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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It's time to look ahead to the

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Speaker 1: week of four to six in Major League Baseball. The

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Speaker 1: players that we're buying and the players that were selling,

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Speaker 1: and of course the Welsh and myself have a list

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Speaker 1: here for you. And if you haven't already, make sure

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Speaker 1: you subscribe to the channel. Make sure you also not

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Speaker 1: only subscribe to the YouTube channel, but our twitch as

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Speaker 1: well Twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros, where you can

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Speaker 1: watch leading Off live with me and the Welsh every

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Speaker 1: single Monday through Friday, twelve thirty Eastern Welsh. Obviously, early

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Speaker 1: on it's hard to make a lot of moves, but

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Speaker 1: we talked about that last week and sometimes there is

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Speaker 1: some panic that sets in. So let's start on your

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Speaker 1: list here of players that you want to buy based

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Speaker 1: upon some things you've seen early going in the season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's a lot to it. Like buying

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Speaker 2: and selling very early on is very risky because small

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Speaker 2: sample sizes create narratives that might not be real. You

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Speaker 2: can have really good, good star players at struggle that

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Speaker 2: people panic on that you can jump on, and in

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Speaker 2: my case, you're gonna play on that first side. My

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Speaker 2: case is a little bit more of like, I think

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Speaker 2: this player has been solid, and I really like what

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Speaker 2: I see, and I think there might be more in

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Speaker 2: the tank, and I'm not sure if the early on

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Speaker 2: goes have changed the perception of this player. So Dylan

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Speaker 2: Cees is a player that I am taking a look

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Speaker 2: at who had a phenomenal first start where he was

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Speaker 2: just mowing everybody down against the I think that was

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Speaker 2: looking here. That was against the A's, which you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of easy to do. Had the twelve strikeout game,

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Speaker 2: was a little bit wonkier against the Blue Jays walk three,

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Speaker 2: ended up striking out six. So he's got like a

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Speaker 2: high two s ERA. But I will tell you the

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Speaker 2: new repertoire from Dylan Cees is what has got me

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Speaker 2: kind of excited here. You know, he's always been a

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Speaker 2: streaky guy. We've always seen big strikeouts, none of that.

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Speaker 2: It's like a big shock when you go and take

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Speaker 2: a look at the long turn. You know, twenty nine

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Speaker 2: percent k percentage kind of across the board. Unfortunately he

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Speaker 2: always walks guys. He's at eleven percent right now because

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Speaker 2: of small sample size. But my focus has been this

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Speaker 2: new added change up. So his pitch mix change this

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Speaker 2: year went from last year for seam slider, knuckle, curve,

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Speaker 2: and then just this small little offering, so three pitches

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Speaker 2: to a four pitch arsenal where he is now throwing

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Speaker 2: his slider more than anything. He's going four seam knuckle

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Speaker 2: and then the change up, and the change up is

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Speaker 2: creating a high amount of out of zone whiffs. He's

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Speaker 2: up there as far as starting pitchers go of a

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Speaker 2: huge increase in out of zone whiffs, which are going

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Speaker 2: to be phenomenal for him. The slider looks good, it's

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Speaker 2: got a sixty two percent whiff rate. The changeup has

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Speaker 2: an eighty percent whiff rate, and he's having to rely

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Speaker 2: a little bit less on the fastball, which he's still

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Speaker 2: pumping at ninety eight miles per hour. By the way,

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Speaker 2: that is a full mile proer harder than he did

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Speaker 2: last year. So we'll see what the small sample size

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Speaker 2: has changed. But my main point here is this changeup,

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Speaker 2: I think is especially if it's used more or is

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Speaker 2: going to create more strikeouts, It's going to give him

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Speaker 2: more offerings, more trustworthy set of pitches to go to.

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Speaker 2: And as long as he's throwing strikes or even in

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Speaker 2: that zone, I don't think. I don't think he's going

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Speaker 2: to be a problem throwing sliders and more predominant set

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Speaker 2: of pitches. And we saw like Hunter Green do this

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Speaker 2: since see huge, huge success. So my main point here

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Speaker 2: is like I think Dylan Ceese has been a solid,

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Speaker 2: like in the twenties type of pitcher that I think

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Speaker 2: he has a lot more upside, and I think as

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Speaker 2: the season goes on, he's going to maintain himself into

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Speaker 2: potentially being a top easy, top fifteen starting pitcher. So

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Speaker 2: I just think you can get him for just a

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Speaker 2: whatever type of cost. He's not struggling, he's not dominating.

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Speaker 2: He's just a picture I want to try to go

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Speaker 2: acquire right now at relative me interests from other owners,

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Speaker 2: They're like, oh, okay, I could get rid of him

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Speaker 2: because I think there's a lot more upsides. I really

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Speaker 2: like Dylan sees right now.

