1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gerdusky. It 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: is a Monday, October sixth, twenty twenty five. There are 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: twenty nine days left till the twenty twenty five elections. 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: There are local elections happening all over the country, including Virginia, 5 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania. Make a plan to 6 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: go vote, vote by mail, vote early, vote on election day, 7 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: whatever you need to do, just remember to go vote 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: in these local elections. Local elections matter much more than 9 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: the national elections to your everyday life, even though they 10 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 1: are not nearly as sexy and they don't have many 11 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: people show up to vote. Now, I know, I told 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: you many frequent listeners this podcast. I was going to 13 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 1: do an episode on Virginia last Monday, and then I 14 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: pushed it back a week to focus on New Jersey 15 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: because they had all that breaking news. And it's a 16 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: good thing, because so much information regarding the Virginia election 17 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: happened over the last week that I would have missed 18 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: out on it had I otherwise done it, you know, 19 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: on time, So it's great that we didn't rush. Okay, 20 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: first things first, let's talk about polling. Now. Remember polls 21 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: are not predictors of the future. They are snapshots of 22 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: the present. I remind everybody that because people believe that 23 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: a poll says something, therefore it's going to happen or 24 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: likely to happen. It is just how people feel in 25 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: the present. They can change at anytime. So a poll 26 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: was conducted by Scholars School, and we're released by the 27 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: Washington Post. Now I know what you may be thinking. 28 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: It's the Washington Post. There are a bunch of liberals, 29 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 1: but they actually have a pretty decent track record in 30 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,959 Speaker 1: the state of Virginia, which is not an easy state 31 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 1: to poll. In twenty twenty one, their poll had Democrat 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: Terry mccaulliff winning by one point. He ended up losing 33 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: by two, So that's within the margin of error. It 34 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: means it's fairly accurate. And in twenty twenty four they 35 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: had Kamala Harris winning Virginia by eight. She won by 36 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: five point eight, so once again within the margin of era, 37 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: though slightly over sampling Democrats, but not to an outrageous degree, 38 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: not overly where it's like knowing by twenty and she 39 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: wins by five, it's fine, It's perfectly within the margin 40 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: of error. They had a poll on upcoming statewide elections 41 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: in Virginia and found that Democrats had a comfortable lead 42 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: in all three major races. First, there's the election for governor. 43 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: They had Democrat Abigail Spamberger up by twelve points. This 44 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 1: is in line with some other polls like the Christopher 45 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: Newport University poll, a terrible poll by the way, like 46 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: completely inaccurate, and an Emerson poll. Some other posters like 47 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: Trafalgar which nailed it in twenty twenty one. They have 48 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: a Spamburger only winning by five points, which is roughly 49 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: in line with some other poles. So you see, if 50 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: you have two collections of poll herding, you have the 51 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: polls that say that the Democrats for governors up by 52 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: five points, and then the ones that she says she's 53 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: going to win by double digits. The Washington Post Scholar 54 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: poll also looked at the other two statewide races, for 55 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: lieutenant governor, which in Virginia is elected separately from governor, 56 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: and the attorney general race. Now they founded the Democrat 57 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: for lieutenant governor, Gazala Hassami is up by four points, 58 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: which is not a great lead, especially given that the 59 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: governors up by a huge amount, and that j Jones, 60 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: a Democrat nominee for Attorney General, leads Republican incumbent Jason 61 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: Mirerez by six points among likely voters. Interesting enough, the 62 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: same poll finds that the majority of Virginians really agree 63 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 1: with President Trump on several big issues. When asked that 64 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: they supported policies to find and deport illegal immigrants, Virginians 65 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,600 Speaker 1: said yes by a forty nine to forty four percent margin, 66 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: including a majority or plurality of men, Republicans, moderates, whites, 67 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,839 Speaker 1: voters over the age of thirty, and voters of all 68 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 1: educational backgrounds aside from post graduate degree holders. When asked 69 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: at the state and local government to be doing more 70 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: to help apprehend illegal immigrants, fifty percent of Virginian said yes, 71 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: forty seven said no. And then, when asked if public 72 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 1: schools should allow trans girls to play in sports with 73 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: biological girls, nearly seventy percent said no. They said they 74 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: shouldn't be allowed to only twenty to only twenty percent 75 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: said yes. Now, Interestingly, the main issue Republican candidate for 76 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: governor wins some seers. The current Lieutenant governor has been 77 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: campaigning on since day one, and the centerpiece of her 78 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: entire campaign. Basically the focus of all her ass has 79 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 1: been transgender sports, something that Virginia's overwhelmingly agree with her on. 80 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: The thing is that it's not a high ranking issue, 81 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: not nearly as much as the economy, which she has 82 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: focused much, much less on than the transgender sports issue. 83 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 1: That conversation, however, started to change over the weekend, and 84 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 1: that is because of two controversies that landed at the 85 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: feet of Democratic Attorney General candidate j Jones. First, it 86 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: was revealed that Jones was convicted of reckless driving in 87 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, where he was driving at one hundred 88 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,919 Speaker 1: and sixteen miles per hour down a high way. It 89 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: was going well over fifty miles over the speed limit. 