WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jeffrey Rosenberg & Eric Balchunas

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Sing my best idea and we welcome all of you.

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<v Speaker 2>Two ideas from today's show, and they're very different ideas,

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<v Speaker 2>but yet they all close down to mathematics first in

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<v Speaker 2>an economics, investment, finance, and even a body of mathematics

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<v Speaker 2>and international relations. This is about Blackrock. Eric Belchunis on

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<v Speaker 2>Lawrence Fink and their huge commitment to the bitcoin market,

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<v Speaker 2>But first the actual use of mathematics at Blackrock. Jeffrey

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<v Speaker 2>Rosenberg is absolutely wonderful, prodigious mathematics out of Minnesota, out

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<v Speaker 2>of Wisconsin. And then on the acclaimed Tupper School at

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<v Speaker 2>Carnegie Mellon. We got into the weeds. I mean, I'm sorry,

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<v Speaker 2>or five people drove off the New York State Thruway

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<v Speaker 2>listen to this. I mean, I hope you're okay. But

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<v Speaker 2>Jeffrey Rosenberg here on this strange word in mathematics, uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, it's interesting time you talk a lot about,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the math and the science that we use,

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<v Speaker 3>and a lot of the math and the science that

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<v Speaker 3>we use is the mathematics of uncertainty rights. It's using

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<v Speaker 3>probability and statistics and risk models to try to quantify uncertainty,

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<v Speaker 3>because that's really what it's about. You know, the cop

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<v Speaker 3>Douglass function is nice. It gives you a very certain

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<v Speaker 3>form with a very uncertain input. And that's a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of what we see in kind of the mathematics of

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<v Speaker 3>economics is that there's a there's a proposal of how

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<v Speaker 3>the economy works, and it's very nice and clean. The

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<v Speaker 3>problem is a lot of the inputs are unknown, and

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<v Speaker 3>that's really what we're dealing with. Whether it's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>the role of AI, the role of technology in changing

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<v Speaker 3>total factor productivity and our inability to measure that, or

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<v Speaker 3>other things that we are talking about before in reference

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<v Speaker 3>to the tailor rule. The other you know, kind of

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<v Speaker 3>big uncertainty is you know, the real neutral rate, we

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<v Speaker 3>don't know what that real neutral rate is, or something

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<v Speaker 3>even more, you know, kind of basic, which is we

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<v Speaker 3>measure economic data that we think we know with certainty,

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<v Speaker 3>like growth and inflation or our payrolls or employment, we

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<v Speaker 3>measure it with error. So when there were revisions, there's

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<v Speaker 3>a lot, So it's really about dealing with that uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 2>Jeffrey Rosenberg there with blackrit just can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 2>his value add to all of Bloomberg's surveillance, including on

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<v Speaker 2>Job's Day, and of course the FED decides as well,

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<v Speaker 2>which brings it over to the leadership of Blackrock. Gary

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<v Speaker 2>Gensler went out and said, okay, into the bitcoin pool.

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<v Speaker 2>Everybody dived in, and many would say, no one more

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<v Speaker 2>than Blackrock. We are advantaged by the expertise of Eric

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<v Speaker 2>Belchunis with that question. If you're in a panel, you're

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<v Speaker 2>at a conference, when he speaks, the world stops and

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<v Speaker 2>everybody listens. Eric Belchunis on Blackrock and Bitcoin, Well, it is.

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<v Speaker 4>Such a small sliver of Larry's whole world. That's what

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<v Speaker 4>I told the crypto people. They think this is such

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<v Speaker 4>a big deal. It's a nice hit, but it's point

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<v Speaker 4>one percent of their revenue. So Larry is doing everything right.

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<v Speaker 4>In my opinion. To compete in the Vanguard era, you

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<v Speaker 4>have to hustle your butt off and go everywhere and

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<v Speaker 4>try everything pretty much and try to get new revenue streams.

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<v Speaker 4>So I just think he's just opportunistic, and you have

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<v Speaker 4>to be to compete with Vanguard, and BlackRock's the only

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<v Speaker 4>firm that competes with Vanguard regularly and does it well.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the most intelligent thing I've heard on this. Eric

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<v Speaker 2>belchunis there on the dash to bring in gazillions of

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<v Speaker 2>dollars off of bitcoin and frankly other digital currencies as

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<v Speaker 2>as well. Excuse me, we're into earning season, Jamie Diamond

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa A. Bramowitz. So I guess be back New

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<v Speaker 2>York on Friday to go over earnings and JP Morgan

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<v Speaker 2>will bring you that coverage. Many worthy schedule there to

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<v Speaker 2>provide wisdom, and of course the inflation report on Thursday.

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<v Speaker 2>Really looking forward to that. We got PPI in CPI

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<v Speaker 2>and the jumble of it well, I think have some value.

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<v Speaker 2>But boy, if things shifted from a fifty basis point

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<v Speaker 2>to a twenty five basis point. Guests forward and Torsten

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<v Speaker 2>Slock today with Apollo Global Management, saying, look, there's just

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<v Speaker 2>too much buoyancy out there. You may see no more

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<v Speaker 2>rate cuts to the economy in twenty twenty four. We're

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<v Speaker 2>on on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast growing every day.

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<v Speaker 2>becomes ever closer. On YouTube podcasts, on Apple podcasts, this

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<v Speaker 2>is a single best idea