1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: read a lot? They're a running a game so smooth, 3 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sixteing, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:22,159 Speaker 1: looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of 5 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: the time. How shut with that shot? With fine god, buddy, 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: And that's why you see your beautiful Tias. Look at 7 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: his movements, the. 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: Most dangerous a mount on the planet. 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up. I'm trying again, be wove. 10 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: It's left to one of the white eyed drill bibus. 11 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: How old earth did that happens? 12 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: Helloi one and welcome back to Wondergo, the soccer betting 13 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff 14 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: and joining me for this our Champions League match Week 15 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: three betting preview is BJ Cunningham and BJ. We have 16 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: a clear headliner here, Real Madrid and BRUSHA Dortmund the 17 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: rematch between these two teams, and what did you know? 18 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: It's uh, it's Dortmund at the top of the table 19 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: right now, and I feel like we just do the 20 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:28,839 Speaker 2: Saga dance with this team every year. 21 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 1: At the Champions League. 22 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 2: Right now it's we know that there there's like a 23 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 2: little bit of the dark arts and some voodoo to it. 24 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 2: We doubt them and now here they are very early days, 25 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: but they're sitting at the top of the table on 26 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 2: goal difference. They're one of I believe seven two and 27 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 2: oh teams, but they've got the best goal difference ahead 28 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: of breast Benfica, Bayer Leverkusen, Liverpool, Villa and Juventus. Those 29 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 2: are the other six unbeatens. But they are pretty big 30 00:01:56,120 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 2: underdog here at the Santiago Bernabau. And you think Real 31 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: Madrid could make this one pretty one side. 32 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, this, I mean, this is like you said, this 33 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: is obviously a rematch of the Champions League final last year, 34 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:09,399 Speaker 1: where if you look at the final XG Dortmund did 35 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: actually outcreate Real Madrid. If you remember, they kind of 36 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 1: dominated them for the first half and then Real Madrid 37 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: started to kind of figure things out as the game 38 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: went along, which is kind of what Real Madrid does 39 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: at this point. In Rancelotti, they're a very versatile tackle 40 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: team in the fact that they just kind of mirror 41 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: what their opponent does and try to exploit their weaknesses. 42 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,080 Speaker 1: Dorman this season, I think is far worse than that 43 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: team that went to the Champions League final. I think 44 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,639 Speaker 1: they're much worse coach than a Nuri Sahin. I think 45 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: he's trying to implement a new type of system with 46 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: many different build up structures, and so far it's not 47 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 1: really going well because they keep getting exploited in transition. 48 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: If you look at their numbers in the Bundesliga right now, 49 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: they're allowing one point four to seven expected goals for 50 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: ninety minutes. They have not played Bayern Munich, RBI, Leipzig 51 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: or Leverkusen. The best team they've played is stut Cart, 52 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: who put five goals past them. And yes they can 53 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: have the best overall gold differential in the Champions League 54 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: because they played Club Bruges and Celtic. But even in 55 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: those two matches, you know, even though one against Celtic, 56 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: like they they scored a lot of low quality chances 57 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: against that Celtic defense. And the biggest thing here for 58 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: me is you have basically a full strength Real Madrid 59 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,680 Speaker 1: squad and that Dormin squad. The reason they had so 60 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: much success is because they were able to play pretty 61 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: direct and Real Madrid tried to press them, which is 62 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: not typical of Real Madrid. If Real Madrid just decides 63 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: to sit back, play a mid block and just forced 64 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: Dortmann to play a lot of short passes through and 65 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: with Jorden playing a high line as well, Like that's 66 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: a death sentence when you played Venetians Junior and Rodrigo 67 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: and killing Nimbape. So for me, I like Real Madrid 68 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: minus one and a half at plus one fifteen here. 69 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: Their numbers haven't been that great in La Lega so far. 70 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: This is interesting, Michael, because we'll talk about Barcelona later 71 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: in this show. But Elklastico is this weekend, So two 72 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: huge matches for Real Madrid coming up here, especially with 73 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: that loss to lil as well. You know, they kind 74 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: of humbled them a little bit, so now they kind 75 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: of got to get things kicked back into gear here 76 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: if they want to finish in the top eight. So 77 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: very very important match for them, and given how bad 78 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: Dorman really has been defensively in the one Matt, I mean, 79 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: they've played one decent team in Stuttgart. They gave them 80 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: five goals to them, and Real Madrid, I know they 81 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: got dominated for like thirty minutes against stut Gart, but 82 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: in the end they ended up creating you know, two 83 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: point six against two point six expected goals, so commonality 84 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 1: an opponent. I mean, it's all Real Madrid here, So 85 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 1: I like the minus one to have plus plus one fifteen. 86 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: I think that you know this line closed and minus 87 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 1: one fifty on a neutral field. I think if you 88 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 1: account for Dortmund being way worse in Real Madrid being 89 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 1: better now that they have Killian and Bape, I like 90 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: Real Madrid and minus one and a half here. 91 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think i'd lead that way, or you know, 92 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 2: you can play the Real Madrid team totals as well. 93 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 2: It does seem like this could end up being a 94 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: one way traffic, but we know how the song and 95 00:04:55,760 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: dance goes. Dortmund just finds a way, it seems, especially 96 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 2: in these stages of the Champions League. It's just who 97 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: they are. 98 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:10,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's tradition, dark arts for stark here, right. 99 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, as I say, it's just I was just about 100 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 2: to stop myself and say, actually, if you think about it, 101 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 2: it's it's we're in the group. Since we're technically in 102 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 2: like the group league phase, that you'd give the dark 103 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 2: arts advantage to dortmunt Here. But if this was a 104 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: knockout round match, you'd give the dark arts advantage to 105 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: UH to Real Madrid. Speaking of dark arts, let's talk 106 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: about Juventus up next. They're hosting stute Gart Uve. They've 107 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 2: given up a goal since we last talked, but they 108 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 2: still have the most bizarre there's there's two teams in 109 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,840 Speaker 2: the Champions League from Syria A which is absolutely bizarre 110 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: domestic league for him, and Uve is one of them. 111 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 2: They are unbeaten, four wins, four draws, although three of 112 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 2: the four draws are nil nails. They did give up 113 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 2: a goal uh two weeks ago to Cagliari in a 114 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 2: in a dominate one one draw for you, Vet. Now 115 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 2: they take on stute Gart team that I think, uh I, 116 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: I don't think they'll have too much trouble like swatting aside. 117 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 2: I think this is actually a decent win to nail 118 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 2: bet something like that, but the money line is cheap 119 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 2: enough I think to back this Uve side, which we're 120 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 2: falling more and more in love with with every I 121 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,599 Speaker 2: feel like passing match. So yeah, you've for me? What 122 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 2: about you? 123 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: Yeah? I agree. You know what's funny enough, Michael, is 124 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 1: that that one goal they conceded was a penalty, so 125 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: they haven't even conceded a non penalty goal yet, right, 126 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 1: which is which is crazy think about. You know, they 127 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 1: did concede twice to Leipsig in their last Champions League match, 128 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 1: but that was off a chesch go banger and they 129 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: gave up a penalty and then of course, you know 130 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: you'll see on the final XTGA they gave up a 131 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: ton but they were also playing down a man for 132 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: most of it. But yeah, my I spe twenty is cheap. Here. 133 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 1: Stutgart's defense when they have to face good competition just 134 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: continually gets worse and worse. They got hammered four nail 135 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,119 Speaker 1: against Bayern over the weekend, gave up three expected goals 136 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: to them, and even if you go back to their 137 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: other matches against elite opponent they obviously played Real Madrid 138 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: in their opening match give up two point six expected 139 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: goals to them as well. And the stylistic match up 140 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: here is okay. Stutgart is a team that likes to 141 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,559 Speaker 1: press high. They really like to get in your face, 142 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: go man to man and cause a lot of problems. 143 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: But you know, for youve their build up has been 144 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: a lot different and they're trying to utilize a lot 145 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: of more short passes, but I think you'll see them 146 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: play a little more direct here against Stutgart. Defensively, I 147 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: mean yeah, I mean they're still playing a leg Rey ball. 148 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: They're still playing incredibly compact. The one thing I'll say 149 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: about Juventus going forward, and I think this is why 150 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 1: maybe you're seeing this price as cheap as it is, 151 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: is they lost their best defender Bremer to a torn 152 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: acl so he's out for the season. So we're gonna 153 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: see over the next couple matches how they kind of 154 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: are without him, because he's somebody who likes to invert 155 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 1: into the middle of the pitch when they're in possession. 156 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: You know, if they beat lots of one nothing, they 157 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: were up the you know lots. He got a red 158 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: card in the twenty fourth minutes. There's not only much 159 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: you can take from that. But you know, the defensive 160 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: metrics for Stutgart are really really bad, especially when they 161 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 1: play good teams. So with Juventus being here at home, 162 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: I mean minus one twenty is cheap, so I like 163 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: them at minus one twenty as well. Projected them minus 164 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: one fifty five. 165 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 2: Yep, the uve A train again on board. It's quite 166 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,679 Speaker 2: a lot of fun to just watch this team posts zeros. 167 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 2: It's it's like having a Drake Maddox on the mound 168 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 2: or something. The other the other bizarre. Uh, Syria a 169 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 2: team in the Champions League. It is the next one 170 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: we'll talk about. This match is taking place at Villa Park. 171 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,559 Speaker 2: Aston Villa is minus one sixty five hosting Bologna plus 172 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:49,599 Speaker 2: four fifty on the three way line for the Italians. 173 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 2: The draw here is plus three ten. Bologna is unbeaten. 174 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 2: In their last five six six matches in Syria. AH, 175 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:08,599 Speaker 2: five of them have been draws. H only one was 176 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: a nil nail. Everything else was a score draw. They 177 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 2: are one six and one wind draw loss on the season. 