WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 3 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 11) 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.280 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:10.320 --> 0:00:13.840 the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.119 I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:19.000 on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We did a pretty 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:21.320 successful week last week, going four and oh with the 0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.680 Bills laying one and a half against the Giants, the 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:27.000 Chargers Colts coming in under forty eight points, the Titans 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:29.240 and Colts coming in under forty three and a half, 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.000 and Sony Michelle rushing for more than seventy five yards. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.400 Our guest last week, Andrew Kelly, had more of a 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:37.159 mixed bag, hitting on his Cowboys minus five over the 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.320 Redskins and Cooper Cup over eighty yards receiving, but he 0:00:40.320 --> 0:00:43.240 missed on the Titans minus three and the Chiefs Raiders 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:45.440 over fifty three and a half. Let's see if we 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:47.520 can follow it up with an even better week while 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.120 looking at to be honest, a pretty tough slate in 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:52.519 my opinion, with me today to break down some of 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.400 our best bets, a bet to avoid, and our favorite 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:58.200 player prop bet. Is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:01.120 at bangbook dot com and host of Bang the Book Radio. 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:04.280 You can find them on Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:04.760 how you doing. 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:06.320 I'm doing well. Dan, How are you? 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:08.839 I'm doing great, buddy. You are the first two time 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.040 guest on this podcast. How does that feel. 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:13.800 I am very honored, very very honored. Thank you so 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:14.440 much for having me. 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:16.960 Oh absolutely, I did. I really enjoyed when you were 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:18.880 on the first time. Do you agree with me that 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:21.160 this late is really really ugly. 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:23.600 Well, you said that you want to talk about a 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:25.800 game to avoid, and if I could, I'd avoid the 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:29.440 entire NFL card. It's brutal this week, and the thing 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:33.240 of it is, even the teams that don't have substantial injuries, 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:35.839 I think that they're very high variance types of games. 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:37.760 So it's gonna be a tough week in the NFL. 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:39.959 I think I agree. Well, we are here to navigate 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:41.920 you through it, and real quick. Before we get into 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.000 the show, I do want to remind everyone about our 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:47.880 September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet. 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.360 Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:53.560 Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest 0:01:53.800 --> 0:01:56.560 at bettingpros dot com. And if you entered last month's 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.320 contest you are automatically entered into this month, so no 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:01.840 worries there, all right, Adam, As always, we're going to 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.600 get started with pick six, where we are both going 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:07.000 to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend, 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:09.560 either against the spread or on the over under. And 0:02:09.600 --> 0:02:11.440 as always, I will note at the outset that we're 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.560 recording this shortly before kickoff of the Thursday night game, 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:16.480 so we're not going to be making any picks on 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.360 the Titans Jaguars game, even if we wanted to. But 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:21.320 if you want to see how I picked that game, 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:23.519 you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:26.160 show you how I and basically every betting expert who 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:28.920 makes picks on the site made their picks for every game. 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:31.200 And we're also going to be using the bettingpros dot 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.359 com consensus odds in making our picks. Here. Those are 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.160 the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market. 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:39.440 All right, buddy, start us off. What's your first pick? 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:41.600 I gotta say, you said pick six. I thought we're 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:43.720 gonna talk about Jameis Winston for a little while before 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:46.080 we got into these picks. But you know, for me, 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:47.560 like I said, I mean, I think this is such 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:50.680 a challenging NFL card, so some of these may have 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:52.560 a little bit lower of a degree of confidence than 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.080 I would typically have in the NFL. But we'll start 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.560 with the Detroit Lions, and the consensus line out there 0:02:57.560 --> 0:03:00.640 now over at betting pros is six and a half. Look, 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.840 I mean, this is one of those instances where the 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.760 Lions are coming in pretty healthy overall, nothing that stands 0:03:06.760 --> 0:03:09.639 out too much. The Eagles have all kinds of issues. 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:13.080 Doug Peterson canceled practice on Wednesday. They just went ahead 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:15.280 and had a walk through. And what really worries me 0:03:15.280 --> 0:03:18.000 about this game, and we see this sometimes in the NFL. 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:20.640 With these big numbers, you've got to get some margin. 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:23.720 And for the Eagles, the running game isn't doing anything, 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.919 and what half of their able bodied receivers are out 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:29.240 for this game, So I think it's really tough for 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:31.400 them to get margin. Tough for the wide receivers to 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.960 get separation and help Carson Wentz out, and also too 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:37.880 to get margin with a secondary as bad as the 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:40.640 Eagles secondary has been here so far this season. I 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.200 think Matt Stafford can move the football for the Lions. 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:46.800 I think the Lions take this game really seriously. Philadelphia's 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:48.760 banged up, and they've got a short week and play 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.360 Green Bay on Thursday night. A lot of check marks 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.760 in the Lions box for me. So I know it's 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:55.560 tough to take a Lions team out on the road, 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:56.800 but I think six and a half it's a little 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:57.760 bit too much in this game. 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.240 I agree with you completely. Actually, they're now one of 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.160 my picks, of course, because I don't want to double 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:04.040 up with you, but I agree I would take the 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.800 Lions here now. Yeah, I think I'm not sure exactly 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.600 what it was when it first opened or maybe before, 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:11.640 you know, the Sunday Night game. I think it was 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:13.280 at seven and a half. It might have been at 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:15.840 eight when it first out of curiosity. How would you 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:17.480 have felt about the line if it was at seven 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.640 and a half, if let's say Deshaun Jackson and Alshon 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:22.400 Jeffrey were healthy for this game, because it sounds like 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:23.920 both are gonna miss as of right now. 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:26.159 Yeah, I mean, look, I like the Lions. I like 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:28.120 the Lions to begin with. On the opener at seven 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:30.120 and a half or eight, it's you know, a little 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:31.719 bit disappointing. I know you and I are both in 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:34.480 the Super Contest. It's disappointing that the Lions are plus 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:36.560 six out there in that you can find six and 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:38.080 a half in the market, and that they were over 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.479 a touchdown early in the week. But I mean, look, 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:44.240 Philadelphia is supposed to be all about explosiveness. Five yards 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:46.760 per play in two games here so far. I had 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:49.360 the Eagles last week in the Super Contest and they 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.200 were a half yard from winning. They were fourth and 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:53.760 three stop from winning. But they were not the right 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:55.960 side in that game. They did not play well at all. 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:58.800 So this isn't just sour grapes and going against them. 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:02.120 It's just something misfiring with that offense. And I don't 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.600 know if it's Wentz shaking off the rust or if 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:06.920 it's all injury related, but I don't have a lot 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:09.560 of confidence in the Eagles laying big numbers against you know, 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:11.720 anybody not named the Dolphins of the Jets right now. 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.400 And honestly, the Lions have been a lot better than 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:17.279 I expected. I mean, they could easily beat two and 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:20.160 zero if they had managed to hold on against the 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:22.880 Cardinals instead of taking the tie in Week one. Their 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:24.880 defense was played a little bit better than I expected. 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.960 The offense, you know, it's given Matt Stafford a bunch 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:31.320 of different weapons. Carrie on Johnson has looked, you know fine, 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:35.120 maybe hasn't taken the leap yet that maybe we all expected, 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.960 although we did have that long touchdown last week. So 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.240 in the end, this is for me. I agree with you. 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.719 I'm on your side for sure. It's as much about 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:44.640 the Lions as it is about the Eagles here, so 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.480 I agree with you. Even on the road. I do 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:49.360 like the Lions plus six and a half, so I'm 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.839 with you on that one. My first pick, I'm going 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.160 with an over under here, and it's under forty four 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:57.440 on the Bengals at the Bills. Now, I also lean 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.719 a little bit towards the Bengals here to cover the 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:01.800 six point spread, but that's not going to be one 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.159 of my picks. The Bills' first two games have total 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.240 thirty three and forty two against the Giants and the Jets, 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.200 and they put up twenty eight points last week against 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:12.159 the Giants, but I don't expect them to do that here. First, 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:15.200 the Giants defense, as I said last week, is really 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.760 just abysmal. They might not quite be at the Dolphins level, 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:21.880 but they're really not that far off. And I fully 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:24.760 admit that whatever the Bengals did on defense last week 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:27.520 against the forty nine ers was not actual defense. They 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:30.599 had one of the worst tackling performances I've ever seen 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.479 in watching NFL games, But that does not really strike 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:38.280 me necessarily as this sustainable phenomenon. They really didn't look 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:40.760 like that against Seattle in Week one. Now you add 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:43.520 to that the fact that Devin Singletary is almost certainly 0:06:43.600 --> 0:06:45.919 out for this game. And I love Frank More, but 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:47.600 I think it's safe to say that the Bengals aren't 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:49.160 going to be giving up, you know, close to two 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:52.200 hundred and sixty rushing yards. I like Josh Allen, but 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:56.240 still have the accuracy concerns. I don't hate Cincinnati's cornerbacks, 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:58.440 and I'm a little concerned. You know, there are some 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:00.679 things when I was digging deep into this game, sounds 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:03.240 like Carl Lawson may miss this game, which takes away, 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:05.920 you know, since he's pass rush. But really, in the end, 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:08.800 what I think is this is probably gonna wind up 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.520 being a close and relatively low scoring game. I like 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.000 the Bills defense as a general manner, and you know, 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:18.520 look the Bengals have issues on offense. Of course, they 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:21.320 still haven't recovered from Jonah Williams injury. I don't know 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:24.000 if Cordy Glenn is going to be back from the concussion. 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:28.080 I don't expect them to have a giant offensive performance either, 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:31.760 especially against the Bills defense. And again, Buffalo, for me, 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.880 I went to school there, and it's not rocket science. 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:36.680 It's a tough place to play, even when you're not 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:38.720 in the winter. You've got the Bills, the Sabers and 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:41.200 Duff Swings, and that's pretty much all you've got in 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:43.120 that city. The fans are going to be raucous. I 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.360 think it's going to be tough for Cincinnati to generate 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:48.080 much on offense. I don't think Buffalo has the offense 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.200 to carry that over under really by themselves. So I 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:53.400 see a close game here. If I were to pick 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:55.560 the spread, I'd probably go with the Bengals. But more 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.200 than the spread, I like the under here at forty four. 0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:00.600 Yeah, it's scary. I kind of like the side a 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:02.960 little bit too. But I'm on the same wavelength with 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:04.920 you with regards to the under. I mean, you know, 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:07.480 when you look at what happened last week, you know. 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:09.000 And I got to see this first hand with Kyle 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.760 Shanahan when he was the offensive cordator in Cleveland. He 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.200 took a collection of bums and made a decent offense 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:18.240 out of the wide receivers. The guy's just a brilliant 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:22.120 play designer, a very good play caller. Brian Daboles not 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.880 that guy, you know. Last week the forty nine ers 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.440 got a bunch of yards on screens, got some yards 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.840 on mistackles. I would expect Cincinnati to play a little 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:32.880 bit better, you know, in the back seven, play a 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:35.040 little bit better with their safeties here in this one, 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:37.240 because you don't have to worry about getting beat over 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:39.400 the top by Josh Allen the way that you do 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:41.719 with Jimmy Garoppolo or some of the other guys that 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:43.520 are out there. So I agree with you. I think 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:46.199 Cincinnati can, you know, button batting down the hatches a 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.160 little bit here. And like you said about the Bills, 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:50.559 I mean also too for the Bills. I mean, if 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:52.880 they're up in the second half of this game. And 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:54.520 maybe this is part of the reason why I kind 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.000 of like the Bengals a little bit. Buffalo at three 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:59.240 and oh against New England at three and oh at 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:02.319 New Era Field next week. There's gonna be a look 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:05.080 ahead factor in the second half and in particular in 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:07.200 the fourth quarter. If the Bills have this game in hand. 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:09.240 That's the thing. It's not like this is a three 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.480 point spread. I mean that's six points. It opened I 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:13.719 think closer to four when it first hit four or 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.240 four and a half. That might be a different story. 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:18.680 Although you know, I'm not going to be surprised if 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:20.880 the Bengals come away here with a win. I'm not 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:23.520 going to predict that necessarily, but six points that's a 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:25.560 pretty big margin right there. And if you think you 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.240 know that basically for the reasons that you said, I don't. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.240 I certainly don't see the Bills running away with this 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:33.920 game at all. And I certainly could see them basically 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:36.840 looking at what happened last week win Cincinnati and thinking, 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:39.040 you know what, we're gonna be able to take care 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.360 business at home. We've got the Pats coming up, maybe 0:09:41.400 --> 0:09:43.360 we can make a stand there and looking past them. 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:45.640 And I agree with that, and really, for me, just 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:48.640 last week, you know, I agree Shanahan and he had 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:52.480 a couple of brilliant plays, but really the tackling was 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.480 so abysmal, and they're not that bad. That was just 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:57.560 a crazy sort of it struck me as a one 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:00.400 off because they really were not that bad against Seattle. 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.040 So I do expect a close game here. I think 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.000 we both kind of are on the same wavelength, and 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:05.840 I'm gonna go with the under. So who's your second 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:06.280 pick here? 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:09.439 Yeah, and one other quick point. You know, Buffalo great defense, 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.560 great pass defense. You know, we know the Bengals are 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:13.760 probably gonna throw a lot, but also you know, it 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.120 seemed like reading some of the reports that were out there, 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.120 Zach Taylor really wanted to get Joe Mixon more involved 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:21.000 this week. I think that's kind of part of the 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:23.160 thing that he's looking to do when we all know 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:25.280 that there's a lot of hatred against running the football 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:27.920 in the NFL these days, not throwing the ball, you're 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.040 gonna move the ball in short or chunks. So that 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.400 kind of plays into Buffalo's hands a little bit, you know, 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:34.200 with regards to the under here in this one, as 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:37.280 well as far as my next pick goes, Boy, this 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:39.320 one's ugly, but you know what, I gotta look at 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.160 the Raiders. I mean, they're plus nine and a half 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.679 out there now on the consensus odds again eight and 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.320 a half in the Super Contest, So not losing any 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.319 key value or anything like that. Still would like to 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:50.560 get the best line possible, But this was one that 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.480 I isolated pretty quickly because you know, again you talk 0:10:53.520 --> 0:10:56.040 about the NFL, you talk about trying to get margin. 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:59.280 Minnesota's gonna run the football, and if they run it 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:02.040 down Oakland's rout and run for two hundred and twenty 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.440 five two hundred and fifty yards, then sure I could 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.840 see a path to them covering this number. But one 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:10.160 thing that's really impressed me about Oakland so far this year. 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.120 They played very well in the first half against Denver, 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:15.439 and they played very well in the first quarter against 0:11:15.480 --> 0:11:18.400 Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes just took over the game. 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:20.360 And that's gonna happen. I mean, Mahomes is gonna do 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.760 that to much better teams than Oakland. But Oakland tried 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.400 to change up a lot on defense last week. There 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.600 were a lot of miscommunications, guys kind of running free 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.400 on slant routes. Mahomes made some throws over the top 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.960 where he got some long touchdown passes. Oakland's gonna play 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:40.560 a simplified base defense here this week. Paul Gunther familiar 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.200 with Mike Zimmer from their time together in Cincinnati. He'll 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.040 have an idea of what the Vikings want to do. 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.720 They're gonna sell out against the run. They'll make Kirk 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:50.920 Cousins beat them. And I really haven't seen much from 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.280 Kirk Cousins that would suggest that he was gonna go 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.200 out there and cover almost a double digit numbers. So 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.920 for Oakland, look, they don't play a home game again 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:01.520 until November third, And this is an angle I've looked 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:04.040 at before in the NBA, in the NHL, the first 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:06.840 game of a road trip, you get a team's best effort. 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:08.760 They want to set the road trip off on the 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:11.080 right foot. They're as fresh as they're going to be. 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:13.880 I could get a really good effort from Oakland here 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:16.959 this week. I'm not so sure about Minnesota coming off 0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:21.240 of last week's loss, and in a divisional sandwich with Chicago. 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:23.880 On deck, that's you make a lot of really interesting points. 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:26.200 And you know the thing about the Raiders defense last 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.320 week is that it wasn't just that they played well 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.439 in the first quarter and then Mahomes put up twenty 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:33.400 eight points in the second quarter. Whi's true, but he 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.760 didn't put up anything other than that. It was legitimately 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:40.400 one quarter. For three quarters, they generally held the Chiefs 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:42.480 in check. Now I know, of course, it's a little 0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:45.080 bit different. The Chiefs were ahead, so it's not exactly 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.200 the same thing. But they have been much better, in 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:51.560 my opinion, than what I expected. Now, this line, originally 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.920 I think was close. It might have opened at seven 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.079 and a half, and at that point I felt a 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.200 little more comfortable with the Vikings. I don't think I 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:01.599 feel comfortable either way on this game. I mean I 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:05.320 have not. Part of me really expects this, and we'll 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.320 talk about that. I'll mention them later in the player prop. 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.160 I expect it to be a little bit more of 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.080 a get right game for the Vikings. I think that 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.720 they have just looked a little bit out of sorts. 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:15.360 He had the first game where they won, but you know, 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:19.640 Kirk Cousins through ten passes. Then last week against the 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:23.040 Packers they got way behind. You know, the passing game 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.839 has obviously not been working. Cousins hasn't looked good really 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.040 since he's been with the Vikings, but certainly not yet 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:31.280 so I do see a scenario where they try to 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:33.720 essentially open it up a little bit and put on 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.360 more points rather than lean on the run, which I 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.600 think they're going to do generally throughout the season. But 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.880 at nine and a half, that's a big number. But 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.680 for me, I don't know, it was a little scary 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:45.520 to kind of take it. Nine and a half makes 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:47.319 me lean towards the Raiders, But for me, I was 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:49.000 a little worried about picking them. 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.480 No, that's completely understandable. I mean, you know, the Raider 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:53.600 is not exactly a team that's gained a whole lot 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.760 of trust over the last few years. The thing of 0:13:55.800 --> 0:13:58.920 it for me is they're going to be prepared. You know, 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.559 I think what we've seen so far from John Gruden. 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:03.880 You know, obviously he doesn't get along with Mike Mayock, 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.040 and you know, he's kind of put his own stamp 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:09.400 on the personnel for this team. But they're usually prepared 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:11.600 as long as they're not in a spot where they're 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.360 gonna quit or something like that. The team is ready 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.760 to go. Now if they get out talented, and that's 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:20.160 very possible here against Minnesota, that's one thing. But I 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.560 think that they're going to be ready to go here, 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.080 and to me, I think when you're a big underdog 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.840 and underdog of this magnitude, that's half the battle to 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:30.240 be focused, to be engaged, to be ready to go 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.200 out there and give a good performance. So Minnesota certainly 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:34.880 can run it up and they can salt the game 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:36.880 away with the running game if they want to. But 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.520 I think Oakland's gonna be in a decent spot here. 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.080 And again, like I said, I mean, you've got some 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:44.960 injuries here. Once again, injuries in play with every game, 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:48.120 some injuries in the back seven for Minnesota. Anthony bar 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:50.680 did in practice on Thursday. They've got some other guys. 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.560 Mackenzie Alexander is not gonna play, so maybe Oakland could 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.480 take advantage of that through the air, and especially in 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.360 the middle of the field with how they've been using 0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:58.280 the tight end so much. 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.240 Yeah, I mean, you make a lot of go points. 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.080 It's not something that I'm running away from. And if 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:05.800 I was forced to pick one side, I would go 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.640 with the Raiders. But for now, it's really because the 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:11.160 spread has gotten much higher than I expected. Again, I 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:12.800 don't know what you mentioned in the Super contest. It 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.560 might be eight I think, but at nine and a half. 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.200 That's something that's a little too dicey for me to 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.280 even think about relying on the Vikings, even though I 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.640 could see a scenario where they really run it up 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:27.000 switching gears to my second pick. I don't know if 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:28.600 you're going to be too happy with it, because you 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:30.920 are a Cleveland fan, if I remember. 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:32.240 Correctly, right, yes, sir? 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.080 All right, well, I am taking the Rams laying three 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:40.640 in Cleveland. Now this is a really, really, really public play, 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.920 which makes me nervous because really you always I never 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:46.560 want to be on that side. And it's something like 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:49.040 eighty five percent of the bets and the money is 0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:54.400 coming in on the Rams. I really am surprised that 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:57.560 this is where the numbers came. Now, I'm a Jets fan. 0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:01.840 I watched Monday Night pretty closely. If anything, I downgraded 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:05.000 them after that game. I mean, the offense, for whatever reason, 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.960 looks really really stagnant. The late eighty nine yard slant 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:12.440 to Beckham makes the offensive totals look better than they were, 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.400 but they had very little going on offensively for most 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.080 of that game. And that is against the Jets team 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:20.160 that was missing both Quinn Williams and CJ. Mosley and 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.680 has really nothing in their secondary other than Jamal Adams. 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:27.840 Mayfield's already been sacked eight times, and the Browns now 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:29.840 have lost David Djoku. I get it, he was not 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:32.840 particularly involved, but he is another weapon that teams at 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.360 least needed to account for him. As for the other 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.120 side of the balls, for their defense, look, Miles Garrett 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.800 is a beast, but the Jets were playing their second 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:43.720 and then third string quarterbacks and they have an absolutely 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:46.520 terrible offensive line. I know the Rams offensive line is 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:48.720 not what it was last year, and they've already got 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.440 some backups in already. They may be missing Austin Blythe 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.440 in this game, so it's possible. But I'm not overly 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:57.160 excited about the Browns defense just because they had a 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:59.960 good performance against the Jets. Now, as for the ram 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:02.040 I get it, they have not looked like world beaders. 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.720 It's been a long time since Jared Goff really showed 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:05.960 what he can do. I think it might be ten 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.280 straight games that he's been or maybe once in the 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.440 last ten games where he's been over three hundred yards 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.200 and that's it. And they barely snuck by a Carolina 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:17.199 team with a Cam Newton struggling, and they barely, not barely, 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:20.280 but they were close with the Saints and of course 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:23.520