratic president that we

29
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,120
Speaker 1: had it in the nineties, democratic president, when we had

30
00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,320
Speaker 1: it during Obama. It is with Trump. That's the first

31
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,840
Speaker 1: time we've had this with a Republican now, the first

32
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,680
Speaker 1: time it was Republican. This is now the second time

33
00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,960
Speaker 1: we've had a shutdown with Trump as president and Republicans

34
00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 1: in charge of both the House and the Senate now

35
00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 1: because of the filibuster. And I'm going to get to

36
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 1: that in a minute, because you got to ask yourself,

37
00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:19,360
Speaker 1: what if this is what ends the filibuster. I'm fascinated

38
00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 1: to see what the reaction would be among some of

39
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,679
Speaker 1: the left who've been agitating for getting rid of the

40
00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,640
Speaker 1: philibuster for some time. Imagine if this is the trigger

41
00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:30,720
Speaker 1: for it, just something to put a pin in that right,

42
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 1: let's just file this away for a second. But we're here,

43
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 1: and I think the issue and it's reflective. I've got

44
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,000
Speaker 1: some pull numbers I want to go through that are

45
00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,320
Speaker 1: actually well timed, sort of end of September polls. They're

46
00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:49,320
Speaker 1: well timed. But they we get at this question of shutdowns.

47
00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,359
Speaker 1: And you know, the Democrats have messaged for twenty years

48
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,480
Speaker 1: the shutdowns are bad, and now here they are on

49
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,000
Speaker 1: the other side saying passing up the opportunity for a

50
00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 1: clean of temporary six week extension to keep the government

51
00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:09,040
Speaker 1: open because you know they want their And this is

52
00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:14,080
Speaker 1: I said this before. I think tactically they made a

53
00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:19,799
Speaker 1: mistake not accepting this continuing resolution to November. I think

54
00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,440
Speaker 1: they would be better off having this showdown over the

55
00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:27,280
Speaker 1: exact same issue healthcare subsidies, the Obamacare subsidies. They'd have

56
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:35,280
Speaker 1: been better off, I think starting that fight in November

57
00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,640
Speaker 1: after the twenty twenty five elections in Virginia, New Jersey,

58
00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:43,000
Speaker 1: New York, et cetera. But here's you know, here's what's interesting.

59
00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 1: So the time says this new pulling out and let

60
00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 1: me read you one of a couple of the questions

61
00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,240
Speaker 1: that had to do with the with a shutdown, Who

62
00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,240
Speaker 1: would you blame if there is a shutdown? The Democrats

63
00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,760
Speaker 1: in Congress, Donald Trump, and the Republicans in Congress, both

64
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,839
Speaker 1: or both parties equally or all entities equally. Now they

65
00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,119
Speaker 1: combined Republicans and Donald Trump into one column. There's other

66
00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,760
Speaker 1: polling out there that has put Democrats in Congress, Republicans

67
00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,640
Speaker 1: in Congress, and Donald Trump as separate three you know,

68
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 1: three categories. So essentially, when you start to see it

69
00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,400
Speaker 1: that way, if you separate it out, more people blame

70
00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,160
Speaker 1: Democrats in Congress than Trump. But if you combined Republicans

71
00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,440
Speaker 1: in Congress and Trump, you see where I'm going. But

72
00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,920
Speaker 1: there's essentially a third, a third and a third right.

73
00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: A third are saying it's one party's fault, a third

74
00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,040
Speaker 1: are saying it's the other party's fault, and a third

75
00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 1: just blame everybody type of mindset. But I thought this

76
00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,200
Speaker 1: was interesting. They just asked a straight up question, which

77
00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,960
Speaker 1: statement comes closer to you view your view, even if

78
00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,840
Speaker 1: neither is exactly right. The Democrats should shut down the

79
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,200
Speaker 1: government if their demands are not met. Twenty seven percent

80
00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,240
Speaker 1: agreed with that statement. The Democrats should not shut down

81
00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,400
Speaker 1: the government even if their demands are not met. Sixty

82
00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:03,680
Speaker 1: five percent agreed with that statement. That's the uphill battle

83
00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,880
Speaker 1: here that I think Democrats are dealing with because you've

84
00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:13,640
Speaker 1: got you've got a sort of a you've got a

85
00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,279
Speaker 1: confluence of things that have happened over the last twenty

86
00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:21,719
Speaker 1: years that frankly, have conditioned the public about shutdowns. One

87
00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,760
Speaker 1: is they're not that serious. I explained this to you

88
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:28,160
Speaker 1: in the last episode. They exempt social Security, they exempt

89
00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,799
Speaker 1: military pay, they exempt TSA, They're not going to disrupt

90
00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:36,160
Speaker 1: the flights, They exempt food inspectors, they exempt so many

91
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,200
Speaker 1: things that it's sort of like, all right, it's it's

92
00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:44,679
Speaker 1: sort of the operational part of government that matters, matters

93
00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,559
Speaker 1: a lot. People will notice over time when those parts

94
00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,840
Speaker 1: of government are shuttered, but they don't notice in the

95
00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 1: immediate right. So anything that the public might notice immediately,

96
00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,160
Speaker 1: politicians over the years have tried to sort of, you know,

97
00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,880
Speaker 1: shield that right. So that's how you've had these military

98
00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,320
Speaker 1: gets paid. Back pay for federal government workers is now guaranteed.

99
00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,119
Speaker 1: You know, you have all these little things in there

100
00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:13,480
Speaker 1: that are done to sort of mitigate the consequences of

101
00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,320
Speaker 1: a shutdown in the moment but as I've said, what

102
00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:20,720
Speaker 1: it's done is lowered the consequences for a shutdown. If

103
00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:25,280
Speaker 1: the consequences were much higher, as in Social Security checks

104
00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:30,160
Speaker 1: don't go out tomorrow morning, heart stop, military doesn't get

105
00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:34,800
Speaker 1: paid next Friday, heart stop. I promise you there'd be

106
00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:38,320
Speaker 1: more urgency to this. But they took all of that out,

107
00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,960
Speaker 1: which is again, and so the public has gotten used

108
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:47,760
Speaker 1: to it that these shutdowns are annoying, their distractions. You know,

109
00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:52,080
Speaker 1: they over time impact the economy negatively. They're not good,

110
00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:56,000
Speaker 1: they slow down. I told you all the wasted government money,

111
00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,240
Speaker 1: wasted time for people, particularly in your fear in a

112
00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:03,360
Speaker 1: public private defense contractors have time wasted. They still get

113
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,160
Speaker 1: paid but and the government will eventually remburse him, but

114
00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,720
Speaker 1: they don't do the actual work. And this could be

115
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,040
Speaker 1: this could be, could be a few weeks, could be longer.

116
00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,160
Speaker 1: So I don't know what the exit ramp is here

117
00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:24,120
Speaker 1: for anybody. It does seem as if the Trump administration

118
00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,680
Speaker 1: would love to try this out. And the threats that

119
00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 1: Trump has made actually showcase an issue that I wish

120
00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,320
Speaker 1: more voters cared about, which is Donald Trump does not

121
00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,760
Speaker 1: believe he should govern for people that didn't vote for him,

122
00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,160
Speaker 1: and if anything, he wants to punish anybody by getting

123
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:47,560
Speaker 1: rid of any program that the government funds that doesn't

124
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:52,520
Speaker 1: benefit him somehow politically. And he's essentially telegraphed this. He goes,

125
00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to be able to reverse some things that

126
00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,480
Speaker 1: they're never going to be able to get back. He

127
00:07:56,640 --> 00:08:01,480
Speaker 1: is almost excited about the opportunity to govern with a

128
00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:06,360
Speaker 1: political lens and a harsh one at that. Next week,

129
00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:08,480
Speaker 1: I'm going to have an interview with the mayor of

130
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:10,679
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City. But I want to give you a little

131
00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:13,280
Speaker 1: preview of something he said, which is, this is the

132
00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:17,119
Speaker 1: consequences of these partisan primaries and the way we nominate people.

133
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 1: If you're if you have to answer to everybody all

134
00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,760
Speaker 1: the time in your voters, if you're a member of

135
00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,600
Speaker 1: Congress and you're facing all voters in a primary rather

136
00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:31,960
Speaker 1: than just this small slice of obsessed partisans, you're going

137
00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,960
Speaker 1: to have a different incentive of who If you have

138
00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:36,800
Speaker 1: to win over a middle of the road voter to

139
00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:40,400
Speaker 1: get a nomination, to get to the second uh, to

140
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,400
Speaker 1: get to actual general election, well you're going to comport

141
00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,680
Speaker 1: yourself a hell of a lot differently than if all

142
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,600
Speaker 1: you have to do is deal with a partisan set

143
00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:53,480
Speaker 1: of voters. And you know, for him, it was his

144
00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,760
Speaker 1: explanation of my mayor's or the least polarized executive that

145
00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,959
Speaker 1: you have in the country that all across the country

146
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,920
Speaker 1: where where the Republican mayors or Democratic mayors, almost all

147
00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,200
Speaker 1: of them treat a pothole as a pothole. They don't

148
00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:09,679
Speaker 1: look to see what the precinct, how which way the

149
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,480
Speaker 1: precinct voted before deciding to fill the pothole. Now I

150
00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,000
Speaker 1: know that they're back in the days of the machine

151
00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,440
Speaker 1: political machines of Chicago and New York, there was always

152
00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,640
Speaker 1: rumors that, you know, the daily wards got their potholes filled,

153
00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:23,600
Speaker 1: and if you weren't a daily guy, you didn't get

154
00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:27,000
Speaker 1: your pothole filled. But you can't get away with that

155
00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:28,880
Speaker 1: being a mayor of a city these days, and you

156
00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,760
Speaker 1: don't do that. But it is remarkable to me how

157
00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,079
Speaker 1: often we're seeing some partisans governed this way as governors

158
00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 1: and as president. And it's particularly a hallmark of magga

159
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:46,079
Speaker 1: driven politicians because the whole owned the Libs like it's ok,

160
00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,080
Speaker 1: you know, we're if if we're suffer, if we all suffer,

161
00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,920
Speaker 1: and it makes the Libs cry, then it's a worthy

162
00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 1: cause to do anyway, that's sort of this mindset at

163
00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,920
Speaker 1: times on the own the libs mentality, and so it's

164
00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:02,520
Speaker 1: a it is this is the fact that Trump's going

165
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,400
Speaker 1: to do this. But the point is this gets to

166
00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,440
Speaker 1: sort of all the times you have confrontations with Trump.

