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Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. We did a pretty

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Speaker 1: successful week last week, going four and oh with the

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Speaker 1: Bills laying one and a half against the Giants, the

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Speaker 1: Chargers Colts coming in under forty eight points, the Titans

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Speaker 1: and Colts coming in under forty three and a half,

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Speaker 1: and Sony Michelle rushing for more than seventy five yards.

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Speaker 1: Our guest last week, Andrew Kelly, had more of a

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Speaker 1: mixed bag, hitting on his Cowboys minus five over the

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Speaker 1: Redskins and Cooper Cup over eighty yards receiving, but he

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Speaker 1: missed on the Titans minus three and the Chiefs Raiders

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Speaker 1: over fifty three and a half. Let's see if we

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Speaker 1: can follow it up with an even better week while

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Speaker 1: looking at to be honest, a pretty tough slate in

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Speaker 1: my opinion, with me today to break down some of

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Speaker 1: our best bets, a bet to avoid, and our favorite

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Speaker 1: player prop bet. Is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer

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Speaker 1: at bangbook dot com and host of Bang the Book Radio.

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Speaker 1: You can find them on Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam,

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Speaker 1: how you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing well. Dan, How are you?

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Speaker 1: I'm doing great, buddy. You are the first two time

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Speaker 1: guest on this podcast. How does that feel.

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Speaker 2: I am very honored, very very honored. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for having me.

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Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I did. I really enjoyed when you were

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Speaker 1: on the first time. Do you agree with me that

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Speaker 1: this late is really really ugly.

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Speaker 2: Well, you said that you want to talk about a

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Speaker 2: game to avoid, and if I could, I'd avoid the

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Speaker 2: entire NFL card. It's brutal this week, and the thing

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Speaker 2: of it is, even the teams that don't have substantial injuries,

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Speaker 2: I think that they're very high variance types of games.

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Speaker 2: So it's gonna be a tough week in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: I think I agree. Well, we are here to navigate

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Speaker 1: you through it, and real quick. Before we get into

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Speaker 1: the show, I do want to remind everyone about our

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Speaker 1: September contest where we're giving away a signed Alvin Kamara helmet.

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Speaker 1: Just leave a review for the show on iTunes or

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Speaker 1: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest

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Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com. And if you entered last month's

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Speaker 1: contest you are automatically entered into this month, so no

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Speaker 1: worries there, all right, Adam, As always, we're going to

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Speaker 1: get started with pick six, where we are both going

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Speaker 1: to give three of our favorite bets for this weekend,

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Speaker 1: either against the spread or on the over under. And

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Speaker 1: as always, I will note at the outset that we're

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Speaker 1: recording this shortly before kickoff of the Thursday night game,

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Speaker 1: so we're not going to be making any picks on

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Speaker 1: the Titans Jaguars game, even if we wanted to. But

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Speaker 1: if you want to see how I picked that game,

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Speaker 1: you can go to bettingpros dot com. That's going to

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Speaker 1: show you how I and basically every betting expert who

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Speaker 1: makes picks on the site made their picks for every game.

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Speaker 1: And we're also going to be using the bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com consensus odds in making our picks. Here. Those are

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Speaker 1: the aggregate odds that you'll find available in the market.

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Speaker 1: All right, buddy, start us off. What's your first pick?

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Speaker 2: I gotta say, you said pick six. I thought we're

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Speaker 2: gonna talk about Jameis Winston for a little while before

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Speaker 2: we got into these picks. But you know, for me,

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Speaker 2: like I said, I mean, I think this is such

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Speaker 2: a challenging NFL card, so some of these may have

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Speaker 2: a little bit lower of a degree of confidence than

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Speaker 2: I would typically have in the NFL. But we'll start

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Speaker 2: with the Detroit Lions, and the consensus line out there

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Speaker 2: now over at betting pros is six and a half. Look,

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is one of those instances where the

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Speaker 2: Lions are coming in pretty healthy overall, nothing that stands

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Speaker 2: out too much. The Eagles have all kinds of issues.

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Speaker 2: Doug Peterson canceled practice on Wednesday. They just went ahead

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Speaker 2: and had a walk through. And what really worries me

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Speaker 2: about this game, and we see this sometimes in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: With these big numbers, you've got to get some margin.

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Speaker 2: And for the Eagles, the running game isn't doing anything,

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Speaker 2: and what half of their able bodied receivers are out

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Speaker 2: for this game, So I think it's really tough for

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Speaker 2: them to get margin. Tough for the wide receivers to

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Speaker 2: get separation and help Carson Wentz out, and also too

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Speaker 2: to get margin with a secondary as bad as the

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Speaker 2: Eagles secondary has been here so far this season. I

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Speaker 2: think Matt Stafford can move the football for the Lions.

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Speaker 2: I think the Lions take this game really seriously. Philadelphia's

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Speaker 2: banged up, and they've got a short week and play

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Speaker 2: Green Bay on Thursday night. A lot of check marks

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Speaker 2: in the Lions box for me. So I know it's

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Speaker 2: tough to take a Lions team out on the road,

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Speaker 2: but I think six and a half it's a little

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Speaker 2: bit too much in this game.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you completely. Actually, they're now one of

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Speaker 1: my picks, of course, because I don't want to double

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Speaker 1: up with you, but I agree I would take the

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Speaker 1: Lions here now. Yeah, I think I'm not sure exactly

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Speaker 1: what it was when it first opened or maybe before,

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Speaker 1: you know, the Sunday Night game. I think it was

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Speaker 1: at seven and a half. It might have been at

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Speaker 1: eight when it first out of curiosity. How would you

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Speaker 1: have felt about the line if it was at seven

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Speaker 1: and a half, if let's say Deshaun Jackson and Alshon

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Speaker 1: Jeffrey were healthy for this game, because it sounds like

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Speaker 1: both are gonna miss as of right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I like the Lions. I like

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Speaker 2: the Lions to begin with. On the opener at seven

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Speaker 2: and a half or eight, it's you know, a little

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Speaker 2: bit disappointing. I know you and I are both in

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Speaker 2: the Super Contest. It's disappointing that the Lions are plus

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Speaker 2: six out there in that you can find six and

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Speaker 2: a half in the market, and that they were over

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Speaker 2: a touchdown early in the week. But I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia is supposed to be all about explosiveness. Five yards

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Speaker 2: per play in two games here so far. I had

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Speaker 2: the Eagles last week in the Super Contest and they

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Speaker 2: were a half yard from winning. They were fourth and

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Speaker 2: three stop from winning. But they were not the right

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Speaker 2: side in that game. They did not play well at all.

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Speaker 2: So this isn't just sour grapes and going against them.

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Speaker 2: It's just something misfiring with that offense. And I don't

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Speaker 2: know if it's Wentz shaking off the rust or if

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Speaker 2: it's all injury related, but I don't have a lot

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Speaker 2: of confidence in the Eagles laying big numbers against you know,

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Speaker 2: anybody not named the Dolphins of the Jets right now.

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Speaker 1: And honestly, the Lions have been a lot better than

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Speaker 1: I expected. I mean, they could easily beat two and

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Speaker 1: zero if they had managed to hold on against the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals instead of taking the tie in Week one. Their

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Speaker 1: defense was played a little bit better than I expected.

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Speaker 1: The offense, you know, it's given Matt Stafford a bunch

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Speaker 1: of different weapons. Carrie on Johnson has looked, you know fine,

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Speaker 1: maybe hasn't taken the leap yet that maybe we all expected,

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Speaker 1: although we did have that long touchdown last week. So

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Speaker 1: in the end, this is for me. I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I'm on your side for sure. It's as much about

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Speaker 1: the Lions as it is about the Eagles here, so

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Speaker 1: I agree with you. Even on the road. I do

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Speaker 1: like the Lions plus six and a half, so I'm

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Speaker 1: with you on that one. My first pick, I'm going

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Speaker 1: with an over under here, and it's under forty four

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Speaker 1: on the Bengals at the Bills. Now, I also lean

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Speaker 1: a little bit towards the Bengals here to cover the

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Speaker 1: six point spread, but that's not going to be one

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Speaker 1: of my picks. The Bills' first two games have total

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Speaker 1: thirty three and forty two against the Giants and the Jets,

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Speaker 1: and they put up twenty eight points last week against

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Speaker 1: the Giants, but I don't expect them to do that here. First,

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Speaker 1: the Giants defense, as I said last week, is really

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Speaker 1: just abysmal. They might not quite be at the Dolphins level,

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Speaker 1: but they're really not that far off. And I fully

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Speaker 1: admit that whatever the Bengals did on defense last week

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Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers was not actual defense. They

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Speaker 1: had one of the worst tackling performances I've ever seen

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Speaker 1: in watching NFL games, But that does not really strike

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Speaker 1: me necessarily as this sustainable phenomenon. They really didn't look

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Speaker 1: like that against Seattle in Week one. Now you add

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Speaker 1: to that the fact that Devin Singletary is almost certainly

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Speaker 1: out for this game. And I love Frank More, but

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Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say that the Bengals aren't

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Speaker 1: going to be giving up, you know, close to two

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty rushing yards. I like Josh Allen, but

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Speaker 1: still have the accuracy concerns. I don't hate Cincinnati's cornerbacks,

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Speaker 1: and I'm a little concerned. You know, there are some

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Speaker 1: things when I was digging deep into this game, sounds

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Speaker 1: like Carl Lawson may miss this game, which takes away,

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Speaker 1: you know, since he's pass rush. But really, in the end,

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Speaker 1: what I think is this is probably gonna wind up

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Speaker 1: being a close and relatively low scoring game. I like

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Speaker 1: the Bills defense as a general manner, and you know,

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Speaker 1: look the Bengals have issues on offense. Of course, they

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Speaker 1: still haven't recovered from Jonah Williams injury. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if Cordy Glenn is going to be back from the concussion.

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Speaker 1: I don't expect them to have a giant offensive performance either,

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Speaker 1: especially against the Bills defense. And again, Buffalo, for me,

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Speaker 1: I went to school there, and it's not rocket science.

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Speaker 1: It's a tough place to play, even when you're not

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Speaker 1: in the winter. You've got the Bills, the Sabers and

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Speaker 1: Duff Swings, and that's pretty much all you've got in

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Speaker 1: that city. The fans are going to be raucous. I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be tough for Cincinnati to generate

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Speaker 1: much on offense. I don't think Buffalo has the offense

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Speaker 1: to carry that over under really by themselves. So I

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Speaker 1: see a close game here. If I were to pick

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Speaker 1: the spread, I'd probably go with the Bengals. But more

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Speaker 1: than the spread, I like the under here at forty four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's scary. I kind of like the side a

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Speaker 2: little bit too. But I'm on the same wavelength with

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Speaker 2: you with regards to the under. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: when you look at what happened last week, you know.

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Speaker 2: And I got to see this first hand with Kyle

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Speaker 2: Shanahan when he was the offensive cordator in Cleveland. He

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Speaker 2: took a collection of bums and made a decent offense

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Speaker 2: out of the wide receivers. The guy's just a brilliant

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Speaker 2: play designer, a very good play caller. Brian Daboles not

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Speaker 2: that guy, you know. Last week the forty nine ers

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Speaker 2: got a bunch of yards on screens, got some yards

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Speaker 2: on mistackles. I would expect Cincinnati to play a little

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Speaker 2: bit better, you know, in the back seven, play a

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Speaker 2: little bit better with their safeties here in this one,

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Speaker 2: because you don't have to worry about getting beat over

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Speaker 2: the top by Josh Allen the way that you do

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Speaker 2: with Jimmy Garoppolo or some of the other guys that

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Speaker 2: are out there. So I agree with you. I think

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati can, you know, button batting down the hatches a

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Speaker 2: little bit here. And like you said about the Bills,

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Speaker 2: I mean also too for the Bills. I mean, if

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Speaker 2: they're up in the second half of this game. And

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Speaker 2: maybe this is part of the reason why I kind

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Speaker 2: of like the Bengals a little bit. Buffalo at three

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Speaker 2: and oh against New England at three and oh at

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Speaker 2: New Era Field next week. There's gonna be a look

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Speaker 2: ahead factor in the second half and in particular in

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Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. If the Bills have this game in hand.

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Speaker 1: That's the thing. It's not like this is a three

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Speaker 1: point spread. I mean that's six points. It opened I

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Speaker 1: think closer to four when it first hit four or

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Speaker 1: four and a half. That might be a different story.

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Speaker 1: Although you know, I'm not going to be surprised if

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Speaker 1: the Bengals come away here with a win. I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to predict that necessarily, but six points that's a

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Speaker 1: pretty big margin right there. And if you think you

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Speaker 1: know that basically for the reasons that you said, I don't.

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Speaker 1: I certainly don't see the Bills running away with this

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Speaker 1: game at all. And I certainly could see them basically

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Speaker 1: looking at what happened last week win Cincinnati and thinking,

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Speaker 1: you know what, we're gonna be able to take care

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Speaker 1: business at home. We've got the Pats coming up, maybe

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Speaker 1: we can make a stand there and looking past them.

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Speaker 1: And I agree with that, and really, for me, just

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Speaker 1: last week, you know, I agree Shanahan and he had

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Speaker 1: a couple of brilliant plays, but really the tackling was

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Speaker 1: so abysmal, and they're not that bad. That was just

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Speaker 1: a crazy sort of it struck me as a one

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Speaker 1: off because they really were not that bad against Seattle.

