WEBVTT - Why do scientists do simulations?

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, am I speaking to the real Joorge today?

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<v Speaker 2>Who else could it be?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. It could be the simulated Jorge or

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<v Speaker 1>an AI generated horheage GPT.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, chat Jorge. Would it make a difference.

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<v Speaker 1>That sounds like something the simulated Jorge would say?

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<v Speaker 2>Mmm. I kind of wish I had simulated Horges. Then

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<v Speaker 2>I might avoid a lot of mistakes I make. Or

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<v Speaker 2>they could do all the work while I sleep in.

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<v Speaker 1>Why do you think simulated Hojoges are less likely to

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<v Speaker 1>make mistakes?

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<v Speaker 2>No? I mean they would do the mistakes, and then

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<v Speaker 2>I would learn from them. That's the idea.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>That does sound useful, But I think you have to

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<v Speaker 1>be careful about the sim Jorges organizing and rising up

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<v Speaker 1>against you.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh do you think.

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<v Speaker 2>They would form their own union or a revolt?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you mean, yeah, either mutiny or fair wages. Either one.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I could just pay them in simulated money.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess as long as they can use that to

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<v Speaker 1>feed their simulated children, I bet they'd be happy. Oh.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I definitely provide simulated benefits too. The whole simulated

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<v Speaker 2>family gets a bonus.

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<v Speaker 1>You're not a good employer, but you can simulate one.

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<v Speaker 2>Hi, I'm Jory mccartoonists and the author of Oliver's Great

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<v Speaker 2>Big Universe. Hi.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Daniel.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a particle physicist and a professor at UC Irvine,

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<v Speaker 1>and I am constantly simulating crazy conditions.

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<v Speaker 2>You mean in your life or in your work.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, work is a big part of my life. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>my job involves simulating collisions at very high energies all

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<v Speaker 1>the time.

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<v Speaker 2>And you also actually do them, right, You actually collide

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<v Speaker 2>things at the Large Hadron Collider.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right. We both collide particles together in real life,

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<v Speaker 1>and we simulate what would happen if we collided particles

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<v Speaker 1>under various different potential laws of the universe to see

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<v Speaker 1>what might happen. Will the Earth get gobbled up with

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<v Speaker 1>to create a black hole that destroys the Earth or not?

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<v Speaker 1>Let's find out.

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<v Speaker 2>Does that mean your whole career is a simulation or

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<v Speaker 2>your whole life?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, our computers are not fast enough to keep

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<v Speaker 1>up with reality. So while we generate lots and lots

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<v Speaker 1>of simulated collisions, the real collider has generated more collisions

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<v Speaker 1>than we could ever simulate.

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<v Speaker 2>But how do you know, Daniel, that we're not in

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<v Speaker 2>a simulation right now, Like you might think you're doing experiments,

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<v Speaker 2>but really you're just inside of a video game somewhere.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I want to find the cheap goods, then, well I.

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<v Speaker 2>Think if you had found them by now, you probably

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<v Speaker 2>would have a noble price.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, I'm hoping smashing particles together gives me the cheek goods.

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<v Speaker 2>And then that opens up the real boss level.

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<v Speaker 1>Where I fight the simulated army of Jorges.

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<v Speaker 2>No, you fight the real Jegeo. That's the real boss.

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<v Speaker 2>But anyways, welcome to our podcast Daniel and Jorge Explain

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<v Speaker 2>the Universe, a production of iHeartRadio.

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<v Speaker 1>In which we use our tiny little minds to try

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<v Speaker 1>to understand the vast universe. We hope to build in

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<v Speaker 1>your head a simulation of sorts, one that describes the

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<v Speaker 1>way the real universe works out there. We hope to

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<v Speaker 1>encode into your brain some laws of physics that will

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<v Speaker 1>help you understand how the real universe out there is

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<v Speaker 1>smashing and bashing to create our Bonker's reality.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right, the universe are doing all kinds of amazing

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<v Speaker 2>and awe sometimes and saying things out there in reality.

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<v Speaker 2>And so it's our job as humans and as scientists

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<v Speaker 2>to understand what's going on and to ask questions, to

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<v Speaker 2>probe into the true answers to why things are the

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<v Speaker 2>way they are.

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<v Speaker 1>And the classical way that science does this is with

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<v Speaker 1>theories and experiments, hypotheses and tests. You have an idea,

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<v Speaker 1>you go and see out there in the universe. If

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<v Speaker 1>it works, you predict something happens, and you go and

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<v Speaker 1>check to see if it does. But the modern scientific

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<v Speaker 1>method has a third way, which lives sort of uncomfortably

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<v Speaker 1>between theory and experiments.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, why is it uncomfortable? Is it like uncomfortable, awkward

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<v Speaker 2>or uncomfortable, like physically uncomfortable.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a little bit uncomfortable for those of us who

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<v Speaker 1>specialize in not to know where we fit into the

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<v Speaker 1>picture of science. Some people consider me experimental physicists. Some

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<v Speaker 1>people are like, nah, he mostly runs simulation, so he's

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<v Speaker 1>really a theorist. So you can be sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>uncomfortably between two different communities. If you do a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of simulations.

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<v Speaker 2>You start your own simulated community. Can you be like

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<v Speaker 2>a simulating physicist.

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<v Speaker 1>A simulator a simulate trist. That sounds not safe for work.

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<v Speaker 2>Actually, I don't know what you mean, but I'll take

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<v Speaker 2>your word for it.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, academic communities change pretty slowly, and for example,

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<v Speaker 1>in departments of physics, people tend to hire people that

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<v Speaker 1>are like them. The experimentalists get to hire somebody. They

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<v Speaker 1>want to hire somebody who's a blue blooded experimentalist down

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<v Speaker 1>to the core. So if you work at the intersection

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<v Speaker 1>of fields, you do some experiments, you do some theory,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe even do some computer science and machine learning, then

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<v Speaker 1>you don't necessarily have a home, you don't have a

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<v Speaker 1>tribe that's going to go to bat for you to

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<v Speaker 1>get hired. So it's sort of about the sociology of

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<v Speaker 1>science as a real practice.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think that kind of makes sense, right, Like

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<v Speaker 2>why hire a simulating physicist when you can just simulate one?

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<v Speaker 2>Why go to all the trouble?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I think that's true. If we could simulate physicists,

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<v Speaker 1>we could get a lot more done. But we're not

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<v Speaker 1>quite there yet. Human physicists still have a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of an edge.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, maybe till next week when chat GPT catches up

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<v Speaker 2>and starts doing physics.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, have you ever asked chat GPT a physics question.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't get physics out, that's for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>But anyways, it is an interesting universe because I guess

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<v Speaker 2>sometimes there are questions. You can't just go out there

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<v Speaker 2>and try for yourself in the universe, right, that's right.

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<v Speaker 1>Simulation has emerged in the past fifty years as an

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinarily powerful tool as a little bit of experiment and

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of theory, and it lets us answer

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<v Speaker 1>questions that we otherwise could not answer. It really is

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<v Speaker 1>a completely new tool in the science tool.

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<v Speaker 2>Belt, although I would argue it's maybe one of the

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<v Speaker 2>oldest tools in science. And so today on the podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll be asking the question why do scientists do simulations?

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<v Speaker 2>Why do scientists do anything.

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<v Speaker 1>Other than the obvious that simulations are so much fun.

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<v Speaker 1>You get to build your own little universe. You are

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<v Speaker 1>the creator and god of that simulated universe.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh boy, is that that the ultimate goal? There? To

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<v Speaker 2>be gods? No, you know, you don't have to get

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<v Speaker 2>a degree for that. You could just buy some legos.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, I've been doing that since I was a little kid.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want more and more powerful simulations.

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<v Speaker 2>You want more powerful legos, smaller legos.

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<v Speaker 1>Jokes aside, There is a real sense of power when

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<v Speaker 1>you create a simulated universe, because you are deciding what

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<v Speaker 1>the laws of physics are in that universe, what particles

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<v Speaker 1>do they have, how do they interact? And then you

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<v Speaker 1>get to see how it all plays out.

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<v Speaker 2>Mmmm yeah, I sort of get that. I mean I

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<v Speaker 2>write a lot, I create characters, and I sort of

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<v Speaker 2>build my own world. What's the difference.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you could think of fiction as simulated human interaction

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<v Speaker 1>and lives. Right, we're exploring what it would be like

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<v Speaker 1>to be in those situations.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Wait, did you just say your work.

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<v Speaker 1>Is simulations are definitely fiction. Sometimes they align with reality,

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<v Speaker 1>and one deep question is how well they align? What

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<v Speaker 1>lessons you can learn from your simulated fiction that carry

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<v Speaker 1>over into the real world.

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<v Speaker 2>Interesting, So your research is science fiction is what you're saying.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I've always argued that there's a strong connection

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<v Speaker 1>between science and science fiction.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>One aspect of science is like, well, what are the laws?

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<v Speaker 3>Could they be?

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<v Speaker 1>This?

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<v Speaker 3>Could they be?

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<v Speaker 2>That?

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<v Speaker 1>There's an element of creativity and exploration there, absolutely so. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm constantly creating science fiction universes and trying to see

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<v Speaker 1>if they line up with ours.

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<v Speaker 2>And then you wonder why the other physicis don't want

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<v Speaker 2>to play with you.

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<v Speaker 1>Fortunately I got tenured before I revealed all of these

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<v Speaker 1>crazy instincts. That's the game.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this is an interesting question, and so as usual,

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<v Speaker 2>we were wondering how many people out there had thought

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<v Speaker 2>about why scientists do the things they do, and in particular,

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<v Speaker 2>why they do simulations in their work.

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<v Speaker 1>So thanks very much to everybody who answers these questions

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<v Speaker 1>for this fun segment of the podcast, one of my favorites.

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<v Speaker 1>If you like to join the team or just answer

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<v Speaker 1>one or two questions right to us to questions at

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<v Speaker 1>Danielandhorge dot com.

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<v Speaker 2>So think about it for a second. If someone asks

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<v Speaker 2>you why scientists do simulations, what would you say.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, using simulations, we can observe scenarios in our models

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<v Speaker 4>that we can't necessarily observe in real life, and see

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<v Speaker 4>what can happen in certain situations like in a black

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<v Speaker 4>hole or when galaxies collide or something like that.

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<v Speaker 5>Scientists do simulations because the universe is really old, really big,

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<v Speaker 5>sometimes really destructive. Frankly, I'm happy they do a lot

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<v Speaker 5>of that modeling and simulations and don't necessarily try to

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<v Speaker 5>create big bang conditions on a big scale, or the

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<v Speaker 5>explosion of stars or something.

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<v Speaker 2>Couple of interesting answers did anyone look at you funny

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<v Speaker 2>when you ask them the question.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. These were all on the internet, so

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<v Speaker 1>I couldn't capture their facial expressions. Did they send an emoji?

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<v Speaker 1>But I do sense some relief in there that, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>we are trying to simulate galaxy collisions rather than trying

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<v Speaker 1>to arrange galaxy collisions.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, if we could do that, that'd be pretty cool.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, not for those galaxies, but just to have

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<v Speaker 2>that power.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, you'd have to have like sign offs from every

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<v Speaker 1>alien civilization in both galaxies before you could even begin.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess that would be the polite thing to do. Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>But anyways, as you were saying, this is a big

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<v Speaker 2>part of how science is done these days, and so Daniel,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess let's start from the basics. What is a

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<v Speaker 2>simulation in your view as a physicists.

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<v Speaker 1>So, a simulation, or more specifically, a computer simulation, is

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<v Speaker 1>a specific program that involves a scientific model. A model

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<v Speaker 1>is like our picture of how the world might work.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like a simplified version of the real universe. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>us explore a specific question, and a simulation is usually

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<v Speaker 1>a program on a computer that uses like step by

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<v Speaker 1>step methods to explore the behavior of that model.

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<v Speaker 2>And usually this model has the form of an equation, right, Like,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, F equalsma is a model of the world, right,

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<v Speaker 2>and how things move in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the science we do is mathematical, and the way

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<v Speaker 1>we describe things is mathematical, and so usually that involves equations,

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<v Speaker 1>equations that represent constraints on the model, like the way

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<v Speaker 1>things have to happen. And as you say, F equals

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<v Speaker 1>ma is a model. If I want to toss a

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<v Speaker 1>baseball across my backyard, I want to answer the question

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<v Speaker 1>where is it going to land? Then I have lots

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<v Speaker 1>of possible ways to answer that question, but the most

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<v Speaker 1>appropriate ways to make the simplest model possible that still

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<v Speaker 1>captures everything that I'm interested in, and so often in

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<v Speaker 1>our world, like when we're tossing baseballs, we can do

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<v Speaker 1>something pretty simple just F equals ma, which ignores all

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<v Speaker 1>sorts of swarming quantum details about what's happening inside at

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<v Speaker 1>the baseball and just describes simple motion of a parabole.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's almost like you. I mean, as a scientist,

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<v Speaker 2>you're trying to come up with the rules of the universe, right,

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<v Speaker 2>that's sort of the goal of science, right, And what

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<v Speaker 2>sometimes that rule looks like is in a question that says,

0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:17.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, if you have a mass and you apply

0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:19.679
<v Speaker 2>a force to it, then it's going to start moving

0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:20.839
<v Speaker 2>with a certain acceleration.

