1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,640 Speaker 1: I want to take a moment to encourage you to 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: get out and vote early, and to get out and 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 1: vote early for Donald Trump and JD Vans. This is 4 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: absolutely the most important election we have seen todate. I 5 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: truly do not believe that our country can handle another 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: four years of what we have seen under Joe Biden 7 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: and Kamala Harris. I really do believe that they hate 8 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: this country. They hate you and me. Joe Biden called 9 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: us garbage recently. We know that Hillary Clinton called us deplorables. Previously, 10 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: we saw Joe Biden in the midterm elections take the 11 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: stage in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and essentially label every Trump voter 12 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: as an enemy of the state. We've seen what they've 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: tried to do to Donald Trump. They've tried to jail 14 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: him on four different occasions. They've tried to bankrupt him. 15 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: They tried removing him from the ballot, which shows what 16 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:51,639 Speaker 1: little respect they have for you as a voter. They 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: think the power should be in their hands, not yours. 18 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: They've tried to bankrupt him as well. He's faced two 19 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: assassination attempts. Who knows how many more that we're unaware of. 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: So that's what they think of their political enemies. Donald 21 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: Trump has said time and time again that he is 22 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: only standing in the way of you and what they 23 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: want to do to you. So if they think so 24 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: little of us, if they call Donald Trump Nazis, if 25 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: they call Trump supporters Nazis like they have, what do 26 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: they want to do to us as Trump supporters in 27 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: the country. And then even beyond that, you look at 28 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: what they've done on inflation, with sky high inflation under 29 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: Joe Biden and Kamal Harris. You look at what they've 30 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: done with open borders as well, and then suing the 31 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: state of Virginia who tried to remove non citizen voters 32 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,960 Speaker 1: from their voter rules. We've seen chaos around the world 33 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: with wars in the Middle East as well as in Europe. 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: So what do you think the next four years will 35 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: look like? And if all of that doesn't get you 36 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: to want to get up and get motivated to go 37 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: and vote, I don't know what does. This is a 38 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: really important election. We can't take anything to chance. So 39 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: I just I encourage you if you can get out 40 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: and vote early. I've already done so in the state 41 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: of Florida. I went out and voted for Donald Trump. Also, 42 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: if you're in the state of Florida, I voted against 43 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: Amendment three, against Amendment four, but really important election. So 44 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: today's episode beyond all that with what I just wanted 45 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: to share with you, and I encourage you to get 46 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 1: and vote. You know, we've got such a side by 47 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: side comparison. I just I don't know how anyone could 48 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: think that the country would be better off under Kamala Harris. 49 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 1: You know, what are the numbers showing should we be 50 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: reading into early vote totals or not where to independent 51 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: voters stand. We'll also take a look at the fact 52 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: that you know, Kamala Harris is outspent Donald Trump four 53 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: to one on political ads. How does that impact the race? 54 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: So we're going to get into the data. We're to 55 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: get into the numbers. We're going to try to read 56 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: the tea leaves a little bit with someone who does 57 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: it for a living and who's quite good at it, 58 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: Tom Bevan. He is the co founder and president of 59 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 1: Real Clear Politics. He always brings smart analysis to the show. 60 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: Real Clear Politics does really important work. So stay tuned 61 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: for Tom Bevan. Tom Bevan, it's great to have you 62 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: back in the show. Hoping we can try to make 63 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: sense of what we're seeing as we head into election day. 64 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: So appreciate you coming on absolutely Well. I wanted to 65 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: start off by did you know that Kamala Harris comes 66 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 1: from a middle class family? 67 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,279 Speaker 2: You know, I've heard something about that. I don't know, Yeah, 68 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 2: I heard. 69 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: I heard that the other day, so I thought that 70 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:27,079 Speaker 1: was interesting. Yes, But on a more serious note, I guess, 71 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: big picture, where does this thing stand today? 72 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 2: Well, I mean it's close, obviously, and I think Trump 73 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 2: has the edge at the moment. You know, based on 74 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: the numbers that we're seeing. I mean, he's he's ahead 75 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: in the national polls by less than half a percentage point, 76 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: which you know, if the polls are accurate, means that 77 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: he's he's A he's in a much better position than 78 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: he was four years ago or eight years ago. And 79 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 2: B he's got an electoral college advantage, so you have 80 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 2: to believe that that. And he's ahead about nine tenths 81 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 2: of a percent in the swing states right now, those 82 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 2: big seven battleground states. But they're close, I mean they're 83 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 2: absolutely close. And so you know, is it possible he 84 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 2: could win the popular vote and lose the electoral College, 85 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 2: it seems really unlikely, but you know, I don't rule 86 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 2: anything out at this point. I think the I think 87 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 2: the sort of the range of outcomes for this election 88 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: is Harris wins narrowly, Trump wins narrowly, or Trump wins 89 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:33,799 Speaker 2: sort of in a landslide, meaning he overperforms his polls 90 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 2: as he did in twenty sixteen twenty twenty, and he 91 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 2: wins all of these seven battleground states, and maybe even 92 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: if the bottom sort of falls out for Harris over 93 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 2: the next you know, few days that he could pick 94 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: off a state like Minnesota or Virginia or New Hampshire 95 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 2: or something, and he'd be in a you know, three 96 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: three sixteen three twenty electoral college range win, which in 97 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 2: this day and age is a pretty go thumping, you know. 98 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: And I found it interesting that we saw as sort 99 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: of in the closing arguments, you know, Bob Casey out 100 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin and Wisconsin sort of tying 101 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 1: their wagons to Trump in closing advertising. Does that tell 102 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: you anything about his standing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or 103 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: how do you read that? 104 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, look, there's there's they're the polls, which 105 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 2: again and I think people are right to sort of 106 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,119 Speaker 2: be skeptical of the polls, given what happened in twenty 107 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 2: sixteen and twenty twenty, wonder whether they're accurate or how 108 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 2: accurate they might be. And then there's and then there's 109 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 2: this sort of anecdotal stuff, right, It's like and the 110 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 2: and the atmospherics, and part of that is, oh, crowd 111 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 2: sizes and yard signs and and all of that. But 112 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 2: then there's also the Okay, where are they, where are 113 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: they advertising, where the campaign's advertising? You know, what what 114 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 2: are the down ticket races doing? And then also you 115 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 2: know these these stories like what's going on in the press. 116 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 2: Do you see the stories about you know, one side's 117 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 2: nervous or one side's feeling confident, or you're getting leaks 118 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 2: to the press about you know, the campaign screwing this 119 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 2: up or they didn't do this, or you know, is 120 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 2: there some sort of preemptive backbiting or blame laying that's 121 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 2: happening out there and all of those see, all of 122 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 2: those things seem to be in my estimation, reading sort 123 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 2: of the tea leaves that the Trump campaign has the 124 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 2: upper hand. The Hairs campaign is the ones feeling sort 125 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 2: of I don't want to say desperate, but there's a 126 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 2: lot of anxiety there. You're seeing some of these stories 127 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:41,039 Speaker 2: about you know, questions about the campaign and what they're 128 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 2: doing and do they have the right message? Is it 129 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 2: moving the needle? Is it not? And at least that's 130 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 2: what it was up until the Madison Square Garden rally, 131 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 2: when you know, Tony Hinchcliffe made his joke and then 132 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 2: the press basically spent forty eight hours, you know, focusing 133 00:06:56,440 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 2: exclusively on that, and now that's you know, sort of 134 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 2: changed the shoes on the other foot, and now the 135 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 2: Biden campaign is running around trying to clean up over 136 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: garbage Gate. 137 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: You know, it seems to me that you know, basically 138 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: her argument is that, you know, Donald Trump's awful. I'm 139 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: a woman, and I'm a minority, and I come from 140 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: a middle class family. And outside of that, you know, 141 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: she hasn't really given people much of a reason to 142 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: vote for her. But I but I think that, you know, 143 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's evil thing doesn't work as well when you know, 144 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: we've seen polling recently, you know with CNN where majority 145 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: of Americans actually view Donald Trump's presidency as a positive, 146 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: and you know, he's not as toxic as he perhaps 147 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty to voter. So it's like, I 148 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: wonder how much that lands intoday's environment. And you even 149 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: see kind of like more people proud to support Trump publicly, 150 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: you know, so it just doesn't kind of have that 151 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: same same toxicity that it may have had in twenty twenty. 152 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it is kind of ironic that given everything 153 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 2: that has been thrown at Trump and you know, January 154 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: sixth and then all the lawfair stuff and the assassination 155 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 2: attempts and everything, he has emerged even stronger and in 156 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 2: some ways more like his favorable ratings are higher than 157 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 2: they've been you know ever. And that's really interesting, and 158 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 2: it's I think there are two pieces to it. One 159 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 2: is what you mentioned, folks are kind of desensitized to, 160 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 2: you know, claims that he's just this this. It's hard 161 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 2: for I think the public to take seriously the idea 162 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 2: that Trump is going to round up journalists and his 163 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 2: political enemies and have them killed or put in camps 164 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 2: or whatever, or that women are going to be hauled off, 165 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 2: like Mika Brazinski seems to think that, you know, women 166 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: are literally going to be dying if Donald Trump gets elected, 167 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 2: because we've already lived through four years of Donald Trump 168 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 2: and none of that bad stuff happened, even if folks, 169 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 2: you know, didn't like Trump or some of the policies 170 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 2: or some of his baggage. The fact that we've lived 171 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 2: through that and then now we've lived through four years 172 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 2: of Biden Harris, and people are looking back on Trump's time, 173 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 2: particularly as it relates to the economy and saying, you 174 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 2: know what, it wasn't that bad. Actually it was kind 175 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 2: of good, and it was better than it is now. 176 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 2: And so I think there they may still have reservations 177 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: about him on a bunch of different levels, but they're 178 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,719 Speaker 2: certainly much more open to the idea of putting him 179 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 2: back in office because of what they experienced when he 180 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 2: on the economy in particular. 