WEBVTT - Virus Concerns, Biden's Economic Performance 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.600 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.200 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.000 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well Kitty Gratfield and Tim 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.960 Stanobeck live in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Katie, 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:38.560 we talked about the World Economic Forum postponing its annual 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:40.880 meeting in Davos that had been slated for January, this 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.400 amid fresh waves of coronavirus across Switzerland and the globe. 0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:46.839 Just as you and I were speaking, just now, or 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:49.839 as Doug was speaking, I got a notification that more 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.800 events in my own life have been canceled in the 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:55.000 coming days. And it certainly makes sense that we're starting 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:57.640 to see that absolutely, And I mean there were the 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:02.040 headlines crossing the terminal this morning. That's cool. Closing surging too. 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:05.600 So it's conferences, it's schools, it's workplaces, it's everywhere. All 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:07.640 of this happening when we expect millions of Americans to 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:10.840 be traveling to see one another for the holidays coming up. 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:13.680 Let's talk to about it with Dr Peter alperand vice 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:17.360 president of doc Simity. It's a platform for medical professionals. 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:19.880 Dr Alburn joins us once again on the phone from Austin, Texas. 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:24.600 Dr Alburn, how how are things in Austin, Texas right now? Uh? Well, 0:01:24.640 --> 0:01:27.320 thanks for having me on the broadcast. You know, things 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:30.160 in Austin are going pretty well. Um, we are seeing 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:35.160 an upticking cases, but in general people are being careful. Um. 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:37.080 I think people are you know what to do in 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:40.480 terms of masking and uh yeah, it's it's not the 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.240 Christmas we had all hoped for. Um, but you've got 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:45.479 to be vigilant. We'll help us understand what it looks 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:46.760 like on the ground there because I think a lot 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:48.600 of people are really stuck in their universes right now. 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.040 And if you live in New York City, here's what 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.040 you know. You have to wait in line for hours 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.000 to get a COVID test, and if you want to 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.360 get a rapid test, you have to go to you 0:01:57.400 --> 0:01:59.000 try to get one at a pharmacy and they're all 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:02.120 sold out. Are you seeing in Austin right now? Yeah, 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:05.200 we're definitely seeing pressure on the on the places where 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:07.160 you would go to get tests, as well as the 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:10.359 home test that you would get in UM in the 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:12.919 pharmacy as well as you know, and a lot of 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:15.440 people have gone online those are also very much sold 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:18.160 out so bad I was going to ask for me 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:23.000 and send him send him my way. Now, I'm just kidding, doctor. 0:02:23.080 --> 0:02:26.440 I am curious to hear your perspective on the sort 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:30.639 of inevitability feeling that is percolating, at least in New 0:02:30.720 --> 0:02:33.560 York City. I mean, I've heard time and time again 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:37.280 over the past few weeks that, oh, well, I'm going 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:39.760 to get it anyway. And I mean does the data 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:42.160 that we have on this variant stack up against that? 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:45.000 I mean we've heard a lot about how much more 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:50.799 easily transmissible it is, for example, Yeah, I think, um, 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.680 you know, inevitability is a pretty strong word. I'm here's 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:55.519 what we know right, we know that on thecron is 0:02:55.560 --> 0:03:01.160 indeed very contagious and very easily transmissible. UM. The early 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:04.480 data seems to suggest that there is the potential that 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.359 the disease caused by omicron might be a little bit 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:10.920 more mild than some of the previous variants, particularly delta. 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:13.440 But the the answer is, you know, this variant, we've 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:15.600 only really discovered a couple of weeks ago, and we 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:18.840 don't know a ton about it. UM. I think inevitability 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.959 is strong. Um is probably too strong, because I think 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:23.560 we all need to do the things that we know 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:28.000 that are helpful. Wearing masks, you know, when you're in 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:30.160 a tight group, trying to social distance to the best 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:32.520 that you can. And please go out and get your 0:03:32.520 --> 0:03:36.480 booster shot or your first vaccine if you haven't had one. Yeah, 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.200 and we're all we are seeing here in the United 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.440 States a lot of people going out and getting those boosters, 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.520 which is some encouraging news. Hey, you mentioned South Africa 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:45.520 and the idea that we we learned about this a 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.080 couple of weeks ago. UM, we did learn today at 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:51.840 one pm New York time that infections are slowing in 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:55.880 South Africa. Daily coronavirus cases they're almost having amid a 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.560 fourth wave of infections fueled by the omicron variant. How 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:00.400 should we read into that and if course, with the 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:03.800 caveat that it's pretty much summer in South Africa, so 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:06.839 it's a different environment than in the United States. Yeah, 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.360 I think we have to be really careful with that data. 