178 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 2: Uh it Syria. Uh, that is just so great. Nine 179 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 2: goals scored, eleven conceded in eight matches. The expected goals 180 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 2: is right there too, Like it's it's almost very fair 181 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: that this team is has this crazy record. But I 182 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 2: do think that makes them an interesting underdog. I want 183 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: to say they're my favorite underdog on the slate, but 184 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: I will be betting them here on the road. I 185 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 2: think that this just showing up and trying to just 186 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 2: play aston Villa to a grind is something that could 187 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 2: work here. They were okay, I thought against Liverpool in 188 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 2: a two nil defeat the nil then they had a 189 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 2: nil nil against Shaktar in their ow opener. I just 190 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 2: think this is just going to be an absolute slug 191 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: festuslog and that's not how Villain wants to play. And 192 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 2: I think stylistically that it leads to a very low 193 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 2: event rock fighty kind of game. And when you're dealing 194 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 2: with an underdog at a price like this, even on 195 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 2: the road in the Champions League where it's hard to 196 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 2: get business done, plus four to fifty I think is 197 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 2: a pretty appealing price on the Italian side here. 198 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree in a sense. I think aston Villa 199 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: is a little overvalued here, but I like under two 200 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 1: and a half of plus one ten. I mean, this 201 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: is just Vincenzo Italiana ball, Michael. It's just you know, 202 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: he did this at Orantina for the last couple of seasons, 203 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: where it's just low. They're so good at getting the 204 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: ball through the first couple phases of build up and 205 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: then just settling for like low quality chances. So far 206 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: this season point zero eight non penalty x cheaper shot. 207 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: It's fourth lowest in Syria last season. As if Rantia 208 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: team had the lowest x cheaper shot. But defensively they're 209 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: charting to kind of change a little bit, like Blowny 210 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: has the best pass per defensive action in Syria A, 211 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 1: which is weird because last season they were playing under Manta, 212 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: they were very like defensive structure, let's just sit in 213 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:08,120 Speaker 1: and you've seen that a little bit when they've played 214 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: some of these better teams, like they've been trying to 215 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: press like worse off teams and they've been doing a 216 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: decent job at it. But you know, in this type 217 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 1: of match, man, I don't see how they don't just 218 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 1: on the road, especially like you said, just kind of 219 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,559 Speaker 1: sit in and try to try to muck this one up. 220 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: They're not really a good team playing in transition. But 221 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: on the other end of it, like aston Villa, you know, 222 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 1: they got the benefit of playing up a man against 223 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: Fulham for most of that match. The three previous matches 224 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 1: before that against Ipswich, Byron and Manchester United, they didn't 225 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 1: create over one expected goal in any of those matches, 226 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 1: and even the match against Byron. Like they they were, 227 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: they basically had to rely on just a couple of 228 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: transition attacks and really couldn't do anything because Byron just 229 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: smothered them with their press. So you could see a 230 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: scenario where Bolognia just comes on the road here mandon 231 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,079 Speaker 1: man marks them and just causes all sorts of problems. 232 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: But I'm not sure Bolognia really has the offensive threat 233 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: to to really threaten aston Ville. So I like under 234 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: two and ff goals and plus one ten. 235 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're both kind of walking down Saint 236 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 2: Path and going into just different destinations with our bets. 237 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 2: A game that I don't think will play out very 238 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 2: similarly is Adelanta and Celtic, because Atlanta is like the 239 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 2: complete opposite, right they They've had what forty no excuse 240 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 2: me that forty thirty one goals in their eight matches 241 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 2: in Syria, A which is quite a bit in any league, 242 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 2: and certainly in Syria. The expected goals is suggesting that 243 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 2: it's like a shade high, but not all that high. 244 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 2: If you look at their combined XG four and extra 245 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 2: against it, it's like right at between like twenty nine and. 246 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 1: Thirty, so not too far off here. 247 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 2: They are a big favorite in Bergamo at home minus 248 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:52,599 Speaker 2: two thirty against Celtic plus five point fifty on the 249 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 2: Scottish side who are coming off a draw in Scottish 250 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 2: Premier League over the weekend. The draw here is plus 251 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:02,359 Speaker 2: four hundred. I kind of want to go against Adelanta, 252 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: but you can't let me keep betting Celtic. 253 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 1: That's just a rule, so I'll pass. I kind of 254 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: want to keep betting them, but it said I, you know, 255 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: I was actually looking at taking maybe, so I don't 256 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 1: know if I could. You know, the thing with Celtic 257 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: when they play some of these good teams, because they're 258 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: going to play Leipsig next as well, is if they're 259 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: going to play some of these better teams, you might 260 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 1: as well just take them on the money line because 261 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't look like they're gonna be covering any type 262 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: of spread one and a half two or anything like that. 263 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: I will say this, Michael. Against Dortmun they did create 264 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: two point two expected goals in a seven to one defeat, 265 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: and I think that they what they learned from that 266 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: and they're starting to, you know, find this is like 267 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: being able to play direct and being able to exploit teams. 