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Speaker 1: So I do expect a close game here. I think

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Speaker 1: we both kind of are on the same wavelength, and

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the under. So who's your second

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Speaker 1: pick here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and one other quick point. You know, Buffalo great defense,

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Speaker 2: great pass defense. You know, we know the Bengals are

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Speaker 2: probably gonna throw a lot, but also you know, it

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Speaker 2: seemed like reading some of the reports that were out there,

242
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Speaker 2: Zach Taylor really wanted to get Joe Mixon more involved

243
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Speaker 2: this week. I think that's kind of part of the

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Speaker 2: thing that he's looking to do when we all know

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Speaker 2: that there's a lot of hatred against running the football

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Speaker 2: in the NFL these days, not throwing the ball, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna move the ball in short or chunks. So that

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Speaker 2: kind of plays into Buffalo's hands a little bit, you know,

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Speaker 2: with regards to the under here in this one, as

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Speaker 2: well as far as my next pick goes, Boy, this

251
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Speaker 2: one's ugly, but you know what, I gotta look at

252
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Speaker 2: the Raiders. I mean, they're plus nine and a half

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Speaker 2: out there now on the consensus odds again eight and

254
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Speaker 2: a half in the Super Contest, So not losing any

255
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Speaker 2: key value or anything like that. Still would like to

256
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Speaker 2: get the best line possible, But this was one that

257
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Speaker 2: I isolated pretty quickly because you know, again you talk

258
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Speaker 2: about the NFL, you talk about trying to get margin.

259
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Speaker 2: Minnesota's gonna run the football, and if they run it

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Speaker 2: down Oakland's rout and run for two hundred and twenty

261
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Speaker 2: five two hundred and fifty yards, then sure I could

262
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Speaker 2: see a path to them covering this number. But one

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Speaker 2: thing that's really impressed me about Oakland so far this year.

264
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Speaker 2: They played very well in the first half against Denver,

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Speaker 2: and they played very well in the first quarter against

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Speaker 2: Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes just took over the game.

267
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Speaker 2: And that's gonna happen. I mean, Mahomes is gonna do

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Speaker 2: that to much better teams than Oakland. But Oakland tried

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Speaker 2: to change up a lot on defense last week. There

270
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Speaker 2: were a lot of miscommunications, guys kind of running free

271
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Speaker 2: on slant routes. Mahomes made some throws over the top

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Speaker 2: where he got some long touchdown passes. Oakland's gonna play

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Speaker 2: a simplified base defense here this week. Paul Gunther familiar

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Speaker 2: with Mike Zimmer from their time together in Cincinnati. He'll

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Speaker 2: have an idea of what the Vikings want to do.

276
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Speaker 2: They're gonna sell out against the run. They'll make Kirk

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Speaker 2: Cousins beat them. And I really haven't seen much from

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00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,280
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins that would suggest that he was gonna go

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Speaker 2: out there and cover almost a double digit numbers. So

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Speaker 2: for Oakland, look, they don't play a home game again

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Speaker 2: until November third, And this is an angle I've looked

282
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Speaker 2: at before in the NBA, in the NHL, the first

283
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,840
Speaker 2: game of a road trip, you get a team's best effort.

284
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Speaker 2: They want to set the road trip off on the

285
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Speaker 2: right foot. They're as fresh as they're going to be.

286
00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,880
Speaker 2: I could get a really good effort from Oakland here

287
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Speaker 2: this week. I'm not so sure about Minnesota coming off

288
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Speaker 2: of last week's loss, and in a divisional sandwich with Chicago.

289
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Speaker 1: On deck, that's you make a lot of really interesting points.

290
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Speaker 1: And you know the thing about the Raiders defense last

291
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Speaker 1: week is that it wasn't just that they played well

292
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Speaker 1: in the first quarter and then Mahomes put up twenty

293
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Speaker 1: eight points in the second quarter. Whi's true, but he

294
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Speaker 1: didn't put up anything other than that. It was legitimately

295
00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,400
Speaker 1: one quarter. For three quarters, they generally held the Chiefs

296
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Speaker 1: in check. Now I know, of course, it's a little

297
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Speaker 1: bit different. The Chiefs were ahead, so it's not exactly

298
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Speaker 1: the same thing. But they have been much better, in

299
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Speaker 1: my opinion, than what I expected. Now, this line, originally

300
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,920
Speaker 1: I think was close. It might have opened at seven

301
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,079
Speaker 1: and a half, and at that point I felt a

302
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Speaker 1: little more comfortable with the Vikings. I don't think I

303
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,599
Speaker 1: feel comfortable either way on this game. I mean I

304
00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:05,320
Speaker 1: have not. Part of me really expects this, and we'll

305
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,320
Speaker 1: talk about that. I'll mention them later in the player prop.

306
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:09,160
Speaker 1: I expect it to be a little bit more of

307
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Speaker 1: a get right game for the Vikings. I think that

308
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:13,720
Speaker 1: they have just looked a little bit out of sorts.

309
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Speaker 1: He had the first game where they won, but you know,

310
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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins through ten passes. Then last week against the

311
00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:23,040
Speaker 1: Packers they got way behind. You know, the passing game

312
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,839
Speaker 1: has obviously not been working. Cousins hasn't looked good really

313
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Speaker 1: since he's been with the Vikings, but certainly not yet

314
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Speaker 1: so I do see a scenario where they try to

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Speaker 1: essentially open it up a little bit and put on

316
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Speaker 1: more points rather than lean on the run, which I

317
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Speaker 1: think they're going to do generally throughout the season. But

318
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Speaker 1: at nine and a half, that's a big number. But

319
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Speaker 1: for me, I don't know, it was a little scary

320
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Speaker 1: to kind of take it. Nine and a half makes

321
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,319
Speaker 1: me lean towards the Raiders, But for me, I was

322
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,000
Speaker 1: a little worried about picking them.

323
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Speaker 2: No, that's completely understandable. I mean, you know, the Raider

324
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,600
Speaker 2: is not exactly a team that's gained a whole lot

325
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Speaker 2: of trust over the last few years. The thing of

326
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Speaker 2: it for me is they're going to be prepared. You know,

327
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Speaker 2: I think what we've seen so far from John Gruden.

328
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Speaker 2: You know, obviously he doesn't get along with Mike Mayock,

329
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Speaker 2: and you know, he's kind of put his own stamp

330
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Speaker 2: on the personnel for this team. But they're usually prepared

331
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Speaker 2: as long as they're not in a spot where they're

332
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Speaker 2: gonna quit or something like that. The team is ready

333
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 2: to go. Now if they get out talented, and that's

334
00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,160
Speaker 2: very possible here against Minnesota, that's one thing. But I

335
00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 2: think that they're going to be ready to go here,

336
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 2: and to me, I think when you're a big underdog

337
00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:27,840
Speaker 2: and underdog of this magnitude, that's half the battle to

338
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 2: be focused, to be engaged, to be ready to go

339
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,200
Speaker 2: out there and give a good performance. So Minnesota certainly

340
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:34,880
Speaker 2: can run it up and they can salt the game

341
00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,880
Speaker 2: away with the running game if they want to. But

342
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,520
Speaker 2: I think Oakland's gonna be in a decent spot here.

343
00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,080
Speaker 2: And again, like I said, I mean, you've got some

344
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,960
Speaker 2: injuries here. Once again, injuries in play with every game,

345
00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,120
Speaker 2: some injuries in the back seven for Minnesota. Anthony bar

346
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,680
Speaker 2: did in practice on Thursday. They've got some other guys.

347
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 2: Mackenzie Alexander is not gonna play, so maybe Oakland could

348
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,480
Speaker 2: take advantage of that through the air, and especially in

349
00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,360
Speaker 2: the middle of the field with how they've been using

350
00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 2: the tight end so much.

