1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. Every pitch is your pitch. 3 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: The Greatest Show on Dirt deep to let me way 4 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: back that God Show. Now they can add college baseball 5 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 1: to their trophy case. Welcome to the Big Bets on 6 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. I'm your host, Mike Calbury's I am joined 7 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,599 Speaker 1: by Action Networks expert on the college diamond. That's Colin Wilson. 8 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: And the long wait is over. Colin. We have the 9 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: bracket in our hands. The Greatest Show on Dirt is 10 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: going to kick off on Friday, the NCAA Tournament, the 11 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: road to Omaha. It's all here with the bracket in hand. 12 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: Is this Christmas morning for you? Or do you have 13 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: to wait for that first pitch to hit the mit 14 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: and then the blood really starts flowing. Listen? 15 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 2: Can we cut out college football because I think the 16 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 2: day they announced the balls is really Christmas Day? So 17 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: if we set that aside, yes, this is Christmas Day. 18 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 2: The field of sixty four has been released. We know 19 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: who's been stubbed. Let me get some homersm some fanism 20 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 2: out of the way. Since I'm a two time graduate 21 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: University of Arkansas. Woopig Sue great regional. 22 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 1: I have no fears. Holy shit, Tennessee. 23 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 2: And Tony Mitello might come to us to the supers. 24 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: I might head might explode next weekend. We'll see if 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 2: we both survive. 26 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: You asked for Kansas, you got this, you got desired, Colin, Like, 27 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: just real quick, we're gonna talk about so many things 28 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: in this episode, but talk me through the matchup against KU. 29 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 1: That's ideal as your two seed there. 30 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it absolutely is because there is no pitching coming 31 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 2: to Fable, And I think the worry is is you 32 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 2: don't want someone to come in and try to slow 33 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: down what is probably the most potent offense in the nation. 34 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 2: You get Kansas coming in with a five point nine 35 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: x fIF they have a five era. Look, they can 36 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 2: hit two. But they've been in these baal me ballparks 37 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: in the Big twelve where it's kind of like Big 38 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 2: twelve football. It's kind of defense optional, and we're just 39 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: going to score fifty to fifty and see if we 40 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: go to three overtimes. It's kind of what Kansas baseball 41 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 2: has been all season. I am not worried about their offense. 42 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 2: They do have gaudy numbers, but with an eighty six 43 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 2: strength of schedule. I'm not really worried about them, but 44 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 2: we can talk a little bit of fatal regional later. 45 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: Now, if you're listening in, you don't have your hands 46 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: on the bracket yet or this is a little bit 47 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: early in the schedule for you, We're going to walk 48 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: you through exactly what happened. In terms of the top 49 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 1: eight seeds aka the super regional seeds, they are as follows, Vanderbilt, Texas, Arkansas, Auburn, 50 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:35,119 Speaker 1: North Carolina, LSU, Georgia, and Oregon State. That means six 51 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: SEC teams, a single team out of the ACC, and 52 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: one independent in Oregon State choosing to play that independent 53 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: schedule and not have any conference affiliation. Right off the bat, 54 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: my thought is, yes, Vandy gets the number one seed. 55 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 1: They ride the momentum of winning the SEC Conference tournament. 56 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: Congrats to them and all the work they did down 57 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: in Hoover. But despite that, they don't exactly have the 58 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: easiest road in my opinion, because a three seed is 59 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: lurking in regional. I'm talking about Etsu. They're fourth and 60 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: slugging in the entire country, and we know this is 61 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: a Vanderbilt team with a tremendous staff all the fundamentals 62 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: point to them potentially being the best or one of 63 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: the top three best staffs in this entire field. But 64 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: on the other side of the coin, you look at 65 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,839 Speaker 1: it in terms of their offense, they need to manufacture 66 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: runs because they don't belt the ball out of the ballpark. 67 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: So if they do get through Etsu, and assuming that 68 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 1: matchup is on the horizon for him, should they advance, 69 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: they're going to catch a Southern miss team that we've 70 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: been pumping their tires the last couple episodes. If they 71 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: get them in the supers. There's a lot to love 72 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: about the Golden Eagles. We actually discussed them as potentially 73 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: being closer to an SEC contender in terms of how 74 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: they profile than some cute Sun Belt story. So what 75 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: do you think about Vandy. Do you actually like their 76 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: regional path or do you think it's a team that 77 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: could trip up in the supers against a team like USM. 78 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, we're going to talk about a lot 79 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 2: of numbers, so let's get it out of the way. 80 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 2: I project Vanderbilt minus two thirty five for this regional 81 00:03:57,640 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 2: They are minus two seventy, so it's pretty close to 82 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: what you have. But we've talked about this all season long. 83 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: Vanderbilt is a pitching and defense team. We said that 84 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 2: when they get into regions, they need to avoid big sticks, 85 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 2: big barrels, teams that can throw up a lot of runs. 86 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 2: Let's look at Etsu third in the nation, homers per nine, 87 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 2: fourth in the nation, and slugging. These are the kind 88 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,919 Speaker 2: of bats that they wanted to avoid. I think the 89 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 2: one thing that would also scare me about Etsu twenty 90 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 2: third in the nation in road RPI. These guys have 91 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: played on the road. Let's look at their resume here 92 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 2: what they took a short loss to Georgia on the road. 93 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 2: They had a victory at Tennessee during the month of March. 94 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 2: I know it was a couple months ago, but these 95 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 2: are the big boys in the SEC. They hung with Georgia, 96 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: they beat Tennessee. You know, Cooper Torres is the guy 97 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: that you're going to need to know here. I still 98 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: project Vanderbilt minus one seventy in the game, especially if 99 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 2: they have their star JD. Thompson going. But you know, 100 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 2: we don't know right now, it's too early, is Monday night. 