268 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: And they have a lot of great Japanese strikers like 269 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: Hurashi and Maida who can really cause a team like 270 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: Adelanta a lot of problems. You know, Adelanta is a 271 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: team that is going to man mark you, They're going 272 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 1: to come at you, and they're going to put a 273 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 1: lot of pressure on you. But when you go one 274 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: v one, what happens is when teams are able to 275 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: play direct and more over the top and you have 276 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: good enough attackers to beat those opposing center backs in 277 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 1: one v one situations, that's where you see them kind 278 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: of getting kind of getting exploited. They are conceding one 279 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: point three expected goals per ninety and Syria a where 280 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: nobody really presses anymore and nobody's really, honestly that great 281 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: offensively other than a couple teams at the top end 282 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: of the table. So you know, we've they've been good. 283 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: They had a good performance obviously against Arsenal to open 284 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: things up, and then they dominated Shoktar, who you know 285 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: might be one of the worst teams in this competition. 286 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: But I like both team to score at minus one 287 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: forty five. I think with these Celtic matches, especially facing 288 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: a team like Atlanta that's going to make the match 289 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: very chaotic, I think anything both team to score under 290 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 1: minus one fifty is good enough. Here, So I think 291 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: the way to play Celtic is maybe just like you know, 292 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: play them to score, or these both teams to score, 293 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: or money lines because I don't know how many sprints 294 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: they're really good be covering if they continue to continue 295 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: to try to build out of the back and don't 296 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: play super direct, So both team to score minus one 297 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: forty five. 298 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 2: For me, it was a little tongue in cheek when 299 00:15:09,840 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 2: I said that Dortmund and Real Madrid was the headliner. 300 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: I think most people would agree that the headliner comes 301 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 2: Wednesday afternoon, three pm Eastern time, when Barcelona hosts Iron 302 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: Munich at the Camp New Barsa plus one thirty five 303 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 2: Byron traveling plus one seventy. The draw here is plus 304 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 2: two to ninety five. That's the direction I'm leaning. It's 305 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 2: not something that like I particularly feel great about one 306 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 2: way or another. I do just think that these two 307 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 2: teams they kind of end up canceling each other out 308 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 2: Barsia at home. They've been like astoundingly good through the 309 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 2: first ten matches in the in Syria obviouly mean in 310 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 2: La Liga, but with one little blip was that late 311 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 2: September against Osasuna. But other than that, like they've been 312 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 2: stomping teams, but I just think that they haven't like 313 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 2: Bill out, I guess Bill bois side. I feel like 314 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 2: they haven't truly been tested yet. I don't like look 315 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 2: too far into Girona, I mean, and I think that 316 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 2: their league form has kind of bared that out. BeVier 317 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 2: Real has been pretty good, but I just think they're 318 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 2: so much better than any of the opponents they played 319 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 2: that this is clearly the toughest test for them. They've 320 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 2: been really really good going forward, really good going forward 321 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 2: Byron Obviously, it's been really really good defensively in the Bundesliga. 322 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 2: They've conceded seven goals in seven games. But the expectacles 323 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 2: is that hovering around five. I think this thing could 324 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 2: just be an absolute stalemate. Like we talked about a lot, 325 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 2: when City and Arsenal take on one another, that just 326 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: the it just becomes such an efficient game almost that 327 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 2: it just gets I'll bogged down in the details, and 328 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 2: I think that that has there's a serious potential that 329 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 2: that's what happens here. So the draw it at like 330 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 2: nearly three to one is really appealing to me. 331 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kind of in the same boat. I do 332 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: like Byron in this match quite a bit. But and 333 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: I think this kind of along the same lines as 334 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: you're thinking, is I think this match should be projected 335 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:24,360 Speaker 1: closer to a pickham than Barcelona being a favorite. Barcelona 336 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: in what is supposed to be the lowest scoring league 337 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: and among Europe's top five league is average our averaging 338 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 1: two and a half expected goals for ninety minutes. It's crazy, 339 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 1: like they're just putting up crazy offensive numbers. But you 340 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 1: mentioned it. The best team they've played has been bill 341 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 1: Bau and that was the second game of the season, 342 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,119 Speaker 1: and if you look at the XG, that match was 343 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: actually kind of close. And what worries me here for Barcelona, Well, 344 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: let's just put it this way. There's obviously a lot 345 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: of familiarity with hanse Flick in Bayern Munich and that 346 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: whole storyline coming into this. But hanse Flick left Byron 347 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one, so it's been three years, so 348 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: it's not like he just recently coached all of these players. 349 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: It's kind of a little bit of a different team, 350 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: Like he didn't manage Harry Kane Musiala wasn't the player 351 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 1: that he is right now, and the way that both 352 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: these teams want to play is just controlling the middle. 353 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,879 Speaker 1: So that stalemate that you're talking about, it could just 354 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,880 Speaker 1: be every Both teams are trying to get like a 355 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: six v five or a five v four overload in 356 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: the middle, and just because the space is so compact, 357 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: they're just not gonna be able to play through there 358 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 1: or really do anything. So I think this really comes 359 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 1: down to is who is more effective in the wide areas. 