Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We did a pretty
Speaker 1: successful week last week, going four and oh with the
Speaker 1: Bills laying one and a half against the Giants, the
Speaker 1: Chargers Colts coming in under forty eight points, the Titans
Speaker 1: and Colts coming in under forty three and a half,
Speaker 1: and Sony Michelle rushing for more than seventy five yards.
Speaker 1: Our guest last week, Andrew Kelly, had more of a
Speaker 1: mixed bag, hitting on his Cowboys minus five over the
Speaker 1: Redskins and Cooper Cup over eighty yards receiving, but he
Speaker 1: missed on the Titans minus three and the Chiefs Raiders
Speaker 1: over fifty three and a half. Let's see if we
Speaker 1: can follow it up with an even better week while
Speaker 1: looking at to be honest, a pretty tough slate in
Speaker 1: my opinion, with me today to break down some of
Speaker 1: our best bets, a bet to avoid, and our favorite
Speaker 1: player prop bet. Is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer
Speaker 1: at bangbook dot com and host of Bang the Book Radio.
Speaker 1: You can find them on Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam,
Speaker 1: how you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well. Dan, How are you?
Speaker 1: I'm doing great, buddy. You are the first two time
Speaker 1: guest on this podcast. How does that feel.
Speaker 2: I am very honored, very very honored. Thank you so
Speaker 2: much for having me.
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I did. I really enjoyed when you were
Speaker 1: on the first time. Do you agree with me that
Speaker 1: this late is really really ugly.
Speaker 2: Well, you said that you want to talk about a
Speaker 2: game to avoid, and if I could, I'd avoid the
Speaker 2: entire NFL card. It's brutal this week, and the thing
Speaker 2: of it is, even the teams that don't have substantial injuries,
Speaker 2: I think that they're very high variance types of games.
Speaker 2: So it's gonna be a tough week in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I think I agree. Well, we are here to navigate
Speaker 1: you through it, and real quick. Before we get into
Speaker 1: the show, I do want to remind everyone about our
Speaker 1: September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet.
Speaker 1: Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or
Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com. And if you entered last month's
Speaker 1: contest you are automatically entered into this month, so no
Speaker 1: worries there, all right, Adam, As always, we're going to
Speaker 1: get started with pick six, where we are both going
Speaker 1: to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend,
Speaker 1: either against the spread or on the over under. And
Speaker 1: as always, I will note at the outset that we're
Speaker 1: recording this shortly before kickoff of the Thursday night game,
Speaker 1: so we're not going to be making any picks on
Speaker 1: the Titans Jaguars game, even if we wanted to. But
Speaker 1: if you want to see how I picked that game,
Speaker 1: you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to
Speaker 1: show you how I and basically every betting expert who
Speaker 1: makes picks on the site made their picks for every game.
Speaker 1: And we're also going to be using the bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com consensus odds in making our picks. Here. Those are
Speaker 1: the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market.
Speaker 1: All right, buddy, start us off. What's your first pick?
Speaker 2: I gotta say, you said pick six. I thought we're
Speaker 2: gonna talk about Jameis Winston for a little while before
Speaker 2: we got into these picks. But you know, for me,
Speaker 2: like I said, I mean, I think this is such
Speaker 2: a challenging NFL card, so some of these may have
Speaker 2: a little bit lower of a degree of confidence than
Speaker 2: I would typically have in the NFL. But we'll start
Speaker 2: with the Detroit Lions, and the consensus line out there
Speaker 2: now over at betting pros is six and a half. Look,
Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of those instances where the
Speaker 2: Lions are coming in pretty healthy overall, nothing that stands
Speaker 2: out too much. The Eagles have all kinds of issues.
Speaker 2: Doug Peterson canceled practice on Wednesday. They just went ahead
Speaker 2: and had a walk through. And what really worries me
Speaker 2: about this game, and we see this sometimes in the NFL.
Speaker 2: With these big numbers, you've got to get some margin.
Speaker 2: And for the Eagles, the running game isn't doing anything,
Speaker 2: and what half of their able bodied receivers are out
Speaker 2: for this game, So I think it's really tough for
Speaker 2: them to get margin. Tough for the wide receivers to
Speaker 2: get separation and help Carson Wentz out, and also too
Speaker 2: to get margin with a secondary as bad as the
Speaker 2: Eagles secondary has been here so far this season. I
Speaker 2: think Matt Stafford can move the football for the Lions.
Speaker 2: I think the Lions take this game really seriously. Philadelphia's
Speaker 2: banged up, and they've got a short week and play
Speaker 2: Green Bay on Thursday night. A lot of check marks
Speaker 2: in the Lions box for me. So I know it's
Speaker 2: tough to take a Lions team out on the road,
Speaker 2: but I think six and a half it's a little
Speaker 2: bit too much in this game.
Speaker 1: I agree with you completely. Actually, they're now one of
Speaker 1: my picks, of course, because I don't want to double
Speaker 1: up with you, but I agree I would take the
Speaker 1: Lions here now. Yeah, I think I'm not sure exactly
Speaker 1: what it was when it first opened or maybe before,
Speaker 1: you know, the Sunday Night game. I think it was
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. It might have been at
Speaker 1: eight when it first out of curiosity. How would you
Speaker 1: have felt about the line if it was at seven
Speaker 1: and a half, if let's say Deshaun Jackson and Alshon
Speaker 1: Jeffrey were healthy for this game, because it sounds like
Speaker 1: both are gonna miss as of right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I like the Lions. I like
Speaker 2: the Lions to begin with. On the opener at seven
Speaker 2: and a half or eight, it's you know, a little
Speaker 2: bit disappointing. I know you and I are both in
Speaker 2: the Super Contest. It's disappointing that the Lions are plus
Speaker 2: six out there in that you can find six and
Speaker 2: a half in the market, and that they were over
Speaker 2: a touchdown early in the week. But I mean, look,
Speaker 2: Philadelphia is supposed to be all about explosiveness. Five yards
Speaker 2: per play in two games here so far. I had
Speaker 2: the Eagles last week in the Super Contest and they
Speaker 2: were a half yard from winning. They were fourth and
Speaker 2: three stop from winning. But they were not the right
Speaker 2: side in that game. They did not play well at all.
Speaker 2: So this isn't just sour grapes and going against them.
Speaker 2: It's just something misfiring with that offense. And I don't
Speaker 2: know if it's Wentz shaking off the rust or if
Speaker 2: it's all injury related, but I don't have a lot
Speaker 2: of confidence in the Eagles laying big numbers against you know,
Speaker 2: anybody not named the Dolphins of the Jets right now.
Speaker 1: And honestly, the Lions have been a lot better than
Speaker 1: I expected. I mean, they could easily beat two and
Speaker 1: zero if they had managed to hold on against the
Speaker 1: Cardinals instead of taking the tie in Week one. Their
Speaker 1: defense was played a little bit better than I expected.
