1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:11,239 Speaker 1: This week on Masters in Business, we have a very 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: special foreign affairs edition of our podcast. You know, given 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: everything that's been going on around the world, we have 5 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: the Chinese currency devaluation, we have Russia invading Ukraine and 6 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: annexting CRIMEA were normalizing relations with Cuba, where in the 7 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: midst of an enormous policy negotiation about the Iran nuclear deal. 8 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 1: I thought it would be a good good time to 9 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: bring in somebody with a broad and deep expertise on 10 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: foreign affairs, and I was fortunate enough to somehow talk 11 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: Dr leslie Gelb into joining us. You know, if I 12 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: read his his curriculum Vita on the air, it would 13 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: take up the whole ninety minute podcast. He's just an 14 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: incredibly storied guy. Well we get into some of the 15 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 1: broader aspects of what he done. What he's done. UH 16 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: started as a just a PhD professor at at a school, 17 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: gets recruited by Senator Jacob Javits, was the you senator 18 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: from New York State to the U. S. Senate, UH 19 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: and from there the Department of Defense, the State Department 20 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 1: to the New York Times to the Council of Farm 21 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: Relations just he called it failing upwards, but let's be honest, 22 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 1: the guy is just a fascinating, amazing person. UM. General 23 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: McNamara appoints him to the head of the project that 24 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: essentially produces the famous Pentagon Papers, which was a broad 25 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: and deep look at the U S involvement in Vietnam 26 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: while we're still in the midst of Vietnam. It was 27 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: sort of a moment of reflection to figure out, Hey, 28 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:55,639 Speaker 1: what are we doing right and wrong and what lessons 29 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: can we learn about this for future military entanglements. His 30 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: concept of how to UM, how to interact with other countries, 31 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 1: the limits and positives of projecting both military and economic 32 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 1: power quite fascinating. What he has to say UM about 33 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 1: China is amazing. He has some insights as to how 34 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: their military works, UH and where it works and where 35 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: they've purposefully avoided military entanglements is really quite quite fascinating. UM. 36 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: He tells stories about dinners with Fidel Castro and and 37 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: presenting to the UH generals of Cuba. Just really really 38 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: amazing stuff. I found it absolutely interesting. He is not 39 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: without controversy, UM, but usually it's for for good reasons 40 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: because he says things that the powers that be don't 41 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: like to hear, even though they're fact based and throw 42 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: and time and again have turned out to be correct. 43 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: Oh I left out in the middle of all these jobs. 44 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: He takes a position um in The New York Time 45 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: with The New York Times as a a foreign policies 46 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 1: correspondent and ultimately wins a Pulitzer Prize for his work 47 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: reporting on Ronald Reagan's strategic Defense Initiative in depth six 48 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: part series. Ironically, here's a guy who never so much 49 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: has written for a high school paper, rights for the Times. 50 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: Wins of Pulitzer just just incredible, incredibly accomplished, unbelievably knowledgeable 51 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: and insightful. Given all the things that are going on 52 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: in the world, all the really major macro uh situations 53 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: that are roiling countries and currencies and economies, and of 54 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: course that impacts the market. Uh, what better time is 55 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: there than today for a conversation with Dr les galp So, 56 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: with no further ado, here's our discussion on foreign affairs 57 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: with Leslie. Help. This is Masters in Business with Barry 58 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio. I have a very special guest 59 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: and the timing could not be more opportune. Dr Leslie Gelb, 60 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: whose curriculum Vitae, will take up the entire show if 61 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: I read it, but I will just give you the 62 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: brief overview as to why our guest is so perfect 63 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: given everything that's happening in the world, uh these days. 64 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: Dr Gelb got his b A and m A from 65 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 1: Tough University before getting his PhD from Harvard in nine. 66 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 1: He then taught government at Wesleyan before Jacob Javits recruited 67 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: him to become his executive assistance. Javits was the senator 68 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 1: from New York and one of my favorites. He ultimately 69 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: ended up becoming the Director of Bureau of Political Mill 70 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: at Terry Affairs. He was appointed by Secretary of Defense 71 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: McNamara as director of the project that ultimately produced the 72 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 1: Pentagon Papers. He then moved on to The New York Times, 73 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 1: where he was a diplomatic correspondent, winning the Pulitzer Prize 74 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: for Explanatory Journalism for a six part series on the 75 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: Star Wars Strategic Defense Initiative. President of the Council of 76 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: Foreign Relations, President Emeritus, and the rest of this list 77 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: is too long to go into author of numerous books 78 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 1: on foreign policy. Let me just stop there and say, 79 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: Dr Gelb, welcome to Bloomberg. Could you be here? So 80 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: the timing is really fortuitous. We've been talking about this 81 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 1: some time ago, but here we are with all sorts 82 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 1: of things happening in I ran Uh, Cuba, China. The 83 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 1: world has just really been um just going through all 84 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: sorts of of changes. Let's start with with your career 85 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: from the beginning. How do you end up going from 86 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 1: a professor out of college to essentially running the office 87 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: of a US sender. It was a miracle. You get 88 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: jobs initially based on connections who you know where, and 89 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: when I was doing my PhD at Harvard, I met 90 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 1: a lot of people. Some of these people were involved 91 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: with Republican politics in Congress, and one of these guys 92 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: heard that Javits was looking for an executive assistant to 93 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: focus on foreign affairs, international economics, defense, so forth, and 94 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 1: recommended me. I went to see Javits and then all 95 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 1: the rest of the career kind of flowed from there 96 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: because and this is something your your business people, financial 97 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: people will appreciate, is actually justice. I think two jobs 98 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:06,239 Speaker 1: if you show you know how to get things done. 99 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: You're in a one cent at the top, and everybody 100 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: wants you because it means they don't have to worry 101 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: about doing it themselves. They give you an assignment and 102 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: it gets and it gets done and gets done at 103 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: a decent quality. And I demonstrated that. So the rest 104 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 1: of the career just flowed almost miraculously and without any planning. 105 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: I mean, when The New York Times offered me the 106 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: job is a diplomatic correspondent, I told A Rosenthal, who 107 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: was the executive editor of The Times, I said, I've 108 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: never even been on a junior high school newspaper, and 109 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: that ultimately, so let's talk a little bit about the Times. 110 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: Although there's a lot of career in between Javits's office 111 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: and the Times. In between. Um Secretary of Defense McNamara 112 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: was that his title at the time, sectors, he was 113 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: a Secretary Defense. Appoint you to a committee. The person 114 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: running the committee, if memory serves correctly, dies in a 115 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:08,239 Speaker 1: plane crash and you end up taking over the project 116 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 1: or my misremembering, it didn't happen that way. My me, 117 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: my immediate boss, Assistant Secretary Defense John McNaughton was promoted 118 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 1: from that Assistant Secretary job to be Secretary of the Navy. 119 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 1: A few days later, he and members of his family 120 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: died in a crash. But I was at the time 121 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 1: director of Policy Planning in the Pentagon and another office 122 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: for which I was not qualified. I was thirty years 123 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: old and I had that job. But then within weeks 124 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 1: of having that job, I was also given the task 125 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: of doing what became the Pentagon Papers, the history of 126 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: US involvement in Vietnam. And we're going to definitely talk 127 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 1: more about Vietnam a little later. You say you weren't qualified, 128 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,319 Speaker 1: but you were awarded from the State Department the Distinguished 129 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: Honor Award, which is their highest recognition for the work 130 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:06,319 Speaker 1: you did. So when you say, okay, I went from 131 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: Javits to the Defense Department, and I also got the 132 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,839 Speaker 1: highest award there too. So that suggests that perhaps you 133 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: were somewhat qualified, or it suggests that they give away 134 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: the awards. Okay. So that's the other side of the argument. 135 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: I was trying to give you the benefit of the doubt, 136 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: and um, well, I'm gonna have to go to Wikipedia 137 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,440 Speaker 1: and rewrite your bio. They give these awards out. How 138 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: do I get one of those? Can I just apply 139 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: or I don't think they give him out all that often. 140 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: And to have one both from the Department of Defense 141 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: and and from the State Department, that's a fairly respectable right. 