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Speaker 1: The Bloomberg invest Conference kicked off today, with some of

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Speaker 1: the most influential leaders in finance gathering in New York

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Speaker 1: for conversations on a wide range of topics, including artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies,

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Speaker 1: and global trends in wealth management. At the conference, Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: Eric Shatzker spoke with Don Fitzpatrick, the CEO and chief

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Speaker 1: investment officer at Sorrow's Fund Management, starting on her thoughts

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Speaker 1: on recent banking turmoil.

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Speaker 2: I think you're going to see more bank failures, likely

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Speaker 2: in the small banks, so it's not going to be

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Speaker 2: the big headlines and the size of the failures we

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Speaker 2: had so far, but I think there's more problems under

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Speaker 2: the surface, so you'll.

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Speaker 3: See continued sales. And the other thing that is undeniable

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Speaker 3: is in aggregate.

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Speaker 2: Banks have to reduce balance sheets and shortened duration of portfolios.

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Speaker 2: Here there is you know, regulation coming that's going to

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Speaker 2: be pretty punitive.

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Speaker 4: Talk a bit more about that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think you know, the Federal Reserve has

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Speaker 2: has said they're doing a comprehensive review of bank regulation.

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Speaker 3: I think what.

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Speaker 2: That's going to look like is enhanced stress tests AOI

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Speaker 2: C exemptions. I think are going to disappear. That's where

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Speaker 2: people didn't have to mark things to market. I think

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Speaker 2: when it comes to liquidity management, there's going to be

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Speaker 2: a lot more scrutiny on that. One of the interesting

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Speaker 2: things is coming out of the financial crisis, there was

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Speaker 2: a lot of focus on asequality, so things like stress tests,

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Speaker 2: and not as much on liability management. But now we know,

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Speaker 2: like you know, deposit assumptions were just long and and

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Speaker 2: by the way, I won't mention the name, but bank

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Speaker 2: yesterday said they lost one of their biggest, biggest depositors

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Speaker 2: because another bank was paying FED funds plus seventy basis

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Speaker 2: points for deposits. Like that's not a healthy backdrop. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, part of the reason they can do

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Speaker 2: that is because you have a quasi government guarantee right

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Speaker 2: now on bank deposits.

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Speaker 4: So in addition to agency mortgage bonds, what other kinds

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Speaker 4: of trades and or investments seem attractive to you with

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Speaker 4: that as the backdrop.

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Speaker 2: So we're finally with that as a backdrop, you are

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Speaker 2: seeing a credit contraction. I think you know, the recent

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Speaker 2: loan data you know doesn't actually surprise a little bit

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Speaker 2: better to the upside, But this contraction is invariably coming

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Speaker 2: banks will just be able to loan less. In the

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Speaker 2: levered loan space. Seventy percent of levered loans have been

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Speaker 2: bought recently by clos. Colo issuance right now is at

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty levels. And also typically clos have a reset

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Speaker 2: where they can extend duration. But this is another like

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Speaker 2: unintended consequences of higher rates.

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Speaker 3: Now with higher.

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Speaker 2: Rates, those resets don't make economic sense. So you have

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Speaker 2: forty percent of existing clos ending their reinvestment periods by the.

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Speaker 3: End of this year.

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Speaker 2: So you're just going to have loan less credit available.

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Speaker 2: And there's a lot of people who think private credit

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Speaker 2: has grown exponentially they'll just fill in the gap. I

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Speaker 2: think that's not going to prove to be quite accurate.

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Speaker 2: They can do more than they could have done ten

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Speaker 2: years ago, but it's too big a gap to fill in.

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Speaker 2: So in private credit, we're finally seeing things begin to reprice.

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Speaker 2: And I think you were going to see a default

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Speaker 2: cycle that is about to kind of emerge, and I

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Speaker 2: think the magnitude and probably more interesting, the duration of

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Speaker 2: that default cycle is going to surprise people.

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Speaker 4: How do we see that play out? Then there's clearly

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Speaker 4: a bond market. There's a leverage loan market, but there

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Speaker 4: isn't much of a secondary market for things like the

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Speaker 4: unitronch loans that have been you know that lately have

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Speaker 4: been dominating the growth of the private credit market.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So again, I think private credit firms are all

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Speaker 2: opportunistically trying to raise capital. I think when you look

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Speaker 2: at alternative asset management capital raises, they're generally challenged. Maybe

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Speaker 2: private credit is a little less challenged than other areas,

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Speaker 2: but they're all challenged. I think in the private credit world,

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Speaker 2: one of the things you're going to see is the

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Speaker 2: most vulnerable loans are going to be the ones that

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Speaker 2: private equity took out, so sponsor loans, and I think

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Speaker 2: you're going to see those private equity companies be really

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Speaker 2: aggressive around liquidity and maturity issues. So I think you're

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Speaker 2: going to see a lot of kind of extend and

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Speaker 2: pretend and that also reduces the amount of real dry

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Speaker 2: powder out.

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Speaker 3: There for you.

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Speaker 4: Is this just a matter of waiting for the things

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Speaker 4: that you find interesting to get cheap enough, or are

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Speaker 4: you are there opportunities to short along the way?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: So right now, our balance sheet is really clean, and

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Speaker 2: one of the things I've been stressing to the team

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Speaker 2: is it is a little bit about being patient, and

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Speaker 2: I think sometimes that's something that investors do poorly, both

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Speaker 2: institutional and retail, is just be patient and let the

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Speaker 2: opportunities set come to you. I again, I think where

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Speaker 2: we're headed in some ways the great financial crisis in

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Speaker 2: COVID we're not that pain full, right because they were

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Speaker 2: really deep corrections and really quick recoveries. I think this

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Speaker 2: is set up for something that's going to take a

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Speaker 2: really long time to play through. I think there's a

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Speaker 2: lot of private equity and borrowers and people who own

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Speaker 2: big buildings who are betting rates come down quickly, and

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Speaker 2: that I just don't I don't see that happening.

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Speaker 4: Do you not see it happening with enough conviction that

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Speaker 4: you're willing to take the other side of the rate trade?

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Speaker 3: We have, We have that bet on and rates for sure.

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Speaker 2: And I think one of the like one of the

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Speaker 2: things that's that's different about this time is you had

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Speaker 2: central banks and and fiscal authorities throw everything their entire

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Speaker 2: financial crisis playbook plus six trillion dollars at the pandemic recession.

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Speaker 2: In hindsight, it was too much and it cost us

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Speaker 2: just overly abundant credit and asset inflation, and the workout

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Speaker 2: on the other side is just gonna take a really

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Speaker 2: long time. And what we see is you still have

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Speaker 2: a lot of underlying distortions, so like within sectors you have.

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Speaker 3: Like boom bus cycles. So at the surface things look good,

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Speaker 3: but below the.

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Speaker 2: Surface like all hell is breaking out. But think about that.

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Speaker 2: That's going to make the Fed's job really, really difficult,

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Speaker 2: and you could have a really big default cycle without

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Speaker 2: GDP rolling over.

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Speaker 4: Much of this don as you just alluded as the

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Speaker 4: consequence of policy making, both at the fiscal and monetary level.

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Speaker 4: How much confidence do you have in market regulation right

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Speaker 4: now when you see what's going on in crypto, for example,

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Speaker 4: over the past couple of days, and folks, I think

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Speaker 4: you're going to hear a little more about that in

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Speaker 4: a few minutes. But also in antitrust yep you mentioned banking.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I will start start with with crypto, which

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Speaker 2: always gets me into trouble. But but I think you know,

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Speaker 2: especially the headlines of the last couple of days, it's

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Speaker 2: clear these crypto native platforms would have benefited from having

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Speaker 2: an adult in the room there.

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Speaker 4: Somebody might have something to say about that.

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Speaker 2: To state the obvious, but but like there are there

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Speaker 2: are just long held and simple norms about how you

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Speaker 2: treat customer assets for for example, and what I think,

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Speaker 2: I think Crypto is here to stay. I think what's

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Speaker 2: what's happened is clearly a setback, but right now I

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Speaker 2: actually think it's a huge opportunity for the incumbent financial

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Speaker 2: firms to actually take the lead, the.

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Speaker 4: Ones that are already regulated and run for example regulated exce.

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Speaker 2: Yeah and no, and know how to segregate client assets

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Speaker 2: and and yeah. So I think that is what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen on kind of that.

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Speaker 4: Not be ironic though, given the disruption that crypto promised.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there is some irony to it, and I'm sure,

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Speaker 2: yeah it is, it is ironic, But I think that's

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Speaker 2: I think that is going to be the evolution in

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Speaker 2: terms of hedge funds and private equity. You know, when

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Speaker 2: I look like at the Financial Stability Oversight Committee, which

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Speaker 2: sits on top of all of the US kind of

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Speaker 2: regulator regulatory board apparatus, which our US regulatory setup is

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Speaker 2: really too fractured to be wholly effective in my opinion.

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Speaker 2: But when you look at what they're focused on. It's

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Speaker 2: clear that they know post the financial crisis, because of

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Speaker 2: regular they shifted an exponential amount of risk into the

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Speaker 2: non regulated, non banking sector, and they're trying to figure

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Speaker 2: out ways to get out that because that is where

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Speaker 2: your next systemic risk is going to occur, and their

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Speaker 2: ability to spot it and course correct right now, I

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Speaker 2: think is pretty limited. So you see things coming out

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Speaker 2: like the Amendment to form PF.

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Speaker 4: Would they have to alert the SEC to so called

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Speaker 4: trigger events?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, in very short duration. I actually think for twenty

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Speaker 3: two hours, I think exactly.

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Speaker 2: And I think in a lot of ways that design

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Speaker 2: is better than in twenty eleven for BF just ask

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Speaker 2: for this huge data dump that candidly I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: the SEC knew what to do with. So this alert

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Speaker 2: system I think is really interesting and like elegant and

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Speaker 2: it's simplicity.

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Speaker 3: But I worry it will allow.

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Speaker 2: Them to see idiosyncratic risks and probably help those, But

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Speaker 2: when it comes to systemic events, I think they might

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Speaker 2: see it, but they're going to see.

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Speaker 3: It too late.

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Speaker 4: So a systemic event of what nature that the highly

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Speaker 4: levered multi strategy hedge fund, you know, all of a

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Speaker 4: sudden has serious problems.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So if you look at the top four public market

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Speaker 2: hedge funds right now, they're balance sheets the rose assets

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Speaker 2: are well in excess of a trillion dollars. And again

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Speaker 2: you have your regulated dealer community where the balance sheets

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Speaker 2: have done nothing but go down. Another stat that's really interesting,

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Speaker 2: your publicly traded alts assets under management have doubled since

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: So in other word, and I would argue.

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Speaker 2: Those big multi strategy platforms, they don't do things that

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Speaker 2: are all that different from one another. So when you

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Speaker 2: have an online of a trade finding that marginal buyer,

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Speaker 2: I think is just going to be that much more difficult.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the things at Soros Fund Management we

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Speaker 2: think about every day in that we think we want

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Speaker 2: to position ourselves to take advantage advantage of those dislocations.

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Speaker 2: But by the way, you saw it on the back

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Speaker 2: of Silicon Valley bank failure, when you had two year

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Speaker 2: treasury rates go from like you know, from above five

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Speaker 2: percent to below three sixty that's like a crazy enormous

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Speaker 2: move for.

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Speaker 3: A two year government bond.

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Speaker 4: There are any number of different kinds of dislocations. We've

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Speaker 4: talked about, some of them technical structural cyclical, there's technological too.

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Speaker 4: Do you think AI is going to create market disruptions

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Speaker 4: dislocations potentially?

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, when when we see what's going

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Speaker 2: on in a AI. First of all, when you look

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Speaker 2: at what what just came out of the recent earnings report,

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Speaker 2: it is clear that we're at the beginning of a

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Speaker 2: megacycle in spending an AI. And the real beneficiaries obviously

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Speaker 2: are the applications. So you're SaaS companies and you know infrastructure,

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Speaker 2: so it's it's cloud, and you're you know, high performing

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Speaker 2: chip companies. Those stocks right now are extrapolating pretty enormous

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Speaker 2: compounding growth.

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Speaker 3: We wouldn't necessarily chase that.

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Speaker 2: But but to your point, what's really striking about where

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Speaker 2: we are right now is AI allows us to talk

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Speaker 2: to computers like ourselves, and the ability to tap into

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Speaker 2: massive compute power and probably even more importantly, enterprise data

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Speaker 2: and just global data generally is going to be seismic

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Speaker 2: and it's and the capabilities are just going to be exponential.

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Speaker 4: Don last question for you, there's a long tradition of

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Speaker 4: prominent investors who speak out about economic policy, and much

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Speaker 4: of the commentary we get from them. I think is

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Speaker 4: genuinely altruistic right out of concern for the go to

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Speaker 4: the country or perhaps even the go to the world.

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Speaker 4: And George Soros is near or at the top of

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Speaker 4: that list. Also Stan Druckenmiller, who was here earlier, who

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Speaker 4: once held the role that you hold now, Ray Dalyo,

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Speaker 4: Ken Griffin. On occasion, we get it from Warren Buffett,

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Speaker 4: Bill Lackman, Paul Tudor Jones, whom you know. Well, they're

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Speaker 4: all men. I'd love to add a woman to that list, Lippy.

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Speaker 4: Don Fitzpatrick hopefully one day.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I you know, George is active, and I think

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Speaker 2: it's important that I'm defferential to him. I do serve

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Speaker 2: on government advisory committee, so I tied.

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Speaker 4: It working behind the scene.

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Speaker 3: I try to work behind the scenes. But yeah, one day.

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Speaker 1: Don Fitzpatrick, the CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Sorrow's

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Speaker 1: Fund Management, speaking at the Bloomberg invest Conference with our

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Speaker 1: own Eric Shatsker. For more interviews like this, subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Talks podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere

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