Speaker 1: The offense, you know, it's given Matt Stafford a bunch
Speaker 1: of different weapons. Carrie on Johnson has looked, you know fine,
Speaker 1: maybe hasn't taken the leap yet that maybe we all expected,
Speaker 1: although we did have that long touchdown last week. So
Speaker 1: in the end, this is for me. I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I'm on your side for sure. It's as much about
Speaker 1: the Lions as it is about the Eagles here, so
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Even on the road. I do
Speaker 1: like the Lions plus six and a half, so I'm
Speaker 1: with you on that one. My first pick, I'm going
Speaker 1: with an over under here, and it's under forty four
Speaker 1: on the Bengals at the Bills. Now, I also lean
Speaker 1: a little bit towards the Bengals here to cover the
Speaker 1: six point spread, but that's not going to be one
Speaker 1: of my picks. The Bills' first two games have total
Speaker 1: thirty three and forty two against the Giants and the Jets,
Speaker 1: and they put up twenty eight points last week against
Speaker 1: the Giants, but I don't expect them to do that here. First,
Speaker 1: the Giants defense, as I said last week, is really
Speaker 1: just abysmal. They might not quite be at the Dolphins level,
Speaker 1: but they're really not that far off. And I fully
Speaker 1: admit that whatever the Bengals did on defense last week
Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers was not actual defense. They
Speaker 1: had one of the worst tackling performances I've ever seen
Speaker 1: in watching NFL games, But that does not really strike
Speaker 1: me necessarily as this sustainable phenomenon. They really didn't look
Speaker 1: like that against Seattle in Week one. Now you add
Speaker 1: to that the fact that Devin Singletary is almost certainly
Speaker 1: out for this game. And I love Frank More, but
Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say that the Bengals aren't
Speaker 1: going to be giving up, you know, close to two
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty rushing yards. I like Josh Allen, but
Speaker 1: still have the accuracy concerns. I don't hate Cincinnati's cornerbacks,
Speaker 1: and I'm a little concerned. You know, there are some
Speaker 1: things when I was digging deep into this game, sounds
Speaker 1: like Carl Lawson may miss this game, which takes away,
Speaker 1: you know, since he's pass rush. But really, in the end,
Speaker 1: what I think is this is probably gonna wind up
Speaker 1: being a close and relatively low scoring game. I like
Speaker 1: the Bills defense as a general manner, and you know,
Speaker 1: look the Bengals have issues on offense. Of course, they
Speaker 1: still haven't recovered from Jonah Williams injury. I don't know
Speaker 1: if Cordy Glenn is going to be back from the concussion.
Speaker 1: I don't expect them to have a giant offensive performance either,
Speaker 1: especially against the Bills defense. And again, Buffalo, for me,
Speaker 1: I went to school there, and it's not rocket science.
Speaker 1: It's a tough place to play, even when you're not
Speaker 1: in the winter. You've got the Bills, the Sabers and
Speaker 1: Duff Swings, and that's pretty much all you've got in
Speaker 1: that city. The fans are going to be raucous. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to be tough for Cincinnati to generate
Speaker 1: much on offense. I don't think Buffalo has the offense
Speaker 1: to carry that over under really by themselves. So I
Speaker 1: see a close game here. If I were to pick
Speaker 1: the spread, I'd probably go with the Bengals. But more
Speaker 1: than the spread, I like the under here at forty four.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's scary. I kind of like the side a
Speaker 2: little bit too. But I'm on the same wavelength with
Speaker 2: you with regards to the under. I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: when you look at what happened last week, you know.
Speaker 2: And I got to see this first hand with Kyle
Speaker 2: Shanahan when he was the offensive cordator in Cleveland. He
Speaker 2: took a collection of bums and made a decent offense
Speaker 2: out of the wide receivers. The guy's just a brilliant
Speaker 2: play designer, a very good play caller. Brian Daboles not
Speaker 2: that guy, you know. Last week the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: got a bunch of yards on screens, got some yards
Speaker 2: on mistackles. I would expect Cincinnati to play a little
Speaker 2: bit better, you know, in the back seven, play a
Speaker 2: little bit better with their safeties here in this one,
Speaker 2: because you don't have to worry about getting beat over
Speaker 2: the top by Josh Allen the way that you do
Speaker 2: with Jimmy Garoppolo or some of the other guys that
Speaker 2: are out there. So I agree with you. I think
Speaker 2: Cincinnati can, you know, button batting down the hatches a
Speaker 2: little bit here. And like you said about the Bills,
Speaker 2: I mean also too for the Bills. I mean, if
Speaker 2: they're up in the second half of this game. And
Speaker 2: maybe this is part of the reason why I kind
Speaker 2: of like the Bengals a little bit. Buffalo at three
Speaker 2: and oh against New England at three and oh at
Speaker 2: New Era Field next week. There's gonna be a look
Speaker 2: ahead factor in the second half and in particular in
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. If the Bills have this game in hand.
Speaker 1: That's the thing. It's not like this is a three
Speaker 1: point spread. I mean that's six points. It opened I
Speaker 1: think closer to four when it first hit four or
Speaker 1: four and a half. That might be a different story.
Speaker 1: Although you know, I'm not going to be surprised if
Speaker 1: the Bengals come away here with a win. I'm not
Speaker 1: going to predict that necessarily, but six points that's a
Speaker 1: pretty big margin right there. And if you think you
Speaker 1: know that basically for the reasons that you said, I don't.
Speaker 1: I certainly don't see the Bills running away with this
Speaker 1: game at all. And I certainly could see them basically
Speaker 1: looking at what happened last week win Cincinnati and thinking,
Speaker 1: you know what, we're gonna be able to take care
Speaker 1: business at home. We've got the Pats coming up, maybe
Speaker 1: we can make a stand there and looking past them.
Speaker 1: And I agree with that, and really, for me, just
Speaker 1: last week, you know, I agree Shanahan and he had
Speaker 1: a couple of brilliant plays, but really the tackling was
Speaker 1: so abysmal, and they're not that bad. That was just
Speaker 1: a crazy sort of it struck me as a one
Speaker 1: off because they really were not that bad against Seattle.