167
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:10,840
Speaker 1: And don't get me wrong, I do think that that

168
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:16,040
Speaker 1: Trump respects a fight er more than he respects a capitulator.

169
00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:21,360
Speaker 1: So I do think that in some ways, if if

170
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,319
Speaker 1: the more resistance they put up in certain areas, that

171
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,000
Speaker 1: in a weird way, Trump will will will respect that

172
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:34,559
Speaker 1: because he's a he likes to be resistant, but he's

173
00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,920
Speaker 1: also got a higher tolerance for this pain. Right. He

174
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:42,240
Speaker 1: doesn't care how the mainstream media coverage goes. In his mind,

175
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,880
Speaker 1: if if a major you know, if the New York

176
00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,880
Speaker 1: Times polling is showing it somehow it's Republican's fault. He

177
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,160
Speaker 1: sees that as a political asset, not a political liability.

178
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: And you know, as long as his base is happy,

179
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,160
Speaker 1: he believes his politics are doing well. And you sort

180
00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,440
Speaker 1: of see that his base is happy, but the rest

181
00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:04,280
Speaker 1: of the country is pretty sour in his leadership. This

182
00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,160
Speaker 1: latest New York Times Santa Pol shows he is basically

183
00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,080
Speaker 1: at his presidential average. He's sitting at forty three percent

184
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,440
Speaker 1: job approval in this bowl. It's about what he was

185
00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,760
Speaker 1: the last time. It's about what he was for just

186
00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,560
Speaker 1: about the entire first term that he had from seventeen

187
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:24,920
Speaker 1: to twenty. You know, he's never he's never really sniffed

188
00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,760
Speaker 1: fifty percent. And in order to do that, you'd have

189
00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,680
Speaker 1: to have at least fifty percent of independence happy. And

190
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:36,680
Speaker 1: that's the problem he's having. Is that independence or more

191
00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:42,640
Speaker 1: sour about his presidency? Then you know they look they don't.

192
00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:44,960
Speaker 1: They're not as they're not as sour at his presidency

193
00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,400
Speaker 1: as Democrats, but they're closer to looking like Democrats than

194
00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,920
Speaker 1: they do Republicans when it comes to this. So I'll

195
00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,199
Speaker 1: fully confess here, I have no idea when this ends,

196
00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:02,840
Speaker 1: or how this sends, whether in what kind of stomach

197
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,240
Speaker 1: senate Democrats are going to have for how long are

198
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:11,160
Speaker 1: they going to go on this? When I think about

199
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: who the seven votes would be, we know Fetterman's one,

200
00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:20,920
Speaker 1: Jeene Shaheen could be two, she's retiring. Would Tina Smith

201
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:25,320
Speaker 1: be three as a retiring senator? I don't know. Uh

202
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,880
Speaker 1: as as a third one, Gary Peters, he could be right,

203
00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,000
Speaker 1: you see where I'm going here, that some of them

204
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:32,920
Speaker 1: who are not going to be in ballots could could

205
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,680
Speaker 1: do this, uh, if they so chose to. But I

206
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:39,079
Speaker 1: don't know if there's seven that are that are ready

207
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,680
Speaker 1: to break completely. But ask me again in a week,

208
00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,840
Speaker 1: ask me again in two weeks. How aggressive does Russell Voight,

209
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 1: the O and B director get and trying to potentially

210
00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:58,880
Speaker 1: fire furloughed government employees? Is it? Is it aggressive? So?

211
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:03,199
Speaker 1: I think some of the reaction and some of the

212
00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,400
Speaker 1: stiffness of the spine. How stiff will the democratic spine

213
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:11,400
Speaker 1: be depends I think on how aggressive omb is in

214
00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:16,520
Speaker 1: using the shutdown to maybe reorient government permanently in some

215
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:21,600
Speaker 1: form or another. So we're, you know, like with many

216
00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:27,680
Speaker 1: things with Trump urban uncharted territory, unlike the previous shutdown.

217
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:32,920
Speaker 1: With Trump, he's got a he's got two aids who

218
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,720
Speaker 1: know their way around the bureaucracy. Russell Void's been thinking

219
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,360
Speaker 1: about this for years as the author of Project twenty

220
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,960
Speaker 1: twenty five, and Stephen Miller understands how to manipulate the

221
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:46,679
Speaker 1: bureaucracy in ways that are pretty much second to none

222
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:50,800
Speaker 1: of any presidential aid I've ever covered, regardless of what

223
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:57,440
Speaker 1: you think of his politics, he's extraordinarily knowledgeable on how

224
00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:04,040
Speaker 1: to on the co essentially the legal code, and on

225
00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:08,559
Speaker 1: the ability to sort of tinker with the federal government.

226
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 1: We saw it during the pandemic, how we used it

227
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 1: to shut down the border, came up with sort of

228
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:20,600
Speaker 1: some interesting, unique ways in rationales to do it. And

229
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:25,760
Speaker 1: so you know, that's that to me, is the uncharted

230
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,520
Speaker 1: territory that we're entering and that we don't know a

231
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 1: lot about, and we don't know how aggressive and where

232
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:37,800
Speaker 1: this has headed. But I think if there's a big

233
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,320
Speaker 1: danger for the Democrats besides what I just outlined with

234
00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,320
Speaker 1: the aggressiveness of Trump, the other one is whether the

235
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:49,120
Speaker 1: public is just paying attention, whether even the activists, whether

236
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:53,360
Speaker 1: this is turning into action, whether it does fire up folks,

237
00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:57,040
Speaker 1: or if there's sort of an exhaustion that comes with this,

238
00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,320
Speaker 1: because again, the Democrats have never been on this side

239
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,000
Speaker 1: of a government shutdown, and we're going to see a

240
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 1: lot of conservative media sites re treading all these quotes

241
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:14,239
Speaker 1: from the Chuck Schumers over the years of Nancy Pelosi's

242
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,280
Speaker 1: talking about clean CRS, government shutdowns, are bad, they should

243
00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:23,200
Speaker 1: never happen, etc. Etc. Etc. And that could take the

244
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:27,040
Speaker 1: toll as well, and how much of all of that

245
00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:29,760
Speaker 1: gets traction. But this gets it to a larger issue,

246
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 1: which is actually what I tackle. By the way, it's

247
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,640
Speaker 1: worth noting the Pew Center came out with some new

248
00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 1: poll polling that happened to hit today, and what they

249
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 1: had is they had some favorable unfavorable ratings on the

250
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:47,160
Speaker 1: congressional leaders. And what's interesting is just how unpopular Chuck Schumer.

251
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,280
Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer is the new Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell was

252
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,240
Speaker 1: always the most unpopular of the four political leaders when

253
00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 1: it was McConnell, Schumer, Pelosi, and McCarthy. McConnell was always

254
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 1: far and away the most unpopular because McConnell was the

255
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 1: only one that had negative ratings among Democrats and negative

256
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 1: ratings among Republicans. Well, Chuck Schumer, welcome to Mitch McConnell country.

257
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,840
Speaker 1: He not only has negative ratings among Republicans, but he

258
00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 1: has a negative ratings just narrowly, thirty nine unfavorable thirty

259
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:24,840
Speaker 1: five favorable among Democrats. By the way, Jeffrey's numbers are

260
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:29,000
Speaker 1: not bad overall, he's got good numbers among Democrats two

261
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,760
Speaker 1: to one on that favorable rating overall. That allows him

262
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: to have a thirty to twenty four, so he's he's

263
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 1: got some he's got some room here. He's sort of

264
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 1: got a net positive view, which is rare for a gouvernile.

265
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: John Thune, the least known of the of the of

266
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 1: the current set of four, also has a net positive.

267
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,120
Speaker 1: He's narrowly net negative. Je excuse me, I read this wrong.

268
00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 1: Jeffreys is narrowly net negative. But his positive rating with

269
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 1: Republicans is with Democrats, is better than for instance, thunes

270
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 1: p a a rating is among Republicans. Sorry for confusing

271
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,119
Speaker 1: that there a little bit, but the real headline of

272
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 1: this is Chuck Schumer is unpopped, more unpopular among Democrats

273
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 1: than he is popular among Democrats. And that also means

274
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 1: he's going to be really resistant to caving because he's

275
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,199
Speaker 1: really afraid of the base. It's the base that's the

276
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 1: most angry with Schumer. He sort of mismanaged the communication

277
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 1: of the first one. I think he made the right call,

278
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 1: but he spent a day talking up a shutdown and

279
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 1: then completely reversed course, which is what really I think

280
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,480
Speaker 1: angered the left. He sort of he led him on

281
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,800
Speaker 1: and then he yanked the carpet from underneath them. I

282
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,440
Speaker 1: think on this one, he's going to want to stick

283
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 1: it out longer. Well put it this way, If he's

284
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,880
Speaker 1: interested in running again and he's up in twenty twenty eight,

285
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,720
Speaker 1: he's going to probably care more about what the base

286
00:17:56,800 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 1: thinks of this shutdown than what swing voters think of this.

287
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,560
Speaker 1: Show them. But this gets to the sort of larger

288
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 1: dilemma that I think democrats face, and it's the subject

289
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 1: of my substack column. I encourage you to go subscribe.

290
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,680
Speaker 1: I don't charge any it's all free. I don't charge

291
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,680
Speaker 1: for this podcast. It's all free. I do not want

292
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 1: to be captive to an audience. I don't want to

293
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 1: be captive to a paywall. I think that has been

294
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:26,680
Speaker 1: that is that becomes self fulfilling. I am trying to

295
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:31,360
Speaker 1: swerve away from that way of building an independent media operation.

296
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,360
Speaker 1: So it is free and I'm not going to triculator

297
00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 1: and charge it. Okay, the one place where you do

298
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 1: have to pay to go check out what I'm doing

299
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 1: is new Sphere. It's a unique app and there's some

300
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,919
Speaker 1: terrific journalists there that do deserve the subscription revenue. So

301
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,720
Speaker 1: I view that as myself helping a whole bunch of

302
00:18:49,240 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 1: independent journalism. There's a reason results matter more than promises,

303
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 1: just like there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's

304
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 1: largest injury law firm. For the last thirty five years,

305
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 1: they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for more than half

306
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,879
Speaker 1: a million clients. It includes cases where insurance companies offered

307
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 1: next to nothing, just hoping to get away with paying

308
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 1: as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan fought back ended

309
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 1: up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania, one client was

310
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:26,280
Speaker 1: awarded twenty six million dollars, which was a staggering forty

311
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 1: times the amount that the insurance company originally offered. That

312
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: original offer six hundred and fifty thousand dollars twenty six million,

313
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,199
Speaker 1: six hundred and fifty thousand dollars. So with more than

314
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 1: one thousand lawyers across the country, they know how to

315
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 1: deliver for everyday people. If you're injured, you need a lawyer,

316
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 1: you need somebody to get your back. Check out for

317
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 1: Thepeople dot Com, Slash podcast or Dow Pound Law Pound

318
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 1: five to two nine law on your cell phone. And

319
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 1: remember all law firms are not the same. So check

320
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 1: out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win.

321
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 1: But in the substec I talk about this democratic dilemma,

322
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 1: and that is if Democrats want if a Democrat wants

323
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: to win the White House in twenty twenty eight, just

324
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 1: saying Donald Trump is an existential threat and a dictator

325
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 1: and a fascist isn't going to cut it, because in

326
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 1: order to win the presidency, you're going to have to

327
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 1: win over some Trump voters. So and in order to

328
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,000
Speaker 1: have a conversation with us Trump voters, you're going to

329
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 1: have to admit that Trump was right about some things.

330
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,479
Speaker 1: And you can do it in a way. You know

331
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 1: that Trump has identified problems, He's just been terrible at

332
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: solving them. In fact, his solutions make things worse in

333
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 1: some cases. Right, he's trying to return manufacturing back to America.

334
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 1: His transactional tariff policy, which is turning us into a kleptocracy,

335
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 1: is a horrendous way to do this, Terrible for the economy,

336
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 1: terrible for the consumer, and doing nothing to bring manufacturing back.

337
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: But what the voters, You got to sort of understand

338
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: what the voters were voting for when they voted for

339
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 1: Trump in sixteen, and then they did it again in

340
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: twenty four. It's almost like the old Verizon commercial. Can

341
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 1: you hear me? Now? You know, Democrats misinterpreted the twenty

342
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 1: twenty election. They thought the voters were like, Yep, Donald

343
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 1: Trump was a mistake, This is an accident of history,

344
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 1: and he needs to be Trump and Trump is that

345
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 1: needs to be excommunicated essentially from mainstream American political debate.

346
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: That's not what the voters were saying. By the way,

347
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 1: if Joe Biden had had four hundred electoral votes, you

348
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: could have made the case that that's what the voters

349
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 1: were saying. If he did have but Joe Biden, while

350
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 1: he won every swing stay but North Carolina, it only

351
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 1: would have taken a couple, you know, a couple of

352
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: hundred thousand, basic about one hundred thousand plus votes for

353
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 1: Trump to win the electoral college. Right. It wasn't a landslide.

354
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 1: It wasn't some sort of massive repudiation of trump Ism.

355
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 1: What it was was a bunch of swing voters exhausted

356
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,959
Speaker 1: from COVID and wanting off the roller coaster. But it

357
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 1: wasn't a repudiation of the reason why Trump got elected

358
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,680
Speaker 1: in the first place. You know, and I think when

359
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,199
Speaker 1: you now, I think we have to view Trump's election

360
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: and this and this is sort of the blueprint that

361
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 1: I think any successful Democrat in twenty twenty eight has

362
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: to follow. And that is, you know, in fifteen, when

363
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 1: Donald Trump essentially launched his candidacy by going after John

364
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 1: McCain and the Bush family, many of us stuck in

365
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: some conventional thinking, myself included, thought, well, that's a mistake.

366
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: Republicans are not going to tolerate that. They're going to

367
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 1: punish him for that. It turns out, and I don't

368
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: think Trump knew this is what he was doing by

369
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: doing it. He just did it because it was his instinct.

370
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: He just got angry at people who didn't take him seriously.

371
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: This was no strategy. But you know, and I think

372
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 1: the biggest sometimes we all try to look for a strategy,

373
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 1: and with Trump, Trump just sort of stumbles into these things.

374
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: But the voters have a strategy, okay, And that's where

375
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: I think Democrats in general have the respect voter decision

376
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: here a lot better than they go about doing it

377
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: right now, by signaling that he was willing to take

378
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 1: on McCain and Bush. He signaled he was a different

379
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: type of Republican, that he wasn't going to be the

380
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: same type of Republican that they were used to that

381
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: was doing essentially nothing but losing elections for them. Going

382
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: back to George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W.

383
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: Bush winning only the popular vote once right, John McCain

384
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 1: met Ronniey. It singles that he's different, he's willing to

385
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: buck his party made him, gave him an independent credential.

386
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: So suddenly you had non Republicans going, huh, I'm curious

387
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 1: what that guy's up to. I want to check that out.

388
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: And so, yes, the sixteen election was more of a

389
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,479
Speaker 1: vote against Clinton than it was a vote for Trump.

390
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: But Trump was a vehicle to say, no, we don't

391
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 1: want establishment status quote politics. Right. Biden essentially won promising

392
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 1: status quot politics because the pandemic had so exhausted everybody

393
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 1: from Trump's roller coaster that, yeah, that is what the

394
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: public wanted. Now, Biden didn't bring that, right, Biden didn't

395
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: do that. Biden instead governed very aggressively farther to the

396
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: left than he had a mandate for, and they attempted

397
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 1: repudiation in their form of Essentially, the movement wanted to

398
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: excommunicate Trump and trump Ism. And I think the reason

399
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: the voter ended up rallying around Trump was not because

400
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: they liked Trump, but they didn't want all of us

401
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 1: to forget the initial message in the first place, the

402
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 1: same power, the same message that was sent by electing

403
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: Barack Obama, the same message that was sent by electing

404
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, which is, we don't want the same old,

405
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: same old. We want something entirely different. We want not

406
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: restoration preservation, We want annihilation, if you will, of the

407
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: way things work, and a rebuilding and renewal of some sort.

408
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 1: And in order to talk to that voter that didn't

409
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: like the way things have been going, who's been a

410
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: Literally they voted Obama, they voted Trump, they voted Biden,

411
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 1: they went back to Trump. Right, Who are these unsatisfied people? Right?

412
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 1: They feel they don't love their ability to move up

413
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: the economic ladder. It feels like there's a whole bunch

414
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 1: of rungs missing between them and the upper middle class,

415
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: Like they'd love to reach for it, but they can't

416
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: even get there. Income inequality has gotten worse, so there's

417
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 1: I think it's that disconnect that a future. So I

418
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: say this and that in order to have a conversation

419
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 1: with the very voters that reluctantly voted for Trump. These

420
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 1: people don't like them. This is great. I was telling

421
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 1: you about a focus group last week that I observed

422
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: out of Michigan of Biden Trump voters. And there's one

423
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: voter going on and on not liking all the power

424
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 1: that he's accumulating. I worry he wants to be a dictator,

425
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: this voter said. And then like, well, do you approve

426
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 1: of the job he's doing? Yeah, I'd say it. Do

427
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: you regret your vote? No? I don't regret my vote.

428
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: So they, you know, they kind of already know that

429
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: he doesn't really have the temperament for the job and

430
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: isn't really and is going too far in what they

431
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 1: want him to do the latter, but they wanted something.

432
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 1: They wanted somebody to attempt something. Their biggest fear on

433
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris was that she wasn't going to change things.

434
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 1: She was gonna be status quo. And you know, look,

435
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: it was revealing in her own memoir when she said

436
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: she underestimated the need that people wanted to know she

437
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:35,359
Speaker 1: was going to be a lot different from Joe Biden.

438
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: She thought her mere presence was enough to indicate she'd

439
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: be different from Joe Biden. I think we've learned in

440
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: politics you got to say something over and over again,

441
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: and you sometimes have to make a symbolic sacrifice at

442
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: the altar of sorts in order to prove to this

443
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: group of voters no, no, no, no, you're going to be

444
00:27:54,640 --> 00:28:00,479
Speaker 1: different in one form or another. And I say all

445
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 1: that in that I know that some on the left

446
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: don't want to hear that. That you can't acknowledge that

447
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 1: Trump's gotten has identified some issues that the Democrats have

448
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: failed to address, and that the threat to democracy that

449
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: he presents is such a front and center threat that

450
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: that needs to be the focal point. The problem is,

451
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: I don't think the voters you need to win are

452
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 1: interested in that conversation, and they still want to know

453
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 1: what are you going to do for them? They understand

454
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: what he's doing, it's still going to come back of

455
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: what are you going to do for me? And what

456
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: are you going to do about these problems he's identified?

