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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Daybreak

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Speaker 1: Asia Podcast. I'm Charlie Palatin for Doug Chrisner. Syrian President

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Speaker 1: Bashar A Lasad's government has fallen after a stunning territorial

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Speaker 1: advance by opposition groups over the past few days. And

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Speaker 1: for more, we heard from Greg Barton, professor of Global

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Speaker 1: Islamic Politics at the Alfred de Deacon Institute at Deacon University.

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Speaker 1: He spoke to Bloomberg's Heidi Stroud, Watts and Sherry On.

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Speaker 2: So when you take a look at what's happened and

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Speaker 2: where we go from here, you've talked about the kind

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Speaker 2: of difficult and dangerous partnership with the people that are

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Speaker 2: now in charge. Do you see this as a moment

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Speaker 2: of opportunity or of enormous regional risk?

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Speaker 3: But I think Hadi, it's a moment of great opportunity

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Speaker 3: and there's good reason for being cautiously optimistic. What happened

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Speaker 3: with the various groups coming together and aligning with HTS,

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Speaker 3: the key former al Qaeda rebel group is they decided

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Speaker 3: this was the least evil by a long measure, of

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Speaker 3: all the options getting rid of the Asata regime. Incredibly brutal, callous,

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Speaker 3: incompetent regime. That was the main goal. For Syria to

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Speaker 3: have a bright future, it needs to work as a

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Speaker 3: federation that respects pluralism. So HTS has to be happy

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Speaker 3: to play a significant role alongside the Syrian democratic forces

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Speaker 3: in the northeastern third of Syria, alongside with the various

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Speaker 3: forces including the forces that moved into Damascus from the south,

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Speaker 3: that are secular and not comfortable with at least the

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Speaker 3: former al Qaeda jihadist ideology of HTS. That seems like

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Speaker 3: a long stretch, but it's possible, and credit to the

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Speaker 3: period people of Syria who have been amazingly resilient and

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Speaker 3: focused in getting this far. Just those scenes of people

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Speaker 3: being released from prisons, sometimes after tens of years as

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Speaker 3: political prisoners is a great thing in itself. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: the difficult days ahead.

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Speaker 2: There's been much sort of spoken already about the power

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Speaker 2: vacuum that potentially gets left. Right, Who do you think

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Speaker 2: I are going to be rushing in to try and

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Speaker 2: have a stake in this. We know that there's probably

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Speaker 2: enormous opportunity for Turkey at this point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we need to shift the focus back

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Speaker 3: Heidi to people of Syria. I mean the power vacuum

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Speaker 3: is being filled by the people of Syria who very

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Speaker 3: bravely fought. The key is whether they can work alongside

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Speaker 3: each other and respect each other in the sort of

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Speaker 3: plural alliance. If they can do that, and if Turkey

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Speaker 3: can resist the temptation to exercise too much control via

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Speaker 3: HTS and also resist temptation to move to harshly against

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Speaker 3: the SDF in the northeast, this is the group that

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Speaker 3: defeated ISIS, after all, and where there's still many tens

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Speaker 3: of thousands of people with ISIS associations in camps and prisons.

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Speaker 3: And if America can help stabilize that northeast, which is

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Speaker 3: of course a question under the new administration coming in

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Speaker 3: in January, then perhaps things can hold together and then

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Speaker 3: there won't be a vacuum. The vacuum occurs when you

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Speaker 3: sort of pull a regime out and there's nothing to

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Speaker 3: replace it. In Iraq that led to insurgencies. It doesn't

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Speaker 3: have to be that way in Syria.

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Speaker 4: A great talk us through what happened with Bashar Alasa's regime,

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Speaker 4: because when he first came into power in two thousand,

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Speaker 4: he was seen as a potential reformer for the region.

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Speaker 4: What changed and what happens next to him, because the

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Speaker 4: last we heard was that he was in Russia.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a really good question, Sherry. I suspect he's

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Speaker 3: got a nice six floor apartment with a wonderful balcony.

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Speaker 3: I can't imagine he could rest comfortably in retirement in Russia,

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Speaker 3: because you know, he's now seen as a loser, and

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Speaker 3: Russia disposes losers anyway. That aside, the key thing to

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Speaker 3: understand is that when Basha Alasaide succeeded his father, surprisingly

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Speaker 3: his brother had been killed, so he was the unlikely replacement.

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Speaker 3: People said, well, this London trained eye doctor, he seems

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Speaker 3: moderate and mild. It still seems moderate and mild in

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Speaker 3: his demeanor, but he very quickly aligned with the most

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Speaker 3: brutal of the generals in the Assad regime and carried

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Speaker 3: out and continued to carry out for decades, really harsh

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Speaker 3: crackdowns and dissidents that continued after the Arab Spring began

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Speaker 3: in twenty eleven. He missed many opportunities through that first decade,

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Speaker 3: and then since then he's missed opportunities to reconcile. Even

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Speaker 3: in the last few years when it looked like the

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Speaker 3: region was reaching out in trains as that have moved

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Speaker 3: on and rehabilitate a start, he refused to take the

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Speaker 3: opportunities offered to him. And yeah, so this is a

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Speaker 3: this is a collapse that, you know, like a bankruptcy,

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Speaker 3: occurred very slowly at first, over decades and then all

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Speaker 3: at once.

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Speaker 4: How are we expecting Washington to deal with HTS, which

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Speaker 4: is of course a terrorist designated designated as a terrorist organization.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, when your designated group as a terrorist organization, it's

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Speaker 3: double edged. I mean, you can understand why you do it,

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Speaker 3: but it cuts off channels to communication. That means you're

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Speaker 3: out of the loop. You don't have those back channels

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Speaker 3: at least not as clearly and so not officially, and

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Speaker 3: therefore you can misjudge things. The best hope is that

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Speaker 3: HTS has genuinely broken that Joel Oni, who's consolidated his

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Speaker 3: leadership there since twenty twelve, has genuinely broken with that

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Speaker 3: former old kind of background. It has committed to a

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Speaker 3: plural you know, federal Syria. America needs to be in

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Speaker 3: the loop. In my opinion, America needs to play a

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Speaker 3: significant role, not interventionist in terms of you know, foreign affairs,

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Speaker 3: you know, proxy power stuff, but just being supportive and positive,

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Speaker 3: beginning with the SDF in the northeast, but also finding

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Speaker 3: a way to work through with HDS an off ramp

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Speaker 3: to their terroristed designation so that if they show good

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Speaker 3: faith and if they meet scrutiny, they can be rehabilitated,

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Speaker 3: perhaps much of the way that happened in Ireland with

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Speaker 3: the I.

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Speaker 2: We know that, of course Russia has military bases all

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Speaker 2: over Syria. We know that there is Lammik. Republic is

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Speaker 2: probably not likely to give up its interests without a fight.

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Speaker 2: How messy does that part of the transition get? Do

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Speaker 2: you think what should we be looking out for on

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Speaker 2: that side?

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Speaker 3: Well, Iurana course is at a moment of weakness, and

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Speaker 3: the real shock troops on the ground for the sat

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Speaker 3: regiam were largely by Hizbollah with the Iranian backing. That's

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Speaker 3: out of the play for the time being, so that's positive.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully the regime in Terehran does an introstruction of the

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Speaker 3: sides now starting to move beyond the so called axis

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Speaker 3: of resistance. It seems to be almost finished for Russia.

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Speaker 3: It's more difficult. They really value that Tatus, the Mediterranean

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Speaker 3: port there are still ships there and then sixty k's

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Speaker 3: to the north Inaman there's an air base, both very

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Speaker 3: critical to the Russians. The big question is how much

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Speaker 3: resources they when I put into trying to keep those

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Speaker 3: bases and for whatever hts slid new government that comes in,

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Speaker 3: will they do a deal with the Russians. You know

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Speaker 3: in many ways that it will advise not to but

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Speaker 3: also to allow some peaceful exit. But that's the big

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Speaker 3: question to watch at the moment.

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Speaker 2: Greg, really great to have you appreciate your insights. Greg Barton,

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Speaker 2: Research Professor in Global Islamic Politics at the Alfred Deakin

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Speaker 2: Institute at Deacon University.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Charlie Pellett.

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Speaker 1: Doug Prisoner is off. Asian stocks are poised for a

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Speaker 1: mixed open as traders grapple with continued political upheaval in

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Speaker 1: South Korea and they are awaiting signs of fresh stimulus

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Speaker 1: from Beijing. Oil is steady after the Syrian government was toppled. Earlier,

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Speaker 1: we heard from Lorraine Tan morning Star, director of Asia

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Speaker 1: Equity Research, and she spoke to Bloomberg's Sherry On and

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Speaker 1: Heidi stroud.

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Speaker 4: Is this just a short lived political event and will

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Speaker 4: the broader marketing career recover or is a picture more

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Speaker 4: challenging especially globally as well going into twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Hi, good morning. I think firstly on Korea, we

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Speaker 5: still do expect this to be in a short lived event. Obviously,

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Speaker 5: leadership change is ongoing. It's a key uncertainty, and we

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Speaker 5: you know, obviously wouldn't be surprised that there is market

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Speaker 5: volatilely for the time being. But we're still you know,

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Speaker 5: our base case is still for the processes to hold,

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Speaker 5: the democratic processes to hold in the ongoing changeover. And

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Speaker 5: as a result, we think if there's a pullback there was,

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Speaker 5: there's an opportunity to pick up kre in companies, but

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Speaker 5: obviously we prefer exporters that don't have maybe have a

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Speaker 5: slight advantage when it comes to the law and weakness.

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Speaker 4: What are the risks going into twenty twenty five, not

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Speaker 4: only for South Korea, but for other parts of the

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Speaker 4: world and other countries here in the Asian and other currencies,

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Speaker 4: given of course the political chaos and not only here

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Speaker 4: in South Korea, but also we have more tensions in

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Speaker 4: the Middle East, the collapse of the government in Syria,

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Speaker 4: and of course an incoming Trump administration threatening tariffs.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so lots going on for Asian markets. I would say,

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Speaker 5: first and foremost, there's still a lot of uncertainty as

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Speaker 5: to what Trump presidency is going to hold for the

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Speaker 5: next four years. I think obviously the key front of

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Speaker 5: that is going to be how that's impact China. But

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Speaker 5: we actually see China as one of the most more

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Speaker 5: undervalued markets globally, and we do still you know, we're

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Speaker 5: looking at our twenty twenty five outlook is for about

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Speaker 5: eleven to twelve percent upside for China equities on the whole.

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Speaker 5: We think there are the consumer sectors are much more undervalued,

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Speaker 5: you know, twenty to over twenty percent undervalue to our

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Speaker 5: fair value estimates. So that's where we see the most opportunity.

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Speaker 5: But it's got to be driven by an improvement in

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Speaker 5: consumer confidence, and at this point in time, we do

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Speaker 5: expect things to be bottoming out consumer sentiment wise, but

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Speaker 5: we still need to see more coming out from in

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Speaker 5: terms of FISCO policy, So we're hoping to see more

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Speaker 5: details come through over the next six months. As to

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Speaker 5: the you know, geopolitics, what's going on in Syria, what's

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Speaker 5: going on in Middle East with Ukraine, that still has

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Speaker 5: to basically uncover itself. So we do think that there's

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Speaker 5: reasons to be a little bit more cautious, but we

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Speaker 5: think that on the fundamental basis, we're still you know,

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Speaker 5: when you're looking at China consumer stocks, where it's very

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Speaker 5: much to focus on the domestic front, you know, that's

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Speaker 5: that's where we're looking at basically good quality companies that

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Speaker 5: can recover as consumption improves.

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Speaker 2: Where are you saying those in terms of specific names

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Speaker 2: that might be trading at you know, value appropriate or

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Speaker 2: undervalued levels right now?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So we're talking for China. For about China, you know,

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Speaker 5: where we like the particularly like the wide moate rated

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Speaker 5: companies that we have. These are again market leaders. There

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Speaker 5: are companies like ten Cent Young China for example. We

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Speaker 5: also see opportunities among some of the bi jo makers. Uh,

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Speaker 5: those are high quality names in a very concentrated market place,

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Speaker 5: particularly for premium bai jo. So we think these are

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Speaker 5: opportunities to investors who want to hold out through the

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Speaker 5: mid to long term for China equities. In terms of elsewhere,

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Speaker 5: you know, we going back to Korea if there's a pullback,

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Speaker 5: we like Skhihine's best.

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Speaker 4: In Japan.

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Speaker 5: We see that as some opportunities, particularly if there's a

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Speaker 5: recovery in China, as well as an alternative to the geopolitics.

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Speaker 5: Sony is one company we like. We like the factory

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Speaker 5: automation SPACEED Harmonic Systems FUNUK for example, and then in

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Speaker 5: Singapore we also have st Engineering is one of our

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Speaker 5: preferred picks given the the you know, the growth outlook

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Speaker 5: that they have with the MRO still in demand and

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Speaker 5: anticipation for the defense side to still see relatively decent

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Speaker 5: growth in the mixed a few quarters.

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Speaker 2: You also see potentially there are names in Japan that

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Speaker 2: might be a good alternative if we see the consumption

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Speaker 2: recovery in China.

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Speaker 5: Yes, that's right. So first the number, well, the factory

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Speaker 5: automation space if you know, reinvestment, our KPEX factory activity

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Speaker 5: starts to improve in in China, the factory automation names

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Speaker 5: in Japan or beneficiary FUNUK, the yascoa harmonic drive for example.

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Speaker 5: Luxury goods globally would obviously benefit. We saw that big

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Speaker 5: bounce initially when there was the PBOC cuts in September,

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Speaker 5: so these include Sheido to a larger extent, probably a

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Speaker 5: little bit more than cose and a cal and unish

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Speaker 5: arm as well. Loin.

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Speaker 2: Always great to have you with us. Lorraine Tan, director

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Speaker 2: of Asia Equity Research at morning Star.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak

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Speaker 1: Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story

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Speaker 1: shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You

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Speaker 1: can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,

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Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for

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Speaker 1: insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore

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Speaker 1: and Australia.

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Speaker 3: I'm Doug Chrisner, and this is Bloomberg