WEBVTT - UK Budget Special: What Will It Cost You? 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:19.319 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to Meren Talks Money, 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:21.560 the podcast in which people who know the markets explain 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.759 the markets. I'm Maren zumsetweb listeners. As some of you 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:26.520 will know, we have made a bit of a tradition 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:28.960 of hosting a live recording of the podcast the morning 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:31.960 after the budget. So earlier today I sat down with 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:34.360 a familiar cast of Merin Talks Money guests to talk 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.920 through our reactions to the budget and to take listener questions. 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.559 Joining me in Bloomberg's London headquarters was John Steppeck, my 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:45.000 co host and author of the Money Distilled newsletter, Stephanie Flanders, 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.560 Bloomberg's head of Government and Economics, and Helen Thomas, CEO 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:53.959 of Blonde Money. Now, this we are hoping is going 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.240 to become a long term tradition. We did this last 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.280 year the same panel. You were here last yearn you, Stephanie, 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:00.480 John Bial's say me. 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:02.320 Okay. 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.640 And the idea is that we do a. 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.160 Live podcast here the morning after the budget from Bloomberg 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:13.560 headquarters here in London. So with me today Stephanie Flanders, 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:16.319 head of Economics and Government at Bloomberg, Helen Thomas, you 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.400 were here last your way, I was not worked. Okay, 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:21.679 Well come every year please, founder and CEO of Blonde 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:25.080 Money and John Steppeck, senior reporter and author of the 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:30.040 award winning a multi award winning Money Distilled newsletter. I 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:31.840 will say, by the way, that this podcast has also 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:35.319 won an award, So there's an award winning podcast right now. 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:37.800 Before I start, I just want to check the feel 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:38.800 of the audience. 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:40.600 Who is happy with the budget? 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:45.680 Hands up the right, Oh, well, two hands have got free, 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:48.440 hands have gone up. I think we've got about three 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.760 hundred and fifty people in the audience who thought it 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:55.800 was a good budget for Rachel Reeves more hands okay, 0:01:55.840 --> 0:02:02.280 good budget for young people, no old people, for more 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:08.120 of their okay, for growth, not a single hand, not 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:09.840 a thinker. That was my aim to go to a 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:11.640 bit where not a single hand went up. 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:13.000 Okay. 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.800 So can we start Helen with you now? The question 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:19.600 that a lot of people ask before this budget and 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:21.520 after it is is this enough for Rachel? We used 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:23.919 to keep a job for a. 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:30.079 Few more weeks, maybe months at best, and she can 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:35.400 thank the Fed's John Williams for that, okay, Because what 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:37.720 we have had is the market giving her the benefit 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:42.519 of the doubt because broadly the market now seeing potentially 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:44.920 will rate cuts out of the US is sort of 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.840 in a slightly more benign mood. So yes, benefit of 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:51.320 the doubt for now, but it will unravel, It will 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:53.160 unravel politically, and we'll probably come onto it. 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:56.000 Okay, So as far as the guild market is concerned, 0:02:56.040 --> 0:02:57.320 everything's basically fine. 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:00.480 For the next well for sort of the next few 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:05.079 days and weeks. Okay, if you want me to read 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:06.840 out the bit of the OBL report that means it 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:07.880 isn't No. 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:08.919 I don't want you to read it out. I want 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:10.040 you to summarize. 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:14.840 Okay, borrowing will be is higher, and the fiscal consolidation 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:18.320 comes later. Yeah, that is a pretty toxic mix if 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:20.840 anyone thinks they're going to do fiscal consolidation in the 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:22.239 year before scheduled election. 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:24.959 Yeah, so this is what the markets may be missing. 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:27.600 There's a lot of spending up front, but the consolidation 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:30.160 itself is backloaded, and we can't be absolutely sure that 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:32.280 very many things those things will happen, and we'll come 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.000 onto the mansion tags later, which is one of the 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:36.200 things that I suspect the audience is super interested in 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:38.520 and which I suspect will never happen. 0:03:39.600 --> 0:03:42.320 John, from your point of view, Yeah, I think. 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.120 I mean, I agree with Hell and I do think 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:47.960 the other issue is that possibly people I think they 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:49.720 will get a little bit too excited about the gelp's 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:52.160 market these days because of what happened to realized choice. 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:53.760 And the thing that we have to remember is that 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:57.000 when that happened, it was an extremely fair rail moment 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:01.120 in global microeconomics, so interesting, it's shooting up. And on 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:04.960 top of that, Britain had some kind of LDI leverage 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:07.640 inside the system. So you can think what you like 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:10.400 about Liz Trust, but she was throwing a Molotov cocktail 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:14.600 at Agenda Tower. That's the point. So what has happened 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.440 now is the guilts market is much more stable. Also, 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:21.800 the Debt Management Office is managing the issuance much more so. 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:26.279 For example, they canceled three scheduled thirty year guilt auctions, 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:28.960 so that means there are fewer chunks of long term 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:32.279 debt being issued, which means the supplies down, which is 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:35.039 the reason that yield went down yesterday, because if you 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:36.720 need thirty year gilts, that are a few of them 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.680 kicking about So I think all of that stuff is 0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:42.120 easy to neglect because we do get obsessed with the 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:45.200 politics and the ushi. But equally, as Helen said, it's 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:47.200 also because they fed now looks as if it might 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:50.080 cut interest roots. So it's you know, there's a big 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:52.919 chunk of things going on that make her you know, 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.400 she's throwing a Molotov cocktail. She's thrown it at like, 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.120 you know, a skyscraper or you know, a kind of 0:04:58.200 --> 0:04:58.920 fireproof trump. 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:02.160 Okay, and this was a relatively non inflationary budget, particularly 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:03.480 relatively yes, well. 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:05.720 Yeah, I mean relatively speaking, it still wasn't you know 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.600 she was pushing back against you know, like she's sort 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:10.479 of gaming the figures a bit over the next year 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:14.640 by you know, poising the index and the train fairs 0:05:14.680 --> 0:05:17.680 and things like that. But certainly putting the minimum wage 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.000 up by four point one percent is not. 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:22.320 That's an inflationary younger people. 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:24.400 Oh yeah, And it's also because you know, because supermarket's 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:26.039 employer paid a lot of people who I mean to 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.760 be through the supermarkets all pay above minimum wage. But 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:31.640 if you're going to keep paying above minimum wage, and 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:33.320 then every time minimum wage goes up, you have to 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.400 bump up your staff salaries. I mean quite apart from 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:38.880 the impact on kind of wage compression and you know, 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.040 damaging people's motivation to work. The point is they need 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:43.840 to pass that cost on somehow. In the Bank of 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.680 England itself said, you know earlier this year one of 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.280 these food prices have gone up. Isn't because global food 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:52.120 prices are higher. It's because the kind of labor costs 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:54.839 are having to get passed on by the supermarkets, which 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.640 are extremely low margin businesses. As I suspect everyone in 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:02.640 this room probably knows. So yeah, so yeah, I'm not 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:05.080 particularly interest, but I think the reason she's got away 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:08.400 with it is bequised. The envitement is much more forgiving. 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.200 Yeah, definitely have any major surprises in their view. 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:15.440 Well, so the surprise was actually the market reaction is 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:18.760 at some level, and I think it also underscored the 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:22.200 missed opportunity because you had a budget that was I'm 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:24.360 not sure, at least for the purposes of today, I'm 0:06:24.400 --> 0:06:26.080 going to be slight. I'm going to try really hard 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:27.840 to be a bit more positive because it just feels 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.040 like otherwise we're going to be beating our stick over 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:31.360 this budget for the next hour. 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:33.040 But it's hard. 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:34.479 I have to say, it's hard to find things to 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.680 good say, but I think it was if you're looking 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.960 at the UK and thinking is this, and you would 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:42.560 many people were, obviously, and the global markets were thinking 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.400 this when the Labor government came in, and were actually 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.520 betting on the UK, putting money into the UK on 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:50.159 the basis that this was going to be a government 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:53.480 that was going to be more long term, certainly more 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.400 stable politically, was going to take some of these tough 0:06:56.480 --> 0:07:00.400 choices after all this chaos, and instead you've had a 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:03.599 series of budgets that made all the same sort of 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:06.279 awkward short term compromises. I wouldn't say these I mean 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.520 they're obviously in a labor direction. I wouldn't say they're 0:07:08.520 --> 0:07:10.840 fundamentally worse than some of the compromises that were made 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:12.920 in the previous government. But you certainly haven't seen a 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:17.480 step change in the quality of macro decision making or 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:20.800 a government taking advantage of the fact that it had 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:24.320 a full term ahead and a large majority. And I 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:27.640 think in this case, you know you had and our economists, 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:31.680 chief economists Dan Hanson had identified you know, you have 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.560 that money on the table that you could have got 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:36.840 from persuading the markets that actually you were going to 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:38.440 you were willing to take some pain, that you were 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:42.520 willing to have some front loaded fiscal consolidation, which also 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:46.440 incidentally could have helped the more sort of fundamental way, 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:48.880 Hey up the Bank of England to cut rates sooner. 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:51.200 And when I saw how little the market had reacted 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.880 to this one, you know, purely with the reassurance that 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.320 there was more margin for error now, but not that 0:07:56.520 --> 0:08:00.640 we won't actually be making those errors, I thought, Wow, 0:08:00.720 --> 0:08:01.360 they really could have. 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:02.200 They could have come away. 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.200 We had what four basis points cut in yeals, it 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:07.640 could have been twenty. We could have got halfway back 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:11.600 to the US, potentially on a day where people, as 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:13.400 we've all said, you know, the markets were feeling a 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.440 little bit more favorable. Anyway, that gap with the US. 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.280 There's no sensible reason for it, even if you look 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:23.560 at the long term fundamentals, except this feeling that UK 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:27.480 governments can no longer do difficult things, which is true, 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.240 which you know, based on you know, all available evidence, 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:32.000 seems to be true. 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:33.920 What difficult thing do you think that she could have 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:34.559 had to go at? 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:37.320 I mean the obvious one, but it's funny because you know, 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:39.520 it's a bad sign for a government that has this 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:42.240 many years ahead that you're constantly going back to things 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.560 they might have done a year earlier. Yeah, So, you know, 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:47.000 this time a year ago, we were saying, why did 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:49.760 she sign up to that national insurance cut that Jeremy 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.960 Hunt or the two success of Jeremy Hunt national insurance cuts, 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:55.640 and why hadn't she not just said we're going to 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:57.720 reverse those, but we'll be back to where we were, 0:08:57.880 --> 0:08:59.760 will keep rates exactly where they were a year ago, 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:01.840 but we don't think these cuts are affordable. That would 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.520 have saved her twenty billion pounds of pain. Then we 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:07.120 got to this budget, we said, well, why hasn't she 0:09:07.200 --> 0:09:09.800 done you know, why hasn't she been braver on saying 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:12.680 the world has changed, you know, and actually tackled some 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.000 of the things on income tax. Same with the spring 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:18.280 statement that we had a complete change in the global 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:23.199 environment with Trump and the intensification in Ukraine, and yet 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.400 they still missed that opportunity. So I just think, you know, 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:28.280 the real shame is that we are constantly saying she's 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:32.600 missed an opportunity. She's just doing the minimum, and you know, 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:34.480 we're going to look back and say, wow, there's just 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:36.199 there's so many things that this government could have done 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:38.880 that it's not done. And instead, as we're pointing out, 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.760 the welfare bill is going up and the same physical 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:42.559 challenges are there. 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:42.960 Yeah. 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:45.160 Well, we were talking about this earlier, about the signals 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:47.400 that we're sending here, and one of the sort of 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:49.800 extraordinary things that you can look at at the moment 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.640 to see that the total welfare bill is remarkably similar 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:54.840 to the total income tax bill. And you get to 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:57.680 a point when you're looking at maybe young people working 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:00.400 and working very hard paining their income tax and they 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.040 can now look at it and go wow, pretty much 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:04.200 every pound I pay an income tax is going one 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:06.400 way or another into the welfare bill. And that's a 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:08.160 terrible signal to send to our young people. 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.320 And it's also just a weird signal that disc government. 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.559 I mean, you've got a particular thing around. 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:13.319 You know. I think it was. 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:19.600 Really disappointing and you know, dereliction to not push harder 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:23.160 on the welfare of formula, but to not push to 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:26.880 not get anything in return for this kind of important 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.240 contribution to child poverty. But you would always have said, 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:31.640 given the downsides of that, you would always have said 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.320 it had to go with some more serious reform and 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:35.760 to end up with nothing. 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:37.600 On the other side of the ledger, I think, well. 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.199 There is something the return to face to face appointments well, 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:42.760 and I think that sounds little bit and actually maybe 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:43.240 quite big. 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.079 I was actually yesterday someone asked me, you know, what's 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:48.960 some sort of the opposite of an unexploded bomb, you know, 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:51.400 the sort of positive things that might unexpectedly go well 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:53.520 in the last year, And that was the while I highlighted. 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.480 I think, I think there is a possibility that that 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.240 will have a much bigger effect on the roles. But 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.360 remember you've still got a lot of people who you know, 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.440 the fixed number of people already on the rolls as 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:04.920 well driving up the bills. 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:08.160 Helen were let's let's pick up that, then let's go 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.319 for something positive. Were there any hidden positive surprises in 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:12.720 there for you? Do you think I have a horrible 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:13.720 feeling the answer is going to be no. 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.800 But well I want to give I suppose give some 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.199 credit to Rachel Ruves that she was trying to square 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:22.959 an impossible circle and it could have been worse. 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:24.960 So it could have been worse that's not what I'm 0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:25.600 looking for, no. 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:30.000 Okay, okay, so yes, all right, let me let me 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:31.439 think about that. 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.760 It's quite difficult, okay, John. 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:37.760 I was. 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:43.719 In terms of, well, I've got to go back to 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:45.320 this thing about welfare, because the front page of the 0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:48.880 newspapers this morning pretty much singularly or negative. 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:51.400 But you know, it's what is it? 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:55.079 You know, the shirkers, the strivers are paying for the shirkers. 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:56.920 So we just roll on all the time, and what 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:58.800 is this government about? What is its strategy, what is 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.720 its narrative, what is it s message? Where are its priorities? 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.520 And then this tussle over welfare turned into a temic 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:08.080 debate about the two child benefit cap, and now it's 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:11.560 rolled into shirkers versus drivers, which is surely not what 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:12.679 the government wanted it to do. 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:14.600 So sorry, that's negative again. 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:22.440 They okay, okay, Well, she has, as we started on this, 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:26.280 given something more to the sort of labor. It's a 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.120 labor budget for labor people. I'm a labor person doing 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:29.920 progressive things. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.000 She said that. I think she's she has sold. 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:37.719 That to some degree, so perhaps she has managed to 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:43.400 bring a bit together. The splitting parts elements the Labor Party. 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:45.240 Okay, brave Helen. 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:52.200 It's really didn't work with the line Fell tax. There 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.520 was a line Fell tax which was basically I'm not 0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:56.720 an infrastructure of gay, so then that I might change. 0:12:56.720 --> 0:13:00.400 They were going to like multiplayer by about ten teams men. 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:02.920 You can never build our hose again in the entire country. 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:05.160 So that was quite a good idea. 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:06.800 Slash that would be. 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:10.800 A much better idea because yeah, constructure and it's one 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:12.640 of the reasons why we have dumping across the UK, 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:14.800 because it's so expensive to move stuff to a land 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:15.520 filled stuff there. 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.840 Is I mean, what's ironic about this government is all 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:19.480 the good stuff they're doing is the stuff they're really 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:22.000 trying to hide not talking about very much at all. 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.880 So as she did mention John Fingleton's report on the 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.280 making it easier to build nuclear power stations, I mean 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.600 that goes to this whole swath of things of why 0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:33.400 is it so flipping difficult to build anything in this country? 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:35.960 And there has been quite a lot of active involvement 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:36.280 if you. 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.720 Look for my sins. I was actually looking. 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.120 At some of the amendments in the remember it's called 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:45.240 now Land Planning and Infrastructure Bill, which for some reason 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.079 is still not got roll ascent. But anyway, there was 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.840 an intervention actually by number ten to make that even 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:54.040 tougher in terms of overruling local councils on big projects, 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:56.720 a number of things that should make it easier also 0:13:56.760 --> 0:14:00.440 to do big infrastructure and those things. You know, if 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:03.640 it becomes not impossible to build a nuclear power station, 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.360 I think that's something that you know, future governments will 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:10.360 benefit from. But it's an important change which you know, 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.280 let's face it, all of those the planning, all of 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.720 those things got much worse under the last fifteen years. 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:19.040 There was no concerted pressure from the Conservatives on that, 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.400 so you know, I think that kind of thing matters. Also, 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:23.840 I know it's not very popular and many people have 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:27.720 said it's something that might get reversed, but we were 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:29.720 going to have to move to a way of taxing 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.760 electric cars, and for them to have had actually been 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.720 brave enough to say, okay, this is the system and 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.520 it's going to come in in a few years time. 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:39.480 You know, somebody was going to have to do that, 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:41.800 and we don't want it to be another thing that 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:46.440 governments are incredibly unbrave about that we have for the 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:47.000 fuel levees. 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:49.640 The other positive stick sticking with electricity. 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.560 The other positive you might pull out is the beginning 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:54.880 of a recognition that electricity builds them. You go too 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.400 high because of the piling of green levels, green levees, 0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:58.920 on and on and on and on and on, and 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:00.720 of course they will have to be paid. Shifting them 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.000 into general taxation doesn't take away the fact they have 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:04.960 to be paid, but it takes them off of electricity. 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.080 But it probably should have been in general taxation. Yeah, 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:08.920 it should be in general taxation in the first place. 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.200 But it's a recognition that we have a problem with 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.320 electricity prices. So that seemed that was a very minor 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:15.520 positive that I could. 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:18.160 Thing as well. 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:20.280 Yes, that just irritated me, to be honest. 0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:23.000 I mean it's really it's really a limp because yeah. 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:24.800 And this is this is the if you I p O, 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:27.080 then you don't. There's no stam duty on the trading 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.640 of the shots for three years, which you know is fine. 0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:31.520 But the reason people don't IBO in the UK is 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:33.080 because they're not going to get a good enough price. 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:34.960 And this of only three years. 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:37.520 Sure you capitalize that into it, you get a small 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:40.280 uplift possibly in your issue price, but but not much. 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:42.960 And you know stamp duty should go across the board, 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:47.360 don't you think. I mean, you've been listening, but can't 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:49.880 take the big steps to make the proper change that 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:50.440 is needed. 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:52.120 I think that's that that is the problem, and it's 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:53.880 kind of bog was doing a very FoST question that 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.120 you asked here, and like the issue here is that 0:15:56.160 --> 0:16:00.320 this is our budget done essentially to see for the 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.920 Chancellor's neck, and that means she's basically doing it for 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:08.400 a tiny audience of labor MPs and that makes all 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.760 of the difficult things even harder. I mean, it was 0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:13.720 always to have to promise that she wasn't going to 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.840 put up income tax. I don't know why people are 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:19.320 so obsessed with the manifesto because it's very clearly been broken. 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:21.440 I mean, if you don't think physcal drag is putting 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:23.040 up income tax on people, and I don't know what 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.680 to tell you to We're absolutely honest, you know this 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.360 stuff is you know, it's very loyally kind of like 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:32.000 way of looking at things, But if you look at 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.920 all the problems that we fundamentally have, it is about 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.840 politicians being afraid to tell people hard things. And that's 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:40.480 why they're hiding the planning stuff as well, because there's 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.200 a cohort who really you know, the ymbies want to 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:44.680 hear it, but the nymbi's don't. 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:45.720 They don't want to be told it. 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.240 And as soon as I mean even the ymbi's, as 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:54.840 soon as it's actually in their backyard, very very quickly, 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:56.240 I think. 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:57.200 That's the problem. And I don't. 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:01.240 I don't know how we get beyond that. Except for that, 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:02.920 I guess they'll like that. It has to get source 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.960 sick of the kiniscaliursis and the plaque building not in 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:09.680 the arteries of the state, that eventually we get somebody 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:13.600 who's got the vote online date total quilo. 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:14.080 You get to crisis? 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.840 Can I ask you Ellen about We're talking about fiscal drag, 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.720 which is such a big deal in the UK and 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:20.480 we worry a lot. 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:21.920 We talk a lot John nine on the podcast. 0:17:21.920 --> 0:17:24.280 We talk about the rich leaving the UK, and we 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:26.280 talk about the millionaires and the billionaires and they're all 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.320 going to Milan and Luxembourg, in Dubai, etc. But I'm 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:32.320 not sure we talk enough about high income young people. 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.320 And so there's in fiscal drag like this so they're 0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:37.639 starting to pay higher levels of income tax very early. 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:40.080 And then of course we saw yesterday the thing that 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:42.680 I was I was surprised by. I didn't see that coming, 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.520 with freezing preshoals for student loans and the freezing of 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:47.600 interest rates for student loans. 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:49.879 So you will see increasingly. 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.760 Young people hitting this level where their marginal rate of 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:54.919 income tax at fifty one percent, really remarkably early. And 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:56.879 this seems to me to be one of the not 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:58.840 particularly discussed problems in this budget. 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.399 Well, this is the the thrust of if you do 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:04.439 a smagas board rather than be brave and do and 0:18:04.480 --> 0:18:06.640 do the big income tax rise on. 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.240 Everybody that you then end up hitting. 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:13.240 I mean, presumably that was done to scrimp back some 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.359