1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:32,964 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, the show about making 2 00:00:33,004 --> 00:00:35,444 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 3 00:00:35,124 --> 00:00:38,684 Speaker 2: And back in New York City, New York, not Las Vegas. 4 00:00:39,204 --> 00:00:41,644 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. What are we talking about, Maria? 5 00:00:42,204 --> 00:00:43,884 Speaker 1: So first we're going to do a little bit of 6 00:00:43,884 --> 00:00:46,684 Speaker 1: a poker update. As you guys known, it wasn't here 7 00:00:47,084 --> 00:00:49,844 Speaker 1: last week, so you had him in absentsha a pre 8 00:00:49,884 --> 00:00:51,804 Speaker 1: taped interview because he had a deep run in the 9 00:00:51,844 --> 00:00:55,284 Speaker 1: main I've had a few runs as well, and there's 10 00:00:55,404 --> 00:00:57,084 Speaker 1: lots of news from the World Series. So we're going 11 00:00:57,164 --> 00:00:59,004 Speaker 1: to start with a poker update. Then we're going to 12 00:00:59,084 --> 00:01:02,484 Speaker 1: get a little bit more serious and talk about some 13 00:01:03,044 --> 00:01:04,564 Speaker 1: conspiracy theories in the air. 14 00:01:10,444 --> 00:01:12,684 Speaker 2: Maria, is the World Series Poker still going on? It 15 00:01:12,804 --> 00:01:15,364 Speaker 2: is like today the last official day where you can 16 00:01:15,524 --> 00:01:16,884 Speaker 2: enter a new event. Is that right? 17 00:01:17,444 --> 00:01:20,404 Speaker 1: No, there are two more days night, so we're recording 18 00:01:20,404 --> 00:01:26,204 Speaker 1: this on Tuesday, July fifteenth. There are multiple bracelet events, 19 00:01:26,244 --> 00:01:29,164 Speaker 1: and then tomorrow there's also a turbo. You know that 20 00:01:29,244 --> 00:01:34,004 Speaker 1: we love turbos. They're a nice, nice little ways to 21 00:01:34,044 --> 00:01:36,724 Speaker 1: try to get a fast bracelet. At the end of 22 00:01:36,764 --> 00:01:39,484 Speaker 1: the series, so a few more days left, I have 23 00:01:39,604 --> 00:01:42,084 Speaker 1: been not at the World Series, but at the WPT 24 00:01:42,364 --> 00:01:45,724 Speaker 1: event at the Venetian. Had a nice deep run there 25 00:01:45,764 --> 00:01:48,884 Speaker 1: and actually busted in fifty third place last hand of 26 00:01:48,924 --> 00:01:52,324 Speaker 1: the night yesterday. So we were you know, anyone who 27 00:01:52,324 --> 00:01:53,884 Speaker 1: plays poker, you know, at the end of the night 28 00:01:53,964 --> 00:01:56,524 Speaker 1: they pause the clock and they say four more hands, 29 00:01:56,524 --> 00:01:58,844 Speaker 1: five more hands. Well I wish they had said four 30 00:01:58,884 --> 00:02:02,204 Speaker 1: more hands, because on hand number five I was dealt 31 00:02:02,484 --> 00:02:07,204 Speaker 1: pocket jacks with eighteen big lines on the button, and 32 00:02:07,924 --> 00:02:10,404 Speaker 1: the small blind who was an incredibly of European player 33 00:02:10,404 --> 00:02:13,084 Speaker 1: who'd been three betting me all day, three bet me 34 00:02:13,364 --> 00:02:15,564 Speaker 1: and we went with the jacks. In that time he 35 00:02:15,644 --> 00:02:18,924 Speaker 1: happened to have pocket kings and that was the end. 36 00:02:19,244 --> 00:02:21,964 Speaker 2: What kind of euro Romanian? I try to get the 37 00:02:22,004 --> 00:02:25,204 Speaker 2: Euros to talk more like the Romanians the Eastern Europeans 38 00:02:25,244 --> 00:02:29,164 Speaker 2: are like, but like someone like the Germans or the Dutch, 39 00:02:29,324 --> 00:02:31,244 Speaker 2: or like a little more serious than they need to be. 40 00:02:31,284 --> 00:02:33,244 Speaker 2: I try to break them out of their shells, you 41 00:02:33,244 --> 00:02:34,324 Speaker 2: know what, Maria. 42 00:02:34,164 --> 00:02:37,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, that's a great strategy. This Romania was 43 00:02:37,244 --> 00:02:40,324 Speaker 1: very sweet, very nice, very talkative, and took all my chips. 44 00:02:41,324 --> 00:02:44,684 Speaker 2: I busted the last time of the night, in my 45 00:02:44,804 --> 00:02:47,844 Speaker 2: last World Series event, what was a three K midstake something, 46 00:02:48,204 --> 00:02:50,804 Speaker 2: although it was someone like like, I don't think that 47 00:02:50,924 --> 00:02:55,204 Speaker 2: poker players should intentionally make a goal of like, oh 48 00:02:55,244 --> 00:02:58,204 Speaker 2: I made it to X day, Like, if anything, it 49 00:02:58,244 --> 00:03:00,884 Speaker 2: reduces your flexibility. In my case, it was to kind 50 00:03:00,884 --> 00:03:03,764 Speaker 2: of settle my business and get out of town. But 51 00:03:03,804 --> 00:03:05,564 Speaker 2: it might not be playing another tournament or taking an 52 00:03:05,564 --> 00:03:07,764 Speaker 2: off day or things like that, and so like it's 53 00:03:07,764 --> 00:03:10,964 Speaker 2: an arbitrary cutoff busting out on the last it looked 54 00:03:10,964 --> 00:03:14,924 Speaker 2: like but I I, you know, last hand before dinner, break, 55 00:03:15,644 --> 00:03:17,764 Speaker 2: last hand, last orbit at the end of the day. 56 00:03:18,644 --> 00:03:20,644 Speaker 2: Can sometimes we get opportunity to pick to pick up 57 00:03:20,684 --> 00:03:25,684 Speaker 2: chipsyp a little bit tired, right, yep, conflict diverse and yeah, no, no. 58 00:03:25,604 --> 00:03:28,764 Speaker 1: Shame, Maria, No, no, no shame at all. You know. 59 00:03:28,844 --> 00:03:31,324 Speaker 1: I actually I have a story about this because psychologically 60 00:03:31,364 --> 00:03:34,284 Speaker 1: it's actually a really interesting thing because I think that 61 00:03:34,364 --> 00:03:36,524 Speaker 1: this is this is something that carries over, you know, 62 00:03:36,564 --> 00:03:38,844 Speaker 1: from the poker world to the real world, where people 63 00:03:38,924 --> 00:03:41,244 Speaker 1: just want to like they want to last, right, like 64 00:03:41,284 --> 00:03:44,364 Speaker 1: they don't want to they don't want to bust in quotes. 65 00:03:44,764 --> 00:03:47,764 Speaker 1: And I back when I was just learning poker and 66 00:03:47,764 --> 00:03:51,004 Speaker 1: I was still really working closely with Eric Sidell, and 67 00:03:51,044 --> 00:03:53,564 Speaker 1: he was giving me a lot of coaching. I remember 68 00:03:53,724 --> 00:03:55,724 Speaker 1: it was a big event. It was late in the night, 69 00:03:56,044 --> 00:03:58,324 Speaker 1: you know, we had a few hands left and I 70 00:03:58,364 --> 00:04:01,924 Speaker 1: remember folding preflop I think pocket sevens something like that 71 00:04:02,004 --> 00:04:04,844 Speaker 1: because I just didn't want to deal with it. I 72 00:04:04,884 --> 00:04:06,684 Speaker 1: didn't want to and there were like a few hands 73 00:04:06,724 --> 00:04:08,204 Speaker 1: left in the night, and I told him this. I 74 00:04:08,244 --> 00:04:10,004 Speaker 1: was like, you know, I was just tired, and he 75 00:04:10,124 --> 00:04:13,084 Speaker 1: just he didn't say anything. And then later he came 76 00:04:13,164 --> 00:04:14,924 Speaker 1: up to me and he's like, we need to talk 77 00:04:14,964 --> 00:04:17,204 Speaker 1: about that. He's like, do you see you know Jason 78 00:04:17,284 --> 00:04:19,564 Speaker 1: Kuhn or I Caxton, you know, some of the best 79 00:04:19,604 --> 00:04:21,884 Speaker 1: players in the world folding pocket sevens in that spot. 80 00:04:22,084 --> 00:04:23,524 Speaker 1: And I was like, no, I guess not. He's like, 81 00:04:23,564 --> 00:04:27,044 Speaker 1: you can't do that right, like you're leaving ev And yes, 82 00:04:27,124 --> 00:04:29,324 Speaker 1: I understand that you're tired and you don't want to bust, 83 00:04:29,324 --> 00:04:31,724 Speaker 1: but these are bad reasons and you need to play 84 00:04:31,844 --> 00:04:33,364 Speaker 1: like you are there to play, and you're there to 85 00:04:33,364 --> 00:04:36,204 Speaker 1: play your best game, and you have to take those spots, 86 00:04:36,564 --> 00:04:38,484 Speaker 1: and you have to take advantage of people who aren't 87 00:04:38,564 --> 00:04:41,124 Speaker 1: willing to take those spots. Those are the people who win. 88 00:04:41,484 --> 00:04:44,884 Speaker 1: And you know, I think that really that conversation really 89 00:04:44,884 --> 00:04:48,924 Speaker 1: stayed with me because it's such important life advice, right, like, 90 00:04:49,044 --> 00:04:52,164 Speaker 1: don't don't fold when you're just like feeling a little 91 00:04:52,244 --> 00:04:54,924 Speaker 1: risk averse if it's not for the right reasons. The 92 00:04:54,964 --> 00:04:57,404 Speaker 1: why has to be correct, and the why can't be 93 00:04:58,004 --> 00:05:00,964 Speaker 1: I don't want to bust, right, that's that's not that's 94 00:05:01,044 --> 00:05:02,044 Speaker 1: not a good reason. 