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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast and it is good.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in Joel. I'm saying it's a catch touchtar

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Speaker 3: and that's all.

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Speaker 4: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 4: but they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate kabine you want to fall.

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Speaker 2: And we are under way.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 3: and this is your week five vetting preview with odds

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Speaker 3: courtesy of vet MGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast. I am joined, as always by my

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Speaker 3: Action Network colleague and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 3: Stucky Stuck. What is going on on? How was your

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Speaker 3: week four?

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Speaker 2: Fantastic? Week four? What seven and two or eight and

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Speaker 2: two Sunday? So zero complaints here, but who cares? We

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Speaker 2: are on to week five. Let's get him.

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Speaker 3: Or you don't want to stay on the plane after

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Speaker 3: week four and go to a strip club or something.

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Speaker 2: There's just there's no time for breaks during the NFL season.

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Speaker 3: So Urban Meyer doesn't he doesn't know that.

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Speaker 2: So well, apparently it was just kids trying to get

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Speaker 2: him on the dance floor. It was in his restaurant,

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Speaker 2: like I think it was his restaurant called like Urban

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Speaker 2: Myers Pinehouse, and uh there was like pictures of him

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Speaker 2: and his wife on the like on the like behind

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Speaker 2: the bar and stuff like the wallpaper. Just an absolute mess.

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Speaker 2: So we'll get to the Jags later.

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Speaker 3: Yes, we got a lot to talk about today, so

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Speaker 3: let's get right into it. We'll get to our Thursday

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Speaker 3: night football preview and then our Sunday six pack. But

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Speaker 3: before we kick things off, a couple of quick reminders. First,

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Speaker 3: if you plan to bet on any sport ever and

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Speaker 3: you still haven't downloaded the free, award winning Action Network app,

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Speaker 3: what are you doing. It's got betting tools, it lets

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Speaker 3: you shop for the best lines, it's got analysis from myself,

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Speaker 3: Stucky and the whole Action Network team, and most importantly,

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Speaker 3: it lets you track every bet that you make. Second,

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Speaker 3: if you need to reference our Sunday six pack picks anytime,

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Speaker 3: all you have to do is download the Action Network

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Speaker 3: app and follow Sunday Stix pack. In our follow up feature,

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Speaker 3: we track those picks there. They're posted every Friday. And finally,

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Speaker 3: in case you haven't checked out our other episodes here

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Speaker 3: on the Action Network podcast. Our Action teammates Brandon Anderson

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Speaker 3: and Raheem Palmer do shorter NFL betting shows every Monday

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Speaker 3: and Friday, which cover betting recaps, Monday Night football preview,

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Speaker 3: look Ahead, wines, basically anything that's stucky and I don't

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Speaker 3: touch on this podcast. All right, let's get into a stuck.

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Speaker 3: Let's get this shit crack in Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: For it's not the best game, but it's the only

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Speaker 1: game tonight. Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 3: So for Week five, we got a good one Rams

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Speaker 3: coming off. I guess you could say an upset loss

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Speaker 3: to the Cardinals since the Rams were favored going to

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Speaker 3: Seattle to play the Seahawks who rope through versus Trey

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Speaker 3: Lance in that second half, and we're able to come

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Speaker 3: out with a win. In San Francisco at bet MGM,

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Speaker 3: the Rams are favored by two and a half points.

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Speaker 3: The total is fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Stuck.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 2: Is this a mistake in the schedule? Do they mean

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Speaker 2: to put this game on Thursday Night? I can't believe

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Speaker 2: we have this night's of a matchup on a Thursday night,

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Speaker 2: getting used to seeing the Jags and Texans, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: it should be a really good one. This is actually

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Speaker 2: a rematch of the wild Card game from last year

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Speaker 2: when the Rams went up to Seattle and their defense

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Speaker 2: completely shut down Russell Wilson and company, and they won

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Speaker 2: that game. But you could see, you can just see now,

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Speaker 2: especially last week, the difference between the Rams defense last

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Speaker 2: year and the Rams defense this year. They lost a

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Speaker 2: lot of talent. The Browns, by the way, are benefiting

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Speaker 2: from some of that. You see how well their defense

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Speaker 2: is playing. But it's now just a completely stars and

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Speaker 2: scrubs unit, right, So like Jalen Ramsey is still going

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Speaker 2: to take care of business whoever he's lined up in

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Speaker 2: front of. Aaron Donald is still going to dominate in

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Speaker 2: the interior, but the rest of the roster and their

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Speaker 2: stateties are struggling. David Long is getting picked on at corner.

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Speaker 2: So this is a defense that is a lot more

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Speaker 2: vulnerable than it was last year. So I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's the same unit. So I think that Seattle can

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Speaker 2: have a lo of success here. And if you look

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Speaker 2: at Seattle's offensive numbers, you know they've been shut out.

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Speaker 2: They were so bad in the second half up until

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Speaker 2: throughout the season, up until last week when they finally

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Speaker 2: broke through. But some of their offensive numbers are really promising.

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Speaker 2: Zero point two eighty eight epa per play in early downs,

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Speaker 2: which is leads the NFL. But they've been pretty bad

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Speaker 2: on third downs. But I think those early downs are

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Speaker 2: a little more predictive of what we'll see from the

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Speaker 2: Seattle offense. So I've liked what I've seen on early

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Speaker 2: down success. I'm a little worried about that interior offensive

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Speaker 2: line against Donald and how much chaos can he cause

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Speaker 2: in the pocket. I'm a little worried there, but I

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Speaker 2: still think Seattle can have success here. The Rams offense

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Speaker 2: should obviously have success against Seattle's defense. The secondary has

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Speaker 2: been a disaster, so I think it's a game that

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Speaker 2: profiles for a lot of points. Hence the total. I'm

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Speaker 2: pretty spot on with a total. I make this game

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Speaker 2: closer to one, however, I know the totals really high. Rams,

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Speaker 2: by the way, no injury designations. One of the healthiest

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Speaker 2: teams in the NFL. I think Chris Carson and Seattle's

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Speaker 2: linebacker is are questionable. I always talk about wong teasers

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about the more later. You can tease through

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Speaker 2: three and seven. Technically, by definition, you know, you the

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Speaker 2: lower the total the better, and you're not supposed to

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Speaker 2: go over totals of fifty two, but I make exceptions

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Speaker 2: in certain circumstances. This is one of them. With Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 2: This is a great teaser piece. I think from plus

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Speaker 2: two and a half over plus eight to plus eight

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Speaker 2: and a half, you're crossing three, four, six, seven, and

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Speaker 2: now eight, which is important nowadays with the team's you know,

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Speaker 2: missing more extra points and two point conversions becoming more prevalent.

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, by the way, twenty four nine and two

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Speaker 2: against the spread as an underdog in his career seventy

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Speaker 2: two point seven percent. And I mentioned this last week

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Speaker 2: thirty three and two, when teased six points at any

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Speaker 2: dog number, any dog number, doesn't matter what it is,

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Speaker 2: thirty three and two. That's a cool ninety four point

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Speaker 2: three percent. And then after last week he's now when

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Speaker 2: I tease him last week too, he's not sixteen to

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Speaker 2: oh if you tease him six points when he's an

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Speaker 2: underdog between one and a half and three points, So

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Speaker 2: I know it's a high total. Both offenses should have

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Speaker 2: a lot of success here. You know, it increases the

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Speaker 2: variance in the game. But I like the Seahawks as

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Speaker 2: a teaser piece for this weekend. Should be a good game.

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Speaker 2: I think it's probably gonna come down to the wire.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I grabbed the Rams at plus one, so got

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Speaker 3: some good closing line value here. But I agree with

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Speaker 3: you at this spot. You know, if I was if

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Speaker 3: I didn't get that Rams number, I'd probably looking strictly

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Speaker 3: at a tease here. I do think the Rams got

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Speaker 3: in my head win this game, obviously. That's why I

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Speaker 3: took him at plus one. What really kind of sticks

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Speaker 3: out for me is, you know, you have Russell Wilson

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Speaker 3: on one side. You know, you know every time you

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Speaker 3: kind of doubt him out he's an underdog. He exceeds expectations.

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Speaker 3: On the other side, you have Sean McVay really well prepared,

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Speaker 3: well schemed, gonna come up, especially when his team's coming

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Speaker 3: off a loss. He's eight and two against the spread

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Speaker 3: in his career coming off a loss on the road,

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Speaker 3: covering by an average of ten points per game. So

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Speaker 3: McVeigh has been really good in these spots, and that

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Speaker 3: for me gives them a little bit of an edge.

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Speaker 3: I know the Seahawks have Waldron, but I think you

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Speaker 3: know the Seahawks everything they do is still under that

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Speaker 3: Pete Carroll like umbrella, and so I think it's still

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Speaker 3: edge McVeigh because he's gonna kind of know what Waldron's

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Speaker 3: thinking a little bit. I agree. I think both defenses

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Speaker 3: are going to struggle a bit in this one. But

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Speaker 3: I think the Rams have some matchups here. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Robert Woods has been a guy they really haven't fully

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Speaker 3: gotten involved yet. They want to get him more involved.

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Speaker 3: That's what the coach is saying. So you know, prop

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Speaker 3: alert as well. But Robert Woods going to line up

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Speaker 3: you know, on that on that on that right side,

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Speaker 3: and he's gonna go against either Trey Flowers or Sidney

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Speaker 3: Jones who took over for Tredye Flowers last week Flowers

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Speaker 3: was benched. Those two have combined to give up twenty

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Speaker 3: one of twenty five for three hundred and seventy eight

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Speaker 3: yards and three touchdo downs, no interceptions. That's fifteen yards

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Speaker 3: of target. That's eighteen yards of catch. So you know,

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Speaker 3: the Rams, I think any matchup they want, they're going

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Speaker 3: to be able to get it. Carson neck injury on

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Speaker 3: a short week, the Seattle's gonna have to rely on

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Speaker 3: Alex Collins, maybe a little more Homer Dallas. They're not

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Speaker 3: gonna be able to run it as good as they

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Speaker 3: normally will. I still think it's the advantage to the

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Speaker 3: Rams having a guy like Ramsey. At least you can

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Speaker 3: do things against either Metcalf or Locket, you know, whoever.

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Speaker 3: You know, they kind of choose. So I just think

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Speaker 3: Seattle's going to be a little more struggle a little more,

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Speaker 3: even though the teams are probably pretty evenly matched, because

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Speaker 3: I think McVeigh gives him an advantage in Carol at

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Speaker 3: this point probably gives them a disadvantage just in the

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Speaker 3: in the sense that you know, I Seattle's been so

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Speaker 3: inconsistent despite their talent this year on offense, and it

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Speaker 3: comes down to the philosophy. I think Pete Carroll still

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Speaker 3: wants them to run the ball and kind of commit

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Speaker 3: to that, and Seattle's offense has gotten cold for halves

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Speaker 3: at a time, and I just don't think you can

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Speaker 3: do that against this Ram team, especially when you have

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Speaker 3: mc vey kind of scheming things up and you don't

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Speaker 3: really have any matchup advantages on defense to speak of.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I kind of wean Rams here, but at

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Speaker 3: this number, I agree. I think it's better just teasing

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Speaker 3: it up. If you got the plus one, I would

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Speaker 3: just sit back and kind of hold on, hold on

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Speaker 3: to that.

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Speaker 2: Something else to notice. The Rams defensive line did look

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Speaker 2: gas at the end of the game last week. And

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Speaker 2: now it's a short week going to Seattle. You know,

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Speaker 2: Russ is always a good bet if down at the half.

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Speaker 2: Something to just keep in the back of your head.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, that's gonna wrap it for our Thursday night

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Speaker 3: football preview. Let's give the people what they want. Now.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the Week five Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, stuck. We actually broke even last week, so

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Speaker 3: I'm still up eighteen to fifteen. I believe it is.

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Speaker 3: I hit both of my two point picks. You hit

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Speaker 3: a two or one and a total, so four for

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Speaker 3: each of us. You got first pick in the Week

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Speaker 3: five six pack.

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Speaker 2: Where you go, Yeah, for my first It was great

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Speaker 2: week for both of us last week, picking up four

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Speaker 2: points and I didn't pick up any ground. We've just

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Speaker 2: been red hot to start the year, so hopefully it continues. Look,

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Speaker 2: if I just keep getting four points every week and

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Speaker 2: you do two and you win by three, all the

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Speaker 2: listeners are happy, and I will graciously could see the

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Speaker 2: contest to you. It's all about picking winners here. So

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Speaker 2: I'm going to start for my first pick of the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack. I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles plus

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Speaker 2: three and a half at bet MGM at the Carolina Panthers. Look,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think this is just a what we're

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Speaker 2: looking at here in the market is a perception difference

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Speaker 2: on two teams that really aren't that different in my eyes.

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Speaker 2: I mean the Panthers we talked about. I got off

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Speaker 2: to a three and oh start on one of the

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Speaker 2: easiest schedules you'll ever see in your life. They faced

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Speaker 2: a rookie quarterback at home in their first game against

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Speaker 2: the Jets. They then played the Saints at home, and

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Speaker 2: the Saints were in one of the worst spots you'll

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Speaker 2: ever see. Not only did they just beat the Packers,

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Speaker 2: they had all these assistants out due to COVID, they

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Speaker 2: had injuries. Panthers won that game. Then they get to

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Speaker 2: face another rookie quarterback on a short week, this time

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Speaker 2: in making his first start. So in their first three

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Speaker 2: games they faced two rookie quarterbacks making their first start,

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Speaker 2: so obviously they could jumped out to a three in

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Speaker 2: the league. And then on top of that, you have

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Speaker 2: a team that got an extended preparation and rest advantage

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Speaker 2: over the Cowboys who played on Monday night, and they

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Speaker 2: went to Dallas, they played their first real team and

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Speaker 2: first real quarterback of the year, you know, and then

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Speaker 2: they got humbled a bit, and all of that, Panthers

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Speaker 2: super Bowl talk has quieted down a little bit. Cowboys

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Speaker 2: averaged seven point seven yards per play. They ran thirty

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Speaker 2: four times for two hundred and forty five yards. It's

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Speaker 2: over seven yards per carry. So it's safe to say

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Speaker 2: Panthers defense is a bit overrated after the first three games.

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Speaker 2: The defense is also without three of the five players

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Speaker 2: who were starting in their nickel formations in the opener,

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Speaker 2: still will be without them this weekend. Shaq Thompson is

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Speaker 2: also hurt. That'll hurt, really, that'll hurt a lot at

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Speaker 2: linebacker where they're not the strongest, very thin there now.

