1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 4 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 2: anchors all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, 5 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 2: I'll look at earnings from AI giant Nvidia, along with 6 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: existing home sales data. 7 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:25,279 Speaker 3: I'm Tom Busby in New York. 8 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 4: I'm callin Hepkee here in London, where we're looking ahead 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 4: to the Group of Twenty Leaders summit in Rio. 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 1: I'm Dog Prisner looking ahead to the upcoming rate decision 11 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: from the People's Bank of China. 12 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 5: That's all strain ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 13 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:44,160 Speaker 5: eleven THREEO, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 5: Bloomberg ninety two nine Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirius 15 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 5: XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 16 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 5: dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 17 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 3: Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. 18 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: We've begin today's program with Nvidia, the last of the 19 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 2: Magnificent seven tech giants, reporting its third quarter earnings on Wednesday, 20 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:12,320 Speaker 2: and for more on what to expect from the AI heavyweight, 21 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:16,960 Speaker 2: We're joined by kuon John Savanni, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior semiconductor 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 2: analysts Coon, John, thank you so much for joining us. 23 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 3: It looks like all the stars. 24 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: Have aligned for Nvidia, now the most valuable company on 25 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 2: the planet, a market cap three and a half trillion dollars. 26 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 2: So what are you expecting from its Q three results. 27 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 2: It's first as a member of the Dow Jones Industrial average. 28 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 6: Yeah, we expect nothing different this time, like we have 29 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 6: seen over the last almost eight quarters. Now we again 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 6: expect a very strong beaten race. Our call on that 31 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 6: is a likelihood of the magnitude of the beaten race 32 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 6: to be higher than what we've seen in the last 33 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 6: two quarters. You know, in Q three and Q four 34 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 6: Blackwell was supposed to RAM and they had some delay 35 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 6: which has allowed its existing Hopper product line to expand. 36 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 6: And we have seen no signs of slowing demand and 37 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 6: adoption for Hopper right now in three Q and four 38 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 6: Q until the large cloud customers and hyperscalers really eagerly 39 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 6: wait for the Blackwell shipments in twenty twenty five. 40 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,239 Speaker 2: Well, we know about demand for those Hoppers, the H 41 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 2: two hundred accelerators. How about hardware software data center services. 42 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 2: Are there any weaknesses for Nvidia? And as you said 43 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: about that delay in the Blackwells supply chain issues, have 44 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 2: they all been settled down? 45 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 6: From all of our channel checks and supply checks, it 46 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 6: seems most, or if not all, black Well supply chain 47 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 6: issues have been settled down. We have heard that some 48 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 6: customers are starting to get the shipments as early as 49 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 6: the end of this year, so that's a very promising 50 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 6: good news. And a lot of other large customers are 51 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 6: preparing to accept shipments starting in one queue, so that 52 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 6: suggests there's no more major issues. There will be, however, 53 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 6: Blackwell will be supply constraint as was Hopper in its 54 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 6: initial ramp. 55 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: Well, let me ask you, now that Hopper has about 56 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 2: ninety percent of the market for these types of accelerators, 57 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 2: what will Blackwell mean for Nvidia? And as you said, 58 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: they're ramping up production now you expect deliveries this quarter 59 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 2: next quarter to really speed up. 60 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 3: What will that mean for the company. 61 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, So when you look at in terms of market 62 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 6: share in GPUs for in media, you know they started 63 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 6: out with almost close to like ninety ninety seven ninety 64 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 6: eight percent on a revenue basis, and slowly you know, 65 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 6: they're trickled down to close to I would say low nineties, 66 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 6: if not nineties. We think Blackwell will actually stop that, 67 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 6: won't really call it share laws, but actually increase those number. 68 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 6: You know, Blackwell, especially the cluster of GPUs using their 69 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 6: envi link technology has really up their game if you 70 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 6: can even believe that's possible, and there is no other 71 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 6: competent of end to end product out there, so actually 72 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 6: that increases their motive, even makes the share more defensible. 73 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 2: And they sell to the big East. There's Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, 74 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 2: all of them big buyers. What about the competition though, 75 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 2: I mean we've heard Apple, Amazon now making their own 76 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 2: AI accelerators, their own GPUs. How does that affect Nvidio 77 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 2: or does it at all? 78 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 6: I mean it does look in terms of long term 79 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 6: and in terms of the size of opportunity, it does 80 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 6: affect A six which are the chips that these customers 81 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 6: designed for themselves, which are called you know, those are 82 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 6: the largest risk to Nvidia because frankly, there is no 83 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 6: other sort of semiconductor company which is a huge risk 84 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 6: to them. So that is definitely a large risk. All 85 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 6: of these you know, its largest buyers have already started 86 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 6: to adopt their some of them their own A six 87 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 6: in a lot of volume. There's also a possibility like 88 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 6: someone like let's say Amazon, who has successfully using their 89 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 6: A six for a while now, are have also started 90 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 6: to offer those to their own cloud customers as an 91 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 6: alternative to Nvidia's GPUs that are running in Amazon's cloud, 92 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 6: So that is definitely a risk. However, this the AA rarely, 93 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 6: we think is in the early innings. What it means is, 94 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 6: as of this point, neither their customers, their direct customers 95 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 6: are slowing down the buying our media chips. Neither are 96 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 6: their customers customers are slowing down using of Nvidia chips. 