95 00:05:02,364 --> 00:05:06,844 Speaker 2: Yeah, And also knowing when the marginal spots are and 96 00:05:06,924 --> 00:05:09,164 Speaker 2: what's less marginal, right, Like, it's fine to fold the 97 00:05:09,244 --> 00:05:12,484 Speaker 2: very marginal stuff, but like you have this exponential thing 98 00:05:12,604 --> 00:05:16,244 Speaker 2: where hands quickly escalating value, and in most positions, folding 99 00:05:16,284 --> 00:05:20,484 Speaker 2: sevens from some reasonable position is a substantially positive expected 100 00:05:20,564 --> 00:05:23,284 Speaker 2: value play. Even if you even if you like lost 101 00:05:23,404 --> 00:05:26,244 Speaker 2: twenty IQ points the men you put chips in the hand, right, 102 00:05:26,844 --> 00:05:28,644 Speaker 2: you know, you're probably still gonna make enough money by 103 00:05:28,644 --> 00:05:31,444 Speaker 2: flopping sets and continuing carefully when the board's dry and 104 00:05:31,484 --> 00:05:33,524 Speaker 2: things like that. Right, And like you do have to 105 00:05:33,524 --> 00:05:35,204 Speaker 2: pay yourself a little bit. The World series as long 106 00:05:35,244 --> 00:05:36,764 Speaker 2: of it, how would you how would you rate your 107 00:05:36,804 --> 00:05:37,964 Speaker 2: overall World Series? 108 00:05:39,044 --> 00:05:42,124 Speaker 1: Well, we're not done yet. We're not done yet. Okay, 109 00:05:42,164 --> 00:05:44,484 Speaker 1: I still have I still have a few events to go. 110 00:05:44,844 --> 00:05:51,444 Speaker 1: I'd give myself, uh a B minus maybe in yeah, 111 00:05:51,484 --> 00:05:53,964 Speaker 1: in this world series, but we'll see, we'll see. 112 00:05:54,004 --> 00:05:54,364 Speaker 2: Maybe. 113 00:05:54,404 --> 00:05:56,284 Speaker 1: You know, I bink a bracelet in the last two 114 00:05:56,364 --> 00:05:58,844 Speaker 1: days and I'm like, just kidding. No, Actually, I wouldn't 115 00:05:58,884 --> 00:06:02,204 Speaker 1: change my rating because you know, the the B minus 116 00:06:02,244 --> 00:06:05,884 Speaker 1: isn't for results only, it's for kind of overall play, 117 00:06:05,964 --> 00:06:08,444 Speaker 1: et cetera. And I definitely, you know, I think I've 118 00:06:08,444 --> 00:06:10,084 Speaker 1: played well in some of it. I think I made 119 00:06:10,084 --> 00:06:12,684 Speaker 1: some mistakes in some events, like there's you know, there's 120 00:06:12,724 --> 00:06:14,444 Speaker 1: a lot going on, there's a lot to learn, and 121 00:06:14,484 --> 00:06:18,524 Speaker 1: there's always room to improve. So I think that that's 122 00:06:18,604 --> 00:06:21,684 Speaker 1: a reasonable reasonable grade for myself. 123 00:06:21,804 --> 00:06:24,004 Speaker 2: How about you, Nate, I'll give myself a B plus 124 00:06:24,084 --> 00:06:26,124 Speaker 2: as far as how I played. So, I think I've 125 00:06:26,124 --> 00:06:30,044 Speaker 2: become like pretty adept to exploitive things. Picking up on 126 00:06:30,164 --> 00:06:34,084 Speaker 2: vibes tells just general exploited to play to beat those players. 127 00:06:34,124 --> 00:06:38,484 Speaker 2: I focus less on hanging around with elite players, and 128 00:06:38,484 --> 00:06:40,564 Speaker 2: I think those spots were more tricky. I'm kind of 129 00:06:40,564 --> 00:06:42,884 Speaker 2: in this like weird spot mixed games are I think 130 00:06:42,924 --> 00:06:46,204 Speaker 2: it's not Texas no limit hold them basically right, and 131 00:06:46,284 --> 00:06:48,804 Speaker 2: like for the first time in some period I put 132 00:06:48,804 --> 00:06:51,524 Speaker 2: more study into those mixed games. It also bricked all 133 00:06:51,524 --> 00:06:54,644 Speaker 2: my events where you often face like much tougher field. 134 00:06:54,764 --> 00:06:58,244 Speaker 2: So it's probably the World Series that like was very 135 00:06:58,324 --> 00:07:02,324 Speaker 2: much at the median of like what you could reasonably expect, right, 136 00:07:03,044 --> 00:07:04,684 Speaker 2: And the thing is, like, so I wound up. I 137 00:07:04,684 --> 00:07:06,084 Speaker 2: think when I tell it up, I'm going to have 138 00:07:06,164 --> 00:07:10,084 Speaker 2: lost a little bit of money despite cashing the main 139 00:07:10,084 --> 00:07:11,444 Speaker 2: event and when they've have been after that for like 140 00:07:11,444 --> 00:07:14,404 Speaker 2: a combined sixty two thousand or whatever, Right, but fifty 141 00:07:14,524 --> 00:07:18,164 Speaker 2: thousand offsets a lot of ten K buy ins. I 142 00:07:18,164 --> 00:07:20,404 Speaker 2: bought in twice to this win ten k and to 143 00:07:20,644 --> 00:07:25,204 Speaker 2: various mixed games ten k's right, And then so yeah, 144 00:07:25,404 --> 00:07:27,644 Speaker 2: even then you're like, I think a little bit down 145 00:07:27,684 --> 00:07:29,124 Speaker 2: for the tournament. Like I said, I'll do the math, 146 00:07:29,204 --> 00:07:30,844 Speaker 2: but like, but that's kind of like I think you 147 00:07:30,884 --> 00:07:35,884 Speaker 2: are allowed to look at signs of successful play that 148 00:07:36,044 --> 00:07:41,444 Speaker 2: like aren't necessarily just how much you increase your hand 149 00:07:41,444 --> 00:07:45,524 Speaker 2: in mob Hendon is the encyclopedia of everybody's poker results, right, Like, 150 00:07:45,764 --> 00:07:48,164 Speaker 2: you know, if you're in the mix, as I call it, right, 151 00:07:48,444 --> 00:07:50,804 Speaker 2: you're building a big stacks early, You're lasting a long time. 152 00:07:50,884 --> 00:07:52,884 Speaker 2: You're part of the story of the tournament. You're attracting 153 00:07:52,924 --> 00:07:55,884 Speaker 2: some maybe media attention from your friends. You have some 154 00:07:55,964 --> 00:07:57,684 Speaker 2: fun hands that you can play and talk about later. 155 00:07:57,844 --> 00:08:02,244 Speaker 2: Like if you're in the mix constantly, then that feels 156 00:08:02,284 --> 00:08:04,524 Speaker 2: to me like airing towards the side of a more 157 00:08:04,564 --> 00:08:08,004 Speaker 2: successful World Series, even if you do run Jackson King 158 00:08:08,164 --> 00:08:11,004 Speaker 2: sometimes or lose, flips, bad meats, et cetera sometimes. 159 00:08:11,444 --> 00:08:13,644 Speaker 1: Yep. I think I think that that is all correct. 160 00:08:13,684 --> 00:08:16,084 Speaker 1: I'm also down for the series, not nearly as down 161 00:08:16,604 --> 00:08:19,164 Speaker 1: as I was last year. As you know, last year 162 00:08:19,204 --> 00:08:21,084 Speaker 1: I was down. I was six figures. That is not 163 00:08:21,164 --> 00:08:24,044 Speaker 1: true now. And like I said, a few events left 164 00:08:24,284 --> 00:08:27,884 Speaker 1: and as everyone knows and every winning player knows, like 165 00:08:28,004 --> 00:08:30,604 Speaker 1: it is all the big scores, right, like that's what matters. 166 00:08:30,844 --> 00:08:33,724 Speaker 1: That's that's what actually will make the difference. So we'll 167 00:08:33,724 --> 00:08:36,764 Speaker 1: see and we can check back in next week. But 168 00:08:36,964 --> 00:08:38,804 Speaker 1: I just want to give a big shout out. By 169 00:08:38,804 --> 00:08:40,964 Speaker 1: the time you guys hear this, there will be a winner. 170 00:08:41,164 --> 00:08:43,884 Speaker 1: But we have the first woman in over thirty years 171 00:08:44,724 --> 00:08:47,324 Speaker 1: at the final table of the World Series main event, 172 00:08:47,564 --> 00:08:51,644 Speaker 1: Leo maud Gets from Spain. She's lovely. I've known her 173 00:08:51,684 --> 00:08:54,324 Speaker 1: for a number of years and she's very easy to 174 00:08:54,404 --> 00:08:57,004 Speaker 1: root for and a great player. And I just want 175 00:08:57,044 --> 00:08:59,524 Speaker 1: to give a shout out to a pretty historic moment 176 00:08:59,604 --> 00:09:02,364 Speaker 1: for the World Series. I think I think that that's 177 00:09:02,644 --> 00:09:06,004 Speaker 1: really great, and it's just it's a crazy final table, right, 178 00:09:06,124 --> 00:09:10,244 Speaker 1: the number of players who are incredibly well known players 179 00:09:10,244 --> 00:09:14,764 Speaker 1: and good players, it is just astounding. Kenny Hallard, who's 180 00:09:14,764 --> 00:09:18,124 Speaker 1: one of my fellow ambassadors from Poker Stars, this is 181 00:09:18,164 --> 00:09:21,204 Speaker 1: his second World Series of Poker final table got Mike 182 00:09:21,284 --> 00:09:25,284 Speaker 1: Mazraki the Grinder, who is a legend, won the fifty 183 00:09:25,364 --> 00:09:30,324 Speaker 1: k Players Championship four times, including this year. Adam Hendrix, 184 00:09:30,764 --> 00:09:34,444 Speaker 1: you know, really nice guy, really solid player. So you know, 185 00:09:34,484 --> 00:09:37,524 Speaker 1: we a lot of people to root for and everyone 186 00:09:37,524 --> 00:09:41,364 Speaker 1: I was anti sweating, and anti sweating is very fun. 187 00:09:41,404 --> 00:09:43,804 Speaker 1: It's people you really don't want to win. But I'm 188 00:09:43,924 --> 00:09:46,084 Speaker 1: very glad that all of my anti sweats are out 189 00:09:46,084 --> 00:09:46,764 Speaker 1: of the main event. 