WEBVTT - The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies. 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:32.964 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, the show about making 0:00:33.004 --> 0:00:35.444 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:00:35.124 --> 0:00:38.684 And back in New York City, New York, not Las Vegas. 0:00:39.204 --> 0:00:41.644 I'm Nate Silver. What are we talking about, Maria? 0:00:42.204 --> 0:00:43.884 So first we're going to do a little bit of 0:00:43.884 --> 0:00:46.684 a poker update. As you guys known, it wasn't here 0:00:47.084 --> 0:00:49.844 last week, so you had him in absentsha a pre 0:00:49.884 --> 0:00:51.804 taped interview because he had a deep run in the 0:00:51.844 --> 0:00:55.284 main I've had a few runs as well, and there's 0:00:55.404 --> 0:00:57.084 lots of news from the World Series. So we're going 0:00:57.164 --> 0:00:59.004 to start with a poker update. Then we're going to 0:00:59.084 --> 0:01:02.484 get a little bit more serious and talk about some 0:01:03.044 --> 0:01:04.564 conspiracy theories in the air. 0:01:10.444 --> 0:01:12.684 Maria, is the World Series Poker still going on? It 0:01:12.804 --> 0:01:15.364 is like today the last official day where you can 0:01:15.524 --> 0:01:16.884 enter a new event. Is that right? 0:01:17.444 --> 0:01:20.404 No, there are two more days night, so we're recording 0:01:20.404 --> 0:01:26.204 this on Tuesday, July fifteenth. There are multiple bracelet events, 0:01:26.244 --> 0:01:29.164 and then tomorrow there's also a turbo. You know that 0:01:29.244 --> 0:01:34.004 we love turbos. They're a nice, nice little ways to 0:01:34.044 --> 0:01:36.724 try to get a fast bracelet. At the end of 0:01:36.764 --> 0:01:39.484 the series, so a few more days left, I have 0:01:39.604 --> 0:01:42.084 been not at the World Series, but at the WPT 0:01:42.364 --> 0:01:45.724 event at the Venetian. Had a nice deep run there 0:01:45.764 --> 0:01:48.884 and actually busted in fifty third place last hand of 0:01:48.924 --> 0:01:52.324 the night yesterday. So we were you know, anyone who 0:01:52.324 --> 0:01:53.884 plays poker, you know, at the end of the night 0:01:53.964 --> 0:01:56.524 they pause the clock and they say four more hands, 0:01:56.524 --> 0:01:58.844 five more hands. Well I wish they had said four 0:01:58.884 --> 0:02:02.204 more hands, because on hand number five I was dealt 0:02:02.484 --> 0:02:07.204 pocket jacks with eighteen big lines on the button, and 0:02:07.924 --> 0:02:10.404 the small blind who was an incredibly of European player 0:02:10.404 --> 0:02:13.084 who'd been three betting me all day, three bet me 0:02:13.364 --> 0:02:15.564 and we went with the jacks. In that time he 0:02:15.644 --> 0:02:18.924 happened to have pocket kings and that was the end. 0:02:19.244 --> 0:02:21.964 What kind of euro Romanian? I try to get the 0:02:22.004 --> 0:02:25.204 Euros to talk more like the Romanians the Eastern Europeans 0:02:25.244 --> 0:02:29.164 are like, but like someone like the Germans or the Dutch, 0:02:29.324 --> 0:02:31.244 or like a little more serious than they need to be. 0:02:31.284 --> 0:02:33.244 I try to break them out of their shells, you 0:02:33.244 --> 0:02:34.324 know what, Maria. 0:02:34.164 --> 0:02:37.124 Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, that's a great strategy. This Romania was 0:02:37.244 --> 0:02:40.324 very sweet, very nice, very talkative, and took all my chips. 