Speaker 1: So I do expect a close game here. I think
Speaker 1: we both kind of are on the same wavelength, and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the under. So who's your second
Speaker 1: pick here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and one other quick point. You know, Buffalo great defense,
Speaker 2: great pass defense. You know, we know the Bengals are
Speaker 2: probably gonna throw a lot, but also you know, it
Speaker 2: seemed like reading some of the reports that were out there,
Speaker 2: Zach Taylor really wanted to get Joe Mixon more involved
Speaker 2: this week. I think that's kind of part of the
Speaker 2: thing that he's looking to do when we all know
Speaker 2: that there's a lot of hatred against running the football
Speaker 2: in the NFL these days, not throwing the ball, you're
Speaker 2: gonna move the ball in short or chunks. So that
Speaker 2: kind of plays into Buffalo's hands a little bit, you know,
Speaker 2: with regards to the under here in this one, as
Speaker 2: well as far as my next pick goes, Boy, this
Speaker 2: one's ugly, but you know what, I gotta look at
Speaker 2: the Raiders. I mean, they're plus nine and a half
Speaker 2: out there now on the consensus odds again eight and
Speaker 2: a half in the Super Contest, So not losing any
Speaker 2: key value or anything like that. Still would like to
Speaker 2: get the best line possible, But this was one that
Speaker 2: I isolated pretty quickly because you know, again you talk
Speaker 2: about the NFL, you talk about trying to get margin.
Speaker 2: Minnesota's gonna run the football, and if they run it
Speaker 2: down Oakland's rout and run for two hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: five two hundred and fifty yards, then sure I could
Speaker 2: see a path to them covering this number. But one
Speaker 2: thing that's really impressed me about Oakland so far this year.
Speaker 2: They played very well in the first half against Denver,
Speaker 2: and they played very well in the first quarter against
Speaker 2: Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes just took over the game.
Speaker 2: And that's gonna happen. I mean, Mahomes is gonna do
Speaker 2: that to much better teams than Oakland. But Oakland tried
Speaker 2: to change up a lot on defense last week. There
Speaker 2: were a lot of miscommunications, guys kind of running free
Speaker 2: on slant routes. Mahomes made some throws over the top
Speaker 2: where he got some long touchdown passes. Oakland's gonna play
Speaker 2: a simplified base defense here this week. Paul Gunther familiar
Speaker 2: with Mike Zimmer from their time together in Cincinnati. He'll
Speaker 2: have an idea of what the Vikings want to do.
Speaker 2: They're gonna sell out against the run. They'll make Kirk
Speaker 2: Cousins beat them. And I really haven't seen much from
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins that would suggest that he was gonna go
Speaker 2: out there and cover almost a double digit numbers. So
Speaker 2: for Oakland, look, they don't play a home game again
Speaker 2: until November third, And this is an angle I've looked
Speaker 2: at before in the NBA, in the NHL, the first
Speaker 2: game of a road trip, you get a team's best effort.
Speaker 2: They want to set the road trip off on the
Speaker 2: right foot. They're as fresh as they're going to be.
Speaker 2: I could get a really good effort from Oakland here
Speaker 2: this week. I'm not so sure about Minnesota coming off
Speaker 2: of last week's loss, and in a divisional sandwich with Chicago.
Speaker 1: On deck, that's you make a lot of really interesting points.
Speaker 1: And you know the thing about the Raiders defense last
Speaker 1: week is that it wasn't just that they played well
Speaker 1: in the first quarter and then Mahomes put up twenty
Speaker 1: eight points in the second quarter. Whi's true, but he
Speaker 1: didn't put up anything other than that. It was legitimately
Speaker 1: one quarter. For three quarters, they generally held the Chiefs
Speaker 1: in check. Now I know, of course, it's a little
Speaker 1: bit different. The Chiefs were ahead, so it's not exactly
Speaker 1: the same thing. But they have been much better, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, than what I expected. Now, this line, originally
Speaker 1: I think was close. It might have opened at seven
Speaker 1: and a half, and at that point I felt a
Speaker 1: little more comfortable with the Vikings. I don't think I
Speaker 1: feel comfortable either way on this game. I mean I
Speaker 1: have not. Part of me really expects this, and we'll
Speaker 1: talk about that. I'll mention them later in the player prop.
Speaker 1: I expect it to be a little bit more of
Speaker 1: a get right game for the Vikings. I think that
Speaker 1: they have just looked a little bit out of sorts.
Speaker 1: He had the first game where they won, but you know,
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins through ten passes. Then last week against the
Speaker 1: Packers they got way behind. You know, the passing game
Speaker 1: has obviously not been working. Cousins hasn't looked good really
Speaker 1: since he's been with the Vikings, but certainly not yet
Speaker 1: so I do see a scenario where they try to
Speaker 1: essentially open it up a little bit and put on
Speaker 1: more points rather than lean on the run, which I
Speaker 1: think they're going to do generally throughout the season. But
Speaker 1: at nine and a half, that's a big number. But
Speaker 1: for me, I don't know, it was a little scary
Speaker 1: to kind of take it. Nine and a half makes
Speaker 1: me lean towards the Raiders, But for me, I was
Speaker 1: a little worried about picking them.
Speaker 2: No, that's completely understandable. I mean, you know, the Raider
Speaker 2: is not exactly a team that's gained a whole lot
Speaker 2: of trust over the last few years. The thing of
Speaker 2: it for me is they're going to be prepared. You know,
Speaker 2: I think what we've seen so far from John Gruden.
Speaker 2: You know, obviously he doesn't get along with Mike Mayock,
Speaker 2: and you know, he's kind of put his own stamp
Speaker 2: on the personnel for this team. But they're usually prepared
Speaker 2: as long as they're not in a spot where they're
Speaker 2: gonna quit or something like that. The team is ready
Speaker 2: to go. Now if they get out talented, and that's
Speaker 2: very possible here against Minnesota, that's one thing. But I
Speaker 2: think that they're going to be ready to go here,
Speaker 2: and to me, I think when you're a big underdog
Speaker 2: and underdog of this magnitude, that's half the battle to
Speaker 2: be focused, to be engaged, to be ready to go
Speaker 2: out there and give a good performance. So Minnesota certainly
Speaker 2: can run it up and they can salt the game
Speaker 2: away with the running game if they want to. But
Speaker 2: I think Oakland's gonna be in a decent spot here.
Speaker 2: And again, like I said, I mean, you've got some
Speaker 2: injuries here. Once again, injuries in play with every game,
Speaker 2: some injuries in the back seven for Minnesota. Anthony bar
Speaker 2: did in practice on Thursday. They've got some other guys.
Speaker 2: Mackenzie Alexander is not gonna play, so maybe Oakland could
Speaker 2: take advantage of that through the air, and especially in
Speaker 2: the middle of the field with how they've been using
Speaker 2: the tight end so much.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you make a lot of go points.
Speaker 1: It's not something that I'm running away from. And if
Speaker 1: I was forced to pick one side, I would go
Speaker 1: with the Raiders. But for now, it's really because the
Speaker 1: spread has gotten much higher than I expected. Again, I
Speaker 1: don't know what you mentioned in the Super contest. It
Speaker 1: might be eight I think, but at nine and a half.
Speaker 1: That's something that's a little too dicey for me to
Speaker 1: even think about relying on the Vikings, even though I
Speaker 1: could see a scenario where they really run it up
Speaker 1: switching gears to my second pick. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you're going to be too happy with it, because you
Speaker 1: are a Cleveland fan, if I remember.
Speaker 2: Correctly, right, yes, sir?
Speaker 1: All right, well, I am taking the Rams laying three
Speaker 1: in Cleveland. Now this is a really, really, really public play,
Speaker 1: which makes me nervous because really you always I never
Speaker 1: want to be on that side. And it's something like
Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the bets and the money is
Speaker 1: coming in on the Rams. I really am surprised that
Speaker 1: this is where the numbers came. Now, I'm a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: I watched Monday Night pretty closely. If anything, I downgraded
Speaker 1: them after that game. I mean, the offense, for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: looks really really stagnant. The late eighty nine yard slant
Speaker 1: to Beckham makes the offensive totals look better than they were,
Speaker 1: but they had very little going on offensively for most
Speaker 1: of that game. And that is against the Jets team
Speaker 1: that was missing both Quinn Williams and CJ. Mosley and
Speaker 1: has really nothing in their secondary other than Jamal Adams.
Speaker 1: Mayfield's already been sacked eight times, and the Browns now
Speaker 1: have lost David Djoku. I get it, he was not
Speaker 1: particularly involved, but he is another weapon that teams at
Speaker 1: least needed to account for him. As for the other
Speaker 1: side of the balls, for their defense, look, Miles Garrett
Speaker 1: is a beast, but the Jets were playing their second
Speaker 1: and then third string quarterbacks and they have an absolutely
Speaker 1: terrible offensive line. I know the Rams offensive line is
Speaker 1: not what it was last year, and they've already got
Speaker 1: some backups in already. They may be missing Austin Blythe
Speaker 1: in this game, so it's possible. But I'm not overly
Speaker 1: excited about the Browns defense just because they had a
Speaker 1: good performance against the Jets. Now, as for the ram
Speaker 1: I get it, they have not looked like world beaders.
Speaker 1: It's been a long time since Jared Goff really showed
Speaker 1: what he can do. I think it might be ten
Speaker 1: straight games that he's been or maybe once in the
Speaker 1: last ten games where he's been over three hundred yards
Speaker 1: and that's it. And they barely snuck by a Carolina
Speaker 1: team with a Cam Newton struggling, and they barely, not barely,
Speaker 1: but they were close with the Saints and of course
Speaker 1: got lucky with the fact that that touchdown was not counted,
Speaker 1: and then they went by, you know, a Teddy Bridgewater
Speaker 1: led team. So I just in the end, I think
Speaker 1: they are a better team here. I like a lot
Speaker 1: of the Browns pieces on defense. I like Denzel Ward,
Speaker 1: and I like Greedy Williams. But you know, Golf has
Speaker 1: four weapons on any given play that he can easily
Speaker 1: go through. They still have a strong defense with Aaron Donald,
Speaker 1: who it sounds like the back injury is not a
Speaker 1: big deal. They still have the strong corners with Talib
Speaker 1: and Peters. And again, Cleveland's coming off a short week
Speaker 1: here in a game where Baker Mayfield was still taking
Speaker 1: hits at the very end of a blowout game. I
Speaker 1: know we've got the whole West Coast team traveling east,
Speaker 1: but I just do not see it right now with
Speaker 1: the Browns. I don't know how they're going to long term,
Speaker 1: but right now I am not at all confident in
Speaker 1: them giving the Rams here laying three in Cleveland.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cleveland fan, but you know what I mean, you
Speaker 2: have no fandom when it comes to your money. So
Speaker 2: I'm on the same side here with you as the Rams.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you know, as you mentioned, Baker Mayfield
Speaker 2: just hasn't looked very good and he's had some time
Speaker 2: to throw, you know, I mean the pocket has collapsed
Speaker 2: a few times, but he's also been holding the ball
Speaker 2: way too long underthrowing guys. I mean, Odell made two
Speaker 2: big plays in that game against the Jets, and that
Speaker 2: was a pretty big majority of their offense. So I
Speaker 2: agree with you about the Browns offense, But what I
Speaker 2: want to focus on, since you covered most of it,
Speaker 2: is the defense. You know. Yeah, you've got Miles Garrett,
Speaker 2: You've got Olivia Olivia Vernon on the other side, but
Speaker 2: in this game, you're not gonna have Christian Kirksey for
Speaker 2: the Browns. And to me, I know you said before
Speaker 2: we started recording here that you're a Jets fan. You know,
Speaker 2: seej Moseley being out last week really hurt that defense. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think Christian Kirksey being out for the Browns really
Speaker 2: hurts their defense as well. They're young in the secondary
Speaker 2: with Greedy Williams and Denzel war and then now it
Speaker 2: was like probably Mack Wilson on then Taki Taki, the
Speaker 2: kid out of what is it Utah? You know, I
Speaker 2: think those guys are gonna be playing with Joe Schobert
Speaker 2: and Showbert's a great run stopper, he's not a good
Speaker 2: pass coverage linebacker. Sean McVay is going to be able
Speaker 2: to attack that second level of the Browns defense here,
Speaker 2: and he's gonna be able to do it with quick throws.
Speaker 2: He's got the receivers to do it. And what is
Speaker 2: the best defense against a good pass rush to get
Speaker 2: the ball out quickly. I think Sean McVay has got
Speaker 2: a great game plan coming up this week. The Browns
Speaker 2: defense is gonna miss Kurtsey badly. And also, if this
Speaker 2: becomes any kind of shootout, and I don't think it
Speaker 2: will spoiler alert, but Cleveland can't score with the Rams.
Speaker 2: They just can't do it at this point in time,
Speaker 2: with how disjointed that offense looks. So I'm on the
Speaker 2: same side as you here. I like the Rams as
Speaker 2: much as it pains me to say that. I will
Speaker 2: say if it goes back up to three and a half,
Speaker 2: which is certainly a possibility here, all the threes out
Speaker 2: there with extra juice, I'd like it less, you know,
Speaker 2: just because crazy things can't happen in these primetime games.
Speaker 2: But the best way I can put it is this,
Speaker 2: this is a big boy game for Cleveland, for a
Speaker 2: team that has not been in big boy games for
Speaker 2: a very long time. The spotlight is on the Rams,
Speaker 2: who know they haven't played well. This almost feels like
Speaker 2: the get right game that you referenced for Minnesota, but
Speaker 2: for the Rams.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, yeah, I something about Cleveland just does
Speaker 1: not look right right now. Whatever it is, they are
Speaker 1: not in sync. They did not look good against the
Speaker 1: Titans in the first game. They I don't care what
Speaker 1: the final score was. They did not look good against
Speaker 1: the Jets. That should have been you know, an easy
Speaker 1: easy at least on offense. They really should have been
Speaker 1: able to put up points much, you know, more easily
Speaker 1: than they did. The Jets defense again without Moseley, without
Speaker 1: Quinn Williams, they just they did not have anything that
Speaker 1: should have been able to stop them. And Mayfield just
Speaker 1: the wrong. You nailed it with him holding the ball
Speaker 1: way too long. I just feel like, in the end,
Speaker 1: it worries me that the public is so on this
Speaker 1: and it feels to me like you know, I would
Speaker 1: think that the it would be moving a little higher
Speaker 1: at this point the spread, but in the end, it's
Speaker 1: staying three. For now, I'm gonna take it at three.
Speaker 1: And I feel kind of comfortable with that, even though
Speaker 1: it's something about it, especially because the public's all in
Speaker 1: on it feels a little off. So I'm gonna stick
Speaker 1: with them at three. Who's your third pick here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one, This line kind of got away from
Speaker 2: me a little bit here today since I mentioned the
Speaker 2: three plays, but I'll stick with it here for continuity purposes.
Speaker 2: Talking more about this Rams in Cleveland game. I mean, look,
Speaker 2: I like the under in this game. You know, I
Speaker 2: think you've got two defensive lines that can get after
Speaker 2: the quarterback. And as much as I think McVeigh plans
Speaker 2: for you know, quick out slants, hot routes, all that
Speaker 2: kind of thing to slow down Miles Garrett and Vernon,
Speaker 2: I mean they're still gonna get there. You know, Miles
Speaker 2: Garrett is a freak of nature. He's gonna get there
Speaker 2: no matter what you try to do, no matter what
Speaker 2: kind of help you put over there, He's gonna find
Speaker 2: a way to disrupt Jared Goff And we all know
Speaker 2: about the Jared Goff home road splits. He's not good
Speaker 2: on the road, and maybe that's one of the reasons
Speaker 2: you and I do have a little bit of hesitation
Speaker 2: about the Rams minus three, But man, I don't see
Speaker 2: it from Baker. I just don't. And I know the
Speaker 2: Rams last year weren't a very good defense. But Wade
Speaker 2: Phillips is going to confuse this kid. He's gonna give
Speaker 2: him a lot of different coverages to look at. Maybe
Speaker 2: OBJ and Jarvis get free, but they're missing in Djoku.
Speaker 2: Chubb doesn't seem to have that same burst early on
Speaker 2: in the year that he had last season. The offensive
Speaker 2: line has been not good at run blocking, and you know,
Speaker 2: they've done as good as they can pass blocking, but
Speaker 2: Baker's kind of screwed the pooch on that. I don't
Speaker 2: see the Browns doing a whole lot offensively in this game,
Speaker 2: and I don't know how much the Rams will do either,
Speaker 2: enough to cover the number, I think, but still I
Speaker 2: like the under here in this one. I believe it's
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half forty eight now, but there
Speaker 2: were some fifties earlier on in the week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, even at forty seven and a half, which is
Speaker 1: where the consensus line is. I'm with you. I again,
Speaker 1: it's it's really just whatever is going on. I mean,
Speaker 1: the fact that they put up I think it was
Speaker 1: twenty three points in the end against the Jets again
Speaker 1: a really late slant against an exhausted Jets defense that
Speaker 1: you know, Odell took that the house. They were settling
Speaker 1: for field goal. They just were not moving the ball
Speaker 1: particularly well. The offense seems disjointed, and the Rams, I mean,
Speaker 1: they're no longer this really crazy high powered offense, at
Speaker 1: least they haven't been for a while. They've still got
Speaker 1: tons of weapons, but on the road, I don't really
Speaker 1: expect them to drop a thirty spot necessarily or anything
Speaker 1: like that. So I am entirely with you on that one.
Speaker 1: I do like the under at forty seven and a
Speaker 1: half for my third pick. I don't know if we're
Speaker 1: going to be an agreement here, buddy, because I feel
Speaker 1: a little nervous about it. But I just in the end,
Speaker 1: when I keep breaking it down, I keep coming back
Speaker 1: to it, and that's actually the Saints getting four in Seattle.
Speaker 1: So the public, I'm going against the public, which always
Speaker 1: makes me feel a little bit better. I think in
Speaker 1: the end, I just don't think Seattle is all that good.
Speaker 1: They've won their two games by a combined three points,
Speaker 1: which includes a home win against a poor and banged
Speaker 1: up Bengals team. They barely squeak by Mason Rudolph. And look,
Speaker 1: we know what their offense is at this point. You know,
Speaker 1: they have Wilson, they have a couple of playmakers, but
Speaker 1: it's still Brian Schottneimer running the offense. They still want
Speaker 1: to lean on this conservative run. First game. I think
Speaker 1: they will be extra conservative right now, trying to win
Speaker 1: the game with their defense. And their defense is solid,
Speaker 1: right They've still got Bobby Wagner, They've got kJ Wright,
Speaker 1: they obviously traded for Jadeveon Clowney. They should get Ziggy
Speaker 1: ansa back, which is going to make me a little worrisome.
Speaker 1: But the thing about it is the Seahawks basically have
Speaker 1: done no surprises through their first two games. On defense,
Speaker 1: They're just running a base defense throughout there, leaving their
Speaker 1: linebackers out there. They want to be able to stop
Speaker 1: the run, and they have so far, but they're not
Speaker 1: really stopping the pass. I mean, we saw Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: throw for over four hundred yards in the first game.
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph moved the ball well, and they're struggling against
Speaker 1: defending pass catching running backs, which is exactly what Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara does. They're averaging nearly seven yards per target. That's
Speaker 1: going to be a problem. And really, above all, for me,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are basically saying, this is our defense. This
Speaker 1: gives us the best chance to win. We're leaving our
Speaker 1: linebackers out there. This is what we're going to be doing.
Speaker 1: And if you give Sean Payton a week to prepare
Speaker 1: for that, even with Teddy Bridgewater, even with Taysom Hill
Speaker 1: or whatever he's gonna do, I feel like they're gonna
Speaker 1: find ways to exploit that. Now, I'm not crazy bullish
Speaker 1: on the Saints. Generally speaking, they're probably gonna be without
Speaker 1: Trey Kuan Smith. They've got problems on their offensive line,
Speaker 1: but I think Sean Payton is gonna figure out a
Speaker 1: way to attack them. Even with Teddy Bridgewater, who is
Speaker 1: a competent quarterback, the Saints overall have a strong defense.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a close game. I see
Speaker 1: it as more like a three point game one way
Speaker 1: or another. So for me, I'm gonna take the four points,
Speaker 1: but I'll be interested to hear whether or not you agree.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a tough one for me. I know
Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about games who would avoid, and this
Speaker 2: was one of them that was in consideration for me.
Speaker 2: I don't know what Teddy Bridgewater is gonna look like here,
Speaker 2: And again, what happens a lot of times the NFL
Speaker 2: is such a you know, it's all about immediate reaction.
Speaker 2: It's all about, you know, overreaction when it comes to
Speaker 2: things from a betting standpoint, Yeah, Bridgewater looked terrible last week.
Speaker 2: But also, I mean, you're all franchised future Hall of
Speaker 2: Fame quarterback went out guy who really hasn't been hurt
Speaker 2: very much over the course of his career. You're not
Speaker 2: really expecting that over the course of the game if
Speaker 2: you're Bridgewater. But I feel better if he came in
Speaker 2: and played well. Yeah. Absolutely, But now you've get a
Speaker 2: week full of practice. And not only that, New Orleans
Speaker 2: stayed on the West coast. You know, they didn't come
Speaker 2: back home and then go back out there. They stayed
Speaker 2: on the West Coast, away from the local media, away
Speaker 2: from their families. So they've been one hundred and ten
Speaker 2: percent focused on this game and focused on putting Bridgewater
Speaker 2: in a position to succeed. Now whether or not he
Speaker 2: can do that, I don't really know. You know, that's
Speaker 2: something that we're gonna have to wait until the game
Speaker 2: to figure out. But I agree with you. You know, by
Speaker 2: and large, I mean Seattle not a team I had
Speaker 2: very high hopes for. Was against them last week with
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh in the Super Contest, and of course Big Ben
Speaker 2: goes out. Russ was much better last week than I expected.
Speaker 2: They kind of put it in his hands a little
Speaker 2: bit more than usual. If they have to do that
Speaker 2: again this week, I don't know if lightning can strike twice.
Speaker 2: So if I had to play it, I agree with
Speaker 2: your position on the Saints. I just don't feel like
Speaker 2: I have to play it this week.
Speaker 1: No, I understand, as we talked about, it's a rough slate.
Speaker 1: It is a really, really rough slate, and I'm not
Speaker 1: jumping for joy over this game. I feel much more
Speaker 1: confident in the Rams pick. But for this one, again,
Speaker 1: it's just something where I think it's a whole different story.
Speaker 1: And you basically pointed this out. If you have Bridgewater
Speaker 1: come in in the middle of a game where he's
Speaker 1: not preparing to start, they haven't game planned around him.
Speaker 1: His strengths, surprise surprise, are different than what Drew breeses are,
Speaker 1: So I think with a week to prepare, I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to devise a game plan that's
Speaker 1: gonna be able to do it. So in the end, look,
Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks, regardless of ending else, I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna look at this as probably something where they're
Speaker 1: not gonna try to be explosive. It's not gonna be
Speaker 1: like last week against the Steelers with Wilson really doing.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna play just sort of a strong game,
Speaker 1: lean on their defense a little bit, and I think
Speaker 1: in the end it's gonna be a close game within
Speaker 1: the four points either way. But I agree with you,
Speaker 1: I'm not overly confident in it, but it is one
Speaker 1: of the ones that I feel strongest about this week,
Speaker 1: which should tell you something about this week. As we said,
Speaker 1: all right, let's just quickly recap before we move on.
Speaker 1: You've got the Lions plus six and a half over
Speaker 1: the Eagles, the Raiders plus nine and a half over
Speaker 1: the Vikings, and under forty seven and a half on
Speaker 1: the Browns against the Rams. I also like the Browns
Speaker 1: against the Rams, but I like the Rams laying three
Speaker 1: in that game. I also like the Saints getting four
Speaker 1: from the Seahawks and under forty four on the Bengals
Speaker 1: at the Bills. So we'll review those next week and
Speaker 1: hopefully we'll we'll have some good picks here. Now, before
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Speaker 1: let's move on to our next segment, which I have
Speaker 1: called It's a trap where we list the game that
Speaker 1: we are both avoiding. Now, do you mind if I
Speaker 1: go first on this one? Just because I don't want
Speaker 1: you stealing it? This is like the one game that
Speaker 1: I'm really desperate to avoid.
Speaker 2: You cool with that, absolutely go ahead?
Speaker 1: All right for me? It is you're right, I can
Speaker 1: do what I want. Why I'm even ask for permission?
Speaker 1: It's the Bucks and the Giants. I believe the line
Speaker 1: is Bucks laying six and a half. Now. I like
Speaker 1: the Bucks actually as a team. I think their defense
Speaker 1: is stronger than most people realize, and I would have
Speaker 1: liked them probably at minus six and a half against
Speaker 1: Eli Manning, and realistically, I think their odds probably improve
Speaker 1: a little bit. With Daniel Jones, as Rufus Peabody and
Speaker 1: I talked about on Monday, but there's just too much
Speaker 1: of an unknown factor here for me to really want
Speaker 1: to get involved with it. Jones looked great in the preseason,
Speaker 1: I don't really know how much of that, if any,
Speaker 1: will be on display during the regular season. And with
Speaker 1: someone like Teddy Bridgewater who we just talked about, and
Speaker 1: a coach like Sean Payton, I feel much more comfortable
Speaker 1: as to what I'm going to be able to expect
Speaker 1: when I see them in action with this one, though
Speaker 1: I'm personally staying away. I don't know how you feel
Speaker 1: about it.
Speaker 2: I'm actually you know, I mentioned both of us being
Speaker 2: in the Super Contest and it's really hard because, as
Speaker 2: you and I said, this is kind of like having
Speaker 2: bye weeks where you just kind of have to cross
Speaker 2: games off the list. I actually like the Giants in
Speaker 2: this one, so this is one that I do kind
Speaker 2: of have a little bit of an opinion on. I
Speaker 2: think their defense is better than they've played. I think
Speaker 2: Kellen Moore in that offense with Dak Prescott, they're gonna
Speaker 2: blitz a lot of teams here this year like they
Speaker 2: did to the Giants. And then also, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 2: you lost to Buffalo, but you know, Buffalo is a
Speaker 2: pretty good team. I think I don't think people are
Speaker 2: giving Buffalo enough credit market wide for what they've been
Speaker 2: able to do here in the first two games. So
Speaker 2: I actually like the Giants a little bit. And maybe
Speaker 2: it's more of a fade of that Bucks offense and
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston in particular, because I do agree with you
Speaker 2: Bruce arians is doing work with that defense, and I
Speaker 2: think that's what we kind of all expected.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, Todd Bowles, whatever he's doing over there,
Speaker 1: is really working with him. I mean, look, you might
Speaker 1: be right about the Giants defense. I mean they allowed
Speaker 1: twenty eight points, you know, to the Bills. They just
Speaker 1: I don't see them. They don't have a pass rush. Really,
Speaker 1: I don't like their secondary outside of you know, Jenoris Jenkins.
Speaker 1: It just it strikes me as something where I don't
Speaker 1: really know whether or not they're going to be able
Speaker 1: to keep it close. And for me, it's just I
Speaker 1: don't really know what to look at with Jones. I know,
Speaker 1: I think you know a lot of sharp beetters are
Speaker 1: more in on them. I don't know. Also, how you
Speaker 1: if you changed your view on it with then with
Speaker 1: Eli Manning, did you like the game before Jones took over.
Speaker 2: No, I wouldn't have looked at it with you. I
Speaker 2: think Jones can make throws that Eli can't at this
Speaker 2: stage of his career, and you know, maybe help that
Speaker 2: defense out a little bit. I mean that's part of
Speaker 2: it too, is you know, if you've got a bad
Speaker 2: offense or a very inefficient offense at that it exposes
Speaker 2: a bad defense in a hurry, especially in the NFL.
Speaker 2: So I think Jones can make some of those throws,
Speaker 2: and also too, depending on the game plan they come
Speaker 2: up with. Saquon Barkley is the best player on the field,
Speaker 2: and I know Mike Evans is out there for Tampa Bay. Well,
Speaker 2: Barkley is the best player on the field. He's gonna
Speaker 2: get more touches now with the Daniel Jones era, So
Speaker 2: I think that helps the Giants too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it should be interesting. I think for me,
Speaker 1: I just I don't ever read on Jones. I have
Speaker 1: no idea what he's going to look like here in
Speaker 1: his first game. I know he looked great in the preseason,
Speaker 1: but it's just something where something like this, when you
Speaker 1: have these unknown in these variables, I like to stay away.
Speaker 1: I will note though, that I am going to have
Speaker 1: some action on the game because Points Bett is offering
Speaker 1: boosted odds for Daniel Jones to throw a touchdown pass
Speaker 1: on Sunday. So the odds for Jones to throw a
Speaker 1: touchdown pass if you didn't have the boost of odds,
Speaker 1: are currently at minus three thirty five, which makes sense
Speaker 1: you assume that he's probably going to throw at least
Speaker 1: one touchdown pass. But with the boosted odds that points
Speaker 1: Bet is offering, it's even money. I mean that that's nuts.
Speaker 1: The odds that he's gonna throw at least one touchdown
Speaker 1: pass are really really strong, and with the promotion. You
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Speaker 1: com slash Jones. All Right, buddy, what's your pick to avoid?
Speaker 2: My pick to avoid here, I'm gonna go one spot
Speaker 2: down by rotation number, and that's four seventy nine, four
Speaker 2: eighty Carolina and Arizona. I mean, look, there's a very
Speaker 2: good chance that Carolina is better this week without Cam Newton,
Speaker 2: just because of how Cam Newton looked dealing with that
Speaker 2: foot injury last week. But I don't know that for sure.
Speaker 2: I don't know what you get from Kyle Allen in
Speaker 2: this game, and also too for Arizona. Look, I know
Speaker 2: they hung with Baltimore last last week and a lot
Speaker 2: of credit for that, but once again, you know they've
Speaker 2: played really the equivalent of one good quarter in that
Speaker 2: game on offense, and that's just not going to do
Speaker 2: it more often than not. I know they got that
Speaker 2: tie with the Lions in Week one. I don't know
Speaker 2: where Kyler Murray's at here. I'd like to think that
Speaker 2: maybe Cliff Kingsbury improves this team as we go along,
Speaker 2: but also i'd like to think they he'd be smart
Speaker 2: enough not to kick field goals inside the five. But
Speaker 2: since he keeps doing that, and since I've been ranting
Speaker 2: about coaching all year long on my podcast, I don't
Speaker 2: know where this game ends up going. So this is
Speaker 2: a definite stay away for me.
Speaker 1: I think I'm glad you brought that up because Arizona
Speaker 1: against Baltimore and the field goals last week was really,
Speaker 1: really maddening. I mean, I don't get it. I kind
Speaker 1: of assume that they're going to learn their lesson from that.
Speaker 1: But it is interesting because the point spread I think
Speaker 1: swung roughly five points. I think the Panthers were laying
Speaker 1: two and a half before the Newton injury. If I
Speaker 1: had that correct and now they're getting two and a
Speaker 1: half for the same reason, then I'm avoiding the Bucks Giants.
Speaker 1: I agree. If you were out of curiosity, if you
Speaker 1: were forced to choose a side here, which way would
Speaker 1: you go?
Speaker 2: If I was forced to take aside, I mean, I'd
Speaker 2: have to go with Arizona, because you know, Carolina's defense
Speaker 2: was so good a couple of years ago. Some of
Speaker 2: those guys are aging, some of those guys have moved on.
Speaker 2: Of course, Steve Wilkes was you know, defensive coordinator there
Speaker 2: for a year moved on. I would have to look
Speaker 2: Arizona here, just because I think there's maybe some more
Speaker 2: creativity to them that maybe Riverboat Ron can't really you know,
Speaker 2: account for in the lead up to this game. Whereas
Speaker 2: for Carolina, it's gonna be a lot of Christian McCaffrey,
Speaker 2: and if you stop him, then you probably stop Carolina's offense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is why it's a good game to avoid,
Speaker 1: because if I'm forced to two's, I'm probably taking the
Speaker 1: Panthers just because in the end, Newton was so terrible
Speaker 1: last week against the Bucks. I had no faith in
Speaker 1: him whatsoever. So if you're basically looking at the spread
Speaker 1: to me, I get, of course, you know you're taking
Speaker 1: a replacement quarterback, so you know, theoretically it's a downgrade,
Speaker 1: and it probably isn't probably should be in the spread.
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at the Panthers laying two and
Speaker 1: a half and now they're getting two and a half,
Speaker 1: to me, if anything, this might be an upgrade for
Speaker 1: them on offense. So I think the point about it,
Speaker 1: and that's really the reason I ask, because I kind
Speaker 1: of assume that if you're forced to two sides. Most
Speaker 1: people are probably gonna go with the Cardinals, right because
Speaker 1: they've at least shown something and it's more of a certainty.
Speaker 1: And I would take the Panthers if I was forced
Speaker 1: to choose, which I'm not and I'm not going to
Speaker 1: And I think that that pretty much highlights why it's
Speaker 1: a great bet to probably avoid this weekend. Before we
Speaker 1: get to our last segment, I do want to tell
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Speaker 1: have time for top Prop where we list our top
Speaker 1: player prop for the week. I stole your thunder last time.
Speaker 1: You can go first right here.
Speaker 2: No, it's all good man, not a problem. You know
Speaker 2: something I'm kind of looking at here, and this is
Speaker 2: a game that I've kind of waffled back and forth on.
Speaker 2: But Houston and the Chargers is a really interesting game
Speaker 2: in that four to twenty five window. Really all three
Speaker 2: of those games interesting for different reasons, but we don't
Speaker 2: have all the injury considerations in this one. Kind of
Speaker 2: trying to figure out what the game flow may look
Speaker 2: like for this game, because you've got a Chargers secondary
Speaker 2: now they're what on their third safety with Derwin James out,
Speaker 2: and then last week their replacement gets hurt. I kind
Speaker 2: of feel like, if you're the Chargers, you want to
Speaker 2: keep the ball away from Deshaun Watson as much as
Speaker 2: you possibly can here in this game. So I think
Speaker 2: Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson are both very busy, but
Speaker 2: I think Eckler is just a better fit here to
Speaker 2: run against that Houston defense, get outside the tackles, make
Speaker 2: JJ Watt go sideline to sideline, make Merciless run around
Speaker 2: as well. I think that that I'm kind of looking
Speaker 2: at Austin Eckler. I think that this player prop is
Speaker 2: gonna come out somewhere in the fourteen and a half
Speaker 2: to fifteen range on number of carries that he gets.
Speaker 2: I guess could be a pretty heavy workload for him
Speaker 2: here in this game. I just think he's a little
Speaker 2: bit better of a fit against the Texans than Justin
Speaker 2: Jackson is, and mayhawk a couple of those carries as
Speaker 2: a result.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Eckler, you had the fumble late in
Speaker 1: the game on the goal line when he stretched it unnecessarily,
Speaker 1: But he's the guy, I mean, and even though Jackson's
Speaker 1: running well, Eckler is certainly the quote unquote Bell cow Back.
Speaker 1: I mean he's seeding some touches, of course, but they
Speaker 1: love him. He's running well, They're going to lean on
Speaker 1: the run and try to control that game. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think it's that game strikes me as a pretty
Speaker 1: close game. I think it's the spread is Chargers laying three.
Speaker 1: I expect it to be tight because of that. I
Speaker 1: expect also the Chargers to lean on the run a
Speaker 1: little bit, even heavier than they usually do. And so
Speaker 1: I definitely like that, especially considering without Hunter Henry. I mean,
Speaker 1: Mike Williams is there, but he's banged up. You know,
Speaker 1: he played through it last week. But they don't have
Speaker 1: that many passing options going on right now. So I
Speaker 1: think leaning on the run in what is sure to
Speaker 1: be a close game is a really good pick. I'm
Speaker 1: going to take Adam Thielen to go over one hundred
Speaker 1: receiving yards and that's at minus one thirteen. Now, the
Speaker 1: fact that the vig is so bad at even over
Speaker 1: one hundred yards is kind of annoying, but there's a
Speaker 1: reason for it. I mean, it's been a bad start
Speaker 1: for the Vikings passing game. We talked about it when
Speaker 1: you were breaking down the Raiders Vikings game. But DeLand
Speaker 1: had seventy five yards last week against the tough Packers defense,
Speaker 1: even when Kirk Cousin looked pretty terrible. And as I said,
Speaker 1: for the reasons I said before, it feels like a
Speaker 1: get right game to me for the Vikings, and especially
Speaker 1: with their pass offense, because their rushing ability has been great.
Speaker 1: Cook has been amazed. He's doing great in the zone
Speaker 1: blocking scheme that Kubiak has kind of let go there.
Speaker 1: And the Raiders' pass defense it's not great. The defense
Speaker 1: as a hole has played better than I expected, but
Speaker 1: they don't really have a strong pass rush. They don't
Speaker 1: have great cornerbacks. But in particular, thelan's going to be
Speaker 1: in the slot. He's probably gonna be guarded by Lamarcush
Speaker 1: Joiner and he has not done well in coverage there.
Speaker 1: I think the Vikings know that that is probably the
Speaker 1: best way to exploit the Raiders to the extent they're
Speaker 1: going to take advantage of it through the air. Now
Speaker 1: I like Digs too. I think he's going to have
Speaker 1: probably a pretty good game. But for me, I feel
Speaker 1: like this is a game where the Vikings when they
Speaker 1: do go through the air, they lean on THELAN pretty
Speaker 1: heavily given his matchup in the slot. So even at
Speaker 1: minus one thirteen, personally, I will take THELAN to top
Speaker 1: one hundred yards.
Speaker 2: And that is my worry about that game. You know,
Speaker 2: Like I said, I think that John Gruden and Paul
Speaker 2: Gunthro are going to have the game plan of let's
Speaker 2: stop the run. Let's make Kirk Cousins beat us. If
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins is gonna beat him, it's probably gonna be
Speaker 2: with THELAN. I know, Diggs is kind of the home
Speaker 2: run hitter, had that touchdown taken off the board last week,
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown, took his helmet off like a moron,
Speaker 2: feeling probably is the guy here this week. So that
Speaker 2: is my worry about, you know, Oakland covering the number.
Speaker 2: But you know, hey, I mean again, it's one of
Speaker 2: those things where he's got to he's in a time
Speaker 2: share with Digs. Basically, if who gets those looks, who
Speaker 2: gets those targets? So hey, if he breaks a couple
Speaker 2: of big ones, gets over that century mark, then he's
Speaker 2: definitely in good shape. And unfortunately for me with Oakland,
Speaker 2: Oakland may be in bad shape.
Speaker 1: If that's the case, well, I honestly think that he
Speaker 1: can get past one hundred yards pretty easily, even if
Speaker 1: it's not a blowout, because I think when they go
Speaker 1: in the end, I like both of them. I think
Speaker 1: that they will establish it. But in the end, I
Speaker 1: do think that when they go to the air here,
Speaker 1: Feeling's just got the better matchup in the slot, and
Speaker 1: I think that that's really going to be where their
Speaker 1: bread is buttered. So I think when they go there
Speaker 1: they can get it. And I don't necessarily think that's
Speaker 1: incompatible with the vikings not covering the nine and a
Speaker 1: half points spread. I just think when they do go
Speaker 1: to the pass, that's really where they're going to go.
Speaker 1: But again, I like both, and I do think it's
Speaker 1: a little bit of a get right game for the
Speaker 1: passing game. Well that's gonna do it, my friend. Thanks
Speaker 1: again for joining me again for ever two time guests,
Speaker 1: so you'll always have that honor. Remind everybody where they
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 2: You can find me over at bangbook dot com. Every
Speaker 2: Monday through Friday, I host bang the Book Radio, which
Speaker 2: is anywhere from an hour to an hour and a
Speaker 2: half just talking about all things handicapping out there in
Speaker 2: the industry, got some very good guests that join me
Speaker 2: every week and on Fridays I record my Super Contest
Speaker 2: segment with you know, my reluctant five selections each week
Speaker 2: in the NFL. So you can check that out over
Speaker 2: at Bang Thebook dot com and of course we're on
Speaker 2: all the major podcast sites as well.
Speaker 1: Awesomebody, Well, I hope that you come back and you
Speaker 1: can be our first three time returning guests. Does sound good?
Speaker 2: Sounds good to me. Appreciate it, awesomebody.
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Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends,
Speaker 1: we'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.