90 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: He ended up having to perform five hundred hours of 91 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: community service, and the community service he served under was 92 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 1: his own political action committee, not exactly cleaning streets on 93 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: the side of the highway or cleaning the service or 94 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: on the side of the highway. That seemed bad, but 95 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: it was nothing compared to the story that came out 96 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: by Audra Fahlberg at National View, which came out over 97 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: the weekend that Jones had texted a Republican colleague in 98 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,840 Speaker 1: the state legislator. He serves in the state legislator texted 99 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: a Republican colleague about how annoyed he was that fellow 100 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 1: Republicans were honoring a deceased legislator. This also happened in 101 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. I'm sure many of you've heard about 102 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: these messages, but if you haven't, I'm going to tell 103 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: you right now. It's dark. It's very, very dark, So 104 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 1: prepare yourself. Democrat Jay Jones said that if Republican colleague 105 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 1: is if his Republican colleague, former House Speaker Todd Gilbert, 106 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: Virginia House Speaker Toddler Gilbert died before him, he was 107 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: going to quote piss on his grave. He then said 108 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: of Hitler, Polpott and Todd Gilbert, the Speaker of the 109 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: Virginia House, were in a room, and he had two 110 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: bullets and a gun. He would shoot Todd Gilbert twice. 111 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to preface by saying that this is a 112 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: line from a very popular TV show called The Office. 113 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: Michael Scott says this at one point as much as 114 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: Democrats have used that, saying that that is a joke 115 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: and that he was just joking. His Republican colleague was 116 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: not taking it as a joke. She didn't reply with 117 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: a laughing emoji or an lol. He wrote that there 118 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 1: was Republican colleague said, please stop. This is not two 119 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: buddies paling around and having quote unquote locker room talk 120 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: or whatever. One person is clearly uncomfortable in this conversation. 121 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: They say, it makes me really uncomfortable when you talk 122 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: about hurting people or wishing death upump. So the idea 123 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: that some people have that this was like all just 124 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: you know, they were just joking at work. It wasn't 125 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: a joke. Only one person was very clearly not laughing 126 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: and telling them to stop. That part of the confert 127 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 1: was dark. And the Republican colleague who they're texting. The 128 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: republic colleague name is Carrie Kanyer. By the way, Carrie 129 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: apparently calls Jay Jones and they hop on a conversation 130 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: and it takes a turn over the phone. Now we 131 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: don't know the exact words that are being said, but 132 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: they resumed texting after the phone conversation. J Jones says 133 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: in the text, I wasn't attacking you. I was trying 134 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: to understand your logic. And the Republican colleague Carrie Kanye's replies, 135 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 1: you weren't trying to understand. You were talking about hoping 136 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: Jennifer Gilbert to Gilbert's wife that Jennifer Gilbert's children would die. Jones, 137 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: totally unrepented, replied, yes, I've told you this before. Only 138 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: when people feel pain personally do they move on policy. 139 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: Carrie the Republican clarified that Jones actually said over the 140 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: phone that he hoped that children were murdered in the 141 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: state Speaker's wife's arms while she watched, which led Carrie 142 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: Kanyer to hang up the phone on him. Joan said 143 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: one last text masters in exchange, I mean, do I 144 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: think Todd and Jennifer are evil and that they are 145 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: breeding a little fascist question Mark. Yes. The children he 146 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: are taught he's talking about wishing to see murder are 147 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: very clearly that I've seen in pictures under the age 148 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: of ten. One of them, I'm completely judging by the 149 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: way they look, looks about five years old. This is 150 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 1: really disturbing, It is really dark. It is really showing 151 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 1: his true feelings for a Republican who, by the way, 152 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: why he was annoyed with the Republican was because he 153 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: was saying something nice about a deceased Democrat colleague. That 154 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: is what triggered him to be so angry, is that 155 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: a Republican was saying something nice about his fellow colleague 156 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: in the state legislator who had passed away, who happened 157 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: to be a Democrat. This isn't a joke. This is 158 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 1: a deeply disturbed individual, right and you could see in 159 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: his long string of things that happened around the year twelve. 160 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: When the story broke out, Jones actually lashed out. He said, quote, 161 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: like all people, I've sent text messages that I regret, 162 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: and I believe that violent rhetoric has no place in 163 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: our politics. But let me be clear. What is happening 164 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: is that Attorney general race right now. Jason Miarrez is 165 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: dropping smears through Trump controlled media organizations to assault my 166 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: character and rescue his desperate campaign. This race is about 167 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,559 Speaker 1: whether Trump can control Virginia or Virginians can control Virginia. 168 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: By the way, the National Review is not Drump controlled. 169 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: If you're not a frequent reader of the National View, 170 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 1: it is very conservative. It's a conservative critical magazine of 171 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: the Trump administration. And they famously published a magazine cover 172 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen, called the case against Trump. A few 173 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: hours later, he and the reaction started pouring in and 174 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 1: they were all horrified at what Jade Jones had said. 175 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: He released a second statement. He said, I take full 176 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: responsibility for my actions, and I want to issue my 177 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 1: deepest apologies for Speaker Gilbert and his family reading back 178 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: those words, and he's sick to my stomach. I'm embarrassed, ashamed, 179 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: and sorry. That was not his first reaction. I think 180 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: that it's really important to say. It wasn't until people 181 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: started saying this is really gross that he said. This 182 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: is not just going to be a little political tip 183 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: where we all kind of forget what I just sat 184 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: there and said, this is not going to be a moment, 185 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 1: you know, as watered down as our politics have gotten, 186 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: talking about having children being murdered was really a line 187 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: that thankfully people still can't cross. Democrats running for office 188 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: and Democrats elected statewide in Virginia said he needs to 189 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: be accountable, but they didn't call him to drop out. 190 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: Neither did the Washington Post, which wrote an editorial, Well, 191 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: we'll see. I'm saying you need to be held accountable. 192 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 1: I don't know what accountable means, aside from dropping out 193 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: of the race and quitting doing politics like that's what 194 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 1: accountable is. Saying there's no room for that kind of 195 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:00,120 Speaker 1: rhetoric in our politics is great, but when some one 196 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: does use that kind of rhetoric, they should be punished 197 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: for it. And if you're really serious about toning down 198 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: the toning down the heat, you need to take the ultimate, 199 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: the ultimate step, and you need to sit there and 200 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: say you cannot vote for him, you cannot support him, 201 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 1: Please vote for the Republican. We're gonna win the other 202 00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: two statewide races. It doesn't or likely to win. Definitely 203 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: the governor's race and you know, possibly the lieutenant governor's 204 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: race were ahead, and the polls. It's time to be serious, people, 205 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:32,079 Speaker 1: and that means seriously not supporting J. 206 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 2: Jones. 207 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: They did not do that, and in fact, several Democrats 208 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: doubled down in their support. He didn't lose a single 209 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: national Democratic endorsement, though I will say a few Democratic 210 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,200 Speaker 1: state legislative candidates did walk away from him. So credit 211 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: goes to where it's due for those few brave people 212 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: who were like, this is just too much for those 213 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: of you who don't know much about Jay Jones. This 214 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: is the same man who once called for a Norfolk 215 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: police lieutenant to be fired after donating twenty five dollars 216 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 1: to Kyle Ridenhouse's legal defense fund. And according to the 217 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: report that I read, the police lieutenant did lose his job. 218 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: So Jay Jones does believe in accountability, that people lose 219 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: their jobs when they do something that he finds beyond 220 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: the pale, just not him. He is doubling down that 221 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: he is running this race. He is doing this and 222 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: it has opened the door for Republicans to talk about 223 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: something that people feel and understand. Republicans released an ad 224 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 1: over the weekend. I don't know how much money they're 225 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: putting behind the ad about Jay Jones's comments. Here's the 226 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: problem for Republicans. And Jason Miora is the Attorney General 227 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 1: nominee who is the incumbent, has the most money basically 228 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: of anyone in the race, and he's got millions to spend. 229 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: Here's his problem. Virginia has forty five days of early voting. 230 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: As of Saturday, three hundred and fifty four thousand people 231 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: had already cast their ballots. That's about eight percent of 232 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: the total from the twenty twenty four election in Virginia 233 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 1: and eleven percent of the twenty twenty one election in Virginia, 234 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: the governor's race in Virginia, So a lot of people 235 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: who may have been horrified and said, wow, I can't 236 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: support that kind of person already voted for him, and 237 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: then mail, by the way, lags, so it's well over 238 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty four thousand people have cast their ballid. 239 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: Because the state shouldn't have two months of early voting. 240 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 1: That's too long, and I'm sure I can. I will 241 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: bet my bottom dollar there were Republicans who absolutely supported 242 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: such a long voting voting time period. But that's what 243 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: happens when the late breaking news comes. Hundreds of thousands 244 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 1: of people already cast their balt before all the information 245 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: is there for them to see. Virginians do not register 246 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 1: to vote by parties, so we don't know how they 247 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,719 Speaker 1: would have voted. Because it's not like New Jersey, where 248 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 1: it's very clearly here's the Republican total lot, here's the 249 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:54,359 Speaker 1: Democrat turnout. Virginia, we can only look at what precincts 250 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: and counties they are voting in. What we do know 251 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: right now is is that precincts, which is like smaller 252 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: than accounties. It's just a little ara. Precincts where Trump 253 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: went in twenty twenty four have had about one hundred 254 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: and thirty six thousand voters turn out, while precincts that 255 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: Harris one have two hundred and seventeen thousand voters come out. 256 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: So it's not two to one, but it's it's a 257 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: good it's a good split. Democrats definitely had the advantage 258 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: because they've taken advantage of the mail campaign. Early voting 259 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 1: in person has just began. It should tighten. Hopefully it tightens, 260 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: but Republicans have a lot of catching up to do, 261 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: like they do in New Jersey because of the mail 262 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:43,800 Speaker 1: in voting. We'll see if j Jones's comment really changes 263 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 1: the game. I think it's something that is so horrifying 264 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: and so disgusting. Suburban women who otherwise vote Democrat but 265 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: maybe voted for Glenn Youngkin should turn on Jay Jones 266 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: and maybe it will affect the entire Democratic ticket. Who 267 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: refuses to hold actually accountable and asking him to drop 268 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: out with me today on today's episode. Is an expert 269 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: on all things Virginia politics. My conversation with him is 270 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: coming up next. My guest on today's episode is Christian Hines, 271 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: the Oracle of Virginia, expert of all things in the 272 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: States politics. Thank you for coming on, Christian. I appreciate it. 273 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me Ryan so Christian. 