WEBVTT - Bonus: Will the pandemic forever change America's place on the world stage? 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:04.880 Hi everyone, I'm Katie Curic, and welcome to Next Question. Today. 0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:07.800 I wanted to look outside the US for a moment 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:12.119 and consider the bigger global picture. The US has taken 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:14.840 a clear step back from its leadership position on the 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:18.200 global stage, and countries around the world have been left 0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:21.759 to fend for themselves, which leads to my next question, 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:25.280 what will the new world order look like in the 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:29.600 wake of the coronavirus pandemic? And there's really no one 0:00:29.680 --> 0:00:33.360 better to ask than my guests for this special bonus episode, 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:37.400 Richard Hass. He's the president of the Council and Form Relations, 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:40.960 the author of the new book The World A Brief Introduction, 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:45.360 and definitely one of the smartest people I know. I 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.920 spoke with him about why he believes this crisis promises 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.199 to be less of a turning point than away station 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.680 along this same road the world's been traveling for the 0:00:55.720 --> 0:01:00.160 past few decades. Richard Hass. Great to have you on 0:01:00.320 --> 0:01:05.440 the podcast. Great to be had so Richard. Of course 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:07.720 we should mention we've known each other for a very 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:11.800 long time. Met Gosh, at this point, maybe thirty years 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:15.200 ago when you were in Washington. I'm much too young 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:17.640 for that to be possible, but but it was something 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:20.440 it might be about that you were still you were 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:24.560 a young reporter for the NBC affiliate in Washington, that's right. 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.600 And we met when we were in line at the 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.640 Social Safe Way in Washington, d C. And I just 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:32.400 started talking to you because I thought you seemed cute. 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:36.000 I was engaged at the time, and I was like, 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:40.000 I was like, well, we just have to kind of 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.760 because I think we're gonna sound like we know each 0:01:42.800 --> 0:01:45.000 other and we're kind of familiar. So I want people 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:49.080 to understand how and why. And I'll give the short version, Richard, 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:53.000 I'll give the abridge version. So basically, I saw this 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:56.600 guy he out on a nice tweet jacket with elbow patches, 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.880 some Hebrew national salami in his part, and I just 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.360 sort of started talking to him because I was always 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:05.160 trying to set my friend up with a with a 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:09.680 cute guy. And I found out, Richard, what was living 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.520 in d C. That he had gone to Harvard. By 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.040 the way, I just learned from your book and my research, 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.359 I didn't realize you were a Rhodes scholar. To Jesus, Richard, 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:31.760 you're quite the overachiever. Anyway, this conversation is only trouble anyway. 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.400 Long story short, he met my friend, they enjoyed each 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:39.720 other's company, and uh, but it wasn't a love connection. 0:02:39.840 --> 0:02:43.560 He ended up marrying someone else. I know, Susan Mark 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.960 and Daddy. He's a wonderful person and we're all still 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:50.680 friends to this day. And now you're frequent golf partner 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:54.600 of my husband's, John Muhlner. A high percentage of what 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:58.200 you just said is true. Okay, all right, We'll move 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:02.400 on to loftier topics Richard, and namely your new book 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:06.200 called The World a Brief Introduction, and I love what 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:09.600 motivated you to write this book? Can you tell that story? Richard? 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:13.120 I was doing something I don't frequently do, which was fishing, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:15.919 and I was with one of my best buddies and 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:18.760 his nephew was with him. This was a very bright 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:21.520 young man, about twenty or twenty one, I think he 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:24.600 was between his junior and senior years at Stanford. And 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:26.480 I asked him what he was studying there, and he 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:29.000 said computer sciences and he told me about it, and 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:31.280 then I said, I'm just curious because we can't have 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:34.320 a conversation about computer sciences because I don't know enough 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.520 to have a conversation. But what else are you studying? 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.640 For example, Uh, what kind of history courses are you taking? 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:44.280 And he said, well, I'm actually not taking any and 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:48.000 I said, oh, that's interesting. Well what about economics. No, 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.600 I'm not taking any of those either. We went through 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.080 a lot of the liberal arts curriculum, and the bottom 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.400 line is this bright young man was going to graduate 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:59.400 from one of the greatest universities in the world with 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:04.920 what I what was a really incomplete undergraduate education. And 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:07.320 when I got back to my office, we looked at 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:11.480 hundreds of colleges and universities around the United States, and 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:14.120 it turned out that his experience was anything but an exception. 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:19.120 But even though virtually every core campus offered courses on 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:23.440 foreign policy or international affairs or what have you, virtually none, 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.640 really only a handful required them for graduation. So if 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.479 you wanted to, you could not. You could navigate your 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:37.000 your requirements for graduation and essentially graduate without even a 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.240 rudimentary knowledge of this world that was going to change 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.520 your life. And what I thought I would try to 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.400 do in a in a single book is give people 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:48.200 the foundation, not to give them everything they need to 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.360 know much less how to think, but to give them 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:55.560 enough background so they would be better prepared to handle 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:58.080 the flood of news coming at them, to ask the 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:02.400 right questions, to think of out say, investments or business decisions. 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:05.120 And that was the goal here, to establish a kind 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:08.960 of foundational of floor level of global literacy for the 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:12.800 average citizen. I think it's a wonderful idea, Richard, because 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:16.599 I think not just your friend's nephew is in this boat, 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:20.240 but I think you know, even well educated people, the 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:23.880 world is so complicated. There's so much to keep up with. 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:27.599 It's virtually impossible, I think, unless you're the president of 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.320 the Council on Foreign Relations or this is your area 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:33.960 of expertise to really have a handle on it. Were 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.400 you able to boil it down and make it accessible 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:41.960 and understandable for for people honestly like me who is 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:46.240 excited about reading about some of these things, some for 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:48.920 the first time and some as a refresher. Of course, 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:53.240 that was the goal, and ultimately people will tell me 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.080 whether I succeeded. I worked hard at it was actually 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.520 a really difficult book to write for two reasons, and 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.719 you're you suggested both. One was to figure out what 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:05.080 to put in and what not to and when you 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:08.040 have it's almost like a buffet and you can put 0:06:08.080 --> 0:06:10.960 on your plate anything from a hundred different goals. How 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.760 do you decide what to take? So I took a 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.640 lot of laps around Central Park thinking about what it 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:21.000 was to include and what really wasn't uh necessary? And 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:24.960 then I had to really unpack the issues, not use jargon, 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:29.120 not assume that people knew some historical reference, had to 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.880 explain everything. I learned a lot in writing it, because 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:33.360 you know, I do this for a living and I've 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:36.120 been doing it for forty years. But in many cases 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.320 I didn't know everything I needed to know in order 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:42.520 to teach it or explain it. Look, it's interesting to 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:45.120 learn the basics of some of the history, or why 0:06:45.200 --> 0:06:47.800 is the Middle East such a messed up region? Or 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:51.320 why should we care about I wrote about global health 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:55.560 and pandemics before anyone knew what COVID nineteen was, or 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:59.920 just why is climate change such a problem. My goal 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:03.080 every step of the way was to connect it. The 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:06.680 subliminal question was why does the world matter? And therefore 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:10.520 why why? Why do you need to become somewhat more 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.760 knowledgeable about it? Someone somewhat more prepared to deal with it. 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:21.800 Why do you think people suddenly became so uneducated about civics, 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:26.160 about world affairs? Um, it seems like a real indictment 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:30.119 of our education system. Was it the shift in terms 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.080 of what we needed to to really learn about in 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:38.080 order to secure a good job when people graduated. Was it? 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:42.120 Was there a turning point? Does it coincide with the 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:47.360 US is I think increasing tendency to look inward? I mean, 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:50.320 how do you explain it, because it's actually very depressing 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:53.400 to me. Well, it's all of the above. I think 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:58.720 this country has a history of isolationism or continental country. 