181 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 1: Do you read it into anything with the Washington Post 182 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,959 Speaker 1: and the La Times in USA today refusing to endorse 183 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, Does that mean anything in terms of maybe 184 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: what they're saying. 185 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 2: That's a good question. I don't know. I don't. I mean, 186 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 2: it certainly seems that there was some you know, the 187 00:09:55,920 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 2: Post Bezos clearly made the call didn't want that to happen. 188 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: It didn't happen. Same thing the owner of the La Times, 189 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 2: although there was you know, some drama with his daughter 190 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:11,199 Speaker 2: apparently and their her viewpoint. I think it's a good 191 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: thing actually that that because I think Bezo's Bezos actually wrote. 192 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 2: I thought I thought his column that he wrote in 193 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 2: the in the Post was was pretty good in terms 194 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 2: of stating, look, these these endorsements, they don't sway anybody. 195 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 2: Number one. Number two, they they they give the perception 196 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 2: of bias, whether we are or we're not. It gives 197 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: that perception, and that's not a good thing for our newspaper. 198 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: It's not a good thing for the business of if 199 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 2: you're in the business of trying to be sort of 200 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: even handed and objective to have, you know, be issuing 201 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 2: these endorsements. And so I thought he made a pretty 202 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 2: strong case for why they didn't and he said, of course, 203 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 2: you know, we should have done this earlier. And the 204 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 2: fact that they did it as close to the election 205 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 2: as they did, you know, leaves leave some people to 206 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 2: believe that they're where other motives involved in I mean, 207 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 2: you saw it today. They you know, the Washington Post 208 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 2: did it basically like a an investigative piece on their 209 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 2: owner in Blue Origin and his contacts with you know, 210 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 2: the government and all that stuff, which was which was 211 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 2: pretty interesting. He got a colonoscopy from his staff on 212 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 2: some of those issues. But I don't know. I think 213 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 2: it's a good thing in general for the news business 214 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 2: to get out of the endorsement business. But I'm not 215 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 2: sure beyond that, whether I'm you know, it means that 216 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 2: all these folks think that Trump's going to win, and 217 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 2: that's the reason they decided to do what they did, 218 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:34,079 Speaker 2: right right. 219 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: Well, I think if you Trump ends up winning, we'll 220 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 1: kind of look back on his media strategy, you know, 221 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: and and sort of using these podcasters, whether it's you know, 222 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: Joe Rogan with his fourteen point five million you know 223 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: followers on Spotify or I think it's like seventeen point 224 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: five million on YouTube or whatever, and the you know, 225 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: doing the X interview with Ela, and of being able 226 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: to sort of bypass this eighty five percent negative media 227 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: coverage that he's gotten. 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But I think he's going to win. 246 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 1: But you know, she's outspent him four to one in 247 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,559 Speaker 1: political ads, and he's also received eighty five percent negative 248 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: media coverage to her seventy eight percent positive media coverage, 249 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: which means the voters are almost universally saying positive things 250 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: about her and negative things about him, Yet, as you 251 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: pointed out, his approval ratings have never been this strong. 252 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: He's up in the real clear politics, you know, battleground 253 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 1: states and in the popular votes, and a majority of 254 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: Americans look back on his administration with nostalgia. 255 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 2: So that's pretty remarkable. It is it is, you know, 256 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: he has We've never looked, We've never seen anything like 257 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, and we may never see anything like him 258 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:46,520 Speaker 2: again in our lifetimes for sure, because he has managed 259 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 2: to He's such a unique figure, and he has managed 260 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:55,679 Speaker 2: to be almost impervious to the laws traditional laws of 261 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 2: politics in terms of what you can say and do 262 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 2: and get away with, in terms of being impervious to 263 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 2: the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been spent 264 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 2: against him by his own party, Republicans and primaries, and 265 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 2: not to mention the Democrats. And then get into office 266 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 2: and he's fighting with the media and the Democrats and 267 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 2: the Republicans, the never Trumpers and just manages to sort 268 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 2: of plow through it all. And he seems to be 269 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 2: doing that again in this election. And as I said, 270 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: he's in a way better position than he was four 271 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 2: years ago or eight years ago by any metric. You 272 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: want to look at whether there's favorability or any of 273 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 2: these battleground state polls or national polls. He's just he 274 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 2: has managed to he's managed to change the party fundamentally 275 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: into a working class, more diverse party. I mean, he's probably, 276 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 2: if you believe the polls and the polls are accurate, 277 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 2: he's going to get the most non white votes for 278 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: Republican candidates since nineteen sixty. He'll get the most black votes, 279 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 2: He'll get the most Hispanic votes. We'll see whether that 280 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 2: comes to pass or not. But there's no question that 281 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 2: he's going to get more than he did in twenty twenty. 282 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 2: And he's probably he may end upsetting records. And so 283 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: that's just it's been remarkable to watch the parties basically 284 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 2: trade places over that. Since he came on the scene 285 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 2: in twenty fifteen, Democrats have given up on the working 286 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 2: class and are now a class now the party of 287 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 2: sort of the well educated, upper class white vote and 288 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 2: folks on Wall Street and Trump, you know, Republicans are 289 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 2: now the sort of working class factory floor, you know, 290 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 2: the people who wear hard hats and work with their hands. 291 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 2: I mean, it's been pretty pretty amazing to watch and 292 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 2: it's happened pretty darn rapidly over the last few years. 293 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: It's interesting a lot of discussions about early voting. You know, 294 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: what does it mean? Does it mean anything? Can we 295 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: read into anything? And you look at the state of 296 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 1: Nevada and John Ralston has been reporting about how Republicans 297 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 1: have turned out and bigger numbers than of registered Democrats 298 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: by pretty significant margins. I think as of recently forty 299 00:15:55,840 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: thousand even places in reliable you know, Clark County. The 300 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: dem firewall has evaporated and so on and so forth. 301 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess, do you make anything out of 302 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: some of these early voting numbers. I think Nevada is 303 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: more significant than some of the other states. 304 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess sort of what's you read on all that? 305 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 2: So Sean Trendy, our senior elections analyst who's super super 306 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 2: smart on all this stuff, just wrote something for us 307 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 2: and which we ran on the site the other day 308 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 2: and basically, and we have this conversation often and you 309 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 2: can this happens every cycle, and it happened a lot 310 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty and it's happening again. Is that you've 311 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 2: got these folks who analyze that early vote data, and 312 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 2: everybody wants to read the tea leaves and try and 313 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 2: figure out and what it means for the final outcome. 314 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 2: And you can pretty quickly go down a rabbit hole 315 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 2: on any of these states and try and decipher the data, 316 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 2: and it just doesn't. It usually leads to bad outcomes. Right, 317 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 2: you're not going to get the kind of information that 318 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 2: you think you're going to get. With the one exception, 319 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 2: and Sean Benson mentions this in his piece is Nevada 320 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 2: because of the way they conduct their elections. Because John 321 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 2: Ralston is as good as he is at doing what 322 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 2: he does, they you know, Nevada is the one place 323 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 2: where you can actually look at the data and say, okay, 324 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 2: you know, this gives us an indication of where this 325 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 2: thing is headed. But in the other states, it's really 326 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 2: really hard, and it's usually sort of a fruitless exercise, 327 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,719 Speaker 2: and so Sean recommends everybody kind of just chill, and 328 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 2: I agree with them on that. I find that, you know, 329 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 2: people are so desperate to try and figure out ahead 330 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 2: of time who's going to win this thing and find 331 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 2: some sort of secret, secret metric or something that's going 332 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 2: to give them the inside track. But at the end 333 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 2: of the day, you just got to wait and let 334 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 2: the votes get counted and see, you know, who turns 335 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 2: out and how it goes. It's good, I think, as 336 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 2: I said earlier, I mean, well, I think it's clear 337 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,719 Speaker 2: though that we're going to have huge turnout. I mean, 338 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 2: people are turning out in big numbers. Be shocked if 339 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:06,439 Speaker 2: we don't beat twenty twenty's numbers. But yeah, we're just 340 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 2: gonna have to wait and see kind of what the 341 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 2: final tallies are. 342 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: Well, because there's in an argument to me, it made 343 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:16,359 Speaker 1: that you know, Republicans are early voting more than you 344 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,679 Speaker 1: know we saw in twenty twenty, and so does that 345 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: mean that less people are going to turn out an 346 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: election day or does that just mean that more people 347 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 1: are voting republic you know. So it's like we're all 348 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 1: kind of trying to figure out. 349 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 2: Well, that's the thing. I mean, you can't tell how 350 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,400 Speaker 2: many of these voters are. If you've got one hundred 351 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 2: thousand Republicans and you know, normally ninety thousand of them 352 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,360 Speaker 2: vote in election day and ten thousand of them vote early, 353 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 2: and suddenly, because the party has pushed them, suddenly you've 354 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 2: got fifty thousand voting early. Does that mean you're still 355 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 2: going to get ninety thousand on election day? Or does 356 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 2: that just mean you're going to get fifty thousand on 357 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 2: election day and you still end up with one hundred thousand. 358 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: You can't tell how many of these people are new 359 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 2: voters that are additive. You can't tell that if it 360 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 2: means that turnout's going to be up or down. It 361 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 2: just doesn't give you that kind of clarity. Even though 362 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 2: people desperately try and read into these numbers, you know, 363 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 2: for those kinds of those kinds of those kinds of insights, 364 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 2: they're just not there. 365 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: Although I would say, you know, Republicans have done a 366 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: good job of eating into democrats advantages and the registration 367 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: numbers like in Pennsylvania, and you know, or if you 368 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: look at a state like Nevada the last test time 369 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 1: I went read for I think of two thousand and 370 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 1: four or so, if Republicans are up there, that is 371 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: a good sign potentially for the rest of these battleground states. 372 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: So but you know, again it's you know, you don't 373 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: want to you don't want to get over your skis 374 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 1: and then end up with egg on your face. 375 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 2: On No, totally not totally not. Now. The one thing 376 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 2: that you know, democrats argue and I do agree with this. Now, 377 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 2: the thing about early voting. One of the reasons that 378 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 2: early voting is they like it and they think it's 379 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 2: good is because it allows you because once people have voted, 380 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 2: they can look and see who's voted, so they it 381 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 2: offers efficiency. They don't have to send them mailers, they 382 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 2: don't have to go knock on doors of people who 383 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 2: have already voted. It allows them to focus on the 384 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 2: people who haven't voted and work to get those lower pensity. 385 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 2: You know, all of these campaigns have identified voters and 386 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 2: they'll say, well, these guys are you know, the people 387 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 2: who live at this house are an eight, nine or 388 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,159 Speaker 2: a ten, you know voter for us, right, they're a 389 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 2: hard D okay. And then you know there's people that 390 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 2: are you know, five, six, seven, so they're kind of 391 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 2: like middle ds. And then there's like the two three fourths, 392 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,360 Speaker 2: they're like the soft d's right, and so you obviously 393 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 2: you know your eight nines and tens are probably going 394 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 2: to vote early, and they're going to vote. You know, 395 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about them. But then you 396 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 2: can work, you know, you're working on getting your four 397 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 2: fives and sixes to the polls, and once you know, 398 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 2: once you can see, okay, I've gotten fifty percent of 399 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 2: my four fives and sixes, I can you know, I 400 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:43,640 Speaker 2: don't have to send them. I don't have to waste 401 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 2: any more time or effort or resources trying to find 402 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 2: those people and urge them to get to the polls. 403 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 2: I can focus on these other ones, and you can 404 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 2: work your way down to the lower you know, the twos, threes, 405 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 2: and fours. These are people who who may not even 406 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 2: turn out at all. But if you can get to them, 407 00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 2: and you can get them, you know, you can harve 408 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 2: that ballot. That gives you an advantage. And so I 409 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 2: think from that perspective, Republicans are playing that game now, 410 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 2: and if to the extent that they do it well, 411 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: they could also see some efficiencies in reaching those lower 412 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 2: propensity voters, which traditionally. Trump has done well with those people. 413 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 2: He's brought disaffected voters and people who have been out 414 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 2: of the process for a while into his camp. And 415 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 2: the more of those that the Republicans can get, I 416 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 2: think the better his odds are going to be. 417 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: Well and would also be interesting depending on what happens 418 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: this election and where different demographics go, do those demographics 419 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: hold in the next election? Right with whoever the Republicans. 420 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: You know, it's like, how much of this realignment in 421 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 1: American politics is just because of Trump versus you know, 422 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 1: a more permanent alignment, realignment you know, moving forward electorally. 423 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 2: Well I have a theory on that, or I thought 424 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:55,960 Speaker 2: I'd love to hear it. Well, it's just look, I 425 00:21:56,040 --> 00:22:00,120 Speaker 2: think the people who think, you know, the sort of 426 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 2: never Trump crowd who wants Trump to lose because they think, 427 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 2: you know, once he's off the scene, that they can 428 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 2: the party can like reset or the fever or break 429 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 2: or whatever, and they can get it back to being 430 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,640 Speaker 2: more the party of their you know, country club Republicans 431 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 2: or whatever. I think that's just a fantasy. I just 432 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 2: don't think that that's I think that the die has 433 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 2: been cast in the sense of the party now. That 434 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 2: isn't say you couldn't have a figure whoever ends up 435 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 2: leading the Republican Party after Donald Trump, And it could 436 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,440 Speaker 2: be you know, it could be in eight days they're 437 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 2: going to be looking for the new person if Trump loses, 438 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 2: or it could be four years from now or whatever, 439 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 2: but they're going to His policies are popular and sort 440 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: of firmly embedded now in the Republican Party, and I 441 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,640 Speaker 2: don't think there's any going back, just like I think 442 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:55,360 Speaker 2: the Democrats again, they've they've kind of cast their die 443 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 2: with when you look at their options, the people that 444 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 2: the people that ran in twenty twenty and that I'm 445 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 2: sorry in twenty well, twenty sixteen, I'm sorry in the 446 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 2: twenty nineteen primary, ran in twenty twenty. You know, the 447 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 2: choice of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete bootageedge right. There 448 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 2: was no option there other than Biden, and even he 449 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 2: turned out to be not much of a centrist. Right 450 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 2: that if Kamala Harris loses and they're looking forward to 451 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,640 Speaker 2: the next standard bearer of their party, it doesn't seem 452 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:31,359 Speaker 2: to me that they're going to have someone who's going 453 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,359 Speaker 2: to come in and you know, you look at the 454 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 2: bright lights in the party, it's like, you know, Gavin 455 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 2: Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer. I mean, these are not people 456 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 2: that are going to suddenly reconnect Democrats with the working 457 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,719 Speaker 2: class in this country and be able to sort of 458 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 2: They're still going to be participating in ideology or identity 459 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 2: politics and that sort of thing. And likewise, on the 460 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 2: Republican side, I mean, I don't you know, you look 461 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,239 Speaker 2: at Jade Vance and you look at some of these 462 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 2: other folks. Are they going to go back and really 463 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 2: advocate for, you know, just unfettered free trade or democracy abroad, 464 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 2: like the George W. Bush democracy agenda. No, it's not 465 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 2: going to happen. And so I do think these parties 466 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 2: have settled into this. This shift is long term. Nothing's 467 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 2: permanent in American politics, and obviously there will be in 468 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 2: the future, maybe not in the near term future, but 469 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 2: maybe in the midterm or longer term future. You know, 470 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,199 Speaker 2: people who come up through the ranks who are able to, 471 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,159 Speaker 2: you know, recraft that message in a way that reaches 472 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 2: you know, the traditional Republicans and Independents and like. But 473 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 2: I think some of the stuff that we're seeing now, 474 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: like the shift among minority voters in particular, I think 475 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 2: that's going to continue. I don't think that's going to 476 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 2: just snap back once Donald Trump leaves the scene. 