97 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 6: So in the near term you might see both in 98 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 6: Vidia's GPUs and A six continue to grow significantly cause 99 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 6: because there's a lot of demand appetite. But once this 100 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 6: sort of demand rarely matures, that is when we'll really 101 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 6: see that fight for each dollar spend. 102 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:46,119 Speaker 3: Wow. 103 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 2: And there's no end, no view right now of when 104 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 2: that will happen, that slow down, not yet anyway. 105 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 6: No, we're I mean, we keep that's the biggest question 106 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 6: we get, right and we keep a very close eye 107 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 6: on it every quarter. And as we have seen from 108 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 6: Q three earnings from most of its largest customers, most 109 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 6: of the enterprise. The appetite has actually increased, if you 110 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 6: might even believe that in twenty twenty five looks like 111 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 6: another recorder in terms of CAPEX spend for these AI 112 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 6: GPUs and hardware and unbelievable. 113 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 2: Now we know all these other companies, these big tech companies, 114 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 2: small tech companies. 115 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 3: Where they're putting. 116 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 2: Their CAPEX is in AI. Where is Nvidia putting their capex? 117 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 6: Well, yeah, so you know since the launch of its 118 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 6: first sort of aserver GPUs, which was called the MPa 119 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 6: product line. So, first of all, in media, as a 120 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 6: fablus semicinetor company, what it means is does not manufacture 121 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 6: or produce its own shifts. So usually these fablust companies 122 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 6: do not spend a lot in CAPEX. They spend a 123 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 6: lot more in op x. Their CAPEX is generally just 124 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 6: you know, having test equipments, packaging equipments, and just R 125 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 6: and D equipments needed to develop their products and their chips. 126 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,239 Speaker 2: Well, Nvidia third quarter earnings out this Wednesday are thanks 127 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 2: to Kon John Sobonnie Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analyst. We 128 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,679 Speaker 2: move next to a look at the uneven US housing 129 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 2: market with existing sales for the month of October that 130 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 2: is out this Thursday. Also, what earnings from Home Depot 131 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: last week and from Low's this Tuesday tell us about 132 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 2: the US housing market. And for more we're joined by 133 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 2: Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analyst. Drew bottom line, 134 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 2: existing home sales not doing well, on track for the 135 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 2: worst year since twenty ten. That's according to the National 136 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 2: Association of Realtors. So what gives and what are you 137 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: expecting for the month of October. 138 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 7: So we do think we could see some improvement in 139 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 7: existing home sales in October, and that's really reflective of 140 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 7: the more favorable mortgage rate environment that we had during September. 141 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 7: Remember these are contract closing, so there's typically a thirty 142 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 7: to sixty day like from when a deal is signed. 143 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 7: That being said, the date is going to be stale 144 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 7: before it even comes out. I mean the rate when 145 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 7: a thirty year mortgage has gone from the lowes six 146 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 7: percent range in September to above seven percent in just 147 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 7: a matter of weeks. Despite the FED cutting rates, the 148 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 7: total seventy five basis points, and we've seen demand EBB 149 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 7: and flow with these fluctuations. So we think you could 150 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 7: see some improvement reflecting September, but like we said, we 151 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 7: think it's going to be stale and there's going to 152 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 7: be pressure going forward. If we zoom out just a 153 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 7: little bit, look at the bigger picture. Existing home sales 154 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 7: continue to sit below a four million analyzed rate, and 155 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 7: current activity is the lowest in over a decade, and 156 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 7: that really afflects the affordability picture, which continues to hover 157 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 7: near historically at the levels. 158 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 2: I mean those record high prices on homes, mortgage rates 159 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 2: as you said back, you know, near seven percent, but 160 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 2: also the cost of home ownership, right insurance, maintenance, lawn care, 161 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 2: upgrades for furniture, and more. 162 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a good point, and it's a combination of 163 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 7: all those factors. And I think you hit the nail 164 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 7: on the head when you mentioned prices, because mortgage rates 165 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 7: get a lot of attention, particularly when we pay such 166 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 7: close attention to what the FED is going to do. 167 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 7: But home prices are up over fifty percent prior to 168 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 7: the pandemic, and payments have become increasingly disconnected from incomes. 169 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 7: We did an analysis that shows that property values we 170 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 7: need to fall about thirty percent for monthly payments relative 171 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 7: to incomes to return to historical levels. So we're not 172 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 7: saying that you're going to see that type of decline 173 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:18,719 Speaker 7: at the national level in the near term, but I 174 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 7: think it illustrates the problem. So we're going to need 175 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 7: some combination of you know, maybe prices coming down a bit, 176 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 7: rates moderating, and then further income growth in order to 177 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 7: get things headed in the right direction. And it's probably 178 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 7: going to take some time. 179 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, besides what we saw in two thousand 180 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 2: and eight, what can bring the price of these homes 181 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:38,559 Speaker 2: to a more reasonable level. 