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:02.240 A lot goes on here, and when you think about it, 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:05.760 World War two, in the last seventy years, or really 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:09.320 the exception when the United States has been involved in 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:13.600 the world in an open ended way before then, was anything. 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.040 But in some ways, what we're seeing is a little 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:19.280 bit of a return to our tradition. I think with 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:23.240 the end of the Cold War this accelerated the sense was, well, 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:25.920 we can now put our feet up. We don't really 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:28.560 have to worry about the world all that much. We've 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:32.080 got lots of problems here at at home to tackle, 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:34.840 so I think a lot. And then I think, probably 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:39.880 more recently, Iraq and Afghanistan created the sense that getting 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:43.240 involved in the world was a bad thing. It costs lives, 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:47.200 it costs money. So again it pushed people more to 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.800 think about problems. In the United States, you didn't have 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:54.280 political leaders who were explaining why what goes on in 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:58.840 the world matters. That's somewhat nuanced conversation. So for any 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:02.280 number of reasons, Americans just turned away from it, and 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.280 I think mostly in part because they weren't studying it, 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.520 didn't see the didn't see the connections. No one was 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:12.559 pointing out why this is useful, to know why this 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:16.720 is relevant, and people thought they could get along fine 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:19.880 without it. And one of the expensive lessons of what 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:22.640 we're all going through now in the pandemic is that 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:26.000 we're learning that the world does matter, it does affect 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:30.600 our lives. Indeed, fundamentally our life. Denial is not a policy. 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.400 I think the same thing applies to to climate change, 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:37.320 but it is an indictment that our education in many 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:42.360 cases is not preparing Americans collectively or individually for the 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:46.240 for the world that they're going to inherit. When we 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.560 come back more with Richard Hass, President of the Council 0:09:49.600 --> 0:10:05.560 Inform Relations. We're back with Richard Hass, President of the 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:12.400 Council on Foreign Relations. It's sort of surprising that, as 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:17.360 Tom Friedman wrote about the world becoming flat, that globalization 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:21.760 was accompanied by a certain sense of detachment from what 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:26.319 was happening in you know, outside our borders. You're right, 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:30.800 it's it's it's a contradiction. Also, I think against globalization 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:33.400 there was a certain pushback again. Foreign policy we've seen 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:38.480 as sometimes wasteful or expensive. People didn't always like what 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:42.400 they saw. They thought they could get along with with 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.880 without it, And we've been living in a certain bubble. 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:49.719 And we learned on nine eleven that terrorists who were 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.800 trained in Afghanistan could cause the death of three thousand Americans, 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:58.280 And in a couple of hours, we're learning now about 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:01.360 what began in Wuhan didn't day in Wuhan, It traveled 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.840 around the world, and now more than eighty thousand or 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:07.760 so Americans have lost their lives, Trillions of dollars of 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:11.160 wealth have been eliminated, tens and millions of jobs have 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:15.640 been eliminated. We saw the fires last summer in California. 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:18.480 We saw them in Australia, and I think that's just 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:22.520 a glimmer of what's to come. So I think what 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:26.360 we're learning is that the world really does matter, that 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.600 we ignore it to our peril. Isolationism is not a 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.959 solution to anything. What I'm hoping people also learn from 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:36.480 the current crisis is that unilateralism isn't much of a 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.720 response either. We can't do it by ourselves. It can't 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:43.120 just be America first. We've got to pool our resources 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:45.880 and and work with others. So this is this is 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:49.400 the most expensive teaching lesson I can imagine, and I 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:51.760 want to wish that on this country or any individual, 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.280 no matter what. But since it is happening, I'm hoping 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:57.679 that we can at least come away with this somewhat 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:01.960 somewhat the wiser. Well, let's talk about the US response 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.320 to this global pandemic. I know you believe it won't 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:08.680 so much change the basic direction of world history, but 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:13.760 will accelerate it. So I think, what what this pandemic 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.680 has done, Richard? In so many ways, it's brought into 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:20.880 sharp relief pre existing conditions, if you will, not only 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:26.920 domestically about income, inequality, access to healthcare, but globally about 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:31.000 the you know, the road we were already down before 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:36.600 this even surface. Can you talk about that this pandemic 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:39.960 didn't come out of nowhere, that it came into a context. 