Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and
Speaker 1: advice league dot com. Here's your host, Paul. Welcome to
Speaker 1: another edition of Fantasy Football Weekly, your number twenty seven,
Speaker 1: episode number two. I am Paul Charge and Guillotine Leagues
Speaker 1: dot Com. My co host today Matt Harrison from Shock
Speaker 1: Fantasy and Brian Johnson Guillotine Leagues dot Com. What's up, boys.
Speaker 1: Good to see it's great death preseason action in full
Speaker 1: force again, Because as much as people crap on preseason play,
Speaker 1: you get things like Romandre Stevenson opening opening eyes and
Speaker 1: Mac Jones looking competent, and you know, you get you
Speaker 1: get storylines that I love following and fantasy players care about.
Speaker 1: And in that vein, we're gonna touch on the biggest
Speaker 1: storyline over the last week for each of the thirty
Speaker 1: two teams. We're gonna later in the show hit on
Speaker 1: all the traits of a sleeper running back. I challenge
Speaker 1: Matt Harrison to look through years of data and identify
Speaker 1: what are the traits that helped sleeper running backs hit
Speaker 1: and challenge accepted. Challenge accepted. The Peacock Off. We will
Speaker 1: each have two bold predictions from our hosts. That will
Speaker 1: be a total of six bold predictions, and when they
Speaker 1: come right, we will theretis took a minute. The peacock
Speaker 1: was sleeping. I had to wake up the peak and
Speaker 1: you couldn't find your peacock. I'm in preseason for myself.
Speaker 1: Over here will we will unleash our sleepers of the
Speaker 1: week as well and answer three tough questions. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the training camps around the league, beginning with Matt
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are an Indie for joint
Speaker 1: practices this week. And I'm not even trying to make
Speaker 1: anyone on this show happy, but about a third of
Speaker 1: the stories from Panthers camp are talking about the connection
Speaker 1: between a certain quarterback and a certain tight end. Oh boy,
Speaker 1: Sam Darnald and Dan Arnold. The Darnold Arnold connection. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it looks like it's a thing, and we're seeing Dan
Speaker 1: Arnold is starting to get taken in fantasy drafts. But yeah,
Speaker 1: let's remember you've been wrong for two years. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: you know, let's save the two years. So yeah, yes,
Speaker 1: we're not. No, it was two years ago. I was
Speaker 1: telling you on this very show to d draft the
Speaker 1: guy named Darren Waller as the sleep summer Sleeper segment.
Speaker 1: So you've only been wrong for one calendar year on
Speaker 1: Dan Arnold. Is that what you're saying. I don't know
Speaker 1: what I was really necessarily wrong on. Yeah, pretty much
Speaker 1: did find the tape Oakland and not Oakland the Las
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders. Brian speaking of Darren Waller, what is up
Speaker 1: with Darren Waller? He hasn't practiced in like ten days.
Speaker 1: Kind of scary, but he's been around. I've seen him
Speaker 1: working on the sidelines and sweatpants. He's not it doesn't
Speaker 1: have a noticeable limp or anything like that. So we're
Speaker 1: gonna be optimistic with Darren Waller, but not practicing. Hopefully
Speaker 1: they're just being extra cautious with him. Obviously the offense
Speaker 1: revolves around Waller. Last year he led all tight ends
Speaker 1: and yards after the catch with five. How impressive is that?
Speaker 1: He's probably, I bet among all tight ends for total yards.
Speaker 1: He was like guards after It's like fourth or something. Well,
Speaker 1: Davante Adams led all wide receivers and yards after the
Speaker 1: catch with five. D eighty four. That's ten less yards
Speaker 1: and Darren Wallers yards after the catch. Yeah, it's pretty good,
Speaker 1: so pretty hopefully Waller is okay. He should be uh
Speaker 1: for the Packers. Aaron Jones is nursing hamstring injury. Don't
Speaker 1: be surprised if you don't see him at all in
Speaker 1: the preseason. In the eyes of many, the star of
Speaker 1: Packers camp is tight end Robert Tounyon. He's looked more explosive,
Speaker 1: He's getting opened down field more Aaron Rodgers. Obviously he's back.
Speaker 1: Tonyon is being underdrafted. In my personal opinion, Let's go
Speaker 1: to the Washington football team. Matt Um, You're not gonna
Speaker 1: like this one chart, but Stu Beard Ryan Fitzpatrick was
Speaker 1: asked about, you know, playing quarterback in Washington and he said,
Speaker 1: I'm playing on borrowed time. And Washington has also been
Speaker 1: saying that Taylor Heineke is an actual threat to steal
Speaker 1: this job from Ryan Fitzpatrick. I thought in the preseason
Speaker 1: game that on on Thursday night that Fitzpatrick looked pretty
Speaker 1: dawn good. How did he look capable? Not great? Would
Speaker 1: look capable, And that's better, frankly better quarterbacking than Washington
Speaker 1: in a while, Brian, let's go to the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: Bad news out of Buffalo. Our boy Zack Moss currently
Speaker 1: dealing with a hamstring strain. UH last season basically marred
Speaker 1: by an ankle injury. This is not a good start
Speaker 1: to his what's supposed to be a bounce back campaign
Speaker 1: for Moss. I'm certainly invested in that, and right now
Speaker 1: I'm a little worried. Devin Singletary obviously gets a bump
Speaker 1: of moss Mrs time, and Matt Barrita has looked pretty
Speaker 1: good in camp for the Bills, so he becomes pretty
Speaker 1: relevant if Moss. It seems like a sad trombone is
Speaker 1: worth this for you know, Mitchell true Bisky's in Buffalo too,
Speaker 1: and Zack Moss is getting hurt. You made that work
Speaker 1: feeling bad. I don't need an excuse to use the
Speaker 1: trombone sound. But the Texans they release their depth chart
Speaker 1: and it looks like they basically just drew names randomly
Speaker 1: across their entire depth chart because they're trying to be
Speaker 1: so tricky with how they treat the media. Nobody releasing,
Speaker 1: Oh well, we don't buy by shuffling our depth chart.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get We're gonna get extra wins this year
Speaker 1: by faking everybody out with an untrue depth chart. They've
Speaker 1: got Philip Lindsay and mark Ingram listed as their co
Speaker 1: starting running backs. Tyrod Taylor was the top quarterback with
Speaker 1: the Shawn Watson fourth, and Chris Conley is the starting
Speaker 1: wide receiver. Okay, let's go to the Lions. Matt. There's
Speaker 1: not a lot to report here, but Dan Campbell drinks
Speaker 1: a ton of caffeine and he thinks of VENTI is
Speaker 1: forty ounces, so it is venti venti. That's the That's
Speaker 1: the update, is that that's a lot of caffe Yeah,
Speaker 1: he likes caffee. I still refuse to say venti and
Speaker 1: whatever the other snow sizes. They always give you the
Speaker 1: stink I, but I don't care. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. Ryan. There's usually something bad happening in Cleveland,
Speaker 1: like Baker Mayfield beef in with Colin Coward or someone's
Speaker 1: getting hurt for the year. But all is well right
Speaker 1: now in Cleveland, and I hope I'm not drinking them
Speaker 1: and uh Odell Beckham looking very spry and camping right now,
Speaker 1: going in the late twenties, at wide receiver. I like
Speaker 1: that cost for someone with the ceiling that's still very
Speaker 1: high when healthy. It's not like Odell Beckham's old at
Speaker 1: this stage. He just hasn't been able to perform for
Speaker 1: quite a while. Give Kevin Stefanski some credit because when
Speaker 1: he walked in there, you know, basically one year ago,
Speaker 1: there were still tons of Cleveland turmoil. Kevin Stefanski has solidified,
Speaker 1: steadied the entire organization, and Andrew Berry as well, a
Speaker 1: lot of positive steam coming out of Cleveland. The Colts,
Speaker 1: obviously at Carson Wentz. Quentin Nelson had the foot surgery
Speaker 1: we talked about last last show, and everybody knows about that.
Speaker 1: But new this week ESPN and Chris Mortenson reporting that
Speaker 1: they're trending too closer to a week one availability. You know,
Speaker 1: it's still very early in the timetable for these guys.
Speaker 1: You know, they just got the surgery a week ago.
Speaker 1: So I don't think anybody really knows, but um, perhaps
Speaker 1: there's some good news there, and I think we're gonna
Speaker 1: see Jonathan Taylor's ADP rise back up again. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the Seattle Seahawks. Matt left tackle Dwayne Brown is
Speaker 1: still holding in as in, he's attending practices but not
Speaker 1: doing anything until he gets a new contract. That's how
Speaker 1: you avoid the fifty a day fine and not showing up.
Speaker 1: By the way, show up, but I'm not doing anything. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks are trying to install a new offense under
Speaker 1: new coordinator Shane Waldron, so it's worth keeping an eye
Speaker 1: on Dwyane Brown holding in. Let's go to the Jets.
Speaker 1: Elijah More, rookie wide receiver. Everyone's very high on high
Speaker 1: on him. Um has a quad issue, currently getting an
Speaker 1: m R I. That's not good. Denzel Mims has looked
Speaker 1: really bad. Apparently he lost twenty pounds due to eating
Speaker 1: bad salmon. Uh during the off season. So James and
Speaker 1: crowd are all of a sudden, you should be creeping
Speaker 1: up how much salmon, I don't know, but just enough.
Speaker 1: He's a lot of bad salmon. By the way, bad salmon.
Speaker 1: To me, it's just redundant pretty much. Did he did
Speaker 1: have one bad experience with salmon and lost from it
Speaker 1: or just continuously ate the bad salmon for weeks and weeks? Well,
Speaker 1: Braxton Barrios is already a thing and rulling preseason week two.
Speaker 1: That's not good. Good news for the Jets. Kansas City's
Speaker 1: rebuild offensive line took a bit of a blow with
Speaker 1: Lauren DuVernay tard If breaking his hand he was He's
Speaker 1: expected to miss at least a few regular season games,
Speaker 1: and the team's guard behind him, Kyle Long, is on
Speaker 1: the pup list, so we don't know about his availability.
Speaker 1: So the offensive line for Kansas City with a little
Speaker 1: bit of turmoil right now. Let's head to Philadelphia. Mattu
Speaker 1: DeVonta Smith is dealing with an mcl S brain He's
Speaker 1: expected to be sidelined for the rest of August. Also,
Speaker 1: left tackle Andre Dillard suffered a nice brain on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: So just like every year in Philly, the injury bug
Speaker 1: is back there. I don't know how they keep doing this.
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos Bryant Denver here in Minnesota right now to
Speaker 1: play this weekend. UH. Mike Boone former Viking Mike Boone
Speaker 1: pulled his quad for the Broncos, but he's number three
Speaker 1: behind UH Melvin Gordon, Javante Adams. Uh. Not a lot
Speaker 1: of a big effect for Boone being hurt. Courtland Sutton
Speaker 1: looks great. Jerry Judy is going to be a nice guy.
Speaker 1: Alongside Sutton. Everyone likes no a fan. It's all about
Speaker 1: who's who's going to be the quarterback in Denver, and
Speaker 1: we still do not know. That's probably the most battle
Speaker 1: rooting for Drew Lock to look better and win that
Speaker 1: job because he can't produce fantasy points. He seems like
Speaker 1: he is now the forgotten man. Among the Rams wide
Speaker 1: outs is DeShawn Jackson. He's impressed thoroughly throughout camp and
Speaker 1: looks fast, he looks healthy. There's a good chance that
Speaker 1: he will be the starting receiver opposite Robert Woods on
Speaker 1: opening day. And basically, going undrafted, you can you can
Speaker 1: get the You can get a starting wide receiver for
Speaker 1: the Rams at virtually no cost right now, Deshan Jackson
Speaker 1: until he gets injured in week one and then you
Speaker 1: punt him. Then you punt him and you go pick
Speaker 1: somebody else up. You put Sammy Watkins into Shawn Jackson
Speaker 1: in your week one and then let's go to the
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott has an m r I scheduled
Speaker 1: for Monday. But don't worry about it, says the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Pr Nothing to see here, h They're saying it doesn't
Speaker 1: indicate a setback, but things aren't progressing quite as quickly
Speaker 1: as the Cowboys want it, and it sounds like they
Speaker 1: may hold him out of the entirety of the preseason.
Speaker 1: That means you get a lot of Garrett Gilbert and
Speaker 1: Ben d Nucci this August. Yeah, I I drafted last night,
Speaker 1: I drafted Ceedee Lamb. And because it's a guillotine format,
Speaker 1: I'm really worried about these early season games. Sure I
Speaker 1: get knocked out for the year, and like, oh man,
Speaker 1: I really hope, I really really hope Dak Prescott's back.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Miami Dolphins. Brian rookie wide receiver
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle has looked phenomenal, especially in joint practices against
Speaker 1: the Bears, just burning everybody. He's going after Will Fuller
Speaker 1: right now is wide receiver forty eight Waddle. That is
Speaker 1: but a little bit before Davante Parker. Waddle is already
Speaker 1: getting drafted head of Parker, but Waddle looks like he
Speaker 1: might be the wide receiver you want on this team,
Speaker 1: especially based on adp right. Will Fuller still not a
Speaker 1: factor at this stage. Uh. Last week I talked about
Speaker 1: the Vikings offensive line woes, and I was hoping as
Speaker 1: a Viking fan that I'd be able to talk about
Speaker 1: it getting better this week, but no, Dice. Uh. First
Speaker 1: round draft pick Christian Darrisaw underwent a second core surgery
Speaker 1: and he's unlikely to return to practice until close to September.
Speaker 1: So far, he has yet to have a full practice
Speaker 1: with the team this year. O t a s mini camp.