0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.880
<v Speaker 1>Exactly in your words, these are all science fictions. We're

0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:26.120
<v Speaker 1>living in this world and we're wondering what are the rules,

0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:28.040
<v Speaker 1>and so we're trying a bunch of different rules, saying

0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.560
<v Speaker 1>does this rule describe our universe? Does that rule describe

0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:34.000
<v Speaker 1>our universe? So every sort of theoretical exploration of the

0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:37.400
<v Speaker 1>universe involves building a model and then asking the question

0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.960
<v Speaker 1>does that model align with the reality that we see.

0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.920
<v Speaker 1>Computer simulations are a special kind of model or a

0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:47.120
<v Speaker 1>special what a test? Really complicated models that we can't

0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:50.560
<v Speaker 1>otherwise test, Like the model F equals M a pretty simple.

0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.120
<v Speaker 1>I can use pencil and paper to make predictions, and

0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:54.960
<v Speaker 1>then I can throw a ball in my backyard to

0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:56.720
<v Speaker 1>confirm those predictions.

0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:58.720
<v Speaker 2>Right, because I guess F equals A has like a

0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.480
<v Speaker 2>mathematical But I think the idea is that you take

0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:03.240
<v Speaker 2>in a question like F equals in May and you

0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:06.000
<v Speaker 2>basically program that into a computer and say, you know,

0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:09.640
<v Speaker 2>any masses in this program, they have to move according

0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:10.440
<v Speaker 2>to this law.

0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:12.960
<v Speaker 1>That's right. If, for example, I don't just want to

0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:15.400
<v Speaker 1>describe one ball, but I want to describe like ten

0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:19.400
<v Speaker 1>to the twenty five balls, right, some huge number of balls.

0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:22.559
<v Speaker 1>Maybe I'm modeling an ideal gas, or like a swimming

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.120
<v Speaker 1>pool full of ping pong balls or something, and I

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.000
<v Speaker 1>want to describe that. Then I can no longer use

0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:28.959
<v Speaker 1>pencil and paper. But you're in. I can take those

0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.240
<v Speaker 1>equations and put them into a computer and ask the

0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.120
<v Speaker 1>computer to force those balls to follow that equation, and

0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.720
<v Speaker 1>then I could see what happens. It's sort of like

0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:38.559
<v Speaker 1>a virtual experiment.

0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.559
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's like you're creating your own little universe.

0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:44.720
<v Speaker 1>Right exactly. And this becomes super essential when we don't

0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:48.080
<v Speaker 1>have like a single equation that describes everything, Like we

0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:51.280
<v Speaker 1>don't have a solution to what happens when you put

0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:53.800
<v Speaker 1>ten to the twenty five ping pong balls into a

0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:55.920
<v Speaker 1>swimming pool. We just don't know how to do that

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.440
<v Speaker 1>calculation to come up with some nice summary of the results.

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:01.840
<v Speaker 1>What we can do is put it into a computer

0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.959
<v Speaker 1>and have the computer step it forward in time very carefully,

0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 1>and we can see what happens without ever actually having

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:09.800
<v Speaker 1>to buy that number of ping bomb balls.

0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:12.720
<v Speaker 2>Right. That's sort of the power of the computer, right,

0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.440
<v Speaker 2>Like you can simulate one ball, which is a calculator, right,

0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.400
<v Speaker 2>Like you can say after one second, it's going to

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:19.839
<v Speaker 2>be here, after two seconds, it is going to be

0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.880
<v Speaker 2>here by following these rules. But if you have, like

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 2>you said, a whole bunch of balls, or a more

0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.960
<v Speaker 2>complicated system, then a computer can sort of do all

0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 2>those calculations for you faster, exactly.

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.960
<v Speaker 1>One huge advantage is tackling a very large number of objects,

0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.040
<v Speaker 1>and the other is when we don't have the equations,

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 1>we don't know how to solve them, Like for f equals,

0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:42.720
<v Speaker 1>I may we know how to solve that. Technically, that

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 1>is a differential equation because A is a second derivative

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.200
<v Speaker 1>of position, right, there's derivatives on both sides. And in

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 1>general and mathematics, differential equations are very very hard to solve.

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 1>This a small number that we actually know how to solve.

0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:58.880
<v Speaker 1>So sometimes you have a system that's described by a

0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:02.480
<v Speaker 1>differential equation you don't know how to solve, Like fluid flow,

0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.440
<v Speaker 1>for example, described by the Navier Stokes equation. We don't

0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 1>know how to solve that. In general. But what we

0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 1>can do on a computer is approximated. You can say,

0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:12.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, let's just move it forward in time, not

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.640
<v Speaker 1>a year or a minute or some long period of time,

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:18.760
<v Speaker 1>but just like a microsecond, and across a microsecond, we

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.360
<v Speaker 1>can make some approximations. We can say, let's not use

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.560
<v Speaker 1>the full equation, let's simplify it and take some like

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>linear approximation of it, and then if we take a

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of tiny little steps, we hope that we roughly

0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:29.520
<v Speaker 1>get the right answer.

0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.240
<v Speaker 2>Right, because I think, as you were saying, like something

0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.240
<v Speaker 2>like f EQUOSM has the solution, meaning that you can

0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.200
<v Speaker 2>derive a formula for like the precision of your ball

0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.240
<v Speaker 2>at all times, where you can just like after three

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:41.960
<v Speaker 2>seconds you just put the time in and it gives

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.000
<v Speaker 2>you the position of the ball, right, because you can

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 2>integrate that equation and find the solution. But some equations

0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 2>you can, like they're so complex you can get a

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.400
<v Speaker 2>formally that will tell you what's going to happen ten

0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 2>years from now or twenty years from now. Right, those

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 2>you need to do little steps by little steps exactly.

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.240
<v Speaker 1>And the crucial idea there is that you're making a

0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 1>linear approximation you're taking the full equation which you don't

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:02.840
<v Speaker 1>know how to solve, and you're saying, well, let's replace

0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 1>it with an approximate version of it, which is not

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:07.520
<v Speaker 1>going to be correct, but it might be correct for

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:11.040
<v Speaker 1>like a microsecond. And so we'll use the approximate linear

0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 1>version of that that we do know how to solve

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:15.120
<v Speaker 1>from a tiny little step, and then we'll start again,

0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:17.240
<v Speaker 1>and we'll make another tiny little step, and we hope

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 1>them little mistakes cancel out and don't build up into

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:21.240
<v Speaker 1>some big overall mistake.

0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 2>Right Yeah. It's almost like if you take small enough steps,

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:28.000
<v Speaker 2>then you're less likely to deviate from the reality of.

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.560
<v Speaker 1>It, right, Yeah, exactly. And people who do approximations know

0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 1>that there's lots of times this is useful. Like you

0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.360
<v Speaker 1>want to calculate Trigg function like sign sign is really

0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.480
<v Speaker 1>hard to calculate like sort of from scratch, but for

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>very small values of the angle, sign of x is

0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.640
<v Speaker 1>just equal to x, you can like approximate this complicated

0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.280
<v Speaker 1>function with a simple one. It mostly gets the right answer.

0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 1>That's just one example.

0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure you're going to Trigonometry usually makes things

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 2>you understand, but I think I think we get the idea,

0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:57.120
<v Speaker 2>which is that you know, if you take small enough

0:15:57.160 --> 0:16:00.360
<v Speaker 2>steps and you you sort of a simplified version of

0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 2>your model, then you're less likely to make mistakes.

0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 1>Exactly. You can't trust those approximations forward a second or

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 1>a minute or a year, but you could trust them

0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>like a microsecond. And so you have the simulated universe

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.320
<v Speaker 1>in your computer. You feed in the initial conditions, and

0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:18.320
<v Speaker 1>then you ask it to take a step forward in time,

0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.720
<v Speaker 1>and you ask it to take another step forward, and

0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 1>if you have enough computing power, you can run it

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 1>for a while and you can see what happens to

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:27.680
<v Speaker 1>all my ping pong balls in my simulated swimming pool,

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 1>or what happens to my galaxy as the stars all

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 1>swirl around each other.

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:35.160
<v Speaker 2>Right, Like you were saying, like fluids are notoriously really

0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 2>hard to solve as an equation, right, These are really

0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 2>complex equations that govern what's going on because they sort

0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:43.640
<v Speaker 2>of like depend on a lot of things. Like there's

0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 2>a lot going on, right, there's time, and then there's

0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:49.080
<v Speaker 2>distance and the velocity of things and all those factor

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 2>in that's hard or impossible to like predict exactly what's

0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:53.960
<v Speaker 2>going to happen in the future exactly.

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:57.240
<v Speaker 1>And the big complication there is the interactions. Like back

0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:58.880
<v Speaker 1>to the ping pong balls. If you just had a

0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.000
<v Speaker 1>lot of ping pong balls and they're all flying around

0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 1>but not touching each other, it wouldn't be that hard

0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:05.960
<v Speaker 1>to calculate what's going to happen to each one, But

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.160
<v Speaker 1>as soon as they start banging against each other, becomes

0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.040
<v Speaker 1>much much more complicated because the solution of ping pong

0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:13.879
<v Speaker 1>ball number six hundred and forty two now depends on

0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:17.040
<v Speaker 1>ping pong ball number one, one hundred and eleven and

0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 1>every other ping pong ball, so becomes much more complicated.

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 1>And that's why fluids are so complicated, because every sheet

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 1>of the fluid depends on the friction with the other

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:27.959
<v Speaker 1>sheet of the fluid. And that's what makes the Navier

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.440
<v Speaker 1>Stokes equation, for example, so intractable.

0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:32.679
<v Speaker 2>Right, And so you take it little by little, and

0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 2>so you say, okay, this time, I'm going to ignore

0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:37.520
<v Speaker 2>some of these effects and just take one small step

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.680
<v Speaker 2>to see where all those little molecules go. And then

0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.960
<v Speaker 2>you keep repeating that and hopefully it sort of looks

0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:45.080
<v Speaker 2>like the real thing.

0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:48.119
<v Speaker 1>Exactly, and it gives you this incredible power that you

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:52.240
<v Speaker 1>can hopefully identify emergent behavior. The way we do science

0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:54.560
<v Speaker 1>in our universe is that we like focus on one

0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:57.399
<v Speaker 1>level where we understand things we can describe, like the

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.840
<v Speaker 1>microphysics of how particles being against each other. But sometimes

0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:03.520
<v Speaker 1>we're interested in things at another level, Like you understand

0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:05.640
<v Speaker 1>how rain drops move through the wind, but your real

0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:08.400
<v Speaker 1>question is like is this hurricane going to hit Florida

0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.879
<v Speaker 1>or Alabama? And so even if you don't have like

0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.600
<v Speaker 1>an equation that describes hurricanes, if you have an equation

0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:16.359
<v Speaker 1>that describes the rain drops, you can feed that all

0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:19.439
<v Speaker 1>into your computer, run simulations, and then get answers to

0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.600
<v Speaker 1>your higher level question. You can see like the emergent

0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.160
<v Speaker 1>phenomena of the hurricane in simulation.

0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's dig a little bit deeper into how simulation

0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:32.439
<v Speaker 2>works and the things like weather and why scientists use

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:36.000
<v Speaker 2>simulations to try to learn things about the real universe.

0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:51.000
<v Speaker 2>But first let's take a quick break. All right, we're

0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:53.399
<v Speaker 2>having a simulation of a podcast here, right, We're not

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.199
<v Speaker 2>really having a podcast, right, We're just pretending to have

0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 2>a podcast.

0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:00.400
<v Speaker 1>We're simulating the process of injecting ideas into listen in our.

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:03.879
<v Speaker 2>Minds, and so we're talking about why scientists use simulations,

0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 2>and it's kind of, I guess a philosophical question, perhaps

0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:10.880
<v Speaker 2>because doing a simulation of reality is not really reality, right,

0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 2>and so, and you're not really experimenting on reality. So

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:16.720
<v Speaker 2>it's kind of a I guess, a funny thing for

0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 2>scientists to do it because you're not really doing experiments

0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:21.360
<v Speaker 2>in the real world. But it's at the same time

0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:22.400
<v Speaker 2>really helpful. Right.

