1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 3 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and. 4 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. 5 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 2: Tracy. Every day it feels like stocks and gold go 6 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: up every day, stocks and gold, and stocks and gold, 7 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 2: and it's just it's relentless. 8 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 3: I'll tell you what it's good for. Anyone invested in 9 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 3: an index fund and a bunch of gold coins that 10 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 3: their dad gave them. 11 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, good for you. 12 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you. 13 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 2: The Tracy Alloway portfolio doing very well. 14 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 3: Yes, No, you're absolutely right. And the big thing about 15 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: this is it's not really supposed to happen, right, Like 16 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 3: You're not supposed to see stocks shoot up because of 17 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 3: optimism about the future while gold simultaneously goes up because 18 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: gold traditionally is the sort of dour yellow rock as 19 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 3: you like to describe it, which usually signals something that 20 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 3: is about to happen. 21 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: I'm going to relent. I'm going to relent to something. 22 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 3: Are you a gold bug? 23 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 4: Now? 24 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 2: No, Well, I'm going to relent on something. Okay, Right, 25 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 2: I admit that gold is a medal. This is my 26 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 2: big cave. I always no longer a rock. Yeah, this 27 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: is my big cave. I used to say, there's yellow rocks. 28 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 2: You know what, I'll acknowledge it's a medal. 29 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 3: If it's a medal, Now, will you admit that it 30 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 3: has industrial applications? 31 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, but they're very minor. And this is also I 32 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 2: will not acknowledge that there is a a. It is 33 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 2: mainly a store of value, or perceived to be. And 34 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 2: when people are fearful, when people are mistrustful, and people 35 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 2: don't TRUSTI had currencies or the governments, and there's all 36 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: kinds of reasons to be skeptical about the governments that 37 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 2: issue paper currencies. I understand why people want to hold 38 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: this metal that people have used as money for thousands 39 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 2: of years. 40 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 3: I'm going to take you back to the jewelry district 41 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: in New York and get you more excited about gold again. 42 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 2: No, and I'll just say on gold, I loved it. 43 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: And then I wore that big chain when to the 44 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: diamond district, and I wish I'd bought it, like now, 45 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: that's like my bigorite. It was like thirty five thousand 46 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 2: dollars gold necklace, and that today would probably be a 47 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:10,959 Speaker 2: forty five or fifty thousand dollars gold. 48 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 3: Neck Imagine how much that diamond encrusted furbie would be worth. 49 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 2: This is the thing they don't tell you about gold. 50 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 2: By the way, if you spend ten thousand this is 51 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 2: my crank take on gold. That's not crank. If you 52 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 2: spend ten thousand dollars on a gold necklace, they give 53 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 2: you a ten thousand dollars gold necklace. Yes, it's free. 54 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: It's like you spend ten thousand dollars, they give you 55 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 2: something for ten thousand dollars back. In a sense, it's 56 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: a free transaction. 57 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 3: No, you get two things. You got something to wear 58 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 3: and an investment. 59 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 2: Yeah you actually, Yeah. I wish I had had this 60 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 2: realization when gold was like two hundred dollars an ounce. 61 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: But anyway, it took me a while, and it'll. 62 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 3: Make a gold bug of you yet, I'm sure. 63 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 2: So these are really exciting wild times in the market, 64 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 2: and the last time we talked to this guest was 65 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 2: another wild time and an exciting time in the market. 66 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 2: That was, of course April. We do, in fact have 67 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: the perfect guests to try to understand everything that's happening 68 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 2: all around the world in global macro. We're going to 69 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 2: be speaking with the vice Chair of Global Macro at 70 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: Deutsche Bank Ozon Tournament Ozon. Thank you so much for 71 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 2: coming back on odd lots. Last time we talked to you, 72 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 2: we were in London. This time you're in New York, 73 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: so thank you for coming to visit us. 74 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 4: Very good to be in New York. I'd love to 75 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 4: be on this show, I mean, other to be invited again. 76 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 4: UNGA good inners. This is the highlights. And by the way, 77 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 4: I was going to bring my United Amamim Jersey Jurally 78 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 4: looks like him and some Backlaba for Tracy, but couldn't 79 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 4: find in the airport. Next time. 80 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 2: That's a good reason to do another future episode. Actually, 81 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 2: we talked a lot about gold at the beginning, but 82 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 2: I don't want to first ask about gold is in 83 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 2: vidious swallowing the entire US or maybe even global economy. 84 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 4: Almost hand in hand, right, these two questions, I mean, 85 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 4: they both continue to go higher and higher. Actually, let 86 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 4: me start with gold, because you did you did put 87 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 4: such an introy in it. One of the very famous 88 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 4: memes on the internet, Caricultures, done maybe two three years ago. 89 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 4: This gentleman or lady running a big macro h fund 90 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 4: looks around. I run very complicated products, but at the end, 91 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 4: I buy gold, and these days that resonates even more, 92 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 4: mentioned even more and more in these roundtables in TV 93 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 4: studios like this. Normally that jin thinks, but it doesn't 94 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 4: because at the moment it works in risk on and 95 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 4: risk of. Last time you were around again, you called 96 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 4: me at a very relevant time questioning US exceptionalism. I'm 97 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 4: sure we'll go into that. What's going on with US institutions, 98 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 4: those question marks, all those question marks against the dollars 99 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 4: help gold FX is about stories against the dollar. I'm 100 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 4: sure we'll go into this as well. Some of the 101 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 4: stories are now having a less easy time. Then people 102 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 4: like to go into gold and we maybe going into 103 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 4: a rate cut period cycle or not. Whether you're Miran 104 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 4: or Hammock, that differs, but gold works in that as well. 105 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 4: So for the moment, I always feel, you know, when 106 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 4: it's the top three on TVs on my round tables, 107 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 4: I put the orangsign on. But at the moment it 108 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 4: works for a reason. Now, Nimdia, yeah, I mean if 109 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,440 Speaker 4: he had this show a year ago as well, you 110 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 4: could have said all done as of this morning. One 111 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 4: of my partners in success Sarrevelos. His piece is already viral. 