457
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 1: Are you going to do something about it? So you know,

458
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: I think about it. Going back to Bill Clinton in

459
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: the eighties, the Democrats spent the eighties trying to repudiate

460
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: Reagan and Reaganism. Even in eighty eight, the campaign wasn't

461
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 1: trying to sort of accept the premise that Reagan was

462
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: a successful two term president. There was still the DNA

463
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: of the Democrats in eighty eight was no, the Republicans

464
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: were wrong about everything. By ninety two, after another shellacking

465
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: in eighty eight, Bill Clinton's was not sitting here repudiating

466
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 1: everything Reagan did. In fact, I always say that you know,

467
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: you knew Reagan won the argument when in nineteen ninety

468
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: five Bill Clinton said the air of big government is

469
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: over right when a Democrat said that, just like I

470
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: believe in some ways. Barack Obama won the argument on

471
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: entitlements when Donald Trump is out there campaigning saying Social

472
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: Security and Medicare cannot be touched, right, that is you know,

473
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: that was the central argument he said of the twenty

474
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 1: twelve campaign between Obama and Romney. Ryan and Donald Trump said,

475
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: you know, Obama was right. He doesn't say it that way,

476
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: but he's essentially saying it, which opened the door for

477
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: him to have a conversation with a whole bunch of

478
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: other voters who basically, while they may have agreed with

479
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: Republicans and a lot of the cultural issues, just didn't

480
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: trust them on issues like social security and healthcare. And

481
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: then Donald Trump found a way to have that conversation

482
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: by saying no, no, no, I hear you on that. It's

483
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 1: a similar vibe. You got to get somewhere where, whether

484
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 1: it's crime in the cities, security at the border, skepticism

485
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 1: of big tech, getting other countries to share the burden

486
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: of global security. You do it in a way. You

487
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: could say, hey, look, he's identified these problems, but he's

488
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: chosen ways that actually make it worse, doesn't make it better,

489
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: or he you know. Essentially, Democrats would be better served

490
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: by running Trump against Trump, saying, hey, you know, Trump

491
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: said he was going to do this. I was hoping

492
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 1: that he actually might follow through on something. The guy

493
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: never follows through in everything. But it's too bad, and

494
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: here's something but I and then you have days like

495
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: what happened Tuesday, where Trump behaves in such an Unamerican way,

496
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 1: behaves in pretty much the worst way a commander in

497
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: chief could ever behave in front of America's uniformed military leaders.

498
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: And I understand why there are some on the left

499
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 1: that just can't stomach the idea that gift accept the

500
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: premise that there are some things his presidency has identified

501
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: that voters like. All Right, I get it. I mean

502
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: what he did in front of the uniform military was outrageous,

503
00:31:55,560 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: the essentially declaring war on American citizens. You know, he's

504
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: really put these military leaders in an impossible situation. None

505
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: of them have been given an illegal order yet, and

506
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: I think the moment, you know, if you're wondering, why

507
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: aren't there should there be mass resignations. I've talked to

508
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: plenty of my friends that have served, and I've asked

509
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: them about this, whether they're they're disappointed that there hasn't

510
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 1: been resignations in the upper echelons and military rank to

511
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: this just clown show that is Pete hag Saith and

512
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 1: what Trump has been doing by essentially desperately trying to

513
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: politicize the military, pit the military, you know, essentially say

514
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: the military has to be pro MAGA and they say,

515
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 1: you know, until he until he issues an un constitutional order,

516
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: unlawful order. You know, if you're gonna if the whole

517
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: goal of the military is to stay above politics. A

518
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: political you salute whoever the people of the country decide

519
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: to elect to that office. Then the way they behave

520
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: today is exactly correct, or excuse me, behaved on Tuesday

521
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: is exactly correct. Yes, I'm doing this on a Tuesday

522
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: evening going into tomorrow, and it's it's frankly, I think

523
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 1: we should be proud of the fact that they stood

524
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 1: there silently. They made it as awkward as possible for

525
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 1: hag Seth and Trump up there. They put the country first.

526
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 1: They put their rank and file first. They put the

527
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: military ahead of politics, ahead of ahead of whatever they

528
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: thought they had to do. They showed up because they

529
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 1: were ordered to. Now, it's kind of pathetic that that

530
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: hag Seth is trying to lecture a whole bunch of

531
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: people that have gotten a whole lot of more promotions

532
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: than he ever got went in the military, and he's

533
00:33:56,320 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 1: trying to lecture these guys about what a warrior ethosays. Oh,

534
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: to be a oh to be a fly in their

535
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: brains as they were thinking about about about this, but

536
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 1: just think about where you don't you don't really you

537
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 1: didn't earn the respect, but you have to beg for it.

538
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: You have to demand it. Man whoever wants to be

539
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: in a position where they have to beg for respect.

540
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: If you are in a position of leadership and you

541
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 1: have not earned the respect of the people you're leading,

542
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 1: it's on you. You've done something wrong here. So today's

543
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 1: spectacle is and it is it is alarming. It is

544
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: everything that folks that plenty of folks are saying, and

545
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: it is going to be the counter that many have

546
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: to what I'm saying about. If you're gonna if you're

547
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: gonna sort of win back voters who left the Democratic Party,

548
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to acknowledge the reason why they left,

549
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: and you're going to have to acknowledge that there were

550
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 1: some things that Trump tapped into that the Democrats failed on.

551
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 1: So it's I get it instinctively, you're alarmed and want

552
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: to fight over here. But in some ways he's the

553
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: one trying to bait everybody. He wants those debates on

554
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 1: his terms. He would love for people to spend all

555
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: this time criticizing him about military and how he's trying

556
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: to use it to deal with crime in the streets.

557
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: What he would be have a harder time dealing with

558
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 1: is when you're like, boy, you know, well he's right

559
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 1: about getting manufacturing. He's too bad. He's taking too many

560
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:51,759
Speaker 1: bribes from companies in different ways that he's been that

561
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 1: he's had his own personal wealth enhands in lieu of

562
00:35:55,320 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 1: actually doing what he promised to do. So you're better off,

563
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: particularly in a democracy that I still think is functioning here. Okay,

564
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 1: I know it's we are not in a great place.

565
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: By the way, the number two most important issue to

566
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: voters who volunteered, the New York Times did not give

567
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 1: them a list. Number one was the economy and number

568
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 1: two was political division. It was the only two issues

569
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: that got double digits. And again I liked the way

570
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 1: the Times did it. They did not offer a list

571
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: of issues and asked the respondents to pick. They said,

572
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: what's the most important issue, and they just waited for

573
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 1: them to say. It is the better way to figure

574
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 1: out what are the issues that voters care about most?

575
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: You ask them and you let them. You don't prod them,

576
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 1: you don't push them, You let them tell you. The

577
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 1: fact that political division was two. The fact that we

578
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 1: are now this poll and another one over sixty percent

579
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 1: think we have a problem with political division in this country.

580
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: Another poll identified it as a political crisis. There's no

581
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 1: doubt that that that the country is going to be

582
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 1: looking for a leader that's going to figure out how

583
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 1: to bring us together. But part of being able to

584
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: bring us together is acknowledging you know what it is

585
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:19,919
Speaker 1: that that Trump tapped into that the Democratic Party needs

586
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 1: to lean into more. It is Wednesday, which also means

587
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 1: I've got a new top five list, the top est

588
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 1: top five top to jest stop. And here's something that

589
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,399
Speaker 1: I am pledging to do is that the first the

590
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,479
Speaker 1: first Wednesday of every month when I have in which

591
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: is October first, I will do Senate races up until

592
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: November of twenty twenty six, and the second Wednesday of

593
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 1: every month, I'll do a top five involving governor's races.

594
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,280
Speaker 1: So my top five involving center races today are simply

595
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: this the top five center races that are most likely

596
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 1: to switch parties. I'm not saying any of these five

597
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,240
Speaker 1: are going to switch parties, but they're the in order

598
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: of most likely to switch to Essentially, in this case,

599
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 1: it's the five most competitive races in the country, but

600
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: in the order of most likely to flip so number

601
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: one on that list is North Carolina, the open seat there.

602
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 1: We've had a little bit of early polling. You've got

603
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 1: somebody who's held state wide office versus somebody who hasn't. Right,

604
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: Michael Wattley has it as essentially the Republican nominee to

605
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: be and the Democratic nominee to be. Roy Cooper has

606
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: one state wide office multiple times. But you already see

607
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 1: it's it's I think I've seen two different polls and

608
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 1: they both basically have shown the same thing. Cooper's got

609
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 1: a but it's all within the margin of era forty six,

610
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:07,359
Speaker 1: forty two, forty seven, forty four. And guess what, that's

611
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: what the numbers are going to be between now and November.

612
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: This will be, as the cliche goes, all about turnout.

613
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 1: But I do think since this is a Republican held seat,

614
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 1: the Democrats a slight favor right, I would probably make

615
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,439
Speaker 1: if you want to do it as point spreads here,

616
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 1: I'd probably make Cooper a one and a half point

617
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 1: favorite here a little bit, but you know that's when

618
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: you're talking about margins that small. It doesn't take much

619
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: to lose this race. But when you look at it

620
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 1: for the rest of the map, and I think it

621
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 1: shows you how tough the path is for Democrats to

622
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 1: pick up the four seats they need to win the

623
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 1: Senate when the best shot at flipping a seat that

624
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 1: they have is essentially a coin flip on its own, right,

625
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 1: you need your third or fourth seat to be the

626
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: coin flip. And the fact is they're not anywhere near that.

627
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: They might get there. We'll see with recruiting. So right now,

628
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: this one year and one month out from election day

629
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, number one most likely Senate seat to

630
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 1: flip North Carolina number two. I didn't put an open

631
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 1: seat there. I think the last time I did this,

632
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: I said, I usually prioritize open seats, but I have

633
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: as off there. I think the John Assoft seat, Georgea's

634
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: Senate seat is all the polling have indicated. He's got

635
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 1: a narrow lead, just like Cooper. Right, nothing's big, I am.

636
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: I am not as convinced as others that George's a

637
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: pure swing state. I think Georgia is a organizing state

638
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 1: that Democrats, oh, you know, sort of have to a

639
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 1: lot of things have to go right for them to

640
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: win state wide races. The last time John Osoft was

641
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 1: on the ballot. Rafael Warnock was also on the ballot

642
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 1: with them when we had the two Senate seats at

643
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 1: the same time. How much did that matter with mobilizing

644
00:40:57,080 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 1: African American vote. I think it's worth something can Assoff

645
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: generate the same enthusiasm as Reverend Warnock. That's an open question.

