WEBVTT - Beating The Book: Guessing Lines Week 3 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.000 Check it on, man, No down, Man, we have to 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.160 talk about today. My goodness, guessing lives right here on 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:18.320 the Numbers Game at beast in these sports Betting Network 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:20.919 Serious XM Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:24.279 Visa f Food Boats Linking Game plus. Good morning to you. 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:26.880 It is Gil Alexander producing number seven. Jason con is here. 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.520 Good morning to you, Jason, Gil. How are you? Oh? 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:31.880 What do we get? It was so not enough time 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:33.400 to get in what we want to get in two 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:36.440 hours talking NFL. So let us, without further ado, bring 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:38.720 him in. He's the star of each and every Monday 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.280 here on a Numbers game and on the podcast side 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.560 as well at Beating the Book. He runs the South 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.480 Point Hotel Casino sports Book. He's been on the show 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:48.800 for what eight nine years now with us my mish 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:53.280 book of Chris and Andrews. Good morning, Chris, what's going on? Yale? 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:55.600 Good morning to you, Good morning to you. Let me 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:59.640 just start by saying this UM survivor over at Circle 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:04.679 after last week having forty two of entries knocked out, 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.399 only two entries, not two entries knocked out this week? 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:12.039 Uh and of these fifteen games that have been played 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.160 this week. Let me describe six of them a t 0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:20.720 S wise is Plinko. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Miami, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Denver, 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:23.720 Chicago and the Giants and Seattle, New England last night, 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.560 great game. So the games come down to planko. And 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:28.680 if you're one of these guys who are like, hey, 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.920 but the game's I pickcorn Planko, so I'm smart. Yeah, 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:34.040 We'll wait till next week and your games will be plinko. Anyway, 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:36.880 that's a backdrop of of the weekend in the NFL. 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:39.479 Let's go through these one by one, Chris, because there's 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:41.720 so much to talk about. And for those who are 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:43.160 just tuned in for the first time to this show 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:45.679 guessing lines, this is a tribute to the old Stardust 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.240 radio show. We are not the originators of this format. 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.080 I will I've been in a cocoon. Chrissy will give 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.320 me the matchup for this coming week. I will guess 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:54.960 what I believe the line to be. He will tell 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:56.280 me what he's about to put up here at the 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:59.120 South Point Hotel. And within that exercise we hope to 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:01.960 extract value. Let just say last week there were three 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.360 games in which I felt, Oh my god, there's value here. 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:08.960 Two of the three came home. So typically our first 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:12.560 reaction here on this show is a good one, and 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.000 one to perhaps not be swayed by the rest of 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.240 the week when our brains get in the way. But 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.280 I like that at Lanta line. I like that Miami line. 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.760 Both of those worked out. Minnesota not so much. GI 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:27.600 me the first one, Chrissie for Thursday. I think I 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:32.520 liked the same three games too, by the way, Yes, okay, 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:36.079 up first the Battle of Florida of Miami and Jacksonville 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:40.320 jackson that's the Thursday nighter. Well that's the Barton Burner. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.800 Miami Bills beat him last night or yesterday, I should say, 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:49.840 fourth consecutive time, thirty one to Dolphins. Do cover. Ryan 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.640 Fitzpatrick seven, two touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:57.799 Big target yesterday was his tight end Giziki eight touchdowns. 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:00.560 I should be eight touchdowns, eight catches for under thirty 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:02.840 yards that had touchdown. That would have been newsworthy. They 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:06.680 lost also, uh and then Jacksonville. How about the Jacksonville Jaguars, 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.400 who who a mirrored two games ago before the season started. 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:12.200 We're like Oh, they're taking for Uh, they're taking for Trevor. 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:15.880 Then they beat the Colts outright, uh, and then lose 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.200 yesterday on a Stephen Gostkowski forty nine yard field goal 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:22.160 with with one thirty six left. They lose to the 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:25.079 Titans by three and had a chance to either tired 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.440 or win it late until Minshew had a ball deflected 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.560 and uh and picked. But Minshew was thirty for forty 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.480 five after a nineteen for twenty performance in the opening game. 