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:13.960 I think that, um, first of all, the population in 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:16.640 terms of the total number of people vaccinated is very different. 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:18.720 The amount of time they're spending outdoors, given that at 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.040 summer versus winter is different. Um. And I think that, 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.120 you know, you've got to be really careful about getting 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:27.200 whipsode in multiple directions with the data here, UM, I 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:29.159 think it takes some time for us to put together 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:32.080 that information. It's certainly um. You know, we see all 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:34.440 sorts of discussion on our network as well, with physicians 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:36.960 talking about the latest and greatest data on on our 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.000 on our news feed that we that we monitor. But 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.760 I think the bottom line is is that this is 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:43.479 a time for us to go back to what we 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:45.920 know is no works, which is being you know, just 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.760 being careful and doing the things that we know to 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:51.680 be true and not necessarily you know, I don't know, 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:54.200 no one' davocating for the complete return to the lockdowns 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:57.520 like we had in April of last year. But we 0:04:57.600 --> 0:04:59.920 just need to be careful, so maybe not at can 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.400 fleet return to lockdown. But you know, as some and 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:04.159 I were just talking about, you are starting to see 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.240 a lot of events get canceled, whether it's you know, 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:11.080 school closing or companies telling their workers that they can 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.240 return home and work from home. I mean, would you 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.240 expect to see more of that type of behavior in 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:20.039 the coming weeks, especially since we are talking on December 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.799 twenty and a lot of people have holiday travel planned. Yeah, 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:26.560 I think we probably will see more of that. You know, 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:30.080 school closures is such a complicated and fraud issue. Um, 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.800 you know, parents aren't justifiably exasperated and um, you know 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:37.040 it's really tough out there, uh for for those families. 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.680 But I do think you're going to see probably no 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:43.800 slightly restrictions around large gatherings of big events where you 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:45.880 could see that that would be the first thing. Um. 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:48.080 You know, again, like I said, school closures are complicated. 0:05:48.600 --> 0:05:50.400 Dr Albn, just in the last forty seconds we have 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.640 what advice can you give for getting together safely with 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:57.040 family and friends and loved ones during the holidays. Yeah, 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:01.240 you know, it is important to see your family and UM, 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.039 we know that it's going to happen. So my recommendations 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:06.240 are to do like I said, do the things we 0:06:06.279 --> 0:06:08.880 know to be true. Please, please go get vaccinated if 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.640 you haven't, If you can test yourself for corona before 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:15.400 you have that gathering of everybody, that's important, particularly if 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:18.800 you're going to be seeing your your grandparents or other 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.400 people who might be UM you know, more at risk 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:24.680 from a severe infection UM. And you know, try to 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.839 limit it so that it's not a gathering of people. 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:30.120 But maybe you know eight to ten. All right, some 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:32.719 very good advice as we do head into the final 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.520 week before Christmas and of course New Year's as well. 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:38.000 Dr Peter Alperin, we love having you on the program, 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:40.760 Vice president of dox Simity. It's a digital platform for 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.000 medical professionals. He's joining us on the phone from Austin, Texas. 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:47.520 President Biden's job approval ratings stands at just above forty 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:50.320 three percent. That's according to an average of approval poles 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.720 from eight In fact, Biden is less popular at this 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:57.680 point in his presidency than any other president except President Trump. 