1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,479 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 3: Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. As 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 3: we begin with an I on Israel today, there are 8 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 3: serious questions right now about whether the truth between Israel 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 3: and Hamas will be able to continue. A lot's changed 10 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 3: since this time yesterday. After negotiators chose to extend the pause. 11 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 3: They did get it done late last night, by just 12 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 3: one more day. That's what we're in now, day seven. 13 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 3: The latest extension did not come easily, with confusion over hostages, 14 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 3: lists of names from Hamas, choppy communications between the two sides, 15 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 3: and it's leading some to believe that this in fact 16 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 3: maybe Yet there are also serious questions about what comes next. 17 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 3: That's why Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln is back into 18 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 3: le Aviv now. Talking earlier with Benjamin NETTNYA who about 19 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,199 Speaker 3: the next phase of this war, he says, of course, 20 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 3: we all know that fighting in Gaza will resume at 21 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 3: some point, but of course much has been accomplished over 22 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 3: the course of this truce. Dozens of hostages released, humanitarian 23 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 3: aid brought into Gaza. Anthony Blincoln talked about that earlier 24 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 3: in Tel Aviv. 25 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: Here he is. 26 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 4: From day one, we have been. 27 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 5: Focused relentlessly on trying to secure the release of hostages 28 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 5: from Gaza from vas and we have seen over the 29 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 5: last week the very positive development of hostages coming home, 30 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 5: being reunited with their families, and that should continue today. 31 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 5: It's also enabled to an increasing humanitarian assistance to go 32 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 5: to the innocent civilians in Gaza who needed desperately. 33 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: So this process is producing results. It's important, and we 34 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 4: they could continue. 35 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 3: His third trip since October seventh, and that's where we 36 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: start our conversation with William Cohen, the former Secretary of 37 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 3: Defense is with us of course now Chairman CEO of 38 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 3: the Cohen Group. Mister Secretary, it's good to see you, 39 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: and I appreciate your being with us here at this 40 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 3: critical time. Do you think the truce ends today? 41 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 6: Well, I think they're going to extend it, perhaps one 42 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 6: more day, but this cannot go one indefinitely. The goal 43 00:02:27,639 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 6: of the Israelis obviously is to get as many, if 44 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 6: not all, of the hostages out before they resume military action, 45 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 6: but military action will be forthcoming. You cannot afford to 46 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 6: have Hamas remain intact as far as its infrastructure and 47 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 6: leadership is concerned, and the Israelis are not going to 48 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 6: sit back and say, well, we get our hostages back, 49 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 6: but we'll live with this kind of threat on our 50 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 6: border for the indefinite future. So that's not going to happen. 51 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 6: So I would expect after the Israelis conclude they've got 52 00:02:57,919 --> 00:02:59,839 Speaker 6: as many out as they can for the time being, 53 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 6: you're likely to start the bombing again, but they will 54 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 6: do it on a less massive basis, a much more 55 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 6: discreete targeted basis, because they've seen the world reaction to 56 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 6: when you have wholesale bombing and the killing of innocent civilians. 57 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 6: That makes them not a victim anymore, but a villain 58 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 6: in the eyes of all of those in the region 59 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 6: and much of the world community. And so I think 60 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 6: they'll take that in a consideration, be much more targeted, 61 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 6: much more direct, and minimize the loss of innocent civilians 62 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 6: in the air. 63 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 3: Well, that's certainly the hope of this administration. Of course, 64 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 3: mister secretary, that's one thing that Anthony B. Lincoln is urging, 65 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 3: but we know it's coming. Benjaminettan Yah, who says there's 66 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 3: no situation in which we do not go back to 67 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 3: fighting until the end is that's a direct quote. Hamas 68 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 3: continues to say, October seventh was a dress rehearsal. What 69 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,480 Speaker 3: are the optics going to be when this resumes. 70 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 6: Well, mister Nettnya, who has made it clear that he 71 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 6: has to reduce, if not a limit ate the entire infrastructure, 72 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 6: the military infrastructure of Hamas. He's not going to yield 73 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 6: in that point. But you have the President, President Biden 74 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 6: and Anthony Blenkin sending the signal behind the doors, so 75 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 6: to speak, through emissaries, perhaps even our CIA chief, to say, 76 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 6: be careful here because you have an existential interests at 77 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 6: risk here. But we have interests at risk in the 78 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 6: greater region. We do not want to see this go 79 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 6: further because now our troops will be certainly in the 80 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 6: fire line, will have some of the Islamic groups targeting 81 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 6: our soldiers, whether in Syria, in the Greater Middle East, 82 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 6: in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. So I think we have 83 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 6: an interest in helping the Israelis defend themselves and take 84 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 6: on Hamas. We also have an interest in making sure 85 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 6: that the Israelis don't pursue their mission in a way 86 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 6: that jeopardiz This is our interests in the region, as 87 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 6: well as the greater stability between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, 88 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 6: Bahrain Cutter, all of those countries have an interest in 89 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 6: seeing this not spread. So that is why Secretary Blincoln, 90 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 6: that is why President Biden is urging some restraint on 91 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 6: the part of net Nyahu. 