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:46.240 And the context internationally was one of a deteriorating US 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:51.400 Chinese relationship. You had the Brexit and the problems facing Europe. 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.160 The Middle East was turbulent, to say the least. North 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.839 Korea was increasing its nuclear missile arsenals. Russia was in 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.840 uh Ukraine, China was repressing freedom in Hong Kong, was 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:07.360 building out in the South China Sea, and as well, 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.160 it was a failed state, hemorrhaging people, and these and 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:14.280 any number of other challenges or realities in the world. 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:17.640 And what this has done is intensified it, accelerated and 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:22.679 exacerbated it. Uh So, the US Chinese relationship is even 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:25.800 is even worse. The Middle East now faces even more problems, 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.960 and we're looking away. So North Korea has been free 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.679 to continue down its path of missile and nuclear development. 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.600 The world has done nothing to catch up to the 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:39.520 challenge of climate change. And what's even worse, Katie, is 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.240 because we've had to devote so much of our attention, 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.880 so much of our bandwidth, so much of our resources. 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:48.440 I worry about this combination of a world that's in 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.440 worse shape than it was because of the pandemic, and 0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:56.320 now we have less attention less capacity to to deal 0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:58.760 with it. That seems to me the worst of all situations. 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.040 But I'm afraid that's the one we have less capacity 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.240 to deal with. What Richard, Oh, it's everything from the 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.319 fact of you've got millions of people around the world 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.360 who are are either ill or will be. You've got 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:14.840 economies that can't produce enough wealth in order to deal 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:16.760 with the public health needs as well as to keep 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:22.320 people employed. You've got the proliferation challenges, the terrorism challenges. 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:26.400 Russia hasn't left Ukraine, China is not pulling in it's horns. 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.280 You've had all the problems you had before. The last 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.560 book was the World in Disarray, So you had all 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.680 the disarray in the world, which has gradually gotten worse. 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.520 And again, what's now I think that more problematic is 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:43.520 the problems are more advanced, like climate change. The relationship 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.800 between the two most powerful countries in the world, the 0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.840 US and China, is rubbed raw, and the United States 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:53.600 is spending trillions of dollars in order to provide relief 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.080 to American citizens and businesses, which means that we're not 0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:00.440 going to have the capacity to devote resources and time 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:04.840 and attention to these international problems. And as we are learning, uh, 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.760 bad things happen around the world, sooner or later, they 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:10.000 will find their way here. You know, I was thinking 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:14.760 about terrorism, and I was thinking, as we're all focused 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:18.920 on the pandemic, we're really not keeping our eye on 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:23.920 on what kind of mischief quote unquote could be being 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:28.440 made in some of these terror hot spots or these 0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:33.600 these terrorists hot spots. So I was just I was 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.320 thinking this morning, I mean, when's the last time we 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.360 really focused on terrorism? And the one thing we looked 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:42.680 at we didn't see Kim Jong n We thought he 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.240 might have died because he wasn't in public. But these 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.400 things have taken are even I mean, they're on the 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.480 back burner in a big way, aren't they. And what 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.720 do you see the ramifications of us not keeping eye 0:15:55.960 --> 0:16:03.280 our eye on terrorism, which certainly is not going away. No, 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.960 history doesn't have a pause button. So just because we're distracted, 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.520 just because we're focusing in where it doesn't mean anything 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:13.080 else much like everything else stops. It worries me a 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:15.280 little bit that a terrorist might look at what's going 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:18.240 on and say, wow, we've been focusing on the wrong 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:21.640 kinds of threats or weapons. Our goal shouldn't be to 0:16:21.840 --> 0:16:24.960 bring down airplanes or use car bombs, but maybe there 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.000 is something that we could use to infect a population. 