1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 4 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 2: We have a lot to talk about today with Brett Ruin, 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: of course, the president and CEO of the Global Situation Room, 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 2: a long time diplomat in Republican and democratic white houses. 9 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 2: I will mention he joins us now at the top 10 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: of the program here on the Wednesday edition. 11 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 3: Brett. It's great to see you. 12 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 2: I wanted to ask you, and I'm going to about 13 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: the President's decision to turn on weapons for Ukraine, this 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: reversal that we saw this week. But I have to 15 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,959 Speaker 2: ask you just to start off about trade. What does 16 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 2: a thirty percent tariff on Libya and Iraq mean for 17 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 2: those countries? 18 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 3: And why are we spending time writing these letters? 19 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 4: Well, I'll tell you what it means, Joe for businesses, 20 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 4: because these are coming out piecemeal. It's like every day, 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 4: you know, he's pulling out that marker and deciding, you 22 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 4: know where in the world He's going to send a 23 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 4: letter off to as though you know, we didn't have 24 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 4: other forms of communication. Is though we didn't have a 25 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 4: global strategy. And if you're a business leader, as many 26 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 4: on this radio program will be listening as business leaders, look, 27 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 4: I'm not just trading with one country or even one region. 28 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 4: So the notion that the United States of America doesn't 29 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 4: have a trade strategy that Trump, you know, essentially says 30 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 4: I'm going to put out a letter and that is 31 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 4: a trade deal. It's folly. 32 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 5: Joe. 33 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: Well, I get where you're coming from on this. The 34 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 2: market seems to agree to the point that it's it's 35 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 2: not even paying attention now, and the uncertainty is real. 36 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: We just extended things once again. But what are we 37 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: buying from Libya and Iraq that we need to put 38 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 2: a thirty percent tariff on? 39 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 4: Yeah? Look, I mean a rock Olivia, both oil producing countries. 40 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 4: I think the key question here, Joe, is whether or 41 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 4: not this new deadline, you know, after we were told 42 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 4: that July ninth was going to be a you know, 43 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 4: no budgeting, no fudging, this was the date. You know, 44 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 4: Trump quite frankly, is making it really hard for businesses 45 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 4: American businesses and American workers to figure out how the 46 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 4: heck to I make any plans because he's, you know, 47 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 4: for lack of a better way of describing it, so 48 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 4: fixated on the reality program that he is programming instead 49 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 4: of understanding what does it take to actually run a business. 50 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 4: And you know, bring up the fifty percent tariffs on copper, Well, 51 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 4: we American companies need copper to build buildings in America, 52 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 4: to make products in America, so we can't just turn 53 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 4: a light switch on it and have more capacity to 54 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 4: create copper in the US. 55 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 2: We're going to talk a little later this hour with 56 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: Mike Mclone at Bloomberg Intelligence about the copper story. It 57 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 2: is pulling back a bit after that huge pop yesterday. 58 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 3: Brett. 59 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: There's uncertainty about trade, and there's also uncertainty about geopolitics. 60 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 2: That's nothing new. Of course, you and I talk about 61 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 2: it every time you're on the air, but in this case, 62 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: there are big questions about the Middle East following our 63 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 2: strikes against Iran and cooperation with Israel. Benjaminett Yahoo decided 64 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 2: to extend his stay in Washington this week. A second 65 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 2: day of meetings with President Trump at the White House, 66 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: said to be focused on a ceasefire in Gaza. We 67 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 2: heard Steve Whitkoff talk about it yesterday, a potential sixty 68 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 2: day ceasefire, just like Joe Biden was talking about over 69 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: a year ago. There's also the matter of Iran. And 70 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: when you see Benjaminett and Yahoo two nights in a 71 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 2: row showing up at the driveway entrance of the West Wing, 72 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 2: so photographers can't see him coming and going meetings behind 73 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: closed doors, no readout from the administration. 74 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: What's going on here? 75 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's interesting because Trump is obviously desperately 76 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 4: trying to get a deal, any deal, because none of 77 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 4: them have worked out so far, including that ceasefire deal 78 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 4: that he negotiated along with Biden's team back in January. 79 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 4: And look, I mean it is also a really challenging 80 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 4: environment for Trump just broadly in the Middle East. He 81 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 4: made one might say, the rash, the reckless decision to 82 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 4: strike inside a Ran, to strike those nuclear facilities. But 83 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 4: we don't have a strategy, Joe. What's the strategy, whether 84 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 4: it's with Israel, whether it's with Iran. And I think 85 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 4: that's leaving a lot of questions, a lot of open space. Obviously, 86 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 4: Net Niau's sticking around to try to figure out some 87 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 4: sort of agreement, some sort of announcement that they can 88 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 4: put forward to say, well, on Gaza or on a run, 89 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 4: We're going to at least agree to the following principles. 90 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 4: But the substance matters to Joe. As you mentioned, I'm 91 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 4: a recovering diplomat and I haven't seen a whole lot 92 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 4: of substance on the table yet. 93 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 2: Interesting do you think that there's another strike against Iran 94 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 2: being planned right now? 95 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 4: You know, Trump has said he's going to give diplomas 96 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 4: a chance to do its work. This obviously another example, 97 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 4: you know, the first one being when Costum Solo money 98 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 4: was taken out by Trump in his first term. The 99 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 4: Iranians really did pull their punches. I think similarly now 100 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 4: we're seeing them pull their punches. 101 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 6: This is a. 102 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 4: Window, that's what we would call, you know, in diplomatic terms, 103 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 4: and opportunity. So if Trump wants to avail himself of that, 104 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 4: he ought to and he ought to see if he 105 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 4: can get something close to the old jcpoway that iron 106 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 4: nuclear deal with intrusive inspections, with true ability to ensure 107 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 4: that Iran isn't going to be able to reconstitute its 108 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 4: nuclear program. Obviously, Nettyahu's got a different agenda and he's 109 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 4: going to push Trump for a harder line. Hopefully, you know, 110 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 4: the US interests prevailed this. 111 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 2: Let's talk about his agenda for Ukraine, because the President 112 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 2: is upset with Vladimir Putin, as he made clear in 113 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 2: the cabinet meeting yesterday. He's reversed at least someone's decision. 