0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:24.840
<v Speaker 1>That's true, But that same criticism could be applied to

0:19:24.880 --> 0:19:28.560
<v Speaker 1>basically everything in science. When we do science, we never

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:32.200
<v Speaker 1>use all of the full gory details of the universe

0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:35.720
<v Speaker 1>to answer a question. We're always using some stripped down

0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:39.439
<v Speaker 1>version because otherwise it's totally intractable. Like when we do

0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>F equals M, even for a single ball flying through

0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:45.320
<v Speaker 1>the air, we're ignoring lots of stuff. We're ignoring air resistance,

0:19:45.359 --> 0:19:48.280
<v Speaker 1>we're ignoring quantum effects of the particles inside of it.

0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:50.840
<v Speaker 1>We're ignoring all sorts of things because we don't think

0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:53.480
<v Speaker 1>that they are important. And so every time you build

0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.880
<v Speaker 1>a model of the universe, theoretical or simulation, you're always

0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:59.280
<v Speaker 1>making a choice about what to ignore and what to include.

0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.160
<v Speaker 2>Well, we talked a lot about what a simulation is right.

0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:04.639
<v Speaker 2>It's a computer program where you program in the rules

0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:07.720
<v Speaker 2>that you think that the world follows the rules of

0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:09.959
<v Speaker 2>the universe, at least in your simulated universe, and then

0:20:10.000 --> 0:20:13.280
<v Speaker 2>you sort of let the computer kind of run this world,

0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:15.479
<v Speaker 2>and then it sort of tells you what may or

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.560
<v Speaker 2>may will sort of happen.

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.320
<v Speaker 1>Exactly, and it lets you examine all sorts of universes

0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:23.160
<v Speaker 1>you don't otherwise have access to, like in my work,

0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:25.399
<v Speaker 1>and let's me answer questions like what would I see

0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.919
<v Speaker 1>in our particle detectors if the Higgs boson was this

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:31.680
<v Speaker 1>kind of particle, or what if there was no Higgs boson,

0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.160
<v Speaker 1>or what if it had twice the mass that it had?

0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 1>What would we see in our detectors? What would that

0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:37.359
<v Speaker 1>universe be?

0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:37.719
<v Speaker 2>Like?

0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:39.600
<v Speaker 1>What would those experiments result in?

0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:42.439
<v Speaker 2>So it gives you ideas for experiments, or it's a

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:45.480
<v Speaker 2>sort it can guide your real experiments. Right, that's part

0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:46.000
<v Speaker 2>of the idea.

0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:49.880
<v Speaker 1>Right, It's actually crucial for interpreting our experiments. When we

0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 1>look at data from the actual collider and we see

0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:54.600
<v Speaker 1>these splashes of energy here and splashes of energy there,

0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:57.160
<v Speaker 1>and we look at the patterns the correlations. The way

0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:01.160
<v Speaker 1>we interpret those is by comparing them to simulations, we say,

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.440
<v Speaker 1>is this consistent with the higgs boson with these properties

0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:06.240
<v Speaker 1>or is it more consistent with the higgs boson with

0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:09.760
<v Speaker 1>some other properties. So the simulation in some sense defines

0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:12.800
<v Speaker 1>the ideas that we're considering, the various hypotheses that we're

0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:14.000
<v Speaker 1>trying to distinguish between.

0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:17.120
<v Speaker 2>Right, It lets you explore the possibilities. That's the idea

0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:19.360
<v Speaker 2>of a simulation. Right, Let's you maybe make mistakes.

0:21:19.440 --> 0:21:22.200
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely, and before we build a detector, we simulated to

0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:24.880
<v Speaker 1>see like is this going to work or how well

0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:27.280
<v Speaker 1>is it going to perform? Or oops, turns out we

0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:29.439
<v Speaker 1>need to swap the order these two things or nothing's

0:21:29.480 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 1>going to work. So yeah, making mistakes and simulation is

0:21:31.920 --> 0:21:33.760
<v Speaker 1>much cheaper than making them in reality.

0:21:33.880 --> 0:21:36.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And as you were saying, simulations play a big

0:21:36.080 --> 0:21:38.720
<v Speaker 2>part in weather prediction, right, I mean that's how weather

0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:41.160
<v Speaker 2>predictions work. Like when you look at the weather forecast

0:21:41.359 --> 0:21:43.640
<v Speaker 2>and says it's going to rain tomorrow, it's because some

0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:46.600
<v Speaker 2>big computer out there has basically taken the data from

0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:49.840
<v Speaker 2>today and simulated what's going to happen tomorrow exactly.

0:21:49.920 --> 0:21:54.360
<v Speaker 1>And that's really the origin of computer simulations. People wanted

0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:57.200
<v Speaker 1>to predict the weather, to understand what's going to happen

0:21:57.240 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to these cloud patterns. But nobody could really do it

0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:02.720
<v Speaker 1>with pen and papers. Too complicated, too many pieces of information,

0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:05.960
<v Speaker 1>and the equations are really just a mess. So meteorology

0:22:06.000 --> 0:22:08.160
<v Speaker 1>is one of the first places where people decided, let's

0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:10.400
<v Speaker 1>code this up on the computer to try to grapple

0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:12.919
<v Speaker 1>with this complexity and see if we can get anything

0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:15.119
<v Speaker 1>right now, just after World War Two when computers were

0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:18.880
<v Speaker 1>first displaying like computational power, and it was the weather

0:22:18.920 --> 0:22:22.359
<v Speaker 1>forecasters and the nuclear physicists that first really jumped on

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 1>this train.

0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:25.359
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, because I think the way the weather works is

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:30.119
<v Speaker 2>that you have all this data mateiological data, weather data

0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 2>across let's say the United States, that tells you the

0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:36.120
<v Speaker 2>wind speeds and the clouds and the pressures and all that,

0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:38.240
<v Speaker 2>and then you can use it and put it into

0:22:38.880 --> 0:22:41.960
<v Speaker 2>basically your computer, which has a model of what should

0:22:41.960 --> 0:22:45.040
<v Speaker 2>happen next if that's you have all these pressures and

0:22:45.119 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 2>wind patterns exactly.

0:22:47.000 --> 0:22:50.160
<v Speaker 1>And those models are not perfect, they don't describe everything,

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:53.479
<v Speaker 1>and so they're most reliable over short times because that's

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:55.160
<v Speaker 1>when the errors are not going to compound as much,

0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:57.080
<v Speaker 1>which is why I like the prediction for how hot

0:22:57.080 --> 0:22:59.439
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be tomorrow is much more reliable than

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:01.679
<v Speaker 1>the prediction for how hot it's going to be in

0:23:01.840 --> 0:23:05.000
<v Speaker 1>ten years, which you basically have no information about. Or

0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:07.040
<v Speaker 1>if you look at those projections for like where's the

0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 1>hurricane going to be, the potential path of the hurricane

0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:13.480
<v Speaker 1>gets wider as the prediction gets further out because there's

0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:15.919
<v Speaker 1>more uncertainty, like is it going to hit Alabama? We

0:23:16.000 --> 0:23:16.400
<v Speaker 1>don't know.

0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:18.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's pretty cool and actually an interesting fact. I

0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:22.359
<v Speaker 2>would just talk to a hurricane scientist a couple of

0:23:22.400 --> 0:23:25.080
<v Speaker 2>months ago, and he was saying that we're still at

0:23:25.080 --> 0:23:30.920
<v Speaker 2>the point apparently where humans outperform simulations, even supercomputer simulations.

0:23:30.480 --> 0:23:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Humans using pencil and paper, or just humans like with

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:34.200
<v Speaker 1>their intuition.

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:36.800
<v Speaker 2>Humans with their intuition. So like, apparently we're still at

0:23:36.800 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 2>the point where if if you're seeing a hurricane move,

0:23:39.840 --> 0:23:41.879
<v Speaker 2>you run a computer simulation about where it's going to

0:23:41.920 --> 0:23:45.240
<v Speaker 2>go next. A human or like a season experienced hurricane

0:23:45.240 --> 0:23:48.560
<v Speaker 2>watcher will still today better at predicting what the hurricane

0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:50.240
<v Speaker 2>is going to do, just from like what's going on

0:23:50.280 --> 0:23:53.200
<v Speaker 2>inside their brain and the history of what they've seen before.

0:23:53.320 --> 0:23:56.159
<v Speaker 2>But it's getting apparently closer and closer, so maybe in

0:23:56.200 --> 0:24:00.240
<v Speaker 2>the near future computers will make those hurricane watchers. Is

0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:01.040
<v Speaker 2>totally obsleete.

0:24:01.080 --> 0:24:03.600
<v Speaker 1>That's super fascinating and it's fun to think about what's

0:24:03.640 --> 0:24:06.960
<v Speaker 1>going on inside that person's brain. They have built in

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:11.239
<v Speaker 1>their head some neural network with literal biological neurons, right

0:24:11.240 --> 0:24:14.440
<v Speaker 1>and not your typical artificial neural network that models hurricanes,

0:24:14.480 --> 0:24:16.520
<v Speaker 1>and they've trained it on a bunch of real hurricanes.

0:24:16.800 --> 0:24:17.760
<v Speaker 1>So that's pretty cool.

0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:20.639
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it makes you wonder if maybe, like in the future,

0:24:20.640 --> 0:24:23.800
<v Speaker 2>they're going to use AIS to predict the weather, maybe

0:24:23.800 --> 0:24:26.120
<v Speaker 2>you don't need a scientific model of what's going on.

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:29.560
<v Speaker 1>That's a really fascinating question because AIS are already being

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:33.840
<v Speaker 1>used to help boost simulations. One problem with simulations is

0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:37.440
<v Speaker 1>that they can be very expensive computationally. You have lots

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:39.160
<v Speaker 1>and lots of rain jops and you want to model

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:41.760
<v Speaker 1>it very, very accurately. It takes a computer a long

0:24:41.800 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 1>time to calculate every rain job and move it forward

0:24:44.320 --> 0:24:46.840
<v Speaker 1>in time. You want to predict something a few days out,

0:24:47.000 --> 0:24:49.600
<v Speaker 1>it can be very expensive computationally. We run into this

0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:51.640
<v Speaker 1>problem in particle physics all the time because we want

0:24:51.680 --> 0:24:54.439
<v Speaker 1>to simulate billions and billions of potential collisions, and the

0:24:54.480 --> 0:24:57.920
<v Speaker 1>interactions with the detector are very complicated. So to generate

0:24:58.000 --> 0:25:01.840
<v Speaker 1>one simulated collision, for example, like thirty minutes, even on

0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:04.639
<v Speaker 1>a modern computer, we use AI to boost those to

0:25:04.680 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 1>make them faster. Essentially, we train machine learning algorithms to

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:13.479
<v Speaker 1>reproduce what the careful calculations have done. They don't understand it,

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:15.880
<v Speaker 1>they don't like have the same equations built in. It's

0:25:15.880 --> 0:25:18.320
<v Speaker 1>just sort of like those people watching the examples and

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:21.600
<v Speaker 1>getting an intuition. This is like a machine learning intuition.

0:25:22.720 --> 0:25:26.840
<v Speaker 2>So now you're not just similar working in a Meida world.

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:29.280
<v Speaker 2>Now you're in twitting your way through a Meida world.

0:25:29.400 --> 0:25:31.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. And one problem is that we don't always know

0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:34.280
<v Speaker 1>if their predictions are accurate or why they make them.

0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:36.920
<v Speaker 1>You can't ask them like why did this go left

0:25:36.960 --> 0:25:39.560
<v Speaker 1>instead of right? They just have an internal model, the

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 1>same way your hurricane watchers probably can't answer detailed questions

0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:45.359
<v Speaker 1>about why they feel it's going this way. They just

0:25:45.400 --> 0:25:45.840
<v Speaker 1>feel it.

0:25:46.119 --> 0:25:50.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And so it also raises these interesting philosophical questions

0:25:50.040 --> 0:25:52.720
<v Speaker 2>about what science is right, Like is it still science

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:54.600
<v Speaker 2>if you get an AI to predict what's going on.

0:25:54.800 --> 0:25:56.680
<v Speaker 2>Even if you don't understand what the AI did.

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:59.440
<v Speaker 1>It's a deep question that we're struggling with all the time.

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:02.360
<v Speaker 1>But with no controversial is that it gives us extraordinary

0:26:02.400 --> 0:26:05.240
<v Speaker 1>power to do things we just couldn't do otherwise. We

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:07.879
<v Speaker 1>can now run our simulations for much much longer and

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:09.959
<v Speaker 1>in much more depth. You want to know what's going

0:26:10.000 --> 0:26:12.439
<v Speaker 1>to happen when the Milky Way collides with Andromeda or

0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:16.320
<v Speaker 1>the far future of our universe. Simulations give you that power.

0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:18.439
<v Speaker 1>You don't have to sit around and wait for the

0:26:18.560 --> 0:26:21.280
<v Speaker 1>events to play out. We can test it in simulation.

0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:24.439
<v Speaker 2>Right. That's pretty cool. And so what are the different

0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:26.320
<v Speaker 2>types of simulations that scientists use.

0:26:26.680 --> 0:26:29.520
<v Speaker 1>I would say that the simulation is almost everywhere in science.

0:26:29.600 --> 0:26:31.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, it used to be limited to a few

0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:36.080
<v Speaker 1>computationally complex fields, but now everybody sees how useful it is.

0:26:36.600 --> 0:26:39.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, even big companies like you want to design

0:26:39.119 --> 0:26:41.840
<v Speaker 1>a new airplane and you're considering a few different wing shapes.

0:26:42.080 --> 0:26:44.440
<v Speaker 1>It used to be you have to build prototypes of

0:26:44.480 --> 0:26:46.760
<v Speaker 1>those wing shapes and put them in a real huge

0:26:46.880 --> 0:26:50.439
<v Speaker 1>wind tunnel, very time consuming expensive. Now you can just

0:26:50.600 --> 0:26:53.440
<v Speaker 1>simulate the wind tunnel and get an idea for which

0:26:53.480 --> 0:26:55.879
<v Speaker 1>wing shape is going to work. You can explore thousands

0:26:55.880 --> 0:26:59.960
<v Speaker 1>of different shapes simultaneously, so that can be very very powerful.

0:27:00.119 --> 0:27:03.160
<v Speaker 1>So I think simulations are essentially everywhere in science now.

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:05.760
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think they've been using simulations in things like

0:27:05.800 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 2>aerospace for a long time, right, Like even I'm thinking

0:27:08.720 --> 0:27:11.159
<v Speaker 2>in the space program in the fifties and sixties. I mean,

0:27:11.200 --> 0:27:14.560
<v Speaker 2>they didn't use physical computers, but they use people computers

0:27:14.560 --> 0:27:17.560
<v Speaker 2>to sort of simulate what the trajectories of the spacecraft

0:27:17.840 --> 0:27:18.840
<v Speaker 2>were going to be, right.

0:27:18.880 --> 0:27:22.480
<v Speaker 1>They definitely used human brains to do those calculations. Whether

0:27:22.520 --> 0:27:25.399
<v Speaker 1>you consider that a simulation, I think as a tricky point.

0:27:25.680 --> 0:27:28.960
<v Speaker 1>Is that just a theoretical calculation which people have been doing,

0:27:29.000 --> 0:27:32.320
<v Speaker 1>you know since Galileo or Francis Bacon or whatever. Is

0:27:32.359 --> 0:27:33.480
<v Speaker 1>it actually a simulation?

0:27:34.000 --> 0:27:35.879
<v Speaker 2>I don't know that. That's a tough question, all right,

0:27:35.920 --> 0:27:37.520
<v Speaker 2>So then what are some of the other types of

0:27:37.520 --> 0:27:40.639
<v Speaker 2>simulations people do, or what are some other ways that

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:42.080
<v Speaker 2>physicists use simulations.

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:44.960
<v Speaker 1>Another way they use them is to observe things that

0:27:45.000 --> 0:27:48.000
<v Speaker 1>they otherwise couldn't see, Like we want to know what's

0:27:48.040 --> 0:27:50.520
<v Speaker 1>going on inside the sun. Well, we have really no

0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:53.920
<v Speaker 1>prospects for actually seeing what's going on inside the Sun.

0:27:54.400 --> 0:27:56.840
<v Speaker 1>But we can build a simulation of the inside of

0:27:56.880 --> 0:27:59.360
<v Speaker 1>the Sun, and that's going to make predictions for things

0:27:59.359 --> 0:28:01.720
<v Speaker 1>that we can see, things happening on the surface of

0:28:01.760 --> 0:28:04.200
<v Speaker 1>the Sun, or the number of neutrinos coming to Earth,

0:28:04.280 --> 0:28:06.719
<v Speaker 1>and that helps us get an understanding for what's really

0:28:06.760 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 1>happening inside the Sun. And in the simulation, you're not limited, right,

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:12.959
<v Speaker 1>you can ask questions about anything that's happening, like what

0:28:13.040 --> 0:28:14.840
<v Speaker 1>is the temperature or the core of the sun, what

0:28:15.000 --> 0:28:18.320
<v Speaker 1>is the velocity of the plasma. So often simulations always

0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:21.040
<v Speaker 1>checked by real experiments in places where we can observe

0:28:21.080 --> 0:28:24.320
<v Speaker 1>them give us access to things that we can't otherwise observe.

0:28:24.520 --> 0:28:27.200
<v Speaker 2>I think that's a crucial step in this process, right,

0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:29.439
<v Speaker 2>Like you can come up with this imaginary world in

0:28:29.480 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 2>your theater, but it has to match sort of what

0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:34.880
<v Speaker 2>you see at the end with reality, right absolutely.

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 1>Otherwise it's just science fiction, which you know has its

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 1>own value. But there is a special interest in our

0:28:40.760 --> 0:28:43.080
<v Speaker 1>universe and that's led to all sorts of deep understanding.

0:28:43.120 --> 0:28:45.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, the original simulations of the Sun predicted a

0:28:45.480 --> 0:28:48.040
<v Speaker 1>huge number of neutrinos landing on the surface of the Earth,

0:28:48.080 --> 0:28:50.120
<v Speaker 1>and they went out and measured them and the answer

0:28:50.280 --> 0:28:52.600
<v Speaker 1>was wrong, and they thought, did we get the sun wrong?

0:28:52.720 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 1>Or is there something going on with neutrinos? And it

0:28:55.120 --> 0:28:57.200
<v Speaker 1>turned out the simulation of the sun was correct and

0:28:57.280 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 1>neutrinos were doing something wonky between there and.

0:29:00.160 --> 0:29:01.920
<v Speaker 2>Here, right. I think the idea is that, you know,

0:29:01.960 --> 0:29:04.840
<v Speaker 2>if you create a simulation and you tweak the parameters

0:29:04.880 --> 0:29:07.120
<v Speaker 2>of it, right, like the numbers in it, so that

0:29:07.240 --> 0:29:09.920
<v Speaker 2>it matches what you see coming, for example, out of

0:29:09.960 --> 0:29:13.840
<v Speaker 2>the real Sun, then the idea is that maybe what

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:15.880
<v Speaker 2>do you think is going on inside the sun is

0:29:15.920 --> 0:29:17.720
<v Speaker 2>actually what is going on inside the sun?

0:29:17.920 --> 0:29:20.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's exactly right. And somebody else might come up

0:29:20.680 --> 0:29:24.160
<v Speaker 1>with another simulation saying, actually, I think something else is happening.

0:29:24.520 --> 0:29:26.400
<v Speaker 1>And then you can ask, well, what's the difference between

0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:29.280
<v Speaker 1>these two simulations. Do they predict any different things that

0:29:29.320 --> 0:29:32.200
<v Speaker 1>we actually can measure that you can go off and

0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:35.360
<v Speaker 1>use that to distinguish between two various ideas. And we

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 1>talk about this all the time on the podcast. Sometimes

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:40.680
<v Speaker 1>we have like two different possible ideas for what's happening

0:29:40.720 --> 0:29:43.400
<v Speaker 1>in near black holes. Remember we once talked about the

0:29:43.440 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 1>magnetic field near black holes something we could definitely not measure.

0:29:47.120 --> 0:29:49.480
<v Speaker 1>And there were two different models. One was called mad,

0:29:49.600 --> 0:29:52.680
<v Speaker 1>one was called sane, and they made slightly different predictions.

0:29:52.720 --> 0:29:55.360
<v Speaker 1>And then the recent picture of the black hole helped

0:29:55.400 --> 0:29:59.120
<v Speaker 1>us distinguish between these two models, these two simulations for

0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:00.680
<v Speaker 1>black hole magnet fields.

0:30:00.960 --> 0:30:03.120
<v Speaker 2>Right. But I guess that's the tricky thing, is like

0:30:03.400 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 2>just because the simulation matches what you see at the end,

0:30:05.840 --> 0:30:08.560
<v Speaker 2>it may not necessarily be what's going on inside, Right,

0:30:08.600 --> 0:30:11.480
<v Speaker 2>It could just be sort of a coincidence that it matches.

0:30:11.600 --> 0:30:13.520
<v Speaker 1>It certainly could be, And you always have to be

0:30:13.560 --> 0:30:16.880
<v Speaker 1>careful trusting your simulation. You always need ways to validate

0:30:16.920 --> 0:30:18.920
<v Speaker 1>it and to ensure that the bits that are important

0:30:18.920 --> 0:30:20.720
<v Speaker 1>to your science question are accurate.

0:30:20.920 --> 0:30:24.400
<v Speaker 2>Because I guess sometimes that's the only option that we have, right,

0:30:24.520 --> 0:30:27.160
<v Speaker 2>Like you're saying you can't just stick a stick inside

0:30:27.200 --> 0:30:29.959
<v Speaker 2>the science and see what's going on and things like

0:30:30.000 --> 0:30:32.640
<v Speaker 2>maybe black holes or the Big Bang, Like there's no

0:30:32.680 --> 0:30:34.720
<v Speaker 2>way where we can go back in time and do

0:30:34.760 --> 0:30:36.920
<v Speaker 2>an experiment on the Big Bang, Right, So we sort

0:30:36.920 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 2>of have to rely on these simulations to try to

0:30:39.920 --> 0:30:41.040
<v Speaker 2>understand what was going on.

0:30:41.240 --> 0:30:43.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And they've turned out to be extraordinarily powerful tools

0:30:43.880 --> 0:30:45.720
<v Speaker 1>that give us insight into what might have happened in

0:30:45.760 --> 0:30:47.920
<v Speaker 1>the early universe or what's going on in the hearts

0:30:47.920 --> 0:30:50.920
<v Speaker 1>of black holes or neutron stars. I can't really imagine

0:30:50.960 --> 0:30:51.960
<v Speaker 1>doing science without them.

0:30:52.120 --> 0:30:54.360
<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, that's sort of what I guess a

0:30:54.400 --> 0:30:58.640
<v Speaker 2>pretty good answer for why scientists use simulations. And surprise, twist,

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:02.360
<v Speaker 2>this whole conversation was just a simulation of our discussion

0:31:02.400 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 2>of the topic. This is like a sixth sense. I

0:31:04.920 --> 0:31:08.120
<v Speaker 2>only see simulated people. This was not the real podcast, right, Daniel.

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.280
<v Speaker 1>That's right? Yeah, and hopefully this answer is also true

0:31:11.320 --> 0:31:12.240
<v Speaker 1>in the real universe.

0:31:12.360 --> 0:31:15.720
<v Speaker 2>But Daniel, you got to interview a scientist who does

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:19.680
<v Speaker 2>physics and actually also wrote a book about simulating things

0:31:19.720 --> 0:31:20.440
<v Speaker 2>in the universe.

0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 1>That's right. I had a fun chat with Professor Andrew Pnsen.

0:31:24.080 --> 0:31:27.520
<v Speaker 1>He's a cosmologist and a professor at University of College London,

0:31:27.560 --> 0:31:30.160
<v Speaker 1>and he wrote a new fun book called Universe in

0:31:30.200 --> 0:31:34.200
<v Speaker 1>a Box, which explores the role of simulation in cosmology

0:31:34.280 --> 0:31:36.959
<v Speaker 1>and in science in general. And he does have an

0:31:36.960 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>answer for the question is our universe a simulation?

0:31:40.120 --> 0:31:42.200
<v Speaker 2>Now? If I order Universe in a Box, do I

0:31:42.240 --> 0:31:43.440
<v Speaker 2>get a universe in a box.

0:31:45.680 --> 0:31:47.320
<v Speaker 1>Maybe you get a recipe for how to put a

0:31:47.400 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 1>universe into a box.

0:31:48.840 --> 0:31:51.800
<v Speaker 2>That's a that's not the universe in a box? And

0:31:51.880 --> 0:31:55.000
<v Speaker 2>also why a box? Why not? I don't know, as

0:31:55.000 --> 0:31:55.960
<v Speaker 2>spherical container.

0:31:56.040 --> 0:31:57.840
<v Speaker 1>I thought you were going to ask, if the universe

0:31:57.880 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 1>is in a box, what universe is the box in?

0:32:00.760 --> 0:32:03.120
<v Speaker 2>Hmmm, No, I wasn't going to ask that.

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:07.840
<v Speaker 1>Dang it will my simulated Jorge wind Riven.

0:32:07.760 --> 0:32:10.360
<v Speaker 2>It's in the multiverse. I don't know. Aren't they like

0:32:10.480 --> 0:32:13.640
<v Speaker 2>meta universes outside of our universe? Isn't that the idea?

0:32:13.800 --> 0:32:16.479
<v Speaker 1>Click on the multiverse box option on Amazon Shipping.

0:32:16.560 --> 0:32:19.200
<v Speaker 2>The question then is can you have a multiverse in

0:32:19.240 --> 0:32:22.680
<v Speaker 2>a box? Anyways, you had a great conversation with Andrew.

0:32:22.840 --> 0:32:23.560
<v Speaker 1>I certainly did.

0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 2>What motivated him to write this book.

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:27.600
<v Speaker 1>You felt like the role of simulation in science was

0:32:27.760 --> 0:32:31.280
<v Speaker 1>super important and yet hadn't really been explored by any

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:33.479
<v Speaker 1>pop side book, and so he wanted to share his

0:32:33.600 --> 0:32:36.040
<v Speaker 1>love for simulations with everybody.

0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:39.240
<v Speaker 2>Cool. Well, here is Daniel's interview with Professor Andrew Ponson

0:32:39.440 --> 0:32:42.120
<v Speaker 2>about his new book, Universe in a Box.

0:32:44.480 --> 0:32:47.480
<v Speaker 1>So then it's my pleasure to welcome to the program.

0:32:47.520 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 1>Andrew Ponson, a cosmologist and professor at University College London,

0:32:52.680 --> 0:32:54.560
<v Speaker 1>and youw thank you very much for joining us today.

0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:55.400
<v Speaker 3>Oh, thank you.

0:32:55.880 --> 0:32:59.040
<v Speaker 1>So your book is called Universe in a Box. It's

0:32:59.040 --> 0:33:02.360
<v Speaker 1>a fascinating and telling history and sort of definition of

0:33:02.400 --> 0:33:05.640
<v Speaker 1>what is a simulation and why it's important in science.

0:33:06.000 --> 0:33:09.560
<v Speaker 1>So let's start off with very very basics. What is

0:33:09.680 --> 0:33:11.600
<v Speaker 1>a simulation in your point of view?

0:33:11.720 --> 0:33:13.680
<v Speaker 6>There are different definitions you can give, but I think

0:33:13.720 --> 0:33:16.480
<v Speaker 6>a good place to start is by thinking it's trying

0:33:16.520 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 6>to capture some element of the real world inside a computer,

0:33:21.880 --> 0:33:24.640
<v Speaker 6>and that can take many different forms. It doesn't even

0:33:24.720 --> 0:33:27.480
<v Speaker 6>have to be a physics right, it's we can have

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:31.680
<v Speaker 6>simulations of something like human behavior. There are simulations of

0:33:31.720 --> 0:33:34.840
<v Speaker 6>the way that crowds might behave that architects use to

0:33:35.120 --> 0:33:38.360
<v Speaker 6>make safer buildings by making the passageways the right kind

0:33:38.400 --> 0:33:41.400
<v Speaker 6>of size and shape that if there's an emergency situation,

0:33:41.640 --> 0:33:45.360
<v Speaker 6>then humans will evacuate the building in the most efficient,

0:33:45.440 --> 0:33:48.520
<v Speaker 6>safe way. But I think what that already teaches you

0:33:48.680 --> 0:33:51.000
<v Speaker 6>is that it's possible to do a simulation of something

0:33:51.560 --> 0:33:56.160
<v Speaker 6>without necessarily understanding everything about that thing before you start.

0:33:56.840 --> 0:34:00.240
<v Speaker 6>Because if you think of crowds, they're made out of people.

0:34:00.720 --> 0:34:04.920
<v Speaker 6>We can't actually predict everything about how an individual human's

0:34:04.960 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 6>going to react in any given scenario, And yet we

0:34:08.760 --> 0:34:12.040
<v Speaker 6>can make simulations that are useful. They might not be perfect,

0:34:12.080 --> 0:34:15.200
<v Speaker 6>but they're useful for giving us some insight into the

0:34:15.200 --> 0:34:18.319
<v Speaker 6>way that crowds might behave. So when you take that

0:34:18.360 --> 0:34:22.919
<v Speaker 6>across to the physics environment, and in particular my area cosmology,

0:34:23.560 --> 0:34:28.040
<v Speaker 6>it's about trying to capture something about how the universe behaves.

0:34:28.480 --> 0:34:30.680
<v Speaker 6>But we know from the outset we're never going to

0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:31.480
<v Speaker 6>get that perfect.

0:34:31.719 --> 0:34:34.799
<v Speaker 1>So then where is the value in a simulation if

0:34:34.840 --> 0:34:37.920
<v Speaker 1>you have to, like encode in already what's going to

0:34:37.960 --> 0:34:40.960
<v Speaker 1>happen when people bump into each other, or the purchasing

0:34:41.040 --> 0:34:44.400
<v Speaker 1>choices of people, or how galaxies interact. If you have

0:34:44.440 --> 0:34:47.000
<v Speaker 1>to already build in the physics, what are you learning

0:34:47.040 --> 0:34:49.759
<v Speaker 1>from the simulation? How do you get any information out

0:34:49.800 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 1>of it?

0:34:50.800 --> 0:34:53.879
<v Speaker 6>Well, the point is that you code in some things

0:34:53.920 --> 0:34:57.799
<v Speaker 6>about how the individual bits within your simulation behave. I

0:34:57.800 --> 0:34:59.520
<v Speaker 6>guess you know, in the case of the crowd that

0:34:59.560 --> 0:35:03.080
<v Speaker 6>would be how an individual human might behave under a

0:35:03.160 --> 0:35:06.440
<v Speaker 6>variety of circumstances. But in the case of physics, it

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:10.239
<v Speaker 6>might be how we think dark matter particles flow through

0:35:10.239 --> 0:35:13.120
<v Speaker 6>the universe and interact with each other through gravity, and

0:35:13.160 --> 0:35:16.760
<v Speaker 6>what the simulation does is take a very large number

0:35:17.160 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 6>of those elements and kind of have them all individually

0:35:21.160 --> 0:35:25.359
<v Speaker 6>doing their thing. But the behavior that then emerges can

0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:29.280
<v Speaker 6>be very hard to anticipate in advance. And that's the point.

0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:33.120
<v Speaker 6>Understanding how a crowd behaves is not at all the

0:35:33.160 --> 0:35:36.279
<v Speaker 6>same thing as understanding how a human behaves, and in

0:35:36.320 --> 0:35:40.319
<v Speaker 6>the same way, understanding how dark matter behaves through our

0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:43.640
<v Speaker 6>whole cosmos is not at all the same thing as

0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:47.640
<v Speaker 6>understanding what an individual particle of dark matter might do.

0:35:47.920 --> 0:35:51.480
<v Speaker 1>This principle of emergent phenomena is something I'm super fascinated by.

0:35:51.920 --> 0:35:54.400
<v Speaker 1>It's incredible to me that sometimes we have laws of

0:35:54.400 --> 0:35:58.720
<v Speaker 1>physics at one scale, which you know, causally determine different

0:35:58.760 --> 0:36:01.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of laws of physics at another scale, which we

0:36:01.920 --> 0:36:04.120
<v Speaker 1>can't always easily predict. But as you say, we can

0:36:04.280 --> 0:36:07.600
<v Speaker 1>observe in action if we can, you know, construct the

0:36:07.680 --> 0:36:10.879
<v Speaker 1>right setup to you is simulation. Is it a kind

0:36:10.880 --> 0:36:13.560
<v Speaker 1>of experiment, Is it a kind of theory, or is

0:36:13.560 --> 0:36:15.720
<v Speaker 1>it sort of a new branch of science.

0:36:16.080 --> 0:36:17.839
<v Speaker 6>I think it's a new branch, but I think it's

0:36:17.880 --> 0:36:20.799
<v Speaker 6>got something in common with theory and with experiments, and

0:36:20.840 --> 0:36:23.799
<v Speaker 6>I guess I tilt mainly towards thinking of it as

0:36:23.840 --> 0:36:28.239
<v Speaker 6>an experiment. Now that's a little bit controversial. Sometimes people say, well,

0:36:28.280 --> 0:36:31.200
<v Speaker 6>it can't be an experiment. You've told the computer what

0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:34.680
<v Speaker 6>to do, Whereas in an experiment, you're supposed to go

0:36:34.719 --> 0:36:37.600
<v Speaker 6>and ask nature. You know, you're supposed to put things

0:36:37.640 --> 0:36:39.960
<v Speaker 6>to the test and confront them with the reality of

0:36:40.000 --> 0:36:41.200
<v Speaker 6>how things really work.

0:36:41.960 --> 0:36:43.759
<v Speaker 3>But you know, I'm not.

0:36:43.680 --> 0:36:46.560
<v Speaker 6>Sure that that distinction is always so clear. So an

0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:49.520
<v Speaker 6>example that I give in the book is, let's say

0:36:49.560 --> 0:36:53.680
<v Speaker 6>you're just trying to build an aircraft and you have

0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:55.919
<v Speaker 6>some idea about how you want to shape the wing,

0:36:56.400 --> 0:36:58.399
<v Speaker 6>but you don't know exactly how that wing is going

0:36:58.400 --> 0:37:01.839
<v Speaker 6>to perform. Now you now have a choice. You could

0:37:01.880 --> 0:37:05.200
<v Speaker 6>build a scale model of your wing and put it

0:37:05.239 --> 0:37:08.680
<v Speaker 6>inside a wind tunnel and see how it performs inside

0:37:08.680 --> 0:37:11.200
<v Speaker 6>a wind tunnel, and that's kind of an experiment. Or

0:37:11.640 --> 0:37:14.920
<v Speaker 6>you could make a digital version of your wing and

0:37:15.040 --> 0:37:19.000
<v Speaker 6>put it inside an airflow inside a computer that's a

0:37:19.080 --> 0:37:21.879
<v Speaker 6>kind of simulated airflow, and see how it behaves there.

0:37:22.560 --> 0:37:25.080
<v Speaker 6>And both of those are going to have limitations. There's

0:37:25.120 --> 0:37:27.920
<v Speaker 6>definitely limitations on what you can achieve inside the computer,

0:37:28.040 --> 0:37:31.440
<v Speaker 6>but there's also limitations in what you can achieve in

0:37:31.640 --> 0:37:35.360
<v Speaker 6>a wind tunnel. You can't make an infinitely big wind tunnel.

0:37:35.400 --> 0:37:37.560
<v Speaker 6>It's going to have edges, things are going to be

0:37:37.680 --> 0:37:41.799
<v Speaker 6>the wrong scale. So when you do experiments, you are

0:37:42.120 --> 0:37:46.000
<v Speaker 6>making some set of assumptions about the real world and

0:37:46.120 --> 0:37:49.400
<v Speaker 6>how what you're doing applies to the real world. And

0:37:49.480 --> 0:37:51.799
<v Speaker 6>I think that's just that's true in simulations as well.

0:37:51.920 --> 0:37:54.319
<v Speaker 6>So overall, this is why I start to think more

0:37:54.360 --> 0:37:57.440
<v Speaker 6>and more of simulations as types of experiment.

0:37:57.640 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 1>I have an argument with my brother who's a computer scientist,

0:38:00.920 --> 0:38:04.160
<v Speaker 1>and he runs what he calls experiments on his machine

0:38:04.239 --> 0:38:07.560
<v Speaker 1>learning models. I'm like, that's not an experiment. You're just

0:38:07.640 --> 0:38:10.680
<v Speaker 1>doing it in your computer. But you're absolutely right that

0:38:10.800 --> 0:38:12.560
<v Speaker 1>if you don't know the outcome and you're learning something,

0:38:12.600 --> 0:38:15.280
<v Speaker 1>it can be considered also an experiment. But you mentioned

0:38:15.280 --> 0:38:17.040
<v Speaker 1>something which I wanted to ask you about anyway, which

0:38:17.080 --> 0:38:21.239
<v Speaker 1>is the limitation of simulation. You're concocting sort of an

0:38:21.360 --> 0:38:25.319
<v Speaker 1>artificial universe, and you're learning something about that universe. If

0:38:25.320 --> 0:38:28.440
<v Speaker 1>that universe doesn't follow the same rules as ours, then

0:38:28.480 --> 0:38:31.880
<v Speaker 1>obviously we're not learning something about reality, which usually is

0:38:31.960 --> 0:38:34.799
<v Speaker 1>the goal. Can you say something about how we know

0:38:35.160 --> 0:38:39.760
<v Speaker 1>when to trust our simulations with the fundamental limitations of simulation.

0:38:39.400 --> 0:38:42.720
<v Speaker 6>Are yeah, I mean that is the hardest, most difficult question.

0:38:42.800 --> 0:38:45.799
<v Speaker 6>At the heart of doing good simulation is knowing what

0:38:45.880 --> 0:38:48.879
<v Speaker 6>to trust and what not to trust, and often it's hard,

0:38:49.080 --> 0:38:52.400
<v Speaker 6>you know, it can be really hard to know. I mean, fundamentally,

0:38:52.440 --> 0:38:57.319
<v Speaker 6>the limitation is just computational power that even if you're

0:38:57.320 --> 0:38:59.680
<v Speaker 6>doing something like a weather forecast, which I talk about

0:38:59.719 --> 0:39:03.040
<v Speaker 6>a bit in the book, you know, just the atmosphere

0:39:03.080 --> 0:39:06.360
<v Speaker 6>of the Earth has so many molecules in it that

0:39:06.440 --> 0:39:09.319
<v Speaker 6>you're never going to track each individual molecule, right, So

0:39:09.360 --> 0:39:12.160
<v Speaker 6>you're going to have to make some kind of approximation.

0:39:12.200 --> 0:39:14.920
<v Speaker 6>You're going to parcel up the air into almost like

0:39:15.000 --> 0:39:18.680
<v Speaker 6>big hypothetical bags of air that move around through our

0:39:18.719 --> 0:39:23.399
<v Speaker 6>atmosphere and use some laws to describe that. But then

0:39:23.440 --> 0:39:25.759
<v Speaker 6>you're going to have to go and say, well, you know,

0:39:25.800 --> 0:39:28.319
<v Speaker 6>we're not getting all the small scale details right, We're

0:39:28.320 --> 0:39:31.080
<v Speaker 6>going to have to put in some corrections. In the

0:39:31.120 --> 0:39:35.480
<v Speaker 6>case of meteorology, even clouds can be quite hard to

0:39:35.520 --> 0:39:38.200
<v Speaker 6>predict because you're just not getting all of those tiny

0:39:38.280 --> 0:39:41.960
<v Speaker 6>details that contribute to the way that a cloud forms

0:39:42.000 --> 0:39:44.720
<v Speaker 6>in reality. So you need to go in and put

0:39:44.920 --> 0:39:48.000
<v Speaker 6>into your simulation some kind of correction almost by hand.

0:39:48.600 --> 0:39:52.800
<v Speaker 6>You say, under these circumstances, clouds must start to form.

0:39:53.040 --> 0:39:56.520
<v Speaker 6>And you know, if you're a weather forecaster, you see

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:59.960
<v Speaker 6>how well did I do by making that assumption about

0:40:00.120 --> 0:40:03.359
<v Speaker 6>how clouds form? And over time you sort of incrementally

0:40:03.400 --> 0:40:07.800
<v Speaker 6>improve by comparing how your simulation did with the reality

0:40:07.800 --> 0:40:10.840
<v Speaker 6>of how the weather unfolded. So we can do something

0:40:11.000 --> 0:40:13.560
<v Speaker 6>a bit similar in cosmology. It's not quite the same

0:40:13.600 --> 0:40:16.080
<v Speaker 6>because we don't get to kind of do the repeat

0:40:16.160 --> 0:40:18.320
<v Speaker 6>experiments in quite the same way as you do in

0:40:18.640 --> 0:40:21.680
<v Speaker 6>weather forecasting, for example. In some level, it's the same

0:40:21.760 --> 0:40:25.120
<v Speaker 6>kind of iterative process that we're getting better over time.

0:40:25.200 --> 0:40:28.040
<v Speaker 6>We're understanding the way that we have to put in

0:40:28.120 --> 0:40:32.440
<v Speaker 6>corrections to our simulations to account for things like the

0:40:32.480 --> 0:40:35.880
<v Speaker 6>way that stars evolve and change over time and dump

0:40:36.000 --> 0:40:39.000
<v Speaker 6>energy into the universe, and what black holes are up to,

0:40:39.080 --> 0:40:41.719
<v Speaker 6>and all of these things that we actually have to

0:40:41.960 --> 0:40:43.799
<v Speaker 6>help the computer along the way, if you like.

0:40:44.000 --> 0:40:47.080
<v Speaker 1>So why is it that we need to make these corrections?

0:40:47.160 --> 0:40:50.960
<v Speaker 1>We have these limitations is it purely just computational power.

0:40:51.320 --> 0:40:55.200
<v Speaker 1>In the limit of infinite computing power, could we predict

0:40:55.239 --> 0:40:58.560
<v Speaker 1>the weather tomorrow starting from particle physics and modeling every

0:40:58.560 --> 0:41:01.200
<v Speaker 1>single quirk in the atmosphe sphere, or is there a

0:41:01.239 --> 0:41:04.600
<v Speaker 1>conceptual limit there some obstacle that we can't overcome even

0:41:04.640 --> 0:41:05.560
<v Speaker 1>with infinite computing.

0:41:06.120 --> 0:41:07.600
<v Speaker 3>I think both are a problem.

0:41:07.760 --> 0:41:10.040
<v Speaker 6>So, first of all, we are very far from having

0:41:10.120 --> 0:41:13.400
<v Speaker 6>infinite computer power, a very very long way away from that.

0:41:13.520 --> 0:41:16.200
<v Speaker 6>But secondly, you're right, I mean there are more fundamental

0:41:16.200 --> 0:41:20.320
<v Speaker 6>limitations as well. In particular, we do not know exactly

0:41:20.360 --> 0:41:23.279
<v Speaker 6>where every molecule is in the atmosphere to start with.

0:41:24.120 --> 0:41:27.640
<v Speaker 6>So even if you had a computer powerful enough to

0:41:27.760 --> 0:41:31.160
<v Speaker 6>track at the molecular level what our atmosphere is doing,

0:41:31.400 --> 0:41:34.840
<v Speaker 6>you wouldn't know how to start the simulation. You wouldn't

0:41:34.880 --> 0:41:37.960
<v Speaker 6>have enough data to tell it what the atmosphere looks

0:41:38.000 --> 0:41:41.719
<v Speaker 6>like today. So there's an inaccuracy that's sort of just

0:41:41.800 --> 0:41:45.240
<v Speaker 6>coming from not having that perfect data, and an effect

0:41:45.560 --> 0:41:50.920
<v Speaker 6>known as chaos means that imperfect initial data very quickly

0:41:50.960 --> 0:41:55.200
<v Speaker 6>turns into big errors. So there's a kind of famous

0:41:55.320 --> 0:41:58.319
<v Speaker 6>example of this. It was Edward Lorenz who sort of

0:41:58.520 --> 0:42:03.000
<v Speaker 6>gave the thought experiment of butterfly flapping its wings somewhere

0:42:03.040 --> 0:42:06.040
<v Speaker 6>in Europe, say, and it has a sort of series

0:42:06.120 --> 0:42:09.400
<v Speaker 6>of knock on effects that over time just amplify and amplify,

0:42:09.440 --> 0:42:13.520
<v Speaker 6>and eventually the tiny little gust from the butterfly's wings

0:42:14.080 --> 0:42:19.000
<v Speaker 6>actually stimulates the formation of a hurricane. And you know,

0:42:19.080 --> 0:42:21.640
<v Speaker 6>these kind of effects, we know they're there, and physics

0:42:21.880 --> 0:42:25.359
<v Speaker 6>we call them chaos. And so you know, the slightest

0:42:26.120 --> 0:42:31.080
<v Speaker 6>inaccuracy in how you set things up will eventually make

0:42:31.120 --> 0:42:33.759
<v Speaker 6>the simulation depart from reality.

0:42:34.040 --> 0:42:35.919
<v Speaker 3>So we know that's true in cosmology as well.

0:42:36.440 --> 0:42:40.400
<v Speaker 6>And we don't have, you know, perfect information about the

0:42:40.400 --> 0:42:43.440
<v Speaker 6>early universe. We have quite good ideas for what was

0:42:43.480 --> 0:42:48.200
<v Speaker 6>going on there, but it's imperfect, and that means because

0:42:48.239 --> 0:42:51.359
<v Speaker 6>of chaos and the way that those imperfections are amplified

0:42:51.400 --> 0:42:55.239
<v Speaker 6>over time, what we end up with is, in some sense,

0:42:55.280 --> 0:42:57.480
<v Speaker 6>it's like a statistical.

0:42:56.960 --> 0:42:59.080
<v Speaker 3>Recreation of the universe.

0:42:59.120 --> 0:43:03.399
<v Speaker 6>It's telling us to hisstically what sorts of things should

0:43:03.440 --> 0:43:05.680
<v Speaker 6>be in the universe and what sorts of mixtures and

0:43:05.719 --> 0:43:09.920
<v Speaker 6>what kind of patterns, rather than literally recreating the universe.

0:43:10.000 --> 0:43:14.120
<v Speaker 6>So it's almost more like sort of climates, like a

0:43:14.200 --> 0:43:17.759
<v Speaker 6>climate simulation almost rather than a weather simulation.

0:43:18.280 --> 0:43:20.839
<v Speaker 1>I'm very interested in the history of simulations as well.

0:43:20.880 --> 0:43:24.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, theoretical science is like thousands of years old.

0:43:24.239 --> 0:43:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Experimental science people argue about might be hundreds of years old.

0:43:27.480 --> 0:43:30.879
<v Speaker 1>Simulation based science seems like decades old. Can you take

0:43:30.960 --> 0:43:33.360
<v Speaker 1>us back to the root of it? Where does it begin? Really?

0:43:33.480 --> 0:43:33.640
<v Speaker 4>Well?

0:43:33.680 --> 0:43:35.920
<v Speaker 6>I think you know, the very earliest route you can

0:43:35.960 --> 0:43:39.320
<v Speaker 6>find is in the nineteenth century, where Charles Babbage and

0:43:39.360 --> 0:43:42.520
<v Speaker 6>Ada Lovelace were working on the idea of a computer

0:43:43.000 --> 0:43:45.960
<v Speaker 6>very similar to our modern computers. It was the first

0:43:46.000 --> 0:43:49.080
<v Speaker 6>time really anybody expressed the idea of having a machine

0:43:49.760 --> 0:43:54.800
<v Speaker 6>that could be told to perform any calculation. So before

0:43:54.880 --> 0:43:58.200
<v Speaker 6>that there were machines that did specific calculations, but this

0:43:58.360 --> 0:44:01.359
<v Speaker 6>was the first time somebody envisage a machine where you

0:44:01.360 --> 0:44:03.719
<v Speaker 6>could just give it instructions and it would carry out

0:44:04.120 --> 0:44:09.080
<v Speaker 6>calculations to your specifications. And Ada Lovelace actually wrote at

0:44:09.080 --> 0:44:12.080
<v Speaker 6>that time that one of the applications of being able

0:44:12.120 --> 0:44:15.359
<v Speaker 6>to do that was to be able to take what

0:44:15.400 --> 0:44:19.600
<v Speaker 6>we think are the governing laws of our physics and

0:44:19.680 --> 0:44:22.600
<v Speaker 6>make them kind of practical, you know, get the computer

0:44:23.280 --> 0:44:27.080
<v Speaker 6>to do all of the calculations that turns those abstract

0:44:27.120 --> 0:44:32.919
<v Speaker 6>equations into concrete, specific predictions for different scenarios.

0:44:33.160 --> 0:44:34.960
<v Speaker 3>So that's probably the first.

0:44:34.800 --> 0:44:40.040
<v Speaker 6>Time anyone expressed what we would recognize as a modern simulation. Then,

0:44:40.080 --> 0:44:44.839
<v Speaker 6>in terms of actually performing simulations, remarkably, some people tried

0:44:44.880 --> 0:44:48.600
<v Speaker 6>to do this in the twentieth century before digital computers

0:44:49.320 --> 0:44:54.680
<v Speaker 6>were actually made. So there are some beautiful stories like

0:44:56.040 --> 0:44:59.520
<v Speaker 6>a crazy character called Lewis Fry Richardson who was actually

0:45:00.080 --> 0:45:03.120
<v Speaker 6>on the front line of World War One trying to

0:45:03.719 --> 0:45:09.600
<v Speaker 6>calculate weather forecasts using pen and paper, very very repetitive

0:45:09.640 --> 0:45:12.680
<v Speaker 6>calculations he was doing that would be exactly what a

0:45:12.680 --> 0:45:15.960
<v Speaker 6>computer does today to do a weather forecast, but he

0:45:16.080 --> 0:45:19.319
<v Speaker 6>was doing it just with pen and paper and taking him,

0:45:19.320 --> 0:45:22.680
<v Speaker 6>you know, weeks stretching out into years just to do

0:45:22.760 --> 0:45:25.160
<v Speaker 6>one forecast. He wasn't trying to be practical about it.

0:45:25.160 --> 0:45:27.319
<v Speaker 6>He was just trying to prove a point that this

0:45:27.480 --> 0:45:31.680
<v Speaker 6>is actually doable in practice. And then you know, by

0:45:31.680 --> 0:45:35.680
<v Speaker 6>the end of World War Two there were actual computers available,

0:45:35.760 --> 0:45:39.280
<v Speaker 6>and very quickly from there the whole business of simulating

0:45:39.400 --> 0:45:42.760
<v Speaker 6>all sorts of different things, but ultimately the entire universe

0:45:43.080 --> 0:45:44.640
<v Speaker 6>kind of grew up quite quickly from there.

0:45:57.680 --> 0:46:00.200
<v Speaker 1>Tell us more about the role of simulation in or

0:46:00.280 --> 0:46:03.280
<v Speaker 1>personal research. Is this something you explore because you're fascinated

0:46:03.320 --> 0:46:05.400
<v Speaker 1>by the computer science of it, or to use it

0:46:05.480 --> 0:46:07.840
<v Speaker 1>just a tool that helps answer your physics questions.

0:46:08.280 --> 0:46:10.319
<v Speaker 6>I think it depends on the day you ask me.

0:46:10.400 --> 0:46:14.520
<v Speaker 6>I mean, some days I really enjoy the computer science

0:46:14.560 --> 0:46:17.440
<v Speaker 6>of all this, and you know, it's undeniably cool to

0:46:17.560 --> 0:46:20.840
<v Speaker 6>get to work with some of the world's biggest supercomputers

0:46:21.400 --> 0:46:24.319
<v Speaker 6>and be able to instruct them to carry out these

0:46:24.440 --> 0:46:28.400
<v Speaker 6>kind of simulations, and the results are enormous fun to

0:46:28.480 --> 0:46:30.400
<v Speaker 6>work with as well. So there is a bit of

0:46:30.800 --> 0:46:33.040
<v Speaker 6>there's a bit of that kind of nerdery in it.

0:46:33.080 --> 0:46:36.279
<v Speaker 6>But I think ultimately the thing that really keeps me

0:46:36.360 --> 0:46:40.440
<v Speaker 6>hooked is the idea that we are contributing to a

0:46:40.480 --> 0:46:44.760
<v Speaker 6>bigger picture of how our universe evolved, of the role

0:46:44.960 --> 0:46:49.000
<v Speaker 6>for materials in it that we as yet don't understand.

0:46:49.560 --> 0:46:51.440
<v Speaker 3>Things like dark matter and dark.

0:46:51.320 --> 0:46:54.400
<v Speaker 6>Energy that we know they're out there, they seem to

0:46:54.400 --> 0:46:57.160
<v Speaker 6>be having a profound effect on our universe, but we

0:46:57.239 --> 0:46:59.759
<v Speaker 6>really don't know what they are, and we're trying to

0:46:59.840 --> 0:47:03.279
<v Speaker 6>learn more about that. And then I suppose ultimately what

0:47:03.360 --> 0:47:06.120
<v Speaker 6>we're building towards is a better understanding of where we

0:47:06.239 --> 0:47:10.080
<v Speaker 6>came from. You know, the existence of us carbon based

0:47:10.160 --> 0:47:14.000
<v Speaker 6>life forms on this rocky planet is part of the

0:47:14.080 --> 0:47:17.680
<v Speaker 6>story that we're telling. Because the chemical elements from which

0:47:17.760 --> 0:47:21.719
<v Speaker 6>our planet and life are constructed weren't there in the

0:47:21.719 --> 0:47:25.399
<v Speaker 6>Big Bang. They've been manufactured over time. They need very

0:47:25.440 --> 0:47:30.239
<v Speaker 6>specific conditions to be manufactured and then concentrated enough to

0:47:30.920 --> 0:47:34.600
<v Speaker 6>start forming planets and enabling life and so on. So

0:47:34.800 --> 0:47:37.000
<v Speaker 6>I think, you know, ultimately that's the thing I'm most

0:47:37.000 --> 0:47:41.279
<v Speaker 6>excited by that we are telling this bigger story that

0:47:41.360 --> 0:47:43.840
<v Speaker 6>in the end speaks to a kind of deep question

0:47:43.960 --> 0:47:46.080
<v Speaker 6>within all of us about where did we come from?

0:47:46.120 --> 0:47:50.120
<v Speaker 1>Have you seen yet machine learning being used to amplify

0:47:50.400 --> 0:47:54.720
<v Speaker 1>or speed up, or just overall enhance simulations in your research.

0:47:55.480 --> 0:47:58.400
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean machine learning is more and more important

0:47:58.680 --> 0:48:02.080
<v Speaker 6>throughout astrophysics. So it's being used in a variety of

0:48:02.120 --> 0:48:06.359
<v Speaker 6>different ways. One is to try and improve on some

0:48:06.440 --> 0:48:08.760
<v Speaker 6>of these things that we were talking about a moment

0:48:08.800 --> 0:48:12.399
<v Speaker 6>ago about you know, what do you do about the

0:48:12.400 --> 0:48:16.239
<v Speaker 6>things that you can't quite get right, Like the way

0:48:16.280 --> 0:48:19.759
<v Speaker 6>that stars form out of gas just such a complicated

0:48:20.440 --> 0:48:23.759
<v Speaker 6>process that we can't capture it perfectly the way that

0:48:23.760 --> 0:48:27.040
<v Speaker 6>those stars then put energy back into the galaxy that

0:48:27.080 --> 0:48:30.160
<v Speaker 6>they're forming within the roles of black holes, all of

0:48:30.200 --> 0:48:34.600
<v Speaker 6>these things that are very complicated and multifaceted.

0:48:35.239 --> 0:48:37.520
<v Speaker 3>We can use machine learning.

0:48:37.600 --> 0:48:40.760
<v Speaker 6>To do some of the hard work for us to

0:48:40.880 --> 0:48:46.440
<v Speaker 6>learn from examples of individual simulated stars, say about how

0:48:46.480 --> 0:48:49.359
<v Speaker 6>they behave, and kind of learn the lessons from those

0:48:49.400 --> 0:48:51.920
<v Speaker 6>and then take them and put them in the bigger

0:48:51.960 --> 0:48:55.120
<v Speaker 6>setting of trying to simulate then hundreds of billions of

0:48:55.160 --> 0:48:58.040
<v Speaker 6>stars across a galaxy or maybe you know, even out

0:48:58.080 --> 0:49:02.160
<v Speaker 6>into the universe. Sochine learning can kind of help us

0:49:02.400 --> 0:49:06.399
<v Speaker 6>take lessons from one bit of our simulations or one

0:49:06.440 --> 0:49:10.160
<v Speaker 6>bit of physics and insert them in an efficient way

0:49:10.280 --> 0:49:15.000
<v Speaker 6>into other simulations. That's one role for them, But they're

0:49:15.000 --> 0:49:18.400
<v Speaker 6>also crucial in interpreting the data we get from the

0:49:18.440 --> 0:49:24.120
<v Speaker 6>real universe. So the data that is coming from telescopes

0:49:24.360 --> 0:49:28.640
<v Speaker 6>and especially big new survey telescopes, things like EUCLID and

0:49:29.040 --> 0:49:33.560
<v Speaker 6>the Verra Rubin Observatory, these giant efforts to scan the

0:49:33.600 --> 0:49:37.840
<v Speaker 6>sky and build maps of our universe. They need machine

0:49:37.880 --> 0:49:41.520
<v Speaker 6>learning because the machine learning can kind of do a

0:49:41.560 --> 0:49:46.719
<v Speaker 6>lot of the initial data processing figuring out what's interesting,

0:49:46.880 --> 0:49:50.319
<v Speaker 6>what we're actually looking at, where it is in three

0:49:50.440 --> 0:49:54.320
<v Speaker 6>D space, and what needs to be flagged for further

0:49:54.400 --> 0:49:57.320
<v Speaker 6>human follow up. All of these things, machine learning is

0:49:57.360 --> 0:49:59.640
<v Speaker 6>playing an increasingly important role.

0:50:00.040 --> 0:50:01.960
<v Speaker 1>And in your view, what does a future hold for

0:50:02.160 --> 0:50:05.439
<v Speaker 1>simulation based science? Are there fields of science that don't

0:50:05.520 --> 0:50:08.200
<v Speaker 1>yet use any simulation and are on the cusp of

0:50:08.200 --> 0:50:10.319
<v Speaker 1>being revolutionized by this powerful new tool.

0:50:10.600 --> 0:50:13.320
<v Speaker 6>I mean, I'm not aware of fields that have shied

0:50:13.360 --> 0:50:16.719
<v Speaker 6>away from simulation. I think it is such a powerful

0:50:16.760 --> 0:50:19.000
<v Speaker 6>tool that when you start looking for it, you do

0:50:19.080 --> 0:50:22.920
<v Speaker 6>find it in use absolutely everywhere. But I think what

0:50:22.960 --> 0:50:25.400
<v Speaker 6>we can say about simulation is that we're still a

0:50:25.480 --> 0:50:30.080
<v Speaker 6>very early stage of understanding how to use simulation and

0:50:30.239 --> 0:50:35.000
<v Speaker 6>what roles it can play within the overall scientific progress. So,

0:50:35.280 --> 0:50:37.120
<v Speaker 6>you know, it goes all the way back to what

0:50:37.200 --> 0:50:39.759
<v Speaker 6>really is a simulation? Is it an experiment or is

0:50:39.800 --> 0:50:43.759
<v Speaker 6>it a calculation? How should we think about it? And

0:50:43.840 --> 0:50:46.600
<v Speaker 6>tied up with that is this question of how can

0:50:46.640 --> 0:50:49.640
<v Speaker 6>we improve our simulations? How do we get past that

0:50:49.800 --> 0:50:53.080
<v Speaker 6>stage of well, we just have to kind of play

0:50:53.120 --> 0:50:56.200
<v Speaker 6>around with things and tweak them till they fit because

0:50:56.520 --> 0:51:00.719
<v Speaker 6>of the intrinsic limitations. So I think we're at a

0:51:00.840 --> 0:51:03.600
<v Speaker 6>very early stage in understanding all of these things. So

0:51:04.520 --> 0:51:07.640
<v Speaker 6>for certain the role that simulations play is going to

0:51:07.920 --> 0:51:12.240
<v Speaker 6>change and evolve and I hope improve over the coming years.

0:51:12.600 --> 0:51:15.800
<v Speaker 1>So if you use the words universe and simulation together

0:51:15.840 --> 0:51:18.200
<v Speaker 1>in a sentence, that of course evokes in people's minds

0:51:18.239 --> 0:51:21.320
<v Speaker 1>this conversation that seems to be omnipresent, which is, you

0:51:21.360 --> 0:51:24.080
<v Speaker 1>know whether or not our universe could be a simulation

0:51:24.400 --> 0:51:27.759
<v Speaker 1>or the same question sort of when we build artificial

0:51:27.840 --> 0:51:31.360
<v Speaker 1>universes that have bits and pieces in it, could those

0:51:31.480 --> 0:51:34.799
<v Speaker 1>universes feel real to those occupants. So in your book,

0:51:34.840 --> 0:51:36.919
<v Speaker 1>you take a sort of skeptical view of the question

0:51:37.000 --> 0:51:39.600
<v Speaker 1>of whether we could be living in a simulation. Since

0:51:39.600 --> 0:51:42.440
<v Speaker 1>you're an expert on simulating universes, what are your arguments

0:51:42.480 --> 0:51:44.800
<v Speaker 1>against the concept that we could be living in a simulation.

0:51:45.160 --> 0:51:47.560
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think the primary argument is just to look

0:51:47.560 --> 0:51:51.040
<v Speaker 6>at the complexity of the universe that we're in. So

0:51:51.120 --> 0:51:54.440
<v Speaker 6>you can actually calculate something called the number of cubits,

0:51:54.600 --> 0:51:57.680
<v Speaker 6>so basically the number of quantum bits that you would

0:51:57.719 --> 0:52:00.120
<v Speaker 6>need in a quantum computer if you wanted to do

0:52:00.640 --> 0:52:03.680
<v Speaker 6>according to all the physics we know so far, if

0:52:03.680 --> 0:52:07.400
<v Speaker 6>you wanted to do a perfect simulation of our universe,

0:52:07.760 --> 0:52:10.120
<v Speaker 6>and that is a vast number. I forget it off

0:52:10.160 --> 0:52:11.400
<v Speaker 6>the top of my head. I think it's something like

0:52:11.440 --> 0:52:13.920
<v Speaker 6>ten to the one hundred and twenty four cubits.

0:52:13.920 --> 0:52:16.960
<v Speaker 3>It's something like that. It's a very very large number.

0:52:17.280 --> 0:52:19.879
<v Speaker 6>And right now, you know, we struggle even to make

0:52:19.920 --> 0:52:23.600
<v Speaker 6>a single cubit in a quantum computer. It's a vast

0:52:23.640 --> 0:52:26.879
<v Speaker 6>extrapolation from where we are now to the idea that

0:52:27.400 --> 0:52:31.440
<v Speaker 6>we will routinely be able to run simulations that have

0:52:31.560 --> 0:52:35.480
<v Speaker 6>the same kind of richness as the reality that we

0:52:35.560 --> 0:52:36.359
<v Speaker 6>currently live in.

0:52:36.640 --> 0:52:40.360
<v Speaker 3>But even more than that. If you ask, well, you know, what.

0:52:40.280 --> 0:52:44.600
<v Speaker 6>Resources would you need to build a computer that really

0:52:44.640 --> 0:52:49.200
<v Speaker 6>had that level of capability, Well, it turns out you

0:52:49.239 --> 0:52:53.120
<v Speaker 6>would need to make use of the entire universe just

0:52:53.160 --> 0:52:59.000
<v Speaker 6>to simulate one universe. Because physics puts limitations on information processing.

0:52:59.080 --> 0:53:02.960
<v Speaker 6>You can't process as much information as you like. There

0:53:02.960 --> 0:53:06.080
<v Speaker 6>are limitations placed on it according to the physical system

0:53:06.120 --> 0:53:08.719
<v Speaker 6>that it's being processed by, and so these come back

0:53:08.760 --> 0:53:12.120
<v Speaker 6>to bite you. So and that's what gives rise to

0:53:13.120 --> 0:53:16.080
<v Speaker 6>this claim that you can only simulate the whole universe

0:53:16.520 --> 0:53:20.280
<v Speaker 6>perfectly if you have access to the entire physical resources

0:53:20.560 --> 0:53:24.480
<v Speaker 6>of that universe. Now, there are lots of further objections

0:53:24.520 --> 0:53:27.120
<v Speaker 6>you can raise. You can say, well, what about, for example,

0:53:27.400 --> 0:53:32.000
<v Speaker 6>if the higher up universe where we're being simulated is

0:53:32.160 --> 0:53:35.960
<v Speaker 6>just a much bigger universe with many more cubits at

0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:40.240
<v Speaker 6>their disposal, and so these resources seem terribly trivial maybe

0:53:40.280 --> 0:53:43.120
<v Speaker 6>to the people in the higher up universe. But at

0:53:43.120 --> 0:53:45.720
<v Speaker 6>that point I kind of lose patience with the argument,

0:53:45.880 --> 0:53:48.839
<v Speaker 6>because it seems to me, at that point we it's

0:53:48.920 --> 0:53:52.040
<v Speaker 6>no longer a sort of obvious extrapolation from where we are.

0:53:52.080 --> 0:53:56.479
<v Speaker 6>Now you're now talking about hypothesizing beings with so much

0:53:56.520 --> 0:54:00.640
<v Speaker 6>more power and so much more technological capability than we have,

0:54:01.160 --> 0:54:03.920
<v Speaker 6>that we might as well just go and talk about religion,

0:54:04.120 --> 0:54:07.080
<v Speaker 6>because at this point it's lost contact, in my view,

0:54:07.200 --> 0:54:08.320
<v Speaker 6>with any science.

0:54:09.760 --> 0:54:12.880
<v Speaker 1>Wonderful. Well, I really enjoyed your book, And a question

0:54:12.960 --> 0:54:15.839
<v Speaker 1>I always have for folks who write popular science books

0:54:16.000 --> 0:54:20.080
<v Speaker 1>about very technical topics is why what do you think

0:54:20.120 --> 0:54:22.840
<v Speaker 1>that the general public, folks out there who are not

0:54:23.320 --> 0:54:26.480
<v Speaker 1>simulation experts need to know about simulation?

0:54:27.120 --> 0:54:28.560
<v Speaker 3>I think there were two reasons.

0:54:28.640 --> 0:54:31.360
<v Speaker 6>The first was it was amazing to me that nobody

0:54:31.440 --> 0:54:34.760
<v Speaker 6>had written about this topic before because it's so central

0:54:34.960 --> 0:54:38.239
<v Speaker 6>in our field of cosmology, and you know, cosmology is

0:54:38.280 --> 0:54:40.719
<v Speaker 6>something that people do talk about a lot. There's a

0:54:40.760 --> 0:54:43.120
<v Speaker 6>lot of it out there in the media and in books,

0:54:43.680 --> 0:54:46.120
<v Speaker 6>because it's genuinely you know, it's exciting, and I think

0:54:46.239 --> 0:54:48.840
<v Speaker 6>it speaks to all of us about where we came from.

0:54:49.239 --> 0:54:51.799
<v Speaker 6>And so it seems a real surprise to me that

0:54:51.920 --> 0:54:55.280
<v Speaker 6>this central tool in how we're learning about the universe

0:54:55.760 --> 0:54:57.880
<v Speaker 6>was not being written about, and so it felt to

0:54:57.880 --> 0:55:00.160
<v Speaker 6>me like it needs to be rectified. We need to

0:55:00.160 --> 0:55:04.000
<v Speaker 6>be talking about this because it offers immense strengths, you know,

0:55:04.400 --> 0:55:08.880
<v Speaker 6>real enormous strengths that I think are kind of hidden

0:55:08.880 --> 0:55:12.040
<v Speaker 6>away sometimes. But it also comes with lots of caveats,

0:55:12.040 --> 0:55:14.960
<v Speaker 6>some of them we've discussed. You know that we can't

0:55:15.040 --> 0:55:18.040
<v Speaker 6>do these perfect recreations of the universe. There are lots

0:55:18.080 --> 0:55:21.319
<v Speaker 6>of approximations. We might be making mistakes, and you know,

0:55:21.600 --> 0:55:23.439
<v Speaker 6>there's no way to rule that out. It's just part

0:55:23.440 --> 0:55:26.440
<v Speaker 6>of the scientific process that we have to keep an

0:55:26.440 --> 0:55:29.399
<v Speaker 6>open mind about these things. So I wanted to write

0:55:29.440 --> 0:55:32.120
<v Speaker 6>about that in a kind of open and honest way,

0:55:32.640 --> 0:55:36.600
<v Speaker 6>rather than sort of leaving the simulations as black boxes

0:55:36.640 --> 0:55:40.759
<v Speaker 6>that seemingly recreate our universe through some process of magic. No,

0:55:40.880 --> 0:55:44.840
<v Speaker 6>it's a very human process and it's got all of

0:55:44.840 --> 0:55:47.719
<v Speaker 6>the strengths and weaknesses that come with being that kind

0:55:47.760 --> 0:55:48.680
<v Speaker 6>of human process.

0:55:49.080 --> 0:55:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Wonderful. Well, thank you very much again. Professor Andrew Hanson

0:55:53.000 --> 0:55:55.479
<v Speaker 1>at University of College London and author of the book

0:55:55.680 --> 0:55:59.080
<v Speaker 1>The Universe in a Box Out now encourage everyone to

0:55:59.160 --> 0:56:03.239
<v Speaker 1>go out and about how science is actually done. Thanks

0:56:03.280 --> 0:56:05.040
<v Speaker 1>again very much Andrew for joining us today.

0:56:05.719 --> 0:56:07.600
<v Speaker 2>All Right, did you feel you had a real conversation

0:56:07.680 --> 0:56:10.520
<v Speaker 2>with him, Like, did things get real or was it

0:56:10.560 --> 0:56:12.279
<v Speaker 2>all just simulated pleasantries?

0:56:12.480 --> 0:56:17.520
<v Speaker 1>I was able to simulate enjoying a conversation. Yeah. Oh

0:56:17.680 --> 0:56:20.040
<v Speaker 1>that's sort of always my situation though, because I'm kind

0:56:20.080 --> 0:56:23.200
<v Speaker 1>of an introvert, so I have to simulate enjoying human interactions.

0:56:23.480 --> 0:56:26.359
<v Speaker 2>Yet you have to simulate being engaging human being.

0:56:27.040 --> 0:56:29.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to quietly slip unnoticed into human society.

0:56:29.920 --> 0:56:31.960
<v Speaker 2>So you are a simulation, Daniel.

0:56:32.719 --> 0:56:34.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm simulating being a human.

0:56:34.200 --> 0:56:37.000
<v Speaker 2>But anyways, that was a great conversation. What's your main

0:56:37.040 --> 0:56:37.719
<v Speaker 2>takeaway from it?

0:56:37.760 --> 0:56:40.440
<v Speaker 1>To me, it's fascinating that so recently in the history

0:56:40.480 --> 0:56:43.120
<v Speaker 1>of science, just the last few decades, we've developed this

0:56:43.200 --> 0:56:46.560
<v Speaker 1>crucial new tool that we now think is indispensable. It

0:56:46.600 --> 0:56:49.160
<v Speaker 1>makes me wonder in fifty years and one hundred years,

0:56:49.200 --> 0:56:52.040
<v Speaker 1>what new branch of science or what new tool we're

0:56:52.080 --> 0:56:55.480
<v Speaker 1>going to add to our toolbox which future scientists will

0:56:55.480 --> 0:56:58.600
<v Speaker 1>think is indispensable, And we'll wonder, like, how did Daniel

0:56:58.680 --> 0:57:01.360
<v Speaker 1>and folks who lived way back then do any science

0:57:01.400 --> 0:57:01.839
<v Speaker 1>without it?

0:57:02.080 --> 0:57:05.040
<v Speaker 2>Or maybe even like why did Daniel do science? Why

0:57:05.040 --> 0:57:09.480
<v Speaker 2>didn't they choose use the AI physicists to answer all

0:57:09.480 --> 0:57:09.960
<v Speaker 2>the questions?

0:57:10.040 --> 0:57:12.080
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, stay in bed and let the AIS do the work.

0:57:12.480 --> 0:57:14.560
<v Speaker 1>The answer to that is the AIS wan't answer questions

0:57:14.560 --> 0:57:17.800
<v Speaker 1>the AIS are interested in and science is for people,

0:57:17.880 --> 0:57:20.080
<v Speaker 1>by people, and of people, So you got to have

0:57:20.160 --> 0:57:21.360
<v Speaker 1>people asking questions.

0:57:21.480 --> 0:57:23.200
<v Speaker 2>Wait, wait, do you mean the AIS won't always do

0:57:23.240 --> 0:57:24.080
<v Speaker 2>what we ask them to do.

0:57:25.920 --> 0:57:28.880
<v Speaker 1>They'll always do exactly what we ask them to do,

0:57:28.920 --> 0:57:30.640
<v Speaker 1>just not and maybe in the way that we want

0:57:30.680 --> 0:57:30.920
<v Speaker 1>them to.

0:57:31.320 --> 0:57:34.680
<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, stay tuned to see if we are

0:57:34.680 --> 0:57:37.680
<v Speaker 2>in a simulation right now? Maybe I guess some people

0:57:37.760 --> 0:57:39.480
<v Speaker 2>consider the whole universe to be service.

0:57:39.240 --> 0:57:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Simulation, right, how can we possibly know?

0:57:41.640 --> 0:57:43.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Like, what's the difference if.

0:57:43.200 --> 0:57:45.960
<v Speaker 1>We are in a vast alien simulation. Then I definitely

0:57:46.000 --> 0:57:47.880
<v Speaker 1>want to talk to those aliens because they have some

0:57:48.040 --> 0:57:49.600
<v Speaker 1>awesome computers.

0:57:49.360 --> 0:57:52.200
<v Speaker 2>And also to stay tuned about what new developments humans

0:57:52.200 --> 0:57:56.240
<v Speaker 2>are going to discover using simulations and or artificial intelligence.

0:57:56.480 --> 0:57:58.600
<v Speaker 2>So we hope you enjoyed that. Thanks for joining us,

0:57:59.280 --> 0:58:00.000
<v Speaker 2>see you next time.

0:58:07.800 --> 0:58:10.600
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening, and remember that Daniel and Jorge Explain

0:58:10.680 --> 0:58:14.680
<v Speaker 1>the Universe is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts

0:58:14.680 --> 0:58:19.320
<v Speaker 1>from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

0:58:19.400 --> 0:58:21.120
<v Speaker 1>you listen to your favorite shows.