WEBVTT - AI & The Productivity Paradox

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome, Welcome, Welcome to Smart Talks with IBM.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello, Hello, Welcome to Smart Talks with IBM, a podcast

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<v Speaker 2>from Pushkin Industries, iHeartRadio and IBM. I'm Malcolm Gladwell. This season,

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<v Speaker 2>we're diving back into the world of artificial intelligence, but

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<v Speaker 2>with a focus on the powerful concept of open its possibilities, implications,

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<v Speaker 2>and misconceptions. We'll look at openness from a variety of

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<v Speaker 2>angles and explore how the concept is already reshaping industries,

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<v Speaker 2>ways of doing business and our very notion of what's possible.

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<v Speaker 2>And for the first episode of this season, we're bringing

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<v Speaker 2>you a special conversation. I recently sat down with Rob Thomas.

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<v Speaker 2>Rob is the senior vice president of Software and chief

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<v Speaker 2>Commercial Officer of IBM. I spoke to him in front

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<v Speaker 2>of a live audience as part of New York Tech Week.

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<v Speaker 2>We discussed how business is can harness the immense productivity

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<v Speaker 2>benefits of AI while implementing it in a responsible and

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<v Speaker 2>ethical manner. We also broke down a fascinating concept that

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<v Speaker 2>Rob believes about AI, known as the productivity paradox. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>let's get to the conversation. How are we doing good?

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<v Speaker 3>Rob?

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<v Speaker 2>This is our our second time. We did one of

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<v Speaker 2>these in the middle of the pandemic. But now it's

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<v Speaker 2>all such a blur now that us can figure out

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<v Speaker 2>when it was.

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<v Speaker 3>I know it's hard to those are like a blurry years.

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<v Speaker 3>You don't know what happened, right.

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<v Speaker 2>But well, it's good to see you, to meet you again.

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<v Speaker 2>I wanted to start by going back. You've been at

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<v Speaker 2>IBM twenty years.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that right? Twenty five in July, believe it or not.

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<v Speaker 2>So you were a kid when you joined.

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<v Speaker 3>I was four.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So I want to contrast present day Rob and

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five years ago. Rob. When you arrive at IBM,

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<v Speaker 2>what do you think your job is going to be?

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<v Speaker 3>It, your career is going.

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<v Speaker 2>Where do you think the kind of problems you're going

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<v Speaker 2>to be addressing are?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's kind of surreal because I joined IBM Consulting

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm coming out of school and you quickly realize

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<v Speaker 1>what the job of a consultant is to tell other

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<v Speaker 1>companies what to do. And I was like, I literally

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<v Speaker 1>know nothing, and so you're immediately trying to figure out,

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<v Speaker 1>so how am I going to be relevant given that

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<v Speaker 1>I know absolutely nothing to advise other companies on what

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<v Speaker 1>they should be doing. And I remember it well, like

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<v Speaker 1>we were sitting in a room. When you're a consultant,

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<v Speaker 1>you're waiting for somebody else to find work for you.

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<v Speaker 1>A bunch of us sitting in a room, and somebody

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<v Speaker 1>walks in and says, we need somebody that knows Visio.

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<v Speaker 3>Does anybody know Visio? I'd never heard of Visio.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know if anybody in the room has. So

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<v Speaker 1>everybody's like sitting around looking at their shoes. So finally

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<v Speaker 1>I was like, I know it. So I raised my hand.

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<v Speaker 1>They're like, great, we got a project for you next week.

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<v Speaker 1>So I was like, all right, I have like three

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<v Speaker 1>days to figure out what visio is, and I hope

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<v Speaker 1>I can actually figure out how to use it now.

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<v Speaker 3>Luckily, it wasn't like.

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<v Speaker 1>A programming language. I mean, it's pretty much a drag

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<v Speaker 1>and drop capability. And so I literally left the office,

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<v Speaker 1>went to a bookstore, bought the first three books on

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<v Speaker 1>Visio I could find, spent the whole week in reading

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<v Speaker 1>the books, and showed up and got to work on

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<v Speaker 1>the project.

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<v Speaker 3>And so it was a bit of a risky move,

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<v Speaker 3>but I think that's kind of you.

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<v Speaker 1>This well, but if you don't take risk you'll never

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<v Speaker 1>you'll never achieve, and so does some extent. Everybody's making

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<v Speaker 1>everything up all the time. It's like, can you learn

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<v Speaker 1>faster than somebody else? Is what the difference is in

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<v Speaker 1>almost every part of life. And so it was not planned,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was an accident, but it kind of forced

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<v Speaker 1>me to figure out that you're gonna have to figure

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<v Speaker 1>things out.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, we're here to talk about AI. And I'm

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<v Speaker 2>curious about the evolution of your understanding or IBM's understanding

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<v Speaker 2>of my AI. At what point in the last twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five years do you begin to think, oh, this is

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<v Speaker 2>really going to be at the core of what we

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<v Speaker 2>think about and work on at this company.

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<v Speaker 1>The computer scientist John McCarthy, he was he's the person

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<v Speaker 1>that's credited with coining the phrase artificial intelligence. It's like

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<v Speaker 1>in the fifties, and he made an interesting comedy said

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<v Speaker 1>he said, once it works, it's no longer called AI,

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<v Speaker 1>and that then became it's called like the AI effect,

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<v Speaker 1>which is it seems very difficult, very mysterious, but once

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<v Speaker 1>it becomes commonplace, it's just no longer what it is.

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<v Speaker 1>And so if you put that frame on it, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we've always been doing AI at some level, and

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<v Speaker 1>I even think back to when I joined IBM in

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<v Speaker 1>ninety nine.

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<v Speaker 3>At that point there.

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<v Speaker 1>Was work on rules based engines, analytics.

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<v Speaker 3>All of this was happening.

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<v Speaker 1>So it all depends on how you really define that term.

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<v Speaker 1>You could argue that elements of statistics, probability, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>exactly AI, but it certainly feeds into it. And so

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we've been working on this topic of

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<v Speaker 1>how do we deliver better insights better automation since IBM

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<v Speaker 1>was formed. If you read about what Thomas Watson Junior did,

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<v Speaker 1>that was all about automating tasks that AI well, probably

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<v Speaker 1>certainly not by today's definition, but it's in the same

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<v Speaker 1>zip code.

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<v Speaker 2>So from your perspective, it feels a lot more like

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<v Speaker 2>an evolution than a revolution.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that a fair statement, yes, which I think most

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<v Speaker 1>great things in technology tend to happen that way. Many

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<v Speaker 1>of the revolutions, if you will, tend to fizzle out.

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<v Speaker 2>But even given that is there, I guess what I'm

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<v Speaker 2>asking is, I'm curious about whether there was a a

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<v Speaker 2>moment in that evolution when you had to readjust your

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<v Speaker 2>expectations about what AI was going to be capable of.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, was there, you know, was there a particular

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<v Speaker 2>innovation or a particular problem that was solved that made

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<v Speaker 2>you think, oh, this is different than what I thought.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say the moments that caught our attention certainly

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<v Speaker 1>casper Off winning the chess tournament Nobody or Deep Blue

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<v Speaker 1>beating casper Off. I should say, nobody really thought that

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<v Speaker 1>was possible before that, and then it was Watson winning Jeopardy.

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<v Speaker 1>These were moments that said, maybe there's more here than

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<v Speaker 1>we even thought was possible. And so I do think

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<v Speaker 1>there's points in time where we realized maybe way more could.

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<v Speaker 3>Be done than we had even imagined.

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<v Speaker 1>But I do think it's consistent progress every month and

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<v Speaker 1>every year versus some seminal moment.

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<v Speaker 3>Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Certainly, large language models as of recent have caught everybody's

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<v Speaker 1>attention because it has a direct consumer application. But I

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<v Speaker 1>would almost think of that as what Netscape was for

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<v Speaker 1>the for the web browser. Yeah, it brought the Internet

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<v Speaker 1>to everybody, but that didn't become the Internet per se.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>I have a cousin who worked for IBM for forty

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<v Speaker 2>one years. I saw him this weekend. He's in Toronto.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, I said, do you work for Rob Thomas.

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<v Speaker 3>He went like this.

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<v Speaker 2>He goes, he said, I'm five layers down. But so

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<v Speaker 2>I always whenever I see my cousin, I ask him,

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<v Speaker 2>can you tell me again what you do? Because it's

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<v Speaker 2>always changing, right, I guess this is a function of

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<v Speaker 2>working at IBM. So eventually he just gives up and says,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we're just solving problems. So what we're doing,

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<v Speaker 2>which I sort of loved as a kind of frame,

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<v Speaker 2>And I was curious, What's what's the coolest problem you

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<v Speaker 2>ever worked on? Not biggest, not most important, but the coolest,

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<v Speaker 2>the one that's like that sort of makes you smile

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<v Speaker 2>when you think back on it.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably when I was in microelectronics, because it was a

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<v Speaker 1>world I had no exposure to. I hadn't studied computer science,

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<v Speaker 1>and we were building a lot of high performance semiconductor technology,

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<v Speaker 1>so just chips that do a really great job of

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<v Speaker 1>processing something or other. And we figured out that there

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<v Speaker 1>was a market in consumer gaming that was starting to happen,

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<v Speaker 1>and we got to the point where we became the

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<v Speaker 1>chip inside the Nintendo. We the Microsoft Xbox Sony PlayStation,

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<v Speaker 1>so we basically had the entire gaming market running on

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<v Speaker 1>IBM chips and.

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<v Speaker 2>To use every parent basically is pointing at you and saying.

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<v Speaker 1>You're the Probably well, they would have found it from anybody.

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<v Speaker 1>But it was the first time I could explain my

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<v Speaker 1>job to my kids, who were quite young at that time,

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<v Speaker 1>like what I did, Like it was more tangible for

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<v Speaker 1>them than saying we solve problems or douce you know,

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<v Speaker 1>build solutions like it became very tangible for them, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's, you know, a rewarding part of the

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<v Speaker 1>job is when you can help your family actually understand

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<v Speaker 1>what you do. Most people can't do that. It's probably

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<v Speaker 1>easier for you. They can, they can see the books,

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<v Speaker 1>but for for some of us in the business the

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<v Speaker 1>business world, it's not always as obvious. So that was

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<v Speaker 1>like one example where the dots really connected.

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<v Speaker 2>There were a couple there's a couple of stuck about

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit of this in the context of of AI.

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<v Speaker 2>I love because I love the frame of problem solving

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<v Speaker 2>as a way of understanding what the function of the

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<v Speaker 2>technology is. So I know that you guys did something,

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<v Speaker 2>did some work with I never know how to pronounce

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<v Speaker 2>it is it Sevilla Sevilla with the football club Severe

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<v Speaker 2>in Spain. Tell me about Tell me a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>about that. What problem were they trying to solve and

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<v Speaker 2>why did they call you?

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<v Speaker 1>In Every sports franchise is trying to get an advantage, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Let's just be that clear. Everybody's how can I use data, analytics, insights,

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<v Speaker 1>anything that will make us one percent better on the

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<v Speaker 1>field at some point in the future. And Seville reached

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<v Speaker 1>out to us because they had seen some of the

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<v Speaker 1>We've done some work with the Toronto Raptors in the

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<v Speaker 1>past and others, and their thought was maybe there's something

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<v Speaker 1>we could do. They'd heard all about generative AI, they

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<v Speaker 1>heard about large language models. And the problem, back to

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<v Speaker 1>your point on solving problems, was we want to do

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<v Speaker 1>a way better job of assessing talent, because really the

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<v Speaker 1>lifeblood of a sports franchise is can you continue to

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<v Speaker 1>cult a talent, Can you find talent that others don't find?

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<v Speaker 1>Can you see something in somebody that they don't see

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<v Speaker 1>in themselves or maybe no other.

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<v Speaker 3>Team season them.

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<v Speaker 1>And we ended up building somebody with them called Scout Advisor,

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<v Speaker 1>which is built on Watson X, which basically just ingests

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<v Speaker 1>tons and tons of data, and we like to think

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<v Speaker 1>of it as finding you know, the needle in the

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<v Speaker 1>haystack of you know, here's three players that aren't being considered.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not on the top teams today, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>working with them together we found some pretty good insights

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<v Speaker 1>that's helped them out.

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<v Speaker 2>How What was intriguing to me was we're not just

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<v Speaker 2>talking about quantitative data. We're also talking about qualitative data.

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<v Speaker 2>But that's the puzzle part of the thing that fastens me.

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<v Speaker 2>How does one incorporate qualitative analysis into that sort of

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<v Speaker 2>so you just feeding in scouting reports and things like that.

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<v Speaker 1>I got to realize, think about how much I can

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<v Speaker 1>act actually disclosed it. But if you think about so,

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<v Speaker 1>quantitative is relatively easy. Every team collects that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what's their forty yard dash? They use that term, certainly

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<v Speaker 1>not in Spain. That's all quantitative. Qualitative is what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>off the field. It could be diet, it could be habits,

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<v Speaker 1>it could be behavior. You can imagine a range of

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<v Speaker 1>things that would all feed into an athlete's performance and

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<v Speaker 1>so relationships.

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<v Speaker 3>There's many different aspects, and.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's trying to figure out the right blend of

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<v Speaker 1>quantitative and qualitative that gives you a unique insight.

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<v Speaker 2>How transparent is that kind of system? I mean, is

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<v Speaker 2>it telling you it's saying pick this guy not this guy,

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<v Speaker 2>But is it telling you why it prefers this guy

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<v Speaker 2>to this guy?

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<v Speaker 3>Is that?

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<v Speaker 1>I think for anything in the realm of AI, you

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<v Speaker 1>have to answer the why question, otherwise you fall into

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<v Speaker 1>the trap of the you know, the proverbial black box,

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<v Speaker 1>and then wait, I made this decision, I'd never understood

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 1>why it didn't work out.

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 3>So you always have to answer why without a doubt?

0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:14.160
<v Speaker 2>And how is why? Answered?

0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:20.679
<v Speaker 1>Sources of data, the reasoning that went into it, and

0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:24.040
<v Speaker 1>so it's basically just tracing back the chain of how

0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.960
<v Speaker 1>you got to the answer. And in the case of

0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:29.640
<v Speaker 1>what we do in Watson X is we have IBM models.

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.719
<v Speaker 1>We also use some other open source models, So it

0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.560
<v Speaker 1>would be which model was used, what was the data

0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 1>set that was fed into that model, How is it

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>making decisions?

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.840
<v Speaker 3>How is it performing? Is it robust?

0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 1>Meaning is it reliable in terms of if you feed

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.080
<v Speaker 1>it two of the same data set, do you get

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 1>the same answer. These are all the you know, the

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:51.040
<v Speaker 1>technical aspects of understanding the why.

0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:56.240
<v Speaker 2>How quickly do you expect all professional sports franchises to

0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.440
<v Speaker 2>adopt some kind of are they already there? If I

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 2>went out and pulled the general managers of the one

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.080
<v Speaker 2>hundred most valuable sports franchises in the world, how many

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:07.720
<v Speaker 2>of them would be using some kind of AI system

0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 2>to assist in their efforts.

0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:14.600
<v Speaker 1>One hundred and twenty percent would, meaning that everybody's doing it,

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and some think they're doing way more than they probably

0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:20.120
<v Speaker 1>actually are. So everybody's doing it. I think what's weird

0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 1>about sports is everybody's so convinced that what they're doing

0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:30.120
<v Speaker 1>is unique that they generally speaking, don't want to work

0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.520
<v Speaker 1>with a third party to do it because they're afraid

0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 1>that that would expose them. But in reality, I think

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.200
<v Speaker 1>most are doing eighty to ninety percent of the same things.

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 3>So but without a doubt, everybody's doing it. Yeah.

0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:47.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. The other I say that I loved was there

0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:51.120
<v Speaker 2>was one but a shipping line tricon on the Mississippi River.

0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:53.920
<v Speaker 2>Tell me a little bit about that project. What problem

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:54.840
<v Speaker 2>were they trying to solve?

0:14:56.920 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 1>Think about the problem that I would say every body

0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:04.080
<v Speaker 1>noticed if you go back to twenty twenty was things

0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 1>are getting hold held up in ports. It was actually

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 1>an article in the paper this morning kind of tracing

0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 1>the history of what happened twenty twenty twenty one and

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 1>why ships were basically sitting at seas for months at

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>a time. And at that stage we just we had

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:24.640
<v Speaker 1>a massive throughput issue. But moving even beyond the pandemic,

0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 1>you can see it now with ships getting through like

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 1>Panama Canal, there's like a narrow window where you can

0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 1>get through, and if you don't have your paperwork done,

0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 1>you don't have the right approvals, you're not going through

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.080
<v Speaker 1>and it may cost you a day or two and

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.000
<v Speaker 1>that's a lot of money. In the shipping industry and

0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.800
<v Speaker 1>the Tricon example, it's really just about when you're pulling

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 1>into a port, if you have the right paperwork done,

0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:56.040
<v Speaker 1>you can get goods off the ship very quickly. They

0:15:56.120 --> 0:16:00.600
<v Speaker 1>ship a lot of food, which by definition, since it's

0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:04.080
<v Speaker 1>not packaged food, it's fresh food, there is an expiration

0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:08.240
<v Speaker 1>period and so if it takes them an extra two hours,

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.800
<v Speaker 1>certainly multiple hours or a day, they have a massive

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>problem because then you're going to deal with spoilage and

0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:17.840
<v Speaker 1>so it's going to set you back. And what we've

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:21.280
<v Speaker 1>worked with them on is using an assistant that we've

0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 1>built in Watson X called orchestrate, which basically is just

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>AI doing digital labor, so we can replicate nearly any

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:35.920
<v Speaker 1>repetitive task and do that with software.

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:36.560
<v Speaker 3>Instead of humans.

0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.960
<v Speaker 1>So, as you may imagine, shipping industry still has a

0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>lot of paperwork that goes on, and so being able

0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 1>to take forms that normally would be multiple hours of

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>filling it out, Oh this isn't right, send it back.

0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 1>We've basically built that as a digital skill inside of

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:58.040
<v Speaker 1>watsonex orchestrate, and so now it's done in minutes.

0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.720
<v Speaker 2>They did Did they realize that they could have that

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.080
<v Speaker 2>kind of efficiency by teaming up with you or is

0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:08.119
<v Speaker 2>that something you came to them and said, guys, we

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:09.480
<v Speaker 2>can do this way better than you think.

0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 3>What's the.

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:15.439
<v Speaker 1>I'd say it's always, it's always both sides coming together

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 1>at a moment that for some reason makes sense because

0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:21.520
<v Speaker 1>you could say, why didn't this happen like five years ago,

0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:25.880
<v Speaker 1>like seems so obvious. Well, technology wasn't quite ready then,

0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 1>I would say, But they knew they had a need

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:32.600
<v Speaker 1>because I forget what the precise number is, but you know,

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.639
<v Speaker 1>reduction of spoilage has massive impact on their bottom line,

0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 1>and so they knew they had a need, we.

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:44.480
<v Speaker 3>Thought we could solve it, and the two together.

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:47.879
<v Speaker 2>Who did you guys go to them thought? Or did

0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:48.520
<v Speaker 2>they come to you?

0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:52.159
<v Speaker 1>I recall that this one was an inbound meaning they

0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.199
<v Speaker 1>had reached out to IBM and that we'd like to

0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:57.159
<v Speaker 1>solve this problem. I think it went into one of

0:17:57.200 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 1>our digital centers, if I if I recall so literary,

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:01.200
<v Speaker 1>I call yeah.

0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:05.480
<v Speaker 2>But the other the reverse is more interesting to me

0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.000
<v Speaker 2>because there seems to be a very very large universe

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.800
<v Speaker 2>of people who have problems that could be solved this

0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:12.240
<v Speaker 2>way and they don't realize it.

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:13.800
<v Speaker 3>What's your.

0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.320
<v Speaker 2>Is there a shining example of this of someone you

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.760
<v Speaker 2>just can't you just think could benefit so much and

0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:22.120
<v Speaker 2>isn't benefiting right now?

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:26.320
<v Speaker 3>Maybe I'll answer it slightly differently.

0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm surprised by how many people can benefit that

0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:33.080
<v Speaker 1>you wouldn't even logically think of.

0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:34.920
<v Speaker 3>First, let me give you an example.

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:43.000
<v Speaker 1>There's a franchiser of hair salons, sport Clips is the name.

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.359
<v Speaker 1>My sons used to go there for haircuts because they

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:48.719
<v Speaker 1>have like TVs and you can watch sports, so they

0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:50.959
<v Speaker 1>loved that they got entertained while they would get their haircut.

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 1>I think the last place that you would think is

0:18:53.960 --> 0:19:00.320
<v Speaker 1>using AI today would be a franchiser of hair salons. Yeah,

0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:04.280
<v Speaker 1>but just follow it through. The biggest part of how

0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.440
<v Speaker 1>they run their business is can I get people to

0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:10.600
<v Speaker 1>cut hair? And this is the high turnover industry because

0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:12.080
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of different places you can work if

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 1>you want to cut hair. People actually get injured cutting

0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 1>hair because you're on your feet all day, that type

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:21.480
<v Speaker 1>of thing. And they're using same technology orchestrate as part

0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.360
<v Speaker 1>of their recruiting process. How can they automate a lot

0:19:25.400 --> 0:19:31.240
<v Speaker 1>of people submitting resumes, who they speak to, how they qualify.

0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:31.760
<v Speaker 3>Them for the position.

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 1>And so the reason I give that example is the

0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:40.960
<v Speaker 1>opportunity for AI, which is unlike other technologies, is truly unlimited.

0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:46.159
<v Speaker 1>It will touch every single business. It's not the realm

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.000
<v Speaker 1>of the fortune five hundred or the fortune one thousand.

0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>This is the fortune any size. And I think that

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.119
<v Speaker 1>may be one thing that people underestimate about AI.

0:19:56.640 --> 0:19:59.359
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, what about I mean I was thinking about education

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:02.480
<v Speaker 2>as as a kind of I mean, education is a

0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:08.240
<v Speaker 2>perennial whipping boy for you guys that are living in

0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:11.760
<v Speaker 2>the nineteenth century, right. I'm just curious about if a

0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 2>superintendent of a public school system or the president of

0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.320
<v Speaker 2>the university sat down and had lunch with you and said,

0:20:21.000 --> 0:20:23.480
<v Speaker 2>do the university first. My cost are out of control,

0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:29.960
<v Speaker 2>my enrollment is down, my students hate me, and my

0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:31.200
<v Speaker 2>board is revolting.

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:31.639
<v Speaker 3>Help.

0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:37.640
<v Speaker 2>How would you think about helping someone in that situation.

0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:41.720
<v Speaker 3>I spend some time with universities. I like to go

0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 3>back and there's.

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:46.840
<v Speaker 1>Alma maters where I went to school, and so I

0:20:46.880 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 1>do that every year. The challenge I have hall of

0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.200
<v Speaker 1>Seming University is there has to be a will. Yeah,

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:55.840
<v Speaker 1>and I'm not sure the incentives are quite right today

0:20:57.040 --> 0:21:00.679
<v Speaker 1>because bringing in new technology, say we want to go

0:21:00.720 --> 0:21:05.080
<v Speaker 1>after we can help you figure out student recruiting or

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:10.119
<v Speaker 1>how you automate more of your education, everybody suddenly feels

0:21:10.119 --> 0:21:11.120
<v Speaker 1>threatened that university.

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 3>Hold on, that's my job.

0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:15.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm the one that decides that, or I'm the one

0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:18.760
<v Speaker 1>that wants to dictate the course. So there has to

0:21:18.760 --> 0:21:22.639
<v Speaker 1>be a will. So I think it's very possible, and

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 1>I do think over the next decade you will see

0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:28.360
<v Speaker 1>some universities that jump all over this and they will

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:30.760
<v Speaker 1>move ahead, and you see others that do not.

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:33.560
<v Speaker 3>Because it's very possible.

0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:38.119
<v Speaker 2>Where how does when you say there has to be

0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 2>a will? Is that the kind is that a kind

0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:43.280
<v Speaker 2>of thing that that people that IBM to think about,

0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.560
<v Speaker 2>Like when in this conversation you hypothetical conversation you might

0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:51.320
<v Speaker 2>have with the university president, would you give advice on

0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:55.320
<v Speaker 2>where the will comes from?

0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:57.720
<v Speaker 1>I don't do that as much in a university context.

0:21:57.720 --> 0:22:01.520
<v Speaker 1>I do that every day in a business context, because

0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:04.320
<v Speaker 1>if you can find the right person in a business

0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:08.440
<v Speaker 1>that wants to focus on growth or the bottom line

0:22:08.960 --> 0:22:11.560
<v Speaker 1>or how do you create more productivity. Yes, it's going

0:22:11.560 --> 0:22:15.679
<v Speaker 1>to create a lot of organizational resistance potentially, but you

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.840
<v Speaker 1>can find somebody that will figure out how to push

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:23.000
<v Speaker 1>that through. I think for universities, I think that's also possible.

0:22:23.280 --> 0:22:26.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure there's there's there's a return on investment for.

0:22:26.160 --> 0:22:26.679
<v Speaker 3>Us to do that.

0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:34.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, yeah, God, let's let's find some terms. AI

0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.360
<v Speaker 2>years I told you'd like to use What does that mean?

0:22:39.119 --> 0:22:41.840
<v Speaker 1>We just started using this term literally in the last

0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:47.640
<v Speaker 1>three months, and it was it was what we observed internally,

0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:51.760
<v Speaker 1>which is most technology you build, you say, all right,

0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:54.480
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen in year one, year two, year three,

0:22:54.800 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 1>and it's you know, largely by by a calendar. AI

0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:01.199
<v Speaker 1>years are the idea that what used to be a

0:23:01.280 --> 0:23:05.440
<v Speaker 1>year is now like a week. And that is how

0:23:05.480 --> 0:23:06.960
<v Speaker 1>fast the technology is moving.

0:23:07.680 --> 0:23:09.720
<v Speaker 3>And do you give you an example. We had one

0:23:09.760 --> 0:23:10.760
<v Speaker 3>client we're working with.

0:23:11.640 --> 0:23:15.080
<v Speaker 1>They're using one of our granite models, and the results

0:23:15.119 --> 0:23:17.760
<v Speaker 1>they were getting were not very good. Accuracy was not there,

0:23:17.840 --> 0:23:20.720
<v Speaker 1>their performance was not there. So I was like scratching

0:23:20.760 --> 0:23:23.679
<v Speaker 1>my head. I was like, what is going on? They

0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:27.320
<v Speaker 1>were financial services, the bank, So I'm scratching my head,

0:23:27.359 --> 0:23:29.239
<v Speaker 1>like what is going on? Everybody else is getting this

0:23:29.359 --> 0:23:33.119
<v Speaker 1>and like these results are horrible. And I said to

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:35.560
<v Speaker 1>the team, which version of the model are you using?

0:23:36.680 --> 0:23:40.240
<v Speaker 1>This was in February, Like we're using the one from October.

0:23:41.440 --> 0:23:43.399
<v Speaker 1>I was like, all right, now we know precisely the

0:23:43.440 --> 0:23:47.480
<v Speaker 1>problem because the model from October is effectively useless now

0:23:47.520 --> 0:23:48.639
<v Speaker 1>since we're here in February.

0:23:49.240 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 2>Serious, actually useless, completely useless.

0:23:53.520 --> 0:23:56.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that is how fast this is changing. And so

0:23:56.960 --> 0:24:01.160
<v Speaker 1>the minute, same use case, same day, you give them

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:05.720
<v Speaker 1>the model from late January instead of October, the results

0:24:05.760 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 1>are off the charts.

0:24:07.040 --> 0:24:07.520
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:24:07.720 --> 0:24:10.640
<v Speaker 2>Wait, so what exactly happened between October and January?

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:11.920
<v Speaker 3>The model got way better?

0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:14.199
<v Speaker 2>Could dig into that, Like, what do you mean by

0:24:14.240 --> 0:24:14.639
<v Speaker 2>the way.

0:24:14.520 --> 0:24:15.720
<v Speaker 3>We are constant.

0:24:15.760 --> 0:24:20.360
<v Speaker 1>We have built large compute infrastructure where we're doing model training.

0:24:21.000 --> 0:24:23.439
<v Speaker 1>And to be clear, model training is the realm of

0:24:23.560 --> 0:24:27.760
<v Speaker 1>probably in the world my guess is five to ten companies.

0:24:28.840 --> 0:24:29.200
<v Speaker 3>And so.

0:24:30.720 --> 0:24:33.880
<v Speaker 1>You build a model, you're constantly training it, you're doing

0:24:33.920 --> 0:24:37.440
<v Speaker 1>fine tuning, you're doing more training, you're adding data every day,

0:24:37.480 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 1>every hour it gets better. And so how does it

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 1>do that. You're feeding it more data, you're feeding it

0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:49.320
<v Speaker 1>more live examples. We're using things like synthetic data at

0:24:49.320 --> 0:24:51.520
<v Speaker 1>this point, which is we're basically creating data to do

0:24:51.560 --> 0:24:54.800
<v Speaker 1>the training as well. All of this feeds into how

0:24:54.880 --> 0:24:59.359
<v Speaker 1>useful the model is. And so using the October model,

0:24:59.400 --> 0:25:02.160
<v Speaker 1>those were the results in October, just a fact, that's

0:25:02.160 --> 0:25:05.720
<v Speaker 1>how good it was then. But back to the concept

0:25:05.720 --> 0:25:08.800
<v Speaker 1>of AI years, two weeks is a long time.

0:25:10.000 --> 0:25:12.919
<v Speaker 2>Is that Are we in a steep part of the

0:25:12.960 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 2>model learning carve or do you expect this to continue

0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:17.520
<v Speaker 2>along this at this pace?

0:25:19.119 --> 0:25:23.359
<v Speaker 3>I think that is the big question and don't have

0:25:23.400 --> 0:25:24.080
<v Speaker 3>an answer yet.

0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:26.480
<v Speaker 1>By definition, at some point you would think it would

0:25:26.520 --> 0:25:29.000
<v Speaker 1>have to slow down a bit, but it's not obvious

0:25:29.040 --> 0:25:30.919
<v Speaker 1>that that is on the horizon.

0:25:31.000 --> 0:25:34.880
<v Speaker 2>Still speeding up. Yes, how fast. Can it get.

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:40.159
<v Speaker 1>We've debated, can you actually have better results in the

0:25:40.200 --> 0:25:44.960
<v Speaker 1>afternoon than you did in the morning. Really it's nuts, Yeah,

0:25:44.960 --> 0:25:47.919
<v Speaker 1>I know, but that's why we came up with this term,

0:25:47.920 --> 0:25:50.000
<v Speaker 1>because I think you also have to think of like

0:25:50.600 --> 0:25:51.560
<v Speaker 1>concepts that.

0:25:53.680 --> 0:25:54.679
<v Speaker 3>Gets people's attention.

0:25:54.880 --> 0:25:58.040
<v Speaker 2>So you're basically turning into a bakery. You're like the

0:25:58.119 --> 0:26:00.359
<v Speaker 2>bread from yesterday. You know you can have it for

0:26:00.440 --> 0:26:04.040
<v Speaker 2>twenty five cents. But I mean you do proferential pricing.

0:26:04.080 --> 0:26:08.679
<v Speaker 2>You could say, we'll judge you x for yesterday's model,

0:26:09.119 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 2>two x for today's model.

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:16.080
<v Speaker 1>I think that's dangerous as a merchandising strategy, but I

0:26:16.080 --> 0:26:16.680
<v Speaker 1>guess your point.

0:26:17.080 --> 0:26:20.199
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but that's crazy. And this, by the way, so

0:26:20.240 --> 0:26:22.800
<v Speaker 2>this model is the same true for almost You're talking

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:26.200
<v Speaker 2>specifically about a model that was created to help some

0:26:26.280 --> 0:26:30.560
<v Speaker 2>aspect of a financial services. So is that kind of

0:26:30.680 --> 0:26:33.720
<v Speaker 2>model accelerating faster and learning faster than other models for

0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:35.200
<v Speaker 2>other kinds of problems?

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:37.680
<v Speaker 3>So this domain was code.

0:26:38.040 --> 0:26:41.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and so by definition, if you're feeling feeding in

0:26:41.880 --> 0:26:45.400
<v Speaker 1>more data some more code, you get those kind of results.

0:26:46.359 --> 0:26:49.239
<v Speaker 1>It does depend on the model type. There's a lot

0:26:49.280 --> 0:26:52.080
<v Speaker 1>of code in the world, and so we can find

0:26:52.119 --> 0:26:55.520
<v Speaker 1>that we can create it. Like I said, there's other

0:26:55.640 --> 0:26:59.879
<v Speaker 1>aspects where there's probably less inputs available, which means you

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:03.280
<v Speaker 1>probably won't get the same level of iteration. But for code,

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:04.960
<v Speaker 1>that's certainly the cycle times that we're seeing.

0:27:05.000 --> 0:27:07.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and how do you know that Let's stick with

0:27:07.640 --> 0:27:10.280
<v Speaker 2>this one example of this model you have. How do

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 2>you know that your model is better than big company

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:17.640
<v Speaker 2>B down the street? The client asks you, why would

0:27:17.640 --> 0:27:20.639
<v Speaker 2>I go with IBM as opposed to some the some

0:27:20.840 --> 0:27:22.960
<v Speaker 2>firm in the valley that says, let's they have a

0:27:22.960 --> 0:27:27.240
<v Speaker 2>model on this, what's your how do you frame your advantage?

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:31.679
<v Speaker 1>Well, we benchmark all of this, and I think the

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:36.960
<v Speaker 1>most important is metric is price performance, not price, not performance,

0:27:36.960 --> 0:27:38.200
<v Speaker 1>but the combination of the two.

0:27:38.880 --> 0:27:40.960
<v Speaker 3>And we're super competitive there.

0:27:41.040 --> 0:27:44.240
<v Speaker 1>Well for what we just released, with what we've done

0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:46.719
<v Speaker 1>in open source, we know that nobody's close to us

0:27:46.760 --> 0:27:47.760
<v Speaker 1>right now on code.

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:48.080
<v Speaker 3>Now.

0:27:48.119 --> 0:27:51.520
<v Speaker 1>To be clear, that will probably change because it's like leapfrog.

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:53.960
<v Speaker 3>People will jump ahead, then we jump back ahead.

0:27:54.560 --> 0:27:59.040
<v Speaker 1>But we're very confident that with everything we've done in

0:27:59.080 --> 0:28:01.479
<v Speaker 1>the last few months taken a huge lead forward here.

0:28:01.800 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's I mean, this goes back to the point

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.600
<v Speaker 2>I was making in the beginning. So about the difference

0:28:07.640 --> 0:28:12.320
<v Speaker 2>between your twenty something self in ninety nine and yourself today.

0:28:12.640 --> 0:28:17.080
<v Speaker 2>But this time compression has to be a crazy adjustment.

0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:20.600
<v Speaker 2>So the concept of what you're working on and how

0:28:20.640 --> 0:28:23.959
<v Speaker 2>you make decisions internally and things has to undergo this

0:28:24.040 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 2>kind of revolution. If you're switching from I mean back

0:28:27.760 --> 0:28:31.720
<v Speaker 2>in the day, a model might be useful for how long.

0:28:31.960 --> 0:28:35.720
<v Speaker 1>Years years I think about you know, statistical models that

0:28:35.800 --> 0:28:40.200
<v Speaker 1>set inside things like SPSS, which is a product that

0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of.

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:41.600
<v Speaker 3>Students use around the world.

0:28:41.640 --> 0:28:43.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, those have been the same models for twenty

0:28:43.680 --> 0:28:45.920
<v Speaker 1>years and they're still very good at what they do.

0:28:46.720 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 1>And so yes, it's a completely it's a completely different

0:28:51.480 --> 0:28:53.200
<v Speaker 1>moment for how fast this is moving.

0:28:53.680 --> 0:28:54.600
<v Speaker 3>And I think it just.

0:28:55.000 --> 0:28:59.160
<v Speaker 1>Raises the bar for everybody, whether you're a technology provider

0:28:59.240 --> 0:29:03.240
<v Speaker 1>like us, or you're a bank or an insurance company

0:29:03.600 --> 0:29:06.520
<v Speaker 1>or a shipping company, to say, how do you really

0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:11.840
<v Speaker 1>change your culture to be way more aggressive than you

0:29:11.960 --> 0:29:12.640
<v Speaker 1>normally would be?

0:29:14.680 --> 0:29:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Does this mean it's a weird question, but does this

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 2>mean a different set of kind of personality or character

0:29:21.360 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 2>traits are necessary for a decision maker in tech now

0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:26.440
<v Speaker 2>than twenty five years ago.

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:33.360
<v Speaker 1>There's a book I saw recently, it's called The Geek Way,

0:29:33.680 --> 0:29:38.480
<v Speaker 1>which talked about how technology companies have started to operate

0:29:38.520 --> 0:29:45.600
<v Speaker 1>in different ways maybe than many traditional companies, and more

0:29:45.640 --> 0:29:51.440
<v Speaker 1>about being data driven, more about delegation. Are you willing

0:29:51.480 --> 0:29:55.200
<v Speaker 1>to have the smartest person in the room make decisions

0:29:55.280 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 1>opposed to the highest paid person in the room. I

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 1>think these are all different aspects that ever company is

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:01.240
<v Speaker 1>going to face.

0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:06.480
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, next term, talk about open. When you use

0:30:06.520 --> 0:30:07.640
<v Speaker 2>that word open, what do you mean.

0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:12.920
<v Speaker 1>I think there's really only one definition of open, which

0:30:12.960 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 1>is for technology, is open source. An open source means

0:30:18.640 --> 0:30:24.520
<v Speaker 1>the code is freely available. Anybody can see it, access it,

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:26.280
<v Speaker 1>contribute to it.

0:30:26.560 --> 0:30:29.960
<v Speaker 2>And what is Tell me about why that's an important principle.

0:30:32.720 --> 0:30:35.840
<v Speaker 1>When you take a topic like AI. I think it

0:30:35.880 --> 0:30:39.680
<v Speaker 1>would be really bad for the world if this was

0:30:39.720 --> 0:30:44.280
<v Speaker 1>in the hands of one or two companies, or three

0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:47.640
<v Speaker 1>or four, doesn't matter the number, some small number. Think

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:52.240
<v Speaker 1>about like in history sometimes early nineteen hundreds, the Interstate

0:30:52.320 --> 0:30:55.959
<v Speaker 1>Commerce Commission was created, and the whole idea was to

0:30:56.080 --> 0:31:01.600
<v Speaker 1>protect farmers from railroads, meaning they wanted to allow free trade.

0:31:02.000 --> 0:31:04.400
<v Speaker 1>But they knew that well, there's only so many railroad tracks,

0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:07.720
<v Speaker 1>So we need to protect farmers from the shipping costs

0:31:07.760 --> 0:31:11.680
<v Speaker 1>that railroads could impose. So good idea, but over time

0:31:12.000 --> 0:31:15.760
<v Speaker 1>that got completely overtaken by the railroad lobby and then

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:19.640
<v Speaker 1>they use that to basically just increase prices, and it

0:31:19.680 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 1>made the lives of farmers way more difficult. I think

0:31:23.760 --> 0:31:27.200
<v Speaker 1>you could play the same analogy through with AI. If

0:31:27.240 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 1>you allow a handful of companies to have the technology,

0:31:31.640 --> 0:31:34.719
<v Speaker 1>you regulate around the principles of those one or two companies,

0:31:34.760 --> 0:31:36.240
<v Speaker 1>then you've trapped the entire world.

0:31:36.480 --> 0:31:40.600
<v Speaker 3>I think that would be very bad. So the danger

0:31:40.600 --> 0:31:42.320
<v Speaker 3>of that app for sure.

0:31:42.440 --> 0:31:45.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean there's companies in Watson in Washington every week

0:31:46.080 --> 0:31:48.680
<v Speaker 1>trying to achieve that outcome.

0:31:49.600 --> 0:31:50.080
<v Speaker 3>And so the.

0:31:50.040 --> 0:31:51.960
<v Speaker 1>Opposite of that is to say it's going to be

0:31:51.960 --> 0:31:56.840
<v Speaker 1>an open source because nobody could dispute open source because

0:31:56.840 --> 0:32:00.960
<v Speaker 1>it's right there, everybody can see it. So I'm a

0:32:00.960 --> 0:32:03.239
<v Speaker 1>strong believer that open source will win for AI. It

0:32:03.280 --> 0:32:06.120
<v Speaker 1>has to win. It's not just important for business, but

0:32:06.160 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 1>it's important for humans.

0:32:10.440 --> 0:32:13.560
<v Speaker 2>On the I'm curious about on the list of things

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:17.360
<v Speaker 2>you worry about, Actually, let me before I ask, let

0:32:17.400 --> 0:32:19.840
<v Speaker 2>me ask this question very generally, what is the list

0:32:19.880 --> 0:32:22.719
<v Speaker 2>of things you worry about. What's your top five business

0:32:22.720 --> 0:32:23.880
<v Speaker 2>related worries right now?

0:32:25.320 --> 0:32:27.680
<v Speaker 3>Tops from those are the first question. We could be

0:32:27.720 --> 0:32:28.960
<v Speaker 3>here for hours for me to answer.

0:32:30.720 --> 0:32:32.640
<v Speaker 2>I did say business related. We could leave. You know,

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:36.200
<v Speaker 2>your kids' haircuts got it out of.

0:32:36.080 --> 0:32:41.040
<v Speaker 1>The Number one is always it's the thing that's probably

0:32:41.080 --> 0:32:46.200
<v Speaker 1>always been true, which is just people. Do we have

0:32:46.240 --> 0:32:48.400
<v Speaker 1>the right skills? Are we doing a good job of

0:32:48.440 --> 0:32:51.880
<v Speaker 1>training our people? Are our people doing a good job

0:32:51.920 --> 0:32:55.880
<v Speaker 1>of working with clients like that's number one? Number two

0:32:56.000 --> 0:33:02.240
<v Speaker 1>is innovation? Are we pushing the envelope enough? Are are

0:33:02.240 --> 0:33:06.880
<v Speaker 1>we staying ahead? Number three is which kind of feeds

0:33:06.920 --> 0:33:09.640
<v Speaker 1>into the innovation one is risk taking? Are we taking

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:13.800
<v Speaker 1>enough risk? Without risk, there is no growth. And I

0:33:13.800 --> 0:33:18.680
<v Speaker 1>think the trap that every larger company inevitably falls into

0:33:18.840 --> 0:33:24.360
<v Speaker 1>is conservatism. Things are good enough, and so it's are

0:33:24.360 --> 0:33:27.800
<v Speaker 1>we pushing the envelope? Are we taking enough risk to

0:33:27.880 --> 0:33:30.000
<v Speaker 1>really have an impact? I'd say those are probably the

0:33:30.040 --> 0:33:32.600
<v Speaker 1>top three that I spend talk about.

0:33:32.600 --> 0:33:35.920
<v Speaker 2>The vast trend to define productivity paradox something I know

0:33:35.960 --> 0:33:37.920
<v Speaker 2>you've thought a lot about what does that mean?

0:33:39.360 --> 0:33:42.080
<v Speaker 1>So I started thinking hard about this because all I

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:47.920
<v Speaker 1>saw and read every day was fear about AI, and

0:33:48.960 --> 0:33:52.600
<v Speaker 1>I studied economics, and so I kind of went back

0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:56.479
<v Speaker 1>to like basic economics, and there's been like a macro

0:33:56.560 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 1>investing formula I guess I would say it's been around

0:34:00.600 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 1>forever that says growth comes from productivity growth plus population

0:34:08.760 --> 0:34:14.640
<v Speaker 1>growth plus debt growth. So if those three things are working,

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:18.479
<v Speaker 1>you'll get GDP growth. And so then you think about

0:34:18.480 --> 0:34:22.279
<v Speaker 1>that and you say, well, debt growth, we're probably not

0:34:22.320 --> 0:34:25.560
<v Speaker 1>going back to zero percent interest rates, so to some

0:34:25.600 --> 0:34:28.680
<v Speaker 1>extent there's going to be a ceiling on that. And

0:34:28.719 --> 0:34:32.920
<v Speaker 1>then you look at population growth. There are shockingly few

0:34:33.080 --> 0:34:35.840
<v Speaker 1>countries or places in the world that will see population

0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:38.600
<v Speaker 1>growth over the next thirty to fifty years. In fact,

0:34:38.640 --> 0:34:43.279
<v Speaker 1>most places are not even at replacement rates. And so

0:34:43.320 --> 0:34:45.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm like, all right, so population growth is not going

0:34:45.040 --> 0:34:45.560
<v Speaker 1>to be there.

0:34:46.880 --> 0:34:48.800
<v Speaker 3>So that would mean if you just take.

0:34:48.640 --> 0:34:53.600
<v Speaker 1>It to the extreme, the only chance of continued GDP

0:34:53.760 --> 0:35:02.600
<v Speaker 1>growth is productivity. And the best way to solve productivity

0:35:02.600 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 1>as AI.

0:35:03.840 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 3>That's why I say it's a paradox.

0:35:05.120 --> 0:35:09.600
<v Speaker 1>On one hand, everybody's scared after death it's going to

0:35:09.600 --> 0:35:12.960
<v Speaker 1>take over the world, take all of our jobs, ruin us,

0:35:14.440 --> 0:35:16.560
<v Speaker 1>But in reality, maybe it's the other way, which is

0:35:16.640 --> 0:35:18.240
<v Speaker 1>it's the only thing that can save us.

0:35:18.560 --> 0:35:20.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and if you believe.

0:35:20.600 --> 0:35:23.560
<v Speaker 1>That economic equation, which I think has proven quite true

0:35:23.600 --> 0:35:26.040
<v Speaker 1>over hundreds of years, I do think it's probably the

0:35:26.120 --> 0:35:27.480
<v Speaker 1>only thing that can save us.

0:35:28.520 --> 0:35:31.680
<v Speaker 2>Actually looked at the numbers yesterday for total random reason

0:35:31.960 --> 0:35:35.120
<v Speaker 2>on population growth in Europe and receive this is a

0:35:35.160 --> 0:35:38.280
<v Speaker 2>special bonus question. See how smart you are? Which country

0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:42.120
<v Speaker 2>in Europe continentally Europe has the highest population growth?

0:35:43.840 --> 0:35:49.400
<v Speaker 1>It's small continental Europe, probably one of the Nordics, I

0:35:49.440 --> 0:35:50.440
<v Speaker 1>would guess.

0:35:50.560 --> 0:35:57.640
<v Speaker 2>Close Luxembourg. Okay, something that's going on in Luxembourg. I

0:35:57.680 --> 0:36:00.239
<v Speaker 2>feel like, well, all of this need to investigate. There're

0:36:00.239 --> 0:36:02.080
<v Speaker 2>at one point four nine, which in the day, by

0:36:02.120 --> 0:36:06.000
<v Speaker 2>the way, would be a relatively that's the best performing country.

0:36:06.400 --> 0:36:08.839
<v Speaker 2>I mean in the day, you'd countries had routinely had

0:36:08.880 --> 0:36:12.520
<v Speaker 2>two points something, you know, percent growth in a given year.

0:36:13.840 --> 0:36:16.200
<v Speaker 2>Last question, you're writing a book. Now, we were talking

0:36:16.239 --> 0:36:20.400
<v Speaker 2>chatting about it backstage, and now I appreciate the paradox

0:36:20.440 --> 0:36:24.160
<v Speaker 2>of this book, which is universe with a model is

0:36:24.160 --> 0:36:25.960
<v Speaker 2>better in the afternoon than it is in the morning.

0:36:26.440 --> 0:36:28.760
<v Speaker 2>How do you write a book that's like printed on paper?

0:36:29.320 --> 0:36:30.640
<v Speaker 2>I expected to reuse Aul.

0:36:34.360 --> 0:36:38.280
<v Speaker 1>This is the challenge. And I am an incredible author

0:36:38.320 --> 0:36:41.439
<v Speaker 1>of useless books. I mean most of what I've spent

0:36:41.480 --> 0:36:44.760
<v Speaker 1>time on in the last decade of stuff that's completely useless,

0:36:44.840 --> 0:36:49.120
<v Speaker 1>like a year after it's written. And so when we

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:50.520
<v Speaker 1>were talking about it, I was like, I would like

0:36:50.560 --> 0:36:54.919
<v Speaker 1>to do something around AI that's timeless. Yeah, that would

0:36:54.920 --> 0:36:59.160
<v Speaker 1>be useful ten or twenty years from now. But then

0:36:59.520 --> 0:37:04.440
<v Speaker 1>to your so, how is that even remotely possible if

0:37:04.760 --> 0:37:06.800
<v Speaker 1>the model is better in the afternoon and in the morning.

0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:09.120
<v Speaker 3>So that's the challenge in front of us.

0:37:09.400 --> 0:37:12.520
<v Speaker 1>But the book is around AI value creation, so kind

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:15.360
<v Speaker 1>of links to this productivity paradox, and how do you

0:37:16.120 --> 0:37:22.640
<v Speaker 1>actually get sustained value out of AI, out of automation,

0:37:23.600 --> 0:37:27.200
<v Speaker 1>out of data science. And so the biggest challenge in

0:37:27.200 --> 0:37:29.120
<v Speaker 1>front of us is can we make this relevant?

0:37:30.360 --> 0:37:31.680
<v Speaker 3>How's the day that it's published?

0:37:31.760 --> 0:37:33.000
<v Speaker 2>How are you setting out to do that?

0:37:35.160 --> 0:37:38.120
<v Speaker 1>I think you have to to some extent level it

0:37:38.239 --> 0:37:40.840
<v Speaker 1>up to bigger concepts, which is kind of why I

0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:46.520
<v Speaker 1>go to things like macroeconomics, population geography as opposed to

0:37:46.560 --> 0:37:49.960
<v Speaker 1>going into the weeds of the technology itself. If you

0:37:50.040 --> 0:37:52.719
<v Speaker 1>write about this is how you get better performance out

0:37:52.719 --> 0:37:56.640
<v Speaker 1>of a model we can agree that will be completely

0:37:56.719 --> 0:37:59.200
<v Speaker 1>useless two years from now, but maybe even two months

0:37:59.200 --> 0:38:03.120
<v Speaker 1>from now, and so it will be less in the

0:38:03.280 --> 0:38:07.920
<v Speaker 1>technical detail and more of what is sustained value creation

0:38:08.080 --> 0:38:11.560
<v Speaker 1>for AI, which if you think on what is hopefully

0:38:11.600 --> 0:38:14.719
<v Speaker 1>a ten or twenty year period, it's probably we're kind

0:38:14.760 --> 0:38:18.200
<v Speaker 1>of substituting AI for technology. Now I've realized, because I

0:38:18.239 --> 0:38:20.880
<v Speaker 1>think this has always been true for technology. It's just

0:38:20.960 --> 0:38:24.120
<v Speaker 1>now AI is I think that everybody wants to talk about.

0:38:25.280 --> 0:38:27.560
<v Speaker 1>But let's see if we can do it. Time will tell.

0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:31.040
<v Speaker 2>Did you get any inkling that the pace that this

0:38:31.200 --> 0:38:34.879
<v Speaker 2>AI year's phenomenon was gonna that things with the pace

0:38:34.920 --> 0:38:37.440
<v Speaker 2>of change was going to accelerate so much? Because you

0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:40.239
<v Speaker 2>had More's law, right, You had a model in the

0:38:40.239 --> 0:38:45.560
<v Speaker 2>technology world for this kind of exponential increase in so

0:38:45.640 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 2>we you were you thinking about that kind of accelerate

0:38:50.280 --> 0:38:52.560
<v Speaker 2>similar kind of acceleration in the.

0:38:55.120 --> 0:38:57.680
<v Speaker 1>I think anybody that said they expected what we're seeing

0:38:57.719 --> 0:39:03.439
<v Speaker 1>today is probably exactly. I think it's way faster than

0:39:03.560 --> 0:39:08.880
<v Speaker 1>anybody expected. Yeah, but technologies, back to your point at

0:39:08.880 --> 0:39:13.000
<v Speaker 1>More's law has always accelerated through the years, so I

0:39:13.000 --> 0:39:16.280
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't say it's a shock, but it is surprising.

0:39:16.880 --> 0:39:22.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you've had a kind of extraordinary privileged position to

0:39:22.640 --> 0:39:25.319
<v Speaker 2>watch and participate in this revolution, right, I mean, how

0:39:25.360 --> 0:39:29.920
<v Speaker 2>many other people have been in that have ridden this

0:39:30.360 --> 0:39:31.120
<v Speaker 2>wave like you have?

0:39:32.480 --> 0:39:35.640
<v Speaker 1>I do wonder is this really that much different or

0:39:35.680 --> 0:39:37.439
<v Speaker 1>does it feel different just because we're here?

0:39:38.480 --> 0:39:40.120
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I do think on one level.

0:39:40.200 --> 0:39:43.640
<v Speaker 1>Yes, So in the time I've been an IBM, Internet happened,

0:39:45.200 --> 0:39:51.400
<v Speaker 1>Mobile happened, social network happened, blockchain happened.

0:39:51.960 --> 0:39:53.360
<v Speaker 3>AI, So a lot has happened.

0:39:53.680 --> 0:39:55.040
<v Speaker 1>But then you go back and say, well, but if

0:39:55.080 --> 0:40:00.719
<v Speaker 1>I'd been here between nineteen seventy and ninety five, there

0:40:00.719 --> 0:40:03.600
<v Speaker 1>were a lot of things that are pretty fundamental then too, say,

0:40:03.600 --> 0:40:06.920
<v Speaker 1>I wondered, almost do we always exaggerate the.

0:40:06.840 --> 0:40:13.359
<v Speaker 3>Timeframe that we're in. I don't know. Yeah, but it's

0:40:13.360 --> 0:40:14.080
<v Speaker 3>a good idea though.

0:40:16.000 --> 0:40:19.040
<v Speaker 2>I think the ending with the phrase, I don't know

0:40:19.760 --> 0:40:23.520
<v Speaker 2>it's a good idea though. Comd great way to wrap

0:40:23.560 --> 0:40:23.920
<v Speaker 2>this up.

0:40:24.320 --> 0:40:25.680
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much, Thank you, Malcolm.

0:40:29.719 --> 0:40:32.920
<v Speaker 2>In a field that is evolving as quickly as artificial intelligence,

0:40:33.280 --> 0:40:36.120
<v Speaker 2>it was inspiring to see how adaptable Rob has been

0:40:36.200 --> 0:40:39.959
<v Speaker 2>over his career. The takeaways from my conversation with Rob

0:40:40.239 --> 0:40:44.120
<v Speaker 2>had been echoing in my head ever since. He emphasized

0:40:44.239 --> 0:40:47.920
<v Speaker 2>how open source models allow AI technology to be developed

0:40:47.920 --> 0:40:53.359
<v Speaker 2>by many players. Openness also allows for transparency. Rob told

0:40:53.400 --> 0:40:58.360
<v Speaker 2>me about AI use cases like IBM's collaboration with Sevilla's

0:40:58.360 --> 0:41:02.040
<v Speaker 2>football club. That exam really brought home for me how

0:41:02.120 --> 0:41:07.320
<v Speaker 2>AI technology will touch every industry. Despite the potential benefits

0:41:07.320 --> 0:41:12.280
<v Speaker 2>of AI, challenges exist in its widespread adoption. Rob discussed

0:41:12.480 --> 0:41:17.520
<v Speaker 2>how resistance to change, concerns about job security and organizational

0:41:17.560 --> 0:41:23.439
<v Speaker 2>inertia can slow down implementation of AI solutions. The paradox, though,

0:41:23.480 --> 0:41:26.040
<v Speaker 2>according to Rob, is that rather than being afraid of

0:41:26.040 --> 0:41:29.640
<v Speaker 2>a world with AI, people should actually be more afraid

0:41:29.719 --> 0:41:33.440
<v Speaker 2>of a world without it. AI, he believes, has the

0:41:33.480 --> 0:41:36.400
<v Speaker 2>potential to make the world a better place in a

0:41:36.400 --> 0:41:40.879
<v Speaker 2>way that no other technology can. Rob painted an optimistic

0:41:40.960 --> 0:41:44.480
<v Speaker 2>version of the future, one in which AI technology will

0:41:44.520 --> 0:41:48.799
<v Speaker 2>continue to improve at an exponential rate. This will free

0:41:48.880 --> 0:41:52.960
<v Speaker 2>up workers to dedicate their energy to more creative tasks.

0:41:53.560 --> 0:41:58.080
<v Speaker 2>I for one am on board Smart Talks with IBM

0:41:58.200 --> 0:42:02.320
<v Speaker 2>is produced by Matt Romano, Joey Fishground, and Jacob Goldstein.

0:42:02.760 --> 0:42:06.479
<v Speaker 2>We're edited by Lydia gene kott Our engineers are Sarah

0:42:06.560 --> 0:42:11.680
<v Speaker 2>Bruguer and Ben Tolliday. Theme song by Gramscow. Special thanks

0:42:11.680 --> 0:42:14.200
<v Speaker 2>to the eight Bar and IBM teams, as well as

0:42:14.200 --> 0:42:17.759
<v Speaker 2>the Pushkin marketing team. Smart Talks with IBM is a

0:42:17.800 --> 0:42:22.560
<v Speaker 2>production of Pushkin Industries and Ruby Studio at iHeartMedia. To

0:42:22.600 --> 0:42:28.240
<v Speaker 2>find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,

0:42:28.360 --> 0:42:33.080
<v Speaker 2>or wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Malcolm Gladwell. This

0:42:33.239 --> 0:42:36.840
<v Speaker 2>is a paid advertisement from IBM. The conversations on this

0:42:36.960 --> 0:42:49.680
<v Speaker 2>podcast don't necessarily represent IBM's positions, strategies, or opinions.