Speaker 1: The Armstrong and Getty Show. Sir, if you were to
Speaker 1: win the election, would you be willing to commit to
Speaker 1: not point a president forward in giving Donald Trump a
Speaker 1: pardon under the pretense of healing the nation? In other words,
Speaker 1: are you willing to commit to the American ideal that
Speaker 1: no one is above the law? Absolutely, yes, I'd commit.
Speaker 1: So that's Joe Biden from his town hall last night,
Speaker 1: and I thought that was amazing. So most of the
Speaker 1: media I'm taking in is fairly obsessed and should be
Speaker 1: this week about what did Biden know and when did
Speaker 1: he know it? With what Trump is calling Obama Gate
Speaker 1: and do we have a constitutional crisis here? In some
Speaker 1: Jonathan truly called it the story of the century went
Speaker 1: on with the the media and uh, you know, spying
Speaker 1: on political opponents and that sort of stuff. But for
Speaker 1: the other half of the country, the question is the
Speaker 1: crimes of Donald Trump and will you pardon him? That's
Speaker 1: what I'm worried about if you're elected president. Completely different
Speaker 1: worlds we're living in. For the narrative, let's discuss with
Speaker 1: Lana he Chen, David and Diane Stephy, research fellow at
Speaker 1: the Hoover Institution, Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford University.
Speaker 1: Lana he how are you, sir, I'm fine, good morning.
Speaker 1: So we're curious your take on the utterly divided perceptions
Speaker 1: of the various groups of Americans and how do you
Speaker 1: campaign in a country like that, and specifically, how do
Speaker 1: you win over the persuadables while not freaking out your
Speaker 1: base if your base, on the other base believe completely
Speaker 1: different realities. Well, this is a really really important issue
Speaker 1: you guys are covering, but the polarization of our society, everything,
Speaker 1: every issue is viewed through a political lens. But I
Speaker 1: don't care what it is, whether it's you know, reopening
Speaker 1: the economy because of coronavirus, the issue of unmasking, which
Speaker 1: is the whole controversy that you guys have been referencing around, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, revealing the identities of those who asked about
Speaker 1: A Flynn's identity or or or even you know, how
Speaker 1: we view the stimulus bill that Congress is considering, whether
Speaker 1: they should do it, whether it's just a big progressive
Speaker 1: grab bag. I mean, all of these things are viewed
Speaker 1: through a partisan lens, and it's tough in a campaign setting,
Speaker 1: you know what, I think most of the candidates I've
Speaker 1: talked to this cycle have decided on and this is
Speaker 1: not going to be encouraging. They have basically decided. They
Speaker 1: have basically decided they're going to go to their base,
Speaker 1: and they're going to animate their base and make sure
Speaker 1: their base shows up and you know, hope that they
Speaker 1: collect just enough sort of independent minded people to get
Speaker 1: them over the finish line. But they have decided, and
Speaker 1: there are there are countless examples of this guy's whether
Speaker 1: it's in contested Senate races around the country, congressional races.
Speaker 1: They have decided they are going to do their best
Speaker 1: to get enthusiasm up amongst those who are most likely
Speaker 1: to support them and hope that that's enough, because it
Speaker 1: is just to divide it. There is no nuance. You
Speaker 1: can't walk the middle line. You're better off just going
Speaker 1: to your base. And it's discouraging, but I think that's
Speaker 1: where a lot of people are. Hey, I want to
Speaker 1: stay big picture for a little while. But first, there
Speaker 1: was a fellow or one buck back a Republican congressional
Speaker 1: seat in California for the first time since Poncho Villa
Speaker 1: was coming over the border. How did how did that happen? Um,
Speaker 1: it's a combination of a lot of different things. First
Speaker 1: of all, I think it demonstrates the value of having
Speaker 1: a candidate who who at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: is an effective candidate because of how they match up
Speaker 1: with the demographics of a district, their ability to articulate
Speaker 1: just a very very simple message. And in Mike Garcia's case,
Speaker 1: who's the guy who won done in California twenty five
Speaker 1: Senior Valley that sort of area. It was a combination
Speaker 1: of a good candidate with a lot of anger at
Speaker 1: the previous member of Congress who held that seat. I'm
Speaker 1: sure you guys have covered the Katie Hill debacle. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was the naked don't sit my hotel furniture. Naked
Speaker 1: was my main takeaway from that. Just or just or
Speaker 1: just don't don't don't appear naked while being a member
Speaker 1: of Congress. I mean probably good idea, generally good good rule.
Speaker 1: So so combination of good candidate plus you know, kind
Speaker 1: of disastrous situation with the previous officeholder, and and and
Speaker 1: you know, I think Garcia did a good job quite
Speaker 1: frankly to to the points discussion we were just having
Speaker 1: of motivating the people in that district. Who in particular
Speaker 1: felt that they either supported Trump or thought Trump was
Speaker 1: getting a bad rap. And I think that there were
Speaker 1: just enough of those people in a special election context
Speaker 1: to to to get him across the finish line. Wow. Interesting.
Speaker 1: I know that you've been involved in a bit of
Speaker 1: a national discussion about opening up a particular around school,
Speaker 1: but you know, were you mentioned the whole partisanship around
Speaker 1: every issue. There's a doctor writing in the New York
Speaker 1: Times today, an op ed piece from JOHNS Hopkins saying,
Speaker 1: you know, I argued for closing down for a long
Speaker 1: time now, and now I believe we've gone too far,
Speaker 1: too long, the economy suffering, blah blah blah, and then
Speaker 1: has to put a couple of paragraphs in the story
Speaker 1: to make it clear that I realized that some of
Speaker 1: you are sensitive to the political issues on this, as in, uh,
Speaker 1: you're Trump, then you won't open the economy. You must
Speaker 1: be a Trump supporter. And so immediately it's got to
Speaker 1: be dismissed by the New York Times crowd. They had to,
Speaker 1: they had to point that out. It makes it difficult
Speaker 1: to have any conversation, it does. I mean, let me
Speaker 1: give you, guys an example of this. So a couple
Speaker 1: of days ago, I put out a series of tweets
Speaker 1: that basically said, look, I think I think we do
Speaker 1: need to really encourage the public, the public and private
Speaker 1: K through twelfth schools to try to reopen this fall,
Speaker 1: but not just reopen willy nilly. We've got to have
Speaker 1: them think about, you know, issues like how do you
Speaker 1: take care of faculty who might be in that sensitive
Speaker 1: age category where they could suffer more, or kids who
Speaker 1: have prexisting conditions. Let's let's open up the schools, but
Speaker 1: do it intelligently. Um. I can't tell you how much
Speaker 1: hatred I got from the right and the left, the
Speaker 1: right saying you idiot, just open the school, just open
Speaker 1: them up. Kids will be fine, you know, kids will
Speaker 1: kids will do it, They'll be fine. And from the
Speaker 1: left saying, you're a crazy Trump supporter. Why do you
Speaker 1: why why do you want to kill people? And I
Speaker 1: just don't. I don't know what to make of it anymore.
Speaker 1: Because people have gone they've gone mad, they have an
Speaker 1: inability to understand that sometimes there can be a middle,
Speaker 1: independent road that you're gonna watch. And I think most
Speaker 1: people at their core want a reasonable solution. But we've
Speaker 1: become so animated by the far right and the far
Speaker 1: left that this is where we are in our society now.
Speaker 1: It's really kind of sad. Boy, You a guy who
Speaker 1: studies this sort of thing your whole life, saying I
Speaker 1: don't know what to make of it anymore and sounding
Speaker 1: despondent is troubling to me. Well, Lani, you've probably here
Speaker 1: to say in the past. Will make a statement or
Speaker 1: have a conversation on the show, and we'll get half
Speaker 1: a dozen emails sing I'm never gonna listen to you again.
Speaker 1: You're two pro Trump, simultaneously receiving six emails saying I'll
Speaker 1: never listen to you again. You're too anti Trump. I mean,
Speaker 1: based on the same statements and and so. Yeah, it's crazy,
Speaker 1: But guess what, I bet they're all still listening. Well,
Speaker 1: And how could he not a loan he changed with
Speaker 1: the Hoover Institution and Stanford University. I wish well Trump.
Speaker 1: I guess Trump to some extent things that benefits him
Speaker 1: anytime he's being talked about. But I wish he'd stay
Speaker 1: out of some issues. Um, I wish he'd stay out
Speaker 1: of this Obama Gate thing. I think if he'd stay
Speaker 1: out of it. There's a better chance The New York Times,
Speaker 1: you know, George Stephanopolis, whatever, digs into it as soon
Speaker 1: as Trump gets involved in it. So I don't want
Speaker 1: to be in Trump side thing. Yeah, well, I think
Speaker 1: you know, first of all, he's got his gut instinct
Speaker 1: and they're just things he can't resist. This is going
Speaker 1: to be one of those things he wouldn't be able
Speaker 1: to write and then dive right into the middle of it.
Speaker 1: And you know, here's the thing. At the end of
Speaker 1: the day, I've been looking some more at that data
Speaker 1: about kind of what people think about Trump in the
Speaker 1: election this year. I'm actually not sure if it's going
Speaker 1: to matter a whole lot at the end of the
Speaker 1: day whether he gets re elected or not. In terms
Speaker 1: of this issue, I really do think that it's going
Speaker 1: to be a very simple calculus for most people, and
Speaker 1: it's going to have to do with the economy. And
Speaker 1: when it comes down to it, it's not about how
Speaker 1: how objectively good the economy is, because I don't think
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate is going to be at a great
Speaker 1: point by the time we get to the election. It's
Speaker 1: going to be about the trend if if Trump can
Speaker 1: show some improvement about the economy, and he is able
Speaker 1: to trump at that improvement. My sense is he's got
Speaker 1: a pretty good shot at being successful, notwithstanding all of
Speaker 1: the dialogue about how he's handled the coronavirus response. And
Speaker 1: I think people will disagree on that, but I really
Speaker 1: do think for most voters in the sort of swing
Speaker 1: states who are thinking about this election carefully, it's going
Speaker 1: to come down to the economy. So all this other
Speaker 1: stuff is noise. Well, if the economy is not trending up,
Speaker 1: you know, compared to the current situation, God help us all,
Speaker 1: we're going to be in seriously dire straits. Lana Chan
Speaker 1: of the Uber Institution and Stanford University Lani on our
Speaker 1: personal note, maya to to your old college student daughter
Speaker 1: has become just utterly enthusiastic about electoral data analysis, And
Speaker 1: I don't know, Yeah, maybe I can, if I can
Speaker 1: give her your email address or something, maybe you could
Speaker 1: recommend a book or something like that. And she's a
Speaker 1: great admirer. There's a there's a great amount of job
Speaker 1: security for people who are interested in electoral data these days. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I can't. She's surely not my child, but I'm proud
Speaker 1: of her anyway, and I claim her. Lannie, great to
Speaker 1: talk to you, and let's do it again soon. Thank you, Yeah,
Speaker 1: Lannie in a Twitter war over saying let's find a
Speaker 1: middle ground and get colleges open again. I mean, is
Speaker 1: there a position you can take on any issue, any
Speaker 1: position on any issue, that will not get you hatred.
Speaker 1: There's just there's just a gut lever level feeling that
Speaker 1: so many people have now of sizing up a story,
Speaker 1: a pundit, a person you run into, or whatever, which
Speaker 1: side you on. There's only two sides, which are you on?
Speaker 1: And you listen for a you and then you make
Speaker 1: a determination, Oh they're on that side, right, That's that's
Speaker 1: the end of it, exactly. I try to avoid that
Speaker 1: sort of thinking, but I understand it. You know, in
Speaker 1: nineteen forty four, for instance, there were not a lot
Speaker 1: of people running around saying, you know, Japan has been
Speaker 1: the source of some beautiful modern music, you know, or
Speaker 1: there are a lot of great German writers who you
Speaker 1: really ought to read. And by the same token, I
Speaker 1: used to have a next door neighbor who I despised.
Speaker 1: He was a bastard. I mean, he was a rotten
Speaker 1: human being on every level, and if we'd had some
Speaker 1: sort of neighborhood controversy over should we I don't know,
Speaker 1: what do you want to do hire a street sweeper
Speaker 1: to keep distrectly? And he came out in favor of it.
Speaker 1: My natural inclination would be looked for reasons why that
Speaker 1: was a stupid Why stuff everyone's money. It's just it's
Speaker 1: the way we are as human beings. But if there's
Speaker 1: anything at stake in terms of unity, I mean if, if, if,
Speaker 1: if there's enough at stake, the unity matters. For instance,
Speaker 1: the next cul de sac over was regular rating our
Speaker 1: cul de sac, beating up our children and and attempting
Speaker 1: to steal our stuff. Well, then he and I have
Speaker 1: to put aside are dislike and we at least have
Speaker 1: to figure out a way to talk to each other. Well,
Speaker 1: the United States have some has some evil, evil sons
Speaker 1: of bitches, pardon me, living on the next cul de sac,
Speaker 1: whether it's North Korea or China most notably, or Russia
Speaker 1: or Iran, and we've got to be able to talk
Speaker 1: to each other. That's true. If you hate your boss
Speaker 1: and they come up with an idea that's a good idea,
Speaker 1: you have to fight your instinct to accept the fact
Speaker 1: that it's a good idea. So I'm asking you, friends,
Speaker 1: look deep within your hearts, or those of you are shallow,
Speaker 1: look shallowly within your hearts, see if you can find
Speaker 1: some truth.