646
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 1: When you look at other statewide races in Georgia, right,

647
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:17,760
Speaker 1: it is, Yes, Biden carried it in twenty twenty, Harris

648
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 1: got close but lost it. One governor's race there has

649
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: been fairly close, but the second but the one in

650
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:29,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two wasn't that close. It's still an uphill

651
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: battle for Democrats to win state. White race is sort

652
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: of in a generic environment. I'm not saying this is

653
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: going to be a generic environment, and a lot of

654
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:38,879
Speaker 1: this may depend on who the primary is. But when

655
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: you just look at the demographics of the state and

656
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 1: sort of just by the pure numbers, I put Georgia

657
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 1: as the second most likely to flip. And again the

658
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: fact that Georgia is above other Republican held seats. You know,

659
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: this is why the Democratic path to winning four seats

660
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: to get control of the same The path is so

661
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 1: narrow that right now it's not visible. I'm not saying

662
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 1: it might not become visible, but right now it is

663
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: not visible. Number Three, I'm the most likely to flip.

664
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: I put the open seat in Michigan. Mike Rogers is

665
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 1: not going to have a primary. That's a big advantage.

666
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 1: The Democratic primary is going to be messy, it's going

667
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: to be fascinating, it's going to be telling. In many ways.

668
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 1: I think it's a preview of what to expect in

669
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty eight Democratic presidential primary. You have sort

670
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: of different flavors. You have sort of an establishment favored

671
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: in Haley Stevens. You're going to have sort of an

672
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: outsider but sort of in the mainstream wing of the

673
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: party in Molly McMorrow. And then you have a more

674
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 1: progressive candidate Abdul Sayed. And so I'll do alll sayat sorry,

675
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 1: And I think that's very representative of what you're going

676
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: to see. Some outsiders that are mainstream. You're going to

677
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 1: see some progressives that are exciting the base, and it

678
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: could create a very messy primary. It could be very

679
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 1: hard to unify. But we don't know yet. And I

680
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: still think there's a slight Blue lean to Michigan generically,

681
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: which is why I have it further down on the

682
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 1: list than Georgia on there as remember, right now Michigan

683
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: is a Democratic held seat, but it is you know,

684
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 1: if you look at the open seats, the Democratic open

685
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 1: seats Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Illinois, Michigan is the best

686
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: shot that Republicans have of winning one of those open seats.

687
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 1: But I still actually think Georgia right now is still

688
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: a better shot for them than any of the open

689
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:43,839
Speaker 1: Democratic seats. I'll be doing these monthly, so this list

690
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 1: could change. Number four on the list. I tell you

691
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: I've vacillated on this. I went back and forth. I

692
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:54,399
Speaker 1: had three different seats in this slot over the last

693
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: few hours as I was having these debates. I ended

694
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 1: up settling on Maine at number four. I do think

695
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 1: Susan Collins is very difficult to beat, but I also

696
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 1: think this is Susan Collins has never attempted to run

697
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: for reelection this unpopular before. Her favorable ratings are as

698
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 1: low as they've ever been. Her unfavorable rating in Maine

699
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:17,400
Speaker 1: is as high as it's ever been. I am not

700
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: gonna underestimate her ability to win elections, and this is

701
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 1: not a presidential year. I always thought she'd be more

702
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 1: vulnerable in a presidential year. So we'll see. We could

703
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,240
Speaker 1: have an intense primary here if the governor Janet Mills

704
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: does get in and it becomes sort of establishment versus

705
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: progressive primary with the oyster farmer. Let's see what happens.

706
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: I will say this, I think if Janet Mills runs,

707
00:44:49,640 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 1: she'd better come across more enthusiastic about wanting to be

708
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: a Senator than she has so far. The way that

709
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 1: she sort of kept her likely candidacy alive has been

710
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 1: this sort of if it's the mindset, I have to

711
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 1: if you twist my arm. You know one thing about

712
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: Susan Collins. She loves being in the Senate. I don't

713
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:14,839
Speaker 1: know if it always plays well with voters. I get

714
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 1: that you may be a reluctant partisan and maybe you

715
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 1: don't want to do that, but are you reluctant to

716
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: actually do the job? I don't want to be in Washington, Okay,

717
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: then don't run for the office. Right So I'm a

718
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: little I'm gonna be if she runs. I'm very curious

719
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 1: to see what her rollout is because she needs to

720
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 1: show a lot more enthusiasm for this race, I think

721
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: to win it. Then she's shown so far and in

722
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 1: the number five slot. If I vacillated a bunch with Maine,

723
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 1: I always was going to have Maine in my top five.

724
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 1: For this fifth slot, I condemplated three different races. New

725
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: Hampshire right, it's an open seat. Johnny Soon whu news

726
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,719
Speaker 1: being recruited heavily. It looks like he's more likely than not.

727
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: Big baseball card collector, by the way, really great collection.

728
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 1: His is all pre war. He's real super old school

729
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 1: in that. Scott Brown has not been polling as well.

730
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 1: I understand why Republicans think he's he's he's not electable there.

731
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 1: I still think that he would run a competitive race

732
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,800
Speaker 1: against Chris Pappas, but there's no doubt all the polling

733
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,839
Speaker 1: has shown that, you know, the Chris sonun who hangover

734
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 1: effect I think has really helped Johnson, Who's name idea.

735
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 1: What's funny is is well Johnson Who's no trumpy trumper.

736
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 1: He was much more of a conservative ideologically than his brother.

737
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: But his brother's governorship I've seen very much through a

738
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 1: moderate lens, and I think that spillover has really helped

739
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 1: because and I think John would agree with me, his

740
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 1: poll numbers look better today than they did when he

741
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: when he ended up losing reelection the last time he

742
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: ran for the Senate. So I don't know if he

743
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: wants to admit that his younger brother might have helped

744
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 1: his political political brand a little bit. Ohio. With Shared

745
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 1: Brown in the race, I cond of played putting that

746
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 1: in five and then Iowa. I ultimately decided to go

747
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: with New Hampshire because Sonunu looks like he's more likely

748
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 1: to be in And I do think Sonunu that's a

749
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 1: different ballgame, especially you're going to have real investment of

750
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of money that comes with it, so

751
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 1: it'll become self fulfilling and we'll be staring at one

752
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,759
Speaker 1: of these one two three point races in New Hampshire.

753
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,719
Speaker 1: I'll tell you my thinking on Ohio. I just don't

754
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 1: know how Shared Brown gets to fifty right, I'm now

755
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 1: ruling it out. I also think Brown has a complicated

756
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 1: messaging challenge, which I've shared with you before. On tariffs.

757
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 1: On one hand, the tariffs are are causing a lot

758
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 1: of sort of consumer pain. On the other hand, tariffs

759
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 1: are not a bad word to work in people in Ohio.

760
00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: When it comes to goods, perhaps you'll see a shared

761
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: brown say, the food tariffs are bad, the the tariffs

762
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,479
Speaker 1: on auto parts are good. The tariffs and cars are good.

763
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 1: They're bad on food. And I'm kind of wondering if

764
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 1: we're going to start to see that split because I've

765
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: had a lot of conversations with labor leaders where you know,

766
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,680
Speaker 1: they like that Trump is willing to use tariffs. They

767
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:28,359
Speaker 1: liked that Biden was willing to use tariffs, particularly when

768
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,120
Speaker 1: it came to some of the to steal into some

769
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 1: of those some of the sort of the non food tariffs, right,

770
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: but the tariffs on ag are really causing pain. The

771
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 1: tariffs on coffee are causing all of us pain. So

772
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 1: I wonder if you're going to start to see an

773
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: attempt by Democrats who are still trying to win labor

774
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: back and labor union members back, finding a way to

775
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 1: split at the attack on tariffs and essentially go after

776
00:48:57,200 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: the food tax, tariffs on AG and hurting farmers and

777
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: try to sort of create a create a sort of

778
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 1: a separate distinction with the steel tariffs and the auto tariffs,

779
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 1: and then I contemplated Iowa because of the open seat.

780
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 1: But I will tell you, Uh, look, I've been impressed

781
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,400
Speaker 1: without quickly Republicans have rallied around at Ashley Hinson's campaign.

782
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 1: I still think this is going to be a competitive race.

783
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 1: But another reason I kept it out of the five

784
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 1: slot is I've been following a story and I don't

785
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 1: know how many of you have, but I keep an

786
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: eye the story about the des Moines superintendent who turned

787
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 1: out to be not an American citizen that came to

788
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: as a shock to a lot of people in des Moines.

789
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 1: He was apparently well regarded in his job, but somehow

790
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 1: he was in this country illegally and had a deport

791
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: deportation notice for over a year, and there was sort

792
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 1: of an awkward you know, as usual. How Ice has

793
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 1: been conducting itself has been horrendous, you know, sort of

794
00:49:56,560 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 1: unnecessarily confrontational. But it doesn't mass the issue that apparently

795
00:50:02,880 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: this now former des Moines superintendent. I believe he's resigned

796
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: at this point, essentially lied to the school board of

797
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 1: des Moines. Well, guess what one of the people running

798
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 1: for the US Senate, Jackie Norris, is on the Des

799
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 1: Moines School Board. This story hasn't finished playing out, but

800
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: I wonder how much this sets back Democrats in the state. Generically,

801
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 1: it may end up being a non issue a year

802
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 1: from now, but it isn't a net positive for the

803
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 1: Democratic brand, and I think that's fair to say. Again,

804
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: let's see this whole story play out, make sure we

805
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:55,839
Speaker 1: have all the facts on this, But it was I've

806
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 1: been following the story pretty closely. It's like, you're just like, wait,

807
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,800
Speaker 1: what when I saw that that Ice had detained the

808
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 1: superintendent of schools and he was not an American citizen?

809
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 1: How did this happen? Right? There's a lot that needs

810
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: to be unpacked with this story. But to say that

811
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: it's it's super high profile in the largest media market

812
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: in the state, so it's going to get its share

813
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 1: of attentions. In what I would call my others receiving

814
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 1: votes category, they're not near the top five yet, but

815
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 1: who's to say they won't get there. Nebraska, Texas, Minnesota

816
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 1: Republicans have had a surprisingly hard time finding a credible

817
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 1: candidate in the Minnesota open seat. Alaska and Louisiana still

818
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 1: waiting for some candidate things to develop there but anyway,

819
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 1: the five right now most likely to flip my top

820
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 1: five right now, thirteen months from election day North Carolina one,

821
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: Georgia two, Michigan three, Main four, New Hampshire five. So

822
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 1: with that, let's do a few questions. Ask Chuck all right.

823
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 1: First question comes from Luke anyway, Hey, Chuck, technical clarification question.

824
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,359
Speaker 1: I keep hearing Republicans saying that the Democrats are going

825
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 1: to shut down the government for quote, illegal immigrants to

826
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,359
Speaker 1: get healthcare. Is this true? Are the subsidies in question

827
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,440
Speaker 1: really just for undocumented immigrants? If not, and I suspect not,

828
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 1: then why is this lie so pervasive and unquestion? I

829
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: haven't heard left leaning outlets discuss this point, and it

830
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 1: makes me wonder how much of a kernel of truth

831
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,760
Speaker 1: is in the claim that Dems are unwilling to admit.

832
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,920
Speaker 1: Are Democrats able to handle this talking point without fracturing

833
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:40,000
Speaker 1: what's left of their coalition? Thanks in advance, love the show, Luke. So, Luke, look, no,

834
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,760
Speaker 1: the answer is no, it's not true. Now. What happened

835
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 1: before is that they discovered that some people who were here,

836
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 1: undocumented people were somehow accessing some benefits because perhaps they

837
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: were with somebody or had a child who is an

838
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 1: American citizen who was getting benefits. Right, that's if you're

839
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 1: looking for the kernel truth truth. It's not the parents

840
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 1: may be here illegally, but their kid is here legally.

841
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:11,040
Speaker 1: They do have access to the medicaid, to these various things,

842
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 1: but the parent doesn't. So I'll let you decide. Can

843
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: you say, are the parents that are not of legal

844
00:53:21,160 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: status in this country benefiting because their child who does

845
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 1: have legal status is getting a benefit? You see where

846
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: I'm going here. So, if you're looking for the kernel

847
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: of truth, which many on the right would say, you know,

848
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,719
Speaker 1: democrats are claiming it's not true, but you know they're

849
00:53:38,719 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 1: benefiting from this, et cetera. So that's the semantic you'd

850
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 1: be debating over. But no, nobody who's here illegally is

851
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:52,680
Speaker 1: supposed to be eligible for this. But if you are

852
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 1: an American citizen, and then you are. And so where

853
00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 1: the gray area is is the children who are here

854
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 1: who were born here to folks who are not of

855
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 1: legal status. I hope that helps a little bit in

856
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:13,120
Speaker 1: the clarification. Next question comes from will E says, Hey, Chuck,

857
00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 1: your commentary was spot on. I just don't know which commentary.

858
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 1: I'll keep going because aren't they all sorry? I think

859
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: that's what you have to do as a podcast host now, right,

860
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: is I have to overinflate my ego and how say

861
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 1: how smart and great? I am? Right? Isn't that what

862
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 1: I'm supposed to say? Anyway? I digress, But anyway, I

863
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:35,879
Speaker 1: went to my first Wisconsin game in over fifteen years

864
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 1: and it was ugly student section channing fire. Fickle friends

865
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 1: texting me, f fickle, don't see how he makes it

866
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:43,720
Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. The bye this weekend

867
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:45,439
Speaker 1: is going to be our best weekend for the rest

868
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 1: of the season. Enjoy the show. So obviously, what he's

869
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 1: saying is my commentary on football was spot on. I appreciate.

870
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 1: Thank you. And by the way, some of you are

871
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 1: probably asking me, weren't you at a football game this weekend?

872
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:57,439
Speaker 1: How come you didn't talk about it in the last show.

873
00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 1: I'll tell you in the second here, but I want

874
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:00,799
Speaker 1: to get through a couple more questions. This next one

875
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: comes from Deborah You. Hey, Chuck love the podcast. Your

876
00:55:04,040 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 1: recent discussion on polls showing democrats less interested in talking

877
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,319
Speaker 1: with Republicans really resonated with me. Many of us have

878
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 1: tried to have rational, civil conversations with Trump supporters, presenting facts, listening,

879
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 1: seeking common ground, but it feels futile. I consider myself

880
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: moderate and open to compromise, yet too often the loudest

881
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 1: UOP voices drown out dialogue with outrage and hypocrisy, leaving

882
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:25,879
Speaker 1: me exhausted and disheartened. Well, Deborah, I would just say

883
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 1: start with people in your family that that you know,

884
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: Start with people you work with, or people in your

885
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 1: neighborhood that that you that you know are on the

886
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,719
Speaker 1: other side, and try it that way. I think if

887
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:41,239
Speaker 1: you have some sort of previous relationship that isn't political

888
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 1: with somebody, that's where you can start to break, just

889
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 1: to sort of break the ice and thaw things out

890
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 1: a little bit. I try humor. You know. Look, I

891
00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 1: I have learned over I have my own ways that

892
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 1: I you know, I consider myself pretty good at reading people.

893
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 1: I kind of know where I think people will go. So,

894
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: you know, if I don't know somebody very well, I

895
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:14,799
Speaker 1: usually try to connect on another subject first, sports or

896
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:19,319
Speaker 1: weather or you know, if you're on an airplane, you

897
00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 1: know the frustrations of flying or something, you know, sort

898
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 1: of non controversial like that. But I think it feels

899
00:56:29,600 --> 00:56:32,280
Speaker 1: like what you're describing is having a conversation with somebody

900
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 1: that's super online. And I will say, there's no I've

901
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 1: tried to have civil conversations with pen pals. I have

902
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:45,879
Speaker 1: quite a few pen piles I've I've accumulated over the years.

903
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 1: Some of you may be listening now that are regular

904
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 1: pen piles with me. Where Frankly, if you if you

905
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:54,360
Speaker 1: email me, I usually will respond if you're fairly civil,

906
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 1: even if you're tough and discree. You know, I don't

907
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 1: think you you know, I really you're always you know,

908
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:01,959
Speaker 1: given a pass to this side or giving a pass

909
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 1: to that side. You know, as long as you're not

910
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 1: like filled with venom, I'm usually going to respond and

911
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:10,280
Speaker 1: try to have a civil back and forth because frankly,

912
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 1: I'm always trying to learn. I'm trying to understand the

913
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 1: you know, what is it that has you exercised? Maybe

914
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:19,439
Speaker 1: it's something I'm missing, So I always think there's something

915
00:57:19,480 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 1: to learn. But when the person's super online and they're

916
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 1: just sort of you know, you know, they they spend

917
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 1: more time reading cat Turd fifty two or whatever that

918
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:35,560
Speaker 1: right wing meme Twitter feed is or TikTok feed. I

919
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 1: just call them all cat turns. But I think one

920
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 1: of them is called cat turd fifty two. Is it?

921
00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 1: Maybe it's cat turd ninety six. I don't know, you know,

922
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 1: I mean, it's like they're all Mike Lee, right, I

923
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 1: don't know. Senator Mike Lee is like somebody who can't

924
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 1: have a conversation with anymore because he's just gotten just

925
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 1: he calls himself based Mike Lee, right, like in weird way,

926
00:57:56,840 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 1: he's at least admitting that he's, Hey, I am unk

927
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 1: on this, and he is sort of drunk on online

928
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 1: mega right. And I guess he's sort of like the

929
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 1: reverse reform smoker, right. He was. He was anti he

930
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 1: was an anti trumper from the beginning, and then when

931
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 1: he flipped a maga, he decided, I'm going to smoke

932
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 1: four packs a day. You're not going to have a

933
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: rational debate with with somebody who's who's that online? So

934
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 1: I guess, you know it. It's certainly a better conversation

935
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 1: to be had in person then it will be, uh,

936
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 1: you know, digitally anyway. But it probably is best to

937
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 1: start off with somebody you might have a pre existing

938
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 1: relationship with even if it's something as innocuous as you're

939
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:44,440
Speaker 1: dry cleaner, or you know somebody you just happen to

940
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:48,400
Speaker 1: see while you're walking your neighborhood all the time. Next

941
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:52,240
Speaker 1: question comes from Gail in Woodinville, Washington. Hey, Chuck, so

942
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 1: glad I discovered the toodcast me too. Tell your friends. Uh,

943
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 1: our numbers are growing a lot. Uh, that's for sure.

944
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:02,240
Speaker 1: You know again, I think of Sister Pound in my chest.

945
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:07,200
Speaker 1: We're the fastest growing podcast in you know this section three,

946
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 1: two four five. So anyway, I'm sort of kidding. I

947
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: know hindsight is twenty twenty, but do you think the

948
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 1: country would be better off now if Trump had been

949
00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 1: re elected in twenty twenty. I've heard this argument. For

950
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:20,440
Speaker 1: the sake of argument. Let's forget that many of us

951
00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 1: probably would have died from COVID under his leadership. But

952
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 1: had he been reelected, Mike Pence would have been VP,

953
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:28,919
Speaker 1: and we might never have known of JD. Vance. Trump

954
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 1: and his clown posse might have been bumbled through the

955
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 1: second term. With more guardrails. There would have been no

956
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 1: indictments or prosecutions to trigger his revenge to her. There

957
00:59:37,280 --> 00:59:39,720
Speaker 1: wouldn't have been the four years from twenty twenty one

958
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,919
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five to develop Project twenty twenty five

959
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 1: and give Stephen Miller the opportunity to consolidate power, and

960
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 1: best of all, Trump would be out of office right now.

961
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:52,960
Speaker 1: What do you think? Keep up the great work, Gale.

962
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 1: I have had this conversation. I have humored this conversation,

963
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: and with various friends of mine on this front, it's

964
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 1: a it's as as you know, I'm going to have

965
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 1: a what if series coming up, and what I do

966
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 1: is sort of forks in the road. You know, what

967
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:17,600
Speaker 1: if this would have happened instead of this? In the past,

968
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:19,440
Speaker 1: I've done what if Hillary Clinton had run for president

969
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 1: in two thousand and four instead of two thousand and eight,

970
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 1: which you've actually won the presidency in two thousand and four.

