1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:23,319 Speaker 2: Welcome back into the Action Network Podcast or UFC Fight 3 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 2: Night two six betting preview. 4 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 3: Brendan Glasshe and your host joined by Action Network Senior 5 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 3: writer Sean Zarillo, also former professional MMA fighter MMA analyst 6 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 3: Billy Ward UFC Fight Night Looking forward to this one. 7 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 3: We've got the main event Vieira versus Home. Eleven fights total, 8 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 3: five on the main card, six prelim fights. We'll get 9 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 3: to the fight of the night that Billy and Sewn 10 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 3: are both eyeing their picks. Of course, underdog plays, favorite props, 11 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 3: a look at the daily fantasy angle from Billy and 12 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 3: of course before we wrap up the show Best Bets. 13 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 3: Main event Vieira Home, Sorillo, what's your your read here 14 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 3: as we look at the main event skill for skill. 15 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 4: I think Holly Home as Viera covered pretty much everywhere 16 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 4: here except maybe one aspect. So I'll give you the 17 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 4: concerns that I have on either side of his fight. 18 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 4: On the Holly Home side, she's ten years old or 19 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 4: forty years old coming into this fight, still looks in 20 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 4: excellent shape. We haven't seen her a bit, though, I 21 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 4: believe she last fought in October twenty twenty, when there's 22 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 4: at least an eight year age gap between UFC fighters. 23 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:27,759 Speaker 5: This goes back thirteen years. 24 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 4: The younger fighter wins sixty seven percent of the time 25 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 4: at average odds closer to fifty seven percent, So generally speaking, 26 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 4: the younger fighter tends to be underrated, and it's by 27 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 4: about ten percent in the markets, which is a pretty 28 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 4: significant gap. Additionally, I'm not sure how many times she 29 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 4: can do it. But if Viera is able to get 30 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 4: Home down and get on top of her, I don't 31 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 4: know if Home is going to be. 32 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 5: Able to get back up. 33 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 4: Her top pressure is pretty phenomenal. She's actually lost the 34 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 4: fight before Vieira where she had I believe twelve minutes 35 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 4: of top control because she barely threw any strikes. But 36 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 4: she's very good at keeping pazzition once she gets it, 37 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 4: and her top pressure is very strong, very strong girl. 38 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 4: She has trouble making the one hundred and thirty five 39 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 4: pounds limits sometimes, and we'll see how she weighs on 40 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 4: on the scales today, and that would be my primary 41 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 4: concern on her side, is if she's going to be 42 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 4: able to go the full twenty five minutes she did 43 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 4: in her last fight. But we've seen her gas out 44 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 4: in the past. That's why she ended up holding on 45 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 4: to Yana Kunitskaya for that long period of their fight 46 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 4: ended up losing from top position because she was completely 47 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 4: gassed out. 48 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,079 Speaker 5: She was able to get the takedown, but then she 49 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 5: couldn't do anything with it. 50 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 4: So I'm not sure if she's going to be able 51 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 4: to survive the full twenty five minutes, especially at the 52 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 4: pace that Home keeps, especially if she's shooting multiple takedowns 53 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 4: and is unable to get Home to the ground. Historically 54 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 4: she gets one point seventy two takedowns per fifteen minutes, 55 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 4: forty six percent accuracy. Home is seventy six percent takedown defense. 56 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,239 Speaker 4: Now Home is leveled up for grappling over time. She's 57 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 4: even beaten other grapplers at their own game. Held seven 58 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 4: minutes of cage control against Ralkel Pennington. That's normally what 59 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 4: Pennington does other fighters. Home, a former professional boxer, has 60 00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 4: rounded out her skills over time, probably one of the 61 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 4: rare MMAS fighters who's continually making improvements in her late 62 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 4: thirties into her early forties. So the cardio major concern 63 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 4: on the VIA side, the potential top control is the 64 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 4: concern on the Home side. If he's able to get 65 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:14,400 Speaker 4: top position, I don't know if she can get it 66 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 4: three times, If she can get her down three times, 67 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 4: I think she definitely is a path to winning this fight, 68 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,239 Speaker 4: winning a boring, grinding style of fight. But that said, 69 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 4: skill for skill, I think Home has covered in most spots. 70 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 4: I think the money line is about right. Tough time 71 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 4: playing props on this fight. The one area I did 72 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 4: look Holme's late props round four twenty five hundred, round 73 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 4: five plus three thousand, both of those available at MGM 74 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 4: might end up sprinkling those in the event that Veria 75 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 4: Viea gets a pace put on her gases out down 76 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 4: the stretch and maybe Home is able to put her away. 77 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 4: Hasn't put somebody away in the late rounds since back then, 78 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 4: vict I believe, so It's been a while, but Home 79 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 4: definitely has a path to have finished later in this 80 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 4: fight as Vera tires out. 81 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm definitely looking at the age as the big 82 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 6: factor in this one, and Tean's pointed out she has 83 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 6: continued to improve well into her late thirties, even though 84 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 6: she was older, she was relatively new to the sport 85 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 6: in that time period. It's not like she was, you know, 86 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 6: had been doing it for fifteen years and peaked out. 87 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 3: It is just really hard to see. 88 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 6: You know, a thirty year old fighter could still be 89 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 6: getting a lot better. You'd have to imagine Holly at 90 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 6: forty years old, almost a year and a half or 91 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 6: a little over a year and a half off since 92 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 6: her last fight. That's enough when you're getting over plus 93 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 6: two hundred on Viera. For me, it's not my favorite 94 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 6: fight to bat. I don't like super love this one. 95 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 6: You can get her highest plus two tenant Caesars right now, 96 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 6: and given the ten year age gap, given the trajectories 97 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 6: of their career, right now, that's more than enough for 98 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 6: me to lay a little bit on Viera. 99 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 3: Let's move on to our favorite underdog play, Sean Zarillo. 100 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 4: You got yeah, don't have a lot of money lines 101 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 4: on this card, But if there is one dog that 102 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 4: I'm interested in dabbling with, it might be Eric Anders. 103 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 5: Your boy. 104 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 4: All of his fights tend to be close, whether he's 105 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 4: a favorite, whether he's an underdog, they all tend to 106 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 4: be competitive, and I have a tough time seeing Park 107 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 4: pulling away to a significant degree unless he's able to 108 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 4: grapple Anders here, that's very difficult to do. Andrew's a 109 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 4: very stocky guy, difficult to take career takedown to de 110 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 4: seventy five percent, so he is difficult to put on 111 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 4: his back, and even once he put him on his back, 112 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 4: he's actually pretty strong and is able to get back 113 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 4: up pretty frequently. He's the longer fighter. He's the taller fighter, 114 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 4: two inches of both height and reach. He has the 115 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 4: power advantage. I expect Park to land more shots, ship 116 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 4: away at him, land more volume, maybe even get some 117 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 4: cage control or to take him down. That said, Anders 118 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 4: might be landing the more significant strikes, and we've seen 119 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 4: a lot of these close split decisions come down to 120 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 4: the judge's deciding volume against power. Andrews has more power. 121 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 4: I understand why he's an underdog because Park is probably 122 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 4: going to put a pace on him. 123 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 5: We also have Southpop. 124 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 4: Versus Orthodox here, though, so I don't know if Park 125 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 4: is going to be able to kick his leg. That 126 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 4: frequently creates the dynamics of the matchup that are definitely 127 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 4: going to make it a bit closer than it would 128 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 4: appear in the metrics. So Anders the power advantage. Understand 129 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 4: why he's the underdog, but I think he can swing 130 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 4: a close split decision on power optics or maybe even 131 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:55,919 Speaker 4: knock out the Iron Turtle, which has seemed impossible to 132 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 4: do before. But he did get knocked out in his 133 00:05:57,680 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 4: last fight, getting a bit reckless against Gregory. 134 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 3: Guess when you look on the card, Billy looking for 135 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 3: an underdog play, the middle weight bout is somewhere you're heading. 136 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,119 Speaker 6: Uh No, I'm going later on this one. I'm looking 137 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 6: at Chase Hooper. He's as high as about plus one 138 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 6: fifty five. You can get it there a few different sites. 139 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 6: And this is another age play, dude to greet. You know, 140 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 6: Chase is only twenty two. He's been in the UF 141 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 6: seasonce who was nineteen. It's pretty reasonable to think that 142 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 6: not only is he getting better, but he's getting physically 143 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 6: more mature. We've kind of seen him get pushed around 144 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 6: a little bit, but when you're nineteen fighting, you know, 145 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 6: grown man Alex Casarius or whoever he's fighting, that's understandable. 146 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,719 Speaker 6: I think he's going to be continuing to get better. 147 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 6: He's fighting Felipe Khlaris, who's actually coming up a weight 148 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 6: class for this one. Clarius bounced around between thirty five 149 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 6: and forty five, both Claire's being at the higher. 150 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:44,479 Speaker 5: End of his range. 151 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 6: I don't think he's the bigger, stronger guy than Hooper, 152 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 6: and Hooper obviously just has so much grappling upside. You know, 153 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 6: He's been the ace grapplers since he's eleven years old 154 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 6: or whatever it is, and Claris likes to grapple too. 155 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 6: He could very well shoot in on Hooper and make 156 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 6: this the kind of fight that Hooper does well in. 157 00:06:58,040 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 6: So I think it's a really good matchup for him, 158 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 6: And I'm also just betting a little bit on the 159 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 6: kid who's still not even twenty three years old, continuing 160 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 6: to get better, continuing to physically mature, continuing to look 161 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 6: like he belongs here. 162 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 4: Any thoughts on that one's rollo, So Chase Hooper is 163 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 4: a bit of a string bean, very very long and lanky, 164 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 4: tough to determine how much he's going to be able 165 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 4: to improve his striking. He's been working with Steven Wonderbroy Thompson, 166 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 4: which is a bit interesting. I'd love to see him 167 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 4: come out in a karate stance and throw some different techniques. 168 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 5: That'd be fun. 169 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:31,600 Speaker 4: But yeah, I have a tough time betting this fight. 170 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 4: Both guys have been untrustworthy. Hooper very much struggles to 171 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 4: get guys to the ground. That said Kolaris is willing 172 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 4: to initiate grappling exchange is more often than that. So 173 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 4: it's very possible that Kolaris just fights a very poor 174 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 4: game plan and goes right into what Hooper wants to do. 175 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 4: Don't really see either guy getting finished. I think maybe 176 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 4: it goes to the decision. That is where I'd be looking. 177 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 3: To move on to the fight of the night that 178 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: Billy and Sean are both eyeing. We have Michelle Demalador, 179 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 3: Pereira taken on Santiago, the Argentine Dagger Pons and Ebo 180 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 3: Pons in Ebo. I was practicing that before we got 181 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 3: started today. Billy, we'll go to you first. You like 182 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 3: Pereira coming out of here on top. I do. 183 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 6: And the line's starting to get away from us a 184 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 6: little bit because I think he was. I think it 185 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 6: was pretty much a pick him early in the week, 186 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 6: but we're now seeing about minus one twenty five is 187 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 6: the best line on Pejea. But he's on a four 188 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 6: fight winning streak. He's fought increasingly difficult competition in each 189 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 6: of those fights, and Panzinibio seems to be, if anything, 190 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 6: trending the other direction. He's lost too out of his 191 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 6: last three following the long win streak. 192 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 5: But the thing that really. 193 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 6: Impresses me with Peya is he does all these wild strikes. 194 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 6: He's jumping off the cage, he's doing backflips, he's doing 195 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 6: flying these but he's won pretty much every third round 196 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 6: he's seen. If you check the judge's scorecard, he doesn't 197 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 6: seem to tire out. He seems to be able to 198 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 6: sustain that over fifteen minutes. You know, if he gets 199 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 6: to the point where he's main eventing and fighting twenty 200 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 6: five minutes, that might be a question. But for a 201 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 6: fifteen minute fight, he's also got all of the grappling upside. 202 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 6: He'll probably put Tonzanabio's back at least a couple times, 203 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 6: and his used out to steal rounds in the past. 204 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 6: So if this one goes to a decision and the 205 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 6: striking is close, and one guy's got the control time 206 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 6: in the takedowns, you would hope, though we haven't seen 207 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 6: it consistently from the judges, that the guy I get 208 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 6: in the takedown the control time would be the winner. 209 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,439 Speaker 6: So I like him at minus one twenty five. I 210 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 6: wouldn't go much past minus one thirty five or so. 211 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 6: So if you guys are listening to this now, hurry 212 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 6: up and get those bets in before it gets even 213 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 6: farther away. 214 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 3: How about you, Shoon Zarillo, How do you look at 215 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 3: this fight? Pereira v. Punts and Ebo. 216 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, so Ponzi's coming back here in his late thirties. 217 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 4: He had a long wayoff between November twenty eighteen and 218 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 4: January of twenty twenty one because he had a staff 219 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 4: infection that he had some COVID issues. So he returned 220 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 4: a bit of a lesser fighter than what he was previously. 221 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 4: Knocked out almost immediately by the Leach competitive fight with 222 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 4: Miguel Baza. He was losing that fight though, getting his 223 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 4: leg absolutely chewed up, until he decided to start walking 224 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 4: through those leg kicks and then just throwing ones. At 225 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 4: two's at Baiaza down the Stretch, split decision with Jeff Neil, 226 00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 4: very competitive there as well. 227 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,599 Speaker 5: He just to have lost a little bit relative to 228 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 5: what he was previously. He's still ranked welterweight. 229 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 4: I still think he's a good fighter, but it's tough 230 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 4: to imagine him having significant upside here against the fighter 231 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 4: like Baheer, who seems particularly durable. And I don't necessarily 232 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 4: give Ponzanibbio any grappling upside either. If anything, I would 233 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 4: give all the grappling side. It probably to Michelle, So 234 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 4: Michelle has a bigger upside to look like a bigger 235 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 4: favorite in my opinion. Definitely has the finishing upside too. 236 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 4: I see this being a pretty close decision if it 237 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 4: does go the full fifteen minutes. Ponzinibio probably more volume, 238 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 4: Pehea more power. He's the bigger man as well, prefer 239 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 4: Mechelle chin if they get into a brawl. That's why 240 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 4: I said I give him more finishing upside. I think 241 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 4: he's just the faster man at this point, but Ponzanibio 242 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,439 Speaker 4: is the more technical striker, mayland more volume. Michelle used 243 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 4: to be a bit of a berserker. Now he's much 244 00:10:48,520 --> 00:10:50,839 Speaker 4: more reserved, tends to pick his spots a little bit more. 245 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 4: He's going to try to counter while Ponzanibio is coming 246 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 4: in and being a bit more aggressive. So definitely see 247 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 4: this as a very exciting fight for a lower end 248 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 4: welterweight ranks. 249 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 5: Spot. 250 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 4: I projected it to go the distance closer to minus 251 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 4: two hundred. You can get minus one fifty five out 252 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 4: there at Caesar's. That's where I probably end up putting 253 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 4: my money on the fight to go to a decision, 254 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,319 Speaker 4: but maybe a very high volume, a high paced decision 255 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 4: where either a guy gets hurt at various points. 256 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 5: I do think both get to the final bell. 257 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 3: Looking forward to the striking element in this fight too. 258 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 3: Some similarities. Yep, no question should be good. So let's 259 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 3: move on to our favorite props. And of course, as 260 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:30,599 Speaker 3: we try to at least they try to remember to 261 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 3: say in every episode, you know, shop those lines everybody, 262 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 3: and like Billy said, get on right when the podcast 263 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 3: comes out, hop on this stuff because by the time 264 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 3: Saturday comes everything changes or it could change. Favorite prop, Billy, 265 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 3: what do you like? 266 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 5: Yeah? 267 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 6: I hate to do this to Sean because this is 268 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 6: like his favorite, most exciting fight ever. But I'm actually 269 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 6: looking at the Park Reporter versus Joltonham made to fight. 