1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all right. 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 3: Here we go there throwing in song. 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: Spect I'm sitting. 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 3: It's a cash touch that we see most gamblers when 6 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 3: they go to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible, 7 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 3: big bank, small banks. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right. This is the 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: ultimate combine. 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 4: If you want to fall. 11 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 3: And we are underway. 12 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. 13 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 3: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined 14 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 3: as always on this fun wild card week with Brandon Anderson. 15 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 3: We're together for the recap pod, the Best Bets pod, 16 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 3: but this is different. This is the Playoff Futures pod, 17 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 3: which we will talk about super Bowl Conference, some super 18 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 3: Bowl MVP long shots that both Brandon and I like. 19 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 3: But Brandon, first of all, what's going on. It's a 20 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 3: happy season. I know for a lot of us when 21 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 3: it goes from thirty two teams to fourteen teams, it's 22 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 3: just it's nicer to to dive into these teams individually. 23 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 3: But what do you think, happy season? 24 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels good. And you know we go fourteen 25 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: down to eight like everyone as alas like checking in 26 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: on me around this time, like, oh man, how you doing, 27 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: Like it's playoffs, right, I'm like, oh, is great. Like 28 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: we're chopping off half the teams each week, the job 29 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: gets easier and easier. These are the teams we know, 30 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: we know their strengths, we know the weaknesses. So I 31 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: mean easier in some retrospects. But I'm a celebratory mood 32 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: right now. I got my ndsu hoodie on ten championships 33 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: in fourteen years. FCS home in North Dakota. Celebrate that one. 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 1: We're only four teams, fourteen teams left in NFL now. 35 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 1: Nine of the fourteen have at least three percent applied 36 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds. Six of the teams have at least 37 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: five percent Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, Philly, Minnesota. So 38 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: we're really narrowing in on who can win the championship now. 39 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: And so yeah, we've got today, I've got a Super 40 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: Bowl by and one bet to win a conference. I've 41 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: got five Super Bowl long shots. It's just kind of 42 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: a quick one to get some futures on the docket 43 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: that hopefully, if you've been following all year, hopefully folks 44 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: are adding to the portfolio, not starting new, but just 45 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: hopefully getting us off on the right foot and then 46 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: we'll be back at the end of the week with 47 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: our usual best bets and go through the whole slate 48 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: like usual. 49 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:21,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to go one by one here, We're 50 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 3: going to start with Brandon's Super Bowl. I'll give a 51 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 3: few angles on it. I'll just toss you a stat 52 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,399 Speaker 3: And this is something I use in my article which 53 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 3: is up on Action Network and its futures related. So, 54 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 3: since two thousand and eight, the eventual Super Bowl champion 55 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 3: has had has at least come from the top eight 56 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 3: in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs each year, including 57 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 3: from the top six in each of the past eleven seasons. 58 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 3: The team the last team to win outside the top 59 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 3: six in odds entering the playoffs with the twenty twelve Ravens. 60 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 3: So usually these longer shots tend to not make it 61 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 3: all the way through, at least in recent form. When 62 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 3: you've got Mahomes winning Super Bowls every year, it seems like, 63 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 3: but the top six and odds are the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, 64 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 3: and Vikings, with the seventh being the Packers and the 65 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 3: eighth being the Bucks. Last time I look, so just 66 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 3: a little stat, a little you know, set up here now, Brandon, 67 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 3: who's your super Bowl bet? And kind of walk us 68 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: through that one. 69 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, so this shouldn't be a big surprise. This is 70 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: one that we've talked about, a team that I like 71 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: much of the season. I'm back in the Ravens plus 72 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 1: six hundred at most books, they're six till one. You're 73 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 1: gonna find a lot of consensus on Super Bowl odds 74 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: right now. 75 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 2: So here's the case. 76 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: The Ravens have been the best team all season by 77 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: most metrics. Really, they're number one in DVA. They were 78 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: the best team last season regular season by most metrics. 79 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: This year they are the seventh best DVAA team ever 80 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: they've been tracking since nineteen seventy eight. They're two spots 81 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: behind last year's Ravens team. That's how good this team 82 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: has been over two years. And I know we know 83 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: what they do about in the playoffs so far. We 84 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: know Lamar Jackson hasn't got the playoff wins. We know 85 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: their reputation. But the playoffs are a very small sample 86 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: sized thing, and we have a large sample, two full 87 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: seasons of data that says the Ravens are really really good. 88 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: Number one offense, Number one rushing number one passing. That 89 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: offensive line was a big question coming to the season. 90 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: They've really reworked that and found their way. Jay Flowers 91 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 1: once it gets past the injury Pro Bowl receiver him 92 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: and Bateman and Isaiah likely have really stepped up. Derrick 93 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 1: Henry obviously has been a monster this year, almost two 94 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: thousand yards rushing, sixteen touchdowns. He's the guy I wrote 95 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: back in March when they signed him. I might actually 96 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 1: be able to believe in this team the postseason because 97 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: of Derrick Henry. That's the closer, that's the hammer that 98 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: gets better and better December January in the weather and 99 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: we've seen it. You've got Lamar Jackson with his ability 100 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: to move and scramble, You've got Derrick Henry power rush 101 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: up the middle, and then you have Lamark standing plays 102 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: passing over the top. There's just no defensive way to 103 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 1: cover horizontally and vertically entire space of the field when 104 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: the Ravens are rolling. There hasn't been really an answer 105 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: for them. And now over the back half of the season. 106 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 1: Defense top five also about as good as anyone in 107 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: the league, especially big leap in pass defense. We talked 108 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: about it Marlon Humphrey back into the slot, Cayle Hamilton 109 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 1: mostly at safety, not moon around as much, Dean Peas 110 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: and Zach Orr. They've really kind of got the defense right. 111 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: Todd Munkin did not have a great game calling last 112 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 1: year in the playoffs, but he's been doing pretty good 113 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 1: job can plays this year. We love the coaching John 114 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 1: Harbaugh really the whole package. Ironically, under Harbaugh team, the 115 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: only real weakness might be Justin Tucker and those special 116 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 1: teams have not been reliable this year, but for much 117 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: of these last couple of years, the only real team 118 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 1: that can actually beat the Ravens is usually the Ravens. 119 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,600 Speaker 1: They beat themselves sometimes. Lamar has made some mistakes late, 120 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: They've had some questionable play calling. But now look the 121 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: path they're playing Pittsburgh. They just destroyed Pittsburgh a few 122 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: weeks ago. Then they played Buffalo in all likelihood they 123 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: beat Buffalo thirty five to ten. Henry had almost two 124 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: hundred yards in that game. And the Bills and bad 125 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,119 Speaker 1: against the power run all year. They came an inch away, 126 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 1: literally from taking the Chiefs to overtime in the opener, 127 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl winning opener in Kansas City. I think 128 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: They're the better offense and defense in that matchup. I 129 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: really can't find a matchup where I don't like the Ravens. 130 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: In the NFC, I'm gonna like the Ravens better as 131 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: the more complete team. And even though I have my 132 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 1: doubts of o Lamar Jackson, the better quarterback than ANYFC 133 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: team has to offer more explosiveness. There's just no spot 134 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,479 Speaker 1: where I don't like the Ravens. So obviously, the one 135 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: thing you don't love here is they're the five or sorry, 136 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: they're the three seed, so they're probably gonna have to 137 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: go on the road to Buffalo in Kansas City. What 138 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: I like about that is books know that too, so 139 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: that's priced in, and if I think they're the better team, 140 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: I'm getting a little bit better odds on the pricing. 141 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 1: So I have Baltimore twenty seven percent to win the AFC, 142 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: almost eighteen to win the Super Bowl. FTN has them 143 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 1: twenty one percent. That means I should have Baltimore around 144 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: plus four hundred plus four fifty. We're getting a plus 145 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: six hundred. So that's my monologue on the Ravens at 146 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: the top. This is my team. I have them plus 147 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: eleven hundred from a few weeks ago, but I still 148 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: like them even a plus six hundred here Ravens for 149 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. 150 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, if you look in the futures market, Baltimore and 151 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 3: Buffalo are price exactly the same. So it's really just saying, 152 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: as long as both those teams take care of business 153 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 3: against Denver and Pittsburgh, which I think we know agree 154 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 3: eight and a half nine point favorites. Both pick your 155 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 3: poison with which team do you like better? And that's 156 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 3: probably a decent price this week. So I completely get 157 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 3: with the Baltimore pick. I think the thing I'm scared of, 158 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 3: which you mentioned, is a little Za Flowers like without 159 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 3: him in the offense and the amount that they tend 160 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 3: to rely on him in certain areas. It's a little 161 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 3: scary making Rashad Bateman, you're one, but I completely understand it. 162 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 3: I mean, they just dominated Pittsburgh, so. 163 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 2: All good there. 164 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 3: Before I toss it back to you for conference which 165 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 3: I don't even really have, like a conference championship pick. 166 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 3: The one thing I was going to talk about here 167 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 3: was kind of the rollover versus the futures. The three 168 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 3: teams that I listed were the Chargers, Commanders and Rams 169 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 3: as I think opportunities to potentially like make a run. 170 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 3: I like those three teams in the first round mostly, 171 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 3: and I think, you know, using as the Chargers as 172 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: an example, minus one fifty right now on the money 173 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 3: line in the wild card you assume they win the game, 174 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 3: they would get what probably the Chiefs unless there's an upset, 175 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 3: so at that point it's like plus three hundred, and 176 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 3: then after that it's if they beat them Bill's Ravens, 177 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 3: you assume a similar price. So even getting to the 178 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 3: super Bowl, the Chargers are thirty to one in the 179 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 3: market right now, they'd be about twenty five to one 180 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 3: with those three bets. So I like those three teams. 181 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 3: I just you know, shop around, try to find creative 182 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 3: ways of doing that. But that is my rollover super 183 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 3: Bowl bet Shpiel. Let's go to a go to you 184 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 3: for the conference bet here so you have a little 185 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 3: bit of another side because you kind of probably like 186 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:10,599 Speaker 3: these two teams. 187 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 2: To meet in the Super Bowl. 188 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Eagles plus three point fifty to 189 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,840 Speaker 1: win the NFC, And I'll talk about why NFC and 190 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: not just a Super Bowl bet here. Ironically, I actually 191 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: said last January, I wrote an article who will be 192 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: next year's fill in the blank of the teams that 193 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 1: have been good a year ago. And I thought the 194 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: Eagles might be last year's Ravens this year, and they're 195 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 1: kind of looking the part right now. They got both 196 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: new coordinators. I thought that they might start out slow, 197 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: and they did. They were two and two into the 198 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: bye week. Then the defense took over. Vic Fangio got 199 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 1: Jalen Carter, got Zach Bond unlocked at linebacker, Quinon Mitchell 200 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: and Cooper to Gene. We've seen a corner of those 201 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: rookies really taken over since the bye week. This is 202 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 1: the number one defense in football. They're allowing under sixteen 203 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,719 Speaker 1: points a game since the buye They've allowed twenty or 204 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: last all but two games in that span, and only 205 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: really Washington is the only team that really got to 206 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: the Defenseington at fourteen going to the fourth quarter. So really, 207 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: if you think of it that way, since the start 208 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,959 Speaker 1: of October, the Eagles defense has had one bad quarter. 209 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: That's a pretty good defense and a pretty good spine, 210 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: and then we already know what they're on. Offense, they 211 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: are the best running team in football. Running the ball 212 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: is even more important in the weather. In these playoff games. 213 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: The best offensive line in the league. They have Saquon Barkley, 214 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: who quite pretty much should have broken the record but 215 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 1: sat out the week. He can score anytime the week 216 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: link here. The question mark is the passing game. When 217 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: they have Ager, Brown, DeVante and Goddard healthy, They've been 218 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: about as good as anyone, but it's inconsistent and Jalen Hurts. 219 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: I don't love having a ton of money on Jalen 220 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 1: Hurts because I don't trust necessarily that he can make 221 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: the big play. 222 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: He does have the tush push still valuable. 223 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 1: He's been more valuable scrambling this year than designed runs. 224 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: That's a more valuable run play anyway, I don't love 225 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: him as a passer. And if I get to a 226 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, now I have to have Hurts against a 227 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: quarterback that I'm gonna like better Mahomes or Lamar, Josh Allen, 228 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: or even if they get that far, maybe Herbert or Stroud. 229 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: I probably still rather have those guys than I'd rather 230 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 1: have Jalen Hurts. I don't like having the worst quarterback 231 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: in a super Bowl matchup. I probably will make the 232 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: Eagles underdogs in the super Bowl, so I'm kind of 233 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 1: back to your rollover situation here. I like the Eagles, 234 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: but I'd rather just take them in the NFC and 235 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: then decide what to do from there in the super Bowl. 236 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: To me, this is the formula from two years ago 237 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 1: when the Eagles made the Super Bowl. Only now they 238 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: have Saquon Barkley and now they have better coordinators offense 239 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: and defense. A little unlucky getting the Packers here in 240 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: the first round, but a little lucky that maybe Jordan 241 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,319 Speaker 1: Love is still hurt and Christian Watson is hurt and 242 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 1: again boosting her outs a little bit because the books 243 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: know too that it is a more difficult matchup. So 244 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: I gets the most complete team in the NFC. I 245 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 1: have them thirty one percent to make the NFC. To 246 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 1: win the NFC ftn is at thirty percent, that should 247 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 1: be about plus two twenty five. We're getting a plus 248 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: three fifty. So that's my bet. And like you said, 249 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 1: if you like both of them here, Ravens Eagles had 250 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: to have Super Bowl is sixteen to one. I would 251 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: have that around ten to one. Odds Ravens over the 252 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 1: Eagle Super Bowl is thirty to one. If you want 253 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: to do the parlay, the Matt Moore exacta, if you will. 254 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: So those are my two picks heading into the playoffs here. 255 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the Philly pick. 256 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 3: I mean, we're going to talk about super Bowl MVP 257 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 3: futures in a second, and I think focusing on the 258 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 3: best teams and a long shot on the best teams 259 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: is an interesting angle to take. And I'm going to 260 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 3: talk about Philly in that one, but really their path 261 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 3: to the super Bowl, Philly is only going to be 262 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 3: an underdog against Detroit. Aside from that, you're going to 263 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 3: be favored to win the games. And at that point, 264 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 3: it feels like an investment right now. On that price, 265 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 3: either at your NFC price or in the market, there's 266 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:45,719 Speaker 3: seven to one to win the super Bowl, which I 267 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 3: don't think is a bad price there, either considering what 268 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 3: you know. You're basically betting on the two games, or 269 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 3: if you lose it before that, you just lost your bet. 270 00:12:54,640 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 3: Pretty simple there, All Right, super Bowl MVP futures. I 271 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 3: will let you go first because I have a lot 272 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 3: of names written down because I really just think some 273 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 3: of these are defensive players, and from my point of view, 274 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 3: it's literally five dollars or so, and it's gonna win you, 275 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 3: you know, over a thousand on a few of these. 276 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 3: But you're kind of just investing, in my opinion, on 277 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 3: some of the good teams, rooting for those good teams 278 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 3: to get within a game of the Super Bowl, and 279 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 3: if they get there, you'd probably throw the five dollars 280 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 3: on them anyway, and hopefully they're you know, half the price, 281 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 3: a third of the price, all right, you go first. 282 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, So what I'm looking for here is one of 283 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: two things, and you kind of hit the nail on 284 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: the head. I think here, either I want the quarterback 285 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,719 Speaker 1: mispriced of a long shot team, or I want a 286 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 1: not quarterback misspriced of a more favorite team. So that'skind 287 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: what I'm looking for. Since twenty ten, fifteen Super Bowl 288 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: MVPs eleven quarterbacks, Like, we know that we're gonna give 289 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: the award to the winning quarterback. That's what the award 290 00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: usually goes to. If it's not that. We do have 291 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: two defenders in there, and we have two receivers. Before that, 292 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: three of the last five and two thousand and five 293 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: to Zho nine were receivers. So receivers are in the 294 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: mix here. Running backs not in the mix. Do you 295 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: know Evan who is the last running back or when 296 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: was the last running back to win Super Bowl MVP. 297 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 3: I'm taking complete guests, and I actually should know this, 298 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 3: but Terrell Davis, I don't know. 299 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: Terrell Davis is in ninety eight. That's how long it 300 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: has been, almost three decades now. So I've got five 301 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: picks for you here, all long shots. These are all 302 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: like quarter unit five dollars type bets. Whatever you want 303 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: to do, just a little nibble here, Well, let me 304 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: give you a first quarterback to kind of fit what 305 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: I'm looking at here. And surprise here, because I don't 306 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: even really love this team, but Matthew Stafford is sixty 307 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: six to one to win Super Bowl MVP. Now, the 308 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 1: Rams are thirty five to one to win the Super 309 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: Bowl at most books, and that's really the entire bet 310 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 1: for me. Stafford would only have to be the MVP 311 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: in about fifty four percent of all Rams super Bowl 312 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: wins for that to be a better bet than just 313 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: betting the Rams. And that's the bet. It's a value play, 314 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: even on a team that I don't believe in, because 315 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: in what world? How many times do the Rams win 316 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl? And it's not Stafford winning MVP. Okay, well, 317 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: I can tell you one of them the world that 318 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: happened already because Cooper Cup won MVP when Stafford won 319 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. However, thirteen quarterbacks ever have won multiple 320 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 1: Super Bowls. Only twice has a quarterback win multiple Super 321 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: Bowls and not at least won an MVP. Bob Greasy 322 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 1: and Big Ben. I think if we finally get to 323 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: a second one and Stafford has the crowning, crowning achievement 324 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: to his career, it's got to be him. Maybe it's 325 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 1: the Puka Nakua Cooper Cup thing again, but we know 326 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: if the Rams win, it's the passing. That's what they're 327 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: good at. The path is pretty good, you get the 328 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: emotional letdown Vikings, Sam Darnold Road debut, then you probably 329 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: at some point get Stafford against the Lions. We've seen 330 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: that matchup. We've seen him go head to head with 331 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: them and be able to beat them. Stafford at his best, 332 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: I don't trust him to get to his best enough, 333 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: but at his best he matches throw throw with any 334 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 1: quarterback in the NFC, even those guys in the AFC. 335 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: So I think if you just expect, maybe the Rams 336 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: get hot and Stafford Nikulan Cup just tear through teams. 337 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: Sixty six to one is just a way better bet 338 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: than almost half that price for Rams. So that's one 339 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: bet on a quarterback here. Do you have any quarterbacks 340 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: on your list that you're looking at for Super Bowl MVP? 341 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 3: It was so funny, So Stafford's on my list as 342 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,360 Speaker 3: well because I picked the Rams, and I completely agree 343 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 3: with you that the price is just a little a 344 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 3: little missed, just in the fact that, like, if they 345 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 3: got there and it was on his back, I think 346 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 3: his odds just should match their Super Bowl odds a 347 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 3: little closer. I was tempted by Puka, who's like one 348 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 3: hundred and fifty, considering he would be like, the media 349 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 3: loves him, and I think the Super Bowl MVP tends 350 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 3: up being it tends to be a media award in 351 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 3: that sense, and no Korum means Kiren's definitely going to 352 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 3: get all the carries in that type of game. So 353 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy one hundred and eighty to one 354 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 3: was intriguing, but I agree Stafford's a great pick there. 355 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 2: Now. 356 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 3: The other two I even considered was Hurts because again 357 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 3: the Tush push, which you know I was pointing in 358 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 3: the screen when you mentioned that the first time. I 359 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 3: feel like that's a huge advantage in that type of game, 360 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 3: and that can bring him over the top, even with 361 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 3: Saquon there and what he can bring to the table. 362 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,959 Speaker 3: So Hurts was intriguing. The other one I was Jade Daniels. 363 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 3: I liked Washington on the rollover. If I think that 364 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,960 Speaker 3: they have a run in them, I mean, he's the story. 365 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 3: His price should almost be no different than their Super 366 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 3: Bowl price. There's just no way they're ever going to 367 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 3: consider someone else in that game if a rookie gets there. 368 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 3: So I just felt like his odds should be kind 369 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 3: of dead on. 370 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 2: But those are the quarterbacks I liked. 371 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, those make a lot of sense to me. I 372 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 1: looked at Daniels as well for the same reason. The 373 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: other quarterback for me that I will play is Jordan 374 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: Love thirty six to one odds and again very similar 375 00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: to a case. Packer's odds are twenty two to lot. 376 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,400 Speaker 1: We've heard me talk a lot about the Packers down 377 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 1: the stretch here, I mean on this team. I believe 378 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: in this team. Love only has to win MVP. Sixty 379 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: two percent of Packers Super Bowl wins for that to 380 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: be the right price for him. And again, in what 381 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: world do the Packers win four games and go to 382 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: the super Bowl? And there could be a lot of 383 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: reasons they win games. It's a solid, complete team, But 384 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: who else is winning MVP on this team other than 385 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 1: just like a one off performance Josh Jacobs or like literally, 386 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,199 Speaker 1: who's the next name down the list is there, like 387 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: Jayden Reid or just a defender or something. Love is 388 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: the budding superstar and winning the super Bowl is not 389 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: budding anymore. You're the superstar. So I wanted the Packers 390 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: to be the team I just gave out, not the Eagles. 391 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: I'm worried a little bit because of the love of 392 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: injury and because the path that's there. But the reason 393 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: I love them is coming in a Sunday. They were 394 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 1: the number one DVA team or the last six weeks 395 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,479 Speaker 1: their top four rushing and passing, offense and defense. And 396 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,719 Speaker 1: I know the main argument against green Bay here is 397 00:18:56,040 --> 00:19:00,200 Speaker 1: while they're zero to five against Philly, Detroit, Green and Minnesota. Okay, 398 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: let me spin that a different way. Green Bay lost 399 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: twice to Minnesota by two points. They lost an Alwaka 400 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: field goal to Detroit. They lost to Philly in a 401 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 1: close game and the opener with their quarterbacker on an 402 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 1: ice rink. To me, what I hear is they've played 403 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: the toughest competition they can possibly play in the NFC, 404 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: and they've gone head to head down to the were 405 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 1: coin flip games four to those five times. That to 406 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: me says this team can actually hang, has proven it 407 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: can hang rather than some of the other teams that 408 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: are getting beat up by these top teams. And again, 409 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,479 Speaker 1: like I've said, a few times, we're getting value because 410 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 1: of the tough path. The seventh seed is not fun. 411 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,399 Speaker 1: Only one seven seed ever has even won a game. 412 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 1: That was the Packers. This Packers team a year ago 413 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: they almost won twice. So I like the Packers here. 414 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: I want to do bet Packers. I couldn't because the 415 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: odds aren't in my favor. Adding Jordan Love MVPN rather 416 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: than a twenty two to one Packers to get a 417 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 1: thirty six to one MVP, now it's in my favor. 418 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: So I like Jordan Love. One other quarterback worth mentioning 419 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: here not a team that I believe, but the Texans 420 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:02,080 Speaker 1: are one hundred to one. 421 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 2: CJ. 422 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: Stroud is one hundred and fifty to one. Again, I 423 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 1: have to believe if you like the Texans, Stroud is 424 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,920 Speaker 1: the better bet than the Texans themselves. So those are 425 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 1: my other quarterbacks. Anything else from you before I jump 426 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: into my one running back pack. 427 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 3: Honestly, the other skill players that I had listed here 428 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,439 Speaker 3: was Ladd McConkie at one hundred and fifty, which I 429 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 3: thought was kind of intriguing. But I know how much 430 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 3: you like the quarterbacks with Herbert, and Herbert's also priced 431 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 3: higher than the Chargers. I don't know how many times 432 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 3: you know, Lad gets the MVP if Herbert doesn't. But 433 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,800 Speaker 3: he also has the ability to get like ten plus 434 00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 3: catches and two plus touchdowns and kind of had that 435 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 3: big game. I believe if the Chargers do get there, 436 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 3: and DeVonta at one hundred to me was interesting, all 437 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 3: the attention goes to AJ hopefully everyone plays in the 438 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 3: game and then someone like that has a big one 439 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 3: and the other one I just can't leave without, you know, 440 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 3: with what's going on as a flag Rashad Bateman six 441 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 3: hundred to one, So I just felt like, you know, 442 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 3: there's an option for like a long touchdown or Baltimore 443 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,880 Speaker 3: gets there, Flowers his complications, and even if Flowers plays, 444 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 3: maybe he's a decoy. They just either're down to him. 445 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 3: So I felt like at that price that was the 446 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 3: most intriguing. The other thing that's kind of funny here 447 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 3: is Montgomery's not even listed, and I know he's supposed 448 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 3: to be back for the playoffs, So it is a 449 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 3: media narrative award. But I assumes when he does get 450 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 3: listed and he is active, it'll be way too short 451 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,919 Speaker 3: to even consider. But I could see him sniping some 452 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 3: touchdowns in that situation, and then I had a bunch 453 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 3: of defensive players, but I can list that when you're done. 454 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, So the running back that I love here is 455 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,359 Speaker 1: actually what prompted me to want to write about the 456 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: MVP is probably no surprise. I love Derrick Henry here 457 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: forty five to one. The Raven super Bowl price we 458 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 1: just gave out six to one, so Henry would only 459 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 1: have to win MVP about fifteen percent of a Raven 460 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 1: super Bowl win in order to get that award. Compare 461 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: that to Jamiir Gibbs, he's about twenty three percent, or 462 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,920 Speaker 1: Sekuon Barkley thirty one percent, double what Derrick Henry's price 463 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: is and look, I know no running backs win this award, 464 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 1: but it is kind of the year of the running back. 465 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: That's the media narrative right now anyway, and I think 466 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry has the obvious narrative of what's the big 467 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: change that put them over the top. He's the piece 468 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: that the Ravens haven't had the last few years. He's 469 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: the guy that's going to be running well. The stats 470 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: will be there. He's scored a touchdown thirteen out of 471 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: seventeen games. He's at one hundred yards or more rushing 472 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: over half of them. He's at least one hundred and 473 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 1: fifty combined yards six of the games. That's a third 474 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: of them. And we've been doing that bet all season. 475 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: When the Ravens win a game, Henry to have one 476 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: hundred yards and two scores. He's done that in over 477 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 1: a quarter of all Ravens wins lifetime for his career. 478 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 1: Is that chicken her egg? I don't really know. But 479 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: when the Ravens win, Henry puts up numbers. He put 480 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 1: up decent numbers against the Eagles the last time. I 481 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: like him in the other matchups there as well. I 482 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: think Lamar's crowning narrative if they won the Super Bowl 483 00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 1: might just be too strong even if he didn't have 484 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: the better numbers. But Henry's going to have the stats. 485 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 1: At forty five to one, I think that's a great 486 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,120 Speaker 1: way to invest. And then I'll give you a chance 487 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: to list your defenders here, because my one defender I 488 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: bet is Cayle Hamilton one thousand to one. He's only 489 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 1: zero point seven percent of all Raven Super Bowl winners. 490 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: He's their defensive weapon. He's the guy I think they 491 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 1: would make the big play, the big sack, strips, sacks, safety, 492 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 1: interception return sort of thing. So because I love the Raves, 493 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: because they're my Super Bowl pick, he would be MINEU 494 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: one thousand to one. What other defenders that you have 495 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: before I get to two receivers and get out. 496 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: Of here, all right? 497 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 3: I had Kirby Joseph he was at like six hundred 498 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 3: to one. Kyle Hamilton was actually on my list as well, 499 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 3: so we both like Kyle Hamilton. On the side of 500 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 3: Kyle Hamilton, I like Marlon Humphrey. I could easily seeing 501 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 3: him do a pick six or have some sort of 502 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 3: impact that type of game. And Cooper de John same deal. 503 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 3: I like the Eagles. I think there's a chance that 504 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 3: a corner makes them play. Obviously there's I think there's 505 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 3: two positions. It's a corner or an edge, because you've 506 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 3: got to have like a touchdown or a stripsack and 507 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 3: a recovery or a pick six, Like there's gotta be 508 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 3: some sort of massive play. So I feel like those 509 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 3: are the two positions to kind of look at. 510 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 1: But back to you, all right, I'll finish out here 511 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 1: with two receivers, both with mostly the same last name. 512 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 1: Probably my favorite pickout all these is amanaa Saint Brown 513 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 1: seventy five to one. I think it's a terrible price 514 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: still hung out there. The Lions are favorites to win 515 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,440 Speaker 1: Super Bowl at plus three twenty. Amnaud only have to 516 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 1: win the MVP five point five percent of all Detroit 517 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: wins for that to be the right price for him. 518 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 1: Jared Goff is the number two MVP favorite, and maybe 519 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 1: that should be the case here. Maybe you just bet 520 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: the quarterback and winning team, like we've said, I don't 521 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: know that I believe Jared Goff would be the winner. 522 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: I'd be looking at their position of players or even 523 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,439 Speaker 1: like defender on this team am and ROV's price is 524 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 1: closer to James and Williams than it is to Jamior Gibbs. 525 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:49,239 Speaker 1: That doesn't make a lot of sense to me if 526 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: you look at the guys who are winning Super Bowl 527 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,719 Speaker 1: MVP as a receiver. Let me give you some numbers 528 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: and names here. Cooper Cup eight catches ninety two yards 529 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: and two scores, Julian Edelman ten for one hundred and 530 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: forty Santonio Holmes nine f one hundred and forty one, 531 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: Dan Branch eleven for one forty three. Those are Almanack 532 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,360 Speaker 1: Saint Brown lines. That is what he does in games 533 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,920 Speaker 1: is volume, catch a lot of passes, put up the numbers, 534 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,399 Speaker 1: move the chains, and do it on third down, and 535 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 1: do it in the red zone. We know he gets 536 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: the touchdowns. We know he's the third down. 537 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 2: Target for Goff. 538 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 1: Those are high leverage plays that we are going to 539 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 1: remember as voters in the Super Bowl. So I love 540 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: him here he's my favorite play. He averaged last year 541 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: seven catches for ninety one yards in the playoffs. He 542 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: owns the middle of the field. I think this is 543 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 1: just an egregious price for a Saint Brown. Seventy five 544 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 1: to one, and then a similar name, AJ Brown. One 545 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: hundred to one still a one book the Eagles at 546 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: seven to one, that's just a way off. Justin Jefferson 547 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 1: for the Vikings would win in over twenty percent of 548 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: their wins. AJ Brown's under eight percent by that pricing, 549 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 1: so I think that's a bad number for him. I 550 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 1: do like Almnah better. Kind of fits the profile of 551 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: past Super Bowl MVP receivers there. But AJ Brown can 552 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,280 Speaker 1: just explode at any given time. And we've seen with 553 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 1: the Eagles when they get the right matchup, when they 554 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,479 Speaker 1: see how open he is, they aren't afraid to just 555 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 1: spam the AJ Brown button over and over again and 556 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 1: just go back to him. Baltimore was really bad by 557 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 1: DV against wide receiver one all year, so that could 558 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,640 Speaker 1: set up nicely for him. Chiefs and Bills finish around 559 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,760 Speaker 1: league galwage against the past. I like these receivers from 560 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,439 Speaker 1: the NFC facing the AFC possibilities in the Super Bowl. 561 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 1: AJ Brown was eighteen to one last Super Bowl and 562 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 1: a popular bet to win MVP, so if we like 563 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: Philly to get to the super Bowl, hundred to one 564 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: is a crazy price. So those are the two to 565 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: wrap up here. Aman Ra and aj Saint Brown. 566 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, those prices though, I just feel like it's worth investing, 567 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 3: especially we were talking about it. I think the dart 568 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 3: throws should be put on the teams you believe most 569 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 3: will be there and he kind of work backwards from there. 570 00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 3: All right, Well, that is a lot of bets in 571 00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 3: like twenty or thirty minutes, So get out your notebooks 572 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 3: and I hope you enjoyed all of that. This has 573 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 3: been the Action Network podcast. I am Evan Abrams, that 574 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,199 Speaker 3: is Brandon Anderson. We will be back for best Bets, 575 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 3: Stuck in Raybott will be there, the Fantasy Flex will 576 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 3: be there. 577 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 2: So we will have tons of content. 578 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:19,679 Speaker 3: All week on actionnetwork dot Com and Action Network Podcasts and. 579 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 4: Look forward to seeing you on Saturday for the game. 580 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 4: See a letter everybody. 581 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 582 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 583 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 584 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 4: hundred Gambler