971
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 1: I certainly make the argument that her best chance was

972
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 1: two thousand and four, more so than eight or sixteen

973
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons. What if Bill Clinton had

974
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:37,400
Speaker 1: resigned in nineteen ninety eight, as many Democrats wanted him

975
01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 1: do in the peak of Monica Lewinsky, then you would

976
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 1: have had a President Gore running for a full term

977
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: in two thousand. What is that election like nine eleven,

978
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 1: still happens, but this time it's ten straight years of

979
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 1: democratic So you see, how you know, you start to

980
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 1: go down these roads, and so anyway you have well,

981
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:02,160
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, you have potentially helped preview one

982
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 1: of the what ifs that I want to go down

983
01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:08,520
Speaker 1: because I think this is it is true. This is

984
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 1: a more damaging presidency to the sort of guard rails

985
01:01:12,760 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 1: of American democracy than if he had served two consecutive terms.

986
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about it. It's an interesting question though,

987
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 1: whether I think it's weirdly, I think we need another

988
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 1: twenty years to figure out whether it was better or not.

989
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 1: You know, do any of the Biden policies work, And

990
01:01:42,240 --> 01:01:44,480
Speaker 1: if they do, you know you're going to have to

991
01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:49,160
Speaker 1: consider those as well. So I think it's I understand

992
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 1: where you're coming from. I think there's there's certainly when

993
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 1: you look at the when you look at this the

994
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:04,160
Speaker 1: what he's done so far and not even through year one,

995
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:06,680
Speaker 1: and what I've said earlier about Steven Miller, and we'll

996
01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 1: see how the shutdown goes. I think it's put it

997
01:02:13,360 --> 01:02:17,000
Speaker 1: this way, Donald Trump is a much weaker figure inside

998
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:19,800
Speaker 1: the Republican Party if he had won reelection, and he'd

999
01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 1: have been a much weaker figure sooner inside the party.

1000
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 1: And maybe Democrats control the Senate after twenty twenty two

1001
01:02:30,120 --> 01:02:32,240
Speaker 1: in a bigger way, not a smaller way. Maybe their

1002
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:36,120
Speaker 1: map is more navigable, right Like, I could certainly paint

1003
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 1: a very rosy picture for Democrats right now, but it's anyway.

1004
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 1: The point is is I think this is a discussion

1005
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:54,360
Speaker 1: that you should look forward to on the Chuck Podcast

1006
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 1: towards the end of the holiday season, when I will

1007
01:02:57,680 --> 01:03:00,160
Speaker 1: do my annual what if series that I've done in

1008
01:03:00,200 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 1: my previous iterations of the Chuck Podcast. Do you search them?

1009
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:07,320
Speaker 1: Some of these episodes NBC's taken off the website, but

1010
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 1: some of them you can find. But it's I call

1011
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:11,640
Speaker 1: it my what if series, so you can check it

1012
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:13,360
Speaker 1: out from there. Do one more question, and then I'll

1013
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 1: give you a quick little update about my football travels.

1014
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 1: This next question comes from Cold Tea. Oh. The question is, Hey, Chuck,

1015
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:27,640
Speaker 1: hopefully you've seen this crazy story. The Des Moines superintendent

1016
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:29,600
Speaker 1: was arrested by ice, which is crazy enough, but it

1017
01:03:29,600 --> 01:03:32,200
Speaker 1: could also take down the leading Democratic Senate candidate, Jackie Norris.

1018
01:03:32,240 --> 01:03:33,919
Speaker 1: Who was chair of the schooloard wild stuff in Iowa.

1019
01:03:34,120 --> 01:03:35,680
Speaker 1: No one seems to know what is true or not.

1020
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 1: You just summarized everything I was saying earlier with my

1021
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 1: top five list and why I didn't put Iowa in

1022
01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 1: that fitth spot because I want to see this story

1023
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 1: finished playing out. It is wild. If you don't know

1024
01:03:49,440 --> 01:03:56,400
Speaker 1: the story, it does feel it's amazing people that love. Look,

1025
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 1: the superintendent was beloved by many people, and they don't

1026
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:02,440
Speaker 1: want to leave the facts that apparently are in this case.

1027
01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 1: And that's why I think the the fallout from this

1028
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:11,480
Speaker 1: could be more damaging to the Democratic brand. I again,

1029
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 1: I'm I want to wait. I'm not gonna lie. I

1030
01:04:16,720 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 1: want to wait a little bit to just let's get

1031
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 1: all the facts out. Let's see what everything looks like.

1032
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:25,120
Speaker 1: Is he is everything that's been said true that he

1033
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 1: you know about a weapon in his car, cash, et cetera.

1034
01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 1: He was the second superintendent job. I mean, it's sort

1035
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 1: of like does anybody do any vetting anywhere in this

1036
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:39,680
Speaker 1: country on this front? So there's a there's a more

1037
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 1: information I want to know, But I thought Cole, you

1038
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 1: summarized it well. Have you seen this crazy story you

1039
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:50,000
Speaker 1: couldn't have made up a story like this right as

1040
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 1: a plot line. And this is always a reminder when

1041
01:04:54,000 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 1: you're whenever I'm trying to write fictional political storylines. For

1042
01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 1: the various attempts I've done for political fiction, story like

1043
01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:06,520
Speaker 1: this happens, and you're like, how do you manufacture fiction

1044
01:05:06,600 --> 01:05:10,720
Speaker 1: when the truth is so much crazier? All right, I

1045
01:05:10,800 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 1: will tell you I was at that crazy Dallas Green

1046
01:05:13,200 --> 01:05:15,000
Speaker 1: Bay game. I think I sort of hinted that I

1047
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:19,919
Speaker 1: was going to that, which in full sort of toodcast

1048
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 1: behind the curtain plotting. You know what that meant is

1049
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 1: that Monday podcast I taped before I left for Dallas

1050
01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. I went down Sunday, came back Monday,

1051
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:34,440
Speaker 1: so it was a quick trip. My son's doing great.

1052
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 1: Thanks for asking. I know some of you are at

1053
01:05:38,120 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 1: least thinking that, so I thought I would pre answer

1054
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:45,840
Speaker 1: that question. But I'll tell you this. I'll we get

1055
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:50,800
Speaker 1: to the game and it feels it felt like sixty

1056
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:55,080
Speaker 1: forty Cowboys to Packers fans. There were Packers fans everywhere,

1057
01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 1: and I know some of it is like, oh, you know,

1058
01:05:57,400 --> 01:05:59,280
Speaker 1: we're Packers fans, so all we're seeing are the other

1059
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:02,240
Speaker 1: Packers fans, But when the teams came out, you felt

1060
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:05,520
Speaker 1: the cheers and early on, and of course the Packers

1061
01:06:05,520 --> 01:06:09,680
Speaker 1: got a quick start thirteen to nothing, and here they're

1062
01:06:09,680 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 1: about to kick the extra point, and you could just

1063
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 1: feel the Dallas fans were like, oh, this is going

1064
01:06:14,120 --> 01:06:18,120
Speaker 1: exactly as I feared. US Packer fans were as cocky

1065
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 1: as ever. And then they blocked that extra point and

1066
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:24,200
Speaker 1: run back for two points and it's instead of fourteen

1067
01:06:24,240 --> 01:06:27,680
Speaker 1: to nothing, it's thirteen to two. And I just sit

1068
01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:29,840
Speaker 1: there and look at my son. I'm like, what the

1069
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:32,880
Speaker 1: second week in a row we're getting We get that

1070
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:35,200
Speaker 1: field goal block with the Browns and then this extra

1071
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 1: point block, so we just are stewing from here on out.

1072
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 1: We stopped and joined the game. We're angry at Rich Bisaccia,

1073
01:06:43,400 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 1: who's the special teams coach, who a bunch of US

1074
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 1: Packer fans have been like, get rid of this guy.

1075
01:06:48,720 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 1: The special teams is atrocious. It's been atrocious for two

1076
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:56,440
Speaker 1: years now. And then every single time on the kickoff,

1077
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 1: the Packers didn't know the rules. They kept the ball

1078
01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:02,080
Speaker 1: bouncing the landing zone and they'd take it in the

1079
01:07:02,120 --> 01:07:04,040
Speaker 1: end zone thinking they were getting it at the thirty five,

1080
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 1: and they did it multiple times and it comes out

1081
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:10,160
Speaker 1: to the twenty. All these little hidden yardages, and then

1082
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:12,840
Speaker 1: there was the bizarre play calling of Lafleur at the

1083
01:07:12,960 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 1: end of the first half, end of the regulation, and

1084
01:07:15,680 --> 01:07:19,280
Speaker 1: at the end of the overtime. This was one of

1085
01:07:19,280 --> 01:07:24,240
Speaker 1: those where so the game ends in a tie and

1086
01:07:24,280 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 1: the Dallas fans felt like they won something and all

1087
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 1: of us Packer fans felt like we lost. This was

1088
01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:32,720
Speaker 1: not one of those where everybody, eh, and you didn't.

1089
01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I didn't leave gone. Boy, that was a

1090
01:07:34,680 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 1: great game. It was not a great game. The Packers

1091
01:07:37,600 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 1: played terribly. The Cowboys. It was really interesting. They were

1092
01:07:43,520 --> 01:07:46,640
Speaker 1: playing afraid for the first quarter and a half. It

1093
01:07:46,680 --> 01:07:49,040
Speaker 1: was like they did not want Michael Parsons to even

1094
01:07:49,040 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 1: get a chance to sack backs. They didn't even bother

1095
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:52,919
Speaker 1: to pass the ball, or if they did, it would

1096
01:07:52,920 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 1: be like a quick strop and a little dump off.

