1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:03,440 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:09,040 Speaker 2: All the work, all the talk, all the handicapping is done. 3 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: It's time for history. They're all in line. We're ready 4 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: for this time. 5 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 2: They're all in the Brekness rank. 6 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,319 Speaker 3: Another two legs more back to win win wind on 7 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 3: the turn, beginning to. 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: Pick up dride near the back of the pack. As 9 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 2: the field turns for home, Hendy first do and opening 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: on the outside. It's trying first drive as they come 11 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,639 Speaker 2: to up final for a long get fedling on what's. 12 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: Proven on to the line, but a possible result here. 13 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 2: WHSI break this. 14 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network podcast, presented by Bet MGM. 15 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 3: We are back for some horse racing best bets, getting 16 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 3: set for Preakness one on Saturday from historic Pimlico Racecourse 17 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 3: and beautiful Baltimore, Maryland. Mike Conti, our horse racing contributor 18 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 3: at Action Network, joins us Shanzarello. He's a jack of 19 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: all trades. He's here as well. The path to the 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 3: Triple Crown continues. We are recording here on May fifteenth, 21 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 3: getting you set. So we had some morning breaking news 22 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 3: and I think that's just a good way to start, 23 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 3: just before we dive in very similar to our Best 24 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 3: Bets episode regarding the Kentucky Derby, we will go through 25 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 3: horses that the guys are going to toss and just 26 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 3: eliminate from their card in terms of how they want 27 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 3: to attack the field favorite contenders with that list being 28 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 3: cut down, discussed some long shots as well as exotics, 29 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 3: exact as, trifectas, super effectas the whole deal, and then 30 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 3: we'll also discuss some undercard bets towards the end of 31 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: the show. And Mike Conti's also got a best bet 32 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 3: for Friday, so we'll work that in as well at 33 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 3: the end of the program. So, Shanzarello, your first thoughts 34 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 3: on Mouth being scratched due to an elevated temperature, so 35 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 3: being out, how is that going to affect your handicapping here? 36 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 3: Week unfolds? 37 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, Mouth was the Preakna's favorite and future odds before 38 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,600 Speaker 2: the Derby had been run, and he previously finished second 39 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 2: to Fierceness, who was the Derby morning line favorite in 40 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 2: the Juvenile last year and had improved, you know, off 41 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 2: of that Arkansas Derby and wasn't allowed to run at 42 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby because Bob Afford is still suspended or 43 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 2: banned from Churchill down. So this is a horse that 44 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,079 Speaker 2: should have been in the Derby field, was not for 45 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 2: reasons right, and was expected to be the main challenger 46 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,119 Speaker 2: to Fierceness had Fierceness won that race and then come here, 47 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: And would have been very curious to see what the 48 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 2: odds would have been had Fierceness won that race one 49 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 2: in spectacular fashion and then come and faced off against 50 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: Mouth again. But Mouth had a ninety eight buyer speed score, 51 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 2: which was the second highest figure in this field. But 52 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 2: most people expected him to improve off of that, and 53 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 2: that's why he was a favorite at eight to five, 54 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 2: and I believe Mike and I both believed he was 55 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 2: the most likely winner of the race since he was 56 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 2: the freshest horse. 57 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: And one of the fastest horses. 58 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 2: That said, we were both trying to find ways to 59 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 2: beat him at eight to five. So I think it 60 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 2: does suck some value out of the odds and out 61 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 2: of the overall betting value of this race, just because 62 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 2: he's now out of there, and he was the short 63 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 2: favorite that I was trying to beat. Now he's no 64 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 2: longer there, so the odds have to go where the 65 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: money has to go to horses that I like like 66 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 2: Mystic Dan and a few others that we'll get into, 67 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 2: and I would imagine mistic Dan will be the morning 68 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:25,119 Speaker 2: line favorite, curious to see who gets bet up behind him, 69 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 2: though I would imagine a horse like Catching Freedom, who 70 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 2: is a very popular pick going into the Derby, who's 71 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: six to one in the morning line for the Breatness, 72 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 2: is probably going to draw a lot of the betting 73 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 2: attention along with Mystic Dan, just because people do like 74 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 2: to bet the horses coming out of the Derby into 75 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 2: the Preakness, just because they tend to be a little 76 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 2: bit classier than the opponents they're going to face. And 77 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 2: as I said, with Moose scratching out, who was the 78 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 2: one horse that you could justifiably say should have been 79 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 2: in the Derby? I think there are the top two contenders. 80 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 3: Mike your Thoughts says the triple Crown path for Mystic Dan. 81 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 3: There's light at the end of the tunnel. Perhaps with 82 00:03:59,040 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 3: this smooth news. 83 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, as Sean said, Muth was the deserving 84 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: favorite heading into this race. He was the Preakness future 85 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: favorite leading up to the Derby. And I think you know, Glash, 86 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 2: you just touched on it. It becomes really interesting. Now 87 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 2: Mystic Dan will be the favorite, possibly the heavy favorite 88 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: now in this race, and it possibly lines up what 89 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 2: horse racing fans, maybe you're on one side of the 90 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: spectrum or the other. You either really wanted this to 91 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 2: happen or you didn't. And what I'm referencing is the 92 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 2: possibility of a triple crown when they're not going to 93 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 2: be running the Belmont at the Belmont at a mile 94 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 2: and a half, will be run at Saratoga at a 95 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 2: mile and a quarter. So it could set up for 96 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 2: some really fun conversations in a few weeks. But before 97 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 2: we get into that, we've got a race to talk 98 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 2: about here in Baltimore on Saturday. Even with mut Out, 99 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 2: I think that it becomes a much more interesting race. Yes, 100 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: you're not going to get as much value, but there's 101 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 2: definitely more ways to go, and I think it opens 102 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 2: it up from a article and horizontal wagering perspective for 103 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 2: us better. 104 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: So let's dive in Glash. 105 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 3: Very good, as Sean said, right now at six to one, 106 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 3: catching Freedom on the morning line, tuscn Goal at eight 107 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 3: to one. Those are your first few horses as far 108 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 3: as the odds are concerned. 109 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: Shonzilla. 110 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 3: What horses do we want to toss? 111 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 2: The number one move got to he was on the 112 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,840 Speaker 2: also eligible list for the Kentucky Derby. He has thirteen 113 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 2: lifetime races, career best eighty seven buyer speed figure. Now, 114 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 2: the average winner of the Preetness has a one oh 115 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 2: one buyer, So you're looking for horses probably that are 116 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 2: already run in the nineties, who can improve off of 117 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: that and break one hundred on Freakness Day. I don't 118 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 2: really like Mugatu as a win contender. I don't really 119 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 2: like him underneath either, So I'm going to toss Mogatu 120 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 2: just given the fact that his lown win came over 121 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 2: a synthetic track and he's never run over ninety in 122 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 2: his career. The other two horses that I'm probably tossing 123 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 2: and Mike may have disacrimined me on one of these, 124 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 2: but the two d Way Lucas horses, the number seven 125 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 2: just steel and also the number six sees the Gray. 126 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 2: Six sees the Gray was in the Patda mile on 127 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 2: Derby Day. He was really close to a fast pace 128 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 2: or I'm sorry, he wasn't far off on speed figures, 129 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 2: just in terms of like his career form, but he 130 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 2: was cutting back off of a two turn race in 131 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 2: the Patda mile. Now he's extending back out to a 132 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 2: two turn race. So going from two turns to one 133 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 2: turn ran a good race. Extending back out to two 134 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 2: turn race, you would expect slight regression off of that. 135 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 2: I'm also really not sure where he fits in terms 136 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 2: of the pace of this race, which we can get 137 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: into a second, but also the number seven just deal. 138 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 2: He was a horse that Mike liked going into the Derby. 139 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 2: I did not like him considering seemed like he was 140 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 2: fading and training a little bit, and he runs all 141 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,239 Speaker 2: the time. This is a horse with twelve career lifetime 142 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 2: races doesn't really get a break very often. He was 143 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 2: pulled back in that Derby. That's the one thing keeping 144 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 2: me a little bit reserved about tossing him here completely. 145 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,559 Speaker 2: I don't know how hard he actually ran. He didn't 146 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 2: look like he had a lot in the tank going 147 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 2: into the Derby, but I don't really know if they 148 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 2: took a lot out of him either, since they eased 149 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: him back and he ended up finishing about seventeens. And 150 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: I don't really know how Hardy actually ran in that race. 151 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 2: So I do think d Wayne Lucas is entering him 152 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: here because he has the most career lifetime starters in 153 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 2: the Preakness. He hasn't won one since twenty thirteen, but 154 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 2: I think he's still just trying to find a way 155 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: to get one more Triple Crown under his belt before 156 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 2: he retires and has two options to enter here in 157 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 2: this race. Is going to end up doing so, but 158 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: I just didn't like the way Justine was training leading 159 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 2: up to the derby. I'm probably going to toss him 160 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 2: here try to beat both the Wayne Lucas horses and 161 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 2: then also the number one Magatu, which leaves us with 162 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 2: five potential horses left to choose from and mix around 163 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 2: in exotics. So my curious what you think about the one, 164 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 2: the six, and the seven. 165 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean, I will. 166 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 2: I'll back you up a little bit with some interesting 167 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 2: stats on the coach d Wayne Lucas. Over the last 168 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 2: five years, he's had one hundred and fifty one starters 169 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 2: that have run on between ten and seventeen days rest, 170 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 2: which both of these starters just steal and sees the. 171 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: Gray are coming off of two weeks rest. 172 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 2: He's only winning at eight percent with those one hundred 173 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 2: and fifty one starters on ten to seventeen days rest, 174 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: and his horses are oh for fifteen in the win 175 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 2: column and oh for fifteen in the money during that 176 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 2: short rest period integrated stakes race. So it doesn't pode 177 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: well for d Wayne Lucas when the stats do not 178 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 2: back them up. I completely agree with you, Sean. You 179 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 2: know he's he's a Hall of Famer. I would assume 180 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 2: he's trying to get just you know, another triple Crown 181 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: under his belt, triple Crown win under his belt. I'm 182 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: also tossing both sees, the Gray and just Steal, also 183 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 2: tossing the number one we got to as you mentioned. 184 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 2: And so to your point, it brings us down with 185 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 2: the scratch of Mooth, down to five horses, and I 186 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,719 Speaker 2: think it gets pretty interesting. I'd like to hear your 187 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 2: take because now with these five, with Mooth out, even 188 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 2: though you have Mystic Dan in there, it can it's 189 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 2: a pretty salty race. Now, so let's talk about the pace, 190 00:08:57,080 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 2: how we think this might play out. So Imagination is 191 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: going to send he is the other Bob Bafford horse 192 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 2: in this field. The four mouth who scratch were the 193 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 2: two bafforts, and they were likely to be the speed 194 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 2: horses we see very often, especially last year at National 195 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 2: Treasure other instances of the breakness Bob Bafford horses like 196 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 2: to be on the lead and the one running early. Now, 197 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: who is going to go with him? How fast is 198 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 2: this pace going to get? Just Steele likes to be 199 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: near the lead. We talked about the fact that we 200 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 2: expect him to fade at some point. Who are going 201 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 2: to be the other horses on the lead with him? 202 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 2: Since Mouth is not going to be there, you know, 203 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 2: sees the gray maybe in that second flight of horses. 204 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,839 Speaker 2: But I do think there's a really strong chance that Imagination, 205 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 2: without his stablemate Mouth and there, just gets on a 206 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: fairly easy lead and runs a merry go round around 207 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 2: this track and ends up taking it wire to wire. 208 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: So I don't want to be. 209 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 2: Against the Imagination, you know, when we're looking at the 210 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 2: pace of the race, when we're looking at the speed 211 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 2: figures of the race. He was the favorite in the 212 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 2: San Aneina Derby. He's been favored in a a lot 213 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 2: of his races. This is a horse that gets a 214 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 2: lot of respect in the betting markets. So I don't 215 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 2: really want imagination to beat me. I've gone into pick 216 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 2: five's before a pim will go trying to beat the 217 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 2: bob Afford horse, trying to beat the bob Afford speed horse. 218 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 2: Those days are behind me. Not interested in doing that anymore. 219 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 2: So imagination, I think is really interesting just from a 220 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 2: pace standpoint, but also what's the pace that missed Dan 221 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: and catching Freedom are going to be able to run into? Here? 222 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 2: You know, mistic Dan got a perfect rail trip in 223 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 2: the derby, but he also stayed pretty close to a 224 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 2: pace that fell apart, which is the most impressive aspect 225 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: of his derby and the more you watch it back, 226 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:40,319 Speaker 2: Yes he got a good trip, Yes he ran the 227 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 2: shortest distance around the track, but he was also sitting 228 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 2: around sixth for most of that race and then moved 229 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 2: up where all of the horses in front of him 230 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 2: ended up moving back. And that's what's most impressive about 231 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 2: Mystic Dan's derby and why I think he is a 232 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 2: deserving favorite in this race. The marks you can make 233 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 2: against him. Won it rain to all day Friday, and 234 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 2: that might have been a little bit softer than the 235 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 2: faster that it was listed as in my opinion, and 236 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 2: number two here he already had the second highest speed 237 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 2: figure in that Derby field going into it, basically match 238 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 2: that figure in the Derby, and is now coming into 239 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 2: this race with the fastest score. So that is the 240 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 2: multiple reasons why he's the favorite on paper. I just 241 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 2: don't know where he's going to get the pace to 242 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: run into here. But if he can be at that 243 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 2: second flight to horses again, he may not need a 244 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 2: ton of it. He's just going to need somebody to 245 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 2: tire out the leader for him. So I think the 246 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 2: pace scenario is very interesting, just because with Moot dropping out, 247 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 2: there's less pace pressure up front. I thought there was 248 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 2: a chance that the two Bafford horses could tire out 249 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 2: one another and then end up letting that second flight 250 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 2: come and pass them. Now, with Muth out, I think 251 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 2: Imagination has a much bigger chance, and I'm curious if 252 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 2: you see it the same way, just like muth is 253 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 2: scratch gives his stablemate a much bigger chance of winning 254 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 2: this race. 255 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree, Sean. 256 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 2: I think you know last year National Treasure, who I 257 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 2: loved in the Preakness, I think went off at four 258 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 2: to one as a winner. I think it's very similar 259 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 2: to imagination, and if you think about National Treasure, I 260 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 2: believe he was the seven horse last year. I think 261 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 2: so more towards the outside again, imagination all the way 262 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 2: to the outside post is going to be sent, is 263 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 2: going to get clear, and is going to be able 264 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 2: to set I would say, pretty reasonable fractions. You don't have, 265 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 2: as you mentioned, a ton of pace in here. He 266 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 2: finished a neck back in the Santa Anita Derby. It 267 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 2: was a really game race. When you go back and 268 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 2: you watch the replay of that Santa Anita Derby, Imagination 269 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,840 Speaker 2: on the far turn looked like he was starting to 270 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 2: move backwards and then he rebroke in the stretch when 271 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 2: Stronghold came up alongside and fought down to the wire. Now, 272 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: the only other question for me on Imagination is three 273 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 2: of his four second place finishes were by a neck. 274 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 2: So is this a horse that just doesn't like to win? 275 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 2: Does he have that fire grit determination when somebody, you know, 276 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 2: another horse goes eyeball to eyeball with him, is he 277 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 2: going to be able to finish the deal? Does he 278 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 2: have that closing kick? Look, the horse has done virtually 279 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 2: nothing wrong in his career. He's hit the board he's 280 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 2: finished first or second. Actually in all six starts, they 281 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 2: paid a million dollars for the horse. You have one 282 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 2: of the greatest riders in the world and Frankie Detria board. 283 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 2: I don't think that there's other pace in this race 284 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 2: to speak of. I think Imagination is going to be 285 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 2: out on the lead, Frankly, possibly alone and setting the fractions. 286 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 2: I agree just Steele will probably go with him, but 287 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 2: I'm just not entirely sure. And to your point, Sean, 288 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 2: you know Mystic Dan if you go back and look 289 00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 2: at the chart from the Derby at second call, Mystic 290 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 2: Dan was sitting six. If you look at the horses 291 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 2: that were sitting sixth or better at second call and 292 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 2: where they finished, I think the next best finisher was 293 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 2: like twelfth in the Derby, maybe fourteenth in the Derby. 294 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 2: So it speaks to Mystic Dan's running style. Could he 295 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 2: be more forwardly placed just based on the fact that 296 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,719 Speaker 2: we might not have as much pace in this race. Absolutely, 297 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 2: and I think that can prove to be very dangerous. 298 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 2: So I don't see a scenario in here where anybody 299 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 2: else goes with Imagination. Frankly, I think he'll be out 300 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 2: on the lead alone, and then you'll have some that'll 301 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 2: be sitting just off of him, just to his inside 302 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: tuskin gold Mystic Dan, which I think will create a 303 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 2: really interesting race to see what happens. 304 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: This podcast is presented by bet MGM. 305 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 3: Use bonus Code action when signing up to get up 306 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 3: to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your 307 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: first bet does not win. 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Okay, 313 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 3: with all this in mind, with horses that you guys 314 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 3: wanted to toss from the card and also some of 315 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 3: the pace projections, some favorite long shots Sean Zillo. 316 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, favorite long shots. 317 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 2: So I guess Imagination would be my favorite long shot 318 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 2: because he's not my top pick, but he's the horse 319 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 2: that I'm probably gonna key underneath, and I think he's 320 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 2: the horse likeliest to run in the money here. As 321 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 2: Mike said, he's never finished out of the EXACTA and 322 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 2: six lifetime starts. He does seem to have this thing 323 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 2: we're in the stretch on. It's almost like he's baiting 324 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 2: horses into running eye to eye with him, and then 325 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 2: he's like having fun, like pulling back or getting in front, 326 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 2: and then getting and letting the other horse go in front, 327 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 2: and then he gets in front again. It's almost like 328 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 2: he's playing with them, which is not what you want 329 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 2: to see obviously, But he's also extremely game, where like 330 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 2: he does keep up with horses when they pull ahead 331 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 2: of him. 332 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: So it's both a good and a bad thing. 333 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 2: But if you're in the stretch round and the fact 334 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 2: that he keeps winning or losing by a neck, that's 335 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 2: not what you want when you're picking an actual wing contender. 336 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: It's a horse is very likely to get beat and 337 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: finished second, but also a horse, given the pay scenario, 338 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 2: the fact that nobody's gonna challenge him, should have enough 339 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 2: in the tank to at least finish third. If he's 340 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 2: going to run all the way around the track and 341 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 2: nobody's actually going to challenge him. Maybe horses pass him 342 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 2: in the stretch, but I think Imagination is very likely 343 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 2: going to run in the money. Here. The one horse 344 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 2: that I like at odds who we didn't toss, who 345 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 2: Mike also didn't toss, is the number two Uncle Heavy 346 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 2: at twenty to one. You know, the speed scores don't 347 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 2: necessarily fit career high eighty four buyers speed figure, but 348 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 2: he has Irad Ortiz junior board, and I think just 349 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 2: the fact that Irad Ortiz picked up this mount is 350 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 2: enough to tell you that this horse is probably going 351 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 2: to out run. As odds a lot went against him 352 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 2: in the Wood Memorial. I think this horse is very underrated. 353 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 2: This is the furthest he'll have ever run in his career. 354 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 2: So I think there's a chance that Uncle Heavy clunks 355 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 2: up and takes third or fourth in this race. A 356 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 2: horse I'm definitely going to include underneath, and my SuperFect 357 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 2: is maybe in my trifect is as well, but Uncle 358 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 2: Heavy twenty to one the one long shot horse I 359 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 2: want to include on exotic tickets. 360 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 3: Do you echo those sentiments, Mike Conti? 361 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 2: I do you know? We talked about it with the 362 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 2: scratch of mooth, we're going to see odds change. The 363 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:00,760 Speaker 2: fact they have a Bafferd horse that seems to be 364 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: the speed horse. You know, I don't think that we're 365 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 2: going to get anywhere near six to one on imagination. 366 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 1: I think it's more likely as like. 367 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,880 Speaker 2: A I don't know, seven to two, three to one 368 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 2: type of horse. 369 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: Honestly, maybe even down to five to two. 370 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,439 Speaker 2: So when you start thinking about like where to extract value, 371 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,440 Speaker 2: I totally agree with Sean going towards the inside here 372 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 2: to Uncle Heavy. The horse is two for two on 373 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 2: an off track, and we're gonna have rain on Saturday. 374 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 2: There's a seventy to eighty percent chance of rain and 375 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 2: it looks like it's going to rain the majority of 376 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 2: the day, So we're going to have an off track, 377 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 2: or at least it seems like that based on the weather. 378 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 2: Right now. This horse has shown that, you know, he 379 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 2: relishes that two of his three wins coming in there 380 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 2: and you get one of the best in the world 381 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 2: in Irad. So you know, the horse has shown that 382 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 2: he can be closer to the pace than he was 383 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 2: in the Wood Memorial, and so if he can run back, 384 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 2: you know to what he did in the Withers being 385 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 2: only a length and a quarter back at first call. 386 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 2: It was a muddy track. You know, he closed really well, 387 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:06,919 Speaker 2: got up by a nose just in time. You give 388 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 2: him a little bit of extra distance, you know, can 389 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 2: he get that distance? 390 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 1: It does seem like it. 391 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 2: So you know at twenty to one, of course, with 392 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 2: the moot scratch, his odds will absolutely come down. He's 393 00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 2: still going to be one of, if not the longest 394 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 2: prices on the board. And that's where I'm going to 395 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 2: go for my long shot selection. 396 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 3: Okay, excellent, let's dive into some exotics here, Sean. So 397 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 3: how do you want to go about building these particular bets. 398 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, so my top pick is the number eight Tusking Gold, 399 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 2: and I think I'm going to try to get him 400 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 2: in the money, get imagination and the money, whether I'm 401 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 2: betting them in a straight exacta together, whether I'm EXACTA 402 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: boxing the two of them together. But Tuscan Gold basically 403 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: has followed and here's the argument for him. He's followed 404 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 2: the same path that Chad Brown took with cloud computing 405 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 2: and that he took with. 406 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: Early voting two years ago. 407 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,399 Speaker 2: And I was all over both of those horses, but 408 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 2: particularly early voting scored really big on Preakness A two 409 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 2: years ago, essentially singling early voting. All three of these 410 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 2: horses fourth career lifetime start, got in the money in 411 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 2: a Derby prep skip the Derby, and now are coming 412 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 2: in their fourth career lifetime start to Pimlico, where they're 413 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 2: going to and try to improve off of a buyer 414 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 2: score in the mid nineties. Get to one hundred and 415 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 2: win this race, and all three will have faced smaller 416 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,639 Speaker 2: fields with a vulnerable Derby favorite. And I think he 417 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: absolutely fits the profile. I mean, great pedigree, ninety five 418 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 2: buyer in his last race, and I was very impressed 419 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 2: by his Louisiana Derby where he finished third and ran 420 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 2: that ninety five speed score because very similar to Mystic Dan. 421 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 2: In that race, all of the leaders fell off. He 422 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,199 Speaker 2: was the only one who stayed up and ended up 423 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 2: finishing strong. And then Honor Marine Catching Freedom went very 424 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 2: wide on the far turn, came from the back of 425 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 2: the pack, and then ran down the center of the 426 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,119 Speaker 2: race course and ended up finishing one to two. But 427 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 2: Tusking Gold was the only horse basically in the inside 428 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: fighting with all the other horses and he ended up 429 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 2: moving forward everybody else fell back, So I thought visually 430 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 2: it was a very impressive race. And then you add 431 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 2: in the fact that he's likely to improve off of 432 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 2: that race, potentially get a one hundred speed score here. 433 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 2: Chad Brown excellent at improving his horses, but particularly after 434 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 2: giving them some time off and pointing for a particular race. 435 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 2: So a lot of reasons why I like Tusking Gold 436 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,959 Speaker 2: in here, especially given the price, the fact that he's 437 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 2: eight to one. I was going to bet him against 438 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 2: Mouth just because he was only a few points behind 439 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,959 Speaker 2: Mouth on speed scores, and the odds were you know, 440 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 2: five times six times as big. So definitely like the 441 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 2: number eight Tusking Gold on top, I'm going to use 442 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 2: the number nine imagination. I'm going to use the number 443 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 2: five Mystic Dan. That would probably be my exact box. 444 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 2: If I were playing an exact a box, I'm more 445 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 2: likely going to bet and exact a key where I'm 446 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: keing Tusk and Gold and then trying to get imagination 447 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 2: or maybe my long shot price. You know, Uncle Heavy. 448 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 2: I don't think he can actually run second, But if 449 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 2: I was looking for a way to find big value 450 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 2: on this race, that would be the two to pair together. 451 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 2: But yeah, if you're expanding out, you know from exactas. 452 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 2: So my exact I'm going to say is I'm gonna 453 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,719 Speaker 2: go with eight to nine Tusk and Gold imagination, and 454 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 2: then once I'm expanding out to trifecta's, I think that's 455 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 2: where you can comfortably include Mystic Dan without taking too 456 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 2: much value out of your tickets. So I'm going to 457 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,959 Speaker 2: make sure I have Mystic Dan in there in my trifecta's, 458 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 2: especially in the second spot, but I'm going to probably 459 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 2: try to beat him in the exact So for my trifecta, 460 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 2: I'm going to go eight, nine to five, and then 461 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 2: we're going to also mix in some number two Uncle 462 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,920 Speaker 2: Heavy and number three Catching Freedom on those tickets as well. 463 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 3: Okay, very good, Mike Conti's similarities differences, what's your approach? 464 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm with Sean. The eight tusc in 465 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,199 Speaker 2: Gold is also my top pick in here. He is 466 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 2: the least experienced horse in the race. But if you 467 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 2: go back and you watch that Louisiana Derby race, you 468 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 2: could make arguments that he didn't have the cleanest of trips. 469 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 2: He was four wide going into the first turn, and 470 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 2: as he started making his move on the far turn, 471 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 2: he gets surrounded by horses, which you never want to 472 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,719 Speaker 2: see your horse in between horses, right, they're pack animals. 473 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 2: They don't like that they end up seeing like others 474 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 2: going by them. You know, it's not a comfortable position 475 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 2: for them to be in. And then you look at 476 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:26,239 Speaker 2: it and he was forced to mildly check at the 477 00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 2: top of the stretch because then he was in behind 478 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 2: some of those pace horses in front of him. He 479 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,640 Speaker 2: was from there able to regain his momentum and finished 480 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 2: with some good interest. But as Sean mentioned the closers 481 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 2: in catching Freedom and Honor, Marie already had gotten the 482 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 2: jump on him. I think, as we discussed before, with 483 00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 2: the lack of pace with Muth now out, Tuscan Gold 484 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 2: will sit, you know, just off of imagination in here 485 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 2: and ready to pounce. Chad's won it twice, Bafford's won 486 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,000 Speaker 2: this one, you know, eight times. 487 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 1: Similar to Sean, from. 488 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 2: A multi race perspective, I'm not gonna let mystic Dan 489 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,479 Speaker 2: beat me. But from a vertical exotic perspective, I'm going 490 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 2: to be betting a straight exacta where I'm trying to 491 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 2: extract value of no pun intended. I'm going to play 492 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 2: eight over nine straight, and then for my trifecta, I 493 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:18,719 Speaker 2: will play eight over nine over two three five. So 494 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 2: that'll be Tuscan Gold over Imagination over Uncle Heavy Catching 495 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 2: Freedom and Mystic Dan in the third spot of my trifecta. 496 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 3: All right, let's dive into the weeds a bit here. 497 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,640 Speaker 3: Saturday Undercard bets, Sean Zillo, any thoughts here? 498 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,400 Speaker 2: No, oh, Mike Tanzi. I do just want to mention 499 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 2: Raise eleven the Turf Sprint. I love turf sprint races. 500 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 2: They're absolute chaos, especially five furlong turt sprint races. Like 501 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 2: if you've never watched horse racing, or if you just 502 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 2: want to watch a race it's not a triple Crown race, 503 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 2: just to see what some of these other races look like, 504 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 2: check out Raise eleven Turf Sprint because it's going to 505 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,399 Speaker 2: be nuts, it's going to be fast, it's going to 506 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 2: be horses running as quickly as they can. But you 507 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 2: also have the defending champion, the number twelve beer Can Man. 508 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 2: And if you don't have beer Canman on your tickets, 509 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 2: we're not friends. So that's my entire thoughts on Saturday's undercard. 510 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 2: Beer Canman won this race last year. It's a very 511 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 2: competitive race. You want horses who are going to be 512 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 2: near the front because they happen so quickly. You know 513 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 2: they're over so quickly. But beer Can Man will probably 514 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 2: be one of my key horses in terms of narrowing 515 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 2: down this field. And just have to shout him out 516 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 2: because the name is so incredible. Do you have any 517 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 2: thoughts on that, Mike, It's actually really funny. One is 518 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 2: that of the shorter prices of the long shots that 519 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 2: I like on the day as a best bet, beer 520 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 2: Can Man is actually my best bet of the day 521 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,160 Speaker 2: on Saturday at five to two. 522 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: Now, if you look. 523 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 2: At beer Canman really quick, he's the class of the race. 524 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 2: And they did coming into this race last year. As 525 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 2: Sean mentioned, he won this exact race last year, and 526 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,360 Speaker 2: if you look at the pattern that they took, they 527 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 2: raced a five and a half furlong race at Kingland 528 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 2: in April to get him prepped for this race last year, 529 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 2: and he didn't really fire. He probably needed the race 530 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 2: off the bench. Well, guess what they did coming into 531 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,479 Speaker 2: this year. They ran him at five and a half 532 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 2: on the turf at Kingland. He didn't really fire. If 533 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 2: he's a horse that follows the pattern of what we've seen, 534 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,439 Speaker 2: he is very live in here. The biggest concern is 535 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 2: he threw up one of the worst buyer speed figures 536 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 2: that he's thrown up in the last four years in 537 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 2: that start at Keenland, so there's a little bit of 538 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 2: pause for concern there. But again all the way to 539 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 2: the outside he's shown versatility. He can close from off 540 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 2: the pace, he can be much closer. Flavian Pratt knows 541 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 2: this horse really well, has ridden him to multiple victories 542 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,320 Speaker 2: in his career. So one of my best bets of 543 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,360 Speaker 2: the day, the long shot best bet of the day 544 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,479 Speaker 2: for me. We're going to go to race seven and 545 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 2: as Sean mentioned, it's another turf race. In my opinion, 546 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 2: turf racing is the most exciting type of racing in 547 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 2: the sport just because you have horses that are, you know, closing. 548 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,679 Speaker 2: It's always close, coming down to it. My best bet 549 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 2: in race seven is going to be number six, five Towns. 550 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: This is a local horse who. 551 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:20,120 Speaker 2: Ran last in a non graded stakes event at Laurel Park. 552 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,439 Speaker 2: You might say, okay, Mike, who was five Towns facing. 553 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 2: It's not about who he was facing. It's about the 554 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,919 Speaker 2: fact that one grand motion spots his horses where he 555 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 2: believes that they have the best chance of winning. And two, 556 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 2: when you go back and watch that race, five Towns 557 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 2: was the second choice when the gates opened. He sat 558 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 2: behind this wall of horses coming out of the turn, 559 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 2: has to swing all the way to the outside, and 560 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 2: when he finds his stride, it's like this horse is 561 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 2: shot out of a cannon. He's six to one on 562 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,159 Speaker 2: the morning line, and I think the fact that you know, 563 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 2: it's a relatively deep field. There's nine horses listed. Two 564 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 2: of them remain track only, so if this race does 565 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 2: stay on the turf, you're only going to be looking 566 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 2: at a seven horse field. But you have a heavy 567 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 2: morning line favorite in fluffy socks. So I don't expect 568 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 2: five Towns odds to come much below that six to one. 569 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,119 Speaker 2: Maybe he comes down to ninth, or she, excuse me, 570 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,200 Speaker 2: comes down to nine to two or so, but still 571 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: there's plenty of value for her. So that's going to 572 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 2: be you know, my best bet is a long shot 573 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 2: on the undercard on Saturday, all. 574 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 3: Right, excellent, and then to take us home here your 575 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 3: breakdown of Friday's card, Mike Conti and the best butt you've. 576 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: Got for Friday. 577 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I mean we've got the Black Eyed Susan 578 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,960 Speaker 2: on Friday. You know, you look at this race in 579 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 2: comparison to the Kentucky Oaks, and honestly, it's it's just 580 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 2: it's extremely underwhelming. Is the most polite way that I 581 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 2: could put it. I think that you know, some of 582 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,400 Speaker 2: the horses towards the outside recharge. 583 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 1: She's interesting. 584 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,879 Speaker 2: She's going to be sent from you know, the Get 585 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 2: Go number five Gun Song at nine to two is 586 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 2: going to be more forwardly placed. They send the seven 587 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 2: corposo from Santa Anita, They ship her across the country, 588 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 2: so they obviously think very highly of her. I just 589 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 2: don't know who she I mean, she only has one 590 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 2: career win, only three career starts. She ran third in 591 00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:16,760 Speaker 2: the sant Anita Oaks, which you're like, oh, third, that's 592 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 2: not so bad. Well, it was only a five horse 593 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 2: field and she finished eight lengths behind the eventual winner. 594 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 2: So I just don't know who she's faced and how 595 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 2: good she is. Honestly, it's not a race that I'm 596 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 2: like super excited to bet. I went and said recharge 597 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 2: gun song, and then as a long shot, I went 598 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 2: towards the inside number two ringy dinghy, who doesn't want 599 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,200 Speaker 2: to bet on a horse with a fun rhyming name 600 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 2: like that? But other than that, on the day for Friday, 601 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 2: I think where you have a free square in the 602 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 2: betting from a multi race exotics bet is the race 603 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 2: right before the Black Eyed Susan race twelve. I'm not 604 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 2: going out on any limb here by any imagination glash, 605 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 2: but the number two kings barns in my opinion seven 606 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 2: to five, but becomes a free square in a multi 607 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 2: race wager. I just don't think that a there's any 608 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 2: other pacin here. I think he's gonna he has a 609 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,160 Speaker 2: very good chance of taking them gate to wire. And 610 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 2: he just seems as though, you know, since he's turned four, 611 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 2: he's really turned a corner. Looks extremely dangerous in here. 612 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 2: One that I will be singling in my multi race 613 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 2: wagers on Friday. You may close four to five too, right, Oh, 614 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 2: without a doubt, he's going to be less than even money. 615 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 1: Zarrilla. 616 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 3: This has vibes of like UFC cards, where you're like, 617 00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 3: you know, I'm interested in watching, but the betting the 618 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 3: card is just under underwhelming, was the kind of way 619 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:38,200 Speaker 3: might put it. 620 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately, the mooth scratch really changes things. You know, 621 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 2: my EXACTA was going to or my exact A key 622 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 2: was going to be the eight Tusken Gold on top 623 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 2: of the nine imagination of the five Mystic Dan, and 624 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:51,959 Speaker 2: that would have been trying to beat the favorite. But 625 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 2: now with Mooth scratched, there's really no value in that ticket. 626 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 2: You know, now you're putting basically the three of the 627 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 2: top betting choices on a ticket to get like that 628 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 2: catching Freedom, I guess is the one you're leaving out there. 629 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 2: But there's really not nearly as much value with mouth 630 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 2: out of that out of the race on that ticket 631 00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 2: as there would have been otherwise. So now I'm probably narrowing, 632 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 2: you know, to more of a cold Exact that eight 633 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 2: nine Cold Exact or maybe all exact A box the 634 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 2: eight in the nine. But essentially, like moose scratching, I 635 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 2: now have to try to beat Mystic Dan in the exotics, 636 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 2: which isn't something I necessarily wanted to do. And as 637 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 2: Conti talked about, it's very likely to rain this weekend. 638 00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 2: Mystic Dan has run his best race in the rain 639 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 2: and then the day after it rained at Kentucky Down 640 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,640 Speaker 2: or in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Down. 641 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 1: So if it. 642 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,040 Speaker 2: Rains, you know it's going to be tough to go 643 00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 2: against Mystic Dan and Tusking Gold is never run on 644 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 2: a wet track, so that that just further complicates things. 645 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 2: So keep an eye on the weather and my opinion 646 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 2: may change if it does rain. I mean, I think 647 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 2: with Mystic Dan it is it is such a key 648 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,320 Speaker 2: factor with the way he's run on softer ground that 649 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 2: on mud versus is not on mud really changes things. 650 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 2: And I don't know, we didn't we didn't discuss a kanti, 651 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 2: But what are your thoughts on him potentially getting over 652 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 2: to the rail from the five ball? Does that concern 653 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 2: you at all? No, I'm not concerned about that. I 654 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 2: don't think there's enough speed to his inside, as we've 655 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 2: talked about. I think the majority of the speed is 656 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 2: going to come from the outside. And I think he's proven. 657 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, he had a dream trip because he 658 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 2: had the three hole in the Derby, but I'm not concerned. 659 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 2: He's been a horse that has shown, you know, he 660 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 2: can kind of navigate his way through of where he 661 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 2: needs to be obviously, Jockie, Brian Hernandez Junior loves the rail. 662 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,080 Speaker 2: If you go back and you watch you know three 663 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 2: back his start at Oaklawn, I mean also a rail 664 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 2: ride trip, right, So Brian wants to hug the rail, 665 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 2: wants to have less ground. I think I don't think 666 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 2: that'll have a problem, you know, sitting that rail trip 667 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 2: in here either, and the speeds to his outside, so 668 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 2: we should be able to get to his spot exactly. 669 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 1: Yeah. 670 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, So, I mean, I just like the rain moves 671 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 2: missed it dan up and I don't I don't want 672 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 2: to let him beat me, especially multi race tickets, but 673 00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 2: in terms of finding value for the exact I think 674 00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 2: you do have to try to beat him. 675 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 3: Hey, folks, keep an eye on the Action Network app 676 00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot com for the latest Shonzarella Mike Conti providing 677 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 3: horse racing best bets here for Preakness and also their 678 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 3: analysis you can find in the app, and also again 679 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 3: actionnetwork dot Com that concludes our Preakness betting preview and 680 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 3: best Bets episode. Here are the Action Network podcast presented 681 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 3: by BETMGM for Mike Contishonzarello Brending last sheen, Best of 682 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 3: Luck News, Weather, keep an eye on it, and Best 683 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 3: of Luck. 684 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. 685 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 686 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 687 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler