WEBVTT - Foreign Affairs Expert Leslie Gelb: Masters in Business (Audio) 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:07.560 This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:11.239 This week on Masters in Business, we have a very 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:16.040 special foreign affairs edition of our podcast. You know, given 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:19.520 everything that's been going on around the world, we have 0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:25.880 the Chinese currency devaluation, we have Russia invading Ukraine and 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:31.640 annexting CRIMEA were normalizing relations with Cuba, where in the 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:36.800 midst of an enormous policy negotiation about the Iran nuclear deal. 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:39.559 I thought it would be a good good time to 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:44.800 bring in somebody with a broad and deep expertise on 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:49.360 foreign affairs, and I was fortunate enough to somehow talk 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:54.400 Dr leslie Gelb into joining us. You know, if I 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.600 read his his curriculum Vita on the air, it would 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:01.440 take up the whole ninety minute podcast. He's just an 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:06.120 incredibly storied guy. Well we get into some of the 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:09.479 broader aspects of what he done. What he's done. UH 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:13.840 started as a just a PhD professor at at a school, 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:18.240 gets recruited by Senator Jacob Javits, was the you senator 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:20.720 from New York State to the U. S. Senate, UH 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.800 and from there the Department of Defense, the State Department 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:26.479 to the New York Times to the Council of Farm 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:31.360 Relations just he called it failing upwards, but let's be honest, 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:36.680 the guy is just a fascinating, amazing person. UM. General 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:40.240 McNamara appoints him to the head of the project that 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:45.440 essentially produces the famous Pentagon Papers, which was a broad 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:49.120 and deep look at the U S involvement in Vietnam 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:51.160 while we're still in the midst of Vietnam. It was 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:53.840 sort of a moment of reflection to figure out, Hey, 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:55.639 what are we doing right and wrong and what lessons 0:01:55.640 --> 0:01:59.600 can we learn about this for future military entanglements. His 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:06.240 concept of how to UM, how to interact with other countries, 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:12.799 the limits and positives of projecting both military and economic 0:02:12.840 --> 0:02:16.920 power quite fascinating. What he has to say UM about 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:21.239 China is amazing. He has some insights as to how 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:25.880 their military works, UH and where it works and where 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:33.720 they've purposefully avoided military entanglements is really quite quite fascinating. UM. 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:37.560 He tells stories about dinners with Fidel Castro and and 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:42.920 presenting to the UH generals of Cuba. Just really really 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:48.960 amazing stuff. I found it absolutely interesting. He is not 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:54.000 without controversy, UM, but usually it's for for good reasons 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.480 because he says things that the powers that be don't 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.200 like to hear, even though they're fact based and throw 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:03.640 and time and again have turned out to be correct. 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.440 Oh I left out in the middle of all these jobs. 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:09.880 He takes a position um in The New York Time 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:13.360 with The New York Times as a a foreign policies 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.919 correspondent and ultimately wins a Pulitzer Prize for his work 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:22.480 reporting on Ronald Reagan's strategic Defense Initiative in depth six 0:03:22.560 --> 0:03:26.040 part series. Ironically, here's a guy who never so much 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.160 has written for a high school paper, rights for the Times. 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:35.840 Wins of Pulitzer just just incredible, incredibly accomplished, unbelievably knowledgeable 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:39.520 and insightful. Given all the things that are going on 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:43.840 in the world, all the really major macro uh situations 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:47.800 that are roiling countries and currencies and economies, and of 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.120 course that impacts the market. Uh, what better time is 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:55.720 there than today for a conversation with Dr les galp So, 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:59.160 with no further ado, here's our discussion on foreign affairs 0:03:59.200 --> 0:04:09.160 with Leslie. Help. This is Masters in Business with Barry 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:13.880 Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. I have a very special guest 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:19.159 and the timing could not be more opportune. Dr Leslie Gelb, 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:23.240 whose curriculum Vitae, will take up the entire show if 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:25.320 I read it, but I will just give you the 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.840 brief overview as to why our guest is so perfect 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:33.800 given everything that's happening in the world, uh these days. 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.839 Dr Gelb got his b A and m A from 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:40.720 Tough University before getting his PhD from Harvard in nine. 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:47.279 He then taught government at Wesleyan before Jacob Javits recruited 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:52.039 him to become his executive assistance. Javits was the senator 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:56.600 from New York and one of my favorites. He ultimately 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.800 ended up becoming the Director of Bureau of Political Mill 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:04.120 at Terry Affairs. He was appointed by Secretary of Defense 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:08.599 McNamara as director of the project that ultimately produced the 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:12.839 Pentagon Papers. He then moved on to The New York Times, 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:17.159 where he was a diplomatic correspondent, winning the Pulitzer Prize 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.920 for Explanatory Journalism for a six part series on the 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:25.719 Star Wars Strategic Defense Initiative. President of the Council of 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:30.000 Foreign Relations, President Emeritus, and the rest of this list 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:34.599 is too long to go into author of numerous books 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:38.120 on foreign policy. Let me just stop there and say, 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.520 Dr Gelb, welcome to Bloomberg. Could you be here? So 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:46.320 the timing is really fortuitous. We've been talking about this 0:05:46.960 --> 0:05:50.040 some time ago, but here we are with all sorts 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:57.240 of things happening in I ran Uh, Cuba, China. The 0:05:57.600 --> 0:06:02.159 world has just really been um just going through all 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:06.400 sorts of of changes. Let's start with with your career 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.400 from the beginning. How do you end up going from 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:13.560 a professor out of college to essentially running the office 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:20.520 of a US sender. It was a miracle. You get 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:26.320 jobs initially based on connections who you know where, and 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:28.400 when I was doing my PhD at Harvard, I met 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:32.159 a lot of people. Some of these people were involved 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:38.320 with Republican politics in Congress, and one of these guys 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:42.000 heard that Javits was looking for an executive assistant to 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:46.920 focus on foreign affairs, international economics, defense, so forth, and 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.159 recommended me. I went to see Javits and then all 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:52.599 the rest of the career kind of flowed from there 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:57.240 because and this is something your your business people, financial 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:02.360 people will appreciate, is actually justice. I think two jobs 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.239 if you show you know how to get things done. 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:10.920 You're in a one cent at the top, and everybody 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:14.120 wants you because it means they don't have to worry 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.720 about doing it themselves. They give you an assignment and 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:18.760 it gets and it gets done and gets done at 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:22.800 a decent quality. And I demonstrated that. So the rest 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:27.760 of the career just flowed almost miraculously and without any planning. 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:30.160 I mean, when The New York Times offered me the 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.880 job is a diplomatic correspondent, I told A Rosenthal, who 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:37.840 was the executive editor of The Times, I said, I've 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:41.640 never even been on a junior high school newspaper, and 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.440 that ultimately, so let's talk a little bit about the Times. 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:48.600 Although there's a lot of career in between Javits's office 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:54.160 and the Times. In between. Um Secretary of Defense McNamara 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:56.440 was that his title at the time, sectors, he was 0:07:56.520 --> 0:08:00.320 a Secretary Defense. Appoint you to a committee. The person 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:04.080 running the committee, if memory serves correctly, dies in a 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:08.239 plane crash and you end up taking over the project 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.600 or my misremembering, it didn't happen that way. My me, 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:17.240 my immediate boss, Assistant Secretary Defense John McNaughton was promoted 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:21.440 from that Assistant Secretary job to be Secretary of the Navy. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.200 A few days later, he and members of his family 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.080 died in a crash. But I was at the time 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:31.880 director of Policy Planning in the Pentagon and another office 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.760 for which I was not qualified. I was thirty years 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:38.640 old and I had that job. But then within weeks 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.800 of having that job, I was also given the task 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:46.280 of doing what became the Pentagon Papers, the history of 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:49.840 US involvement in Vietnam. And we're going to definitely talk 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:53.640 more about Vietnam a little later. You say you weren't qualified, 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:57.319 but you were awarded from the State Department the Distinguished 0:08:57.320 --> 0:09:01.920 Honor Award, which is their highest recognition for the work 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:06.319 you did. So when you say, okay, I went from 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.360 Javits to the Defense Department, and I also got the 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:12.839 highest award there too. So that suggests that perhaps you 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.160 were somewhat qualified, or it suggests that they give away 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:20.000 the awards. Okay. So that's the other side of the argument. 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.360 I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt, 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:24.760 and um, well, I'm gonna have to go to Wikipedia 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:28.440 and rewrite your bio. They give these awards out. How 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.120 do I get one of those? Can I just apply 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:33.240 or I don't think they give him out all that often. 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:36.720 And to have one both from the Department of Defense 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:42.200 and and from the State Department, that's a fairly respectable right. 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:47.600 That's a fairly respectable achievement. So now you essentially oversee 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:52.880 the creation of the Pentagon Papers, which details in tremendous 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:58.560 specificity what happened in Vietnam, what the goals weren't, and 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.120 where it went wrong. This was supposed to be an 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:05.280 internal study, not released to the public. Correct And so 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:08.840 there I believe there were fifteen copies, some of which 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:11.320 were leaked, parts of which were leaked to the New 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:16.480 York Times. That's right, Ellsberg. Daniel Ellsberg leaked almost a 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:19.720 full set of The Times that he didn't include the 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:24.600 four volumes on the Secret Negotiations. You're listening to Masters 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:27.560 in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My special guest today is 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:31.920 Dr leslie Gelb, an expert on foreign affairs and the 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:36.640 projection of power and influence around the world. One of 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:40.200 the things that you've written that I've always found fascinating 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:45.520 is it's not necessarily just military strength, but it's the 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:50.560 underlying economic strength that really has a giant impact on 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:54.840 foreign policy. Let's start discussing that what is the role 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:58.920 of of the fundamental economic power of a country to 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:04.760 influence its foreign policy. Economics is really now central two 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:10.360 power in foreign policy to power in international relations. Throughout 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:15.680 history it was military power, military force that was the 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:19.959 main arbiter of things. Big countries made demands on lesser ones. 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:24.680 If they didn't obey, they got cracked, they got defeated 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:28.600 on the battlefield. Now, isn't the underlying economic strength of 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:31.520 go back to the Romans or the Greeks, or whoever 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:33.920 we want to look to in history, the ability to 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:39.280 field a large, well equipped, well fed, standing army. Isn't 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:42.520 that a function of their underlying economy. The economy, of 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:46.679 course was important in in in sustaining a large and 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:52.760 effective army, but it wasn't a typical instrument of foreign affairs. 0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:57.520 When things came to be settled between tribes or nations, 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:02.000 it was by force. If you look at most international 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:09.199 transactions today, there is very very little force. Historically unprecedented 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:13.920 little force between nations. They used to go out and 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:17.360 fight each other all the time. Uh, it's very rare. 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:22.440 Now you see one nation attack another nation. Almost all 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:28.439 the wars are within nations, within Afghanistan, within Iraq, within Vietnam, 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:32.480 and so forth. That's a huge positive development the amount 0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:39.680 of wars and and battlefield skirmishes between countries. So Russia 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:44.680 and the Ukraine that that's an aberration. Well, Russia isn't 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:51.440 in open conventional warfare. They sent in their special forces 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:57.199 and they built up units of you of Russian speaking Ukrainians, 0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.520 and basically that's how the war is being fought rather 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:04.080 than by main force Russian units. So it was really 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:10.040 they sort of fomented a civil war. Interesting. So, so 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:13.040 back to the economy. Here we are in the early 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.760 decades of the twenty one century. Uh, the United States 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:22.640 remains the largest, most significant economy in the world, but 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:26.920 China is, despite their recent stock market issues and they're 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.920 slow down in their economy, is soon to be the 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:34.800 largest economy in the world. How does that play into 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.640 their ability to project influence around the world. See, China 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:42.920 is a perfect case of what I'm talking about, because 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:49.920 China is the first global power, global great power not 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.480 to be a global military power. China has no real 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:59.920 military punch worldwide. China's military strength is restricted almost entire 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:04.400 elite to its borders and to adjacent ceas. Now they're 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:08.240 building up their air force. They're supposedly adding all these 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.960 different carrier and submarine groups. They're taking a lot of 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.920 their newfound economic wealth and directing some of it to 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.640 the military. What does that meanthing more and more of 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:22.000 it to the military. But it's almost entirely in the 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:26.360 Asia Pacific region. To become a world military power, you 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:30.560 need basis worldwide, and you need the capabilities to move 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:35.400 navies and air units around the world. They don't begin 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.840 to have this. What what does that say to us 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:41.360 about China's aspirations that this doesn't seem to be a 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:45.280 focus of theirs at least at present. Well, that's the 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:49.120 necessary qualifier, at least at present. What they're doing is 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:53.600 what China has done throughout its history, really uh to 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.800 make sure that they were the strongest country on their borders, 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:03.080 and they're shoring that right now. But they in the process, 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:07.480 they are developing a capability to project their military power 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:11.800 further than they ever did before. But there's still nowhere 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:16.520 near it. There a decade or two away from having 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.240 that kind of capability. Now I've seen urgent but just 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:23.320 to finish the point. But China counts around the world, 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:26.520 not because it can apply military force in the Middle 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.640 East or Africa whatever. No one even thinks of China 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:34.280 momentarily in those places, but because of its trade and investments. 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.760 Is there a lesson there for the United States? They? 