1097
01:07:56,400 --> 01:07:58,280
Speaker 1: Then they get this two point conversion and it's like

1098
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 1: Schottenheimer coach decided, you know what, there are other plays

1099
01:08:03,000 --> 01:08:05,880
Speaker 1: in the playbook, why not? And you know the way

1100
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 1: football is, right, it's like a this this game felt

1101
01:08:09,360 --> 01:08:14,160
Speaker 1: like one of those college games where a highly ranked

1102
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:17,240
Speaker 1: team is visiting an unranked team and they let the

1103
01:08:17,360 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 1: unranked team hang around, and then all of a sudden,

1104
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:22,160
Speaker 1: the unranked team realize they have a chance to win

1105
01:08:22,479 --> 01:08:24,639
Speaker 1: and they start playing the best game of their lives.

1106
01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 1: George Pickens, who's never consistent when he's on a football field,

1107
01:08:29,560 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 1: paid attention and seem to actually participate in the offense

1108
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 1: almost one hundred percent of the plays. And guess what,

1109
01:08:37,880 --> 01:08:43,240
Speaker 1: when he's fully paying attention, he's a dangerous threat. The

1110
01:08:43,280 --> 01:08:47,040
Speaker 1: Packers couldn't get a pass rush. They were only you know,

1111
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:49,080
Speaker 1: the whole key to the Packers is just that doing

1112
01:08:49,120 --> 01:08:51,800
Speaker 1: that four man pass rush, the assumption was they were

1113
01:08:51,800 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 1: going to get to Dak and they couldn't get to him.

1114
01:08:55,400 --> 01:08:58,240
Speaker 1: Really until the overtime did they finally seem to figure

1115
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:01,760
Speaker 1: that out. But Schottenheimer out coached Halfley, and we hadn't

1116
01:09:01,760 --> 01:09:05,519
Speaker 1: seen Halfley out coach. So the Packers are are what

1117
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:08,759
Speaker 1: are we now? Two to one and one? And it

1118
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:13,240
Speaker 1: just feels off right, And now you got to ask yourself,

1119
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 1: was was the Lions game sort of an anomaly where

1120
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:21,200
Speaker 1: the Packers simply a little bit more ready and the

1121
01:09:21,240 --> 01:09:24,920
Speaker 1: Lions weren't they were still in preseason mode, because all

1122
01:09:24,920 --> 01:09:27,280
Speaker 1: of a sudden, they look like the best team in

1123
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:29,479
Speaker 1: that division, and the Packers are not playing like the

1124
01:09:29,479 --> 01:09:33,479
Speaker 1: best team in that division. So what I have to say,

1125
01:09:33,640 --> 01:09:36,479
Speaker 1: I think that's a full indictment on the coaching staff,

1126
01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:41,599
Speaker 1: from Halflee to Lafleor to Bisacia, Bisacia, this is I don't.

1127
01:09:43,320 --> 01:09:45,839
Speaker 1: I admire that Lafleur is very loyal to his coaches,

1128
01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:48,840
Speaker 1: but he kept the defensive coordinator a season too long.

1129
01:09:49,360 --> 01:09:52,160
Speaker 1: And I think it's painfully obvious with these new special

1130
01:09:52,200 --> 01:09:55,040
Speaker 1: teams rules that nobody on the team seems to know

1131
01:09:56,400 --> 01:09:59,040
Speaker 1: that they probably kept the special teams coach a season

1132
01:09:59,080 --> 01:10:02,719
Speaker 1: too long on this front, And if you follow Packer,

1133
01:10:02,800 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 1: you know, for those of you that follow the Packer

1134
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 1: stuff closely, you know that most Packer fans are raging

1135
01:10:07,920 --> 01:10:14,920
Speaker 1: right now about that more than ever on the college front. Look,

1136
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:17,519
Speaker 1: it was just a great game, great weekend of games,

1137
01:10:17,680 --> 01:10:19,400
Speaker 1: and it was great to not have to worry about

1138
01:10:19,400 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 1: the Hurricanes to be in that. I will say this,

1139
01:10:22,840 --> 01:10:25,799
Speaker 1: I'm a little bummed that Florida State lost that Uva

1140
01:10:25,880 --> 01:10:29,120
Speaker 1: game on Friday night because what that sets up is

1141
01:10:29,160 --> 01:10:34,520
Speaker 1: a more desperate Florida State team against Miami this Saturday.

1142
01:10:34,680 --> 01:10:37,680
Speaker 1: This is another big test for crystabal Right, there's there

1143
01:10:37,760 --> 01:10:40,440
Speaker 1: was a couple of coaches that have high ranked teams

1144
01:10:40,439 --> 01:10:42,479
Speaker 1: that have not been able to win the big game.

1145
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:46,280
Speaker 1: James Franklin at Penn State, Mario Cristobal whether he was

1146
01:10:46,320 --> 01:10:49,200
Speaker 1: at Oregon or at Miami. You know, are you going

1147
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:51,360
Speaker 1: to be able to win? Be able to you know,

1148
01:10:51,880 --> 01:10:55,400
Speaker 1: not lose a dumb game. I think Christa Ball passed

1149
01:10:55,439 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 1: one test against Florida when they played not their best game.

1150
01:11:00,479 --> 01:11:02,560
Speaker 1: That's a game they would have lost last year, and

1151
01:11:02,600 --> 01:11:04,720
Speaker 1: they figured out how to win it this year. This

1152
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:07,439
Speaker 1: is the first road test against a team that's more

1153
01:11:07,479 --> 01:11:12,280
Speaker 1: desperate to win than Miamias. You know, can we do?

1154
01:11:12,479 --> 01:11:15,439
Speaker 1: We do? We treat it as a business trip and

1155
01:11:15,479 --> 01:11:19,720
Speaker 1: we go up there and just out physical them. There's

1156
01:11:19,720 --> 01:11:23,080
Speaker 1: no reason why they shouldn't. But Florida State's now a

1157
01:11:23,080 --> 01:11:25,840
Speaker 1: bit more desperate. I would have preferred a more hyped

1158
01:11:25,880 --> 01:11:29,479
Speaker 1: up Florida State team thinking that they're going to go

1159
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:32,040
Speaker 1: nose for nose and would have would have had a

1160
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:39,320
Speaker 1: little bit more attention on that. But it's uh. I'm

1161
01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:43,360
Speaker 1: looking forward to Saturday night in Tallahassee. But I'm not

1162
01:11:43,400 --> 01:11:47,040
Speaker 1: gonna lie. I wish they had won that Friday game

1163
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:49,800
Speaker 1: because I think in some ways they're going to be

1164
01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:52,240
Speaker 1: a bit more desperate, which means they're going to be

1165
01:11:52,880 --> 01:11:58,400
Speaker 1: playing whatever that means, right, just slightly slightly with more urgency,

1166
01:11:58,720 --> 01:12:02,400
Speaker 1: more entire because or State has to win if they

1167
01:12:02,400 --> 01:12:03,880
Speaker 1: want to get there. Because I think one thing we

1168
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:08,800
Speaker 1: know is true, ten and two ACC teams are not

1169
01:12:08,840 --> 01:12:11,800
Speaker 1: getting into the playoff. We already found that out. Miami

1170
01:12:11,840 --> 01:12:13,760
Speaker 1: found out the hard way. You're gonna have to be

1171
01:12:13,800 --> 01:12:15,519
Speaker 1: eleven and one in the regular season. You can have

1172
01:12:15,560 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 1: two losses, but your second loss has to come in

1173
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:23,080
Speaker 1: in that conference title game. So Florida State has to.

1174
01:12:24,520 --> 01:12:27,519
Speaker 1: If they accumulate their second loss, I think they go

1175
01:12:27,640 --> 01:12:29,840
Speaker 1: down where the only shot they have would be to

1176
01:12:29,880 --> 01:12:33,080
Speaker 1: win the conference a lah Clemson last year, So we

1177
01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:36,800
Speaker 1: shall see. That's coming up. By the way, I want

1178
01:12:36,840 --> 01:12:40,280
Speaker 1: to share one more totally inane fact and for five

1179
01:12:40,320 --> 01:12:44,080
Speaker 1: of you you'll find this funny or weird, or maybe

1180
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:46,559
Speaker 1: you think, why the hell is he sharing this? But

1181
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:49,240
Speaker 1: I did something that I have never done. I swear

1182
01:12:49,240 --> 01:12:52,160
Speaker 1: in my entire life. I got to the end of

1183
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 1: a chapstick too. I am one of those people. I

1184
01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 1: never have chapstick when I need it. So you go

1185
01:12:58,000 --> 01:12:59,720
Speaker 1: and you're always buying new ones, always buying new ones,

1186
01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:01,679
Speaker 1: and then you find year old stuff and all this stuff, right,

1187
01:13:02,080 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 1: and over time I end up with my little sticks

1188
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:07,559
Speaker 1: of chapstick. You know, I got one near my my

1189
01:13:07,640 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 1: keys are, and one in my car, and one near

1190
01:13:09,920 --> 01:13:13,519
Speaker 1: my bed and all these different things. Right, Well, I

1191
01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:16,000
Speaker 1: finally worked. I think I had this stick of chapstick

1192
01:13:16,080 --> 01:13:19,240
Speaker 1: for three years. I didn't know you could ever get

1193
01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:23,280
Speaker 1: to an end of a chapstick tube, but I finally,

1194
01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:24,920
Speaker 1: for the first time in my life, made it to

1195
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:26,559
Speaker 1: the end of the chapstick tube. I feel like I've

1196
01:13:26,840 --> 01:13:31,000
Speaker 1: finally not wasted money for once on all the unused

1197
01:13:31,080 --> 01:13:33,840
Speaker 1: chapstick that I have lost over the years. I'm sure

1198
01:13:33,840 --> 01:13:37,080
Speaker 1: it's all with all of my missing pairs of sunglasses

1199
01:13:37,120 --> 01:13:40,840
Speaker 1: as well. So with that piece of inane trivia that

1200
01:13:40,920 --> 01:13:43,519
Speaker 1: I hear that podcasters are supposed to share with their

1201
01:13:43,680 --> 01:13:46,680
Speaker 1: with their listeners and viewers, I'm gonna call it for

1202
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:49,559
Speaker 1: twenty four hours and we'll see it when we upload again.