477 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: We've got more with Tom. But first, in today's world 478 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: are rising crime threatens families. Violent crimes are now taking 479 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,360 Speaker 1: place every twenty six seconds. 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Sabers pepper sprays are ideal 489 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 1: for on the go safety, and Sabers door bars block 490 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,679 Speaker 1: up to six hundred and fifty pounds of force to 491 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: keep intruders out. Visit saberradio dot com or call eight 492 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 1: four four eight two four safe to protect your family today. 493 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:43,439 Speaker 1: That's Sabre Radio dot com. You know, I feel like 494 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 1: part of her challenge is, you know, Harriet and then 495 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 1: with CNN pointed out that Trump wins. The signs were 496 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: there all along talking about how no incumbent party is 497 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 1: won another term with so few voters, saying the country 498 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,159 Speaker 1: is on the wrong track. I believe it's twenty eight 499 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,200 Speaker 1: percent today, and when the president's net approval rating is 500 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,760 Speaker 1: as low as Joe Biden's it, I think she bears 501 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: the weight of incumbency because she's not done enough to 502 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 1: separate herself from Joe Biden. And then even when asked, 503 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 1: she has refused to separate herself from Joe Biden. Do 504 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 1: you think that's fair or do you think she will 505 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 1: be able to distance herself enough to not bear the 506 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 1: weight of a negative incumbency. 507 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,880 Speaker 2: Think I think she's done well. Look to be fair 508 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:29,200 Speaker 2: to Kamala Harris. Okay, it would be difficult for even 509 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,439 Speaker 2: most skilled politician. I think Jada Vance could do it. 510 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 2: He's pretty talented. 511 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 1: But anyways, I digress. 512 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 2: To be dropped into the situation, situation that she's been 513 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 2: dropped into, and to try and simultaneously to take credit 514 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 2: for the things that the progressives love about the Biden 515 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,200 Speaker 2: administration and also distance herself from the failures and try 516 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,199 Speaker 2: and reach the middle. That would be really hard for 517 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 2: even a very skilled politician. And Kamala Harris is not 518 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 2: a skilled politician, and so and she wasn't totally prepared 519 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 2: to do it. You could see that she didn't, you know, 520 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 2: she just didn't spend a lot of time thinking about 521 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 2: how to do it and how to come up with 522 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 2: answers that would be satisfactory to do it. So, yeah, 523 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 2: that's been a challenge from the beginning, and it's one 524 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 2: that she has really struggled to, you know, achieve in 525 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,679 Speaker 2: a in a legitimate way, just by saying, look, of 526 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,160 Speaker 2: course I'm not Joe Biden because I you know, I'm 527 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: a woman and I'm a you know, minority. I mean, 528 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 2: that's not really good enough, right. And the second thing 529 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,120 Speaker 2: that she failed to do, and if you go back 530 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 2: and you just think how different this campaign would have 531 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,439 Speaker 2: been if if I don't know how many weeks ago 532 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,679 Speaker 2: it was now, like you know, July twenty second, so 533 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 2: three months ago when she first when she first became 534 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 2: the de facto nominee, and again she avoided the press 535 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 2: for like a month, so maybe two months ago. She 536 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,959 Speaker 2: sits down and obviously, you know, she gets the first question, like, 537 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 2: would you do anything differently if she had said at 538 00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 2: that time, you know, yeah, I don't. I don't. I 539 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 2: feel like we, you know, we had the best of 540 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 2: intentions on immigration. We felt Trump's policies were cruel. We 541 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 2: wanted to reverse those and really put in place a 542 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 2: immigration system that we thought was humane and fair and 543 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,280 Speaker 2: you know, but also secured the border, and it just 544 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 2: didn't work out that way. I think we got that wrong. 545 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 2: We could have done that different, we could have done 546 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 2: it better. That would have been the public would have 547 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 2: accepted that, I think as a legitimate answer, as an 548 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 2: actual honest answer about a policy. Instead, she just decided 549 00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 2: to go with no, we did everything right. There's nothing 550 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 2: I would change. And that also has made it very 551 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 2: difficult for her to separate herself from the failures of 552 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 2: this administration and the things that the public dislikes the 553 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 2: most about about what the Biden administration has done on 554 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 2: immigration and inflation and the like. And so she's, you know, 555 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 2: she's in a tough spot. But she did not help 556 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 2: herself in any way. And I think that's why with 557 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 2: a week to go in the campaign, eight days to 558 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 2: go in the campaign, she's still giving the same answer. 559 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,640 Speaker 2: She just got asked it the other day, what would 560 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 2: you do to bring prices down? And she said, I'm 561 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 2: from a middle class family. It's it became sort of 562 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 2: a caricature, and she's still doing it. Makes no sense 563 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 2: to me. And so yeah, it's it's been a struggle 564 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 2: for her, and I'll be as I said, I think 565 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,719 Speaker 2: that's one of the reasons she's she's not doing as 566 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 2: well as as she could be doing in this campaign. 