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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Claudia sam is

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Speaker 1: a jewel. She's out on Twitter creating a firestorm each

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Speaker 1: and every day. A Bloomberg opinion columnist, she is fearless

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Speaker 1: about what's in the textbooks and what we're doing right

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Speaker 1: now that is not in the textbooks. Claudia, the question

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Speaker 1: the Twitter verse wants to know, are we practicing monetary

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Speaker 1: a modern monetary theory. That's not the way that I

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Speaker 1: would describe it. I think, honestly, as you put it,

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Speaker 1: the textbooks haven't been written. I mean, we really are

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Speaker 1: are trying to figure this out. We are living both

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Speaker 1: a sea change in monetary policy. We have a new

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Speaker 1: federal reserve framework that is frankly being tested as we speak,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen fiscal policy in fits and starts really

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Speaker 1: shift in terms of putting support into the economy. You

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Speaker 1: put those two things together, this is not a constellation

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Speaker 1: that we've seen before, and the ink is not dry

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Speaker 1: on it either, So this is a very fluid moment.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot to be proud of with this. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we have a recovery that is just so much better

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Speaker 1: and faster than last time. Help me were the word

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Speaker 1: measured and maybe a Bank of England that was many measured.

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Speaker 1: Arthur Burns used to make big moves. When he made

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Speaker 1: a move, he's smoking the pipe and the pipe smoke

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Speaker 1: coming up and everybody interpreting what the spipe smoke Man

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Speaker 1: Greenspan invented measured? Are we measured now in our movements

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Speaker 1: or potential movements? I think the big change for the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve right now is that their communication policy has

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Speaker 1: become so much stronger. Given the interest rates are a

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Speaker 1: lot lower than they were in either of those two

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Speaker 1: past uh FED FED times, so they have I don't

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Speaker 1: think the word measured is what they're thinking of. Is

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Speaker 1: that no surprise, right? We have watched them do so

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Speaker 1: much messaging and that you don't want to do big

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Speaker 1: moves unless you have to. We know from March the

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Speaker 1: Fed is more than willing to just move when it

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Speaker 1: needs to. But at a moment like this, they want

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Speaker 1: to bring everybody along. J p How spends a lot

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Speaker 1: of time trying to explain to us what they're thinking

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Speaker 1: and where their head is. Claudia, how much are you

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Speaker 1: taking a signal from the pact that J. Powell is

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Speaker 1: reiterating some of the economists who are decrying the inflationary

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Speaker 1: push that we're seeing is something that you have to address,

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Speaker 1: versus the bond market, which is saying it's not a problem. Well,

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Speaker 1: this also goes very much to the communication we need

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Speaker 1: and we need to believe that we have a FED

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Speaker 1: that is awake at the wheel, and they absolutely are.

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Speaker 1: But it is important that they address some of those

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Speaker 1: individuals and say, hey, like we are watching this, we

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Speaker 1: see it, and we are deeply concerned. I worked at

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Speaker 1: the FED for over a decade. They are always deeply

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Speaker 1: concerned about inflation. That's what the central Bank is there

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Speaker 1: in part to do. I think they've just been so

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Speaker 1: much more explicit and trying to help the outside world

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Speaker 1: understand the risk and the risk have been shifting, right.

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Speaker 1: It is absolutely appropriate how their communication and what they're

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Speaker 1: telling us has moved over time. The world is moving,

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Speaker 1: but Claudia how much is this a shift in perception

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Speaker 1: and a shift in ideas at the Federal Reserve? How

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Speaker 1: much is this something more political? There have been some

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Speaker 1: massive pivots done by FED Chair J. Powell, the fact

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Speaker 1: that he thought that it was appropriate to keep the

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Speaker 1: bond purchases where they were, that the tapering where was

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Speaker 1: where it was, and suddenly we're doubling it and talking

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Speaker 1: about how everything looks very hot the labor market. We

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Speaker 1: want to get to full participation. We want to see

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Speaker 1: the labor market participation rate go up. Now we don't

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Speaker 1: even know what that means. It's not going to be

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Speaker 1: the same economy. This is a vastly different FED Chair J.

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Speaker 1: Powell to what we heard. Do you read something different

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Speaker 1: into this? Right? So? I think this question is interesting

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Speaker 1: about the politics. I actually wrote my sub stack post

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Speaker 1: right before the meeting on this question because I was

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Speaker 1: I found it interesting that this has some creeds in

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Speaker 1: in some circles. The FED is is a politically independent

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Speaker 1: in its policy decisions. It's in Washington, d C. Politics

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Speaker 1: are there, and it it has gotten pulled into some

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Speaker 1: of these very complicated issues about especially in labor markets,

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Speaker 1: like how inclusive and the diversity, and it's tough. But

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Speaker 1: the thing is, and I really do believe that the

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Speaker 1: decisions they are making are being driven by what's happening

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Speaker 1: in the economy, and unfortunately, the FED is setting up

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Speaker 1: for this tough trade off between inflation is staying high,

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Speaker 1: we need to get that back down and we want

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Speaker 1: to get every worker back to work, so they are

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Speaker 1: going to face this trade off. Frankly, they haven't done

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Speaker 1: a great job of explain and how that works in

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Speaker 1: the new framework. But I don't they're pushed around by politics.

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Speaker 1: Politics plays them as I'm sure we'll see what the

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Speaker 1: next set of the appointments, but I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: what's driving what Jay is doing in the FED. Talk

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Speaker 1: to us clowly and quickly about where the importance of

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Speaker 1: an inclusive labor market dominates for the next month or so.

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Speaker 1: Because for now we seem to not worry the black

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Speaker 1: unemployment is still at seven percent, whereas general unemployment is

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Speaker 1: at about four We put more of a focus on

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Speaker 1: price stability, helping particularly the lower income parts of the

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Speaker 1: industry and indeed of the labor market. Right, I think

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Speaker 1: it's right to be focused on next year, but it's

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Speaker 1: important we step back, look at what the inflation numbers

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Speaker 1: are not right now, and the FED funds rate is

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Speaker 1: still at zero. Like, this is a FED that is

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Speaker 1: incredibly focused on both sides of their dual mandate in

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Speaker 1: a way that we would not have seen even a

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Speaker 1: few years ago. So what does that mean in terms

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Speaker 1: of being inclusive and the broad based. I think this

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Speaker 1: is a big discussion, and it came up on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: is of the people who left the labor force, who

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Speaker 1: is coming back and how quickly can they come back? Right?

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Speaker 1: And I that's going to I think be the big

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Speaker 1: debate going into next year. Claudia, I'm depressed when it

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Speaker 1: came out thirty two years ago. I read every word

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Speaker 1: of Heile Broner and Bernstein The Debt and the Deficit.

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Speaker 1: I must have sold Peter Bernstein thirty copies of that book,

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Speaker 1: where I just said to people, shut up and read

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Speaker 1: this so we don't panic. Douglas cast a wonderful trade

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Speaker 1: of this morning, and investor asked you about modern fiscal

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Speaker 1: theory from your monetary view, back to the classic book

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Speaker 1: by Hile Bronner and Bernstein. What is our modern fiscal theory? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: well so I wish I had that answer for you.

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Speaker 1: I think right now it's it's the we're I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk so much about the FED, but when

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Speaker 1: we look out years to come, what's happening in Congress

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Speaker 1: right now is where the debate should be. And I

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Speaker 1: worry that when we get like there's the models and

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Speaker 1: exactly how much dead and what can we spend, it

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Speaker 1: gets past the we move past the well what are

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Speaker 1: we trying to accomplish? What types of investments are we

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Speaker 1: trying to make in our infrastructure and our people in

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Speaker 1: our planet, and that in the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: those discussions are going to loose so much larger, and

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Speaker 1: I worried that that theory is going to be written

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Speaker 1: after the fact. Claudius brilliant, Thank you so much with

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Speaker 1: the Jane Family Institute on the equity markets and on

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Speaker 1: joins us now from Wells Fargo, always wonderful, particularly on

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Speaker 1: the dynamics that she observes within the markets. You've got

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Speaker 1: a single sense and I'm not going to mince words

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Speaker 1: about it. You say high quality is where to be.

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Speaker 1: We're hearing that from Wells Fargo. We're hearing that from

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Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs others disagree. What is the risk of acquiring

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Speaker 1: low quality shares? Well? As we get more lane into

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Speaker 1: the cycle that textbook fundamentals. As you see credit liquidity decrease,

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Speaker 1: you see monetary accommodation decrease. This was pressure on the

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Speaker 1: funding markets. And we've seen time and again that equity

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Speaker 1: volatility is tied to credit and rate volatility. So as

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Speaker 1: you see credit spreads winding, we expect more equity volatility.

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Speaker 1: And those are the kind of situations where we're not

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Speaker 1: particularly fully risked off here, but we need a little

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Speaker 1: more protection and we like it in the form of

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Speaker 1: high quality. So we would reduce our exposure to the

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Speaker 1: very high leveled companies look for a little wider profit margins,

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Speaker 1: a little harder higher r o s in that kind

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Speaker 1: of scenario. So Anna, does that just mean to go

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Speaker 1: into big tech? Actually, I would shy a little away

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Speaker 1: from certain parts of the tech market there, but we

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Speaker 1: are still a proponent of Here is cyclicality, and right now,

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Speaker 1: as you get with yields rising, you get monetary comedies

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Speaker 1: coming off. We've seen what happens to the very high

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Speaker 1: flyer growth at any price kind of sectors. They're in

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Speaker 1: a little bit in trouble, and we think that kind

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Speaker 1: of volatility or that could back isn't over yet. So

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Speaker 1: rather than just pour into tech as a whole, I

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Speaker 1: think you look market across, look broadly, and look for

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Speaker 1: somewhere where we can get high quality but at the

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Speaker 1: right price. This is important, especially because a lot of

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Speaker 1: people cheered after the Fed's hawkish tills and the market's response,

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Speaker 1: which was it's all good copasetic keep on partying. And

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Speaker 1: then yesterday we saw the NASAC in particular and big

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Speaker 1: tech stocks tumble. Is that more of what's to come?

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Speaker 1: Is that a signal of what we can expect in

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Speaker 1: terms of an even potential correction in big tech? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think none of us really want to leave the

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Speaker 1: party too soon. We don't want to miss out. But

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Speaker 1: at the same time, we are realizing that some parts

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Speaker 1: of tech how run very hot. And in that scenario,

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Speaker 1: as you start thinking about what's going to happen next

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Speaker 1: year as potential for us, we're projecting multiple multiple compression.

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Speaker 1: You want to look at what really has run hot

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Speaker 1: and maybe take them off the table here. So you

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Speaker 1: may be seeing a little bout those dynamics. And again,

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Speaker 1: even though we're coming from a place of very liquid

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Speaker 1: markets and a lot of accommodation. The directional change and

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Speaker 1: the pull forward in the taper schedule and the potential

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Speaker 1: rate HeiG schedule. This is a velocity change here we're seeing,

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Speaker 1: and that's really what the market is digesting. And I

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Speaker 1: don't want to put strategists versus strategists, but I'm reading

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Speaker 1: the note of course, and Bank of America's chief invessel strategist,

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Speaker 1: Michael Horton, that's saying he still is remaining bearish until

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Speaker 1: we get full blown capitulation in the market. Here's risk

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Speaker 1: of us. And I'm interested in your perspective as to

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Speaker 1: what makes you feel that market should still go into

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Speaker 1: equities at this point. Where is market sentiment, where is

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Speaker 1: positioning out From your perspective, Well, it's interesting we have

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Speaker 1: actually seen capitulation in some parts of the equity market.

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Speaker 1: Earlier this year. You saw that investors reduced China exposure.

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Speaker 1: That was two women sh of a painful thing for

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Speaker 1: portfolio managers throughout the year, and that was reduced. You

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Speaker 1: also saw that there was a lot of crowding of

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Speaker 1: some of the tech favorites, and some of that is

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Speaker 1: being washed out here one of the reasons why we've

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Speaker 1: seen so much pressure on the tech parts of the market.

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Speaker 1: But going forward, we don't think it's time to give

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Speaker 1: up on equities as a whole, because we still think

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Speaker 1: that there is a game to be played in cyclical

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Speaker 1: parts of the market. But that's why we're actually barbelling

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Speaker 1: that with quality here. We're not saying risk on, but

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Speaker 1: we're not heading for the hills either. How do you

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Speaker 1: find I'm sorry, Caroline, excuse me, I'm sorry, Caroline, go ahead.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, thank you, Tom, such a gentleman. I'm interested in.

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Speaker 1: I know your perspective on does the US remain the

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Speaker 1: only game in town? Do you still see US equities

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Speaker 1: outfull in the likes of Europe? The Europe has a

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Speaker 1: little bit more value to it. Well, in the near term,

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Speaker 1: we like the US because we have a little more

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Speaker 1: clarity on it. But will be very important next year

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Speaker 1: is where different nations are in their tightening cycle, because

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Speaker 1: as you start to see sort of divergence or different

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Speaker 1: timing on when people are hiking versus when that accommodation

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Speaker 1: is coming off, that's going to also have a big

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Speaker 1: impact not just on equities, but really the Underlyer here,

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Speaker 1: which is the currency markets. So these are the kind

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Speaker 1: of things we need to consider going into next year.

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Speaker 1: And there may be more opportunities that open up later

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Speaker 1: in the back half of depending where we are in

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Speaker 1: our tightening cycle. Anna, thank you so much, Anahan with

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Speaker 1: a start today with Wells Fargo. Greatly appreciate that. Right

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Speaker 1: now if you get a three hour discussion with Andrew

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Speaker 1: Peckha she's professor in viiologists at Johns Hopkins with professor Breyer,

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Speaker 1: and we got eight ways to go here Andrew, But

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Speaker 1: I want to go to the cold heart reality that

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Speaker 1: the President of the United States knows and that the

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Speaker 1: United States has a vaccination rate published out at and

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Speaker 1: a nation is beleaguered as Italy has a vaccination rate

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Speaker 1: out at. How far behind is the look that we

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Speaker 1: seem to be very far behind? Well, you know, we

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Speaker 1: we were one of the first countries to roll out

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Speaker 1: vaccines UH in mass and it seems like ever since

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Speaker 1: we started to row out the vaccines, we've fallen behind

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Speaker 1: other countries that are able to not only more effectively

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Speaker 1: do it, but also convinced their population about the benefits

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Speaker 1: of vaccination um in many different ways. And I think

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Speaker 1: that as we moved through these variants, we saw this

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Speaker 1: with Alpha, we're now we saw with Delta, and now

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Speaker 1: we're seeing all of the signs with all macron of

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Speaker 1: the same thing, which is, these viruses are moving through

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Speaker 1: the population. Vaccines are protecting us from severe disease, but

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Speaker 1: it's the unvaccinated population that's really going to be the

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Speaker 1: population that's going to put us stress onto our healthcare

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Speaker 1: system because these viruses are spreading incredibly efficiently and they're

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Speaker 1: gonna find unvaccinated people in the disease and unvac stated people.

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Speaker 1: Is yet to be really determined how virulent this virus is.

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Speaker 1: Dr package the uptick in cases that we're seeing in

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Speaker 1: New York City in particular, or is that the O

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Speaker 1: Macron wave actually happening here? Really difficult to differentiate between

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Speaker 1: what's happening with the Delta surge, which certainly was going

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Speaker 1: on across many parts of the US just after Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: and what A macron is doing. Are sequencing efforts here

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Speaker 1: in the US lag behind a little bit the efforts

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Speaker 1: that are going on in the UK and South Africa,

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Speaker 1: So we're not hearing about the O Macron cases as

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Speaker 1: quickly as we should. It's quite possible that um the

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Speaker 1: surges that we're seeing now are contributed to buy all Macron,

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Speaker 1: because the data coming out of Europe is showing this

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Speaker 1: virus is at least as good as Delta, if not

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Speaker 1: better than Delta at transmissent transmitting in populations that have

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Speaker 1: some immunity. Even how important DR package is a psychological

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Speaker 1: impact of a lot of people who got vaccinated. They

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Speaker 1: did exactly what they thought that they should do, and

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Speaker 1: they're still getting sick. Everybody know somebody like that. As

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Speaker 1: this O Macron variant starts to spread, how much does

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Speaker 1: that discourage people from both getting vaccinated and from listening

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Speaker 1: to health officials by saying you'll be protected if you

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Speaker 1: just take these measures. Yeah, it's important to get the

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Speaker 1: message of primarily protection from severe disease is what we're

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Speaker 1: seeing these vaccines doing quite well, and that is actually

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Speaker 1: held true even with Alpha, even with Delta, and now

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Speaker 1: with O Macron as well too. So I think the

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Speaker 1: realistic expectation for people is that COVID ncteen is looking

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Speaker 1: more and more like seasonal influenza. The vaccines are going

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Speaker 1: to prevent some level of infection, but not all, but

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Speaker 1: they're going to make a really big dent in terms

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Speaker 1: of the severe disease and that is probably where six

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Speaker 1: months a year from now we're going to really be

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Speaker 1: settling in in terms of managing this disease. Vaccines will

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Speaker 1: limit cases and disease severity, will have treatments like anti

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Speaker 1: virals that also will limit to base disease severity, and

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Speaker 1: we'll be dealing with this as a virus similar to influenza.

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Speaker 1: We're not at that place yet, but that's where we

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Speaker 1: will be in a few months. And there is an

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Speaker 1: element though, in the here and the now that we've

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Speaker 1: heard from Chris Witty, the Chief Medical Officer of England,

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Speaker 1: about the worry that eventually hospitalizations might well run much

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Speaker 1: higher than they have done previously because we're about to

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Speaker 1: come together as families, because once again we're exhausted from

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Speaker 1: the mental strain of all of this. We want to

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Speaker 1: be together. We're going to put the most vulnerable at risk. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: the US very much standing might stance and they want

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Speaker 1: to see families together for the festive period. What do

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Speaker 1: you make of that risk at the moment, Well, there

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Speaker 1: is a way to manage this risk. It does take engagement,

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Speaker 1: and it does take effort. Testing is an important part

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Speaker 1: of this. The rapid testing and some and other forms

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Speaker 1: of testing like saliva testing are really good methods to

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Speaker 1: make to keep monitoring for infections. UM making sure that

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Speaker 1: that you understand your gatherings and your workplaces and maintain

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Speaker 1: some level of social distancing there is also important. There

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Speaker 1: are ways to manage the risks of transmission right now.

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Speaker 1: But what's important to note is more cases will equal

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Speaker 1: more hospitalizations, and so we have to really make an

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Speaker 1: effort to limit cases because irrespective of whether O macron

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Speaker 1: is more or less virulent than delta, if it causes

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Speaker 1: more cases than delta, it will cause more severe cases

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Speaker 1: than delta. Talk to me quickly about why I can

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Speaker 1: walk into a library, into a pharmacy anywhere in the

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Speaker 1: UK and get a lateral flow test and in fact

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Speaker 1: have many ahead of the Christmas period to be able

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Speaker 1: to ensure that we're remaining safe. But is it right

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Speaker 1: that it feels much harder to do that in the

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Speaker 1: United States? And what reason is that it is most

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Speaker 1: definitely harder to do that in the United States. I

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Speaker 1: think there wasn't an emphasis early on about using these

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Speaker 1: at home tests, and it wasn't a real understanding of

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Speaker 1: how to use these at home tests effectively. UM other

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Speaker 1: countries have moved forward with that and are able to

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Speaker 1: use these tests effectively. I think we're starting to learn

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Speaker 1: that here in the US. But now it's becomes basically

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Speaker 1: a supply and demand a problem. Now people are trying

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Speaker 1: to get these these tests here, but we simply don't

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Speaker 1: have the supply to meet the demand that's here right now.

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Speaker 1: I assume that will change with some of the pandemic

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Speaker 1: plans at President Biden's administrators is putting forward, but for

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Speaker 1: the short term, people are really desperate for these tests

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Speaker 1: and not being able to get them in many parts

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Speaker 1: of the United States. Dr Pickoff, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: If I don't speak to you before the end of

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Speaker 1: the year. Thank you for your support and your education

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Speaker 1: of all of us on radio and television worldwide. Here

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Speaker 1: is with JOHNS. Hopkins at University hallne Becker once again

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Speaker 1: our senior research channelists at Cowen working with Chivan Rumor,

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Speaker 1: the airline franchise. AC Cowen has been globally respected for decades.

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Speaker 1: We're thrilled that Ms Becker could join us this morning.

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Speaker 1: Helena I want to get away from the store aries

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Speaker 1: and the Yanks to the moment and do sell side

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Speaker 1: one oh one. Your single best buy right now is

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Speaker 1: United Airlines. They are down nineteen percent a years since

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Speaker 1: Valentine's Day of two thousand and twenty. Why when the

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Speaker 1: airlines get off the mat, is United going to be

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Speaker 1: the winner? Yeah, that's a good question. Thanks, and thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me, tom So. Our view on United is

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Speaker 1: that they're leveraged to international and their leverage to corporate.

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Speaker 1: About half their revenue comes from international roots and the

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Speaker 1: other half from domestic um. And what we're seeing two

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Speaker 1: things and and actually Delta seeing this too, and and

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Speaker 1: we could easily have gone with Delta although they're less

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Speaker 1: less exposed to international um. The key element is that

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00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 1: UH consumers are buying up into premium economy or into

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Speaker 1: premium seats because the price points between the two have narrowed,

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Speaker 1: and people find that they like having that little extra

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Speaker 1: room or a little extra comfort in the front of

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00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: the cabin. They get extra miles um with the more

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00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 1: expensive tickets, and they which I think is important to

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00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: people right because they work towards free tickets and upgrades

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Speaker 1: faster UM. But with United. They're adding a lot of

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Speaker 1: service this summer, especially into leisure international destinations, places that

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00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,679
Speaker 1: have never really had UM international NonStop service from from

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Speaker 1: the US, like Palma, New yorka Bergen in Norway. Let

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Speaker 1: me ask you a points guy question, because the points guy,

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Speaker 1: Brian Kelly worships at the altar of Elaine Becker. Are

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Speaker 1: miles gonna matter? Are miles gonna matter after the pandemic? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I think so, I think, And I think that's why

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Speaker 1: you seek hard usage increasing and card acquisition increasing. One

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Speaker 1: of the things that United said on their last confidence

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Speaker 1: called on Delta said yesterday on Investor Day, was that

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Speaker 1: they're seeing increases in the number of cards that are

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Speaker 1: being issued. And I think it's a combination of millennials,

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Speaker 1: UM who weren't supposed to own anything and now own

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Speaker 1: stuff and and have kind of bought all the things

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00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,359
Speaker 1: that they need to buy. So we're probably going to

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Speaker 1: see an increase in service spend UM once the pandemic

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Speaker 1: becomes endemic, which we also think is going to happen,

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Speaker 1: you know, sometime in the first or second quarter of

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Speaker 1: next year, UM or at least people will realize it,

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Speaker 1: and then I think we're gonna see more people travel.

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Speaker 1: And of course, if you spend on the card um

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Speaker 1: to buy your things, right, if you're buying clothing to

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Speaker 1: go back to the office, or you're buying washing machines

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Speaker 1: or dryers to you know, replace broken ones, or just

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00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,720
Speaker 1: or to get out your house, um, then I think

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Speaker 1: you you are going to want those miles so that

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Speaker 1: you can earn free trips quicker. In the meantime, Helene,

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Speaker 1: we still are dealing with O Macron, which a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are saying has not fully been priced in.

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Speaker 1: What's your view when you take a look at United

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Speaker 1: and Delta h and an American air that have lost

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Speaker 1: more than twenty percent of their value since the beginning

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00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 1: or the middle of November. Yeah, so it's priced in.

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Speaker 1: I think I think investors you think it's not priced

401
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 1: in are probably being shortsighted. It is absolutely being priced in.

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Speaker 1: In our view, the stocks have underperformed, to your point,

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00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 1: quite a lot just in the last four weeks in

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Speaker 1: an environment where we're seeing really good strength. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we saw a record Thanksgiving traffic, Domestic leisure is above

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Speaker 1: pre pandemic levels, pricing is above fourth quarter nineteen levels.

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Speaker 1: We are going to see very strong revenue um this quarter,

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00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 1: and it's going to be partially offset by installationary pressure

409
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 1: in wages and fuel for sure, but fuel costs aren't

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Speaker 1: even as high as we thought they were going to be,

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Speaker 1: so they've come down a little bit, and I think

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Speaker 1: going into the first quarter, what we've said is we

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Speaker 1: think that after the first week of January, we'll see

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Speaker 1: about three to four weeks of a slow down, and

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Speaker 1: then we think mid February, right, so around President's Day week, um,

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Speaker 1: we'll see a pickup and then we think that's going

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Speaker 1: to continue through the summer. It's interesting that here in

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Speaker 1: the UK and Europe some of the airlines have been

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Speaker 1: colmoring from all government support, ringing their hands at the

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Speaker 1: latest need for PC artests to travel internationally, saying that's

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Speaker 1: going to reac havoc on their Christmas bookings and winter bookings.

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Speaker 1: What real time time data are you looking at? Is

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Speaker 1: it always about the t s A data or can

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Speaker 1: you get a feel for the flow of bookings and

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00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: how how real they are or how many cantulations were

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00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 1: starting to see? Yeah, so that's that's a good question.

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Speaker 1: We rely on t SA data number first and foremost,

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Speaker 1: because I guess that's the best um read on what's

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Speaker 1: happening exactly today, and not only t s A. By

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Speaker 1: the way, we get the data from europe Control as well.

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Speaker 1: And then in terms of the forward bookings, we rely

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Speaker 1: on arc A r c our Corporate gives us the

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Speaker 1: numbers every week, so we rely on that as well.

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Speaker 1: We don't you know, we don't have a credit card

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00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: company that we're with whom we are associated, so we

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00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 1: rely on that. And then not enough time. But I've

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Speaker 1: got to ask you this news driven question. Airbus is

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Speaker 1: cleaning Owen's clock. What are they talking about in Chicago

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Speaker 1: and Seattle today to right the Boeing ship? Well, you

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00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: know that's Kai's per view. I'm asking you. I don't

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Speaker 1: so so I think the key Eleman is getting the

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Speaker 1: seven eight seven's delivered again. That's number one. And I

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Speaker 1: think the other big issue is getting the Maxes out

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Speaker 1: there and getting him in the air again. Um, which

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Speaker 1: is happening. I've I've flown that Max a few times

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Speaker 1: now and and just love it. It's a great It's

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Speaker 1: a great plane in my opinion. Elaine Becker Kivan Rumor

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00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: There at Cow and what a duo on aviation that

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Speaker 1: we all care about only thank you. This is the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays

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00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and

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00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am

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00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 1: for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and

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00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 1: international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast,

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00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 1: sound call out, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg m