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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, It's Thursday, April tenth, twenty twenty five. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Speaker 2: For Draft season. Just needs to hurry up.

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Speaker 1: It's me and your man, MG, Marcus Grant, joined by

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Speaker 1: Lakwan Jones Michael at Florio. Right now, he's probably somewhere

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Speaker 1: over like Omaha or something.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's in the air right now.

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Speaker 2: He's in the air.

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Speaker 1: Right now. He is on his way back to the

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Speaker 1: homeland of the East Coast for a wedding. So we

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Speaker 1: wish him well. Hopefully it is a good time. He'll

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Speaker 1: be back with us next week. But otherwise, Okay, we

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Speaker 1: got business to attend to correct.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we do. We got to get some stuff done.

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Speaker 1: Got some stuff done. Draft season continues along. We are

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Speaker 1: doing our second part of our running back preview and

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Speaker 1: help us out with that. We're gonna talk to JJ Zacharice.

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Speaker 1: We're talking to the late round quarterback to talk about

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Speaker 1: running backs.

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Speaker 2: JJ Zacharice is gonna stop.

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Speaker 1: His Late Round Prospect guide is out and will get

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Speaker 1: his thoughts on some running back evaluation sort of how

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Speaker 1: he approaches the process and some guys that he likes

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Speaker 1: and maybe doesn't like quite as much for this year's draft,

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Speaker 1: So stick around for that for sure, But it means

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Speaker 1: I do have a little bit of news to dive into.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if these count as news headlines LQ

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Speaker 1: as much as.

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Speaker 3: It's slow around this time, talk about something.

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Speaker 1: Vibes, I'm not sure whatever you want to call them.

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Speaker 1: First in Cleveland, Cleveland dish, John Watson has said that quote,

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Speaker 1: everyone is doubting me that he's gonna come back way

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Speaker 1: better than before.

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Speaker 4: Uh yeah, yeah, look, everybody is doubting him. I mean, honestly,

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Speaker 4: that's true. I just don't know if the return is

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Speaker 4: going to be as great as he thinks, you know,

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Speaker 4: like everybody could be optimistic, but I think we're kind

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Speaker 4: of done with the Deshaun Watson project.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that was gonna be. My question is that, like,

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Speaker 1: will there be a return? You know, obviously the injuries

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Speaker 1: have happened and that has sort of delayed any possible return.

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Speaker 1: But on top of it, he was just flat out

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Speaker 1: bad when he played last year, And at this point

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Speaker 1: you can't ignore the baggage, right, the allegations that that

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Speaker 1: followed him in his time away, the things that he

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Speaker 1: has said that has really that.

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Speaker 2: Really brought more scorn upon him.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think a lot of times Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 1: has been his own worst enemy in terms of this,

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Speaker 1: you know, attempt to rebuild his NFL career. I don't

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Speaker 1: think you can ignore all of that. And I just

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Speaker 1: I wonder, with all of that taken into account, is

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Speaker 1: there really a team out there that's going to take

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Speaker 1: a chance on Deshaun Watson.

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Speaker 2: Uh?

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Speaker 1: You know, I guess at a super super discounted the

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Speaker 1: Browns pay the entirety of his salary.

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Speaker 2: But I just I don't.

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Speaker 1: I just don't see an avenue for Deshaun Watson to

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Speaker 1: seriously make a comeback in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: Like there's only one team that comes to mind, and

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Speaker 4: he happens to be on that team. And I don't

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Speaker 4: think they're gonna be crazy enough to run it back,

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Speaker 4: because like there's no team out there right now that

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Speaker 4: is like running to pick up that phone and like saying, okay, well,

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Speaker 4: if you guys pay majority of his salary, will take

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Speaker 4: him on because he doesn't have much on tape in

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Speaker 4: these last future a few years that have been great

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Speaker 4: that can say he's a starting caliber type of quarterback

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Speaker 4: in this league, Like we have guys that are just

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Speaker 4: kind of floating around, Like I would rather take on

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Speaker 4: to Mac Jones right now, I'd rather take James Winston.

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Speaker 4: We are a Winston podcast. Like there's other quarterbacks that

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Speaker 4: honestly they're backups or they're just journeymen or their bridge quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: They've been playing a lot better than what DeShawn Watson

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Speaker 4: has put on tape. So I just honestly don't know

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Speaker 4: the team. And maybe in Canada and maybe overseas and

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Speaker 4: maybe somewhere else then I don't know, maybe it's another sport.

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Speaker 4: I just don't see it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just you know, I guess understandably, if you

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Speaker 1: are Deshaun Watson, this is kind of what you have

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Speaker 1: to say, right You're not gonna sit around and be like,

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Speaker 1: well it's a wrap, I'm done, Woe was me? Nobody's

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Speaker 1: gonna take a shot. I mean, I think you have

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Speaker 1: to sort of project that, But realistically, I just I

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Speaker 1: have a hard time see, you know the fact that

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Speaker 1: the Browns might decide to rock with Kenney Pickett.

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Speaker 2: At quarterback because that's how bad it was.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I just think in terms of not only

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Speaker 1: what it brought on the field, what it's costing you,

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Speaker 1: and just the massive hit in reputation, public relations, however

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Speaker 1: you want to describe it. Just all the things that

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Speaker 1: have gone along with the Deshaun Watson experience in Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: I can't see them deciding to run it back with him,

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Speaker 1: and I just don't see that any other team. Look,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna break my own rule here. Teams are waiting

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Speaker 1: around on Aaron Rodgers right, nobody's coming up to de

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Speaker 1: Shaun Watson.

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Speaker 2: I did.

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Speaker 1: I hate that, I did it. I hate myself for it.

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Speaker 1: It's okay, but yeah, yeah, it's I think I think

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Speaker 1: it's it's it's.

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Speaker 4: A wrap for Browns fans. Man, they're the most strongest

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Speaker 4: and loyal fan base out there. Because, boy, if this

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Speaker 4: was the Rams, I don't know if I could even

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Speaker 4: put this shirt on early I got because boy it

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Speaker 4: has been tough.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they are the uh, they are the

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Speaker 1: meme of like Lord Whitey, is he giving me your

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Speaker 1: toughest battles?

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Speaker 5: Like?

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Speaker 2: You know, that's that's Cleveland Browns fans. Fine me, why me? Lord?

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Speaker 2: Why me? Lord? Other quarterback names.

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray says he is open to running Moore in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five and now Oakwan. We've talked about Kyler

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Speaker 1: on this show a number of times over the last

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Speaker 1: couple of months. I think our consensus was sort of

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Speaker 1: that we have seen generally the best of Kyler Murray,

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Speaker 1: that he's kind of hit his ceiling, but also that

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Speaker 1: I think we sort of overvalued him because we all

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Speaker 1: remember the one big rushing season right when he had

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Speaker 1: over eight hundred yards that was a big part of

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Speaker 1: his game. We were all sort of hoping that is

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Speaker 1: who he would be and that never really came back again.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that Kyler

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Speaker 1: Murray's gonna run for eight hundred yards in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: But I mean, could we see Kyler at five six

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Speaker 1: hundred yards? And if so, is that enough for you

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Speaker 1: to sort of get back in on him? Because it

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Speaker 1: feels like everybody's kind of meh on Kyler right now.

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Speaker 4: This is kind of weird to me because like, aren't

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Speaker 4: you controlling your legs and you have the decision making

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Speaker 4: to just run, Like there's been times where you see

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Speaker 4: him sail the ball over Marra Harrison Junior down the sideline.

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Speaker 4: Why didn't you just run out of the pocket, you

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Speaker 4: know what I mean. And then there's been times where

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Speaker 4: he's taken some really silly sacks, and you know, it's

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Speaker 4: just like, I don't feel like this is motivating me

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Speaker 4: to be like back in on the Kyler Murray like

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Speaker 4: rushing more trading, because we've been through this, We've kind

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Speaker 4: of seen this, and even if it is five hundred

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Speaker 4: to six hundred yards, it's this offense going to be

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Speaker 4: able to elevate him back to like QB one conversation.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, there's so many question marks around this

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Speaker 4: in terms of him being a fantasy asset for a roster,

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Speaker 4: having that rushing upside again. I rather go after the

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Speaker 4: Justin Fields. I'd rather go for other guys that are

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Speaker 4: just semi mobile than a Kyler Murray who hasn't been

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Speaker 4: giving the bang for your buck, like the ADP hasn't

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Speaker 4: been given back to us, and we could be happy

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Speaker 4: at the end of the season with the type of

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Speaker 4: production we're getting out of him. So I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I think this is just him talking again. I mean, hey,

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Speaker 4: you got the biggest Greg dors fan right here that

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Speaker 4: listen to him saying if he was a little bit

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Speaker 4: taller he would be a wide receiver one. Like you're

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Speaker 4: you're hearing Kyler speak and you hear him talk like this,

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Speaker 4: and it's like, I'm not sold yet. Man, you got

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Speaker 4: to show me. Man, you burnt me way too many times.