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:37.320 He's thirty forty five for three thirty nine, three touchdowns, 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:40.320 two picks, sacked twice. Yesterday, James Robinson sixteen carries for 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:43.120 a hundred two yards and a touchdown, but Jacksonville was 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:45.480 ten of fourteen on third downs. They were one for 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:49.120 one on four four hundred and eighty total yards. Remember, 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.720 they won when having two hundred and something yards of offense, 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:55.880 and they lose with four hundred eighty yesterday by amy 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:59.960 at Jacksonville. Uh, We're not at the point where jack 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.080 sin there will be three point favorites in a game, right, 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:04.800 But Miami certainly doesn't deserve to be fair. I'll just 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:10.320 put the difference. I'll say Jacksonville minus one and a half. Uh. Well, personally, 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:13.080 I made the game pick them. I'm still debating what 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.400 to do with these home field advantages and I'm trying 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:17.640 to chart it out and I haven't come to any 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:20.000 in conclusive yet. So my numbers came to pick. That's 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:24.720 our rate of powering wise, both teams equal. Uh, it's 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:26.760 like two and a half with Juice on the favorite, 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:29.480 three with Juice on the dog, Jacksonville the favorite. I'm 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.400 gonna open a two and a half. Uh. You know, 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.720 I don't know what. I'm kind of impressed with both teams. Jacksonville, 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.120 but really I'm with you. I had them rated at 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:42.240 the bottom of the pile going into this year, but 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:46.000 Minshew has actually been impressive, and so has the rest 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:49.599 of the team. Um. You know, I'm scratching my head 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.720 on him at this point, but you have to you 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.520 have to go by the results for what you see 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:58.360 that you know, Uh, Robinson ran for a hundred yards 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:03.039 on sixteen carries to Um, you know, this team's not bad. 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:04.400 So I'm gonna go to two and a half and 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:06.080 they have no real beef with that. If they's got 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:08.120 the three, you though, I think Miami would be a 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.320 play plus three you know how usually say you like 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.360 my number better, I like your pickup number better. Skill 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:17.680 Alexander christ Andrews right here on the numbers game at Vista, 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.599 these sports betting network. All right, I have no problem 0:05:20.640 --> 0:05:22.120 with that. So what was it? Finally in the end 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:25.920 minus what I'm gonna use? Two and a half? I see, 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:27.840 like I said, two and a half. Juice on the favorite, 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:29.920 three juice on the dog. We do everything. I'leven a 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:32.160 south point. I'm gonna open two and a half. They 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:34.440 beat me up to three, they bet me. Okay, all right, 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:36.520 let's go to Sunday morning. First of all, how many 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:41.680 Sunday morning games do we have compared to afternoon one 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:46.120 to three, four, five Jason till afternoon game eight and five? 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:49.640 Next week eight morning, five afternoon, much better, much better, 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.760 much better. Too many games at once? Oh my god, 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:56.920 this this past week ten and three? All right, what's 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.560 first in the morning? Well, first up, we've got the 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:04.599 Raiders at the Patriots. Raiders the Patriots, so Raiders sight 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:09.320 unseen here, Raiders play tonight. Raiders are let me get 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:12.280 the day. About five and a half point Dogs against 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:16.040 the Saints tonight. No Michael Thomas for the Saints. No 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:19.000 Trent Brown for the Raiders. I am glad to be 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:21.240 sitting out that game, glad to have nothing to do 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:28.040 with that game. The Patriots yesterday lose to the Seahawks. Um. 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:29.600 By the way, is there a line for this, because 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:31.400 I want to get into a Patriots rant here for 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:34.800 a second. There's only a couple of numbers out with 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:37.880 the Patriots playing late last night and the Raiders of 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:42.400 course not playing until tonight, only a few scattered numbers 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.120 out there, so not many. But my power rating is 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.680 pretty close to what the scattered numbers are. Okay, well, 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:50.799 I have a few things to say. One, can somebody 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:53.599 get Bill Belichick a proper mask. He was fidgeting with 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:56.640 that thing all night long, that thing halfway down his chin. 