Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: We've spent a couple of weeks trying to get him
Speaker 2: in here. He's with Heart Tree Partners. Edward Morris's absolutely
Speaker 2: definitive on hydrocarbon. Think of Daniel Jurgen's surprise. Ed Morris
Speaker 2: shows up about page twenty three in the prize from
Speaker 2: a few years ago. Definitive at City Group and of
Speaker 2: course now with Hart Tree Partners. When was the first
Speaker 2: time you were in Riod.
Speaker 1: It was in the late nineteen seventies.
Speaker 2: With Faisal, with King Faisel.
Speaker 1: Yes, but I didn't see him at that point in time.
Speaker 2: What is the sharp okay, fine, but what is the
Speaker 2: strongest difference now between the Royalty of Riod Is they
Speaker 2: look out at this Maelstrom versus our stereotype of Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 1: So the saudiast have come a long way. They're looking
Speaker 1: at how to keep public happy. They are trying to
Speaker 1: diversify their economy as quickly as they can, and it's
Speaker 1: looking to the future rather than building on the present
Speaker 1: or the past.
Speaker 2: What is their relationship with Russia? This idea of opek
Speaker 2: plus is it a what's the distinction of that relationship.
Speaker 1: The relationship is kind of critical. Think about where the
Speaker 1: Saudis are where Opek is. The Saudis have a production
Speaker 1: capacity today between eleven and twelve million barrels a day.
Speaker 1: That's what they had in nineteen eighty. Nineteen eighty was
Speaker 1: a long time ago. OPEC's production capacity then was around
Speaker 1: thirty two to thirty three million barrels a day. Today
Speaker 1: it's thirty five thirty six million barrels a day. The
Speaker 1: oil market was then sixty million barrels a day and
Speaker 1: today it's one hundred million a day. So they discovered
Speaker 1: that they could not on their own balance the market,
Speaker 1: They could not put a floor under prices, and they
Speaker 1: needed to expand, and they had the opportunity to do
Speaker 1: so in the middle of the last decade, when we
Speaker 1: had volatility across the planet, and a lot of that
Speaker 1: volatility was the result of the two fastest growing oil
Speaker 1: producing countries in the world, Russia and the United States.
Speaker 1: They were looking in the middle of the last decade,
Speaker 1: actually around twenty thirteen, just at the time before Russia
Speaker 1: had his first invasion of Ukraine, and they saw that
Speaker 1: the production growth was a million barrels a day in
Speaker 1: both countries. If you look back a couple of years
Speaker 1: and they decided to bring prices down. They thought if
Speaker 1: they could bring prices down to around seventy dollars a barrel,
Speaker 1: they would lose. They would see the world lose two
Speaker 1: million barrels a day of oil. And it didn't happen.
Speaker 2: Paul, I want to mention this. Everyone was looking for
Speaker 2: one hundred and it was a lone voice at City Group,
Speaker 2: a big chrizzled I mean Edward Morris, you know, a
Speaker 2: bit older, saying well, maybe not he nailed the move
Speaker 2: to seventy.
Speaker 3: So ed how do you think about Russia as a
Speaker 3: global supplier these days, because it seems like just in
Speaker 3: the last few days, things are changing. When you think
Speaker 3: about the Trump administration how they're viewing Russia. Do you
Speaker 3: expect Russia to be a bigger global supplier. I'm not
Speaker 3: sure where that oil went.
Speaker 1: You know, it all depends on when you're talking about
Speaker 1: what your horizon is and what could possibly happen. And
Speaker 1: you have to remember that it wasn't that long ago.
Speaker 1: It was twenty nineteen when Putin visited Russia, visited Saddi
Speaker 1: Raby right after the attack on the app cake facility.
Speaker 1: And said, listen, we're going to be cooperating with you
Speaker 1: through your Ramco IPO, and then we're going to be
Speaker 1: out on our own. And section the CEO of Roznev
Speaker 1: said right after that IPO, we're out on our own.
Speaker 1: We are going to be growing oil production at home
Speaker 1: and abroad. They have right now the Vastok field in
Speaker 1: northern Siberia, and that field can produce its schedule to
Speaker 1: produce two million incremental barrels a day. They are a
Speaker 1: wash in oil and they need to do something about it.
Speaker 2: So President Trump says, drill, baby, drill, and we don't
Speaker 2: waste time on that. But what we can state with
Speaker 2: Edward Morse is oil a weapon for the United States
Speaker 2: in our geopolitics.
Speaker 1: Oil is certainly an important part of the foreign policy
Speaker 1: in the country. It cannot be weaponized other than the
Speaker 1: degree to which you can put sanctions on a country.