190 00:09:46,964 --> 00:09:49,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, Adam Hendrix is when I play against the most 191 00:09:49,524 --> 00:09:52,004 Speaker 2: most nice guy, very good player, talking about someone who's 192 00:09:52,044 --> 00:09:53,684 Speaker 2: always in the mix, right, he just always somebody who 193 00:09:53,684 --> 00:09:56,804 Speaker 2: seems to have have a lot of chips. You know, 194 00:09:56,924 --> 00:09:58,484 Speaker 2: it seems to me like I mean, there are a 195 00:09:58,524 --> 00:10:03,524 Speaker 2: few pure amateurs or predominantly amateurs left. Right, It does 196 00:10:03,564 --> 00:10:08,164 Speaker 2: seem to me as though you are seeing fewer true 197 00:10:08,204 --> 00:10:14,684 Speaker 2: blue amateurs when bracelets or reach very long into the 198 00:10:14,724 --> 00:10:17,244 Speaker 2: World Series main event, right, like, there were a lot 199 00:10:17,284 --> 00:10:19,524 Speaker 2: of big names at various stages of the top one hundred, 200 00:10:19,524 --> 00:10:22,204 Speaker 2: two hundred, three hundred, et cetera, as compared to in 201 00:10:22,324 --> 00:10:24,644 Speaker 2: years past. I think, you know, I think that means that, 202 00:10:24,764 --> 00:10:29,164 Speaker 2: like I think the games are getting tougher. At the 203 00:10:29,204 --> 00:10:31,644 Speaker 2: same time, if you are I don't need call Marie 204 00:10:31,684 --> 00:10:33,844 Speaker 2: and I kind of quasi professional, like you do have 205 00:10:33,884 --> 00:10:37,604 Speaker 2: more resources to study from than ever before. But like 206 00:10:37,644 --> 00:10:40,604 Speaker 2: everything else, right, it's becoming like it's becoming more about 207 00:10:40,604 --> 00:10:43,004 Speaker 2: who's putting in, putting in the hours, putting in, putting 208 00:10:43,004 --> 00:10:45,884 Speaker 2: in the work, and back. 209 00:10:45,724 --> 00:10:49,244 Speaker 1: To me, because this is all about me speaking of 210 00:10:49,324 --> 00:10:52,924 Speaker 1: fish and you know, putting in hours, et cetera. I 211 00:10:52,964 --> 00:10:56,244 Speaker 1: have a cautionary tale from this week's World Series from 212 00:10:56,684 --> 00:10:59,764 Speaker 1: from my play. Yeah, and this is something that we 213 00:10:59,804 --> 00:11:02,564 Speaker 1: can that we can all learn from, whether you play 214 00:11:02,604 --> 00:11:05,324 Speaker 1: poker or not. You know, Nate, I've written about this 215 00:11:05,404 --> 00:11:09,644 Speaker 1: a lot. How you know, I really into focus and 216 00:11:09,844 --> 00:11:14,644 Speaker 1: multitasking bad right, and I went against that. And I 217 00:11:14,764 --> 00:11:18,804 Speaker 1: was multi tabling two online bracelet events on Sunday when 218 00:11:18,804 --> 00:11:21,404 Speaker 1: there were two online bracelet events going on, the three 219 00:11:21,524 --> 00:11:24,964 Speaker 1: K high Roller and the Mystery Bounty. And I was 220 00:11:24,964 --> 00:11:26,684 Speaker 1: one of the chip leaders in the three K high 221 00:11:26,764 --> 00:11:29,484 Speaker 1: Roller with over eighty big lines. I was in seventh place, 222 00:11:29,844 --> 00:11:32,204 Speaker 1: and I had eleven big lines in the Mystery Bounty. 223 00:11:32,524 --> 00:11:34,604 Speaker 1: And I went all in in the Mystery Bounty with 224 00:11:34,724 --> 00:11:36,844 Speaker 1: a six OFFT suit and then realized that I had 225 00:11:36,884 --> 00:11:40,124 Speaker 1: misclicked and went all in in the three K high 226 00:11:40,204 --> 00:11:42,324 Speaker 1: Roller with the a six OFFT suit and not the 227 00:11:42,324 --> 00:11:46,364 Speaker 1: Mystery Bounty. And I was and I was called by 228 00:11:46,404 --> 00:11:49,044 Speaker 1: Pocket Aces and that was the only stack at my 229 00:11:49,124 --> 00:11:53,044 Speaker 1: table I actually covered me. I had eighty big lines. 230 00:11:53,364 --> 00:11:56,284 Speaker 1: I had eighty biglines. The Pocket Aces had eighty six 231 00:11:56,324 --> 00:11:58,604 Speaker 1: big lines. We were two of the biggest stacks in 232 00:11:58,644 --> 00:12:01,404 Speaker 1: the tournament. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how you 233 00:12:02,284 --> 00:12:06,804 Speaker 1: absolutely torched three thousand dollars on fire. I just I've 234 00:12:06,844 --> 00:12:09,044 Speaker 1: never done that before. It has never happened to me. 235 00:12:09,524 --> 00:12:12,124 Speaker 1: And I was just I was mortified. I was like, 236 00:12:12,164 --> 00:12:14,604 Speaker 1: oh my god, how did I do that? And then 237 00:12:14,644 --> 00:12:18,604 Speaker 1: I also imagined the person tagging my profile right online, 238 00:12:18,644 --> 00:12:22,564 Speaker 1: I'm being like donkey fish like shoves eighty big lines 239 00:12:22,644 --> 00:12:26,524 Speaker 1: over and open with a six opsuit. The funny thing 240 00:12:26,604 --> 00:12:29,364 Speaker 1: is that would have actually gotten through like ninety nine 241 00:12:29,364 --> 00:12:31,244 Speaker 1: percent of the time. This person just happened to have 242 00:12:31,284 --> 00:12:35,124 Speaker 1: pocket aces. But yeah, so so that was a major 243 00:12:35,204 --> 00:12:39,644 Speaker 1: mis click. Don't multitask people, It's not a good idea. No. 244 00:12:39,804 --> 00:12:44,404 Speaker 2: Look. One thing you notice is that as you get 245 00:12:44,404 --> 00:12:47,364 Speaker 2: deeper in these events and you and maybe deeper in 246 00:12:47,404 --> 00:12:49,604 Speaker 2: the series, people are more fatigued. Right, You notice more 247 00:12:49,724 --> 00:12:53,804 Speaker 2: puns like avoiding a pun? 248 00:12:54,084 --> 00:12:55,924 Speaker 1: Did do you think that was a punt? 249 00:12:57,404 --> 00:12:59,564 Speaker 2: A certain type of punt. It's a point caused by 250 00:12:59,604 --> 00:13:01,924 Speaker 2: fatigue or inattendants. I suppose right. 251 00:13:03,324 --> 00:13:07,564 Speaker 1: The windows had changed places that in my defense, so 252 00:13:07,564 --> 00:13:08,164 Speaker 1: so they. 253 00:13:08,404 --> 00:13:10,644 Speaker 2: Use like the wrunk place or something or like I 254 00:13:10,684 --> 00:13:12,004 Speaker 2: barely should But. 255 00:13:12,124 --> 00:13:15,324 Speaker 1: No, I don't. I don't you can change I don't 256 00:13:15,324 --> 00:13:16,484 Speaker 1: even know how to do that. I think you can 257 00:13:16,564 --> 00:13:18,244 Speaker 1: change the felt of all your tables, but I don't 258 00:13:18,244 --> 00:13:19,764 Speaker 1: know if you can change the felt of just one. 259 00:13:20,004 --> 00:13:21,964 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like if I when I have barely been 260 00:13:21,964 --> 00:13:24,484 Speaker 2: playing online anymore. When I do, I will use different colors. 261 00:13:24,564 --> 00:13:29,084 Speaker 2: Give me visual cues. But yeah, look, I think and 262 00:13:29,124 --> 00:13:32,284 Speaker 2: I've misclicked in real life too, you know, put out 263 00:13:32,284 --> 00:13:35,284 Speaker 2: the wrong chip and and things like that. I think 264 00:13:35,324 --> 00:13:38,124 Speaker 2: only I had like one or two of those and 265 00:13:38,164 --> 00:13:40,444 Speaker 2: four or five weeks this year, which is for me 266 00:13:41,004 --> 00:13:45,004 Speaker 2: pretty good, right. But no, I mean, I know I 267 00:13:45,284 --> 00:13:46,724 Speaker 2: went on of the main event and a blaze a glory, 268 00:13:46,764 --> 00:13:49,164 Speaker 2: I triple blarow, bluffed with the combo draw. I think 269 00:13:49,204 --> 00:13:51,444 Speaker 2: it was a good play. But you know, and even 270 00:13:51,484 --> 00:13:54,724 Speaker 2: if you make a misclick, I think you have to 271 00:13:54,764 --> 00:13:58,164 Speaker 2: be kind of like butterfly effect as a term pocket 272 00:13:58,164 --> 00:14:00,484 Speaker 2: players for some people use for like, everything in the 273 00:14:00,524 --> 00:14:02,124 Speaker 2: event's different from the time that you play a hand. 274 00:14:02,164 --> 00:14:03,684 Speaker 2: The cards are shuffled differently, you give them back the 275 00:14:03,684 --> 00:14:06,844 Speaker 2: dealer differently, right, the random number seat is different online 276 00:14:06,924 --> 00:14:08,764 Speaker 2: and so like, well, for sure, I think I think 277 00:14:08,884 --> 00:14:10,244 Speaker 2: people make. 278 00:14:09,884 --> 00:14:12,924 Speaker 1: There are lots of Yeah, there are lots of butterfly effects. 279 00:14:12,964 --> 00:14:13,124 Speaker 2: You know. 280 00:14:13,204 --> 00:14:16,764 Speaker 1: Yesterday during the World Poker Tour event that I was playing, 281 00:14:17,084 --> 00:14:20,684 Speaker 1: there was one hand where I ended up folding a 282 00:14:20,684 --> 00:14:23,564 Speaker 1: big combo draw on the flop. After there was you know, 283 00:14:23,604 --> 00:14:25,924 Speaker 1: a bed and a reraise, and I you know, I 284 00:14:26,044 --> 00:14:28,404 Speaker 1: just determined that you know, there's no way I'm good 285 00:14:28,444 --> 00:14:31,924 Speaker 1: and I'm so basically, I ended up folding and had 286 00:14:31,964 --> 00:14:34,324 Speaker 1: I just called, which I was very close to calling, 287 00:14:34,684 --> 00:14:37,204 Speaker 1: you know the pod odds we were there, but I 288 00:14:37,324 --> 00:14:39,044 Speaker 1: just I ended up folding. It was a big multi 289 00:14:39,044 --> 00:14:41,924 Speaker 1: way pot and I actually hit it on the turn, 290 00:14:42,084 --> 00:14:44,244 Speaker 1: but I had folded my hand, and I would have 291 00:14:44,364 --> 00:14:47,564 Speaker 1: knocked out this incredibly aggressive player who then went on 292 00:14:47,644 --> 00:14:50,164 Speaker 1: to build a huge stack. And it's so funny because 293 00:14:50,204 --> 00:14:51,724 Speaker 1: I was just thinking back to that hand. I didn't 294 00:14:51,724 --> 00:14:54,724 Speaker 1: make a mistake, and you can't think that way, right, Like, 295 00:14:54,764 --> 00:14:57,084 Speaker 1: if you made the correct fold, it's okay if you 296 00:14:57,164 --> 00:14:59,484 Speaker 1: hit it, Like, you can't think that way. But I 297 00:14:59,524 --> 00:15:01,924 Speaker 1: was like, huh, I was actually thinking about the butterfly 298 00:15:01,964 --> 00:15:04,404 Speaker 1: effect and kind of downstream effects. I was like, had 299 00:15:04,444 --> 00:15:07,204 Speaker 1: I called right, this guy would not have knocked out 300 00:15:07,244 --> 00:15:10,724 Speaker 1: all these other players, and so many other people's tournaments 301 00:15:11,044 --> 00:15:13,884 Speaker 1: would have been very, very different from that one hand. 302 00:15:14,284 --> 00:15:16,484 Speaker 1: And I mean that's true of so many decisions in 303 00:15:16,524 --> 00:15:19,364 Speaker 1: life obviously, but in poker you can actually track them. 304 00:15:19,644 --> 00:15:22,324 Speaker 1: So it's kind of funny, right in poker, you can track, like, 305 00:15:22,444 --> 00:15:24,964 Speaker 1: had this hand played out differently, you know, all of 306 00:15:25,004 --> 00:15:27,284 Speaker 1: these other things happen, and I think that that's just 307 00:15:27,324 --> 00:15:30,764 Speaker 1: a good to remember and also good not to dwell on, right, Like, yeah, 308 00:15:30,804 --> 00:15:33,524 Speaker 1: you know, that's life and that's the nature of randomness. 