Speaker 1: Now training camp sounds crazing games. Yeah so again, take
Speaker 1: a little caution in this Vikings offensive line. Matt, Let's
Speaker 1: go to the Giants. Se Kwan Barkley activated from the
Speaker 1: pup and he started practicing on Monday. But Kenny Golladay
Speaker 1: went the opposite way. He's dealing with a hamstring injury
Speaker 1: and it looks like he won't see any action until
Speaker 1: the end of the preseason. Brian, The Patriots played Thursday
Speaker 1: night in a game that had a number of positive storylines.
Speaker 1: Yeah so. Back on August four, when asked what rookie
Speaker 1: running back Ramandre Stevenson needed to improve upon, Patriots running
Speaker 1: back coach Ivan Feeders said everything, and then Ramandre Stevenson
Speaker 1: reels off a sixty plus yard touchdown on touchdown um at.
Speaker 1: Stevenson also totaled nine hundred yards across his last six
Speaker 1: college games. And by the way, Patriots running backs coach
Speaker 1: Ivan Feeders played wide receiver in college and he's been
Speaker 1: the running back coach since two thousand and one. It's
Speaker 1: a long time something about Tom Brady like he's kept
Speaker 1: his like the running backs with the Patriots, that they
Speaker 1: ever developed the running back there ever, No, so I
Speaker 1: don't They don't know what they're talking about there. There's
Speaker 1: a big dip on Remondress of experience stuff I don't know.
Speaker 1: Let's also remember Damian Harris got all the first team
Speaker 1: looks and I thought he looked pretty good. Um, they
Speaker 1: pulled him out on third downs. They put in you know,
Speaker 1: James James White and others. Um, but Damian Harris got
Speaker 1: all the first team looks. And let's not forget about
Speaker 1: that part. But Remander Stevenson looked good and either like
Speaker 1: late second quarter or maybe it was early third quarter.
Speaker 1: Goal line work for Remandre Stevenson as well, and he
Speaker 1: has built for it. Baby, do not let him and
Speaker 1: your standard redraft leagues. He should not go one drafted
Speaker 1: this year. Didn't mention mac Jones. I thought mac Jones
Speaker 1: looked pretty good and back up and it was Yeah,
Speaker 1: I was back up for the Saints. Marquez Callaway is
Speaker 1: your team's number one wide out. Michael Thomas is out
Speaker 1: with an ankle injury, tray Kwon Smith has an undisclosed injury,
Speaker 1: and Deonta Harris is facing possible suspension for his July
Speaker 1: d U I. Uh, Callaway going off the board in
Speaker 1: the nine round. You could have a team's number one
Speaker 1: wide receiver in the nineteenth round. Sounds like Alvin kamaras
Speaker 1: the top wide receiver there. Atlanta Falcons Matt. Uh, they're
Speaker 1: not feeling all that great about their running backs, so
Speaker 1: they just signed Uh Deonta Foreman. Yeah, he's back again. Uh,
Speaker 1: that depth chart is very strange and Foreman might actually
Speaker 1: have a shot to get some snaps this year. Uh,
Speaker 1: let's go to the Titans. Derrick Henry is getting very
Speaker 1: limited reps in practice and basically throughout throughout camp, but
Speaker 1: they're just being uber cautious with him. He doesn't really
Speaker 1: need practice on in running people over like he's done
Speaker 1: year in year out. But get to know Darrienton Evans
Speaker 1: even must handcuff if you have Henry on roster, but
Speaker 1: a guy I'm targeting even if I don't have Henry
Speaker 1: on roster, because if something happens to Henry, that's a
Speaker 1: lotto ticket right there. That's gonna vault your team near
Speaker 1: the top. We've seen two preseason games from the Steelers already.
Speaker 1: Many teams have played zero. Um, you know, so uh,
Speaker 1: this is uh, this is a note. Uh. Najie Harris
Speaker 1: has looked pretty good so far. The box scores don't
Speaker 1: necessarily showed. He had two longer runs. He got called
Speaker 1: back on penalty on Thursday night. Um, But to this point,
Speaker 1: Najie Harris has looked requisite of the first round running
Speaker 1: back that they expect him to be, and so far
Speaker 1: green lights. Let's go to the Cardinals. Speaking of running backs,
Speaker 1: the Cardinals don't have a first round running back that
Speaker 1: they're talking about because they keep saying Chase Edmonds and
Speaker 1: James Conner are splitting the backfield. Everything that's coming out
Speaker 1: of camp, quotes from the coaches, quotes from the players,
Speaker 1: it's going to be a completely split backfield all year.
Speaker 1: James Connor is not good unless James Connor gets hurt,
Speaker 1: which he usually does. Her right now, Yeah, so you
Speaker 1: know if that he doesn't bounce back, let's go to
Speaker 1: the Bengals, uh fifth overall pick in the first wide
Speaker 1: receiver taken on Jamark. Chase have separation issues apparently can't
Speaker 1: his mom. But this has been an issue in college,
Speaker 1: I suppose. But he was the number one drafted wide
Speaker 1: receiver and he's the first wide receiver getting taken and
Speaker 1: Redraft Best Ball Leagues over Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
Speaker 1: I got that completely the other way I got I
Speaker 1: got Chase last, especially based on how expensive he is
Speaker 1: compared to the other two. So but Chase not great
Speaker 1: reports coming out of camp so far for him, which
Speaker 1: you don't want to hear. One of the forty Niners
Speaker 1: Beat reporters has logged every single training camp pass for
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, and through midweek, Garoppolo had
Speaker 1: a sixty two percent completion rate, which is okay, alright,
Speaker 1: six touchdowns, six interceptions. That's not god ideal. Trey Lance
Speaker 1: seventy percent completion rate seems better. Ten touchdown passes, two
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Just saying just saying, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's coming, all right, let's go to Chicago Bears. I
Speaker 1: want to talk about a rookie quarterback to um Justin
Speaker 1: Fields has been absolutely tearing it up in camp. The
Speaker 1: Bears had some joint practices with the Dolphins this week.
Speaker 1: In a six snap span, which is a tongue twister,
Speaker 1: Fields through for three touchdown passes against the Dolphins defense
Speaker 1: and ran for one in six snaps. It's impressive. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a nice efficiency. It's a good efficiency. He will
Speaker 1: get a long look, they said, more than two quarters
Speaker 1: on Saturday night versus Miami. Brian the Jaguars DJ Shark
Speaker 1: had surgery recently on a broken finger, but he should
Speaker 1: be ready for Week one. But something to keep your
Speaker 1: eye on as you might want to be drafting Lavisha
Speaker 1: Chanlt and Marvin Jones a little sooner than you were
Speaker 1: before this news broke recently. My final team is the
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens. Ri Shod Bateman underwent groin surgery. His preseason
Speaker 1: is over. Expected timetable is September, and it's unclear if
Speaker 1: you will walk into a starting job when he comes back,
Speaker 1: considering you have missed almost all of training camp. Will
Speaker 1: Marky's Brown and Miles boy Can both have hamstring injuries,
Speaker 1: so it's all but certain that Sammy Watkins will be
Speaker 1: the starting in the starting lineup. Hopefully by then it
Speaker 1: will be Markus Brown and Sammy Watkins is your number
Speaker 1: one and number two receivers there um. Also, I will
Speaker 1: note because Gus Edwards was my sleeper player last week
Speaker 1: when they team released their unofficial first depth chart co
Speaker 1: number one running backs were Gus Edwards and j K
Speaker 1: doct I want to talk a little bit more about
Speaker 1: j K Dobbins maybe next segment. Okay, good, let's go
Speaker 1: to the our Our final team is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 1: Mike Williams has a hip flex er. Uh so missing
Speaker 1: some practice and here we go again. People are so
Speaker 1: are so excited for Mike Williams this year. Tyron Johns
Speaker 1: are they remember that name? At wide receiver for the
Speaker 1: Chargers in dime is the especially but he could become
Speaker 1: viable in redraft this year. He has some one of
Speaker 1: my favorite like wait last him Byron Pringle. I got
Speaker 1: a couple others that are my deep deep receiver depth
Speaker 1: chart plays, sleeper plays. All right, when we come back
Speaker 1: the Peacock Off, it's two bold predictions from each of
Speaker 1: our hosts and we'll find out who gets to Peacock
Speaker 1: after the season was over, The Pea cock Off. When
Speaker 1: we return to Fantasy Football Weekly, Welcome back Kasy Football
Speaker 1: Weekly Culture m Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson with you
Speaker 1: do you haven't checked out the freshest new way to
Speaker 1: play fantasy football. It's called the Guillotine League. You can
Speaker 1: get more information at Guillotine leagues dot com on this
Speaker 1: new exciting format. This segment is called the Pea cock Off.
Speaker 1: Two bold predictions from each host as they attempt to
Speaker 1: be right with ideas that are so crazy they might
Speaker 1: just come true. We begin with Brian Johnson, what is
Speaker 1: your first pea cock Off? I am gonna be pea
Speaker 1: cocking off when Kyle Pitts scores more touchdowns than teammate
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley this season. Now, I won't say how many
Speaker 1: touchdowns that is, but we're banking on a fair amount
Speaker 1: of touchdowns for Calvin Ridley and I think Kyle pits
Speaker 1: will have more. Ridley had nine in box. Ridley had
Speaker 1: nine touchdowns last year, very good total, seven from inside
Speaker 1: the twenty five of those seven were from inside the
Speaker 1: yard line on eleven targets. Calvin Ridley had five touchdowns
Speaker 1: inside the ten. Yeah, pretty good numbers, especially for receiver.
Speaker 1: Now we gotta throw Julio under the bus. Julio Jones
Speaker 1: really quick, not in town anymore. Of course, one target
Speaker 1: from inside the ten yard line last year mind bending,
Speaker 1: So that usage so dumb. So outside of Ridley and Julio, though,
Speaker 1: Hayden Hurst, Russell Gauge, Brandon Powell and la Kwan Treadwell
Speaker 1: combined to score eleven touchdowns from inside the ten yard line.
Speaker 1: Who on twenty two targets? Those are great numbers. And
Speaker 1: you think that slot fest of receivers is going to
Speaker 1: combine for those looks now that Kyle Pitts is in town,
Speaker 1: absolutely not. Well they did last year, well, Kyle Pitts
Speaker 1: was not in town. Now Kyle Pitts is in town.
Speaker 1: Who is six six to forty and absolute a plus
Speaker 1: of a unicorn, who is not going to play standard
Speaker 1: tight end. By the way, that's what Hayden Hurts is
Speaker 1: gonna do. Pitts doesn't have to do all the things
Speaker 1: Hayden Hurts is gonna do. Pitts is gonna be catching
Speaker 1: passes all over the place and scoring more touchdowns than
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley this year. Matt, what is your first of
Speaker 1: two pee cock offs. I'm gonna go with j. K. Dobbins,
Speaker 1: finishing as a top three running back Top three, top three.
Speaker 1: He was only on the field for forty five percent
Speaker 1: of the Ravens offensive plays last season, yet he was
Speaker 1: fourth in the NFL in rushing plays of over twenty yards,
Speaker 1: with eight eight of those long runs on only one
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty four rushing attempts. So six percent of
Speaker 1: his rushing attempts went for twenty or more yards and
Speaker 1: twenty of his rushing attempts went for ten yards or more.
Speaker 1: That's one in every six point five rushing attempts went
Speaker 1: for ten or more yards. Now, Derrick Henry lad the
Speaker 1: league with forty eight runs of ten or more yards
Speaker 1: on two carries. His uh, his percentage was not as
Speaker 1: good as J. K. Dobbins. In the Ravens last nine games,
Speaker 1: including playoffs, Dobbins had nine touchdowns. Boy, that's nine times,
Speaker 1: and the average six point four yards per carry, plus
Speaker 1: mark Ingram's gone vacating seventy two carries. I'd venture to
Speaker 1: guess that most of those go the way of Dobbins,
Speaker 1: getting him to the two hundred carry mark. And I
Speaker 1: think that that's a conservative mark. Extrapolate his numbers from
Speaker 1: last year, running just two hundred times, that's twelve yards
Speaker 1: and fourteen touchdowns. That yardage total would have been third
Speaker 1: amongst running backs, and that touchdown total would have been
Speaker 1: fourth amongst running backs. Plus Ravens running back coach Craig Verse.
Speaker 1: Stig said that he's caught absolutely every ball in practice
Speaker 1: so far in camp, and the Ravens keep spouting off
Speaker 1: about how they want Lamar to run less and throw more.
Speaker 1: Two means that to me, that means Lamar and his
Speaker 1: low eight point six a dot we'll be giving JK
Speaker 1: even more touches. So I'm gonna forecast two or thirty
Speaker 1: rushing attempts and fifty catches. If he does that, he
Speaker 1: easily slides in as the top three running back. You
Speaker 1: and I are set up for a and I like
Speaker 1: j K Dobbins just fine. Jo and I are set
Speaker 1: up for a season long battle because I'm heavily and
Speaker 1: diametricallysed Gus Edwards and You're heavily in favor. And I'll
Speaker 1: be making later guys. I love Justice Hill. This Ryan
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick will finish as a QB one. I mean he'll
Speaker 1: be one of the top twelve quarterbacks. His a DP
Speaker 1: is currently double that at quarterback twenty two, round fourteen.
Speaker 1: Here's my case. Unlike any recent Washington quarterback, Fitzgerald Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: can press the ball upfield. He finished eleventh in completed
Speaker 1: air yards last year and eighth in yards per attempt
Speaker 1: despite having the second shortest time to throw at just
Speaker 1: two point four seconds. Last season playing behind that wolful
Speaker 1: Miami offensive line, he ranked number one in aggressive US
Speaker 1: which I loved, which is next gen stats is passer rating. Yeah,
Speaker 1: willingness to throw into tight coverages. It is an aggressive beard,
Speaker 1: isn't it. Fitzpatrick led the league in on target percentage
Speaker 1: on passes of greater than twenty yards down field. I
Speaker 1: love his ability to press down field, and, by the way,
Speaker 1: not as wildly erratic as as many fantasy owners think.
Speaker 1: In his seven starts last year, he had six quality
Speaker 1: fantasy starts his UH and his eighty six completion rate
Speaker 1: is one percent less than Aaron Rodgers M v P season.
Speaker 1: He's not as wildly erratic as some people tend to think.
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick is. As a reminder, last year, playing for a
Speaker 1: I think will ultimately be a much worse Miami offense.
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick was on track for fort hundred yards, twenty eight touchdowns,
Speaker 1: three thirty rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns, which would
Speaker 1: have made him justin Herbert last year. Herbert's ADP is
Speaker 1: quarterback six. You can get Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback twenty
Speaker 1: two and he will finish as a QB one. You
Speaker 1: mean he would have been justin her beard. He's justin
Speaker 1: a hair beard, like an air beard beard. That kind
Speaker 1: of works. To be honest, Brian, what is your second
Speaker 1: peacock off? I have Austin Ekeler finishing as the the
Speaker 1: RB one in PPR, not a RB one, the overall
Speaker 1: number one running back in points per reception leagues this year.
Speaker 1: I guess, Matt, you made a similar call last year.
Speaker 1: I tried this one last year and it was it was,
Speaker 1: it was top overall. Yeah, okay, Well, for all the
Speaker 1: reasons you said, we're just copying my work from last year. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Everything that made him uh two thousand plus combo yards
Speaker 1: all day long in the bag when he shows healthy
Speaker 1: averages is more than four and a half yards per
Speaker 1: carry a lock for at least five catches per game
Speaker 1: get nine catches, and things didn't work out for him
Speaker 1: last year. He wasn't healthy and other things that weren't
Speaker 1: going for him last year. He wasn't going into justin
Speaker 1: air Bears first full year, which we are this year
Speaker 1: first full season. Anthony Lynn, arguably one of the worst
Speaker 1: coaches we've seen over the last decade, finally gone new
Speaker 1: head coach do oc for the Chargers. It was very
Speaker 1: well for Austin Nikela and lastly, and but definitely not least,
Speaker 1: he totally revamped offensive line, starting with left tackle Rashawn Slater,
Speaker 1: who was taken overall by the Chargers. When this guy
Speaker 1: gets going and run blocking in the second level looks
Speaker 1: like the Juggernaut from X Men. Uh. They do get
Speaker 1: Brian Bulaga back. He was limited by injury last year,
Speaker 1: but he looks good. The Chargers signed another former Packer
Speaker 1: and Corey Lindsley, who was Pro Football Focuses top graded
Speaker 1: free agent center this past offseason. Surrendered only seven pressures
Speaker 1: ont pass blocking snaps, so great for the whole offense.
Speaker 1: Huge upgraded center and both starting guards Matt Feiler and
Speaker 1: O Day. I'm gonna go with a bouche also free agents.
Speaker 1: So I will admit the line needs a little time
Speaker 1: to mesh probably, but it's a lot of moving parts.
Speaker 1: It was so much more, so much better, so much
Speaker 1: more talented. Love the Charges as an overall team. And
Speaker 1: if Austin Ekeler can stay healthy, we had that concern
Speaker 1: with every player in the NFL. He could very well
Speaker 1: finish the season as RB one, and I'm going with
Speaker 1: the fact you will stay healthy and finish as RB
Speaker 1: one in PPR. Yeah, I was so on board Austin
Speaker 1: Ekeler last year and I am this year as well.
Speaker 1: He's he's might number nine ranked running back, but I
Speaker 1: still think he does have running back one upside. He
Speaker 1: just has to get more carries, and that's something he's
Speaker 1: never had in his career is a lot of carries,
Speaker 1: and I think that's why he wouldn't be That was
Speaker 1: the plan for him last year though, when he got hurt.
Speaker 1: And I don't know, like we're gonna see a lot
Speaker 1: of running backs get limited by their their touches, including
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, I think. But could be Matt your second
Speaker 1: pea cock off. You know what I like about Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. Sometimes we do each other's work like Brian, Like,
Speaker 1: Brian just told me all of the great things about
Speaker 1: the Chargers old line. And that's why I have just
Speaker 1: an air Bear that's right finishing as quarterback number two,
Speaker 1: number two. He's gonna throw ten touchdowns. I think so.
Speaker 1: Um Brian talked about the offensive line. That's fantastic. Joe
Speaker 1: Lombardi is the new offensive coordinator. He had one season
Speaker 1: as offensive coordinator. I mentioned this last week. His team
Speaker 1: passed sixty six percent of the time. With Austin Ekeler
Speaker 1: as your lead running back, you're probably going to pass
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the time. You're gonna keep that
Speaker 1: ball in the air. The Chargers led the NFL in
Speaker 1: total plays run last year at seventy per game. And
Speaker 1: if those trends hold true, air Bear will throw forty
Speaker 1: six passes a game. If he does that at seven
Speaker 1: point three yards per attempt, he's going to throw for
Speaker 1: three thirty six yards per game. If he throws touch
Speaker 1: a lot, that's a lot. That's a lot. Only two
Speaker 1: quarterbacks have ever averaged that many yards per game two
Speaker 1: thousand thirteen Peyton Manning in two thousand eleven Drew Brees.
Speaker 1: If he throws a touchdown at equal percentage from last season.
Speaker 1: He's going to average two and a half touchdowns per game,
Speaker 1: and a few quarterbacks have averaged over that per per
Speaker 1: two and a half touchdowns per game, but it's usually
Speaker 1: like one quarterback every other year. The only reason I
Speaker 1: don't have him finishing as quarterback number one is because
Speaker 1: Paul Charchion is about to tell you who's going to
Speaker 1: finish at quarterback number one, Patrick Mahomes in our final,
Speaker 1: our sixth and final peacock Off. Patrick Mahomes will set
Speaker 1: the single season passing yardage and touchdown record this year.
Speaker 1: Is because it's the first season with seventeen games. He
Speaker 1: does get a six games, and I am factoring that
Speaker 1: in do you think he gets us expert in sixteen
Speaker 1: games though? Because he won't play, so you're you're probably
Speaker 1: right about that, because I think they're sitting on like
Speaker 1: win season, so there is a chance I'll have to
Speaker 1: do it in sixteen games, and he may. He's already
Speaker 1: he's already had a top ten yardage season once already,
Speaker 1: and he's already got the number two passing touchdown mark
Speaker 1: of all time when he had a fifty touchdown season.
Speaker 1: I believe that was eighteen, so you know he's already
Speaker 1: performed at a level similar to that. UM. I also
Speaker 1: like the fact that Patrick Mahomes has got uh still
Speaker 1: has Tyree Hill, He's got the rebuilt offensive line that needless,
Speaker 1: I don't have to even go into a lengthy discussion
Speaker 1: at this point on on how good Patrick Mahomes is.
Speaker 1: Safe to say that Patrick Mahomes is very good and
Speaker 1: has a lot of upside that could all come together
Speaker 1: in a season with we're in which he gets very
Speaker 1: good protection. Clyde Edwards Laire could be sitting on some
Speaker 1: extra receptions and we'll talk about that a little bit
Speaker 1: later in this show when we come back. The Traits
Speaker 1: of a Sleeper running Back Matt Harrison is unearthed, a
Speaker 1: mechanism by which you can identify sleeper running backs. Who
Speaker 1: are the players you can take in the mid rounds
Speaker 1: that will perform like fantasy starters. We'll tell you when
Speaker 1: we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. Paul Chargie, Matt Harrison, and Brian Johnson with you.
Speaker 1: You can get all my player rankings available for Guillotine
Speaker 1: Leagues dot Com. Matt Yeah challenge you to come up
Speaker 1: with the common traits among sleeper running backs. In any
Speaker 1: given year, half of the RB ones the top twelve
Speaker 1: running backs will come from the middle rounds or later
Speaker 1: of fantasy drafts. Uh. The washout rates very high on
Speaker 1: the end running backs due to injuries and a lot
Speaker 1: of other things. Um, And, so what are the common
Speaker 1: traits that you can look for in the middle rounds
Speaker 1: to help find running backs that can vault up to
Speaker 1: every week starter status. Yeah, so I set this up
Speaker 1: where I want a running back who I can take
Speaker 1: in round six or later that gives me round two upside.
Speaker 1: That's that's significant jump right there. Um. A DP has
Speaker 1: about fourteen or fifteen running backs going in the first
Speaker 1: two rounds, so they need to finish in the top
Speaker 1: fifteen basically. UM. I've compiled data from the last six
Speaker 1: seasons back to looked at the original a DP and
Speaker 1: final stats the running backs, and I found nineteen instances
Speaker 1: where running back in the last six years that qualified
Speaker 1: as drafted outside of round six and finished in the
Speaker 1: top fifteen. So let's unearth some of the trends that
Speaker 1: these nineteen players have in common. Um. And each of
Speaker 1: these trends that I've outlined here we've seen them happen
Speaker 1: at least five times on these three trends. Okay, so
Speaker 1: it's happened at least five years. You've got a pool
Speaker 1: of nineteen running backs made the big jump from round
Speaker 1: six or lower all the way up to round two.
Speaker 1: Corral you, and five of them have cover. Each of
Speaker 1: these got trend number one a high passing percentage team
Speaker 1: with a well below average passing game. Okay, so that
Speaker 1: means a lot roll a lot, and they got junkie
Speaker 1: quarterbacks and wide receivers. Um, We've i found five guys
Speaker 1: who fit this mold. A team with a high passing
Speaker 1: percentage seems counterintuitive here, as that conversely means less rushing attempts. Right. However,
Speaker 1: these teams usually have a few similarities. Three of the
Speaker 1: five running backs were playing under coaches in their first
Speaker 1: year with the team, so they came into a situation
Speaker 1: where the offense is probably bad. Uh, They're not playoff teams,
Speaker 1: with the exception of one of those teams was the
Speaker 1: seven and nine Washington football team last year that won
Speaker 1: the NFC East, so still a below average team that
Speaker 1: won a division. Three of those five teams had bottom
Speaker 1: five defenses in points allowed and bad quarterbacks playing catchup
Speaker 1: usually equals low depth of target because the defenses are
Speaker 1: playing more prevent In fact, of the A dots of
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks were under eight yards. So teams that probably
Speaker 1: fit the mold of a bad defense, a below average
Speaker 1: passing unit, and a quarterback with a low depth of target. Well,
Speaker 1: we're going to start with Detroit and Jared Goff, who
Speaker 1: have been picking on for two or three years. His
Speaker 1: six point one average depth of target. That's not good.
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell, rookie head coach, that that fills in right there.
Speaker 1: Now you think, well, DeAndre Swift, I can't get him
Speaker 1: that late. But Jamal Williams is going off in the
Speaker 1: tenth round, and the Lions are still saying it's a
Speaker 1: two man split backfield. They keep saying it over and
Speaker 1: over and over again. So Jamal Williams in the tenth round,
Speaker 1: he's juicy the Jets. The defense is still always away.
Speaker 1: Rookie quarterback Zack Wilson, who had a ten point nine
Speaker 1: a dot in college that goes down in your first
Speaker 1: lay in the NFL. And Robert sala a rookie head
Speaker 1: coach Michael Carter going off in the eighth round, and
Speaker 1: I think Michael Carter, out of these guys, has the
Speaker 1: best chance of making. Only Tevin Coleman and la Michael
Speaker 1: p Ryan are challenging for touches. So Carter I like
Speaker 1: a lot uh Jacksonville bad defense, rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 1: only on nine point zero a dot in college, and
Speaker 1: Urban Meyer as a rookie coach, Travis E. T n
Speaker 1: or eight gen He's going around five. But James Robinson
Speaker 1: is still there in round nine right now, Travis, I'm
Speaker 1: pretty down in Robinson, but that's good value. It's good
Speaker 1: value on both of these guys, and I wouldn't mind
Speaker 1: having either of these guys on my team, even though
Speaker 1: I'm cheating a little bit with eton trend Number two,
Speaker 1: A playoff team with a good defense and a pass
Speaker 1: catching running back emerges out of nowhere, all right, So
Speaker 1: I gotta be a playoff bound team up that has
Speaker 1: a very good, very good defense, got it, and a
Speaker 1: pass catching running back. Okay, and we found five players
Speaker 1: that fit this mold. Each of the team's made the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Um two of them were headed up by rookies that
Speaker 1: were seemingly blocked by a good established player. Those were
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara who was blocked by Mark Ingram and David
Speaker 1: Johnson back in the day, who was blocked by Chris
Speaker 1: tap dancing Nancy Johnson. I just wanted to bring him.
Speaker 1: Thank you for you to tap dancing, Nancy. It's been
Speaker 1: a while. Um, three of those players had By the way,
Speaker 1: how come we didn't have a tap dancing sounder at
Speaker 1: any point? You know, we could have had the click
Speaker 1: click at easy Yeah, right, yeah, right there we go. Um,
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay super Bowl Champs. Fantastic defense. If we're going
Speaker 1: to have a pass catcher emergent of nowhere, though, it
Speaker 1: can't be four Net or Roe Joe, who are near
Speaker 1: misss by being selected earlier than our criteria. It would
Speaker 1: have to be the one player off the board, and
Speaker 1: that's Geo Bernard who they're giving rave reviews to encamp.
Speaker 1: Tom Brady recruited him specifically kind of like Geo Bernard
Speaker 1: is a late round sleeper. Yeah, there's some temptation to
Speaker 1: equate him to Lashawn McCoy, who was a pass catching
Speaker 1: running back who was on roster last year and they
Speaker 1: just didn't use him. But Bernard's what only like five
Speaker 1: years into his career, not fifteen years into his career
Speaker 1: like McCoy was exactly. Um, the l A Rams should
Speaker 1: contend in the NFC with a great defense, and now
Speaker 1: we're all looking at cam Akers being out, which is
Speaker 1: actually a plus for sleeper running backs. Right. Darryl Henderson's
Speaker 1: ability to stay healthy and on the field is very
Speaker 1: much being called into question by his head coach. So
Speaker 1: Xavier Jones is you're out of nowhere guy. He's a
Speaker 1: clear passing option from what they say in camp notes,
Speaker 1: he's catching everything. So Xavier Jones is a guy you
Speaker 1: can get real late last round year draft. Nobody's drafting
Speaker 1: him right now. Pick him up. Uh and then Washington
Speaker 1: somehow upgraded their defense, which was already very good from
Speaker 1: last year and should be among the elite units in
Speaker 1: the league. I think they should be favored to win
Speaker 1: the NFC East as well. J D. Mckissic is the
Speaker 1: guy that you want, and it's not mc suckett anymore.
Speaker 1: He's going off in the eleventh round. Plus he already
Speaker 1: proved that he can do this role with eight catches
Speaker 1: last year. It's not out of nowhere. But he's being
Speaker 1: drafted in the eleventh round. And he finished his RB
Speaker 1: seventeen last year, so it's kind of like, hey, just
Speaker 1: a reminder, by the way, he's good. He's put on
Speaker 1: like ten or fifteen pounds too, So if something were
Speaker 1: to happen to Gibson, he could assume that three. Yeah,
Speaker 1: absolutely's not gonna steal it from Gibson. But and trend
Speaker 1: number three, it's it's not that uh, it's not that interesting.
Speaker 1: It's an injury or a departure plus a coaching staff
Speaker 1: with a Bell cow philosophy. It's basically the best handcuffs
Speaker 1: you can get in weird situations. And here are the
Speaker 1: guys who might be in line for a full bell
Speaker 1: Cow roll if the guy in front of them on
Speaker 1: the depth chart doesn't make it to a game, whether
Speaker 1: it's injury, illness, whatever. Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott has averaged
Speaker 1: three touches over the last five seasons. That's a lot
Speaker 1: Cuba Hubbard. This coaching staff let Mike Davis have two
Speaker 1: four touches last year with CMC out. If he goes
Speaker 1: down again, it's Cuba Hubbard's time. Uh. Brian mentioned Darrenton Evans,
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry had three touches and four hundred last year.
Speaker 1: DJ Dallas. Chris Carson was injured last year but still
Speaker 1: had over two sixty five touches in each of the
Speaker 1: prior to seasons, and Seattle has been one that they
Speaker 1: use one running back at a time. And finally, Alexander Madison.
Speaker 1: Dalvin has had over three d touches in two straight
Speaker 1: years and has missed at least two games and all
Speaker 1: four of his pro seasons. Alexander Madison would be in
Speaker 1: line for a ton of work if Dalvin goes down
Speaker 1: with a big injury. Yeah. That's the you know, the
Speaker 1: bell cow philosophy very very important, and you know, I'm
Speaker 1: tempted to lump in a little cream hunting do that.
Speaker 1: But the problems we saw last year, Yeah, yeah, so
Speaker 1: that was a run first mentality offense, very much so
Speaker 1: with Kevin Stefanski, who suckled at the teet of Mike
Speaker 1: Zimmer and loves to do. Yeah, well, because apparently it worked.
Speaker 1: Look at look at where Kevin Stefanski got the browns.
Speaker 1: I mean, you do suckle at the teeth of a
Speaker 1: bell cow, right, Yeah, Well that's a great point. That's
Speaker 1: a great perfect move. Yeah. I like that way to
Speaker 1: hold on I think we have a cow on here,
Speaker 1: don't we all of our we got the cow. There's
Speaker 1: got the cow bell, so you know that works. We
Speaker 1: don't have actual moving at any point. Well, someone mailed
Speaker 1: you an actual cow bell. I recall, Yes, we have
Speaker 1: a listener who sent me a literally functioning cow bell.
Speaker 1: It's in my house. It's super cool. You engraved it
Speaker 1: with fantasy in my bedroom and everything. It's on my
Speaker 1: cow that right, Thank you for the traits of a
Speaker 1: of a sleeper running back, Matt, let me mention this
Speaker 1: for those of you that are in dynasty leagues, are
Speaker 1: interested in dynasty leagues. The Empire League is a fantastic
Speaker 1: variation on dynasty leagues. And while we've just got a
Speaker 1: moment here between now and the end of this segment,
Speaker 1: let me just explain how that works. An Empire league,
Speaker 1: it's a dynasty league where you keep all of your
Speaker 1: players year to year, but unlike most it's got a
Speaker 1: true wind condition on the end of it. The dynasty
Speaker 1: league puts in for every dollar it goes into the pot,
Speaker 1: only half of it goes out at the end of
Speaker 1: each year. So if your league put puts in a
Speaker 1: hypothetical thousand dollars your winners. That you get five and
Speaker 1: the other five hundred rolls forward year to year, waiting
Speaker 1: for a team to win back to back championships. When
Speaker 1: that happens, the winner gets that year's pay out. They
Speaker 1: get the rolling pot and here's the best part. The
Speaker 1: league ends. That's over. One of the things that bugs
Speaker 1: me about fantasy football is there is no true champion.
Speaker 1: You only have the latest winner. The Empire League gives
Speaker 1: you a true champion. This is the guy who won
Speaker 1: the whole thing, and we disbanded the league and we're in.
Speaker 1: You are the champion. Brian Johnson is our current champion,
Speaker 1: and if he wins, he's heading out with a cool
Speaker 1: nine grand that's been rolling up over this, I can
Speaker 1: retire from the show. Finally. That that fun, and so
Speaker 1: it will be fun when Brian retires. For Brian, it
Speaker 1: really has a very special experience knowing what you've got
Speaker 1: on the line this year and for the other eleven
Speaker 1: of us. We're gunning for Brian. You know, we want
Speaker 1: him to lose and we're gonna try to try to
Speaker 1: make him lose. It's uh. It's bringing on the Empire
Speaker 1: League a new variation that you can try in your
Speaker 1: dynasty league. When we come back three tough questions, I'll
Speaker 1: pepper my co host, with three tough questions. You can
Speaker 1: play along see if you can go three and oh.
Speaker 1: On Fantasy Football Weekly, our number two of Fantasy Football Weekly,
Speaker 1: Matt Harrison Brian Johnson with you. Fantasy draft season rapidly approaching.
