Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea in the first full week of the
Speaker 2: year jobs report on Friday, Goldman Sachs coming out with
Speaker 2: a tepid look. Thank you David Miracle for sending that
Speaker 2: over consensus is one sixties. I don't know where the
Speaker 2: whisper number is. Michael McKee knows that, but they're down
Speaker 2: at one twenty with an elevated unemployment rate to four
Speaker 2: point three percent. Just one view of that from you
Speaker 2: on Azziisen team over at Goldman Sachs. We spoke with
Speaker 2: Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley today, wide ranging discussion, really
Speaker 2: really interesting, and one of the great things we talked
Speaker 2: about was just the state of the economy and the
Speaker 2: path forward here. Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 1: So, I think every year and there's a bit of revision,
Speaker 1: I suspect there is a good chance that we're going
Speaker 1: to see a bit more than I think in the
Speaker 1: near dart right over the next three months, that so
Speaker 1: called residual seasonality that we've seen in the PCE inflation numbers.
Speaker 1: I think that's a real possibility here that could throw
Speaker 1: the throw a real curveball for the FED, I will
Speaker 1: say the numbers on employment right, given how much immigration
Speaker 1: we've had over the past couple of years, and as
Speaker 1: the BLS tries to catch up with sort of their
Speaker 1: different surveys, I think we could see some more revisions
Speaker 1: this year. Twenty twenty five is probably the most difficult
Speaker 1: forecasting year since twenty twenty and maybe early twenty twenty
Speaker 1: one when we had COVID. I mean, this is a
Speaker 1: really tricky year for forecasting.
Speaker 2: That's a really important comment from a guy I worked
Speaker 2: at the Federal Reserve, at the Treasury, and of course
Speaker 2: his work at Princeton under Ben Bernanke a number of
Speaker 2: years ago. Further seth Carpenter here, I'm not so much
Speaker 2: like getting a crystal ball out and gaming the future
Speaker 2: and all the marketing blah blah blah forecasts. He taught
Speaker 2: about the risks ahead.
Speaker 1: You know, usually we do our year ahead forecasts and
Speaker 1: it's supposed to be a bit of a roadmap for people.
Speaker 1: But now this time around, it's more of a set
Speaker 1: of risks and how to start to create a framework
Speaker 1: for those risks. So for economic policies that might move
Speaker 1: the macro needle, you know, we break it down into
Speaker 1: trade policy, tariffs, immigration policy, fiscal policy, and then deregulation.
Speaker 1: And what might be slightly controversial is we've said for
Speaker 1: those last two fiscal policy and deregulation, maybe move those
Speaker 1: off the table for twenty twenty five for macro implications.
Speaker 1: Deregulation I think is going to be huge at a
Speaker 1: micro level and definitely for individual sectors in parts of
Speaker 1: the equity market, But in terms of GDP inflation, that
Speaker 1: sort of thing, I'm not convinced it matters at all
Speaker 1: for at least for twenty twenty five. Similarly, fiscal policy
Speaker 1: we're at least for now assuming the Congress spends the
Speaker 1: better part of the year extending the tax cuts, and
Speaker 1: so again it off the table for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: So we're really looking at tariff policy and immigration policy
Speaker 1: as the key factors here.
Speaker 2: Seth Carpenter of Morgan Stanley. The view Ford is simple,
Speaker 2: an eventful year. There will be a focus on international relations,
Speaker 2: the politics of America as we moved to the inauguration,
Speaker 2: But I really have to say we're going to stay
Speaker 2: focused on markets, on equities, bonds, currencies and commodities, and
Speaker 2: I have to say front center for me right now
Speaker 2: is gleaning the dollar I came in today my Bloomberg
Speaker 2: launch pad. I probably have twenty currency pairs, I'm guessing,
Speaker 2: and all of it was quiescent. Except and those are
Speaker 2: the kind of things we're going to try to bring
Speaker 2: to you. Except today was a Chinese y want with
Speaker 2: a two day jump condition. Weaker from the very managed
Speaker 2: trend that you see out of Beijing, you wonder as
Speaker 2: a weaker in Nby and Order. Here is a solution
Speaker 2: for the horrific real estate domestic finance crisis, and a
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Speaker 2: congested New York Bloomberg eleven's forree oh and up to
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Speaker 2: On podcasts, the best path to YouTube podcasts. This is
Speaker 2: single best idea.