309 00:15:33,884 --> 00:15:37,124 Speaker 1: So yeah, Nate, we can wrap up the World Series, 310 00:15:37,124 --> 00:15:39,964 Speaker 1: and we'll wrap up next week after I actually finish 311 00:15:40,084 --> 00:15:43,404 Speaker 1: and we know who the main event winner is. Let's 312 00:15:43,444 --> 00:15:46,284 Speaker 1: take a break and then switch gears and talk about 313 00:15:46,284 --> 00:16:04,284 Speaker 1: something a little bit more serious. So, Nate, the last 314 00:16:04,364 --> 00:16:07,764 Speaker 1: few weeks, there's a name that's never really gone away, 315 00:16:07,884 --> 00:16:10,524 Speaker 1: but has been a little bit less in the air 316 00:16:10,844 --> 00:16:14,604 Speaker 1: and suddenly is back in the spotlight. Jeffrey Epstein. 317 00:16:15,004 --> 00:16:15,764 Speaker 2: Jeffrey Epstein. 318 00:16:15,964 --> 00:16:17,844 Speaker 1: We thought, we thought we were done. We thought we 319 00:16:17,844 --> 00:16:19,324 Speaker 1: were done, and we were not done. 320 00:16:19,524 --> 00:16:21,404 Speaker 2: There was a member of the New York State Assembly 321 00:16:21,484 --> 00:16:24,204 Speaker 2: named Harvey Epstein who was running in my legislative district. 322 00:16:24,244 --> 00:16:31,964 Speaker 1: That's a little bit of the most talked of fortunate. Okay, 323 00:16:32,164 --> 00:16:36,004 Speaker 1: so you know, Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide. I'm going to 324 00:16:36,044 --> 00:16:37,964 Speaker 1: put it in quote because we're going to be talking 325 00:16:38,004 --> 00:16:40,604 Speaker 1: about conspiracy theories, so I'm going to put it in 326 00:16:40,604 --> 00:16:42,884 Speaker 1: in quotation marks. But this is a conspiracy theory that 327 00:16:42,884 --> 00:16:45,964 Speaker 1: actually a lot of people believe in he committed suicide 328 00:16:45,964 --> 00:16:50,124 Speaker 1: in prison while awaiting trial on various charges of sex trafficking, 329 00:16:50,124 --> 00:16:54,404 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. His co conspirator, Gislen Maxwell, is 330 00:16:54,764 --> 00:16:58,284 Speaker 1: serving a prison sentence currently, I think twenty years. But 331 00:16:58,484 --> 00:17:02,124 Speaker 1: the Epstein files, right, the files that all of this 332 00:17:02,404 --> 00:17:06,524 Speaker 1: was built on, clients, video footage, et cetera, et cetera. 333 00:17:06,604 --> 00:17:09,164 Speaker 1: There's been talk that this exists, right, that there's like 334 00:17:09,204 --> 00:17:12,804 Speaker 1: this treasure trove of data that's been kept secret. And 335 00:17:12,844 --> 00:17:15,444 Speaker 1: one of the things that Donald Trump said is, We're 336 00:17:15,484 --> 00:17:17,324 Speaker 1: going to bring all these people to justice. We are 337 00:17:17,364 --> 00:17:20,844 Speaker 1: going to kind of bring the Epstein files to the light. 338 00:17:21,204 --> 00:17:25,004 Speaker 1: We're going to share all of this. And then all 339 00:17:25,004 --> 00:17:27,964 Speaker 1: of a sudden, no, there are no there's no there 340 00:17:27,964 --> 00:17:30,764 Speaker 1: are no client lists, there's nothing there. We should forget 341 00:17:30,804 --> 00:17:33,724 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein. No one cares about him, nothing's going to 342 00:17:33,764 --> 00:17:36,924 Speaker 1: be released, and so the statement's completely changed, and so 343 00:17:37,404 --> 00:17:40,564 Speaker 1: conspiracy theories are in the air and people think that 344 00:17:40,604 --> 00:17:43,204 Speaker 1: there's some massive cover up, and this is one of 345 00:17:43,204 --> 00:17:47,084 Speaker 1: those moments. And these moments are incredibly rare. Inn You 346 00:17:47,124 --> 00:17:49,484 Speaker 1: and I have talked about this before, where there seem 347 00:17:49,564 --> 00:17:52,324 Speaker 1: to be you know, Trump's supporters who are saying, wait, wait, 348 00:17:52,364 --> 00:17:55,004 Speaker 1: wait a second, what the hell? Right, we were promised 349 00:17:55,124 --> 00:17:59,884 Speaker 1: names and justice for these people who have committed sex 350 00:17:59,924 --> 00:18:03,684 Speaker 1: crimes against children, right, what's going on now? Why are 351 00:18:03,684 --> 00:18:06,084 Speaker 1: you telling us that there are no names? And so 352 00:18:06,164 --> 00:18:09,324 Speaker 1: this is one of those rare moments where people seem 353 00:18:09,324 --> 00:18:12,724 Speaker 1: to not be happy on the Republican side as well 354 00:18:12,764 --> 00:18:14,044 Speaker 1: as on the Democratic side. 355 00:18:14,524 --> 00:18:19,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, what's a conspiracy theory, Maria in your opinion, Well. 356 00:18:19,604 --> 00:18:22,004 Speaker 1: There are plenty of conspiracy theories in here. I mean, 357 00:18:22,044 --> 00:18:24,524 Speaker 1: one of the biggest ones is that, obviously, as Elon 358 00:18:24,644 --> 00:18:28,244 Speaker 1: Musk alleged after his falling out with Trump before his 359 00:18:28,324 --> 00:18:31,204 Speaker 1: reconciliation with Trump. Although now I think they've fallen out again. 360 00:18:31,364 --> 00:18:33,844 Speaker 1: I can't. I can't keep it straining. They're in, they're out, 361 00:18:34,324 --> 00:18:36,524 Speaker 1: they're in, they're out. But I think they're out right now. 362 00:18:36,564 --> 00:18:41,284 Speaker 1: But Elon Musk alleged Trump's name is in the files, 363 00:18:41,324 --> 00:18:43,804 Speaker 1: and not in a good way, because let's uh, let's 364 00:18:43,844 --> 00:18:46,044 Speaker 1: just caveat this for a second. So if your name 365 00:18:46,084 --> 00:18:48,444 Speaker 1: is in quote unquote the Epstein files, that doesn't actually 366 00:18:48,444 --> 00:18:51,404 Speaker 1: mean that you're implicated, right, The Epstein files is just 367 00:18:51,444 --> 00:18:56,724 Speaker 1: to catch all name for all of the evidence trial transcripts, 368 00:18:56,724 --> 00:18:59,484 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So you might have been deposed, right, 369 00:18:59,524 --> 00:19:01,764 Speaker 1: you might have been giving a statement, you might have 370 00:19:01,844 --> 00:19:03,924 Speaker 1: been There's there are a lot of ways your name 371 00:19:03,924 --> 00:19:06,324 Speaker 1: can end up in the Epstein files. But what Elon 372 00:19:06,444 --> 00:19:10,604 Speaker 1: Musk suggested alleged was that was tied up in it 373 00:19:10,684 --> 00:19:14,644 Speaker 1: in not in a deposition way, but in a much 374 00:19:14,684 --> 00:19:17,724 Speaker 1: more direct way. And so the biggest conspiracy theory might 375 00:19:17,764 --> 00:19:20,204 Speaker 1: be that, you know, Donald Trump does not want these 376 00:19:20,204 --> 00:19:23,284 Speaker 1: files released because they implicate him. Right, So that's I 377 00:19:23,324 --> 00:19:26,764 Speaker 1: think the biggest conspiracy theory Trump and other people who 378 00:19:26,804 --> 00:19:27,924 Speaker 1: are high up in the government. 379 00:19:28,204 --> 00:19:31,204 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I I'm not sure I love 380 00:19:31,244 --> 00:19:34,764 Speaker 2: the term conspiracy theory. It's like a kind of cousin 381 00:19:34,844 --> 00:19:38,724 Speaker 2: of misinformation, which is the term I don't like necessarily 382 00:19:38,884 --> 00:19:42,764 Speaker 2: and part because like some conspiracy theories like later proved 383 00:19:42,844 --> 00:19:47,444 Speaker 2: to be true or plausible, right, I mean, the Lablique 384 00:19:47,444 --> 00:19:51,404 Speaker 2: thesis of Covied origins is not generally accepted as the truth. 385 00:19:51,444 --> 00:19:54,804 Speaker 2: It's generally accepted though now by the scientific community in 386 00:19:54,804 --> 00:19:57,844 Speaker 2: most governments, is a plausible you know, fifty to fifty 387 00:19:58,044 --> 00:20:01,484 Speaker 2: or something theory, Right, Things like the Tuskegee experiment or 388 00:20:02,004 --> 00:20:05,564 Speaker 2: lower stakes more recent like you know Hunter Biden's laptop. 