0:02:41.324 --> 0:02:44.684 I busted the last time of the night, in my 0:02:44.804 --> 0:02:47.844 last World Series event, what was a three K midstake something, 0:02:48.204 --> 0:02:50.804 although it was someone like like, I don't think that 0:02:50.924 --> 0:02:55.204 poker players should intentionally make a goal of like, oh 0:02:55.244 --> 0:02:58.204 I made it to X day, Like, if anything, it 0:02:58.244 --> 0:03:00.884 reduces your flexibility. In my case, it was to kind 0:03:00.884 --> 0:03:03.764 of settle my business and get out of town. But 0:03:03.804 --> 0:03:05.564 it might not be playing another tournament or taking an 0:03:05.564 --> 0:03:07.764 off day or things like that, and so like it's 0:03:07.764 --> 0:03:10.964 an arbitrary cutoff busting out on the last it looked 0:03:10.964 --> 0:03:14.924 like but I I, you know, last hand before dinner, break, 0:03:15.644 --> 0:03:17.764 last hand, last orbit at the end of the day. 0:03:18.644 --> 0:03:20.644 Can sometimes we get opportunity to pick to pick up 0:03:20.684 --> 0:03:25.684 chipsyp a little bit tired, right, yep, conflict diverse and yeah, no, no. 0:03:25.604 --> 0:03:28.764 Shame, Maria, No, no, no shame at all. You know. 0:03:28.844 --> 0:03:31.324 I actually I have a story about this because psychologically 0:03:31.364 --> 0:03:34.284 it's actually a really interesting thing because I think that 0:03:34.364 --> 0:03:36.524 this is this is something that carries over, you know, 0:03:36.564 --> 0:03:38.844 from the poker world to the real world, where people 0:03:38.924 --> 0:03:41.244 just want to like they want to last, right, like 0:03:41.284 --> 0:03:44.364 they don't want to they don't want to bust in quotes. 0:03:44.764 --> 0:03:47.764 And I back when I was just learning poker and 0:03:47.764 --> 0:03:51.004 I was still really working closely with Eric Sidell, and 0:03:51.044 --> 0:03:53.564 he was giving me a lot of coaching. I remember 0:03:53.724 --> 0:03:55.724 it was a big event. It was late in the night, 0:03:56.044 --> 0:03:58.324 you know, we had a few hands left and I 0:03:58.364 --> 0:04:01.924 remember folding preflop I think pocket sevens something like that 0:04:02.004 --> 0:04:04.844 because I just didn't want to deal with it. I 0:04:04.884 --> 0:04:06.684 didn't want to and there were like a few hands 0:04:06.724 --> 0:04:08.204 left in the night, and I told him this. I 0:04:08.244 --> 0:04:10.004 was like, you know, I was just tired, and he 0:04:10.124 --> 0:04:13.084 just he didn't say anything. And then later he came 0:04:13.164 --> 0:04:14.924 up to me and he's like, we need to talk 0:04:14.964 --> 0:04:17.204 about that. He's like, do you see you know Jason 0:04:17.284 --> 0:04:19.564 Kuhn or I Caxton, you know, some of the best 0:04:19.604 --> 0:04:21.884 players in the world folding pocket sevens in that spot. 0:04:22.084 --> 0:04:23.524 And I was like, no, I guess not. He's like, 0:04:23.564 --> 0:04:27.044 you can't do that right, like you're leaving ev And yes, 0:04:27.124 --> 0:04:29.324 I understand that you're tired and you don't want to bust, 0:04:29.324 --> 0:04:31.724 but these are bad reasons and you need to play 0:04:31.844 --> 0:04:33.364 like you are there to play, and you're there to 0:04:33.364 --> 0:04:36.204 play your best game, and you have to take those spots, 0:04:36.564 --> 0:04:38.484 and you have to take advantage of people who aren't 0:04:38.564 --> 0:04:41.124 willing to take those spots. Those are the people who win. 0:04:41.484 --> 0:04:44.884 And you know, I think that really that conversation really 0:04:44.884 --> 0:04:48.924 stayed with me because it's such important life advice, right, like, 0:04:49.044 --> 0:04:52.164 don't don't fold when you're just like feeling a little 0:04:52.244 --> 0:04:54.924 risk averse if it's not for the right reasons. The 0:04:54.964 --> 0:04:57.404 why has to be correct, and the why can't be 0:04:58.004 --> 0:05:00.964 I don't want to bust, right, that's that's not that's 0:05:01.044 --> 0:05:02.044 not a good reason. 