101 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 2: We don't know if they're going to save Game one 102 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 2: starters for Game two. To put them up against the 103 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 2: better team. If they're going to throw maybe a scrap 104 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 2: heap out there in the first game against the four seed, 105 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 2: we will see. But Vanderbilt I make about minus one 106 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: seven overall for the region minus two thirty. I think 107 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 2: there's opportunity here to buy ETSU or at least buy 108 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 2: an over don't sleep on the Buccaneers. 109 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: I wrote it up this morning. It's gonna be in 110 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: Tuesday mornings New York Posts. I like LSU at seven 111 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: to one to win the College World Series, and a 112 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: big part of it was I wanted to see them 113 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: get an ideal path, particularly in the regionals, so they 114 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: don't have to break a sweat there at alex Box 115 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: and they have a cake walk. In my opinion, Little 116 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 1: Rock does not have an offense to keep up. And Dallas 117 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: Baptists and Rhode Island they had nice aces, but the 118 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 1: rest of their rotation, particularly when you get into their 119 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: bullpen as well, they can get exposed. You saw it 120 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: when Dallas Baptists hosted LSU earlier this season. Ryan borberg 121 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: A quitted himself really nicely, but he only pitched four innings. 122 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: That's generally what you're gonna get out of them. Once 123 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: they got into that Patriot Bullpen, LSU feasted. They won 124 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: seven to three on the road, So I like that matchup. 125 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 1: Same thing with Rhode Islands. I think if they can 126 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: get past their STARTERSNA, there's gonna be some crooked numbers 127 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: in the later innings in those games. What do you 128 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 1: think about LSU overall, not just for the regionals, which 129 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 1: I think we can agree is pretty cushy, but after that, 130 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: their path to Omaha and then what they can do 131 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: in Omaha in that cavernous stadium. 132 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, so zero thought to my tweet earlier today the 133 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 2: second LSU was announced to who was in the regional 134 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 2: I think I tweeted LSU to the Supers minus nine 135 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 2: nine nine nine nine nine nine. I now have done 136 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 2: the numbers. I project LSU minus four twenty five. Last 137 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,239 Speaker 2: I looked at the market. We recorded minus three ninety 138 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 2: minus three ninety out there in the market. And really 139 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 2: what you're looking at with Dallas Baptist is you're looking 140 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 2: at a team that has a similar strength of schedule, 141 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 2: similar offensive numbers to LSU. Actually strength to schedule, you know, 142 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 2: right there at the same so you kind of do 143 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: count their offensive numbers to be the same, but when 144 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 2: it comes to the pitching, it is just a huge 145 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 2: stark contrast out there. So Dallas bapt Is going to 146 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 2: have to play their best ball this season. They' gonna 147 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: have to throw their best of the season. And when 148 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: you've got Kate Anderson, who I think is going to 149 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 2: be okay, he kind of short changed it in an 150 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 2: SEC tournament, but Anthony Iinsen is still there. He only 151 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 2: got two innings in a the SEC tournament. They're going 152 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 2: to be completely fresh as a pitching staff that is 153 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 2: above and beyond what anything Dallas Baptists had that they 154 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 2: can throw. So I do like LSU, and I still 155 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 2: think there's value by about thirty forty cents in the 156 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 2: market on them once you get past that. I mean, 157 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 2: I'm glad that we talked about LSU in the futures market. 158 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 2: I don't think that they're going to have an issue 159 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 2: right now. If you can go out there and get 160 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 2: a number on LSU to make the College World Series, 161 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: I still think it's a good number. I just don't 162 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 2: see a path. I'm glad it fell for us, especially 163 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: we're going to talk about the Clemson Regional. It could 164 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: be a free for all. I think there's a little 165 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: misspricing in the market, so we'll talk about that one later. 166 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: But I don't fear Kentucky Westford. I definitely don't fear 167 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: West Virginia. I don't ever fear anybody for the Big twelve, 168 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 2: and I don't fear Clemson whatsoever. 169 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: It's interesting with LSU's rotation. You mentioned the top two guys, 170 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: Kate Anderson in particular. When he's absolutely feeling it and 171 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: his breaking stuff is on point, he looks like a 172 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: junior version of Max Freed from the New York Yankees 173 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: as a lefty, as someone who can strike out a 174 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: lot of batters. And that's what it's going to be 175 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: required should they get to Omah. It's not enough to 176 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: have one super ace. You have to be able to 177 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: throw two guys up there that you can count on 178 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: to win low scoring games. And he's someone who can 179 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: go deep into games and strike out double digit players 180 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: or batters. As you say, all right, let's get into 181 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: the next one. In terms of an ideal road out 182 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: of the regional, we like Georgia here because they should 183 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: be able to bomb their way through Binghamton. Shout out 184 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: to a Sunni School, Duke and Oklahoma State, and you 185 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: mentioned some interesting under the hood stats about Duke's pitching 186 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: staff that make them an ideal candidate to get run 187 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 1: off the diamond against the Bulldogs. 188 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 2: Well, first off, Bigham to an zero to five against 189 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 2: Quad one and Quad two play. It was nice to 190 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 2: show up strength to schedule twote in fifty fifth. This 191 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 2: is going to be bad. I don't matter. If you 192 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: can find a team total on Georgia over the first 193 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 2: game might be a good way to take. So I 194 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 2: wanted to consider Duke here because what you do with 195 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,439 Speaker 2: these regionals is is they're going to be overpriced. Right 196 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 2: if you think tariffs and if you think inflation is bad, 197 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 2: some of these numbers on these regional hosts are pretty 198 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,959 Speaker 2: bad too. And with the idea of Georgia is you 199 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 2: kind of want to go in look at Duke in 200 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 2: Oklahoma State and say where can I shoot holes in 201 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 2: this product? Well, with Duke, I mean they're excellent at fielding, 202 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 2: they're top thirteen fielding, they're homers per nine, top fifteen, 203 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 2: on base top fifteen, and then you look at some. 204 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: Of their pitching. 