389 00:20:05,604 --> 00:20:08,204 Speaker 2: There's lots of stuff that gets labeled this way, and like, 390 00:20:08,204 --> 00:20:11,204 Speaker 2: why wouldn't why shouldn't you be a little suspicious of 391 00:20:11,684 --> 00:20:14,004 Speaker 2: whether Epstein really killed himselves? Right? Oh? 392 00:20:14,084 --> 00:20:16,124 Speaker 1: No, I mean that one for sure, that one I 393 00:20:16,444 --> 00:20:18,804 Speaker 1: actually am suspicious off as well. I think that a 394 00:20:18,844 --> 00:20:21,484 Speaker 1: lot of things get labeled conspiracy theory. I think conspiracy 395 00:20:21,524 --> 00:20:24,884 Speaker 1: theory is an incredibly useful term, but it can't get 396 00:20:24,924 --> 00:20:28,724 Speaker 1: thrown around on things that it doesn't actually fit. This 397 00:20:28,844 --> 00:20:30,884 Speaker 1: is the same argument I make with con artists when 398 00:20:30,884 --> 00:20:32,484 Speaker 1: people are like, oh, this is a con artist. That's 399 00:20:32,484 --> 00:20:33,804 Speaker 1: a con artist. I'm like, no, you need to be 400 00:20:33,844 --> 00:20:36,684 Speaker 1: specific in what a con artist is, right. A con 401 00:20:36,724 --> 00:20:39,044 Speaker 1: artist is an incredibly specific term, and you can't start 402 00:20:39,124 --> 00:20:42,284 Speaker 1: labeling all people con artists that you disagree with or 403 00:20:42,324 --> 00:20:45,204 Speaker 1: that you think our salesmen are, you know, doing something 404 00:20:45,244 --> 00:20:47,484 Speaker 1: that you think is a little bit icky, because at 405 00:20:47,484 --> 00:20:49,844 Speaker 1: that point, con artist stops meaning anything. And I think 406 00:20:49,884 --> 00:20:52,684 Speaker 1: that's the same is true of conspiracy theory. Nate, Have 407 00:20:53,244 --> 00:20:56,644 Speaker 1: I told you my favorite conspiracy theory joke about the 408 00:20:56,684 --> 00:20:59,004 Speaker 1: jfk assassination, Someone. 409 00:20:58,764 --> 00:21:01,044 Speaker 2: About God or yeah, go tell tell to the audience. 410 00:21:01,164 --> 00:21:08,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So you know, this guy dies and he's 411 00:21:08,444 --> 00:21:11,404 Speaker 1: kind of been an his entire life. He's been obsessed 412 00:21:11,404 --> 00:21:15,604 Speaker 1: with the jfk assassination and that's kind of his He 413 00:21:16,204 --> 00:21:18,684 Speaker 1: just wants to know. He's been digging and digging and digging. 414 00:21:19,004 --> 00:21:22,764 Speaker 1: And he gets to Heaven and he's at the pearly 415 00:21:22,804 --> 00:21:26,644 Speaker 1: gates and God says, you know, you have one question, 416 00:21:26,764 --> 00:21:30,564 Speaker 1: and I promise to answer it truthfully anything in the 417 00:21:30,604 --> 00:21:33,604 Speaker 1: world that you want to know. And he says, okay, yes, 418 00:21:33,644 --> 00:21:36,204 Speaker 1: I know exactly what I want to ask. Who killed Kennedy? 419 00:21:36,644 --> 00:21:39,324 Speaker 1: And God says, you know, it was Lee Harvey Oswald. 420 00:21:39,404 --> 00:21:42,404 Speaker 1: He was acting by himself, there were no co conspirators. 421 00:21:42,684 --> 00:21:45,644 Speaker 1: And the guy says, oh man, this thing goes further 422 00:21:45,724 --> 00:21:46,764 Speaker 1: up than I thought. 423 00:21:48,804 --> 00:21:49,724 Speaker 2: I've always loved that. 424 00:21:49,804 --> 00:21:54,484 Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I mean it's that joke just absolutely encapsulates 425 00:21:54,804 --> 00:21:58,204 Speaker 1: the way that conspiracy theorists' minds work that no matter 426 00:21:58,244 --> 00:22:00,964 Speaker 1: what evidence you present, no matter kind of what you 427 00:22:01,044 --> 00:22:05,844 Speaker 1: show them, once they believe something, they will go to 428 00:22:05,884 --> 00:22:08,044 Speaker 1: the end of the world to prove that that's true. 429 00:22:08,484 --> 00:22:12,684 Speaker 1: And you can't bring them out of that conspiratorial frame 430 00:22:12,724 --> 00:22:16,604 Speaker 1: of mind. So that's the distinction, right, where with something 431 00:22:16,764 --> 00:22:20,164 Speaker 1: like the COVID labliku. By the way, you know, people 432 00:22:20,284 --> 00:22:23,844 Speaker 1: were trying to discredit that theory and make it seem 433 00:22:23,884 --> 00:22:29,084 Speaker 1: like a conspiracy theory, but you know, as evidence mounted up, 434 00:22:29,364 --> 00:22:32,444 Speaker 1: it became less and less plausible to do that. So 435 00:22:33,324 --> 00:22:35,484 Speaker 1: you know, you have people on both sides of that, 436 00:22:35,524 --> 00:22:37,724 Speaker 1: including people who said it was definitely not a lablak 437 00:22:37,764 --> 00:22:40,244 Speaker 1: who did change their minds. So that's kind of a 438 00:22:40,804 --> 00:22:43,724 Speaker 1: little bit you know, I think a little bit of 439 00:22:43,724 --> 00:22:46,044 Speaker 1: a nuanced difference between before. 440 00:22:45,964 --> 00:22:48,284 Speaker 2: And some of them initially thought it was a lableak 441 00:22:48,284 --> 00:22:50,724 Speaker 2: and then changed their mind and then changed their back, right. 442 00:22:50,764 --> 00:22:53,444 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, this is a case where it's like, Okay, 443 00:22:53,444 --> 00:22:56,604 Speaker 2: what evidence do you have of like people conspiring to 444 00:22:56,684 --> 00:22:59,204 Speaker 2: manipulate the evidentiary record. In that case, there was actually 445 00:22:59,484 --> 00:23:02,644 Speaker 2: lots of like foid documents and things like that that 446 00:23:02,724 --> 00:23:06,084 Speaker 2: seemed to involve discourse. It was like not very scientific. Yeah, 447 00:23:06,284 --> 00:23:08,524 Speaker 2: I think one thing you have to like think about 448 00:23:08,684 --> 00:23:12,884 Speaker 2: is like who are the alleged co conspirators and how 449 00:23:12,924 --> 00:23:17,124 Speaker 2: plausible is it that like that they're all working in 450 00:23:17,204 --> 00:23:18,844 Speaker 2: cahoots with what you're. 451 00:23:18,804 --> 00:23:21,924 Speaker 1: Right, absolutely absolutely. I think I think that when you're 452 00:23:21,964 --> 00:23:24,804 Speaker 1: looking at conspiracy theories, one of the questions you have 453 00:23:24,884 --> 00:23:26,964 Speaker 1: to ask, and this is something that I think we 454 00:23:27,004 --> 00:23:29,724 Speaker 1: talk about a lot on the show, is incentives. Right, 455 00:23:30,204 --> 00:23:34,644 Speaker 1: what are the incentives here? Who has the incentive to 456 00:23:34,844 --> 00:23:37,524 Speaker 1: kind of cover this up? Is? Is it plausible? Right? 457 00:23:37,804 --> 00:23:38,204 Speaker 1: And why? 458 00:23:38,284 --> 00:23:38,444 Speaker 2: Right? 459 00:23:38,484 --> 00:23:40,564 Speaker 1: So, in the case of something like the COVID lovel Yeah, 460 00:23:40,604 --> 00:23:44,804 Speaker 1: the incentive structure was bad, and it was so that 461 00:23:44,884 --> 00:23:47,044 Speaker 1: makes it much more likely. In the case of a 462 00:23:47,124 --> 00:23:50,804 Speaker 1: JFK assassination, No, I mean, I'm sorry, Like, the incentive 463 00:23:50,844 --> 00:23:53,684 Speaker 1: structure was very different, right, it was the assassination of 464 00:23:53,764 --> 00:23:56,004 Speaker 1: a president. Like, everyone's incentives are aligned to try to 465 00:23:56,044 --> 00:23:58,964 Speaker 1: figure out what the hell happened. So, you know, those 466 00:23:59,004 --> 00:24:02,084 Speaker 1: are two incredibly different situations. Now, in the case of 467 00:24:02,244 --> 00:24:06,484 Speaker 1: something like Jeffrey Epstein the Epstein Files, it can get money, right, 468 00:24:06,564 --> 00:24:09,924 Speaker 1: because it's become clear that a lot of incredibly powerful 469 00:24:09,964 --> 00:24:16,604 Speaker 1: people were involved for years in what in Epstein's antics. 470 00:24:16,764 --> 00:24:18,564 Speaker 2: I mean, I've never really thought much about the Jeffrey 471 00:24:18,564 --> 00:24:22,804 Speaker 2: Epstein story until this Trump angle, I guess, right. I mean, look, 472 00:24:22,804 --> 00:24:26,044 Speaker 2: I do think on a basic level, when like when 473 00:24:26,164 --> 00:24:30,844 Speaker 2: people promised to reveal information and then a very circumspect 474 00:24:30,844 --> 00:24:34,564 Speaker 2: about it later. Then that's a very reasonable plug. You know, 475 00:24:34,844 --> 00:24:36,844 Speaker 2: if a guy my age wearing a hat probably not 476 00:24:36,844 --> 00:24:39,404 Speaker 2: that much underneath. Right, it's not a conspiracy theory. It's 477 00:24:39,444 --> 00:24:43,484 Speaker 2: like inference, human inference that normal people would make. Yeah, 478 00:24:43,564 --> 00:24:44,604 Speaker 2: And I mean it's like. 479 00:24:44,604 --> 00:24:46,724 Speaker 1: By the way, we do have evidence. But with Jeffrey 480 00:24:46,724 --> 00:24:49,884 Speaker 1: Epstein that he there was tons of evidence against him, 481 00:24:49,964 --> 00:24:53,364 Speaker 1: and very powerful forces blocked it from coming to trial 482 00:24:53,484 --> 00:24:56,564 Speaker 1: many many times until it finally did in twenty nineteen. Right, 483 00:24:56,604 --> 00:24:59,044 Speaker 1: there were a lot of attempts to prosecute him, a 484 00:24:59,084 --> 00:25:01,444 Speaker 1: lot of attempts to bring him to justice, and they 485 00:25:01,444 --> 00:25:04,204 Speaker 1: never went anywhere. So we know that there were a 486 00:25:04,244 --> 00:25:07,004 Speaker 1: lot of very powerful forces on his side for a 487 00:25:07,124 --> 00:25:09,724 Speaker 1: very very long time. So that's more evidence, just like 488 00:25:09,764 --> 00:25:10,324 Speaker 1: your hat night. 489 00:25:10,684 --> 00:25:12,124 Speaker 2: And I guess as I've gotten like older and a 490 00:25:12,124 --> 00:25:16,044 Speaker 2: bit wealthier, like I do think that, like you know, 491 00:25:16,204 --> 00:25:19,124 Speaker 2: powerful people, the circles are kind of small, I mean, 492 00:25:19,164 --> 00:25:22,564 Speaker 2: extremely powerful people, right, the circles are kind of small. 493 00:25:22,604 --> 00:25:27,044 Speaker 2: They kind of all know one another. Right. They can 494 00:25:27,084 --> 00:25:31,044 Speaker 2: be kind of high on their own supply or unscrupulous 495 00:25:31,124 --> 00:25:35,644 Speaker 2: in different ways, I think, Right, like, yeah, I don't know, 496 00:25:37,484 --> 00:25:39,244 Speaker 2: and you as to see when they fail, right, Like 497 00:25:39,284 --> 00:25:41,084 Speaker 2: in New York, we have a lot of rich people 498 00:25:41,124 --> 00:25:43,244 Speaker 2: who are very unhappy as a Roun Mamdanni who won 499 00:25:43,324 --> 00:25:47,204 Speaker 2: the primary, and are very unhappy that like all the 500 00:25:47,244 --> 00:25:50,324 Speaker 2: alternatives to him suck and have been rejected by voters, 501 00:25:50,324 --> 00:25:53,084 Speaker 2: and they are powerless. It's kind of fun to watch it, Like, no, 502 00:25:53,164 --> 00:25:55,284 Speaker 2: there's not really any toil. Let's get a right in 503 00:25:55,284 --> 00:25:57,764 Speaker 2: on the ballot. You can't really get people off the ballot, 504 00:25:58,164 --> 00:26:01,964 Speaker 2: but yeah, it's funny when the perfectable can't control everything. 505 00:26:02,364 --> 00:26:06,604 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I mean with this specific administration, given how 506 00:26:06,684 --> 00:26:11,484 Speaker 1: much information manipulation has to in place. I always you know, 507 00:26:11,604 --> 00:26:18,364 Speaker 1: I hate like because I'm so against conspiracy theory like thinking, 508 00:26:18,604 --> 00:26:21,444 Speaker 1: and I think it's such a pernicious kind of way 509 00:26:21,484 --> 00:26:25,084 Speaker 1: that our minds work because people are very susceptible, and 510 00:26:25,164 --> 00:26:27,284 Speaker 1: some people more than others. But our minds do get 511 00:26:27,324 --> 00:26:31,124 Speaker 1: susceptible to kind of conspiracy theory like thinking, because there's 512 00:26:31,164 --> 00:26:33,644 Speaker 1: a lot of things going on cognitively, right, Like the 513 00:26:33,724 --> 00:26:35,884 Speaker 1: human brain loves to see patterns, right, and loves to 514 00:26:35,924 --> 00:26:39,404 Speaker 1: find patterns where patterns don't exist. You know, it's something 515 00:26:39,444 --> 00:26:44,284 Speaker 1: that like we always do, or patterns seeking animals, and 516 00:26:44,324 --> 00:26:46,924 Speaker 1: that manifests themself in all sorts of ways. We like 517 00:26:47,004 --> 00:26:49,484 Speaker 1: cause and effect, right, we don't like uncertainty. We like 518 00:26:49,524 --> 00:26:51,764 Speaker 1: to tell stories. So there are all of these things 519 00:26:51,804 --> 00:26:57,084 Speaker 1: that predispose us to kind of falling for conspiracy's cognitive dissonance. 520 00:26:57,244 --> 00:26:59,884 Speaker 1: You know. That's kind of one of the original, kind 521 00:26:59,924 --> 00:27:03,684 Speaker 1: of original theories that explains a lot of conspiracy thinking 522 00:27:03,724 --> 00:27:07,364 Speaker 1: with Leon Festinger back in nineteen fifty. Now, I'm sure 523 00:27:07,404 --> 00:27:10,524 Speaker 1: you know this very famous story, right, the Alien cult 524 00:27:10,564 --> 00:27:15,804 Speaker 1: the Seekers. There was a woman, Dorothy Martin, who communicated 525 00:27:16,004 --> 00:27:21,204 Speaker 1: with alien civilizations, and she had a date that you know, 526 00:27:21,364 --> 00:27:24,004 Speaker 1: aliens were going to come and take all of these 527 00:27:24,244 --> 00:27:27,044 Speaker 1: faithful people with her. That everyone believed her. You know, 528 00:27:27,044 --> 00:27:29,484 Speaker 1: there was this big cult. The day came and went 529 00:27:29,764 --> 00:27:32,924 Speaker 1: and there were no aliens, and then she's like, oh, 530 00:27:32,964 --> 00:27:34,484 Speaker 1: you know, we got the dates wrong in this rod 531 00:27:34,524 --> 00:27:37,524 Speaker 1: and the cult didn't fall apart, right, They still believed her, right, 532 00:27:37,604 --> 00:27:39,724 Speaker 1: They were like, oh, okay, you know she's not lying. 533 00:27:39,764 --> 00:27:42,404 Speaker 1: She really does communicate. It was just other stuff and 534 00:27:42,444 --> 00:27:45,124 Speaker 1: you explain everything away. And that was kind of one 535 00:27:45,124 --> 00:27:49,884 Speaker 1: of the original manifestations that was studied in a serious 536 00:27:49,924 --> 00:27:52,644 Speaker 1: way about how the human brain is just capable of 537 00:27:52,684 --> 00:27:56,324 Speaker 1: just dismissing everything right and just telling its own story. 538 00:27:56,484 --> 00:27:58,364 Speaker 1: So this is all kind of a big aside to 539 00:27:58,364 --> 00:28:02,804 Speaker 1: say that I am very much against. As soon as 540 00:28:02,804 --> 00:28:07,004 Speaker 1: something is like a conspiracy theory, I want to try 541 00:28:07,004 --> 00:28:10,204 Speaker 1: to debunk it, right. But then sometimes you find yourself 542 00:28:10,244 --> 00:28:12,604 Speaker 1: being like, Okay, well this is what we were talking about, 543 00:28:12,604 --> 00:28:14,884 Speaker 1: Like with the COVID LABLA immediately I was like, no, 544 00:28:14,964 --> 00:28:17,524 Speaker 1: this seems actually like it might be plausible, right, Like 545 00:28:17,564 --> 00:28:19,564 Speaker 1: even back then, I was like, why are we dismissing 546 00:28:19,604 --> 00:28:22,924 Speaker 1: this right away? We have no evidence. There's so much uncertainty, 547 00:28:22,924 --> 00:28:26,364 Speaker 1: there's so much unknown, there's so much ambiguity. How can 548 00:28:26,404 --> 00:28:28,724 Speaker 1: you know for sure it was one or the other? Right? 549 00:28:28,764 --> 00:28:31,484 Speaker 1: You need to as a scientist, you need to entertain 550 00:28:31,524 --> 00:28:34,324 Speaker 1: all the possibilities before you get more evidence. And with 551 00:28:34,404 --> 00:28:37,404 Speaker 1: the Epstein files, like I actually have the same feeling 552 00:28:37,804 --> 00:28:40,164 Speaker 1: like wait, like why are we dismissing it one way 553 00:28:40,284 --> 00:28:43,484 Speaker 1: or the other? Like we need more evidence, we need 554 00:28:43,524 --> 00:28:45,604 Speaker 1: to know what's going on. And if you look at 555 00:28:45,604 --> 00:28:48,964 Speaker 1: the incentive structures, like I don't know, the incentive structures 556 00:28:49,004 --> 00:28:52,604 Speaker 1: are all out of whack here. Right, Maybe there's nothing there, 557 00:28:52,644 --> 00:28:54,684 Speaker 1: but maybe there is, And we can't just dismiss it. 558 00:28:55,124 --> 00:28:58,844 Speaker 1: We can't just say it's a conspiracy theory. Like it's 559 00:28:58,884 --> 00:29:01,564 Speaker 1: one of these things where there is this cloud of 560 00:29:01,724 --> 00:29:07,204 Speaker 1: uncertainty and ambiguity that hampers accurate decision making, accurate decision assessment. 561 00:29:07,444 --> 00:29:08,884 Speaker 1: And those are the moments where we need to be 562 00:29:08,884 --> 00:29:11,604 Speaker 1: careful and entertain all sides and not dismiss anyone as 563 00:29:11,644 --> 00:29:13,844 Speaker 1: conspiracy theorists as much as I hate to say it. 564 00:29:14,164 --> 00:29:16,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, I take an even more obvious example. You know, 565 00:29:17,044 --> 00:29:19,964 Speaker 2: there was a conspiracy I'll use that term among senior 566 00:29:20,004 --> 00:29:24,484 Speaker 2: White House officials to cover up Joe Biden's cognitive decline. Right, 567 00:29:24,564 --> 00:29:26,204 Speaker 2: And you would be called lots of names if you 568 00:29:26,364 --> 00:29:28,764 Speaker 2: kind of pointed that out. And there's an example of 569 00:29:28,804 --> 00:29:32,204 Speaker 2: where it was a very small circle, right, I mean, 570 00:29:32,244 --> 00:29:35,164 Speaker 2: like sometimes the signs of this are like pretty obvious, right, Like, 571 00:29:35,204 --> 00:29:39,164 Speaker 2: it seems like there's got to be some politically inconvenient 572 00:29:39,884 --> 00:29:42,284 Speaker 2: angle for Trump somewhere in the Epstein vials, right, don't 573 00:29:42,324 --> 00:29:43,964 Speaker 2: know if it's him, or when it's associates, or if 574 00:29:43,964 --> 00:29:47,284 Speaker 2: it's minor or super major or whatever else. Right, But 575 00:29:47,364 --> 00:29:49,924 Speaker 2: like that's the not just the reasonable for, but the 576 00:29:49,924 --> 00:29:53,804 Speaker 2: correct probabilistic inference from from something like that happening. 