274 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: The text messages from Jay Jones have obviously been a 275 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: lot of controversy. Just this morning, Morning Joe Joe Scarborough, 276 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: Morning Joe call for him to drop out. How has 277 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: the text messages from Jay Jones changed or has it 278 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: changed the state of the election. 279 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 3: So this is a pretty difficult topic, right, Virginia has 280 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 3: not really had a lot of tickets split voting and 281 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 3: really the last twenty something years, right, last time that 282 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 3: this happened was two thousand and five where Republicans lost 283 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 3: the governorship and then they ended up holding on to 284 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 3: the down ballot race for attorney general. Since then, it's 285 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 3: been you know, if the Democrats win statewide or the 286 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 3: Reportublicans win statewide, then they carry. 287 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 2: Everybody underneath them. 288 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 3: I know that a lot of people have this idea 289 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 3: that this year might be a little bit different, especially 290 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 3: with you know, we have this scandal on the lieutenant 291 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 3: governor's ballot for Republicans, the Poland doesn't really look that 292 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 3: great for the top of the ticket. But obviously, the 293 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 3: context in this case is that Jay Jones said some 294 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 3: truly awful stuff. I mean, I'm sure that everybody who's 295 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 3: watching this already knows about it. But the context is 296 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 3: is that he basically went full mask off texted another 297 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 3: Republican legislator that he wanted to see the former Speaker 298 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 3: of the House of Delegates at the time, the Speaker 299 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 3: of the House of Delegates, Republican Todd Gilbert, dead by 300 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 3: his own hands, and that he wanted to see Gilbert's 301 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 3: children die and their mother's arms. And obviously, Republican Delegate 302 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 3: Carrie Coiner, just like most normal people, did not take 303 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 3: kindly to that. And then Jay dug himself an even 304 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 3: deeper hole when he tried to explain the situation to 305 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 3: Carrie and basically just confirmed that he actually did mean that. 306 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 3: And now here we are three years later and this 307 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 3: news has come out, so obviously everybody thinks that this 308 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 3: is going to affect the race, and it is. I mean, 309 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 3: Jay has not really done a great job defending himself. 310 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 3: Right his first press release that he put out, he 311 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 3: basically said that he was the victim, and that you know, 312 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 3: this is an attack by Trump, by by you know, 313 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 3: conservative outlets that are going after him. And then the 314 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 3: response from some Democrat officials in Virginia, not even just 315 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:24,400 Speaker 3: the top of the ticket, right, but you know, we're 316 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 3: talking about Louise Lucas, we're talking about state legislators and Richmond. 317 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,199 Speaker 3: It was really weak, if you think about it. They 318 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 3: stopped short of condemning it outright. They said that, you 319 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 3: know that they didn't agree with his words, but they 320 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 3: didn't condemn him. They didn't disavow him, they didn't say 321 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 3: that they would stop campaigning with him, and certainly nobody 322 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 3: has called on him to drop out. And so then 323 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 3: you have one more point that it's added on to 324 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 3: this whole saga, which is that a few days after 325 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: that state, you know, our county level and locality level 326 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 3: Democratic Party organizations, primarily in Virginia Beach but not just 327 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 3: Virginia Beach came out and said that they're still supporting him. So, 328 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that we have to be taking 329 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 3: seriously the idea that yes, he's going to be obviously 330 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 3: the worst performing Democrat on the ballot, but I think 331 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 3: he still has a shot in this thing, to be honest, 332 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 3: and I cannot believe that I'm saying that under normal 333 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 3: political circumstances he. 334 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 2: Should be losing this race. 335 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 3: If he even gets to the general election by a 336 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 3: double digit landslide, there should be like Mark Robinson in reverse, 337 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 3: and so he probably has like a fifty to fifty 338 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 3: shot of winning. 339 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: So there is a race. There was a race in 340 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: twenty thirteen for governor, lieutenant governor, and Attorney general in Virginia, 341 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: and the lieutenant governor was a black pastor I can't 342 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,400 Speaker 1: remember his name, E. W. Jackson or something like that, 343 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 1: and he lost by an eleven point landslide, and the 344 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 1: Republican running for attorney general loss by something like less 345 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: than a thousand votes. 346 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 2: It was a few hundred recount. 347 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 1: It was a recount. It was a very very close election. 348 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: And if the ken kuchnelly of the governor candidate would 349 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 1: have likely one had a libertarian not also been on 350 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 1: the ticket, taking five percent of the vote from that 351 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 1: election cycle. In that case, the candidate above them did 352 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: not affect the attorney generals of case, and it was 353 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: a very big ticket splitting election. The fact that I 354 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 1: mean is whin some Sears really holding down the whole 355 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:16,199 Speaker 1: ticket in your estimate. 356 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 3: No, what I think it is is that just the 357 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 3: secular trends in Virginia have finally reached a tipping point. 358 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,439 Speaker 3: I mean I've been saying that since twenty fourteen. You 359 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 3: can ask my good friend Nick Fredis, who's in the legislature. 360 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 2: He's actually retiring this year. 361 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 3: He and I have been going at this for over 362 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 3: ten years now, of debating which direction the state was 363 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 3: going in. And I still have the original Facebook post 364 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 3: from back when I was in college where I was like, 365 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 3: we're doomed in Virginia. I've already looked at the number, 366 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 3: you know, I was like twenty at a time. And 367 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 3: I've been believing this for a long time now, that 368 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 3: we were just moving in this direction of being basically 369 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 3: a permanent blue state. And I think a lot of 370 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 3: people kind of forget this because of Youngkins win in 371 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 3: twenty twenty one and even the fact that Republicans have 372 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 3: been competitive, you know through Trump's president. See, with the 373 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 3: exception of twenty twenty he kept it close. In twenty 374 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,880 Speaker 3: twenty four I was following the state every day. That's 375 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 3: how you and I first met. Yeah, it was it 376 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 3: was almost six. It was like five and a half, 377 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 3: and it was basically in line with where it was 378 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 3: in twenty sixteen. And so I think a lot of 379 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 3: people have looked at that. They've looked at the repeated 380 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 3: over performance of Republicans down ballot. They've done very well 381 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 3: down ballot. We kind of forget this because they don't 382 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 3: control the legislature, but you know, it's a one seat 383 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 3: majority for Democrats currently in both seats, you know, are 384 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 3: sorry both chambers of the legislature, and they only fell 385 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 3: short by just a few thousand votes in twenty twenty 386 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 3: three of actually capturing a trifecta. So we look at 387 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 3: these things and we say that, well, Virginia still a 388 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 3: swing state, it just leans blue. But I think if 389 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:44,880 Speaker 3: you look a little bit deeper at the long term trajectory, 390 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 3: to me, it's pretty clear that the state is starting 391 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,640 Speaker 3: to move out of reach for Republicans in the same 392 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 3: way that Colorado already has, and. 393 00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 2: I think we're just at that tipping point. 394 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 3: The one silver lining is is that a lot of 395 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 3: this has been driven by Northern Virginia, which obviously is 396 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 3: directly affected the federal level. And so if you get 397 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 3: say a massive reduction in a federal expenditures title contractors 398 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 3: and federal workers. Then that could theoretically shift the state 399 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 3: back into a competitive environment. But at the moment, I 400 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,200 Speaker 3: just I think that we're kind of moving into this 401 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,160 Speaker 3: perennial blue state category. 402 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: Jason Miars has raised the most amount of money as everybody. 403 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: And actually one interesting thing of how he's been able 404 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: to raise so much money is that the Muslim Brotherhood 405 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: of the United States is headquartered in Virginia, and he's 406 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 1: done he's open up investigations into the Muslim Brotherhood of America, 407 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 1: and he's gotten a lot of support from Jewish donors 408 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: across the country, like New yor other places have sat 409 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: there and said, we need someone who's going to hold 410 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: these groups accountable. And he's the only one who's going 411 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: to be able to do it. Given then he has 412 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 1: so many millions of dollars cash on hand, he has 413 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: the ability of getting this message really out there. Now 414 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: about eight to ten percent of the Virginia electorate has 415 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: already voted. Do you think that if he spends the 416 00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: money correctly, there's a way that he can pull this 417 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: out even and if the top of the ticket is lagging. 418 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 3: I mean sure, of course, especially with you know, the 419 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 3: again the type of ammunition that he's working with. I 420 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 3: probably shouldn't use that analogy, to be honest, like you know, 421 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,879 Speaker 3: in terms in terms of what Jay Jones has done 422 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 3: and said, and then his response to the original store, 423 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 3: which was, you know, arguably just made it only worse. 424 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 3: I definitely think that Miras has a shot. But you know, 425 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 3: I remember that Jeb Bush at one point had you know, 426 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 3: an infinite amount of money too, And I don't want 427 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 3: to make that comparison to say that Miaras is the 428 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 3: equivalent of Jeb Bush, because I know that in some 429 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 3: Republican circles that would be taken as an insult, and 430 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: I don't. I don't mean it as an insult. I 431 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 3: simply mean it as an analogy here that you know, 432 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 3: money does not change the fact that secular trends are 433 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 3: moving in a particular direction. 434 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 2: Do I think that Mirs has a shot? 435 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just as I do. 436 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 2: But I think it's a fifty to fifty shot. 437 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 1: It's just that you can broadcast this message at a 438 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: larger and you can make sure everybody hears it. You 439 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: have your own set of mind languish. I find so interesting, 440 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,800 Speaker 1: and your modeling found it as a So far the 441 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: early vote has sixty forty Democrat, how do you get 442 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:09,439 Speaker 1: to that estimate? 443 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 3: So the way that this works is is that Virginia 444 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 3: collects all of this data. They just don't collect party affiliation. 445 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 3: We're one of many states that we don't register by party. 446 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,439 Speaker 3: But there are many groups out there that do a 447 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 3: really good job of modeling partisanship. There's plenty on the 448 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 3: right that do this, and so what they end up 449 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 3: doing is is that they just assign a affiliation score 450 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 3: based on a variety of metrics that I won't get 451 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 3: into because it's very convoluted and boring. But the point 452 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 3: is is that you can model how much to the 453 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 3: left or right somebody is, and once you combine that 454 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 3: with how often they vote right, their propensity in voting 455 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 3: in the last four elections, and in Virginia that's easy 456 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 3: because we have an election every single year. Well, then 457 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 3: you can end up determining using the early vote numbers, 458 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 3: how many of those people are likely to show up 459 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 3: on election day. And at that point you have both 460 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 3: halfs of the puzzle that need to be put together. 461 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,359 Speaker 3: And then you can end up creating a pretty reliable 462 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,919 Speaker 3: metric for what you think the whole election is going 463 00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 3: to look like. I did this in Technically, I've been 464 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 3: doing this since twenty nineteen, but people haven't really been 465 00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 3: paying attention until twenty twenty one. I did it myself 466 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 3: privately for a campaign that I worked on in twenty nineteen. 467 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,720 Speaker 3: I did it in twenty twenty for a freightis Is 468 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 3: congressional race ironically against Spamberger, and then I did it 469 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty one for. 470 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 2: Youngkin. 471 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 3: I didn't do it Forest campaign. I did it for 472 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 3: that race. I didn't do it in twenty twenty two. 473 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 3: I had other stuff going on. 474 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: We're just being autested. In twenty twenty three, I did 475 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 1: is we're doing we're just being a testing. 476 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. I just do it because I'm I. You know, 477 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 2: I geeked out about this stuff. 478 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 3: I mean, I have done it for campaigns before, but 479 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 3: I do it myself as well just because you know, 480 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 3: I do it for the love of the game. And 481 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 3: I've done it in twenty twenty three, and obviously you 482 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,520 Speaker 3: and I first met from doing it in twenty twenty 483 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 3: four last year for the presidential and I still kick 484 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,119 Speaker 3: myself at how how it could have been closer if 485 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,879 Speaker 3: I had just tweaked a few things that hopefully. 486 00:24:58,520 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: I will get right this year. 487 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,239 Speaker 3: My goal is to get it within a point I was, 488 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 3: but technically I was just over a point off in 489 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 3: part because Rockingham County double counted their mail in vote, 490 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 3: which is I think that's cheating. 491 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 2: Literally, that is it's unfair. 492 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: Okay. So what I like about you, aside from being 493 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: very thorough, is that a lot of election analysis people 494 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: are just brazen liberals and they just pretend that they're 495 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,880 Speaker 1: being fair or non like whatever. Like even I really 496 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,120 Speaker 1: like Chasnetty Comb a lot, but he is a lib 497 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 1: and like you know, he's very much rooting for one 498 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 1: side to win. They're openly sitting there and saying Democrats 499 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: cannot only win the state House, but they can get 500 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 1: to a veto proof majority. Do you think that's possible 501 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: that Democrats Republicans will lose nine zeens. 502 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 3: Even if this is a bad year, right, if it's 503 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 3: just you know, everything breaks in their direction when you 504 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 3: look at the maps, they would have to end up 505 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 3: flipping you know, seats that voted for Trump by you know, 506 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 3: eight plus points. There's plenty of districts in Virginia that 507 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,400 Speaker 3: have been consistently Republican, even if it's been less by 508 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 3: you know, less than ten points, and they would have 509 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 3: to flip almost all of those type of seats in 510 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 3: order to get to sixty six sixty seven in the 511 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 3: House of Delegates. You know, could they pick up multiple seats? 512 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 3: I think they can. The maps are heavily weighted in 513 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 3: their favor. There's one district in Henriiko that they're they're 514 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 3: very likely to flip, in large part because they almost 515 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 3: wanted in a twenty twenty three despite having a horrible 516 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 3: campaign that was run on the part of a Democrat 517 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 3: that you know, was embroiled in a unique scandal of 518 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 3: her own. 519 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 2: Well we'll just leave horn that star. 520 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,680 Speaker 3: Yes, and they almost won that seat. So I mean, yeah, 521 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 3: there's plenty of target opportunities for them, But you know, 522 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,880 Speaker 3: is there enough for them to get to sixty seven 523 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 3: or even sixty six? I just I think that I 524 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 3: think it would be a stretch for them to get 525 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:50,000 Speaker 3: to sixty is it? 526 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 2: Is it possible? 527 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: Yes? 528 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,119 Speaker 2: Is it likely? Probably not? 529 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: So. There is a Christopher Newport pole coming out today. 530 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,360 Speaker 1: I don't really like that as a pollster. I don't 531 00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,199 Speaker 1: think they're very accurate. I think they oversampled Democrats way 532 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 1: too much. What are signs that people who are interested 533 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: should be looking at to see how the election is 534 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,840 Speaker 1: swinging and swaying in your mind going forward in the 535 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 1: last thirty days. 536 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 3: I agree with you that CNU does not have a 537 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 3: good track record. They're consistently overshooting Democrats. They've done this 538 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 3: for years. I mean, they did it even I believe 539 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,679 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty, and it was hard to overshoot Democrats 540 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 3: in Virginia in twenty twenty, right, they won the state 541 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,439 Speaker 3: by ten points, and yet CNU had I'm pretty sure 542 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 3: Biden by like twelve or fifteen or something like that. 543 00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 3: So I don't really put much stock in c ANDU, 544 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 3: but I would say that you can. You could look 545 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 3: at maybe the crosstobs. I don't know if they're going 546 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 3: to have anything about early voting. If they have that, 547 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:44,959 Speaker 3: I would take that seriously. I would not take their 548 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 3: top line party identification. If they include that, I would 549 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 3: look at that as well. So there's going to be 550 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 3: things in that poll that are valuable even if the 551 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 3: poll itself isn't valuable, and that could be indicative of 552 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 3: how the early vote and thus the entire election might 553 00:27:58,880 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 3: end going. 554 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 1: Is there any other things that we should be looking 555 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: out for, any pollsters that you look at besides the 556 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 1: CNU poll that's coming out. Is there anything we should 557 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: be looking to. 558 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, believe it or not. 559 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:09,919 Speaker 3: I mean you were talking a minute ago about how 560 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,159 Speaker 3: many you know, so many people on election Twitter on 561 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,719 Speaker 3: the left, and they are like, and I am I 562 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,959 Speaker 3: mean Ryan, you know this like I am. You know, 563 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 3: without hesitation, I will admit that I am as far 564 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 3: to the right as you possibly can go in this fear, 565 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 3: but you know, I do try to pride myself in 566 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 3: getting the outcome correct. And on the flip side, there's 567 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 3: one outlet that I would never recommend them for anything 568 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 3: other than this, and that's the Washington Post. Washington Post, 569 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 3: you know, terrible magazine, you know, not magazine, terrible newspaper 570 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,719 Speaker 3: in my opinion, But their polling track record is not awful. 571 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 3: In Virginia, they had Harris winning Virginia by six and 572 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 3: last year in twenty twenty four and she wanted by 573 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 3: almost six And they were one of a handful of 574 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 3: outlets that said that this was going to be a 575 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 3: very competitive race for governor in twenty twenty one, and 576 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 3: it turned out to be. 577 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: And well they had ours, not bad. They did six 578 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,120 Speaker 1: among register voters, not likely leaders. They had an I 579 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: talked about that at the top of the show. They 580 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: are a good polster. They lean a little to the left, 581 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 1: but they are a good polster. But I don't know 582 00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: if they're going to do another poll before the election day. 583 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: It's the only thing, but I hope that they do 584 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: because things may have changed with the whole texting scandal. 585 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 1: I think it is a serious scandal. I think it's 586 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 1: actually real and it could change things with Christian Where 587 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 1: can people go to read more about you your analysis 588 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 1: which is very very good. You're very thorough, and you're 589 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 1: one of the smarter people who is not an open 590 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: you know, liberal rooting for Democrats to win and just 591 00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: you know, trend forecasting for it. Where can people go 592 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 1: to read more of your stuff? 593 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 2: So I'm mostly on x Ryan. 594 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 3: You you know about this because you know we've been 595 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 3: following each other for so long, But you could just 596 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 3: follow me on at Christian Hines And it's a really 597 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 3: weird way to spell Hines and it's h E I E. 598 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 2: N s. So like old McDonald E. 599 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 3: I E. 600 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. 601 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 3: I don't know where that came from, but you know 602 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 3: it is a German last name. So that's where I 603 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 3: post most of this stuff if they're really into, you know, 604 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:55,920 Speaker 3: just in. 605 00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 2: The weeds type of stuff about politics. 606 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 3: I also co host the Making the Argument podcast with 607 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 3: Nick Fredis, who is a he's actually my state delegate 608 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 3: currently he's leaving office at the end of this year, 609 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 3: but he's also prominent on online as well when I'm 610 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 3: on a show twice a week. So those are the 611 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 3: two places that if people really wanted to they could 612 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 3: find me. 613 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: Well, Christian, thank you for being here. I really appreciate it. 614 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 2: Thanks a lot. Ryan. 615 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 1: Now it's time for Ask Me Anything. If you weren't 616 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, please email 617 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,040 Speaker 1: me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's Ryan 618 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 1: at Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcast dot com. I love 619 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 1: these questions. They help the show. I look forward to 620 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,239 Speaker 1: them every day and I reply to every single one, 621 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,880 Speaker 1: either privately or on air. So this question comes from 622 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: juny Perow. This is a pseudonym, so Jinnipero, thank you 623 00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 1: for listening to this podcast. He asked for some clarifications 624 00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 1: on things I have said on previous episodes. He says, 625 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: is New Jersey going from blue to purple the unusual 626 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 1: given West Virginia's trajectory in recent decades. I don't remember 627 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 1: saying that, but I do compare the states often because 628 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 1: it just shows how quickly states can change. From nineteen 629 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 1: sixty eight to nineteen eighty eight, for twenty years, Virginia 630 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 1: was a pretty solidly Republican state and West Virginia was 631 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: a solid Democrat state. West Virginia voted for Democrats in 632 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: eight out of ten elections from nineteen sixty to two thousand. 633 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: I remember Bill Clinton won West Virginia twice, as did 634 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 1: Jimmy Carter against Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty. I was 635 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:32,000 Speaker 1: probably just talking about why how states can change very 636 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,360 Speaker 1: quickly in the blink of an eye, and I probably 637 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:38,240 Speaker 1: sometimes my brain is going faster than my mouth, so 638 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: I forget a worry when I'm just ad libbing, which 639 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: is why I write everything down. New Jersey is turning 640 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 1: into a swing state, though, because something very unique is 641 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 1: happening in the Tri state area that is universally not 642 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 1: happening nationwide, and it's a lot of ethnic minorities, especially 643 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 1: recent immigrants, have really turned on Democrats. Plus a lot 644 00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 1: there is in places like New York City, there is 645 00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 1: a declining black population. They are the most loyal Democratic voters. 646 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,120 Speaker 1: In New Jersey, it is a stagnant Black American population. 647 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,720 Speaker 1: That does not mean black Americans period. That means historically 648 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 1: black Americans. Black immigrants are responsible for most of the 649 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 1: increase of the black population. It also helps a New 650 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: Jersey the fifteen percent of the population is Italian. Italians 651 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 1: are one of the most reliably Republican voting blocks who 652 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 1: are white. He also asks, are Armenian slash Georgians really white? Now? 653 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: I ask because technically I'm Armenian and I've always described 654 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,800 Speaker 1: it as West Asian given the east of Bosporusic. I 655 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 1: don't know what that means. Sorry, but our Armenians and 656 00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,240 Speaker 1: Georgians are really white. Yes. Under the census, Armenians are 657 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 1: categorized as white, which is what I am using when 658 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: I'm describing them, is how census data is looking at them. 659 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: I'm in twenty ten, the census officially changed where Armenians, Georgians, 660 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,719 Speaker 1: and West Asians are categorized as white. You can call 661 00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 1: it whatever you like to, but on the census data, 662 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:01,880 Speaker 1: when you're looking at since stated, they are counted as white. 663 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 1: So Kim Kardashian is white, despite her despite her fake 664 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 1: tan and all the men that she has dated, she 665 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: is white according to the census. Lastly, any thoughts advice 666 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 1: about attending law school. I work for fed SOOC and 667 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:19,120 Speaker 1: on our GOP congressional campaign, among other places, and I'm 668 00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,520 Speaker 1: submitting applications at the end of the month. This is 669 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: a very difficult question for me because not only did 670 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 1: I not go to law school, I barely went to college, 671 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: and I went to just a community college nearby. I 672 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: was not a good student of my entire life. It's 673 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 1: just not that I don't appreciate someone who goes to 674 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 1: get a degree. It's just I don't learn in a classroom. 675 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,960 Speaker 1: I'm not like that. But my best advice I could 676 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 1: give is look at where the most opportunities are to 677 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 1: either clerk or to get an internship at a top 678 00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: law firm. The job economy sucks, the job market sucks 679 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 1: right now. You want to go in. If you're in 680 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,000 Speaker 1: a stout for three years, you want to go in 681 00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 1: to make as much connections as you possibly can, so 682 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: you don't have to send a resume online. You can 683 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,720 Speaker 1: actually make phone calls and get meetings beforehand. I think 684 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: that that's the best advice you could possibly give. Figure 685 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 1: out which law firm focus is, what you wanted, what 686 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,440 Speaker 1: you want to do, and really make sure they have 687 00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:15,120 Speaker 1: a good list of people who went there, and try 688 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,799 Speaker 1: to hustle a network you know you want to. You 689 00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 1: want to go to college, whether it be law school 690 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,359 Speaker 1: or anything else, and you want you you go there 691 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,280 Speaker 1: to make people, to make connections, because the minute you graduate, 692 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,560 Speaker 1: you've got to hit the ground running. Because what I 693 00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 1: tell myself every day working in all my various jobs, 694 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 1: and what I have told myself i'm thirty eight now 695 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 1: for the last twenty years, is that there are a 696 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 1: million people behind you who want your job, and you 697 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 1: better hustle to try to beat every one of them. 698 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,520 Speaker 1: Even though you can't see them, they are all wanting 699 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 1: your job, so you better work at it every day 700 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,879 Speaker 1: like you've never done it before, and like you're someone 701 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 1: who's got something to lose. So that's my best advice. 702 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,720 Speaker 1: I don't know if it helps, I think to law school, 703 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 1: but good luck. I hope you get into whatever law 704 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,320 Speaker 1: firm you apply to, and I hope you keep listening 705 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 1: to the podcast. Thank you all for listening. If you 706 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, 707 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,960 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, or wherever you listen, and I will see 708 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: you guys on Thursday. Go vote