205 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 2: But was I started to do a little bit more 206 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 2: research you ask yourself, what is it I have to 207 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 2: do to beat Georgia. Well, they're number one in the 208 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 2: nation in homers per nine. The bombs absolutely fly, and 209 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 2: they're playing in their home park. And you would think 210 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 2: that the Duke of the past, with the pitching that 211 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 2: they have, would bring the pedigree that would be able 212 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 2: to stop a lot of this Georgia bombs that are happening. 213 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 2: But if you do a little bit of research, there 214 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 2: are three hundred and seven teams in Division one baseball. 215 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 2: Duke is two hundred and ninetieth and home run to 216 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: fly ball rate that is not an anomaly. Everything that 217 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 2: goes up in the air goes out of the park. 218 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 2: It's something like seventeen percent. It is horrible and that 219 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 2: is not gonna fly against Georgia. I do actually price 220 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,599 Speaker 2: this as if Georgia is too much, I make it 221 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: Georgia minus two twenty five. I see minus three ten 222 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 2: in the market. Not sure what you want to do 223 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:44,079 Speaker 2: with that, But with a stat where the home run 224 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 2: fly ball rate is so bad for Duke, I don't 225 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: know if you just lay that or you play a 226 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 2: game to game, but there's no way there's any other 227 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: decision besides Georgia. 228 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 1: Here we'll close this out. Oregon didn't capture their super 229 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: regional seed as plans. They flame out early and pool 230 00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: play the Big Ten Tournament against Nebraska, but they do 231 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: get Arizona Cal Polly in Utah Valley awaiting them in 232 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: the gorgeous Home Diamond in Eugene. Maybe they get lucky 233 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: on the other side of this in Nebraska or Oklahoma 234 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 1: upsets North Carolina and they get to play in Eugene 235 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: all the way and sell Omaha. But I mean, I 236 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: guess you can make the argument Nebraska, the court Huskers 237 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 1: have really quitted themselves well against top competition, including knocking 238 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: off that same exact Duck team as I mentioned in 239 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 1: the conference tournament. What do you think the odds are 240 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 1: of an upset on that UNC side? And if so, 241 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: does this Oregon Road all of a sudden look really 242 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 1: good again? 243 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 2: I like them in the regionals, I do. I think 244 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 2: it's a completely mispriced in the market. Oregon minus two 245 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 2: ten as we were recording this, I make it minus 246 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 2: two ninety. I've got them at about minus one seventy, 247 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 2: minus two thirty and minus two hundred and the three 248 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 2: projected games that they would play. Arizona has completely flamed 249 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 2: out here at the end of the season. I'm I mean, 250 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 2: if they would have played another two or three weeks 251 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 2: regular season, Arizona might not even have made the damn tournament. 252 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: So I don't see any resistance here in the regionals. 253 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 2: But you're about to run into the hottest team which 254 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 2: I think in the nation, maybe a team that North 255 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 2: Carolina that I absolutely believe can hang with any SEC 256 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 2: team out there, and Oregon's gonna have to go cross 257 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 2: country play on the East coast. We don't know what 258 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 2: the weather's gonna be yet in Oregon. We don't know 259 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 2: if it's one of those things where they could get 260 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 2: delayed to day, but then that's going to take them 261 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 2: a whole day to travel to the other coast and play. 262 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: I don't think it's a gratuitous path, especially if they're 263 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 2: playing North Carolina. I'm not sure if I see North 264 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 2: Carolina get knocked out either. So I do like Oregon 265 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 2: in the regionals. I think it's a good price at 266 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:26,599 Speaker 2: minus two ten, But that might be the end of 267 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 2: the road for the Ducks. And man, you and I 268 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 2: talked about it all year. Is orgon stat or Oregon 269 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 2: gonna get the eight and nine seed. Who's gonna benefit 270 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 2: from that? Even though Oregon swept Oregon State, they kind 271 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: of got screwed here and this path going to North 272 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 2: Carolina is not not a good path with them whatsoever. 273 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: All Right, we talked about some of the cakewalk regionals. 274 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the nightmare Draws Coastal. Congrats, what a 275 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: great season. You got to compete with Florida as your 276 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 1: two seed in your regional. That seems unfair to me 277 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: for a team with an RPI of eighth in the country. 278 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 1: But you can't count out Kevin Schnall what he's been 279 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: able to accomplish right away in his debut season in Conway. 280 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: But still, that's yeomen's work rate out of the shoot 281 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: for a team that was hoping to have some tin 282 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: cans there in their region. 283 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, and you do. The committee was going to do 284 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 2: this right. Somebody was going to have to deal with Florida. 285 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 2: Somebody was gonna have to get a two seed in Florida, 286 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 2: a team that was not going to be in the 287 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 2: tournament a month ago, a team that kind of blew 288 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 2: their way through a lot of SEC strongholds and worked 289 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 2: their way all the way up to a two. And 290 00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 2: now what you see is Coastal Carolina, and I see 291 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 2: lions bouncing around for Florida that are favorites on everybody 292 00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 2: not named Coastal. And there's only one pitcher that would 293 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 2: be a favorite for Coastal over Florida. The other lines 294 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 2: would be about minus one fifteen in the favor of Florida. 295 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 2: I make this a fifty five percent price for Coastal 296 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: that puts them at about a minus one fifteen to 297 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 2: a minus one twenty. Florida's hanging around out there at 298 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 2: Florida plus one fifteen. I think the best thing you 299 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 2: can do with this region, so I do show just 300 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 2: minimal value, maybe dime to a twenty cents value on Florida. 301 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 2: I think the best thing you do is you take 302 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 2: the dog here in the SEC team. It will not 303 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 2: be a dog by the time they get to first pitch. 304 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 2: By the time this region kicks off, everybody's going to 305 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 2: flood in on Florida and say, who the hell is 306 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 2: this Coastal Carolina team. I would get the plus money 307 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:04,839 Speaker 2: on Florida the second it flips to them being a 308 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 2: favorite for the regional I would stop and maybe switch 309 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 2: around and get coastal and try to go the other way. 310 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: So this is definitely a hedge and live play type scenario. 311 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 2: I just see more money coming in on Florida by 312 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 2: the end of the week. That kind of flips these numbers. 313 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: The red nuclear phone is ringing. Here in my office, 314 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 1: we have a gambling emergency UCLA drawing. You see Irvine 315 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: a team that spent a portion of the season inside 316 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: of the top ten, and you can get a decent 317 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: price on the ant eaters. Walk me through what is 318 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 1: going on? What sportsbooks are missing there. 319 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 2: I don't know why they put this. I think there 320 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: are I don't know. I don't want to fence some 321 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: people I know that listen to this. I think some 322 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 2: oddsmakers are putting up numbers just based on the regional seating. 323 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 2: If you'd like to know, you see Irvine was in 324 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 2: contention to be a super regional seed as of just 325 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. Now all of a sudden, 326 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 2: they're coming in here as a two seed. I would 327 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 2: make you see Irvine favored over UCLA and every single 328 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 2: pitching matchup you could put together. You want to go 329 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 2: a little bit further, the number three seed would be 330 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 2: within ten to twenty cents of a Pickham every game 331 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 2: against UC Irvine. So what we have here is a 332 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 2: series price that I literally make it about like forty 333 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 2: eight percent for Arizona State, a little bit lower for 334 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 2: UC Irvine. And I don't give UCLA a shot at 335 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: all here. I think Arizona State plus three sixty out there, 336 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 2: that's a joke. I mean, they should be more around 337 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 2: plus one twenty u se Irvine should be around plus 338 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 2: one twenty, and UCLA should be nowhere near being the 339 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 2: favorite in I mean, what are they minus won ten 340 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 2: a couple places in the market. So the best value 341 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: on the board by far is Arizona State. The best 342 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 2: team that should win this is UC Irvine. 343 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: Last week, when we talked about how team's profile one 344 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: that was kind of flying under the radar despite playing 345 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: in the pre eminent conference in all of college baseball, 346 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 1: it's Mississippi State. The fact of the matter is, you know, 347 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: in terms of their home run potential and what their 348 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: staff brings to the table er fip X FIP they 349 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: look better on paper than a Texas team that's been 350 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: going in the wrong direction for the past month. Now 351 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: they're placed in that Florida State region in t Alahassie 352 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: as well as a potential Cinderella in Northeastern. The Huskies 353 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: were the only team in America to post a sub 354 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: three staff er. All three of their starters had sub 355 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: one whips and they gave up eleven home runs those 356 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 1: three starters all season long. So when you talk about 357 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: the recipe, can you really pitch and can you avoid 358 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: those big innings? The Huskies have it so Florida State. 359 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: I mean, this probably is the biggest nightmare for a 360 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: top team that's hosting because if Jamie Arnold does not 361 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: pitch his best and they get into a game where 362 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: it's tied in the late innings and they have to 363 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: go to their pen, it could be, you know, an 364 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: early exit for the Seminoles. Do you agree? 365 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 2: I absolutely, one und percent agree this Florida State. We 366 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 2: have talked about. I even tweeted out hours before this 367 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 2: election show teams I'm looking to sell that are going 368 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 2: to be regional hosts. Florida State was one of them. 369 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: Teams I'm looking to buy their two and three seeds. 370 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 2: Oh well, that was Northeastern Mississippi State, And it just 371 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 2: turned out that Florida State drew both of them. So 372 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 2: if we want to go from a numbers perspective, I 373 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 2: think the I think the market caught onto this. I 374 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: thought this was going to be a place where I 375 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: could hammer northeasternos, a place where I could probably get 376 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 2: some value on Mississippi State. But they came out and 377 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: made Florida State minus one twenty five about the same 378 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: price that I make Florida State right here. So I 379 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 2: really I think this is one of those things where 380 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 2: you're gonna have to wait until you get the pitching matchups. 381 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 2: You're gonna want to have the most advantageous one for 382 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 2: Mississippi State and Northeastern the winner of that game. You 383 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 2: want to see if they hold back their two number 384 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 2: one starters to play Florida State in the second game, 385 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 2: and then you're probably gonna have to gauge who is 386 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 2: the better second starter for those teams in case they 387 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 2: do throw their first starters against each other. And I'm 388 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: talking about Northeastern and Mississippi State. So the winner of 389 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 2: Northeaster n Mississippi State, I will absolutely be playing against 390 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 2: Florida State. From a series price perspective, the oddsmakers actually 391 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 2: did a really good job here by making Florida State 392 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 2: so short, because this was one where I wanted to 393 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 2: hammer a dog go. 394 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: Yard all baseball season long with Underdog's pick them game. 395 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: Underdog is one of the leading sports apps, and you 396 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: can play now in your state. Millions of fans have 397 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: already won billions making picks on Underdog. Will you be 398 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: the next one to play? All you have to do 399 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: is download the app, choose whether player will go higher 400 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: or lower on one of their stats, and you can 401 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: choose from things like home runs, strikeouts, total bases, and 402 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: much more. Once your pick feels good, you can lock 403 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 1: it in and you can play for as little as 404 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,199 Speaker 1: one dollar. If you get everything right, you can win 405 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: up to one thousand times your money. I've been playing 406 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 1: any and all hitters facing the Rockies. Guess what that's allowed, folks. 