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:40.560 They you look at how much we spend on our 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:43.360 military depending on which study you look at, it's the 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:48.040 next twelve or fifteen countries combined. Are we hurting ourselves 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:52.440 by having uh an over emphasis on on military spending 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:56.640 versus competitors like China. Yeah, it's not the next ten 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:02.240 or fifteen total equal in the American total defense now 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.640 it's about eight eight or so of the next most 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:11.400 uh still a big number, Yeah, it is. It is 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:15.560 a very big number. And you know, the Chinese military 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:22.280 budget probably is in the neighborhood of a hundred fifty 0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:27.440 billion bucks, and we're still up around five hundred billion. 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:34.120 But it's not just that. It's having experience and being 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:39.680 able to control military technology to make it operational. We've 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:42.400 been in wars, so our military knows how to use 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.720 this stuff. China is much less proficient at it. So 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.160 what does that mean going forward? Is China because what 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:55.000 I'm hearing from you is China is obviously an economic competitor, 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.640 but not really very much of a military threat to 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:03.880 the United States interests. Yes, but China is ensuring that 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:08.080 it controls its borders and the immediate UH water areas. 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.399 And that does mean something because we have allies in 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:18.639 that area, South Korea and so forth, Philippines, We have 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:23.639 treaties with these countries, and they feel the threat coming 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:28.399 from Chinese muscling, Chinese muscling into the islands in the 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:32.640 South China Sea and claiming them as part of Chinese 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:38.000 territory and the like. But you see, as much as 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:41.520 the nations of Asia are turning more and more to 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:47.480 the United States for security protection, they don't want to 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:50.840 go too far. They don't want to anger China because 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.560 China is still the most important factor in that part 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:58.320 of the world when it comes to trade and investment. 0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:01.639 You're listening to mass there was in Business on Bloomberg Radio. 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:05.800 My special guest today is Dr leslie Gelb, author of 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:09.960 many books, winner of numerous awards, including the Pulitzer Prize, 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:15.040 currently President Emeritus on the Council on Foreign Relations. Is 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:20.400 that correct and an expert on all sorts of issues 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:24.240 related to foreign affairs. Let's start with a really broad 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:28.720 question in the segment. Are we entering a new era 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:32.639 of diplomacy for the United States? It's a new era 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:38.159 of foreign policy generally, because problems are becoming more and 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:43.120 more difficult to solve, not just within our country domestically, 0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:48.600 but worldwide, because major powers don't have anywhere near the 0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.919 power they used to have, and we used to be 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.199 able to combine with Europe and get a lot of 0:18:54.240 --> 0:19:00.480 things done. And now the problems, as I explained four, 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.960 are less between nations where you can apply that power 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:11.000 that leverage more within nations, they have their own political problems, 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:14.880 they have their own civil wars, and it's much more 0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:19.399 difficult for the power of the United States or China 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:24.640 or Russia or whatever to influence events within countries rather 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:28.480 than between them. So so you mentioned Europe at one 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:30.800 point in time, I always I thought of Europe as 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:33.640 a great power. You look at the history at least 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:37.960 of of Western civilization, and first it was Spain, and 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:39.760 then it was France, and then it was England, and 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.760 Europe seemed to be the center of the world. That's 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:45.520 not really the case anymore, is it. For hundreds of years, 0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:49.520 Europe was the center of the world, and that's where 0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.639 power was located. And they went out and they in 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:56.800 effect rule the world, conquered all these territories, created colonies 0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.879 and the like, including us here in the United States exactly. 0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:05.240 And now now Europe is a second tier power at best. 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:09.400 It's military punch is far, far less than it has 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:13.640 been historically. Uh. You know, Germany used to be one 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:15.960 of the great powers of the world, Britain and so forth. 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:19.560 But now they're all they're really all second tier. What 0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:23.000 about what about the EU as an economic power. It's 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:27.080 one of the biggest economy is collectively it's one of 0:20:27.080 --> 0:20:29.520 the biggest, But it doesn't do a very good job 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:34.800 of exercising economic power because the damn organization is so 0:20:34.960 --> 0:20:40.919 bureaucratic and it thinks less in terms of using power 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:45.439 to accomplish difficult things and more in terms of just 0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:50.880 getting along without creating problems. Quite quite fascinating. Let let 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:52.960 me shift gears a little bit on you and talk 0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:58.760 about oil. I understand the whole economic thesis that strong 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:03.600 economy equals strong um projection of power. Let me ask 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:07.919 a question this way, is the price of oil driving policy, 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:12.560 or is policy driving the price of oil. Well, in 0:21:12.600 --> 0:21:16.119 the case of the Gulf States, let's say they have 0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:20.040 so much money they don't have to worry about five 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:25.080 extra dollars per barrel, of extra dollars per bowl. They're loaded, 0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:31.800 So their primary concern is foreign policy. So why is 0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:35.120 the price of oil as low as it is. It's 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:38.400 as low it is because they're keeping it that way, 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:42.560 and they're keeping it that way in anticipation of Iran 0:21:43.400 --> 0:21:46.960 joining the oil market again in a major way, and 0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:49.960 they want to make sure that Iran can't put its 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:53.800 hand on as many bucks as the Iranian leaders may 0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:57.840 may hope, so they're keeping it low. They realize that 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.480 Iran is going to have more money and therefore more impact, 0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:03.840 but they want to lessen that blow. And Iran has 0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:05.720 been a little bit of a troublemaker in the Middle 0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:08.919 East to say the least. Yes, Iran has been a 0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:12.960 trouble amerker. But if you ask me, Saudi Arabia has 0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:17.320 caused the United States far more trouble over the last 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:20.560 thirty forty years than Iran as So let's let's focus 0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:22.920 on that. That's fascinating. Let me let me just explain 0:22:22.960 --> 0:22:26.879 that because most Americans just aren't aware who on earth 0:22:27.520 --> 0:22:33.800 funded all these Jahadi's al qaeda isis al Nustra. Whore 0:22:34.000 --> 0:22:37.119 Where did these funds come from? Where did the arms 0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:40.160 they've been fighting with come from? They come mainly from 0:22:40.440 --> 0:22:44.560 Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. They've been financing it, 0:22:45.160 --> 0:22:49.000 They've been creating the problem. Are our big partners there 0:22:49.280 --> 0:22:52.560 from that part of the world, uh for their own 0:22:53.280 --> 0:22:58.679 their own reasons, usually religious reasons, and their their opposition 0:22:58.720 --> 0:23:02.639 to Western values. And you see this most clearly in 0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:08.840 the thousands of madrasas He's are Islamic schools funded by 0:23:08.960 --> 0:23:12.280 the Saudis and other Gulf states around the world, and 0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:18.159 they preach extreme fundamental versions of Islam right and anti 0:23:18.200 --> 0:23:22.280 Americanism and anti American values. So in the last minute, 0:23:22.280 --> 0:23:24.879 we have in the segment why do we think of 0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:28.800 Saudi Arabia as our ally because our government lets them 0:23:28.840 --> 0:23:30.800 get away with it and doesn't make an issue of it. 0:23:31.760 --> 0:23:35.280 But you know, it's a fact that the arms that 0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:40.960 isis used at first came or financed by the Saudis 0:23:40.960 --> 0:23:43.919 and the other Gulf states. You're listening to Masters in 0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:47.439 Business on Bloomberg Radio, my special guest today is Dr 0:23:47.520 --> 0:23:52.159 Leslie Gelb, an expert on foreign policy and foreign affairs 0:23:52.280 --> 0:23:56.000 and the impact of a domestic economy and how it 0:23:56.000 --> 0:23:59.879 affects the country's ability to project power less segment. We 0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:03.520 talked a little bit about UH, this new era of 0:24:03.600 --> 0:24:08.080 diplomacy before before we go back to Iran, let's talk 0:24:08.080 --> 0:24:10.520 a little bit about Cuba, which I think was a 0:24:10.600 --> 0:24:14.600 surprise for a lot of people. No one really expected anything, 0:24:14.840 --> 0:24:18.359 uh from a lame duck president, and yet seems to 0:24:18.359 --> 0:24:22.439 be a lot of diplomatic initiatives that are starting to 0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:25.639 bear fruit. What what are your thoughts on our change 0:24:25.640 --> 0:24:32.400 of status with Cuba. I'm glad we're doing it. Overdue, Yeah, way, way, 0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:35.679 way overdue. And the only thing that prevented it really 0:24:36.240 --> 0:24:40.320 was the power of the Cuban American Foundation, group run 0:24:40.320 --> 0:24:46.679 by Cuban emigres, who really locked on Cuba policy in 0:24:46.720 --> 0:24:50.040 many ways like the American Jewish community locked on Middle 0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:55.160 East policy and on Israel. So they the Cuban American Foundation, 0:24:55.280 --> 0:24:59.920 prevented are doing any kind of opening with Cuba where 0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:02.359 it didn't make any sense. And here for fifty years 0:25:03.080 --> 0:25:06.760 we had economic sanctions against them. We tried to tighten 0:25:06.800 --> 0:25:10.840 the noose around them and every way possible. It doesn't work. 0:25:10.960 --> 0:25:15.000 Economic sanctions can hurt a country, and sure it's hurt 0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:18.600 Cuba a great deal, but it can't bring them to 0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:22.040 their knees. It can't make them capitulate. We face the 0:25:22.040 --> 0:25:25.440 same issue with Russia and Ukraine and we never learned 0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:29.960 the lesson. And when the economic sanctions don't work, people 0:25:30.000 --> 0:25:33.080 start talking about, well maybe we have to go to 0:25:33.119 --> 0:25:36.840 war now. Haven't the economic sanctions worked with I Ran, 0:25:37.040 --> 0:25:42.240 didn't we get them to really dramatically reduce their nuclear 0:25:42.320 --> 0:25:46.080 program or not? What? What's the take on that we 0:25:46.200 --> 0:25:49.439 got them to dramatically reduce it? Which is why I 0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:52.360 think this agreement is a good one. We can come 0:25:52.400 --> 0:25:56.800 back to that we did get them to dramatically reduce 0:25:56.880 --> 0:26:01.159 it UH for ten to fifteen years, unless there's cheating 0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:03.840 and there's a breakout or so forth. So so let's 0:26:03.920 --> 0:26:06.560 let's talk go back to the sanction issue. You have 0:26:06.680 --> 0:26:10.360 a group in America, the number of different Cuban American 0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:15.280 groups who don't want to see relations normalized is the 0:26:15.359 --> 0:26:18.840 reason for that. They have a degree of power and 0:26:18.920 --> 0:26:21.560 a voting block, and once this goes away, their power 0:26:21.600 --> 0:26:24.040 goes away. At what point did they just become a 0:26:24.080 --> 0:26:29.240 self defeating, self sustaining, for no more purpose political group. 0:26:29.280 --> 0:26:31.760 Thanks too long for that to happen. Well here it 0:26:31.800 --> 0:26:35.040 is half a century later. What what what do we 0:26:35.200 --> 0:26:39.480 to make of either of the Cuban American group or 0:26:39.480 --> 0:26:44.080 the Jewish Amerner group affecting these sort of policy negotiations. 0:26:44.440 --> 0:26:51.520 You know, uh In my wife and I were invited 0:26:51.560 --> 0:26:55.280 by del cast Vote to Cuba and we had dinner 0:26:55.280 --> 0:26:57.040 with him one night, the two of us, he and 0:26:57.119 --> 0:27:01.520 his foreign minister or whatever, and and we we were 0:27:01.600 --> 0:27:07.000 talking about what democracy was. And I interrupted him and 0:27:07.040 --> 0:27:09.960 I said, you know, you don't understand that democracy is 0:27:10.400 --> 0:27:16.640 minorities rule. The Jewish American groups of the primary influence 0:27:16.680 --> 0:27:20.480 on Middle East policy, the Greeks on Greek policy, the 0:27:20.520 --> 0:27:27.160 aged on elder elderly. Um. The that's fascinating. That's acting 0:27:27.240 --> 0:27:31.560 gun lobby, the gun hobby controlling guns. You look issued issue. 0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:37.720 Who controls financial legislation, it's Wall Street. And that American 0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:44.040 democracy is is minorities rule. What did he said? You see, 0:27:44.080 --> 0:27:47.360 that's what I'm talking about. You don't have a democracy. Yes, 0:27:47.440 --> 0:27:50.200 I said, what we do because we have the power 0:27:50.560 --> 0:27:53.960 to change the minorities who do rule, and that can't 0:27:53.960 --> 0:27:56.679 be done here in Cuba. You're the minority and you 0:27:56.720 --> 0:28:00.040 can't be changed. He's a minority of one versus versus 0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:04.720 an open That's a fascinating, fascinating insight. What what else 0:28:04.760 --> 0:28:09.960 took place in that conversation with Fidel Castro that was memorable, Well, 0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:12.520 I think almost almost all of it was memorable, but 0:28:13.000 --> 0:28:16.680 the sense that, look, he is a dictator and he's 0:28:16.920 --> 0:28:20.400 done some terrible things, and his brother running the country 0:28:20.640 --> 0:28:23.280 also a dictator. Yes, and they put a lot of 0:28:23.320 --> 0:28:27.560 innocent people away and there's no disregarding that. And they 0:28:27.600 --> 0:28:32.640 did foment revolutions and Latin America. Some people thought those 0:28:32.680 --> 0:28:35.560 revolutions were good, others thought they were terrible. They certainly 0:28:35.920 --> 0:28:39.720 weren't liked by the United States. So I'm not making 0:28:39.720 --> 0:28:45.120 any excuses for Castro, but they they are really afraid 0:28:45.160 --> 0:28:49.120 that the United States was going to conquer them, to 0:28:49.280 --> 0:28:53.440 come attack them, and they had plenty of reason to 0:28:53.520 --> 0:28:57.160 believe that. For Castro was well aware of all the 0:28:57.200 --> 0:29:02.000 attempts that we made on his life. Um. Another meeting 0:29:02.040 --> 0:29:05.000 we had was with the Cuban Chairman of the Joint 0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:09.160 Chiefs of their Joint chiefs Staff, who gave a long 0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:12.640 spiel to my wife and me about how they believe 0:29:12.800 --> 0:29:16.000 we were still going to attack them full scale Americans 0:29:16.000 --> 0:29:20.200 still still to this day. And when he finished, I said, 0:29:20.240 --> 0:29:23.320 I think there is no chance the United States of 0:29:23.320 --> 0:29:26.640 America is going to invade Cuba. And then I gave 0:29:26.720 --> 0:29:31.680 him the reasons why he started to cry. He stood 0:29:31.720 --> 0:29:34.280 up like we being like tears. Yes, and he came 0:29:34.280 --> 0:29:38.840 around the table to hug me. Really, you know, that's fascinating. 0:29:39.040 --> 0:29:42.719 I I don't believe that was an act. I believe 0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:45.960 he really thought the United States was going to invade Cuba. 0:29:46.200 --> 0:29:49.920 That that's absolutely amazing. So we're speaking with Dr leslie Gelb, 0:29:50.000 --> 0:29:53.560 expert on foreign affairs. Let's shift a little bit to Iran. 0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:55.880 I don't get the sense that any of the Mueller's 0:29:56.240 --> 0:29:59.760 are gonna be hugging anyone from the United States anytime. 0:30:00.000 --> 0:30:04.320 Own They won't. Molas are very dangerous guys, really sure 0:30:04.360 --> 0:30:09.520 they are. So who's driving the atomic desires in in Iran? 0:30:09.800 --> 0:30:13.360 I think that the Iranian people from everything we know, 0:30:13.440 --> 0:30:16.600 from all the reporting we have going on in that country, 0:30:16.840 --> 0:30:21.640 Iranian people support a peaceful nuclear program. Do they really 0:30:21.640 --> 0:30:24.800 need that given their vast oil reserves, well they think 0:30:24.840 --> 0:30:28.800 they do. Who we to say they don't. I think 0:30:28.840 --> 0:30:31.680 we could legitimately say, not only do you have vast 0:30:31.760 --> 0:30:34.720 oil reserves, you're in the middle of the desert near 0:30:34.760 --> 0:30:38.040 the equator. If you want to set up solar farms, 0:30:38.040 --> 0:30:40.400 you probably have more energy than you could ever consume 0:30:40.840 --> 0:30:43.320 in a thousand years. Why on Earth would you need 0:30:43.360 --> 0:30:46.760 a nuclear program except to build a bomb. They think 0:30:46.800 --> 0:30:50.040 this is a cheap form of energy. They can They're 0:30:50.040 --> 0:30:52.520 worried about being able to sell oil in the future 0:30:52.560 --> 0:30:57.760 as energy um sources change. That's a fifty year concerned. 0:30:58.280 --> 0:31:02.280 But they are concerned about it. Again, everything we know 0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:06.920 from the reporting countrywide is that there is considerable support 0:31:07.600 --> 0:31:13.080 for having these nuclear peaceful programs. Uh. Not that the 0:31:13.520 --> 0:31:16.600 people are calling for Iran to have nuclear weapon. There's 0:31:16.600 --> 0:31:20.360 no evidence of that at all. None, And even the Ayatollah, 0:31:21.240 --> 0:31:24.080 who we don't like it. It really is a troublemaker, 0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:28.160 keeps repeating they don't want to build a bomb. So 0:31:28.520 --> 0:31:30.480 what do we think. I don't believe them, by the way, 0:31:31.680 --> 0:31:35.360 I don't think a lot of people believe that claim. 0:31:35.400 --> 0:31:39.400 What do we think the odds of this treaty actually 0:31:39.440 --> 0:31:43.560 getting past doesn't require approval from the Senate. All they 0:31:43.560 --> 0:31:45.680 could do is stop it. Do we think that this 0:31:45.760 --> 0:31:50.440 is actually going to be put into effect, Chuck Schumer notwithstanding, Yeah, 0:31:50.480 --> 0:31:56.160 I think that before Schumer announced his opposition, that they 0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:59.840 did a vote count in the Senate and they came 0:31:59.880 --> 0:32:04.880 to the conclusion that a presidential veto two bring the 0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:10.080 treaty into force would be sustained. So Schumer's vote was 0:32:10.120 --> 0:32:13.400 not going to So there was a little political horse trading, 0:32:13.440 --> 0:32:15.440 and well, I don't know if there was horse trading, 0:32:15.480 --> 0:32:20.360 but Schumer could go ahead and make his announcement, which 0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:25.400 I think wasn't based on much substance, uh, without fearing 0:32:25.480 --> 0:32:27.760 that he was going to kill the treaty off. And 0:32:27.760 --> 0:32:31.840 and he's appealing to one of those minorities, the Jewish 0:32:31.880 --> 0:32:35.560 American lobby that's been very vocal about this deal. They've 0:32:35.600 --> 0:32:38.120 made it an enormous issue, and it's going to hurt 0:32:39.040 --> 0:32:42.160 Israel's standing here in the United States, really, including with 0:32:42.280 --> 0:32:45.800 people who oppose the agreement. It will because they've gone 0:32:45.800 --> 0:32:51.480 too far in interfering in American politics. Benjamin net and 0:32:51.520 --> 0:32:54.240 Yahoo speaking in the UN speaking to the on the 0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:57.719 floor of the Senate. You think that boomerang's back against 0:32:57.840 --> 0:33:01.520 Eventually it will hurt. Yes. So we talked briefly before 0:33:01.560 --> 0:33:06.160 about oil, and let me pose a different foreign affairs question. 0:33:06.720 --> 0:33:09.240 You know, the United States has been a huge importer 0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:12.760 of oil for a long time, and now between what 0:33:12.800 --> 0:33:17.040 we've found in the Gulf and fracking, and we're rapidly 0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:22.080 approaching the day where the US becomes energy independent. And 0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:26.600 I'm not talking a century or many many decades. Sometime 0:33:26.640 --> 0:33:29.680 in the next cold five to ten years, we're going 0:33:29.720 --> 0:33:33.920 to become a net exporter of energy. When that happens, 0:33:34.200 --> 0:33:38.160 what does that do to our interests in the Middle East? 0:33:39.040 --> 0:33:41.520 I hope, but lessons are interested in the Middle East 0:33:42.160 --> 0:33:44.440 because I don't, as you could tell from other things 0:33:44.520 --> 0:33:50.160 I've just said, place much hope or reliance on our 0:33:50.320 --> 0:33:55.200 Gulf state allies. They've done some great harm, and I 0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:57.880 think we've you. When you say Gulf state allies, you 0:33:57.920 --> 0:34:01.959 mean Saudi Arabia, Israel, and I don't mean Israel, just 0:34:02.000 --> 0:34:07.160 Saudi Arabidi Arabia, Guitar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and the like, 0:34:07.240 --> 0:34:10.280 the people who have funded these jihadis all over the world. 0:34:10.520 --> 0:34:14.000 Where do you think the Taliban got their arms and 0:34:14.040 --> 0:34:16.719 money from they got it from heaven. They didn't get 0:34:16.719 --> 0:34:20.200 it from heaven. So with friends like these, who needs enemies? Indeed, 0:34:21.000 --> 0:34:23.919 So if in the last thirty seconds we have if 0:34:23.920 --> 0:34:27.720 people want to find your writings, where's the best place 0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:31.120 for them to to see your your views in your perspectives? 0:34:31.120 --> 0:34:34.600 In two places. One is the Daily Beast. I've written 0:34:34.640 --> 0:34:38.439 a lot for them over the last eight or nine 0:34:38.520 --> 0:34:43.279 years or so. And in the National Interest magazine Fantastic, 0:34:43.320 --> 0:34:47.240 we've been speaking with Dr Leslie Gelb discussing foreign policy. 0:34:47.680 --> 0:34:50.359 If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and check out 0:34:50.760 --> 0:34:53.239 the podcast extras where we let the tape role and 0:34:53.280 --> 0:34:57.920 we continue the conversation. Uh. Check out my daily column 0:34:58.000 --> 0:35:01.000 at Bloomberg View dot com or follow me on Twitter 0:35:01.560 --> 0:35:05.320 at Ridhults. I'm Barry Ridhults. You've been listening to Masters 0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:09.840 in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the podcast extras, 0:35:09.960 --> 0:35:12.600 Dr Galb or Less. As you've asked me, Nicole, you 0:35:12.719 --> 0:35:14.720 thank you so much for doing this. This is really 0:35:15.480 --> 0:35:18.560 absolutely fascinating to so many things I want to go over. 0:35:18.840 --> 0:35:21.759 We haven't even talked about what's happening with China. And 0:35:21.800 --> 0:35:24.839 their currency. We'll we'll get to that in a little bit. 0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:28.800 Let's go back to the Pentagon Papers, which we really 0:35:28.880 --> 0:35:34.040 just quickly touched on. Describe what that process was like 0:35:34.800 --> 0:35:38.440 creating that, what sort of hell broke loose when the 0:35:38.480 --> 0:35:41.000 Times got their hands on it, and what it meant 0:35:41.000 --> 0:35:45.840 for the Supreme Court to issue their no prior restraint decisions, 0:35:45.840 --> 0:35:49.560 if if if I'm remembering all those things, uh correctly. So, 0:35:49.560 --> 0:35:53.319 so let's start with creating the Pentagon Papers. What was 0:35:53.400 --> 0:35:57.880 that process like? Well, it's not like you hear about 0:35:57.920 --> 0:36:03.840 it because McNamara at first started the project to answer 0:36:03.960 --> 0:36:07.960 one questions that he and a few other people had 0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:13.239 set down about ten of those questions were historical and 0:36:13.280 --> 0:36:17.719 the others were about the pacification program, about the political 0:36:17.800 --> 0:36:20.399 process and Saigon and could at work and so forth. 0:36:20.600 --> 0:36:23.160 There were a hundred questions that one of his military 0:36:23.200 --> 0:36:27.000 aids wrote out by hand. Really yeah, and we were 0:36:27.080 --> 0:36:30.520 to answer them. Then I put together a small group 0:36:31.640 --> 0:36:35.000 and basically everyone agreed that we would give the same 0:36:35.239 --> 0:36:39.480 kind of bologny, superficial answers to these questions if we 0:36:39.600 --> 0:36:42.799 just sat down to to write them and to get 0:36:42.880 --> 0:36:46.160 some perspective on it. We ought to look at the 0:36:46.280 --> 0:36:49.680 history of our involvement, sent a memo into McMurray said, 0:36:49.719 --> 0:36:52.160 go do it. Let the chips for where they made. 0:36:53.800 --> 0:36:57.520 So we started to do these monographs, and basically the monographs, 0:36:57.520 --> 0:37:01.840 which very few people have read, are sort of straight 0:37:01.920 --> 0:37:06.040 recounting of the issue. There's one on pacification that sort 0:37:06.040 --> 0:37:11.160 of tells you, document by document, summarizing them what the 0:37:11.280 --> 0:37:15.040 history of how we handled pacification was, or why we 0:37:15.120 --> 0:37:18.040 made the decision to send in the Marines and March 0:37:18.920 --> 0:37:23.840 and so forth. And the only sort of analytical parts 0:37:23.840 --> 0:37:30.279 of the Pentagon papers were the brief summary statements at 0:37:30.320 --> 0:37:36.200 the beginning of each monograph, which I took the creditor 0:37:36.320 --> 0:37:39.640 blamed for in my transmission document. And I did so 0:37:39.920 --> 0:37:43.600 because most of our authors were military and they didn't 0:37:43.640 --> 0:37:48.360 want to get stuck with having an opinion on this 0:37:48.480 --> 0:37:53.319 and that to their superiors. So I took responsibility for 0:37:53.360 --> 0:37:57.920 writing all those analytical statements, which really weren't very analytical 0:37:58.520 --> 0:38:02.640 or very presumped she was they put more or less straightforward. 0:38:02.880 --> 0:38:07.480 So so within that, within the research and creation of 0:38:07.520 --> 0:38:11.440 depending on papers, the question that I mean. I was 0:38:11.480 --> 0:38:14.040 born in sixty one the Vietnam War as a kid 0:38:14.120 --> 0:38:17.279 was always a background there. And the question that to 0:38:17.360 --> 0:38:20.279 this day I still can't answer is, so, why do 0:38:20.320 --> 0:38:22.400 we really go in there? What? What was the point? 0:38:22.520 --> 0:38:26.000 That was the key question because it applies today too. Look, 0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:29.399 Ellsberg created the impression that we got in because our 0:38:29.440 --> 0:38:33.520 government lied to the American people about the stakes and 0:38:33.560 --> 0:38:37.120 what was involved and why it was important. But that's 0:38:37.160 --> 0:38:43.239 just false. It's plain wrong, including Ellsberg himself. Ellsberg himself 0:38:43.400 --> 0:38:46.719 was a big supporter of the war through a good 0:38:46.800 --> 0:38:49.600 chunk of the sixties. He joined the Marines, he went 0:38:49.640 --> 0:38:53.080 over there, and he fought. Uh. The reason we got 0:38:53.120 --> 0:38:57.240 involved in Vietnam, and it's critical that we understand it 0:38:57.400 --> 0:39:02.800 for what we get into trouble with today. The reason 0:39:02.880 --> 0:39:05.959 we got involved is we believed our way into the war. 0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:11.479 We saw Indo China as the cockpit of the war 0:39:11.600 --> 0:39:17.719 between Soviet Union, Chinese Communism against the United States of America. 0:39:18.360 --> 0:39:21.360 When you say we believed our way in, yes, we 0:39:21.480 --> 0:39:24.239 thought the biggest threat to the United States was from 0:39:24.239 --> 0:39:29.959 the from the Chinese Soviet Alliance and from World Communism. 0:39:30.000 --> 0:39:33.880 And just as we saw Berlin as the major focal 0:39:33.920 --> 0:39:36.880 point for this in Europe, we saw Indo China as 0:39:36.920 --> 0:39:41.880 the make major focal point in Asia, and people believe 0:39:42.000 --> 0:39:45.120 we had to stop. I hardly knew anybody in the 0:39:45.160 --> 0:39:49.440 foreign policy profession who differed with it, including Dan Ellsberg, 0:39:49.640 --> 0:39:53.919 including my buddy David Halperstan. His nineteen sixty four book 0:39:54.280 --> 0:39:57.920 The Making of a Quagmire ends with a chapter that 0:39:58.080 --> 0:40:02.800 is the best argument for the domino theory I've ever read. Really, Yeah, 0:40:02.800 --> 0:40:05.479 so we believed our way into the war. But wait, 0:40:05.560 --> 0:40:09.279 so he argues for the domino theory, meaning that if 0:40:09.280 --> 0:40:12.200 we don't stop them here, it'll be country after country 0:40:12.239 --> 0:40:14.880 until it's at our doorstep. And yet the book is 0:40:14.920 --> 0:40:19.040 about in ninety four. That's pretty early to say, hey, 0:40:19.120 --> 0:40:21.920 Vietnam is going to be a quagmire and and for 0:40:21.960 --> 0:40:25.239 the next decade it was. Indeed it was, and how 0:40:25.280 --> 0:40:29.080 important it was to win that David's views changed over time, 0:40:29.200 --> 0:40:32.960 David Albert stamps Uh has did mine. I was a 0:40:33.000 --> 0:40:36.360 supporter of the war. I didn't know anything about Vietnam, 0:40:36.440 --> 0:40:38.360 but to me, it was the crunch point in the 0:40:38.360 --> 0:40:42.800 battle against communism, and it took a long time for 0:40:42.840 --> 0:40:45.239 me to evolve. It took a very long time for 0:40:45.400 --> 0:40:50.280 my foreign policy profession to evolve because we believed in it. 0:40:50.480 --> 0:40:54.000 The same thing happened with how we fight Afghanistan or 0:40:54.000 --> 0:40:57.239 how we fight Iraq. We believe our way into these 0:40:57.280 --> 0:41:03.360 wars because we make these decisions without knowing about the 0:41:03.440 --> 0:41:07.960 countries were getting involved in. You know, on Vietnam, I 0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:10.840 had read one book. I wrote a good many of 0:41:10.840 --> 0:41:13.520 the memos of the Secretary Defense to the President of 0:41:13.520 --> 0:41:16.200 the United States when I was Director of Policy Planning 0:41:16.239 --> 0:41:19.560 in the Pentagon. And I had read one book on Vietnam, 0:41:19.640 --> 0:41:22.960 Bernard Falls the Two Vietnams, and that was more than 0:41:23.000 --> 0:41:25.640 most people they had read. We have no knowledge of 0:41:25.640 --> 0:41:29.200 the place. The same applied to Afghanistan. The same applied 0:41:29.200 --> 0:41:31.480 to Iraq. All of a sudden, we throw in the 0:41:31.560 --> 0:41:39.879 troops as if force is going to solve centuries of culture, politics, 0:41:40.400 --> 0:41:45.120 and internal problems, and it never does. So, so let's 0:41:45.320 --> 0:41:47.160 I want to come back to Iraq in a minute. 0:41:47.239 --> 0:41:53.279 Let's let's stay with Vietnam for a second. So if 0:41:53.320 --> 0:41:57.239 the theory is that we're containing communism and therefore we 0:41:57.280 --> 0:42:00.400 have to project power all around the world to prevent 0:42:00.560 --> 0:42:03.920 the domino theory, doesn't that say we really don't have 0:42:03.960 --> 0:42:07.600 a belief, a strong belief in our own system of 0:42:07.719 --> 0:42:12.440 capitalism and free markets and open trade isn't because that's 0:42:12.480 --> 0:42:17.800 how I always I am astonished at the stop communism argument. Well, 0:42:17.840 --> 0:42:22.080 if our system is so vastly superior, and I think 0:42:22.160 --> 0:42:28.160 history has shown that it is, why can't we allow 0:42:28.360 --> 0:42:32.839 the system itself to support itself. Why can't the benefits 0:42:32.960 --> 0:42:37.840 of free markets stand on their own without military invention? 0:42:38.320 --> 0:42:43.560 Interventions all around the world creating this very very different 0:42:43.719 --> 0:42:48.480 sort of battle. It's an economic battle, not a military battle. 0:42:48.800 --> 0:42:50.879 Or is that the wrong way to look at this? Well, 0:42:50.920 --> 0:42:53.920 it depends on the country. In the case of Vietnam, 0:42:54.000 --> 0:42:59.160 it was nationalism that we were fighting. That was the 0:42:59.239 --> 0:43:02.640 root cause of you know, I was very close to 0:43:03.200 --> 0:43:07.719 an army officer went out and commanded an air cavalry 0:43:07.760 --> 0:43:11.800 battalion in one of the main battles that was fought 0:43:11.800 --> 0:43:15.280 in the central highlands of Vietnam. When you say air cavalry, 0:43:15.680 --> 0:43:21.480 I think of apocalypse now, helicopters round troops. And he 0:43:21.600 --> 0:43:23.880 was the commander of a battalion who was a lieutenant 0:43:23.920 --> 0:43:27.120 colonel at the time, and he wrote me a note 0:43:27.160 --> 0:43:30.680 I was working for Javits at the time, Roman notes, 0:43:30.760 --> 0:43:35.960 saying we we just had first major battle with North 0:43:36.040 --> 0:43:40.759 Vietnamese forces in the central Highlands of South Vietnam. And 0:43:40.800 --> 0:43:44.360 I can't tell you how proud I was of of 0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:47.719 my troops, how well they fought, with such skill and 0:43:47.800 --> 0:43:52.480 such courage. There was only one problem. The North Vietnamese 0:43:52.760 --> 0:43:56.840 fought better. And there are only two explanations for this. 0:43:57.760 --> 0:44:00.680 One as they were on dope, and the other is 0:44:00.760 --> 0:44:04.640 they were on nationalism. And if they were on nationalism, 0:44:04.840 --> 0:44:08.160 boy are we going to have trouble. They're defending their 0:44:08.200 --> 0:44:11.560 own home country and there's an advantage to that. And 0:44:11.560 --> 0:44:14.840 Ho Chi Man was regarded by many Vietnamese as the 0:44:14.880 --> 0:44:19.160 father of Vietnamese nationalism. Uh you know, I don't like 0:44:19.640 --> 0:44:23.479 his communist system or anything like that, but he had 0:44:23.520 --> 0:44:27.880 the monopoly of nationalism not only in the North but 0:44:27.960 --> 0:44:31.680 in the south with the Vietnamese VIETNAMIN forces who were 0:44:31.719 --> 0:44:35.839 also backing him. And when that's what you have going 0:44:36.000 --> 0:44:39.120 for you, it's hard to deal with it. Look at 0:44:39.840 --> 0:44:44.759 at Syria today, you have these fanatics fighting and the 0:44:44.760 --> 0:44:50.160 people we trained for years in Iraq and armed with 0:44:50.239 --> 0:44:54.920 the best of armaments. As soon as the ISIS attacked them, 0:44:55.000 --> 0:44:57.840 they dropped their arms, they took their uniforms, off and 0:44:57.920 --> 0:45:01.800 ran away. So so let's supply the lessons of Vietnam 0:45:01.920 --> 0:45:07.160 to Iraq. First question is the same question as Vietnam. 0:45:07.280 --> 0:45:11.000 Why do we go into Iraq? Nobody really believes the 0:45:11.000 --> 0:45:14.919 weapons of mass destruction? That was well, I wouldn't say that. 0:45:14.920 --> 0:45:18.520 That's so, you know, I was. I was very friendly 0:45:19.080 --> 0:45:21.600 with George Tennant, who was the director of the CIA 0:45:21.680 --> 0:45:25.319 at the time, and I asked them outright at the time, Uh, 0:45:25.520 --> 0:45:28.400 do we have a smoking gun on the weapons of 0:45:28.440 --> 0:45:31.400 mass destruction? And he said, no, we don't have a 0:45:31.440 --> 0:45:35.000 smoking gun, but all of us very much believed that 0:45:35.080 --> 0:45:39.200 they do have these weapons of mass destruction programs. Believed 0:45:39.200 --> 0:45:41.279 our way into another war is that is that we 0:45:41.320 --> 0:45:46.520 just believe it because here Saddam had attacked Iran. We 0:45:46.560 --> 0:45:48.880 didn't like Iran, but they attacked them, and it was 0:45:48.920 --> 0:45:53.760 a seven year war, and they used chemical weapons against Iran. 0:45:53.920 --> 0:45:57.640 They've been using chemical weapons though for a long long time. Well, 0:45:57.760 --> 0:46:00.319 they did have a record of it. They also use 0:46:00.440 --> 0:46:04.960 chemical weapons against their own Kurdish people. And they had 0:46:05.040 --> 0:46:07.799 just invaded Kuwait and we had to fight to kick 0:46:07.880 --> 0:46:14.320 him out of Kuwait. George W. George H. Wright, so 0:46:14.480 --> 0:46:17.080 we knew he was hostile. We knew he was aggressive, right, 0:46:17.280 --> 0:46:21.920 and there was genuine concern that he had these weapons 0:46:21.920 --> 0:46:26.319 of mass destruction? Was their proof? No, but there was 0:46:26.520 --> 0:46:32.560 enough evidence floating around in combination with his behavior over 0:46:32.600 --> 0:46:36.239 the previous ten years plus to make people feel you 0:46:36.320 --> 0:46:40.160 had to go after him. Now, they didn't take the 0:46:40.200 --> 0:46:44.360 next step which they must must take in order to 0:46:44.360 --> 0:46:46.600 have a rational policy, and saying, then, what are we 0:46:46.640 --> 0:46:49.439 going to do? What are we going to conduct this war? 0:46:50.239 --> 0:46:52.960 Nobody doubts for a second that the United States military 0:46:53.000 --> 0:46:57.160 isn't gonna steamroll over the National Guard. But after that, 0:46:57.840 --> 0:47:00.759 and now, the current thesis that I keep hearing is 0:47:01.400 --> 0:47:07.800 ISIS is essentially the reconstituted uh Saddam troops and weaponry 0:47:07.960 --> 0:47:10.680 that laid low for a few We don't even know that, 0:47:11.000 --> 0:47:15.319 we know that some of Saddam's officers are involved with them, 0:47:15.360 --> 0:47:17.960 but that these are you know, Sunnis who escaped from 0:47:17.960 --> 0:47:22.200 Iraq and are now Syrians fighting for ISIS. I think 0:47:22.239 --> 0:47:26.840 that's exaggerated. So so this brings us back to the 0:47:26.880 --> 0:47:31.319 original question. September eleven happens in in two thousand and one, 0:47:31.880 --> 0:47:36.120 we go after Afghanistan, which is where these attacks um come. 0:47:36.200 --> 0:47:38.680 From By the way, you mentioned our friends, the Saudis 0:47:39.320 --> 0:47:43.920 funded a lot of the uh not only the Taliban, 0:47:43.960 --> 0:47:48.200 but a lot of the hijackers themselves were Saudies, so 0:47:48.200 --> 0:47:51.399 so they were very much involved. So we go into 0:47:51.440 --> 0:47:55.799 Afghanistan and then somehow not to by two thousand and 0:47:55.880 --> 0:48:00.960 three we tax some some how we change and shift 0:48:01.000 --> 0:48:05.600 our focus to Iraq. It was was that a prudent 0:48:06.560 --> 0:48:11.359 either foreign policy or military response to where we were 0:48:11.360 --> 0:48:14.600 at the time. It was dumb, and I endorsed it 0:48:14.640 --> 0:48:17.440 at the time. So you you you indorsed it, but 0:48:17.480 --> 0:48:20.160 now you're saying that was after three months, and I 0:48:20.200 --> 0:48:24.719 saw it. That's the fastest reversal of everybody was. It 0:48:24.800 --> 0:48:27.600 was fast. But I was for it initially, and when 0:48:27.640 --> 0:48:30.000 it was clear they didn't have the weapons of mass destruction, 0:48:30.400 --> 0:48:32.600 I opposed it. And on top of it, I saw 0:48:32.640 --> 0:48:34.799 we had no idea what we were doing. There been 0:48:34.840 --> 0:48:38.000 no plan for fighting the war. That that's so so 0:48:38.080 --> 0:48:41.360 it seems, you know, it's it's funny. There's a joke 0:48:41.480 --> 0:48:47.000 about people in finance and and it it's essentially says 0:48:47.600 --> 0:48:53.200 um no tour people in finance or notorious for refusing 0:48:53.239 --> 0:48:57.680 to learn from experience in history, But I it sounds 0:48:57.719 --> 0:49:02.400 like finance people don't really hold candle to military people, 0:49:02.520 --> 0:49:06.799 nothing like foreign policy people and making mistakes, the same 0:49:06.800 --> 0:49:10.920 mistakes over and again, which is why over time I 0:49:11.040 --> 0:49:16.200 developed the philosophy that guides me and thinking about foreign affairs, 0:49:16.239 --> 0:49:20.000 that you're going to make the mistakes, they're inevitable, podcasts 0:49:20.040 --> 0:49:24.160 smart you want because we're involved in various parts of 0:49:24.200 --> 0:49:27.839 the world where our knowledge is slight and where our 0:49:27.920 --> 0:49:31.799 power doesn't add up to our desires, and we're going 0:49:31.800 --> 0:49:34.440 to make mistakes. And the most important thing you can 0:49:34.480 --> 0:49:38.080 do is keep your mind open to the possibility that 0:49:38.120 --> 0:49:40.839 you did make a mistake, so that you can see 0:49:40.840 --> 0:49:45.719 it and fix it and not caused the blunders and 0:49:45.800 --> 0:49:50.279 the suffering that we do when we persist in our mistakes. So, 0:49:50.480 --> 0:49:53.680 speaking of persisting in mistakes, let me ask you a question, 0:49:54.239 --> 0:49:58.000 which was worse the errors in Vietnam or the errors 0:49:58.000 --> 0:50:05.560 in Iraq? Um? I think Vietnam really was. You know, 0:50:05.680 --> 0:50:09.920 we we lost over fifty thousand men killed ten times 0:50:09.920 --> 0:50:12.400 what we lost in Iraq. And people forget, but we 0:50:12.480 --> 0:50:17.680 had five hundred and fifty thousand troops in Vietnam and 0:50:18.120 --> 0:50:21.680 nearly old draftees not a whole lot of voluntary conscripts. 0:50:22.239 --> 0:50:26.320 That's a very different war than sending a hundred thousand 0:50:26.360 --> 0:50:30.400 people who were volunteers to another contra. Absolutely, and the 0:50:30.520 --> 0:50:35.239 ramifications domestically to the Vietnam War looks like it was very, 0:50:35.360 --> 0:50:40.480 very significant. Iraq has created some pushback, but nothing like 0:50:40.520 --> 0:50:43.759 what we saw in the nineteen sixties. I think that's right. 0:50:43.880 --> 0:50:48.280 Sixties really was a revolution inside the United States, and frankly, 0:50:48.800 --> 0:50:52.400 I think it caused a lot of people, two good people, 0:50:52.520 --> 0:50:55.520 to stay away from politics. I think the quality of 0:50:55.560 --> 0:50:59.440 people who run for office today hold office today are 0:50:59.440 --> 0:51:03.080 as good as were when I was a young man 0:51:03.160 --> 0:51:06.560 in Washington. You know, it's funny. Let's let's shift gears 0:51:06.880 --> 0:51:09.759 and talk about politics a little bit. So. I grew 0:51:09.840 --> 0:51:13.760 up in Nassau County out in Long Island, very Republican area, 0:51:14.360 --> 0:51:18.719 and Jacob Javits was my senator. And whenever I try 0:51:18.760 --> 0:51:21.600 and describe and and people on the left and right, 0:51:21.680 --> 0:51:24.880 none of my friends believe me. But it's absolutely true. 0:51:25.320 --> 0:51:29.279 I described myself as a Jacob Javits Republican all right, 0:51:29.400 --> 0:51:33.960 And four quick bullet points, low taxes, balance budgets, no 0:51:34.120 --> 0:51:37.640 overseas adventures, and keep the government out of people's bedrooms. 0:51:37.719 --> 0:51:41.000 It's pretty pretty fair statement those four uhs, because he 0:51:41.040 --> 0:51:44.440 actually was pretty much of a hawk on foreign policy. 0:51:44.760 --> 0:51:48.040 He was a big supporter of the Vietnam War. Well, 0:51:48.120 --> 0:51:50.560 when I got to when I learned who he was, 0:51:50.960 --> 0:51:55.319 he had reversed himself and following the Vietnam War, I 0:51:55.360 --> 0:51:59.080 recall him saying things like, look, if we're gonna project powerful, 0:51:59.080 --> 0:52:01.560 gonna go to war overs ease, it can't be for 0:52:01.600 --> 0:52:04.279 some abstract theory. It has to be to protect uh, 0:52:04.320 --> 0:52:07.600 the United States and not so I didn't. I was 0:52:07.640 --> 0:52:09.720 too young to know him when he was a hawk. 0:52:10.200 --> 0:52:15.000 I knew him as no overseas misadventures. Yeah, he became 0:52:15.040 --> 0:52:18.719 the author of the of the law that sort of 0:52:18.800 --> 0:52:24.440 gave Congress a chance to say no to momentary involvement 0:52:24.480 --> 0:52:27.560 after thirty days. That that's how I know him, as 0:52:27.560 --> 0:52:29.960 opposed to maybe how he began when I when I 0:52:30.040 --> 0:52:34.080 was a uch much younger child. But the funny thing 0:52:34.160 --> 0:52:41.360 about that corner of politics, that on the spectrum a 0:52:41.400 --> 0:52:47.080 fiscally conservative, socially progressive, call its center right political position. 0:52:48.120 --> 0:52:50.759 You can't find that amongst the Republicans anymore. The whole 0:52:50.800 --> 0:52:55.240 spectrum has shifted so much that what was once a 0:52:55.280 --> 0:52:58.839 center right possession position now seems like it's a left 0:52:58.840 --> 0:53:02.719 wing position. Uh so, what does that say? How much 0:53:02.719 --> 0:53:06.799 of that traces to the reaction the pushback to to 0:53:07.040 --> 0:53:14.160 Vietnam socially and just the parties becoming more extreme and 0:53:14.200 --> 0:53:18.800 from my perspective formally thinking I'm center right and suddenly 0:53:18.840 --> 0:53:21.719 finding myself center left. To me, it looks like the 0:53:22.800 --> 0:53:25.680 right wing has gotten the left wing has gotten some 0:53:25.760 --> 0:53:29.120 extreme elements, but the right wing looks like it's really 0:53:29.239 --> 0:53:34.239 tacked to an extreme um political position, some of which 0:53:34.440 --> 0:53:40.319 is the Reagan Coalition starting to fracture and people um 0:53:40.360 --> 0:53:45.080 really tacking to that far right base to to get 0:53:45.200 --> 0:53:47.399 we see it in the primary part. By the way, 0:53:47.400 --> 0:53:50.400 that's the most you're gonna hear me say about anything 0:53:50.480 --> 0:53:53.759 this whole interview. But I'm really curious as to your 0:53:53.840 --> 0:53:56.839 view on how the this political spectrum in the United 0:53:56.840 --> 0:54:00.239 States has shifted. We always had nuts on the left 0:54:00.280 --> 0:54:04.520 in the right. When I worked for for Javits, they 0:54:04.560 --> 0:54:08.080 were there, to be sure, but they were kind of marginals. 0:54:08.120 --> 0:54:11.319 The difference not that they were marginalized, it's that they 0:54:11.320 --> 0:54:16.640 were what I would call five or so national interest 0:54:16.719 --> 0:54:21.120 senators of both parties who if an issue were really important, 0:54:21.200 --> 0:54:24.680 would put politics aside and try to get something done. 0:54:25.360 --> 0:54:27.839 So if it was critical and you needed a law 0:54:27.920 --> 0:54:30.919 pass that in order to solve a problem, they would 0:54:30.960 --> 0:54:33.359 get together and do it. So what happened to that 0:54:33.880 --> 0:54:38.360 it disappeared. You see, they all left party first, so Bradley, 0:54:38.480 --> 0:54:45.640 Sam Nun etcetera, etcetera, youth, centrist, moderate, they all left 0:54:45.680 --> 0:54:49.600 the place because they got totally frustrated with American politics. 0:54:49.840 --> 0:54:52.239 And it began at the time of the Vietnam War. 0:54:53.000 --> 0:54:56.440 The people who unfortunately didn't get frustrated with the extremists, 0:54:56.480 --> 0:55:00.600 particularly on the right. Uh, they decided that this was 0:55:00.680 --> 0:55:04.400 their great opportunity to go in and control politics. And 0:55:04.440 --> 0:55:10.320 they've been fairly successful. Yeah, including in defeating moderate conservatives. 0:55:11.480 --> 0:55:15.879 Which is astonishing to think that that battle between the 0:55:15.960 --> 0:55:19.520 right and the far right is being won by the 0:55:19.520 --> 0:55:24.240 far right. That's not usually it's always been the center 0:55:24.280 --> 0:55:26.600 holds and and that's where the power lays, but that 0:55:26.680 --> 0:55:29.360 seems to be changing. They want it hands down, except 0:55:29.400 --> 0:55:34.239 for presidential nominees. Reagan being the exception people bring up, 0:55:34.280 --> 0:55:36.839 and in fact, Reagan was not a crazy right wing 0:55:36.880 --> 0:55:41.520 president at all. He was a conservative president. The argument 0:55:41.600 --> 0:55:44.600 is not by any means. The argument is that Reagan 0:55:44.640 --> 0:55:48.360 couldn't get nominated today. I don't think he could. That's 0:55:48.400 --> 0:55:54.560 an astonishing, that's an astonishing He raised repeatedly. Well, let's 0:55:54.320 --> 0:55:57.279 he first, he had a huge tax cut. He took 0:55:57.360 --> 0:56:00.239 that top rate way down. He got rid of all 0:56:00.280 --> 0:56:04.000 those crazy you know, tax shelters and real estate shelters 0:56:04.000 --> 0:56:06.919 and all those things, which is why some guy named 0:56:06.960 --> 0:56:09.359 Donald Trump was not happy with him way back when 0:56:10.000 --> 0:56:16.600 UM but slowly raised taxes to balance the budget. You know, 0:56:16.680 --> 0:56:20.320 today you have the pledge UM, you have Grover Norquest. 0:56:20.360 --> 0:56:25.200 You so that center right moderate or or even just 0:56:25.440 --> 0:56:28.799 ordinary conservative, they don't seem to really be finding a 0:56:28.920 --> 0:56:35.320 voice UM in politics today, interestingly divided on foreign policy 0:56:35.400 --> 0:56:40.919 national security, where you have the Tea Party guys like 0:56:41.560 --> 0:56:46.759 the Polls who tend to be touch isolationists very much. 0:56:46.920 --> 0:56:51.520 In fact, he isis caused Rand Paul to back off 0:56:51.600 --> 0:56:55.279 of that UM. But they're very much isolationists. And I 0:56:55.800 --> 0:56:58.680 respect the hey, we're spending way too much on the 0:56:58.719 --> 0:57:03.799 military argument from on Paul Um. Rand Paul seems to 0:57:03.880 --> 0:57:06.360 have less of a commitment to that than his father 0:57:06.480 --> 0:57:10.680 did less because he's running for president and he thinks 0:57:10.680 --> 0:57:13.040 he's got to modify it for that. I think for 0:57:13.080 --> 0:57:16.640 that reason is Dad ran for president and never changed anything. 0:57:16.960 --> 0:57:20.280 Dad was more of a true believer. So so let's 0:57:20.280 --> 0:57:25.000 see he's to say the least. So so let's come 0:57:25.080 --> 0:57:28.800 back to um, the Middle East policy. We we talked 0:57:28.800 --> 0:57:33.600 about Iraq, Um, what's going to happen with our relations 0:57:33.640 --> 0:57:39.680 going forward with Israel? Um? Are they going to be 0:57:39.760 --> 0:57:42.400 chasened by their overreaches there? Are they going to have 0:57:42.480 --> 0:57:46.040 a possible change of leadership? What what happens? There's no 0:57:46.120 --> 0:57:51.520 chance of a change in leadership position inside Israel, and 0:57:51.600 --> 0:57:56.800 there is overwhelming opposition within Israel through this agreement with Iran, 0:57:57.920 --> 0:58:03.320 and none of that is going to change. Obama has 0:58:03.400 --> 0:58:09.200 tried to compensate by offering Israel some arms, some high 0:58:09.240 --> 0:58:13.040 tech arms that he had previously denied them, but that's 0:58:13.080 --> 0:58:15.240 not going to change their mind about any of this. 0:58:16.320 --> 0:58:20.080 And we're going to go through a few years of 0:58:20.800 --> 0:58:27.600 just very nasty talk from Israeli leadership about Democrats because 0:58:27.600 --> 0:58:31.960 of their support for this. Hillary is trying to avoid 0:58:32.000 --> 0:58:35.840 it by as usual, not taking a position strong position 0:58:35.920 --> 0:58:38.720 on it, but you'll you'll get a lot of anti 0:58:38.840 --> 0:58:43.960 democratic feeling from Israelis as far as American Jews are concerned. 0:58:45.960 --> 0:58:52.880 The polls show SI are in favor of with Iran 0:58:53.800 --> 0:58:59.840 and about twenty are posted very much against it. So 0:59:01.000 --> 0:59:07.080 if you have six of US Jews disagreeing with Israeli's 0:59:07.160 --> 0:59:10.760 supporting President Obama, what does that mean for the odds 0:59:10.800 --> 0:59:17.360 of this policy, this, this um treaty actually becoming the 0:59:17.440 --> 0:59:20.040 law of the land. Well, I I think it will. 0:59:20.480 --> 0:59:23.040 At least the people who do the vote atting say 0:59:23.440 --> 0:59:26.560 that a presidential veto will be sustained in the Senate. 0:59:27.320 --> 0:59:29.080 I don't know about the House, but in the Senate 0:59:29.360 --> 0:59:31.479 that's really the only place that matters. If you can't 0:59:31.520 --> 0:59:35.480 override into both houses, that's it. This becomes law. Is 0:59:35.480 --> 0:59:38.840 there any chance down the road that there's a detant 0:59:39.440 --> 0:59:43.560 between Israel and Iran? Is that something that's possible not 0:59:43.680 --> 0:59:47.640 for a long time to come. Look, I've spent a 0:59:47.640 --> 0:59:51.760 good deal of my life working on arms control, even 0:59:51.800 --> 0:59:54.360 though I didn't believe arms control was arms control. I 0:59:54.360 --> 0:59:59.560 think arms control was managing relations with an adversary. And 0:59:59.600 --> 1:00:01.760 if you look at the history of all the arms 1:00:01.800 --> 1:00:08.400 control treaties we reached. They didn't solve the problems. They 1:00:08.720 --> 1:00:13.280 minimize the problems to varying degrees. They lessen the problem, 1:00:13.400 --> 1:00:16.920 or they put the most serious problems off into the 1:00:16.960 --> 1:00:20.440 future where there was a better chance of managing them. 1:00:20.560 --> 1:00:24.920 We've kind of forgotten that arms control agreements are not 1:00:25.640 --> 1:00:31.800 agreements of surrender by one party to another. You're you're 1:00:31.800 --> 1:00:34.160 trying to bargain with another state that has its own 1:00:34.200 --> 1:00:37.040 interests and it's not going to give certain things up, 1:00:37.720 --> 1:00:40.760 and you make agreements to lessen the threat, which this 1:00:40.880 --> 1:00:45.800 agreement absolutely does. Even the critics say the main point 1:00:45.960 --> 1:00:49.560 is well inten to fifteen years, they can decide they 1:00:49.600 --> 1:00:53.120 don't want to abide by this anymore. It's a long 1:00:53.200 --> 1:00:58.440 time as opposed to Tuesday exactly, And that's the central 1:00:58.600 --> 1:01:01.400 point to keep making the people. But it's hard to 1:01:01.400 --> 1:01:05.360 get through when the hysteria has reached the proportions it has. 1:01:05.480 --> 1:01:08.640 There certainly are histrionics coming out, and it's a coming 1:01:08.680 --> 1:01:12.760 up on a presidential election year, which just amplifies that 1:01:12.880 --> 1:01:15.880 even more. All Right, so let's let's shift gears and 1:01:15.920 --> 1:01:17.720 I'm gonna take you to a different part of the world. 1:01:18.120 --> 1:01:23.080 Let's talk about Russia and the Ukraine. So you had 1:01:23.120 --> 1:01:28.680 said previously that they had set up Russian Ukrainian speaking 1:01:28.760 --> 1:01:34.000 Russians and special forces within Ukraine, and we're fomenting civil 1:01:34.040 --> 1:01:39.160 descent the Russians. What's their endgame? What does Putin want? 1:01:39.480 --> 1:01:42.240 He got Crimea, what does he want from Ukraine? Yeah? 1:01:42.280 --> 1:01:47.040 I think what what he wants is to establish Russia 1:01:47.120 --> 1:01:51.160 again as a major power and wants to be treated 1:01:51.640 --> 1:01:54.880 as a as a major power. Is Putin not treated 1:01:54.920 --> 1:01:57.160 as a major power. I think that there's a lot 1:01:57.280 --> 1:02:01.600 to show from a Russian point of you that we 1:02:01.800 --> 1:02:05.040 diminished them, and we diminished them in all sorts of ways, 1:02:05.360 --> 1:02:11.720 certainly economically economically, including in Ukraine, where the Europeans made 1:02:11.720 --> 1:02:15.800 a proposal in effect to incorporate Ukraine into the European 1:02:15.800 --> 1:02:21.440 economy and push Russia aside. It's intolerable to give a 1:02:21.520 --> 1:02:25.560 caution history and to somebody like Putin. The central thing 1:02:25.560 --> 1:02:28.960 about Russians and foreign policy for hundreds of years is 1:02:29.600 --> 1:02:33.200 they like to flex their muscles. They like to be 1:02:33.520 --> 1:02:36.200 the great power, they like to be treated like the boss. 1:02:37.000 --> 1:02:40.040 And they lost the Cold War. The country was diminished 1:02:40.040 --> 1:02:45.760 in size and in power all these respects and then 1:02:46.040 --> 1:02:49.760 you know, here we do this with Ukraine. We bring 1:02:49.800 --> 1:02:52.720 the Baltic States into NATO. These are states that used 1:02:52.720 --> 1:02:56.080 to be part of the Soviet Union and now they're 1:02:56.160 --> 1:02:59.720 under NATO. Uh. It looked like we were going to 1:02:59.760 --> 1:03:03.200 bring in Georgia and Ukraine, and Tonedo was as well. 1:03:03.560 --> 1:03:06.240 And I think Putin has been fighting against all of this. 1:03:06.800 --> 1:03:09.560 Now I wouldn't give him the right. These countries don't 1:03:09.600 --> 1:03:13.439 belong to this, but as a great power, he has 1:03:13.440 --> 1:03:16.080 a right to a say in those countries and what 1:03:16.160 --> 1:03:20.240 happens there, just as we would have a right, uh 1:03:20.280 --> 1:03:23.760 to to what happens in our hemisphere. People have forgotten 1:03:23.800 --> 1:03:27.760 about the Monroe Doctrine, which is a pretty blatant assertion 1:03:27.800 --> 1:03:31.040 of US authority and rights in the hemisphere. What if 1:03:31.120 --> 1:03:34.640 China would open up military bases in Mexico, what do 1:03:34.680 --> 1:03:37.480 you think we would do about that? We would go insane. 1:03:38.760 --> 1:03:42.040 So you have to understand it from Putin's point of view. 1:03:42.200 --> 1:03:45.440 The second thing you have to understand is that on 1:03:45.680 --> 1:03:51.960 their western borders, Russia has military superiority over the United 1:03:51.960 --> 1:03:55.920 States and the West. You see, people don't know that though, 1:03:56.600 --> 1:04:01.280 um about World War two of Germans. If they weren't. 1:04:01.480 --> 1:04:04.120 If Hitler didn't attack Russia, the outcome could have been 1:04:04.200 --> 1:04:07.720 very different, There's no question about it. But here today 1:04:07.960 --> 1:04:10.720 people think, you know, Russia is on its knees on 1:04:10.760 --> 1:04:17.360 its borders western western borders with Ukraine. Yes, aircraft, air defenses, whatnot. 1:04:17.840 --> 1:04:22.600 A couple of months ago, the the Supreme Allied Commander 1:04:22.600 --> 1:04:27.720 for NATO, General Breedlove Americans. Sure. He was on Christian 1:04:27.800 --> 1:04:31.880 almanpor on CNN on CNN, and he was saying this 1:04:32.000 --> 1:04:36.360 to her, that they have a massive military on the 1:04:36.800 --> 1:04:39.680 border and they can trump us militarily whatever we do. 1:04:39.760 --> 1:04:41.920 We want to put a more eight to Ukraine, they 1:04:41.920 --> 1:04:45.920 can put in even more to their supporters in eastern Ukraine. 1:04:46.640 --> 1:04:49.480 You want to start shooting bullets, they can shoot more 1:04:49.520 --> 1:04:52.720 bullets right on their borders. Beyond their borders, we have 1:04:52.840 --> 1:04:56.000 the superiority. But on their borders they've got it. And 1:04:56.120 --> 1:05:02.600 Christian responded when he was finished, Wow, no idea, no idea, 1:05:02.680 --> 1:05:05.600 She said, wow if you if you know World War 1:05:05.720 --> 1:05:08.760 two history. And I don't call myself a military history buff, 1:05:09.160 --> 1:05:11.400 but I read Keegan's book, and I read a lot 1:05:11.480 --> 1:05:16.000 of the big um fascinating stories about what took place, 1:05:16.400 --> 1:05:19.760 not too long ago. I was in St. Petersburg, you know, 1:05:19.840 --> 1:05:24.280 you see some of the old memorials and what took 1:05:24.320 --> 1:05:33.360 place there. Russia always has had a massive European looking 1:05:33.400 --> 1:05:36.320 military force they have. Let me tell you the end 1:05:36.360 --> 1:05:40.080 of that conversation. Now she says, wow, and then she says, 1:05:40.120 --> 1:05:42.680 but then, what would you do about it? He said, well, 1:05:42.680 --> 1:05:45.080 of course we've got to keep up our military strength, 1:05:45.720 --> 1:05:49.640 but we need diplomacy. This is a general saying this 1:05:49.800 --> 1:05:54.200 to the general, And I've had loads of conversations with 1:05:54.920 --> 1:05:57.920 senior NATO generals. They all say the same thing. You 1:05:58.000 --> 1:06:01.800 need diplomacy. You need to work a kind of relationship 1:06:02.320 --> 1:06:05.720 with the Russians where they are treated like a major power. 1:06:06.040 --> 1:06:10.040 You don't give them the Baltic States or Ukraine, but 1:06:10.160 --> 1:06:14.200 you take their interest into account. Look, how do you 1:06:14.320 --> 1:06:17.720 how do you judge where the Russia matters? Russia is 1:06:17.720 --> 1:06:21.320 no longer a global superpower, but they are a great power. 1:06:21.680 --> 1:06:24.000 And how do you measure that? You measure it in 1:06:24.120 --> 1:06:27.560 terms of whether Russia can help or hurt us in 1:06:27.680 --> 1:06:31.200 various parts of the world, and they can. Who can 1:06:31.280 --> 1:06:34.400 help us more than any other country in dealing with 1:06:34.440 --> 1:06:38.400 what's happening in Syria and Iraq. It's Russia fighting terrorism. 1:06:38.720 --> 1:06:42.000 Russia has one of the best anti terrorist operations in 1:06:42.040 --> 1:06:48.000 the world. Intelligence in terms of nuclear proliferation, Russia is 1:06:48.040 --> 1:06:51.120 a major partner of ours. Look, they just didn't with Iran. 1:06:51.400 --> 1:06:55.720 They by the way, fascinating the Russian interest in Iran 1:06:55.880 --> 1:07:00.120 and how much they were really a key actor in 1:07:00.240 --> 1:07:03.760 helping that treaty move forward. They were there, were central 1:07:03.800 --> 1:07:08.600 to it. And in the case of their states on 1:07:08.640 --> 1:07:11.840 their western borders, they can hurt us unless you have 1:07:11.880 --> 1:07:16.160 some diplomacy that takes their interests into account, doesn't give 1:07:16.200 --> 1:07:20.520 them control of these countries, but gives them a say 1:07:20.600 --> 1:07:23.080 so that they're treated like a major power like we 1:07:23.120 --> 1:07:27.120 would expect to be treated on our borders. So given 1:07:27.560 --> 1:07:30.720 you know, if it would have been a president like 1:07:30.800 --> 1:07:35.760 George Bush who wasn't a big believer in in diplomatic efforts, 1:07:36.360 --> 1:07:39.040 I would say, well, of course we're not having any 1:07:39.120 --> 1:07:45.800 luck with Russia. But the present administration I ran Cuba elsewhere. Um, 1:07:45.880 --> 1:07:49.000 although we seem to not be very successful with China 1:07:49.720 --> 1:07:54.440 on certain diplomatic efforts, why isn't this an administration recognizing 1:07:54.480 --> 1:07:59.200 what generals like breed Love says, and and paying Look, 1:07:59.240 --> 1:08:02.920 no one expect the United States to pay homage to Putin, 1:08:03.040 --> 1:08:07.880 but it sounds like he's looking for some respects, some recognition, 1:08:08.160 --> 1:08:12.400 and some input into the decision making process. Given how 1:08:12.400 --> 1:08:16.840 helpful he was in Iran. Why aren't we having a 1:08:16.880 --> 1:08:20.719 better engagement and better relationship with Russia? A good question. 1:08:20.760 --> 1:08:24.000 There there are a lot of people inside even this administration, 1:08:24.640 --> 1:08:28.120 who think they can knock Russia to the floor. Well 1:08:28.160 --> 1:08:31.200 what's the upside of that? Why? Why? You know? I 1:08:31.240 --> 1:08:34.680 think they're just dead wrong. But there're people inside and 1:08:34.800 --> 1:08:37.360 people they consult on the outside who have this point 1:08:37.360 --> 1:08:40.840 of view, and not all generals agree with Breathlow, the 1:08:40.880 --> 1:08:44.160 new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and testifying before the 1:08:44.200 --> 1:08:47.200 Senate a few weeks ago, said the Russia is the 1:08:47.200 --> 1:08:50.840 biggest threat security threat of the United States. So you 1:08:50.840 --> 1:08:53.720 have people who say these things and then they don't 1:08:53.760 --> 1:08:57.840 say what they're going to do about it practically. Yeah, 1:08:58.800 --> 1:09:04.160 you know, the in St. Petersburg, there's a memorial to 1:09:04.600 --> 1:09:10.000 the civilians. During World War Two, the Germans encircled the city, 1:09:10.040 --> 1:09:12.320 which is really very much on the western border. It's 1:09:12.360 --> 1:09:15.719 long before they went deep into the Russian winter. Further 1:09:15.840 --> 1:09:18.960 further east, and they tried to starve the city out. 1:09:19.560 --> 1:09:24.479 And I'm trying to some ungodly number of civilians died 1:09:24.520 --> 1:09:30.000 in St. Petersburg, just insane, insane numbers. And the Russians, 1:09:30.240 --> 1:09:34.559 these are really tough people. They didn't it went a 1:09:34.640 --> 1:09:36.920 year or two. They didn't surrender, they didn't give up. 1:09:37.280 --> 1:09:40.120 They kept the Germans at bay. Not a lot of 1:09:40.160 --> 1:09:44.400 cities could have survived with the Germans put St. Petersburg through. 1:09:44.800 --> 1:09:48.600 Anyone who thinks that you're gonna just shove the Russians 1:09:48.600 --> 1:09:52.360 over and they're gonna topple, you just have to read 1:09:52.479 --> 1:09:55.479 military history. That ain't gonna happen. Do you need to 1:09:55.479 --> 1:09:58.719 go back to Napoleon. That's not gonna happen. But you see, 1:09:58.720 --> 1:10:01.559 it's not just it's not just to Russia. It's we 1:10:01.640 --> 1:10:03.519 thought we would do it with Cuba. We thought we 1:10:03.520 --> 1:10:08.960 could do it with Iran, and none of economic sanctions, 1:10:09.040 --> 1:10:13.479 political pressure, even military pressure did not bring these countries 1:10:13.720 --> 1:10:17.040 to their knees. And what do people want? Do they 1:10:17.040 --> 1:10:19.280 want to go to war with Iran? What do they 1:10:19.280 --> 1:10:22.120 think the consequences of that would be? Did we want 1:10:22.120 --> 1:10:26.680 to invade Cuba? Only some nuts wanted to invade Cuba. 1:10:26.840 --> 1:10:29.200 So I only have you for a couple more minutes. 1:10:29.320 --> 1:10:32.120 Let me go to some of my favorite few short 1:10:32.200 --> 1:10:34.800 questions that I ask all my guests, and then we'll 1:10:34.840 --> 1:10:37.760 we'll get you out of here on time. Um. So 1:10:38.560 --> 1:10:43.400 aside from Senator Javits, who were some of your early mentors, well, 1:10:43.439 --> 1:10:47.439 I would say Clark Clifford, who replaced McNamara's secretary Defense, 1:10:47.600 --> 1:10:52.160 was a a major influence in my life because he 1:10:52.280 --> 1:10:57.360 really brought home to me the importance of thinking through 1:10:57.439 --> 1:11:01.439 strategy before you made your first moves on any area 1:11:01.520 --> 1:11:04.160 of importance. And if it took two weeks to do 1:11:04.240 --> 1:11:06.599 it or whatever, you take that time to do it 1:11:06.640 --> 1:11:09.879 before you start moving. Otherwise you get you trap yourself. 1:11:10.120 --> 1:11:12.760 Sounds like it sounds like common sense, but it's pure 1:11:12.840 --> 1:11:15.680 common sense. But it isn't done. You can see it 1:11:15.800 --> 1:11:21.080 time and again and in decisions made by presidents after presidents. 1:11:21.600 --> 1:11:25.240 So aside from Clifford, let's let's talk a little more philosophy. 1:11:25.280 --> 1:11:30.120 What what thinkers influenced your approach to either foreign policy 1:11:30.280 --> 1:11:35.400 or or economics. Yeah, I would say the Realist school. 1:11:35.720 --> 1:11:39.599 Henry Kissinger was my PhD advisor, are really and I 1:11:39.680 --> 1:11:43.519 was his teaching fellow and his courses there. Uh. And 1:11:43.520 --> 1:11:46.240 and he's a realist. If if nothing, he's a realist. 1:11:46.720 --> 1:11:51.240 And I think that's basically the the framework I've adopted 1:11:51.240 --> 1:11:54.080 in dealing with the with the world. I believe in power. 1:11:54.960 --> 1:11:58.080 I don't think you get things done through what we 1:11:58.200 --> 1:12:02.240 like to call soft power. Uh, that we persuade people, 1:12:02.280 --> 1:12:05.639 we understand their interests better than they do. We think 1:12:05.680 --> 1:12:08.800 our values are going to get them to restrain themselves. 1:12:09.080 --> 1:12:13.519 It just doesn't happen. It doesn't happen. What happens is power, 1:12:13.600 --> 1:12:16.640 where you get people to do things or not to 1:12:16.720 --> 1:12:21.120 do things because you change their calculus about their interests, 1:12:21.320 --> 1:12:24.280 what they're gonna gain, what they're gonna lose. And if 1:12:24.280 --> 1:12:27.240 you can't affect that calculus, you're not going to be 1:12:27.280 --> 1:12:29.719 able to achieve what you want. Pure carrot and stick. 1:12:30.360 --> 1:12:33.280 It's pretty much that. Yes, So we talked about the 1:12:33.360 --> 1:12:36.639 shifts in in politics. What major shifts have you seen 1:12:36.720 --> 1:12:40.080 take place in diplomacy and are these a good thing 1:12:40.280 --> 1:12:43.320 or a bad thing? Yeah. I don't think we've adjusted 1:12:43.400 --> 1:12:45.880 to the world of the twenty one century US in 1:12:45.920 --> 1:12:49.880 the United States, our foreign policy mostly US really Yeah, 1:12:49.960 --> 1:12:53.639 because we have more responsibility than any anyone else. There's 1:12:53.680 --> 1:12:57.120 any any problem anywhere in the world, people immediately turned 1:12:57.160 --> 1:13:01.160 to the United States, and unfortunately, to often we try 1:13:01.160 --> 1:13:04.040 to go respond to it without knowing what they're doing, 1:13:04.080 --> 1:13:09.240 without thinking through a Clifford Clifford's approach, actually give it real, 1:13:09.439 --> 1:13:14.799 real thought. Um, what what are some of your favorite 1:13:14.800 --> 1:13:18.719 books that that have influenced either you're thinking or changed 1:13:18.720 --> 1:13:23.200 your mind about different aspects of FIGN policy. I think 1:13:23.280 --> 1:13:28.679 mainly history books. I try to immerse myself in history, 1:13:29.439 --> 1:13:36.120 mainly to see how things went wrong and on those 1:13:36.160 --> 1:13:39.639 few occasions, how they went right, to give myself more 1:13:39.680 --> 1:13:45.840 of a finger feel and intellectual appreciation of the difficulties 1:13:46.520 --> 1:13:51.840 of dealing with problems that you can't control, where you 1:13:51.880 --> 1:13:56.120 have to use your power, and the power can't make 1:13:56.200 --> 1:13:58.680 things in and in and of itself come out the 1:13:58.680 --> 1:14:02.800 way you want. Let me let me shift up my 1:14:03.000 --> 1:14:07.160 second to last question. I always ask people, um, what 1:14:07.280 --> 1:14:11.000 advice they'd give to a millennial or someone graduating college 1:14:11.080 --> 1:14:16.240 about their career. But let me ask you it slightly differently. Uh, 1:14:16.479 --> 1:14:20.599 someone comes to you just graduating career, graduating college and says, 1:14:21.160 --> 1:14:25.880 I'm interested in a career in in the State Department 1:14:26.120 --> 1:14:29.760 or foreign affairs or diplomacy. What sort of advice would 1:14:29.760 --> 1:14:33.720 you would you give them? I would say, first, demonstrate 1:14:33.760 --> 1:14:36.400 to your boss that you know how to get things done, 1:14:37.280 --> 1:14:41.200 which means you think through the strategy. I'm sensing a 1:14:41.240 --> 1:14:45.120 theme here. You think through his strategy and you figure 1:14:45.160 --> 1:14:48.280 out how to deal with people well enough to move 1:14:48.320 --> 1:14:51.680 the pieces along so that in whatever it takes a 1:14:51.720 --> 1:14:55.200 week or three months, your boss sees you've accomplished it. 1:14:55.960 --> 1:14:58.519 And if he sees that you're going to get ahead. 1:14:59.760 --> 1:15:05.760 LA question, what do you know today about foreign affairs, diplomacy, 1:15:05.960 --> 1:15:10.760 military power, economic might that you wish you knew when 1:15:10.760 --> 1:15:20.320 you began fifty years ago. I think, uh, that I 1:15:20.840 --> 1:15:24.880 should have had a better appreciation of what our power 1:15:24.920 --> 1:15:28.280 could accomplish in different places at different times, and what 1:15:28.400 --> 1:15:32.120 it could not accomplish. Limitations on the projection of and 1:15:32.200 --> 1:15:34.400 what you could do to what you could do what 1:15:34.520 --> 1:15:38.880 you couldn't do. Fantastic, Dr Gelb, thank you so much 1:15:38.920 --> 1:15:41.800 for being so generous with your time. There's so many 1:15:41.840 --> 1:15:44.280 things we didn't get to, but I know you have 1:15:44.479 --> 1:15:47.920 other places to go. Today we've been speaking with Dr 1:15:48.040 --> 1:15:53.520 Leslie Gelb on the impact of the economy and projections 1:15:53.600 --> 1:15:57.360 of power. If you enjoyed this conversation, look an inch 1:15:57.439 --> 1:16:00.720 high or lower on Apple iTunes and you'll see the 1:16:00.720 --> 1:16:05.000 other fifty or so shows we've done. Um be sure 1:16:05.040 --> 1:16:09.120 and check out my daily column on Bloomberg View dot com. 1:16:09.120 --> 1:16:12.240 Follow me on Twitter at rid Halts. I want to 1:16:12.280 --> 1:16:14.679 thank Mike bat Nick, my head of research, for helping 1:16:14.760 --> 1:16:18.839 us out. Charlie Volmer is our producer, and our engineer 1:16:18.920 --> 1:16:22.599 today is Matt Ryan. I'm Barry Rich Halts. You're listening 1:16:22.600 --> 1:16:25.280 to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.