114 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 2: Apparently Pete Hegsath's decision on weapons for Ukraine. 115 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: Listened to Donald Trump yesterday. 116 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 7: That was a war that should have ever happened, and 117 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 7: a lot of people are dying, and it should end. 118 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 7: And I don't know, we get we get a lot 119 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 7: of thrown at us by Putin for you want to 120 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 7: know the truth. It's very nice all the time, but 121 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 7: it turns out to be meaningless. 122 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 2: Here we go having to bleep the President of the 123 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: United States again, Brett, I don't know if that ever 124 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 2: happened when you were working in the White House. 125 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 3: But talk to me about this decision. 126 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 2: What it means for the Secretary of Defense, who, at 127 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 2: least you read the tip sheets around here, is on 128 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 2: thin ice. After making a decision, the President did not 129 00:06:57,960 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 2: sign off on. 130 00:06:59,640 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 6: Yeah. 131 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 4: One thing you learn on the National Security Council staff 132 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 4: is you got to know what are your authorities, what 133 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 4: do you have to coordinate or at least inform others of. 134 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 6: And the fact that. 135 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 4: Hegsith made this consequential decision I Am cutting off the 136 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 4: Ukrainians from these necessary, desperately needed defensive capabilities without even 137 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 4: informing the National Security Advisor, who also happens to be 138 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 4: the Secretary of State, is just shocking. It's misspractice and 139 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 4: I think Hegseth is going to pay a price for 140 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 4: this because we are now seeing successive issues when it 141 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 4: comes to the safety of when it comes to the 142 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 4: national interest of the United States. You can't continue to 143 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: make these errors. Obviously was embarrassing yesterday in the cabinet room, 144 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 4: Trump is essentially dressing him down as he's sitting right 145 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 4: next to him. You could see John Radcliffe, the CIA director, 146 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 4: sort of smirking over in behind Hegsith. And at the 147 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 4: end of the day, look, Hegsith has made these decisions 148 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 4: which are going to embolden Trump if he rather in 149 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 4: bolden putin, if he believes that he with this summer offensive, 150 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 4: can make in roads that he can push Trump to 151 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 4: pull back on some of those defensive capabilities. But let's 152 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 4: hope Trump has made the call. When I was with 153 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 4: him in NATO, he certainly seemed to be supportive of 154 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 4: Zelenski and you create defense. 155 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 3: Brett. 156 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: It's great to have you back, reb brewin President's CEO 157 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 2: Global Situation Room with us here on Balance of Power. 158 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg. 159 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 160 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 161 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 162 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 163 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 164 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 2: It is the ninth of July. This is when the 165 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,439 Speaker 2: deals were supposed to be in play. We're now, of course, 166 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: looking ahead to August with a lot of questions about 167 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 2: what these letters are going to lead to. 168 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 8: Yeah, August first is the date where tariffs will go 169 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 8: into effect. The President, at least for now, contending that 170 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 8: that date will not change. But what could change is 171 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 8: the tariff rates countries are facing if they are willing to, 172 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 8: in the President's words, lower their tariff and non tariff 173 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,439 Speaker 8: barriers and open their markets to the US. It's seven 174 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 8: new countries that got letters today. The seventh just hit 175 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,959 Speaker 8: a thirty percent tariff on Sri Lanka. But of the 176 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 8: seven in total we're talking about here, Joe, it equates 177 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 8: for less than twenty billion dollars in imports to the 178 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 8: United States. So you have to ask what exactly the 179 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 8: point is. 180 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 2: That's right, how much we're actually buying from Libya, Iraq 181 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 2: and some of the others here at hand. It's an 182 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 2: interesting moment here in this conversation that we're going to 183 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: talk about ahead with Bloomberg White House correspondent Josh wing Grove. 184 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 2: He's been really leading the charge on the tariff coverage here, 185 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 2: asking so many questions, Kaylee, in these encounters with the 186 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 2: president's difficult to get clear answers here. 187 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 3: And we'll review some of this with. 188 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,079 Speaker 2: Heather Bouchet, from the prior administry economic advisor to former 189 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 2: President Joe Biden. 190 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 8: Yeah, interested to hear her thoughts as well on what 191 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 8: we heard from President Trump today Regarding the Fed SHARE's 192 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,319 Speaker 8: Jerome Powell, he believes the current FED funds rate is 193 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 8: about three hundred basis points too high. We keep ratcheting 194 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 8: that a number of the cut needed higher and higher. 195 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 8: So we'll get into all of that this hour, but 196 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 8: we begin, as always with the check on the markets, 197 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 8: and for that we turned to Charlie Pellet up in 198 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 8: New York, j I thank. 199 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 9: You very much, good daty of both. We have got 200 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 9: the down, the S and P, NEZ Stack all advancing 201 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 9: fifty nine minutes to go and tell the latest FOMC minutes. 202 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 9: We've got the S and P pushing higher, now up 203 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 9: by about fifteen points, that is a gain of three 204 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 9: tents and one percent. The now up fifty four, up 205 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 9: by about one tenth of one percent. Nez Stack up 206 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 9: one hundred and twenty three, now hire by about six 207 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 9: tenths of one percent, our MAGS seven index rallying by 208 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:54,079 Speaker 9: one percent, an advance in several big tech names, spurring 209 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 9: a rebound in stocks, in Nvidia briefly hitting four trillion dollars, 210 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 9: the first company in history to achieve that milestone. Right now, 211 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 9: we do have in Nvidia at just about three point 212 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 9: nine nine to five billion, the S and P five 213 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 9: hundred indecks up by thirteen gain there of two tents 214 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 9: of one percent. We got the now up forty three, 215 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 9: up one tenth, ASDAK again up by six tenths of 216 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 9: one percent. In Nvidia shares by the way, they're surging 217 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 9: one point nine percent, Tenure four point three six percent, 218 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 9: the two year three point eight seven percent, and Spot 219 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 9: Gold up nine dollars the ounce thirty three eleven, while 220 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 9: West Texas Intermedia crewed up six tens of one percent 221 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 9: WTI sixty eight seventy two. 222 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 3: A barrel on crude oil. 223 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,200 Speaker 9: Murk has agreed to buy respiratory drug maker Verona Farmer 224 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 9: for around ten billion dollars as part of its ongoing 225 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 9: search for ways to fill the key trude sized hole 226 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 9: that will emerge over the next few years. Shares of 227 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 9: Verona they're surging now by twenty point six percent, recapping, 228 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 9: in Vidia up two percent, s and p up fourteen 229 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 9: up two tents of one percent, And back we go 230 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 9: to Washington. Balance of power continues once again, your hosts, 231 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 9: Joe Matthew and Kaylee Lines. 