407 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 1: And what's great about Underdog is you can tail or 408 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: fade anyone you like and take it right to the bank. 409 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: Download the Underdog app and sign up with the promo 410 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: code BBOC to unlock a special offer for up to 411 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: one thousand dollars in bonus cash when you make your 412 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 1: first deposit. That's promo code BBOC must be eighteen plus, 413 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,880 Speaker 1: nineteen plus in Alabama and Nebraska, nineteen plus in Colorado 414 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: for some games, twenty one plus in Massachusetts and Arizona, 415 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: and present in a state where Underdog Fantasy operates, terms 416 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: apply void In Colorado. Concerned with your play, call one 417 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: eight hundred Gambler or visit NCP Gambling dot Org. Arizona 418 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: call one eight hundred next step or text next step 419 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 1: to five three three four to two. In New York, 420 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: called the twenty four to seven Hope line at one 421 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: eight seven to seven eight hope en why or text 422 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 1: hope and why? All right, on to Texas, who we've 423 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 1: you know, made a big stink. We called him a 424 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: paper tiger. We've said all the nasty things that we 425 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: can say about the Longhorns, and realistically, Troy Tulowitzsky, they're hitting. Coach, 426 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:15,959 Speaker 1: he's got to pull a rapid out of the hat 427 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: because they've got to start hitting again. Otherwise I think 428 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: he's got to find a new job down there on 429 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: the forty Acres because this was a team that was 430 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: number one in the country and all of a sudden 431 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: they look dysfunctional. And here you go again, Colin Wilson 432 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: speaking something in existence. You were like, it would be 433 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: great if we get a UTSA Texas rematch after the 434 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: Roadrunners beat him an extras eight to seven earlier in 435 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: the season. Well, lo and behold, we got it. Do 436 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: you think they're going to bounce ut in the spot? 437 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 2: I feel like we're repeating a podcast we already recorded. 438 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 2: I said I want UTSA against Texas in this region 439 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 2: as a two seed, and there are reasons why we 440 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 2: wanted UTSA. There are reasons why we ended that podcast 441 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 2: saying we won one hundred and twenty five to one 442 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 2: on the road Runners. I had no issues dusting off 443 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 2: the old hashtaga meap on the Twitter earlier today. It 444 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 2: felt so good to get that one out there. Listen, Utsa. 445 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 2: They took Texas to extra innings, got that win. They 446 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 2: finished a conference record twenty three and four, one of 447 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,719 Speaker 2: the best on base percentages in the nation. They can 448 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: absolutely slap the ball and drown you to death, a 449 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 2: top thirty road RPI, a twelve and six Quad one, 450 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 2: Quad two record, which means UTSA is going to have 451 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 2: a lot of room here to give damage to a 452 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 2: Texas team that just really hasn't found an identity since 453 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 2: Jared Spencer went down ruber ri Joas has been a 454 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: lot of fun to fade, made us a lot of 455 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 2: money going up against the Longhorns. UTSA is thirteenth in 456 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 2: the nation in scoring. That is just not a fluke whatsoever, 457 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 2: no matter who they face. We've been fading this Texas 458 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 2: staff because of their x FIP, which is more than 459 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 2: a run and a half lower than I'm sorry, higher 460 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 2: than their eer and that regression has come in. So 461 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: I do love UTSA three to one in this I 462 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 2: have no hesitation. I don't think there's gonna be a 463 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 2: hedge against Texas. We're gonna let this one right on UTSA. 464 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: Would you agree that ut in terms of the super 465 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: regional seeds, is the most likely to flame out in 466 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: those top eight teams one percent? 467 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 2: I mean, there are others out there that we've talked about. 468 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:06,640 Speaker 2: There are others that are mispriced. There is a difference 469 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 2: between mispriced and where I actually believe I'm gonna bet 470 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 2: an underdog and I'm gonna let it ride, and that 471 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 2: is UTSA all the way. 472 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: Now, talk to me about your Cinderella. I mentioned you 473 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: see Irvine being mispriced out there in the market. I 474 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: don't think they technically, you know, qualify as a Cinderella, 475 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,439 Speaker 1: but certainly if they make it to Omaha as a 476 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: team that's not hosting, that would be impressive. Do you 477 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 1: start with the and Eaters or there are other teams 478 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: on your radar? 479 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 2: Yeah? I think the winner of Arizona State UC Irvine 480 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 2: would be considered a Cinderella, just because they're both going 481 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 2: to be underdogs. But if you go away from that, 482 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm gonna say this, but Creighton twelve 483 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 2: to one in the Arkansas Fabled Regional. Look, do I 484 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 2: think that Arkansas is going to go down here? Absolutely not. 485 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 2: I think their offense is just head and toes beyond 486 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 2: anything that's coming in there, and that includes Kansas. The 487 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 2: problem is is when you look at Creighton, they actually 488 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 2: do have some semblance of a pitching staff fifteenth and 489 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 2: era forty first and whip fourth and team er. I'm 490 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 2: sorry they have a four teen er ray. Their x 491 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: FIP is a little bit lower than that. But Creighton, 492 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 2: you know, I mean, if anybody is in this that 493 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 2: I think can make some rumbling, it's more Creighton than 494 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:17,479 Speaker 2: it is Kansas. And I think to further elaborate on that. 495 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 2: It's really about price. Do I think my Hogs are 496 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 2: going to lose, Absolutely not. But this is a regional 497 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 2: where I think that they should be priced more around 498 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 2: minus four hundred. I think Zach rud is going to 499 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 2: be about minus seventeen hundred and that first game against 500 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 2: Nolan Johnson and North Dakota State. But I think Creighton 501 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 2: absolutely has a shot. I make the minus one fifteen 502 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 2: in their first game against Kansas. I will be taking 503 00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 2: Creighton in the first game against Kansas, and after that, 504 