360 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: And if you know how Barcelona plays, they want to 361 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: get at least like eight guys in the middle, so 362 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: when they lose the ball, they're so vulnerable in those 363 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 1: wide areas. And Byron has so many good wingers who 364 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: can just kill you in one v one situations and 365 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 1: get the ball to Harry Kane, you know. And the 366 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: thing of what still rains in my mind about Bayern 367 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: Muich is they have been tested, like they have played 368 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: a lot of good teams, like they have played Leverkusen, 369 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:01,239 Speaker 1: they have played aston Villa, like they've gone against some 370 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 1: of the elite teams, and they have kind of dominated them. 371 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 2: You know. 372 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: I know, aston Villa beat them one nothing, but Byron 373 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 1: was completely neutralizing any type of chance of them building 374 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 1: out of the back. Same thing with Leverkusen. Like Leverkusen 375 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 1: took two shots and point zero seven expected goals for 376 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: the match, like they scored a one from outside the box, 377 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 1: and then Byron just completely neutralized them and made them 378 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: play very direct. So I know that Hansei Flick traditionally 379 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 1: does want his teams to maybe play a little bit 380 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 1: more direct, and I think that's Barcelona's best avenue. But 381 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 1: the better defensive team, by far is Byron, because Barcelona's 382 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,919 Speaker 1: without roy Jo, They're without your stagan like, so I 383 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,439 Speaker 1: like Byron here, I like them Jonobad at plus one twenty. 384 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: Like you said, Barcelona just has not been tested and 385 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: we're gonna find out a lot about them in this 386 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 1: match and then in an olt Classico against Real Madrid. 387 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point, right, And it's also, as 388 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 2: you said in the earlier segment, classical on the horizon, 389 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:02,919 Speaker 2: So keep that in mind too. Okay. That brings us 390 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:07,360 Speaker 2: to Diego Simioni's charges at Lettico Madrid. They're taking on Lil. 391 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: This one is at the Wanda Metropolitano in Spain, at 392 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 2: Letty sending minus two ten at the time recording Lil 393 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 2: traveling plus five fifty. The draw here is plus three forty. 394 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 2: Pretty big game, I would say for uh Simoni's men 395 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 2: because of the start one and one or one oh 396 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 2: one win draw loss, I think they have to have 397 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 2: this one circle. Do you got to take care of 398 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 2: business at home in this kind of format, especially against 399 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 2: teams when you're a big favorite. That said, I just 400 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 2: don't think either price is all that appealing. There are 401 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 2: a couple underdogs that I like more than Lil, so 402 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 2: I'm going to pass here. I do think at Letty 403 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 2: ends up taking care of business at home though. 404 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's an interesting Matt because obviously have Lil 405 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: who just came off beating Real Madrid, their rivals. But 406 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: little team just they're just not as good as as 407 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: previous little teams. They've lost a lot of players, the 408 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: new manager really hasn't put up great underlying metrics. And 409 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: the interesting part about Athletico is their offensive numbers have 410 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 1: been way down considering what they were last season. They're 411 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 1: averaging one point three to eight expect goals per ninety 412 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 1: when last season they were at one point six. So yeah, 413 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,199 Speaker 1: it's just a situation where I'm sitting here and being like, 414 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 1: do I really want to lay you know, minus one 415 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: minus one and a half with Athletico coming off of 416 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: you know, they are a little bit more arrested, Like 417 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 1: that spot against Benefica was a horrible spot for them 418 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: because they had played so many matches and it was 419 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 1: like the tail end of all these like strings of 420 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: matches together. So a little bit better a spot for them, 421 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:47,919 Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm not so confident laying this big of 422 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: a price on Athletico and LIL. Their other performance away 423 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,400 Speaker 1: from home in the Champions League so far was horrible 424 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: against Sporting. They got completely dominated by Monico over the 425 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 1: weekend up until a red cart about the fiftieth minute, 426 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: and still even after that Monaco continue to dominate them. 427 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: So yeah, I do project a little bit of value 428 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: on LIL, but I'm not confident at all and taking them, 429 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 1: so I'm passing. 430 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: Okay, that brings us to Leipzig and Liverpool up Nexus 431 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 2: one in Leipzig, where Die Rotten Bowlin are sitting as 432 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 2: a plus two eighty underdog in front of their fans, 433 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 2: Liverpool traveling at minus one twenty. That draw is plus 434 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 2: three to ten Liverpool aided by a couple of penalties 435 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 2: in a really compelling match against Chelsea that was a 436 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 2: big one for them over the weekend. Now they travel 437 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 2: to Leipzig and I talked about at Letty being in 438 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 2: a really big spot to get on the board or 439 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 2: to get another win. This Leipzig team really is desperate, 440 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,640 Speaker 2: and I know they're an underdog and they're playing Liverpool, 441 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 2: so you can't and it's still early in the league phase, 442 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,640 Speaker 2: you can argue, but now oh oh two, three goals 443 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 2: four or five against and I lost year like they 444 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 2: could find themselves in pretty desperate situation in terms of 445 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 2: the league phase. So I expect them to go for it, 446 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 2: and I expect that to play right into Liverpool's hands. 447 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 2: So I would actually lean towards Liverpool here as a 448 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 2: road favorite considering the stylistic matchup. Minus one twenty is 449 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: a little steep, I guess for a road team coming 450 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 2: off of a big win in the Premier League. 