Speaker 1: Check it on Man no down Man. Thursday morning, one
Speaker 1: Veteran's day. It's the meeting of the book podcast Megapod
Speaker 1: for week number ten in the National Football League, Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: thanks for watching. We're live at the d not for watching,
Speaker 1: but for for listening. We're live at the d our
Speaker 1: home for the megapod. Uh and of course to my
Speaker 1: left the staples of the show. Let's begin with a
Speaker 1: gentleman to my left, the vice president of operations at
Speaker 1: Circus Sports, Derek Stephen's conciliary and of course co host
Speaker 1: of odds on on the network, the Vega Stats and
Speaker 1: Information Network, co host with them all Shaw. Hopefully we'll
Speaker 1: join us for a future Begapod. It's Michael Palm. Good morning,
Speaker 1: Good morning Gil, Good morning Talk, Good morning Ed. I
Speaker 1: thought that Brent Musburger was gonna be on. We've been
Speaker 1: looking forward to this for three weeks and then you
Speaker 1: texted Rent has moved, and I thought, who could Gil
Speaker 1: get to dampen this blow? Right, to lessen this blow?
Speaker 1: And it could really only be two people, either anything
Speaker 1: or Dr Bob. So you pulled it out and we
Speaker 1: got it. Yeah. By the way, I should also point
Speaker 1: out every week that you are also on the American
Speaker 1: Gaming Association Board of Directors. How was your trip to
Speaker 1: DC in Iowa? Well, it was wonderful. You know. The
Speaker 1: hot topic, of course the sports wagering with the American
Speaker 1: Gaming Association. But you know what, what was the controversial
Speaker 1: subject of this board meeting was the over proliferation or
Speaker 1: over saturation of commercials for these different sports betting operations.
Speaker 1: And like, we don't really get it here, Gil, but
Speaker 1: I guess in you know, in in the DC area,
Speaker 1: in Virginia, in Pennsylvania, and in New Jersey, it's like
Speaker 1: eleven out of twelve commercial you might know Todd, every
Speaker 1: other commercial Pittsburgh's Draft Kings, you met one dollar and
Speaker 1: you win two hundred. Oh. Remember that was the problem
Speaker 1: when Daily Fantasy hit, remember, and they cracked out over
Speaker 1: the place. Yeah, so we need to be a little
Speaker 1: more responsible maybe. And then you want to move back
Speaker 1: to Iowa, I would love to. And that's a wonderful
Speaker 1: place to way. It hasn't changed in twenty two years
Speaker 1: since I left. I mean it's just beautiful, all right.
Speaker 1: Do you think you're I love their cheers. By the way,
Speaker 1: have you ever been to an Iowa basketball game, Gill.
Speaker 1: Here's the creativity of the cheer. It was like this,
Speaker 1: I oh, w let me guess when you know when
Speaker 1: the natives have so beautifully named your state where I
Speaker 1: messed with it, they can they can spell over there.
Speaker 1: That's the voice of Todd Wish that from his mom's
Speaker 1: cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Dad, thanks for doing it,
Speaker 1: as always wonder how how do I know that cheer?
Speaker 1: Because Iowa was playing at one of those tournaments called
Speaker 1: Vegas I went to and they started. There was a
Speaker 1: kind of Iowa fans they started doing the cheer and
Speaker 1: I was like, is this seriously the cheer? I was like,
Speaker 1: I was embarrassed from State. I have to tell you.
Speaker 1: The Iwish State fans a little more creative. When when
Speaker 1: I was State scored their third touchdown of the third
Speaker 1: quarter against Texas, they all started channing sec sec. You know.
Speaker 1: I went to Tufts Division three college football powerhouse, and
Speaker 1: when we were getting beat by the Amherst Lord Jeff's,
Speaker 1: we used to derisively chant s a T, S A T.
Speaker 1: That was our way to get banks a little northeast northeast,
Speaker 1: northeast intellectual humor. That was that was the whole point
Speaker 1: of the joke, Todd that it was ridiculous. Thanks for
Speaker 1: acting like you got one over on me, Todd, wishnev
Speaker 1: the reverse joke. Uh, Ed Vegas here, That's who we
Speaker 1: talked about earlier. That's what we were alluded to earlier.
Speaker 1: The the founder of the Power Rank uh and kind
Speaker 1: enough to join us each and every year. Now we
Speaker 1: can say that on the on the megapod, ed, what
Speaker 1: else are you went too these day? Is? I can
Speaker 1: never keep a track of it? Well, I mean, after
Speaker 1: Mike mentioned my name in the same sentences Bob stole,
Speaker 1: my week can only go down from here. So I
Speaker 1: appreciate that. Appreciate that, Mike. I run the Power Rank
Speaker 1: dot Com. I write a weekly email, not a weekly
Speaker 1: I write an email newsletter with games that I've bet
Speaker 1: and uh sports betting tips and news. You can check
Speaker 1: that out at the Power Rank dot Com. I do
Speaker 1: the Football Analytics Show podcast and uh, I've been on
Speaker 1: football games. There you go, there you go. Cam Newton
Speaker 1: just signing now, just coming over the wire. Cam Newton
Speaker 1: agrees to a deal with his former team, the Carolina Panthers,
Speaker 1: which is Matt Rules way of saying I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sit here with p J Walker the
Speaker 1: last half of this season and endure this with Sam
Speaker 1: Donald out three four weeks. I would be surprised if
Speaker 1: Cam Newton wasn't starting Sunday. I think he starts, and
Speaker 1: I think if he plays well, even when Sam Donald
Speaker 1: comes back, Cam Newton is your starter. Well he energized
Speaker 1: that fan base. Yes he will, He absolutely will with
Speaker 1: his unique brand of I will fall forward for a
Speaker 1: two yards. He did that at Auburn up to a
Speaker 1: national championship. You know what I mean he did. He
Speaker 1: just leaned forward for three yards whenever he wanted to,
Speaker 1: better than what they have all the roster, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: I just feel bad for you guys in Vegas because
Speaker 1: on Tuesday night we had college basketball was back and
Speaker 1: there were so many in game options that are literally
Speaker 1: you couldn't find the game. There was like hundreds of
Speaker 1: games in DraftKings and somebody's like calling me, Georgia Tech.
Speaker 1: I can't even find it because you have to think
Speaker 1: keep scrolling. It was unbelievable. Was a cornucopia buffet for
Speaker 1: college basketball? A corn ucopia buffet. I like it. Todd
Speaker 1: is into college basketball. Heaven. Okay, how do we start
Speaker 1: this again? Survivor? We go to Survivor. I lost, I'm out,
Speaker 1: it's over. Are we done with Survivor? Talk now talk
Speaker 1: survival But the thing about it, we were trying this
Speaker 1: morning on a numbers game, mediocre first hour. By the
Speaker 1: way we were trying this, we were trying to to
Speaker 1: talk Survivor because we had a lots of there's tennis
Speaker 1: tea tennis tweets and then there's Survivor tweets. Those are
Speaker 1: the biggest theme tweets and the Survivor. It's like, at
Speaker 1: this point, you can't be like, well if you have
Speaker 1: this team available, right, So it's it's tough to talk
Speaker 1: about at this point, this deeper to a season. It's
Speaker 1: very true because it said who would you use this week?
Speaker 1: I said, I don't know what the people have? So
Speaker 1: how do you know? The cults are gone on most
Speaker 1: of I mean, you're down to what you have left
Speaker 1: A mall now a mall Shaw, my partner on odds On,
Speaker 1: formally known as the Nuts, had two entries. He lost
Speaker 1: one of them. He has one left good. But of
Speaker 1: the top twelve teams in terms of record in the NFL.
Speaker 1: He's only used one on that entry so far, the Ravens,
Speaker 1: So he's a pretty good shape. He's a great shape.
Speaker 1: That was me last year ranked never forget, never forget,
Speaker 1: as my parents were ranked third out and there was
Speaker 1: how many people left I forgot over a hundred. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so you didn't matter, Jared Goff Gilding. So I lost
Speaker 1: on the bills. My thinking was, I think the bills
Speaker 1: are a fraud. I'm going to use them now against
Speaker 1: Jacksonville and then everybody's gonna crap out with him later
Speaker 1: when they at least expected. Silly me? Was your only
Speaker 1: other consideration the Steelers on Monday night? Really No. My
Speaker 1: other considerations were New Orleans who didn't trust correctly, Baltimore
Speaker 1: who were down for to trust him. I don't think
Speaker 1: I was wrong, and then Pittsburgh that used Tony Creanti
Speaker 1: staff to win that football game. I wasn't wrong about
Speaker 1: that either. He has got to be out. He's got
Speaker 1: to be out now, Todd, I know you were at
Speaker 1: the game. Has to be out. That was the most
Speaker 1: disgusting NFL football game I have ever witnessed in my life.
Speaker 1: And I cannot stand people who say games are fixed
Speaker 1: or there should be an investigation and all that stuff.
Speaker 1: But that game was relentlessly bullshit like it was just
Speaker 1: it was do you but you're right, thank you? Okay,
Speaker 1: But that's what you do for good organizations, right, that's
Speaker 1: what for good organizations. When you're a great organization, people
Speaker 1: realize that and they want to win, and that's what
Speaker 1: ends up happening. And by the way, did I get luckier?
Speaker 1: What with my Steelers and must three and a half?
Speaker 1: I had no chiefs in the middle the law hell
Speaker 1: broke lose it yet um one person didn't submit just
Speaker 1: one entry. That's the upset of the week. One person
Speaker 1: only one? How many left six eight, six, five h
Speaker 1: two out two weeks in a row plus eliminated man
Speaker 1: I said on on on Tuesday, excuse me Monday morning,
Speaker 1: I said. It's in an order of what is upsetting
Speaker 1: about getting crapped out in survivor losing your entry money
Speaker 1: way down low. Third, we don't care about that money anymore. Second,
Speaker 1: not being able to win what you hoped to win
Speaker 1: at the end of the year, whether split or not. Second,
Speaker 1: but number one by far is just not being able
Speaker 1: to de guss it or have the mental gymnastics of
Speaker 1: Survivor every year. If I could take this team, but
Speaker 1: then this team has this game left, you know I
Speaker 1: could use them later. That's the sucky part to get
Speaker 1: get about being bounced out. And let me ask you
Speaker 1: this question now in retrospect. If you hadn't had the
Speaker 1: carnage in week one, right with with the Vikings and
Speaker 1: the and the Falcons, Let's say you had four of
Speaker 1: your five left going, do you think you would have
Speaker 1: survived last week? No, I mean all of them. If
Speaker 1: you had four or five, you had five, correct, I
Speaker 1: had I had five? Yes, Let's say you had four
Speaker 1: going into last week. Would you maybe have used one
Speaker 1: on Baltimore, one on Pittsburgh or would you have gone
Speaker 1: all in with the Bills? But no, I would have
Speaker 1: I would have split them out. But but my point
Speaker 1: with Survivor remains, and I doesn't matter that I'm out
Speaker 1: having multiple entries. Eventually you're going to lose all of
Speaker 1: them but the last one because you're playing them differently.
Speaker 1: So it's just a matter of time. You may have
Speaker 1: picked Baltimore in Pittsburgh, but you're you have a rabbit's
Speaker 1: foot stuck so far up your wrecked um it's not
Speaker 1: even funny, right, So good for you. I'm glad, but
Speaker 1: you're going to lose those other remaining entries eventually, and
Speaker 1: by losing them later, here's the other compounding factor about
Speaker 1: having multiple entries. You aren't able to curate like a
Speaker 1: Mall's good that he has that one where it's curated. Well,
Speaker 1: that that's the one that didn't get knocked out. If
Speaker 1: his other one was remained, I wonder what it would be.
Speaker 1: So the later you go, the less control you have
Speaker 1: over the one that survives. So oftentimes that's the other
Speaker 1: trick it plays on you. The more entries you have,
Speaker 1: the less control over you have over your last one,
Speaker 1: because it's a random which one gets knocked out at
Speaker 1: the end, if that makes sense. On a closing note here,
Speaker 1: so we could move on. I just wanted to say
Speaker 1: that our friend um e yeah, who who is in
Speaker 1: everyone's estimation a thoughtful, reflective person and possible of changing
Speaker 1: his opinion, had so he had so hated the Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: Christmas right, but he would have used Dallas on multiple
Speaker 1: entries if not for Thanksgiving. Oh nice, so he said
Speaker 1: to me in a great moment of epiphany, on on
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. This is a wonderful, mysterious, complex puzzle.
Speaker 1: And I really appreciate those two three game windows. Now.
Speaker 1: Now he loves and yeah, he's he takes things in
Speaker 1: and he's willing to admit where he's wrong. Oh yeah, sure, Todd.
Speaker 1: Is that the game? Okay, what's the what's the what's
Speaker 1: the records? How are we doing record wise here? Well,
Speaker 1: Julie Ice, funnily enough brings that up because he had
Speaker 1: a blockbuster week last week, got in with a youth
Speaker 1: fas state quarterback who couldn't prove the football whatsoever. Plus
Speaker 1: seven and a half there, That wasn't the wrong side,
Speaker 1: check that wasn't the wrong side. They should have won,
Speaker 1: Mason crushing screws theme, they should even been behind in
Speaker 1: the right. Yeah, but Todd's gonna that's what he does.
Speaker 1: I'm not spinning anything you are here. I'm just saying
Speaker 1: that Jordan's Love is not a quarterback. As we said,
Speaker 1: New England got home with a very solid ncing win
Speaker 1: and also under forty six and a half in the Raiders.
Speaker 1: So you went three and zero, Gilly, you can't go
Speaker 1: better than three and zero game? Yet you can't? Is
Speaker 1: that two consecutive weeks for you, twelve and fifteen for Gilly.
Speaker 1: Mikey went to and one with the Giants winning, were
Speaker 1: even losing, but then he bought me in the head
Speaker 1: the head Arizona San Francisco over. He got there with
Speaker 1: forty eight with Holden McCoy and I'm still not sure
Speaker 1: how that happened. And I had a horrendous beak at
Speaker 1: one and two winning the under in Houston the Steelers game,
Speaker 1: which I totally deserved if it wasn't the rest going
Speaker 1: for the Bears and Arizona. What are the records now?
Speaker 1: I'm loving and sixteen, Mike is thirteen, thirteen and one,
Speaker 1: and Gilly is twelve and fifteen in second place in teasers,
Speaker 1: which is of course I'm still in first place at
Speaker 1: six and three, Mikey is it is five three and one?
Speaker 1: And Mike five and four's Todd Todd fixed fixure. Mike,
Speaker 1: we can't hear every word you're saying, So six and
Speaker 1: three for Todd five and what is it five one?
Speaker 1: And I'm privy and Mike is it five and four? Um?
Speaker 1: And then Todd Todd is in the last place in
Speaker 1: the A T S. You've gained like four games on
Speaker 1: him in the last two weeks. You're in first place.
Speaker 1: You're the man to be today. I always say, if
Speaker 1: I can go five, it's a gig walk here, Okay,
Speaker 1: So let us be with Thursday night before we get
Speaker 1: the best bets. And I'm not sure. Maybe the Thursday
Speaker 1: night game is part of your best bets. It is
Speaker 1: the Ravens tonight all the way up to eight now
Speaker 1: in favor of the Road Ravens at Miami. We still
Speaker 1: have a questionable tag on two to A Tago VLA,
Speaker 1: which is interesting because Brian floor Is on Tuesday said, yeah,
Speaker 1: the finger is still an issue. If the game was today,
Speaker 1: meaning Tuesday to A could not go, then yesterday to
Speaker 1: A slapped with a questionable tag, and so we don't
Speaker 1: know if it's Jacoby Brissette, We don't know if it's
Speaker 1: too a Tago bywa. I don't know if that matters
Speaker 1: to you that it did a little bit in the
Speaker 1: betting market, because I think the news on two of
Speaker 1: this week kind of did make it go from six
Speaker 1: and a half through the seven to seven and a half.
Speaker 1: So it means it means not a negligible amount, it
Speaker 1: means something I guess to the market. But it's weird
Speaker 1: because if Jacoby Brissette starts tonight and let's say he
Speaker 1: gets hurt the first play two was the next guy up?
Speaker 1: Are we to believe that the guy who couldn't play
Speaker 1: Tuesday all of a sudden would be a viable quarterback
Speaker 1: with that same finger tonight. I don't know. That was
Speaker 1: my first question. Does it the market? It did matter?
Speaker 1: Does it matter to you? Do you have any lay
Speaker 1: on this? I have? I have the Ravens and teasers? Yeah,
Speaker 1: me too. Yeah, I think they probably covered that. It's
Speaker 1: remarkable this hard boss that right, they've covered nine in
Speaker 1: a row. He's nine and oh against Miami against the spread,
Speaker 1: the most games ever an NFL coach has not lost
Speaker 1: against the spread against the one single opponent. I did
Speaker 1: not know that, Todd, You have anything besides the teaser? Like, no,
Speaker 1: I think two is thinks, inset and fang from the
Speaker 1: Power Rank. Anything on this game tonight? Yeah. I like
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I love what Lamar Jackson's doing. I think
Speaker 1: Miami is terrible. However, somehow my number only likes Ravens
Speaker 1: by three on the road here it's probably stay away
Speaker 1: from me, Um, you know, it's kind of the way
Speaker 1: the way I kind of adjust for QB injuries, look
Speaker 1: at what the market says about the players. But I
Speaker 1: actually have Miami with Preset better because the markets really
Speaker 1: adjusted on the whole team since two has been back
Speaker 1: to actually have Miami with Presett better than Miami with two,
Speaker 1: which doesn't make any sense. So it's a very confusing game.
Speaker 1: From me, I think Baltimore is good. I think their
Speaker 1: defense is gonna better than we've seen. I think Miami stinks.
Speaker 1: So I thought I thought I thought Jacobe Brisett was
Speaker 1: better than this. I really he's like a statue. He
Speaker 1: can barely move. He was better than this with the
Speaker 1: Colt he was. I think the center being out to
Speaker 1: factor tonight too, because I think Baltimore will get there.
Speaker 1: I think Martindale will come with a lot of pressure tonight.
Speaker 1: And either quarterback is a mobile You know two is
Speaker 1: not mobile either. You think of him as a running quarterback,
Speaker 1: he's not good at alluding to rush. Do you think
Speaker 1: this game will get so out of hand that you'll
Speaker 1: start watching Pitt at North Carolina? I was gonna already
Speaker 1: because I love the over seventy two there that never
Speaker 1: keeps dropping. I don't know why, but I like the
Speaker 1: over seventy two because there's the reason it's dropping is
Speaker 1: it's supposed to rain like crazy. Yeah, second hand chairs,
Speaker 1: who cares? Bad defense is bad defense with those over
Speaker 1: machine they're like that stage. Yeah, Ed, Can I ask
Speaker 1: you a question, yeah, macro question, what van intage for
Speaker 1: home field do you give Miami and your number tonight?
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm using about one point eight for NFL
Speaker 1: this year. You know, the home teams are only against
Speaker 1: the spread so far through nine weeks, and I'm wondering
Speaker 1: if this adjustment down to one and a half or
Speaker 1: two is is it still it doesn't seem to be
Speaker 1: worth much. Mike, did you see that thing where they
Speaker 1: said that in the turnover battle has been way in
Speaker 1: advantage for the roads. Seems so maybe a little bit
Speaker 1: of this is a little luck. Okay. I've heard some
Speaker 1: people say that what's home field advantage? You can't throw
Speaker 1: it out. It's not like it's not like all of
Speaker 1: us in the world has changed and it's easy for
Speaker 1: a team to travel from Baltimore to Miami and play, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, outside of the place that you normally play
Speaker 1: there there's still something there. I haven't checked with the
Speaker 1: number is this year. I think it's really small. You
Speaker 1: have to include something. I mean, if you don't want
Speaker 1: to include one point eight like I'm having, you think
Speaker 1: it's a little bit lower. You know, it's actually home
Speaker 1: field advantage is actually negative to seasons ago, and that
Speaker 1: was before the pandemic. Fine, but you have to you
Speaker 1: have to do the home team something. I just says,
Speaker 1: because they're going grass to grass, so it's not an
Speaker 1: unfamiliar surface. Do we think that Miami is going to
Speaker 1: be really loud tonight in this and I think it's been.
Speaker 1: The crowd will not really be a fact. So yeah,
Speaker 1: there's I'm pretty sure. Yeah, it's it's it's mainly the
Speaker 1: travel though, right right, it isn't And so it's like
Speaker 1: that's why Seattle. Yeah, Seattle is good. They've been good
Speaker 1: historic late. Let's not talk about them now. But they
Speaker 1: are getting Russell Wilson back. We think he's a full
Speaker 1: participant today in their in their practice. But um, that's
Speaker 1: what it really is. It's not the it's not the crowd.
Speaker 1: We think it's the crowd. It's the travel to get
Speaker 1: to Seattle that has been yeah, I think it's both right.
Speaker 1: I mean, there was some interesting working scorecasting about how
Speaker 1: rests uh impact home field had been engine You don't
Speaker 1: have to think much further than that Pittsburgh Chicago game
Speaker 1: on Monday night. My God, to see where with all
Speaker 1: those out we had him terrified. It's amazing. I went
Speaker 1: off on this on on Tuesday morning. It was, you know,
Speaker 1: the the block below the waste that negated the touchdown
Speaker 1: pass was you know, no one from New York called
Speaker 1: down and said pick up that flag. No, just just
Speaker 1: walking back fifteen yards. And then two plays later, justin
Speaker 1: Fields gets roughed in a way that Big Ben would
Speaker 1: have had twenty five flags rained down on him. Not
Speaker 1: a call. They have to settle for a field goal.
Speaker 1: And then the then it was the Cassius marsh taunting.
Speaker 1: That wasn't a taunting where he said nothing in the
Speaker 1: history of the nasal football. It is the worst in
Speaker 1: the history of the National It's worse than the Rams
Speaker 1: pass interference against the Saints in the in when there
Speaker 1: was lawsuits about the championship game. It is the worst
Speaker 1: blind by the way it helped. It hurt me at first,
Speaker 1: but it helped my team but still it was therd
Speaker 1: how can you there? Horrible? Horrible? I went ballistic, I
Speaker 1: went absolutely ballistic. And then Tony Currency does the hip check.
Speaker 1: Uh he throws the flag. He like he held his
Speaker 1: hand up like he hit a three Bradley Beal style right.
Speaker 1: He He then in the in the pool and the
Speaker 1: reporter pool. Afterwards, Adam Hodge asked him, hey, was about that.
Speaker 1: He says, no, it had nothing to do with that.
Speaker 1: It was all about the taunting, even though the flag
Speaker 1: came out after the hip check. And what killed me
Speaker 1: after that is that multiple people in mainstream media. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna mention any names because I like some of them,
Speaker 1: but they were They were like, oh, well, the NFL
Speaker 1: is so thrilled that the Bears came back and scored
Speaker 1: stop saying that it was the most brain dead ship
Speaker 1: that everybody was saying afterwards. It completely changed the game.
Speaker 1: Chicago had to use two time out subsequent on that
Speaker 1: drive and Pittsburgh ended up with a field goal. It
Speaker 1: changed everything that happened after that. I cannot stand when
Speaker 1: they protect the shield like that. It completely destroyed that
Speaker 1: football game. And by the way, if you were watching
Speaker 1: the broadcast, Brian Greasy, who will mention and I'm not
Speaker 1: talking about messing up on the crossbar thing, because I
Speaker 1: thought it hit the crossbar too. It did at optical illusion.
Speaker 1: But I don't you have to fight through it. He
Speaker 1: that's the thing. He excuse me with Steve Levy, It
Speaker 1: wasn't Brian Greasy. Steve Levy should be able to watch
Speaker 1: the game. He shouldn't be looking at the monitor. He
Speaker 1: should see the ark of the ball. But Brian Greasy,
Speaker 1: when when the Bears tied it up at twenty six,
Speaker 1: says oh, and and then there was an advantage encroachment
Speaker 1: penalty on the Steelers. He goes, oh, the Bears have
Speaker 1: options now. It's like, what are you what are you
Speaker 1: talking about? Uh? And then there was the other one
Speaker 1: where with forty seconds left, the Steelers are coming down
Speaker 1: for what was the game winning field goal forty seconds left.
Speaker 1: Big Ben thinks he's catching them with twelve men on
Speaker 1: the field, he spikes it. It was actually just eleven men,
Speaker 1: accorded Tony CNTI, who knows, and and Brian and Brian
Speaker 1: Greasy is like, oh, that's big Ben just thinking, just
Speaker 1: absolutely just thinking. He didn't need to look to the
Speaker 1: sidelines and do that he knew what he was doing.
Speaker 1: Was like, no, he almost cost him the game because
Speaker 1: they had only one time the time. Anyway, by the way,
Speaker 1: is it Tony Granti. Is he related to Polly Walnuts
Speaker 1: or Christopher Multa. Tony Creni was was jnior high principle
Speaker 1: in California. But look, Tony Coarnti has lost his mind
Speaker 1: for two years now, and and because of his seniority,
Speaker 1: he's on every big game, He's on every primetime game,
Speaker 1: the Fox Game of the week. Do you remember January four,
Speaker 1: Bills at Texans, the bauchery and that wild card game?
Speaker 1: How they they kicked? They kicked off the Texans to
Speaker 1: the Bills. The Bills receiver catches at eight yards deep
Speaker 1: in the end zone and tosses Coarnti the ball and
Speaker 1: he called a touchdown. Then he changed it to a safety.
Speaker 1: The alternate official who's there in case someone's injured, had
Speaker 1: to come over and tell him that's a touchback. They
Speaker 1: missed the delay of game by three seconds. They called
Speaker 1: that terrible blindside block and that I mean that game
Speaker 1: was totally mangled. I said at that point, Corintie can't
Speaker 1: do any more playoff games. He has to retire at
Speaker 1: the end of the year, and he's in our face
Speaker 1: every week. Well that's because Christopher Maltasanti called him he
Speaker 1: needed he's terrible with erupting the past or two he's
Speaker 1: he's awful. They tackle around the waist and then he'll
Speaker 1: call they landed on him with Wade. I mean, he's
Speaker 1: just so bad and saying power Rake best bet number one, sir,
Speaker 1: what do you got? Yeah, well, hey, let's start out
Speaker 1: with Denver and uh so, I like, never mind half
Speaker 1: right and half it? What's that? Did you say? Denver
Speaker 1: minus two and a half? Yeah, or whatever number I
Speaker 1: can get right now? But um yeah, this, you know,
Speaker 1: I bet this yesterday morning. You kind of looked like
Speaker 1: everyone was going to go to three starting to see
Speaker 1: some more too and a halfs Um. I don't believe
Speaker 1: in the Philadelphia Eagles. I bet the Charges last week
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. I was pretty sure that
Speaker 1: that was gonna go to minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: I was wrong. So somebody out there's betting the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Uh and the Eagles are a team that my success
Speaker 1: rate numbers really hate, like despise thet on in passing offense.
Speaker 1: I want to look at a Justice success rate, the
Speaker 1: thirty one and past defense, and I think there's a
Speaker 1: little bit of hype on this team because Devanta Smith
Speaker 1: and Jalen Hurts looked pretty good in the second half
Speaker 1: against that charge Ters in that Chargers game. But essentially
Speaker 1: what I'm seeing is that they're breaking a lot of
Speaker 1: big plays and uh, that's unsustainable. Um, it's unsustainable. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be unsustainable for the Eagles. When you look at
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts's PF grades and a clean pocket, He's twenty
Speaker 1: three in the NFL. That tends to be the most
Speaker 1: stable metric his His great is much better when he's
Speaker 1: under pressure, which is which is unstable. So everything's pointing
Speaker 1: towards UH fading Philly for me. Um, it's not that
Speaker 1: I love Denver. The past defense has been good, but
Speaker 1: obviously I have a lot of concerns that Patrick stand
Speaker 1: is questionable and von Miller is no longer there. Kenny
Speaker 1: Bridgewater has had a nice floor for their offense. I
Speaker 1: like that they get Jerry Judy back, but um, I
Speaker 1: like Denver minds. I like Denver in the spot Mike
Speaker 1: you like him to, I do too. I think that
Speaker 1: they'll able to run the ball. Um. You know, the
Speaker 1: Charges were able to run the ball in the second half.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is bad. They're a bad defensive team. They're so simple,
Speaker 1: they're so vanilla on the fense. They're like what the
Speaker 1: Chargers used to be, where they've never changed their defense.
Speaker 1: I think Fancio's defense is getting healthier. I mean, remember
Speaker 1: he lost every linebacker and went through the stretch where
Speaker 1: they I mean he lost his whole medal of his defense.
Speaker 1: And they keep getting healthier every week. And just think
Speaker 1: of the fact that Philadelphia lost by twenty at Dallas
Speaker 1: and Denver was up thirty to nothing on Dallas late
Speaker 1: in that game. I think Denver is much better and
Speaker 1: Philly has to travel and play at elevation. Why do
Speaker 1: thank you? Why do why do the supposed wise guys
Speaker 1: above this Philadelphia, Philadelphia Eagles? I don't get it. What
Speaker 1: is that? I think they like that they like something
Speaker 1: about the line, like the period. They like the line.
Speaker 1: You said, they like the defensive office, the defensive offensive lines.
Speaker 1: I see, Todd, you're up. What do you number one,
Speaker 1: two or three? Number one? Number one from Wow, Todd,
Speaker 1: my number one is going to be the under in
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Ronnie against the New England Patriot. Why are you?
Speaker 1: Why are you guys laughing? You play nothing but totally?
Speaker 1: Have you played one this year? But am I not
Speaker 1: allowed to play totally? How to do whatever you want?
Speaker 1: But we just asked the question. The question has has
Speaker 1: a closed answer to it. It's it's not an abate question.
Speaker 1: When was the last time there's a definite answer here?
Speaker 1: I mean, I can go back if you want. That's
Speaker 1: not really six and a half last week? Okay? Now,
Speaker 1: would you like to keep me the under forty five
Speaker 1: or forty five and a half? I don't want to
Speaker 1: be a hazard. You tell me what I get. You
Speaker 1: get forty five and that half. Okay, I'll take the
Speaker 1: forty five and a half under Cleveland, New England forty
Speaker 1: five and a half. Um. I saw something last week
Speaker 1: made me think that the New England Patriots are getting
Speaker 1: there back together. Uh. This team looked like some of
Speaker 1: the newly good New England teams in the past. I'm
Speaker 1: not thinking they're that team yet, but this run the
Speaker 1: ball first strategy where they just start pushing people around
Speaker 1: and good defense, I think they're onto something I've had
Speaker 1: them forty one to one to win the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: last at the end of last week. I'm not saying
Speaker 1: you're gonna win the Super Bowl. I'm just staying forty
Speaker 1: one to one is ridiculous. So I took the Patriots.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna run the ball a lot against Cleveland.
Speaker 1: I think Cleveland's gonna try to run the ball because
Speaker 1: is gonna be a slug him. You know, cold New
Speaker 1: England type weather, run the ball, played good defense type
Speaker 1: of ball game, And that's why I want to pay
Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. I think Belichick has
Speaker 1: start to batten down the hatches. He's turning this even
Speaker 1: you know, he's molding this team into a winning running
Speaker 1: and defensive team, which you know, some of the Patriot
Speaker 1: teams were throwing around, like some of the teams were
Speaker 1: this run style with the defense, and I it looked
Speaker 1: really for good to the coast against Carolina. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go under forty five and a half Cleveland. Okay,
Speaker 1: I have a little trouble. You have a little trouble
Speaker 1: with about Todds. Mike is still in and out. Yeah,
Speaker 1: still a little bit out. You know, I'm on the
Speaker 1: exact technology. I've been on the entire season. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't want to tell you. Okay, my number one pick
Speaker 1: is the Tennessee Titans. What do I get on that,
Speaker 1: todd what's my number Tennessee Titans. Uh, there's uh, there's
Speaker 1: minus threes and minus two and a halfs. I'll give
Speaker 1: you the minus two and even though mostly three. There
Speaker 1: you go. No, I mean, as long are there as
Speaker 1: many two and a halfs as threes are. The more threes,
Speaker 1: it looks like there's a couple more threes. Okay, well,
Speaker 1: then it's a three. I'll take Tennessee minus three. I
Speaker 1: want to be fair about this. Um, listen, I I
Speaker 1: just did a second with this morning. Aaron Shots is
Speaker 1: gonna be in studio in a numbers game next week.
Speaker 1: Aaron Shots the founder of Football Outsiders. They have at
Speaker 1: Football Outsiders on d v o A, their proprietary stat
Speaker 1: where they ranked teams through which they ranked teams. He
Speaker 1: has Tennessee as the number four team team in the
Speaker 1: National Football League. Now, a lot of that has to
Speaker 1: do with the fact that they're negative in terms of
Speaker 1: yards per play versus their opponents. Uh, and a lot
Speaker 1: of that has to do with well, most of that
Speaker 1: has to do with that, because they're one of those
Speaker 1: his worst seven and two teams in the history of
Speaker 1: d v o A. I appreciate that. Um, I respect
Speaker 1: what they happen. That's ridiculous, right, let me let me finish.
Speaker 1: I believe otherwise about the Tennessee Titans, I thank you.
Speaker 1: I think that they are actually a sneaky um a
Speaker 1: team that sort of defies how football is played today
Speaker 1: by most teams. And yes, they don't have Derrick Henry,
Speaker 1: which is obviously the jury still out on it, because
Speaker 1: because what Derrick Henry did his presence is a sort
Speaker 1: of he sort of he sort of covers up for
Speaker 1: a subpar defense by by keeping the ball on the
Speaker 1: field and by by matriculating the ball down the field.
Speaker 1: They have a sort of get out of jail free
Speaker 1: card with him. We'll see if that is sustainable. Obviously,
Speaker 1: that game against the Rams, the Titans got the two
Speaker 1: will really was one two yard interception that the two
Speaker 1: yard line, and the other was a pick six might
Speaker 1: as well have been to pick six is and that
Speaker 1: game got out of hand. But I think the Tennessee
Speaker 1: Titans are a team that is actually facing the easy
Speaker 1: part of their schedule. Now the difficult part is behind them.
Speaker 1: The schedule really works out for them. Now I think
Speaker 1: they are going Are you ready for this? I think
Speaker 1: they're going to win the Super Bowl, which is I
Speaker 1: think they're going to win. Where do you rank the
Speaker 1: Titan right now? In your power rank? Number three? I
Speaker 1: have them five. I saw I saw a Football Outsider
Speaker 1: had fourteen. But the reason for that is because their
Speaker 1: negative yards per play. So but that's why we say
Speaker 1: a lot of this, a lot of these stats get
Speaker 1: moneyed up based on this. Aaron is very He's very
Speaker 1: clear about why his rankings are where they are. So
Speaker 1: like the Niners in his rankings and at Football Outsiders
Speaker 1: are ninth. The San Francisco forty Niners are ninth. And
Speaker 1: the reason the Niners are ninth is because, first of all,
Speaker 1: their year long ranking, so it doesn't capture the fact
Speaker 1: that they were playing Colt McCoy and not Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: last That's the first thing. But other beyond that, the
Speaker 1: Niners fumble luck has been horrific. And about their interception luck, well,
Speaker 1: I'm just saying their their fumble luck is so poor
Speaker 1: that it factors in anyway. I don't think they should
Speaker 1: be nine. I'm just explaining why certain things are what
Speaker 1: they are, and the average football fan looks at the
Speaker 1: ranking and goes, oh, this is ship. This is the
Speaker 1: most ridiculous thing. But there's a reason for all of it. Um,
Speaker 1: Alvin Camara is questionable? What about Frabel is a great coach.
Speaker 1: As far as this game. Alvin Camara missed the Saints
Speaker 1: practice yesterday. I think he is everything to the New
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. He is their entire offense. I've watched Saints
Speaker 1: games and I just sort of casually say they should
Speaker 1: give him the ball every single play. Uh, if he
Speaker 1: is unable to go, this line is a gift and
Speaker 1: I am taking that gift. Tennessee minus three. And what
Speaker 1: do you do about about like dirty statistics? Like give
Speaker 1: me an example that Jets game? There wasn't one statistic
Speaker 1: in that dirty Jets Gamesmia, How do you fix that
Speaker 1: into the model? I mean, you know my model. I
Speaker 1: mean I kind of agree with some of the stuff
Speaker 1: that you're saying. Uh, I don't know how do you
Speaker 1: fix it? I mean my answer usually is just trying
Speaker 1: to focus on success rate. Like the work I did
Speaker 1: this offseason shows that's that's the most predictive in season.
Speaker 1: Uh that statistics that you can possibly get more than
Speaker 1: EPA for play more than yards past attempt. So I
Speaker 1: try to stick with that. That's a huge part of
Speaker 1: my anality. Success rate for for everybody to define, sorry
Speaker 1: my apologies. A success on a play for an offense
Speaker 1: is if you get of the yards to the next
Speaker 1: first down on first down, second down, and all on third,
Speaker 1: fourth down. Okay, So, for instance, in that Jets game,
Speaker 1: they were playing so soft on the Jets and they
Speaker 1: were just letting the Jets go right down the field.
Speaker 1: Do you make the adjustments for the fact that the
Speaker 1: game was out of hand, the defensive Indianapolis was not trying.
Speaker 1: Do you do anything to take that the fact that
Speaker 1: they're gonna have all the success rate that they wouldn't
Speaker 1: otherwise would have had the team not been a blowout.
Speaker 1: I mean you can do that. I don't, partially because
Speaker 1: Indianapolis came back and almost covered in that game. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, the Jets almost came back and covered in
Speaker 1: that game. Uh, this was a game in which Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz was actually we got there was the good Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz as opposed to the bad Carson wentz. We saw
Speaker 1: the week before. Uh you know, I have Jets. Uh
Speaker 1: so part of that game. That's a good question. So
Speaker 1: the Jets for passing success rate, that's that's above NFL average.
Speaker 1: NFL averages about four six percent. Indianapolis was great at six.
Speaker 1: Like I said, one of the Colt's best game. You
Speaker 1: could obviously, uh you know, filter out a little bit
Speaker 1: of garbage time. I honestly think that matters, like that
Speaker 1: whole entire game matters because it kind of shows you
Speaker 1: how crap the Colts defense is that. You think the
Speaker 1: Colts defense really this is that bad or they were
Speaker 1: just playing soft because they were up by a million.
Speaker 1: I think the bad. I think they're really bad, Bill,
Speaker 1: What do you think? I don't. I don't think the
Speaker 1: Cults were in that huge of a prevent I really don't, Okay.
Speaker 1: I to me, it looked like they were they were
Speaker 1: ahead by so much they didn't care and they were
Speaker 1: just letting people right now. Maybe I'm wrong. I've seen
Speaker 1: a lot of games like that where they just you know,
Speaker 1: it goes prevent the whole second half, and oh maybe
Speaker 1: it's not prevent, but it's soft. Maybe soft, maybe soft,
Speaker 1: but it didn't. It wasn't full on prevent for sure.
Speaker 1: At number two, let's go with Cleveland at New England. UM,
Speaker 1: let me just get out there and say this. I
Speaker 1: don't think God j matters at all. If you look
Speaker 1: at yards per route, which is the what I'm looking
Speaker 1: at to look at receivers, it has dropped every year
Speaker 1: since his last year with the New York Giants, through
Speaker 1: all of his years in Cleveland. Part of that is injuries.
Speaker 1: Part of that is that Baker Mayfield won't throw to him. No,
Speaker 1: I'm kidding about that last one. UM, but he's not
Speaker 1: He's not a good receivers. He's not an a elite receiver.
Speaker 1: Someone's gonna sign him. We're going to see if he
Speaker 1: can actually do something with someone else. I personally don't
Speaker 1: think he matters. I don't think he matters. Is Cleveland
Speaker 1: offense and uh, David Joke has been great at the
Speaker 1: tight end position. Donovan Peoples Jones has been kind of
Speaker 1: a revelation. I live here in ann Arbor. I never
Speaker 1: thought he was that good at college in Michigan. I
Speaker 1: thought he looked slow for a guy that was supposed
Speaker 1: to be a speed burner. But he's getting done at
Speaker 1: the NFL level, and he's been He's been quite an
Speaker 1: asset for this team. I think last time, Gil, when
Speaker 1: when I was out in Vegas and we talked, I
Speaker 1: think I mentioned that I liked uh Cleveland under ten
Speaker 1: and a half wins. I feel like I've been really
Speaker 1: I've been wrong about that. Uh. The underlying metrics really
Speaker 1: do like this Cleveland team, both in terms of past
Speaker 1: offense and past defense. In terms of adjusted success rate,
Speaker 1: they've been great. I think the aspect that I didn't
Speaker 1: see was the defense. I think the defense had potential
Speaker 1: with Biles Garrett and Denzel Ward two two pretty solid
Speaker 1: building blocks, but they were bottom five in the NFL
Speaker 1: last year in past defense. There there at least top
Speaker 1: ten this year. When I look at adjusted passing success rate,
Speaker 1: and I think this is a good time to buy
Speaker 1: on Cleveland. I think they're a pretty good football team
Speaker 1: with New England. Their defense has been pretty good, but
Speaker 1: they're still uh, they're still struggling on the offensive the
Speaker 1: side of the ball with a rookie quarterback, you know
Speaker 1: they're not They're not taking a ton of a ton
Speaker 1: of chances. They are twenty when I look at adjusted
Speaker 1: success rate and I just think Cleveland's a better team.
Speaker 1: There's there's no metric that I look at. I look
Speaker 1: at a variety of metrics to make my numbers, and
Speaker 1: they all favor Cleveland and so uh and and from
Speaker 1: what I've seen of them, I think I don't see
Speaker 1: New England as a as a favorite in this game
Speaker 1: at all. So I took what I think I got
Speaker 1: Cleveland plus two when I bet it. I think there's
Speaker 1: a lot of one halfs out there that you get
Speaker 1: two and a half. Now, oh yeah, two and a
Speaker 1: half great, So it's actually moved, asked me. But I
Speaker 1: do think I do think that numbers come back unless
Speaker 1: Baker doesn't player or something crazy like that. Okay, Mikey
Speaker 1: number two, Todd, what do you have on the Panther
Speaker 1: and Cardinal? I have some ten and a half and
Speaker 1: forty four is pretty much the most common r l
Speaker 1: A the ten and a half here. I think this
Speaker 1: Carolina team is the Houston Texans. Wow, I think they're
Speaker 1: that bad. I think that that that no quarterback play
Speaker 1: and the defense is okay, not great, But I mean
Speaker 1: I I don't see a better comp to the Texans
Speaker 1: right now than Carolina, and we saw Arizona play a
Speaker 1: very poor game against the Texans and still cover eighteen
Speaker 1: and a half in that game when it pulled away
Speaker 1: in the second half, and they did everything they could
Speaker 1: to keep Houston in the game in the first half,
Speaker 1: they couldn't take advantage of it. I don't know where
Speaker 1: where the Panthers get their points. It's six at home
Speaker 1: last week, now they go on the road. The Arizona
Speaker 1: defense has been very good at advanced Joseph uh And
Speaker 1: and I think if they get to ten, they'll be lucky.
Speaker 1: You think Cam Newton starts on Sunday, even if he does,
Speaker 1: Even if even if he does, you see him having
Speaker 1: a big game Caroline as a must pay Yes, right, yeah,
Speaker 1: the ten and a half, it's probably gonna be it's
Speaker 1: probably gonna be twenty. It's gonna be seventeen predictions. So
Speaker 1: if you can get you know, seven, might as well.
Speaker 1: And we don't We don't know if it's Kyler Murray
Speaker 1: or Cole McCoy. McCoy did okay, they didn't think Kingsbury
Speaker 1: did a good job getting him in rhythm early and
Speaker 1: getting him some easy passes and he was fine. Cliff Kingsbury,
Speaker 1: the new short shot to the Coach of the Year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that's a risky bet, though, isn't it. How about
Speaker 1: how about Mike McCarthy lasting one week as he yet?
Speaker 1: How about Bill Belichick? Oh he's a good bet, right,
Speaker 1: isn't he a good bet because the people people vote
Speaker 1: for him if they would make the playoffs? Yeah? I
Speaker 1: mean he took this team and they prove every week.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. That doesn't mean you can't cover with Cleveland,
Speaker 1: but I mean New England has been improved. If they
Speaker 1: win that, if they don't give up twenty four yards
Speaker 1: on on on third and against the Cowboys, I think
Speaker 1: we're looking at them totally differently. They should be on
Speaker 1: a nice little run. Here, God, what's your second one?
Speaker 1: My second one, I'll give you the I'll give you
Speaker 1: the A side that I'm gonna we go to them
Speaker 1: into it. Yeah, well that was gonna be my third day.
Speaker 1: But I'll take I'll give you that one right now.
Speaker 1: The Rams minus four at the Niners. I got Monday
Speaker 1: Nights football. I do not the Niners team. I don't care.
Speaker 1: I'm shocked to hear that that the math people think
Speaker 1: that the Niners are the ninth best team. The Niners
Speaker 1: are not good folks. Jimmy Garoppolo is shaky as shaky
Speaker 1: can be. That guy throws four balls up into Dangerville
Speaker 1: and then and the defense guy like hits them right
Speaker 1: now hands and it's not I mean, give me a
Speaker 1: break already with this Gimmy Garoppolo. This guy is not ready.
Speaker 1: But I don't know what happened to this guy. He's
Speaker 1: not good anymore. And you know what, he always used
Speaker 1: to get lucky with the guys up. Now it's happen.
Speaker 1: I don't like this Niners at all. Let both McCoy
Speaker 1: just run all over you. That's embarrassing, know what I'm with?
Speaker 1: The Ram Ram look terrible on a Sunday I football.
Speaker 1: He's got to come back and show that they're they're seriously.
Speaker 1: I think they're ready to open Anna will Best on
Speaker 1: the Diner. I'm totally I cannot listen more than the Niners.
Speaker 1: I think Todd said he couldnot disagree more that the
Speaker 1: Niners are ranked nine. You can't believe the math people.
Speaker 1: I can't believe the math people. I can't believe what
Speaker 1: can you believe it? That their ninth best? I explain
Speaker 1: to you why I'm just I'm not I'm not endorsing
Speaker 1: if they're just telling you what it is why they
Speaker 1: are there. Do you think they're the ninth best steven football.
Speaker 1: I'm more concerned about your stereotyping. I think get painting
Speaker 1: with broadbrush. I think find math people. You're a mathist
Speaker 1: talking about I love math people. I'm a math person myself.
Speaker 1: I don't like dirty number and they dirty up numbers
Speaker 1: and they don't fix them. But you and I tried
Speaker 1: to give one example, like the Jets keeping and Gilly
Speaker 1: shot me down and said they weren't in the pre event. Okay, fine,
Speaker 1: I'm telling you the numbers cannot be always right the
Speaker 1: way they do them. Okay, need to fix it up.
Speaker 1: Let me just say this though. You go ahead, Yeah,
Speaker 1: let me jump in real quick like. So, I run
Speaker 1: some one set of metrics that's just data based on
Speaker 1: this year, which should give you some You know that
Speaker 1: that's not everything that goes in my number, because I
Speaker 1: do keep a preseason prior and I have some market
Speaker 1: data as well, but I data this year. I have
Speaker 1: the Niners nine, and part of it is I thought
Speaker 1: it was somebody else. Every math person has a ninth
Speaker 1: tied every math person. I didn't know it. Look, let's
Speaker 1: let's put the some perspective though, Like I can understand. Look,
Speaker 1: Jimmy g and the offense has been bad, they're eighteenth
Speaker 1: in my passing success rate. The defense has been good.
Speaker 1: They've been third uh this season, which I just think
Speaker 1: is unsustainable. You know, you lose Jason Verett the first
Speaker 1: game of the season. You kind of had a Hodgepodge
Speaker 1: back there in the secondary. And we know that defense
Speaker 1: is not as predictive as offense, and so you can
Speaker 1: expect that. I expect that number to address. So are
Speaker 1: they the ninth best team in the NFL? Now? So
Speaker 1: I think there's some nuance fair. You're a reasonable math guy.
Speaker 1: That's why I like you, ed. You're not like a
Speaker 1: lot of these guys who go to the end of
Speaker 1: the earth with their numbers. You know, they're not the
Speaker 1: ninth And you just said it, who are those best team?
Speaker 1: Like that? And and I think there's actually a good
Speaker 1: reason for that, because past offense is more predictive than
Speaker 1: past defense. Those are the two most important things, and
Speaker 1: you lose your best corner. It's hard. It's hard to
Speaker 1: be a top five defense that way. Right, So look
Speaker 1: and includely, they put these numbers up with only one
Speaker 1: game from their best corner, right, and so they're doing
Speaker 1: something right. But I just don't think it's this name.
Speaker 1: But Todd, you're falling. You're falling into the same trap
Speaker 1: as the as the most dunderhead person who immediately their
Speaker 1: brain because someone does things by analytics that they only
Speaker 1: care about analytics. No, we have a reasonable person in
Speaker 1: ed thing. We have a reasonable person in Aaron Shots.
Speaker 1: I gave you the reasons why in their rankings they
Speaker 1: were number nine. Right. By the way, the fumble luck
Speaker 1: is pretty off the charts. Let me just say this,
Speaker 1: They've recovered only four of eleven fumbles on offense and
Speaker 1: only three of fifteen on defense. Right, So that's someone
Speaker 1: that he already know. It doesn't factor in the Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray less game. You already said that, go ahead. Yes,
Speaker 1: So so the one the one aspect of the that
Speaker 1: ninth that I was telling you about is the points
Speaker 1: based metrics. And when I just look at that, this
Speaker 1: is the first thing I ever did about a decade
Speaker 1: ago with my team rankings that are essentially marginal victory
Speaker 1: adjusted for schedule. The Niners are twenty first by that metric,
Speaker 1: like that's baked into that ninth. So they're actually compensating
Speaker 1: for that with with us uh you know strength basically
Speaker 1: on past defense um and uh so yeah, so that's
Speaker 1: all baked in there. From my perspective, Yeah, still think
Speaker 1: ninth that's too high. I'm not trying to be a
Speaker 1: Neanderthal and say oh math is always wrong. I'm for math.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying that sometimes I think the math gets
Speaker 1: out over at ease and in this scenario, I just
Speaker 1: don't see how the Niners can be who's kind of
Speaker 1: leven t um. I will well, Tennessee is four. As
Speaker 1: I mentioned, I'll take Tennessee over the Niners. Keep going,
Speaker 1: you can do that, you're out. But but Todd, you
Speaker 1: what I'm saying you're doing and we'll leave it at this.
Speaker 1: What I'm saying you're doing is you are immediately you
Speaker 1: know you're immediately going to Oh the analytics people, they
Speaker 1: they're just math and nerds. They don't watch him. They
Speaker 1: probably watch more than you do. Right, they forgot you
Speaker 1: watch more than everybody. But the bath people have lives
Speaker 1: to say. He might have the right. Let me finish
Speaker 1: last year when the Bucks. The Buccaneers were seven and five.
Speaker 1: Aaron had them ranked fourth in his d v O
Speaker 1: A and everybody laughed at him. Everybody did he had
Speaker 1: him higher than anybody else, and who ended up being right?
Speaker 1: So I guess what I'm saying is it's the old
Speaker 1: Dean Oliver quote. The stats guy who's do NBA at
Speaker 1: ESPN maybe still does that? Are I see one game
Speaker 1: better than everybody, than than analytics, but analytics sees every
Speaker 1: game and we don't. Can I just say this? Then? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I say that Niners are probably better than what people
Speaker 1: think they are, but they're still not ninth. That's that's
Speaker 1: that's fair to me that, But that's I guess right.
Speaker 1: The ninth thing throws people off. And there's there's an
Speaker 1: explanation and he explains why. But yes, people immediately when
Speaker 1: they see rankings their heads explode because it doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1: They're so they're telling us that the Niners are really
Speaker 1: better than they look. And I can agree with that.
Speaker 1: I sree that the Niners are better than they look,
Speaker 1: But are they nine? I'm sorry You've got a bridge
Speaker 1: too far. That's all. That's fair enough, fair enough, Todd,
Speaker 1: what you are is You're not an anti math person,
Speaker 1: You're an anti model person. He's an anti person. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't like dirty. Could you be against math? I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm like, I hate sciences, like careful territory. There, Tennessee
Speaker 1: was up huge against the Rams last week. In the
Speaker 1: third quarter, I've been under the third quarter because you
Speaker 1: can see they were gonna let him throw underneath every
Speaker 1: single town and just run. My thought, the strategy has
Speaker 1: so much to do in football that I just think
Speaker 1: that the numbers get that's not much easier. Yes, and
Speaker 1: I'm not endorsing what I'm not endorsing. I'm just reporting
Speaker 1: to you why they are what they are. And it
Speaker 1: is reporting to you why they are what they are.
Speaker 1: This isn't an attack on ED. I love it. I
Speaker 1: feel like it's an attack on it. What ED is
Speaker 1: to you know, Todd, what ED is to modelers, What
Speaker 1: ED is to modelers you are to antidotalists. I mean
Speaker 1: a story that makes your point for everything. Everything. At
Speaker 1: the beginning of the show, I'm making a joke about
Speaker 1: how stupid we were at him. There turns it ya,
Speaker 1: you really got him there? Do you know what that means?
Speaker 1: I'm the only one pronouncing it correctly. Alright, ed. Two,
Speaker 1: I'm on the even get the format of your show
Speaker 1: right once every week? I do too many shows. Why
Speaker 1: you're here, Todd to keep us Okay, I'm on the
Speaker 1: I'm on. I hate to say this, but I'm on
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. This was the line that I
Speaker 1: did not understand when it came out. Um, and let
Speaker 1: me just say, Pro Football Focus has Kansas City as
Speaker 1: the number three team in the National Football League. I
Speaker 1: even't talked to Dr Eric Eager as to why, but
Speaker 1: I'm sure there's a reason. Maybe it has priors. I
Speaker 1: don't know, but the Kansas City Chiefs team that I
Speaker 1: see sucks at football currently, even in victory over the
Speaker 1: Giants on Monday Night, even in their win over the
Speaker 1: Jordan Love led Packers, they are just a impatient, bad
Speaker 1: football team. And the number three. I don't care what
Speaker 1: you say. Say it's not me. I'm just reporting. Who
Speaker 1: was Pro Football Focus? Have you heard of him? So? Um,
Speaker 1: I'm on the Raiders. When we did guessing lines on
Speaker 1: Monday with Chrissy, my line guesses were pretty much like
Speaker 1: dead on on most of these. And then we got
Speaker 1: to this game and I'm like Raiders by two and
Speaker 1: a half, and he's like Chiefs by two and what.
Speaker 1: And I know the Raiders have all this unquantifiable swirl
Speaker 1: that happens Gruden Rugs. Now, by the way, you say
Speaker 1: the Damon our Nett thing, that Damon Arnett, who was
Speaker 1: the other first round draft pick they had in I
Speaker 1: believe in what the same year is Henry Ruggs, who
Speaker 1: they overdrafted, by the way, shouldn't have been picked that high.
Speaker 1: He was involved in something. He brandished firearms and made threats,
Speaker 1: so goodbye to him. That's pretty wrong. I'm told that's wrong.
Speaker 1: So uh, every week it's it's something. And obviously I
Speaker 1: don't want to make light of the Rugs thing because
Speaker 1: poor innocent woman died. But it's just awful, just awful
Speaker 1: what's going around. But they're still better on the football field,
Speaker 1: even what happened with him last week against the Giants
Speaker 1: than the Chiefs are. So I'm I just have to
Speaker 1: take the number. I'm taking the points. I'm taking the Raiders.
Speaker 1: You know, I had the Giants on the show last
Speaker 1: week and in life, yeah, I got lucky. I mean,
Speaker 1: they didn't do anything offensively. That was the game they
Speaker 1: play solid defense. The Giants they hang around and they
Speaker 1: play my jo John Fox football. That's what they at
Speaker 1: number three. Um, so I'm I'm going against the Colts.
Speaker 1: Talked about why my numbers didn't like them earlier in
Speaker 1: the show. So the past offense is when I look
Speaker 1: at my justice success rate, that's significantly higher after the
Speaker 1: game against the Jets last week. Uh, Carson Wentz was
Speaker 1: a good Carson Wentz. He's not gonna play like that
Speaker 1: every week, and and the past defense is just terrible.
Speaker 1: Their thirty. When I look at adjusted passing success rate,
Speaker 1: obviously you throw up a little bit in your mouth
Speaker 1: when you bet on Urban Meyer and the Jags. But
Speaker 1: this number is a ten and a half. I'm in
Speaker 1: I'm in a place where I'm where I'm fading the Colts.
Speaker 1: So I will take Jags plus ten and a half.
Speaker 1: But you also think back that game. I think ten
Speaker 1: ten and a half was the number last week against
Speaker 1: the Jets when they started Mike White. Basically everything went
Speaker 1: that wrong for the Jets in that game and they
Speaker 1: still almost covered. So, um, I'm I'm going against the
Speaker 1: Colts here. Okay, but how would you like to go
Speaker 1: through life? Notice, so there's good Carson Wentz, the bad
Speaker 1: Carsonarts feel like there's good Mike Palm, there's bad Mike Palm.
Speaker 1: You know, sometimes he brings it and then you say
Speaker 1: things like Matt Stafford went full Carson Wentz. That's right,
Speaker 1: he did go full Carson wet legs. He totally went
Speaker 1: full Carson Wentz. Like it's the titles that is the
Speaker 1: man's legacy. Uh, Todd, let's go Todd this time, because
Speaker 1: Todd gets he complains that, he complains. If there's no complains,
Speaker 1: I just want to say, if you think the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Chiefs, I don't. I'm betting against it. Does think
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs are the third best. Sorry, that's
Speaker 1: that's that went into the modeling is incorrect. You have
Speaker 1: to put put and put in and get good output out.
Speaker 1: They put something in their incorrect. But but look here,
Speaker 1: it's it's called the preseason prior. The prior is still
Speaker 1: in there, and without a prior, there's no way you
Speaker 1: can make the Kansas City Chiefs a two and a
Speaker 1: half point favorite in the markets at Las Vegas. Like
Speaker 1: a team that's been pretty decent this year. The priors
Speaker 1: in there. That's why that that's why that she are
Speaker 1: still considered highly. The idea is that they're going to
Speaker 1: figure it out. The defense has been terrible, and we'll
Speaker 1: regress to league average where it should be. Um that
Speaker 1: that's the thinking, and the only way you can make
Speaker 1: Kansas City a favorite at Las Vegas is to consider
Speaker 1: that prior. And it's also because people love to bet
Speaker 1: on them, and that's why they never cover. I mean,
Speaker 1: they don't never cover, but but I guess my point
Speaker 1: is this, like the markets are agreeing with Kansas City
Speaker 1: being a lot higher than you think they are, because
Speaker 1: that's the only way you can make this number. Well. Again,
Speaker 1: I didn't say they they aren't better than people think.
Speaker 1: I just don't think the third. That's all third a
Speaker 1: little again out over their skis. They may be better
Speaker 1: than people think, they're not third. That's all I'm trying
Speaker 1: to say. Is that's so controversial. Do you think there's third? No,
Speaker 1: it's not. I don't think I I put them at
Speaker 1: the bottom of the top ten. But you're you're like
Speaker 1: straw manning us. None of us believe they're the third.
Speaker 1: A little too much pushback on that, particularly, I know
Speaker 1: you were rude to Dr Bob that one time a
Speaker 1: doctor doctor, I wasn't talking about head. I'm talking about
Speaker 1: he said. Pro Football Focus made the number. Now, how
Speaker 1: messing with you? Todd? See how that here's a serious question.
Speaker 1: How can pro sensitive I'm very sensitive. Can Pro Football
Speaker 1: Focus think their third when they say they have the
Speaker 1: most overrated wide receiver in the I mean the people
Speaker 1: on this network? Quoting that there are people on this network.
Speaker 1: He will not say his name. And by the way,
Speaker 1: I appreciate ed for taking the time to be patient
Speaker 1: and explaining to me why the math is saying what
Speaker 1: it's saying. And I happen to like he. All I
Speaker 1: want to say is I don't think the teaching from
Speaker 1: the three. And now I give my third, please, and
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a total. To Mikey, you can go
Speaker 1: to hell. Now. I would like my total to be
Speaker 1: the Jets over the Jets over forty seven or forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Do you guys help me? Jets
Speaker 1: for the record, gil moaned, first, when you gave the
Speaker 1: first total before I did, I was right behind, making
Speaker 1: it like it was all me, but like the pile
Speaker 1: on before, so you deserve you know, I played a
Speaker 1: power Forty seven and a half is your number, Okay,
Speaker 1: So I'm going over in the Jets Bills game forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half. And here's why I think that
Speaker 1: the Jets. This Mike White guy is not that bad.
Speaker 1: I really don't know even the even the other backup
Speaker 1: was in there last week, the guy who's been on
Speaker 1: five teams, and he was throwing it around. And maybe
Speaker 1: the problem was Zach Wilson the whole time. Maybe these
Speaker 1: other guys are Maybe the rest of the team is
Speaker 1: not that bad, and it was just a rookie quarterback
Speaker 1: that was folding them back. And now you put in
Speaker 1: some guys who could sling the ball around, and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Jets that have them offense. I
Speaker 1: really liked what I saw from them offensively, even in
Speaker 1: garbage time against the Pole. I like what Mike White
Speaker 1: did obviously against the Bengals. I like Mike White at
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky. Um. You know, maybe he's like a poor
Speaker 1: man's group Brees or something, but I like Mike White.
Speaker 1: And the other thing is the Bills all look so
Speaker 1: bad the last two weeks offensively. I just can't imagine
Speaker 1: they're going to have a third stink offense where they
Speaker 1: can't move the ball. A third week in row, I
Speaker 1: think that Bills are gonna move to football. I think
Speaker 1: the Jets are gonna move the football. And that's why
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over the forty seven and a half.
Speaker 1: And maybe it's a garbage time game where I get
Speaker 1: it kind of Jets points late like bo. But anyways,
Speaker 1: I like over Mikey Falcon. Give me Falcon, this cowboy team.
Speaker 1: I really questioned them and won their defense. Um, they
Speaker 1: have to create turnover. If they don't create turnovers there
Speaker 1: as bad as they were, Okay, if they didn't create
Speaker 1: turnover against the Broncos, you saw that. I think the
Speaker 1: Falcons are starting to figure it out. I think Arthur
Speaker 1: Smith take him a little while to get his feet
Speaker 1: under him. First year head coach, a lot more responsibilities
Speaker 1: than just being an o C. But I'm really troubled
Speaker 1: by this year. Ree Jones comment that he's going over
Speaker 1: the game plan on Sunday Mornings with McCarthy. Then he
Speaker 1: knew what they were gonna gave him whatever Denver was
Speaker 1: gonna do. And again, I mean, this is a remarkable
Speaker 1: what's going on there? Who's running that he so he
Speaker 1: said it like and he was blaming his play. He
Speaker 1: was coach. I mean, he said, I went over nothing
Speaker 1: should have surprised, and I ran it went over what
Speaker 1: I mean? On Sunday morning. On Sunday morning, he's meeting one.
Speaker 1: I was he meeting with Parcels to go through the
Speaker 1: game plans on Sunday probably he was meeting with Jason
Speaker 1: Garrett though, uh and doing this stuff. I think this
Speaker 1: team is going to come back to Earth. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised if once again they blew this game at
Speaker 1: home and the Falcons won this game. My nine and
Speaker 1: a half forgetting Thank you Todd, my Cowboys, my best
Speaker 1: Cowboys fan friend, my buddy first quarter, second quarter, I
Speaker 1: can't remember what it was he tested. He goes, I'm leaving.
Speaker 1: I can't. I can't stand this. He goes, this is
Speaker 1: so typical that they think they're better than they are
Speaker 1: and they show up for a game and produced they
Speaker 1: always do this. I do think there's there's also this
Speaker 1: thing in the NFL right because of the fourth down
Speaker 1: Mr Gas this year, which I think is largely the
Speaker 1: right way to play football, right, But I think from
Speaker 1: a betting standpoint now that teams are more willing, at
Speaker 1: least Brandon Staley, right, let's take him as an example.
Speaker 1: You're more willing to lose a game by a hundred
Speaker 1: now going for fourth downs in in situations, you know,
Speaker 1: in this modern day football than you used to be.
Speaker 1: And so some of these games are going to get
Speaker 1: out of hand in a way that they didn't used to.
Speaker 1: And I think the Dallas game is a pretty good
Speaker 1: example of that. They went forward on fourth down on
Speaker 1: like four or five different occasions and they came up empty. Uh.
Speaker 1: There was even the Denver fourth down where they blocked
Speaker 1: a punt and then they touched it. I mean they
Speaker 1: had bad luck too. So that game probably in the
Speaker 1: year twenty eighteen, is not thirty to sixteen, right, It's
Speaker 1: a much closer game. They still might lose. I'm not
Speaker 1: saying they don't, but I think for betters, we have
Speaker 1: to be aware that some of these games are going
Speaker 1: to be done by halftime. Somebody tell Kyle Shan this
Speaker 1: is the way football is being played now. He went
Speaker 1: for one down by down by eighteen, and then he
Speaker 1: punched from the thirty nine down to down by seventeen
Speaker 1: in the in the in the fourth said that the
Speaker 1: best fourth down call this week was Brandon's Daley going
Speaker 1: forward on fourth and short in a tie game under
Speaker 1: two minutes because he knew Dustin Hopkins would have a
Speaker 1: shorter field goal. And the worst was that one Kyle
Speaker 1: Shanahan down seventeen points early in the fourth quarter at
Speaker 1: the plus thirty nine points, I was surprised Tomlin tried
Speaker 1: a fifty two yard or only up by three there
Speaker 1: in that scenario. Was also that was kind of weird,
Speaker 1: by the way, just to say something about that Dallas game,
Speaker 1: because I had I had three college money line far
Speaker 1: life hide with the Cowboys, and as soon as I
Speaker 1: saw Denver get the head and started there was the thing.
Speaker 1: They were running it on the Cowboys. They were dashing,
Speaker 1: and that was very concerning. I saw Denver started dashing runt.
Speaker 1: I immediately took Denver to get off my pets because
Speaker 1: I was like, cowboys can't come back and they're gonna
Speaker 1: give up all this running. It was ridiculous. How so, Mike,
Speaker 1: I'm kind of with you. I was very shocked at
Speaker 1: the cowboys. We're getting run on that. Well, I see
Speaker 1: you Atlanta, and I raise you Detroit. I'm going with
Speaker 1: the Lions. I know, I know. Um listen, they have
Speaker 1: extra rest, they're coming off of by Pittsburgh has short rest.
Speaker 1: They're coming off the Tony CORENZI game on Monday night.
Speaker 1: The spread is eight nine. What is it, Todd? What
Speaker 1: do you nine? If the Detroit Lions cannot cover nine
Speaker 1: in this situation extra rest versus short rest against a
Speaker 1: horrible Pittsburgh Steelers team, then then you know what in
Speaker 1: a horrible and a horrible organization, it should be pointed out,
Speaker 1: we're a great organization where I thought you have eat,
Speaker 1: We're a great organization led by the Rudey's buddy and
Speaker 1: youns don't know what are talking about Detroit. I will
Speaker 1: be okay to lose this because tip of the cap
Speaker 1: to the Steelers so they can cover this game. This
Speaker 1: is the perfect situation for the Lions to cover this number. Uh.
Speaker 1: Jared Goff is the most frustrating human being to have
Speaker 1: a bet with. Believe me, I've been on that so
Speaker 1: I know. But I do think Detroit is good enough
Speaker 1: to to cover this, and begrudgingly I make them my
Speaker 1: third best bet. I kind of agree with you, Billie.
Speaker 1: The Steelers can't anyone by margin are not an offense.
Speaker 1: And you you groaned openly you hate that play. No,
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't hate the play. I think it
Speaker 1: is the right side. But there's a reason I didn't
Speaker 1: bet it, and that's because I think the lines are terrible. Like, yes,
Speaker 1: I believe they have maybe the historically the worst secondary
Speaker 1: the NFL has ever had. Oh so, so you brought
Speaker 1: up it's interesting for me to think about that. Jeffriel
Speaker 1: Kudo was obviously came in the third or fourth pick
Speaker 1: or wherever he was, and it was terrible last year.
Speaker 1: Gets hurt um and that was like I thought that
Speaker 1: I thought their secondary was terrible coming into this season
Speaker 1: with him. Okuda was on that two thousand nineteen Ohio
Speaker 1: State team that had Damon Arnette who just got released,
Speaker 1: that had Sean Wade who kind of fell off played
Speaker 1: at State last year and and really fell down the
Speaker 1: draft boards. Um, those guys lad like one of history's
Speaker 1: best college football is like best past defenses. That was
Speaker 1: what really propelled that team. Obviously had justin fields too,
Speaker 1: and um, and all those guys are just terrible. I can't.
Speaker 1: I think it just kind of goes to show just
Speaker 1: how pickle past defenses, right, Like, these guys came in
Speaker 1: so highly touted. Find Arnett was a little bit over
Speaker 1: overrated as a first round pick, but he would have
Speaker 1: gone at least in the top three rounds. A ton
Speaker 1: of success in Ohio State last year, and none of
Speaker 1: them have been able to reproduce that year. Who was
Speaker 1: the DC was Sho the DC that year? Ed? No,
Speaker 1: it was the guy that went it was Jeff Hafley
Speaker 1: was also also hasn't been able to create a good
Speaker 1: defensive DC since he left those guys at Ohio State. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they also with with corners in the NFL, you can
Speaker 1: go from I mean again, not to bring up Aaron again,
Speaker 1: but Aaron shots. I remember Dangelo Hall when he played
Speaker 1: with Washington. D'Angelo Hall would go from being like a
Speaker 1: bottom ten corner one year to a top ten rated
Speaker 1: corner and then back again the following year. So it's
Speaker 1: very fickle even in league himself, all Rightah know. And
Speaker 1: Casey Hayward was struggled with Tennessee last year, but it's
Speaker 1: been good for his career and is making a big
Speaker 1: difference in Las Vegas. Let's go to UH teaser of
Speaker 1: the week, Mikey let's start with you, okay, I like
Speaker 1: before Hugh, Oh you want to talk? I can't, and
Speaker 1: the game makes an gonna work, all right? Um? I
Speaker 1: like Ravens down, Ravens down to two, and then I'm
Speaker 1: going to take the the Vikings up to nine, Vikings
Speaker 1: up to nine and a half, okay, and Vikings to nine? Todd?
Speaker 1: Is that correct? Yes? Okay, thank you Kings at the Chargers. Ed.
Speaker 1: What is your two leg six point teaser of the week? Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, I'll say Baltimore, Baltimore too, through through those
Speaker 1: two key numbers and then Denver is what No? Wait,
Speaker 1: is that the opposite way through the zero zero? I
Speaker 1: think I want my Browns. Uh, I want that Browns
Speaker 1: Baltimore and the half Todd Dodd un. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the Los Angeles Raides because I don't think the
Speaker 1: Chiefs can beat anybody by eight and a half, especially
Speaker 1: because even they're a head late. Don't give up backward
Speaker 1: touching they and I'm gonna take the Ravens minus one.
Speaker 1: That's my teaser, my teaser, Ravens Raiders, that's exactly my teaser.
Speaker 1: That's exactly in my account, all right, final, that's why
Speaker 1: I mean, and you were in first and second place
Speaker 1: by a game and by a half game. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: say all perspective. All that matters is who's we're gonna
Speaker 1: win the straight up for three streets? Shouldn't we have
Speaker 1: a prize? Shouldn't we have a prize at the end
Speaker 1: of this, like a steak dinner. Someone should pay for
Speaker 1: steak dinner for all three of us. By the way,
Speaker 1: I would love to do that, except now I'm gonna
Speaker 1: need adds that I'm I'm down by a couple of seats,
Speaker 1: so I feel like I should get too steak dinners
Speaker 1: for everyone. About all the steak dinners you've already been gotten?
Speaker 1: I don't get it? How many times I don't get it?
Speaker 1: What about that many times STA dinner? That? How about
Speaker 1: that whoever loses it the against the spread asked to
Speaker 1: buy the other two guys a steak dinner. There you go,
Speaker 1: the go and has to travel to wherever they are.
Speaker 1: Not the teaser part, just the exaentst the spread part.
Speaker 1: The teaser is its own feel and the and the
Speaker 1: other one is its own Each one is a steak dinner. Okay, uh,
Speaker 1: that's beautiful. Final two questions. Final two questions, Ed will
Speaker 1: start with you, which is the big favorite and there's
Speaker 1: a lot of them most likely to lose outright? Baltimore
Speaker 1: seven and a half point favorites, that's a night at Miami.
Speaker 1: Uh Indianapolis ten and a half point favorites at home
Speaker 1: against Jacksonville. Dallas nine and a half point favorites at
Speaker 1: home against Atlanta, Buffalo, I hate you Buffalo Bills twelve
Speaker 1: point favorites on the road against the Jets. Watch him
Speaker 1: win by a thousand this week? Those bastards Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: nine and a half point favorites on the road at Washington.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh eight point favorites at home against Detroit, Arizona. God,
Speaker 1: there's a lot ten and a half or ten, let's
Speaker 1: call it home favorites against Carolina and then clear and
Speaker 1: that's it. Those are the Those are the Steelers. You're
Speaker 1: not first, Ed, who's the one? I think you didn't
Speaker 1: mention the Colts there? Right? Yes? Yeah, so I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go against the Colts. Carson Wentz those full Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: uh and uh urban Meyer gets on his second second win, second, yeah, no, third, third,
Speaker 1: you see you know why because he won't last. That's
Speaker 1: right there, knowing about that ghost. Yeah, wow, Todd, do
Speaker 1: you say Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers are right for danger.
Speaker 1: I mean the offense is not that good. Are our
Speaker 1: defense is good? But you can be you can run
Speaker 1: on him. I mean, justin Fields drives the length of
Speaker 1: the field to take the lead against the great defense.
Speaker 1: That doesn't sound right to me. Does that sentence sound right?
Speaker 1: When you justin Fields drive the length of the field.
Speaker 1: The story against you right? Just passing yards in the
Speaker 1: first half. Well, the same thing happening at Seattle. Steelers
Speaker 1: were head quarteen nothing in the first half and they
Speaker 1: let Geno Smith come back on the well another guy
Speaker 1: who's not that good too. I think the Steelers could
Speaker 1: get upset Cowboys again. I'm with Todd. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who I think are right for
Speaker 1: the picking. And if I were in Survivor this week,
Speaker 1: if I had gotten by with the Bills, it would
Speaker 1: have been a choice for me between the Ravens and
Speaker 1: the Steelers, because I had used all the others pretty much,
Speaker 1: and I would have gone Ravens. I would go Ravens tonight.
Speaker 1: I do not trust the Steelers didn't trust them last week.
Speaker 1: I can't trust the Spellers. No, I can't trust them.
Speaker 1: I can't trust that organization. Um No, it's agreed organization.
Speaker 1: You have the best organization football, the Rudies. Man, We're
Speaker 1: not like that, Dan Snyder not. Then get those emails out.
Speaker 1: We want to see what that guy said. I did too.
Speaker 1: Believe me. I want amount for more than life itself.
Speaker 1: All right, last question, Now, you had to bet one
Speaker 1: of these games. There's uh, I think there's four teams
Speaker 1: on buys, four teams this week. Um, you had to
Speaker 1: bet a side and each and every one of these games.
Speaker 1: But you had one free pass one game where you
Speaker 1: want to know part of on the side. That is
Speaker 1: a ridiculous game to even think about betting ed? What
Speaker 1: game would that be? Oh? Man, you know I'm gonna
Speaker 1: stay away from line Steelers, so I can't. I think
Speaker 1: the lines are the right side. But I can't get
Speaker 1: a team that I think is is that terrible? I
Speaker 1: ethically that like the worst? Probably, and and I was
Speaker 1: I think I forgot to mention when I went off.
Speaker 1: Their secondary is terrible. Probably the worst receiving corps in
Speaker 1: the NFL too. Probably, Yeah, I think golf's been fine.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm i'm, i'm, I'm uninterested in acting. Mikey,
Speaker 1: I really don't want any part of the Browns and Patriots.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think we find out a lot
Speaker 1: about both teams this week. That's a good call, Todd.
Speaker 1: I don't want any part of the Seattle against Green
Speaker 1: Bay Packers game with what quarterbacks are playing and who's
Speaker 1: playing and what's going on over there, and you know what.
Speaker 1: One other thing I want to mention, which I don't
Speaker 1: think I've mentioned yet, Jordan's love was not good at
Speaker 1: Utah State. Thank you, thank you for repeating what I said.
Speaker 1: Oh to try it, Mike, you try it. I guess whatever.
Speaker 1: I think the game that I want no part of
Speaker 1: on the spread would be jackson Ville Indiannapolis. I could
Speaker 1: see that going any which way. Any Naples could crush
Speaker 1: jackson moved cover. I don't know. There's about seven I
Speaker 1: could have picked. That's the NFL ED thank you, the
Speaker 1: Power rank ed fingh, the Power ranked out com dot com.
Speaker 1: That's the power rank, not just power rank correct the
Speaker 1: power rankings. Thank you so much for having chiefs on
Speaker 1: Power Rank. Do you really want to know I booked
Speaker 1: this up when you were going on your tirade. You
Speaker 1: really want to know it's either second or fourth because
Speaker 1: the math people can't be too far off. I'm going
Speaker 1: to explode in a minute a second. I've to say
Speaker 1: my numbers like the chief I've got the Chiefs the
Speaker 1: last couple of han't it's awesome numbers like him again
Speaker 1: this week, I haven't made a month. Uh. We can't
Speaker 1: hear you, toad again. It's all right, he says he
Speaker 1: can't even deal. You can't even speak about it, all right. Uh,
Speaker 1: and appreciated man as always proffing profiting p R O
Speaker 1: F E n G on YouTube. Yes that's my son,
Speaker 1: not me, but promoting your son. His son is not standing,
Speaker 1: has got to be better than the Chiefs ranking. Uh.
Speaker 1: For Mikey Paum, who's got to go do odds on.
Speaker 1: That's why we gotta get out of here, because he
Speaker 1: does the show with them all for everyone. Wow. And
Speaker 1: DoD Wishnef from his mom's cork addic throwing shots from
Speaker 1: his mom's cork adic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thanks so much
Speaker 1: for listening. Good luck with all your bets. Week ten
Speaker 1: and beyond in the National Football League,