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:00.880 Going all the way back to President Jimmy Harder. But 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:04.040 here's the thing. America's economy improved more in Joe Biden's 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:06.719 first twelve months than any other president during the past 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:09.880 fifty years, so writes Bloomberg Editor in Chief Emeritus Matt 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:13.840 Winkler in a column for Bloomberg Opinion. Matt Winkler joins 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.480 us now live in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Matt, 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:19.800 Great to have you you with us. What were the 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:23.000 metrics that you used to measure President Biden's first year 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.960 in office? Great to be with you and their ten 0:07:26.800 --> 0:07:30.080 And they're known to all of us, gross domestic product, 0:07:30.160 --> 0:07:34.880 profit growth s and P five hundred performance, consumer credit, 0:07:35.000 --> 0:07:41.760 non farm payrolls, manufacturing jobs, business productivity, the dollars appreciation, 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:47.840 and the SMP relative to UH the benchmarks around the world, 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:53.239 as well as per capita disposable income. And so, Matt, 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.240 I'd love to hear your thoughts on that mismatch that 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:58.240 if you know, you look at those measures, you just 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.640 lied out that the economy is doing really well. But 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:06.320 yet President Joe Biden's approval ratings not as hot. I mean, 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.600 does that all just boil down to inflation or what's 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:12.280 going on. Well, you know what's so often missing in 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:18.280 the day to day reporting from everywhere is context, and uh, 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:22.160 this is the context which is the most important, you 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:26.040 could argue subject in our lives is the economy. And 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:32.120 given that we are in unprecedented circumstances with COVID nineteen, 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:37.439 context is easily misplaced or just not available. So if 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:40.160 one wanted to understand, okay, where did we come from 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:44.560 since Biden was inaugurated, probably the best way to do it, 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:47.160 which is what we did at Bloomberg with my colleague Shenpei, 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:49.800 is take a look at all of the measures of 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:53.720 the economy that are most relevant, give them equal waiting, 0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:57.400 and say, how did he do? Now? What motivated us 0:08:57.440 --> 0:09:00.760 to do that? We did get right away in the 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:06.120 Biden administration a very rigorous vaccination program which did a 0:09:06.160 --> 0:09:09.840 lot of good you could say, in the first three 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:11.880 or four months of the year. And then on top 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:15.560 of that, there was the unprecedented American Relief Act, which 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:18.880 cut the poverty rate in half and put you know, 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.200 thirty billion dollars into American households. So you look at 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:25.679 those two things, and those were policy initiatives, What did 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:31.040 the economy do and as uh you noted, Biden comes 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:34.360 out one or two, number one or number two in 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:36.880 the ranking all the way back to Carter saved for 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:40.880 per capita disposable income and it's not even close. He's 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.800 way ahead of everybody. You know. The final thing is 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:48.479 that since you mentioned inflation, uh, and we're talking about context. 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:53.000 You know, when everybody talks about inflation, nobody mentions the 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:57.520 market doesn't agree with them. The bond market is saying, no, 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.880 we still think it's transitory. The simplest context is to 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.840 just say the yield on the benchmark ten year treasury 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:10.040 is still fluctuating, way below one point seven percent. And 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:13.600 you know, back in the seventies, when inflation was very high, 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:16.760 the yield, whether it was a tenure or a thirty year, 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.840 was over twelve. So we're not there yet. The people 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:22.600 with the most at stake and the bond market are 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:25.720 saying the Biden economy, so far, so good. So we 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.600 have the context for for what happened in one and 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:31.880 the benchmarks for what is all of this portend though 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:35.200 for two, especially on a day like today going into 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.760 New Year, where we you know, have Senator Joe Mansion yesterday, 0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:42.319 essentially torpedoing President Biden's Build Back Better program, as well 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:46.960 as rising coronavirus cases throughout the country. COVID nineteen is, 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:51.920 without a doubt, the variable that is going to probably 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:55.760 befuddle us most because we still don't understand everything there 0:10:55.840 --> 0:11:00.480 is to know about the pandemic. Having said that, even 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:06.240 