1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,519 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Cerilli, Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio chief Washington correspondent. 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the sound on Extra Podcast. There was 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: so much news today that we covered in the show 4 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: that we didn't really have a chance to dive into 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: the eco data as much as I would have hoped, 6 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: which is why I'm so grateful that we have this 7 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: sound on Extra Podcast, and even more grateful to have 8 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: Maddie Duppler with us on the show as well as 9 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: here in studio. She is a senior fellow at the 10 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: National Taxpayers Union and former Coalitions director for the House 11 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: Republican Conference and Luis ky Avny. She's a veteran Washington 12 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 1: d c. Journalist and senior lecturer at Johns Hopkins University 13 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: Kerry Business School. All right, here we go, folks. Let's 14 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:46,959 Speaker 1: go through the numbers. Two hundred and sixty three thousand 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: jobs added in the April jobs report that smashed expectations. 16 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: Three point six percent unemployment rate, the lowest in December. 17 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: And what else did you get out of that? Uh? 18 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: That job? Well, I've been saying repeatedly for the last 19 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: several months that the story to watch is the wage story, 20 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: because that has been the missing component of this expansion 21 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: for too long. We've had a job growth but no 22 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 1: wage growth, and of course that means that workers that 23 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: are the ones who are not really feeling needs improvements 24 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: in the economy. Today, we saw that the wages grew 25 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: at three point two percent from this point last year. 26 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:27,839 Speaker 1: That's in pace on pace with nine months nine months 27 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: of wages growing over three percent, which is a pretty 28 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: remarkable pace. Uh in the nineties the lead up in 29 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: the the expansion, there we had job growth that was 30 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 1: over four percent. So we're still you know, we've got 31 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,919 Speaker 1: room to grow. The question that most economists are asking 32 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 1: is what does that look like when it comes to 33 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: inflation then, And we heard from FED Chairman J Powell 34 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: this week where he raised some of the He addressed 35 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: some of the questions about what it will take for 36 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: the FED to start looking seriously at inflation and maybe 37 00:01:56,360 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: acting with regard to that question. But when you look 38 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: at the jobs number today, it's hard not to be 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: enthusiastic about the American economy, particularly because sorry, I I'll 40 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: make this quick, but particularly because when you look at 41 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: that wage number, when you look at the people who 42 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,119 Speaker 1: are coming off of the sidelines back into the workforce. 43 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: People who potentially haven't been employed for years are now 44 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: finding work once again. That is a story of an 45 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: economy that is serving people who have not been a 46 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: part of the expansion up until this point. Okay, so 47 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: this is my point of view about this. So the 48 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:34,640 Speaker 1: lowest unemployment for women since nineteen fifty three, the lowest overall, 49 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: didn't you say? I did say, but but I think 50 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: this bears repeating. I think this truly bears repeating. You 51 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 1: have the lowest unemployment for women since nineteen fifty three, 52 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: and so the ninth lowest unemployment overall since nineteen sixty nine. 53 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: But here's my point, Kevin. You know, you look at 54 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: the women who are in the workplace today. A lot 55 00:02:56,520 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 1: of them are these young um millennial women. And overall 56 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: the people who are in the workplace are you know, 57 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: it's a generational thing. But these people are facing pressures, 58 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: economic pressures that people were not facing in nineteen we're 59 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: not facing in nineteen sixty nine. And the big crushing 60 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: pressure is student loans, and people are carrying tremendous student 61 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: loan test So you can have all of these uh, 62 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: these great you know, these these great metrics, but these 63 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: same people who are super employed, they can't buy a house. 64 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: And this is what I think is the most fascinating 65 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: component of our economy right now, is that we now 66 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: have a workforce that is completely different from anything we've 67 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: seen in prior generations. One because it is older demographically. 68 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: We've got baby boomers who are still working, but they're 69 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: at the end of their work life, which shows up 70 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: differently in data than too because they earn more and 71 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: that sort of thing. But the millennials who have a 72 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: tenure delay essentially on their employment story. All of this 73 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: is are things that we are just beginning to figure out, 74 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: and policymakers are going to have to adapt to what 75 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: the century workforce looks like, and lawmakers should start talking 76 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: about these issues in a more accessible way. I do 77 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: want to just point out, though, that Steven Moore had 78 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 1: a rough week. He's a conservative economist who President Trump 79 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 1: wanted to name to the Fedboard, so he was literally 80 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg Washington Bureau this week ED Board yesterday. 81 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 1: I don't even know my god my name. The day 82 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: gets fired, like the hour before he gets not fired fired. 83 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: I want to correct myself, but we're in the it's 84 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: called the Cabinet Room in the Bloomberg Bureau in Washington, 85 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: d C. With all of our my esteemed colleagues who 86 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 1: cover the central bank communities are like the smartest reporters. 87 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: They're like the Maddie Doublers of the world. And there, 88 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: I mean and Stephen Moore is there's probably like fifteen 89 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: or twenty of us, and we're grilling them, I mean 90 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 1: literally on like monetary policy, fiscal policy, political you know. 91 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: I'm like, Senator doesn't want you. She's a Republican from Iowa. 92 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: The Republicans were dropping like flies, I'm telling you, dropping 93 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: like flies the support because of controversial comments City had made. 94 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: But he was adamant. He literally said, I am quote 95 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,760 Speaker 1: unquote all in. He goes on when we're television, one 96 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,719 Speaker 1: of my dear colleagues and mentors here, Tom Keane, interviewing 97 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 1: him on television. The whole time I'm listening to him, 98 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:21,719 Speaker 1: I'm like, he must know something that we don't know. 99 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: Then like an hour later, you you check President Trump's 100 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: Twitter and it says he's gone. But the reason I 101 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: bring up Steve Stephen Moore is I always want to 102 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: say Steven Miller Stephen Moore is because of this inflation 103 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: question and the job's data, and one of the things, 104 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: and I'm gonna end it here, one of the things 105 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: and that ED board that he said was why is 106 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: it that when we am paraphrasing, why is it that 107 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: when we get a solid jobs number, immediately Wall Street 108 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: starts talking about in inflation? And if you look at 109 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: what has gone on from this job's data, it doesn't 110 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: look like that there's any sign of inflation. Well, and 111 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: what's a little interesting to me on that anecdote is 112 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: that the last press conference that FED Chairman J. Powell held, 113 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: he actually made this exact point where he was like, 114 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: you know, we are not worried about wage inflation. That 115 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: is something that is not part of our our dual mandate. 116 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: We're worried about price inflation. And from from what I'm 117 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: hearing from you, it seems like Stephen Moore was saying 118 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: the same thing. And of course some of the acrimony 119 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: surrounding more was that he is so radical, such a 120 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: departure from what's on the FED board right now on this. 121 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: He may have agreed with the FED chairman himself, but 122 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,559 Speaker 1: I guess we'll just shareholders, the specks rising the most 123 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: in a month as data showed the labor market can 124 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 1: support growth without sparking inflation. I'm reading there from my 125 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 1: colleagues reporting on the Bloomberg Terminal by Rita Nazareth and 126 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: Vildanda hud Trick. I'm Kevin CURRELLI Chef Washington, correspondent for 127 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television of Bloomberg Radio, Mattie Louise, thanks for joining 128 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 1: me on the sound on Extra podcast and that's fun.