142 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: That's a fairly respectable achievement. So now you essentially oversee 143 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: the creation of the Pentagon Papers, which details in tremendous 144 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 1: specificity what happened in Vietnam, what the goals weren't, and 145 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: where it went wrong. This was supposed to be an 146 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: internal study, not released to the public. Correct And so 147 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: there I believe there were fifteen copies, some of which 148 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: were leaked, parts of which were leaked to the New 149 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 1: York Times. That's right, Ellsberg. Daniel Ellsberg leaked almost a 150 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: full set of The Times that he didn't include the 151 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: four volumes on the Secret Negotiations. You're listening to Masters 152 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 1: in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My special guest today is 153 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 1: Dr leslie Gelb, an expert on foreign affairs and the 154 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: projection of power and influence around the world. One of 155 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: the things that you've written that I've always found fascinating 156 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: is it's not necessarily just military strength, but it's the 157 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: underlying economic strength that really has a giant impact on 158 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: foreign policy. Let's start discussing that what is the role 159 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: of of the fundamental economic power of a country to 160 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: influence its foreign policy. Economics is really now central two 161 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: power in foreign policy to power in international relations. Throughout 162 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 1: history it was military power, military force that was the 163 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:19,959 Speaker 1: main arbiter of things. Big countries made demands on lesser ones. 164 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 1: If they didn't obey, they got cracked, they got defeated 165 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: on the battlefield. Now, isn't the underlying economic strength of 166 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: go back to the Romans or the Greeks, or whoever 167 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: we want to look to in history, the ability to 168 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: field a large, well equipped, well fed, standing army. Isn't 169 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: that a function of their underlying economy. The economy, of 170 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: course was important in in in sustaining a large and 171 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: effective army, but it wasn't a typical instrument of foreign affairs. 172 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: When things came to be settled between tribes or nations, 173 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: it was by force. If you look at most international 174 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: transactions today, there is very very little force. Historically unprecedented 175 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: little force between nations. They used to go out and 176 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 1: fight each other all the time. Uh, it's very rare. 177 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 1: Now you see one nation attack another nation. Almost all 178 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: the wars are within nations, within Afghanistan, within Iraq, within Vietnam, 179 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: and so forth. That's a huge positive development the amount 180 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 1: of wars and and battlefield skirmishes between countries. So Russia 181 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 1: and the Ukraine that that's an aberration. Well, Russia isn't 182 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: in open conventional warfare. They sent in their special forces 183 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:57,199 Speaker 1: and they built up units of you of Russian speaking Ukrainians, 184 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 1: and basically that's how the war is being fought rather 185 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: than by main force Russian units. So it was really 186 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: they sort of fomented a civil war. Interesting. So, so 187 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: back to the economy. Here we are in the early 188 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: decades of the twenty one century. Uh, the United States 189 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: remains the largest, most significant economy in the world, but 190 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: China is, despite their recent stock market issues and they're 191 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: slow down in their economy, is soon to be the 192 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: largest economy in the world. How does that play into 193 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: their ability to project influence around the world. See, China 194 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: is a perfect case of what I'm talking about, because 195 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: China is the first global power, global great power not 196 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: to be a global military power. China has no real 197 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: military punch worldwide. China's military strength is restricted almost entire 198 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: elite to its borders and to adjacent ceas. Now they're 199 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: building up their air force. They're supposedly adding all these 200 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: different carrier and submarine groups. They're taking a lot of 201 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: their newfound economic wealth and directing some of it to 202 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: the military. What does that meanthing more and more of 203 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: it to the military. But it's almost entirely in the 204 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: Asia Pacific region. To become a world military power, you 205 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: need basis worldwide, and you need the capabilities to move 206 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: navies and air units around the world. They don't begin 207 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: to have this. What what does that say to us 208 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: about China's aspirations that this doesn't seem to be a 209 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: focus of theirs at least at present. Well, that's the 210 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: necessary qualifier, at least at present. What they're doing is 211 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: what China has done throughout its history, really uh to 212 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: make sure that they were the strongest country on their borders, 213 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: and they're shoring that right now. But they in the process, 214 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: they are developing a capability to project their military power 215 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: further than they ever did before. But there's still nowhere 216 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: near it. There a decade or two away from having 217 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: that kind of capability. Now I've seen urgent but just 218 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: to finish the point. But China counts around the world, 219 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: not because it can apply military force in the Middle 220 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: East or Africa whatever. No one even thinks of China 221 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: momentarily in those places, but because of its trade and investments. 222 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: Is there a lesson there for the United States? They? 223 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: They you look at how much we spend on our 224 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 1: military depending on which study you look at, it's the 225 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 1: next twelve or fifteen countries combined. Are we hurting ourselves 226 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: by having uh an over emphasis on on military spending 227 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: versus competitors like China. Yeah, it's not the next ten 228 00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: or fifteen total equal in the American total defense now 229 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: it's about eight eight or so of the next most 230 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,400 Speaker 1: uh still a big number, Yeah, it is. It is 231 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: a very big number. And you know, the Chinese military 232 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: budget probably is in the neighborhood of a hundred fifty 233 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: billion bucks, and we're still up around five hundred billion. 234 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: But it's not just that. It's having experience and being 235 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 1: able to control military technology to make it operational. We've 236 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: been in wars, so our military knows how to use 237 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: this stuff. China is much less proficient at it. So 238 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: what does that mean going forward? Is China because what 239 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: I'm hearing from you is China is obviously an economic competitor, 240 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: but not really very much of a military threat to 241 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: the United States interests. Yes, but China is ensuring that 242 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: it controls its borders and the immediate UH water areas. 243 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: And that does mean something because we have allies in 244 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: that area, South Korea and so forth, Philippines, We have 245 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: treaties with these countries, and they feel the threat coming 246 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: from Chinese muscling, Chinese muscling into the islands in the 247 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 1: South China Sea and claiming them as part of Chinese 248 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: territory and the like. But you see, as much as 249 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,520 Speaker 1: the nations of Asia are turning more and more to 250 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: the United States for security protection, they don't want to 251 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: go too far. They don't want to anger China because 252 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 1: China is still the most important factor in that part 253 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: of the world when it comes to trade and investment. 254 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 1: You're listening to mass there was in Business on Bloomberg Radio. 255 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 1: My special guest today is Dr leslie Gelb, author of 256 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: many books, winner of numerous awards, including the Pulitzer Prize, 257 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 1: currently President Emeritus on the Council on Foreign Relations. Is 258 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 1: that correct and an expert on all sorts of issues 259 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: related to foreign affairs. Let's start with a really broad 260 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: question in the segment. Are we entering a new era 261 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: of diplomacy for the United States? It's a new era 262 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 1: of foreign policy generally, because problems are becoming more and 263 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: more difficult to solve, not just within our country domestically, 264 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: but worldwide, because major powers don't have anywhere near the 265 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 1: power they used to have, and we used to be 266 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,199 Speaker 1: able to combine with Europe and get a lot of 267 00:18:54,240 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: things done. And now the problems, as I explained four, 268 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: are less between nations where you can apply that power 269 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: that leverage more within nations, they have their own political problems, 270 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 1: they have their own civil wars, and it's much more 271 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: difficult for the power of the United States or China 272 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:24,640 Speaker 1: or Russia or whatever to influence events within countries rather 273 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: than between them. So so you mentioned Europe at one 274 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: point in time, I always I thought of Europe as 275 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: a great power. You look at the history at least 276 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 1: of of Western civilization, and first it was Spain, and 277 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: then it was France, and then it was England, and 278 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 1: Europe seemed to be the center of the world. That's 279 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: not really the case anymore, is it. For hundreds of years, 280 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: Europe was the center of the world, and that's where 281 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 1: power was located. And they went out and they in 282 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 1: effect rule the world, conquered all these territories, created colonies 283 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: and the like, including us here in the United States exactly. 284 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: And now now Europe is a second tier power at best. 285 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,400 Speaker 1: It's military punch is far, far less than it has 286 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 1: been historically. Uh. You know, Germany used to be one 287 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: of the great powers of the world, Britain and so forth. 