with this new variant, fewer people are dying if they 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:09.080 are vaccinated. That's a fact. We know that, and so 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:13.520 that's cause for some hope. The other part of this 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:18.160 is that the Infrastructure Act, which was a bipartisan piece 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:22.439 of legislation, is going to benefit the job market, is 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:27.480 going to benefit municipalities, UH, states everywhere coast to coast, 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:30.360 north to south, east to west, as far as the 0:11:30.400 --> 0:11:33.920 eye can see. It's not gonna abate anytime soon. In fact, 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.880 it's just gonna get going in twenty two. So, uh, 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.320 those are some good things that should keep things going 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:43.080 in as far as the Build Back Better, Biden himself said, look, 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.000 I'm not done with this. I'm going to come back 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:49.160 to it in twenty two. Uh. Larry Summers told David Weston, 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:51.880 I think a week ago he thought that whatever does 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:56.640 emerge from Build Back Better, whatever you know, Uh, politics 0:11:56.640 --> 0:12:00.280 are involved, it will be better not worse. So, uh, 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.079 those are some things we can anticipate. And now you've 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.959 got some great stats on here on corporate America. One 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:08.320 that jumped out to me is that profit margins are 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:13.040 around fifteen percent, which is the widest sense. How is 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.120 the consumer doing in all of this? Though? Consumer is 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:19.880 doing great, and we know that because consumer credit is 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:23.280 with Biden number one of all the presidents. Now what 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:26.480 that means is that Americans are are obviously feeling good, 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.360 otherwise they wouldn't be taking on credit. One of the 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:32.720 reasons why they are taking on credit is because interest rates, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:38.080 even with the acceleration of inflation, are still relatively low 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:42.440 when you compare where interest rates have been over the 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:46.880 past fifty years. The reason why corporate America is booming 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.360 and doing as well as it is is because the 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:54.760 debt ratios, that's what you were referring to, which makes 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:58.840 it possible for companies to get more out of literally 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.120 their borrowing than they ever have before. So their profit 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.640 margins are much bigger, fatter than it goes all the 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:11.800 way back to. So, um, you know, the consumer and uh, 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.520 corporate America both are in a very good place right 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:18.520 now from a historical perspective. It's so interesting though, because 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.680 we don't we don't see this playing out politically. Either 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.440 Democrats aren't doing a great job of of of hammering 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.600 this message, or Republicans are doing a really good job 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:30.280 of essentially comparing President Biden to President Carter. Who. Well, 0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.599 that's our that's our job. It's called news judgment, and 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.600 journalists are supposed to do more than just simply report 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.480 what people say and what they do. They're supposed to 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:43.720 provide the context and say here's what it means. And unfortunately, 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:47.559 our profession just isn't there, which is why we are 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:49.920 doing this column. So what what would you I mean, 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.240 what would you like to see from from news media 0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:57.520 when reporting a ren reporting on the president? Well, I think, 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.520 for one, every time we bring up inflation, it would 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:03.640 be nice to see a parenthetical clause everywhere that says yes, 0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:07.080 But the market doesn't agree with that. And the market 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:11.480 is twenty nine trillion of US Treasury securities, you know, 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.360 it's a big market. It's the market that tells every 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.480 other market what to do. That's that's a start. At 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:23.320 least that provides some context and understanding that. Why Janet Yellen, 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:27.240 for one, the Treasury Secretary, who is arguably, you know, 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.680 one of the smartest people to be in that position, 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:34.360 has said that most of the inflation that we are 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:38.760 experiencing still is related to what you would call supply 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:45.080 shortcomings bottlenecks that result from UH people being immobilized by 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:50.240 the pandemic UM. So, yeah, I mean I think that 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:52.840 it's very important. Is something we do at Bloomberg, which 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:57.800 is what does the market tell you that is relevant 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:02.200 to whatever people are saying politically. Oftentimes the market is 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:06.720 saying something that's very different from what the politics are. 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.440 And you know, you can expect politicians to say whatever 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:12.720 they can because it suits their interests. But the market 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:16.880 is not ideological, it's not political. It's just looking for 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:21.040 relative value. And I'm curious. I mean, you mentioned the 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:23.600 bond market in terms of what the market is saying. Clearly, 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.440 the bond market, when you look at those long term rates, 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.760 doesn't seem too stressed about inflation. When you look across 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.000 the asset picture and you look at the stock market, 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:35.640 do you see a similar message there? Yeah, for the 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.560 same reason. Look, when you have interest rates as low 0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:43.560 as we have UH stocks have been the right investment 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:48.440 that's been proven over the past decade or more, and UM, 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:55.320 unless that changes, that equation changes, UM, it's likely that 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:58.680 stocks will continue to hold their value. Now. One of 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:03.800 the other parts of this is, remember when began, very 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:08.480 few people thought we would have the vaccine that would 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:12.720 prevent UH infection of COVID nineteen, and yet we did 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:16.960 have not just one, but several vaccines. That's called innovation. 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:22.360 Innovation is very much a part of the stock market. UM. 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:27.080 That's where you've seen companies simply become household names practically 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.640 overnight because they've created value where there was not. You know, 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:34.200 whether it's a Twilio, which is relatively recent, or it's 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:38.160 a Tesla or even going back further Amazon, all of 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.800 these companies are creating value, and that's why the stock 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:46.400 market is so attractive. The column is Biden's economic performance 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.560 is unbeatable. Matt Winkler as editor in Chief emeritus for 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.600 Bloomberg News. He wrote this piece for Bloomberg Opinion. Be 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:54.680 sure to check it out on the Bloomberg terminal and 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.320 at Bloomberg dot com. Well. In recent years, we've seen 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:02.760 US organizations that have ties to China come under increased scrutiny. 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:06.240 Among those in recent years and especially in recent weeks 0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:10.880 has been Ray Dalio, of course, and Bridgewater Associates. We're 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.679 joining us now to talk all about Dahlio's China fascination 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:18.000 and when it started. Is Andy Brown, editorial director at 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.280 Bloomberg New Economy. He joins us on the phone from 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.920 New York City. Andy, before we get into the history here, 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:28.560 why are we talking about this right now? I think 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:33.480 why we're talking about this right now is because Ray Dahio, 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:39.320 perhaps more than other Wall Street billionaires, has remained um 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:44.840 very publicly and very volubly pro China in his views 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:49.320 at a time when political sentiment in Washington, d c. 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:54.120 And public sentiment in the United States more broadly has 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:59.200 turned decisively anti China. And so it makes it seem 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:04.800 as though he is somewhat out of step. And so Andy, 0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:09.080 let's dig into that. Why Why is Dahlio, like you say, 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:13.080 still probably publicly pro China when a lot of you know, 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:17.199 his his peers on Wall Street have taken or at 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:21.280 least backed away from their support. Well, I think most 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:26.000 fundamentally because China is where the money is and where 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:31.600 the opportunities are now for Wall Street giants like Bridgewater, 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:35.440 like black Stone, black Rock and and so on. I mean, 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:39.160 there's there's been a lot of very negative focus on 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:43.439 the collapsing price of Chinese equities as presidentigen Thing cracks 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:48.240 down on property and big tech platforms and after school 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:51.080 tutoring and so on. But you know, don't forget the 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:56.760 Chinese economy actually is motoring along quite well. Reason that 0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:01.840 it's reasonably healthy. It's attracted, um, it actually attracted more 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:06.119 attracts more direct foreign investment in the United States now, 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.639 UM companies are investing more and more. Despite all the 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:15.280 talk about supply chains retreating from China, US companies continue 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:18.440 to invest there um and in the Chinese companies were 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:22.000 investing more in the United States. So, you know, big picture, 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:25.159 there are opportunities plus and here's the decisive things for 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:31.360 Wolf Street. China needs the technical expertise. Doesn't necessarily need 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:33.280 the money. He's got plenty of money, but what it 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:42.200 needs is expertise to help develop a sophisticated financial uh industry. Well, Andy, 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:44.479 there's a great new piece published today on the Bluebirg 0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:48.080 Terminal by our colleague Catherine Burton that talks about Dahio's 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.880 China fascination and that it predates ties to Beijing's billions, 0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.600 that is the money that Bridgewater handles for China. So 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:58.199 take us back years ago, decades ago to really understand 0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:02.600 Dahlio's connection to China. Yeah. Look, I got to say 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:09.600 that there's nothing particularly unusual in Ray Dalio's history with China. 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.159 I mean, it's pretty much par for the course. Is 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:17.480 this is what Wall Street billionaires do. Um Over the years, 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:23.080 they've invested millions and millions of dollars and charitable good 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:27.560 works in China. Ray Dalio himself apparently invests something like, 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:29.399 according to our stories, something like a hundred and fifty 0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:34.280 million dollars. Well, you know, Steve Schwartzman, founder of black Stone, 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:38.080 kicked in a hundred million dollars of his own money 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:42.240 into a scholarship program at Chinhua University, which is President 0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:46.640 che Ching Ping's almintor um. You know, the Gates Foundation 0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:50.040 over the years has put in four hundred million dollars 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:52.359 to fight disease in China. I mean, this is just 0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:56.000 what people, what billionaires do in order to win influence, 0:20:56.040 --> 0:21:00.520 one might say, curry favor with with Chinese uh, leaders 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:04.200 and Andy, like you just laid out, I mean across 0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:08.600 Wall Street, both firms and billionaires courting China. What does 0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:11.600 that mean for their relationship with Washington? Because if you 0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:14.280 think of the climate in both parties right now, it 0:21:14.400 --> 0:21:19.080 seems like the sentiment against you know, money flowing into China, 0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:23.359 it's pretty negative right now. Yeah, it sort of puts 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:28.400 Wall Street on a collision course with Washington. I mean, 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:34.560 the real hoops in Washington d C. Essentially believe that 0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:38.159 pumping money into China is giving comfort and support to 0:21:38.200 --> 0:21:41.600 the enemy. Now, the Biden administration, of course, wouldn't go 0:21:41.720 --> 0:21:44.960 nearly um that far, although it is moving in a 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:51.840 generally that direction. It inherited tariffs, trade tariffs on China, 0:21:52.000 --> 0:21:57.160 it inherited sanctions from the Trump administration, and indeed it's 0:21:57.200 --> 0:21:59.560 adding to them. Just the other day, at blacklisted the 0:21:59.560 --> 0:22:03.679 company d j I, which is the world's largest manufacturer 0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:07.800 of all drones. So increasingly there is a tension between 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:12.440 wool Street's ambition for China and Washington's ambition to put 0:22:12.720 --> 0:22:15.680 economic relations with China into a ball. Andy, Well, we 0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:16.800 have you. I don't know if it's gonna be the 0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:18.160 last time we have you before the end of the year. 0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:19.919 Just in the last thirty seconds we have with you, 0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:22.119 what is the main thing we need to watch between 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:27.040 the US and China going into Look, the big issue 0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:31.080 I think is is Taiwan. Um that you have a 0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:35.320 lot of uh military activity now in the Taiwan straight 0:22:35.440 --> 0:22:40.160 and both the Chinese and US leaders to recognize that, um, 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:44.399 it's dangerous and UM there need to be Godrail. Andy Brown, 0:22:44.560 --> 0:22:48.399 editorial director at Bloomberg New Economy, knows all things China, 0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:51.480 spent years living in China. Andy, thank you so much 0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:54.600 for taking the time and joining us on Bloomberg Business Week. 0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:04.679 Oh no, no, no, this is not a honey Please, 0:23:04.800 --> 0:23:15.639 I'll do the riding revels to good question. This is 0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:22.679 the drive to the Globe on Bloomberg Radio, where we 0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:24.520 are just under ten minutes away from the close of 0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:28.680 trading on this Monday, December one, Tim Statue and Kitty 0:23:28.680 --> 0:23:31.920 grabbed up live in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Let's 0:23:31.920 --> 0:23:34.520 get into it with Michael Sheldon, executive director and chief 0:23:34.560 --> 0:23:37.359 investment Officer at High Tower r d M Financial Group. 0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:40.160 He joins us on the phone from Westport, Connecticut. High 0:23:40.200 --> 0:23:42.800 Tower r d M Financial Group has one point two 0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:47.040 billion dollars in assets under management that as of October one. Michael, 0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:50.480 how are you good? Thanks very much, appreciate your having me. 0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:52.800