182 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 7: Well, I think one thing you're starting to see is 183 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 7: that we're having more inventory come to market. You know, 184 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 7: the lack of resale inventory has been one of the 185 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 7: key themes really over the last several years, and it's 186 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 7: been one of the reasons why the new home market 187 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 7: has done so well. But if we look in some 188 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 7: markets around the country, in Texas and in Florida, we're 189 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 7: starting to see inventory levels which are approaching or exceeding 190 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 7: those in twenty nineteen. And it's due to the fact 191 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 7: that you have weaker demands, so homes are sitting on 192 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 7: the market longer and you also have more starting to 193 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 7: come to market. So as we get that build up, 194 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 7: we think that's going to put some downward pressure on prices. 195 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,080 Speaker 2: So you think we're still going to see a shift 196 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 2: in population to sun Belt states where where the last 197 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 2: four years they've exploded in home sales, home building, or 198 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 2: is it going to even off other parts of the 199 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: country maybe. 200 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 7: Well, I think that's still where you're going to see 201 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 7: the population over time continue to grow. That's where, at 202 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 7: least on a relative basis, affordability is. That's where a 203 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 7: majority of the jobs are compared to some of the 204 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,319 Speaker 7: slower markets in the Midwest and the Northeast. And that's 205 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 7: why you see that the builders continue to grow there. 206 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 7: That's where they continue to expand their communities and purchase 207 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 7: more land because we do think that, you know, bigger 208 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 7: picture and longer term, that's where a lot of the 209 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 7: growth in the country will be. 210 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 3: Well, let's hope we see more. Hey, I want to 211 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 3: pivot to last week. 212 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 2: Now, we got home depots earnings better than foregasts, even 213 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,559 Speaker 2: though sales actually down again. That boost and sales though 214 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 2: mostly for the wrong reason on storms and and you know, 215 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 2: and extended warmer weather what does that tell us about 216 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 2: the market, the housing market, And you know, I look ahead, 217 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 2: if you can to Low's earnings, is it going to 218 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: tell us the same thing this week? 219 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, So starting with Lows, we're looking for a low 220 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,959 Speaker 7: single digit decline in same store sales, which would be 221 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 7: the eighth straight quarter of declining seam store sales. You know, 222 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 7: there could be some upside to the numbers based on 223 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 7: what we did hear from Home Depot. As you mentioned, 224 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 7: we've had warm, dry weather across you know, most of 225 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 7: the country for the last several months, and that's provide 226 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 7: a better than expected lift to some of the seasonal 227 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 7: and outdoor categories, you know, and you also pointed to 228 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 7: the hurricane activity. Home Depot called out a two hundred 229 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 7: million dollar benefit related to the storms, you know, as 230 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 7: they sold more items such as you know, Lombard generators, 231 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 7: and that contributed about fifty basis points seam store sales. Now, 232 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,040 Speaker 7: we think Lows could see an even barre lift from 233 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 7: the storms just given their exposure to some of the 234 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 7: impacted markets. They've got about twenty five percent of their 235 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 7: store base in those Southern states compared to about eighteen 236 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 7: percent for Home Depot. But you know, stepping back when 237 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 7: we think about the core business. While it does appear 238 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 7: to be maybe bouncing along the bottom and stabilizing a 239 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 7: little bit, and you know, comps will certainly be easier 240 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 7: in coming quarters, there's still some headwinds out there. You have, 241 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 7: you know, consumers who continue to grapple with the cumulative 242 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 7: impact of inflation. Over the last couple of years, both 243 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,359 Speaker 7: companies have called out more cautious consumers due to economic uncertainty. 244 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 7: And as we've discussed, housing activity is extremely depressed. You've 245 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 7: got you know, volumes at the lowest level and over 246 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 7: a decade, there's still some difficulties out there for the industry. 247 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 2: Lows Q three earnings out on Tuesday, October. Existing home 248 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 2: sales out on Thursday. Our thanks to Drew Redding, Bloomberg 249 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 2: Intelligence US home building analysts, and coming up on Bloomberg 250 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 2: day Break weekend, we'll look ahead to the Group of 251 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 2: Twenty Leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro. I'm Tom Busby, 252 00:12:56,480 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our 253 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 2: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 254 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 2: the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up 255 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 2: later in our program will look ahead to the pboc's 256 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 2: upcoming great Decision. But first G twenty leaders gather in 257 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 2: Rio de Janio, Brazil, this Monday and Tuesday for what'll 258 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 2: surely be US President Joe biden swansong as focus shifts 259 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 2: to President elect Trump's return now, despite the threat of 260 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 2: Trump tariffs dealing with a more volatile White House. 261 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:36,319 Speaker 3: For Europe, the. 262 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 2: Issue of top concern is Ukraine. For more, Let's go 263 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 2: to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline 264 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:44,199 Speaker 2: Hepgar Tom. 265 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,960 Speaker 4: The geopolitical landscape has already shifted radically as the world 266 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 4: awaits a Trump white House and Republican control of the 267 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:55,520 Speaker 4: US government. The Biden administration is rushing aid to Ukraine 268 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 4: in its final weeks in power, with US Sector of 269 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 4: State Ashley blinkn say that every dollar we have at 270 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 4: our disposal is being pushed to Ukraine, but others are 271 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 4: getting cold feet, like South Korea having second thoughts about 272 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 4: the possibility of sending weapons directly to Ukraine. Now, the 273 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 4: President elect pledged on the campaign trail to end the 274 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 4: war within twenty four hours by getting Russia and Ukraine 275 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 4: to negotiate in a moment, I'm going to get the 276 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 4: view on what to expect from the group of twenty 277 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 4: leaders who are meeting in Brazil with Bloomberg Sylvia Westall. 278 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 4: But first I wanted to bring you two perspectives on 279 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 4: these security challenges now facing Europe. The former NATO Secretary 280 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 4: General Jen Stoltenberg has been discussing this with Bloomberg's farcin 281 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 4: in Laqua. She asked him about Donald Trump's claim that 282 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 4: he could end the war in Ukraine in a day. 283 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 8: The quickest way to end the war is to do 284 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 8: so war, but that will not bring peace, That will 285 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 8: bring occupation of Ukraine, and it will make the whole 286 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 8: world more dangerous because a message tend to pressent Purteen 287 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 8: but also the other authoritarian leaders is that when they 288 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 8: use force, when they invade in all the country, they 289 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 8: get what they want. So it's in our security interest 290 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 8: to ensure that the Ukraine prevails. So the challenge is 291 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 8: to end the war in a way that doesn't need 292 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 8: you occupation, but to end the war in a way 293 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 8: where Ukraine prevails as a suffiate, independent nation. At some 294 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 8: stage there has to be some kind of political negotiated solution. 295 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 8: But you know, what happens around the negotiating table is 296 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 8: so close a link to the strength on the battlefield. 297 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 8: So if you want a negotiated solution to the war 298 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 8: where you Ukraine prevails as a democratic state in Europe, 299 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 8: then we need to provide military support to Ukraine. 300 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 9: So what does that look like, that solution And is 301 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 9: there a danger that the US actually you know, manages 302 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 9: to cobble something together, some kind of agreement without the 303 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 9: guarantee from the US side of Ukraine's sovereignty. 304 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 8: Well, it's for Ukrainians to decide what will be would 305 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 8: be acceptable solution, but there has to be at least 306 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 8: two elements. One is a line agreed. But second, when 307 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 8: such a line is agreed, then we need to ensure 308 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 8: that actually it stops there because we have agreed or 309 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 8: the Ukrainians have agreed lines with Russia before when they 310 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 8: annexed Cramea. I'm back in twenty fourteen, we had something 311 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 8: called minskwom there was a line. Then Russia violated that 312 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 8: and we've got Minsk to a line further west, and 313 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 8: then the Russian waited for seven years and invade on 314 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 8: the full scale Ukraine. So we cannot have what theyre 315 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 8: called Minsk Tree, yet another line which is not respected. 316 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 8: So when a line is agreed, we need some kind 317 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 8: of guarantee that Russia doesn't continue after reorganizing their troops 318 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 8: and THEREFO. We need either to arm the Ukrainian so 319 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 8: they can deter your future reggression themselves, and or some 320 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 8: kind of security guarantees. And NATO membership is of course 321 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 8: the ultimate security garante for Ukraine. 322 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 4: That was the former NATO boss ya In Stoltenberg speaking 323 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 4: to Bloomberg's farc In Laqua. Let's get another view now 324 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:13,439 Speaker 4: from Finland, which joined NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine. The 325 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 4: Finnish President Alexander Stubb has been speaking into Bloomberg's Jumana 326 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 4: Bisecchi after his call with the US president elect. She 327 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 4: asked him about his expectations for the second Trump presidency. 328 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 10: Of course, focused very much on US foreign policy under Trump, 329 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 10: and I think his agenda is quite clear. 330 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 3: He talks about ending the war. 331 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 10: In Ukraine, so we discussed that, it talks about ending 332 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,959 Speaker 10: the war in the Middle East. He talks about the 333 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:44,919 Speaker 10: US as a competitor to China. 334 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 3: We talked about that. 335 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 10: He talked about Europe taking more responsibility for its own 336 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 10: defense and security. We talked about that, so I think 337 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 10: it's pretty clear speak when you talk about American foreign 338 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 10: posit Then of course there will be challenges. You know, 339 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 10: tariffs can be a challenge, climate issues can be a challenge. 340 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 10: But the truth is that throughout history of the United 341 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,199 Speaker 10: States and Europe have usually seen eye to eye, and 342 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 10: I'm sure we'll be doing that again in the next 343 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 10: four years. 344 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 11: Do you expect perhaps this next turn to be less 345 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 11: combative towards Europe. 346 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,359 Speaker 10: I think the United States needs Europe, but Europe needs 347 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 10: to understand that the United States has changed. That means 348 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 10: that we need to take more responsibility for what we do, 349 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 10: for instance, in terms of security. And when that happens, 350 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 10: I think the United States, whose number one competitor is China, 351 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 10: will look at Europe and say, okay, about twenty twenty 352 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 10: five percent of our allies are right there in Europe. 353 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 10: Let's play ball with those guys. 354 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 11: Can I just pick up on Ukraine. I know you 355 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 11: spoke about it with President Trump, and he seems to 356 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 11: think that he can secure peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. 357 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 11: If that does happen, what is the likelihood that it's 358 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 11: done in a way that's just unfair for Ukraine. 359 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 10: Well, in my mind, Ukraine needs four things. One is territory, 360 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 10: and here we don't know where things are going to settle. 361 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 10: The second one is security guarantees, so probably territory and 362 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,880 Speaker 10: security guarantees in these negotiations will go hand in hand, 363 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,399 Speaker 10: and of course in my mind eventually EU membership and 364 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 10: NATO membership. The third one is justice, so Russian war 365 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 10: criminals indicted. And then the low hanging fruit is actually 366 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 10: number four, which is reconstruction. 367 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 3: It's difficult to say at this stage, but I. 368 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,359 Speaker 10: Think we in Europe and the rest of the world 369 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 10: needs to understand that Donald Trump is very serious about 370 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 10: getting a piece deal sooner rather than later. I have 371 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 10: myself said that there's a window of opportunity for these 372 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 10: negotiations between the election and the inauguration day. Let's see 373 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 10: what happens. 374 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 4: That was Finland's President Alexander Stubb speaking to Bloomberg's Jimana 375 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 4: Bisecchi at the COP twenty nine Climate conference in Baku 376 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 4: in Azerbaijan. More than two and a half years into 377 00:19:56,119 --> 00:20:00,360 Speaker 4: the war, Ukraine has steadily lost territory to Russia. There 378 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 4: are preliminary plans for a meeting between the Ukrainian President 379 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 4: Vlodomi Zelenski and President elect Trump, according to Kiev's top diplomat, 380 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 4: but no timing. Bloomberg's managing editor for Russia, the Middle East, 381 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 4: and Africa Economy and Government, Sylvia Westall, has been taking 382 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 4: me through what to expect from the Group of twenty 383 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:26,640 Speaker 4: gathering in Latin America and how much Ukraine will feature. 384 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 12: It's an interesting G twenty, and it's obviously a big 385 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 12: showcase for Lula. It's always sort of, you know, the 386 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 12: leaders try and shape kind of what they want this 387 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 12: to be about. I mean, Brazil's made it quite clear 388 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 12: that they want this summit not to really focus on 389 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 12: things like wars, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the current conflicts 390 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 12: in the Middle East, and they want to look at 391 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 12: things like trade and climate and finance. But of course, 392 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 12: because of world events, other things are going to dominate, 393 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 12: and one of those things, as you mentioned before, is 394 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 12: Donald Trump. Of course, so you've got Biden and She 395 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 12: planning to meet, but really the focus is on Trump 396 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 12: and what happens next. So in that sense, it's a 397 00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 12: kind of chickyd twenty for Brazil to handle because all 398 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 12: the kind of topics it wants to focus on are 399 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 12: kind of being overtaken by events, both you know, in 400 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 12: the US and elsewhere in the world. 401 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,120 Speaker 4: Ukraine's European allies have been concerned that Trump will pull 402 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,959 Speaker 4: the plug on the embattled country and push the burden 403 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,680 Speaker 4: to Europe. Do we expect a major policy shift? 404 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 12: Well, Ukraine at the moment, according to you know, some 405 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 12: of the officials we've talked to in preparations for the 406 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 12: G twenty, isn't really figuring very hard on the agenda 407 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 12: again because Brazil doesn't really want it to and we 408 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 12: know that. You know, there have been discussions each D 409 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 12: twenty whether presidents Zelenski will actually turn up or do 410 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 12: a virtual address. It doesn't look like that's going to 411 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 12: happen this one. You know, in the last G twenty, 412 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 12: Ukraine was a very prickly topic, and so you know, 413 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 12: Ukraine is very worried looking at the G twenty and 414 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 12: further on into the Trump era that Trump, you know, 415 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 12: will apply pressure on it to give up land in 416 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 12: peace talks with Russia and cut back on this financial 417 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 12: and military support. I think that risk is there, and 418 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 12: you know, that's happening as you know, Russia's making this 419 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 12: sort of important headway on the ground in Ukraine. So 420 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 12: Russia feels it's in a stronger position right now. And 421 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 12: you know, the big question is whether you know Ukraine, 422 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,880 Speaker 12: you know will well, whether the US will eventually allow 423 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 12: Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory with Western arms. 424 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 12: But I do think actually on the Russian side as well, 425 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 12: there is concern about what that Trump era might bring. 426 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 12: So I think the G twenty probably isn't going to 427 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 12: offer and many clues as to where Ukraine's where that 428 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 12: is going, but it's definitely going to highlight some of 429 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 12: the concerns that countries involve have. 430 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 4: In terms of Trump's stance. What about the Middle East 431 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 4: as well, obviously hoping that Trump's returned to the White 432 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 4: House will help in terms of cooperation for them in 433 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,479 Speaker 4: the Middle East on diplomacy and other issues. Again, how 434 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 4: much will that features, you say, the hosts of the 435 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 4: G twenty gathering sort of don't really want conflicts to dominate. 436 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 4: How much will we hear about the Middle East? 437 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 12: Mm hmm, Well, I think it was going to have 438 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 12: to come up because it is you know, this you know, 439 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 12: still going on, and this the conflict's spread now into 440 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 12: Lebelon with the violence between Hezbolla and Israel. I think, 441 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 12: you know, as as we look forward to to the 442 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 12: Trump administration. Trump applied this maximum pressure policy towards Iran 443 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 12: and when he was last in the White House, and 444 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 12: that definitely stoked tensions in the region. And so the 445 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,360 Speaker 12: expectation is that that's coming up. So I think there's 446 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 12: gonna be a lot of you know, looking forward, you know, 447 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 12: towards questions about whether there can be any kind of 448 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 12: cease fire between Israel and Hezbolla, what can be happening next, 449 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,120 Speaker 12: and this quite big question mark over where that policy 450 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 12: will head in the US and whether you know, these 451 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 12: appointments of these sort of very sort of pro Israel 452 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,919 Speaker 12: members to Trump's administration will mean that that kind of 453 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 12: aggravates tensions in the Middle East and alienates Arab countries 454 00:23:59,320 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 12: as well. 455 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,879 Speaker 4: Russia's Varn Minister Sergei Lavrov will be attending the summit 456 00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 4: in Brazil on Monday and Tuesday, representing Russia, not Putin himself. 457 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 4: Why and what will be Russia's role here? 458 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 12: Sure, so it's very difficult for Putin to turn up 459 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 12: pop up in places around the world because of this 460 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 12: International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes due to 461 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 12: the invasion of Ukraine. He also has skipped several meetings 462 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 12: you know, elsewhere in the world that included in South Africa. 463 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 12: South Africa politely asked Putin not to turn up because 464 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,720 Speaker 12: these countries like Brazil as well, would be obligated to 465 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 12: arrest him under those rules of the ICC. So you know, 466 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 12: that's Lavov is usually the person who takes his place. 467 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 12: You know, Russia has been using these international events like 468 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,719 Speaker 12: the Bricks that it hosted earlier this year in Russia 469 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 12: and elsewhere to show that Russia is not isolated from 470 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 12: the world, though of course, if Putin can't turn up 471 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 12: to these events, it does showcases isolation. So I think 472 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 12: Russia will be using that as a platform to justify 473 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 12: its invasion of Ukraine, explain its perspective on what it 474 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 12: thinks will happen next. And it's definitely Russia's definitely in 475 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 12: a position of a bit more strength right now because 476 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,439 Speaker 12: of what's happening on the battlefield and the expectation that 477 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 12: despite the big uncertainties about what Trump will bring that 478 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 12: his stance on Ukraine will perhaps be beneficial to Russia. 479 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 4: That was Sylvia west Or, Bloomberg's managing editor for Russia, 480 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,119 Speaker 4: the Middle East and Africa, Economy and government. European Union 481 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 4: leaders are trying to work out whether they can keep 482 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 4: the Ukrainian war effort going if Trump decides to shut 483 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 4: off support from the US. Certainly much in the world 484 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 4: is being reconsidered after the presidential election, and potentially with 485 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 4: big consequences for Europe. I'm Caroline Hepge here in London. 486 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 4: You can catch us every weekday morning for Blueberg Daybreak. 487 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 4: You're at beginning at six am in London. That's one 488 00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 4: am on Wall Street. Tom. 489 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 2: Thank you, Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break 490 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 2: weekend to look ahead to a rate decision this week 491 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 2: from the PBOC. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. 492 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,280 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 493 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 2: the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 494 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 2: anchors all around the world. This week of big decision 495 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 2: on rates from the People's Bank of China. For more, 496 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 2: let's go to Daybreak Asia podcast host Doug Krisner. 497 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 3: Tom. 498 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,880 Speaker 1: Since late September, the Chinese government has launched coordinated support 499 00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 1: focused on lifting economic growth and fighting deflation, and recently 500 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,959 Speaker 1: taxes for both home buyers and property developers have been 501 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: cut as the government tries to put a floor under 502 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 1: falling prices. Now in the week ahead, the Chinese Central 503 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 1: Bank will set its rate policy. For a preview, I'm 504 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,159 Speaker 1: joined by Eric Ju, who covers China for Bloomberg Economics. 505 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 1: Eric joins us from our studios in Hong Kong. Eric, 506 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: thanks for your time. We recently got the inflation data 507 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: for China, and I'm going to ask you to start there. 508 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: Consumer prices, for example, showing their first pickup in the 509 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,199 Speaker 1: core rate since April, and I was reading some of 510 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 1: your analysis. You called it an encouraging sign in an 511 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 1: otherwise weak report. Perhaps a little more troubling the fact 512 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 1: that factory gay deflation deepened. Is this something the PBOC 513 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,399 Speaker 1: must consider at its next meeting. 514 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 13: I think PBOC has signaled recently that, you know, the 515 00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 13: price has become more important for their partitition. I think 516 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 13: one of their targets is, of course, except for you know, 517 00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 13: supporting the recovery, they really want to you know, get inflation. 518 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 3: Get it. 519 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 13: Call me out of the risk of deflation. So I 520 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 13: think they would try you know, their best, you know, 521 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 13: to try to boost the prices up. But I think 522 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 13: PBOC alone is unable to fulfill that goal. We do 523 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 13: need you know, other department like especially physical policy also 524 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 13: to work their way. So it's it's not only the 525 00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:07,440 Speaker 13: pibis's own job. 526 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: What about the stimulus measures that Beijing has already rolled out, 527 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,439 Speaker 1: how would you evaluate them? 528 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 13: First of all, it's a big shift. It's not only 529 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 13: from our economics view, we also you know, chat with investors, 530 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 13: with clients and all the people. Most of people think 531 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,520 Speaker 13: since late September there is a big party shift, which 532 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 13: signals that the government is not now willing, you know, 533 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 13: really willing to fix the economic issues. They have rolled 534 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 13: out you know, a couple of different measures, and I 535 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 13: think one encouraging science. They also started to you know, 536 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 13: address some structural issues, not only you know, short term 537 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 13: cyclical things like you know, local government death swap. They're 538 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 13: also trying to also fix some oversupply in the housing market. 539 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 13: So they start to address those problems. But I think 540 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 13: one remaining concern is still soon they can you know, 541 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 13: really deliver those policies. They have made a lot of announcement. 542 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 13: They have committed to do this, commit to do that. 543 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 13: But I think on the ground the people were still 544 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 13: you know, looking for you know, it's special for local governments. 545 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 13: How are they going to really deliver those policies. I 546 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 13: think the October data has shown some initial rebound, but 547 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 13: I think that's more related to some sentiment. 548 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 1: This is coming at a very interesting time because we 549 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: have a new administration in the US. It will be 550 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: taking office in January when Donald Trump is sworn in 551 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: for the second time. One of the things that he 552 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: has discussed mightily is tariffs on imported goods from China. 553 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 1: Now we know that the export sector has been a 554 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 1: bright spot for the Chinese economy. To what extent is 555 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: there risk here right now with some more tariffs. 556 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 13: I think it's a real risk, and it can be 557 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 13: a very big risk because of course we don't know 558 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 13: how the details yet, the timetable, so how Trump is 559 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:02,800 Speaker 13: going to start his terriiff, But definitely we think we'll 560 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 13: look we're expecting probably another the second you know, the 561 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 13: trade war in his second term. But what's the only 562 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 13: thing uncertain is whether we're going to get you know, 563 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 13: sixty percent teriff like Trump had said during his campaign. 564 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 13: So if that's sixty percent, I think that will be 565 00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 13: a very big risk because we have some model that 566 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 13: predicting a sixty percent tariff can essentially, you know, reduce 567 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 13: China US trade basically, you know, near to zero. So 568 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 13: that's a very big shot to economy. But in the end, 569 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 13: we think probably we won't get that as high as that. 570 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,720 Speaker 13: You know, there still will be negotiation, there will still 571 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 13: be bargaining. So the final result is still highly uncertain 572 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,479 Speaker 13: at this point. But we think China will be you know, 573 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,840 Speaker 13: preparing for the worst scenario, and they're also you know, 574 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 13: we're planning for what kind of retaliation China will do, 575 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 13: what kind of solutions they can do to you know, 576 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 13: try to mitigate, to reduce the tariffing pat as much 577 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 13: as you can. 578 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's been a lot of questioning as to whether 579 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: or not this is really the beginning of the negotiating strategy. 580 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 1: Do you think there is room between Washington and Beijing 581 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 1: to negotiate a trade policy that benefits both parties equally? 582 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 3: I think so. 583 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 13: I think so. I think there's still room for negotiation 584 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 13: at least, you know, China probably compared to the first 585 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,800 Speaker 13: time Trump poarding office, China would have no more tools, 586 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 13: you know, to retaliate, including more exports control, you know, 587 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 13: and those rare materials. China has most of the outputs. 588 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 13: So I think also considering that Trump has to consider 589 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 13: what's a tariff impact on the domestic economy as well, Right, 590 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,400 Speaker 13: if you impose such a high tariff, that would definitely 591 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 13: also influence your domestic consumers. So I think at the 592 00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 13: end Trump's side will also do some calculation, right, kinds 593 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 13: of goods wanting post that will have the minimum impact 594 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 13: on my own colomy. And at the same time, China 595 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 13: would also, you know, try to negotiate you to try 596 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 13: to have something on a table. Tellian Trump, so what 597 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 13: we're going to retaliate if you do this, if you 598 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 13: do that, and let's see what negotiation can go on. 599 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 1: Eric, thanks so much for being with us. S Bloomberg's 600 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 1: Eric jew who covers China for Bloomberg Economics. We move 601 00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 1: next to geopolitics and the upcoming G twenty summit in 602 00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: Riodesian Narro, Brazil. The list of attendees reflects major changes 603 00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: in leadership among several member nations. Mexico's new president Claudia 604 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 1: Schinbaum will be there, as will Britain's new Prime Minister 605 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 1: Keir Starmer. A weekend German Chancellor all Off Schultz will attend, 606 00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: along with the Lane Duck, US President Joe Biden and 607 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 1: the shadow of his successor, President elect Donald Trump. I 608 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 1: think it's fair to say will loom large for a 609 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 1: closer look at what we might expect. We're joined by 610 00:32:57,520 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: Daniel ten Kid. 611 00:32:58,520 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 3: He is Asia. 612 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 1: Ecogov, executive editor for Bloomberg News. Dan joins us from 613 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: our studios in Hong Kong. The G twenty I think 614 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 1: represents some eighty five percent of global GDP seventy five 615 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 1: percent of world trade. It doesn't appear there is going 616 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 1: to be a group that could challenge the G twenty, 617 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 1: And I'm thinking of the recent summit of the Bricks 618 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:23,480 Speaker 1: Plus Nations hosted by Vladimir Putin in Kazan, Russia. Is 619 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,720 Speaker 1: it safe to say that there's not going to be 620 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 1: a rival for the G twenty for some time? 621 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,640 Speaker 14: Well, the G twenty really brings these various groups together. 622 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 14: So you have the G seven on the one hand, 623 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 14: which is the US and its allies basically, and then 624 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 14: you have the Bricks Plus Agreement which is grouping, which 625 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 14: is expanding persistently, but China is really in Russia are 626 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 14: both trying to use that group to advance their own 627 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 14: interest and use it as a counterweight to the G 628 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,720 Speaker 14: seven and the US led world order. Now, the G 629 00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 14: twenty kind of brings these groups together in a lot 630 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 14: of ways and is the only forum really that has 631 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 14: all of them in one place, so they can really 632 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 14: haggle over kind of the tough issues facing the globe 633 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:10,239 Speaker 14: at any given time. 634 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 1: I was reading a piece in Foreign Affairs magazine, and 635 00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 1: one line from this piece struck me. The essence of 636 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 1: Trump's approach to foreign policy is naked transactionalism, and that 637 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,360 Speaker 1: remains unchanged. Is that a fair statement? 