232 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 2: All right, Charlie Pellett, thank you so much watching Wall 233 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 2: Street for us in New York, and we'll get back 234 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: to Charlie for more on the Wednesday trade a little 235 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 2: bit later on. It has been quite the item to 236 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 2: be watching in Vidia today. We've got our eyes on 237 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 2: copper as well, pulling back from the news yesterday a 238 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: fifty percent tariff on copper assuming that takes effect in August. 239 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 2: Shares of Freeport mac Moran relaxing as well. But Kaylee, 240 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 2: we're looking at a new batch of letters. As we 241 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 2: were discussing here. We've got seven so far today and 242 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 2: the President promise another ten. 243 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 3: How are we doing on the count. 244 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 8: I think we're at twenty one in total of you 245 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 8: count the fourteen from Monday as well, but he also 246 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:45,079 Speaker 8: said more could come this afternoon, so we can't necessarily 247 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 8: let our guard down. But when we consider the seven 248 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 8: that we got today, we're looking at a twenty percent 249 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 8: tariff on goods for the Philippines, twenty five for Brunei 250 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:57,079 Speaker 8: and Moldova, thirty for Algeria, a rock, Libya. 251 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 10: And Sri Lanka. 252 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 8: Take all those countries together, the amount that we imported 253 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 8: from them last year, it was less than twenty billion 254 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 8: dollars worth of goods. 255 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 2: So you wonder what's going on because people thought we'd 256 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 2: be talking about trade deals with the likes of India, 257 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: Japan and others that are not on this list. Of course, 258 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,679 Speaker 2: Japan was called out with its own letter on its 259 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 2: twenty five percent tariff, But there's no rhyme or reason 260 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 2: to the timing on all of these, it seems. 261 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 6: Yeah. 262 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 8: So let's try to get some more insight now and 263 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 8: turn to josh Win Grove, who of course covers the 264 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 8: White House for us here at Bloomberg. He's with us 265 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 8: in our Washington, d C. Studio. So, Josh, when we 266 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 8: consider the countries that were learning about their relevance, frankly 267 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 8: in terms of the aggregate trade that they do with 268 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 8: the United States, how should we be reading into this 269 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 8: when the President suggested it wasn't just tariff letters that 270 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:42,719 Speaker 8: were going to hit this week, but deals, and we've 271 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 8: heard of no such deals yet. 272 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 11: Well, I know Joe loves libbyan suits. I'm sorry those 273 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 11: are up thirty percent. 274 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 3: Thank you for noticing. 275 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 11: They seem to be doing this regionally as they go 276 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,319 Speaker 11: through the about five disent countries. They did that yesterday. 277 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 11: We're expecting another match this afternoon. We don't know how 278 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 11: many as they go through. Of course, the big fish 279 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 11: hanging out there as the EU have done anything on that, 280 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 11: so or waiting to see what happens there. But right now, 281 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,440 Speaker 11: you know, Trump is deflecting the criticism that his ninety 282 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 11: days and ninety deals have never materialized by saying these 283 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 11: are deals. He's just reissuing these numbers. And I think 284 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 11: it's important to remember if you were not watching on Monday, 285 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 11: or you know, had other things on the go, the 286 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 11: letters are fundamentally a delay. That's what they're doing. There's 287 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 11: this is fireworks above a delay. He's extending to August first, 288 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 11: and then allegedly won't move it again, although he said 289 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 11: that twelve hours after indicating he might, and so potentially 290 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 11: he could change his mind again. But the most recent 291 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 11: statement is August first is firm. So these are the 292 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 11: latest threats. These numbers are in line with the April 293 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 11: second threats that he made earlier. They're just kind of 294 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 11: pushing them to you know, the nearest multiple of five, 295 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 11: right exactly. And then from there they do appear to 296 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 11: be like grouping them regionally to some extent. But the 297 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 11: White House is offered literally nothing publicly by the way 298 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 11: of explaining how coming to these numbers. So the initial 299 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 11: numbers were, you know, a very crude formula on trade deficits. 300 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 3: These ones are just seem to be plucking this out 301 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 3: of these short What do we. 302 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 11: Yes is literally as good as buying and where they're coming. 303 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 2: From a good exercise. What do we import from Branai? 304 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: What are we putting tariffs? That's a great question, I 305 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 2: don't I mean, does this seem strange? The collection of 306 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 2: company countries that we're hearing about today. 307 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 11: Well, the way they came up with the formula captured 308 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 11: because it was focusing on trade deficits. It captured a 309 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 11: lot of lower wage manufacturers of consumer goods. And those 310 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 11: are not countries that they've been focusing talks on. So 311 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 11: the letters are being more focused on the countries that 312 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 11: they haven't been having talks in with the notable exception 313 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 11: of course of Japan and South Korea. 314 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 3: And he began with so as the president, smaller fish 315 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 3: by design. In other words, letters the same thing as 316 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 3: a deal. 317 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 11: Letter is the same thing as a deal. Now the 318 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 11: letters are all pro forma and they include invitations to 319 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 11: invest we'll see uh, and of course also to negotiate, 320 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 11: and so that might still happen. Trump seems to be 321 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 11: holding open the door for some kind of deal. But 322 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 11: if you are Brunei, for instance, or they be or 323 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 11: a rock or one of the countries listed in the 324 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 11: last forty eight hours. You know, you maybe don't have 325 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 11: a lot of bit more incentive than you did on 326 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 11: April third or April tenth to really come to the 327 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 11: table and make concessions, in part because of those low 328 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 11: trade volumes we talk about. But we're watching to see 329 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 11: what do the South Koreans do, what do the Japanese do. 330 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 11: They've got some important elections coming up later this month 331 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 11: that you know is politically complicating things one would imagine. 