112 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 4: He's claiming, tongue in cheek that Nimdia is almost keeping 113 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 4: us away from a recession. All that Chip story, all 114 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 4: that capex spending. If it wasn't for that, maybe we 115 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 4: could either question or be in a recession. 116 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 3: I'm not sure he's saying it that tongue in cheek. 117 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 4: There agreed, and also others are joining him again. I'm 118 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 4: hearing from my dear France clients this day morning Baine claims, 119 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 4: and Lake's revenues quickly catch up with all this aikpex spend, 120 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 4: we may be in big trouble. All of this bill 121 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 4: bursts by twenty thirty, and we'll go into recession before that. 122 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 4: Now we can say a lot can happen before twenty thirty, 123 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 4: but warning signs are there. Last night's the big headlines 124 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 4: the reason why again does that close on the ice 125 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 4: n media investing into open Ai. That also becomes almost circular. 126 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 4: I mean this is not to Oracle invest in open ai, 127 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 4: open a I invest in ni Media, Back and forth, 128 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 4: back and forth. Is this a closed circle? I hear 129 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 4: all the skepticism also mainly coming from those who haven't 130 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 4: caught this big rally. 131 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 2: Since a bubble is a is a bull market that 132 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 2: I called golden bubble. Tracy calls it a boom because 133 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: of the difference. Exact inherited a bunch of exactly. 134 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 3: I should just mention we're recording this on September twenty, I. 135 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 4: Like that, right before, right before Power speech, right before 136 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 4: Trump speech. 137 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 3: So just on AI and the sort of self dealing 138 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 3: circle is circuitous, incestuous relationships. Perhaps one of the reasons 139 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 3: we like talking to you is because you talk to 140 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 3: a lot of clients and so you hear a lot 141 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 3: of feedback from the byside as well, What are people 142 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 3: looking out for in terms of saying, okay, this is 143 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 3: a bubble, because it seems like, all right, people have 144 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 3: been talking about high valuations for a really long time. 145 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 3: The stock just goes up. Is there something else that 146 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: people are like watching for, in which case they might say, actually, 147 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 3: we're going to start cutting back positions. 148 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 4: Excellent question. Almost like two months ago, I was hearing more. 149 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 4: I'm skeptical, but flat cuts are also coming. You can't 150 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 4: fight this now, especially from the pros who've been around 151 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 4: nineties and beyond. I do hear, Look, this does feel 152 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 4: a bit like end of nineties, beginning of two thousands. 153 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 4: By the way, the year your peak is very important there, 154 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 4: but we may still run. That's one thing that more 155 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 4: seasoned equity beyond macro pros are saying. I also it 156 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 4: was a bit the beginning of my career, but I 157 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 4: was around in late nineties, early two thousands. Then the 158 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 4: denominator almost didn't exist in this valuation discussion. There was 159 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 4: hardly any cash around. Everybody stuck Joe dot Com. It's 160 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 4: excellent in B two, be even better in B B 161 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 4: two C. And of course Hindsight is the world's top 162 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 4: page one, but you could feel it. Whereas this time 163 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 4: around you can question one hundred billions thrown around in 164 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 4: a circle, but you cannot question much the revenue the 165 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 4: cash Jensen Nividia open Ai is bringing to the table, 166 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 4: you cannot question much. Let's go beyond Nividia a bit 167 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 4: into Magnificent seven, Microsoft's Apple alphabet. They have customers. All 168 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 4: of us are are their customers. They make money. So 169 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 4: and in a way called talking about circle more posted 170 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 4: way of more glass, helpful way of looking at it. 171 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 4: Nidia is the big champ. Okay, but take ni Media aside. 172 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 4: All of a sudden, oracle became a story for reason. 173 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 4: From oracle, we go to alphabet because for this time 174 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 4: around Judge decided favorably on chrome. The story continues, move 175 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 4: from one I said to another. Also, yeah, Nividia is 176 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,559 Speaker 4: doing great. We'll talk about how Nasdak the Heracules is 177 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 4: catching up with my blue head Mega. But it's a 178 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 4: leave spinning like NI Media is not the top stock 179 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 4: in SMP today, talking about waiting for Godo. Finally, small 180 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 4: caps rolls up since the famous now jacksonvill and another 181 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 4: famous jacksonall Dowis speech. So it's not just one one 182 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 4: one guy is very important November nineteen me media earnings 183 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 4: are very important, but it's not just one stock. 184 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 2: By the way, Ozon was regaling us or showing off 185 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 2: his make Europe Great Again hat, it's signed by Mario Draghi. 186 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 2: If I own that, I'm very jealous. I would not 187 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 2: be carrying it around. I would be carrying it at 188 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: a glass case. I'm selling it maybe for eBay. 189 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 3: You'd have it in the vault along with your gold coins. 190 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 2: I would have it in the vault along with my goal. 191 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 4: But I thatsk how much I did respect my clients. 