1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Hey, everyone, welcome back to another episode of The Mark 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: Moss Show where we talk bitcoin. We talked about the 3 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: decentralized Revolution, and we try to bring you the education, 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: up to the minute news and some interesting people to 5 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,159 Speaker 1: talk to each and every week. Bitcoin is difficult to 6 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: understand and so it takes some time. You have to 7 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: dedicate the time to that. Um. I'm in the studio 8 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: today with Dylan Leclair. You can find him on Twitter 9 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: at Dylan Leclair Underscore. Man, you gotta fix that. Uh. 10 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: He's a he's a market analyst, Bitcoin magazine and U 11 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: t x O Management. Um. He does amazing um on 12 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,200 Speaker 1: chain analytics. And he's got a good macro game as well. 13 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: And UM, Dylan's young. He's young, but he is smart. 14 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: He's put the work in and so that's what I said. 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 1: Bitcoin is difficult to understand, but you gotta put the time. 16 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: And I've had people ask me like, hey, explain bitcoin 17 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: to me, like I'm five and in two minutes and 18 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: I'm just like, dude, like that ain't gonna happen, like 19 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: I can. You gotta commit the time to it, and Dylan, 20 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 1: you definitely have thanks for joining me today. Mark. Be 21 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: happy to be On. Uh. Yeah, I mean definitely have 22 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: to have to take some time. And I think both 23 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: of us have probably spent a few thousand hours thinking 24 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: about this thing. So happy to happy to dive in. 25 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: Here is it? What would you agree that? Um? Almost 26 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: the more that you learn, the more you realize that 27 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: you still don't know. There are no experts in bitcoin. Uh. 28 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: And it's probably just you know, the amount of like 29 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 1: disciplines it takes to understand bitcoin or really just kind 30 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: of understand it from a certain angle. But you know, 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: whether it's finance, the history, the history of money, economics, 32 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: computer science like cryptography and that that whole history. Uh, 33 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: you know, there's there's no one the energy revolution that's 34 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: happening with bitcoin mining. Like if you claim to be 35 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: an expert on bitcoin, you're life you're lying because this 36 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: this is a different beast. But yeah, I mean I've 37 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: I've put him a little bit of time in terms 38 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: of trying to understand the finance side of it, you know, 39 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: economic side of it. And I have to say it's 40 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: a little bit surreal being on because I've learned a 41 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: lot about kind of finance and Nikon from from your 42 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 1: YouTube videos. Thank back in the day. So I appreciate it, 43 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you. Yeah. I love. I love to 44 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 1: focus on As you said, you kind of named all 45 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: those different disciplines that you kind of have to know. 46 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: I kind of like the political and like the historical 47 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: side of things. Um, and so that's kind of where 48 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: I focus. And you found yourself liking the analytics side. 49 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 1: And uh, that's cool. Right. It's like this thread that 50 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 1: kind of weaves through society and and it and it 51 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: kind of intersects all of us differently, and that's that's good. 52 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: That's important, right, And we can all kind of hit 53 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: these different areas. So you're kind of on this analytic side, um, 54 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: which I want to dig into. Um. But but but 55 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 1: but why why analytics for you? Like, h were you 56 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: like a math nerd? You don't look like a math. Yeah. 57 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 1: Definitely definitely was the numbers guy growing up. Um, but 58 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 1: really kind of just stumbled upon bitcoin more from like 59 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: the finance side of things. I was I wanted to be. Uh. 60 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: I was just good with numbers in high school and 61 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: I'm like, all right, well i'll do business. Um. And 62 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: so I started reading about the stock market and really 63 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: just like very very simple things um and stumbled upon 64 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency bitcoin, didn't didn't know the difference in in late 65 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: I'm still in high school at this point, UM, and 66 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: just from a financial assets side of things, not like 67 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 1: had had no other kind of computer background or even 68 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: like monetary economic background. It was just like, oh, this 69 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: is a thing that trades on charts, and I'm eighteen seventeen, 70 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: eighteen years old and it makes sense. Uh and dove 71 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: down it like down in the rabbit hole, really really hard. Uh. 72 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: And kind of the transparency of bitcoin, the you know 73 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 1: that the analytic side, I mean, the whole network is 74 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: completely auditable. UM. That was very interesting to me as 75 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 1: well as being kind of from the finance side of things, 76 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: like I went to one year of university setting UH 77 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: finance and economics at UH the University of Vermont Business School, UM, 78 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: and I dropped out to pursue bitcoin because it seemed 79 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: like it was this this area that you know, it 80 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: was an arena of ideas and credit it didn't matter 81 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: one bit. And I was like, all right, well, you know, 82 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: why am I trying to get some some business degree 83 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: when I'm like spending all my time learning and thinking 84 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: about this thing. Anyway, you don't need any sort of 85 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: credentials or or degree. You just you know, put out 86 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: put out content or or not even put out content. 87 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: But just like again, it's their arena of ideas. This 88 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: is everybody is trying to provide value here. Yeah, this 89 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: is where the world is shifting right now. I was 90 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: on a on a Twitter spaces with Preston Pitch and 91 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: somebody was saying, Hey, we need to figure out ways 92 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: that we can go educate all these lawmakers and stuff 93 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 1: and educate people so they can really dig into bitcoin. 94 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: And Preston said, I'm not interested in that. He's like, 95 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: I put out content. If you want it, it's here, 96 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: come and engage with it. He said. But this is 97 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: really going to be a shift in the world because 98 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: what we have, this system, this feat money system we 99 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: have today is built off elitism. Right, if you can 100 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: be close to the money supply, you can be And 101 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: I used the word elitism like I wouldn't hire any 102 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: of them to run in my run work in my business. Um, 103 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: they have no quality skills. But because they're close to 104 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: the money, so why they're good of politics? They can 105 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: get ahead and Um, what's what we have now is 106 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 1: we have the shift to meritocracy right where our hard 107 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 1: work and our effort can get us ahead. And so 108 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,119 Speaker 1: that's what Preston was saying, is like, look, my content 109 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: is there. If they want it, they can come get it. 110 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: But what we're seeing is we're ending the money printer 111 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: elitism and those people are not going to get on 112 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: the new program. And so we're gonna see wealth shift 113 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: to people who are putting the work in um. And 114 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 1: I love that perspective. That's kind of what you did, Dylan. 115 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 1: I mean you, uh, you you found something that you're 116 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: interested in. You dug in and and and Yeah, to 117 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: be good at something you have to put that time 118 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: commitment in which what you did and in college gets 119 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: you to think general about everything, right like uh, forty 120 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: you're a dabbler, forty five minutes here, forty five minutes there, 121 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: an hour or they're kind of a thing. So um, 122 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: So you look at the Entian data. Now you mentioned 123 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: it's the only Bitcoin is the only thing that has 124 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,799 Speaker 1: an audible like auditable data. Um. And that's pretty interesting. 125 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 1: So when you look at financial markets, if you're studying 126 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: energy markets, oil markets, stock market, etcetera, you don't have 127 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: the data that you have with bitcoin. Is that maybe 128 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: something that kind of attracted you a little bit? Yeah, 129 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: I mean I really just as I came to understand 130 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: the properties of bitcoin and and the things like you know, 131 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 1: running a node, what is a node? How the bitcoin 132 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: network operates? Absolute scarcity? Why has that never been a 133 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,799 Speaker 1: thing before? How did bitcoin solve that? How did Satoshi 134 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 1: Nockamoto solve that problem of the double spend problem, of 135 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: of absolute scarcity, of digital scarcity? Um? And so when 136 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: I came to understand all those things, I was really 137 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: kind of my mind was blown, and I realized I 138 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: needed I was in college. I was like, I need 139 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 1: as much bitcoin as I can. So I dropped out 140 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: and I didn't do a bitcoin job I had. I 141 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 1: was just like, you know, passionately reading and learning in 142 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 1: my free time. But I was like doing manual labor, 143 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: Like I wasn't doing bitcoin analysis or anything full time remotely, 144 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 1: Like I was listening to podcasts of Mark Moss and 145 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: Preston Pitch while I was while I was wiring outlets. 146 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: Like it was like a very you know, humbling kind 147 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: of uh you know, nine twelve months. But um, as 148 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: I kind of consumed all that information free, I was 149 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 1: I started to uh contribute a little bit more and more, 150 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: and Twitter d M turned into a role kind of 151 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 1: um doing some of the stuff that I really like. 152 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: But in terms of why it fascinated me, um, I 153 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: don't know. Just like the on chain kind of analytics 154 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: and it gets a bad rap or I think maybe recently, 155 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: especially in draw downs. The thing that launching analytics is 156 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: so cool, uh, is that well, one, if you're just 157 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: talking about price, it could be about mining, hash rate, 158 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: literally any of the economics of the Bitcoin network, transaction fees, like, 159 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: it doesn't have to be price analysis. That's one in 160 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: terms of watching analytics. And two is that we can 161 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: we can quantify supply side dynamics. And so if you 162 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: look at like any any of the parabolic bitcoin runs 163 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: throughout history, it got to a point where the supply 164 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: side had increased so much there were so like the 165 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: hogglers of last Resort, Like you can feel that when 166 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 1: people are like I'm not selling, I'm buying more with 167 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: on chain instead of it being anecdotal, you can see 168 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: it and it's and it's verifiable and seeming like, oh 169 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 1: my god, Like of the bitcoin supplies is by people 170 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: that haven't spent it in six months and so like 171 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: any marginal buyer comes in, like we go parabolic when 172 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: a wall of money hits not a lot of supply, 173 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: and with on chain, we can like literally see that 174 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: accumulation of the years of accumulation and then like a 175 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: six to twelve month bull run where all of this 176 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: kind of hoddle supplied distributes and so like I'm just 177 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: naming an example, but it's really fascinating for the first 178 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: time because we can see all of this happen, uh, 179 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: and with full transparency and then mutability, like it's it's there, 180 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: it's recorded forever. Um. If you ask how many U 181 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: S dollars are in circulation, No, it's credit based, right, 182 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: there's there's euro dollars, there's it's it's all fractional reserved, 183 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: like no one knows how much gold even even like 184 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: like sometimes it's like in the equity markets, it's like 185 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: how many shares are outstanding? No one don't even know. 186 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,079 Speaker 1: Like GameStop had more shares shorted than there was shares 187 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: that's standing. It's like how does that happen? Um? So 188 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: with bitcoin, right, the trends, like that's just the transparency 189 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: of it all and the analytics side. That framework kind 190 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: of fascinated me. So, UM, I want to talk about 191 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 1: what are maybe some of the one or two or 192 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:06,319 Speaker 1: your top favorite UM indicators to look at on chain. UM, 193 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 1: I want to talk about how we look at those 194 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: and kind of differences and and what they really mean. 195 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: And then I want to take that and then look 196 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: at that and compared against this macro backdrop that we 197 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 1: have going on with the Phoedero reserve and these FED 198 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:19,719 Speaker 1: meetings they had this week and this kind of stuff. UM, 199 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio with Dylan Leclair. You're listening to 200 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: the Mark Moss Show talking about bitcoin, talking about on 201 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: chain data with Dylan Leclair. UM, we'll be back in 202 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: a second. Do not go away, all right? You are 203 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: back listening to the Mark Moa Show and we're talking 204 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,839 Speaker 1: about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in this decentralized revolution that is 205 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: happening right now. I am UM in the studio with 206 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: Dylan Leclair. You can find him on Twitter at Dylan 207 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: Leclair Underscore and UM. He's a market analyst with Bitcoin 208 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:50,359 Speaker 1: Magazine looking at specifically mostly on chain data, which is uh, 209 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 1: looking at the data about coins moving, how old there are, 210 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: things like that and there's a lot of information we 211 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: get from that now, Dylan. Um, before the break, I 212 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 1: said that I was hoping that maybe you'd give us 213 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 1: maybe your top couple things that maybe do you think 214 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 1: are important or that people should look at, Like maybe 215 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: it's m v r V or something like that. Do 216 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: you have a couple like that? Yeah, I mean you're 217 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 1: that on the money that That was the one I 218 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: was going to throw out. So with bitcoin, right the 219 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: full transparency of the network, we can essentially see what 220 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: coins moved when, and we can match that up with 221 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: what the price of bitcoin was when that like what 222 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: what was bitwin trading at when those coins are technically 223 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 1: they're called u t xos when they moved. Um. So 224 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: we can see like do things like say, what's the 225 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: average cost basis of every coin in the network? Um? 226 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: And so right now currently that average cost basis bitcoin 227 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 1: like the on chain average price when bitcoin was last moved. 228 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: So that means you look at a coin and the 229 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: last time it moved and what the price was when 230 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: it got to that wallet or that address. Yeah, exactly. 231 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 1: So if you want to think of it, maybe this 232 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 1: is an easier way to think of it. So there's 233 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: a market cap is circulating supply times the current price. 234 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: What we what we can do is we can have 235 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: what's called the realized market cap or it's called realized cap, 236 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 1: where it's the circulating supply and the price the coins 237 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: last moved. But for every individual coin, every single setoshi, 238 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 1: we can see when it was last moved with with 239 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 1: perfect record, and so the where the market cap is, 240 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: say what is it today, seven hundred billions something around there, 241 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: uh seven billion, The realized cap figures like fourty um 242 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: and so we can see so that translates to like 243 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 1: thirty six thousand dollar bitcoin dollar realized price UM. Just 244 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: it's the same metric divided by circulating supply, and we 245 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: can just like do things like take a ratio of 246 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: those two metrics price versus. That's almost like if you 247 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: want to think of it as like the intrinsic value 248 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: or the subjective value of the network from every hoddler, 249 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: we can kind of see the bull and bear cycles 250 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: play out with this with the ratio of these two metrics. 251 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: With that what's it called market value to realize value, 252 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 1: you brought it up first, you know your stuff, and 253 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: the r V ratio you can kind of see these 254 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 1: bull and bear cycles where price runs way way ahead 255 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: of its on chain basically like on chain cost basis 256 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 1: on chain value. Uh. And as as more money comes 257 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 1: in and more those coins kind of get further distributed, 258 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 1: what happens is that that realized cap rises. So, if 259 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 1: you like, if you're thinking of bitcoin as an asset 260 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: monetizing just to centralized monetary asset, air dropped under the 261 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: world and No. Nine, what's been happening since? Well, people 262 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: say it's it's it's so volatile, But if you just 263 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: look at realized price, it's in a log scale, it's 264 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 1: going it's just bending upwards, flatlining for a couple of years, 265 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 1: bending upwards, flat laning for a couple of years, and 266 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 1: it's pretty remarkable to see. Uh. And it kind of 267 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: strips away from that day to day volatility that that people, 268 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: you know, that gives bitcoin kind of a bad rapp 269 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: to people that aren't too aware of what's happening. So 270 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 1: if I take that data that m v R V 271 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 1: ratio um and I look at that data, um, what 272 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: does it tell me? So it says, Okay, the realized 273 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: value or the market cap value or whatever, last time 274 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:04,160 Speaker 1: those coins move is at um. So that's kind of 275 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,679 Speaker 1: like that sets the floor. So that means most people 276 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 1: are sitting in profit, most of those coins are in 277 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: profits day. And so then maybe you would extrapolate that 278 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 1: to say that, um, until bitcoin breaks below that level, UM, 279 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: there may not be this increased pressure to sell. Yeah. 280 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: So bitcoin is dropped below it's it's realized value only 281 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: like I think three or four times in history, and 282 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: they've basically it's been um, it's not the exact you know, 283 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: didn't bottom tick exactly at one point. Oh, and that 284 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: that market value to realize value ratio. But really anytime 285 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:37,719 Speaker 1: it's dropped below it's realized price and v r V 286 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: below one, it's been a generational buying opportunity in a 287 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: bear market. And so if we want to think of it, 288 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: like what's the lowest bitcoin you can drop, Well, no 289 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 1: one knows, but if it God's twenty four thousand, you're 290 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 1: buying it at the in terms of it's like relative valuation, 291 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: you're buying it at like the first percentile of of 292 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 1: if historical valuations. UM. And so that's just kind of 293 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: how you can think of it in terms of relative value. 294 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: And during bull markets, that'll that'll go out to five, six, 295 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: seven times. It's it's realized price or it's like true 296 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:06,719 Speaker 1: price if you want to think of it like that. 297 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: So you can just kind of see like relative market 298 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: valuations compared to like historical values. Okay, so um in 299 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: March when bitcoin just dropped right off of a cliff, Um, 300 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: what did it go down to thirty or something like that? 301 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 1: Was it below that level? It was I think the 302 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: realized price there was like about dred so um, and 303 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: and it was basically flatlined. It was also reached like 304 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 1: about four thousand at the top of So even though 305 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: bit win drew down in this huge boon bus, that 306 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: realized price actually like it topped out around January and 307 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: was flat for a couple of years. So it did 308 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,479 Speaker 1: drop below that in the in that March flash crash, 309 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: which again marked generational body. So um, this is just 310 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: one metric, but we kind of see, like you can 311 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: you can really visualize well with this ratio the boom 312 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: and bus cycles, bitcoins monetization phases. So how close are 313 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: we to that generational buying moment at this point? As 314 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: or huthing, it would be like, yeah, it's around two 315 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: thousand and and you know, I doubt we get there 316 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: unless we see some huge macro economic liquidity shock um, 317 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: which honestly might be possible with with the FED trying 318 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: to taper this, you know, bond market ponzi. Essentially, I 319 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: don't know how far they get, but that's kind of 320 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: more of a macro discussion less than an on chain discussion. Yeah, 321 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: I want to jump to that, but before we do, 322 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: is there one other indicator or on chain metric that 323 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 1: you like to look at a lot? Yeah? I really 324 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 1: like looking at Glass now classifies or quantifies long term 325 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: and short term holders. It's kind of this arbitrary threshold 326 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: that's not so arbitrary and it's more statistical reasoning. But 327 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 1: long term holders a hundred fifty five days and the 328 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: coin waits into that um into that value as a 329 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: long term holder. Long story short. You can see during 330 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: bowl and bear markets this huge kind of accumulation phase 331 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: by long term holder um as coins age into that bucket, 332 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: if you want to think of it like that. But 333 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: you can see during consolidation phases or bear markets, long 334 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: term holder supply just bends upwards. You just it's basically 335 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: like no one's selling and and and you know this 336 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: group of people around the world that's continually growing. They 337 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: continue to buy. Uh. And during during bull markets or 338 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: when bitoin goes parabolic, you see some of those coins distribute. 339 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: But it's really interesting because eventually it gets to a 340 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: point and whatever that point is who no one knows, 341 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: but the dollar BTC ex change rate eventually gets to 342 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: the point where there's a supply squeeze, like and that's 343 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: kind of a meme like, oh, this's is on chain, 344 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: it's a supply squeeze, But the reality is, UH, it's 345 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: all supply and demand. And if we see this supply side, 346 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 1: which on chain quantifies, continue to grow, eventually there's that 347 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: marginal seller becomes exhausted and so we kind of see 348 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: some of that accumulation starting again. UH. And for the 349 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: last couple of months you saw more of a distribution 350 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: effect that macro fears kind of scared everybody way, but 351 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: it's just you know, if you look at those charts 352 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:04,280 Speaker 1: over time, and I try to post some of them 353 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: my Twitter feed, the long and short term holder supply, 354 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: it's relative supply and all of that is just you 355 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,199 Speaker 1: see the bull and bear markets in the data, in 356 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: the accumulation and distribution, UH, and why the bull markets 357 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: eventually happened. That's kind of that wall of money. It's 358 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: not a lot of supply the bitcoin. So those are 359 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: probably my two favorite metrics. UM. You know, you can 360 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: look at the rate of change of long term and 361 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: short term holders, or the total supply relative supply, that 362 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 1: sort of stuff. So I want to ask you, UM, 363 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: one of the biggest pieces of fud fear, uncertainty, doubt 364 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: that I hear people throw out on on on bitcoin 365 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: is that UM. Yeah, it's all concentrated at the top. UM. 366 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: Right at the most most of the bitcoin is owned 367 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 1: by a couple of addresses, and so somebody who looks 368 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: at all the address data, I want to I want 369 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: to have you answer that, UM. And then I want 370 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: to get into UM, like I said, some of this 371 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: macro stuff and see maybe what the macro backdrop looked 372 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 1: at some of these other cycles UM and data and 373 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 1: where we are today and what you think about that. 374 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: And you're listening to the Markmas Show. We're talking about 375 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: big coin, talking about the decentralized revolution. I'm in the 376 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:06,120 Speaker 1: studio with Dylan Leclair. We are talking about on chain 377 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: data really of bitcoin, and then we're compared to the backdrop. 378 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: I'll be back with more. Don't go away, all right, 379 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: welcome back. You're listening to the Mark Moss Show, and 380 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: we're talking about bitcoin. We're talking about this decentralized revolution 381 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: that we are witnessing right now. I'm in the studio 382 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 1: with Dylan Leclair. He's a market analyst with Bitcoin magazine 383 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: U t x U x t O Management. Um, he's 384 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: kind of a we don't like. We don't like labels 385 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: and bitcoin, but I'd say he's a he's a specialist, 386 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: we'll call it that. And looking at this unchained data now, Um, 387 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: you were explaining two of your favorite indicators to look at, 388 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 1: m v r V and long term versus short term 389 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: holders Hoddlers. Um, I was gonna ask you about a 390 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,959 Speaker 1: piece of fud real quick, which is um that all 391 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: the majority of the bitcoin is held by a couple 392 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 1: of addresses. UM, give us the short version and why 393 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 1: that probably is not true or is it true? The 394 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: first thing to know is that one address does not 395 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,879 Speaker 1: equal one person. Uh, and oftentimes actually the biggest addresses. 396 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 1: Although it's it is true that there are some some 397 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: people out there with a lot, a whole lot of bitcoin. Um, 398 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: just from understanding that and and not losing it in 399 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 1: the early days. Uh, the reality is that these huge, 400 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 1: these huge addresses. I mean, there's two point five million 401 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: bitcoin on exchanges, and so you see a lot of 402 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,200 Speaker 1: you know, the biggest addresses are actually um, not one person, 403 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: but like ten thousand people, a million people, millions of people. 404 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: You know, no one knows bitcoin is just as pseudonymous, 405 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: so you can you can see a lot of these 406 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: addresses are are exchange balances. And when anyone presents the 407 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: data in kind of a malicious way saying x amount 408 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: of bitcoin is held by the top x amount of addresses, 409 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,879 Speaker 1: and it's a really shocking number, the reality is that 410 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,920 Speaker 1: bitcoin is probably uh, you know, on behalf of tens 411 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: of millions, hundreds of millions of people. If you just 412 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: think about say gray scale bitcoin has six thousand bitcoin 413 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: and their trust, but that trust is owned by institutions 414 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 1: and retail investors and and all the like. So I 415 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,159 Speaker 1: think that's the food there. It's it's a little bit uninformed. 416 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: It's like saying, uh, the Federal Reserve owns of all dollars. 417 00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: You know, that's almost like probably more accurate if you're 418 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:27,199 Speaker 1: thinking about food m yeah, good point. Um. All right, 419 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: so I want I want to kind of take so 420 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: the on chain data, I guess um indicators usually are 421 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: like lagging indicators, so they tell you what happened, but 422 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: they're not always leading telling you what will happen. UM. 423 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,119 Speaker 1: Would you label on chain data as a lagging indicator 424 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: or do you think there's a way to use it 425 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: as a leading and more of a predictive indicator. Yeah, 426 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: I mean I would say it's both. The thing about 427 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: on chain is um it can be a leading indicator 428 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: in terms of like so we can take some of 429 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: these this data on the supply side data. Uh um, 430 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 1: you know, I just kind of gave the most basic one, 431 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: but we can. There's all sorts of kind of top 432 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: slash bottom indicators, and what they do is really just 433 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: try to quantify like risk reward in terms of like 434 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 1: allocating to bitcoin. Um. So obviously, like, uh, what happened 435 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 1: in the past, there is no indication of what's gonna 436 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 1: happen in the future, but you can kind of see 437 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: with a lot of these on chain metrics, like a 438 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,959 Speaker 1: relative when it's good to buy bitcoin versus when it's not, 439 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 1: and it's good all the time. If you bought bitcoin, 440 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: if you bought the local top quote unquote of any 441 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: of the past bitcoin bubbles except you know the Uh, 442 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 1: then then you're doing you're doing all right. Uh. There 443 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: is no top ultimately in bitcoin, I believe, and it's 444 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: all just local tops. But you can kind of quantify 445 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: like Hoddler conviction and you can run and say relative 446 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: to price and come up with, uh, you know, a 447 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: ratio of how attractive it is or a metric of 448 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: how attractive it is to allocate. And so that's just 449 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: one of the things with on chain data, and we 450 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: can quantify the supply side so when like you know, 451 00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: the supply side dynamics are are very attractive, still needs 452 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: demand to come in, but we can we can see 453 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 1: when those times are, which is one of the cool 454 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 1: things about it. You know. Um, a lot of people 455 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 1: say that like historically speaking, which we don't have very 456 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 1: much historical precedents, but um, about eighteen months after the 457 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: having cycle seems to be where the top is, and um, 458 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: November is the top as of now. We never know 459 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: the top until we look backwards on it. And I 460 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: guess there's as you said, local tops different time frames, Um, 461 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: but it looks like November was the top at least 462 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: for now um and it was eighteen months after the 463 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: having anything in on Chane data that that says anything 464 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,760 Speaker 1: about that, Yeah, if anything, I think the both, like 465 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 1: all of really price action was driven by I mean, 466 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: there was capital influence, but the tops and local bottoms 467 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 1: were exacerbated by derivative price action. So uh, this isn't 468 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: really on Jane data, but it's a big part of 469 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: my day to day analysis is what's happening with Basically 470 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 1: UM derivative bets on on the bit wins dom markets 471 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: and so like you can for instant take your bitcoin 472 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 1: and you can acquire that our margin or leverage it's 473 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 1: called in the bitcoin market on top of that and 474 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: bet on the price of bitcoin to go up or down. 475 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: And that's basical that's what's called the bitcoin derivative. It's 476 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 1: a futures instrument UM and a bitcoin. There's quarterly futures, 477 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 1: so you can buy, say I'm gonna bet that the 478 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: price of bitcoin is going up in you know, April, 479 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: but it's also perpetual futures. It's basically a never ending 480 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: futures contract that rolls over UM and so so like 481 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: you know. That's that's where a lot of the volatility 482 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 1: comes from. It's more so about traders were very very 483 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:41,400 Speaker 1: leverage long paying annualized rates just just to be long 484 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,920 Speaker 1: bitcoin on margin, and then at the bottom you were 485 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 1: getting paid in in like say July when bitcoin is 486 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,400 Speaker 1: twenty nine thousand. It was the traders were so far 487 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: positioned the other way that you were getting paid like 488 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: a annualized rate to long bitcoin. So like these are 489 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: some of the things where like you know, the data, 490 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: the past cycles, the litter just like the coded into 491 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: the bitcoin source code, like that, the having event where 492 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 1: the blocks stuffs he gets chopped in half. Those things 493 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,880 Speaker 1: can't really predict all of this kind of human greed 494 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: and emotion that's coming. Like that's in the crypto native 495 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: asset class as well as like just kind of like 496 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: it's development as a macroeconomic asset class. Right, Like this 497 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: recent sell off, the correlation within the NASTAC it's been 498 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 1: near one to one for about a couple of weeks um, 499 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 1: and so that there's a reason for that. Yeah, So 500 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: I just want to remind everybody as we're talking about 501 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,879 Speaker 1: these indicators, there's never one indicator that's conclusive you need 502 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: to look at a bunch of different indicators from a 503 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: bunch of different places to try to get the best 504 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,400 Speaker 1: idea that you can. And when you see a bunch 505 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,359 Speaker 1: of indicators from a bunch of different places all saying 506 00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: the same thing, it gives you a little bit more confidence. 507 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 1: But even still then it's anybody's guess about the future. Now, um, 508 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 1: jumping out a little bit. So we have this on 509 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: chain data and leading lagging indicators, but then we have 510 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 1: this Federal Reserve and this macro environment that's going on. 511 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 1: The Fed met this week and I think kind of 512 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: came out pretty hawkish, said they're sticking the course. You know, 513 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: they're gonna taper, finished tapering by March, and then they're 514 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 1: gonna start raising rates. Um. And that seems to have 515 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 1: a big effect. So then, um, do you think that is? 516 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 1: You know, at this point seems like it's what's driving 517 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 1: the market. As you just said, I mean this this liquidity, 518 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 1: it's kept the ratio of the you know, SMP pretty close. Yeah, 519 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 1: I would think that. I mean what you saw is 520 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 1: basically everybody kind of risked off. After Powell comes off 521 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: and says, yeah, we were wrong, we were very wrong. 522 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: Inflation is not transitory, and it's in their mandate. You know, 523 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: that's there's an employment mandate and inflation mandate. We can 524 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 1: debate the merits or or just like you know, of 525 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: those two mandates and how effective chasing those two are. 526 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 1: And I think we both say it's probably uh, not 527 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 1: effective at all, um, and actually like it's pretty pretty 528 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 1: bad that that we have essentially planned uh kind of 529 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: economy around these two variables. It's horrible regardless, Uh, I 530 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: think what we see here is that a lot of 531 00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: people are fearing um, basically a deflation event or a 532 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: disinflationary event in terms of like the overall credit in 533 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 1: the system, right, like what is March of what is 534 00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: two thousand eight? What is that? In terms of like 535 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: why did that happen? It wasn't just people people started 536 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 1: to sell because they were scared, No, it was like 537 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,719 Speaker 1: more of a mathematical driven thing in terms of the 538 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: fiat units in the system and the obligations to dead 539 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 1: obligations against that. Right, and like when financial assets fall 540 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 1: and there's a lot and there's an asset liability mismatch 541 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: on everyone's balance sheet, well there's a de leveraging event 542 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: and it just cascades until the FED backstops at all 543 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: and kind of comes in. And so I think ultimately 544 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 1: we're going to see another one of those. Is that 545 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: in two Who knows? But I think in terms of 546 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 1: the FIAT environment, we've never been in a worse place 547 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 1: in terms of how much debt is out there that 548 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: did g d P. You can look at interest experience. 549 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: I mean the national debts twenty nine trillion. Global debt 550 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 1: to GDP is probably around fo. We're in a debt spiral. 551 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,160 Speaker 1: There's no way to ever pay it back because ultimately, 552 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: like money is created through lending up, if we're going 553 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 1: to see another deflationary event, how do you protect yourself 554 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 1: against infinite counterparty risk? And if they reinflate the system 555 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 1: after that, how do you protect yourself against the delustion 556 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: inflation risk? And I think we both kind of have 557 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 1: come to an answer there. Yeah, that's a great question 558 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: that we will answer in just a minute. Because there 559 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: is a deflationary crash, but there's also an inflationary crash, 560 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 1: and most people don't realize that. They just look at 561 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: their asset prices falling, but they could also inflate. But 562 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 1: then the purchasing powers decimated, so those both both can happen. 563 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,719 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark Mo Show. We're talking about bitcoin, 564 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 1: the decentralized revolution. We're talking about on chain data with 565 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,919 Speaker 1: Dylan Leclair. We're gonna be back and talk about how 566 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,680 Speaker 1: to protect yourself with more. So don't go away, Hey, 567 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Ma Show 568 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: and we are talking about bitcoin in the studio with 569 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 1: Dylan Leclair, talking about on chain data and the macro environment. 570 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 1: And so before the break, Dylan, you were saying, how, um, 571 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 1: you know, we're We've never been in a worse situation. Um. 572 00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 1: The FEDS tools of interest rates and monetary supply are 573 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 1: kind of done. I mean interest rate through zero or 574 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,360 Speaker 1: negative in most parts of the world, and we have 575 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 1: so much debt we don't have to do with it. 576 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 1: Dollars of global debt has been created the last twenty months, 577 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 1: twenty four months, and it's almost like, you know, they 578 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 1: keep the if you look back through the last thirty 579 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 1: or forty years, Um, it's like the markets keep trying 580 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,359 Speaker 1: to de leverage and then they just keep pumping them 581 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 1: back up. And they try to deleverage, they pump back up, 582 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:22,560 Speaker 1: but every time they pump back up, it has to 583 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 1: get bigger. And now that debt is just so big 584 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 1: they can't manage it right, And it's like, uh, it's 585 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 1: like so high that when the top moves, it starts 586 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: getting out of control. And it seems to kind of 587 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: be where we're at. Um, you had said that, well, 588 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 1: you don't you know that there's going to be de 589 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 1: leverage at some point. We don't know when. I think 590 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: that's the question, right, Um, and then maybe there's some 591 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: ways to protect ourselves. So how do you think through that? Yeah, 592 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: I think ultimately and this comes this is kind of 593 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,720 Speaker 1: a completely different discipline than bitcoin itself, but more of 594 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: a monetary history kind of things like ultimately, I think 595 00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: we're at the end of the near the conclusion of 596 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: a long term debt cycle. So people kind of pittively 597 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: understand like the dead cycle, or more so like the 598 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 1: business cycle, right like, Okay, there's a boom and then 599 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: a bust like that just happens, like people don't really 600 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 1: question it. But these things, it's not like human productivity 601 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 1: just dropped by ten in a in a year on 602 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: a given year just out of randomness. It's it's it's 603 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 1: more so it's it's a boom and bust in the 604 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 1: credit system. It's a credit bubble and then ensuing uh, deflation. Right, 605 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: it's an inflation and deflation. And then so if you 606 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:28,880 Speaker 1: just look at say like the ten year treasury or 607 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: like interest rates the FED, the FED set interest rates 608 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: over the last fifty years, you'll see you'll see a 609 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 1: pretty clear pattern of just lower highes um. And so 610 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: what's this kind of showing is literally the debt cycles 611 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,480 Speaker 1: in action, and now at zero, we seem to be 612 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: at the conclusion of this. Right, the FEDS balance sheet 613 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: is ballooned since oh eight because there's no other interest 614 00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: rates were already at zero. So we've been at a 615 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 1: decade at zero, FEDS balance sheets at eight trillion and 616 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 1: growing um. And this is a global phenomenon. So what's 617 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 1: the conclusion of a debt cycle look like. Well, it's 618 00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 1: either a deflationary collapse back onto some sort of hard 619 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 1: backing where most of the people that thought they had 620 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,959 Speaker 1: an asset lose it um. But now with FIAT there 621 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,720 Speaker 1: is no backing. So it's either a deflationary collapse where 622 00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 1: everything unwinds to zero. Literally like the asset side of 623 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 1: your balance. It's falling, so you sell assets, your liability 624 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,239 Speaker 1: side is growing as a relative size, and it just 625 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,720 Speaker 1: cascades throughout the whole global economic system. Well that doesn't 626 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: seem really politically feasible over a long term time frame, right, 627 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: Like we can we can we can see this happening 628 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: over a couple of months. But ultimately there will be 629 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 1: a backstop because there has to be, right, just incentives 630 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 1: are aligned for their to not let the system collapse. 631 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 1: But if it does, you have you have some sort 632 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 1: of thing you can fall back upon. But if they 633 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: don't and they come in, they step in and they 634 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: print and they expand the money supply because they have to, 635 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: because that's how a fiat credit system works, well then 636 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: there's the delution effect. Right, things are getting more expensive 637 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 1: around you in that currency terms. So with bit colin, 638 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,560 Speaker 1: we kind of have the best of both worlds. We 639 00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: have an absolutely scarce monetary asset that is essentially engineered 640 00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,480 Speaker 1: with how they pin mining works and how the supply 641 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 1: istates works, engineered to increase its marginal costs forever or 642 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: as long as hash rates increasing, as long as there's 643 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 1: an economic consentive to mind bitcoin, which there is a 644 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: strong one. Monetize any waste energy around the world and 645 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 1: you can turn it into money. Um So, Bitcoin is 646 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,960 Speaker 1: engineered to be harder and harder to produce essentially forever. 647 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 1: And at the same time, we have a native property 648 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 1: right system built into it where you can actually self 649 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: custody your own asset. You don't need to trust a bank, 650 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,719 Speaker 1: you don't need to trust the government, you don't need 651 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: to trust the third party intermediary. Um So, in a 652 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: deflationary event, in an inflationary event. If you want to 653 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,720 Speaker 1: view these outcomes as binary, uh, you're doing you're doing yourself. 654 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: You know you're doing pretty well if you hold bitcoin. Uh. 655 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: And that's why I think, and I've been kind of 656 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 1: pushing this framework that everybody should hold at least a 657 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 1: little bit um if you want to secure your wealth 658 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:53,440 Speaker 1: and time into the future. Yeah, you know these boom 659 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 1: and bust cycles as you talk about these these credit cycles, Um, 660 00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 1: it's all fed driven. So if you go back and 661 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: look at charts, I mean you can look back through 662 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 1: hundreds of years and there's always booms and buss because 663 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 1: we're humans, human action, human nature. Um. I love an 664 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 1: ll ice cream. I want be all ice cream every day, 665 00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 1: but today I just want chocolate. I don't know why, right, 666 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 1: So we we things go in and out of favor, 667 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 1: we change our minds. Um. So so you know, well, shoot, 668 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: we made too much of an ill ice cream. Now 669 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: we don't have enough chocolate. And so there's there's a 670 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 1: natural cycle. But if you look back through a hundred 671 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: of years, you can see that it stayed, you know, 672 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 1: in a pretty small channel. But right at at at 673 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,840 Speaker 1: um when the Federal Reserve was created, I mean, they've 674 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 1: just gotten bigger and bigger and bigger if you look 675 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: at the markets compared to gold anyway. Um. And so 676 00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 1: the the boom and bust cycles are because they they 677 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 1: dump a bunch of currency units into the system and 678 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 1: it creates this big boom and then they kind of 679 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 1: gets too overheated, so then they suck it out and 680 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,120 Speaker 1: then it just pulls it back down and then they 681 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,320 Speaker 1: have next time they have to put even more in 682 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 1: and it gets bigger, and so each one just gets 683 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 1: bigger and bigger. So what I would just say is that, um, 684 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: while it is a little bit natural, because like I said, 685 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 1: human nature, UM, it's gotten way exaggerated because of the 686 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 1: photos and The problem is that we don't know when 687 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,440 Speaker 1: they're going to decide to suck the money out of 688 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,760 Speaker 1: the system. Right, So, like we've done the best that 689 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 1: we can, and we've tried to keep our head afloat 690 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 1: during that inflationary growth um, and then and then all 691 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 1: of a sudden they can just pull it back out. UM. 692 00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: So shoot, I guess either way we're protected with bitcoin. UM. 693 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: At this point, we're stuck trying to be a psychic 694 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,600 Speaker 1: because like, I don't know what they're gonna do. Right, 695 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: at some point they're going to have to step in 696 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,000 Speaker 1: and pump it back up. But will that be at drop? 697 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 1: That's kind of what history tells us, right, will it 698 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 1: be a drop? So if you had to, if you 699 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 1: had to consult your crystal ball, Dylan, which I know 700 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 1: you don't have one, I wish you. I'm sure you 701 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 1: wish you did. Uh. What do you think? What do 702 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 1: you think happens over the next year two years? I 703 00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 1: think you know, if you're just looking at historical equity valuations, 704 00:33:54,920 --> 00:34:00,480 Speaker 1: we're still at outrageously high equity market to just GDP readings, 705 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:04,719 Speaker 1: I think it's like a hundred or something, pretty pretty crazy. Uh. 706 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 1: And yeah, we live in a globalized world, so there 707 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 1: might be some flaws in the reading, but just you know, 708 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:12,320 Speaker 1: whether it's a pe rate here, right, we're historically overvalued, 709 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 1: and equities we saw we saw this year there's a 710 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 1: hundred billion dollar car maker with zero revenue like this 711 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 1: is this is the type of thing you see at 712 00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,080 Speaker 1: the end of everything bubble. So in terms of how 713 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,720 Speaker 1: far conequities or even like say housing, you see mortgage 714 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 1: rates start to go up at the FED stops buying 715 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 1: mortgage rate uh mortgage backed securities, which they've been doing 716 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,800 Speaker 1: at a forty billion a month clip for the past 717 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 1: like sixteen eighteen months. What what you know? What happens 718 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: after that, Well, we'll have to see. But I think 719 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,840 Speaker 1: at a certain point as a pain threshold in markets 720 00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,720 Speaker 1: where uh, it kind of cascades and gets out of control. 721 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 1: And so I think the Fed doesn't wants to wants 722 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,839 Speaker 1: to kind of let the market deflate a little bit, 723 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,400 Speaker 1: let let it pull back more So with just words, right, 724 00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 1: they haven't even cut interest rates yet, haven't even hyped 725 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,920 Speaker 1: interest rates. They're still at zero and the markets freaking 726 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 1: out that they might go to fifty basis points, which 727 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 1: is kind of laughable in real terms. But I think 728 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,839 Speaker 1: ultimately real yields can't go above zero. And so if 729 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 1: the bomb market starts to sell off, if literally every 730 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:16,120 Speaker 1: asset sells off, we're gonna see some really wacky stuff happened. 731 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,880 Speaker 1: I mean, we're in late stage FIAT in in my 732 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 1: humble opinion, just in the historical terms, we've never been 733 00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 1: in a bigger, bigger global everything asset bubble ever um, 734 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,359 Speaker 1: And so I guess you kind of have to think 735 00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:31,359 Speaker 1: to yourself, what's the other side look like? And trying 736 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 1: to you know, interpret what tide Drone power wears on 737 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,800 Speaker 1: a Wednesday is kind of tough. But if you understand 738 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:39,719 Speaker 1: the endgame, uh, and where this is all going in 739 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:41,600 Speaker 1: terms of you know, we're going to tell our kids 740 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: one day that, yeah, the whole world watched her own 741 00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,359 Speaker 1: power or one guy say what the price of money 742 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:48,840 Speaker 1: was going to be next week. Um, that's gonna be 743 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: obsoleted eventually, But it's a process, and so you know, 744 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 1: keeping that long term vision uh in mind, Uh, I 745 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:58,719 Speaker 1: think is important. And you know there's gonna be volatility, 746 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 1: not just in Bitcoin but in everything as this this 747 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 1: everything a bub both the tracks and expands and and 748 00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 1: it's like almost like a system kind of dye. Yeah. Yeah, 749 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 1: that's a good point. Um. The one thing that we 750 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,239 Speaker 1: also also have to keep in mind is that the 751 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,719 Speaker 1: law of diminishing returns kicks in and so in the 752 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:19,239 Speaker 1: Kinsey And system of this uh non never ending monetary stimulus. Um, 753 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,560 Speaker 1: there's a Kinsey And multiplayer, which basically means that what 754 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,120 Speaker 1: they're trying to do is if they lose a dollar 755 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,800 Speaker 1: from the economy, they want to borrow fifty cents to 756 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,320 Speaker 1: get the dollars growth. Once a nation gets over to GDP, 757 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 1: that multiplayer goes down to a sense where they're not 758 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 1: getting enough growth anymore. So now for fifty cents are 759 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,680 Speaker 1: getting cents of growth, and then fifty cents of growth, 760 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 1: and then finally they're getting for fifty cents are getting 761 00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,680 Speaker 1: thirty cents of growth, and then they're just digging themselves 762 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 1: deeper in the whole. So it's not like they can 763 00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: just keep this going forever. At some point the music 764 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:48,040 Speaker 1: stops and that they just don't get that growth. So Um, anyway, 765 00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,360 Speaker 1: interesting stuff, Dylan, thanks so much for listening. You're listening 766 00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:53,399 Speaker 1: to the Markma Show. We've been talking about bitcoin. We've 767 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,439 Speaker 1: been in the studio with Dylan Leclair. You can find 768 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:59,640 Speaker 1: him on Twitter at Dylan Leclair Underscore and uh he's 769 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,879 Speaker 1: he's a contributor market analyst for Bitcoin Magazine. Does great work. 770 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 1: You should give him a follow. Um, that's what we 771 00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,040 Speaker 1: got for you today with bitcoin and you know how 772 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,040 Speaker 1: to protect yourselves. Thanks for listening.