638 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:25,359 Speaker 3: Yeah? 639 00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 14: I mean we're already hearing about countries trying to say, Okay, 640 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 14: what can we give Trump? What do we have to offer? 641 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 14: And usually that involves what can we buy from the US? 642 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 14: Can we buy more energy? Can we buy more corn 643 00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 14: agricultural goods? You know, you need to come in with 644 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,279 Speaker 14: some sort of offer with Trump. Now, there is kind 645 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:51,120 Speaker 14: of a question about whether Trump's view of tariffs has changed, 646 00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 14: and there's first term, he was talking a lot about 647 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 14: the US trade deficit, and I think that is top 648 00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 14: of mind for Trump. But he's also talked about tariffs 649 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,279 Speaker 14: as a way to generate revenues in the US and 650 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 14: to lower investment. 651 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 3: So that's a big question. 652 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,960 Speaker 14: Is he going to come right out on day one 653 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 14: with sixty percent tariffs on China and twenty percent tariffs 654 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 14: on the rest of the world. 655 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 1: One of the things that I think that G twenty 656 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:19,280 Speaker 1: will have to deal with is the issue of Ukraine. 657 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,520 Speaker 1: The Biden administration took the lead on imposing sanctions on 658 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,960 Speaker 1: Russia and many Russian officials after Ukraine was invaded. Now 659 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,360 Speaker 1: we have North Korean troops joining Russian forces near the 660 00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:36,280 Speaker 1: border with Ukraine. Is this going to be an important 661 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 1: pressure point that will try to get resolved at this 662 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,360 Speaker 1: summit or or do you think it's it's going to 663 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: take some time for clarity to emerge. 664 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:49,280 Speaker 14: Well, certainly the war in Ukraine has dominated G twenty 665 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:53,839 Speaker 14: discussion since Vladimir Putin invaded in twenty twenty two, so 666 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,960 Speaker 14: no doubt that that will be a key talking point. 667 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 14: The question really is how does Trump change the conversation there? 668 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,160 Speaker 14: Before it was kind of the G seven aligning up 669 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 14: against Russia, primarily on how strong the language should be 670 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 14: in condemning Russia for the invasion. Trump has promised to 671 00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 14: end the war. There's a lot of exhaustion among a 672 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,799 Speaker 14: lot of the countries, particularly in the Global South, to 673 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,319 Speaker 14: end the war, and so you might the big question 674 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:30,960 Speaker 14: would be whether you see some more conciliatory language, people 675 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 14: talking about talks, negotiations, how do we put an end 676 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,400 Speaker 14: to the war. So that could be the big difference 677 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 14: this time around. 678 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,400 Speaker 1: Typically, when we think of economic issues, it's the G 679 00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:45,360 Speaker 1: twenty summit of finance ministers that kind of tackles those issues. 680 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,960 Speaker 1: But I was struck by a lot of commentary recently 681 00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 1: regarding Trump's reelection as this being another example of an 682 00:36:53,680 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 1: anti incumbency push across a number of jurisdictions globally. When 683 00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:04,080 Speaker 1: you consider that fact that may have been driven largely 684 00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,960 Speaker 1: by dissatisfaction with the way a number of economies have 685 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: been performing the stubbornness of inflation. Are economic issues beyond 686 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,319 Speaker 1: trade going to come up at this meeting? Do you 687 00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 1: think independent of the G twenty Finance minister's meeting. 688 00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 14: Yeah, certainly, I mean the Finance minister's meetings kind of 689 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,240 Speaker 14: set the table for the leaders meetings, both at APEX 690 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 14: and at the G twenty. And if you look back 691 00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,320 Speaker 14: at who's still around from the G seven to a 692 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 14: few months ago, you know you'll have Biden representing the 693 00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:37,880 Speaker 14: US at this meeting, both meetings, the APEC and G twenty, 694 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,759 Speaker 14: but he's not going to be around much longer. You 695 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,279 Speaker 14: have a new prime minister in Japan, you have a 696 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 14: new prime minister in the UK. A lot of other 697 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:50,360 Speaker 14: countries have seen leadership changes. Trudeau is hanging by the 698 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 14: ropes in Canada, so a lot of the incumbents have 699 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,320 Speaker 14: taken a beating this year in the year of elections, 700 00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,880 Speaker 14: and inflation is a big reason for that. It's coming 701 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 14: has come down of late, but voters are still struck 702 00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:06,880 Speaker 14: over the past couple of years by higher prices. They 703 00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 14: see it every time they go to the grocery store, 704 00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:13,239 Speaker 14: and so that's certainly going to hang over everything that 705 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:14,600 Speaker 14: they discuss this week. 706 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:16,840 Speaker 1: Dan, thanks so much for helping us set up the 707 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,520 Speaker 1: G twenty summit in the coming week. He's Dan ten 708 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 1: Kate Bloomberg News Asia ECO Gov executive editor, joining us 709 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,600 Speaker 1: from our studios in Hong Kong. I'm Doug Prisner. Catch 710 00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 1: us weekdays for the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available 711 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. 712 00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,040 Speaker 2: Tom, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition 713 00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,919 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning 714 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 2: at five am Wall Street Time for the latest on 715 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,719 Speaker 2: markets overseas and the news you need to start your day. 716 00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:44,879 Speaker 3: I'm Tom Busby. Stay with us. 717 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:49,279 Speaker 2: Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.