192 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 4: I want to show. 193 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: Off before we can go further. Actually, for listeners who 194 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 2: maybe didn't hear previous episode with you in April, can 195 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 2: you just give us a little back. You talk to everyone, 196 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:56,239 Speaker 2: you have these dinners, you afford you an incredible perspective 197 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 2: on what a range of people on the street are 198 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,319 Speaker 2: thinking about. Just so that people can understand your perspective 199 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 2: and where you're coming from. What do you do like 200 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 2: on a day to day basis, Who are the range 201 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 2: of people that you talk to and how do you 202 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 2: interact with them? 203 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 4: My job is to talk to my bank's top institution clients. 204 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 4: He funds real money, but also because of experience, talented relationships, 205 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 4: going going deep. This also includes now sotore on wealth funds, 206 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 4: key private banking institutions, and I love as you know, 207 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 4: I'm a person who tries to bring things together. So 208 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 4: in these roundtables, small or bag, it's not just edge funds, 209 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 4: it's not just real money, it's not just sorro and 210 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,079 Speaker 4: wealth funds. All of said classes, credit rates, efs, emerging 211 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 4: Marcus my proud Terro equity of course, so they learn 212 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 4: from each other as well. Because we talked about in 213 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 4: these shows and equity perspective can be very different to 214 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 4: a race perspective. Right as we speak again, we're in 215 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 4: one of these doll drums on if you define macro 216 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 4: just as rates and fcs, it's almost like a magnet. 217 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,559 Speaker 4: Four to twelve. Okay, we try we on us tanyar. 218 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 4: We tried below for pard for twelve, four thirteen, four 219 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 4: to fourteen. As Stacy said, we are recording this on 220 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 4: September twenty three at nine am. In three hours, share 221 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 4: Power will speak. Let's see if he changes tone or 222 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 4: six to his so called Howkish presser. Some people hope 223 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 4: that may again ignite a little bit of the other 224 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 4: stronger rates, higher tone. Otherwise, volatility in effects and rates 225 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 4: are struggling. Meanwhile, equity is continue to do better and better. 226 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 4: And back to your question. Different sets of clients coming 227 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 4: to my roundtables, coming to my realm, learn from each 228 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 4: other on why differents classes act different. 229 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 3: So you mentioned the dollar just then, and of course 230 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 3: you have a very international group of clients that you're 231 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 3: talking to. Can we talk about the dollar drop this year? 232 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 3: Because I think it's really important and even though it 233 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 3: gets some attention, it's nowhere near enough because we're talking 234 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 3: about stocks rallying, US stocks rallying. Things look a lot 235 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,319 Speaker 3: different when you start to adjust for currencies. How are 236 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 3: people thinking about US assets in light of the dollar drum? 237 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 4: Very fair, I'm tim Odlass. So I also remember last 238 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 4: time we met is April sixteen in London, so just 239 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 4: a week before the big fear You're dollar was right 240 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 4: around one eleven. We were beginning to sense that this 241 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 4: could be a historic here in terms of this dedorization. 242 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 4: He fund ratio is changing, but we swift the mood 243 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 4: beyond one fifteen as well. Now looking at the picture, 244 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 4: two things are very important. First of all, the flows 245 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,959 Speaker 4: back to our friend Nividia, back to our friend magnificent seven. 246 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 4: Because one pushback from some of my especially fast money friends, 247 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 4: who all either smell, want, or wish a dollar squeeze 248 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,439 Speaker 4: after such a soft dollar move is what will the 249 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 4: flows do? World continues to buy Nividia's and Microsoft's do 250 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 4: they buy it hashed? So I was a little bit 251 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 4: skeptic on that. By the way, flows are back, so 252 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 4: a big difference to Aple sixteen. I'll talk we can 253 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 4: talk about that as well. Retail led rally. Look where 254 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 4: we are all time high my research reports and claims 255 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 4: again George Servelos that in the last recent thirty forty 256 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 4: five days or so, those laws almost eighty percent of 257 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 4: them are heged, so people are buying their Nidia haged 258 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 4: so believe it or not, eighty percent is a big number, 259 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 4: say seventies eighty sixty. That definitely helps the soft dollar 260 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 4: side of things. What continues to help is, of course 261 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 4: institutionists decreasing their exposure to US. Like hindsight I said 262 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 4: rightly on that April sixteen, nothing to end the US 263 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 4: private site exceptionalism. Nidia's microsofts so far are fighting back 264 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 4: the tests of deep sick, even though champion of the 265 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 4: year is China Tech in terms of performance, but from 266 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 4: Asia so Nordics big funds are reducing their dollar exposure 267 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 4: a little bit seven to sixty five, sixty to fifty five. 268 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 4: That makes a difference. That made a difference. 269 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 2: This is really important. I think we should just continue 270 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 2: on the specific line because what it sounds like is 271 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: all around the world you have to have dollars to 272 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 2: buy in video, and video is a stock that's sold 273 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 2: in dollars. It's profits are denominated in dollars. It's sales. 274 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 2: It sells things in dollars, and that's the same for 275 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 2: all of the mag seven include Microsoft and Apple, and 276 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 2: all of them are doing phenomenally well. They have real profits, 277 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 2: real earnings and so forth. They're very excellent businesses. And 278 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 2: it sounds like basically all around the world people want 279 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 2: exposure to a handful of extraordinary US companies. They just 280 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 2: don't want to take the risk that the denominator and 281 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 2: this time we're not talking about earning but that or 282 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: that the dollar that they trade in or selling, et cetera, 283 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 2: is going to go down further. So they want everything 284 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 2: about this. They just basically don't want the US sovereign 285 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: exposure that's connected to these American domicile companies. 286 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 4: Completely correct, and honestly, I was a little bit skeptic. 287 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 4: I wasn't sure. If you told me Osan this year, 288 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 4: this big surgeon back in NI media Microsoft won't happen, 289 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 4: then I would feel even more comfortable with the short 290 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 4: dolar position. But Magnificent seven roads it may even pass 291 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 4: Mega despite that is also remaining sort so whether I 292 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 4: was skeptical or not, what you explained is happening. But 293 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 4: I think for the next legs are included. A lot 294 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 4: of biensy site are calling for one twenty one, twenty 295 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 4: two light levels. You need now the European side of 296 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 4: the story or whoever you want to talk about Japan, China, 297 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 4: the lagger side of the story FX is too legged. 298 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 4: We talked about why the dollar side of short dollar worked. 299 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 4: We need now a bit more help from our European 300 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 4: story Tersea. 301 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 2: You know what strikes me is interesting about this, which 302 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 2: is that when we think about countries where there's political 303 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 2: risk and so forth, we don't often associate them with 304 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 2: the most impressive enterprises in the world, right, And it 305 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 2: strikes me that that's the tension we're talking about here, 306 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 2: is that there's all this anxiety about the US as 307 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 2: a sovereign for all kinds of reasons. That's not unusual. 308 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 2: Other countries have sovereign risk. They're just usually not home 309 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 2: to literally the most impressive companies in the world. 310 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 3: No, and it is true that most of the investor 311 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 3: nervousness around the US has shown up on the sovereign. 312 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, not the corporate sete, rather than the corporate. 313 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 3: Side, which we've been writing about in the auth Loots newsletter. 314 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: Which everyone should subscribe. 315 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 3: To it, Yes, seamless plug just then. Okay. One of 316 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 3: the other I guess big questions about the market right 317 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 3: now is there's clearly nervousness about fiscal dominance and Federal 318 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 3: Reserve independence, and that is playing into the drop in 319 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 3: the dollar too. And yet at the same time stocks 320 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 3: seem to be taking off and a lot of investors 321 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 3: don't seem to be that nervous, at least on the 322 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 3: equity side. What accounts for the discrepancy there the two. 323 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 4: Different roles pluging about plugging. I also love the New 324 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,680 Speaker 4: York Times piece. I think you guys deserve all the 325 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 4: trust me, all those trans clients, they listen, they are 326 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 4: very excited when I'm on now. Tracy definitely hit the 327 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 4: right point. Deed organization is one key big team going 328 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 4: into the end of the year. Fiscal dominance or not 329 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 4: and the famous fed independence. Those are my second and 330 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 4: third key topics. By the way, where where are tariffs? 331 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 4: All the way down to four? I forgot about dominance, 332 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 4: So we talk right. I love brainstorming with you guys. 333 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 4: Remember what I said in August as well summer everybody 334 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 4: was everybody like some key investors, especially fast money. We're 335 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:43,200 Speaker 4: gunning for from my deer islands. Four key trust moments 336 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 4: in four countries at the same time. What does that mean? 337 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,400 Speaker 4: I mean trust moments. We said, you know what I'm 338 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 4: talking about, long hands getting out of control for people's 339 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 4: For Marcus. 340 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 2: Big fisical, US, UK, Japan was the four for the. 341 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 4: Right Reasons Europe book for Right Reasons because ramp up 342 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 4: the German span will come at the end of the 343 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 4: at the end of the year, et cetera. Some key 344 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 4: investors were asking, well, one trust moment, we know how 345 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 4: we handled chance. Later down prime minister goes different sets 346 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 4: of policies. What happens if four goes at the same time. 347 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 4: And we tried this on talking about dates September two, 348 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 4: when you guys came back from wherever you came back 349 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 4: from on the long final fine and final, long location, 350 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 4: long weekend, UK Gild's big move, followed by France because 351 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 4: the Prime Minister was about to go in six days, 352 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 4: joined Tracy. How long did it last? Four hours? That 353 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 4: long hand sell off lasted four hours And I'm not 354 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 4: trying to be funny. Basically since then US thirty years, Europe, 355 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 4: even UK has been much more under control. Up until 356 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 4: the Hawkish presser almost threatening below four percent, even more 357 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 4: than short dollars Tracy over the summer and inter fal 358 00:18:55,480 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 4: what were the real money and dhe funds common fail 359 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 4: with trade steepeners, steepeners, steepeners Europe, US, everybody and their 360 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 4: brother had steepeners first for different reasons. On Us more 361 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 4: due to the short end that sooner or later will 362 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 4: come to the Fed independence, the Trump side of the 363 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 4: equation would win more. Finally, the powerwood caving cuts would 364 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 4: come in and on the European side even more popular 365 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 4: because of the long end German spending coming through in 366 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 4: October November, and people believed in their steepeners. First, US 367 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 4: got hurt to nfp's myths, long hand moved big flatteners, 368 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 4: hurt gold aside whenever you say, or Nividia side, whenever 369 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 4: you say, somebody says a trade is untouchable, watch out. 370 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 4: European steepeners were supposed to be untouchable. Two days after 371 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 4: that flattening washout in US, Europe also got reduced and 372 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 4: since Tropkish pressure, we're more balanced onto Fed independence again. 373 00:19:56,240 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 4: Justice Morning of the Press mattter raskin my head of 374 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,680 Speaker 4: US race strategy previously from the FED. Very respectable analyst 375 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 4: wrote about this FED independence sphere not being in the price, 376 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 4: not in the break evens, not in the term premiere. 377 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 4: Why I think a little bit, because so far, let's 378 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 4: die right into it if you wish. I think this 379 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 4: cut is justified in my mind. Even if they cut 380 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 4: fifty a week ago, it could have been justified talking 381 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 4: about some deer clients friends public So I may say 382 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 4: Reek reader publicly on TV and on his writing set, 383 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,640 Speaker 4: they may and they should cut fifty because I think 384 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 4: if they sold the revisions in June and July, they 385 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 4: probably would have cut in June and July and going forward. Okay, 386 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 4: they cut twenty five. Not only they cut twenty five. 387 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 4: Miran did this thing probably that's the dot. But Waller 388 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 4: Woman stuck to twenty five. Even some of the previous 389 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 4: FED governors racing for the job. Bullard says they should 390 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 4: have done twenty five. So people are thinking and hoping 391 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 4: that there's still some fading dependence. Powell, even though he's 392 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 4: the past man, has some control over the situation. That's 393 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 4: why you're not getting any fading dependence. 394 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 3: Feed on the long ends, Joe, it is interesting and 395 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 3: I would not have expected this earlier in the year. 396 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 3: But if you look at the move index, so the 397 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 3: index of non market volatility, it's going down. It's gone 398 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 3: down quite a bit, which is not exactly what you 399 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 3: might expect to happen when we're talking about things like 400 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 3: physical dominance and federal reserve independence. But there you go. 401 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 2: That is a good chart I haven't looked at in 402 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 2: a long time. I want to go back to the 403 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 2: gold conversation because we've kind of been dancing around to 404 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 2: We're like, oh, political volatility in the US and sovereign 405 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 2: risk in the US, et cetera. But like, let's talk 406 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 2: about like gold in the US or gold and the dollar. 407 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: Like when you talk to clients, setting aside that it's 408 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: a good trade, people want to ride a good trade, 409 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 2: et cetera, how much fear anxiety, et cetera is there 410 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 2: about US political constability? And what are the and I 411 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 2: mean a prominent political commentator got assassinated recently in the 412 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 2: United States. Sadly, what are people at your geners maybe 413 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 2: inside the US or outside dinners saying about the US 414 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,120 Speaker 2: when they look at our country. 415 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,239 Speaker 4: That's why more and more countries are building up their 416 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 4: reserves in gold shying away from a dollar more. My 417 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 4: motherland Turkey is an example, again publicly known in terms 418 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 4: of reserves. Also, let's remember what is still going on 419 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 4: versus Ukraine and Russia, the sanctions that Russia faced or 420 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,159 Speaker 4: may face, so different countries are also because of that 421 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 4: leaning more towards gold. So besides our macro discussions ups 422 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 4: and downs of rates, that's uncertainty, that question mark over 423 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 4: US policy, that question mark over geopolitics leads central banks 424 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 4: to accumulate more gold. Joe for gold to go down. 425 00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 4: The game should change. Like this year, my plan is 426 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 4: going all right. Again, I was on air. I thought 427 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,200 Speaker 4: these big sipner transformans long aans crushing everything wouldn't happen. 428 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 4: I didn't expect this much of a comeback. But again 429 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 4: I said there would be a comeback, especially retail, much 430 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 4: more than pros belied in this nimdia gold go hand 431 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 4: in hand together. There should be something off the left field, 432 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 4: for example, maybe on tariffs. All of a sudden, tariffs 433 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 4: tongue in cheek, Tracy are a bit too good boy revenues. 434 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 4: They raise a lot of revenues. Twitter talks about the 435 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 4: TV's talk about the Torton Stock talks about it if 436 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 4: Supreme Court at whatever time, and that's also very key 437 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 4: when they make the decision Walt's against. I'm sure they may. 438 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 4: I know, they may use S three oh one, et cetera, 439 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 4: but will be all of the big that's the question mark. Now, 440 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 4: what will the Trump administration do? What will best send 441 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 4: to long aance can get going again, And even though 442 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 4: it's got nothing to do with necessarily Nimidia and gold, 443 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 4: the year's path may change and things like that can 444 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:57,120 Speaker 4: take us off the. 445 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 2: What about a big handshake with Chision and a new 446 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what it would be. And 447 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 2: you know, my dream obviously is for a by D 448 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 2: factory in Tennessee one day, show me factory, et cetera. 449 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 2: But could that be a oh, this charge is in 450 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 2: a new direction, something that is like a real let's 451 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 2: reset this relationship. I'm not optimistic, but would that be 452 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 2: the type of thing that could reset the trajectory of 453 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 2: certain markets? 454 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 4: You talked like my Joe, like a globalist Tennessee factory 455 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 4: by D. I mean that's not the pulse at the moment, 456 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 4: but sure if that happens, my gut feels still says 457 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 4: a short lived correction. But yes, that's that's what did 458 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 4: I say. That's not too pulse, That's not the New 459 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 4: York pulse at the moment. It would be a positive spice, 460 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 4: a little bit less scared of things spies and yeah, 461 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 4: it could see that eating. 462 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 3: So I know it's number four on your list now. 463 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 3: But we should talk about tariffs a little more. And 464 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 3: I take the point that it could be a revenue 465 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 3: generator for the US and maybe that provides some support 466 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 3: on the bond side of things. But on the other hand, 467 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 3: I think most people would argue that it would slow 468 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 3: economic growth, which should be a drag on the equity side. 469 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 3: But we haven't really seen that. How are people talking 470 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 3: about the actual impact of tariffs right now? And I 471 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 3: gotta say, Joe, I got my first customs bill over 472 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,119 Speaker 3: the weekend. It wasn't too bad. I think it was 473 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 3: like sixteen dollars or something, But I feel them personally 474 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 3: very fair. 475 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 4: Comeback. I yess, especially fast money crowds hasn't necessarily given 476 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 4: up on ceculation. My takes for part of the reason 477 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 4: why all these new media gold long end calls have 478 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 4: been correct. I like to fade the inflation hulks, and 479 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,000 Speaker 4: I like to fait the big recession bears, who are 480 00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 4: much more quite these days anyway. But yes, if continues 481 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 4: to stick to them, even though on one hand they 482 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 4: generate revenue and keep the long end under under control, 483 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 4: there may be a growth impact on the other side, 484 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:14,199 Speaker 4: accompanied by splice side immigration effects. And the jury is 485 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 4: out there on dear mister Waller, whether led by him, 486 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 4: whether this is the famous world the words, whether this 487 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 4: is transitory or not. More and more some clients start 488 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,640 Speaker 4: to say, my binkie, the famous chief global economists start 489 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 4: to saying, maybe this tariff effect wasn't as bad, both 490 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,959 Speaker 4: on growth side and on inflation side. These people immediately 491 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 4: get a pushback early days, early days. Let's wait, so 492 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,679 Speaker 4: will companies continue to eat them and not pass that 493 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,360 Speaker 4: much to the traces of the world to the customer, 494 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 4: especially when we talk of beyond ten percent terrists which 495 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 4: most countries face next year. Your country faces are very 496 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:58,320 Speaker 4: key midterm elections. So I think Trump and Bessent know 497 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 4: that they got elected because of inflation. So the moment 498 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:08,119 Speaker 4: the tacflation camp starts to look like they are proving correct, 499 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 4: even look like a bit of a climb on inflation 500 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,639 Speaker 4: more so down on growth. I think we may we 501 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 4: may get more and more taco because they want to 502 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 4: win those midterm elections, then they will take more and 503 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 4: more steps over on race. But if they prove correct, 504 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,160 Speaker 4: if it's not reflected on the customer, if inflation continues 505 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 4: to remain Okay, I know it's not two percent, but 506 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 4: below three percent, maybe this statistical continues. 507 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 3: Sorry, did you just call pinky Chata my pinky? 508 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 1: You have? 509 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 4: Even like when we there's a lot of preparation going 510 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 4: for these macrodners as well. Trust me, when he sends 511 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 4: his questions and his keybouet points, he tells me to 512 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 4: start with my binki. 513 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 2: I don't think we've ever heard him on the party. 514 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,199 Speaker 2: We Gotta Yeah. I talked to him a couple of 515 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,680 Speaker 2: times on TV. A big fan of his. We Gotta 516 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 2: make that happen. When you think about the US economy 517 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 2: and maybe the European economy too, but I think it's 518 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,120 Speaker 2: US and you think about growth prospects. This is something 519 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 2: I've been asking a lot of people about, like how 520 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,399 Speaker 2: much do you think the US economy as a just 521 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 2: the forward momentum of the US economy, especially over the 522 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 2: course of your career, how much has it become dependent 523 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,919 Speaker 2: on this perpetual rise in asset values And you think, like, 524 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,560 Speaker 2: do we need a booming market year after year just 525 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 2: to keep that sort of like consumption demand engine, investment 526 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 2: engine going. 527 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 4: Well, yes, it's the short answer. I think the details 528 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 4: are even more complicated a bit sad. I think you 529 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,040 Speaker 4: need you we need in this game that's eating it. 530 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 4: The next thing it was B to B B two 531 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 4: C three decades ago, three D. Now of course AI 532 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 4: AI AI the past three years. And also US, I 533 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 4: mean again as the country that gain my education right 534 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,600 Speaker 4: in more open times, for that relies on growth, relies 535 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 4: on animal spirits, relies on those classes to go higher 536 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 4: and higher. And that's why the Tacy question from like 537 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,600 Speaker 4: ten minutes ago. It's very key whether we're at you know, 538 00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 4: we're getting their stage of the bubble or we're at 539 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 4: the bubble, because if that bursts, economy can get effected 540 00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 4: as well. Also, Joe, I'm a big believer in the 541 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 4: k economy, the whole terminology of that. So I said 542 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,719 Speaker 4: this again before on your shows. World may be more 543 00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 4: okay for whatever we define ourselves as one percent, five 544 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 4: percent point one percent. There's a much bigger part who 545 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 4: are struggling, definitely on us, but globally as well. Some 546 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 4: again it's a statistics thrown out there. These days, ten 547 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 4: percent of the US consumers accumulate almost fifty percent of 548 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 4: the consumption and the rest much less. Valve effect is 549 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 4: getting bigger and bigger. When I was in college running 550 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 4: around in this country, again, we were talking about the 551 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 4: valve gap. But now this becomes relevant, even macrorelevant. That's 552 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 4: why people like me are okay with the Rade cuts, 553 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:51,239 Speaker 4: risk management or not. 554 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 2: When you encounter Americans in London, or Americans in Europe 555 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,600 Speaker 2: or anywhere outside the English many in Europe, do they 556 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 2: bad mouth US policy? Do they like talk about how 557 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 2: terrible and like how much our institutions are deteriorating, and 558 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 2: how we need to get back to that sort of 559 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 2: like good old fashioned IMF orthodox economics of the good 560 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 2: old days. 561 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 4: Okay, let me get the past from Kobe and do 562 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 4: a bit of a shack look they do, especially if 563 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 4: they have liked me born and read emerging markets, but 564 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 4: now trading the whole wide world, and if they are 565 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 4: Americans during my beautiful, beautiful world, they are affected like 566 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 4: when they hear conversations like this, they understand when they 567 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 4: traded Turkey are hungry Argentina and say, okay, because of 568 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 4: this politics financial repression, I don't believe it. That's why 569 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,239 Speaker 4: I'm selling the currency. It was easier to do for 570 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 4: somebody else's land and currency. Now both it's hurt them 571 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 4: a bit. And also it becomes a bit of a dilemma. Right. 572 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 4: They may continue to criticize some of the things that 573 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,640 Speaker 4: are going on, but for the arguments that I laid out, 574 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 4: risk parity at least depart continues to do okay, and 575 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 4: US ten years still is not going to six percent. 576 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 4: It frustrates them. This brings me to not in the 577 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 4: mine are big, big ones, but big thematics A key 578 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 4: point going forward, much beyond the fourth quarter. What's going 579 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 4: to win the trust moments my symbolic way of saying, 580 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 4: fiscal dominance or financial repression. Again, somebody who's experienced in 581 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:28,480 Speaker 4: these Turkeys, hungry Argentina's of the world, what does their 582 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 4: mister bestan say? As a former client friend tell a 583 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 4: friend banding the curve, he literally said, I'll bend the turf. 584 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 4: We will take care of the curve. You know yet 585 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 4: banned even not take care of maybe true like they do, 586 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 4: being very watchful over the auctions, making sure auctions go 587 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 4: very well, which they have been. One tips auction a side, 588 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 4: maybe through buying much more on the short end vice 589 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 4: versa buying more on the on the long end, to 590 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,479 Speaker 4: make sure that those rates stay under control. Operation twists 591 00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 4: are eleven twelve. They may win over majority. Is taught 592 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 4: that fiscal dominance women, my god feel continued to say, 593 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 4: don't necessarily bet against whether you like it or not. 594 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,760 Speaker 4: FED and Treasury working more closely together on this ala 595 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 4: us financial repression. Going back to your questions, some clients 596 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 4: that Americans I meet in New York, London or Saint 597 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,960 Speaker 4: Paulo are a bit taken aback by saying, AREIC becoming 598 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 4: a bit emergent marketized? What do you mean by Treasury 599 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 4: and FED working even closely together? This is not two 600 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 4: thousand and eight two thousand and nine, But so far 601 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 4: those to bet towards that tols to bet with, mister 602 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 4: bethsand did better on their longan US views. 603 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,960 Speaker 3: Speaking of the wide world, what are your clients saying 604 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 3: about China in particular? Because you know I'm looking at 605 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 3: a very good Bloomberg story on my screen right now. 606 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 3: China floods the world with cheap exports after Trump's tariffs, 607 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,680 Speaker 3: and I think they just posted a record trades surplus. 608 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,240 Speaker 2: And there was another good article is from More Worrying 609 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 2: China wanting to be a gold storage hub was really straight. 610 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,320 Speaker 4: He did become a gold goldic. 611 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 3: Doing a Switzerland. 612 00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 4: Yeah. 613 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:08,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the free point. 614 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 3: But on the other hand, you know, growth has been 615 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 3: slowing in China and there is deflation, but if you 616 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,040 Speaker 3: look at something like the Shanghai composite, it feels like 617 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,600 Speaker 3: people are starting to get a little bit more optimistic. 618 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 3: What are you hearing? 619 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 4: Three parts of that. First of all, China as an 620 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 4: asset class, we have it here as alongside Golden emerging 621 00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 4: Marcus Champion of the Year in December, November, January earlier. 622 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 4: Everybody and their brother a bit like this, not a 623 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,880 Speaker 4: bit like the steepener trade of this August early September, 624 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,280 Speaker 4: it was the top trade going long dollar CNH. These 625 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 4: tariffs lightisers, they will be the toughest on China. There 626 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 4: is no way. All the dollar CNCH calls were both 627 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 4: starting with seven and a half flights at eight all 628 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,640 Speaker 4: of that didn't materialize. Okay, we didn't go to six 629 00:33:55,720 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 4: ninety six eighty, but the NH is appreciating talking about 630 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 4: the day we made April sixteen. On April nine, the 631 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 4: big fear was on that morning when we questioned the 632 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 4: system April nine morning, China would devalue big time, big bank. 633 00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:12,919 Speaker 4: They didn't do any of that. And currently my head 634 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 4: of Greater China Trading ten who named drop nice to 635 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 4: call this China Take and nah Rally thinks that and 636 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,640 Speaker 4: with his research, RMB strength has more legs to go 637 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 4: because whenever they go around the world, Peru ports Brazil 638 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:31,320 Speaker 4: amazon forests following the China corpus. Back to our discussion, 639 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,360 Speaker 4: these guys are full of dollars out of their ears 640 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 4: and now for discussions for the points that you mentioned, 641 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 4: they want to hage a little bit, so they want 642 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,799 Speaker 4: to sell their dollars a little bit and that's a 643 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:45,720 Speaker 4: big factor. So that's I think China Take will continue 644 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 4: to be the champion asset class. Gone to my head, 645 00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:50,960 Speaker 4: maybe not going to six ninety six eighty, but I 646 00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 4: am still betting with CNH and R and B strength 647 00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 4: over the dollar strength. One of these leggers of the 648 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,759 Speaker 4: year will do better to the world effect. You guys 649 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,319 Speaker 4: actually bloomberg at a great piece this very morning, like 650 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 4: Tracy said, on exporting this inflation. So two big countries 651 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,680 Speaker 4: in this world are American are China. Mister Trump is 652 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,160 Speaker 4: doing what he's doing on the tariff side. These other 653 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 4: big countries of the world don't necessarily fight with the 654 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,640 Speaker 4: other big giant in the world stage. So those cheap 655 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,360 Speaker 4: cars are coming into Europe than beyond and that is 656 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,719 Speaker 4: a macro factor. Why because ECB back to blue hat. 657 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 4: Now they're done. Madame la Guarde very definedly says they're 658 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 4: done for now. Madame Schnabel for now is winning the discussion. 659 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,879 Speaker 4: Even Lane is sounding a bit more like her, more hawkish. 660 00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 4: Let's see they don't we maybe we don't have an 661 00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:44,839 Speaker 4: inflation problem painting below two percent if anything, my Mark 662 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 4: World Chief European Economist thinks it may go lower to 663 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,400 Speaker 4: one point six to one point five. If that happens, 664 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 4: Let's see what their twenty is come December, come January. 665 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 4: If this China contries to export to this inflation, maybe, 666 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 4: even though they don't say it now, they may have 667 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:02,400 Speaker 4: to end up cutting. So that's that's a big factor 668 00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,240 Speaker 4: for the European story. 669 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,440 Speaker 3: Joe, we should have asked Ozon to wear his europe 670 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 3: hat for this entire interview. 671 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,640 Speaker 2: I know it's a cool hat. It was a time 672 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 2: advice y of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank. Always a 673 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 2: pleasure meeting up with you. Always seems to be an 674 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:21,359 Speaker 2: exciting times in the market. Also, if we like talking 675 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,440 Speaker 2: to you because it's just a list of deutsch Bank analysts, 676 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,160 Speaker 2: is like, oh yeah, we need to talk to that guy. 677 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,399 Speaker 2: We need to talk to that guy. Yeah right, good 678 00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 2: sales anyway, Thank you so much. 679 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,319 Speaker 4: This was great. Thank you so much. 680 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 2: I love catching upon for all kinds. Always really fun. 681 00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,400 Speaker 2: He's a great read on one of the popular trades 682 00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:52,680 Speaker 2: for right now. 683 00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 3: It's just the talking points, right, and the talking points 684 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 3: this idea that you know, we we don't talk. 685 00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:02,520 Speaker 2: About the Chinese market that much in terms of the 686 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 2: stock market. We do a little bit. But the idea 687 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 2: that from his perspective, long China is up there right 688 00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,720 Speaker 2: now with all the big ones in Nvidia and Gold 689 00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 2: and up until recently the steepener, maybe that's fallen off 690 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:17,239 Speaker 2: a little bit because it hasn't worked as well. That 691 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 2: this is one of the sort of top tier consensus 692 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 2: trades right now, something that we should probably talk about further. 693 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,879 Speaker 3: I also find it interesting that tariffs have fallen from 694 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,600 Speaker 3: like number one on the list of concerns to like 695 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 3: number four. 696 00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 2: If that no, that's totally right. I mean when we 697 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,360 Speaker 2: talked to him, that was middle of April in London 698 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,359 Speaker 2: or early April, I think, and so it was all 699 00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 2: about tariffs. And yet despite the fact that tariffs are 700 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 2: not top of mind for a lot of traders apparently 701 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 2: right now, it is interesting that still this idea too, 702 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,280 Speaker 2: we don't really want to have exposure to the US 703 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,800 Speaker 2: per se. We want to have exposure to US companies, 704 00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,560 Speaker 2: but not the US per se. That's all part of 705 00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:56,960 Speaker 2: the story. 706 00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 3: Speaking of which, another really good chart to look at 707 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,480 Speaker 3: right now is gold versus real rates. So you can 708 00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 3: bring up like tip yields or something like that, and 709 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,720 Speaker 3: you can see there used to be a really strong, 710 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 3: almost one for one correlation and that's broken now. 711 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,839 Speaker 2: It's very interesting, right because it suggests that there's something 712 00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,279 Speaker 2: else going right right, because it's very easy to say, okay, 713 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,200 Speaker 2: real raids, et cetera, they're going down. You want to like, 714 00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:23,759 Speaker 2: I think it's that sovereign's sovereign concern. It's like something deeper, 715 00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 2: and it may be deeper to a lot of different 716 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 2: sort of you know, Western governments and Fiat currencies and 717 00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 2: so forth. A lack of trust. Maybe something that doesn't 718 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,479 Speaker 2: show up in a traditional market showing up in gold. 719 00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:38,760 Speaker 2: I do think that's really important. 720 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, shall we leave it there. 721 00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:41,120 Speaker 2: Let's leave it there. 722 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,800 Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 723 00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,839 Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway and. 724 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,280 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 725 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,759 Speaker 2: Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand desh O 726 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,000 Speaker 2: Bennett at Dashbot and Cal Brooks at Keil Brooks. For 727 00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 2: more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg dot com flash 728 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,520 Speaker 2: odd Lots, where the daily news and all of our episodes. 729 00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,839 Speaker 2: You could chout about all of these topics twenty four 730 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,880 Speaker 2: to seven in our discord Discord dot gg slash out Lots. 731 00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,000 Speaker 3: And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it 732 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,040 Speaker 3: when we get a read on what people are talking 733 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,840 Speaker 3: about in markets, then please give us a positive review 734 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:18,000 Speaker 3: on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are 735 00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,520 Speaker 3: a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our 736 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,520 Speaker 3: episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is 737 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,480 Speaker 3: find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the 738 00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,600 Speaker 3: instructions there. Thanks for listening.