451 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: But I don't know. I can't. 452 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 2: I just would much rather be sitting with that price 453 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 2: and the Leipzig price considering how I expect this match 454 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 2: to play out. 455 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Liverpool unders have been cashing at a 456 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:52,160 Speaker 1: crazy rate, Michael, every single Liverpool match in the Premier 457 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: League has gone under the opening total. I think there's 458 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 1: been one match where the total closed at I think 459 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: it was like a three or two and a half 460 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: half where it either went either went over or pushed. 461 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 1: But from the opening total, every single one has gone under. 462 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 1: And I think that's going to continue here against Leipzig, 463 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 1: because you know Leipzig can get Honestly is they're interesting 464 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 1: this season because they're drastically overperforming their underlying metrics in 465 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: the Bundesliga. I mean, so far they have they have 466 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 1: only allowed two goals off of seven point eight expected Like, 467 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: they have gotten very very fortunate defensively throughout all of 468 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 1: their their Bundesliga matches, and if you watch them through 469 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 1: you know, especially when they played Athletico they got an 470 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: early goal and then they kind of just sat in 471 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 1: and they didn't even create over one expected goal for 472 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: the match. Then even against Juventus again Cessco hit a banger, 473 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 1: they got a penalty and they created a bunch of 474 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: chances after you know, Juventus sat in with ten men. 475 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 1: But in the biggest matches that they've had this season, 476 00:24:55,760 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: you know, again against Athletico point seven expected goals against Leverkusen, 477 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: they scored three goals off about one expected. I don't 478 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: see how they're gonna do that against this Liverpool defense. 479 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: Like once again Liverpool allows under one expected goal against Chelsea, 480 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,959 Speaker 1: Like if you take away that pen, I mean, if 481 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: you take we've had Liverpool Chelsea match even with the penalty, 482 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: had only three expected goals created in it. So under 483 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: three at plus one oh five I think is a 484 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 1: little bit cheap because I mean, we've talked about Liverpool 485 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: so many times, but they have control under Arnie Slot Like, 486 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: it's it's not the Yergen Klop Liverpool. They're not just 487 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: going for it. Funny enough though, Michael is that this 488 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: is Liverpool's I don't know if you saw this, but 489 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,440 Speaker 1: Klop has a new job and he's the global director 490 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: of They did of Red Bull, of Red Bull red Bull. 491 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: Funny enough, their first Champions League matches against Liverpool, right, 492 00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 1: But so that's that. He'll obviously be in the stands. 493 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 1: I would love to get the over under on camera 494 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,360 Speaker 1: shots on him. That would be a f on bet 495 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: to make, probably twenty and a half, I would say 496 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: somewhere around there. That'd probably be a good. 497 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 2: Line, Like yeah, Taylor Swift and the Chiefs player exactly. 498 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 2: That's exactly that kind of territory. 499 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I projected closer to three here, but I'm 500 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 1: just gonna keep playing these Liverpool Wanders until they start, 501 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 1: you know, consistently having matches that go over three expected goals. 502 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,360 Speaker 1: So under three eight plus one oh five for me, cool, 503 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:27,199 Speaker 1: very quickly. 504 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,200 Speaker 2: Man City are minus eighteen hundred favorites to get Sparta 505 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 2: pra Ha thirty to one for them, fourteen to one 506 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,000 Speaker 2: on the draw. You have some thoughts here, though. 507 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: I do. I think Sparta Prog is interesting plus two 508 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 1: and a half. But these money lines are crazy, Michael. 509 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,360 Speaker 1: This should be forty to one. This is stupid. There's 510 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: no reason, there's no reason Sparta Prag should be twenty 511 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 1: eight to one against against City. Please give us forty 512 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: five to one. Like I think it's because of what 513 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: Sparta Prog is shown in their first two Champions League matches, 514 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: Like they hammered Salsburg at home and then they played 515 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: a really really good match against Stuttgart on the road, 516 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,400 Speaker 1: and you know, typically, you know, you look back historically 517 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 1: this team, they're in the Europa League. They played Liverpool 518 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: and they just got absolutely hammered, but they did score 519 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: in both of those matches. So Sparta Prog is plus 520 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 1: one seventy five to score in this game, which I 521 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: think is a pretty decent price. Again, this is a 522 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: team that's been dominating the Czech League for a long time, 523 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: they have European pedigree, and given the way they've played 524 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 1: in their first two matches, you know, City without rodri 525 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 1: as you've seen, is pretty vulnerable. We had you know, 526 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 1: I know Wolfson too much against them, but Fulham the 527 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 1: previous match at City created two point six expected goals, 528 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: consistently got in numerical advantages in transition. I wouldn't be 529 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: surprised if Sparta Prague gets a couple of those. You know, 530 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: I think City's just way more vulnerable and just has 531 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: a lot less control if they don't have Rodery there. 532 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:56,439 Speaker 1: So I'll probably be on Sparta Prog to score at 533 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: plus one seventy five two and a half. You know, 534 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 1: is that like plus one ten. I wanted a three. 535 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna get there to get a 536 00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 1: plus three, So instead, I think Sparta problem to score 537 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 1: plus one seventy five is it's a lot of fun. 538 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 2: Okay, and City did give up a goal to Wolves. So, 539 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 2: I mean they keep conceding and with have they have 540 00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 2: they kept a clean sheet without Rodri. 