567 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 1: Well, especially with independent voters as well. You know absolutely 568 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:40,720 Speaker 1: who Joe Biden won by nearly thirteen points, So it'll 569 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean, it seems like she's kind of struggling with 570 00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 1: almost every key part of Biden's coalition outside of with 571 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 1: women voters. But even her numbers with women voters, I 572 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 1: don't think. I can't remember. I'm trying to remember exactly 573 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: what Trump lost women voters to Hillary Clinton by, but 574 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 1: I think it's like roughly the same and he still 575 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 1: was able to win in twenty sixteen, So I don't know. 576 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 1: I think maybe more is being made about that then 577 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 1: it should or do you think they have it right 578 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: in terms of, uh, you know, sort of the gender gap, 579 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 1: because I think he lost pretty substantially in twenty sixteen 580 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 1: with female voters. 581 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 2: I'll try to find them he did. Yeah, yeah, no, 582 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 2: it was like twenty something points to gender gap and 583 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 2: it was a little less than twenty twenty. And it's 584 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 2: it's back about where it was in twenty sixteen, maybe 585 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,920 Speaker 2: a little bit even a little bit less. And that's 586 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 2: in average of polls. I mean, if some of these 587 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 2: poles have it, you know, thirty points or more. 588 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, then it's to eat statespecific, you know. 589 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 2: But but yeah, large, you know, it's large. Yeah, so 590 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 2: it's roughly as big as it was in twenty sixteen. 591 00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 2: And I but I do think, you know, they have 592 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 2: focused so heavily on women, and their efforts to reach 593 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 2: out to men have been so inept. I mean, they've 594 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 2: just been really really these white dudes for Harris and 595 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 2: the ads and all this stuff has been really again 596 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 2: almost like a pair, and so it's really been for them. 597 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 2: They haven't it's been sort of almost I don't want 598 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 2: to say almost zero sum. Right. So the more they 599 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,480 Speaker 2: focus on women, the more they talk about abortion, the 600 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 2: more the more they sort of alienate and lose men. 601 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 2: And then they go and try and you know, win 602 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 2: over men, and it doesn't work. So they have focused 603 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 2: on women because that's the group she's strongest with. Abortion 604 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 2: is on the ballot in Arizona, Michigan, Florida, a couple 605 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 2: other places, and it has been a winning issue for them. 606 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,880 Speaker 2: In the past, you know, post Dobbs in some of 607 00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 2: these races, and so their theory of the cases they 608 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:42,120 Speaker 2: can really use that to motivate women and particularly younger women. 609 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 2: I think there's some evidence that that's the case, but 610 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 2: by focusing so exclusively on that issue, they just haven't 611 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 2: been able to really reach men. And her efforts have 612 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 2: been you know, when she just came out, she came 613 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,320 Speaker 2: out a couple of weeks ago with this agenda for 614 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 2: black men, right, and it was like like and they 615 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,200 Speaker 2: made a big deal of vote for about two days 616 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 2: and then it went away and you never heard about 617 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 2: it again. And it was you know, it was legalized marijuana, 618 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 2: it was extra like training, you know, education, there was 619 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,239 Speaker 2: a healthcare component to it or whatever, and it was 620 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,719 Speaker 2: just like, you know, it was a two day thing 621 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 2: and then it was gone. So they just really struggled 622 00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 2: with trying to to get men into the into the fold, 623 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 2: and it hasn't worked at all. 624 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 1: Well, I also think and I'll let you go, so 625 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,280 Speaker 1: I've taken a lot of time also. I mean it's 626 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:35,760 Speaker 1: hard to really quantify it, but I feel like the 627 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 1: surviving the first assassination and his response to it with 628 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 1: like standing up and saying fight, fight, fight. I think 629 00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: that was kind of like game over with mail voters 630 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: after that point. You know, we've even seen critics like 631 00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 1: The Rock call him afterwards or even Mark Zuckerberg I'll 632 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: publicly say that it was badass, you know. So I 633 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 1: think that sort of like solidified the mail vote with 634 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: just sort of that auto of responding with such strength. 635 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 1: It's just like a very masculine alpha, you know response. 636 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,960 Speaker 2: Doesn't that feel like it was like two years ago? Well? 637 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 1: Also also the media and social media trying to memory 638 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 1: hole it is pretty remarkable as well. Or you know, 639 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: I think there was that axious article about how photographers 640 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,600 Speaker 1: were worried it would help them just like just wild. 641 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's this has been a I think that's right. 642 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 2: I mean, I think that moment is well, it's one 643 00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 2: of the iconic moments of the campaign for sure, and 644 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 2: it did. I think even to your point, even people 645 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 2: who don't like him had to had to sort of 646 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 2: admit that that was a that was a you know, 647 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 2: pretty pretty ridiculous moment, spontaneous reaction to getting shot and 648 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 2: almost dying. But you're right, I mean it went away 649 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,920 Speaker 2: pretty quickly, as did the second one. I mean someone 650 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 2: had someone on Twitter had joked the other day about 651 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,720 Speaker 2: how like we've the media spent more time on this 652 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 2: Tony Hinchcliff joke, this comedian's joke at Madison Square Garden, 653 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:07,880 Speaker 2: and they spent on both assassination attempts combined, which might 654 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 2: be a bit of an exaggeration, but not by a lot. 655 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 1: Actually, well, yeah, it is pretty wild that somehow comedians, 656 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,840 Speaker 1: you know, joke receive them, which also kind of to 657 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,759 Speaker 1: me shows that I think the left is losing. I 658 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 1: just I just think if you kind of like go 659 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,279 Speaker 1: through all the like checking all the boxes, there's more 660 00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 1: boxes checked for you know, Trump in these final days 661 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:37,359 Speaker 1: heading in then for her. But you know, we'll see, right, 662 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,280 Speaker 1: because I thought twenty is going to be a bigger 663 00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,759 Speaker 1: red wave based off of you know, historical data, and 664 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:43,560 Speaker 1: it wasn't. 665 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,439 Speaker 2: I always remind people of that, I mean, by every 666 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,919 Speaker 2: metric that we would we use to judge historically used 667 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:55,040 Speaker 2: to judge you know, midterm elections, whether it was I mean, 668 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 2: inflation was eight and a half percent, gas was four 669 00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,839 Speaker 2: and a half dollars a gallon. Biden's job approval rating 670 00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:02,200 Speaker 2: was in the low forties, even in the thirties and 671 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 2: some of these swing states, I mean, you know, right track, 672 00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,200 Speaker 2: wrong track, I mean, all that stuff. By every metric, 673 00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 2: Democrats should have paid dearly in twenty twenty two, and 674 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,480 Speaker 2: they didn't. You know, there's a variety of reasons for that. 675 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,799 Speaker 2: But certainly, even though all of the lights are sort 676 00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 2: of flashing red for the Democrats in this election as well, 677 00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 2: that does not mean that, you know, she's automatically going 678 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 2: to lose. And like I said, I think a lot 679 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,640 Speaker 2: of these states are if you believe the polls, they 680 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,840 Speaker 2: are very very close. And I think there's good reason 681 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 2: to believe that a lot of these states will end 682 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,759 Speaker 2: up being close. And you know, but again we'll have 683 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:35,359 Speaker 2: to wait and see. 684 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 1: We'll have to wait and see tom before we go. 685 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,480 Speaker 1: And what are you looking for? Sort of in these 686 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:45,720 Speaker 1: final days, are just kind of hoping it ends right. 687 00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,920 Speaker 2: Yes, the sweet media of death or whatever you call it, 688 00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:54,799 Speaker 2: right too much? Yes for us. Look, I'm just sort 689 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,960 Speaker 2: of in survival mode for the next six days and 690 00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 2: keep up with the polls and all this stuff. I mean, 691 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 2: I think election night for me, first of all, Election 692 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,240 Speaker 2: day is like my least favorite day because everybody wants 693 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 2: you just kind of sit around and hurry up and 694 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,400 Speaker 2: wait all day long, and everybody wants to You're reading 695 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,799 Speaker 2: reports about, oh, turnout, it's big over here, there's an 696 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 2: election problem here or whatever, and it's just it's just 697 00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 2: miserable for like ten hours and then the results start 698 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,359 Speaker 2: coming in and then it gets exciting for a few 699 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 2: hours and maybe a few days after that. Look, I 700 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 2: think Virginia's the I mean, Indiana and Kentucky are the 701 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 2: first closes. But I'm not sure how much we'll be 702 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,760 Speaker 2: able to glean from that. Right does if Trump performs 703 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 2: two points better or worse in Indiana, as I can 704 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,719 Speaker 2: really tell you much, I don't think so. Virginia is 705 00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 2: one of the early states to close, and that is 706 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,680 Speaker 2: a state that Biden was losing to Donald Trump before 707 00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:49,880 Speaker 2: he dropped out of the race. There has been you know, 708 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 2: recent polling Kama Harris's has brought that state back to 709 00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 2: to you know about it's a five point eight percent lead. 710 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 2: But the most recent poll was Harassmus and pull Head 711 00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 2: and Harris up two points in Virginia. That's a state 712 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,839 Speaker 2: Joe Biden won by ten points. And so if some 713 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,960 Speaker 2: of those hey, if that state's too close to call. 714 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 2: When the polls close, or you start seeing numbers in 715 00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 2: some of these house races in Virginia that look good 716 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 2: for Republicans, that could signal a good night for Republicans 717 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 2: or vice versa. I mean, if it's a blowout of 718 00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:23,879 Speaker 2: Virginia for Harris and the Democrats and they then they, 719 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,359 Speaker 2: you know, take some of these house seats as well, 720 00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 2: then I would expect that that's a harbinger of a 721 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 2: very very good night for Kamalin Harris. I would think 722 00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,880 Speaker 2: she would do really, really well and probably win the presidency. 723 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,160 Speaker 2: So keep an eye for me. I'm watching Virginia. That's 724 00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 2: a great point. 725 00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,280 Speaker 1: Tom Bevan, co founder and president of Real Clear Politics, 726 00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,239 Speaker 1: you guys do really important work. Obviously, Avaron's a waste 727 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,040 Speaker 1: sighting your averages as a way to kind of get 728 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 1: a better look at at the overall race. So we 729 00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 1: appreciate your work, Appreciate you coming on the show. You 730 00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 1: always bring really smart insights, so I appreciate your time. 731 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 2: Thanks Lisa. 732 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,719 Speaker 1: It was Tom Bevan, co founder and president of Real 733 00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,839 Speaker 1: Clear Politics. He always brings really smart insight to the show, 734 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,880 Speaker 1: so appreciate him making the time. Appreciate you guys at 735 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,000 Speaker 1: home for listening every Monday and Thursday, but you can 736 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 1: listen throughout the week. I want to thank John Cassio 737 00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 1: and my producer for putting the show together. 738 00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:10,439 Speaker 2: Until next time.