332 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 11: And then, of course that EU situation that's really hanging 333 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 11: out there. Remember China was also in this group. It 334 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 11: has been sort of pulled out from that. We're looking 335 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 11: forward to that, meaning that we don't know where it is, 336 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 11: or at least I don't know yet where it is. 337 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 11: Next month with Greer Bess and Lutnik and their Chinese counterparts, 338 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 11: we'll see where that goes. EU run is really hanging 339 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 11: in the air well. 340 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 8: So it's one thing to consider the kind of country 341 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 8: level talks and tariffs. It's another to consider the sectoral tariffs. 342 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 8: The President yesterday was talking about potentially two hundred percent 343 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 8: tariff on pharma, though that may be out a year 344 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 8: or further to allow time for those supply chains to 345 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 8: come to the US. No such time, it seems, is 346 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 8: going to be allowed for copper, though the suggestion is 347 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 8: that too could hit if not end of this month 348 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:08,159 Speaker 8: on August. 349 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 11: First, that's right Secretary Latin saying, and then coming weeks 350 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 11: on copper. We're waiting to see the text on that. 351 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 11: That one seems pretty biked. He had talked about twenty 352 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 11: five percent tariff on copper, but of course he imposed 353 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 11: twenty five percent tariff on steel and aluminum and then 354 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 11: doubled it to fifty and it seems like he's doing 355 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 11: the same thing with copper, where we're going to land 356 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 11: at fifty percent. Copper is also sort of small volumes 357 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 11: and concentrated on a particular handful of countries, so maybe 358 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 11: there's a transfer some kind of deal there. But Trump 359 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 11: has been fixated on this for a while. On pharma, 360 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 11: the timeline there is so important, right. Trump talked about 361 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 11: twelve or eighteen months leeway. I believe it was Lutnik 362 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 11: who said two years, so that's way down the line. 363 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 11: But he's talking about a big numbers. That one appears 364 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 11: to be, at least for now, more bark than bite, 365 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 11: whereas with copper we're expecting it imminently. Of course, the 366 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 11: big question is that semiconductor one, not only when that's coming, 367 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,120 Speaker 11: what rate it will be, but how widely they will 368 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 11: define semiconductors. You know, is that a full net even 369 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 11: with a chipin' it? Because that is a lot of stuff. 370 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 11: And then we're talking about a tariff on every phone, computer, television, 371 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 11: you know, every fun thing you buy a best buy. 372 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 2: I know this is out of left field, but if 373 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 2: you listen to that entire cabinet meeting, the last fifteen 374 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 2: minutes or so, we're about the interior decorating in the 375 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: Cabinet room and throughout the White House that the President 376 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 2: was taking personal credit for and was deeply involved in 377 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 2: touring those in the room through the presidential portraits, complete 378 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 2: with his own kind of summary of what each president 379 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 2: was known for, the gilding that we saw in some areas, 380 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 2: the frames, the lamps, the medallions that he had added. 381 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 3: And you wonder. 382 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 2: About his worldview from inside the White House when he 383 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 2: talks about America being in the Gilded Age, another Golden Age, 384 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 2: or make America great again, is this not informed by 385 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 2: his actual surroundings inside the mansion. 386 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 11: Well, let me add, if you open the curtains behind 387 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:58,920 Speaker 11: him that you're looking at, you would see a rose 388 00:18:58,960 --> 00:18:59,919 Speaker 11: garden that's being torn up. 389 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, what do you make of it? 390 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 11: He's making multiple his stamp on it. Well, I don't. 391 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 11: President Biden did not fix gold to the fire He didn't. 392 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 11: President Trump is a fixed gold to the fireplaces. He's 393 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 11: making it look more and more like mar A Lago. 394 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:16,439 Speaker 11: I mean, anyone who's seen photos of Trump since the 395 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 11: eighties knows he loves that kind of look and that 396 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,199 Speaker 11: kind of gold situation. So that's where he is. But 397 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 11: you know, he's definitely more comfortable, it seems, in the 398 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 11: White House than he was in the first term. And 399 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 11: he's making these changes and tuning and including. We saw 400 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 11: earlier this month the announcement of the UFC fight at 401 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 11: some point on the ground of the White House. So 402 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 11: I don't know, we'll see. 403 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 3: If you're going to have a front row seat to that. 404 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 11: I see about that. I was joking lesson about whether 405 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 11: that will decide the FED chair. We'll see, you know, 406 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 11: probably probably not, probably not. But this made for TV 407 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 11: quality of Donald Trump persists that is like the least 408 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 11: Newsy state, but I can make but he continues to 409 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 11: do that. But yeah, he's pretty proud of the change 410 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:51,840 Speaker 11: in the cabinet room. 411 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 3: It is what it is. 412 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 8: Flags on North and South Lone as well. 413 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 3: They're really big. They're so very big. 414 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 11: There's really large flags. 415 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 3: Like you see on the automile. 416 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 8: Are those flags too big to tariff? 417 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 2: That'srect I think those are made in the USA. Yeah, 418 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 2: there you go, josh Win Grove, We thank you as always. 419 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg White House correspondent. 420 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 3: Can we get to the panel here? 421 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 5: You think I think we should? Yeah. 422 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 3: Lonnie chat is with US G D. 423 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 2: Shanzo, Bloomberg Politics contributor and of course a senior Democracy 424 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 2: Fellow with the Center for the Study of the Presidency 425 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 2: in Congress. Lonnie is our Republican strategist and fellow in 426 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 2: American Public Policy. 427 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 3: Studies at the Hoover Institution. It's great to have both 428 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 3: of you here. 429 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 2: Lonnie, your take on the trade policy if there is one, 430 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 2: or is this a president who's making this up as 431 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 2: he goes? 432 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,560 Speaker 12: Well, Look, I think it's all about the deals, right, 433 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 12: and that has always, i think, from day one, been 434 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 12: the modus operandi of the president in the White House 435 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 12: is to be able to talk about deals announcing deals, 436 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 12: and you know, in many of these situations, what we 437 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 12: really see is a little bit more buffer to get 438 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 12: to deals. Now the particular country announced today, I don't 439 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 12: necessarily think that whether we have a bilateral deal with 440 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 12: Sri Lanka is going to make or break our trade deficit, 441 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 12: but certainly, you know, I think about the bigger countries 442 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 12: like Japan and Korea, where the situation started off very optimistically. 443 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 12: If you look back to when we were first talking 444 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 12: about doing trade deals with a number of different countries, 445 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,439 Speaker 12: Japan and Korea were often named as two countries that 446 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 12: we thought right out of the gate would get good 447 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 12: treatment initially, and we've seen now that those negotiations are 448 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 12: dragging a bit. So I really see these letters in 449 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,199 Speaker 12: some ways as an invitation to really come to the 450 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 12: table just one last time, and let's see what comes 451 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 12: of it. I do tend to think that we will 452 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 12: see progress made, particularly with Japan and Korea. 453 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,199 Speaker 6: But it'll be interesting to see. There's a few other countries. 454 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 12: We don't have a lot of clarity on the European 455 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 12: Union yet, we don't have clarity on Taiwan yet, So 456 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 12: there's still some countries where I'm waiting to see what 457 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,679 Speaker 12: comes of the President's announcements in the next couple hours. 458 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 6: I guess here on July ninth. 459 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 8: Okay, so Lannie sees these letters an invitation to come 460 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 8: to the negotiating table to try to make a deal. Genie, 461 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:09,200 Speaker 8: the President characterizes these letters as deals in and of themselves. 462 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 8: Can we really say that an agreement has been made 463 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 8: between the US and any of these countries who are 464 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 8: on the receiving end. 465 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 13: I like the way President Trump does things. I want 466 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 13: to tell people I'm negotiating with. Listen, I'll send you 467 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 13: a letter and then that's pretty much it. The negotiation 468 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:29,719 Speaker 13: is over, of course not, you know. And as Lannie mentioned, 469 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 13: even on the two where we were told there was 470 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 13: a deal Great Britain and Vietnam, we still don't have 471 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 13: a deal. It's more of like a promise for future talks. 472 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 13: So or we don't have the details, I should say, 473 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,959 Speaker 13: you know, I think when we look at the President's 474 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,879 Speaker 13: policy here, we have to judge it based on the 475 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 13: way the administration says it should be judged. 476 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 5: And they have talked about all of. 477 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 13: These goals, from reshoring to protection of national security to 478 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 13: raising revenue. And Scott Bessen talks yesterday about the fact 479 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 13: that a lot of revenue has been raised so far, 480 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 13: and he's absolutely right, but most economists tell us that. 481 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 5: That'll be short lived. 482 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 13: And of course any revenue coming in in the long 483 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 13: term is a tax on Americans, and it's a regressive 484 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:23,479 Speaker 13: tax on lower income Americans. So by that one measure 485 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 13: that they themselves set out, this policy is very, very troubling, 486 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 13: particularly from a president who's touting a win on the 487 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 13: big beautiful bill because it cuts taxes, and yet on 488 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 13: the flip side, with all of these tariffs, he is 489 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:42,360 Speaker 13: raising taxes on Americans who simply cannot afford them. And 490 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 13: so from that perspective, I call how foul on all 491 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,120 Speaker 13: of this. And you can look at the other four 492 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:53,439 Speaker 13: goals and he's not doing much better on those either, Lonnie. 493 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 2: The market had a bit of a hiccup yesterday when 494 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 2: the tariffs were first announced or the letters started going out. 495 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 2: The fifty percent copper tariff hit the tape as well. 496 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,640 Speaker 2: We're coming back today, and the fact of the matter 497 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,719 Speaker 2: is we're not that far from all time highs. I mean, 498 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 2: you look at the S and P five hundred, still 499 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 2: well above sixty two hundred right now. And there is 500 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,639 Speaker 2: this thought the taco trade, if you want to call it, 501 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 2: that the boy who cried tariff is Wall Street smart 502 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 2: to just start ignoring this. 503 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 12: Well, I think you're seeing that market behavior already. I mean, 504 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 12: if you look back to some of the pullbacks we 505 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 12: had post Liberation Day, there was some real concern that 506 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 12: these tariffs might be quite high in their percentage, they 507 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,919 Speaker 12: might be quite broadly applied, they might be applied to 508 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,120 Speaker 12: some critical industries. And you know, little by little we've 509 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 12: seen some of that posture change. And I think markets 510 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 12: are reacting to the fact that the president, at the 511 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 12: end of the day is behaving on all of these 512 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 12: things in a pretty rational way, understanding that there are 513 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:57,640 Speaker 12: significant implications to significant tariffs, particularly on major trading partners. 514 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 12: Now we'll see there are some things he talked about 515 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,959 Speaker 12: sectoral tariffs, for example of two hundred percent on pharmaceuticals. 516 00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 12: If that were to really come into play, that would 517 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 12: be a significant challenge for the life sciences sector. I 518 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 12: think there's a question about whether that's real or just talk. 519 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 12: At this point, but so far, at least, I think 520 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 12: what markets have seen is, yes, the President likes tariffs, 521 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 12: Yes he likes to talk about them. Yes there's a 522 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,719 Speaker 12: way in which he's looking to put tariffs on a 523 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 12: broad variety of countries and industries. But at the end 524 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 12: of the day, there is a level of rationality, whether 525 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 12: you want to chalk that up to what the President's 526 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 12: doing or to what Secretary Bessett, who I think is 527 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:36,880 Speaker 12: a great advisor on a lot of. 528 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 6: These things, whoever it is, or whatever it is. 529 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 12: I think markets have kind of taken stock of this 530 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,920 Speaker 12: and said, listen, we just don't think that the downside 531 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 12: scenario that some had talked about is all that likely. 532 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 6: And I think that's why people. 533 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 12: Are maybe exuberant, perhaps irrationally so. Now given that we've 534 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 12: got several more years of the Trump Show. 535 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 8: Well, and when we consider that downside scenario, Gene, does 536 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 8: that heighten the risk that markets could actually be caught 537 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 8: off guard when the President decides Okay, actually I'm not 538 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,640 Speaker 8: punting again. This is a hard deadline. These tariffs are real. 539 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 13: Yeah, there is a chance, and hopefully that doesn't happen, 540 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 13: but there is a chance because the way I read 541 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 13: what's happening is that the markets, like the rest of us, 542 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 13: we put in, you know, one deadline, scratch it off, 543 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 13: you put in another one, scratch it off. I mean, 544 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,920 Speaker 13: we were all prepared today to be talking about July ninth, 545 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 13: this big deadline, and of course then it was moved, 546 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 13: and so the market seemed to be expecting that this 547 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 13: is going to probably move again. And maybe they're right 548 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 13: about that, and that is, you know, make sense. But 549 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 13: if he decides to keep with this August first deadline, 550 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 13: hopefully they're not caught off guard. But he could actually 551 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 13: do that. And the reality is is that if he's 552 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 13: talking about targeted tariffs, that might be one thing, but 553 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 13: he hasn't been doing that, and he needs to be 554 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 13: very clear the goal here, and he hasn't been on 555 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 13: that either. 556 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 8: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Lanni Chen our political panel 557 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 8: on this Wednesday, thank you so much. Of course, Wednesday, 558 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 8: July ninth not the day we all necessarily thought it 559 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 8: would be. 560 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 10: As we look ahead now to August. 561 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 8: First, we'll have more ahead here on Balance of Power 562 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 8: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 563 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ketchas 564 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 565 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,800 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business Up. Listen 566 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 567 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,359 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 568 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 2: As we consider the idea of a fifty percent tariff 569 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 2: on copper against the backdrop of these tarif fletters that 570 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 2: have been going out to individual countries, and as we've 571 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 2: told you, seven more went out today to the likes 572 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 2: of Libya, Iraq and the Philippines. We had the voice 573 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 2: of Heather Bouchet of the Conversation, not a stranger to 574 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 2: Stephen Myron's job. She was, of course a member of 575 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 2: the White House Council of Vikanic Advisors as deputy director 576 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 2: under President Joe Biden, currently senior Research Fellow at the 577 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 2: Harvard Kennedy School. Heather, it's great to see you, Welcome 578 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. We'd like to hear 579 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 2: from you broadly on the trade policy or lack thereof, 580 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 2: that we're seeing in the last twenty four to forty 581 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 2: eight hours. But I'm curious your thoughts specifically on copper 582 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 2: and the impact that a fifty percent. 583 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:23,919 Speaker 3: Tariff would have on our economy. What would this look like. 584 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 5: Well, listen, I mean, the chaos continues. 585 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 14: I think that you know, it's really hard to listen 586 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 14: to the current chair talk about the kinds of the 587 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 14: kind of economy that President Trump wants to see, but 588 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 14: how chaotic this implementation is and how it doesn't make 589 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 14: sense in terms of spurring the kind of investment that 590 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 14: we need to see all across the United States. Now, 591 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 14: I think you know, you see these price bikes because 592 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,160 Speaker 14: the President is saying that he's going to impose you know, 593 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 14: new tariffs on copper at this point, but A, we 594 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 14: don't know whether or not that's going to stick, and 595 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 14: B that makes it so difficult for investors all across 596 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 14: the country and for businesses to make plans. And as 597 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 14: the previous segment pointed out, it's very difficult for industries 598 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 14: that actually build things to turn on a dime in 599 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 14: the way that the President seems to want. 600 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 5: Them to do. Again, the chaos doesn't help. 601 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 14: But even if you said we want you to all 602 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 14: change your supply chains overnight, the world just doesn't work 603 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 14: that way. These are they have to be built. You 604 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 14: have to figure out all of your new suppliers. You 605 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 14: have to make sure that you can produce domestically, and 606 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 14: the President, with the other part of his policy agenda, 607 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 14: is stripping our ability to make those investments. We saw 608 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 14: the passage of the Republican budget bill that's actually making 609 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 14: cutbacks and the kinds of investments around the country that 610 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,360 Speaker 14: would create those stable. 611 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 5: Incentives for investment. 612 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 14: So what I see is a chaotic implementation of a 613 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 14: plan that is not leading to economic outcomes that the 614 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 14: President is promised, and are likely to lead to more chaos, 615 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 14: less domestic production in things that really matter. Businesses just 616 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 14: can't quite sort out what the heck he's thinking. 617 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 8: Well, Heather, another economic outcome it hasn't necessarily led to, 618 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 8: at least yet that was expected, is materially higher inflation. 619 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 8: And I asked this knowing we're getting a CPI report 620 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,920 Speaker 8: next week, and the chair of the Federal Reserved your 621 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 8: own power has suggested it's this summer that he believes 622 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 8: the effect of tariffs will start showing up in price data. 623 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 8: Do you expect we start to see that next week? 624 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 8: When does it hit? 625 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 5: Well, I mean, here's the thing. 626 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 14: Certainly, if you're adding on these tariffs on to the 627 00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 14: things that people are buying, then prices. 628 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 5: Are going to go up. The question is, you know, 629 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 5: how soon will that happen. 630 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 14: As you noted, people expected that that would start to 631 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 14: really be binding in the summer. But it does really 632 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,880 Speaker 14: depend on whether or not these tariffs stick and where 633 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 14: they stick, and how much of those costs are passed 634 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 14: on to consumers. Given the direction of the economy and 635 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 14: all of the concerns that we're seeing from all of 636 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 14: the different kinds of soft data, you know, the consumer surveys, 637 00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 14: the business surveys, it seems like people all across America, cansumers, families, businesses. 638 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 5: CEOs are very worried about the direction. So that probably 639 00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 5: means that they might be holding back. 640 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 14: Maybe firms might not increase prices so quickly because they're 641 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 14: a little bit afraid of losing their customers, but maybe 642 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 14: they will. And we know that these tariffs will lead 643 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 14: to probably a one time increase in prices, and we're 644 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 14: like to we're likely to. 645 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,000 Speaker 5: See the effects of that coming down the pipeline. 646 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 14: But again, it all hinges on whether or not, you know, 647 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 14: the President actually makes it stick. I think one of 648 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,240 Speaker 14: the longer term implications is what this does to investment 649 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 14: in jobs all across the country. That affects the long 650 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 14: term prices that families see on the things that they buy. 651 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 14: And I think that chaos is going to be with 652 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 14: us for a long time. 653 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 8: All right, Heather Bouchet, formerly of the White House Council 654 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 8: of Economic Advisors during the Biden administration. Well, all right, Heather, 655 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 8: thank you so much for joining us. Heather Bouchet, formally 656 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,440 Speaker 8: of the White House Council of Economic Advisors during the 657 00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 8: Biden administration. Now with the Harvard Kennedy School. 658 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us 659 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 660 00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,920 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 661 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 662 00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:17,959 Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 663 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 8: There's a very good chance of a Gaza agreement as 664 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 8: soon as this week, knowing he's fresh off of two 665 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,720 Speaker 8: consecutive nights or afternoons of meetings with Israeli Prime Minister 666 00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 8: Benjamin Netanya, who. 667 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 3: At the White House with no news. 668 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 2: We didn't even see the arrivals on either of those evenings, 669 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 2: brought Benjamin Netanya, who went through the side West wing entrance, 670 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 2: the driveway entrance where press photographers cannot see or reporters 671 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 2: cannot shout questions. To my knowledge, Kaylee, unless you saw 672 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 2: when there was no readout from the White House on 673 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,719 Speaker 2: this meeting, and we didn't hear one from Netanyahu's office 674 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:53,720 Speaker 2: as well, So it's curious they were supposed to be 675 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,520 Speaker 2: talking to your point about a ceasefire in Gaza. There's 676 00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 2: been a lot of reporting that they've been talking about 677 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 2: Iran knowing that they're could be further strikes against Iran 678 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 2: in lieu of a deal. 679 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 8: Yeah, so we want to get into both of those 680 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 8: issues now. As we turn to Hagar Shamali, former director 681 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 8: for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council, now 682 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 8: founder and CEO of Greenwich Media Strategies, Hagara, thank you 683 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 8: for being with us as the President suggests there could 684 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 8: actually be movement on a ceasefire this week, knowing we 685 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 8: have been here time and again before. What odds would 686 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 8: you put around that? 687 00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 15: Well, as you mentioned, we've been here before. 688 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 10: But the reason I would put good odds on this one. 689 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 15: Is because you are hearing a lot of positive openness 690 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 15: to this from already from the Prime Minister from Prime 691 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 15: Minister at Nyahu and the Israeli government, And there are 692 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 15: a few reasons for that. 693 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 10: Part of it is pressure that they're facing, but a 694 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,960 Speaker 10: lot of it is actually when you're following on. 695 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 15: The foot of the strikes that happened against that Irani 696 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 15: regime and its nuclear program, you're essentially following a strategy 697 00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 15: where Iran is being put in a box and then 698 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 15: you pivot to moving ahead. 699 00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 10: On other things. 700 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 15: And that's why you're also seeing talks between Syrian Is 701 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 15: move quickly. So in light of that, right after that, 702 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 15: Trump also himself has chips that he can call on 703 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 15: right now with Natannahu and say. 704 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 10: Look, you know, we were there for you. We came 705 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:12,319 Speaker 10: in when we helped you. 706 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,200 Speaker 15: With those strikes, and now you're going to need to 707 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,080 Speaker 15: go to this now agreeing. There's another part of this, 708 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,960 Speaker 15: and that's that agreeing to a ceasefire, which is temporary, 709 00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 15: is easier for Natanyahu than the second part, which is 710 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 15: agreeing to an end of the war. And that's where 711 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 15: Trump wants to go, is to get to this so 712 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 15: that he can take those sixty days to negotiate the 713 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,359 Speaker 15: end of the war. Nataniano doesn't want to get there. 714 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 15: He wants to leave the window open to it to 715 00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 15: continue attacking Hamas and undermining them, and so that in 716 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 15: Natayan Who's mind, it's easier to at least if he's 717 00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 15: going to curry favor with Trump, to agree to that 718 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 15: temporary ceasefire and kick the can down the road on 719 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 15: the end of the war. 720 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 10: And so that's why I have some hope that this 721 00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 10: might actually come through. 722 00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 2: What do you make of the silence surrounding these meetings, Hagar, 723 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 2: the fact that we're not hearing any communications from either 724 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,440 Speaker 2: God about what was discussed. Didn't see him coming or 725 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:02,959 Speaker 2: going either. 726 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,440 Speaker 10: Yeah, that's you know, it's interesting. 727 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,440 Speaker 15: I mean, from what I've heard from my White House friends, 728 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:11,640 Speaker 15: the meetings have gone well. Obviously they obviously also chose 729 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 15: to put out their the the offer of or the 730 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,640 Speaker 15: fact that nata Yahu nominated President Trump for the Nobel 731 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,880 Speaker 15: Peace Prize, right, so they put that part out in 732 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 15: the press. I've actually seen this a lot as well, 733 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,080 Speaker 15: just in Lebanon. Now, Tom Barrick was in Lebanon and 734 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,400 Speaker 15: he chose not also not to comment on the negotiations 735 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 15: between the United States and the Lebanese government on the 736 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,359 Speaker 15: disarmament of Hasbela, and he actively said I'm not going 737 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:35,879 Speaker 15: to talk about it in the public because I don't 738 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 15: want to undermine the negotiating process. So that's you know, 739 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,480 Speaker 15: it could only in my mind it only highlights the 740 00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 15: seriousness of it, but also perhaps that they don't want 741 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:50,800 Speaker 15: the they don't want the media opening debating undermining anything. 742 00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,319 Speaker 15: They want it to be in secret and then to 743 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 15: come out public with it and to be fair. By 744 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 15: the way, That's how they That's how they pursued the 745 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,320 Speaker 15: Abraham Accords Trump under Trump one point zero, they. 746 00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,359 Speaker 10: Were very secretive about it. 747 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 15: Abraham is different, obviously, but they very secretive about it 748 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 15: until coming out with something real. And so I think 749 00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,239 Speaker 15: it's it's part of that view is they don't want 750 00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 15: anything to lead or to be distorted, and they don't 751 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,320 Speaker 15: want to chase a narrative that they themselves haven't shaped. 752 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,720 Speaker 8: So do you think, Cugard that they'll wait to actually 753 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 8: come out with a deal announcement until both Israel and 754 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 8: Hamas have signed on, Because typically, and this was true 755 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 8: of the Biden administration as well, you get the announcement 756 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:25,160 Speaker 8: that one party has agreed, and then the other one 757 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 8: isn't necessarily on board, and the whole thing falls apart. 758 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,839 Speaker 15: That's right, Well, it's you know, it's hard to it's 759 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,040 Speaker 15: hard to predict exactly how they'll do it. 760 00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,080 Speaker 10: They don't do it the same every time. 761 00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:41,000 Speaker 15: But I will say that there's a lot of the 762 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 15: discussions they're having are so detailed. So for example, when 763 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:51,600 Speaker 15: they talk about the disarmament of Hamas specifically, and and 764 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 15: it's to this detail, well, how are they going to 765 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:54,719 Speaker 15: how are they. 766 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,560 Speaker 10: Going to monitor that, who's going to enforce that? 767 00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,879 Speaker 15: Are there going to be troops on the ground if 768 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 15: Israel is withdrawing from parts of Gaza in exchange for 769 00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,560 Speaker 15: this ceasefire, what parts Specifically they're not going to go 770 00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,040 Speaker 15: of the Philadelphia Corridor that's the border for example, between 771 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,799 Speaker 15: Gaza and Egypt. But there's a lot of discussion of 772 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 15: how far they'll retreat to, like how far into the 773 00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:18,399 Speaker 15: barrier or the barrier that's being built that perimeter around 774 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,640 Speaker 15: between Israel and Gaza. But at the same time, you 775 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 15: just had an attack that happened yesterday that was. 776 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,400 Speaker 10: In that perimeter where you where a number. 777 00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,719 Speaker 15: You had five IVF soldiers I believe who died and 778 00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 15: fourteen that were wounded something like that, and so that 779 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,319 Speaker 15: again that in the wake of that, that's not going 780 00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:39,360 Speaker 15: to bode well for Israel agreeing to those specific details. 781 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,759 Speaker 15: But when you get when you're talking about figuring those 782 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 15: details out, that's what makes it so difficult. But I 783 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 15: do think that as per usual, they're going to have 784 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,959 Speaker 15: an interest if Israel agrees to this deal, the US 785 00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:50,760 Speaker 15: is going to have an interest in saying that Israel 786 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 15: agreed to it and that the ball. 787 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 10: Is in Hamas's court. So that's kind of how I 788 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 10: expect it. 789 00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,319 Speaker 2: To usually go regard does any of this work as 790 00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,839 Speaker 2: long as President Trump has a vision of Gaza being 791 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 2: turned into a Mediterranean resort town. 792 00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,399 Speaker 15: I think that again, this one is is something that 793 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,320 Speaker 15: this is where you're going to see the biggest gap 794 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:12,040 Speaker 15: and between the Israeli government and the US government is 795 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:16,080 Speaker 15: that Trump has a goal to end this war specifically, 796 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,120 Speaker 15: and that's where what he wants to use these if 797 00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,319 Speaker 15: they agree to this temporary ceasefire, wants to use those 798 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 15: sixty days to get to that. And Nintaya, who's made 799 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,759 Speaker 15: it clear now again there are many different elements of 800 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,759 Speaker 15: a deal that might get him to agree to something, 801 00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,960 Speaker 15: but at the end of the day, he doesn't want 802 00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 15: Hamas to govern Gaza. Hamas has indicated openness to not 803 00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:40,040 Speaker 15: governing Gaza and to a different government coming in, except 804 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,440 Speaker 15: the question is would Hamas secretly be behind that government Natanya, 805 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,200 Speaker 15: who also doesn't want the Palestinian Authority being part of 806 00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,560 Speaker 15: that new government in Gaza. It's a policy to continue 807 00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:53,719 Speaker 15: keeping Gaza and the West Bank separated because he doesn't 808 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,600 Speaker 15: want to move toward two states. And so now the 809 00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:58,799 Speaker 15: Trump administration also has not made it clear that that's 810 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:00,759 Speaker 15: what they're headed toward. The just want an end to 811 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 15: the war. But that gap that is going to continue 812 00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:07,640 Speaker 15: being a gap. I wouldn't mistake that chasm for undermining 813 00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,600 Speaker 15: the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu. Trump is actually quite 814 00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,319 Speaker 15: honest when he's upset with netaw who he says it. 815 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,640 Speaker 15: When he's happy with him, he says it. So I 816 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,840 Speaker 15: wouldn't I wouldn't view it as something that would undermine 817 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:19,560 Speaker 15: the relationship. But I think it's gonna it's going to 818 00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,239 Speaker 15: be a gap that continues until Netanyahu himself feels that 819 00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,680 Speaker 15: he has undermined Hamas enough, or that he has retained 820 00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 15: some kind of capability where the Israeli government can continue 821 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,000 Speaker 15: going after hamas terrorist activity as they see it. 822 00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 3: Guard, it's great to have you back. 823 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,960 Speaker 2: Agar Shamali, former director for Syria and Lebanon on the 824 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 2: National Security Council, knows what she talks about now, founder 825 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,560 Speaker 2: Greenwich Media Strategies. It's great to have you with us 826 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,920 Speaker 2: as part of our conversation on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Okaylee, 827 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 2: you do wonder if we're going to hear something more 828 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,919 Speaker 2: about this conversation or maybe news of another meeting. We did, 829 00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,880 Speaker 2: in fact, to Pegar's point, we did see Benjaminett and Yahoo. 830 00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,640 Speaker 2: They held a luncheon, brought some reporters in the room 831 00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,960 Speaker 2: two days ago, but when he returned for the evening meetings, 832 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:06,160 Speaker 2: we never saw the two together. 833 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:06,640 Speaker 6: Yeah. 834 00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,279 Speaker 8: And of course it's not just meetings at the White 835 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,520 Speaker 8: House we're referring to. He's met with the Defense Secretary 836 00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:14,480 Speaker 8: pH II Seth, he met with leadership in Congress yesterday 837 00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:16,160 Speaker 8: as well. So spending a lot of time here in 838 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,719 Speaker 8: Washington will see ultimately of a ceasefire. 839 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:19,520 Speaker 10: Is the end result. 840 00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,320 Speaker 8: That's one thing we'll be watching for between now and 841 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,640 Speaker 8: five pm when we returned d Air. The other is 842 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 8: more teriff f letters, the President suggested Brazil could come today. 843 00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,120 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 844 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,840 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 845 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 846 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,840 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 847 00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:43,520 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.