Speaker 1: I don't know what weaponizing it means. I don't know
Speaker 1: what we're going to pursue. Energy dominance means. I know
Speaker 1: what it means as a soft, powerful instrument of policy.
Speaker 1: And let me give you an example. We have become
Speaker 1: the largest exporter of energy in the world. The largest
Speaker 1: exporter of ellain that LNG export growth enabled the United
Speaker 1: States to replace every drop of Russian energy, but particularly
Speaker 1: natural gas going into Europe, and it did so at
Speaker 1: a time when it was able to globalize a gas
Speaker 1: market that had not been globalized. We have made oil
Speaker 1: because we don't allow destination restrictions. We've enabled natural gas
Speaker 1: to be global and the price of it is based
Speaker 1: at Henry Hubb in the United States. That's kind of
Speaker 1: soft diplomacy. We have an ability to expand LNG globally,
Speaker 1: but it's a soft ability. We have an ability to
Speaker 1: say multilateral lending institutions ought to be pushing natural gas.
Speaker 1: They ought to be backstopping regasification. It's cleaner than coal,
Speaker 1: it's helpful to the global economy. But that's soft diplomacy.
Speaker 1: It's not using it as a weapon.
Speaker 3: So talk to us about the demand side of the equation,
Speaker 3: and know, when you think about some of these commodities
Speaker 3: like global oil, you really have to have a call
Speaker 3: on demand. What do you think demand?
Speaker 2: Is brilliant question, but even more brilliant, do you drive
Speaker 2: an EV?
Speaker 1: I got to tell you I did drive an EV
Speaker 1: until we moved back to New York. Full time, and
Speaker 1: then I discovered that it was too expensive to have
Speaker 1: a car and to deal with actually the rush on
Speaker 1: garages right at the edge of the zone from where
Speaker 1: New York didn't want to go south there.
Speaker 2: Coming up on the congestion text, Paul, continue with your.
Speaker 3: Good your demand view here of the next year or two.
Speaker 1: So as we know, there's been a difference of demand
Speaker 1: views between people in this country, between OPEK and the
Speaker 1: ia OPEK and the IAU. Demand is kind of very
Speaker 1: simple if you look at it. Historically, we've had a
Speaker 1: regular drop in the oil intensity of GDP around the world,
Speaker 1: starting at the really end of the post World War
Speaker 1: Two growth of road transport in reconstructed Europe, reconstructed Japan,
Speaker 1: and in the unterstate highway system in the US, We've
Speaker 1: had year after year a drop in the percentage of
Speaker 1: demand growth per unit of GDP growth. Now, that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean that oil demand comes to an end. It means
Speaker 1: it slows down, okay. And to give you an example,
Speaker 1: if we go back to nineteen seventy seventy one, for
Speaker 1: every one percent increase in the world in global oil
Speaker 1: demand and GDP, there was a one point one one
Speaker 1: point two percent increase in oil demand. Today's about zero
Speaker 1: point three to one. So if we have three percent
Speaker 1: global GDP growth, we have a million barrels a day
Speaker 1: on a one percent based on one hundred million barrel
Speaker 1: a day market of oil demand, and that's continuing to slide.
Speaker 1: So think of it as we're not going to have
Speaker 1: much more than million barrels a day demand growth.
Speaker 2: We have thrilled out with us today, Edward Morris. Of
Speaker 2: course you know I'm from City Group at Heart treet
Speaker 2: Partners now definitive on the geopolitics of oil and also
Speaker 2: of course pricing of Well do you have at heart treater?
Speaker 2: Are you allowed to have a brent guess? Do you
Speaker 2: have an oil barrel guess? Or is it a folk spot?
Speaker 1: No, No, it's not a problem. We live in the
Speaker 1: most volatile market the world has seen, based on things
Speaker 1: that are out of our control. We don't know what's
Speaker 1: going to happen here and there. It's a relatively evenly
Speaker 1: balanced market. But for the fact that Opek, going back
Speaker 1: to your first question, Opey plus has taken so much
Speaker 1: oil out of the market that it now amounts to
Speaker 1: eight million barrels a day. That's a lot of shut
Speaker 1: in production capacity that can come on. And if we
Speaker 1: look at the volatility today, we have prices going up
Speaker 1: in part because of the drone attacks on the CPC
Speaker 1: pipeline coming out of the Caspi and bringing Russian and
Speaker 1: Kazakh oil into the Mediterranean. We have an announcement from
Speaker 1: Kurdistan from Baghdad that the pipeline from Kurdistan through Turkey
Speaker 1: into the Mediterranean is going to be revived next week.
Speaker 1: That's we've lost maybe three hundred thousand barrels a day
Speaker 1: out of the CPC pipeline. We'll get perhaps three hundred
Speaker 1: thousand barrels a day out of Iraq unexpected by next week.
Speaker 1: So given that volatility, we think oil is in the range.
Speaker 1: The range is sixty eight to seventy eight.
Speaker 2: I assume it's Ghosh, that's French ghoshe of you to
Speaker 2: do buy, hold, sell right now. I don't want to
Speaker 2: buy hoold sell in big oil. But how do you
Speaker 2: position big oil when I see Chevron announcing massive layoffs,
Speaker 2: massive restructure and you know it's weak double digit return
Speaker 2: over thirty years. Is big oil prosperous? Is it thriving?
Speaker 2: Is it the stereotype of our ute.
Speaker 1: Well, as we know, some big oil is prospering and
Speaker 1: some big oil is not prospering. Maybe for some investments
Speaker 1: that they were making in the past, in the recent past,
Speaker 1: in the drive to go heavily into renewables and into
Speaker 1: things that weren't providing the same level of return. But
Speaker 1: look at the production growth of Chevron, the production growth
Speaker 1: of Exxon on a global platform based in part of
Speaker 1: the United States. They're increasing their output. They're increasing their
Speaker 1: output of oil and gas in a world in which
Speaker 1: they're very competitive. Ed talk to us.
Speaker 3: I'm watching the television show Landman at the life in
Speaker 3: the oil patch in West Texas, So I now consider
Speaker 3: myself an expert on global oil and gas. Here talk
Speaker 3: to us about the US. We're now a net exporter
Speaker 3: of energy. What is our role in the global energy market?
Speaker 3: Visav said, maybe like an OPEC pluster or something.
Speaker 1: We have transformed the energy market, so the world, including
Speaker 1: the oil market. If you go back to twenty ten,
Speaker 1: we were a gross importer and a net importer, and
Speaker 1: our production base if you add NGLs and other liquids,
Speaker 1: was around eight million barrels a day the last month
Speaker 1: for which we have data. Our production of liquids was
Speaker 1: twenty three million barrels a day. We have moved from
Speaker 1: being the largest gross and net import of the world
Speaker 1: to being the largest gross exporter. We export sixteen to
Speaker 1: seventeen million barrels a day of liquids. Nobody. That's more
Speaker 1: than the combined exports of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Our
Speaker 1: production is more than the total production of Russia and
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia combined. And we've become a net exporter on
Speaker 1: the order of magnitude of four million barrels a day.
Speaker 1: So that has made the basic difference in the global
Speaker 1: market is a wild difference. Is what gives the US leverage.
Speaker 2: I'd love to get you back in here in a
Speaker 2: six months three month basis, Doctor Morris. Let me ask
Speaker 2: you one final question, and it's sort of from sixty
Speaker 2: thousand feet in philosophical how bad did Angel and Miracle
Speaker 2: screw up? I mean within the arch of Edward Morris's
Speaker 2: tenure owning the high ground on this how bad did
Speaker 2: German leadership screw up? From abnaw or forward.
Speaker 1: So my personal experience in it is dealing with the
Speaker 1: effort by Germany to become dependent on Russian gas. So
Speaker 1: I was in the State Department at the time that
Speaker 1: the servant.
Speaker 2: Both Carter and Reagan.
Speaker 1: And the US and France were the only NATO countries
Speaker 1: that said, hey, you've got to look at you Germany
Speaker 1: have to look at dependence. Yes you can import gas,
Speaker 1: but think about what it will do to your foreign policy.
Speaker 1: Think about what leverage you've lost in terms of that dependency,
Speaker 1: your inability to say no. And we saw that over time,
Speaker 1: and I think Germany has really learned that lesson in
Speaker 1: terms of being very reluctant as they go through this
Speaker 1: election process this coming Sunday, Almost all of the parties
Speaker 1: are reluctant to do more than say we might consider
Speaker 1: importing oil on a spot basis, but not on a
Speaker 1: full contract basis.
Speaker 2: Thirty seconds. Does Tesla have a future?
Speaker 1: I think evs have a future. I'm not going to
Speaker 1: pick one versus another. But they're fun cars to drive,
Speaker 1: They're cleaner than other cars to drive, and they're getting
Speaker 1: more and more mileage. So if I were to buy
Speaker 1: a car again, I would certainly not hesitate to buy it.
Speaker 2: Now. There we are the endorse that we need. Edward Morris,
Speaker 2: thank you so much. Thank you for joining Bloomberg and
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance today, doctor Morris. Of course, they are in
Speaker 2: the tumult, the maelstrom that is oil today,