WEBVTT - The Mark Moss Show Feb 04, 2022 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.840 Hey, everyone, welcome back to another episode of The Mark 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:05.960 Moss Show where we talk bitcoin. We talked about the 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:09.680 decentralized Revolution, and we try to bring you the education, 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:12.640 up to the minute news and some interesting people to 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.159 talk to each and every week. Bitcoin is difficult to 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:17.680 understand and so it takes some time. You have to 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.160 dedicate the time to that. Um. I'm in the studio 0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:24.360 today with Dylan Leclair. You can find him on Twitter 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:29.000 at Dylan Leclair Underscore. Man, you gotta fix that. Uh. 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:31.880 He's a he's a market analyst, Bitcoin magazine and U 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.440 t x O Management. Um. He does amazing um on 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.200 chain analytics. And he's got a good macro game as well. 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:43.680 And UM, Dylan's young. He's young, but he is smart. 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:45.400 He's put the work in and so that's what I said. 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:48.279 Bitcoin is difficult to understand, but you gotta put the time. 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:50.360 And I've had people ask me like, hey, explain bitcoin 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:52.400 to me, like I'm five and in two minutes and 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:54.640 I'm just like, dude, like that ain't gonna happen, like 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:57.280 I can. You gotta commit the time to it, and Dylan, 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:00.080 you definitely have thanks for joining me today. Mark. Be 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:02.600 happy to be On. Uh. Yeah, I mean definitely have 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:05.000 to have to take some time. And I think both 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:07.800 of us have probably spent a few thousand hours thinking 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.120 about this thing. So happy to happy to dive in. 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:13.640 Here is it? What would you agree that? Um? Almost 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.520 the more that you learn, the more you realize that 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:21.560 you still don't know. There are no experts in bitcoin. Uh. 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.440 And it's probably just you know, the amount of like 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:28.319 disciplines it takes to understand bitcoin or really just kind 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:30.200 of understand it from a certain angle. But you know, 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:33.720 whether it's finance, the history, the history of money, economics, 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:39.240 computer science like cryptography and that that whole history. Uh, 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.800 you know, there's there's no one the energy revolution that's 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.200 happening with bitcoin mining. Like if you claim to be 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:48.080 an expert on bitcoin, you're life you're lying because this 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.040 this is a different beast. But yeah, I mean I've 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.120 I've put him a little bit of time in terms 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.160 of trying to understand the finance side of it, you know, 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:57.880 economic side of it. And I have to say it's 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:00.760 a little bit surreal being on because I've learned a 0:02:00.840 --> 0:02:03.760 lot about kind of finance and Nikon from from your 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.800 YouTube videos. Thank back in the day. So I appreciate it, 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:08.920 Thank you, thank you. Yeah. I love. I love to 0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:10.840 focus on As you said, you kind of named all 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.480 those different disciplines that you kind of have to know. 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:15.000 I kind of like the political and like the historical 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:17.000 side of things. Um, and so that's kind of where 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.440 I focus. And you found yourself liking the analytics side. 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:22.959 And uh, that's cool. Right. It's like this thread that 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.000 kind of weaves through society and and it and it 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:27.720 kind of intersects all of us differently, and that's that's good. 0:02:27.720 --> 0:02:29.280 That's important, right, And we can all kind of hit 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.440 these different areas. So you're kind of on this analytic side, um, 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:35.480 which I want to dig into. Um. But but but 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:38.680 but why why analytics for you? Like, h were you 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:42.560 like a math nerd? You don't look like a math. Yeah. 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.640 Definitely definitely was the numbers guy growing up. Um, but 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:49.080 really kind of just stumbled upon bitcoin more from like 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.520 the finance side of things. I was I wanted to be. Uh. 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:54.400 I was just good with numbers in high school and 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.120 I'm like, all right, well i'll do business. Um. And 0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:59.600 so I started reading about the stock market and really 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.600 just like very very simple things um and stumbled upon 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:07.560 cryptocurrency bitcoin, didn't didn't know the difference in in late 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:12.440 I'm still in high school at this point, UM, and 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.200 just from a financial assets side of things, not like 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:19.080 had had no other kind of computer background or even 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:21.760 like monetary economic background. It was just like, oh, this 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:25.080 is a thing that trades on charts, and I'm eighteen seventeen, 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:27.480 eighteen years old and it makes sense. Uh and dove 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:31.440 down it like down in the rabbit hole, really really hard. Uh. 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.440 And kind of the transparency of bitcoin, the you know 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:36.840 that the analytic side, I mean, the whole network is 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:40.400 completely auditable. UM. That was very interesting to me as 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:43.040 well as being kind of from the finance side of things, 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:45.960 like I went to one year of university setting UH 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:50.080 finance and economics at UH the University of Vermont Business School, UM, 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:54.000 and I dropped out to pursue bitcoin because it seemed 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:56.920 like it was this this area that you know, it 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.360 was an arena of ideas and credit it didn't matter 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:01.960 one bit. And I was like, all right, well, you know, 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:05.400 why am I trying to get some some business degree 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:08.920 when I'm like spending all my time learning and thinking 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:11.680 about this thing. Anyway, you don't need any sort of 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:14.360 credentials or or degree. You just you know, put out 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.000 put out content or or not even put out content. 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.960 But just like again, it's their arena of ideas. This 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:22.920 is everybody is trying to provide value here. Yeah, this 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:24.839 is where the world is shifting right now. I was 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:27.279 on a on a Twitter spaces with Preston Pitch and 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:29.560 somebody was saying, Hey, we need to figure out ways 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:32.200 that we can go educate all these lawmakers and stuff 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:34.560 and educate people so they can really dig into bitcoin. 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:37.480 And Preston said, I'm not interested in that. He's like, 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.080 I put out content. If you want it, it's here, 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.240 come and engage with it. He said. But this is 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:44.800 really going to be a shift in the world because 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.000 what we have, this system, this feat money system we 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:50.480 have today is built off elitism. Right, if you can 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.520 be close to the money supply, you can be And 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:56.160 I used the word elitism like I wouldn't hire any 0:04:56.200 --> 0:04:58.800 of them to run in my run work in my business. Um, 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.200 they have no quality skills. But because they're close to 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:02.680 the money, so why they're good of politics? They can 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.120 get ahead and Um, what's what we have now is 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:08.040 we have the shift to meritocracy right where our hard 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:09.719 work and our effort can get us ahead. And so 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:12.119 that's what Preston was saying, is like, look, my content 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:13.640 is there. If they want it, they can come get it. 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.800 But what we're seeing is we're ending the money printer 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.400 elitism and those people are not going to get on 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:21.640 the new program. And so we're gonna see wealth shift 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.840 to people who are putting the work in um. And 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:27.039 I love that perspective. That's kind of what you did, Dylan. 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:29.440 I mean you, uh, you you found something that you're 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:31.400 interested in. You dug in and and and Yeah, to 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:32.960 be good at something you have to put that time 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:35.440 commitment in which what you did and in college gets 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.719 you to think general about everything, right like uh, forty 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:41.200 you're a dabbler, forty five minutes here, forty five minutes there, 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:43.600 an hour or they're kind of a thing. So um, 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:45.400 So you look at the Entian data. Now you mentioned 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:46.960 it's the only Bitcoin is the only thing that has 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:50.799 an audible like auditable data. Um. And that's pretty interesting. 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:52.599 So when you look at financial markets, if you're studying 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:56.040 energy markets, oil markets, stock market, etcetera, you don't have 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.360 the data that you have with bitcoin. Is that maybe 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.240 something that kind of attracted you a little bit? Yeah, 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:04.040 I mean I really just as I came to understand 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.080 the properties of bitcoin and and the things like you know, 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:10.480 running a node, what is a node? How the bitcoin 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:14.120 network operates? Absolute scarcity? Why has that never been a 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:17.799 thing before? How did bitcoin solve that? How did Satoshi 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:22.040 Nockamoto solve that problem of the double spend problem, of 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:25.680 of absolute scarcity, of digital scarcity? Um? And so when 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:28.440 I came to understand all those things, I was really 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:30.760 kind of my mind was blown, and I realized I 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.080 needed I was in college. I was like, I need 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:35.000 as much bitcoin as I can. So I dropped out 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:36.880 and I didn't do a bitcoin job I had. I 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:38.839 was just like, you know, passionately reading and learning in 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:40.720 my free time. But I was like doing manual labor, 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:45.400 Like I wasn't doing bitcoin analysis or anything full time remotely, 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.040 Like I was listening to podcasts of Mark Moss and 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:51.720 Preston Pitch while I was while I was wiring outlets. 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:53.960 Like it was like a very you know, humbling kind 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:58.120 of uh you know, nine twelve months. But um, as 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:00.960 I kind of consumed all that information free, I was 0:07:01.160 --> 0:07:03.840 I started to uh contribute a little bit more and more, 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:07.440 and Twitter d M turned into a role kind of 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:09.359 um doing some of the stuff that I really like. 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:12.440 But in terms of why it fascinated me, um, I 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:14.680 don't know. Just like the on chain kind of analytics 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.320 and it gets a bad rap or I think maybe recently, 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.680 especially in draw downs. The thing that launching analytics is 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:23.320 so cool, uh, is that well, one, if you're just 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:25.760 talking about price, it could be about mining, hash rate, 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.600 literally any of the economics of the Bitcoin network, transaction fees, like, 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.040 it doesn't have to be price analysis. That's one in 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.120 terms of watching analytics. And two is that we can 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:37.480 we can quantify supply side dynamics. And so if you 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.160 look at like any any of the parabolic bitcoin runs 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.400 throughout history, it got to a point where the supply 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:45.880 side had increased so much there were so like the 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:48.120 hogglers of last Resort, Like you can feel that when 0:07:48.120 --> 0:07:50.400 people are like I'm not selling, I'm buying more with 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:53.560 on chain instead of it being anecdotal, you can see 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:55.760 it and it's and it's verifiable and seeming like, oh 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:59.080 my god, Like of the bitcoin supplies is by people 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:01.840 that haven't spent it in six months and so like 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:04.960 any marginal buyer comes in, like we go parabolic when 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:07.320 a wall of money hits not a lot of supply, 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:09.320 and with on chain, we can like literally see that 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:13.160 accumulation of the years of accumulation and then like a 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:15.760 six to twelve month bull run where all of this 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.080 kind of hoddle supplied distributes and so like I'm just 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.920 naming an example, but it's really fascinating for the first 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.320 time because we can see all of this happen, uh, 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:27.240 and with full transparency and then mutability, like it's it's there, 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:30.280 it's recorded forever. Um. If you ask how many U 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:33.920 S dollars are in circulation, No, it's credit based, right, 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.480 there's there's euro dollars, there's it's it's all fractional reserved, 0:08:37.480 --> 0:08:40.040 like no one knows how much gold even even like 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:42.920 like sometimes it's like in the equity markets, it's like 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:44.920 how many shares are outstanding? No one don't even know. 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:49.079 Like GameStop had more shares shorted than there was shares 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:51.480 that's standing. It's like how does that happen? Um? So 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.040 with bitcoin, right, the trends, like that's just the transparency 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.480 of it all and the analytics side. That framework kind 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.880 of fascinated me. So, UM, I want to talk about 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.240 what are maybe some of the one or two or 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:06.319 your top favorite UM indicators to look at on chain. UM, 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:08.719 I want to talk about how we look at those 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.000 and kind of differences and and what they really mean. 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:12.880 And then I want to take that and then look 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.440 at that and compared against this macro backdrop that we 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:17.319 have going on with the Phoedero reserve and these FED 0:09:17.400 --> 0:09:19.719 meetings they had this week and this kind of stuff. UM, 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:21.720 I'm in the studio with Dylan Leclair. You're listening to 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.720 the Mark Moss Show talking about bitcoin, talking about on 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:27.440 chain data with Dylan Leclair. UM, we'll be back in 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:29.760 a second. Do not go away, all right? You are 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:31.960 back listening to the Mark Moa Show and we're talking 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:35.839 about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in this decentralized revolution that is 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.920 happening right now. I am UM in the studio with 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.280 Dylan Leclair. You can find him on Twitter at Dylan 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:45.720 Leclair Underscore and UM. He's a market analyst with Bitcoin 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:50.359 Magazine looking at specifically mostly on chain data, which is uh, 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:54.199 looking at the data about coins moving, how old there are, 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:56.080 things like that and there's a lot of information we 0:09:56.120 --> 0:09:58.920 get from that now, Dylan. Um, before the break, I 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.080 said that I was hoping that maybe you'd give us 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:03.959 maybe your top couple things that maybe do you think 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.679 are important or that people should look at, Like maybe 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.760 it's m v r V or something like that. Do 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:11.880 you have a couple like that? Yeah, I mean you're 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:13.400 that on the money that That was the one I 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:16.160 was going to throw out. So with bitcoin, right the 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:18.720 full transparency of the network, we can essentially see what 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:21.160 coins moved when, and we can match that up with 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.840 what the price of bitcoin was when that like what 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.520 what was bitwin trading at when those coins are technically 0:10:26.559 --> 0:10:29.679 they're called u t xos when they moved. Um. So 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:32.000 we can see like do things like say, what's the 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:35.400 average cost basis of every coin in the network? Um? 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.200 And so right now currently that average cost basis bitcoin 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:44.319 like the on chain average price when bitcoin was last moved. 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:48.120 So that means you look at a coin and the 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.120 last time it moved and what the price was when 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:53.320 it got to that wallet or that address. Yeah, exactly. 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:54.679 So if you want to think of it, maybe this 0:10:54.720 --> 0:10:56.560 is an easier way to think of it. So there's 0:10:56.600 --> 0:11:00.360 a market cap is circulating supply times the current price. 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:02.640 What we what we can do is we can have 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.520 what's called the realized market cap or it's called realized cap, 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:10.320 where it's the circulating supply and the price the coins 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:14.720 last moved. But for every individual coin, every single setoshi, 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:16.679 we can see when it was last moved with with 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:19.559 perfect record, and so the where the market cap is, 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:22.880 say what is it today, seven hundred billions something around there, 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:28.320 uh seven billion, The realized cap figures like fourty um 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.360 and so we can see so that translates to like 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:36.160 thirty six thousand dollar bitcoin dollar realized price UM. Just 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.680 it's the same metric divided by circulating supply, and we 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:40.800 can just like do things like take a ratio of 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:44.000 those two metrics price versus. That's almost like if you 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.360 want to think of it as like the intrinsic value 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.800 or the subjective value of the network from every hoddler, 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:51.800 we can kind of see the bull and bear cycles 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:55.000 play out with this with the ratio of these two metrics. 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.439 With that what's it called market value to realize value, 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.680 you brought it up first, you know your stuff, and 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:01.960 the r V ratio you can kind of see these 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:05.240 bull and bear cycles where price runs way way ahead 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.920 of its on chain basically like on chain cost basis 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:13.560 on chain value. Uh. And as as more money comes 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.439 in and more those coins kind of get further distributed, 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:19.840 what happens is that that realized cap rises. So, if 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:21.640 you like, if you're thinking of bitcoin as an asset 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:25.959 monetizing just to centralized monetary asset, air dropped under the 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.920 world and No. Nine, what's been happening since? Well, people 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:30.920 say it's it's it's so volatile, But if you just 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.240 look at realized price, it's in a log scale, it's 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:37.520 going it's just bending upwards, flatlining for a couple of years, 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:39.439 bending upwards, flat laning for a couple of years, and 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.880 it's pretty remarkable to see. Uh. And it kind of 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:44.600 strips away from that day to day volatility that that