541 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:23,880 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't believe they have. 542 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, so just keep that in mind. Okay, real quick, 543 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 2: you want to rifle through some other bets before we 544 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 2: get to our underdog parlay. Antony did submit one, so 545 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,879 Speaker 2: we have a three legger. It comes at like one 546 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 2: hundred and sixty six to one, and then we'll get 547 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 2: to our favorite bets after after that, what else? What 548 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 2: else do you have on your card? 549 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, Sturm Graz plus one and a half a home 550 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: against Sporting. The market loves Sporting. Two straight instances, Michael, 551 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 1: where we've had Sporting against lil went from like minus 552 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 1: one thirty to like minus two hundred, and then in 553 00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: their previous match against PSV, which was a pain, they 554 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 1: closed it like minus one ten like they were for 555 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 1: whatever reason, the market just continues to love them. And listen, 556 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,719 Speaker 1: they were very good in both those performances, and they 557 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: have a lot of good players and al Moron is 558 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: a very very good manager. But one and a half 559 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 1: on the road in the Champions League against the Sturm 560 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 1: Grass team that had actually actually Hammered Salzburg and the 561 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 1: Austrian buddhestlegue, and it has been a consistent and a 562 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 1: good team in the Europa League last season. Like I 563 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 1: think it's really really high. I only had Sporting it 564 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: like minus one thirty minus one forty here, so I 565 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: think you're getting inflated value on them inter minus one 566 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: and a half against young boys. I'll save that for 567 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 1: the best bets segment. And I gotta talk one Europa 568 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 1: League match, Michael. I have to, and we typically don't 569 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 1: do that until we get to the knockout stage. But 570 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: Josie Marino Spenerbasche is hosting Manchester United and Eric Tenhaggs 571 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 1: job is not really on the line anymore after they 572 00:29:55,000 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 1: beat Brentford. But a very very poetic situation in Turkey, 573 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 1: and I love fenerbahe John bad at plus one oh three. 574 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: They haven't been that good in their first two Europa 575 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 1: League matches. But it's not only a Mourinho revenge spot, 576 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 1: it's a Fred It's a Soulfian Omrabot revenge spot. So 577 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 1: I love especially. I mean Listen United was not good 578 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 1: against Brentford. They haven't been good all season long. They 579 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 1: were horrible, like they're going up to nothing against Porto 580 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 1: on the road and then just continually got exposed in transition. Well, 581 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 1: how do you think Marinho teams play? Right? Like it's 582 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 1: low block transition all day, all all day and all night. 583 00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: So uh, that'll be the one Europa League slam spot 584 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 1: Mourinho am rabot fred revenge game for Fenerbahe. 585 00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,760 Speaker 2: Okay, well we'll be right there with you rooting on 586 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 2: a special one. Okay, underdog partlay time, Like I said, 587 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 2: Anthony did submit one. He likes uh wow, surprisingly this 588 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 2: a team he never bets on. A fire Nord, a 589 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 2: big underdog. We the Nord. 590 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 1: I feel like he. 591 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 2: Hasn't bet them yet. But they are taking on Benfica, 592 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,680 Speaker 2: they're on the road. He likes him plus four sixty, 593 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 2: so that'll get to parlay started fine Ord against Benfica. 594 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 2: I was torn on a couple like I do like Bologna. 595 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 2: I was little tempted by Celtic, but I'm gonna go 596 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 2: with Stad de Bres plus five p fifty. They're at 597 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 2: home hosting lever Cusen. Lever Cusin is off to a 598 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 2: great start just across the board once again. Of course, 599 00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 2: we know what they did last year, but there's something 600 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 2: about this Breast team that is quite fun. In the 601 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 2: Champions League, they win a nail bier against your boys 602 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 2: stern Graz, in which stern Graz at on the road, 603 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,240 Speaker 2: was down to ten men and it was a two 604 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 2: to one win for Breast, and then they go on 605 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 2: the road and thump Salzburg in a pretty impressive showing. 606 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 2: So I think there's maybe a little bit of teeth 607 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 2: to this team more than we thought. They are sitting, 608 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 2: like I said, second on the table to Dortmund. They 609 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 2: will be at home, They'll be hosting a leverck Housen 610 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 2: team that is much better than them, but the price 611 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 2: is tells us that and plus five fifty at home 612 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 2: in the Champions League. And what I think, you know, 613 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 2: every every season of every sport, there's always one week 614 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 2: where and especially in like weekly sports like college football 615 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 2: or soccer, NFL, et cetera, where where things kind of 616 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 2: just typically go off the rails. I do think there's 617 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 2: potential for for this to be that where there's just 618 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 2: a bunch of crazy results coming off of an international break, 619 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 2: some funny look ahead spots for different teams. But I 620 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 2: do like Stad de Brest at plus five fifty and 621 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 2: as my underdog pick, what about you? 622 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is gonna be a fun one because how 623 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 1: like Dinoo Zagra plus three sixty against Salzburg, the team 624 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 1: you just mentioned, I think his price is really high. 625 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: I don't don't think there's really much of a difference 626 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 1: between these two teams. You know, clops old buddy Pep 627 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,680 Speaker 1: Linders is now managing Salsburg and they've been horrible through 628 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 1: their first two matches you mentioned, Breast beat them four nothing, 629 00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 1: Spartaprogue beat them three nothing in the opening match. Those 630 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 1: are supposed to be their two easier matches in the 631 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 1: Champions League. So now they're in desperation time. And what 632 00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,880 Speaker 1: is happening is teams like Breast and Sparta Prague are 633 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: just exposing them in transition over and over again. Dinamo Zagreb, 634 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 1: the four goals that they've scored in the Champions League 635 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: have all been off transition breaks. Two came against Byron 636 00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: and then two came against Monaco. And what I like 637 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 1: about Zagreb is the first two matches of the Champions League. 