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Speaker 2: And look the offense, it's still Sam Darnold, who I

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Speaker 2: don't trust it's still a makeshift offensive line who I

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Speaker 2: think the Eagles can have success against. Christian McCaffrey did

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Speaker 2: practice today. I doubt he plays. If they rush him

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Speaker 2: back here after are three and one to start, I'd

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Speaker 2: be pretty surprised. Given the injury. You don't want to

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Speaker 2: lose him long term. Maybe he plays, and that would

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Speaker 2: obviously help the Panthers, but I'm banking on the fact

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Speaker 2: that he doesn't. And look, this is still, like I said,

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Speaker 2: it's a really weak offensive line. I mean, in three

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Speaker 2: of the five spots you got set, Motoon has been

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Speaker 2: good and their center parodies has been good, but that's

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Speaker 2: at it. This third down defense for the Panthers also

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Speaker 2: not sustainable. Some of it's opponent driven, but there's major

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Speaker 2: regression coming. They're holding teams to a conversion rate of

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Speaker 2: twenty three point eight percent on third downs. That would

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Speaker 2: be an NFL record. The Dolphins, for reference, led the

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Speaker 2: league last year at thirty one point two percent. So

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Speaker 2: you see, the Panthers have all of these statistics that

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Speaker 2: are just really skewed because if their schedule, facing the

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Speaker 2: Saints in an awful spot, facing two rookie quarterbacks. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles have played the forty nine ers when they

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Speaker 2: were healthy, and again they probably should have won. They

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Speaker 2: dominated the Falcons. We've seen how bed the Falcons were,

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Speaker 2: and then you know they played the Chiefs and the Cowboys,

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Speaker 2: maybe two of the best offenses in the league. You're

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Speaker 2: getting value with the Eagles here after how these teams

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Speaker 2: have started. I do not think in any world that

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Speaker 2: this spread should be over a field goal. The Eagles

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Speaker 2: offense looked a lot better last week. They were playing

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Speaker 2: without four of their five original starting offensive linemen. Lane

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Speaker 2: Johnson word on the street as he will be. He

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Speaker 2: was out for personal reasons, wearing the streets coming back

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Speaker 2: to Philly tomorrow. Mayata, who's outstanding left tackle, who has

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Speaker 2: been out. He practiced in limited fashion today. So I

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Speaker 2: think they actually have a good shot of getting both

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Speaker 2: of them back. And I think that there's just way

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Speaker 2: too much value on this Eagles team to pass up here.

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Speaker 2: So give me the Philadelphia Eagles plus three and a

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Speaker 2: half at Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I love this pick. This would have been one

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Speaker 3: of my three. I bet it at four and a half.

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Speaker 3: It stood out to me early in the week when

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Speaker 3: I looked at the lines for anyone trying to get

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Speaker 3: these early numbers. Be sure to followed me in the

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Speaker 3: action app at Chris Raybond. You can also follow Stucky

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Speaker 3: at Stucky two. I agree with everything he said, and

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Speaker 3: I think there's another advantage that Philly has that it's

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Speaker 3: going to be. You know, defensive coordinator Phil Snow for

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Speaker 3: the Panthers, he's loved to blitz this year, and some

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Speaker 3: of that has been you know, he's facing a lot

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Speaker 3: of young quarterbacks, unproven quarterbacks generally, but Jalen Hurts, the

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Speaker 3: year two guy. You probably want to whits him a

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Speaker 3: bit too. That's just kind of their identity at this point.

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Speaker 3: But Hurts kind of dictates that you come out of

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Speaker 3: that and you don't blitz him because in his career,

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Speaker 3: on ninety eight pass attempts while blitz so a pretty

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Speaker 3: steady diet of blitz has Hurts his face is averaging

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Speaker 3: eight point eight yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and

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Speaker 3: one interception. That is unheard of, especially for a guy

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Speaker 3: who a lot of people think is you know, bad quarterback,

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Speaker 3: not accurate, you know, has to rely on his legs.

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Speaker 3: He's got an eight point two touchdown percentage, eight point

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Speaker 3: eight yards per attempt and He's been blitzed a ton

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Speaker 3: already in his young career. So now you're going to

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Speaker 3: make the Panthers play differently than they've been playing and

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Speaker 3: differently than they've had success on defense. So I think

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Speaker 3: that's another kind of hidden advantage. And if you know,

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Speaker 3: Hurts can kind of demoralize you a bit because you

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Speaker 3: could shut the play down and play coverage if you

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Speaker 3: don't blitz, and then he could still pick up that

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Speaker 3: first down with his legs. So you know, how long

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Speaker 3: before Phil Snow, you know, gets that itch and sends

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Speaker 3: some extra heat at Hurts. We'll see. But I think

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Speaker 3: that's another advantage that the Eagles have, So yeah, I

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Speaker 3: like them as well in this game, and that would

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Speaker 3: have been one of my three picks. All right. For

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Speaker 3: my first pick of the week five Sunday six pack

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Speaker 3: and the second overall pick, I am going with the

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Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings minus nine at bet MGM against the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 3: And this is just a smash spot from Minnesota. First

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Speaker 3: of all, we have Mike Zimmer coming off the loss

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Speaker 3: thirty two and fifteen in his career, sixty eight percent

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Speaker 3: against the spread coming off a loss, but four to

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Speaker 3: zero against the spread coming off to a loss when

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Speaker 3: the line is minus more than a touchdown, so as

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Speaker 3: a seven and a half point favorite or more off

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Speaker 3: a loss, Mike Zimmer's teams don't kind of fail to

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Speaker 3: cover the number and kind of play down. They rebound

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Speaker 3: even in these spots and cover these big numbers. So

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Speaker 3: I like it from that angle, but just it's a

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Speaker 3: brutal spot for Detroit. Here you have, first of all,

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Speaker 3: Minnesota is eighth in pressure rate on defense, Jared Goff

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Speaker 3: is twenty seventh with a fifty six point eight passer

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Speaker 3: rating under pressure. And then the injuries for Detroit. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Detroit's already we do. They were missing some corners, which

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Speaker 3: is never good against Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. And

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Speaker 3: by the way, Detroit's allowing sixteen yards for completion, which

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Speaker 3: is absurd. But Detroit is gonna be without top offensive

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Speaker 3: lineman Frank Ragnow. He was grading out ninety plus in

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Speaker 3: terms of PFF grade, second of thirty three qualified centers.

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Speaker 3: And you're also gonna be without your top pass rusher,

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Speaker 3: Romeo Okuara, who had a team leeting sixteen total pressures.

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Speaker 3: So this was already gonna be a tough spot for

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Speaker 3: Detroit just based on the talent disparity, based on you know,

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Speaker 3: Zimmer coming off the loss. But you lose your center,

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Speaker 3: not even in not just your top alignment. We know

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Speaker 3: Deckers already, you know out, but you lose your center.

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Speaker 3: We saw the issues that Jared Goff was having last

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Speaker 3: week with the snap and you lose your top pass

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Speaker 3: rusher and you're giving up sixteen yards per completion, and

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Speaker 3: you have a desperate Minnesota team, you know, who's historically

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Speaker 3: played extremely well coming off a loss. I just think

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Speaker 3: this is a smash spot for Minnesota. I don't usually

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Speaker 3: take these big numbers, but I just love it for

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Speaker 3: Minnesota in a spot. So Minnesota minus nine at home

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Speaker 3: against the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. The flowers has been limited to but

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Speaker 2: the lines were We give into this year very down

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Speaker 2: on the lines for obvious reasons. Look at their roster.

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Speaker 2: The one thing we said that was good about them

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Speaker 2: was their offensive line. They were projected to have one

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Speaker 2: of the best offensive lines in the Elite. But you

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Speaker 2: don't have Taylor Decker your top left tackle. Now your

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Speaker 2: Pro Bowl center rag Now is out with Turfto, and

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Speaker 2: now their first round draft picks school might be out

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Speaker 2: as well. The other tackle edition. I mean this offense

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Speaker 2: didn't see that oh wow, yeah yeah. So their offensive

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Speaker 2: line is just in shambles right now, and the Minnesota

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Speaker 2: front seven has played better of late. I liked what

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Speaker 2: I saw last week against the Browns. Hockinson didn't practice

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Speaker 2: either today for the Lions, so you know, and if

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Speaker 2: you look at their secondary, it's just depleted. This is

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Speaker 2: such a get right game for the Vikings, who have

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Speaker 2: played the hardest schedule in the NFL per opposing records

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals, the Bengals, the Browns, and the Seahawks. So

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Speaker 2: their receivers should eat against the Lions putrid secondary, I mean,

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Speaker 2: Jefferson and Dealing should be up in all day, especially

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Speaker 2: if the lines don't get any pressure whatsoever. And here's

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Speaker 2: you want to talk about regression. The lines I think

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Speaker 2: have the worst defense in the NFL, to even worse

396
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Speaker 2: than the Chiefs. They're dead last and EPA per play

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Speaker 2: on early downs, their second in the lines are second

398
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Speaker 2: in the NFL and third down conversion percentage on defense,

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Speaker 2: so theres you can expect that regression likely to hit

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Speaker 2: this week with the Vikings just keeping the chains moving

401
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Speaker 2: all day long. So yeah, I agree with you. I

402
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Speaker 2: think it's Vikings or nothing here. I personally tease the

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Speaker 2: Vikings down, which we'll get to in our teaser segment

404
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Speaker 2: a bit.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just like, how do you give up sixteen

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Speaker 3: yards per completion? And it should have been more? Because

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Speaker 3: how many yards did Marquis Brown drop? Like, what was

408
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Speaker 3: the average completion every touch dropped? It would have probably

409
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Speaker 3: been seventeen seventeen and a half has he had he

410
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Speaker 3: caught those balls? I don't like. That just breaks my model.

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Speaker 3: I don't even know how to account for a defense

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Speaker 3: that gives up sixteen yards per completion. And by the way,

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Speaker 3: the thirty some run Dvoa Dalvin Cook has been slowed

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Speaker 3: in a couple of the Vikings losses. You know, just

415
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Speaker 3: twenty nine carries for ninety five yards in Week one

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Speaker 3: and four combined two games that they lost. I know

417
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Speaker 3: they also lost a game they should have won in

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Speaker 3: between that, but yeah, this is not the type of

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Speaker 3: run defense that can slowed him down either. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm not my usual style pick here, but you know,

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Speaker 3: just playing the board and love the Vikens there, Where

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Speaker 3: are you going for your second one?

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Speaker 2: All right? For my second overall pick and third overall

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Speaker 2: of the Sunday six pack, I'm going with another underdog.

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Speaker 2: We're going with these San Francisco forty nine ers plus

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Speaker 2: five and a half at that MGM at the Arizona Cardinals, who,

427
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Speaker 2: by the way, this was a home game for the

428
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Speaker 2: forty nine ers at the end of last year, so

429
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Speaker 2: obviously some familiarity there. But this is Look, we're getting

430
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Speaker 2: the fade Cliff, which I always love. The perception change

431
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Speaker 2: on these two teams over the past two weeks has

432
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 2: been enormous. I mean I heard I think got tweeted

433
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 2: out last week, like Scott Hansen on Red Zone was like,

434
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 2: are the Cardinals the best team in the NFL? Are

435
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: the Cardinals gonna win the Super Bowl? That's what the

436
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: talk is now because they have gotten off to a

437
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,880
Speaker 2: four and h start. But I mean, look, they played

438
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 2: the Titans in Week one. We were all I was

439
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 2: all over the Cardinals. Titans were in turmoil, like COVID

440
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 2: injury injuries, just I mean, I didn't take much from

441
00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 2: that game of the Cardinals. Then they beat the winless

442
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 2: Jags in a game they trail nineteen to ten at

443
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: the end of the third quarter, they get a pick

444
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 2: on a Fulle flicker and then they moved to three

445
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 2: and by beating the vikingscause the Vikings mister field goal,

446
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: and then they have one dominant performance over the Rams,

447
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, it's Super Bowl for the Cardinals. Look,

448
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 2: I got to give credit to Kyler Murray's playing really well.

449
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 2: He's only the third quarterback ever with a four and

450
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 2: zero record twelve hundred plus yards passing in a seventy

451
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 2: five percent plus completion percentage. Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson

452
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: the only other two to do that. By the way,

453
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 2: when russ and Peyton did that and got off the

454
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 2: four and it starts, neither of them covered in week five,

455
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 2: for what it's worth. So look, all of a sudden,

456
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 2: just this massive shift in how good people are perceiving

457
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 2: this Arizona team to be. If a couple of those

458
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 2: games go the other way and they could have lost

459
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 2: to the Jacks, Jacks, they could have lost easily to

460
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 2: the Vikings. I mean, this line is just way out

461
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 2: of whack for me. I just I think that it

462
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: should be a field goal. Max and the forty nine ers. Look,

463
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 2: they started out two and zero everyone was saying they're

464
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: going to the super Bowl, and now two weeks later,

465
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 2: they dealt with a lot of injuries. They lost to

466
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: the Packers and Seahawks by a combined nine points. It's

467
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: over for them. They're done. So, I mean, it's just

468
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 2: crazy that the shift and what has happened with these

469
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 2: two teams just in two weeks. So I'll gladly take

470
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 2: the valuer. You haven't seen this come across the app yet.

471
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: Maybe you will by the time you're listening to this.

472
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 2: But I'm just waiting to see if we get a six.

473
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: I mean, it's at a dead five and a half yet,

474
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 2: see if we can get a six. If not, I'll

475
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 2: take the gladly take the five and a half. Really

476
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 2: down to the four and a half, don't we don't

477
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: like Shannonan as a favorite in this podcast. Shannonan is

478
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 2: a favorite eight twenty and one against the spread his

479
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: career twenty eight point six percent. That's a negative forty

480
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 2: two percent ROI as a dog twenty three and sixteen,

481
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: fifty nine percent, fifteen percent ROI sixteen and nine away

482
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 2: from home, sixty four percent, covering by just under four

483
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: points per game. I don't think Jimmy G's gonna play.

484
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 2: There's been some positive news with him this week, but

485
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 2: I don't think they rush him back. Trent Williams and

486
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: George Kittle didn't practice today. There's been some more positive

487
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 2: news on Trent Williams. Those are injuries to watch, and

488
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: I think both will play. I don't know how effective

489
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: they'll be, but I think I think Kittle will give

490
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,680
Speaker 2: it a go again. You're gonna Trey Lance practicing all

491
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 2: week and this San Fran and Kyle Shannan is gonna

492
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 2: come up with a game plan to just gash, gash,

493
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 2: gash gash this Arizona run defense, which has not been good.

494
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 2: They have not solved any of their issues in the

495
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 2: run defense. It's you know, their twenty fifth and adjusted lineyards,

496
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: they're twenty seventh and ten plus yard rushes allowed, they're

497
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 2: dead last and percentage of runs allowed over five yards.

498
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 2: Their defensive linemen and their linebackers are really just struggling

499
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: to defend the run. So I think they can exploit

500
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 2: some of the aggressiveness of their rushers and the offensive

501
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: line should just get an enormous push up front, especially

502
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 2: the interior. Lots of design Trey Lance runs. You're gonna

503
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 2: have him practicing with the ones all week. Little element

504
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 2: of surprise there, so you know, I think that the

505
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 2: forty nine ers are basically just gonna run all over

506
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 2: this Arizona team. They've also on the defensi side, they

507
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 2: have some injuries, especially in the secondary worth keeping an

508
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: eye on. You would hope that, you know, Kewan Williams plays,

509
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 2: but they've done a good job in the past bottling

510
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 2: up Kyler Murray and gets some edge pressure. I think

511
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers will have a really good chance

512
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: to win this game. I think they're gonna have a

513
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: ton of success running the ball, and I think Lance

514
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 2: will be a big part of that. So give me

515
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers as an underdog against Cliff who

516
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 2: I love fading as a favorite. Not really a big

517
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 2: home field advantage here either, Like I said, they already

518
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: played played here at the end of last year division opponent.

519
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,719
Speaker 2: It's not far to travel, so I mean the homefield

520
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: advantage is negligible. It's not a great home home field crowd,

521
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 2: So give me the forty nine ers. I think this

522
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: line is way out of black.

523
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 3: I love the spot for the forty nine ers. You know,

524
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 3: I totally agree. That's pretty much how I played the

525
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. When I bet them, I fade them

526
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 3: as a favorite. I look for the value, you know,

527
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 3: when they inevitably shit the bed as a favorite, and

528
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 3: then as an underdog, Kyle Shanahan games them up something

529
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 3: mean and they end up covering on, you know, as

530
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 3: an underdog. The one thing that well, not the one thing,

531
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 3: but the kind of variables at play that kind of

532
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 3: scare me is just the health of Jimmy g and

533
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 3: Trent Williams, in particular, because I think that Williams is

534
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 3: just an important part of their old line obviously, but

535
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 3: Trey Lance it also worries me if he's going to

536
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 3: have to start. I know, I do think he'll be

537
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 3: better with the week of practice, obviously, but I also

538
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 3: think there's a reason why he wasn't playing more, and

539
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 3: it's because of his throwing ability. He was lucky to

540
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 3: get to both touchdowns to Deebo. Samuel one didn't really

541
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 3: have a good throw, but Deebo was so wide open

542
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: that he you know it's gonna happen against Seattle. And

543
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 3: then the second one, Deebo really fought for that for

544
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 3: that end zone, so I'm just worried if this Cardinal

545
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 3: team is able to put up points, you know, because

546
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 3: it kind of reminds me of the Ravens, where you

547
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 3: don't want this team playing from behind, and the Cardinals

548
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 3: are a team that could make you play from behind.

549
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 3: So that's why I can't really cap it at this point.

550
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,200
Speaker 3: If we knew Jimmy g was gonna play and Trent

551
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 3: Williams was gonna play, then I'd be all in on

552
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,719
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers. But right now, I'm kind of

553
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,400
Speaker 3: in line with the markets. I'm just kind of waiting

554
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 3: for for some more injury news. But I agree. I

555
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 3: think the spot is great. It's just I worry about

556
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:08,959
Speaker 3: some some specific matchups in this one.

557
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Cardinals. There's also some if you're looking for

558
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,360
Speaker 2: some regression Cardinals. Look at the turnover differential between these

559
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: two teams and Cardinals number one in the NFL by

560
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 2: a wide margin. In special teams, hidden points, things out

561
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 2: of their control, you know, field goals, opponent punts, things

562
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 2: of that nature. Where are you going for your second pick? Right?

563
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 3: For my second pick and the fourth overall pick of

564
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,199
Speaker 3: the week five Sunday six pack, I am going with

565
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 3: the new York Giants plus seven at the Dallas Cowboys

566
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 3: at bet MGM. And for me, this is another one

567
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 3: of those spots where we fade the Giants at home.

568
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 3: You know, they usually they usually play bad at home.

569
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 3: Now they have two straight road games, so I kind

570
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 3: of wish they wouldn't have. I mean, it was good

571
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: for you because they covered the spot last week, but

572
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 3: I kind of wish they wouldn't have had that lucky

573
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: string of events, you know, kind of transpire weight in

574
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 3: that game that allowed them to knot it up and

575
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 3: eventually win, because I think we would have gotten even

576
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 3: the better number, maybe seven in the hook here. But

577
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 3: first of all, you have Daniel Jones, who I think

578
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 3: is playing a lot better than he was earlier in

579
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: his career. He's eleven and four against the spread on

580
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: the road, seventy three percent ten and two against the

581
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 3: spread as a road underdog. He's covered eighty three percent

582
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 3: of his twelve starts as a road underdog. And there

583
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: are some things that are kind of giving me some

584
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 3: optimism about the Giants at least covering big numbers. Number One,

585
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 3: you look at the Giants and the thing I worried about,

586
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: I know you worried about it is their offensive line.

587
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 3: How is it gonna hold up? You know, especially they've

588
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 3: been dealing with some injuries to the interior line. Well,

589
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 3: the Giants, they've struggled in to run block, and we've

590
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 3: seen that with Saquon Barkley. You know, he always seems

591
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 3: to end up with rushing totals in the fifties, but

592
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 3: their thirteenth in pass blocking efficiency. They've been able to

593
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 3: hold up for the most part in past protection, and

594
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: that is extremely important for a young quarterback like Daniel Jones,

595
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 3: because you saw it last week, even with not as

596
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 3: many weapons as you would have liked him to have,

597
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 3: he still threw for four hundred yards against a defense

598
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 3: that has been really good for the last couple of

599
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 3: years against the run, hand to pass, and you know

600
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 3: he was able to shred them. They were able to

601
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: get a ton of exposed to plays. So I looked

602
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 3: at Jones' numbers this year from a clean pocket nine

603
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 3: point one yards per attempt from a clean pocket under

604
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 3: six under pressure. But Dallas is twenty fourth and pressure rate,

605
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 3: and the Giants are above average in pass blocking efficiency

606
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 3: according to Pro Football Focus, So this is not one

607
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: of those situations where you're you know, completely shell shocked

608
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: of playing the Giants because they're going to get outmatched

609
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 3: on offense. Daniel Jones really hasn't been turning the ball over.

610
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 3: Even the interception he threw last week that was kind

611
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 3: of a hail Mary type of situation. So I also

612
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 3: think maybe Jason Garrett finally saw that Kurt Warner video

613
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 3: because last week, all of a sudden, the Giant started

614
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 3: getting yards aft to catch, Guys started catching the ball

615
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 3: on the move. Everything wasn't come back to the ball.

616
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones was hitting guys in stride, which you know,

617
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 3: I think that can that's obviously part scheme too. I

618
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 3: think he's got to get better at that, but he

619
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: was doing it last week against a really good defense.

620
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 3: So I've seen what I wanted to see out of

621
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 3: the Giants improvement wise. This is not a knock on

622
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 3: Dallas or a fade on Dallas, who I still think

623
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 3: is an excellent team, you know, in the long term.

624
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: But remember the Giants played him close last year in

625
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: the game with Dak, then Dak gets hurt, still a

626
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 3: close game in that one, and then they win in

627
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 3: the game when Dak was injured late in the year,

628
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 3: So the divisional game, there's some familiarity here. I think

629
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 3: this one just stays tighter than the number indicates, and

630
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 3: that's been kind of story with Daniel Jones, and there

631
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 3: are some positive things happening with this offense. Maybe those

632
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 3: maybe having some of these speed guys like Tony and

633
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 3: Ross and being forced to use them has kind of

634
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 3: altered Garrett's play calling for the better a little bit almost,

635
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 3: because you know, the Giants offense wasn't a particularly explosive

636
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 3: offense really ever, but they got Barkley, they got Tony,

637
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 3: they got Ross, and they're kind of forced to use

638
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 3: these guys and Glladay's really the one kind of bigger

639
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 3: guy that that Garretts maybe used to But I like

640
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 3: what I'm seeing out of the Giants, So taking him

641
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 3: plus seven at the Dallas Cowboys.

642
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree here. I think the line is

643
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 2: a little high. One of the biggest surprises the NFL

644
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: for me this year has been Andrew Thomas, the Giants

645
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 2: left tackle. He's not allowed to stack this year and

646
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 2: he's only allowed six pressures in four games. Last year

647
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: that was eighteen through the first four games, so he's

648
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 2: been great on the left side, and I think it's

649
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: really helped stabilize an offensive line. It's just dealing a

650
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 2: lot of injuries and just not great overall. The problem

651
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: is he didn't practice today, so that's something to keep

652
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,239
Speaker 2: an eye on. Whether the injury is serious or not,

653
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 2: we'll see, but he was hobbling out there, so we'll see.

654
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: If he plays, it would be a huge loss. Think

655
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 2: you can get Matt Pert instead. You know, Peppers has

656
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 2: a hamstring injury. Leonard Williams didn't practice again today. He's

657
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 2: big in the interior that defense. And then obviously you

658
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: have Slayton and Shephard Dallad's a little bit now. So

659
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: the injuries are a little concerning to me. But this

660
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: fits the multi. The Giants is always this is their spot.

661
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: I mean, Danny dimes eleven and four against the spread

662
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: on the road, four and eleven against the spread at home.

663
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: The Cowboys, you know, just some of the what scares

664
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: me a little bit here. I mean, I mean the

665
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 2: some of the Cowboys offensive numbers are so impressive. I

666
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 2: mean their offensive line, even without Collins, I mean, steels

667
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 2: a great run blocker, struggles a little bit in pass protection,

668
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 2: but their offensive line number one in the adjusted lineyards.

669
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 2: The Cowboys fifty eight percent rush success rate on early downs.

670
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: No one else is over fifty. And then also the

671
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 2: Cowboys and Chiefs are the only teams over sixty percent

672
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 2: when they drop back in success rate on early downs.

673
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: So I mean this team is just setting itself up

674
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: for success on early downs and just a really tough

675
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 2: offense to stop. Dak is just playing at another level.

676
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 2: The Giants are going to get much pressure. They're thirty

677
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: first and pass rush win rate, So can Dak just cook?

678
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 2: The one thing one injury that could really help the

679
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: Giants is Amari Cooper, who didn't practice today. So if

680
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,399
Speaker 2: he doesn't go, it makes them, you know, with Galbardi out,

681
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 2: it makes them a lot easier to defend. Zeke didn't

682
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 2: practice either, but he's expected to go now. Maybe there's

683
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 2: some regression coming for this Cowboys defense, which would help

684
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 2: you as a Giants packer. They're only like either eighteenth

685
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,760
Speaker 2: and success rate, you know, all of their it's basically

686
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: an average grades out like an average defense. But they

687
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: have ten takeaways in four games. They're just making a

688
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 2: lot of big plays. You have to give Dan quint

689
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 2: some credit. He's you know, his scheme has evolved a bit.

690
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 2: Parsons and Diggs are just two phenomenal young players.

691
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:46,879
Speaker 3: Even my favorite corner in the league right now.

692
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 2: I think he's there. Now here's a stat for you.

693
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 2: Remember Byron Jones is still a pretty good corner. But

694
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: the Cowboys used to be on the Cowboys. Byron Jones

695
00:34:55,320 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 2: four interceptions in his career in ninety seven games. Diggs

696
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: has five interceptions in four games this year. He has

697
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: more interceptions this year than Byron Jones has in ninety

698
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 2: seven career games. Diggs also has eight interceptions and sixteen

699
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 2: career games. So he's just a playmaker. But can they

700
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,760
Speaker 2: keep getting these turnovers? That's gonna be the question. Well, Garrett,

701
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: Garrett's play gong from week to week. You just never

702
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 2: know what you're gonna get. But ultimately, don't disagree with

703
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,799
Speaker 2: the play at seven in a division game. I make

704
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,720
Speaker 2: it a little less and think that's where the value

705
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 2: is and it is just a giant spot. I don't

706
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,720
Speaker 2: disagree with your play here, all right. For my final

707
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 2: pick of the Sunday six pack and fifth overall, I'm

708
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 2: going with the Cincinnati Bungles plus three at bet MGM

709
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 2: at home against the Green Bay Packers. Again, you have

710
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: not seen this play come across the app because I'm

711
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,520
Speaker 2: trying to wait to read the mare to see if

712
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: you can get the hook. I don't think it's coming.

713
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: But look, I've already had a lot of messages about

714
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 2: this game, like the Packers are only laying three at

715
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 2: the Bengals. I mean, Aaron Rodgers only length three points.

716
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 2: It's supposed to be a dream come true number one.

717
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 2: That's usually a bad sign in the NFL when everyone

718
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,319
Speaker 2: loves one side. I'm sure the Packers will be one

719
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 2: of the biggest bet sides of the weekend. Now, sometimes

720
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: those do hit, but more oftentimes they don't. But that

721
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 2: has nothing to do with my handicap here. One thing

722
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 2: to note, Bengals do have extra prep, extra rest. They

723
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 2: played on Thursday at home, and they'll be at home again.

724
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 2: Here Joe Mixon is questionable day to day, and actually

725
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 2: he doesn't go. Who cares if he does play, I

726
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 2: take love success from the ball, but if he doesn't,

727
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 2: Zach Tayler actually throws the ball more here. Awesome for

728
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 2: a bet, especially with Higgins, who should be back this

729
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 2: weekend as well. The secondary looks a bit healthier. Also,

730
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: this is really just a handicap on the Packers defense

731
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: is in absolute shambles. I mean, first of all, it's

732
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 2: been a bad defense all year long. I mean, they

733
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 2: played an awful Steelers team, a Steelers team that just

734
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 2: was missing wide open touchdowns, were completing two yard passes

735
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: on fourth and three, and then you know they played

736
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 2: the Lions and then they got shredded by Jamis destroyed.

737
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: You know, Jimmy g Will put up basically thirty on them.

738
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,400
Speaker 2: So the defense has been bad and now it is

739
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 2: just a disaster. I mean, you have Zadarius Smith is out,

740
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 2: I hoping he's not out for the year. Preston Smith

741
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: has banged up, jyr Alexander is most likely going to

742
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 2: be out this week, probably for a couple of weeks,

743
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 2: and he I think is the most important player on

744
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: defense to his team in the NFL. You have you know,

745
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 2: Ramsey is right up there. Ever, nobody has Donald. You

746
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: have Donald like so you could argue any of these players,

747
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 2: but what Alexander allows the Packers to do defensively and

748
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 2: him just being an absolute lockdown corner on a team

749
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 2: that doesn't have good corners, is just massive, and you

750
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 2: take him out of that corner group and now you're

751
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 2: hoping Kevin King plays all of a sudden in his back.

752
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: I mean, that's as bad as you get. Kevin King

753
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 2: and a rookie on the outside against Burrow and these

754
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 2: receivers and the defense that is not getting pressure. I mean,

755
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 2: the Bengals offense should eat. The only person that can

756
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:25,399
Speaker 2: stop this Bengals offense on Sunday is Zach Taylor. That's it.

757
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:28,439
Speaker 2: On top of that, the Packers offensive line has in

758
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 2: injuries back toar He's already out, Alton Jenkins isn't practicing,

759
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 2: Josh Myers didn't practice today, So the offensive line is

760
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 2: a mess. Something else to keep in mind here is

761
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 2: these are two slower teams overall. You know, the total

762
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: is up near fifty one. I lean over here, but

763
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 2: if either one of these teams is trailing at the

764
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: half by like ten or more, or trailing early, look

765
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 2: for a live over here, because both teams should be

766
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: able to move the ball in comeback mode. But yeah,

767
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 2: I love this matchup for the Bengals offense and the

768
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: Bengals defense has been respect enough here give me the

769
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 2: field goal here with mister Burrow.

770
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned the total because that actually

771
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 3: caught my attention as well. One of the things I

772
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: like to do is, you know, again, I think we're

773
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 3: both not really like trends better, but I like to

774
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 3: like kind of pay attention to trends to see, you know,

775
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 3: as number one is just gut checks to see if

776
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 3: I'm going to make any mistakes with the way I'm leading,

777
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 3: but number two, sometimes you just have these tells in

778
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: the market, and I think that's what you were alluding to.

779
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: And historically since two thousand and three, when you have

780
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 3: a total open a forty four or more and it

781
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 3: goes up at least three points, the underdog is fifty

782
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 3: nine and thirty two against the spread sixty five percent.

783
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 3: So that just kind of speaks to what you're talking

784
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 3: about here, where this is a pretty high total for

785
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 3: two of the slowest paced teams in the league. The

786
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 3: Bengals have been extremely run heavy, as you pointed out,

787
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,720
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is a great passing game matchup because

788
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 3: the Packers are number seven in DVOA against number one

789
00:39:56,520 --> 00:40:01,680
Speaker 3: wide receivers. That's that's Jaya Alexander work right there. Now.

790
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 3: They are thirty first against number two receivers. Now, whether now.

791
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 2: You're gonna slide your two to your one and then

792
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 2: you're and then it's just this trickle. And then if

793
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 2: Bengals don't have a one, really it's just many really

794
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 2: good receivers with Higgins back. I mean, it's it's a

795
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 2: I think a disastrous matchup without Alexander.

796
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 3: Somebody's gonna be opening that that doesn't even begin. It's

797
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,759
Speaker 3: you know, speak on the fact that Tyra Boyd, one

798
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 3: of the better slot receivers in this league, is gonna

799
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 3: be going against what's normally the weakest link for the

800
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 3: Packers anyway, because they they'll usually help the other outside

801
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 3: corner because they can with Alexander, you know, kind of

802
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 3: locking down on one side. So you're gonna probably get

803
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 3: you know, Chandon Sullivan on Tyler Boyd or you know,

804
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 3: linebacker on board or whatever they try to do here.

805
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a good matchup in the past game

806
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 3: for the Bengals. I mean, and if mixing is out,

807
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 3: I like p Ryan and fantasy for anyone that cares.

808
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 3: So I don't disagree with this one at all. I

809
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 3: make this I think it's I didn't make this like one,

810
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 3: like one and a half or two for my third

811
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 3: pick and the sixth overall pick a Sunday six pack.

812
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 3: We're getting ugly here. Pittsburgh steel World, Pittsburgh Steelers minus

813
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: one against the Denver Broncos. I'm holding my nose as

814
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 3: I say it. You know, I thought you had the

815
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: right play last week with the Steelers. I played it

816
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:19,240
Speaker 3: as well. It turned out not to hit the Steers.

817
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 3: Could have could have had that cover last week, maybe

818
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,960
Speaker 3: even the game. You know what they dropped. They just

819
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 3: missed an eighty yard touchdown to Juju, just missed another touchdown.

820
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 3: They got a what was it a return for a

821
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 3: touchdown on special teams overturned.

822
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: That was a cool, very questionable return. Yeah, yeah, four

823
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 2: fourth and shorts. They just throw it one yard too.

824
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 2: That ended drives Like just they came out well, I

825
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 2: wanted them to come out desper Tomlin Mo. They scored

826
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 2: a touchdown right away, they were energetic and then just

827
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 2: offensive failure.

828
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 3: When you have a team plus seven and they go

829
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:53,240
Speaker 3: up seven nothing, you're feeling very good about that bet.

830
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,879
Speaker 3: So you know, that was a disappointment, But I still

831
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 3: think the Steers are the right play this weekend. First

832
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 3: of all, it's not as much of a play on

833
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 3: the Steelers outside of the fact that you still do

834
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 3: have Mike tom win off the loss. He's still fifty

835
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 3: six percent against the spread off the loss. Uh, he's

836
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 3: still forty nine and twenty eight overall, straight up sixty

837
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 3: four percent on the money line off the loss. And

838
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 3: remember this is a one point spread, so all they

839
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: have to do is win this game. But it's really

840
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,959
Speaker 3: a sell on the Broncos, who I kind of pointed out.

841
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 3: You know a lot of big you know, big money

842
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 3: pros and guys who have been doing this a long

843
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:32,680
Speaker 3: time were on the Broncos last week against the Ravens.

844
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 3: I was on the Ravens last week. I just think

845
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 3: you have to sell high on this Broncos team that

846
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 3: beat the Giants, jetson Jaguars in their first three game.

847
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 3: You know, teams that they easily were, especially the Giants.

848
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 3: You know, coming into the year, Saquon was banged up.

849
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,840
Speaker 3: They know, Gad they said they would start slowing offense.

850
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 3: You know, they played them in Week one, so just

851
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 3: a very favorable schedule. They play their first real test

852
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 3: in Baltimore. The pressure gets to them Teddy Bridgewater get

853
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 3: is knocked out of the game. Now he's in the protocol,

854
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 3: and you know, there's still a good scheme defense. But

855
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 3: they looked a little more human against like a decent offense. Now,

856
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 3: this Pittsburgh offense, it's not gonna be pretty, but I

857
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 3: think they're still leaving some plays out on the field.

858
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 3: But I'm really just betting on this Pittsburgh defense and

859
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 3: selling on this Denver offense because Denver's offense was already

860
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 3: twenty seventh. You know, everyone's gonna look at Pittsburgh as

861
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 3: their bottom five in offensive success right on early downs.

862
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 3: No one's surprised about that. You know, they're not good,

863
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 3: but Denver's twenty seven, and Denver's outside the top twenty.

864
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 3: They're twenty fourth or worse in both past and run

865
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: success right on early downs. They're twenty seventh overall on

866
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,359
Speaker 3: early downs. So essentially Denver's offense has been just as

867
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 3: bad as Pittsburgh. The difference is they've played you know,

868
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 3: the defenses of the Jets and the Jaguars and the

869
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: Giants in the first three weeks. So I don't really

870
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 3: think this Denver offense can get anything going. Even if

871
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 3: Teddy plays, and yes, I know Teddy covers. That's another

872
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 3: reason everyone likes to Broncos in these short, short dog spots.

873
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 3: But the bottom line is Teddy on offense really hasn't

874
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 3: been great on early downs. Drew Lock would be even worse.

875
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: This Broncos offense banged up. You know, you talked about

876
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 3: it last week. You know you're missing Hamdler, you're missing

877
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,479
Speaker 3: Judy Gordon and Williams. It'll be decent on the ground,

878
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 3: but Pittsburgh's that's what Pittsburgh does, especially at home. They

879
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 3: snuff out the run game. You know, their top ten

880
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 3: in run defense. They're around three point seven yards per carry.

881
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 3: You know, kind of like you said last week on

882
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 3: the road, I think it happens at home. You just

883
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 3: get Pittsburgh coming out with their pants on fire. On defense.

884
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 3: Just think about Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock throwing to

885
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 3: this group of receivers on a third and long, third

886
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 3: and medium against this Pittsburgh home crowd. On defense, I

887
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 3: just I don't think there's many points in this game.

888
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 3: We'll get to that later, but I'm just taking I

889
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 3: just think Pittsburgh gets this win. They're not completely that

890
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 3: they could have won the game last week. They beat

891
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,919
Speaker 3: a great team in Buffalo on the road in Week one.

892
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 3: I know it's tough to pick the Steelers here, but

893
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 3: I still think they're the right poay going Steelers minus one, Yeah, I.

894
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 2: Think that's the spot. I don't think I can do it.

895
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I just it's a good Tomlin spot.

896
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 3: Bring game to day.

897
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 2: You ain't new to us no more, now, you know

898
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 2: what I mean, dominate this football game. But I think

899
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:14,879
Speaker 2: that Big Ben has he's so bad now that he's

900
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 2: making he's he's worse than how good the Tomlin spots are,

901
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 2: and he might make these Tomlin spots now unvettable. I mean, look,

902
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 2: you mentioned the early down failures. I mean the Steelers

903
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 2: they're rushed success straight on early downs eighteen percent. The

904
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 2: next worst in the league is Miami at twenty four percent.

905
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 2: Oh and they're also fourth worst in the league when

906
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 2: they drop back on early downs. So it's basically like

907
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 2: they have to sustain drives with short passes with a

908
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 2: quarterback who's washed up, and then they're gonna be a lot.

909
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 2: They're gonna be in third and long situations against this

910
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 2: Broncos defense, which is just a disaster. The offensive line

911
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 2: did Steel's offense lines is getting zero push whatsoever. I mean,

912
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 2: they're adjusted lineyards are like three. It's it's it's really bad.

913
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 2: And I to say it's this is crazy to say,

914
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: but Drew Lock will be the best quarterback on the

915
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 2: field on Sunday on the same field.

916
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 3: As that may not maybe, but when you factor in

917
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 3: the Steelers defense, I think it's that worse to push.

918
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 3: And I would actually think because Big Ben, I mean,

919
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 3: I get the ball up, He's gonna get the ball.

920
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 3: Lock is gonna Lock could do something like lock In

921
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 3: Big Ben are probably equally bad in different ways. It's

922
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 3: just that like Big Ben's gonna get the ball out

923
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:27,959
Speaker 3: and take like a two yard gain on third and five,

924
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:29,719
Speaker 3: But Drew Lock would throw like a pick six on

925
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: thirty five against the Steers d I don't think. I

926
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,879
Speaker 3: don't think Ben is going to be that much work

927
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:36,359
Speaker 3: like any worse than Drew Lock.

928
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 2: You're disrespecting the Broncos defense here.

929
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love the Bronco defense. John Harbaugh disrespects the

930
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 3: Broncos defense.

931
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:46,839
Speaker 5: Yeah, I thought it was kind of bullshit, but I

932
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 5: expected it from them, not me.

933
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 2: I'll take the bron I'll take the Broncos offensive line

934
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 2: too over the Steelers offensive line, and maybe you get

935
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 2: Clay Pool back, which will help. But I just can't

936
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 2: beat Ben right now. I mean just the the throws

937
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 2: that he's missing really really bad. So I think that

938
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 2: you have the right spot here. I'm not playing the Broncos.

939
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: I think this game goes under. It was like thirty

940
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 2: and a half, but there's no room for there's no

941
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: margin for air. But I think it's the right spot.

942
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 2: I just can't trust Ben right now.

943
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 3: I could. I completely understand your big Ben PTSD two

944
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 3: a halfened last week, but that is going to do it.

945
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 3: For our Week five Sunday six pack trecap, stuck going

946
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 3: with the Philadelphia Eagles plus three and a half, the

947
00:47:33,239 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 3: San Francisco forty nine Ers plus five and a half,

948
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 3: and the Cincinnati Bengals plus three. I'm going with the

949
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:43,240
Speaker 3: Minnesota Vikings minus nine, the New York Giants plus seven,

950
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,879
Speaker 3: and the Pittsburgh Steelers minus one. Now it is time

951
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 3: for our Week five coaches pep talk. It seems like

952
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 3: every week we dedicate these things to Urban Meyer, so

953
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 3: I think it's only right that this week we dedicate

954
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 3: the pep talk to urban Meyer this week, and it's

955
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 3: juvenile back that ass up. Oh wait, no, it's okay,

956
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 3: it's not that. It's al Pacino from the nineteen ninety

957
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 3: film Dick Tracy. We are dedicating it to Erbert Meyer.

958
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 2: Doesn't go work, mean anything to animal? Have you no

959
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 2: sense of pride in what you do? No sense at donate,

960
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 2: no sense On yesterday, I'm looking set off?

961
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 4: What do I?

962
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 3: God, what's this fuck? I mean, I don't know. I

963
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 3: still think it should be juvenile back that ass of

964
00:48:26,880 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 3: I mean, did you see erber Do you see the

965
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 3: second video? I love when there's like there's like a

966
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 3: video comes out and then somebody has to explain it

967
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:36,040
Speaker 3: away and they give one explanation and then like another

968
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 3: video comes out completely negating the first explanation. Like this dude,

969
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 3: ierber Meyer is a trip. I said. I said this to.

970
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty one man. You can't yet a bar. Someone's

971
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: taking something.

972
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 3: Rh I remember saying to Kerner. I was like, yo,

973
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 3: Erban Meyers, I think it was plus five thousand to

974
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 3: be first coach fired. I was like, that's the greatest

975
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 3: bet I've ever seen, because this dude is literally the

976
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 3: most cancelable coach in the NFL, and it seems like

977
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 3: every week he's proven me right in some way, shape

978
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 3: or form. I mean, I don't listen. I don't know, Like,

979
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 3: how do you feel about him not flying back with

980
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 3: the team he wanted.

981
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 2: To see his family? I mean it was where the

982
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:12,399
Speaker 2: state that he was in.

983
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 3: Our family doesn't usually back it up on me though,

984
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 3: so you know it is what it is. Urban you

985
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 3: keep giving us entertainment. That's our coaches, Pep Tuck. Let's

986
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:23,959
Speaker 3: get into our favorite total of the week. All right, Stuck,

987
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 3: you went first with a six pack. I will lead

988
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 3: it off with the total you alluded to it. I've

989
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 3: got the first half year Denver Pittsburgh under thinking of

990
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 3: playing the full game as well, but like you said,

991
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 3: could be some some weird things happening. I wait in

992
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 3: the game, but I think early on is where I

993
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 3: really expect a low scoring game because you look at

994
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 3: these two teams, Pittsburgh thirtieth in first half pace aka

995
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 3: first half seconds per play and Denver twenty fifth. So

996
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 3: you have two teams twenty fifth or lower in first

997
00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 3: half pace. Pittsburgh speeds it up a lot in the

998
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 3: second half because you know they have been trailing, you know,

999
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 3: hopefully they're not in this one. But Pittsburgh's averaging just

1000
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:05,760
Speaker 3: six points per game in the first half. Denver's averaging

1001
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 3: just eleven. Here's a crazy stat for you if you're

1002
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:13,319
Speaker 3: into trends. Denver first half unders on the road, so

1003
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:15,439
Speaker 3: when they're not in Mile High, because usually expect teams

1004
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 3: to struggle in Miiole High. You know with Denver, Denver

1005
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 3: usually has more defensive oriented than not But first half

1006
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 3: unders on the road under Big Fangio fifteen and three

1007
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 3: eighty three percent for Denver. So I love the first

1008
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 3: half under twenty. I would play it down in nineteen

1009
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:38,800
Speaker 3: eighteen is not really a key number, but you know, no,

1010
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 3: maybe you give a ten to nine score or something.

1011
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 3: So I would still kind of go to no lower

1012
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 3: than nineteen, but love the first half under twenty at

1013
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 3: bet MGM for Denver Pittsburgh.

1014
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, you just need to avoid mistakes and like a

1015
00:50:54,440 --> 00:50:55,800
Speaker 2: turnover or something to Flukeia.

1016
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 4: I don't.

1017
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 2: I don't mind that play at all. For my favorite total,

1018
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 2: I am going with let's go to London for an

1019
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:07,799
Speaker 2: early Sunday morning that let's got the Falcons Jets over

1020
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 2: forty six. Again, I haven't put this in the app yet.

1021
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 2: I'm waiting to see and you know, it's Falcons and Jets,

1022
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 2: so people gonna say, let's bet the under. Maybe I

1023
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 2: get a forty five. So I'm waiting to see where

1024
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 2: the market goes with this, but I will be on

1025
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:24,359
Speaker 2: the over regardless. I tried. First of all, I try

1026
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 2: to look to see if there's any real advantage for

1027
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 2: you these teams traveling to London and something that you

1028
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:29,720
Speaker 2: really should look at each time there's one of these games.

1029
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 2: And by the way, Port let's apologize to London this

1030
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 2: is the game and give them Falcons Jets. Next week

1031
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 2: we give them Jags Dolphins. That's the two Monday egs

1032
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:42,359
Speaker 2: this week just brutal. But I couldn't find any real

1033
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 2: advantage here. Both teams are leaving Thursday after practice, which

1034
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 2: I think makes sense. Both staffs have some experience traveling

1035
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 2: to London when they were with other teams as assistants.

1036
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan went in twenty fourteen, so I couldn't really

1037
00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 2: find any big edge for who has the advantage here.

1038
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 2: The Falcons have been nothing short of a disaster to

1039
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 2: start the year. I mean they're thirty second, DVA and

1040
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 2: special teams, thirty second overall, worst team in the NFL,

1041
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:16,919
Speaker 2: thirty fast offense, yeah, thirty first on offense, twenty ninth

1042
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 2: on defense. Lots of issues the Jets. You know, they

1043
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:23,400
Speaker 2: had a brutal schedule. The rookie quarterback. They looked a

1044
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 2: little better last week, but look, they played an awful

1045
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 2: Tennessee defense and they you know, we're playing a Tennessee

1046
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: offense that was without their two best receivers. But the

1047
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 2: Jets offense, look, Wilson looked a little more comfortable. I

1048
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 2: think a look a little more comfortable here against the

1049
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:44,320
Speaker 2: Falcons defense that's terrible and it doesn't really get pressure.

1050
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:46,239
Speaker 2: He's got Crowder back, which helped a ton. I was

1051
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 2: hoping the crowd are played for our Jets, bets for

1052
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:52,040
Speaker 2: a Jets bet, and he did. He also might get

1053
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,760
Speaker 2: Elijah Moore back. I think he's gonna play this week.

1054
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 2: So you know, he got a little bit lucky on

1055
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:58,400
Speaker 2: some throws, but he just looked a lot more comfortable.

1056
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:00,600
Speaker 2: Was making throws, is going to throw it downfield, and

1057
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,920
Speaker 2: this Atlanta defense is just awful. The Jets defense is

1058
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 2: also awful. I mean there's now there's injuries in the secondary,

1059
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 2: there's injuries a linebacker. It's a mess. They're number four

1060
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:14,800
Speaker 2: in the NFL and red zone touchdown percentage on defense,

1061
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 2: number four on third down defense. Can you say regression

1062
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 2: coming for this Jets defense? By the way, they're fourth

1063
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 2: worst on offense, so you know you can get some regression.

1064
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 2: Both Wladies and Jets can get some touchdowns on the

1065
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:27,919
Speaker 2: red zone. They're probably gonna get up some touchdowns against

1066
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 2: an Atlanta team. The one thing I can say about them

1067
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 2: is they do look a little better in the red

1068
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:35,360
Speaker 2: zone under Arthur Smith. So I think this is a

1069
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 2: get right game for the Atlanta offense. I think London

1070
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 2: will get some some points here. Could be a more

1071
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 2: entertaining game than people are thinking.

1072
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 3: I mean, let's be honest, corder Aero Patterson is going

1073
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 3: to go over this all by himself. It's gonna be

1074
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 3: cord Aero Patterson forty seven and the rest of the

1075
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,919
Speaker 3: teams whatever. It's like, this dude is unstoppable. I don't

1076
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 3: know if that's an indictment on Arthur Smith or like

1077
00:53:57,400 --> 00:53:59,480
Speaker 3: that he's the biggest genius ever. The fact that Cordell

1078
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:02,760
Speaker 3: Patterson has five of their nine offensive touchdowns. Oh, Bettan

1079
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 3: and Kyle, you got a three touchdown game.

1080
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 2: Julio Jones never had one of those. Wow in Atlanta.

1081
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't disagree with this one. To recap, I'm

1082
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 3: going Denver Pittsburgh first half under twenty stucky going Jets

1083
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 3: Atlanta over forty six.

1084
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:23,200
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1110
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1112
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 5: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to.

1113
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 3: The show nowadays. Time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1114
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, six point teasers change.

1115
00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 3: Don't tease me please all right? For those unfamiliar, a

1116
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 3: teaser is when you make a number of bets two

1117
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 3: or more, and you get an allocation of points usually

1118
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 3: six points that help each of the bet if they

1119
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 3: both hit you in your bets. So, for example, if

1120
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:37,000
Speaker 3: you teased a eight point favorite six points, they would

1121
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:40,239
Speaker 3: become a two point favorite, they just have to cover

1122
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 3: the spread of two. And if you tease an eight

1123
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:46,319
Speaker 3: point underdog, they would become a fourteen point underdog. So

1124
00:56:47,080 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 3: that's the standard six point teaser that we use here.

1125
00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 3: Usually you pay minus one twenty four it, but there

1126
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 3: are some advantages. Stuck, he has a piece out on

1127
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 3: Action Network or you can google Stucky Teasers and he

1128
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 3: talks about want teasers and teasing through all of the

1129
00:57:01,560 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 3: key numbers and all that good stuff. So definitely worth

1130
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 3: checking out if you want to get more in depth

1131
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,239
Speaker 3: with it. But Stuck, where are you going for your

1132
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 3: teaser for Week five?

1133
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going with the Vikings. The line is rising,

1134
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 2: so try and get up before it gets to nine

1135
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 2: one and a half everywhere. But Vikings minus two and

1136
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:24,160
Speaker 2: a half and the which we already talked about earlier

1137
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 2: just could get right spot here for Minnesota. And I'm

1138
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 2: gonna go with the Browns teasing them up over a touchdown.

1139
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 2: And look, I gotta give credit to the Browns defense.

1140
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Joe Woods. That unit is bawling out now.

1141
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,720
Speaker 2: They've double a lot of injuries in the past and

1142
00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 2: they just went out and upgraded with a lot of

1143
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 2: offseason acquisitions, some of them the Rams. You're seeing the

1144
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 2: Rams suffer in the secondary as a result. But the

1145
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 2: secondary is just deep and talented now. And on top

1146
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 2: of that, you got Garrett in that pass rush. You

1147
00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 2: have j Okay the rookies playing out of his mind.

1148
00:58:00,320 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 2: I think he's the second rated, the second highest rated

1149
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 2: linebacker in the NFL for PFF, only behind Matt Malana.

1150
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 2: So the defense is just playing bawling out. They've only

1151
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 2: got twenty points in the last ten quarters, I mean,

1152
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 2: and it's not like they I mean they played the

1153
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 2: Vikings offense and held him to seven points. They held

1154
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:19,919
Speaker 2: back to back opponents to single digits for the first

1155
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 2: time since nineteen ninety five. So this defense is playing

1156
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 2: amazing and I think that they can do some things

1157
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 2: to contain Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense, which is

1158
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 2: off a short week, should be noted. And then on

1159
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:38,880
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball, the Chargers run day

1160
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 2: has been bad, I mean real bad, twenty fifth DVLA,

1161
00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 2: and they've been top five versus the pass, so they

1162
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 2: might have some success here against Baker Mayfield, who can't

1163
00:58:47,920 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 2: hit an open receiver clearly, I think he's missing Landry some.

1164
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 2: But the brown should run wild in this game. I mean,

1165
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 2: the Chargers run dy has a lot of holes. Brown's

1166
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 2: number one rush offense in the league by most men,

1167
00:59:00,760 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 2: so I think that that their offense is gonna have

1168
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 2: success running the ball. Trolling clock's wearing down this Chargers

1169
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 2: defense on a short week. On the other side of

1170
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 2: the ball, this Browns defense might be the most underrated

1171
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 2: defense in the league right now, so I think they

1172
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 2: can do enough to at least keep this game against

1173
00:59:15,480 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 2: one possession. It should be an interesting game into the

1174
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: two coaches who are going to go for it as

1175
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 2: often as anyone on fourth downs. So from a side perspective,

1176
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 2: just who's gonna win this game could come down to

1177
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 2: one of those decisions, creating a lot of variants in

1178
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:28,520
Speaker 2: this game. But I think the Browns can keep this

1179
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 2: within a possession. It's also worth noting the Chargers special

1180
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:35,400
Speaker 2: teams are still disaster. Just the part of the reason

1181
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:36,760
Speaker 2: they go for the fourth Towns they're not a kicker.

1182
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 2: Is this guyana as their kicker? And the Chargers, I

1183
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 2: love Brandon Selly's decisions here. If they've been getting every

1184
00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 2: fourth down, they're not gonna get every fourth down for

1185
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 2: the rest of the year.

1186
00:59:45,080 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1187
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 2: I think the Browns keep this within one possession and

1188
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 2: the Viking should win by at least a field goal.

1189
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 3: Yeah. And the way these teams are playing now on defense,

1190
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 3: I think this also may lean toward the under which

1191
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 3: makes your you know, teasing up you know, to the

1192
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:01,040
Speaker 3: that's seven and a half even more valuable.

1193
01:00:01,120 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 2: Yep.

1194
01:00:02,040 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, I agree with that one. I'm going with

1195
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:09,000
Speaker 3: a similar one Minnesota teasing them down from hopefully you

1196
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 3: can get the eight and a half down to two

1197
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 3: and a half. If not, you know, get it to three.

1198
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 3: But Minnesota and then Philadelphia up from three and a

1199
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,919
Speaker 3: half to nine and a half. Minnesota, for the same

1200
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 3: reasons I mentioned earlier, just think this is a get

1201
01:00:23,240 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 3: right spot for them. So the tea's here is just

1202
01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 3: kind of almost like a little you know, insurance policy

1203
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 3: on you know, maybe there's a backdoor. Detroit did miss

1204
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 3: some some spots in the red zone against Chicago last week.

1205
01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 3: That would have changed the outcome of that game, but

1206
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,520
Speaker 3: I don't think it's likely, but you never know. And

1207
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:42,440
Speaker 3: then Philadelphia, Philadelphia getting nine and a half in a

1208
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 3: game that I think they could easily win. Love the

1209
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 3: teas there. And then Minnesota in a smash spot getting

1210
01:00:46,840 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 3: them down to two and a half three any game

1211
01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 3: I think they should blow out. The Lions. Also love that.

1212
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 3: So Minnesota and Philly my teaser for week five to

1213
01:00:55,040 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 3: recap stuck going Cleveland, Minnesota, I'm going Philly, Minnesota. Now

1214
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 3: it's time for our money line underdog parlay.

1215
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1216
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1217
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:16,760
Speaker 3: I think we've been on the right side to some

1218
01:01:17,080 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 3: you know, calling some upsets, whether it's with the spreads

1219
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 3: you're having, you know, you're having the Jets and the

1220
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:24,920
Speaker 3: Giants last week. You know, Giants came close with the Steelers,

1221
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:27,720
Speaker 3: came close with the Patriots. So I think we've been

1222
01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:30,680
Speaker 3: really good actually in kind of pointing out these wet

1223
01:01:30,680 --> 01:01:33,120
Speaker 3: down spots and upset spots. So let's keep it going

1224
01:01:33,160 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 3: on and try to hit the parlway where you're going

1225
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 3: for week five.

1226
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, well I'm gonna go. Look, yeah I would.

1227
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:43,560
Speaker 2: I would take the Patriots again if I had to

1228
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 2: great game and a great cover. But I'm gonna go

1229
01:01:47,160 --> 01:01:53,840
Speaker 2: with the Buffalo Bills this week at the Kansas City Chiefs.

1230
01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:57,840
Speaker 2: This is a game I've called out from before the

1231
01:01:57,840 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 2: season started. One of the reasons I bet a Bill's future.

1232
01:02:02,160 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 2: This is a huge, potential, huge game for seeding purposes.

1233
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:06,720
Speaker 2: I said, the Bills are getting their revenge this week. Now,

1234
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 2: they might slip up at Tennessee next, but the Bills, look,

1235
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 2: they have revenge from two losses last year. People are

1236
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,520
Speaker 2: going to say the Chiefs dominated in both games. Sure,

1237
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 2: but the first game you could throw out. I mean

1238
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 2: it was in the rain. The Bills played a bunch

1239
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 2: of practice squad players in the defensive line like they

1240
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 2: just had a healthy scratch as McDermott was mad at them.

1241
01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:28,200
Speaker 2: And also their defense in the first half of the

1242
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 2: year was just awful. Milano didn't play in that game.

1243
01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 2: They just allowed the Chiefs to run all over them

1244
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 2: and just handed it off every play on a on

1245
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:41,560
Speaker 2: a just a dreary, awful weather day. I basically throw

1246
01:02:41,600 --> 01:02:44,160
Speaker 2: that game out. Bills are a completely different team later

1247
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 2: in the year. Then in the playoffs, the Bills kind

1248
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 2: of went away from who they were. They weren't aggressive,

1249
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 2: settling for a field goals and rawhead. I think it

1250
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 2: was a lot of all right, this is our first

1251
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 2: time as a team in the player I think they

1252
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 2: really learned a lot from that game. It is a

1253
01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:59,480
Speaker 2: bit concerning that, you know. I mean, Kelsey just went

1254
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 2: off last the eighteen touchdowns and eighteen catches and four

1255
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 2: touchdowns and two games against them, and I think Hill

1256
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:07,240
Speaker 2: had like one hundred and eighty yards in that playoff game.

1257
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 2: So Hill and Kelsey just killed them. But I came

1258
01:03:10,120 --> 01:03:15,080
Speaker 2: into this year saying that this Bill's defense is going

1259
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 2: to be even better than it was on the second

1260
01:03:17,400 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 2: half of last year. And there's you know, they made

1261
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:22,400
Speaker 2: some scheme changes, made some schematic changes after the bye

1262
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:24,360
Speaker 2: last week, and they were much better the second half

1263
01:03:24,400 --> 01:03:27,200
Speaker 2: of last year. They brought in a couple of things

1264
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:31,000
Speaker 2: that they did. Is star low tou Leiley. They get

1265
01:03:31,080 --> 01:03:33,960
Speaker 2: him back. He missed twenty straight games all last year,

1266
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:37,000
Speaker 2: the playoffs and then the season opener. This year, they

1267
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:39,800
Speaker 2: get him back at the one technique he's playing well

1268
01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 2: this year. That it allows at Oliver is all the

1269
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 2: defensive linemen gets to shift and play their more natural positions.

1270
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 2: At Oliver's playing a lot better now, and then they

1271
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 2: added depth on the defensive end positions off the edge.

1272
01:03:54,120 --> 01:03:56,000
Speaker 2: They're the ones that get to adjust to the chief

1273
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:58,400
Speaker 2: if the Chiefs blew them out twice last year, and

1274
01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:01,960
Speaker 2: there's some regression coming from this Chiefs offense. This Chiefs

1275
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:06,920
Speaker 2: offense is playing at a ridiculous level, obviously because it's

1276
01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:11,000
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes in the Mahomes Era. Since twenty eighteen EPA

1277
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 2: per play on third down, Chiefs point four to seven,

1278
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:18,080
Speaker 2: the next best. Since twenty eighteen, the Raiders point two

1279
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 2: to three. The remove garbage time, they've been double the

1280
01:04:22,200 --> 01:04:24,920
Speaker 2: second best team. But their success rate over that time

1281
01:04:25,560 --> 01:04:29,920
Speaker 2: is about fifty six percent. Excellent. But their success rate

1282
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 2: this year sixty six percent, and they've played tough teams.

1283
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:39,439
Speaker 2: They're converting third downs at a ridiculous sixty four point

1284
01:04:39,520 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 2: one percent. This year. Only three teams in the NFL

1285
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:48,880
Speaker 2: finished over fifty percent since two thousand and five, three teams.

1286
01:04:49,120 --> 01:04:51,840
Speaker 2: No one's been over fifty and ten years and they're

1287
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 2: at sixty four percent. They were ninety percent last week

1288
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 2: against the Eagles, highest percentage of a single game since

1289
01:04:58,000 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 2: two thousand and eight. So I get it. They're all

1290
01:05:00,480 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 2: on third. OUN's always gonna be excellent, but it's not

1291
01:05:02,120 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 2: going to be this good. So I think that there's

1292
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:07,840
Speaker 2: some regression coming there in that department. I just don't

1293
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 2: see how the Bills don't score every possession. I know

1294
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:13,000
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's Acersy's been a little down. It doesn't matter.

1295
01:05:13,040 --> 01:05:16,720
Speaker 2: I mean, the Eagles played last week without four starting

1296
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:21,680
Speaker 2: offensive linemen. For starting offensive linemen, they didn't punt. They

1297
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:24,600
Speaker 2: didn't punt a single time without both their tackles and

1298
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 2: both their guards. They finally covered less because the Eagles

1299
01:05:27,880 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 2: kicked nine field goals inside the ten. They'd refuse to

1300
01:05:30,360 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 2: run the ball. But there's a reason the Chiefs have

1301
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,400
Speaker 2: been over the last They can't cover over a field

1302
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:37,680
Speaker 2: goal favorite and any team can keep up with them

1303
01:05:37,840 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 2: in the last ten. In the regular season, they're one

1304
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:41,720
Speaker 2: to eight and one against the spread. Bills are nine

1305
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:43,760
Speaker 2: and one. By the way, you know, in home fields

1306
01:05:43,800 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: continues to trend downwards. I know it's an arrow, but

1307
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:48,600
Speaker 2: road teams are over five hundred this year. I hope

1308
01:05:48,640 --> 01:05:51,080
Speaker 2: Milano plays because he's a big one. He's so important

1309
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:54,000
Speaker 2: to that defense. But I tease the Bills again, high

1310
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:56,880
Speaker 2: total the exception I'm willing to make for a total

1311
01:05:56,920 --> 01:05:59,560
Speaker 2: that's over fifty two. Whoever, whenever team goes up seven

1312
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 2: nothing game that the other team live, I've claimed the

1313
01:06:02,200 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 2: getting the year. Bills are getting the revenge here, So

1314
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 2: sticking with it, we'll throwing the Bills in the underdog

1315
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,200
Speaker 2: winnning on parlay. Let's go mafia.

1316
01:06:10,720 --> 01:06:13,919
Speaker 3: I actually like the Bills on the money line even

1317
01:06:13,920 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 3: more than I like them in the teaser spot, because

1318
01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:18,640
Speaker 3: you know it is a high total game. Obviously, you

1319
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 3: know things could go crazy. But the key for me

1320
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 3: with the Bills is they are number one in the

1321
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 3: league in pressure rate. They're just eighteenth in blitz rate,

1322
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,160
Speaker 3: and that's you know, the McDermott defense. They're not going

1323
01:06:29,240 --> 01:06:31,720
Speaker 3: to go crazy blitzing. But this year they're getting play.

1324
01:06:31,800 --> 01:06:34,680
Speaker 2: That's that's the biggest difference this year. There. You get

1325
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 2: star back, you get better edge players, and they're getting

1326
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 2: pressure without blitzing, which is the difference their defense has

1327
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 2: this year compared to last.

1328
01:06:43,160 --> 01:06:45,600
Speaker 3: Listen, every quarterback is going to take a downturn under pressure,

1329
01:06:45,880 --> 01:06:49,560
Speaker 3: Mahomes this year, on forty three pressured attempts, has completed

1330
01:06:49,640 --> 01:06:52,080
Speaker 3: just twenty of them. That's just a forty six point

1331
01:06:52,120 --> 01:06:55,320
Speaker 3: five completion percentage. He's thrown three picks on forty three

1332
01:06:55,360 --> 01:06:59,160
Speaker 3: pressured attempts. His average depth of target is sixteen point

1333
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 3: three those pressure attempts. So what is Mahomes doing when

1334
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:05,320
Speaker 3: he's under pressure. He's just throwing it up. And the Bills,

1335
01:07:05,320 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 3: by the way, lead the league not just in pressure rate,

1336
01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:10,320
Speaker 3: but also an interception rate. Now I know a bunch

1337
01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:12,880
Speaker 3: of those came off Davis Mills, but the point is

1338
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:15,880
Speaker 3: the Bills. You know, they're a safety driven defense. They

1339
01:07:15,880 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 3: have that they have those safeties back there, they have

1340
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:20,680
Speaker 3: guys a corner that can cover down the field, and

1341
01:07:20,840 --> 01:07:23,920
Speaker 3: you know this is not a good spot for Mahome.

1342
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bills win

1343
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 3: this game.

1344
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:27,760
Speaker 2: Let's go be else where you going.

1345
01:07:28,360 --> 01:07:30,680
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Eagles for this one too, plus

1346
01:07:30,720 --> 01:07:34,160
Speaker 3: one sixty at bet MGM. And this just comes back

1347
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:35,680
Speaker 3: to the fact that, again the Panthers have been the

1348
01:07:35,680 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 3: second most blitz heavy team in the league. So it's

1349
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:40,560
Speaker 3: either they sit back and don't blitz and and you know,

1350
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:42,600
Speaker 3: the Eagles are able to finally get their run game

1351
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:45,520
Speaker 3: going and pick you know, convert third downs because there's

1352
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 3: no pressure on Hurts or they're blitzing, and Hurts just

1353
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:51,560
Speaker 3: destroys the blitz. He's averaging eight point eight yards per attempt,

1354
01:07:51,560 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 3: eight touchdowns, one pick on ninety eight blitz dropbacks. This

1355
01:07:55,040 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 3: is a very evenly match game and wouldn't be surprised

1356
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:00,480
Speaker 3: at all if the Eagles win it. Again, the Panthers

1357
01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 3: haven't been tested yet, they get tested for the first time.

1358
01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 3: I wouldn't even be surprised if the Eagles got to

1359
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:06,760
Speaker 3: blow out here, just based on the way that they're

1360
01:08:06,800 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 3: playing in the explosiveness of Jaywin Hurts. I think this

1361
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:12,800
Speaker 3: could be one of the surprises of the week going

1362
01:08:12,880 --> 01:08:16,040
Speaker 3: Eagles here. You parlay Bills plus one twenty with Eagles

1363
01:08:16,040 --> 01:08:19,560
Speaker 3: plus one sixty and you get a four point seven

1364
01:08:19,720 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 3: to one payout, So on one hundred dollars bet, you'd

1365
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:25,600
Speaker 3: win an additional four hundred and seventy two dollars for

1366
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:28,479
Speaker 3: a total payout of five seventy two. So that is

1367
01:08:28,520 --> 01:08:32,400
Speaker 3: our money line underdog parlay for Week number five Bills

1368
01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:36,200
Speaker 3: plus one twenty at CAC Eagles plus one sixty at Carolina.

1369
01:08:36,720 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 3: Now it's time for the best of the rest, which

1370
01:08:38,439 --> 01:08:40,400
Speaker 3: are the games that we did not hit on in

1371
01:08:40,439 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 3: any other segment. All right, stuck, Let's start off with

1372
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:48,719
Speaker 3: the Patriots at the Texans. Patriots nine and a half

1373
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 3: point favorites on the road. The total is thirty nine

1374
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 3: and a half tempted to go under here. The Patriots

1375
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:58,519
Speaker 3: rode under since twenty sixteen is twenty eight and thirteen

1376
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:01,639
Speaker 3: sixty eight percent. I just don't see the Texans scoring

1377
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:03,479
Speaker 3: a lot. I'm just worried about like a forty to

1378
01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 3: nothing Patriots win. But I don't know, what do you

1379
01:09:06,240 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 3: think it is? One?

1380
01:09:07,600 --> 01:09:09,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's a lot of trends that back

1381
01:09:09,600 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 2: up the Texans here, like home dogs over a field goal,

1382
01:09:12,240 --> 01:09:14,600
Speaker 2: after scoring single digits, after getting shut out. They're all

1383
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:17,040
Speaker 2: going to be like sixty sixty two percent. And it's

1384
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:19,400
Speaker 2: a bad spot for the Patriots, you know, after that

1385
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:21,519
Speaker 2: game against Stampley got the Cowboys on deck, You're going

1386
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:23,759
Speaker 2: to the Texans. But Belichick is always good in the spot,

1387
01:09:23,960 --> 01:09:26,760
Speaker 2: you know, as a road favorite. He's thirty twenty and

1388
01:09:26,840 --> 01:09:29,280
Speaker 2: one against the spread as a road favorite against losing

1389
01:09:29,320 --> 01:09:32,639
Speaker 2: teams at sixty percent nineteen point five percent ROI that's

1390
01:09:32,640 --> 01:09:35,000
Speaker 2: the most profitable coach in our Actually my data base

1391
01:09:35,040 --> 01:09:37,400
Speaker 2: ins two thousand and three. Always has his team focused

1392
01:09:37,400 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 2: no matter the opponent. One of the problems with the

1393
01:09:40,040 --> 01:09:42,479
Speaker 2: Patriots is they were without four of their five offensive

1394
01:09:42,520 --> 01:09:45,519
Speaker 2: linemen today of practice. Brown and Mason didn't practice with injuries.

1395
01:09:45,800 --> 01:09:49,759
Speaker 2: Win and on Wendo were placed on the COVID list yesterday. That's,

1396
01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:51,599
Speaker 2: you know, supposed to be the strength of the team.

1397
01:09:52,160 --> 01:09:54,200
Speaker 2: And mac Jones looked pretty good against the Bucks, but

1398
01:09:54,280 --> 01:09:57,559
Speaker 2: a lot of short passes I think is what did

1399
01:09:57,600 --> 01:10:00,400
Speaker 2: I see was basically from an EPA perspect it was

1400
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 2: just zero. I mean, it didn't contribute more than just

1401
01:10:04,479 --> 01:10:07,519
Speaker 2: the situation presented. So keep an eye on that. I

1402
01:10:07,560 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 2: would lean under two, but there's just no margin for

1403
01:10:09,360 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 2: our This is a pass for Ray, Yeah.

1404
01:10:10,880 --> 01:10:12,439
Speaker 3: I mean, if the Patriots are missing all these old

1405
01:10:12,439 --> 01:10:15,240
Speaker 3: linement that just makes me like the the under even

1406
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:18,840
Speaker 3: more so I might end up playing that. Obviously, check

1407
01:10:18,920 --> 01:10:21,759
Speaker 3: in the app check my right up one on Saturday,

1408
01:10:21,760 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 3: we'll see where we're going with this one. Let's go

1409
01:10:23,760 --> 01:10:27,280
Speaker 3: to Titans at Jags. Jags finally cover this week. They

1410
01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:29,080
Speaker 3: are four and a half point underdogs with a total

1411
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:32,200
Speaker 3: of forty eight and a half at bet MTM Titans.

1412
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:35,040
Speaker 3: I mean, they just keep getting burned late in the down.

1413
01:10:35,800 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 3: They're number one in defensive pass early down success rate,

1414
01:10:39,280 --> 01:10:43,160
Speaker 3: but they're just getting just destroyed with big plays on

1415
01:10:43,280 --> 01:10:48,320
Speaker 3: third down. DJ Chart goes on ir for the Jaguars,

1416
01:10:48,360 --> 01:10:50,400
Speaker 3: So they are down a receiver. They played Tavon Austin

1417
01:10:50,439 --> 01:10:53,280
Speaker 3: on seventy five percent of the pass naps last week.

1418
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:55,360
Speaker 3: You what are you seeing in this one?

1419
01:10:56,360 --> 01:10:58,880
Speaker 2: Probably gonna play the Jags here sadly plus four and

1420
01:10:58,920 --> 01:11:02,760
Speaker 2: a half if Brown and Julio or out, which I

1421
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:04,559
Speaker 2: think they will be. I don't think that you want

1422
01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:06,439
Speaker 2: to rush either one of them back with the injuries

1423
01:11:06,439 --> 01:11:09,080
Speaker 2: they're especially if an extra day of rest next week

1424
01:11:09,120 --> 01:11:12,200
Speaker 2: before the Bills the game in the ANFC, So I

1425
01:11:12,200 --> 01:11:15,160
Speaker 2: don't think either of them play. They're worth a couple

1426
01:11:15,160 --> 01:11:18,160
Speaker 2: of points combined when it's a cluster and the Tennessee

1427
01:11:18,160 --> 01:11:21,320
Speaker 2: defense thinks. I mean, so Lawrence will be comfortable. He

1428
01:11:21,360 --> 01:11:23,519
Speaker 2: looked a lot comfortable in the last two games against

1429
01:11:23,520 --> 01:11:25,599
Speaker 2: defenses that aren't gonna kill you, and this is one

1430
01:11:25,600 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 2: of the worst defense in the league. They don't get

1431
01:11:27,080 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 2: any pressure. The Titans lots of injuries too on the

1432
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:35,240
Speaker 2: defensive side. Offensive line. You know, Ben Jones and Lewan

1433
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:38,320
Speaker 2: didn't practice today. They got hurt and as a result,

1434
01:11:38,400 --> 01:11:41,120
Speaker 2: Tannel will sack seven times against the Jets. You know,

1435
01:11:41,120 --> 01:11:43,880
Speaker 2: they're coming off of an overtime game on the road,

1436
01:11:44,479 --> 01:11:47,840
Speaker 2: going on the road again for another overtime game, while

1437
01:11:47,920 --> 01:11:51,479
Speaker 2: the Jags had extra rest in preparation. I don't know

1438
01:11:51,520 --> 01:11:55,639
Speaker 2: how Remyer used it, but and the Titans just look,

1439
01:11:55,680 --> 01:12:01,240
Speaker 2: this is the Titans. They don't blow anybody out on

1440
01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:04,559
Speaker 2: the road. They play down to the competition every single time.

1441
01:12:04,840 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 2: They've won seven of their last ten games on the road,

1442
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:10,519
Speaker 2: seven and three, but in eight of them they were

1443
01:12:10,560 --> 01:12:14,600
Speaker 2: either leading by less than three or trailing at the

1444
01:12:14,680 --> 01:12:18,240
Speaker 2: end of regulation. They played like five overtime games. You know,

1445
01:12:18,280 --> 01:12:20,400
Speaker 2: they got blown out by the Bengals. They just lost

1446
01:12:20,439 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 2: to the Jets. Uh. You know, they beat the Texans

1447
01:12:24,160 --> 01:12:27,479
Speaker 2: by three. Last year, they beat uh you know, I

1448
01:12:27,520 --> 01:12:28,760
Speaker 2: mean you could I could just go on and on.

1449
01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:31,360
Speaker 2: They won at a bad Denver team by two, they

1450
01:12:31,520 --> 01:12:34,439
Speaker 2: won at a depleted Minnesota team by one. It's the

1451
01:12:34,439 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 2: team that just will play down to its competition, terrible defense.

1452
01:12:37,640 --> 01:12:39,840
Speaker 2: Lawrence has looked a little more comfortable. You mentioned that

1453
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:43,479
Speaker 2: using Robinson. So if I assume that Brown and Jones

1454
01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:45,479
Speaker 2: are out, I like the Jags of plus four and

1455
01:12:45,479 --> 01:12:47,439
Speaker 2: a half. Jags also have a special team's edge year.

1456
01:12:47,960 --> 01:12:50,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, three and a half yards per carry. Now they're

1457
01:12:50,479 --> 01:12:53,840
Speaker 3: giving up a ton of carries. But has been good

1458
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 3: Derrick Henry, Yeah, it's been. It's at least been above average. Well, yeah,

1459
01:12:58,000 --> 01:13:00,960
Speaker 3: we'll see. But I think I'm still I mean, even

1460
01:13:01,000 --> 01:13:02,840
Speaker 3: though he did cover, I think I'm still gonna hold

1461
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:05,880
Speaker 3: myself to no Urban Meyer Shenanigans for now. This is

1462
01:13:05,880 --> 01:13:08,879
Speaker 3: probably a past for me. Tampa Bay at Miami. Miami

1463
01:13:09,200 --> 01:13:12,280
Speaker 3: is a ten point underdog at home. The total is

1464
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:14,960
Speaker 3: forty eight. You could look at Tom Brady coming off

1465
01:13:15,280 --> 01:13:18,599
Speaker 3: against the spread loss here. He's sixty one, thirty five

1466
01:13:18,640 --> 01:13:21,040
Speaker 3: and two sixty four percent in his career twenty five

1467
01:13:21,080 --> 01:13:24,040
Speaker 3: percent ROI according to our action webs data Bay since

1468
01:13:24,040 --> 01:13:26,120
Speaker 3: two thousand and three, So probably even a little better,

1469
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:28,320
Speaker 3: just we don't go back to two and oh one.

1470
01:13:28,680 --> 01:13:31,559
Speaker 3: But I worry a little bit about Tampa Bay here.

1471
01:13:31,560 --> 01:13:32,920
Speaker 3: I mean, I think this could be a little bit

1472
01:13:32,960 --> 01:13:34,400
Speaker 3: of a wet down spot for them too, even though

1473
01:13:34,439 --> 01:13:36,880
Speaker 3: they didn't blow the doors off last week, just because

1474
01:13:36,960 --> 01:13:40,559
Speaker 3: you have listen, Brian Flores is a Belichick disciple. He

1475
01:13:40,720 --> 01:13:42,599
Speaker 3: just watched. He's gonna have a whole week to watch

1476
01:13:42,720 --> 01:13:45,679
Speaker 3: Zach what Belichick did and what even what went wrong

1477
01:13:45,920 --> 01:13:48,280
Speaker 3: and be able to scheme that up. And then you

1478
01:13:48,320 --> 01:13:52,960
Speaker 3: have Miami. They've actually been sneakily good in past defense.

1479
01:13:53,000 --> 01:13:55,040
Speaker 3: Now you know, some of it is probably playing Carson

1480
01:13:55,040 --> 01:13:58,439
Speaker 3: Wentz and playing Mac Jones in his first game, but

1481
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:01,320
Speaker 3: it was a good snow though. Yeah, no, they do.

1482
01:14:01,400 --> 01:14:04,439
Speaker 3: So it's worth noting they are number two are the Dolphins.

1483
01:14:04,479 --> 01:14:08,400
Speaker 3: An early down pass success rate allowed just forty two percent.

1484
01:14:09,200 --> 01:14:12,680
Speaker 3: The league average is fifty three percent, so Miami has

1485
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:18,920
Speaker 3: been solid. The Bucks have no cornerbacks. Everyone's banged up.

1486
01:14:19,040 --> 01:14:20,880
Speaker 3: They tried it out Richard Sherman, who I believe led

1487
01:14:20,920 --> 01:14:23,680
Speaker 3: the team in tackles, and the Bucks we know they

1488
01:14:23,680 --> 01:14:26,240
Speaker 3: have issues in coverage, but not only that, they're getting

1489
01:14:26,240 --> 01:14:29,599
Speaker 3: no pressure. They lead the NFL in blitz rate. They're

1490
01:14:29,600 --> 01:14:32,120
Speaker 3: blitzing forty one percent at the time, and they have

1491
01:14:32,200 --> 01:14:35,400
Speaker 3: the fifth lowest pressure rate. They're blitzing forty one percent

1492
01:14:35,439 --> 01:14:37,800
Speaker 3: at a time. And they're getting pressured just twenty one

1493
01:14:37,800 --> 01:14:40,439
Speaker 3: percent at the time, and they have no cornerback. So

1494
01:14:40,560 --> 01:14:44,120
Speaker 3: this is just a bad recipe where most weeks I'd

1495
01:14:44,120 --> 01:14:47,120
Speaker 3: probably be teasing the Bucks down or taking the Bucks

1496
01:14:47,120 --> 01:14:50,519
Speaker 3: for a survive or doing something here. But I really

1497
01:14:51,000 --> 01:14:54,639
Speaker 3: worry about this Bucks seam in this spot. Not enough

1498
01:14:54,720 --> 01:14:57,600
Speaker 3: probably to play the Dolphins, because I have not liked

1499
01:14:57,640 --> 01:14:59,920
Speaker 3: what I've seen. How of Jacoby Brissette. It's been just brew.

1500
01:15:00,439 --> 01:15:02,800
Speaker 3: I mean, he doesn't go downfield, whether he's pressured, whether

1501
01:15:02,840 --> 01:15:05,920
Speaker 3: he's not pressured. He's making mistakes, he's turning them all over.

1502
01:15:06,360 --> 01:15:08,920
Speaker 3: But I just see a lot of variance in this game,

1503
01:15:08,920 --> 01:15:12,000
Speaker 3: a lot of shenanigans that could happen. So this is

1504
01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:13,800
Speaker 3: probably a pass for me. What do you think it is.

1505
01:15:13,840 --> 01:15:18,120
Speaker 2: Like Kenset take advantage of the bucks defensive short passes,

1506
01:15:18,160 --> 01:15:20,080
Speaker 2: because that's what happened. That's what's happening here. The reason

1507
01:15:20,120 --> 01:15:22,639
Speaker 2: that they're not getting pressure is everyone is just short passes,

1508
01:15:22,680 --> 01:15:25,200
Speaker 2: short passes, and then their corners are all a saint

1509
01:15:25,200 --> 01:15:27,519
Speaker 2: because they're all hurt. Their Secondari's hurt, and everyone's completing

1510
01:15:27,560 --> 01:15:30,040
Speaker 2: short passes against them and moving the ball. Bucks are

1511
01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:32,439
Speaker 2: allowing us a completion percentage of about seventy three percent.

1512
01:15:32,840 --> 01:15:36,320
Speaker 2: Only the Jags and Giants are worse. So you know,

1513
01:15:36,479 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 2: Ken perset take advantage with that offensive line. I mean,

1514
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:41,760
Speaker 2: that would be the recipe. You can't run it and

1515
01:15:41,800 --> 01:15:44,800
Speaker 2: your offensive line stakes, I mean, the offensive line is horrendous.

1516
01:15:45,040 --> 01:15:47,760
Speaker 2: I think there is some value on the Dolphins here,

1517
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:49,760
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna have to investigate a little further.

1518
01:15:51,000 --> 01:15:55,679
Speaker 3: Saints at Washington, so I played this at a pick

1519
01:15:55,720 --> 01:15:57,439
Speaker 3: them for the Saints, so I do have some closing

1520
01:15:57,479 --> 01:16:01,840
Speaker 3: line value here. Washington is now one half points underdogs.

1521
01:16:01,920 --> 01:16:04,760
Speaker 3: The total is forty four and a half. You know,

1522
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:07,040
Speaker 3: I still think this is a bounce back spot for

1523
01:16:07,080 --> 01:16:08,960
Speaker 3: the Saints. Now, of course you do have Jamis as

1524
01:16:09,000 --> 01:16:12,639
Speaker 3: as a favorite, which is never great. But some things

1525
01:16:12,640 --> 01:16:15,280
Speaker 3: that happened to Washington in that last game. Now, luckily

1526
01:16:15,960 --> 01:16:19,800
Speaker 3: I took Washington. They miraculously covered Datie McKissick makes a

1527
01:16:19,840 --> 01:16:21,920
Speaker 3: great play at the end of the game. Tara Heinike

1528
01:16:22,720 --> 01:16:25,600
Speaker 3: weeds them back. But I worry about Washington in this

1529
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:27,719
Speaker 3: game for how they match up with the Saints defense.

1530
01:16:28,240 --> 01:16:32,200
Speaker 3: Because you lost you know, Diami Brown's banged up your

1531
01:16:32,240 --> 01:16:34,600
Speaker 3: number two receiver. You did get Samuel back, but he

1532
01:16:34,720 --> 01:16:36,760
Speaker 3: only played thirty four percent of the snaps last week,

1533
01:16:37,520 --> 01:16:39,120
Speaker 3: and they're gonna need a big game for him because

1534
01:16:39,120 --> 01:16:42,200
Speaker 3: he also lost Logan Thomas, a really good tight end

1535
01:16:42,200 --> 01:16:44,400
Speaker 3: who was playing pretty much every snap, and you also

1536
01:16:44,479 --> 01:16:47,280
Speaker 3: lost Brandon Sheriff. Now all to you know, taking together,

1537
01:16:47,400 --> 01:16:49,559
Speaker 3: you look at this matchup and you say, Terry McLaurin,

1538
01:16:49,840 --> 01:16:52,840
Speaker 3: he probably put Latimore on him. Latimore's even with the

1539
01:16:52,840 --> 01:16:55,360
Speaker 3: coverage bust against Saquon bark we are running back last week,

1540
01:16:55,560 --> 01:16:58,360
Speaker 3: Latimore is still top ten graded in Pro Football Focus

1541
01:16:58,400 --> 01:17:02,439
Speaker 3: among one hundred and eight corners. So you can take

1542
01:17:02,479 --> 01:17:07,000
Speaker 3: that away if you're if you're the Saints and you

1543
01:17:07,160 --> 01:17:09,600
Speaker 3: force them to beat you with normally what would be

1544
01:17:09,640 --> 01:17:14,120
Speaker 3: Wogan Thomas, you know Brown and his speed down the field.

1545
01:17:14,360 --> 01:17:16,519
Speaker 3: Uh and but now you have like a first three

1546
01:17:16,640 --> 01:17:20,280
Speaker 3: quarterback in Heinike stares down guys too much. Saints usually

1547
01:17:20,280 --> 01:17:22,840
Speaker 3: play man cover two, so they'll have some safeties back

1548
01:17:22,840 --> 01:17:24,760
Speaker 3: watching them, you know, free to kind of break on

1549
01:17:24,800 --> 01:17:28,479
Speaker 3: the ball. It just really the turnovers for Washington really

1550
01:17:28,479 --> 01:17:30,800
Speaker 3: worry me. They can be exploited on the back end,

1551
01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:32,719
Speaker 3: and it's kind of that perfect defense for Sean Payton

1552
01:17:32,760 --> 01:17:34,600
Speaker 3: to scheme up like all he needs is like, I

1553
01:17:34,600 --> 01:17:36,160
Speaker 3: think one or two plays. I think it's also an

1554
01:17:36,240 --> 01:17:38,920
Speaker 3: undergame here. You know, both of these teams have been

1555
01:17:38,920 --> 01:17:40,680
Speaker 3: getting some lucky breaks that have gotten them to go

1556
01:17:40,760 --> 01:17:43,679
Speaker 3: over in some of their games. But I just worry

1557
01:17:43,680 --> 01:17:47,000
Speaker 3: about Washington in the spot, especially given given some of

1558
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:48,880
Speaker 3: their injuries and the way they match up here.

1559
01:17:48,880 --> 01:17:50,679
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah, I think it's an under

1560
01:17:50,720 --> 01:17:52,800
Speaker 2: game here. I mean, watching a major cover issues on

1561
01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:54,639
Speaker 2: the back end. But I don't think New Orleans can

1562
01:17:54,680 --> 01:17:58,280
Speaker 2: take advantage. Uh Trumpaty just has a lid on this offense.

1563
01:17:58,280 --> 01:17:59,519
Speaker 2: I don't know when he's gonna let off. I mean

1564
01:17:59,560 --> 01:18:03,599
Speaker 2: he just doesn't. Trus Jamis, it's so conservative, plays right

1565
01:18:03,640 --> 01:18:07,479
Speaker 2: into an unders hands. Plus Arnstead and McCoy, they're starting

1566
01:18:07,560 --> 01:18:09,600
Speaker 2: left tackle and starting center. Didn't practice again today. I

1567
01:18:09,600 --> 01:18:11,720
Speaker 2: don't think that they're gonna play. I don't think the

1568
01:18:11,720 --> 01:18:13,719
Speaker 2: Saints can really take advantage of some of the issues

1569
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:15,880
Speaker 2: Washington has on the back end. Yeah, I think this

1570
01:18:15,920 --> 01:18:19,000
Speaker 2: is a good bounce back spot for the Saints defense

1571
01:18:19,080 --> 01:18:22,840
Speaker 2: against a banged up Washington offense. So I think it's

1572
01:18:23,800 --> 01:18:24,720
Speaker 2: an underplay here.

1573
01:18:25,160 --> 01:18:30,120
Speaker 3: Last game Chicago five and a half point underdogs at Vegas.

1574
01:18:30,680 --> 01:18:32,920
Speaker 3: I mean, I worry a little bit about Vegas in

1575
01:18:32,960 --> 01:18:37,280
Speaker 3: this spot. They finally got exposed last week, but that

1576
01:18:37,439 --> 01:18:39,599
Speaker 3: was by a very well coach Charger team. Now Matt

1577
01:18:39,640 --> 01:18:42,720
Speaker 3: Nagy has committed to justin Fields. Really it's been the

1578
01:18:42,840 --> 01:18:44,760
Speaker 3: issue at Fields has been when he's under pressure, he

1579
01:18:44,840 --> 01:18:49,280
Speaker 3: just can't function. Crosby is getting crazy pressure, but overall

1580
01:18:49,320 --> 01:18:53,040
Speaker 3: the Raiders pressure numbers have been pedestrian five and a

1581
01:18:53,120 --> 01:18:55,720
Speaker 3: half kind of that dead zone. But it seems more

1582
01:18:55,840 --> 01:18:58,720
Speaker 3: like a four game to me, like, you know, three

1583
01:18:58,920 --> 01:19:02,439
Speaker 3: four game to be twenty something like that. Uh, maybe

1584
01:19:02,479 --> 01:19:05,080
Speaker 3: another undergame. The line's a little high, but I don't

1585
01:19:05,080 --> 01:19:06,840
Speaker 3: know if I'm gonna touch it. What do you think?

1586
01:19:07,439 --> 01:19:10,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, short week after a road Monday night game O

1587
01:19:10,880 --> 01:19:12,960
Speaker 2: road in quotation, Mark's going to travel and teams in

1588
01:19:13,000 --> 01:19:15,439
Speaker 2: that spot when they come home one O three, one,

1589
01:19:15,840 --> 01:19:18,639
Speaker 2: two and seven against the spread forty three point eight percent.

1590
01:19:19,920 --> 01:19:22,120
Speaker 2: They could be a letdown spot here for the Raiders.

1591
01:19:22,160 --> 01:19:25,400
Speaker 2: All these huge games and they you know, they won

1592
01:19:25,520 --> 01:19:28,040
Speaker 2: three of them to start the year against good opponents,

1593
01:19:28,040 --> 01:19:31,760
Speaker 2: and then you know they lost against a division rible

1594
01:19:31,800 --> 01:19:33,400
Speaker 2: They got the Broncos on deck. Now you're playing the

1595
01:19:33,400 --> 01:19:35,040
Speaker 2: Bears at home, so it just could be a flat

1596
01:19:35,080 --> 01:19:38,639
Speaker 2: game for them. The Bears still stank. The offensive line

1597
01:19:38,680 --> 01:19:41,360
Speaker 2: still sticks. The Lions had their first three drives inside

1598
01:19:41,360 --> 01:19:44,120
Speaker 2: the ten and they didn't score any points. That hasn't happened.

1599
01:19:44,160 --> 01:19:48,480
Speaker 2: It's nineteen ninety three. Montgomery's is hurt now for the Bears,

1600
01:19:48,840 --> 01:19:51,559
Speaker 2: the Raiders run defense has been pretty good. That Raiders

1601
01:19:51,560 --> 01:19:54,920
Speaker 2: defense overall has been better under Gas Bradley as I expected.

1602
01:19:55,200 --> 01:19:58,559
Speaker 2: I think in Gocway and Crosby can bother fields some

1603
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:01,800
Speaker 2: the Raiders second injuries just from a death perspective or a

1604
01:20:01,800 --> 01:20:04,320
Speaker 2: little concerning. I mean, you lost Mullin, you lost their net,

1605
01:20:04,400 --> 01:20:07,960
Speaker 2: your slots banged up. Maybe a tad high given the

1606
01:20:08,000 --> 01:20:11,640
Speaker 2: spot in the short week, but probably a pass for me.

1607
01:20:12,240 --> 01:20:14,479
Speaker 3: I think I might go first half under in this one,

1608
01:20:14,640 --> 01:20:16,960
Speaker 3: because you know the Raiders defense, you know, you don't

1609
01:20:17,000 --> 01:20:19,040
Speaker 3: expect you know, I know Wayser was better calling plays

1610
01:20:19,080 --> 01:20:20,840
Speaker 3: last even though Matt naggat you should have a pep

1611
01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:23,599
Speaker 3: talk for Matt Naggie, I mean, give you a guy credit.

1612
01:20:23,880 --> 01:20:26,800
Speaker 3: Did you hear that whole thing, that whole press conference, Like,

1613
01:20:26,880 --> 01:20:30,280
Speaker 3: come on, Matt nagg you like you did something positive

1614
01:20:30,560 --> 01:20:33,960
Speaker 3: you delegated a task that you were clearly struggling with,

1615
01:20:34,080 --> 01:20:37,400
Speaker 3: which is understandable because you're still you're coming from being

1616
01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:40,240
Speaker 3: a coordinator yourself. You're still in a relatively new position

1617
01:20:40,280 --> 01:20:42,599
Speaker 3: in a tough city where they're really critical of your

1618
01:20:42,600 --> 01:20:46,639
Speaker 3: football team. You delegated successfully and you turned it around

1619
01:20:46,640 --> 01:20:48,120
Speaker 3: for your young quarterback.

1620
01:20:47,840 --> 01:20:50,360
Speaker 4: And then you proceeded to essentially try to take credit

1621
01:20:50,400 --> 01:20:54,720
Speaker 4: in the most underhanded, whack kind of way instead of

1622
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:57,599
Speaker 4: just giving your guy wayser who's been under fire, who's

1623
01:20:57,640 --> 01:20:59,280
Speaker 4: you know, had his share of you know, the media

1624
01:20:59,280 --> 01:21:01,520
Speaker 4: has come at him when he's had some some struggles.

1625
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:04,400
Speaker 3: Just give your guys some credit there. Matt Naggy like

1626
01:21:04,479 --> 01:21:07,920
Speaker 3: that was that was really bogus like that that infuriated

1627
01:21:07,920 --> 01:21:11,920
Speaker 3: me probably more than anything Herbert Meyer has done so

1628
01:21:12,040 --> 01:21:14,080
Speaker 3: far as as a head coach, which is saying something

1629
01:21:14,120 --> 01:21:17,000
Speaker 3: so yeah, man, Matt Naggy, come on, man, do better

1630
01:21:17,040 --> 01:21:22,120
Speaker 3: than that. But worth noting, Matt Naggy first half unders

1631
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:24,800
Speaker 3: when it's when the numbers like in this range, So

1632
01:21:25,560 --> 01:21:27,360
Speaker 3: when the you know, the total is forty four and

1633
01:21:27,400 --> 01:21:28,960
Speaker 3: a half of the full game, So when you get

1634
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:31,240
Speaker 3: a first half under eighteen and a half to twenty three,

1635
01:21:31,280 --> 01:21:34,120
Speaker 3: which means, you know, total probably thirty seven to forty five,

1636
01:21:34,320 --> 01:21:36,920
Speaker 3: forty five and a half, thirty two and eleven toward

1637
01:21:37,000 --> 01:21:40,240
Speaker 3: the under seventy four percent. In Matt Naggie's Bears career,

1638
01:21:41,240 --> 01:21:43,439
Speaker 3: you know, I don't see the Bears offense lighting it up.

1639
01:21:43,560 --> 01:21:47,280
Speaker 3: Raiders d has been better. And on the other side Bear,

1640
01:21:47,439 --> 01:21:49,160
Speaker 3: you know, the I don't see the Raiders lighting it

1641
01:21:49,240 --> 01:21:51,720
Speaker 3: up was Derek Carr was bound for some regression here.

1642
01:21:52,040 --> 01:21:54,160
Speaker 3: You know, Bears, you would say maybe the weakest part

1643
01:21:54,200 --> 01:21:57,000
Speaker 3: is their cornerback group, but runs and having some successes.

1644
01:21:57,040 --> 01:21:58,880
Speaker 3: He catches like one deep ball game, runs by the

1645
01:21:58,920 --> 01:22:02,640
Speaker 3: safeties at some point from the from that inside alignment.

1646
01:22:02,920 --> 01:22:06,040
Speaker 3: But even so, yeah, it's probably the first half unders

1647
01:22:06,040 --> 01:22:08,479
Speaker 3: where I'm gonna end up going with this one. So yeah,

1648
01:22:08,600 --> 01:22:10,439
Speaker 3: that's gonna that's gonna do it for the best of

1649
01:22:10,439 --> 01:22:13,240
Speaker 3: the rest. For Week five, let's get into our final segment,

1650
01:22:13,240 --> 01:22:14,599
Speaker 3: the Survivor Pool Picking the week.

1651
01:22:20,680 --> 01:22:23,200
Speaker 1: The Survivor Pool Pick of the week.

1652
01:22:25,120 --> 01:22:28,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, so stuck. We both survived and both went Cincinnati

1653
01:22:28,240 --> 01:22:32,000
Speaker 3: last week. You've used stamp Fran Cleveland, Denver since I've

1654
01:22:32,080 --> 01:22:35,120
Speaker 3: used San Fran, Green Bay, Carolina since that was a

1655
01:22:35,160 --> 01:22:37,960
Speaker 3: sweat last week, but they ended up getting to win

1656
01:22:38,400 --> 01:22:41,240
Speaker 3: great second half against Urban Meyer and the Jags. Where

1657
01:22:41,240 --> 01:22:42,280
Speaker 3: we go in Week five.

1658
01:22:42,880 --> 01:22:45,080
Speaker 2: I think you gotta go Vikings here against the Lions.

1659
01:22:45,160 --> 01:22:47,720
Speaker 2: Already talked about the spot, and uh, don't see many

1660
01:22:47,760 --> 01:22:52,599
Speaker 2: other opportunities where I'd feel great about using them compared

1661
01:22:52,600 --> 01:22:55,080
Speaker 2: to some other teams that I potentially might want to

1662
01:22:55,160 --> 01:22:57,360
Speaker 2: use this week and not want to say so. I

1663
01:22:57,360 --> 01:22:59,000
Speaker 2: think the Vikings are a clear choice.

1664
01:22:59,479 --> 01:23:02,080
Speaker 3: Yes, we have to these injuries to rag Now and

1665
01:23:02,240 --> 01:23:05,360
Speaker 3: an Aquara, which you know, maybe not household names to

1666
01:23:05,439 --> 01:23:08,479
Speaker 3: the average fan, but for a team already teetering on

1667
01:23:08,520 --> 01:23:10,760
Speaker 3: that like you know, touchdown spread or more. I think

1668
01:23:10,760 --> 01:23:12,639
Speaker 3: I've made the line about eight eight and a half

1669
01:23:12,680 --> 01:23:16,920
Speaker 3: even before those injuries, so now it's up to ten.

1670
01:23:17,040 --> 01:23:19,280
Speaker 3: I think it's my highest, you know line of the week,

1671
01:23:19,360 --> 01:23:21,800
Speaker 3: right there with the Bucks. But as I mentioned, I

1672
01:23:21,800 --> 01:23:24,240
Speaker 3: think the Bucks are kind of a little worrisome just

1673
01:23:24,280 --> 01:23:26,519
Speaker 3: because all the injuries they're doing with they're not getting pressure,

1674
01:23:26,960 --> 01:23:32,840
Speaker 3: getting going against Flores and then yeah, you want to

1675
01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:34,680
Speaker 3: save Tampa as well and to just to where they're

1676
01:23:34,720 --> 01:23:39,479
Speaker 3: in a better form. Dude, and Patriots the other option

1677
01:23:40,240 --> 01:23:43,400
Speaker 3: love it for you know, Belichick going against the rookie quarterback.

1678
01:23:43,439 --> 01:23:46,200
Speaker 3: But there's some other spots with the Patriots you could

1679
01:23:46,240 --> 01:23:48,080
Speaker 3: still use, you know, maybe the Jets you want to

1680
01:23:48,160 --> 01:23:50,080
Speaker 3: use them. Yeah, there's some spots to play the Patriots

1681
01:23:50,120 --> 01:23:52,679
Speaker 3: down the line here, So going with Minnesota as well.

1682
01:23:53,120 --> 01:23:55,280
Speaker 3: All right, that is going to wrap it up for

1683
01:23:55,800 --> 01:23:59,200
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast for Week five. You can find

1684
01:23:59,479 --> 01:24:02,080
Speaker 3: Stucky on Twitter at Stucky two and me on Twitter

1685
01:24:02,200 --> 01:24:04,840
Speaker 3: at Chris Raybon. And you can find us at those

1686
01:24:04,840 --> 01:24:07,280
Speaker 3: same handles in the Action Network app where you can

1687
01:24:07,479 --> 01:24:11,160
Speaker 3: where you can follow our bets and track yours for free.

1688
01:24:11,160 --> 01:24:14,439
Speaker 3: You can help, so follow the Sunday six Pack picks

1689
01:24:14,520 --> 01:24:17,280
Speaker 3: the search for Sunday six Pack in the Action Network

1690
01:24:17,320 --> 01:24:21,719
Speaker 3: apps follow feature until next week. Let's get this money.

1691
01:24:22,240 --> 01:24:27,040
Speaker 2: Let go