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Speaker 1: And a guy who's been incredibly durable over the last

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Speaker 1: five years too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, great point.

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Speaker 1: That's that's saying something there. It's like him and Logan

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Speaker 1: Webb like those are the guys, and a framber Valadez

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Speaker 1: is like a handful of guys You're like, yeah, those

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Speaker 1: guys are going to make all their start and they're

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Speaker 1: going to show up for their team and for your

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Speaker 1: fantasy team as well. My buye this week is an

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Speaker 1: easy one. It's Nick Kurtz, and I feel like sometimes

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Speaker 1: when there's a new player that comes on the scene

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Speaker 1: and then it is thrust into that early like second

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Speaker 1: or even first round value, and they don't get off

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Speaker 1: to a good start, people start to panic a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm not saying you can get him for nothing,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not really worried about Nick Kurtz. I think

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Speaker 1: it was just a bad start to the week. His

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Speaker 1: OBEP is still a three to sixty. On Sunday, he

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Speaker 1: had a nice day, two for three, stole a bass,

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Speaker 1: so obviously I think he's coming out of it a

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Speaker 1: little bit. This week, he travels to Yankee Stadium, a

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Speaker 1: great place for left handed power. I think Nick Kurtz

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Speaker 1: is going to find himself on this New York swing too.

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Speaker 1: They play the Yankees and then the Mets later on

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Speaker 1: the week, and although the Mets and Yankees pitching has

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Speaker 1: been very good, I still think this opportunity for Nick

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Speaker 1: Kurtz to really start to find his footing. Again, we

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Speaker 1: know what kind of power he has. The Athletics collectively

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Speaker 1: have struggled a little bit offensively out of the gate.

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Speaker 1: They still play in a really good ballpark for them,

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Speaker 1: it's a very positive atmosphere. So I'm not worried about

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Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz at all. If anybody is, I would go

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Speaker 1: after him. All Peede a Lonzo get off to a

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Speaker 1: slow start this year too, so the first base kind

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Speaker 1: of top guys quote unquote not the greatest out of

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Speaker 1: the gate so far, for guys like Nick Kurtz and

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Speaker 1: guys like Pee Alonzo. But for me, Nick Kurtz is

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Speaker 1: that big target. For me, that's the guy that I

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Speaker 1: really want to go after here because I still believe

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Speaker 1: in the player. I understand he struck out some, but again,

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Speaker 1: the OEP still good. He's making some contact, He's got

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Speaker 1: three zero eight bab it, Like, I'm just not too

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Speaker 1: Would Kurtz turn things around?

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Speaker 2: Would you pay like market cost value, like draft equity value,

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Speaker 2: like second round pick, because okay, so I think that's

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Speaker 2: an important key to prove that you really are a

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Speaker 2: buyer on him, is if you would pay the draft equity,

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Speaker 2: because like deservedly you would want a discount because he's

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Speaker 2: striking out forty eight percent of the time and you

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Speaker 2: can't hit anything right now. But logically you are going

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Speaker 2: to get almost at no discount whatsoever, So you're gonna

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Speaker 2: have to pay around cost. And if you're willing to

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Speaker 2: pay that relative value, then I think you really are

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Speaker 2: holding true to like this is someone you do believe in.

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Speaker 1: I personally hold that that's a great question. Ushin Welsh.

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Speaker 1: I hold the draft cost or value, whatever you want

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Speaker 1: to call it, in through April. After we turn the

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Speaker 1: page through April, all bets are off for me. I

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Speaker 1: still think you give everybody one month and evaluate me.

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Speaker 1: It's still at the end of April. There's certain guys

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Speaker 1: that I'd probably be like, yeah, still interested in this guy.

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Speaker 1: Bad month is not going to scare me off, or

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Speaker 1: a bad month might make me want a player even more.

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Speaker 1: But I think that after you turn the page into

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Speaker 1: May is when you throw stuff out. The one draft

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Speaker 1: equity goes out the window there. But for the month

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Speaker 1: of April, it's very much something that I want to

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Speaker 1: not only look for, but I want to reinforce too.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's an important statement to make here,

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Speaker 1: all Right, let's flip the script here to some of

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Speaker 1: the players that we are considering selling, and for me,

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Speaker 1: the first one off that board here is Zach Wheeler.

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Speaker 1: Now it's not necessarily a cell high, but it is

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Speaker 1: a cell for me because we know the history of

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Speaker 1: the thoracic outlet syndrome has not been kind to many

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Speaker 1: a pitcher. I understand this is a different version of it.

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Speaker 1: I've been told it's not as serious. It's something that

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Speaker 1: doctors feel like he can get back on them to

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Speaker 1: be Okay, Okay, that's all great, and that's all fine

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Speaker 1: and dandy. Here's the big problem that I have right

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Speaker 1: now is that Zach Wheeler already, when you're doing these

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Speaker 1: minor league rehab assignments, five runs over three innings on Friday.

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Speaker 1: That's not a great outing. That's not a guy that

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Speaker 1: looks really sharp to me. So there's a combination Welsh

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Speaker 1: of I'm concerned about the injury, I'm concerned about how

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Speaker 1: long it's going to take him to get back, and

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Speaker 1: then there's that still that little glimmer for me that

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Speaker 1: I'm still concerned of does he get back to being

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Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler? And then how long does it take him

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Speaker 1: if ever to get there. Those are a lot of

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Speaker 1: questions I have, and I think what Zach Wheeler has

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Speaker 1: going for him, especially for teams that have already lost

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Speaker 1: some pitching, like if you have Kate Horton or Hunter Brown,

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Speaker 1: you know, teams are already lost some pitching. A name

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Speaker 1: like Zach Wheeler I still think can bring on some

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Speaker 1: quality return back. Sure there's risk in it, but I

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Speaker 1: still feel like the name brand value of Zach Wheeler

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Speaker 1: has weight in the trade market, and I would investigate

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Speaker 1: what that is because I still say there's too many questions,

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Speaker 1: not enough answers when it comes to Wheeler's value in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six for me personally, so I kicked the

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Speaker 1: tires on some of those deals right now because I

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Speaker 1: don't love what I've seen so far in the rehab starts.

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Speaker 1: I don't love the injury itself. Going into the season,

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Speaker 1: I was a fade on him. So I'm going to

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Speaker 1: continue to reinforce that evaluation that I made during draft

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Speaker 1: season of Zach Wheeler to kind of see what I

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Speaker 1: can get for him now after some of these early

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Speaker 1: pitching injuries have hit some teams, and also some of

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Speaker 1: these guys, you know, kind of come out now. The

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Speaker 1: jackliders of the world. We talked about on yesterday's leading off.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the Code I Senga performance, the Kyle

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Speaker 1: Harrison performance. There's a lot of interesting pitchers here that

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Speaker 1: have gotten off to a good start that I think

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Speaker 1: can help you in April and May, and I don't

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Speaker 1: know when Zach Wheeler can help you. Well, you have

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Speaker 1: any thoughts on Wheeler before we get to your guy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not with you on it because I was

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Speaker 2: a drafter of Zach Wheeler. I don't necessarily care so

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Speaker 2: much about the results of a triple A start or

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Speaker 2: anything like that. I do care and pay attention to

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Speaker 2: the velocity stuff down too.

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Speaker 1: It was down a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit from his last start. That's something to watch. He

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Speaker 2: kind of noted it. He was pretty I mean, as

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Speaker 2: I think most would be. He was relatively dismissive of it.

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Speaker 2: I want to see what this next one looks like,

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Speaker 2: because like this is this is a serious return. Maybe

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Speaker 2: they slightly were pushing him a little bit. You know

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Speaker 2: that he's going to maybe need one or two more start,

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Speaker 2: so you're gonna want to have him go through. But

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Speaker 2: I guess my main point would be that, like, the

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Speaker 2: results have not created a value jump for Zach Wheeler,

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Speaker 2: and you already paid a relatively low cost. You paid

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Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred. Maybe you got him in

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Speaker 2: the one twenties or one forties or something like that,

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Speaker 2: and that was already a low return for the upside

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Speaker 2: of what could be a top ten pitcher. The results.

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Speaker 2: The only thing that's like boosted him in value has

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Speaker 2: been the timeline. But now you're looking at a spot

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Speaker 2: where he just got kind of beat up at TRIPAA.

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Speaker 2: That's not going to create a great like trade market value.

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Speaker 2: So unless you think that he is going to completely

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Speaker 2: implode and the and the villa will never come back

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Speaker 2: and it's going to be an absolutely rough year, then

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Speaker 2: I think what you're doing is you're trading for like

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Speaker 2: post one hundred val and I don't think that makes

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Speaker 2: sense personally for Zach Wheeler because of the upside. So

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait on it. I'm gonna see what this

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Speaker 2: next start looks like. I'm gonna hope there's gonna be

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Speaker 2: some velo uptakes. Maybe I will lose an opportunity, and

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Speaker 2: that could be something that you could argue that I

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Speaker 2: will lose my trade window, and I'll have to take.

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Speaker 1: Argument, but I'm willing to do an I'm really have

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Speaker 1: that's fair, all right, who's the guy that you're looking

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Speaker 1: to sell here? Early on in major.

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Speaker 2: League business, mine is much less sexy. These were been

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Speaker 2: some sexy names. I want to tell you this. I

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Speaker 2: really get hung up in this early onset of like

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Speaker 2: you go and look and you look at like, all right,

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Speaker 2: who is lowered? You know his lower v low who

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Speaker 2: has lower batspeed? This, that and the other thing, and

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Speaker 2: it's like the sample sizes are so low that it's

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Speaker 2: really difficult to pick and choose and selling out on

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Speaker 2: a player of like high name value, I just think

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Speaker 2: it's impossible to do. But in the nature of what

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Speaker 2: we're doing here, we actually talked about this on Leaning

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Speaker 2: Off and it kind of inspired me to pick this player.

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Speaker 2: This isn't a player that a lot of people were drafting.

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Speaker 2: I think he's a very popular picked up player as

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Speaker 2: of recent and I'm gonna put him on the cell market.

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Speaker 2: Because of a breakdown, we ended up doing un leading

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Speaker 2: off and I'm gonna pick Kyle Harrison. So obviously Kyle Harrison,

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Speaker 2: a smaller name, might still be available in some leagues.

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Speaker 2: But you asked this really great question on the show

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Speaker 2: where you brought up all these pitchers, you know, who

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Speaker 2: do we believe lesson? And we were kind of going

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Speaker 2: through the motions and when we got to Kyle Harrison,

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Speaker 2: the thing that stood out in like, he's had some

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Speaker 2: like solid success so far and two starts, a two

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Speaker 2: six twenty ra more strikeouts than innings, pitch to sub

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Speaker 2: one whip, you kind of love to see it. All

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Speaker 2: the walks are still up there. The expected era is

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Speaker 2: a run higher. But one of the things that really

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Speaker 2: stood out to me was is what he's getting away

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Speaker 2: with with his fastball, And I just I kind of

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Speaker 2: just don't buy it right now. Thirty four percent whiff

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Speaker 2: rate on his four seam fastball, a fifty percent K

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Speaker 2: percentage that's not sustainable for a starter. But on top

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Speaker 2: of it, he has like a sixteen percent K percentage

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Speaker 2: on his next two big offerings, a slurve and a change.

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Speaker 2: He's getting no whiffs off of those, so a of

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Speaker 2: a major three pitch mix that he's got, he's getting

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Speaker 2: it all done on his fastball, and usually you're not

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Speaker 2: going to get secondaries that are going to set up

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Speaker 2: an okay fastball, You're gonna get an okay fastball that's

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Speaker 2: going to set up really good secondaries. So my cell

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Speaker 2: here is a very popular waiver wire guy that maybe

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Speaker 2: you can get out from in some type of a trade,

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Speaker 2: because I think he can have decent results and he

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Speaker 2: could be like a streamable pitcher. But I just don't

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Speaker 2: buy the k numbers that are out there. I don't

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Speaker 2: buy some of the success that's out there simply because

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Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to be able to live

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Speaker 2: off of his fastball. Reminded me of Eric Lauer from

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Speaker 2: four or five years ago. So the cell that I'm

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Speaker 2: willing to kind of commit to right now is Kyle Harrison,

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Speaker 2: especially when we get higher sample sizes to jump in.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think last week on the show, I

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Speaker 2: was selling out on Oneal Cruz. I still feel that way.

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Speaker 2: I almost put him back on here because of the

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Speaker 2: insane numbers that he's putting up. But you know, we

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Speaker 2: just don't know yet, and I can't say him every

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Speaker 2: single week. I don't believe his batting average is going

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Speaker 2: to continue. I don't believe he'll hit seven hundred against

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Speaker 2: lefties where he struggled so It is a really weird

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Speaker 2: time to find the proper cells in the market. But

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Speaker 2: Kyle Harrison was one that kind of fit the mold

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Speaker 2: for me.

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Speaker 1: I would say I would hold on to Harrison a

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Speaker 1: little bit longer. I do think that when you start

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Speaker 1: to get to seventy five one hundred innings of Kyle Harrison,

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Speaker 1: that's when you might want to look to kick the

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Speaker 1: tires on selling him. That's my point of view, But

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Speaker 1: I was more of a Harrison guy going into this year.

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Speaker 1: But what are your thoughts? Everybody? We love to hear

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Speaker 1: from you. Drop your comments below in the YouTube channel.

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Speaker 1: Who are you buying? Who are you selling? Or are

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Speaker 1: you buying Zach Wheel or are you selling him? Same

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Speaker 1: with Nick Kurse, Dillon Sees Kyle Harrison. Let us know

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Speaker 1: your thoughts. Drop him the comments below. You could win

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Speaker 1: some cool stuff here. We're giving away those Fantasy Championship belts.

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Speaker 1: And also don't forget the trade analyzers here to help you,

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Speaker 1: go to fantasypros dot com, slash MLB my playbook or

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Speaker 1: download the Fantasy Pros app today. Sink your leagues for

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Speaker 1: free and use the tools like the trade analyzer to

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Speaker 1: help you make all the moves in your league. That'll

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Speaker 1: do it for us, but the story theme goes on

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Speaker 1: for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

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