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.359 For God today this was just awful, so distracting. But 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.560 the Patriots up losing last night to the Seahawks in 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:05.520 a dramatic game, great Sunday night football game. Everything. It 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:07.840 was hyped up to be. Uh second year defensive n 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:09.960 L J. Collier making the play that assured the win 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.720 was actually Delano Hill who took out the full back 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.800 and then Collier made the player with Cam Newton stuffing 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:16.480 him at the one yard line in the final play, 0:07:16.520 --> 0:07:20.040 Seahawks beating the Patriots thirty five to thirty, just covering 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:22.920 on Sunday night, but it was an eight yard closing 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.560 drive by New England. The closing moments they reached the 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:27.680 one on the pass too and kill Harry. With three 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:29.720 seconds left final play, Newton tried to run power to 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:32.360 the left but was upended by Collier, the biggest play 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:35.400 of his young career. Collier and Jamal Adams said from 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:37.320 the formation it was clear where the Patriots were going 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.240 with the play. Let me just say this. I've heard 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:40.520 a lot of people at the end of this game, 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:42.200 and we'll talk about it more when we get to Seattle, 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.360 but I've heard a lot of people blasting Seattle's third 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:48.200 and one play on the previous drive, like, oh my god, 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.600 why would Russell Wilson throw that deep and complete stops 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:55.360 the clock. Seattle has one and clinched so many games, 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:59.000 big games doing just that that for anyone to criticize 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:02.640 that now, it's just realt oriented analysis because they do 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.920 that all the time and win in clinch football games. 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.160 I had a bigger problem, quite frankly, with two other things. 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.760 One was it was it Chris Carson who decided to 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:16.480 slide on first down on that sequence for no reason 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.720 before the two minute warning, like he had he could 0:08:18.720 --> 0:08:20.640 go to the marker get a first down right before 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.320 the two minute warning. Instead he decided to slide and 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.360 put him in second and four, I believe the play 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:28.760 before the third one. So that was the bigger MISQ 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:31.480 to me. I had a more bigger problem with that 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:33.360 than I did with a third and one pass from 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.200 Russell Wilson, which I think is results oriented analysis that 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:39.120 it went in complete. And then let me just say 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.439 this to Chrissy, because this goes back to the Super 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:44.640 Bowl between the Patriots and the Seahawks, which of course 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:48.800 famously UH was was punctuated by Malcolm Butler's pick of 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.720 Russell Wilson at the goal line UH some years ago. 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.200 And I always look back at that Super Bowl and 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:58.880 no one can convince me otherwise that Bill Belichick was saved. 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.640 His legacy to a large degree was saved by that 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:06.040 pick because he let the clock run down and didn't 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:08.440 use a time out. And I remember in real time 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:10.160 at the time, I was going, why is he not 0:09:10.200 --> 0:09:12.559 calling a time out? What is he doing? And when 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.760 it ended up being a pick. The the narrative after 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:18.440 the fact was, oh, what a genius Bill Belichick was 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.160 for leaving so little time on the clock, you know, 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.199 like he was getting him frazzled. And I always to 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.439 this day I called BS on that because it's like, 0:09:25.480 --> 0:09:28.080 if that was anybody but Bill Belichick, and and of 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:30.880 course he got saved by it by Bye Malcolm Butler, 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:34.280 but that was anybody Belichick. People'll be killing him last night. 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.880 I haven't heard one person make this knock about Belichick 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.120 from twenty eight seconds when when there was that pass 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.880 down field to Julian Edelman in bounds, when the Patriots 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.600 were matriculating the ball down the fielders twenty eight seconds left, 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:51.040 when when Edelman caught that ball, by the time they 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:53.560 had two time outs in their pocket. By the time 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:56.920 they ran their next play and it was incomplete, there 0:09:56.920 --> 0:10:00.160 were only nine seconds left with two time out in 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:03.480 their pocket. And I haven't heard one person go after 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.800 Belichick for that. That was a bigger blunder to me, 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:10.800 uh than what the Seahawks ever did on third down. 