351
00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you make a lot of go points.

352
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,080
Speaker 1: It's not something that I'm running away from. And if

353
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 1: I was forced to pick one side, I would go

354
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,640
Speaker 1: with the Raiders. But for now, it's really because the

355
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 1: spread has gotten much higher than I expected. Again, I

356
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:12,800
Speaker 1: don't know what you mentioned in the Super contest. It

357
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,560
Speaker 1: might be eight I think, but at nine and a half.

358
00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 1: That's something that's a little too dicey for me to

359
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,280
Speaker 1: even think about relying on the Vikings, even though I

360
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,640
Speaker 1: could see a scenario where they really run it up

361
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 1: switching gears to my second pick. I don't know if

362
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:28,600
Speaker 1: you're going to be too happy with it, because you

363
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:30,920
Speaker 1: are a Cleveland fan, if I remember.

364
00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,240
Speaker 2: Correctly, right, yes, sir?

365
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,080
Speaker 1: All right, well, I am taking the Rams laying three

366
00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 1: in Cleveland. Now this is a really, really, really public play,

367
00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,920
Speaker 1: which makes me nervous because really you always I never

368
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:46,560
Speaker 1: want to be on that side. And it's something like

369
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the bets and the money is

370
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:54,400
Speaker 1: coming in on the Rams. I really am surprised that

371
00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:57,560
Speaker 1: this is where the numbers came. Now, I'm a Jets fan.

372
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:01,840
Speaker 1: I watched Monday Night pretty closely. If anything, I downgraded

373
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 1: them after that game. I mean, the offense, for whatever reason,

374
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 1: looks really really stagnant. The late eighty nine yard slant

375
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 1: to Beckham makes the offensive totals look better than they were,

376
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 1: but they had very little going on offensively for most

377
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,080
Speaker 1: of that game. And that is against the Jets team

378
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 1: that was missing both Quinn Williams and CJ. Mosley and

379
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,680
Speaker 1: has really nothing in their secondary other than Jamal Adams.

380
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 1: Mayfield's already been sacked eight times, and the Browns now

381
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:29,840
Speaker 1: have lost David Djoku. I get it, he was not

382
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,840
Speaker 1: particularly involved, but he is another weapon that teams at

383
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: least needed to account for him. As for the other

384
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,120
Speaker 1: side of the balls, for their defense, look, Miles Garrett

385
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 1: is a beast, but the Jets were playing their second

386
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,720
Speaker 1: and then third string quarterbacks and they have an absolutely

387
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,520
Speaker 1: terrible offensive line. I know the Rams offensive line is

388
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 1: not what it was last year, and they've already got

389
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 1: some backups in already. They may be missing Austin Blythe

390
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 1: in this game, so it's possible. But I'm not overly

391
00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,160
Speaker 1: excited about the Browns defense just because they had a

392
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 1: good performance against the Jets. Now, as for the ram

393
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 1: I get it, they have not looked like world beaders.

394
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,720
Speaker 1: It's been a long time since Jared Goff really showed

395
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 1: what he can do. I think it might be ten

396
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 1: straight games that he's been or maybe once in the

397
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 1: last ten games where he's been over three hundred yards

398
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,200
Speaker 1: and that's it. And they barely snuck by a Carolina

399
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:17,199
Speaker 1: team with a Cam Newton struggling, and they barely, not barely,

400
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 1: but they were close with the Saints and of course

401
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,520
Speaker 1: got lucky with the fact that that touchdown was not counted,

402
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 1: and then they went by, you know, a Teddy Bridgewater

403
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 1: led team. So I just in the end, I think

404
00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,800
Speaker 1: they are a better team here. I like a lot

405
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,840
Speaker 1: of the Browns pieces on defense. I like Denzel Ward,

406
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,920
Speaker 1: and I like Greedy Williams. But you know, Golf has

407
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,680
Speaker 1: four weapons on any given play that he can easily

408
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 1: go through. They still have a strong defense with Aaron Donald,

409
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,560
Speaker 1: who it sounds like the back injury is not a

410
00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 1: big deal. They still have the strong corners with Talib

411
00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 1: and Peters. And again, Cleveland's coming off a short week

412
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: here in a game where Baker Mayfield was still taking

413
00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 1: hits at the very end of a blowout game. I

414
00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 1: know we've got the whole West Coast team traveling east,

415
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: but I just do not see it right now with

416
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:00,760
Speaker 1: the Browns. I don't know how they're going to long term,

417
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 1: but right now I am not at all confident in

418
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 1: them giving the Rams here laying three in Cleveland.

419
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cleveland fan, but you know what I mean, you

420
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,639
Speaker 2: have no fandom when it comes to your money. So

421
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 2: I'm on the same side here with you as the Rams.

422
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you know, as you mentioned, Baker Mayfield

423
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,680
Speaker 2: just hasn't looked very good and he's had some time

424
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 2: to throw, you know, I mean the pocket has collapsed

425
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,640
Speaker 2: a few times, but he's also been holding the ball

426
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,239
Speaker 2: way too long underthrowing guys. I mean, Odell made two

427
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,119
Speaker 2: big plays in that game against the Jets, and that

428
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,159
Speaker 2: was a pretty big majority of their offense. So I

429
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:33,359
Speaker 2: agree with you about the Browns offense, But what I

430
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 2: want to focus on, since you covered most of it,

431
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 2: is the defense. You know. Yeah, you've got Miles Garrett,

432
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,879
Speaker 2: You've got Olivia Olivia Vernon on the other side, but

433
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,119
Speaker 2: in this game, you're not gonna have Christian Kirksey for

434
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,640
Speaker 2: the Browns. And to me, I know you said before

435
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 2: we started recording here that you're a Jets fan. You know,

436
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,160
Speaker 2: seej Moseley being out last week really hurt that defense. Yeah,

437
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 2: I think Christian Kirksey being out for the Browns really

438
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,280
Speaker 2: hurts their defense as well. They're young in the secondary

439
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 2: with Greedy Williams and Denzel war and then now it

440
00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 2: was like probably Mack Wilson on then Taki Taki, the

441
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 2: kid out of what is it Utah? You know, I

442
00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 2: think those guys are gonna be playing with Joe Schobert

443
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 2: and Showbert's a great run stopper, he's not a good

444
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,560
Speaker 2: pass coverage linebacker. Sean McVay is going to be able

445
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 2: to attack that second level of the Browns defense here,

446
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 2: and he's gonna be able to do it with quick throws.

447
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 2: He's got the receivers to do it. And what is

448
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 2: the best defense against a good pass rush to get

449
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 2: the ball out quickly. I think Sean McVay has got

450
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,679
Speaker 2: a great game plan coming up this week. The Browns

451
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,439
Speaker 2: defense is gonna miss Kurtsey badly. And also, if this

452
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 2: becomes any kind of shootout, and I don't think it

453
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 2: will spoiler alert, but Cleveland can't score with the Rams.

454
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 2: They just can't do it at this point in time,

455
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 2: with how disjointed that offense looks. So I'm on the

456
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 2: same side as you here. I like the Rams as

457
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 2: much as it pains me to say that. I will

458
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 2: say if it goes back up to three and a half,

459
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 2: which is certainly a possibility here, all the threes out

460
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,439
Speaker 2: there with extra juice, I'd like it less, you know,

461
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,119
Speaker 2: just because crazy things can't happen in these primetime games.

462
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 2: But the best way I can put it is this,

463
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,199
Speaker 2: this is a big boy game for Cleveland, for a

464
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 2: team that has not been in big boy games for

465
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 2: a very long time. The spotlight is on the Rams,

466
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,679
Speaker 2: who know they haven't played well. This almost feels like

467
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 2: the get right game that you referenced for Minnesota, but

468
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: for the Rams.

469
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 1: In my opinion, yeah, I something about Cleveland just does

470
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 1: not look right right now. Whatever it is, they are

471
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,199
Speaker 1: not in sync. They did not look good against the

472
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 1: Titans in the first game. They I don't care what

473
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 1: the final score was. They did not look good against

474
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 1: the Jets. That should have been you know, an easy

475
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,719
Speaker 1: easy at least on offense. They really should have been

476
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 1: able to put up points much, you know, more easily

477
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,880
Speaker 1: than they did. The Jets defense again without Moseley, without

478
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 1: Quinn Williams, they just they did not have anything that

479
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 1: should have been able to stop them. And Mayfield just

480
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 1: the wrong. You nailed it with him holding the ball

481
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: way too long. I just feel like, in the end,

482
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 1: it worries me that the public is so on this

483
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 1: and it feels to me like you know, I would

484
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 1: think that the it would be moving a little higher

485
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: at this point the spread, but in the end, it's

486
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: staying three. For now, I'm gonna take it at three.

487
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 1: And I feel kind of comfortable with that, even though

488
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 1: it's something about it, especially because the public's all in

489
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 1: on it feels a little off. So I'm gonna stick

490
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:12,880
Speaker 1: with them at three. Who's your third pick here?

491
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one, This line kind of got away from

492
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: me a little bit here today since I mentioned the

493
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 2: three plays, but I'll stick with it here for continuity purposes.

494
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 2: Talking more about this Rams in Cleveland game. I mean, look,

495
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 2: I like the under in this game. You know, I

496
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 2: think you've got two defensive lines that can get after

497
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: the quarterback. And as much as I think McVeigh plans

498
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 2: for you know, quick out slants, hot routes, all that

499
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 2: kind of thing to slow down Miles Garrett and Vernon,

500
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: I mean they're still gonna get there. You know, Miles

501
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 2: Garrett is a freak of nature. He's gonna get there

502
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 2: no matter what you try to do, no matter what

503
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 2: kind of help you put over there, He's gonna find

504
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: a way to disrupt Jared Goff And we all know

505
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 2: about the Jared Goff home road splits. He's not good

506
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: on the road, and maybe that's one of the reasons

507
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 2: you and I do have a little bit of hesitation

508
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 2: about the Rams minus three, But man, I don't see

509
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: it from Baker. I just don't. And I know the

510
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 2: Rams last year weren't a very good defense. But Wade

511
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,239
Speaker 2: Phillips is going to confuse this kid. He's gonna give

512
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 2: him a lot of different coverages to look at. Maybe

513
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 2: OBJ and Jarvis get free, but they're missing in Djoku.

514
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 2: Chubb doesn't seem to have that same burst early on

515
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,919
Speaker 2: in the year that he had last season. The offensive

516
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 2: line has been not good at run blocking, and you know,

517
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 2: they've done as good as they can pass blocking, but

518
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 2: Baker's kind of screwed the pooch on that. I don't

519
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 2: see the Browns doing a whole lot offensively in this game,

520
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 2: and I don't know how much the Rams will do either,

521
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: enough to cover the number, I think, but still I

522
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 2: like the under here in this one. I believe it's

523
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 2: forty seven and a half forty eight now, but there

524
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 2: were some fifties earlier on in the week.

525
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, even at forty seven and a half, which is

526
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: where the consensus line is. I'm with you. I again,

527
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: it's it's really just whatever is going on. I mean,

528
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: the fact that they put up I think it was

529
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: twenty three points in the end against the Jets again

530
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: a really late slant against an exhausted Jets defense that

531
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 1: you know, Odell took that the house. They were settling

532
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 1: for field goal. They just were not moving the ball

533
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 1: particularly well. The offense seems disjointed, and the Rams, I mean,

534
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 1: they're no longer this really crazy high powered offense, at

535
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: least they haven't been for a while. They've still got

536
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: tons of weapons, but on the road, I don't really

537
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 1: expect them to drop a thirty spot necessarily or anything

538
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 1: like that. So I am entirely with you on that one.

539
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: I do like the under at forty seven and a

540
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: half for my third pick. I don't know if we're

541
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: going to be an agreement here, buddy, because I feel

542
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 1: a little nervous about it. But I just in the end,

543
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 1: when I keep breaking it down, I keep coming back

544
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: to it, and that's actually the Saints getting four in Seattle.

545
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: So the public, I'm going against the public, which always

546
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 1: makes me feel a little bit better. I think in

547
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 1: the end, I just don't think Seattle is all that good.

548
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: They've won their two games by a combined three points,

549
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: which includes a home win against a poor and banged

550
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: up Bengals team. They barely squeak by Mason Rudolph. And look,

551
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 1: we know what their offense is at this point. You know,

552
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 1: they have Wilson, they have a couple of playmakers, but

553
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: it's still Brian Schottneimer running the offense. They still want

554
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 1: to lean on this conservative run. First game. I think

555
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: they will be extra conservative right now, trying to win

556
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 1: the game with their defense. And their defense is solid,

557
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: right They've still got Bobby Wagner, They've got kJ Wright,

558
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: they obviously traded for Jadeveon Clowney. They should get Ziggy

559
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: ansa back, which is going to make me a little worrisome.

560
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 1: But the thing about it is the Seahawks basically have

561
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: done no surprises through their first two games. On defense,

562
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: They're just running a base defense throughout there, leaving their

563
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: linebackers out there. They want to be able to stop

564
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: the run, and they have so far, but they're not

565
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 1: really stopping the pass. I mean, we saw Andy Dalton

566
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 1: throw for over four hundred yards in the first game.

567
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph moved the ball well, and they're struggling against

568
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 1: defending pass catching running backs, which is exactly what Alvin

569
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: Kamara does. They're averaging nearly seven yards per target. That's

570
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: going to be a problem. And really, above all, for me,

571
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are basically saying, this is our defense. This

572
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,479
Speaker 1: gives us the best chance to win. We're leaving our

573
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: linebackers out there. This is what we're going to be doing.

574
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: And if you give Sean Payton a week to prepare

575
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: for that, even with Teddy Bridgewater, even with Taysom Hill

576
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: or whatever he's gonna do, I feel like they're gonna

577
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: find ways to exploit that. Now, I'm not crazy bullish

578
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: on the Saints. Generally speaking, they're probably gonna be without

579
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: Trey Kuan Smith. They've got problems on their offensive line,

580
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 1: but I think Sean Payton is gonna figure out a

581
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 1: way to attack them. Even with Teddy Bridgewater, who is

582
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 1: a competent quarterback, the Saints overall have a strong defense.

583
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a close game. I see

584
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 1: it as more like a three point game one way

585
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: or another. So for me, I'm gonna take the four points,

586
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 1: but I'll be interested to hear whether or not you agree.

587
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a tough one for me. I know

588
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about games who would avoid, and this

589
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 2: was one of them that was in consideration for me.

590
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: I don't know what Teddy Bridgewater is gonna look like here,

591
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 2: And again, what happens a lot of times the NFL

592
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 2: is such a you know, it's all about immediate reaction.

593
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 2: It's all about, you know, overreaction when it comes to

594
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 2: things from a betting standpoint, Yeah, Bridgewater looked terrible last week.

595
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 2: But also, I mean, you're all franchised future Hall of

596
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 2: Fame quarterback went out guy who really hasn't been hurt

597
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 2: very much over the course of his career. You're not

598
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: really expecting that over the course of the game if

599
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 2: you're Bridgewater. But I feel better if he came in

600
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 2: and played well. Yeah. Absolutely, But now you've get a

601
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: week full of practice. And not only that, New Orleans

602
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 2: stayed on the West coast. You know, they didn't come

603
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: back home and then go back out there. They stayed

604
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 2: on the West Coast, away from the local media, away

605
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: from their families. So they've been one hundred and ten

606
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: percent focused on this game and focused on putting Bridgewater

607
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 2: in a position to succeed. Now whether or not he

608
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 2: can do that, I don't really know. You know, that's

609
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 2: something that we're gonna have to wait until the game

610
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 2: to figure out. But I agree with you. You know, by

611
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: and large, I mean Seattle not a team I had

612
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 2: very high hopes for. Was against them last week with

613
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh in the Super Contest, and of course Big Ben

614
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 2: goes out. Russ was much better last week than I expected.

615
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: They kind of put it in his hands a little

616
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 2: bit more than usual. If they have to do that

617
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 2: again this week, I don't know if lightning can strike twice.

618
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: So if I had to play it, I agree with

619
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: your position on the Saints. I just don't feel like

620
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 2: I have to play it this week.

621
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 1: No, I understand, as we talked about, it's a rough slate.

622
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: It is a really, really rough slate, and I'm not

623
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: jumping for joy over this game. I feel much more

624
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: confident in the Rams pick. But for this one, again,

625
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: it's just something where I think it's a whole different story.

626
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: And you basically pointed this out. If you have Bridgewater

627
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 1: come in in the middle of a game where he's

628
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 1: not preparing to start, they haven't game planned around him.

629
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: His strengths, surprise surprise, are different than what Drew breeses are,

630
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: So I think with a week to prepare, I think

631
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to devise a game plan that's

632
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: gonna be able to do it. So in the end, look,

633
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks, regardless of ending else, I think

634
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: they're gonna look at this as probably something where they're

635
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,439
Speaker 1: not gonna try to be explosive. It's not gonna be

636
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 1: like last week against the Steelers with Wilson really doing.

637
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,360
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna play just sort of a strong game,

638
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: lean on their defense a little bit, and I think

639
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,400
Speaker 1: in the end it's gonna be a close game within

640
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: the four points either way. But I agree with you,

641
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 1: I'm not overly confident in it, but it is one

642
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 1: of the ones that I feel strongest about this week,

643
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 1: which should tell you something about this week. As we said,

644
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: all right, let's just quickly recap before we move on.

645
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 1: You've got the Lions plus six and a half over

646
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: the Eagles, the Raiders plus nine and a half over

647
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: the Vikings, and under forty seven and a half on

648
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,160
Speaker 1: the Browns against the Rams. I also like the Browns

649
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: against the Rams, but I like the Rams laying three

650
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 1: in that game. I also like the Saints getting four

651
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: from the Seahawks and under forty four on the Bengals

652
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 1: at the Bills. So we'll review those next week and

653
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: hopefully we'll we'll have some good picks here. Now, before

654
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: we move on, I do want to tell you about

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00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,639
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683
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: let's move on to our next segment, which I have

684
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: called It's a trap where we list the game that

685
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: we are both avoiding. Now, do you mind if I

686
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 1: go first on this one? Just because I don't want

687
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: you stealing it? This is like the one game that

688
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 1: I'm really desperate to avoid.

689
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: You cool with that, absolutely go ahead?

690
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: All right for me? It is you're right, I can

691
00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: do what I want. Why I'm even ask for permission?

692
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 1: It's the Bucks and the Giants. I believe the line

693
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: is Bucks laying six and a half. Now. I like

694
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: the Bucks actually as a team. I think their defense

695
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: is stronger than most people realize, and I would have

696
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: liked them probably at minus six and a half against

697
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 1: Eli Manning, and realistically, I think their odds probably improve

698
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: a little bit. With Daniel Jones, as Rufus Peabody and

699
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: I talked about on Monday, but there's just too much

700
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: of an unknown factor here for me to really want

701
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: to get involved with it. Jones looked great in the preseason,

702
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: I don't really know how much of that, if any,

703
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: will be on display during the regular season. And with

704
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: someone like Teddy Bridgewater who we just talked about, and

705
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: a coach like Sean Payton, I feel much more comfortable

706
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: as to what I'm going to be able to expect

707
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: when I see them in action with this one, though

708
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: I'm personally staying away. I don't know how you feel

709
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: about it.

710
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 2: I'm actually you know, I mentioned both of us being

711
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 2: in the Super Contest and it's really hard because, as

712
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 2: you and I said, this is kind of like having

713
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: bye weeks where you just kind of have to cross

714
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 2: games off the list. I actually like the Giants in

715
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: this one, so this is one that I do kind

716
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: of have a little bit of an opinion on. I

717
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 2: think their defense is better than they've played. I think

718
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 2: Kellen Moore in that offense with Dak Prescott, they're gonna

719
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 2: blitz a lot of teams here this year like they

720
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 2: did to the Giants. And then also, I mean, yeah,

721
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 2: you lost to Buffalo, but you know, Buffalo is a

722
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 2: pretty good team. I think I don't think people are

723
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: giving Buffalo enough credit market wide for what they've been

724
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: able to do here in the first two games. So

725
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: I actually like the Giants a little bit. And maybe

726
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: it's more of a fade of that Bucks offense and

727
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,239
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston in particular, because I do agree with you

728
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: Bruce arians is doing work with that defense, and I

729
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 2: think that's what we kind of all expected.

730
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, Todd Bowles, whatever he's doing over there,

731
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: is really working with him. I mean, look, you might

732
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: be right about the Giants defense. I mean they allowed

733
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: twenty eight points, you know, to the Bills. They just

734
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: I don't see them. They don't have a pass rush. Really,

735
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: I don't like their secondary outside of you know, Jenoris Jenkins.

736
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: It just it strikes me as something where I don't

737
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: really know whether or not they're going to be able

738
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: to keep it close. And for me, it's just I

739
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: don't really know what to look at with Jones. I know,

740
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: I think you know a lot of sharp beetters are

741
00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 1: more in on them. I don't know. Also, how you

742
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: if you changed your view on it with then with

743
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: Eli Manning, did you like the game before Jones took over.

744
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: No, I wouldn't have looked at it with you. I

745
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: think Jones can make throws that Eli can't at this

746
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 2: stage of his career, and you know, maybe help that

747
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 2: defense out a little bit. I mean that's part of

748
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 2: it too, is you know, if you've got a bad

749
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: offense or a very inefficient offense at that it exposes

750
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,479
Speaker 2: a bad defense in a hurry, especially in the NFL.

751
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,959
Speaker 2: So I think Jones can make some of those throws,

752
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: and also too, depending on the game plan they come

753
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: up with. Saquon Barkley is the best player on the field,

754
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: and I know Mike Evans is out there for Tampa Bay. Well,

755
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: Barkley is the best player on the field. He's gonna

756
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 2: get more touches now with the Daniel Jones era, So

757
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: I think that helps the Giants too.

758
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it should be interesting. I think for me,

759
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: I just I don't ever read on Jones. I have

760
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: no idea what he's going to look like here in

761
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: his first game. I know he looked great in the preseason,

762
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: but it's just something where something like this, when you

763
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: have these unknown in these variables, I like to stay away.

764
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: I will note though, that I am going to have

765
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: some action on the game because Points Bett is offering

766
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: boosted odds for Daniel Jones to throw a touchdown pass

767
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 1: on Sunday. So the odds for Jones to throw a

768
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 1: touchdown pass if you didn't have the boost of odds,

769
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: are currently at minus three thirty five, which makes sense

770
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: you assume that he's probably going to throw at least

771
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 1: one touchdown pass. But with the boosted odds that points

772
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 1: Bet is offering, it's even money. I mean that that's nuts.

773
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: The odds that he's gonna throw at least one touchdown

774
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: pass are really really strong, and with the promotion. You

775
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: just get even money on that bet. If you want

776
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: more details in that promotion, just go to bettingpros dot

777
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,479
Speaker 1: com slash Jones. All Right, buddy, what's your pick to avoid?

778
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 2: My pick to avoid here, I'm gonna go one spot

779
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 2: down by rotation number, and that's four seventy nine, four

780
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 2: eighty Carolina and Arizona. I mean, look, there's a very

781
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 2: good chance that Carolina is better this week without Cam Newton,

782
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 2: just because of how Cam Newton looked dealing with that

783
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 2: foot injury last week. But I don't know that for sure.

784
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: I don't know what you get from Kyle Allen in

785
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: this game, and also too for Arizona. Look, I know

786
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 2: they hung with Baltimore last last week and a lot

787
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 2: of credit for that, but once again, you know they've

788
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:58,719
Speaker 2: played really the equivalent of one good quarter in that

789
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 2: game on offense, and that's just not going to do

790
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 2: it more often than not. I know they got that

791
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: tie with the Lions in Week one. I don't know

792
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: where Kyler Murray's at here. I'd like to think that

793
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: maybe Cliff Kingsbury improves this team as we go along,

794
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: but also i'd like to think they he'd be smart

795
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 2: enough not to kick field goals inside the five. But

796
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 2: since he keeps doing that, and since I've been ranting

797
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 2: about coaching all year long on my podcast, I don't

798
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 2: know where this game ends up going. So this is

799
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 2: a definite stay away for me.

800
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 1: I think I'm glad you brought that up because Arizona

801
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 1: against Baltimore and the field goals last week was really,

802
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,399
Speaker 1: really maddening. I mean, I don't get it. I kind

803
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: of assume that they're going to learn their lesson from that.

804
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 1: But it is interesting because the point spread I think

805
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: swung roughly five points. I think the Panthers were laying

806
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 1: two and a half before the Newton injury. If I

807
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: had that correct and now they're getting two and a

808
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 1: half for the same reason, then I'm avoiding the Bucks Giants.

809
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 1: I agree. If you were out of curiosity, if you

810
00:34:58,080 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: were forced to choose a side here, which way would

811
00:34:59,719 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: you go?

812
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 2: If I was forced to take aside, I mean, I'd

813
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 2: have to go with Arizona, because you know, Carolina's defense

814
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 2: was so good a couple of years ago. Some of

815
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 2: those guys are aging, some of those guys have moved on.

816
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 2: Of course, Steve Wilkes was you know, defensive coordinator there

817
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: for a year moved on. I would have to look

818
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 2: Arizona here, just because I think there's maybe some more

819
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: creativity to them that maybe Riverboat Ron can't really you know,

820
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: account for in the lead up to this game. Whereas

821
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 2: for Carolina, it's gonna be a lot of Christian McCaffrey,

822
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 2: and if you stop him, then you probably stop Carolina's offense.

823
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is why it's a good game to avoid,

824
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 1: because if I'm forced to two's, I'm probably taking the

825
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 1: Panthers just because in the end, Newton was so terrible

826
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: last week against the Bucks. I had no faith in

827
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 1: him whatsoever. So if you're basically looking at the spread

828
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: to me, I get, of course, you know you're taking

829
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 1: a replacement quarterback, so you know, theoretically it's a downgrade,

830
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 1: and it probably isn't probably should be in the spread.

831
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at the Panthers laying two and

832
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 1: a half and now they're getting two and a half,

833
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 1: to me, if anything, this might be an upgrade for

834
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 1: them on offense. So I think the point about it,

835
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: and that's really the reason I ask, because I kind

836
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 1: of assume that if you're forced to two sides. Most

837
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 1: people are probably gonna go with the Cardinals, right because

838
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 1: they've at least shown something and it's more of a certainty.

839
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: And I would take the Panthers if I was forced

840
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 1: to choose, which I'm not and I'm not going to

841
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 1: And I think that that pretty much highlights why it's

842
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: a great bet to probably avoid this weekend. Before we

843
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 1: get to our last segment, I do want to tell

844
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 1: you about another one of our sponsors, Sideboss Now. I've

845
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 1: been telling you about their NFL Pro Pick Them contests

846
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: since we started the show, and if you missed it,

847
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,880
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848
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 1: and be eligible to win prizes throughout the season. But

849
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: they have a lot more than just their NFL Pro

850
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. They've also got player prop contest for quarterbacks,

851
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 1: running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, and really, player

852
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 1: props can be even more enjoyable than betting on games, honestly,

853
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 1: And I'm a little bummed that they don't have any

854
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: kicker props because I just take the under on whatever

855
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 1: prop they set for the Jets kickers. But I'll get

856
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,680
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862
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863
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: That's contest dotsideboss dot com. Promo code betting pros. I

864
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 1: have time for top Prop where we list our top

865
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 1: player prop for the week. I stole your thunder last time.

866
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 1: You can go first right here.

867
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 2: No, it's all good man, not a problem. You know

868
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 2: something I'm kind of looking at here, and this is

869
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 2: a game that I've kind of waffled back and forth on.

870
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 2: But Houston and the Chargers is a really interesting game

871
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,879
Speaker 2: in that four to twenty five window. Really all three

872
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 2: of those games interesting for different reasons, but we don't

873
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 2: have all the injury considerations in this one. Kind of

874
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: trying to figure out what the game flow may look

875
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 2: like for this game, because you've got a Chargers secondary

876
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 2: now they're what on their third safety with Derwin James out,

877
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 2: and then last week their replacement gets hurt. I kind

878
00:37:58,320 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 2: of feel like, if you're the Chargers, you want to

879
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 2: keep the ball away from Deshaun Watson as much as

880
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 2: you possibly can here in this game. So I think

881
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 2: Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson are both very busy, but

882
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: I think Eckler is just a better fit here to

883
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 2: run against that Houston defense, get outside the tackles, make

884
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 2: JJ Watt go sideline to sideline, make Merciless run around

885
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 2: as well. I think that that I'm kind of looking

886
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 2: at Austin Eckler. I think that this player prop is

887
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 2: gonna come out somewhere in the fourteen and a half

888
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 2: to fifteen range on number of carries that he gets.

889
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 2: I guess could be a pretty heavy workload for him

890
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 2: here in this game. I just think he's a little

891
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 2: bit better of a fit against the Texans than Justin

892
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 2: Jackson is, and mayhawk a couple of those carries as

893
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: a result.

894
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Eckler, you had the fumble late in

895
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: the game on the goal line when he stretched it unnecessarily,

896
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,240
Speaker 1: But he's the guy, I mean, and even though Jackson's

897
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: running well, Eckler is certainly the quote unquote Bell cow Back.

898
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: I mean he's seeding some touches, of course, but they

899
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: love him. He's running well, They're going to lean on

900
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: the run and try to control that game. I mean,

901
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: I think it's that game strikes me as a pretty

902
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: close game. I think it's the spread is Chargers laying three.

903
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 1: I expect it to be tight because of that. I

904
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: expect also the Chargers to lean on the run a

905
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 1: little bit, even heavier than they usually do. And so

906
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,279
Speaker 1: I definitely like that, especially considering without Hunter Henry. I mean,

907
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 1: Mike Williams is there, but he's banged up. You know,

908
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 1: he played through it last week. But they don't have

909
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 1: that many passing options going on right now. So I

910
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: think leaning on the run in what is sure to

911
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 1: be a close game is a really good pick. I'm

912
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 1: going to take Adam Thielen to go over one hundred

913
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: receiving yards and that's at minus one thirteen. Now, the

914
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 1: fact that the vig is so bad at even over

915
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,319
Speaker 1: one hundred yards is kind of annoying, but there's a

916
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 1: reason for it. I mean, it's been a bad start

917
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 1: for the Vikings passing game. We talked about it when

918
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: you were breaking down the Raiders Vikings game. But DeLand

919
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 1: had seventy five yards last week against the tough Packers defense,

920
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: even when Kirk Cousin looked pretty terrible. And as I said,

921
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,480
Speaker 1: for the reasons I said before, it feels like a

922
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 1: get right game to me for the Vikings, and especially

923
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 1: with their pass offense, because their rushing ability has been great.

924
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: Cook has been amazed. He's doing great in the zone

925
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 1: blocking scheme that Kubiak has kind of let go there.

926
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 1: And the Raiders' pass defense it's not great. The defense

927
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: as a hole has played better than I expected, but

928
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 1: they don't really have a strong pass rush. They don't

929
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 1: have great cornerbacks. But in particular, thelan's going to be

930
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: in the slot. He's probably gonna be guarded by Lamarcush

931
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: Joiner and he has not done well in coverage there.

932
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 1: I think the Vikings know that that is probably the

933
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 1: best way to exploit the Raiders to the extent they're

934
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: going to take advantage of it through the air. Now

935
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: I like Digs too. I think he's going to have

936
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 1: probably a pretty good game. But for me, I feel

937
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 1: like this is a game where the Vikings when they

938
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: do go through the air, they lean on THELAN pretty

939
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 1: heavily given his matchup in the slot. So even at

940
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: minus one thirteen, personally, I will take THELAN to top

941
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 1: one hundred yards.

942
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 2: And that is my worry about that game. You know,

943
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 2: Like I said, I think that John Gruden and Paul

944
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: Gunthro are going to have the game plan of let's

945
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 2: stop the run. Let's make Kirk Cousins beat us. If

946
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins is gonna beat him, it's probably gonna be

947
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 2: with THELAN. I know, Diggs is kind of the home

948
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: run hitter, had that touchdown taken off the board last week,

949
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown, took his helmet off like a moron,

950
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 2: feeling probably is the guy here this week. So that

951
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 2: is my worry about, you know, Oakland covering the number.

952
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:07,800
Speaker 2: But you know, hey, I mean again, it's one of

953
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,359
Speaker 2: those things where he's got to he's in a time

954
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,919
Speaker 2: share with Digs. Basically, if who gets those looks, who

955
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 2: gets those targets? So hey, if he breaks a couple

956
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: of big ones, gets over that century mark, then he's

957
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 2: definitely in good shape. And unfortunately for me with Oakland,

958
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 2: Oakland may be in bad shape.

959
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 1: If that's the case, well, I honestly think that he

960
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: can get past one hundred yards pretty easily, even if

961
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: it's not a blowout, because I think when they go

962
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: in the end, I like both of them. I think

963
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: that they will establish it. But in the end, I

964
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 1: do think that when they go to the air here,

965
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 1: Feeling's just got the better matchup in the slot, and

966
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: I think that that's really going to be where their

967
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:43,439
Speaker 1: bread is buttered. So I think when they go there

968
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 1: they can get it. And I don't necessarily think that's

969
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: incompatible with the vikings not covering the nine and a

970
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: half points spread. I just think when they do go

971
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: to the pass, that's really where they're going to go.

972
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:54,879
Speaker 1: But again, I like both, and I do think it's

973
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 1: a little bit of a get right game for the

974
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 1: passing game. Well that's gonna do it, my friend. Thanks

975
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: again for joining me again for ever two time guests,

976
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 1: so you'll always have that honor. Remind everybody where they

977
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.

978
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 2: You can find me over at bangbook dot com. Every

979
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: Monday through Friday, I host bang the Book Radio, which

980
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 2: is anywhere from an hour to an hour and a

981
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: half just talking about all things handicapping out there in

982
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 2: the industry, got some very good guests that join me

983
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,800
Speaker 2: every week and on Fridays I record my Super Contest

984
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 2: segment with you know, my reluctant five selections each week

985
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 2: in the NFL. So you can check that out over

986
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 2: at Bang Thebook dot com and of course we're on

987
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 2: all the major podcast sites as well.

988
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 1: Awesomebody, Well, I hope that you come back and you

989
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:34,399
Speaker 1: can be our first three time returning guests. Does sound good?

990
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 2: Sounds good to me. Appreciate it, awesomebody.

991
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:38,920
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998
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999
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with your wagers this week, and my friends,

1000
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 1: we'll be back breaking down the early lines next week.