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 2: you're sitting around with the twelve to one and you're 505 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 2: gonna try to beat Arkansas twice. I'm not really sure 506 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 2: that's going to happen. I'm not really sure you're gonna 507 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 2: be able to hedge it. But this number should be 508 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: more closer to Arkansas minus five hundred, not Arkansas minus 509 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 2: seven fifty. So Creighton twelve to one. Is it a 510 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 2: Cinderella that I think can win? Probably not, but it 511 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 2: is an absolute huge long shot that I think has 512 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 2: a path out. Let's just keep this other stuff aside. Yeah, 513 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 2: Arkansas has been losing a lot lately. Let's just kind 514 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 2: of forget that for the regionals. Weekend and bring it 515 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 2: back up for Tennessee. But things have not been real 516 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 2: glorious with this Arkansas bullpen. We have been talking about 517 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,479 Speaker 2: it for weeks, weeks and weeks that we are only 518 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 2: we as in the Razorbacks. That means me, we are 519 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 2: only going to go as far as the bullpen is 520 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 2: going to lead us, and that bullpen has shown no 521 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 2: signs of life over the last month. Can Creton expose that. 522 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 2: I'm not sure they're two hundreds and home runs per nine. 523 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 2: We'll see which way the wind is blowing a bomb walker, 524 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 2: but twelve to one is an absolutely ridiculous price. 525 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 1: Thoughts in prayers to you, Colin, catch you up because 526 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: the storyline's going to be you know, they've won thirteen 527 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 1: of fourteen. Can they get back to their home Diamond 528 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: and Oma. Yeah, a lot of people fading Arkansas, at 529 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: least emotionally, just for the narrative, and I know you 530 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 1: don't need any more of that added pressure to get 531 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: the Hogs finally to Omaha and have an opportunity to 532 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: see this pitching staff do their thing on the biggest 533 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: stage that the sport has to offer. All right, let's 534 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: transition to your best bets in terms of winning regionals. 535 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 1: Let's start with the Clemson Tigers, who are basically going 536 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 1: off at even money. 537 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Clemson. I believe they're in there at 538 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 2: plus one fifteen. This is not a number that I 539 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 2: make whatsoever. I make Clemson minus two ten to minus 540 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,199 Speaker 2: one ninety, and all of their games are lined and 541 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 2: they're pitching, is what is the difference here? West Virginia 542 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 2: is absolutely West Virginia is not a good team whatsoever. 543 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 2: They've kind of been exposed inside of Big twelve play, 544 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 2: so there's really no threat there. As much as I 545 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,239 Speaker 2: think Clemson is kind of a dumpster fire, and they 546 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,920 Speaker 2: showed it. I shouldn't say dumpster fire, but their AEC 547 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 2: tournament play, there's just so many mistakes being made out 548 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 2: in the field. They didn't get timely hits. Georgia Tech 549 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 2: is a better team than them in the ACC. North 550 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 2: Carolina is a much better team than them in the AEC, 551 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:46,959 Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean that Clemson is dog shit. Clemson 552 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 2: should be more like minus two ninety. They should not 553 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 2: be at plus one ten, one fifteen, whatever. I would 554 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 2: take that all the way up to minus one fifty 555 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: on the Tigers as far as the best bet goes 556 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:56,640 Speaker 2: for regionals. 557 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, when you look at West Virginia Jack cartsonas I 558 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: hope I'm saying that name right, What a great story 559 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: to go from John Carroll to Kent State to West 560 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 1: Virginia basically back of their bullpen to then being elevated 561 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: in the rotation. But he just doesn't have the experience 562 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: you would imagine, you know, to be able to get through. 563 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: There is that where it starts with, you know, the 564 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 1: head to head when you look at a potential in 565 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: nears versus tiger's matchup. 566 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly where you look and you kind of 567 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 2: put those head to heads together and really this is 568 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 2: a huge mismatch in West Virginia has kind of been 569 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 2: a paper Tiger all year when you build some of 570 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 2: these stats, which they weren't great in the first place, 571 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 2: and they essentially played nobody in the Quad one Quad 572 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 2: two the entire season had one of the softest schedules 573 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 2: out there. So I think Clemson, I think that experience, 574 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 2: I think they are extremely well coached with bakag So 575 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 2: Clemson all the way here is the best bet. I 576 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 2: would also make organ as the best bet. We also 577 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 2: talked about them already at minus two ten. I think 578 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 2: that is way too low. That should be minus two ninety. 579 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 2: So Oregon and Clemson, if you want to put those 580 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 2: together in a parlay, or if you want to just 581 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 2: play them each separately, I think they're both good, great 582 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 2: bets for regils. 583 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 1: Just to double click into that Oregon Regional in Eugene, 584 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: Utah Valley, Cal Poly Arizona. You've waxed poetically about why 585 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 1: Arizona basically doesn't even deserve to be here any fear 586 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,520 Speaker 1: factor from what you know either the lineups or the 587 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: staffs bring to the table for the Mustangs or the Wolverines. 588 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,200 Speaker 2: I think cal Poly is the team that you would watch. 589 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 2: They were a bubble team. They have been playing very 590 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 2: well that nobody's been talking about. So if there was 591 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 2: a team that I think they could poke their head 592 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 2: up here on the Ducks and give them a little trouble, 593 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 2: I would probably pay attention to the head to head 594 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 2: matchup and the pitching projections that I'll be putting out 595 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 2: on three straight for cal Poly in Oregon once it 596 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 2: gets to that point. 597 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: I won't mention the sports book, but there were a few, 598 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 1: actually more than one that put out will any four 599 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 1: seed make it to Omaha? And the best value I 600 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: saw out there was plus one thy ten to one. 601 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 1: I mean, that's a hard pass for me. I assume 602 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: it is for you as well as someone who lives 603 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: the actual numbers. What number would it need to be 604 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: to entice you? 605 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,719 Speaker 2: I would take an eighteen to one. I've already kind 606 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 2: of priced that out. You know, I'm looking for some 607 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,359 Speaker 2: of the shortest four seeds out there. You know, I 608 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 2: think Vanderbilt should be about minus two thirty on Right 609 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 2: State in their first game. But I'm in Remember, Vanderbilt 610 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 2: can go really cold on the hitting, and if that happens, 611 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 2: they're in trouble. But fune Cookman, I don't all the 612 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 2: worst teams in the nation, but I don't have a 613 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,439 Speaker 2: lot of faith in Florida State. I only make Florida 614 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 2: State about a minus two seventy five in that first game. 615 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: And I don't know what's going on with cam Tilly's numbers. 616 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 2: But if it's not Samuel Dunton and it's Cam Tilly 617 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 2: against Central Connecticut State, I only make Auburn about a 618 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 2: minus one fifty favorite over Central Connecticut State. So there 619 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 2: are chances here but if you put all these numbers together, 620 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:32,880 Speaker 2: which I did earlier today, I would need at least 621 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 2: in eighteen to one to say that a four seed 622 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 2: is going to pull through this. Listen, there are oral 623 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,400 Speaker 2: Roberts out there there. We've had four seeds finally pull 624 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 2: it off. But I think that you know, this year, 625 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 2: I'm going to stay away from it. I think the 626 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 2: books have caught on that people are in love with underdogs, 627 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 2: especially four seeds. Everyone has that memory of that four 628 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 2: seed that advanced. So I'm gonna stay away from an 629 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 2: Eighteen to one is the number that I've won. 630 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: We've been slowly adding to our portfolio. It's been kind 631 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 1: of SEC heavy throughout the season, but you know, for 632 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 1: lots of obvious reasons, those are where the best teams are, 633 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: and some of those numbers just in terms of the 634 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 1: pecking order, if you're the seventh best team in the SEC, 635 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,439 Speaker 1: you still got a chance to win the national championship 636 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: once you get to you know, regionals and super regionals 637 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: depending on your draw. Pair it up with the right number. 638 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 1: All of a sudden, it looks pretty enticing, but you're 639 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,120 Speaker 1: going outside the SEC to add one Before we kick 640 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: off this tournament. Yeah. 641 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 2: North Carolina. They're out there ten to one right now, 642 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 2: and I think that this is a great path for them. 643 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 2: If they win their regional, which they should, they need 644 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,199 Speaker 2: to avoid the Kaison Witherspoon buzzsaw. If they can do that, 645 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 2: or at least survive maybe losing a game to them 646 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 2: and coming back, they're going to be fine here. North 647 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 2: Carolina absolutely is playing some of the best baseball in 648 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,879 Speaker 2: the nation, and that includes all the SEC teams that 649 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,400 Speaker 2: are out there. North Carolina has the pedigree to even 650 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 2: play in the SEC right now. They could transfer into 651 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,720 Speaker 2: the conference and be just fine as a team that 652 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 2: is top five an er staff era staff Whip. They 653 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 2: have a team ERA of three point four, their fielding 654 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 2: percentages thirty fourth. You could kind of call this a 655 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,199 Speaker 2: Vanderbilt type team, but they can hit their homers per 656 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 2: nine right now is any first and that's done nothing 657 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 2: but increase over the last two weeks. And plus what 658 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 2: if we talked about on this podcast. Jake Napp is 659 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 2: the workhorse of this team, but Jason Dacaro is the 660 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 2: one that's been on fire over the last month, last 661 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 2: six weeks. He has been producing is now up to 662 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 2: the number two starter on this team. Not only that, 663 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,560 Speaker 2: I do like their path now. The Sooners are the 664 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 2: ones that I would look out for. Right if I 665 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 2: had a North Carolina ticket to make Omaha, or if 666 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 2: I had a futures ticket, I would look really hard 667 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 2: if they ran into Kyson Witherspoon and Oklahoma. Other than that, 668 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 2: I love the path of them hosting potentially Oregon or 669 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 2: a West Coast team out there on the East Coast. 670 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 2: That is a lot of travel, and we've seen all 671 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 2: year that when these Stanford's and cows are playing the 672 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 2: Boston colleges of that it's just some funky shit that 673 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 2: happens where the teams just don't identify as who they 674 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 2: truly are at home. So I like North Carolina being 675 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 2: at home. It looks like besides Ou, they could have 676 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 2: a clean path, not facing any SEC teams and get 677 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 2: to the College World Series, where potentially, I think this 678 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 2: is the thing that's kind of crazy, they would go 679 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 2: in there as a five seed and I would actually 680 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 2: make them a favorite over the four seed, which is Auburn, 681 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 2: if Auburn was to make it all the way. So 682 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,400 Speaker 2: to me, that's Scream's future. 683 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: The beauty of working with you is. I know that 684 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: you're in the numbers. You're producing these you know, models 685 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: and projections, and when you put something out the market moves, 686 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: and that's great. But also on the other side, you're 687 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: a fan, You're in your bat cave, you got the 688 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 1: five leaving Cup, you're actually watching the games. It's not 689 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 1: just all analytics. So let's put aside the numbers for 690 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 1: a minute. And I got too first, which team do 691 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: you think is coming into this with the most pressure 692 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 1: on their shoulders and not the good kind of pressure, 693 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,120 Speaker 1: not bringing out the best. It's you cannot choke. Maybe 694 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: you've choked in the past. Maybe it's a manager who 695 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 1: needs to get over. Maybe it's a player that needs 696 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 1: to show that all add a down season, but I 697 00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: can turn it all around my draft stock and go 698 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 1: in the right direction with two good weeks at baseball. 699 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 1: Which team do you think is dealing with the most 700 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 1: pressure coming in I. 701 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: Would never say that Arkansas has pressure, but we haven't 702 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 2: been to the College World Series in three years. We 703 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 2: have built a cathedral of fans and facilities to win 704 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 2: the College World Series and we haven't made it since 705 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. It has been embarrassing to let purple 706 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 2: teams from the Big twelve come in in the supers 707 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 2: and essentially kick our ass. I think there's a lot 708 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 2: of pressure on Arkansas. But the good news is is 709 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 2: most of these kids haven't been on those prior teams, 710 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 2: so they may not feel that pressure. But there are 711 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 2: a ton of teams out here that are really feeling pressure. 712 00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 2: Does Tennessee feel pressure, No, they were just in the 713 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 2: championship game. They just won the national championship. They don't 714 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 2: feel pressure at all. Does LSU No, they have a 715 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 2: championship under their belt. Then there's other teams like Coastal Carolina. 716 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 2: Do you feel pressure as an underdog from the Sun 717 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 2: Belt Conference? Probably not. But Southern misses a program as 718 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 2: a team that is always their regional super regions and 719 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 2: they just absolutely cannot get over the hump. I think 720 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 2: that they are definitely feeling a little bit of that. 721 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 2: But Texas, you go out there, schloss decides to what leave. 722 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 2: TCU makes a stopover in Texas A and M because 723 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 2: it's the championship game. 724 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 1: Now he's a Texas. 725 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 2: They hold the number one spot here for multiple weeks, 726 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 2: they've tailed off. Is there pressure on Texas? I think 727 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,760 Speaker 2: there absolutely is the chance to choke here because that 728 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 2: entire team is starting to feel pressure and they just 729 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 2: have not played the same in about a month. And 730 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,040 Speaker 2: with Schloss as your coach, you can see like in 731 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 2: his interviews, like he's like, well, we just kind of 732 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 2: had a misfortune. 733 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 1: Now we've got injuries. 734 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 2: Like there's a lot of excuses here for Schlaws in Texas, 735 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 2: but I'm sure since his first year he's not really 736 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 2: feeling any pressure. Similar to Arkansas Florida State and their 737 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 2: issues with not winning a College World Series are a 738 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 2: real problem. There's a lot of pressure on FSU here. 739 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,640 Speaker 2: I agree with that. I think those are just a 740 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 2: few of them where you know, some of the teams 741 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 2: are feeling like a little bit more pressure and I 742 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,280 Speaker 2: think it will come into games. Arkansas Florida State being 743 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 2: one of those ones. We're just from the program and 744 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,120 Speaker 2: the fan base expectations are that if you don't get 745 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 2: to oman on, you don't get to the Championship Series, 746 00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 2: your season is a failure. 747 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,719 Speaker 1: The last one odds agnostic just looking at the teams 748 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 1: that are coming in playing the best baseball right now, 749 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: and it can be difficult. Because I mentioned earlier Creighton's 750 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 1: won thirteen or thirteen of fourteen. Great for the Blue Jays. 751 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 1: You're not in a power conference. You're not going through 752 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 1: this gauntlet of pitchers on a series by series basis. 753 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 1: That being said, which team it could be from an 754 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: SEC or an ACC or one of these teams from 755 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 1: the smaller conferences that got hot. Do you just look 756 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: at right now the way that they're playing. They can 757 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: win scoring eight or nine runs, they can win two 758 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 1: to one, they can they just seem to win, and 759 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,480 Speaker 1: you're feeling in your bones confident that they'll pull a 760 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 1: rabbit out of their hat here, at least in the originals. 761 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 2: I don't want to fade Northeastern. I don't want to 762 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,720 Speaker 2: fade in North Carolina. I don't want to fade Auburn's offense. 763 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 2: Those are just three that immediately I know that I 764 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,800 Speaker 2: didn't play in this question. Those are the three that 765 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 2: immediately came off at the top of my head. You know, 766 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 2: UTSA is playing right now with all the confidence in 767 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,120 Speaker 2: the world, especially when you're going to a regional host 768 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: that you've beaten before and have experience against. UC Irvine 769 00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 2: is probably really pissed off about where they are and 770 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 2: if they even check the odds market, they're even going 771 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 2: to be more pissed off. I think the ant Eaters 772 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 2: are going to come in with a chip on their shoulder. So, 773 00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,000 Speaker 2: you know, I think Ole miss is one of the 774 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 2: teams Hunter Elliott. They've got a great ace there. I 775 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 2: think it's great for them to get back to you know, 776 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 2: after winning a national championship a couple of years ago. 777 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 2: They feel like they deserve to be there. So I 778 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,160 Speaker 2: think there's another one where they just have the pedigree 779 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:12,560 Speaker 2: as a team to go ahead and make it. But 780 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 2: off the top of my head, those are the team 781 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,240 Speaker 2: I would not fade North Carolina. I would not fade Northeastern, 782 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,560 Speaker 2: and that Auburn offense has just been hit piss missiles 783 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 2: for the last month. 784 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,680 Speaker 1: They'll do it for today's episode, Thanks again for joining 785 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 1: us and getting fired up for the upcoming NCAA tournament. 786 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 1: In the college baseball universe, it's all leading to Omaha, 787 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 1: but it's got to start with the regionals and I'm 788 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 1: glad that we could walk you through. Special thanks to 789 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: Colin Wilson for giving us all of his plays is 790 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,720 Speaker 1: under the Hood analytics and some of his gut plays 791 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: and emotional elements with the Arkansas Razorbacks. Hopefully we can 792 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 1: get the Hogs and Collin into the College World Series 793 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 1: this year, and of course the special thanks to our sponsor, 794 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy. I'm your host Mike Calabrey's. We will return 795 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 1: next week to break down even more College World Series. 796 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 1: Best of luck with all your bets, and. 797 00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 3: We'll see you here next time at the Big It's 798 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:10,920 Speaker 3: on campus podcasts. 799 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,399 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 800 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 801 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 802 00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 3: hundred Gambler