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.840 And so I worry a little bit about uh so 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.600 called grand terrorism along uh those you know those lines. 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:40.800 But even without that uh, the violence hasn't stopped in Afghanistan. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:45.120 It hasn't stopped in Seria or Olibya, or or Yemen. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:49.880 So again, just because we're not watching, just because we're 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:54.560 not heavily involved, doesn't mean it's not happening. Take one example, Iran. 0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:57.720 Over the last six months or year, it's estimated that 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:02.400 Iran has reduced by a significant out how many months 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.320 they would need before they would be on the brank 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:09.080 of developing a nuclear weapon. And we're not paying close 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.800 attention to it. I expect the Israelis are. But again 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.879 it's just a reminder that here we are while we 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:18.400 tackle this new set of problems, including pandemics, the old 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:21.640 set of problems hasn't been resolved, much less going away. 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:25.400 So two very scary notions, the use of biological weapons, 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:29.600 which we've of course been somewhat concerned about for many years, 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.160 and a nuclear Iran. Although I thought Iran had been 0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:38.480 so impacted by COVID nineteen as well, Richard, Iran has 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:42.960 been badly hurt by the plummeting oil price. By their 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:47.640 in net mismanagement of the pandemic, they allowed the pilgrimage 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:52.440 to to continue. The government was discredited by their shootdown 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:55.119 of the Ukrainian civil airliner a few months ago and 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:58.399 their subsequent cover up. Just the other day there was 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:01.480 a friendly fire accident where Ronnie and Saw shot at 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:04.720 an Iranian vessel and I think killed something like twenty 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:08.840 soldiers or sailors. But at the same time, Uranians are 0:18:08.840 --> 0:18:11.920 still causing real mischief around the region and in Iraq 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:15.840 and other places, and they are continuing to press up 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.920 against the edges of the two thousand fifteen nuclear agreement. 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:22.120 So they are there. They are able, if you will, 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.360 to take the punch of the pandemic and still continue 0:18:25.400 --> 0:18:28.200 to cause other problems. Indeed, there's a school of thought 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.680 that because the regime there is facing public criticism for 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:36.320 its handling of COVID nineteen, that they're doing things in 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:38.920 order to promote a confrontation with the United States so 0:18:39.000 --> 0:18:42.160 they can wrap themselves in the flag. Change the subject 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:46.879 if you will, Yes, wag the dog varsity style. Yeah, 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:49.920 let's you have said that foreign leaders have told you 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:53.240 that they quote don't recognize America right now and that 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.800 this is not the America they thought they knew. Uh. 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:00.359 Can you can you elaborate on that a little bit cured? 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:06.480 And can you talk about what ideally the American response 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:10.280 would have been to this pandemic versus in reality what 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.600 it has been. Uh, there's two sides to the coin. 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.680 One is domestically, when they look at our politics, they 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:20.680 look at other features of American society there they shake 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:23.040 their heads. A lot of them studied here, a lot 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:27.400 of them spend time here. And so they see United 0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:31.200 States that has not just inequality, but has had several 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:35.040 decades of lagging or drifting incomes in the part of 0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:38.600 many families. They see the gun violence, which they can't 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:43.000 understand or comprehend, the opioid deaths. Now, they see the 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:46.720 inept handling of the pandemic, the lack of testing, the 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:52.720 lack of discipline, social distancing, inadequate hospital capacity. So this 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.639 is not the United States. They respect much less want 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.199 to emulate. And then they see what we're doing or 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:00.199 not doing around the world. The fact that we not 0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:04.280 participate in the European led effort to bring countries together 0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:08.159 governments together, say to develop a vaccine, so we're essentially 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:12.560 missing an action. We talk about being tough on China, 0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:15.600 but then we don't join the Trans Pacific Partnership, the 0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:19.840 Regional Economic grouping, and most of our interaction with our 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.480 allies in the region is to break them over the 0:20:22.560 --> 0:20:24.960 level of defense spending, rather than to come up with 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:28.720 a common approach, say to dealing with the challenge from 0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:32.600 from China. So I think this the pandemic reinforces a 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:35.840 lot of these these perceptions of the United of the 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:40.120 United States that can no longer be counted on abroad, 0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:44.200 were no longer as reliable and at home the United States, 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:47.680 that is not setting a standard or behavior that they 0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:50.080 had come to to expect from us. And this is 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:52.439 what this leads to as a world where we have 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:56.040 less influence, where other countries kind of go their own way. 0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:59.160 But it's not a good situation because these other countries 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:03.399 don't have the capacity to substitute for US. In some cases, 0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:06.680 they may decide to develop more military capability so they're 0:21:06.680 --> 0:21:11.000 more independent, which is not to me a reassuring future. 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.800 In some cases they may need to assuage a more 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:17.639 powerful neighbor. But a post American world will probably be 0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:22.400 less prosperous, less free, UH, and less peaceful. And that's 0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:26.960 the direction things are moving. We'll be back with more 0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:40.399 of our conversation right after this once again, Richard Hass, 0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:44.720 President of the Council and Form Relations. You've worked with 0:21:44.760 --> 0:21:51.439 both Republicans and Democratic administrations, Richard uh Is, this is 0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:55.800 this because of Donald Trump's leadership. It has something to 0:21:55.840 --> 0:21:59.399 do with that. Donald Trump is UH an outlier. If 0:21:59.440 --> 0:22:02.120 you look at it, re American president from Harry Truman 0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:05.480 to through Barack Obama, what they had in common was 0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:10.199 far greater than where they disagreed. Donald Trump is the 0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:13.800 first president who probably disagrees more than he has in 0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:18.000 common with all of his modern predecessors. He is clearly 0:22:19.119 --> 0:22:21.600 in that sense of disruptor. But one of the big 0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:25.639 questions in the field is whether it's in six months 0:22:25.720 --> 0:22:27.960 or in four years and six months. And Donald Trump 0:22:28.040 --> 0:22:31.600 is succeeded by someone else. To what extent the things 0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:34.359 go back to what extent now has the rest of 0:22:34.400 --> 0:22:38.159 the world somewhat moved on, to what extent as if 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:40.879 the American people decided they don't want to support certain 0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:42.960 kinds of policy. But to put it in another way, 0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:46.040 to what extent is Donald Trump or reflection of a 0:22:46.160 --> 0:22:48.879 changed America in a changed world as much as he 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:50.960 is a driver of it, and that there's a there's 0:22:50.960 --> 0:22:54.480 a big debate about that about what things look like afterwards. 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.600 I don't think there's any going back to where where 0:22:56.840 --> 0:23:00.040 where things were exactly, but I do think they're a 0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:04.200 potential for more of a return to a familiar traditional 0:23:04.720 --> 0:23:07.120 American role in the world. I do think that's possible, 0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:11.440 although you have posited that even a Biden presidency would 0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:15.240 likely not guarantee a full scale return of an expansive 0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:19.680 US role in the world. That's correct. I've written that, 0:23:19.840 --> 0:23:22.520 and I still think that, and it's because the American 0:23:22.560 --> 0:23:26.000 people aren't there. I think the pandemic we'll also reinforce 0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:29.080 that because our domestic needs are going to be enormous, 0:23:29.560 --> 0:23:31.720 the rest of the world might not be as prepared 0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:36.040 to accept America's leadership in the future, and with the 0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:38.680 thought that GF had happened once, it could happen again. 0:23:38.760 --> 0:23:41.680 We can't be quite as reliant on the United States. 0:23:42.160 --> 0:23:45.040 China has become more powerful, Russia is more entrenched in 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:48.880 the Middle East and in Ukraine. North Korea has much 0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:52.320 farther advanced in terms of its nuclear and missile development. 0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:55.120 What I do know is whoever is the next president 0:23:55.320 --> 0:23:58.040 in early twenty one, whether it's Donald Trump for second 0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:00.800 term or Joe Biden for his first, it's going to 0:24:00.840 --> 0:24:06.479 be an extraordinarily difficult, even daunting uh inbox challenges. And 0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:10.160 that's where again COVID nineteen, the pandemic has made it worse. 0:24:10.240 --> 0:24:14.040 The challenges are somewhat greater about traditional ones as as 0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:17.440 well as global ones, including the pandemic. Would also say 0:24:17.480 --> 0:24:21.280 climate change, and our capacity and focus is going to 0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:24.399 be less so. Even even if a president came in 0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:27.000 like a Joe Biden who was inclined to do certain things, 0:24:27.400 --> 0:24:31.200 he's just going to be dealt a very difficult, very 0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:34.200