577 00:29:53,884 --> 00:29:56,204 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think given how all of a sudden, 578 00:29:56,244 --> 00:29:59,044 Speaker 1: you know, the total about face that we have from 579 00:29:59,084 --> 00:30:03,244 Speaker 1: the administration, that's just like one eighty. And this administration 580 00:30:03,284 --> 00:30:06,244 Speaker 1: pulls one eighties all the time right on very stupid things. 581 00:30:06,524 --> 00:30:09,284 Speaker 1: So in and of itself, it's kind of meaningless, but 582 00:30:09,404 --> 00:30:11,724 Speaker 1: there is a signal in there as well, because every 583 00:30:11,804 --> 00:30:15,524 Speaker 1: time they pull a one eighty, it's for politically expedient purposes. Right, 584 00:30:15,564 --> 00:30:17,284 Speaker 1: So when they pull one eighties on tariffs, when they 585 00:30:17,324 --> 00:30:20,404 Speaker 1: pull one eighties on immigration or whatever it is, it's 586 00:30:20,444 --> 00:30:24,724 Speaker 1: always because of some politically expedient reason. And so what 587 00:30:24,924 --> 00:30:29,444 Speaker 1: the easiest explanation here is that there's another politically expedient 588 00:30:29,484 --> 00:30:32,844 Speaker 1: reason why they all of a sudden say that there's 589 00:30:32,844 --> 00:30:35,204 Speaker 1: no information, there's nothing to be had, there's nothing to 590 00:30:35,204 --> 00:30:38,564 Speaker 1: be gained, and let's move on, and nobody cares about Epstein. 591 00:30:38,964 --> 00:30:42,164 Speaker 1: So political expedience is always and what's good for Trump, right, 592 00:30:42,204 --> 00:30:44,684 Speaker 1: what's good for number one is always the top reason. 593 00:30:44,724 --> 00:30:47,044 Speaker 1: And we've seen that his entire administration is very happy 594 00:30:47,044 --> 00:30:48,484 Speaker 1: to go along with whatever that is. 595 00:30:48,764 --> 00:30:52,844 Speaker 2: There's a three percent chance that Jeffrey Epstein is found 596 00:30:52,964 --> 00:30:59,084 Speaker 2: alive this year by deciding first coordinated polymarket Polymarke, are 597 00:30:59,164 --> 00:31:04,244 Speaker 2: you taking me under or the over? I'm taking the 598 00:31:04,364 --> 00:31:10,124 Speaker 2: under on that about a little one percent taking me 599 00:31:10,244 --> 00:31:10,724 Speaker 2: under on that. 600 00:31:12,444 --> 00:31:14,724 Speaker 1: Although I did just you know, I'm still in Vegas. 601 00:31:14,764 --> 00:31:16,604 Speaker 1: I did just see Elvis on the streets. 602 00:31:16,324 --> 00:31:20,484 Speaker 2: So okay, you know, so you never know, people come back. 603 00:31:20,324 --> 00:31:21,444 Speaker 1: From the dad all the time. 604 00:31:21,724 --> 00:31:23,404 Speaker 2: By the way, I'm a paid advisor to Polly Market, 605 00:31:23,444 --> 00:31:24,964 Speaker 2: you know, like the where they mentioned like the health 606 00:31:25,764 --> 00:31:28,364 Speaker 2: symptoms like really fast, Like I'm a Polly Market. It's 607 00:31:28,404 --> 00:31:31,004 Speaker 2: just like compress that in. We should compress that in 608 00:31:31,124 --> 00:31:33,724 Speaker 2: for all future episodes. But I do. I do, uh 609 00:31:34,284 --> 00:31:37,844 Speaker 2: work with them and receive income for that. Who's the 610 00:31:37,884 --> 00:31:41,804 Speaker 2: comedian who people say isn't dead. I don't remember Andy Kaufman. 611 00:31:42,004 --> 00:31:43,164 Speaker 2: Andy Kaufen Yah, yeah. 612 00:31:43,084 --> 00:31:47,364 Speaker 1: Yeah, Andy Kaufman. Yeap, Yes, that is correct. There are 613 00:31:47,404 --> 00:31:50,884 Speaker 1: lots of people, you know, Jimmy Hoffa might pop up 614 00:31:50,924 --> 00:31:53,324 Speaker 1: at any moment, although I think Jimmy hoff is probably 615 00:31:53,404 --> 00:31:56,164 Speaker 1: on the bottom of Lake Mead or in the desert somewhere. 616 00:31:56,244 --> 00:31:58,524 Speaker 1: But yeah, there are lots of people who might come 617 00:31:58,604 --> 00:32:01,364 Speaker 1: back to life, but conspiracy theories, you know, they're they're 618 00:32:01,404 --> 00:32:05,044 Speaker 1: here to stay, were incredibly susceptible to them. In general, 619 00:32:05,164 --> 00:32:08,284 Speaker 1: we hear on Risky Business, do not endorse conspiracy theory 620 00:32:08,484 --> 00:32:11,724 Speaker 1: like thinking, but you need to learn how to separate 621 00:32:12,244 --> 00:32:16,524 Speaker 1: things that you know are actual conspiracy theories from people 622 00:32:17,564 --> 00:32:22,804 Speaker 1: voicing opinions that could be labeled conspiracy theories because someone 623 00:32:22,844 --> 00:32:25,804 Speaker 1: thinks it's inconvenient and it's a nuanced distinction, and it's 624 00:32:26,004 --> 00:32:30,764 Speaker 1: very difficult to make it accurately because some people would say, well, 625 00:32:31,244 --> 00:32:35,524 Speaker 1: you know jfk assassination, people are incentivized against me. Well, no, 626 00:32:35,764 --> 00:32:38,204 Speaker 1: like you, you really do need to look at the 627 00:32:38,324 --> 00:32:41,564 Speaker 1: actual incentives and try to be a little bit more 628 00:32:41,644 --> 00:32:44,924 Speaker 1: rational about that to try to make those determinations. 629 00:32:45,484 --> 00:32:48,204 Speaker 2: People will use the phrase like no evidence, right, and 630 00:32:48,324 --> 00:32:49,364 Speaker 2: that can be a loaded phrase. 631 00:32:49,444 --> 00:32:49,564 Speaker 1: Right. 632 00:32:49,884 --> 00:32:54,964 Speaker 2: No evidence often means no proof. But in many of 633 00:32:55,084 --> 00:32:58,844 Speaker 2: these mysteries, nothing is firmly proven, Like you know, on 634 00:32:58,884 --> 00:33:03,044 Speaker 2: the COVID origins, nothing's been firmly proven for example, right, 635 00:33:03,124 --> 00:33:07,364 Speaker 2: and so like, So take on different valances when it's 636 00:33:07,364 --> 00:33:10,484 Speaker 2: a liberal or conservative cause. What can be frustrating with 637 00:33:10,604 --> 00:33:13,164 Speaker 2: certain types of stories. It's like, you know, who do 638 00:33:13,284 --> 00:33:19,404 Speaker 2: I really trust to report on like the Epstein case. 639 00:33:19,564 --> 00:33:22,084 Speaker 2: I'm not quite I'm not quite sure. I'm not I'm 640 00:33:22,124 --> 00:33:25,724 Speaker 2: not sure. If I devoided to vote a week, if 641 00:33:25,764 --> 00:33:28,084 Speaker 2: I decide to like become semi obsessed with the Epstein case, 642 00:33:28,084 --> 00:33:29,204 Speaker 2: I don't know what I conclude. 643 00:33:29,284 --> 00:33:29,404 Speaker 1: Right. 644 00:33:29,564 --> 00:33:31,404 Speaker 2: It's one of those things that like you almost have 645 00:33:31,484 --> 00:33:33,324 Speaker 2: to turn up the news coverage because it's like, Okay, 646 00:33:33,364 --> 00:33:36,084 Speaker 2: do I want to go down a rabbit hole here 647 00:33:36,324 --> 00:33:39,604 Speaker 2: and like whose claims are trustworthy? And who's a grifter 648 00:33:40,004 --> 00:33:42,284 Speaker 2: and and who's not? And that can be that can 649 00:33:42,364 --> 00:33:47,924 Speaker 2: be difficult. Let's take a quick break, and when we return, 650 00:33:48,044 --> 00:34:09,164 Speaker 2: how will the Epstein rift affect Trump's coalition? Look, I 651 00:34:09,484 --> 00:34:12,244 Speaker 2: think the political implications are interesting. It's maybe the closest 652 00:34:12,284 --> 00:34:18,644 Speaker 2: we've gotten to like for the MAGA base where this 653 00:34:18,804 --> 00:34:21,644 Speaker 2: is an issue where I mean Trump campaigned at various 654 00:34:21,684 --> 00:34:24,364 Speaker 2: times on opening up the Epstein files, right, and like, 655 00:34:24,724 --> 00:34:26,204 Speaker 2: so you actually see in the MAGA world, or at 656 00:34:26,244 --> 00:34:29,084 Speaker 2: least according to these people who interact with it more 657 00:34:29,124 --> 00:34:32,804 Speaker 2: than I do, you actually do see some descent. Trump 658 00:34:32,884 --> 00:34:36,044 Speaker 2: got ratio that means a negative response on his own 659 00:34:36,084 --> 00:34:40,484 Speaker 2: social media platform, like truth social and so it's interesting, right, 660 00:34:40,564 --> 00:34:43,604 Speaker 2: It's interesting. It's a popcorn kind of sitting on the 661 00:34:43,644 --> 00:34:45,804 Speaker 2: sideline story for me. 662 00:34:45,964 --> 00:34:49,044 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm actually, I'm actually this is something that 663 00:34:49,124 --> 00:34:51,724 Speaker 1: we haven't talked about yet. But I'm curious about your 664 00:34:51,844 --> 00:34:55,964 Speaker 1: thoughts on potential since this is like a popcorn story. 665 00:34:56,364 --> 00:34:59,204 Speaker 1: Do you think it's a popcorn story for Trump's base 666 00:34:59,444 --> 00:35:02,284 Speaker 1: or do you think it might have some more lasting impact. 667 00:35:02,404 --> 00:35:05,164 Speaker 1: So at the beginning, I kind of implied that a 668 00:35:05,204 --> 00:35:08,124 Speaker 1: lot of Trump supporters are not happy right with this, 669 00:35:08,244 --> 00:35:11,684 Speaker 1: about with this particular about face, right that they were 670 00:35:11,764 --> 00:35:14,484 Speaker 1: promised that, you know, there'd be justice and the Epstein files, 671 00:35:14,524 --> 00:35:16,964 Speaker 1: and now they're told no Epstein files, and they're like, 672 00:35:17,004 --> 00:35:20,284 Speaker 1: what's going on? You know, we want these child sex 673 00:35:20,444 --> 00:35:23,844 Speaker 1: criminals brought to justice. We've seen you know, a lot 674 00:35:23,884 --> 00:35:27,844 Speaker 1: of quote unquote rifts in Trump's base that then disappear 675 00:35:28,244 --> 00:35:31,044 Speaker 1: because then they're like, no, no, okay, fine, we love 676 00:35:31,644 --> 00:35:33,884 Speaker 1: we love Donald Trump and everything's going to be fine. 677 00:35:34,204 --> 00:35:37,564 Speaker 1: Do you think that this one has potential to be 678 00:35:37,684 --> 00:35:39,364 Speaker 1: more lasting or do you think it's also going to 679 00:35:39,444 --> 00:35:42,244 Speaker 1: be a blip and then all of the Trump supporters 680 00:35:42,244 --> 00:35:45,084 Speaker 1: are going to recoalesce and forget all about it and 681 00:35:45,204 --> 00:35:47,604 Speaker 1: move on. Because, as we've already talked about many many 682 00:35:47,644 --> 00:35:50,404 Speaker 1: times on the show, memory short and people love Trump. 683 00:35:51,244 --> 00:35:53,244 Speaker 2: One thing I not is like the incentives are a 684 00:35:53,244 --> 00:35:56,364 Speaker 2: little bit different now that Trump no longer has anything 685 00:35:56,404 --> 00:35:58,884 Speaker 2: to run for. This is, unless he's trying to violent 686 00:35:58,924 --> 00:36:01,684 Speaker 2: the constitution. I guess could run for any non president office. 687 00:36:01,724 --> 00:36:04,484 Speaker 2: It could become, you know, mayor of New York, mayor 688 00:36:04,724 --> 00:36:07,164 Speaker 2: primaries or un or whatever. Right, I sh wouldn't be 689 00:36:07,164 --> 00:36:08,044 Speaker 2: a primary, most. 690 00:36:07,964 --> 00:36:09,204 Speaker 1: Likely mayor of New York. 691 00:36:09,284 --> 00:36:16,404 Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, uh. It could be a win win, right, 692 00:36:16,484 --> 00:36:19,044 Speaker 2: Maybe you get him out of the presidency. Maybe Bill 693 00:36:19,084 --> 00:36:21,764 Speaker 2: Lackman's like, I know a guy, He's a smart businessman, right, 694 00:36:22,084 --> 00:36:27,444 Speaker 2: politically moderate, you know, well known celebrity entrepreneur, right real 695 00:36:27,564 --> 00:36:31,924 Speaker 2: estate magnate. Donald Trump writing campaign for mayor of New York. Sorry, 696 00:36:31,964 --> 00:36:32,724 Speaker 2: what which question, Maria? 697 00:36:33,044 --> 00:36:36,564 Speaker 1: No, look gonna how's this gonna work out for? Do 698 00:36:36,684 --> 00:36:39,204 Speaker 1: we think that this is actually going to have any 699 00:36:39,284 --> 00:36:42,564 Speaker 1: sort of lasting impact on the Trump based on his coalitionhow? Yeah? 700 00:36:42,564 --> 00:36:42,804 Speaker 2: Looky? 701 00:36:42,884 --> 00:36:43,884 Speaker 1: Is it gonna fizzle out? Again? 702 00:36:45,324 --> 00:36:46,844 Speaker 2: I think it could be a little self for as 703 00:36:46,884 --> 00:36:49,284 Speaker 2: Trump gets more unpopular and gets further removed from the 704 00:36:49,364 --> 00:36:51,404 Speaker 2: election and does have another election. I think you could 705 00:36:51,404 --> 00:36:55,164 Speaker 2: see like people on the right more willing to challenge 706 00:36:55,244 --> 00:36:59,164 Speaker 2: him potentially, Right, they got their big beautiful bill pass, 707 00:36:59,204 --> 00:37:01,444 Speaker 2: a lot of us being done through executive order. Otherwise, 708 00:37:01,564 --> 00:37:02,964 Speaker 2: like not like there's that much good to go on 709 00:37:03,084 --> 00:37:06,844 Speaker 2: through Congress if his siplitical standing is is damaged or 710 00:37:06,884 --> 00:37:08,084 Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm not like one of these like 711 00:37:09,124 --> 00:37:13,124 Speaker 2: right wing group check whisper types exactly. It seems just 712 00:37:13,244 --> 00:37:15,484 Speaker 2: in the news coverage that like that you are seeing 713 00:37:15,524 --> 00:37:16,724 Speaker 2: rifts that you haven't seen before. 714 00:37:17,604 --> 00:37:20,804 Speaker 1: It does seem that way, And I'm actually I'm going 715 00:37:20,884 --> 00:37:23,444 Speaker 1: to be very curious to watch this because one of 716 00:37:23,484 --> 00:37:26,164 Speaker 1: the phenomena that we've talked about and that we've observed 717 00:37:26,604 --> 00:37:29,324 Speaker 1: many times here is that so far there has been 718 00:37:29,404 --> 00:37:32,844 Speaker 1: nothing lasting right. So far, there have been no rifts 719 00:37:32,884 --> 00:37:37,564 Speaker 1: that have actually become rifts in that kind of maga 720 00:37:37,804 --> 00:37:41,844 Speaker 1: core coalition. Right. We've seen we've seen moments where we're like, oh, 721 00:37:42,004 --> 00:37:44,044 Speaker 1: like are people going to turn against Trump for this? Oh, 722 00:37:44,044 --> 00:37:45,484 Speaker 1: are they going to turn against Trump for this? And 723 00:37:45,564 --> 00:37:48,684 Speaker 1: it hasn't happened. Right, They've kind of forgotten and they've 724 00:37:50,044 --> 00:37:53,284 Speaker 1: told the story in different ways cognitive dissonance dissonance reduction 725 00:37:53,444 --> 00:37:56,284 Speaker 1: at its best. You know, the aliens are still coming. 726 00:37:56,444 --> 00:37:59,804 Speaker 1: It's just the date has changed. But it does like 727 00:38:00,084 --> 00:38:03,284 Speaker 1: right now, at least in this stage of the news cycle. 728 00:38:03,644 --> 00:38:05,804 Speaker 1: And it's so you know, it's so tough to know 729 00:38:05,964 --> 00:38:07,804 Speaker 1: how this will play out long term, but it does 730 00:38:07,844 --> 00:38:10,884 Speaker 1: seem like this might be like it might be building 731 00:38:11,004 --> 00:38:13,404 Speaker 1: up right, And maybe that's just wishful thinking. I have 732 00:38:13,524 --> 00:38:16,284 Speaker 1: no idea, but I'm very, very curious to see how 733 00:38:16,964 --> 00:38:20,204 Speaker 1: it will turn out and whether this is a breaking 734 00:38:20,284 --> 00:38:23,164 Speaker 1: point or not. You know, I would I would probably 735 00:38:23,204 --> 00:38:25,484 Speaker 1: take the or not side of that bet, just because 736 00:38:25,924 --> 00:38:29,524 Speaker 1: that's the way that you know, historically it's it's played out. 737 00:38:29,604 --> 00:38:32,204 Speaker 1: I think that you know, in a few weeks we'll 738 00:38:32,604 --> 00:38:35,164 Speaker 1: look back at the segment and laugh and say, yeah, 739 00:38:35,204 --> 00:38:37,964 Speaker 1: of course, everyone's forgotten all about it. But as of now, 740 00:38:38,004 --> 00:38:39,724 Speaker 1: it seems like there is at least a non zero 741 00:38:39,884 --> 00:38:45,164 Speaker 1: chance that this might have some lasting coalition changes, especially 742 00:38:45,284 --> 00:38:50,364 Speaker 1: as other people might start rising up to try to 743 00:38:50,604 --> 00:38:53,524 Speaker 1: not challenge Trump but establish themselves as people who might 744 00:38:54,004 --> 00:38:56,964 Speaker 1: kind of be party leaders going forward. As we get 745 00:38:57,444 --> 00:39:01,044 Speaker 1: deeper into the presidency, closer to the midterm elections closer 746 00:39:01,124 --> 00:39:04,444 Speaker 1: to other incentives that might matter to the electorate. 747 00:39:05,244 --> 00:39:07,564 Speaker 2: Right, I think I've thought enough about Jeffrey Episteine for 748 00:39:07,564 --> 00:39:10,964 Speaker 2: your day. You want to call the show, Let's do it. 749 00:39:11,284 --> 00:39:13,524 Speaker 1: Thanks everyone for following along. Good luck everyone. 750 00:39:13,844 --> 00:39:17,044 Speaker 2: Like the world series of Poker of this podcast is ending, 751 00:39:19,764 --> 00:39:21,964 Speaker 2: not permanently this episode, yes, just for the week, just 752 00:39:22,044 --> 00:39:22,484 Speaker 2: for the week. 753 00:39:23,124 --> 00:39:30,724 Speaker 1: Yeah, let us know what you think of the show. 754 00:39:31,044 --> 00:39:34,644 Speaker 1: Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. 755 00:39:35,564 --> 00:39:37,764 Speaker 1: And by the way, if you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, 756 00:39:37,844 --> 00:39:40,364 Speaker 1: we have some bonus content for you that's coming up 757 00:39:40,564 --> 00:39:41,484 Speaker 1: right after the credits. 758 00:39:41,884 --> 00:39:45,084 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 759 00:39:45,324 --> 00:39:47,444 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price 760 00:39:47,844 --> 00:39:50,484 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and ad 761 00:39:50,644 --> 00:39:53,244 Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 762 00:39:53,644 --> 00:39:56,724 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova. 763 00:39:56,404 --> 00:39:58,684 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 764 00:39:58,804 --> 00:40:02,924 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 765 00:40:02,924 --> 00:40:06,644 Speaker 2: by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer is Sonia Gerwit. Sally 766 00:40:06,764 --> 00:40:09,324 Speaker 2: Helm is our editor, and our executive producer is Jacob gold. 767 00:40:09,484 --> 00:40:11,404 Speaker 2: Scene mixing by Sarah Bruguer. 768 00:40:12,044 --> 00:40:20,724 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for tuning in mm HM