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Speaker 1: So I say this, like, as I was sitting here

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Speaker 1: talking about and you were talking about, and I went

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Speaker 1: and looked five hundred and seventy two rushing yards last year,

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Speaker 1: five rushing touchdowns. You know, the rushing totals were the

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Speaker 1: yardage numbers. I should say, we're the best that he's

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Speaker 1: had since that twenty twenty season, the one that we

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Speaker 1: all are pining for again, right, the one that we

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Speaker 1: all want to come back.

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Speaker 2: He did finish as the QB ten.

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Speaker 1: It didn't necessarily feel like it, but he was a

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Speaker 1: fringe QB one, And I guess maybe that's the part

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Speaker 1: that's sort of frustrating, is that it just feels so oatmeal,

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Speaker 1: right when we want something a little we at least

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Speaker 1: want oatmeal with some fruit in it, right, but like

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Speaker 1: it just it right, something right, It just but it just.

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Speaker 2: Didn't feel that way.

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Speaker 1: But again, if that's where he ends up, if he's

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Speaker 1: at five seventy five, if he's at six hundred yards,

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Speaker 1: if you can get five to seven rushing touchdowns out

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Speaker 1: of him, maybe he does pay off that ADP.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he more than pays off that ADP.

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Speaker 1: Because it just it feels like in general, everybody is

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Speaker 1: just kind of like people don't hate Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 2: You aren't, like I'm avoiding Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 1: But it also feels like you you don't you don't

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Speaker 1: plan for Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 2: You settle for Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's unfortunate though, because like it's like the

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Speaker 4: passing numbers don't match his like ceiling for rushing, Like

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Speaker 4: he's banging us on both sides, I mean Paul's but

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Speaker 4: we're still looking at it like we're we're looking at

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Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield, like look at his rushing numbers last season,

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Speaker 4: but look at his passing numbers as well on how

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Speaker 4: he was able to perform and execute in that end zone,

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Speaker 4: Like these are things that Kyler is lacking. Like we

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Speaker 4: know what the ceiling can be for Kyler as a runner,

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Speaker 4: and we know where the arrow is pointing for this offense.

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Speaker 4: Hopefully they address some issues in the draft and grab

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Speaker 4: another wide receiver so we can get this ascending Cardinals

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Speaker 4: offense to a point as a ranser, and I hope

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Speaker 4: they don't get anywhere near us. But honestly, looking at it,

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Speaker 4: like Kyler could do so much more, but we haven't

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Speaker 4: gotten that, Like there's nothing that is proven, like, Okay,

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Speaker 4: he could do this this year because he got this,

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Speaker 4: Oh he could be a rusher. He's saying that he

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Speaker 4: wants to run more.

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Speaker 3: Dude, run more. You should have had you control this,

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Speaker 3: like you don't need design.

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Speaker 1: Runs, Like he's not like a guy that needs like, oh,

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Speaker 1: can you draw this up for me to run?

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Speaker 4: No, you're one of the most elusive like quarterbacks in

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Speaker 4: the league where you just run at will, like you

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Speaker 4: have that ability and you have an old line that

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Speaker 4: could protect you so much, but you take these silly

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Speaker 4: sacks that just don't make sense to me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean I do think there's just something

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Speaker 1: of like, hey, man, obvious to be smart about when

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Speaker 1: you run and how you run.

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Speaker 2: But you can you can go.

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Speaker 3: You can just do it.

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Speaker 2: You can just go.

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Speaker 4: That's why this stuffs to me, Like this wasn't like, oh,

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Speaker 4: we're so back Kyler's up, nah, man, Like you dude,

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Speaker 4: you can run if you want like.

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Speaker 2: Just stop, just stop talking.

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Speaker 1: I also like watching him run because he looks like

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Speaker 1: a toddler who stole the remote on your phone. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say, he's just like he's like you took your

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Speaker 1: phone and you're like, well come back, and he's just

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Speaker 1: like running away from you.

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Speaker 2: With it.

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Speaker 1: Last last headline here, Trevor Lawrence says he has not

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Speaker 1: set a solid date for his return from shoulder surgery,

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Speaker 1: that he's very optimistic. He thinks he's gonna be ready

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Speaker 1: to go for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad I.

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Speaker 1: Can't ask you this because I know how you feel.

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Speaker 3: About Trevor Lawrence looking for my my sat he is.

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Speaker 1: He's very much in the sackle of discontent for you,

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Speaker 1: I know. But look, Liam Cohen is there right, and

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Speaker 1: Liam Cohen has done some good things with quarterbacks. Could

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Speaker 1: that be enough to get you interested in trail? And

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying like you're spending a ton of draft capital,

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Speaker 1: but like no, no, as like as like I neede

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Speaker 1: a QB two that you slide in there who maybe

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Speaker 1: outperforms his ADP.

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Speaker 2: Could you be interested in te law that way?

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Speaker 4: There's only one thing that can get me in and

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Speaker 4: it's very unlucky to happen, and it's a the draft,

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Speaker 4: a Mecca Abuka. They have a spot for that slot,

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Speaker 4: and I honestly think this offense will be just foolproof,

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Speaker 4: like he couldn't fail. And if they grab one of these,

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Speaker 4: you know, solid tight ends out of this draft and

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Speaker 4: kind of feel that void where Evan Ingram is. They

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Speaker 4: just have to put the right pieces around him because

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Speaker 4: when they got Calvin Ridley, he wasn't being utilized properly

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Speaker 4: and we kind of saw how that happened. And then

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Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence needs to stay healthy as well. Like these

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Speaker 4: one of the things that are kind of going under

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Speaker 4: the radar, like yeah, he's playing banged up, like you know,

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Speaker 4: they're going to the playoffs and they want to do

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Speaker 4: this and do that, but overall, he needs to step

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Speaker 4: up overall as a quarterback that's supposed to be this

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Speaker 4: generational talent.

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Speaker 3: So it's like he has.

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Speaker 2: To sailed by the way.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's gone to John Allant Andrew luck Yeah, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: that's gone. That's that's over. That entered the bag of

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Speaker 4: satral discontented og. He's the one on one to reach

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Speaker 4: that height of going into that bag, but more so

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Speaker 4: looking at it like if they get a mecca, a

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Speaker 4: Buka or like even if it's not a mecca, like

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Speaker 4: get somebody there where he finds his strength set and

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Speaker 4: that's targeting that slot position. Like losing Christian Kirk and

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Speaker 4: Evan Ingram from a chemistry standpoint, it's going to take

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Speaker 4: some time for him to rev up to be that

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Speaker 4: quarterback we think he could be. And if Leon Cohen

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Speaker 4: can work his magic in this offseason and he comes

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Speaker 4: out the Gate week one, great cool. Now I won't

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Speaker 4: be campaigning for him to be drafted this year in fantasy,

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Speaker 4: but I won't be the number one hater if he

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Speaker 4: ends up a set you know what I mean, I

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Speaker 4: will take that to the chin, loosen a bag, take

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Speaker 4: him out of it. But Liam Coley could be the guy.

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Speaker 2: He could be the guy that like.

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Speaker 4: He brought back Baker, Like this is a back story

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Speaker 4: quarterbacks that go to Cleveland, it's over, it's curtains, it's

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Speaker 4: it's your first round, like did drowning Menzel's it's over,

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Speaker 4: it's gone, Like this is kind of what it's been.

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Speaker 4: But for him to bring back Baker and bring that

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Speaker 4: confidence and find what works for his strengths. I think

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Speaker 4: that that's what makes Liam Cohen so special.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I'm very interested.

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Speaker 1: The one thing that gave me a little bit of

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Speaker 1: pause was you said, like, uh, you know, if he

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Speaker 1: got a Mecca Abuka, then it would be can't miss.

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Speaker 2: And I feel like we said the same thing about.

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Speaker 1: Arizona last year when they got Marvin Harrison and and

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Speaker 1: it missed and miss bad, it missed, but they didn't

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Speaker 1: have a Brian Thomas junior.

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Speaker 4: They didn't like Brian Thomas junior last year. I know

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Speaker 4: Liam Cohen took that job just because of him what

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Speaker 4: he can see that he can really just open the

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Speaker 4: playbook up with him. So I think that was like

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Speaker 4: one of the pieces to selling points. So I think

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Speaker 4: this can't be missed if they get that type of

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Speaker 4: dynamic wide receiver in that spot to his strengths, like

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Speaker 4: it has to be a move in the draft or

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Speaker 4: listen free Acy Over. I mean, who knows what happens then,

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Speaker 4: I mean they can get Tyreek Hill.

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Speaker 2: Who knows. That's a whole other story that I'm not

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Speaker 2: touching right now.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna let that bust, not letting that not look

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Speaker 1: until there's more actionable news there that's just not worth

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Speaker 1: really diving into that particular anyway, Enough about quarterbacks, We're

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Speaker 1: going to turn our attention to running backs by being

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Speaker 1: having a conversation with the late round quarterbacks. Stick around,

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Speaker 1: JJ Zach reason is going to come back and dive

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Speaker 1: into the running back draft class with us. That's coming

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Speaker 1: up next on the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thank here on the.

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Speaker 1: NFL Fantasy Football Podcast and happy to be joined by

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Speaker 1: a man of letters and science. Friend of the show,

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Speaker 1: the original East Coast Dad himself. You know him as

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Speaker 1: the late round quarterback. It is the one and only

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Speaker 1: JJ Zach Rea.

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Speaker 2: JJ. Good to chat with you again. Always good to

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Speaker 2: see you, my friend. How are things.

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Speaker 3: I'm good. I'm good and right back at you. You know,

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Speaker 3: it's it's draft season.

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Speaker 5: I feel like it's kind of like a lull for

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Speaker 5: us in a way where we're just kind of like

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Speaker 5: waiting for something big to happen that's not just super

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Speaker 5: super neosy and is more actionable. But then once the

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Speaker 5: draft hits were like, I kind of want to go

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Speaker 5: back to that time where it was kind of lull,

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Speaker 5: you know, Yeah, I agree.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, we're all waiting for the biggest news,

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Speaker 4: right I mean, the anone Rogers news. Is he signing like,

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Speaker 4: can we get this over with?

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry I had to bring it up.

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Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, I'm over it.

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Speaker 2: LaQuan just broke. You don't you're not aware this, JJ.

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Speaker 1: But LaQuan just broke what has become the cardinal rule

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Speaker 1: of this show, which is we don't We don't speak

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Speaker 1: his name until he actually does something of our notes.

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Speaker 4: You know, just try to summon him right now, just

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Speaker 4: sign as we're recording.

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Speaker 1: He's Voldemort, He's football Voldemort. We don't need to summon

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Speaker 1: him at all. On the more serious, more pertinent things

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Speaker 1: right now, JJ, The Late Round Prospect Guide is now

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Speaker 1: out in the wild for folks to go pick it up.

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Speaker 1: And why to get you on to talk about, you know,

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Speaker 1: some of the prospects, mostly on the running back side

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Speaker 1: of things.

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Speaker 2: But kind of want to start with the methodology.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you you opened the guide talking about sort

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Speaker 1: of how you came about with this and how you

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Speaker 1: do your evaluations. You write about the Zapp model, and

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Speaker 1: for folks who may may or may not be familiar

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Speaker 1: with it, just kind of explain what exactly that is.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: So, you know, a while ago, maybe like twenty nineteen

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Speaker 5: is time frame, twenty twenty timeframe, I realized that I

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Speaker 5: needed a more hardcore process for evaluating prospects.

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Speaker 3: You know, a lot of what I was doing was

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Speaker 3: just kind of like field based.

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Speaker 5: And you know, reading other things and doing my own analysis,

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Speaker 5: but it wasn't very structured. And so I said to myself, Hey,

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Speaker 5: I'm going to start to build a model. You know,

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Speaker 5: I have kind of a math background. I at least

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Speaker 5: understand that side of things. I didn't get my degree

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Speaker 5: in it or anything, when I at least understand the

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Speaker 5: math side of stuff. And so I started building this

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Speaker 5: model at running back and wide receiver, and it's sort of,

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Speaker 5: you know, changes and evolves every year. Last year I

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Speaker 5: officially named at the ZAP model, which is very creatively

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Speaker 5: named the Zacharyesen Adjusted Prospect Model. So yeah, the ZA

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Speaker 5: model basically looks at a way to project and predict

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Speaker 5: how well a running back or a wide receiver or

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Speaker 5: tight ends. There's a tight end model too, how well

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Speaker 5: they're going to perform across the first three years of

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Speaker 5: their NFL career. So it looks at a number of

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Speaker 5: different inputs. There's not a ton because I've learned through

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Speaker 5: the years that less is often more with modeling. But

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Speaker 5: you know, it looks at things like age.

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Speaker 3: I have a.

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Speaker 5: Metric called breakout score at both of the within both

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Speaker 5: of these models, which looks at age and strength of schedule,

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Speaker 5: so program adjusted receiving yards per team pass aten numbers.

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Speaker 5: You know, there's at the running back position, I look

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Speaker 5: at best season reception share, I'm looking at the size

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Speaker 5: of these players, you know, running back, I'm looking at

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Speaker 5: speed score so wait adjusted forty times. And then there's

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Speaker 5: draft capital, of course too, which is the number one

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Speaker 5: the biggest input is where these dudes get drafted. Because

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Speaker 5: at the end of the day, I to say this

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Speaker 5: to people like the is that model is there to

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Speaker 5: tell you when you should in your drafts and your

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Speaker 5: rookie drafts and your in your redraft leagues when you

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Speaker 5: should deviate from draft capital. Right, So a lot of

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Speaker 5: these guys are going to get drafted where the model

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Speaker 5: says they probably should get drafted. But you're gonna get

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Speaker 5: plenty of players who are overdrafted or underdrafted, and the

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Speaker 5: market's going to kind of follow suit. And that's where

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Speaker 5: you can pounce and find value or find players to avoid.

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Speaker 5: And so that's really what the model is there to do,

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Speaker 5: is to help you understand when a team reaches for

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Speaker 5: a player and you shouldn't reach for a player and

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Speaker 5: vice versa.

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Speaker 4: Man, I love that model, the Z model, Like I

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Speaker 4: probably just feel like it just sounds so good coming

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Speaker 4: off the tongue. But man, you change the way you

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Speaker 4: evaluated running backs this year, Like why does sudden change?

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Speaker 3: Like what kind of spawn that decision making?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's kind of strange. So the running back

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Speaker 5: model now doesn't have any rushing metrics in it, which

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Speaker 5: someone would hear that and they're going to say, this

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Speaker 5: model's trash. This is one of the dust thing's ever heard.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, So basically I tell like I said, I

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Speaker 5: test the model every year to make sure that I'm

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Speaker 5: you know, staying on top of things and whatnot. But

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Speaker 5: I also there's only so many hours in a day,

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Speaker 5: so I'm not testing as many things that could possibly test.

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Speaker 5: And one of the things that I realized this year,

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Speaker 5: so with the running back model. Last year, the breakout

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Speaker 5: score that metric I was talking about was based on

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Speaker 5: age and program adjusted total yards per team play so

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Speaker 5: just think of that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's pretty intuitive metric.

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Speaker 5: It's the number of total yards or running back gets

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Speaker 5: rushing and receiving, divided by the number of plays his

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Speaker 5: team ran, right, And so you take that number and

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Speaker 5: you adjust that for the age the running back was

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Speaker 5: in that given season, and also the strength of schedule

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Speaker 5: and program that that running back played for this year.

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Speaker 5: I just randomly decided to test receiving yards per team

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Speaker 5: pass attempt, which again pretty intuitive. It's the number of

438
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 5: receiving yards a player has divided by the number of

439
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 5: pass attempts as team through.

440
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:43,960
Speaker 3: And I did that.

441
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,840
Speaker 5: I've been doing that a wide receiver for a long time,

442
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 5: but I decided to do it at running back and

443
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 5: lo and behold, it got more signal in the model.

444
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 3: It mattered more.

445
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 5: And so I think a lot of people hear that

446
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 5: and they say, you know again, they think it doesn't

447
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 5: make any sense that I'm not using any rushing metrics.

448
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 5: But you have to remember I'm using other inputs here,

449
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 5: like draft capital for instance, where you know, if a

450
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 5: running back is drafted in round two or you know,

451
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 5: a round three or.

452
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 3: Day two, generally speaking, he's going to be able to

453
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 3: run between.

454
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 5: The tackles relatively well, right, or a round one guy

455
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:18,360
Speaker 5: is gonna be able to do at all.

456
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:18,640
Speaker 3: Right.

457
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 5: And what I've just realized through the years is that

458
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,239
Speaker 5: we as fantasy managers should and we do, care a

459
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,280
Speaker 5: lot more about pass catching than the NFL does. At

460
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:32,199
Speaker 5: the position, PPR formats are the norm. We know that

461
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,719
Speaker 5: even in standard leagues, a target is more valuable than

462
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 5: a rush attempt at the running back position. And so

463
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 5: I think what this is really doing is saying, Number One,

464
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 5: you know, I'm trying to solve something that the NFL

465
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 5: is not necessarily trying to solve.

466
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 3: I'm trying to score fantasy points over here.

467
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 5: The NFL might be trying to find a bruiser or

468
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 5: something and someone who can, you know, just take early

469
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 5: down work and run between the tackles. The other thing, too,

470
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 5: that I think should be noted is that when a

471
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 5: running back can do more than one thing, when he's

472
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 5: not just a between the ten runner, but he also

473
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 5: can catch balls out of the backfield and be that

474
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 5: versatile piece, that's a signal for talent. So sometimes these

475
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 5: running backs are big pass catchers in college, and they're

476
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 5: not big pass catchers in the NFL. But they're talented

477
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 5: enough running backs in the NFL, and it's sort of

478
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 5: as proxy and this signal that they are talented players

479
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 5: when they have that well rounded profile.

480
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 3: That is why, at the end of the day, the

481
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 3: running back model now only includes receiving work because some

482
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 3: of the other stuff is already capturing that running back work.

483
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 1: So I feel like a good measure for any model,

484
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:34,679
Speaker 1: whatever it is, to sort of being able to go

485
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 1: back and apply it to past subjects and see whether

486
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 1: or not it sticks, right, I mean, it's one thing

487
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: to kind of look ahead, but definitely look back and

488
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 1: see if that you know, hey, if guys who turned

489
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 1: out to be good actually you're good in the model,

490
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: it feels like you're onto something. When you take this

491
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 1: sort of new model for running backs and you've applied

492
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 1: it to pass guys, did you find some changes in

493
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 1: the evaluation? Maybe guys that you didn't think of particularly

494
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 1: would be great at the time who actually fit them

495
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: up really well?

496
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 3: Yeah.

497
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 5: I mean, look, whenever i'm testing, I'm retesting to make

498
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 5: sure that as the NFL evolves, and I'm evolving with

499
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 5: this model too, you know, so everything dates back to

500
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 5: twenty eleven, like I said, and it's measuring, you know,

501
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:13,800
Speaker 5: how all these guys.

502
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 3: Do through the first three years of their NFL career.

503
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 5: So every year during the offseason, I get to essentially

504
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 5: add another draft class to my testing subjects, if you will, right,

505
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 5: So now I'm testing everything through twenty twenty two as

506
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 5: opposed to through twenty twenty one, which was last year,

507
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 5: because now the twenty twenty two draft class has played

508
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 5: three years in the NFL, and I can sort of

509
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 5: see how they ended up performing how they've played. So

510
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 5: once I get that tested and done, I can say, okay,

511
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 5: I'm going to apply this model now to every running

512
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 5: back since twenty eleven. This will include you know, guys

513
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 5: who were drafted last year and in twenty twenty three,

514
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 5: and I can then see how things have changed and shifted,

515
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 5: you know, generally speaking, with a change like this, it

516
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 5: wasn't like dramatic across the boards, not like guys just

517
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 5: like had scores that were just so dramatically different, you know,

518
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 5: pre and post change. But there are a couple examples,

519
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 5: like Kyron Williams looks a little bit better, you know,

520
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 5: in this new iteration, because his receiving numbers were really,

521
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,840
Speaker 5: really good in college that was recognized by the model

522
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 5: before because one of the other metrics that production metrics

523
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 5: that the running back model looks at his best season reception.

524
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: Share, and he had that.

525
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 5: You know, I notre dame like he had a decent

526
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 5: receiving profile from that perspective, But the difference is that

527
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 5: his breakout score looks looks decent, which is age adjusted

528
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 5: receiving yards per team pass attempt, and so you know,

529
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 5: he looked a.

530
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 3: Little bit better, which was nice to see.

531
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 5: The one example, though, Thugh, it was probably the most

532
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 5: interesting to me is Kenneth Walker. So Walker coming out

533
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 5: of college and I was pretty open about this. I

534
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 5: had question marks about what his receiving work would look

535
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 5: like at the NFL level, and for the first two

536
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 5: years of his career we didn't see much work through

537
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 5: the air from Kenneth Walker. I mean, he was a

538
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 5: sub you know, nine percent target share type back. And

539
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 5: then last year he got a little bit more work

540
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 5: as a receiver when they got the scheme change and

541
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 5: the new offensive coordinator there and Ryan Grubb. But Walker

542
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 5: actually had one of the best breakout scores in the

543
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 5: entire database, and that was despite the fact that he

544
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 5: had a really low best season reception chair because again,

545
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 5: before the model was looking at reception share as the

546
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 5: receiving mark. Now it's looking at breakout score as well,

547
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 5: and so his breakout score was really strong, his reception

548
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 5: share was not as strong. And the main reason for

549
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 5: that was is that immediately when he saw the field

550
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 5: he started at Wake Forest and he went to Michigan State.

551
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 5: Immediately when he saw the field, he was super efficient

552
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 5: as a receiver. He just wasn't getting a ton of

553
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 5: work as a receiver. And sometimes you see that kind

554
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 5: of dichotomy, that kind of difference, and you know it

555
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 5: at least now like levels things out a little bit,

556
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 5: and Kenneth Walker, you know, ended up being sort of

557
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 5: like a neutral prospect to.

558
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 3: Me where I wasn't really high or low. If he

559
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 3: were coming out right now.

560
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 5: I'd be high on Walker because of this new metric

561
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 5: in the way that I'm measuring things.

562
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 4: Wow, I still kind of feel that way, Like I'm

563
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 4: kind of about kend of Walker, Like I don't know.

564
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 3: I'm just like he's a guy. You know, it is

565
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 3: what is?

566
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 4: But man, we're all in the fantasy streets. Man, I mean, honestly,

567
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 4: what is something you think a lot of people get

568
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 4: wrong when they're trying to you wate running backs.

569
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think that obviously.

570
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 5: I don't think that people necessarily are putting enough substance

571
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 5: and credit into pass catching and that element of a

572
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 5: player's profile. You know, even if again, even if he's

573
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 5: not going to be a pass catcher at the next level,

574
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 5: having that substance as a pass catcher goes a really

575
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 5: long way because it's a signal for talents.

576
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: That's one thing I think.

577
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 5: You know, running back size is a discussion that gets

578
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 5: brought up a lot, especially these days, because we've seen

579
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 5: you know, James Cook, Devon a Chan, Jamir Gibbs, he's

580
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 5: like small at Kyn Williams. These smaller backs be very

581
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 5: Bucky Irving be very relevant in fantasy football, and people

582
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 5: sort of use these one off instances to justify the

583
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 5: fact that it doesn't matter if you're big or small

584
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 5: at running back, you know, which I don't really agree

585
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 5: with because I think everything sort of works together. You know,

586
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 5: a guy like Jamior Gibbs, he has the best breakout

587
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 5: score in the entire model. He's got a great speed score, right,

588
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 5: so he's he's got good weight adjusted speed. You know,

589
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 5: he had a really good receiving profile. Devon a Chan

590
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 5: was a beast from a production standpoint in college. James Cook,

591
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 5: you know, he was at a big program, shared a

592
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 5: backfield with other pros. He had a really good production

593
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 5: profile and receiving profile. You know, the only guy that

594
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 5: in Like I said, with Kyen Williams, he looks better

595
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 5: in the model too. You know, Bucky Irving is I

596
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 5: think just an outlier in general, and it's okay to

597
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 5: be like, yeah, he's just a different kind of back

598
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 5: who ended up hitting and the model didn't capture that

599
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 5: quite as well as it could have.

600
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 3: But size still does matter.

601
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 5: Like if you're looking at ceiling at the running back position,

602
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 5: even when you adjust for where the smaller backs get

603
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 5: drafted all that kind of stuff, you wont guys who

604
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 5: were generally, you know, above two hundred and five two

605
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 5: hundred and ten pounds to be.

606
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: Able to carry that big workload.

607
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 5: It's not even because I think those running backs are better.

608
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 5: It's just how NFL coaches tend to operate, and they

609
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 5: have their own biases, you know. At the end of

610
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 5: the day, it's just it's unfortunate that a guy like

611
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 5: Bucky irv like Bucky Irivin didn't get a lot of

612
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 5: work until later in the season, partially because of that

613
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,120
Speaker 5: coaching bias, you know. So I do think that's still

614
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 5: something that people should should keep in mind, is to

615
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 5: not use outliers to sort of justify their stances about

616
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 5: about running back size. I'd also say people ignore running

617
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 5: back age a little bit too much.

618
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 3: That is one of the factors in the model.

619
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 5: So likeie, you know, you could look at like RJ.

620
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 5: Harvey this year, who I like, but he's twenty four

621
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,879
Speaker 5: years old and that's a little that's a little scary.

622
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 5: And then the last thing I'll say post draft, people

623
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 5: pay a little bit too much attention to landing spot.

624
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 5: And I know that that sounds counterintuitive and it could.

625
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 5: You know, you should look at landing spot, you should

626
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 5: look at situation. Situations just change so fast, man, I mean, like,

627
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 5: especially from a Dynasty perspective, in a year, things could

628
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 5: look totally totally different. So don't let that skew the

629
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 5: way that you view these guys too too much.

630
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you think of landing spot, you talk

631
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: about things changing, Jonathan Brooks immediately comes to mind, right

632
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 1: like he gets to Carolina, we feel like, okay, well,

633
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: you know he's gonna Pushchuba Hubbard aside for sure. Right

634
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: then the you know, a couple of unfortunate injuries, tub

635
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: will get signed to an extension and souddenly, the outlook

636
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: for Brooks looks looks really different than it did, you

637
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 1: know a year or two ago, for sure. I'm you

638
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: mentioned Kenneth Walker and kind of interesting here, right because

639
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: now we live in this nil world where the porter trail,

640
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: the transfer portal is such a big deal. You talk about,

641
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: you know, Walker starting at wake Forest then moving over

642
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: to Michigan State to end his career.

643
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 2: I know you talk about and write about.

644
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 1: You know, sort of teammates and teammate adjusted evaluations, right,

645
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 1: like not penalizing a guy necessarily for playing with a

646
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 1: ton of studs around him. I mean, I think you

647
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: can look at any number of Alabama guys, I would say,

648
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: or Georgia guys out of the last few years and

649
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 1: sort of come up with that.

650
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 2: But how do you sort of.

651
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: Account for going to a place like wake Forest, which

652
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: is definitely not what you'd consider a football factory, over

653
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: to Michigan State, which has a little bit of a

654
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 1: better track record of putting guys in the NFL.

655
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, the.

656
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 5: Model is supposed to be adjusting for strength of schedule,

657
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 5: for breakout score, which really helps.

658
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: And you know there are going to be schemes that

659
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 3: are going to be more friendly.

660
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 5: Like I look at at you know, Woody Marx's coming

661
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 5: out this year from from the Great USC to Great USC.

662
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 3: Coming out of USC.

663
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 5: But he played at at Mississippi State before he transferred

664
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 5: to USC, and he played under Mike Leach, the late

665
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 5: Mike Leach. Mike Leach's offenses historically have just crushed the

666
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 5: running back position in terms of receiving. Like Max Borgie

667
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 5: saw a ton of work through the air. There were

668
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 5: other guys historically that did a lot through the air,

669
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 5: And so I can subjectively be like, Okay, Woody Marx

670
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 5: did this at Mississippi State, and the model's not gonna

671
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 5: necessarily pick up on this, but I can say, okay,

672
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 5: look like he's he's probably not as good of a

673
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 5: receiver as what these numbers are dictating now with Marx,

674
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 5: he then went to a different school and he continued

675
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 5: to be a.

676
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 3: Pretty decent receiver.

677
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 5: So that's obviously good but you can subjectively look at

678
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 5: that kind of thing.

679
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 3: But also you know, when it comes to like scheme,

680
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: when it comes to.

681
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 5: Situation, all that stuff, I think a lot of times

682
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 5: we just make excuses for these guys. You know, Like

683
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 5: a good example of this is with Quinn Shawn Judkins

684
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 5: this year, where you know, you get you get Travon

685
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 5: Henderson and Judkins in the same and backfield. Travon Henderson

686
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 5: sort of the quintessential pass catching back, quinch On Judkins

687
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 5: more than quintessential.

688
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 3: Early down back.

689
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 5: And so Judkins didn't have a great breakout score because

690
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 5: again that's all based off of age of justin in

691
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 5: program adjusted receiving numbers, and his best season reception share

692
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 5: wasn't that good either, And that was throughout college. It

693
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 5: wasn't just when Judkins was at Ohio State. It was

694
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 5: the same way when he was at Old Miss. Now

695
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 5: at Old Miss he also played with Zach Evans and

696
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 5: some other good running backs as well. But regardless, like

697
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 5: he never got there, he never showed it. And you

698
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 5: can look at historical trends like for instance, in the

699
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 5: ZAP model database, we've had twenty two running backs that

700
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 5: have been drafted in the top one hundred with breakout

701
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 5: scores below sixty. Judkins was well below fifty, and then

702
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 5: best season reception shares below ten percent. Only two of

703
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 5: those twenty two in the NFL during their first three

704
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 5: years had had a best season target share with a

705
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 5: minimum eight games played of nine percent, which is not

706
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 5: even that high. So a lot of these numbers are translating,

707
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 5: even if we can explain them away to some degree.

708
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 5: It's just that, you know, it's fine to be a

709
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 5: little more subjective with it. I'm not looking at this

710
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 5: model and saying I have to follow this no matter what.

711
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 5: You know, It's more of a guide for me to

712
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 5: kind of get an idea of a player to be

713
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 5: grounded and not get too high or too low.

714
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: On some guys.

715
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 4: So looking at the consensus top dogs, like when we're

716
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 4: talking Ash and Jen t Lamarin Hampton, Like, are these

717
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 4: two guys it doesn't matter where they land, like the

718
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 4: arrow's going to point out for them, Like the landing

719
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 4: spots shouldn't matter for their outcome for fantasy.

720
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, like I said, like with the model

721
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 5: and the way that I sort of view this stuff

722
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 5: with prospecting, I'm trying to win a fantasy football at

723
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 5: the end of the day, like I don't necessarily I

724
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 5: wouldn't necessarily call myself like a talent evaluator the same

725
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 5: way that Matt Harmon does it with reception perception or

726
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 5: the way that you know, DJ does stuff with with

727
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 5: with his prospecting work, where they're sitting down grinding film

728
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 5: and you know, match charting it and others who are

729
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 5: looking at this stuff have a very strict way of

730
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 5: processing that information. I'm literally trying to find traits that

731
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 5: analytical traits that work, and I obviously watch these guys too,

732
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 5: because I.

733
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 3: Don't want to sound like a moron when I'm talking.

734
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 5: About I'm trying to find these analytical and these traits

735
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 5: that do coincide and correlate to success at the fantasy level,

736
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 5: which is a different game that I'm solving than someone

737
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 5: who is just saying this guy's talented, this guy's a

738
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 5: good fit for this team, et cetera, et cetera. So

739
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 5: when it comes to guys like a Marion Hampton and

740
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 5: Ashton Genty, I can look at the marks that I

741
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 5: know correlate well to NFL success in fantasy football, and

742
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 5: one of those marks is going to be draft capital,

743
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 5: and I can say, Okay, we know that Ashon Gents

744
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 5: is going to go in round one, right, I'd say

745
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 5: there's a better chance of not right now that Marion

746
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 5: Hampton's going to go Round one. Okay, if you look

747
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 5: at history since twenty eleven, of the first round running

748
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 5: backs we've seen sixty six percent of them have given

749
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,239
Speaker 5: us sixteen or more PPR points per game in one

750
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 5: of their first three years in the league, which is wild.

751
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: That's like an RB one season.

752
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 5: And the guys who haven't done that, players like Josh

753
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 5: Jacobs who eventually got there, mark Ingram eventually got there,

754
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 5: or guys who just couldn't stay healthy like David Wilson

755
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 5: who had to retire early, or Rashad Penny who just

756
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 5: continuously got hurt. The only guys in the that have

757
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 5: been first round running backs that haven't given us at

758
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 5: least one of those good seasons across their first three

759
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 5: in the league since twenty eleven. The only two guys

760
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 5: that really didn't get there were Sony Michelle and Clyde

761
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 5: Edwards Hilaire, and both of them had some red flags

762
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 5: of their profile number one, but number two, they were

763
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 5: end of the first round picks.

764
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 3: So they were barely first round picks to begin with.

765
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 5: So I can tell you guys that like analytically, Ashton Genty,

766
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 5: Amari and Hampton, like Ashton, Gent's marks.

767
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: Are otherworldly, like they are like top six.

768
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 5: Basically every category among all running backs in the database

769
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 5: is history, which is wild because it's not just like

770
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 5: one metric Warre's top six. It's like breakout score, He's

771
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 5: up there, best season reception, Charry's out there, He's up there,

772
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 5: you know, totally ours per team play, which is even

773
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 5: part of the model, but he's up there in that.

774
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 5: And then Amari and Hampton, I think of all the

775
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 5: backs in this class, he's the one who gets the

776
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 5: best comps, the statistical, objective, analytical comps, like he gets

777
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 5: guys like Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. You know, Rashon

778
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 5: Penny was one of his comps as well. But to me,

779
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 5: like he checks a lot of the analytical boxes. If

780
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 5: he gets that draft capital, then then I'm going to

781
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 5: be all in. And I think that that Hampton is

782
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 5: going to be a stud regardless of where he goes.

783
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 5: If he does fault around too, I think it just

784
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,479
Speaker 5: becomes a little bit more of a question mark.

785
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: I want to dive into that idea of draft capital

786
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: a little bit too, a little bit more, but first we'll.

787
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 2: Take a quick break.

788
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,359
Speaker 1: We'll come back more with JJ Zacharieson and the Late

789
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 1: Round Prospect Guides. Stick around for more on the NFL

790
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Podcast Jenny with JJ Zacharesa, you go and

791
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,919
Speaker 1: get the Late Round Prospect Guide. We're having a chat

792
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,439
Speaker 1: with him about running backs and you talk about, yeah,

793
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: that model and all that. You talk about draft capital,

794
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: and obviously you know, the understanding is you've pointed out

795
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: a couple of times, right like what you see or

796
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: what you read is not necessarily a hard and fast rule,

797
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: more of a suggestion sort of thing. We have gone

798
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: through the era of arguing whether or not running backs

799
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: matter for an actual NFL football team. I think the

800
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: consensus isn't. And I think, look, I think the consensus

801
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 1: is in fantasy running backs matter very much, right that,

802
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 1: no matter how much we push wide receivers, what have

803
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: you up the board. Look, we're still last year we're

804
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: talking about Christian McCaffrey near the top of the board.

805
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 1: This year we're talking about you know, whatever Bijon, Saquon whatever.

806
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: These guys still very much matter. But because there's still

807
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: a little bit of squeamishness about drafting running backs early

808
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 1: in real football, and we talk about draft capital and

809
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 1: fantasy football, how do you kind of square that circle?

810
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 1: I mean, like there will be people who I think

811
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: believe Ashton Gentz gets overdrafted, no matter what, do you

812
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: how do you how do you kind of reconcile stuff

813
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 1: like that?

814
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just separate the games, man, you know, like

815
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 5: football and I see football is just you know, it's

816
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 5: a game about numbers at the end of the day,

817
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 5: and I think a lot of times people want it

818
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,760
Speaker 5: to really match closely to what's.

819
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 3: Going on in the NFL, and that's why.

820
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 5: We get super flex leagues and that's why we get

821
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 5: you know, to make quarterbacks more valuable. And that's that's fine,

822
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 5: Like we I would like to have quarterbacks be more valuable.

823
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, like this is

824
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 5: a game about numbers, you know, fantasy football, we're looking

825
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 5: at statistics and we're trying to find players who are

826
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 5: going to compile the best numbers and so you know,

827
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 5: whatever means necessary in terms of figuring that out, and

828
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 5: so they're like, I do think that the NFL is

829
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 5: going to value running back a little bit more than

830
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 5: it did, say, five years ago, just because of what

831
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 5: we saw last year with that free agency class, and

832
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,799
Speaker 5: then this year we you know, we we uh conveniently

833
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,280
Speaker 5: have an unbelievable running back class. So I think teams

834
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 5: are gonna be more willing to just say, oh, look

835
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 5: look at what happened in Philadelphia. Even if there's a

836
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 5: bad correlation causality situation going on there, teams are still

837
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 5: going to say, look what happened with sa Quon Barkley,

838
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 5: Look what happened to Derrick Henry, And they're gonna want

839
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 5: to have a running back they.

840
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 3: Can rely on.

841
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 5: And honestly, just from like a schematic standpoint, it makes

842
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 5: sense to just want to use one running back to

843
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 5: not show your hand when that guy's on the I've

844
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 5: never understood that aspect of things. That's something that Sean

845
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 5: mcvayh has done really well with is that, you know, like,

846
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,240
Speaker 5: that's why I think that teams should just rotate running

847
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 5: backs by drive rather than by situation and down right,

848
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 5: so you know, mcveig running Kien Williams into the ground

849
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 5: has just as much to do with the fact he

850
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,439
Speaker 5: doesn't want to show his hand as it does Kien

851
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 5: Williams being a good running back. You know, it's a

852
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 5: it's an important piece for a coach understand. But you know,

853
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 5: at the end of the day, like whether or not

854
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 5: we think running backs are valuable or not from a

855
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 5: real football standpoint, there are always going to be teams

856
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 5: and there's always going to be a Pete Carroll that

857
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 5: is going to want to draft that running back early.

858
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 5: It's going to happen. And that's something that like I

859
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 5: used to get this question all the time when it

860
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 5: came to my modeling and stuff in the ZAP model,

861
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 5: because obviously draft capital is an input and people would

862
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 5: say things like, well, what about with running backs being

863
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 5: devalued and blah blah blah blah.

864
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 3: You can look back till.

865
00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 5: Since twenty eleven, which is when this thing dates back to,

866
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 5: there's no sort of like like rhyme or reason for

867
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,959
Speaker 5: where running back like we're seeing first round running backs

868
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 5: all the time. Like it didn't stop, you know, it

869
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 5: stopped whenever the running back class sucked. It didn't stop

870
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 5: me because people devalued running backs when there's a good

871
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 5: running back, he will get drafted in the first round.

872
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 5: And so to me, it's just a proxy, a signal,

873
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 5: whatever you want to call it, a way to say

874
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 5: if a team is going to invest first round draft

875
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 5: capital in Ashton Gente, I can sit there and say,

876
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 5: that's probably not the best use of your resources, but

877
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 5: my gosh, he's probably gonna be really good in fantasy football.

878
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: I'mnna draft them everymore.

879
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 4: Well, how about this, like guys that blow up one

880
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 4: year in college? Like how worried should folks be about?

881
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 4: Like a camp Scataboo, Like where where is your you know,

882
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:43,840
Speaker 4: thoughts on that.

883
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it depends on the player obviously.

884
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 5: You know, Skataboo is interesting because he you know, he

885
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 5: played at Sacramento State where it just like like the

886
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,839
Speaker 5: production doesn't matter until he does transfer, and then the.

887
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: Production starts to matter a little bit more. You know.

888
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 5: I try my best in the model to at least

889
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 5: adjust for I know, this guy is a isn't a

890
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 5: running back. But there's a wide receiver in this year's

891
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 5: class named Isaac Tesla, and he played he started at

892
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 5: his collegiate career before finally transferring to a bigger program.

893
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 5: But he he started his collegiate career at Hillsdale College.

894
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 5: Shout out Hillsdale College. Never heard of the place in

895
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 5: my entire life. And his numbers were obviously like out

896
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 5: of control at Hillsdale College because he's playing against non

897
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 5: professional type athletes. I mean, they're better athletes than any

898
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 5: of us are, but you know they're not there, They're

899
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 5: not D one athletes, So he should dominate in those situations.

900
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 5: Similar like Camp Skataboo. You know, if a running back

901
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 5: is playing at a smaller school than no one's heard

902
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,879
Speaker 5: of before and he's not putting up decent numbers, that's

903
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 5: a red flag.

904
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 3: That's where I that's when I start to get a

905
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 3: little bit nervous.

906
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 5: Skataboo, though, dominated at Sacramento State, and then he transfers,

907
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 5: you know obviously in Arizona State and he does what

908
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 5: he did, you know, his final year. I think that

909
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 5: he probably has the second best production profile in this

910
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 5: class behind Ashton gent Does. I mean, I think he's

911
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,959
Speaker 5: the second best running back because there's an age factor there.

912
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,200
Speaker 5: He's an older running back. You know, there's gonna be

913
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 5: draft capital his forty time. You know, he didn't run

914
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 5: into combine, but he had a pro day forty that

915
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 5: was still not that strong. I like Skataboo, but you know,

916
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 5: there's other things that will bring him down. But strictly

917
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 5: from a production standpoint, I actually think it's it's pretty.

918
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 2: Good shout out to the Hillsdale Chargers.

919
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: And I absolutely did not look that up at all

920
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 1: and completely knew that off the top of my head.

921
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: You know, you talk about using receiving prowess as part

922
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: of your evaluation, and that's the thing that we've talked about,

923
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 1: especially when you look at the you know, the later

924
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 1: day to day three guys that it feels like their

925
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 1: best path to getting on the field or at least

926
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: having fantasy production.

927
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 2: Let's put it that way. Then having fantasy.

928
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 1: Production is being able to contribute in the passing game, right,

929
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 1: because those guys may not get a big.

930
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 2: Opportunity to run the football.

931
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 1: I always talk about some guys who in college, they

932
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 1: come out of college, people have questions about their past

933
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 1: catching ability, and I wonder whether or not it's that

934
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 1: a guy can't catch the ball, or if it's just

935
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: because of the scheme of his offense they didn't give

936
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 1: him an opportunity to catch up, like I said this

937
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 1: about Jonathan Taylor. I'm like, well, is it that Jonathan

938
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: Taylor just is a bad pass catcher or is it

939
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: just Wisconsin didn't throw the ball to its running backs?

940
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 1: You know a whole lot. I mean, how do you

941
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: look at guys like that? How much do you evaluate

942
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: just the way the offense works in terms of trying

943
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 1: to figure out whether a guy is actually able to

944
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: contribute in a passing game.

945
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question. I think a lot of

946
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 3: people look at.

947
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 5: Raw data and they say, oh, this guy wasn't much

948
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 5: of a pass catcher, like Caleb Johnson's a really good

949
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 5: example of that in this year's class, where his receiving

950
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 5: numbers were not strong raw data wise throughout his three years.

951
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 3: But actually, when.

952
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 5: You give that context and you see that Iowa last

953
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 5: year through the ball the six fewest times in D

954
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 5: one football, and you know, obviously when the team's not

955
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 5: throwing the ball that much, you know, regardless of how

956
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 5: often they're targeting a guy, they're not going to see

957
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 5: high totals. Caleb Johnson actually had a decent reception share

958
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 5: this past year, is actually well above average compared to

959
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 5: the rest of the class. So all the numbers that

960
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,439
Speaker 5: I'm looking at will give that at some context. Now,

961
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 5: there's gonna be situations where, you know, Damian Martinez is

962
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 5: an example of this, where you know, Martinez had had

963
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,360
Speaker 5: a best season reception share of five point four percent,

964
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 5: which is really low. His breakout score was only forty one.

965
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 5: He does not have that strong of a receiving profile,

966
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 5: and that that scares me. That's a that's a red

967
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 5: flag like that in and of itself. And then you know,

968
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 5: I'll talk to some people who maybe look at the

969
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 5: stuff in more detail than I do. And you know,

970
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 5: I had I talked to Matt Waldman on my podcast

971
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 5: last week and he mentioned with Damian Martinez, who he's

972
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 5: higher on than I am. You know, he mentioned with

973
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 5: Damian Martinez that his offensive system before he transferred to Miami,

974
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 5: it was one where the quarterback would take a lot

975
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,720
Speaker 5: of play action bootlegs and he'd go out to the outside.

976
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 5: The running back, Damian Martinez would go to the other

977
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 5: side of the field. The defense would focus in on

978
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 5: Martinez because he's that good of a player in that

979
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 5: situation that the quarterback can't throw the ball to the

980
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 5: running back, you know, like he's on the opposite side

981
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 5: of the field. You're all of a sudden running a

982
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 5: trick play if you're gonna if you're gonna throw the ball,

983
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 5: you know, and give the running back the ball in

984
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 5: that in that situation now, So so I think that

985
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 5: you can give context to those situation. With that being said,

986
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:02,919
Speaker 5: I just go back to what I said earlier, where

987
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 5: Like I don't want to make too many excuses for

988
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 5: players because that often can lead to you having too

989
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 5: rosie of an outlook on a particular guy, like, for.

990
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 3: Instance, Damian Martinez.

991
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 5: His his reception share is so low that in the

992
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 5: zapmodel database, there's only been two running backs with a

993
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:22,280
Speaker 5: reception share as low as his who have scored thirteen

994
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 5: or more PPR points per game across their first three

995
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 5: years in the league. So, like, I know of just

996
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 5: from a probability perspective, that the chance at Damian Martinez

997
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 5: hits at a high rate, probably not super super high,

998
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 5: just on that data point alone, And then I can

999
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 5: just contextualize it a little bit and say, he's probably

1000
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 5: one of the better interior runners you know, in this

1001
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 5: class if he does find a place, Like how awesome

1002
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 5: would it be if he falls to Chicago. You know,

1003
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 5: that's one of the situations where you know, you can

1004
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 5: adjust based on landing spot a little bit, you can

1005
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,320
Speaker 5: be a little bit looser with how you're ranking these guys.

1006
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 5: But you know, overall, I'm just trying to look at

1007
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 5: trends and see, you know, what matters and what doesn't

1008
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 5: matter at the end of the day. And again, I

1009
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 5: think that the straight way to answer this question would be,

1010
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 5: I don't want to make too many excuses for players

1011
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:11,760
Speaker 5: when oftentimes good players, even Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor's reception

1012
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 5: share was still in like the twelve thirteen percent range,

1013
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 5: you know, Wisconsin, Like they didn't throw the ball a lot,

1014
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 5: but they at least when they did, they were targeting

1015
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 5: Taylor because he's a really good football player and he'll

1016
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 5: be able to do a lot when the ball is

1017
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 5: in his hands. So that's sort of like the downside,

1018
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 5: like a Martinez is like, if he is that good,

1019
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,240
Speaker 5: then why wasn't he getting the ball more as a receiver?

1020
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,280
Speaker 3: You know? And so I try to ask that question

1021
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 3: in the reverse instead of making that excuse for the guy.

1022
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 4: Wow, so you brought up his name, man, I got

1023
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 4: to ask, now, Marcus knows that. I had this take

1024
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 4: out the other day about Caleb Johnson. I feel as

1025
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 4: though when I watch his tape on board, I mean like,

1026
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:47,680
Speaker 4: if you look at I was O line, they were

1027
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 4: one of the best last season, and honestly, those holes,

1028
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 4: I honestly think Marcus could get like one hundred yards

1029
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:54,760
Speaker 4: and with those type of holes that he was getting.

1030
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 4: So I just feel as though that he is being

1031
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 4: a little bit overvalued in the fantasy streets. I'm just

1032
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 4: series of your thoughts on Caleb Johnson and does landing

1033
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 4: spot actually matter for an outside zone scheme that he

1034
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 4: played in?

1035
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, one hundred percent. I think the scheme is going

1036
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 3: to matter for Johnson.

1037
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 5: It's funny because you know, he went to the Combine

1038
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,760
Speaker 5: and again the only input I think people hear model

1039
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 5: and they think that I'm like only worried about athleticism

1040
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 5: and testing you know at the combine or at their

1041
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 5: pro days. I really don't care at all. I mean

1042
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 5: that that's going to impact the player's draft capital. Like

1043
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 5: Matthew Golden not running a four two nine or whenever

1044
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 5: he ran, you know, him not doing that, he wouldn't

1045
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 5: be a first round pick. More than likely so it's

1046
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 5: going to be reflected in the model in some way

1047
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 5: because the draft capital is going to be going in

1048
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 5: the model. But like Caleb Johnson, he goes out, he

1049
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 5: runs a forty that was probably to be expected, and

1050
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:45,640
Speaker 5: speed score, which is way adjusted forty time, is something

1051
00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 5: that does go in the running back model. He ran

1052
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 5: a forty that was probably to be expected because no

1053
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 5: one saw his like long speed on film, you know,

1054
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 5: going to the combine. Then we're no one said he

1055
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 5: was going to blow by defenders and be that dude

1056
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 5: at the next level. He's a bulldozer, like he's a

1057
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 5: He's a big body dude can show a really big workload,

1058
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 5: and that's what a team's gonna get with a player

1059
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 5: like that, Like he's a One of his comps was

1060
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 5: James Connor in the in the in My Zap model,

1061
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 5: you know, Daniel Thomas was another one, So let's hope

1062
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 5: it doesn't go that direction.

1063
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 3: But and then Le'Veon Bell was another.

1064
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 5: But you know, I think that that Johnson running a

1065
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 5: slower forty wasn't bad in the context of like his

1066
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 5: speed score was still okay because he's so big, you know.

1067
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 5: Two hundred and twenty four pounds. The problem is that

1068
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 5: the rest of this draft class is so good, and

1069
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 5: the rest of the draft class was really fast at

1070
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 5: the combine, like amazing weight adjusted forty times, and so

1071
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 5: I do think that just because of that, he fell

1072
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 5: down a little bit. And my fear with him would be,

1073
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:44,879
Speaker 5: you know, going back to I'm just trying to solve

1074
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 5: fantasy football. I think he's a good player. I think

1075
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 5: Johnson can carry a big workload. You know, in the

1076
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 5: right system, he should be able to be a two

1077
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 5: hundred plus touch back pretty easily. My fear would be,

1078
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:58,279
Speaker 5: is a team going to give him that opportunity if

1079
00:46:58,320 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 5: they don't take him in one of the first two

1080
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 5: rounds draft if he does fall to round three, there

1081
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 5: is a difference between round three and round two and

1082
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,959
Speaker 5: the way that those guys end up typically seeing work,

1083
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 5: you know, at the next level, and then there's a

1084
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 5: big drop off when you get to a Day three guy.

1085
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 5: I don't think Johnson's gonna fall to Day three, but

1086
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 5: I do think there could be a difference between him

1087
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 5: being a round two.

1088
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 3: And a round three player.

1089
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 5: And there are guys that you know, like a quin

1090
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 5: Shawn Judkins, a Traveon Henderson, who we're gonna probably feel

1091
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 5: a little bit better about going round two than Johnson.

1092
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 5: So that's gonna be a big tie breaker for me,

1093
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 5: Landing Spot. Sure, you know, see if that scheme is

1094
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 5: there for him, but also is that team going to

1095
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 5: be willing to give him that big workload and I'm

1096
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 5: gonna feel better about that if he's a round two

1097
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 5: guy versus a round three to one.

1098
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 1: How much of all this would be so much easier

1099
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:47,760
Speaker 1: if the combine actually resembled real football because of drill,

1100
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:48,479
Speaker 1: you know.

1101
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 5: You know, I'll say this though, like I know what

1102
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 5: matters at the combine for fantasy, right, So, like, like

1103
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 5: I know that speed scot you know, whenever I say

1104
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 5: that speed scores, and I'm really just looking at like

1105
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 5: an upper bound and guys hitting like a you know,

1106
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,240
Speaker 5: like a ninetieth percentile or better, and then a lower

1107
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 5: one where they get dinged the majority of running max

1108
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 5: it's a neutral score for them in terms of speed score.

1109
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 5: Like even you know, like Kareem Hunt was slow at

1110
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 5: the combine, he still had a neutral score based on

1111
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 5: his weight and all that kind of stuff. But like

1112
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 5: my thing is is like if I know that, like

1113
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 5: I agree, like intuitively and just like practically a dude

1114
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 5: running a straight line speed in shorts when they're playing football, Like,

1115
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 5: there's why should that matter? But I do know that

1116
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 5: there are that speed score at these bounds, right at

1117
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 5: the upper bound and lower bound.

1118
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 3: It does matter.

1119
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 5: You know, there is some signal there, So I care

1120
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 5: about it only because of that.

1121
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 3: But there's so much.

1122
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,720
Speaker 5: But the problem is the NFL actually, especially a wide receiver,

1123
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 5: they overexaggerate that stuff more than even fantasy managers do,

1124
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,720
Speaker 5: like like Matthew Golden's Like if I were to actually

1125
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 5: layer on forty times into the model, the model would

1126
00:49:00,239 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 5: get less predictive because NFL teams are often boosting up

1127
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 5: these players who are fast when they shouldn't be doing

1128
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 5: that because at the end of the day, what matters

1129
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 5: a lot more is the production side of things and

1130
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:11,720
Speaker 5: how they actually played on a football field.

1131
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 2: Shocking.

1132
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 4: Yeah right, well, Davin and Austin came to mind when

1133
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 4: you said that, But yeah, we are. I mean, look,

1134
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 4: is there any potential in like day three guys that

1135
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,440
Speaker 4: are on your radar, Like, are we going to get

1136
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 4: like a pukin Nakua out of nowhere type that is

1137
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 4: just going to fall into a situation and be able

1138
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 4: to step up and perform at.

1139
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 2: A high level.

1140
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:32,799
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna get it at running back in

1141
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 3: this class.

1142
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 5: This class is too good, too talented to not see

1143
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 5: someone emerge. You know, realistically, we don't see We see

1144
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 5: maybe maybe two in a given year give us like

1145
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 5: decent production across their first three years. Like even Bucky

1146
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 5: Irving's production was not normal and what we see and

1147
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 5: we had him and Tyrone Tracy last year, but like

1148
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:52,480
Speaker 5: that's not you know.

1149
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 3: From like a long standing.

1150
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 5: You know, uh RB one RB two type player, you

1151
00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 5: usually only get one per class, if that. But I

1152
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 5: do think we're going to get I think there's a

1153
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 5: potential we get three or four in this class because

1154
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 5: it's that good of a running back group. One guy

1155
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 5: that has has popped for me and that I bring

1156
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 5: up seemingly on every show that I do is Jarqus

1157
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,320
Speaker 5: Hunter out of Auburn.

1158
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 3: He's not getting that much steam. I don't think he's

1159
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:20,439
Speaker 3: going to be a Day two guy.

1160
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 5: But if you look at his numbers, he had an

1161
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 5: ok enough reception share, it was like eleven percent in

1162
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 5: his best season at Auburn, but he had one of

1163
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,319
Speaker 5: the best breakout scores in the class because when he

1164
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 5: did get the ball through the air, super super efficient

1165
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 5: was gaining a ton of yards and he did that

1166
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 5: at a young age, which is really good to see.

1167
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:37,319
Speaker 5: But compared to the rest of this class, and again

1168
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 5: it's a really really good class. He was fifth in

1169
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 5: career avoided tackles per rush. He was ninth in career

1170
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,799
Speaker 5: explosive run rate, and he was ninth in career yards

1171
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,719
Speaker 5: after contact per attempt. He's maybe a little undersized, but

1172
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 5: I think he can bring some juice. He had a

1173
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 5: good forty decent speed score. So I like Jarqus Hunter.

1174
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 5: And then there's two guys that kind of have this

1175
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 5: like wide wide range of outcomes that might go Day two.

1176
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 5: I think that there's a decent chance. There's probably a

1177
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 5: better chance to go Day three. One of them is

1178
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 5: DJ Giddins. He he had an unbelievably good testing at

1179
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 5: the combine and he checks a lot of boxes, you know,

1180
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 5: with within the zapp model where he has good side

1181
00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:20,839
Speaker 5: He had pretty good receiving numbers. You know, if you

1182
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 5: sort of filter out what he did at from a

1183
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 5: total yards per team play rate and a receiving rate,

1184
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 5: and you know, best season reception share, you really just

1185
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:30,919
Speaker 5: get stud after stud that hit those marks. Now again,

1186
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 5: I don't know if the draft capital is going to

1187
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 5: really be there for him, so that's going to go

1188
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 5: a long way. But I do like Giddins as sort

1189
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 5: of like a high ceiling, low floor kind of player.

1190
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 5: And then the other guy is the guy who crushed

1191
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 5: the combine. Then everyone was talking about post combine and

1192
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 5: as base Shall Tuton, who you know, crazy forty time

1193
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 5: home run hitting speed. On one end, he comped to

1194
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 5: Darynton Evans in the model, so that's not great.

1195
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 3: But on the other end, he actually comped to Kenneth Walker.

1196
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 5: Very similar size, really good burst, home run hitting ability,

1197
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 5: enough receiving actually i'd say plus receiving for the most part,

1198
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,319
Speaker 5: at least above average receiving. I don't think he's as

1199
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,919
Speaker 5: good of a prospect as Walker, but he does have

1200
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:11,760
Speaker 5: some similar ways that he could potentially make an impact

1201
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 5: in fantasy football.

1202
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,959
Speaker 3: So those are the three I'll call out. Jark West, Hunter,

1203
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:16,760
Speaker 3: DJ Gins, and base Shall.

1204
00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 1: Tuton base all Tuton first rounder in fun names to

1205
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: say in this draft class, without a doubt, for sure.

1206
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 2: JJ has always good stuff.

1207
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 1: Man. We appreciate having you on For the folks who

1208
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 1: may be uninitiated, where can they find you? Where can

1209
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 1: they find the Prospect Guide?

1210
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm on Twitter most socials at Late Round QB

1211
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 5: and then you can check out the Prospect Guy and

1212
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 5: everything else. I got going on over on lateround dot com.

1213
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 1: Was it is it eight years that I saw you

1214
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:44,239
Speaker 1: post eight year anniversary for Late Round now.

1215
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,920
Speaker 5: Fit for the podcast? Yeah, it's air horns have been

1216
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 5: in your ears for eight years.

1217
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 1: Congratulations on that man, fantastic accomplishment. Look forward to a

1218
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 1: whole lot more and absolutely the If you don't know

1219
00:52:57,560 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: now you know, be sure to go check out the

1220
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 1: Late Round Prospect Guide.

1221
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:02,439
Speaker 2: Go find it and go enjoy it.

1222
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 1: Devour it, and hold on to it because I know

1223
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 1: a lot of people look at these guys who are like, well,

1224
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 1: once the draft is over, what do I do? Well?

1225
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 2: You can always go back.

1226
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 1: When a guy suddenly gets drafted, somebody gets elevated to

1227
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 1: a higher roll, you can go back.

1228
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 2: Look at the Prospect Guide, see what people said about.

1229
00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: Him, and use that to make your determination or whether

1230
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 1: or you're gonna spin fab or use a waiver priority

1231
00:53:19,600 --> 00:53:22,359
Speaker 1: on somebody like that. So it should be a lot

1232
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 1: of fun, looking forward to it. A little bit of

1233
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:28,279
Speaker 1: a side note next week on Tuesday schedules that have

1234
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 1: our friend, friend of the show and just friend in

1235
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,279
Speaker 1: real life, Matt Harmon to come on and talk some

1236
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:34,160
Speaker 1: wide receivers with us, so that should be a lot

1237
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 1: of fun as well.

1238
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 2: In the meantime.

1239
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:37,479
Speaker 1: That will do it for this edition of the NFL

1240
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Podcast. Stay happy, safe and healthy, do good

1241
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 1: and live well. Enjoy the weekend everybody. We'll talk to

1242
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:43,439
Speaker 1: you again next week.

1243
00:53:43,680 --> 00:54:08,759
Speaker 3: Wood Bo