0:05:02.364 --> 0:05:06.844 Yeah, And also knowing when the marginal spots are and 0:05:06.924 --> 0:05:09.164 what's less marginal, right, Like, it's fine to fold the 0:05:09.244 --> 0:05:12.484 very marginal stuff, but like you have this exponential thing 0:05:12.604 --> 0:05:16.244 where hands quickly escalating value, and in most positions, folding 0:05:16.284 --> 0:05:20.484 sevens from some reasonable position is a substantially positive expected 0:05:20.564 --> 0:05:23.284 value play. Even if you even if you like lost 0:05:23.404 --> 0:05:26.244 twenty IQ points the men you put chips in the hand, right, 0:05:26.844 --> 0:05:28.644 you know, you're probably still gonna make enough money by 0:05:28.644 --> 0:05:31.444 flopping sets and continuing carefully when the board's dry and 0:05:31.484 --> 0:05:33.524 things like that. Right, And like you do have to 0:05:33.524 --> 0:05:35.204 pay yourself a little bit. The World series as long 0:05:35.244 --> 0:05:36.764 of it, how would you how would you rate your 0:05:36.804 --> 0:05:37.964 overall World Series? 0:05:39.044 --> 0:05:42.124 Well, we're not done yet. We're not done yet. Okay, 0:05:42.164 --> 0:05:44.484 I still have I still have a few events to go. 0:05:44.844 --> 0:05:51.444 I'd give myself, uh a B minus maybe in yeah, 0:05:51.484 --> 0:05:53.964 in this world series, but we'll see, we'll see. 0:05:54.004 --> 0:05:54.364 Maybe. 0:05:54.404 --> 0:05:56.284 You know, I bink a bracelet in the last two 0:05:56.364 --> 0:05:58.844 days and I'm like, just kidding. No, Actually, I wouldn't 0:05:58.884 --> 0:06:02.204 change my rating because you know, the the B minus 0:06:02.244 --> 0:06:05.884 isn't for results only, it's for kind of overall play, 0:06:05.964 --> 0:06:08.444 et cetera. And I definitely, you know, I think I've 0:06:08.444 --> 0:06:10.084 played well in some of it. I think I made 0:06:10.084 --> 0:06:12.684 some mistakes in some events, like there's you know, there's 0:06:12.724 --> 0:06:14.444 a lot going on, there's a lot to learn, and 0:06:14.484 --> 0:06:18.524 there's always room to improve. So I think that that's 0:06:18.604 --> 0:06:21.684 a reasonable reasonable grade for myself. 0:06:21.804 --> 0:06:24.004 How about you, Nate, I'll give myself a B plus 0:06:24.084 --> 0:06:26.124 as far as how I played. So, I think I've 0:06:26.124 --> 0:06:30.044 become like pretty adept to exploitive things. Picking up on 0:06:30.164 --> 0:06:34.084 vibes tells just general exploited to play to beat those players. 0:06:34.124 --> 0:06:38.484 I focus less on hanging around with elite players, and 0:06:38.484 --> 0:06:40.564 I think those spots were more tricky. I'm kind of 0:06:40.564 --> 0:06:42.884 in this like weird spot mixed games are I think 0:06:42.924 --> 0:06:46.204 it's not Texas no limit hold them basically right, and 0:06:46.284 --> 0:06:48.804 like for the first time in some period I put 0:06:48.804 --> 0:06:51.524 more study into those mixed games. It also bricked all 0:06:51.524 --> 0:06:54.644 my events where you often face like much tougher field. 0:06:54.764 --> 0:06:58.244 So it's probably the World Series that like was very 0:06:58.324 --> 0:07:02.324 much at the median of like what you could reasonably expect, right, 0:07:03.044 --> 0:07:04.684 And the thing is, like, so I wound up. I 0:07:04.684 --> 0:07:06.084 think when I tell it up, I'm going to have 0:07:06.164 --> 0:07:10.084 lost a little bit of money despite cashing the main 0:07:10.084 --> 0:07:11.444 event and when they've have been after that for like 0:07:11.444 --> 0:07:14.404 a combined sixty two thousand or whatever, Right, but fifty 0:07:14.524 --> 0:07:18.164 thousand offsets a lot of ten K buy ins. I 0:07:18.164 --> 0:07:20.404 bought in twice to this win ten k and to 0:07:20.644 --> 0:07:25.204 various mixed games ten k's right, And then so yeah, 0:07:25.404 --> 0:07:27.644 even then you're like, I think a little bit down 0:07:27.684 --> 0:07:29.124 for the tournament. Like I said, I'll do the math, 0:07:29.204 --> 0:07:30.844 but like, but that's kind of like I think you 0:07:30.884 --> 0:07:35.884 are allowed to look at signs of successful play that 0:07:36.044 --> 0:07:41.444 like aren't necessarily just how much you increase your hand 0:07:41.444 --> 0:07:45.524 in mob Hendon is the encyclopedia of everybody's poker results, right, Like, 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:48.164 you know, if you're in the mix, as I call it, right, 0:07:48.444 --> 0:07:50.804 you're building a big stacks early, You're lasting a long time. 0:07:50.884 --> 0:07:52.884 You're part of the story of the tournament. You're attracting 0:07:52.924 --> 0:07:55.884 some maybe media attention from your friends. You have some 0:07:55.964 --> 0:07:57.684 fun hands that you can play and talk about later. 