638 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,760 Speaker 1: You know, typically in Croatia they will be the ones 639 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,959 Speaker 1: that hold sixty sixty five percent of the ball. Well, 640 00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,600 Speaker 1: they held under forty percent possession in those two matches, 641 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 1: so they got experience having to defend in a low 642 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,200 Speaker 1: block and counter attacking type scenario and they've actually scored 643 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 1: some goals off of it. And the Salsburg team is 644 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 1: just not as good as the Salisburg teams you've seen 645 00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 1: in pass in the Champions League, they have a plus 646 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 1: point set. I haven't expect a gol diffrenchal in the 647 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 1: Austrian Bundesliga, and their two biggest matches against Rapid Veen 648 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:09,480 Speaker 1: and Sturm Graz they were beaten pretty badly. They're actually 649 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,839 Speaker 1: sitting in fifth place in the Austrian Bundesliga right now, 650 00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,920 Speaker 1: so they're struggling to adapt to whatever type of system 651 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 1: PEP Winners is trying to implement. So let's keep exploiting them. 652 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 1: Let's go Zagara plus three sixty. 653 00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,320 Speaker 2: Like I said, that one comes out one hundred and 654 00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 2: sixty six to one. Okay, at the best bets here, 655 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 2: we'll go first. I can't look away from this price 656 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,439 Speaker 2: on uve. Theyre MIGHTUS one fifteen on the three way 657 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 2: line against Stuttgart. There's just something really special happening for 658 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:43,320 Speaker 2: the for the old lady right now, it's a crazy, 659 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 2: crazy start to a season. When you split your first 660 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 2: eight matches between wins and draws, three of the draws 661 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 2: are nil nil. You've conceded one goal on the year 662 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 2: in Syria and it's come via a penalty. Through eight games, 663 00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 2: this team has conceded one goal, it's on a penalty, 664 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,880 Speaker 2: and they are three points back of the team in 665 00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 2: first So it's just it's been a bizarre season. But 666 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 2: I still think there's a lot more room to grow 667 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,839 Speaker 2: for UVE. And the crazy part is, like the expectacles 668 00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 2: are they don't suggest like this is some serious chickannery 669 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 2: or voodoo, like this is an unbelievable defensive outfit. I 670 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 2: think that they have their way with stutke Gart in 671 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,480 Speaker 2: this one, and I think at minus minus one twenty 672 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 2: or better, you're getting a really good price on UVE 673 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,799 Speaker 2: against a stut Caart team that's been more mediocre than 674 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 2: anything else in the Buddhestleigua to start, So give me Youve. 675 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,399 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Inter minus one and a half 676 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,719 Speaker 1: on the road against Young Boys. I think that this 677 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 1: Young Boys team, if they're not worse, they're the second 678 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,800 Speaker 1: worst in this competition coming into this. When the Champions 679 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:49,760 Speaker 1: League started they were in dead last in the Swiss 680 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 1: super League. Well they're up to eighth. They've won two 681 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 1: matches all season long, and their defensive metrics haven't gotten 682 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,839 Speaker 1: any better. They're allowing one point seven to seven expectacles 683 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:02,400 Speaker 1: for ninety minutes Domestic. Well, if you're that bad defensively 684 00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,160 Speaker 1: against teams in the Swiss Super League, that doesn't translate 685 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,400 Speaker 1: well when you have to pace face elite competition, and 686 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,799 Speaker 1: that happened when they face aston Villa they got beat 687 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 1: three to nothing and against Barcelona when they got beat 688 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,319 Speaker 1: five nothing. So what do you think a team like Inter, 689 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:18,720 Speaker 1: who you can make an argument is maybe even better 690 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,359 Speaker 1: offensively than Barcelona and definitely better offensively than aston Villa. 691 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 1: What do you think they're gonna do? I mean, Inter 692 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,880 Speaker 1: consistently over the last three years under Inzagie has averaged 693 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,520 Speaker 1: over two expected goals per ninety minutes against teams in 694 00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 1: the bottom half of the Siria table. They're one of 695 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 1: the most versatle tactical sides in the entire world. And 696 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 1: what's happening with young boys is they continually try to 697 00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 1: press teams high over and over again. They keep getting 698 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,320 Speaker 1: exploited by doing that, and then when they fall behind, 699 00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,399 Speaker 1: well they just get even more and more aggressive trying 700 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:49,840 Speaker 1: to get back into the game, and that just doesn't 701 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,680 Speaker 1: work against Inter. So I think the trend is going 702 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,440 Speaker 1: to continue of this team out of Switzerland just continually 703 00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 1: getting beat by multiple goals. So I like Inter Milan 704 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 1: minus one and a half at plus one five. 705 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 2: All right, that does it for match week three of 706 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 2: the Champions League season. We'll be back again Thursday morning 707 00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 2: to look ahead to the upcoming Premier League weekend with 708 00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 2: our friend Sam Ingram from Betting Expert, and until then, 709 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 2: fest luck with all your bets over the midweek. 710 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 711 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 712 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,360 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler