WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 10 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:14.880 Check it on Man no down Man. Thursday morning, one 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:18.079 Veteran's day. It's the meeting of the book podcast Megapod 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:23.440 for week number ten in the National Football League, Gil Alexander, 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.880 thanks for watching. We're live at the d not for watching, 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.560 but for for listening. We're live at the d our 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.840 home for the megapod. Uh and of course to my 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:33.640 left the staples of the show. Let's begin with a 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:36.800 gentleman to my left, the vice president of operations at 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:40.600 Circus Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and of course co host 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:44.960 of odds on on the network, the Vega Stats and 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.159 Information Network, co host with them all Shaw. Hopefully we'll 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.960 join us for a future Begapod. It's Michael Palm. Good morning, 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:54.480 Good morning Gil, Good morning Talk, Good morning Ed. I 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.240 thought that Brent Musburger was gonna be on. We've been 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.160 looking forward to this for three weeks and then you 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.880 texted Rent has moved, and I thought, who could Gil 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:06.160 get to dampen this blow? Right, to lessen this blow? 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.760 And it could really only be two people, either anything 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:13.200 or Dr Bob. So you pulled it out and we 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.600 got it. Yeah. By the way, I should also point 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:19.360 out every week that you are also on the American 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:21.640 Gaming Association Board of Directors. How was your trip to 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:24.959 DC in Iowa? Well, it was wonderful. You know. The 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:28.000 hot topic, of course the sports wagering with the American 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:32.680 Gaming Association. But you know what, what was the controversial 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:37.000 subject of this board meeting was the over proliferation or 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:42.960 over saturation of commercials for these different sports betting operations. 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:45.480 And like, we don't really get it here, Gil, but 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:48.680 I guess in you know, in in the DC area, 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:52.120 in Virginia, in Pennsylvania, and in New Jersey, it's like 0:01:52.160 --> 0:01:55.720 eleven out of twelve commercial you might know Todd, every 0:01:55.720 --> 0:02:01.480 other commercial Pittsburgh's Draft Kings, you met one dollar and 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:08.359 you win two hundred. Oh. Remember that was the problem 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:11.799 when Daily Fantasy hit, remember, and they cracked out over 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.080 the place. Yeah, so we need to be a little 0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:16.320 more responsible maybe. And then you want to move back 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:18.640 to Iowa, I would love to. And that's a wonderful 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:20.840 place to way. It hasn't changed in twenty two years 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.880 since I left. I mean it's just beautiful, all right. 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.040 Do you think you're I love their cheers. By the way, 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:27.880 have you ever been to an Iowa basketball game, Gill. 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.320 Here's the creativity of the cheer. It was like this, 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:41.399 I oh, w let me guess when you know when 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:43.600 the natives have so beautifully named your state where I 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:45.760 messed with it, they can they can spell over there. 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.160 That's the voice of Todd Wish that from his mom's 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:51.200 cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Dad, thanks for doing it, 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:53.400 as always wonder how how do I know that cheer? 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:56.560 Because Iowa was playing at one of those tournaments called 0:02:57.560 --> 0:02:59.880 Vegas I went to and they started. There was a 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:02.040 kind of Iowa fans they started doing the cheer and 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:04.720 I was like, is this seriously the cheer? I was like, 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:07.720 I was embarrassed from State. I have to tell you. 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.480 The Iwish State fans a little more creative. When when 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.760 I was State scored their third touchdown of the third 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:20.240 quarter against Texas, they all started channing sec sec. You know. 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:24.320 I went to Tufts Division three college football powerhouse, and 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.360 when we were getting beat by the Amherst Lord Jeff's, 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.919 we used to derisively chant s a T, S A T. 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:35.320 That was our way to get banks a little northeast northeast, 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:38.920 northeast intellectual humor. That was that was the whole point 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.160 of the joke, Todd that it was ridiculous. Thanks for 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.120 acting like you got one over on me, Todd, wishnev 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:47.880 the reverse joke. Uh, Ed Vegas here, That's who we 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:50.040 talked about earlier. That's what we were alluded to earlier. 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:54.400 The the founder of the Power Rank uh and kind 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:56.040 enough to join us each and every year. Now we 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:58.920 can say that on the on the megapod, ed, what 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:00.360 else are you went too these day? Is? I can 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:04.280 never keep a track of it? Well, I mean, after 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:07.360 Mike mentioned my name in the same sentences Bob stole, 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:09.440 my week can only go down from here. So I 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.960 appreciate that. Appreciate that, Mike. I run the Power Rank 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:15.280 dot Com. I write a weekly email, not a weekly 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.240 I write an email newsletter with games that I've bet 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.280 and uh sports betting tips and news. You can check 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:22.919 that out at the Power Rank dot Com. I do 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:28.280 the Football Analytics Show podcast and uh, I've been on 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:31.599 football games. There you go, there you go. Cam Newton 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:34.279 just signing now, just coming over the wire. Cam Newton 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.560 agrees to a deal with his former team, the Carolina Panthers, 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:41.960 which is Matt Rules way of saying I'm not gonna 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.120 I'm not gonna sit here with p J Walker the 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:47.080 last half of this season and endure this with Sam 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:50.280 Donald out three four weeks. I would be surprised if 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:54.320 Cam Newton wasn't starting Sunday. I think he starts, and 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:56.479 I think if he plays well, even when Sam Donald 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:59.080 comes back, Cam Newton is your starter. Well he energized 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:03.039 that fan base. Yes he will, He absolutely will with 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:06.560 his unique brand of I will fall forward for a 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:08.480 two yards. He did that at Auburn up to a 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.360 national championship. You know what I mean he did. He 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:13.880 just leaned forward for three yards whenever he wanted to, 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:16.520 better than what they have all the roster, that's for sure. 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.919 I just feel bad for you guys in Vegas because 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:22.039 on Tuesday night we had college basketball was back and 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.320 there were so many in game options that are literally 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.400 you couldn't find the game. There was like hundreds of 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:31.640 games in DraftKings and somebody's like calling me, Georgia Tech. 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:33.760 I can't even find it because you have to think 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:39.919 keep scrolling. It was unbelievable. Was a cornucopia buffet for 0:05:40.080 --> 0:05:45.520 college basketball? A corn ucopia buffet. I like it. Todd 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:49.160 is into college basketball. Heaven. Okay, how do we start 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:52.360 this again? Survivor? We go to Survivor. I lost, I'm out, 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.960 it's over. Are we done with Survivor? Talk now talk 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.400 survival But the thing about it, we were trying this 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.200 morning on a numbers game, mediocre first hour. By the 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:04.000 way we were trying this, we were trying to to 0:06:04.040 --> 0:06:06.320 talk Survivor because we had a lots of there's tennis 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:09.440 tea tennis tweets and then there's Survivor tweets. Those are 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:11.760 the biggest theme tweets and the Survivor. It's like, at 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:13.400 this point, you can't be like, well if you have 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.520 this team available, right, So it's it's tough to talk 0:06:16.520 --> 0:06:18.760 about at this point, this deeper to a season. It's 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:20.760 very true because it said who would you use this week? 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:22.400 I said, I don't know what the people have? So 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.000 how do you know? The cults are gone on most 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:27.359 of I mean, you're down to what you have left 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:32.040 A mall now a mall Shaw, my partner on odds On, 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.559 formally known as the Nuts, had two entries. He lost 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:38.320 one of them. He has one left good. But of 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:42.040 the top twelve teams in terms of record in the NFL. 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:44.800 He's only used one on that entry so far, the Ravens, 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:47.839 So he's a pretty good shape. He's a great shape. 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:53.080 That was me last year ranked never forget, never forget, 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:56.960 as my parents were ranked third out and there was 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:01.039 how many people left I forgot over a hundred. Yeah, 0:07:01.760 --> 0:07:04.559 so you didn't matter, Jared Goff Gilding. So I lost 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:09.080 on the bills. My thinking was, I think the bills 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.400 are a fraud. I'm going to use them now against 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:14.960 Jacksonville and then everybody's gonna crap out with him later 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:19.120 when they at least expected. Silly me? Was your only 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:22.560 other consideration the Steelers on Monday night? Really No. My 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:27.000 other considerations were New Orleans who didn't trust correctly, Baltimore 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:30.800 who were down for to trust him. I don't think 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.760 I was wrong, and then Pittsburgh that used Tony Creanti 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:35.960 staff to win that football game. I wasn't wrong about 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.400 that either. He has got to be out. He's got 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.120 to be out now, Todd, I know you were at 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:43.000 the game. Has to be out. That was the most 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:47.600 disgusting NFL football game I have ever witnessed in my life. 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:51.080 And I cannot stand people who say games are fixed 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.520 or there should be an investigation and all that stuff. 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:59.280 But that game was relentlessly bullshit like it was just 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:02.600 it was do you but you're right, thank you? Okay, 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.280 But that's what you do for good organizations, right, that's 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:09.040 what for good organizations. When you're a great organization, people 0:08:09.160 --> 0:08:12.480 realize that and they want to win, and that's what 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:14.880 ends up happening. And by the way, did I get luckier? 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:17.520 What with my Steelers and must three and a half? 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.360 I had no chiefs in the middle the law hell 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:24.080 broke lose it yet um one person didn't submit just 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:26.280 one entry. That's the upset of the week. One person 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:30.560 only one? How many left six eight, six, five h 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:34.120 two out two weeks in a row plus eliminated man 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:37.720 I said on on on Tuesday, excuse me Monday morning, 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:43.000 I said. It's in an order of what is upsetting 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.520 about getting crapped out in survivor losing your entry money 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:50.160 way down low. Third, we don't care about that money anymore. Second, 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.480 not being able to win what you hoped to win 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.360 at the end of the year, whether split or not. Second, 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.520 but number one by far is just not being able 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:02.480 to de guss it or have the mental gymnastics of 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:05.200 Survivor every year. If I could take this team, but 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:07.600 then this team has this game left, you know I 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:10.320 could use them later. That's the sucky part to get 0:09:10.520 --> 0:09:12.800 get about being bounced out. And let me ask you 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:18.280 this question now in retrospect. If you hadn't had the 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:21.600 carnage in week one, right with with the Vikings and 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:23.920 the and the Falcons, Let's say you had four of 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:25.720 your five left going, do you think you would have 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.160 survived last week? No, I mean all of them. If 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:31.440 you had four or five, you had five, correct, I 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:33.480 had I had five? Yes, Let's say you had four 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:35.760 going into last week. Would you maybe have used one 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:38.280 on Baltimore, one on Pittsburgh or would you have gone 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:39.760 all in with the Bills? But no, I would have 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.080 I would have split them out. But but my point 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:45.320 with Survivor remains, and I doesn't matter that I'm out 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:50.680 having multiple entries. Eventually you're going to lose all of 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.120 them but the last one because you're playing them differently. 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.200 So it's just a matter of time. You may have 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:58.000 picked Baltimore in Pittsburgh, but you're you have a rabbit's 0:09:58.000 --> 0:09:59.800 foot stuck so far up your wrecked um it's not 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:02.840 even funny, right, So good for you. I'm glad, but 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:08.280 you're going to lose those other remaining entries eventually, and 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:12.440 by losing them later, here's the other compounding factor about 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:16.680 having multiple entries. You aren't able to curate like a 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:20.040 Mall's good that he has that one where it's curated. Well, 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.000 that that's the one that didn't get knocked out. If 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:25.400 his other one was remained, I wonder what it would be. 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:29.560 So the later you go, the less control you have 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:34.280 over the one that survives. So oftentimes that's the other 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.160 trick it plays on you. The more entries you have, 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.880 the less control over you have over your last one, 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.360 because it's a random which one gets knocked out at 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.559 the end, if that makes sense. On a closing note here, 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:47.440 so we could move on. I just wanted to say 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:52.200 that our friend um e yeah, who who is in 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:56.720 everyone's estimation a thoughtful, reflective person and possible of changing 0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:01.680 his opinion, had so he had so hated the Thanksgiving 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:05.440 Christmas right, but he would have used Dallas on multiple 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.320 entries if not for Thanksgiving. Oh nice, so he said 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:12.240 to me in a great moment of epiphany, on on 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:18.120 on Sunday night. This is a wonderful, mysterious, complex puzzle. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:21.920 And I really appreciate those two three game windows. Now. 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:26.040 Now he loves and yeah, he's he takes things in 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.400 and he's willing to admit where he's wrong. Oh yeah, sure, Todd. 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:35.360 Is that the game? Okay, what's the what's the what's 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:38.840 the records? How are we doing record wise here? Well, 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:43.680 Julie Ice, funnily enough brings that up because he had 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:47.880 a blockbuster week last week, got in with a youth 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:51.960 fas state quarterback who couldn't prove the football whatsoever. Plus 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.000 seven and a half there, That wasn't the wrong side, 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.000 check that wasn't the wrong side. They should have won, 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:00.600 Mason crushing screws theme, they should even been behind in 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:06.320 the right. Yeah, but Todd's gonna that's what he does. 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:11.000 I'm not spinning anything you are here. I'm just saying 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.320 that Jordan's Love is not a quarterback. As we said, 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:18.439 New England got home with a very solid ncing win 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:21.160 and also under forty six and a half in the Raiders. 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.560 So you went three and zero, Gilly, you can't go 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.880 better than three and zero game? Yet you can't? Is 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:34.600 that two consecutive weeks for you, twelve and fifteen for Gilly. 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:39.280 Mikey went to and one with the Giants winning, were 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:42.040 even losing, but then he bought me in the head 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.360 the head Arizona San Francisco over. He got there with 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.520 forty eight with Holden McCoy and I'm still not sure 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:52.720 how that happened. And I had a horrendous beak at 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:56.520 one and two winning the under in Houston the Steelers game, 0:12:56.559 --> 0:12:58.920 which I totally deserved if it wasn't the rest going 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:04.199 for the Bears and Arizona. What are the records now? 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:08.280 I'm loving and sixteen, Mike is thirteen, thirteen and one, 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:11.840 and Gilly is twelve and fifteen in second place in teasers, 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:15.559 which is of course I'm still in first place at 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:18.640 six and three, Mikey is it is five three and one? 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:22.520 And Mike five and four's Todd Todd fixed fixure. Mike, 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.320 we can't hear every word you're saying, So six and 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:30.640 three for Todd five and what is it five one? 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:35.880 And I'm privy and Mike is it five and four? Um? 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.800 And then Todd Todd is in the last place in 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.560 the A T S. You've gained like four games on 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:43.439 him in the last two weeks. You're in first place. 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:45.720 You're the man to be today. I always say, if 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:49.319 I can go five, it's a gig walk here, Okay, 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:51.719 So let us be with Thursday night before we get 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:53.520 the best bets. And I'm not sure. Maybe the Thursday 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.679 night game is part of your best bets. It is 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.040 the Ravens tonight all the way up to eight now 0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:02.120 in favor of the Road Ravens at Miami. We still 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:06.240 have a questionable tag on two to A Tago VLA, 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.560 which is interesting because Brian floor Is on Tuesday said, yeah, 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.880 the finger is still an issue. If the game was today, 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:16.120 meaning Tuesday to A could not go, then yesterday to 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:18.800 A slapped with a questionable tag, and so we don't 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:20.360 know if it's Jacoby Brissette, We don't know if it's 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:22.160 too a Tago bywa. I don't know if that matters 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.000 to you that it did a little bit in the 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.360 betting market, because I think the news on two of 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:28.480 this week kind of did make it go from six 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.040 and a half through the seven to seven and a half. 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.600 So it means it means not a negligible amount, it 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.680 means something I guess to the market. But it's weird 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.760 because if Jacoby Brissette starts tonight and let's say he 0:14:40.800 --> 0:14:44.360 gets hurt the first play two was the next guy up? 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:46.640 Are we to believe that the guy who couldn't play 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.680 Tuesday all of a sudden would be a viable quarterback 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:55.840 with that same finger tonight. I don't know. That was 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:58.640 my first question. Does it the market? It did matter? 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:00.200 Does it matter to you? Do you have any lay 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.800 on this? I have? I have the Ravens and teasers? Yeah, 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:06.560 me too. Yeah, I think they probably covered that. It's 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.680 remarkable this hard boss that right, they've covered nine in 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.080 a row. He's nine and oh against Miami against the spread, 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.440 the most games ever an NFL coach has not lost 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:18.000 against the spread against the one single opponent. I did 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:22.480 not know that, Todd, You have anything besides the teaser? Like, no, 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:25.880 I think two is thinks, inset and fang from the 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:29.080 Power Rank. Anything on this game tonight? Yeah. I like 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.520 the Ravens. I love what Lamar Jackson's doing. I think 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:35.640 Miami is terrible. However, somehow my number only likes Ravens 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.720 by three on the road here it's probably stay away 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:41.640 from me, Um, you know, it's kind of the way 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.640 the way I kind of adjust for QB injuries, look 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.480 at what the market says about the players. But I 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:51.680 actually have Miami with Preset better because the markets really 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:53.920 adjusted on the whole team since two has been back 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.120 to actually have Miami with Presett better than Miami with two, 0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.840 which doesn't make any sense. So it's a very confusing game. 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:02.240 From me, I think Baltimore is good. I think their 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:05.120 defense is gonna better than we've seen. I think Miami stinks. 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.600 So I thought I thought I thought Jacobe Brisett was 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.760 better than this. I really he's like a statue. He 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.040 can barely move. He was better than this with the 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:19.320 Colt he was. I think the center being out to 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.880 factor tonight too, because I think Baltimore will get there. 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.160 I think Martindale will come with a lot of pressure tonight. 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.680 And either quarterback is a mobile You know two is 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:28.840 not mobile either. You think of him as a running quarterback, 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.240 he's not good at alluding to rush. Do you think 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:32.640 this game will get so out of hand that you'll 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:34.880 start watching Pitt at North Carolina? I was gonna already 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:36.760 because I love the over seventy two there that never 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.600 keeps dropping. I don't know why, but I like the 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.200 over seventy two because there's the reason it's dropping is 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:44.440 it's supposed to rain like crazy. Yeah, second hand chairs, 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:50.400 who cares? Bad defense is bad defense with those over 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:54.840 machine they're like that stage. Yeah, Ed, Can I ask 0:16:54.920 --> 0:17:00.440 you a question, yeah, macro question, what van intage for 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:02.800 home field do you give Miami and your number tonight? 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.399 I mean, I'm using about one point eight for NFL 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:12.679 this year. You know, the home teams are only against 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.040 the spread so far through nine weeks, and I'm wondering 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:16.840 if this adjustment down to one and a half or 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.879 two is is it still it doesn't seem to be 0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:22.439 worth much. Mike, did you see that thing where they 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.320 said that in the turnover battle has been way in 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:27.800 advantage for the roads. Seems so maybe a little bit 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.879 of this is a little luck. Okay. I've heard some 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.800 people say that what's home field advantage? You can't throw 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.560 it out. It's not like it's not like all of 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:40.560 us in the world has changed and it's easy for 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:44.600 a team to travel from Baltimore to Miami and play, uh, 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:46.440 you know, outside of the place that you normally play 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.359 there there's still something there. I haven't checked with the 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.800 number is this year. I think it's really small. You 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.159 have to include something. I mean, if you don't want 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:55.920 to include one point eight like I'm having, you think 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:58.080 it's a little bit lower. You know, it's actually home 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:00.800 field advantage is actually negative to seasons ago, and that 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:04.280 was before the pandemic. Fine, but you have to you 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.280 have to do the home team something. I just says, 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:08.639 because they're going grass to grass, so it's not an 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.639 unfamiliar surface. Do we think that Miami is going to 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.080 be really loud tonight in this and I think it's been. 0:18:14.160 --> 0:18:16.120 The crowd will not really be a fact. So yeah, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:22.959 there's I'm pretty sure. Yeah, it's it's it's mainly the 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.480 travel though, right right, it isn't And so it's like 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.800 that's why Seattle. Yeah, Seattle is good. They've been good 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:30.800 historic late. Let's not talk about them now. But they 0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:33.480 are getting Russell Wilson back. We think he's a full 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:37.960 participant today in their in their practice. But um, that's 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.280 what it really is. It's not the it's not the crowd. 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:43.200 We think it's the crowd. It's the travel to get 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:48.560 to Seattle that has been yeah, I think it's both right. 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.840 I mean, there was some interesting working scorecasting about how 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:53.440 rests uh impact home field had been engine You don't 0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:55.800 have to think much further than that Pittsburgh Chicago game 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:59.199 on Monday night. My God, to see where with all 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:04.800 those out we had him terrified. It's amazing. I went 0:19:04.800 --> 0:19:08.040 off on this on on Tuesday morning. It was, you know, 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:12.160 the the block below the waste that negated the touchdown 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:15.400 pass was you know, no one from New York called 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.080 down and said pick up that flag. No, just just 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:21.600 walking back fifteen yards. And then two plays later, justin 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:23.680 Fields gets roughed in a way that Big Ben would 0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:26.159 have had twenty five flags rained down on him. Not 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:28.000 a call. They have to settle for a field goal. 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:32.360 And then the then it was the Cassius marsh taunting. 0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:35.399 That wasn't a taunting where he said nothing in the 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:38.840 history of the nasal football. It is the worst in 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:41.679 the history of the National It's worse than the Rams 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:45.120 pass interference against the Saints in the in when there 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:47.840 was lawsuits about the championship game. It is the worst 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:50.359 blind by the way it helped. It hurt me at first, 0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.000 but it helped my team but still it was therd 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:58.720 how can you there? Horrible? Horrible? I went ballistic, I 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:02.800 went absolutely ballistic. And then Tony Currency does the hip check. 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:06.639 Uh he throws the flag. He like he held his 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.760 hand up like he hit a three Bradley Beal style right. 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:13.280 He He then in the in the pool and the 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.480 reporter pool. Afterwards, Adam Hodge asked him, hey, was about that. 0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:18.000 He says, no, it had nothing to do with that. 0:20:18.320 --> 0:20:20.119 It was all about the taunting, even though the flag 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:23.239 came out after the hip check. And what killed me 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:25.880 after that is that multiple people in mainstream media. I'm 0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:27.960 not gonna mention any names because I like some of them, 0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:29.960 but they were They were like, oh, well, the NFL 0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:31.840 is so thrilled that the Bears came back and scored 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:35.000 stop saying that it was the most brain dead ship 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:38.040 that everybody was saying afterwards. It completely changed the game. 0:20:38.160 --> 0:20:40.520 Chicago had to use two time out subsequent on that 0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:42.760 drive and Pittsburgh ended up with a field goal. It 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.960 changed everything that happened after that. I cannot stand when 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:49.159 they protect the shield like that. It completely destroyed that 0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:50.879 football game. And by the way, if you were watching 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:54.760 the broadcast, Brian Greasy, who will mention and I'm not 0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:56.840 talking about messing up on the crossbar thing, because I 0:20:56.880 --> 0:20:59.120 thought it hit the crossbar too. It did at optical illusion. 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:02.879 But I don't you have to fight through it. He 0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:05.040 that's the thing. He excuse me with Steve Levy, It 0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:07.480 wasn't Brian Greasy. Steve Levy should be able to watch 0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:08.920 the game. He shouldn't be looking at the monitor. He 0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:11.560 should see the ark of the ball. But Brian Greasy, 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:14.159 when when the Bears tied it up at twenty six, 0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:18.200 says oh, and and then there was an advantage encroachment 0:21:18.240 --> 0:21:20.199 penalty on the Steelers. He goes, oh, the Bears have 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:22.439 options now. It's like, what are you what are you 0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:24.840 talking about? Uh? And then there was the other one 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.400 where with forty seconds left, the Steelers are coming down 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:30.200