288 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 1: But now they're all they're really all second tier. What 289 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: about what about the EU as an economic power. It's 290 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: one of the biggest economy is collectively it's one of 291 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 1: the biggest, But it doesn't do a very good job 292 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: of exercising economic power because the damn organization is so 293 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 1: bureaucratic and it thinks less in terms of using power 294 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:45,439 Speaker 1: to accomplish difficult things and more in terms of just 295 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:50,880 Speaker 1: getting along without creating problems. Quite quite fascinating. Let let 296 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 1: me shift gears a little bit on you and talk 297 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: about oil. I understand the whole economic thesis that strong 298 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: economy equals strong um projection of power. Let me ask 299 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,919 Speaker 1: a question this way, is the price of oil driving policy, 300 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: or is policy driving the price of oil. Well, in 301 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 1: the case of the Gulf States, let's say they have 302 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: so much money they don't have to worry about five 303 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: extra dollars per barrel, of extra dollars per bowl. They're loaded, 304 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: So their primary concern is foreign policy. So why is 305 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:35,120 Speaker 1: the price of oil as low as it is. It's 306 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 1: as low it is because they're keeping it that way, 307 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: and they're keeping it that way in anticipation of Iran 308 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: joining the oil market again in a major way, and 309 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: they want to make sure that Iran can't put its 310 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 1: hand on as many bucks as the Iranian leaders may 311 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: may hope, so they're keeping it low. They realize that 312 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: Iran is going to have more money and therefore more impact, 313 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: but they want to lessen that blow. And Iran has 314 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: been a little bit of a troublemaker in the Middle 315 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 1: East to say the least. Yes, Iran has been a 316 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,960 Speaker 1: trouble amerker. But if you ask me, Saudi Arabia has 317 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: caused the United States far more trouble over the last 318 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: thirty forty years than Iran as So let's let's focus 319 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 1: on that. That's fascinating. Let me let me just explain 320 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 1: that because most Americans just aren't aware who on earth 321 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: funded all these Jahadi's al qaeda isis al Nustra. Whore 322 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: Where did these funds come from? Where did the arms 323 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 1: they've been fighting with come from? They come mainly from 324 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. They've been financing it, 325 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: They've been creating the problem. Are our big partners there 326 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: from that part of the world, uh for their own 327 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 1: their own reasons, usually religious reasons, and their their opposition 328 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: to Western values. And you see this most clearly in 329 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: the thousands of madrasas He's are Islamic schools funded by 330 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: the Saudis and other Gulf states around the world, and 331 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 1: they preach extreme fundamental versions of Islam right and anti 332 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 1: Americanism and anti American values. So in the last minute, 333 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,879 Speaker 1: we have in the segment why do we think of 334 00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia as our ally because our government lets them 335 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 1: get away with it and doesn't make an issue of it. 336 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: But you know, it's a fact that the arms that 337 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 1: isis used at first came or financed by the Saudis 338 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,919 Speaker 1: and the other Gulf states. You're listening to Masters in 339 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio, my special guest today is Dr 340 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 1: Leslie Gelb, an expert on foreign policy and foreign affairs 341 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: and the impact of a domestic economy and how it 342 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 1: affects the country's ability to project power less segment. We 343 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: talked a little bit about UH, this new era of 344 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 1: diplomacy before before we go back to Iran, let's talk 345 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: a little bit about Cuba, which I think was a 346 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: surprise for a lot of people. No one really expected anything, 347 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: uh from a lame duck president, and yet seems to 348 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 1: be a lot of diplomatic initiatives that are starting to 349 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: bear fruit. What what are your thoughts on our change 350 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 1: of status with Cuba. I'm glad we're doing it. Overdue, Yeah, way, way, 351 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 1: way overdue. And the only thing that prevented it really 352 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: was the power of the Cuban American Foundation, group run 353 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: by Cuban emigres, who really locked on Cuba policy in 354 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: many ways like the American Jewish community locked on Middle 355 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 1: East policy and on Israel. So they the Cuban American Foundation, 356 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 1: prevented are doing any kind of opening with Cuba where 357 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 1: it didn't make any sense. And here for fifty years 358 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: we had economic sanctions against them. We tried to tighten 359 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: the noose around them and every way possible. It doesn't work. 360 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: Economic sanctions can hurt a country, and sure it's hurt 361 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: Cuba a great deal, but it can't bring them to 362 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,040 Speaker 1: their knees. It can't make them capitulate. We face the 363 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 1: same issue with Russia and Ukraine and we never learned 364 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: the lesson. And when the economic sanctions don't work, people 365 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 1: start talking about, well maybe we have to go to 366 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: war now. Haven't the economic sanctions worked with I Ran, 367 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 1: didn't we get them to really dramatically reduce their nuclear 368 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: program or not? What? What's the take on that we 369 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,439 Speaker 1: got them to dramatically reduce it? Which is why I 370 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,360 Speaker 1: think this agreement is a good one. We can come 371 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: back to that we did get them to dramatically reduce 372 00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: it UH for ten to fifteen years, unless there's cheating 373 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 1: and there's a breakout or so forth. So so let's 374 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 1: let's talk go back to the sanction issue. You have 375 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 1: a group in America, the number of different Cuban American 376 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: groups who don't want to see relations normalized is the 377 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 1: reason for that. They have a degree of power and 378 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 1: a voting block, and once this goes away, their power 379 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: goes away. At what point did they just become a 380 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 1: self defeating, self sustaining, for no more purpose political group. 381 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: Thanks too long for that to happen. Well here it 382 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: is half a century later. What what what do we 383 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: to make of either of the Cuban American group or 384 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: the Jewish Amerner group affecting these sort of policy negotiations. 385 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: You know, uh In my wife and I were invited 386 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: by del cast Vote to Cuba and we had dinner 387 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: with him one night, the two of us, he and 388 00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: his foreign minister or whatever, and and we we were 389 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: talking about what democracy was. And I interrupted him and 390 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 1: I said, you know, you don't understand that democracy is 391 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:16,640 Speaker 1: minorities rule. The Jewish American groups of the primary influence 392 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 1: on Middle East policy, the Greeks on Greek policy, the 393 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 1: aged on elder elderly. Um. The that's fascinating. That's acting 394 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: gun lobby, the gun hobby controlling guns. You look issued issue. 395 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 1: Who controls financial legislation, it's Wall Street. And that American 396 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: democracy is is minorities rule. What did he said? You see, 397 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,360 Speaker 1: that's what I'm talking about. You don't have a democracy. Yes, 398 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: I said, what we do because we have the power 399 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 1: to change the minorities who do rule, and that can't 400 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,679 Speaker 1: be done here in Cuba. You're the minority and you 401 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,040 Speaker 1: can't be changed. He's a minority of one versus versus 402 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: an open That's a fascinating, fascinating insight. What what else 403 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 1: took place in that conversation with Fidel Castro that was memorable, Well, 404 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 1: I think almost almost all of it was memorable, but 405 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: the sense that, look, he is a dictator and he's 406 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,400 Speaker 1: done some terrible things, and his brother running the country 407 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: also a dictator. Yes, and they put a lot of 408 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: innocent people away and there's no disregarding that. And they 409 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:32,640 Speaker 1: did foment revolutions and Latin America. Some people thought those 410 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: revolutions were good, others thought they were terrible. They certainly 411 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 1: weren't liked by the United States. So I'm not making 412 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 1: any excuses for Castro, but they they are really afraid 413 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 1: that the United States was going to conquer them, to 414 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 1: come attack them, and they had plenty of reason to 415 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: believe that. For Castro was well aware of all the 416 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: attempts that we made on his life. Um. Another meeting 417 00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,000 Speaker 1: we had was with the Cuban Chairman of the Joint 418 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,160 Speaker 1: Chiefs of their Joint chiefs Staff, who gave a long 419 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: spiel to my wife and me about how they believe 420 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 1: we were still going to attack them full scale Americans 421 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: still still to this day. And when he finished, I said, 422 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 1: I think there is no chance the United States of 423 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 1: America is going to invade Cuba. And then I gave 424 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: him the reasons why he started to cry. He stood 425 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: up like we being like tears. Yes, and he came 426 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 1: around the table to hug me. Really, you know, that's fascinating. 427 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,719 Speaker 1: I I don't believe that was an act. I believe 428 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: he really thought the United States was going to invade Cuba. 429 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 1: That that's absolutely amazing. So we're speaking with Dr leslie Gelb, 430 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 1: expert on foreign affairs. Let's shift a little bit to Iran. 431 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 1: I don't get the sense that any of the Mueller's 432 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: are gonna be hugging anyone from the United States anytime. 433 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 1: Own They won't. Molas are very dangerous guys, really sure 434 00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 1: they are. So who's driving the atomic desires in in Iran? 435 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,360 Speaker 1: I think that the Iranian people from everything we know, 436 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: from all the reporting we have going on in that country, 437 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 1: Iranian people support a peaceful nuclear program. Do they really 438 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 1: need that given their vast oil reserves, well they think 439 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 1: they do. Who we to say they don't. I think 440 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 1: we could legitimately say, not only do you have vast 441 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: oil reserves, you're in the middle of the desert near 442 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: the equator. If you want to set up solar farms, 443 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 1: you probably have more energy than you could ever consume 444 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 1: in a thousand years. Why on Earth would you need 445 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 1: a nuclear program except to build a bomb. They think 446 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 1: this is a cheap form of energy. They can They're 447 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 1: worried about being able to sell oil in the future 448 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 1: as energy um sources change. That's a fifty year concerned. 449 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 1: But they are concerned about it. Again, everything we know 450 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: from the reporting countrywide is that there is considerable support 451 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:13,080 Speaker 1: for having these nuclear peaceful programs. Uh. Not that the 452 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 1: people are calling for Iran to have nuclear weapon. There's 453 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,360 Speaker 1: no evidence of that at all. None, And even the Ayatollah, 454 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: who we don't like it. It really is a troublemaker, 455 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 1: keeps repeating they don't want to build a bomb. So 456 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 1: what do we think. I don't believe them, by the way, 457 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: I don't think a lot of people believe that claim. 458 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: What do we think the odds of this treaty actually 459 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: getting past doesn't require approval from the Senate. All they 460 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: could do is stop it. Do we think that this 461 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: is actually going to be put into effect, Chuck Schumer notwithstanding, Yeah, 462 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: I think that before Schumer announced his opposition, that they 463 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 1: did a vote count in the Senate and they came 464 00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 1: to the conclusion that a presidential veto two bring the 465 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 1: treaty into force would be sustained. So Schumer's vote was 466 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: not going to So there was a little political horse trading, 467 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 1: and well, I don't know if there was horse trading, 468 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 1: but Schumer could go ahead and make his announcement, which 469 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 1: I think wasn't based on much substance, uh, without fearing 470 00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 1: that he was going to kill the treaty off. And 471 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 1: and he's appealing to one of those minorities, the Jewish 472 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 1: American lobby that's been very vocal about this deal. They've 473 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 1: made it an enormous issue, and it's going to hurt 474 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: Israel's standing here in the United States, really, including with 475 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: people who oppose the agreement. It will because they've gone 476 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 1: too far in interfering in American politics. Benjamin net and 477 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 1: Yahoo speaking in the UN speaking to the on the 478 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,719 Speaker 1: floor of the Senate. You think that boomerang's back against 479 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,520 Speaker 1: Eventually it will hurt. Yes. So we talked briefly before 480 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 1: about oil, and let me pose a different foreign affairs question. 481 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: You know, the United States has been a huge importer 482 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 1: of oil for a long time, and now between what 483 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 1: we've found in the Gulf and fracking, and we're rapidly 484 00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 1: approaching the day where the US becomes energy independent. And 485 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 1: I'm not talking a century or many many decades. Sometime 486 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 1: in the next cold five to ten years, we're going 487 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 1: to become a net exporter of energy. When that happens, 488 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,160 Speaker 1: what does that do to our interests in the Middle East? 489 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 1: I hope, but lessons are interested in the Middle East 490 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: because I don't, as you could tell from other things 491 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: I've just said, place much hope or reliance on our 492 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:55,200 Speaker 1: Gulf state allies. They've done some great harm, and I 493 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 1: think we've you. When you say Gulf state allies, you 494 00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,959 Speaker 1: mean Saudi Arabia, Israel, and I don't mean Israel, just 495 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabidi Arabia, Guitar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and the like, 496 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,280 Speaker 1: the people who have funded these jihadis all over the world. 497 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 1: Where do you think the Taliban got their arms and 498 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 1: money from they got it from heaven. They didn't get 499 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 1: it from heaven. So with friends like these, who needs enemies? Indeed, 500 00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:23,919 Speaker 1: So if in the last thirty seconds we have if 501 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,720 Speaker 1: people want to find your writings, where's the best place 502 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 1: for them to to see your your views in your perspectives? 503 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 1: In two places. One is the Daily Beast. I've written 504 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,439 Speaker 1: a lot for them over the last eight or nine 505 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:43,279 Speaker 1: years or so. And in the National Interest magazine Fantastic, 506 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:47,240 Speaker 1: we've been speaking with Dr Leslie Gelb discussing foreign policy. 507 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,359 Speaker 1: If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and check out 508 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,239 Speaker 1: the podcast extras where we let the tape role and 509 00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 1: we continue the conversation. Uh. Check out my daily column 510 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,000 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg View dot com or follow me on Twitter 511 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:05,320 Speaker 1: at Ridhults. I'm Barry Ridhults. You've been listening to Masters 512 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: in Business on Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the podcast extras, 513 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 1: Dr Galb or Less. As you've asked me, Nicole, you 514 00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,720 Speaker 1: thank you so much for doing this. This is really 515 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,560 Speaker 1: absolutely fascinating to so many things I want to go over. 516 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,759 Speaker 1: We haven't even talked about what's happening with China. And 517 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,839 Speaker 1: their currency. We'll we'll get to that in a little bit. 518 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,800 Speaker 1: Let's go back to the Pentagon Papers, which we really 519 00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: just quickly touched on. Describe what that process was like 520 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 1: creating that, what sort of hell broke loose when the 521 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 1: Times got their hands on it, and what it meant 522 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,840 Speaker 1: for the Supreme Court to issue their no prior restraint decisions, 523 00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 1: if if if I'm remembering all those things, uh correctly. So, 524 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,319 Speaker 1: so let's start with creating the Pentagon Papers. What was 525 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,880 Speaker 1: that process like? Well, it's not like you hear about 526 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:03,840 Speaker 1: it because McNamara at first started the project to answer 527 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,960 Speaker 1: one questions that he and a few other people had 528 00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 1: set down about ten of those questions were historical and 529 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:17,719 Speaker 1: the others were about the pacification program, about the political 530 00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,399 Speaker 1: process and Saigon and could at work and so forth. 531 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 1: There were a hundred questions that one of his military 532 00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 1: aids wrote out by hand. Really yeah, and we were 533 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 1: to answer them. Then I put together a small group 534 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: and basically everyone agreed that we would give the same 535 00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: kind of bologny, superficial answers to these questions if we 536 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 1: just sat down to to write them and to get 537 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 1: some perspective on it. We ought to look at the 538 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 1: history of our involvement, sent a memo into McMurray said, 539 00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 1: go do it. Let the chips for where they made. 540 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 1: So we started to do these monographs, and basically the monographs, 541 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:01,840 Speaker 1: which very few people have read, are sort of straight 542 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 1: recounting of the issue. There's one on pacification that sort 543 00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: of tells you, document by document, summarizing them what the 544 00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 1: history of how we handled pacification was, or why we 545 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 1: made the decision to send in the Marines and March 546 00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:23,840 Speaker 1: and so forth. And the only sort of analytical parts 547 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:30,279 Speaker 1: of the Pentagon papers were the brief summary statements at 548 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:36,200 Speaker 1: the beginning of each monograph, which I took the creditor 549 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 1: blamed for in my transmission document. And I did so 550 00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 1: because most of our authors were military and they didn't 551 00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:48,360 Speaker 1: want to get stuck with having an opinion on this 552 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:53,319 Speaker 1: and that to their superiors. So I took responsibility for 553 00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:57,920 Speaker 1: writing all those analytical statements, which really weren't very analytical 554 00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 1: or very presumped she was they put more or less straightforward. 555 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:07,480 Speaker 1: So so within that, within the research and creation of 556 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,440 Speaker 1: depending on papers, the question that I mean. I was 557 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 1: born in sixty one the Vietnam War as a kid 558 00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,279 Speaker 1: was always a background there. And the question that to 559 00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,279 Speaker 1: this day I still can't answer is, so, why do 560 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,400 Speaker 1: we really go in there? What? What was the point? 561 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:26,000 Speaker 1: That was the key question because it applies today too. Look, 562 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,399 Speaker 1: Ellsberg created the impression that we got in because our 563 00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:33,520 Speaker 1: government lied to the American people about the stakes and 564 00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:37,120 Speaker 1: what was involved and why it was important. But that's 565 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:43,239 Speaker 1: just false. It's plain wrong, including Ellsberg himself. Ellsberg himself 566 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,719 Speaker 1: was a big supporter of the war through a good 567 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,600 Speaker 1: chunk of the sixties. He joined the Marines, he went 568 00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 1: over there, and he fought. Uh. The reason we got 569 00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:57,240 Speaker 1: involved in Vietnam, and it's critical that we understand it 570 00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:02,800 Speaker 1: for what we get into trouble with today. The reason 571 00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,959 Speaker 1: we got involved is we believed our way into the war. 572 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:11,479 Speaker 1: We saw Indo China as the cockpit of the war 573 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:17,719 Speaker 1: between Soviet Union, Chinese Communism against the United States of America. 574 00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 1: When you say we believed our way in, yes, we 575 00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,239 Speaker 1: thought the biggest threat to the United States was from 576 00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:29,959 Speaker 1: the from the Chinese Soviet Alliance and from World Communism. 577 00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:33,880 Speaker 1: And just as we saw Berlin as the major focal 578 00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,880 Speaker 1: point for this in Europe, we saw Indo China as 579 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:41,880 Speaker 1: the make major focal point in Asia, and people believe 580 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 1: we had to stop. I hardly knew anybody in the 581 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:49,440 Speaker 1: foreign policy profession who differed with it, including Dan Ellsberg, 582 00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,919 Speaker 1: including my buddy David Halperstan. His nineteen sixty four book 583 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 1: The Making of a Quagmire ends with a chapter that 584 00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:02,800 Speaker 1: is the best argument for the domino theory I've ever read. Really, Yeah, 585 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,479 Speaker 1: so we believed our way into the war. But wait, 586 00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:09,279 Speaker 1: so he argues for the domino theory, meaning that if 587 00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 1: we don't stop them here, it'll be country after country 588 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,880 Speaker 1: until it's at our doorstep. And yet the book is 589 00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:19,040 Speaker 1: about in ninety four. That's pretty early to say, hey, 590 00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,920 Speaker 1: Vietnam is going to be a quagmire and and for 591 00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,239 Speaker 1: the next decade it was. Indeed it was, and how 592 00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 1: important it was to win that David's views changed over time, 593 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,960 Speaker 1: David Albert stamps Uh has did mine. I was a 594 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:36,360 Speaker 1: supporter of the war. I didn't know anything about Vietnam, 595 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:38,360 Speaker 1: but to me, it was the crunch point in the 596 00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:42,800 Speaker 1: battle against communism, and it took a long time for 597 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 1: me to evolve. It took a very long time for 598 00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:50,280 Speaker 1: my foreign policy profession to evolve because we believed in it. 599 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 1: The same thing happened with how we fight Afghanistan or 600 00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:57,239 Speaker 1: how we fight Iraq. We believe our way into these 601 00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:03,360 Speaker 1: wars because we make these decisions without knowing about the 602 00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:07,960 Speaker 1: countries were getting involved in. You know, on Vietnam, I 603 00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,840 Speaker 1: had read one book. I wrote a good many of 604 00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,520 Speaker 1: the memos of the Secretary Defense to the President of 605 00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,200 Speaker 1: the United States when I was Director of Policy Planning 606 00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,560 Speaker 1: in the Pentagon. And I had read one book on Vietnam, 607 00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,960 Speaker 1: Bernard Falls the Two Vietnams, and that was more than 608 00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,640 Speaker 1: most people they had read. We have no knowledge of 609 00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,200 Speaker 1: the place. The same applied to Afghanistan. The same applied 610 00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,480 Speaker 1: to Iraq. All of a sudden, we throw in the 611 00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:39,879 Speaker 1: troops as if force is going to solve centuries of culture, politics, 612 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:45,120 Speaker 1: and internal problems, and it never does. So, so let's 613 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,160 Speaker 1: I want to come back to Iraq in a minute. 614 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:53,279 Speaker 1: Let's let's stay with Vietnam for a second. So if 615 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,239 Speaker 1: the theory is that we're containing communism and therefore we 616 00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,400 Speaker 1: have to project power all around the world to prevent 617 00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 1: the domino theory, doesn't that say we really don't have 618 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 1: a belief, a strong belief in our own system of 619 00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:12,440 Speaker 1: capitalism and free markets and open trade isn't because that's 620 00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:17,800 Speaker 1: how I always I am astonished at the stop communism argument. Well, 621 00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:22,080 Speaker 1: if our system is so vastly superior, and I think 622 00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:28,160 Speaker 1: history has shown that it is, why can't we allow 623 00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:32,839 Speaker 1: the system itself to support itself. Why can't the benefits 624 00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:37,840 Speaker 1: of free markets stand on their own without military invention? 625 00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:43,560 Speaker 1: Interventions all around the world creating this very very different 626 00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:48,480 Speaker 1: sort of battle. It's an economic battle, not a military battle. 627 00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:50,879 Speaker 1: Or is that the wrong way to look at this? Well, 628 00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,920 Speaker 1: it depends on the country. In the case of Vietnam, 629 00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:59,160 Speaker 1: it was nationalism that we were fighting. That was the 630 00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,640 Speaker 1: root cause of you know, I was very close to 631 00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:07,719 Speaker 1: an army officer went out and commanded an air cavalry 632 00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:11,800 Speaker 1: battalion in one of the main battles that was fought 633 00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,280 Speaker 1: in the central highlands of Vietnam. When you say air cavalry, 634 00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:21,480 Speaker 1: I think of apocalypse now, helicopters round troops. And he 635 00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:23,880 Speaker 1: was the commander of a battalion who was a lieutenant 636 00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:27,120 Speaker 1: colonel at the time, and he wrote me a note 637 00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:30,680 Speaker 1: I was working for Javits at the time, Roman notes, 638 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:35,960 Speaker 1: saying we we just had first major battle with North 639 00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:40,759 Speaker 1: Vietnamese forces in the central Highlands of South Vietnam. And 640 00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,360 Speaker 1: I can't tell you how proud I was of of 641 00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,719 Speaker 1: my troops, how well they fought, with such skill and 642 00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:52,480 Speaker 1: such courage. There was only one problem. The North Vietnamese 643 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:56,840 Speaker 1: fought better. And there are only two explanations for this. 644 00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,680 Speaker 1: One as they were on dope, and the other is 645 00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,640 Speaker 1: they were on nationalism. And if they were on nationalism, 646 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:08,160 Speaker 1: boy are we going to have trouble. They're defending their 647 00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,560 Speaker 1: own home country and there's an advantage to that. And 648 00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,840 Speaker 1: Ho Chi Man was regarded by many Vietnamese as the 649 00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:19,160 Speaker 1: father of Vietnamese nationalism. Uh you know, I don't like 650 00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:23,479 Speaker 1: his communist system or anything like that, but he had 651 00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:27,880 Speaker 1: the monopoly of nationalism not only in the North but 652 00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:31,680 Speaker 1: in the south with the Vietnamese VIETNAMIN forces who were 653 00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:35,839 Speaker 1: also backing him. And when that's what you have going 654 00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,120 Speaker 1: for you, it's hard to deal with it. Look at 655 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:44,759 Speaker 1: at Syria today, you have these fanatics fighting and the 656 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:50,160 Speaker 1: people we trained for years in Iraq and armed with 657 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:54,920 Speaker 1: the best of armaments. As soon as the ISIS attacked them, 658 00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,840 Speaker 1: they dropped their arms, they took their uniforms, off and 659 00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:01,800 Speaker 1: ran away. So so let's supply the lessons of Vietnam 660 00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:07,160 Speaker 1: to Iraq. First question is the same question as Vietnam. 661 00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:11,000 Speaker 1: Why do we go into Iraq? Nobody really believes the 662 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:14,919 Speaker 1: weapons of mass destruction? That was well, I wouldn't say that. 663 00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,520 Speaker 1: That's so, you know, I was. I was very friendly 664 00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:21,600 Speaker 1: with George Tennant, who was the director of the CIA 665 00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:25,319 Speaker 1: at the time, and I asked them outright at the time, Uh, 666 00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,400 Speaker 1: do we have a smoking gun on the weapons of 667 00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,400 Speaker 1: mass destruction? And he said, no, we don't have a 668 00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,000 Speaker 1: smoking gun, but all of us very much believed that 669 00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:39,200 Speaker 1: they do have these weapons of mass destruction programs. Believed 670 00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:41,279 Speaker 1: our way into another war is that is that we 671 00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:46,520 Speaker 1: just believe it because here Saddam had attacked Iran. We 672 00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:48,880 Speaker 1: didn't like Iran, but they attacked them, and it was 673 00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:53,760 Speaker 1: a seven year war, and they used chemical weapons against Iran. 674 00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:57,640 Speaker 1: They've been using chemical weapons though for a long long time. Well, 675 00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,319 Speaker 1: they did have a record of it. They also use 676 00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:04,960 Speaker 1: chemical weapons against their own Kurdish people. And they had 677 00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:07,799 Speaker 1: just invaded Kuwait and we had to fight to kick 678 00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:14,320 Speaker 1: him out of Kuwait. George W. George H. Wright, so 679 00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,080 Speaker 1: we knew he was hostile. We knew he was aggressive, right, 680 00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:21,920 Speaker 1: and there was genuine concern that he had these weapons 681 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:26,319 Speaker 1: of mass destruction? Was their proof? No, but there was 682 00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:32,560 Speaker 1: enough evidence floating around in combination with his behavior over 683 00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:36,239 Speaker 1: the previous ten years plus to make people feel you 684 00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:40,160 Speaker 1: had to go after him. Now, they didn't take the 685 00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:44,360 Speaker 1: next step which they must must take in order to 686 00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,600 Speaker 1: have a rational policy, and saying, then, what are we 687 00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,439 Speaker 1: going to do? What are we going to conduct this war? 688 00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,960 Speaker 1: Nobody doubts for a second that the United States military 689 00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:57,160 Speaker 1: isn't gonna steamroll over the National Guard. But after that, 690 00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,759 Speaker 1: and now, the current thesis that I keep hearing is 691 00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:07,800 Speaker 1: ISIS is essentially the reconstituted uh Saddam troops and weaponry 692 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,680 Speaker 1: that laid low for a few We don't even know that, 693 00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:15,319 Speaker 1: we know that some of Saddam's officers are involved with them, 694 00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,960 Speaker 1: but that these are you know, Sunnis who escaped from 695 00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:22,200 Speaker 1: Iraq and are now Syrians fighting for ISIS. I think 696 00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:26,840 Speaker 1: that's exaggerated. So so this brings us back to the 697 00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:31,319 Speaker 1: original question. September eleven happens in in two thousand and one, 698 00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:36,120 Speaker 1: we go after Afghanistan, which is where these attacks um come. 699 00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:38,680 Speaker 1: From By the way, you mentioned our friends, the Saudis 700 00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:43,920 Speaker 1: funded a lot of the uh not only the Taliban, 701 00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:48,200 Speaker 1: but a lot of the hijackers themselves were Saudies, so 702 00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,399 Speaker 1: so they were very much involved. So we go into 703 00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:55,799 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and then somehow not to by two thousand and 704 00:47:55,880 --> 00:48:00,960 Speaker 1: three we tax some some how we change and shift 705 00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:05,600 Speaker 1: our focus to Iraq. It was was that a prudent 706 00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:11,359 Speaker 1: either foreign policy or military response to where we were 707 00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,600 Speaker 1: at the time. It was dumb, and I endorsed it 708 00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:17,440 Speaker 1: at the time. So you you you indorsed it, but 709 00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,160 Speaker 1: now you're saying that was after three months, and I 710 00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:24,719 Speaker 1: saw it. That's the fastest reversal of everybody was. It 711 00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,600 Speaker 1: was fast. But I was for it initially, and when 712 00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,000 Speaker 1: it was clear they didn't have the weapons of mass destruction, 713 00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:32,600 Speaker 1: I opposed it. And on top of it, I saw 714 00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:34,799 Speaker 1: we had no idea what we were doing. There been 715 00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,000 Speaker 1: no plan for fighting the war. That that's so so 716 00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:41,360 Speaker 1: it seems, you know, it's it's funny. There's a joke 717 00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:47,000 Speaker 1: about people in finance and and it it's essentially says 718 00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:53,200 Speaker 1: um no tour people in finance or notorious for refusing 719 00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:57,680 Speaker 1: to learn from experience in history, But I it sounds 720 00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:02,400 Speaker 1: like finance people don't really hold candle to military people, 721 00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:06,799 Speaker 1: nothing like foreign policy people and making mistakes, the same 722 00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:10,920 Speaker 1: mistakes over and again, which is why over time I 723 00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:16,200 Speaker 1: developed the philosophy that guides me and thinking about foreign affairs, 724 00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:20,000 Speaker 1: that you're going to make the mistakes, they're inevitable, podcasts 725 00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:24,160 Speaker 1: smart you want because we're involved in various parts of 726 00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,839 Speaker 1: the world where our knowledge is slight and where our 727 00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:31,799 Speaker 1: power doesn't add up to our desires, and we're going 728 00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,440 Speaker 1: to make mistakes. And the most important thing you can 729 00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:38,080 Speaker 1: do is keep your mind open to the possibility that 730 00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,839 Speaker 1: you did make a mistake, so that you can see 731 00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:45,719 Speaker 1: it and fix it and not caused the blunders and 732 00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:50,279 Speaker 1: the suffering that we do when we persist in our mistakes. So, 733 00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,680 Speaker 1: speaking of persisting in mistakes, let me ask you a question, 734 00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:58,000 Speaker 1: which was worse the errors in Vietnam or the errors 735 00:49:58,000 --> 00:50:05,560 Speaker 1: in Iraq? Um? I think Vietnam really was. You know, 736 00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:09,920 Speaker 1: we we lost over fifty thousand men killed ten times 737 00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,400 Speaker 1: what we lost in Iraq. And people forget, but we 738 00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:17,680 Speaker 1: had five hundred and fifty thousand troops in Vietnam and 739 00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,680 Speaker 1: nearly old draftees not a whole lot of voluntary conscripts. 740 00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:26,320 Speaker 1: That's a very different war than sending a hundred thousand 741 00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:30,400 Speaker 1: people who were volunteers to another contra. Absolutely, and the 742 00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:35,239 Speaker 1: ramifications domestically to the Vietnam War looks like it was very, 743 00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:40,480 Speaker 1: very significant. Iraq has created some pushback, but nothing like 744 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:43,759 Speaker 1: what we saw in the nineteen sixties. I think that's right. 745 00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:48,280 Speaker 1: Sixties really was a revolution inside the United States, and frankly, 746 00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:52,400 Speaker 1: I think it caused a lot of people, two good people, 747 00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,520 Speaker 1: to stay away from politics. I think the quality of 748 00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:59,440 Speaker 1: people who run for office today hold office today are 749 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,080 Speaker 1: as good as were when I was a young man 750 00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:06,560 Speaker 1: in Washington. You know, it's funny. Let's let's shift gears 751 00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:09,759 Speaker 1: and talk about politics a little bit. So. I grew 752 00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:13,760 Speaker 1: up in Nassau County out in Long Island, very Republican area, 753 00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:18,719 Speaker 1: and Jacob Javits was my senator. And whenever I try 754 00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,600 Speaker 1: and describe and and people on the left and right, 755 00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,880 Speaker 1: none of my friends believe me. But it's absolutely true. 756 00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:29,279 Speaker 1: I described myself as a Jacob Javits Republican all right, 757 00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:33,960 Speaker 1: And four quick bullet points, low taxes, balance budgets, no 758 00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,640 Speaker 1: overseas adventures, and keep the government out of people's bedrooms. 759 00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:41,000 Speaker 1: It's pretty pretty fair statement those four uhs, because he 760 00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,440 Speaker 1: actually was pretty much of a hawk on foreign policy. 761 00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:48,040 Speaker 1: He was a big supporter of the Vietnam War. Well, 762 00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,560 Speaker 1: when I got to when I learned who he was, 763 00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:55,319 Speaker 1: he had reversed himself and following the Vietnam War, I 764 00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:59,080 Speaker 1: recall him saying things like, look, if we're gonna project powerful, 765 00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,560 Speaker 1: gonna go to war overs ease, it can't be for 766 00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:04,279 Speaker 1: some abstract theory. It has to be to protect uh, 767 00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:07,600 Speaker 1: the United States and not so I didn't. I was 768 00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:09,720 Speaker 1: too young to know him when he was a hawk. 769 00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:15,000 Speaker 1: I knew him as no overseas misadventures. Yeah, he became 770 00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:18,719 Speaker 1: the author of the of the law that sort of 771 00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:24,440 Speaker 1: gave Congress a chance to say no to momentary involvement 772 00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,560 Speaker 1: after thirty days. That that's how I know him, as 773 00:52:27,560 --> 00:52:29,960 Speaker 1: opposed to maybe how he began when I when I 774 00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:34,080 Speaker 1: was a uch much younger child. But the funny thing 775 00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:41,360 Speaker 1: about that corner of politics, that on the spectrum a 776 00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:47,080 Speaker 1: fiscally conservative, socially progressive, call its center right political position. 777 00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:50,759 Speaker 1: You can't find that amongst the Republicans anymore. The whole 778 00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:55,240 Speaker 1: spectrum has shifted so much that what was once a 779 00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:58,839 Speaker 1: center right possession position now seems like it's a left 780 00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:02,719 Speaker 1: wing position. Uh so, what does that say? How much 781 00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:06,799 Speaker 1: of that traces to the reaction the pushback to to 782 00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:14,160 Speaker 1: Vietnam socially and just the parties becoming more extreme and 783 00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:18,800 Speaker 1: from my perspective formally thinking I'm center right and suddenly 784 00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,719 Speaker 1: finding myself center left. To me, it looks like the 785 00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,680 Speaker 1: right wing has gotten the left wing has gotten some 786 00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:29,120 Speaker 1: extreme elements, but the right wing looks like it's really 787 00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:34,239 Speaker 1: tacked to an extreme um political position, some of which 788 00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:40,319 Speaker 1: is the Reagan Coalition starting to fracture and people um 789 00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:45,080 Speaker 1: really tacking to that far right base to to get 790 00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,399 Speaker 1: we see it in the primary part. By the way, 791 00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,400 Speaker 1: that's the most you're gonna hear me say about anything 792 00:53:50,480 --> 00:53:53,759 Speaker 1: this whole interview. But I'm really curious as to your 793 00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,839 Speaker 1: view on how the this political spectrum in the United 794 00:53:56,840 --> 00:54:00,239 Speaker 1: States has shifted. We always had nuts on the left 795 00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:04,520 Speaker 1: in the right. When I worked for for Javits, they 796 00:54:04,560 --> 00:54:08,080 Speaker 1: were there, to be sure, but they were kind of marginals. 797 00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:11,319 Speaker 1: The difference not that they were marginalized, it's that they 798 00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:16,640 Speaker 1: were what I would call five or so national interest 799 00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:21,120 Speaker 1: senators of both parties who if an issue were really important, 800 00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:24,680 Speaker 1: would put politics aside and try to get something done. 801 00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,839 Speaker 1: So if it was critical and you needed a law 802 00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:30,919 Speaker 1: pass that in order to solve a problem, they would 803 00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:33,359 Speaker 1: get together and do it. So what happened to that 804 00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:38,360 Speaker 1: it disappeared. You see, they all left party first, so Bradley, 805 00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:45,640 Speaker 1: Sam Nun etcetera, etcetera, youth, centrist, moderate, they all left 806 00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:49,600 Speaker 1: the place because they got totally frustrated with American politics. 807 00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:52,239 Speaker 1: And it began at the time of the Vietnam War. 808 00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:56,440 Speaker 1: The people who unfortunately didn't get frustrated with the extremists, 809 00:54:56,480 --> 00:55:00,600 Speaker 1: particularly on the right. Uh, they decided that this was 810 00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:04,400 Speaker 1: their great opportunity to go in and control politics. And 811 00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:10,320 Speaker 1: they've been fairly successful. Yeah, including in defeating moderate conservatives. 812 00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:15,879 Speaker 1: Which is astonishing to think that that battle between the 813 00:55:15,960 --> 00:55:19,520 Speaker 1: right and the far right is being won by the 814 00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:24,240 Speaker 1: far right. That's not usually it's always been the center 815 00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,600 Speaker 1: holds and and that's where the power lays, but that 816 00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:29,360 Speaker 1: seems to be changing. They want it hands down, except 817 00:55:29,400 --> 00:55:34,239 Speaker 1: for presidential nominees. Reagan being the exception people bring up, 818 00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,839 Speaker 1: and in fact, Reagan was not a crazy right wing 819 00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:41,520 Speaker 1: president at all. He was a conservative president. The argument 820 00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:44,600 Speaker 1: is not by any means. The argument is that Reagan 821 00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:48,360 Speaker 1: couldn't get nominated today. I don't think he could. That's 822 00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:54,560 Speaker 1: an astonishing, that's an astonishing He raised repeatedly. Well, let's 823 00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:57,279 Speaker 1: he first, he had a huge tax cut. He took 824 00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:00,239 Speaker 1: that top rate way down. He got rid of all 825 00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:04,000 Speaker 1: those crazy you know, tax shelters and real estate shelters 826 00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,919 Speaker 1: and all those things, which is why some guy named 827 00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:09,359 Speaker 1: Donald Trump was not happy with him way back when 828 00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:16,600 Speaker 1: UM but slowly raised taxes to balance the budget. You know, 829 00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:20,320 Speaker 1: today you have the pledge UM, you have Grover Norquest. 830 00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:25,200 Speaker 1: You so that center right moderate or or even just 831 00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:28,799 Speaker 1: ordinary conservative, they don't seem to really be finding a 832 00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:35,320 Speaker 1: voice UM in politics today, interestingly divided on foreign policy 833 00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:40,919 Speaker 1: national security, where you have the Tea Party guys like 834 00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:46,759 Speaker 1: the Polls who tend to be touch isolationists very much. 835 00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:51,520 Speaker 1: In fact, he isis caused Rand Paul to back off 836 00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:55,279 Speaker 1: of that UM. But they're very much isolationists. And I 837 00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:58,680 Speaker 1: respect the hey, we're spending way too much on the 838 00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:03,799 Speaker 1: military argument from on Paul Um. Rand Paul seems to 839 00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:06,360 Speaker 1: have less of a commitment to that than his father 840 00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:10,680 Speaker 1: did less because he's running for president and he thinks 841 00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:13,040 Speaker 1: he's got to modify it for that. I think for 842 00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:16,640 Speaker 1: that reason is Dad ran for president and never changed anything. 843 00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,280 Speaker 1: Dad was more of a true believer. So so let's 844 00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:25,000 Speaker 1: see he's to say the least. So so let's come 845 00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:28,800 Speaker 1: back to um, the Middle East policy. We we talked 846 00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:33,600 Speaker 1: about Iraq, Um, what's going to happen with our relations 847 00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:39,680 Speaker 1: going forward with Israel? Um? Are they going to be 848 00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:42,400 Speaker 1: chasened by their overreaches there? Are they going to have 849 00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:46,040 Speaker 1: a possible change of leadership? What what happens? There's no 850 00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:51,520 Speaker 1: chance of a change in leadership position inside Israel, and 851 00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:56,800 Speaker 1: there is overwhelming opposition within Israel through this agreement with Iran, 852 00:57:57,920 --> 00:58:03,320 Speaker 1: and none of that is going to change. Obama has 853 00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:09,200 Speaker 1: tried to compensate by offering Israel some arms, some high 854 00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,040 Speaker 1: tech arms that he had previously denied them, but that's 855 00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:15,240 Speaker 1: not going to change their mind about any of this. 856 00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:20,080 Speaker 1: And we're going to go through a few years of 857 00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:27,600 Speaker 1: just very nasty talk from Israeli leadership about Democrats because 858 00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:31,960 Speaker 1: of their support for this. Hillary is trying to avoid 859 00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:35,840 Speaker 1: it by as usual, not taking a position strong position 860 00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:38,720 Speaker 1: on it, but you'll you'll get a lot of anti 861 00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:43,960 Speaker 1: democratic feeling from Israelis as far as American Jews are concerned. 862 00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:52,880 Speaker 1: The polls show SI are in favor of with Iran 863 00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:59,840 Speaker 1: and about twenty are posted very much against it. So 864 00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:07,080 Speaker 1: if you have six of US Jews disagreeing with Israeli's 865 00:59:07,160 --> 00:59:10,760 Speaker 1: supporting President Obama, what does that mean for the odds 866 00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:17,360 Speaker 1: of this policy, this, this um treaty actually becoming the 867 00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:20,040 Speaker 1: law of the land. Well, I I think it will. 868 00:59:20,480 --> 00:59:23,040 Speaker 1: At least the people who do the vote atting say 869 00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:26,560 Speaker 1: that a presidential veto will be sustained in the Senate. 870 00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:29,080 Speaker 1: I don't know about the House, but in the Senate 871 00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:31,479 Speaker 1: that's really the only place that matters. If you can't 872 00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:35,480 Speaker 1: override into both houses, that's it. This becomes law. Is 873 00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:38,840 Speaker 1: there any chance down the road that there's a detant 874 00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:43,560 Speaker 1: between Israel and Iran? Is that something that's possible not 875 00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:47,640 Speaker 1: for a long time to come. Look, I've spent a 876 00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:51,760 Speaker 1: good deal of my life working on arms control, even 877 00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,360 Speaker 1: though I didn't believe arms control was arms control. I 878 00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:59,560 Speaker 1: think arms control was managing relations with an adversary. And 879 00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:01,760 Speaker 1: if you look at the history of all the arms 880 01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:08,400 Speaker 1: control treaties we reached. They didn't solve the problems. They 881 01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:13,280 Speaker 1: minimize the problems to varying degrees. They lessen the problem, 882 01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,920 Speaker 1: or they put the most serious problems off into the 883 01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:20,440 Speaker 1: future where there was a better chance of managing them. 884 01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:24,920 Speaker 1: We've kind of forgotten that arms control agreements are not 885 01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:31,800 Speaker 1: agreements of surrender by one party to another. You're you're 886 01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:34,160 Speaker 1: trying to bargain with another state that has its own 887 01:00:34,200 --> 01:00:37,040 Speaker 1: interests and it's not going to give certain things up, 888 01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:40,760 Speaker 1: and you make agreements to lessen the threat, which this 889 01:00:40,880 --> 01:00:45,800 Speaker 1: agreement absolutely does. Even the critics say the main point 890 01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:49,560 Speaker 1: is well inten to fifteen years, they can decide they 891 01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:53,120 Speaker 1: don't want to abide by this anymore. It's a long 892 01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:58,440 Speaker 1: time as opposed to Tuesday exactly, And that's the central 893 01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:01,400 Speaker 1: point to keep making the people. But it's hard to 894 01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:05,360 Speaker 1: get through when the hysteria has reached the proportions it has. 895 01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:08,640 Speaker 1: There certainly are histrionics coming out, and it's a coming 896 01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:12,760 Speaker 1: up on a presidential election year, which just amplifies that 897 01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:15,880 Speaker 1: even more. All Right, so let's let's shift gears and 898 01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:17,720 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take you to a different part of the world. 899 01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:23,080 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Russia and the Ukraine. So you had 900 01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:28,680 Speaker 1: said previously that they had set up Russian Ukrainian speaking 901 01:01:28,760 --> 01:01:34,000 Speaker 1: Russians and special forces within Ukraine, and we're fomenting civil 902 01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:39,160 Speaker 1: descent the Russians. What's their endgame? What does Putin want? 903 01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:42,240 Speaker 1: He got Crimea, what does he want from Ukraine? Yeah? 904 01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:47,040 Speaker 1: I think what what he wants is to establish Russia 905 01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:51,160 Speaker 1: again as a major power and wants to be treated 906 01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,880 Speaker 1: as a as a major power. Is Putin not treated 907 01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:57,160 Speaker 1: as a major power. I think that there's a lot 908 01:01:57,280 --> 01:02:01,600 Speaker 1: to show from a Russian point of you that we 909 01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:05,040 Speaker 1: diminished them, and we diminished them in all sorts of ways, 910 01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:11,720 Speaker 1: certainly economically economically, including in Ukraine, where the Europeans made 911 01:02:11,720 --> 01:02:15,800 Speaker 1: a proposal in effect to incorporate Ukraine into the European 912 01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:21,440 Speaker 1: economy and push Russia aside. It's intolerable to give a 913 01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:25,560 Speaker 1: caution history and to somebody like Putin. The central thing 914 01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:28,960 Speaker 1: about Russians and foreign policy for hundreds of years is 915 01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:33,200 Speaker 1: they like to flex their muscles. They like to be 916 01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:36,200 Speaker 1: the great power, they like to be treated like the boss. 917 01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:40,040 Speaker 1: And they lost the Cold War. The country was diminished 918 01:02:40,040 --> 01:02:45,760 Speaker 1: in size and in power all these respects and then 919 01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:49,760 Speaker 1: you know, here we do this with Ukraine. We bring 920 01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:52,720 Speaker 1: the Baltic States into NATO. These are states that used 921 01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:56,080 Speaker 1: to be part of the Soviet Union and now they're 922 01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:59,720 Speaker 1: under NATO. Uh. It looked like we were going to 923 01:02:59,760 --> 01:03:03,200 Speaker 1: bring in Georgia and Ukraine, and Tonedo was as well. 924 01:03:03,560 --> 01:03:06,240 Speaker 1: And I think Putin has been fighting against all of this. 925 01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:09,560 Speaker 1: Now I wouldn't give him the right. These countries don't 926 01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:13,439 Speaker 1: belong to this, but as a great power, he has 927 01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:16,080 Speaker 1: a right to a say in those countries and what 928 01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:20,240 Speaker 1: happens there, just as we would have a right, uh 929 01:03:20,280 --> 01:03:23,760 Speaker 1: to to what happens in our hemisphere. People have forgotten 930 01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:27,760 Speaker 1: about the Monroe Doctrine, which is a pretty blatant assertion 931 01:03:27,800 --> 01:03:31,040 Speaker 1: of US authority and rights in the hemisphere. What if 932 01:03:31,120 --> 01:03:34,640 Speaker 1: China would open up military bases in Mexico, what do 933 01:03:34,680 --> 01:03:37,480 Speaker 1: you think we would do about that? We would go insane. 934 01:03:38,760 --> 01:03:42,040 Speaker 1: So you have to understand it from Putin's point of view. 935 01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:45,440 Speaker 1: The second thing you have to understand is that on 936 01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:51,960 Speaker 1: their western borders, Russia has military superiority over the United 937 01:03:51,960 --> 01:03:55,920 Speaker 1: States and the West. You see, people don't know that though, 938 01:03:56,600 --> 01:04:01,280 Speaker 1: um about World War two of Germans. If they weren't. 939 01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:04,120 Speaker 1: If Hitler didn't attack Russia, the outcome could have been 940 01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:07,720 Speaker 1: very different, There's no question about it. But here today 941 01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:10,720 Speaker 1: people think, you know, Russia is on its knees on 942 01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:17,360 Speaker 1: its borders western western borders with Ukraine. Yes, aircraft, air defenses, whatnot. 943 01:04:17,840 --> 01:04:22,600 Speaker 1: A couple of months ago, the the Supreme Allied Commander 944 01:04:22,600 --> 01:04:27,720 Speaker 1: for NATO, General Breedlove Americans. Sure. He was on Christian 945 01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:31,880 Speaker 1: almanpor on CNN on CNN, and he was saying this 946 01:04:32,000 --> 01:04:36,360 Speaker 1: to her, that they have a massive military on the 947 01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:39,680 Speaker 1: border and they can trump us militarily whatever we do. 948 01:04:39,760 --> 01:04:41,920 Speaker 1: We want to put a more eight to Ukraine, they 949 01:04:41,920 --> 01:04:45,920 Speaker 1: can put in even more to their supporters in eastern Ukraine. 950 01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:49,480 Speaker 1: You want to start shooting bullets, they can shoot more 951 01:04:49,520 --> 01:04:52,720 Speaker 1: bullets right on their borders. Beyond their borders, we have 952 01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:56,000 Speaker 1: the superiority. But on their borders they've got it. And 953 01:04:56,120 --> 01:05:02,600 Speaker 1: Christian responded when he was finished, Wow, no idea, no idea, 954 01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:05,600 Speaker 1: She said, wow if you if you know World War 955 01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:08,760 Speaker 1: two history. And I don't call myself a military history buff, 956 01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:11,400 Speaker 1: but I read Keegan's book, and I read a lot 957 01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:16,000 Speaker 1: of the big um fascinating stories about what took place, 958 01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,760 Speaker 1: not too long ago. I was in St. Petersburg, you know, 959 01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:24,280 Speaker 1: you see some of the old memorials and what took 960 01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:33,360 Speaker 1: place there. Russia always has had a massive European looking 961 01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:36,320 Speaker 1: military force they have. Let me tell you the end 962 01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:40,080 Speaker 1: of that conversation. Now she says, wow, and then she says, 963 01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:42,680 Speaker 1: but then, what would you do about it? He said, well, 964 01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:45,080 Speaker 1: of course we've got to keep up our military strength, 965 01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:49,640 Speaker 1: but we need diplomacy. This is a general saying this 966 01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:54,200 Speaker 1: to the general, And I've had loads of conversations with 967 01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:57,920 Speaker 1: senior NATO generals. They all say the same thing. You 968 01:05:58,000 --> 01:06:01,800 Speaker 1: need diplomacy. You need to work a kind of relationship 969 01:06:02,320 --> 01:06:05,720 Speaker 1: with the Russians where they are treated like a major power. 970 01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:10,040 Speaker 1: You don't give them the Baltic States or Ukraine, but 971 01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:14,200 Speaker 1: you take their interest into account. Look, how do you 972 01:06:14,320 --> 01:06:17,720 Speaker 1: how do you judge where the Russia matters? Russia is 973 01:06:17,720 --> 01:06:21,320 Speaker 1: no longer a global superpower, but they are a great power. 974 01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:24,000 Speaker 1: And how do you measure that? You measure it in 975 01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:27,560 Speaker 1: terms of whether Russia can help or hurt us in 976 01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:31,200 Speaker 1: various parts of the world, and they can. Who can 977 01:06:31,280 --> 01:06:34,400 Speaker 1: help us more than any other country in dealing with 978 01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:38,400 Speaker 1: what's happening in Syria and Iraq. It's Russia fighting terrorism. 979 01:06:38,720 --> 01:06:42,000 Speaker 1: Russia has one of the best anti terrorist operations in 980 01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:48,000 Speaker 1: the world. Intelligence in terms of nuclear proliferation, Russia is 981 01:06:48,040 --> 01:06:51,120 Speaker 1: a major partner of ours. Look, they just didn't with Iran. 982 01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:55,720 Speaker 1: They by the way, fascinating the Russian interest in Iran 983 01:06:55,880 --> 01:07:00,120 Speaker 1: and how much they were really a key actor in 984 01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:03,760 Speaker 1: helping that treaty move forward. They were there, were central 985 01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:08,600 Speaker 1: to it. And in the case of their states on 986 01:07:08,640 --> 01:07:11,840 Speaker 1: their western borders, they can hurt us unless you have 987 01:07:11,880 --> 01:07:16,160 Speaker 1: some diplomacy that takes their interests into account, doesn't give 988 01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:20,520 Speaker 1: them control of these countries, but gives them a say 989 01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:23,080 Speaker 1: so that they're treated like a major power like we 990 01:07:23,120 --> 01:07:27,120 Speaker 1: would expect to be treated on our borders. So given 991 01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:30,720 Speaker 1: you know, if it would have been a president like 992 01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:35,760 Speaker 1: George Bush who wasn't a big believer in in diplomatic efforts, 993 01:07:36,360 --> 01:07:39,040 Speaker 1: I would say, well, of course we're not having any 994 01:07:39,120 --> 01:07:45,800 Speaker 1: luck with Russia. But the present administration I ran Cuba elsewhere. Um, 995 01:07:45,880 --> 01:07:49,000 Speaker 1: although we seem to not be very successful with China 996 01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:54,440 Speaker 1: on certain diplomatic efforts, why isn't this an administration recognizing 997 01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:59,200 Speaker 1: what generals like breed Love says, and and paying Look, 998 01:07:59,240 --> 01:08:02,920 Speaker 1: no one expect the United States to pay homage to Putin, 999 01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:07,880 Speaker 1: but it sounds like he's looking for some respects, some recognition, 1000 01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:12,400 Speaker 1: and some input into the decision making process. Given how 1001 01:08:12,400 --> 01:08:16,840 Speaker 1: helpful he was in Iran. Why aren't we having a 1002 01:08:16,880 --> 01:08:20,719 Speaker 1: better engagement and better relationship with Russia? A good question. 1003 01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:24,000 Speaker 1: There there are a lot of people inside even this administration, 1004 01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:28,120 Speaker 1: who think they can knock Russia to the floor. Well 1005 01:08:28,160 --> 01:08:31,200 Speaker 1: what's the upside of that? Why? Why? You know? I 1006 01:08:31,240 --> 01:08:34,680 Speaker 1: think they're just dead wrong. But there're people inside and 1007 01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:37,360 Speaker 1: people they consult on the outside who have this point 1008 01:08:37,360 --> 01:08:40,840 Speaker 1: of view, and not all generals agree with Breathlow, the 1009 01:08:40,880 --> 01:08:44,160 Speaker 1: new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and testifying before the 1010 01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,200 Speaker 1: Senate a few weeks ago, said the Russia is the 1011 01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:50,840 Speaker 1: biggest threat security threat of the United States. So you 1012 01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:53,720 Speaker 1: have people who say these things and then they don't 1013 01:08:53,760 --> 01:08:57,840 Speaker 1: say what they're going to do about it practically. Yeah, 1014 01:08:58,800 --> 01:09:04,160 Speaker 1: you know, the in St. Petersburg, there's a memorial to 1015 01:09:04,600 --> 01:09:10,000 Speaker 1: the civilians. During World War Two, the Germans encircled the city, 1016 01:09:10,040 --> 01:09:12,320 Speaker 1: which is really very much on the western border. It's 1017 01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:15,719 Speaker 1: long before they went deep into the Russian winter. Further 1018 01:09:15,840 --> 01:09:18,960 Speaker 1: further east, and they tried to starve the city out. 1019 01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:24,479 Speaker 1: And I'm trying to some ungodly number of civilians died 1020 01:09:24,520 --> 01:09:30,000 Speaker 1: in St. Petersburg, just insane, insane numbers. And the Russians, 1021 01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:34,559 Speaker 1: these are really tough people. They didn't it went a 1022 01:09:34,640 --> 01:09:36,920 Speaker 1: year or two. They didn't surrender, they didn't give up. 1023 01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:40,120 Speaker 1: They kept the Germans at bay. Not a lot of 1024 01:09:40,160 --> 01:09:44,400 Speaker 1: cities could have survived with the Germans put St. Petersburg through. 1025 01:09:44,800 --> 01:09:48,600 Speaker 1: Anyone who thinks that you're gonna just shove the Russians 1026 01:09:48,600 --> 01:09:52,360 Speaker 1: over and they're gonna topple, you just have to read 1027 01:09:52,479 --> 01:09:55,479 Speaker 1: military history. That ain't gonna happen. Do you need to 1028 01:09:55,479 --> 01:09:58,719 Speaker 1: go back to Napoleon. That's not gonna happen. But you see, 1029 01:09:58,720 --> 01:10:01,559 Speaker 1: it's not just it's not just to Russia. It's we 1030 01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:03,519 Speaker 1: thought we would do it with Cuba. We thought we 1031 01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:08,960 Speaker 1: could do it with Iran, and none of economic sanctions, 1032 01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:13,479 Speaker 1: political pressure, even military pressure did not bring these countries 1033 01:10:13,720 --> 01:10:17,040 Speaker 1: to their knees. And what do people want? Do they 1034 01:10:17,040 --> 01:10:19,280 Speaker 1: want to go to war with Iran? What do they 1035 01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:22,120 Speaker 1: think the consequences of that would be? Did we want 1036 01:10:22,120 --> 01:10:26,680 Speaker 1: to invade Cuba? Only some nuts wanted to invade Cuba. 1037 01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:29,200 Speaker 1: So I only have you for a couple more minutes. 1038 01:10:29,320 --> 01:10:32,120 Speaker 1: Let me go to some of my favorite few short 1039 01:10:32,200 --> 01:10:34,800 Speaker 1: questions that I ask all my guests, and then we'll 1040 01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:37,760 Speaker 1: we'll get you out of here on time. Um. So 1041 01:10:38,560 --> 01:10:43,400 Speaker 1: aside from Senator Javits, who were some of your early mentors, well, 1042 01:10:43,439 --> 01:10:47,439 Speaker 1: I would say Clark Clifford, who replaced McNamara's secretary Defense, 1043 01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:52,160 Speaker 1: was a a major influence in my life because he 1044 01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:57,360 Speaker 1: really brought home to me the importance of thinking through 1045 01:10:57,439 --> 01:11:01,439 Speaker 1: strategy before you made your first moves on any area 1046 01:11:01,520 --> 01:11:04,160 Speaker 1: of importance. And if it took two weeks to do 1047 01:11:04,240 --> 01:11:06,599 Speaker 1: it or whatever, you take that time to do it 1048 01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:09,879 Speaker 1: before you start moving. Otherwise you get you trap yourself. 1049 01:11:10,120 --> 01:11:12,760 Speaker 1: Sounds like it sounds like common sense, but it's pure 1050 01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:15,680 Speaker 1: common sense. But it isn't done. You can see it 1051 01:11:15,800 --> 01:11:21,080 Speaker 1: time and again and in decisions made by presidents after presidents. 1052 01:11:21,600 --> 01:11:25,240 Speaker 1: So aside from Clifford, let's let's talk a little more philosophy. 1053 01:11:25,280 --> 01:11:30,120 Speaker 1: What what thinkers influenced your approach to either foreign policy 1054 01:11:30,280 --> 01:11:35,400 Speaker 1: or or economics. Yeah, I would say the Realist school. 1055 01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:39,599 Speaker 1: Henry Kissinger was my PhD advisor, are really and I 1056 01:11:39,680 --> 01:11:43,519 Speaker 1: was his teaching fellow and his courses there. Uh. And 1057 01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:46,240 Speaker 1: and he's a realist. If if nothing, he's a realist. 1058 01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:51,240 Speaker 1: And I think that's basically the the framework I've adopted 1059 01:11:51,240 --> 01:11:54,080 Speaker 1: in dealing with the with the world. I believe in power. 1060 01:11:54,960 --> 01:11:58,080 Speaker 1: I don't think you get things done through what we 1061 01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:02,240 Speaker 1: like to call soft power. Uh, that we persuade people, 1062 01:12:02,280 --> 01:12:05,639 Speaker 1: we understand their interests better than they do. We think 1063 01:12:05,680 --> 01:12:08,800 Speaker 1: our values are going to get them to restrain themselves. 1064 01:12:09,080 --> 01:12:13,519 Speaker 1: It just doesn't happen. It doesn't happen. What happens is power, 1065 01:12:13,600 --> 01:12:16,640 Speaker 1: where you get people to do things or not to 1066 01:12:16,720 --> 01:12:21,120 Speaker 1: do things because you change their calculus about their interests, 1067 01:12:21,320 --> 01:12:24,280 Speaker 1: what they're gonna gain, what they're gonna lose. And if 1068 01:12:24,280 --> 01:12:27,240 Speaker 1: you can't affect that calculus, you're not going to be 1069 01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:29,719 Speaker 1: able to achieve what you want. Pure carrot and stick. 1070 01:12:30,360 --> 01:12:33,280 Speaker 1: It's pretty much that. Yes, So we talked about the 1071 01:12:33,360 --> 01:12:36,639 Speaker 1: shifts in in politics. What major shifts have you seen 1072 01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:40,080 Speaker 1: take place in diplomacy and are these a good thing 1073 01:12:40,280 --> 01:12:43,320 Speaker 1: or a bad thing? Yeah. I don't think we've adjusted 1074 01:12:43,400 --> 01:12:45,880 Speaker 1: to the world of the twenty one century US in 1075 01:12:45,920 --> 01:12:49,880 Speaker 1: the United States, our foreign policy mostly US really Yeah, 1076 01:12:49,960 --> 01:12:53,639 Speaker 1: because we have more responsibility than any anyone else. There's 1077 01:12:53,680 --> 01:12:57,120 Speaker 1: any any problem anywhere in the world, people immediately turned 1078 01:12:57,160 --> 01:13:01,160 Speaker 1: to the United States, and unfortunately, to often we try 1079 01:13:01,160 --> 01:13:04,040 Speaker 1: to go respond to it without knowing what they're doing, 1080 01:13:04,080 --> 01:13:09,240 Speaker 1: without thinking through a Clifford Clifford's approach, actually give it real, 1081 01:13:09,439 --> 01:13:14,799 Speaker 1: real thought. Um, what what are some of your favorite 1082 01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:18,719 Speaker 1: books that that have influenced either you're thinking or changed 1083 01:13:18,720 --> 01:13:23,200 Speaker 1: your mind about different aspects of FIGN policy. I think 1084 01:13:23,280 --> 01:13:28,679 Speaker 1: mainly history books. I try to immerse myself in history, 1085 01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:36,120 Speaker 1: mainly to see how things went wrong and on those 1086 01:13:36,160 --> 01:13:39,639 Speaker 1: few occasions, how they went right, to give myself more 1087 01:13:39,680 --> 01:13:45,840 Speaker 1: of a finger feel and intellectual appreciation of the difficulties 1088 01:13:46,520 --> 01:13:51,840 Speaker 1: of dealing with problems that you can't control, where you 1089 01:13:51,880 --> 01:13:56,120 Speaker 1: have to use your power, and the power can't make 1090 01:13:56,200 --> 01:13:58,680 Speaker 1: things in and in and of itself come out the 1091 01:13:58,680 --> 01:14:02,800 Speaker 1: way you want. Let me let me shift up my 1092 01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:07,160 Speaker 1: second to last question. I always ask people, um, what 1093 01:14:07,280 --> 01:14:11,000 Speaker 1: advice they'd give to a millennial or someone graduating college 1094 01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:16,240 Speaker 1: about their career. But let me ask you it slightly differently. Uh, 1095 01:14:16,479 --> 01:14:20,599 Speaker 1: someone comes to you just graduating career, graduating college and says, 1096 01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:25,880 Speaker 1: I'm interested in a career in in the State Department 1097 01:14:26,120 --> 01:14:29,760 Speaker 1: or foreign affairs or diplomacy. What sort of advice would 1098 01:14:29,760 --> 01:14:33,720 Speaker 1: you would you give them? I would say, first, demonstrate 1099 01:14:33,760 --> 01:14:36,400 Speaker 1: to your boss that you know how to get things done, 1100 01:14:37,280 --> 01:14:41,200 Speaker 1: which means you think through the strategy. I'm sensing a 1101 01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:45,120 Speaker 1: theme here. You think through his strategy and you figure 1102 01:14:45,160 --> 01:14:48,280 Speaker 1: out how to deal with people well enough to move 1103 01:14:48,320 --> 01:14:51,680 Speaker 1: the pieces along so that in whatever it takes a 1104 01:14:51,720 --> 01:14:55,200 Speaker 1: week or three months, your boss sees you've accomplished it. 1105 01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:58,519 Speaker 1: And if he sees that you're going to get ahead. 1106 01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:05,760 Speaker 1: LA question, what do you know today about foreign affairs, diplomacy, 1107 01:15:05,960 --> 01:15:10,760 Speaker 1: military power, economic might that you wish you knew when 1108 01:15:10,760 --> 01:15:20,320 Speaker 1: you began fifty years ago. I think, uh, that I 1109 01:15:20,840 --> 01:15:24,880 Speaker 1: should have had a better appreciation of what our power 1110 01:15:24,920 --> 01:15:28,280 Speaker 1: could accomplish in different places at different times, and what 1111 01:15:28,400 --> 01:15:32,120 Speaker 1: it could not accomplish. Limitations on the projection of and 1112 01:15:32,200 --> 01:15:34,400 Speaker 1: what you could do to what you could do what 1113 01:15:34,520 --> 01:15:38,880 Speaker 1: you couldn't do. Fantastic, Dr Gelb, thank you so much 1114 01:15:38,920 --> 01:15:41,800 Speaker 1: for being so generous with your time. There's so many 1115 01:15:41,840 --> 01:15:44,280 Speaker 1: things we didn't get to, but I know you have 1116 01:15:44,479 --> 01:15:47,920 Speaker 1: other places to go. Today we've been speaking with Dr 1117 01:15:48,040 --> 01:15:53,520 Speaker 1: Leslie Gelb on the impact of the economy and projections 1118 01:15:53,600 --> 01:15:57,360 Speaker 1: of power. If you enjoyed this conversation, look an inch 1119 01:15:57,439 --> 01:16:00,720 Speaker 1: high or lower on Apple iTunes and you'll see the 1120 01:16:00,720 --> 01:16:05,000 Speaker 1: other fifty or so shows we've done. Um be sure 1121 01:16:05,040 --> 01:16:09,120 Speaker 1: and check out my daily column on Bloomberg View dot com. 1122 01:16:09,120 --> 01:16:12,240 Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at rid Halts. I want to 1123 01:16:12,280 --> 01:16:14,679 Speaker 1: thank Mike bat Nick, my head of research, for helping 1124 01:16:14,760 --> 01:16:18,839 Speaker 1: us out. Charlie Volmer is our producer, and our engineer 1125 01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:22,599 Speaker 1: today is Matt Ryan. I'm Barry Rich Halts. You're listening 1126 01:16:22,600 --> 01:16:25,280 Speaker 1: to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.