270 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 6: So for everyone who's not aware not been finding it, 271 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 6: Almada was originally sat to fight Max Chrish and at 272 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 6: two five on this card, something happened with Chrish and 273 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 6: he dropped out Almida is this extremely stretted Jack two 274 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 6: fiver stepping up to fight the biggest sloppiest heavyweight in 275 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 6: the UFC and Park Reporter. So you know, Amida is 276 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 6: a huge favorite. He's expected to just run right through him. 277 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 6: But if he comes in looking kind of heavier, looking 278 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 6: kind of sloppy himself, I could see this turning into 279 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 6: a sloppy heavyweight fight like we talked about. 280 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 2: You know, we saw with. 281 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 6: William Knight when he came in at heavyweight and was 282 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 6: about thirty pounds over his usual fighting weight. It's hard 283 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 6: to keep the cardio up when all of a sudden 284 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 6: you weigh thirty pounds more than you're used to weigh, right, 285 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 6: So that makes it a lot harder if he doesn't 286 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 6: get him out of there right away, and you can 287 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,160 Speaker 6: get this one to go to the distance at plus 288 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 6: three hundred on FanDuel, I think that's. 289 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 5: A really, really good bet. 290 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 6: I could see Porter also just kind of hanging on 291 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 6: as long as he can and just trying to push 292 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 6: him up against the faith cage and make this a 293 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 6: slow fight. But this is one I really do want 294 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 6: to see the weigh in results, because if Almada comes 295 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,559 Speaker 6: in at two twenty and still looks shredded. He'll probably 296 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 6: have the juice to just run through Porter. But if 297 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,599 Speaker 6: he comes in looking a little sloppy, looking like he 298 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 6: might tire out, you know, north of twenty five two thirty, 299 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 6: he's still going to be giving up forty pounds, but 300 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 6: he's also going to be a lot heavier and slower 301 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 6: than he's used to being. So yeah, watch the weigands 302 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:02,439 Speaker 6: on this one. I just checked it as all so 303 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 6: they haven't came in when we're recording this, but that's 304 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 6: where I'm looking. 305 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 3: Sean z Rolo favorite prop. 306 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,199 Speaker 4: I got to comment on this fight first. It is 307 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 4: like the Giga Chad meme fighting the Sad Mister Incredible meme. 308 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,199 Speaker 4: I mean, these these two guys are just diametrically opposite physiques. 309 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 4: It's absolutely beautiful. I do agree with Billy. I think 310 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 4: if this gets out of the first round, it actually 311 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 4: can go the full fifteen minutes. I think either Almeida 312 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 4: runs through him rather quickly or we get an extended, 313 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 4: sloppy fight. But it is just a hilarious physique matchup. 314 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,199 Speaker 4: I'm definitely to look forward to watching this one. My 315 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 4: two favorite props there, neither of them are particular long shots, 316 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 4: but I do view them as basically the same. Bet 317 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 4: Joseph ugly Man, Holmes Ugly Joe Holmes amazing nickname plus 318 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 4: one hundred twin inside the distance at BET MGM, and 319 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 4: then also Cheety Bang Bang and Jikwani great nickname as well, 320 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 4: also plus one hundred twin inside the distance at MGM. 321 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 4: I projected both of these props around fifty six percent, 322 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 4: around seventy percent win probability for either fighter, around eighty 323 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 4: percent inside the distance for either man. So that's how 324 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 4: you get to your fifty six percent number getting both 325 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 4: of them at plus money. Holmes is fighting a guy 326 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 4: who's coming back Allen I'm and dabas K who is 327 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 4: coming back from a three year layoff, has not shown 328 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 4: more than about five minutes a party in the past 329 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 4: and kind of a weak chin as well. And then 330 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 4: on the other side of Cheety is upon a dusk 331 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 4: go Chadorovich karate style fighter, leaves his hands low, chin 332 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 4: way up in the air, definitely open to be hit 333 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: all day. 334 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 5: Cheety a very very dangerous striker. 335 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 4: I think Dusco needs to grapple, just push him up 336 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 4: the cage in order to avoid getting knocked out let 337 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 4: alone winning this fight. So like both of those fighters 338 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 4: who went inside the distance, betting both of plus money, 339 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 4: good chance one of them hits, I think a decent 340 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 4: chance both of them hit. 341 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 3: And now on to Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing 342 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 3: fantasy platform today with millions of players. You probably already 343 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 3: have a fantasy league on there. I use it for mine. 344 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 3: It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry, 345 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 3: and now you could win on Sleeper by playing their 346 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 3: new over undergame. It's super simple for in any sport. 347 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 3: Choose two or more players that you like and pick 348 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 3: their over or under for example, number of points in 349 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 3: basketball or hits in baseball. Then choose the amount of 350 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 3: money you want to enter into the contest. If you 351 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 3: pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two to over 352 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 3: twenty five times the money you put in. The main 353 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 3: reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper is that 354 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 3: it's the only app where I can join my buddies 355 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 3: contests and play together. It's not a built in group 356 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 3: chat where I can see and copy my friend's picks 357 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 3: with a tap of a button. It's insanely fun to 358 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 3: write it out together, So stop what you're doing and 359 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 3: download Sleeper now to play their new over undergame. Have 360 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 3: fun with your friends and make some money on your 361 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 3: mobile phone. Join our listener group on Sleeper at sleeper 362 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 3: dot com, slash Action and Sleeper we'll automatically match your 363 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 3: first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Again, go to 364 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 3: Sleeper dot com slash Action and you'll get a one 365 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 3: hundred dollars match on your first deposit. Terms and conditions apply. 366 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 3: See Sleepers Terms of Use for details. Okay, back to 367 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 3: the show. As we like to do on this podcast, 368 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 3: we do take a deep dive into Daily Fantasy and 369 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:11,960 Speaker 3: Billy's very much into the DFS angles when we look 370 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 3: at these fights and look at the card each and 371 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 3: every week, and Billy this week, you know, looking at 372 00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 3: some of your notes going into today's podcast, you make 373 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 3: a good point. I mean the lines are very they're 374 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 3: very close, right, so that allows for some opportunity to 375 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 3: find some value. Now, there might be an exception here, 376 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 3: all made of being a heavy favorite. He might be 377 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 3: there's a possibility that's a popular play right in the contest. 378 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 3: So it's all made it necessary to play at ninety 379 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 3: four hundred or do you not necessarily have to play 380 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 3: all Mada. 381 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's definitely an interesting fight for this one. He's 382 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 6: really the only, like very heavy favorite on the card, 383 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 6: and you know, he's the most expensive fighter. But there's 384 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 6: just so much salary savings that we can find on 385 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 6: this one that is not really hard to get up 386 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 6: up to him. But I'm not gonna be one hundred 387 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 6: percent all madeup, but I think I will be one 388 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 6: hundred percent that fight. Park Reporter is just so cheap 389 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 6: that if he gets any kind of win, he's probably 390 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 6: gonna end up. 391 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 5: In the optimal lineup. 392 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 6: He also throws a ton of strikes, like he throws 393 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 6: strikes like a one hundred and fifteen pounds female fighter, 394 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 6: but he's you know, two hundred, probably ninety pounds when 395 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 6: he gets in the cage heavyway, So. 396 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 3: I'm estimating, you know, we don't know exactly what these 397 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 3: guys weigh. 398 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 6: But yeah, that's really the only high end fighter I'm 399 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 6: really looking at, you know, home at ninety one hundred 400 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,680 Speaker 6: for cash. Sure, I don't really think she has the 401 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 6: early finishing upside to pay that off though for GPPs. 402 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 6: And then you know, if Sean mentioned Junior Young Park. 403 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 6: He likes Eric Anders is the underdog, and I'm with 404 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 6: him on that one. I don't really see Park putting 405 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,640 Speaker 6: up a huge score. There's some scenarios where Andrews keeps 406 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 6: scribbling back to his feet and Park keeps taking down, 407 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 6: where he racks up seven or eight takedowns and nds 408 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 6: up in the optimble. But I think Anders is just 409 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 6: enough better athlete that I don't see that happening too 410 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 6: many times. So, like I keep saying, when we have 411 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 6: these shorter cards, there's a ton of salary out there. 412 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 6: We don't really need to spend all of it, and 413 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 6: that's just one way to get unique in your lineups. 414 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 6: I also think stacking some fights could be a way 415 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 6: to get unique in your lineup. I really like the 416 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 6: peheu Tons and Abo fight. Those guys both just throw 417 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 6: so much. We could see three or four knockdowns and 418 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 6: both guys survive. So it's not all that unlikely that 419 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 6: one of those guys or both of those guys could 420 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 6: find their way in the optimal even in a three 421 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 6: round fight. And going back to the last October, there's 422 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 6: been two events where two fighters from the same fight 423 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 6: ended up in the optimal and it's played at a 424 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 6: way lower rate than that, So even though it's not 425 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 6: the likeliest thing, it's definitely plus TV, especially on the 426 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 6: smaller slates to stack one of those fights. 427 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 3: Anything to weigh in with Sean in terms of what 428 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 3: Billy's breakdown is. 429 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 4: Now, I just want to touch on one more angle 430 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 4: for the Park reporter gelet nomadle fight. I mentioned if 431 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 4: it gets past round one, I could see going the distance, 432 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 4: and Billy talked about the volume from the park reporter side. 433 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 4: If you want to jump in on Porter, you're definitely 434 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 4: gonna get a lot better live price after round one 435 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,120 Speaker 4: than you will pre fight. I don't see almost any 436 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 4: way that he wins round one unless he's able to 437 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 4: get a knockdown or all made a slips out of 438 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 4: banatappeal or something and Porter ends up top and can't 439 00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 4: get a two hundred and sixty pounds man off of him, 440 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 4: but is very very dangerous for a round. Don't really 441 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 4: know what his cardial looks like after he gets extended, 442 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 4: but could certainly see Porter pulling away on volume at 443 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 4: some point. Maybe a live entry if you want to 444 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 4: play the porter side is the best way to do it. 445 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 3: Billy, how did you feel about because I think last 446 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,640 Speaker 3: week we only had eleven fights also, right, so when 447 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 3: you have these, when you have just a couple a 448 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 3: couple less fights on the on the car when it 449 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 3: comes to dfs, do you find that easier or is 450 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 3: it more of a challenge. 451 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 6: I don't like it because instead of just trying to 452 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 6: figure out what fighters and what fights I like, my 453 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 6: primary goal is just not getting duplicated. Like if you 454 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 6: just make sure that no one else has your lineup, 455 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 6: your ev over a long run is just so much 456 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 6: higher than even like getting the fights right. So it's 457 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 6: really job number one, which is just obnoxious because I rather, 458 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 6: you know, I want to go play the guys I 459 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 6: want to play, and not say, well, if other people 460 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 6: play this guy, I can't. So I don't love it. 461 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 6: But I do think, you know, the people that are 462 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 6: paying attention have probably a bigger edge on these cards. 463 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 5: At least for tournaments. 464 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 6: We can say, okay, if I stack a fighter, if 465 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 6: I leave eight hundred and salary on the table, then 466 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,199 Speaker 6: I just give myself a way a better shot than 467 00:19:58,320 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 6: following the chalk of your builds. 468 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 3: Before this UFC Fight Night two h six betting preview ends, 469 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,360 Speaker 3: we have to get to best bets, so we'll start 470 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 3: with Seawn and then go to Billy. 471 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna take Omar Morales minus one thirty five 472 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 4: at Caesars. Definitely more of an established UFC guy. He's 473 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 4: spot fighters like Dago Shakad's beat and Mowgli Benitez. Can 474 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,640 Speaker 4: definitely hang in a striking battle with pretty much anybody, 475 00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 4: and I do view him as the better striker than 476 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 4: euros Metic Metich is very much a front runner, never 477 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 4: been past the six minute mark in his career, low 478 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 4: level of competition. First time he took a step up 479 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 4: against Jalen Turner, last time got absolutely smoked. Heurt on 480 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 4: the feet, put on the ground, immediately submitted. Not only 481 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 4: do I view Morales as the better striker, I think 482 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 4: he is substantial grappling upside. Not only I mean he 483 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 4: rarely uses it, which is the one concern. And I 484 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 4: still favor him in a striking fight. I think that 485 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 4: minus one thirty five. I like him up to minus 486 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 4: one fifty. I think that's more fair if it is 487 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 4: just purely a striking match. If he's able to take 488 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,719 Speaker 4: Medis down here, he may look minus four hundred from 489 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:01,639 Speaker 4: the jump. So Metich is younger, give more power, but 490 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 4: Morales is moving up from more than forty five to 491 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 4: one fifty five. Maybe that improves his speed a little 492 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 4: bit and he actually has the reach advantage even though 493 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 4: he's a couple inches shorter. So projected this closer to 494 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 4: minus one seventy from Morales would betted up to about 495 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 4: minus one fifty. 496 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 3: All right, Billy, when you got for us, take us 497 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 3: home real quick. 498 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 6: Just as a condor point to Sean Media's nickname is 499 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 6: the Doctor, which is just tremendous given the last name, 500 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 6: and Omar Morales is the extremely boring Venezuelan fighter. It's 501 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 6: like Caitlyn Chikoogian blonde fighter. So my counterpoint on that 502 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 6: is going to be entirely nickname based. But I'm just 503 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 6: betting Venezuelan fighter against someone with a good one. But 504 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,439 Speaker 6: speaking of good nicknames, I'm looking at Tabitha Baby Shark Ricci. 505 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 6: She's I think the best line right now is minus 506 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 6: one thirty. That's another one that slid throughout the week. 507 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 6: But she's fighting Probablyanna Vienna, and it just feels like 508 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 6: a terrible matchup for Vienna. Caiana's wins have all came 509 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 6: by submission, and Tabitha Ricci is a super high level 510 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 6: jiu jitsu player who you know, isn't really a complete 511 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 6: MMA fighter, I don't think at this point in their career. 512 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 6: But I would say current a straight up grappling match 513 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 6: over anyone. So if Vianna's going to initiate the grappling 514 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 6: contest in this one and just go into you know, 515 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 6: the deep waters with baby Shark here, I really like 516 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 6: her her upside and that. And you know, Ricchie is 517 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 6: still only twenty seven. She hasn't been doing MMA for 518 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,639 Speaker 6: a long time, so I see some upside there. And 519 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 6: I also like this bet to end by this fight 520 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 6: to end by submission. At plus two hundred, I think 521 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 6: one of them almost certainly gets it, and it's a 522 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 6: lot easier to submit someone else who's also working offensively. 523 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 6: Neither of these two are going to be just playing 524 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 6: defense on the ground totally up trying to avoid getting tap. 525 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 6: They're both going to be rolling for stuff fairly aggressively, 526 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 6: which makes it likelier that one of them gets it. 527 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 3: I thought you were going to do the little jingle, 528 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 3: the little song. 529 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,640 Speaker 6: Now we've done way too much of that in my house. 530 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,399 Speaker 6: I have a four year old, so you know she 531 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 6: was born right in the baby shark face her baby 532 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 6: shark boom. 533 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 3: Nice, very good. Okay, well we'll let chop the hook. Gentlemen. 534 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 3: Great work as always, Seanzrello, Billy Ward two of our 535 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 3: very best at the Action Network covering UFC. Looking forward 536 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 3: to watching UFC Fight Night two o six. Be sure 537 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 3: to get those bets in before Saturday once this pod 538 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 3: comes under on Friday, May twentieth. That's gonna do it 539 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,919 Speaker 3: for us. I'm Brendan glass Sheeen. Thanks so much everybody. 540 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 3: We come to you every Friday when we get the 541 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 3: card and we examine UFC. Looking forward to having you 542 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 3: all again on the Action Network Podcast. 543 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 5: We'll see you