0:07:57.844 --> 0:08:02.244 Like if you're in the mix constantly, then that feels 0:08:02.284 --> 0:08:04.524 to me like airing towards the side of a more 0:08:04.564 --> 0:08:08.004 successful World Series, even if you do run Jackson King 0:08:08.164 --> 0:08:11.004 sometimes or lose, flips, bad meats, et cetera sometimes. 0:08:11.444 --> 0:08:13.644 Yep. I think I think that that is all correct. 0:08:13.684 --> 0:08:16.084 I'm also down for the series, not nearly as down 0:08:16.604 --> 0:08:19.164 as I was last year. As you know, last year 0:08:19.204 --> 0:08:21.084 I was down. I was six figures. That is not 0:08:21.164 --> 0:08:24.044 true now. And like I said, a few events left 0:08:24.284 --> 0:08:27.884 and as everyone knows and every winning player knows, like 0:08:28.004 --> 0:08:30.604 it is all the big scores, right, like that's what matters. 0:08:30.844 --> 0:08:33.724 That's that's what actually will make the difference. So we'll 0:08:33.724 --> 0:08:36.764 see and we can check back in next week. But 0:08:36.964 --> 0:08:38.804 I just want to give a big shout out. By 0:08:38.804 --> 0:08:40.964 the time you guys hear this, there will be a winner. 0:08:41.164 --> 0:08:43.884 But we have the first woman in over thirty years 0:08:44.724 --> 0:08:47.324 at the final table of the World Series main event, 0:08:47.564 --> 0:08:51.644 Leo maud Gets from Spain. She's lovely. I've known her 0:08:51.684 --> 0:08:54.324 for a number of years and she's very easy to 0:08:54.404 --> 0:08:57.004 root for and a great player. And I just want 0:08:57.044 --> 0:08:59.524 to give a shout out to a pretty historic moment 0:08:59.604 --> 0:09:02.364 for the World Series. I think I think that that's 0:09:02.644 --> 0:09:06.004 really great, and it's just it's a crazy final table, right, 0:09:06.124 --> 0:09:10.244 the number of players who are incredibly well known players 0:09:10.244 --> 0:09:14.764 and good players, it is just astounding. Kenny Hallard, who's 0:09:14.764 --> 0:09:18.124 one of my fellow ambassadors from Poker Stars, this is 0:09:18.164 --> 0:09:21.204 his second World Series of Poker final table got Mike 0:09:21.284 --> 0:09:25.284 Mazraki the Grinder, who is a legend, won the fifty 0:09:25.364 --> 0:09:30.324 k Players Championship four times, including this year. Adam Hendrix, 0:09:30.764 --> 0:09:34.444 you know, really nice guy, really solid player. So you know, 0:09:34.484 --> 0:09:37.524 we a lot of people to root for and everyone 0:09:37.524 --> 0:09:41.364 I was anti sweating, and anti sweating is very fun. 0:09:41.404 --> 0:09:43.804 It's people you really don't want to win. But I'm 0:09:43.924 --> 0:09:46.084 very glad that all of my anti sweats are out 0:09:46.084 --> 0:09:46.764 of the main event. 0:09:46.964 --> 0:09:49.244 Yeah, Adam Hendrix is when I play against the most 0:09:49.524 --> 0:09:52.004 most nice guy, very good player, talking about someone who's 0:09:52.044 --> 0:09:53.684 always in the mix, right, he just always somebody who 0:09:53.684 --> 0:09:56.804 seems to have have a lot of chips. You know, 0:09:56.924 --> 0:09:58.484 it seems to me like I mean, there are a 0:09:58.524 --> 0:10:03.524 few pure amateurs or predominantly amateurs left. Right, It does 0:10:03.564 --> 0:10:08.164 seem to me as though you are seeing fewer true 0:10:08.204 --> 0:10:14.684 blue amateurs when bracelets or reach very long into the 0:10:14.724 --> 0:10:17.244 World Series main event, right, like, there were a lot 0:10:17.284 --> 0:10:19.524 of big names at various stages of the top one hundred, 0:10:19.524 --> 0:10:22.204 two hundred, three hundred, et