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:12.959 I'm not sure how you feel about that, but that 0:10:12.960 --> 0:10:17.800 that's what got me yesterday. Oh, I can't nobody said 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:21.440 anything about that. One person say anything about that. Maybe 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:23.000 I'm wrong, Maybe I haven't heard it. I haven't heard 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:27.080 a Wow. I was saying the same thing when I'm 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:29.719 sitting here watching the game, and you know, guess who 0:10:29.720 --> 0:10:32.280 we needed, And I'm saying, yeah, we we we got 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.600 a call time out there. It's ridiculous. They wasted way 0:10:34.640 --> 0:10:38.160 too much time. Um, you know that that was a 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.480 bad move by Belichick. It doesn't make too many bad ones, 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:43.480 but that was definitely a bad one right there. Anyone, 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:45.360 I don't know how far we're gonna get into. Yeah, 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.120 we can go ahead. Yeah, I was gonna say, anyway, 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.599 for this game, we just totally totally sidetracked from you 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.760 from the Raiders at New England, and there's barely a 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:55.080 line on the game. I guess we should move on 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:56.679 from this. We'll talk more about him when we get 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.679 to the Seahawks. But I said Patriots, I mean as 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:00.599 a placeholder, right because we haven't the Raiders and we 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:03.120 don't know who's gonna be available for the Raiders. But 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.120 Cam looks good. Let me just say that. So this 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.240 has to be six or more. I said six in 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:13.720 the end, but it can't be any lower than six. Well, 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.280 it's six, that's what it is. My power rings again 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:18.880 come to five. But I don't know what to do 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.559 with home field, I honestly do so I think six 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:24.080 is a is a good number to start. By the way, 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:28.400 that last yard that Cam didn't get it was the 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:35.040 most expensive yard in my career, certainly since London Fletcher 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:39.120 tackled Mason at the one and Super Bowl. Whatever the 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.080 hell room and number from the number from it was, 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:46.079 it was monstrous, and I mean, you know, we'll get 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:48.160 into it a little later. I'm sure it was a 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:52.000 blood batch rush yesterday and that would have saved us 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:55.320 a bunch. Any you don't want to share exactly what 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:59.560 a bunch means, no, because you know, you know, I 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:01.960 don't know why I don't. It's just still in me 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.240 because if he had, Mike Laude, he'd tell you exactly 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.960 where wasn't Jim, You'll probably tell you later today, but 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:09.800 I'm not gonna tell you. Let him tell. Okay, we'll 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:14.920 go with a bunch here on a numbers game. Wow 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:17.960 that one yard because it was interesting because because your 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:22.839 buddy Nick Bogdanovitch said that the Chiefs outcome was the 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:26.840 biggest swing in any regular season game he's ever had, 0:12:27.120 --> 0:12:31.240 which I was like, wow, that's interesting. Ever really that 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:36.400 was the second biggest. Wow. Whoas by the way, I 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:38.000 don't know if you know this, Chrissy, but this NFL 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.320 betting thing is gonna catch you on one day, one day, 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:44.800 one day, people are going to figure this out. The 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:50.560 newsletter went out, Yes it was, yes, yes it was. 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:53.240 By the way, Newton. Just to be thorough, Cam Newton 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.800 yesterday thirty of forty four for three ninety seven, one touchdown, 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.560 one pick. Uh one time said but he also had 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:02.280 eleven Harry's on the ground for forty seven yards two touchdowns. 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.960 But as Chrissy said, not that last yard or two, 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.960 which was huge. Julian Edelman, who I mentioned earlier, eight 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.640 catches one hundred and seventy nine yards career high for 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:15.000 Julian Edelman, And let me just say, Cam looks way better. 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.280 Do we have that tweet from Bill Barnwell where all 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:20.319 the other people that got signed or got bigger contracts 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.960 than than Cam Newton, because it's it's unbelievable, and we 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.320 were saying this, yeah, it's incredible. Well we'll flash that 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:30.240 up here. Uh, Momentoel there, it is Andy Dalton. This 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:31.760 is from Bill barn Well. Some of the quarterbacks was 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:36.760 signed deals from more guaranteed money than cam this offseason. Dalton, Gabbert, Huntley, 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:44.000 Brett Hundley, McCoy, driscoll, Daniel Mariota, Keenum mccaren, Henny Shaub, Barkley, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.920 and then in caps Bill decided to put this guy 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:53.360 in Capps Nathan Peterman. Good lord, alright, I love that 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:59.360 threw caps on. That was pretty funny. All right, what's next? 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:05.080 I'm sorry to I'm sorry to rant rams at the Bills, 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.319 rams at the Bills to two and os, right, Rams 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:11.680 and Bills, Yeah, to two and os the rams at 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.240 the Bills. Rams. Uh. Beating the Eagles yesterday by the 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:18.040 score of thirty seven and nineteen one of the non plankos. 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:21.200 And then Buffalo gets the wind but does not cover 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:27.360 against Miami. Uh they win that thirty one to twenty eight. Um. Alright, 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.880 let's dive into stats first. I guess Golf to sixty 0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.520 seven three touchdowns, no picks sacked once in that game 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.280 against the Eagles. Henderson twelve of eighty one for a touchdown. 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:38.960 Tyler Higby five catches but three of them for scores. 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:41.440 Cam Akers. By the way, this is the biggest theme 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:43.400 of the weekend. Of course, as injuries. We haven't even 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.040 gotten to that yet. We will crescendo to the biggest injuries. 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.680 But cam Akers rib injury for the Rams yesterday Buffalo. 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:55.760 Josh Allen thirty five four seventeen career high, four touchdown passes, 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.720 career high, no picks, one time sacked. Of his thirty 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.200 six career touchdown passes. Fourteen for Josh Allen have come 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.480 against the Dolphins st five digs, eight free to touchdown, 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.960 John Brown four of eighty two for a touchdown. Five 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:13.040 hundred and thirty one total yards of offense for the 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:17.120 Bills in front of eleven thousand, seventy five yesterday. Uh, 0:15:17.280 --> 0:15:20.320 Buffalo by four, Buffalo minus four. This is in Buffalo. 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:26.000 You said, yeah, you're a little high. Uh again, two 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:27.920 and a half juice on the favorite, three juice on 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.800 the dog. I like the lower number myself. Um again, 0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:35.200 my I have the two teams rated evenly power rating wise, 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:37.600 and I'm gonna keep saying it probably throughout the show. 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:38.880 I just I'm not sure what to do with home 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:42.120 field advantage. I think it's probably, um, you know, a 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.200 little bit for the Bills because you got the Rams 0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.720 on the road two weeks in a row. Uh. And 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:52.920 and I'm really impressed with with what Josh Allen has become. 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.000 We had a lot of questions about him coming out 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.880 of the draft, and they were legitimate questions, really, but 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:00.560 the kid has gotten a lot better. And you know, 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.840 I'd like to mention QBR Excubr was nine three point 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:08.160 three yesterday, passerating seven. That's pretty close to perfect, especially 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:10.680 for a guy that through about thirty five times, you know, 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.480 So I think he really fits this team well, besides 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:17.880 being a much better quarterback than we thought even through 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.520 last season. But that being said, you know, god, there's 0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:24.520 a lot of knocks on him too. And his QBR 0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:28.239 is actually even a little higher pot nine those passerating 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:32.000 with slightly less one two, So he looked really good too. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.640 And I think, uh, I think a lot of people, 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:38.960 probably myself included to a degree, uh I thought this 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:41.080 was gonna be a bad year for the Rams, but 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:43.800 so far, not not so much at all. So I 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.120 think it's a really really good game for the Morning 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:47.600 and one of the best. There's a couple of good 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:48.840 ones out there. But this is one of the best 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:51.480 of the morning too. Really good teams right now that 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:53.640 I think a lot of people expected the Bills to 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.520 be really good. Maybe not Alan being that good, but 0:16:56.600 --> 0:17:03.000 the Rams probably haven't rated Hi rating wise. But Buffalo, 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.480 when that makes a lot of sentences. That's what opened 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:08.320 you said, Buffalo minus two and a half? Is that 0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:15.080 what you said? Yes? Three? You know, juice, Depending which 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:17.000 way to go, that's gonna end up being a game. 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:18.840 I want no part of my bet in the end. 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:22.639 But but yeah, I want to watch I can tell 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:24.040 you no, no, I want to watch it. I'm not 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:25.760 sure I want to bet it, though it's my point. 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:27.560 I'm not sure that's content. But let's try to squeeze 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:31.360 in one. Try to squeeze in one more here. Houston 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:36.720 at Pittsburgh, Houston at Pittsburgh, Houston loses to Baltimore and 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:42.360 and loses pretty comprehensively. Um curious fourth and one by 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:46.320 Bill O'Brien at the Houston thirty four. Down three to 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.440 nothing with two seconds left in the first quarter, they're 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:51.160 down a field goals fourth and one at their own 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.080 thirty four, and they decided to go for it. Of course, 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:56.320 they don't get it. Four plays later, it's ten to nothing. 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:02.600 I please someone exp lane. It's just it's just unbelievable. 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.400 DeShawn twenty five or thirty six for two seventy five, 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.199 one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked four times UH. 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:12.280 Pittsburgh UH safety Terrail Edmunds raised in unblocked, took down 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:15.000 Denver's backup quarterback Jeff Driscoll fourth and two at the 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.280 Pittsburgh fifteen with less than two minutes to play to 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:21.040 preserve their twenty six to twenty one victory. Seventh sack 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.040 of the day. That one was for Pittsburgh. Big Ben 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:25.960 forty one for three eleven, two touchdowns, one pick in 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:28.600 a sack, Connor sixteen for one oh six and a 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:31.040 touchdown on the ground. Deonte Johnson eight catches for ninety 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:35.119 two and a touch Chase Claypool a week after making 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:37.679 just a spectacular opening catch for him in his career, 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.960 big gainer, big touchdown for him three carry three receptions 0:18:42.040 --> 0:18:44.440 rather for eight eight yards and a touchdown. But Pittsburgh 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.480 was two for twelve on third downs. They had ten 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:48.360 penalties for eighty nine yards, so they got a lot 0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:52.199 to clean up. But I'll say Pittsburgh minus three and 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:57.960 a half. Let's say, WHOA, well, you really disagree on 0:18:58.000 --> 0:19:02.200 this one? O um four and a half of the 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:05.880 number I see, I see won five out there. I'm 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:10.120 leaning the higher way here. Uh. And you know, first 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:12.280 of all, let me say I'm not crazy about the 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:14.639 way Pittsburgh has played so far. They do have a 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:17.480 lot to clean up, and even on defense, I know 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:19.840 we're giving their defensive pass. They've done a lot of 0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:23.320 good things back in the quarterback. They had a fumble 0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.600 return for a for a touchdown. So some of the 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.680 things you're just looking. Number wise, you're very impressive with 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:34.119 the Steelers, but they didn't stop Denver with Jets Driscollard 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:37.480 quarterback when they really needed to, you know, to preserve 0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.119 that big league that they had. And that was actually 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:42.000 one of our few wins that we had on the day. 0:19:42.000 --> 0:19:45.119 So I shouldn't moan too much, but that was I 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.639 don't think the defense played that well, but I just 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.040 had to be closer to seven. I'm I'm not impressed 0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:55.200 with Houston at all. And Bill O'Brien, I mean him 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:56.600 going for that it looks like one of those things 0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:58.879 where a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And it 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:00.879 looks like he read a lot of at these analytics 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:07.119 and all that kills me. Man situation, that's not when 0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:11.000 you do it to a clearly superior team, you know 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:13.359 that you're still in the game at that point. You know, 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:19.560 fourth and one at your own Yeah, yeah, that you know. 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:21.439 So I'm gonna be on a higher end here. I'm 0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:25.879 gonna open size five. Okay five, not crazy off, but 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:29.280 off we'll come back. It's but I like, if I die, 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:31.760 if I see a trend to hire and born higher, 0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:34.840 I can tell you that. Okay, guessing lines with Chris Andrews, 0:20:34.960 --> 0:20:37.040 the star of the show right here at Visa the 0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:38.800 Sports Betting Network. Can I say something about the US 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:42.159 Open real quick? Here Jason US Open yesterday, Bryson D. 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:45.840 Shambo wins his first major. The only player under par, 0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:49.960 and I'm talking really under par. He was six under. 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:54.040 So a six stroke lead or six stroke win. Uh. 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:56.440 Here's the thing, as you know, if you listen to 0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:58.439 the show I had Patrick read among other bets at 0:20:58.480 --> 0:21:01.600 thirty to one, this is one of these great examples 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:06.400