people, 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:46.400 you know, that gives bitcoin kind of a bad rapp 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:48.960 to people that aren't too aware of what's happening. So 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:50.600 if I take that data that m v R V 0:12:50.800 --> 0:12:54.440 ratio um and I look at that data, um, what 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.040 does it tell me? So it says, Okay, the realized 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.320 value or the market cap value or whatever, last time 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:04.160 those coins move is at um. So that's kind of 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.679 like that sets the floor. So that means most people 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:08.960 are sitting in profit, most of those coins are in 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:11.560 profits day. And so then maybe you would extrapolate that 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:16.199 to say that, um, until bitcoin breaks below that level, UM, 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:19.800 there may not be this increased pressure to sell. Yeah. 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:23.480 So bitcoin is dropped below it's it's realized value only 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.880 like I think three or four times in history, and 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.560 they've basically it's been um, it's not the exact you know, 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:32.679 didn't bottom tick exactly at one point. Oh, and that 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.440 that market value to realize value ratio. But really anytime 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:37.719 it's dropped below it's realized price and v r V 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:40.640 below one, it's been a generational buying opportunity in a 0:13:40.640 --> 0:13:42.800 bear market. And so if we want to think of it, 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:44.760 like what's the lowest bitcoin you can drop, Well, no 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.240 one knows, but if it God's twenty four thousand, you're 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.199 buying it at the in terms of it's like relative valuation, 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.160 you're buying it at like the first percentile of of 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.960 if historical valuations. UM. And so that's just kind of 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.120 how you can think of it in terms of relative value. 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.560 And during bull markets, that'll that'll go out to five, six, 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.320 seven times. It's it's realized price or it's like true 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:06.719 price if you want to think of it like that. 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:08.880 So you can just kind of see like relative market 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:14.040 valuations compared to like historical values. Okay, so um in 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:18.480 March when bitcoin just dropped right off of a cliff, Um, 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:20.760 what did it go down to thirty or something like that? 0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.040 Was it below that level? It was I think the 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:28.520 realized price there was like about dred so um, and 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:31.720 and it was basically flatlined. It was also reached like 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:35.240 about four thousand at the top of So even though 0:14:35.240 --> 0:14:39.320 bit win drew down in this huge boon bus, that 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:43.800 realized price actually like it topped out around January and 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.600 was flat for a couple of years. So it did 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:50.479 drop below that in the in that March flash crash, 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:54.040 which again marked generational body. So um, this is just 0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:56.280 one metric, but we kind of see, like you can 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.240 you can really visualize well with this ratio the boom 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.400 and bus cycles, bitcoins monetization phases. So how close are 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.000 we to that generational buying moment at this point? As 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.880 or huthing, it would be like, yeah, it's around two 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.760 thousand and and you know, I doubt we get there 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:16.040 unless we see some huge macro economic liquidity shock um, 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:20.240 which honestly might be possible with with the FED trying 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:24.600 to taper this, you know, bond market ponzi. Essentially, I 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:26.240 don't know how far they get, but that's kind of 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:28.920 more of a macro discussion less than an on chain discussion. Yeah, 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:30.520 I want to jump to that, but before we do, 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:34.120 is there one other indicator or on chain metric that 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.320 you like to look at a lot? Yeah? I really 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:40.120 like looking at Glass now classifies or quantifies long term 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.000 and short term holders. It's kind of this arbitrary threshold 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:46.440 that's not so arbitrary and it's more statistical reasoning. But 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:48.960 long term holders a hundred fifty five days and the 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:52.680 coin waits into that um into that value as a 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.520 long term holder. Long story short. You can see during 0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:59.000 bowl and bear markets this huge kind of accumulation phase 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.600 by long term holder um as coins age into that bucket, 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.040 if you want to think of it like that. But 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:09.600 you can see during consolidation phases or bear markets, long 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:12.560 term holder supply just bends upwards. You just it's basically 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.480 like no one's selling and and and you know this 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.720 group of people around the world that's continually growing. They 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:22.000 continue to buy. Uh. And during during bull markets or 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:25.160 when bitoin goes parabolic, you see some of those coins distribute. 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:27.280 But it's really interesting because eventually it gets to a 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.800 point and whatever that point is who no one knows, 0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:33.080 but the dollar BTC ex change rate eventually gets to 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:36.240 the point where there's a supply squeeze, like and that's 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.040 kind of a meme like, oh, this's is on chain, 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.400 it's a supply squeeze, But the reality is, UH, it's 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:44.080 all supply and demand. And if we see this supply side, 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:48.800 which on chain quantifies, continue to grow, eventually there's that 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.160 marginal seller becomes exhausted and so we kind of see 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:54.920 some of that accumulation starting again. UH. And for the 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:56.760 last couple of months you saw more of a distribution 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:00.360 effect that macro fears kind of scared everybody way, but 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:02.360 it's just you know, if you look at those charts 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:04.280 over time, and I try to post some of them 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:06.520 my Twitter feed, the long and short term holder supply, 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:08.960 it's relative supply and all of that is just you 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.199 see the bull and bear markets in the data, in 0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.480 the accumulation and distribution, UH, and why the bull markets 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:16.800 eventually happened. That's kind of that wall of money. It's 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:19.760 not a lot of supply the bitcoin. So those are 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:21.800 probably my two favorite metrics. UM. You know, you can 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:23.720 look at the rate of change of long term and 0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:26.560 short term holders, or the total supply relative supply, that 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:30.680 sort of stuff. So I want to ask you, UM, 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:34.000 one of the biggest pieces of fud fear, uncertainty, doubt 0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:35.920 that I hear people throw out on on on bitcoin 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:40.040 is that UM. Yeah, it's all concentrated at the top. UM. 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.320 Right at the most most of the bitcoin is owned 0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:44.160 by a couple of addresses, and so somebody who looks 0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:45.560 at all the address data, I want to I want 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:47.560 to have you answer that, UM. And then I want 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:49.560 to get into UM, like I said, some of this 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.920 macro stuff and see maybe what the macro backdrop looked 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:55.280 at some of these other cycles UM and data and 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.639 where we are today and what you think about that. 0:17:57.880 --> 0:17:59.800 And you're listening to the Markmas Show. We're talking about 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.800 big coin, talking about the decentralized revolution. I'm in the 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.120 studio with Dylan Leclair. We are talking about on chain 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.560 data really of bitcoin, and then we're compared to the backdrop. 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:11.639 I'll be back with more. Don't go away, all right, 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:13.760 welcome back. You're listening to the Mark Moss Show, and 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.480 we're talking about bitcoin. We're talking about this decentralized revolution 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:19.760 that we are witnessing right now. I'm in the studio 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:22.920 with Dylan Leclair. He's a market analyst with Bitcoin magazine 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:26.320 U t x U x t O Management. Um, he's 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.639 kind of a we don't like. We don't like labels 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:33.480 and bitcoin, but I'd say he's a he's a specialist, 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:37.040 we'll call it that. And looking at this unchained data now, Um, 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:40.000 you were explaining two of your favorite indicators to look at, 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:42.240 m v r V and long term versus short term 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:46.000 holders Hoddlers. Um, I was gonna ask you about a 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:48.959 piece of fud real quick, which is um that all 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:51.600 the majority of the bitcoin is held by a couple 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:55.600 of addresses. UM, give us the short version and why 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.439 that probably is not true or is it true? The 0:18:59.480 --> 0:19:02.520 first thing to know is that one address does not 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.879 equal one person. Uh, and oftentimes actually the biggest addresses. 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:10.080 Although it's it is true that there are some some 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:13.240 people out there with a lot, a whole lot of bitcoin. Um, 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:16.000 just from understanding that and and not losing it in 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:19.119 the early days. Uh, the reality is that these huge, 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:23.320 these huge addresses. I mean, there's two point five million 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.359