92 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 3: Secretary Cohen Israel believes one hundred and forty five hostages 93 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:29,919 Speaker 3: are still being held in Gaza. Once fighting resumes, is 94 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 3: hope lost. 95 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 6: It's not lost because the hostages were held before the 96 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 6: attacks began by the Israelis. They didn't the mosque, didn't 97 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 6: kill all of them. They knew what they always do 98 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 6: and know the more they hold out, the more concessions 99 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 6: the Israelis and the West is going to insist upon. 100 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 6: Before the hostages we released, so they're playing this very 101 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 6: deadly game. It's really vicious, cynical. We'll let a few 102 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 6: out and then we'll see how much time we can 103 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,919 Speaker 6: buy in order to reposition our forces, we'll let a 104 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 6: few more out and we'll put the pressure on the 105 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 6: Israelis to make more concessions. And that's the game they've 106 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 6: always played and the one they're playing right now because 107 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 6: the world opinion basically does not want to see people 108 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 6: being killed. We're living in the age of information. You've 109 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 6: got immediacy, you've got the intensity of it, you've got 110 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 6: the polarization of a public opinion, and then you have 111 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 6: all of that coming down the Israeli saying, hey, back off, 112 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 6: you've made your point, You've killed enough of the Hummas fighters, 113 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 6: so let's just go back to the way it was. 114 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 6: And the Israelis are saying, no, we're not going back there. 115 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 6: We're going to make sure that you're not going to 116 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 6: ever do this to us again. So they're in it 117 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 6: for the long haul. President Biden is saying, we're with you, 118 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 6: but make sure you are much more discreet, much more 119 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 6: concerned about killing innocent Palestinians. The more you kill, the 120 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 6: more enemies you're making. Less public support you're going to have. 121 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 6: You have us, maybe the Brits, but there isn't anybody 122 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 6: else in the world is going to be with you, 123 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 6: So we have a voice here. Our voice is one 124 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 6: of urging restraint to the extent we can, and I 125 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,119 Speaker 6: think that was taking place right now. 126 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 3: Fascinating. We were quick to move two carrier strike groups 127 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 3: into the region following October seventh. We've talked about that, 128 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 3: of course, the Jerry Ford and the IKE, and they've 129 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 3: decided to move in different paths. But we've surged resources 130 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 3: into the region. Maybe we should take credit for the 131 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 3: fact that that's why we don't have a second or 132 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 3: third front. You mentioned that as well, open at this point, 133 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 3: but going forward, you ran the Pentagon. Sir, what should 134 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 3: be our military posture when fighting resumes. 135 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 6: Our military posture has to remain the same. This is 136 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 6: a signal to Hispalos, a signal to Iran, to any 137 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 6: who mean to see this thing spread, that we are 138 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 6: there and we will respond to the extent that you 139 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 6: have the houtis firing missiles our ships. If you have 140 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 6: any of the Iranian proxies firing and targeting our soldiers, 141 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 6: there's going to be a response, and we'll have a 142 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 6: major response. Then calibrate that depend upon what they're doing. 143 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 6: So if they have a major attack upon us, I 144 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 6: think all holds are off at that point, so it's 145 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 6: a signal that we're there. We're there as a deterrent. 146 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 6: We're there to defend our forces and to preserve the 147 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 6: peace and stability to the extent it exists in the region. 148 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 6: That's our mission. And can I just take one more 149 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 6: wordy please? I can't let this pass without noting the 150 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 6: passing of Henry Kissinger, who is a dear friend of mine, 151 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 6: whom I'm known for fifty years. And I think that 152 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 6: he would be one who certainly made every effort to 153 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 6: bring peace to the Middle East, but so has every 154 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 6: other former Secretary of State. But he was special and 155 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 6: I think we won't see the likes of him ever again. 156 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 3: Well, I'm glad you brought it up because I wanted 157 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 3: to ask you about him. There's so much talk of legacy. 158 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 3: Obviously this is an American icon, but it's also a 159 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 3: controversial man. Speaking affectionately about him, what would you tell 160 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 3: people who criticize his activities, for instance in Cambodia or 161 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 3: a Laos and some people who would would say that 162 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 3: he violated international law. 163 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 6: Well, Henry Kissinger was the man in the arena, as 164 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 6: was Richard Nixon. Anyone who steps in that arena is 165 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 6: going to get criticism as well as compliments. I knew 166 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 6: Henry Kissinger on a personal level and saw a different 167 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,840 Speaker 6: side of him. He certainly was brilliant beyond a measure. 168 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 6: He certainly was concerned about order and peace. And there's 169 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 6: a little paradox that you think about it. He would say, 170 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 6: or paraphrase, He'll say, you can't have if you have liberty, 171 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 6: you have to have order. You can have liberty without order. 172 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 6: If you have liberty without order, you have a mess. 173 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 6: If you have order without liberty, you've got a menace. 174 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 6: And Kissinger was always trying to balance how do we 175 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 6: preserve freedom and balance that with having order. You cannot 176 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 6: have one without the other. And I think that was 177 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 6: his mission, and he made some very tough decisions, and yes, 178 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 6: people died as resolved it. But most of us in 179 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 6: the world is better off for Henry Kissinger having lived 180 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 6: and given guidance to so many presidents over the years. 181 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 3: It's pretty remarkable to think he was sitting in Beijing 182 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 3: with President she just weeks ago. Secretary, I don't know 183 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 3: when the last time was you spoke with him, But 184 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 3: what would he do right now with the situation in Israel. 185 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 6: I saw him most recently in April there was a 186 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 6: celebration of his hundredth birthday at CSIS, the Senate for 187 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 6: t Take International Studies. He was there with Eric Schmidt, 188 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 6: former the head of Google, and they were talking about 189 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 6: AI and once again Henry was worried about artificial intelligence 190 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 6: getting out of control, which would lead to an extinction 191 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 6: level of vent and that's what he's always been concerned about. 192 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 6: His first book was Nuclear Power and Foreign Policy. That 193 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 6: was the book he wrote back in nineteen seventy I'm sorry, 194 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 6: nineteen sixty nine. That's why he was professor at Harvard. 195 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 6: Since that time, he had been writing about how do 196 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 6: we maintain peace and order in an ever turbulent, spinning world, 197 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 6: kaleidoscopic changes taking place. How do we preserve stability and 198 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 6: order and freedom. That has been his life's mission and 199 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,240 Speaker 6: it was right up until the time he died because 200 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 6: he was working with Eric Schmid on another follow up 201 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 6: book on artificial intelligence. 202 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 3: That's incredible. Well, it's not lost on us, Secretary Cohen 203 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 3: that you he loved dogs. By the way, President Clinton 204 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 3: were the first to return to Vietnam after President Nixon visited. 205 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 3: I know that your careers have overlapped in a lot 206 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 3: of ways, and I'm glad that you could spend some 207 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:50,320 Speaker 3: time with us to talk about Henry Kissinger today, Secretary 208 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 3: of Defense formerly at the Pentagon, William Cohen. We thank you, 209 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 3: sir as always for joining us. Thank you today. I'm Bloomberg. 210 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 3: Come back and see us again soon. I'm Joe Matthew 211 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 3: in New York as we assemble our hand. Rick Davis 212 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 3: and Genie Shanzano are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. I 213 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 3: didn't plan to go right into the Kissinger thing here. 214 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 3: I'd like to talk to both of you more about 215 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 3: what's happening in Israel. But Rick, you spent time with 216 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 3: Henry Kissinger at a very similar event, unless it was 217 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 3: the same one that Secretary Cohen just mentioned. He was 218 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 3: talking about world affairs, geopolitics, and even meeting, as I mentioned, 219 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 3: with President she at one hundred years old. What was 220 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 3: he like when you were with him. 221 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 7: Last Yeah, I think he had the most vital one 222 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 7: hundredth year of anybody's life. The McCain Institute that I 223 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 7: chair hosted him for a very similar conversation with Eric 224 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 7: Schmidt and founder of Bloomberg News, Michael Bloomberg to talk 225 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,920 Speaker 7: about AI, and I echoed the comments that the Secretary 226 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:51,679 Speaker 7: gave just now about Henry's Kissinger's concerns about you know, 227 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 7: where does AI lead us? It's not where it is today. 228 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 7: He was a very strategic thinker. He always thought five, six, 229 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 7: seven steps along the way, and he was concerned that 230 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 7: by the time you got there, you know, you couldn't 231 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 7: contain what could become a very dangerous computer capability. So 232 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 7: I thought it was very pressing. And he'd written a 233 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 7: book along with Eric Schmidt, called The Age of AI, 234 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 7: and it was really his latest passion. Much like the 235 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 7: Secretary said, his beginning was in nuclear power, you know, 236 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 7: his his final work was about the future of electronic power. 237 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 7: So and he was totally totally conscious of world affairs. 238 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 7: He spent a lot of time at our event in 239 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 7: October talking about Israel and Hamas. It had just happened 240 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 7: a week earlier, and the incursion from Hamas into Israel, 241 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 7: and he had his own point of view on it. 242 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 7: And you could tell it that his great mind was 243 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 7: still clued into current events. And it was quite an 244 00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 7: amazing evening. 245 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 3: I want to get Genie's view on this as well, 246 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 3: and get both of your takes on what's happening and 247 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 3: is about to happen in Israel in Gaza as this 248 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 3: story moves under our feet. Once again, thanks for being 249 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 3: with us as always on the fastest show in politics. 250 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 3: We've got a lot more with Rick and Genie as 251 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 3: we just get wound up here on sound On and 252 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 3: an about face on Capitol Hill. We'll talk about the 253 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 3: funding battle as well. The Freedom Caucus is singing apparently 254 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 3: a very different tune today. Maybe it prevents a government shutdown. 255 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 3: That's next. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 256 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 257 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 258 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 259 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 260 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 261 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 3: Secretary of State back in Tel Aviv today, his third 262 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 3: trip there since the Hamas attack on Israel on the 263 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 3: seventh of October. And it's about the next phase because 264 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 3: it does appear that this truce is about to end 265 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 3: now a week long. It was extended by one more 266 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 3: day last night. That's the day we're now in as 267 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 3: Israel waits to see what happens next. Of course, a 268 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 3: lot of this is taking place through intermediaries, Cutter being 269 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 3: one of them. Our CIA director is still there and 270 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 3: anything could happen. But at some point soon it's likely, 271 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 3: as we just discussed with the former Defense Secretary William Cohen, 272 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 3: that the fighting is going to resume. The question is 273 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 3: what form will it take and what will be the 274 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 3: administration's posture at that point. We reassemble our panel with 275 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 3: Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, what's 276 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 3: your thought on this? Are people too quick to call 277 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 3: the end of this truce? There seemed like there was 278 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 3: more optimism yesterday. Things got a little messy and talks 279 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 3: last night. Are we going to see bombing in Gaza 280 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 3: by the end. 281 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 8: Of the day, You know, I don't know about the 282 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 8: end of the day. Hopefully not. Hopefully it extends this pause, 283 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 8: but the reality is, and Secretary Cone is absolutely right, 284 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 8: we are going to see bombing and Gaza the military 285 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 8: action rather will resume. The question is not if, it's 286 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 8: just when. Unfortunately we know that. And I think he 287 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 8: made a really really important point, one among many, which 288 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 8: is that the amount of sway that the United States 289 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 8: has and needs to exercise over Israel is dramatic. I mean, 290 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 8: we saw that with the visit of the high level 291 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 8: military officials from the IDF to Congress the other day, 292 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 8: and the fact that Blincoln is there and so many 293 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 8: of our public officials. The reality is we have a 294 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 8: big voice there. We are very supportive the number one 295 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 8: supporter they have, but we need to be very clear 296 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 8: about where we will draw some lines and what they 297 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 8: can and cannot do as we go forward. And that's 298 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 8: got to be based on what's in our own interest 299 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 8: if we're using public money to support them, which most people, 300 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 8: including myself, think we should be doing. 301 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 3: Rick, the rhetoric seems to speak for itself on both 302 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:11,160 Speaker 3: sides here. Secretary Cohen was expressing his belief, if not hope, 303 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: I guess that there'd be a more restrained approach going 304 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 3: forward here. But the truce may not end. 305 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: Well. 306 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,679 Speaker 3: It didn't feel great last night when it looked like 307 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 3: it might not be extended. We heard from Benjamin Ettania, 308 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 3: who says there is no situation in which we do 309 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 3: not go back to fighting until the end. Some have 310 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 3: wondered what exactly the end looks like here we also 311 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 3: know Hamas says October seventh was a dress rehearsal. Do 312 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 3: you share his hope or could this be full boar 313 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 3: fighting again in Gaza? 314 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 6: Yeah? 315 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 7: Look, I mean we sometimes confuse phraseologies. This has been 316 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 7: a cease fire to allow humanitarian aid to get into Gaza, 317 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 7: but also to allow the work to be done to 318 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 7: get the hostages out. There are still hostages there. There's 319 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 7: still over I think one hundred and fifty hostages or 320 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 7: around one hundred and fifty. So there's still over a 321 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:10,879 Speaker 7: dozen women in the hands of the Hamas. So I 322 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 7: know that that is Israel's top priority. They've said. So 323 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 7: they're talking about extending the truth another day, the ceasefire 324 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 7: another day. But this is not a truce. This is 325 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 7: not a negotiated settlement between parties that said we're going 326 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 7: to lay down our arms and stop fighting. And so 327 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 7: it should always have been expected and should be expected 328 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 7: that Israel would continue their strategy, which is the dismantling 329 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 7: and the eradication of Hamas. Hamas is an existential threat 330 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 7: to Israel. They prove that when they incurred into Israel 331 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 7: and slaughtered civilians. And there's no reason why Israel should 332 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 7: not look at that and say, if we don't handle 333 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 7: it today, it'll happen again in the future. It is 334 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 7: the stated policy of Hamas to eradicate Israel, and so 335 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 7: I think that it should not be expected until that 336 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 7: tone changes, that Israel should change its strategy. 337 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,199 Speaker 3: It sounds like it could start ripping like we were 338 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 3: seeing just seven days ago, But of course we'll find 339 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 3: out together and if this is extendedly let you know. 340 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 3: So much of the conversation this week Rick and Genie 341 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 3: has been about funding for Israel, how that may hinge 342 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 3: on a deal on border security. But there's been an 343 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 3: amazing development here in the debate over government funding that 344 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 3: appears to be good news. You know, we could start 345 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,239 Speaker 3: shutting down in fifty days now that we have this 346 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 3: staggered or laddered cr and the chair of the Freedom 347 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 3: Caucus is backing off. Apparently the group is backing off 348 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 3: its demands that we throw away the debt ceiling deal 349 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 3: from months ago and cut top level funding even below 350 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 3: the levels that we're already agreed to, but with the 351 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 3: White House, with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and others. Let's 352 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 3: hear from the chair of the Freedom Caucus, Scott Perry. 353 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 3: Here's how he put it. 354 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 9: It's still too much for many of us, but was 355 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 9: agreed to around Memorial Day. Was this FRA number of 356 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 9: one point five to nine trillion, No more gimmicks. Most 357 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 9: of the House voted for it, most of the Senate 358 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 9: voted for it. That's where we have to be. Don't 359 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 9: be adding stuff onto it. Let's write the appropriations bills. 360 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 9: Let's get the spending bills right. Let's set that as 361 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 9: the number, and then when we do that, let's start 362 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 9: conferencing bills. We're calling on our friends in the Senate. 363 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 9: My colleagues here that are with us today already agree 364 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,640 Speaker 9: with this. We need Senate leadership to put these bills 365 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 9: to conference. Let's get the process started where the American 366 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 9: people know what's being spent, know how their members vote, 367 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 9: and know what it's being spent on. 368 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 3: Okay, well, Kevin McCarthy must be rolling right now, Genie, 369 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 3: because he got fired for putting that deal together and 370 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 3: having Democrats vote on a CR to get us through 371 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 3: all of this, and now it appears the Freedom Caucus 372 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 3: feels differently. What is going on? And is it shut 373 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 3: down suddenly less likely? 374 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 8: Yeah, it was fascinating when he made this statement. So 375 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 8: many reporters thought that they potentially had misheard him, that 376 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 8: the congressman had made a mistake and they're double checking, 377 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 8: and no, he apparently meant what he said. You know, 378 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 8: the question is why have they taken off suddenly their 379 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 8: rose colored glasses and woken up to the fact that 380 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 8: they do not control the Senate and they will get 381 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 8: rolled by the Senate if they pursue this. Is this, 382 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 8: just as you know, potentially could be an attempt to 383 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 8: humiliate Kevin McCarthy all over again. It's really really tough 384 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 8: to tell. I hope that it means that this is 385 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 8: off the table, the idea that we would shut down again, 386 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 8: But the reality is we can never tell because given 387 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 8: how tight the House is, it takes just one member 388 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 8: of this caucus. And as the same time this news 389 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 8: is breaking, you've got this piece in Politico where you 390 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 8: have members of the Freedom Caucus describing the new speaker 391 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 8: in some pretty negative terms, saying his performance has plummeted 392 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 8: that he has raised, you know, their ire against him. 393 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 8: So it's hard to tell if this is completely off 394 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 8: the table and they're going to be working with some 395 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 8: modicum of sanity, or if one member will potentially do 396 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 8: what Matt Gates did just you know a few weeks ago. 397 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 8: And Joe, you mentioned fifty days. I think that's fifty 398 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 8: days for all of us real folks, But in Congress, 399 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 8: I think we're looking at more like nineteen or something. 400 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, so they begin. 401 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 8: Moving on this really really fast if they're going to 402 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 8: get it done. 403 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 3: So what do you think happened here? 404 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: Rick? 405 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 3: We know Speaker Johnson met with Mitch McConnell just two 406 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 3: days ago. Did that lead to a couple of phone 407 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 3: calls brought Freedom Caucus to the table, or do you 408 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 3: think the Freedom Caucus is just worried that the Senate 409 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 3: would add even more money to that top line? 410 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,919 Speaker 7: Oh, I don't think they're worried about adding more money. 411 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 7: They've got a number that in the Senate they're adhering to, 412 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 7: the one point five to nine trillion number. Said so 413 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 7: at the beginning and thought it was foolish for the 414 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 7: House to try and renegotiate after agreeing to that number. 415 00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 7: So the Senate is pretty stable on that. I think 416 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 7: this is just a reality of what Genie was just saying, 417 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 7: which is they've got very few days to actually pass 418 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 7: seven or eight appropriations bills, and then. 419 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 6: As. 420 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 7: The Chairman of the Freedom Caucus said Perry, He's like, 421 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 7: and then we have to conference those with the Senate 422 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 7: because they are the House appropriation bills are full of 423 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 7: all kinds of strange policies that they know are going 424 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 7: to get stripped out by the Senate. So the one 425 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 7: thing nobody wants is a continuing resolution for the balance 426 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 7: of fiscal year twenty twenty four. I mean, that's a 427 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 7: nightmare for everybody. That means that all the money that 428 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,679 Speaker 7: was spent, appropriated and spent for twenty three looks exactly 429 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 7: like the budget for twenty four. Nobody wins, it's all losers. 430 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 7: And so I do think that's probably where they are going. 431 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 7: Is my god, if we don't get these appropriations bills done, 432 00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 7: you know we're going to be stuck with a continuing 433 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 7: resolution for the balance of the year, and that's a disaster. 434 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 3: I think that might be an actual rational thought. I'm 435 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 3: actually encouraged by this who would have thought today? With 436 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, I think I deserve a 437 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 3: little credit. I have not mentioned George Santos yet. Don't 438 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 3: tell me this is not a policy driven show. 439 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 440 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 441 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,879 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 442 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 2: Business App. 443 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 1: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. 444 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 3: Welcomed hour two of Bloomberg Sound On with an eye 445 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 3: on Israel and what could happen in the next few 446 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 3: hours could be pivotal here. It does feel different now 447 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 3: than it did at this time yesterday, when there was hope, 448 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 3: there was optimism for an extension of what is now 449 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 3: a week long truce. That optimism doesn't seem to be 450 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 3: in the air quite the extent like we saw yesterday. 451 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 3: And it has a lot to do with the confusion 452 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,320 Speaker 3: that led to just the one day extension last evening. 453 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,080 Speaker 3: Israel wasn't happy with the information on hostages that it 454 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 3: was receiving from Hamas. There's great distrust here, and of 455 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 3: course we're working through intermediaries and it's very difficult to 456 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 3: follow the bad from what is clearly a minute by minute, 457 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 3: hour by hour situation, and that's why we wanted to 458 00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,719 Speaker 3: get the take of Nick Watdams, of course, Bloomberg's national 459 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 3: security reporter working out of Washington and joining us now 460 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:19,919 Speaker 3: on sound on. 461 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 7: Nick. 462 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 3: It's great to see and thank you for your time. 463 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 3: Is it likely that this ends tonight? 464 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 10: Well, it's a great question, and it's one obviously that 465 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 10: we are all trying to figure out the answer to. 466 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 10: You know, there are a lot of questions here. For 467 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 10: one thing, Secretary of State Tony Blincoln is in the region. 468 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 10: It would be a bad look for Israel to end 469 00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 10: this truce while he's there, so there is some impetus 470 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,680 Speaker 10: to have at least another extension with the US Secretary 471 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 10: of State there. He also was dropping the hammer a 472 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 10: little bit on the Israelis, saying, yes, you know, you 473 00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 10: should have the ability to proceed with the counter against Hamas, 474 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,199 Speaker 10: but you know, at the same time, it must be 475 00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 10: done in accordance with international humanitarian laws. So that was 476 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 10: a shift in tone and emphasis. The other issue that 477 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,360 Speaker 10: I'm thinking about is, you know, it's not clear how 478 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 10: many more hostages Hamas actually has to trade. So the 479 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 10: truce has operated under the premise that Hamas would release 480 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 10: about ten people every day in exchange for thirty Palestinians 481 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 10: and Israeli jails. And how many more people do they 482 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 10: have to keep that up. It's a big question. 483 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 3: It's really an important point because it seemed to really 484 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 3: become clear last evening Nick that Hamas did not have 485 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 3: the information that Israel thought it did. Israel believes one 486 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 3: hundred and forty five hostages are still being held in Gaza. 487 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 3: Does anyone know where they are? 488 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 10: Well, you know, the big issue there is, yeah, there 489 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 10: may be one hundred and forty five hostages, but the 490 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,439 Speaker 10: terms of this truce were really around the idea of 491 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 10: Hamas freeing women and children, and there were believed to 492 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 10: be seventy eighty women and children. But also the issue 493 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 10: was that some were held by Hamas, some were held 494 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 10: by Islamic jihad. So what you saw over the last 495 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 10: couple of weeks, the reason why this was so fraud 496 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 10: was the US and Israel really pressing Hamas to give 497 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 10: them the list of names of people who they would 498 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 10: be able to release, and also to acknowledge that maybe 499 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 10: there were a lot of people they didn't know where 500 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 10: they were, whether they were still alive, who was holding them. 501 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 10: So the idea was, Okay, you release the folks you've got, 502 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 10: and that also gives time for Hamas to basically get 503 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 10: a sense for where those other people are to be 504 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 10: able to release them too. But you know, the big 505 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,119 Speaker 10: question for this trus is if they want to extend it, 506 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 10: they're going to have to start looking at the possibility 507 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 10: of releasing men, releasing Israeli soldiers. That's going to be 508 00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 10: a lot more complicated. 509 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 3: Well, i'll tell you once the fighting does resume, and 510 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 3: that seems to be the determination on both sides here 511 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,199 Speaker 3: Benjamin et Yah who says, under no circumstances will we 512 00:27:56,280 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 3: not finish this job? Hamas says October seventh, a dress 513 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 3: rehearsal neck And you wonder if there's any hope for 514 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 3: hostages when it's fighting resumes, how could they possibly be protected. 515 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 10: Well, I mean, that's the big question that we're all 516 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 10: trying to figure out, you know, because it would look 517 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 10: if Israel presses ahead with the campaign and then also 518 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 10: moves further south, you know, there's going to be an 519 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 10: even larger humanitarian outcry because all of the civilians who 520 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 10: fled nor the Gaza. Where did they go? They went south? 521 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 10: And if Israel presses the campaign into the south, you're 522 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 10: going to see more civilian casualties. Obviously, the location of 523 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 10: a lot of those hostages is unknown. Maybe they're in 524 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 10: the north, but maybe they're also in the south. We 525 00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 10: don't know where Hamas is. So that's why you hear 526 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 10: Blink and ramping up his his admonitions, and you know, 527 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 10: the US idea really being listen. Israel says that it's 528 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 10: going to take as long as it takes to do this, 529 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 10: but the US, I think, has a much shorter time 530 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 10: horizon here. They're saying, listen, you have you have days 531 00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 10: or weeks to press ahead with this campaign is not 532 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 10: going to be a month's long thing. Just the support 533 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,720 Speaker 10: is not going to be there, especially as he push south. 534 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 10: So that's all questions there, grapplings. 535 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 3: Lastly, Nick Wadams, is the CIA director, Is Bill Burns 536 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 3: still in cutter And how significant is that he seems 537 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 3: to be the center of at least our contribution to 538 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 3: this deal. 539 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 10: Well, I mean, you know, the CIA does not give 540 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 10: much to our chagrin, does not give a day to 541 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 10: day updates on his whereabouts, but as far as we 542 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 10: last knew he was there. I mean, what you're seeing 543 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 10: here is just I find completely fascinating because it shows 544 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 10: that the CIA director very seasoned diplomat, a career foreign 545 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 10: service officer before his retirement, and then he joined the CIA. 546 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 10: I mean, he is just absolutely the lynchpin of this 547 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 10: administration's efforts, and it looks like he has gained the 548 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 10: trust of all sides. Obviously, he has the advantage unlike 549 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 10: the Secretary of State. He can fly relatively incognito and 550 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 10: doesn't have to take, you know, a passel of journalists 551 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 10: with him anywhere he go. But he clearly has the knowledge, 552 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 10: the background that he helped negotiate the around nuclear deal, 553 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 10: so you know he's got the experience to be able 554 00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 10: to do this. I think Biden's feeling is safe to 555 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 10: say if anybody can get it done, it's Bill Burns. 556 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 3: This isn't that amazing. I think this is going to 557 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 3: end up being an amazing story. I realized it could 558 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 3: take years for it to be told. Nick, maybe you'll 559 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 3: write the book, but that's got to be an incredible 560 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 3: room to be in to be a flowing deal. Nick Wadams, 561 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 3: bluebo National Security Team leader. 562 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 1: You got that right. 563 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 3: It's great to see you, my friend. Thank you for joining, 564 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,040 Speaker 3: of course from Washington. I'm Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World 565 00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 3: Headquarters in New York. The other big story we're balancing 566 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 3: here is to do with what's taking place in Washington, 567 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 3: the funding battle, not just to fund Israel in Ukraine, 568 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 3: but to keep the government open past January. And we've 569 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 3: got a lot to work through here. There is a headline, 570 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 3: as we told you, that the chair of the Freedom Caucus, 571 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 3: Scott Perry, came out in front of the cameras abandoning 572 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 3: demands for broad spending cuts that were included in the 573 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 3: debt ceiling deal. Remember they established a top line number there. 574 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 3: The Freedom Caucus thought it was still too high. Apparently 575 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 3: they're good with one point five to nine trillion dollars. 576 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy saying, why did I get fired again? And 577 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,560 Speaker 3: we want to bring in Mark Goldwine, the Senior Vice 578 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 3: President's senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible 579 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 3: Federal Budget. Market's great to see you. I hope you 580 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,080 Speaker 3: had a good Thanksgiving. Great to have you back on Bloomberg. 581 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 3: Does this make you more optimistic about avoiding a government shutdown. 582 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 11: Well, we certainly narrowed the disagreement. The Senate is still 583 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 11: wants to spend at least fourteen billion dollars more than 584 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 11: the deal, And even though the House says they want 585 00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 11: to take the Fiscal Responsibility Act deal, they've said they 586 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 11: don't want to do a number of these side deals 587 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 11: that increase the actual number. So there still is a 588 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,480 Speaker 11: pretty significant gulf between the House and the Senate, but 589 00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 11: it's much narrower than it was before, and I think 590 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 11: they'll be able to close it, at least on a 591 00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 11: temporary basis. 592 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 3: So what's your on this in general with the laddered CR. 593 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 3: We haven't talked to you since this idea first emerged. Here, 594 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 3: we're going to start running out of money at the 595 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 3: end of January. We will completely run out of money 596 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 3: in February. Do you see another swing at a CR 597 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 3: or can they get a bunch of spending bills done 598 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 3: between them and then. 599 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,120 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think of the laddered CR mores rolling shutdowns, right, 600 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 11: But it's really just two sets of bills that are 601 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 11: very close together. So at the end of the day, 602 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 11: they need to deal one way or another. By late January, 603 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 11: My best guess is we don't get it done in time, 604 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,719 Speaker 11: and we do another CR, because that's that's how Congress 605 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 11: normally operates. But there's a path, there's a path to 606 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,200 Speaker 11: get full appropriations done. And the Defense Department, I think 607 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,160 Speaker 11: is really starting to turn the screws because when they're 608 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 11: operating under a CR, it's very limited what they're able 609 00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 11: to do. 610 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, the fact that the NDAA has become as political 611 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 3: as it has tells us a lot about where we are. 612 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 3: And there's a matter of supplemental funding that I already 613 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 3: mentioned before. You came on today about Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, 614 00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 3: and it seems to all be hinging on an agreement 615 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,240 Speaker 3: on the border. It's something that I talked about yesterday 616 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 3: with Congresswoman Nicole Malia Takis of New York. This is 617 00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 3: a Republican voice. Listen to what she said. 618 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 12: The Republicans certainly want border security, but we're willing to 619 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 12: work with the Democrats on more visas to make sure 620 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 12: people can come and work legally. We do have an 621 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 12: employment issue in our country where we have a worker shortage. 622 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 12: This can be a drastic it could be a win 623 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 12: win if we do it right. 624 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 3: Mark what do you think about this? It appears Democrats 625 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 3: are opening their minds to the idea of asylum law changes. 626 00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 3: I realized there are sticking points when it comes to parole. 627 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 3: But could we have a grand bargain on border security 628 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 3: that would then allow everything else we just mentioned to 629 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 3: fall in place. 630 00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 11: Well, I don't know if there's going to be a 631 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 11: grand bargain, although you know, the idea of securing the 632 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,120 Speaker 11: border better and increasing immigration for you know, in certain 633 00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 11: cases I think has been long explored and would be 634 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:00,600 Speaker 11: smart for them economy. 635 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 4: But it's possible that a mini. 636 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 11: Bargain on immigration or on the border could open the 637 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 11: door to other funding, including for Ukraine and for Israel. 638 00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 11: I know there's there's a separate issue that the House 639 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,800 Speaker 11: does not want to vote for Ukraine and Israel together 640 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 11: and the President doesn't want them separately. 641 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 4: That's not insurmountable. 642 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 11: I mean, the House could pass two different packages, send 643 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 11: him to the President of the same day. You know, 644 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 11: he can sign him in the same ceremony and they 645 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,000 Speaker 11: both win. But it is a challenge. 646 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,680 Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you it's not the development that I 647 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:35,040 Speaker 3: expected today in terms of the Freedom Caucus here, and 648 00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 3: it makes me wonder your thoughts on how the speaker's doing. 649 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 3: Mike Johnson and got a pretty tough piece in Politico 650 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 3: that a lot of folks are talking about here that 651 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 3: the conservative right in the House is not impressed with 652 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,279 Speaker 3: his job so far, and what you just suggested, maybe 653 00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,160 Speaker 3: another cr could mean he gets fired, and following the 654 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,240 Speaker 3: path of Kevin McCarthy. 655 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 11: Doesn't it look he's been at the job for like 656 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 11: six legislative days. I think you know, so you wouldn't 657 00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,239 Speaker 11: You wouldn't have your job review and he'd only been 658 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 11: working for two weeks. 659 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,800 Speaker 3: And everyone has your patience. 660 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:06,919 Speaker 4: So it's time will tell. 661 00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,360 Speaker 11: But it's far too early to make any kind of 662 00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 11: judgments one way or another. 663 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:15,280 Speaker 3: Well maybe it is for you or for serious individuals, 664 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 3: but it's his conference he needs to worry about. And 665 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:19,840 Speaker 3: I just wonder if that idea of a motion to 666 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,759 Speaker 3: vacate is still on your menu of options, or if 667 00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 3: that's something that is going to rest with Kevin McCarthy. 668 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,440 Speaker 11: I think that the pressure against doing that again is 669 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:33,399 Speaker 11: so strong. I don't think they want to go through 670 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 11: that again. It was very painful, and so he'd have 671 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,400 Speaker 11: to do something I think pretty bad to get a 672 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 11: motion to vacate and be vacate, although you never. 673 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 3: Know, you never know. As we spend time with Mark 674 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 3: Goldwine from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, this 675 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,240 Speaker 3: is the part where I'll get a bunch of nasty grams. 676 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:53,959 Speaker 1: Mark. 677 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 3: But I have to ask you because it's I realized 678 00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,960 Speaker 3: it's part of your view here at the Committee. When 679 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 3: we start talking about budgeting, when we start talking about 680 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:08,279 Speaker 3: eliminating deficits, we never talk about revenue, should we Yeah, well. 681 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,400 Speaker 4: No, we are talking about revenue right now. We're talking about. 682 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 3: Tax cuts, right, raising revenue to be clear. 683 00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 11: Yeah, apparently Democrats and Republicans want to come together and 684 00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 11: cut eight hundred billion dollars more of taxes at the 685 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,560 Speaker 11: end of the year for businesses and for the child 686 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,080 Speaker 11: tax credit. This is exactly the wrong conversation. We are 687 00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,279 Speaker 11: running two trillion dollar deficits, interest rates are four and 688 00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 11: a half five percent, and we're talking about tax cuts. 689 00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 4: That's crazy. 690 00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,800 Speaker 3: But if you say I'm going to raise taxes, you 691 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 3: don't get elected. 692 00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:37,919 Speaker 1: Right. 693 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 11: Well, well, look, I mean, at one way or another, 694 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,360 Speaker 11: we're going to have to close the gap between taxes 695 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:45,920 Speaker 11: and spending, and none of it's going to be popular. 696 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 11: It's not popular to cut social security, or cut defense, 697 00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 11: or raise taxes. 698 00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 4: But it's also not popular to run massive deficits. 699 00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 11: That lead to inflation, that lead to higher interest rates, 700 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 11: that slow income growth, that put our trust funds in danger. 701 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 11: So at some point they're going to have to choose 702 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 11: to do an unpopular thing to prevent an even more 703 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:04,320 Speaker 11: unpopular thing from happening. 704 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,799 Speaker 3: Well, so does the Committee have a position on this? 705 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 3: Would it include, for instance, we're sending the twenty seventeen 706 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 3: Trump tax cuts. Would that close the gap on a 707 00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,560 Speaker 3: level that would please you? 708 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,360 Speaker 11: Well, those tax cuts are already scheduled to expire in 709 00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,879 Speaker 11: two years, so we're sending them. Wouldn't save very much money. 710 00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,320 Speaker 11: But as a first step, we shouldn't extend any of 711 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,400 Speaker 11: those tax cuts unless we have paid force. 712 00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:28,040 Speaker 4: We should look carefully. 713 00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:28,239 Speaker 1: Look. 714 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 11: Some of them are good. It was a whole package. 715 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 11: You did lots of things. Some was good, some was bad. 716 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,959 Speaker 11: We should extend the good, build on the okay, ditch 717 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,440 Speaker 11: the bad, and pay for it. But all that's going 718 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,600 Speaker 11: to do is stop things from getting worse. We're actually 719 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,480 Speaker 11: going to need to raise taxes. That's going to mean 720 00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 11: I have to mean cutting tax breaks, more seriously raising rates, 721 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,319 Speaker 11: looking at other kinds of taxes, maybe a carbon. 722 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:49,840 Speaker 4: Tax, and then that's not going to solve it. 723 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 11: Also, we're also going to look at the spending side, 724 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,080 Speaker 11: get healthcare costs under control, extend our appropriations caps, make 725 00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 11: social security solvent. 726 00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:57,919 Speaker 4: None of this stuff is going to be. 727 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:02,279 Speaker 11: Super popular because, you know, because we've over promised. We 728 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 11: are promising more in government programs than we're raising in 729 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:06,759 Speaker 11: Texas and something has got to give. 730 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 3: You're going to have some chippy interviews in two years 731 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,040 Speaker 3: when that debate starts all over again. It'll be even 732 00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 3: sooner than that, I'm sure. It's just, you know, it's 733 00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 3: very interesting to me that we don't even have the 734 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,920 Speaker 3: conversation on most days when people are wringing their hands 735 00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:24,320 Speaker 3: about deficits and debt in this country. And look, I 736 00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,799 Speaker 3: guess this could take on a lot of different forms here, 737 00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,680 Speaker 3: Mark Goldwine, but at some point we're going to have 738 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 3: to get into it as we continue to kick the can. 739 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,080 Speaker 3: He's the senior vice president and Senior policy director at 740 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,040 Speaker 3: the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget's good to see you, Mark. 741 00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,759 Speaker 3: Thank you for joining and sharing insights today here on 742 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,920 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's sound On. It's the fastest show in politics. I'm 743 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,360 Speaker 3: Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York, rubbing elbows 744 00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:51,560 Speaker 3: with the rich and famous. Thanks for listening to The 745 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 3: sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 746 00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,520 Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 747 00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 3: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 748 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:05,840 Speaker 3: d C. At one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.