cetera, as compared to in 0:10:22.324 --> 0:10:24.644 years past. I think, you know, I think that means that, 0:10:24.764 --> 0:10:29.164 like I think the games are getting tougher. At the 0:10:29.204 --> 0:10:31.644 same time, if you are I don't need call Marie 0:10:31.684 --> 0:10:33.844 and I kind of quasi professional, like you do have 0:10:33.884 --> 0:10:37.604 more resources to study from than ever before. But like 0:10:37.644 --> 0:10:40.604 everything else, right, it's becoming like it's becoming more about 0:10:40.604 --> 0:10:43.004 who's putting in, putting in the hours, putting in, putting 0:10:43.004 --> 0:10:45.884 in the work, and back. 0:10:45.724 --> 0:10:49.244 To me, because this is all about me speaking of 0:10:49.324 --> 0:10:52.924 fish and you know, putting in hours, et cetera. I 0:10:52.964 --> 0:10:56.244 have a cautionary tale from this week's World Series from 0:10:56.684 --> 0:10:59.764 from my play. Yeah, and this is something that we 0:10:59.804 --> 0:11:02.564 can that we can all learn from, whether you play 0:11:02.604 --> 0:11:05.324 poker or not. You know, Nate, I've written about this 0:11:05.404 --> 0:11:09.644 a lot. How you know, I really into focus and 0:11:09.844 --> 0:11:14.644 multitasking bad right, and I went against that. And I 0:11:14.764 --> 0:11:18.804 was multi tabling two online bracelet events on Sunday when 0:11:18.804 --> 0:11:21.404 there were two online bracelet events going on, the three 0:11:21.524 --> 0:11:24.964 K high Roller and the Mystery Bounty. And I was 0:11:24.964 --> 0:11:26.684 one of the chip leaders in the three K high 0:11:26.764 --> 0:11:29.484 Roller with over eighty big lines. I was in seventh place, 0:11:29.844 --> 0:11:32.204 and I had eleven big lines in the Mystery Bounty. 0:11:32.524 --> 0:11:34.604 And I went all in in the Mystery Bounty with 0:11:34.724 --> 0:11:36.844 a six OFFT suit and then realized that I had 0:11:36.884 --> 0:11:40.124 misclicked and went all in in the three K high 0:11:40.204 --> 0:11:42.324 Roller with the a six OFFT suit and not the 0:11:42.324 --> 0:11:46.364 Mystery Bounty. And I was and I was called by 0:11:46.404 --> 0:11:49.044 Pocket Aces and that was the only stack at my 0:11:49.124 --> 0:11:53.044 table I actually covered me. I had eighty big lines. 0:11:53.364 --> 0:11:56.284 I had eighty biglines. The Pocket Aces had eighty six 0:11:56.324 --> 0:11:58.604 big lines. We were two of the biggest stacks in 0:11:58.644 --> 0:12:01.404 the tournament. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you 0:12:02.284 --> 0:12:06.804 absolutely torched three thousand dollars on fire. I just I've 0:12:06.844 --> 0:12:09.044 never done that before. It has never happened to me. 0:12:09.524 --> 0:12:12.124 And I was just I was mortified. I was like, 0:12:12.164 --> 0:12:14.604 oh my god, how did I do that? And then 0:12:14.644 --> 0:12:18.604 I also imagined the person tagging my profile right online, 0:12:18.644 --> 0:12:22.564 I'm being like donkey fish like shoves eighty big lines 0:12:22.644 --> 0:12:26.524 over and open with a six opsuit. The funny thing 0:12:26.604 --> 0:12:29.364 is that would have actually gotten through like ninety nine 0:12:29.364 --> 0:12:31.244 percent of the time. This person just happened to have 0:12:31.284 --> 0:12:35.124 pocket aces. But yeah, so so that was a major 0:12:35.204 --> 0:12:39.644 mis click. Don't multitask people, It's not a good idea. No. 0:12:39.804 --> 0:12:44.404 Look. One thing you notice is that as you get 0:12:44.404 --> 0:12:47.364 deeper in these events and you and maybe deeper in 0:12:47.404 --> 0:12:49.604 the series, people are more fatigued. Right, You notice more 0:12:49.724 --> 0:12:53.804 puns like avoiding a pun? 0:12:54.084 --> 0:12:55.924 Did do you think that was a punt? 0:12:57.404 --> 0:12:59.564 A certain type of punt. It's a point caused by 0:12:59.604 --> 0:13:01.924 fatigue or inattendants. I suppose right. 0:13:03.324 --> 0:13:07.564 The windows had changed places that in my defense, so 0:13:07.564 --> 0:13:08.164 so they. 0:13:08.404 --> 0:13:10.644 Use like the wrunk place or something or like I 0:13:10.684 --> 0:13:12.004 barely should But. 0:13:12.124 --> 0:13:15.324 No, I don't. I don't you can change I don't 0:13:15.324 --> 0:13:16.484 even know how to do that. I think you can 0:13:16.564 --> 0:13:18.244 change the felt of all your tables, but I don't 0:13:18.244 --> 0:13:19.764 know if you can change the felt of just one. 0:13:20.004 --> 0:13:21.964 Yeah, I like if I when I have barely been 0:13:21.964 --> 0:13:24.484 playing online anymore. When I do, I will use different colors. 0:13:24.564 --> 0:13:29.084 Give me visual cues. But yeah, look, I think and 0:13:29.124 --> 0:13:32.284 I've misclicked in real life too, you know, put out 0:13:32.284 --> 0:13:35.284 the wrong chip and and things like that. I think 0:13:35.324 --> 0:13:38.124 only I had like one or two of those and 0:13:38.164 --> 0:13:40.444 four or five weeks this year, which is for me 0:13:41.004 --> 0:13:45.004 pretty good, right. But no, I mean, I know I 0:13:45.284 --> 0:13:46.724 went on of the main event and a blaze a glory, 0:13:46.764 --> 0:13:49.164 I triple blarow, bluffed with the combo draw. I think 0:13:49.204 --> 0:13:51.444 it was a good play. But you know, and even 0:13:51.484 --> 0:13:54.724 if you make a misclick, I think you have to 0:13:54.764 --> 0:13:58.164 be kind of like butterfly effect as a term pocket 0:13:58.164 --> 0:14:00.484 players for some people use for like, everything in the 0:14:00.524 --> 0:14:02.124 event's different from the time that you play a hand. 0:14:02.164 --> 0:14:03.684 The cards are shuffled differently, you give them back the 0:14:03.684 --> 0:14:06.844 dealer differently, right, the random number seat is different online 0:14:06.924 --> 0:14:08.764 and so like, well, for sure, I think I think 0:14:08.884 --> 0:14:10.244 people make. 0:14:09.884 --> 0:14:12.924 There are lots of Yeah, there are lots of butterfly effects. 0:14:12.964 --> 0:14:13.124 You know. 0:14:13.204 --> 0:14:16.764 Yesterday during the World Poker Tour event that I was playing, 0:14:17.084 --> 0:14:20.684 there was one hand where I ended up folding a 0:14:20.684 --> 0:14:23.564 big combo draw on the flop. After there was you know, 0:14:23.604 --> 0:14:25.924 a bed and a reraise, and I you know, I 0:14:26.044 --> 0:14:28.404 just determined that you know, there's no way I'm good 0:14:28.444 --> 0:14:31.924 and I'm so basically, I ended up folding and had 0:14:31.964 --> 0:14:34.324 I just called, which I was very close to calling, 0:14:34.684 --> 0:14:37.204 you know the pod odds we were there, but I 0:14:37.324 --> 0:14:39.044 just I ended up folding. It was a big multi 0:14:39.044 --> 0:14:41.924 way pot and I actually hit it on the turn, 0:14:42.084 --> 0:14:44.244 but I had folded my hand, and I would have 0:14:44.364 --> 0:14:47.564 knocked out this incredibly aggressive player who then went on 0:14:47.644 --> 0:14:50.164 to build a huge stack. And it's so funny because 0:14:50.204 --> 0:14:51.724 I was just thinking back to that hand. I didn't 0:14:51.724 --> 0:14:54.724 make a mistake, and you can't think that way, right, Like, 0:14:54.764 --> 0:14:57.084 if you made the correct fold, it's okay if you 0:14:57.164 --> 0:14:59.484 hit it, Like, you can't think that way. But I 0:14:59.524 --> 0:15:01.924 was like, huh, I was actually thinking about the butterfly 0:15:01.964 --> 0:15:04.404 effect and kind of downstream effects. I was like, had 0:15:04.444 --> 0:15:07.204 I called right, this guy would not have knocked out 0:15:07.244 --> 0:15:10.724 all these other players, and so many other people's tournaments 0:15:11.044 --> 0:15:13.884 would have been very, very different from that one hand. 0:15:14.284 --> 0:15:16.484 And I mean that's true of so many decisions in 0:15:16.524 --> 0:15:19.364 life obviously, but in poker you can actually track them. 0:15:19.644 --> 0:15:22.324 So it's kind of funny, right in poker, you can track, like, 0:15:22.444 --> 0:15:24.964 had this hand played out differently, you know, all of 0:15:25.004 --> 0:15:27.284 these other things happen, and I think that that's just 0:15:27.324 --> 0:15:30.764 a good to remember and also good not to dwell on, right, Like, yeah, 0:15:30.804 --> 0:15:33.524 you know, that's life and that's the nature of randomness. 0:15:33.884 --> 0:15:37.124 So yeah, Nate, we can wrap up the World Series, 0:15:37.124 --> 0:15:39.964 and we'll wrap up next week after I actually finish 0:15:40.084 --> 0:15:43.404 and we know who the main event winner is. Let's 0:15:43.444 --> 0:15:46.284 take a break and then switch gears and talk about 0:15:46.284 --> 0:16:04.284 something a little bit more serious. So, Nate, the last 0:16:04.364 --> 0:16:07.764 few weeks, there's a name that's never really gone away, 0:16:07.884 --> 0:16:10.524 but has been a little bit less in the air 0:16:10.844 --> 0:16:14.604 and suddenly is back in the spotlight. Jeffrey Epstein. 0:16:15.004 --> 0:16:15.764 Jeffrey Epstein. 0:16:15.964 --> 0:16:17.844 We thought, we thought we were done. We thought we 0:16:17.844 --> 0:16:19.324 were done, and we were not done. 0:16:19.524 --> 0:16:21.404 There was a member of the New York State Assembly 0:16:21.484 --> 0:16:24.204 named Harvey Epstein who was running in my legislative district. 0:16:24.244 --> 0:16:31.964 That's a little bit of the most talked of fortunate. Okay, 0:16:32.164 --> 0:16:36.004 so you know, Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide. I'm going to 0:16:36.044 --> 0:16:37.964 put it in quote because we're going to be talking 0:16:38.004 --> 0:16:40.604 about conspiracy theories, so I'm going to put it in 0:16:40.604 --> 0:16:42.884 in quotation marks. But this is a conspiracy theory that 0:16:42.884 --> 0:16:45.964 actually a lot of people believe in he committed suicide 0:16:45.964 --> 0:16:50.124 in prison while awaiting trial on various charges of sex trafficking, 0:16:50.124 --> 0:16:54.404 et cetera, et cetera. His co conspirator, Gislen Maxwell, is 0:16:54.764 --> 0:16:58.284 serving a prison sentence currently, I think twenty years. But 0:16:58.484 --> 0:17:02.124 the Epstein files, right, the files that all of this 0:17:02.404 --> 0:17:06.524 was built on, clients, video footage, et cetera, et cetera. 0:17:06.604 --> 0:17:09.164 There's been talk that this exists, right, that there's like 0:17:09.204 --> 0:17:12.804 this treasure trove of data that's been kept secret. And 0:17:12.844 --> 0:17:15.444 one of the things that Donald Trump said is, We're 0:17:15.484 --> 0:17:17.324 going to bring all these people to justice. We are 0:17:17.364 --> 0:17:20.844 going to kind of bring the Epstein files to the light. 0:17:21.204 --> 0:17:25.004 We're going to share all of this. And then all 0:17:25.004 --> 0:17:27.964 of a sudden, no, there are no there's no there 0:17:27.964 --> 0:17:30.764 are no client lists, there's nothing there. We should forget 0:17:30.804 --> 0:17:33.724 Jeffrey Epstein. No one cares about him, nothing's going to 0:17:33.764 --> 0:17:36.924 be released, and so the statement's completely changed, and so 0:17:37.404 --> 0:17:40.564 conspiracy theories are in the air and people think that 0:17:40.604 --> 0:17:43.204 there's some massive cover up, and this is one of 0:17:43.204 --> 0:17:47.084 those moments. And these moments are incredibly rare. Inn You 0:17:47.124 --> 0:17:49.484 and I have talked about this before, where there seem 0:17:49.564 --> 0:17:52.324 to be you know, Trump's supporters who are saying, wait, wait, 0:17:52.364 --> 0:17:55.004 wait a second, what the hell? Right, we were promised 0:17:55.124 --> 0:17:59.884 names and justice for these people who have committed sex 0:17:59.924 --> 0:18:03.684 crimes against children, right, what's going on now? Why are 0:18:03.684 --> 0:18:06.084 you telling us that there are no names? And so 0:18:06.164 --> 0:18:09.324 this is one of those rare moments where people seem 0:18:09.324 --> 0:18:12.724 to not be happy on the Republican side as well 0:18:12.764 --> 0:18:14.044 as on the Democratic side. 0:18:14.524 --> 0:18:19.724 Yeah, what's a conspiracy theory, Maria in your opinion, Well. 0:18:19.604 --> 0:18:22.004 There are plenty of conspiracy theories in here. I mean, 0:18:22.044 --> 0:18:24.524 one of the biggest ones is that, obviously, as Elon 0:18:24.644 --> 0:18:28.244 Musk alleged after his falling out with Trump before his 0:18:28.324 --> 0:18:31.204 reconciliation with Trump. Although now I think they've fallen out again. 0:18:31.364 --> 0:18:33.844 I can't. I can't keep it straining. They're in, they're out, 0:18:34.324 --> 0:18:36.524 they're in, they're out. But I think they're out right now. 0:18:36.564 --> 0:18:41.284 But Elon Musk alleged Trump's name is in the files, 0:18:41.324 --> 0:18:43.804 and not in a good way, because let's uh, let's 0:18:43.844 --> 0:18:46.044 just caveat this for a second. So if your name 0:18:46.084 --> 0:18:48.444 is in quote unquote the Epstein files, that doesn't actually 0:18:48.444 --> 0:18:51.404 mean that you're implicated, right, The Epstein files is just 0:18:51.444 --> 0:18:56.724 to catch all name for all of the evidence trial transcripts, 0:18:56.724 --> 0:18:59.484 et cetera, et cetera. So you might have been deposed, right, 0:18:59.524 --> 0:19:01.764 you might have been giving a statement, you might have 0:19:01.844 --> 0:19:03.924 been There's there are a lot of ways your name 0:19:03.924 --> 0:19:06.324 can end up in the Epstein files. But what Elon 0:19:06.444 --> 0:19:10.604 Musk suggested alleged was that was tied up in it 0:19:10.684 --> 0:19:14.644 in not in a deposition way, but in a much 0:19:14.684 --> 0:19:17.724 more direct way. And so the biggest conspiracy theory might 0:19:17.764 --> 0:19:20.204 be that, you know, Donald Trump does not want these 0:19:20.204 --> 0:19:23.284 files released because they implicate him. Right, So that's I 0:19:23.324 --> 0:19:26.764 think the biggest conspiracy theory Trump and other people who 0:19:26.804 --> 0:19:27.924 are high up in the government. 0:19:28.204 --> 0:19:31.204 I mean, you know, I I'm not sure I love 0:19:31.244 --> 0:19:34.764 the term conspiracy theory. It's like a kind of cousin 0:19:34.844 --> 0:19:38.724 of misinformation, which is the term I don't like necessarily 0:19:38.884 --> 0:19:42.764 and part because like some conspiracy theories like later proved 0:19:42.844 --> 0:19:47.444 to be true or plausible, right, I mean, the Lablique 0:19:47.444 --> 0:19:51.404 thesis of Covied origins is not generally accepted as the truth. 0:19:51.444 --> 0:19:54.804 It's generally accepted though now by the scientific community in 0:19:54.804 --> 0:19:57.844 most governments, is a plausible you know, fifty to fifty 0:19:58.044 --> 0:20:01.484 or something theory, Right, Things like the Tuskegee experiment or 0:20:02.004 --> 0:20:05.564 lower stakes more recent like you know Hunter Biden's laptop. 0:20:05.604 --> 0:20:08.204 There's lots of stuff that gets labeled this way, and like, 0:20:08.204 --> 0:20:11.204 why wouldn't why shouldn't you be a little suspicious of 0:20:11.684 --> 0:20:14.004 whether Epstein really killed himselves? Right? Oh? 0:20:14.084 --> 0:20:16.124 No, I mean that one for sure, that one I 0:20:16.444 --> 0:20:18.804 actually am suspicious off as well. I think that a 0:20:18.844 --> 0:20:21.484 lot of things get labeled conspiracy theory. I think conspiracy 0:20:21.524 --> 0:20:24.884 theory is an incredibly useful term, but it can't get 0:20:24.924 --> 0:20:28.724 thrown around on things that it doesn't actually fit. This 0:20:28.844 --> 0:20:30.884 is the same argument I make with con artists when 0:20:30.884 --> 0:20:32.484 people are like, oh, this is a con artist. That's 0:20:32.484 --> 0:20:33.804 a con artist. I'm like, no, you need to be 0:20:33.844 --> 0:20:36.684 specific in what a con artist is, right. A con 0:20:36.724 --> 0:20:39.044