Speaker 1: We're here to get you ready. This is a segment
Speaker 1: we call three toughes utions. Why because we asked three
Speaker 1: tough questions and you guys try to answer correctly. I've
Speaker 1: got all the correct answers. You will try to match
Speaker 1: my answers. Feel free to play a long tough question
Speaker 1: Number one? What is the one tight end handcuff worth drafting? Matt?
Speaker 1: This one was pretty tough. It might have caused the
Speaker 1: medulla injury for me, so I'm no longer able to
Speaker 1: regulate my body activities including heart rhythm, breathing, blood flow, sneezing, vomiting, coughing,
Speaker 1: swallowing all that stuff. Um to me. A handcuff indicates
Speaker 1: that you have an elite, top tier player and you
Speaker 1: need to back them up because you think when their
Speaker 1: backup would take over, they would get most are all
Speaker 1: of that elite, top tier work. That narrows it down
Speaker 1: to three tight ends, Kelsey, Waller, and Kittles backups. Kelsey's
Speaker 1: backup is Noah Gray, fifth round rookie out of Duke,
Speaker 1: but Kelsey hasn't missed a game that wasn't a week
Speaker 1: seventeen in his career, so it's probably not him. What
Speaker 1: we saw from Ross Dwelly last year when Kittle went
Speaker 1: down was nothing special unless you're interested in two catches
Speaker 1: in twenty yards per game. And then Darren Waller's backup
Speaker 1: as a chap named Foster Moreau a chap you said, yep,
Speaker 1: I think that's the one that you could target. First,
Speaker 1: Waller has a mystery injury right now, has in practiced
Speaker 1: since augustwo but he's been working with the team trainers
Speaker 1: in Vegas. Uh in his sweatpants, as Brian said, uh. Second,
Speaker 1: the amount of offense that runs through Waller is substantial.
Speaker 1: Percent of Derek cars throws went to Waller last season,
Speaker 1: and Henry Ruggs, John Brown, Bryan Edwards they're not a
Speaker 1: top trio of wide receivers in the league. And finally,
Speaker 1: Moreau actually might be good. He scored five times in
Speaker 1: his rookie year and was pretty much absent in year
Speaker 1: two due to injury, so he's been off of everybody's radar.
Speaker 1: The Raiders say a lot of nice things about him,
Speaker 1: and Gruden called him a perfect fit for the offense.
Speaker 1: So I went into this thinking nobody, but I came
Speaker 1: out of it saying, if I'm drafting Darren Waller in
Speaker 1: the second round, drafting Foster Moreau in the last round, Brian,
Speaker 1: who is or what is the one tight end handcuff
Speaker 1: worth drafting? I had the same answer, and I don't
Speaker 1: have much to add other than a clever nickname that
Speaker 1: I used. I think is clever, The Island of Foster Moreau.
Speaker 1: You're on island if you're drafting and I tell you
Speaker 1: that the Island of Dr Moreau. Alright, well, nonetheless, but
Speaker 1: as Matt basically said, the tight end totals for Vegas
Speaker 1: were tops in the league last year. That was basically
Speaker 1: all Waller. But if you've forgotten, Jason Witten played football
Speaker 1: for the Raiders last year, as did Foster Moreau. Those
Speaker 1: two combined for twenty catches, four touchdowns on just twenty
Speaker 1: three targets. Um. So if you just give Moreau eighty
Speaker 1: targets if something happens to Waller based on that combined production,
Speaker 1: because Witten's I would assume gone. Now I thank god, Um,
Speaker 1: just eighty targets. Extrapolate that combined production looking at a
Speaker 1: he catches and sixteen touchdowns. But I'm not saying he's
Speaker 1: gonna score sixteen touchdowns. But if you get sure, I'm
Speaker 1: pretty sure you just called an eighteen touchdown season for
Speaker 1: Foster Morrow. Well, uh yeah, based on that combined well,
Speaker 1: because I'm not gonna put that out in the universe
Speaker 1: that Darren Waller is gonna miss time, because Darren Waller
Speaker 1: is not gonna miss time. And I'm kind of upset
Speaker 1: that you're making us answer to questions as if he's
Speaker 1: gonna his time, because this is clearly the correct answer.
Speaker 1: By the way, Um, this is the correct answer. It's
Speaker 1: Foster Moreau. Let me tell you a little bit more
Speaker 1: about him. Um, he's only twenty four years old. It's
Speaker 1: his third year in Matt mentioned that he missed last
Speaker 1: season because of an a c L injury, and the
Speaker 1: team pivoted to Jason Witten as a The A c
Speaker 1: L injury was actually in December the year before that.
Speaker 1: But last year he just wasn't right and he was
Speaker 1: used very sparingly, and they had Jason Witten. With Jason
Speaker 1: Witten leaving it frees up ninety four snaps for Moreau.
Speaker 1: Nine thirty four snaps. That is a ton and a
Speaker 1: couple of days ago, John Gruden, you had a John
Speaker 1: Gruden quote, another one about Foster Moreau. He said, I'm
Speaker 1: not going to be Foster's agent, but I wish I was.
Speaker 1: I love him. He's a football junkie. He's one of
Speaker 1: the greatest kids I've ever coached. He and Waller give
Speaker 1: us a duo that is as good as any I've
Speaker 1: ever had. That's about Foster Moreau. Considering the horrific state
Speaker 1: of the Raiders receivers, Moreau could emerge as a viable
Speaker 1: bye week filling even if nothing happens to Darren Waller.
Speaker 1: You could put a blow up doll next to Darren
Speaker 1: Waller and say, this is the best duo of tight
Speaker 1: ends I've ever had because you got Darren Waller on
Speaker 1: one side. Anyway, I think your love of Darren fully
Speaker 1: established at this point. Um I thought you might go
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell and um is Thomas still there? I don't
Speaker 1: even know who. I don't even Dan Arnold's not Thomas
Speaker 1: when we're doing that next year, bro tough question number two,
Speaker 1: which NFL offense well? Did see the biggest increase in
Speaker 1: points scored from last year to this year? Brian? So
Speaker 1: I immediately went and looked at the bottom of the
Speaker 1: barrel teams from last year, and those are the Jets,
Speaker 1: the Giants, the Jaguars of the Bengals. You can make
Speaker 1: cases for all those teams making big leaps. The Jets
Speaker 1: and Jaguars have new quarterbacks, the Giants get se Kwan Barkley,
Speaker 1: backs Incinnati didn't have Joe Burrow for the second half
Speaker 1: of the year. But you know, just because they were
Speaker 1: the lowest scoring team, that doesn't make it easier to
Speaker 1: have a bigger jump in points. So I still kind
Speaker 1: of went. I went and looked in the middle of
Speaker 1: the pack, and I looked at the Rams, who averaged
Speaker 1: twenty three point six points every game last year after
Speaker 1: averaging more than twenty nine um. So I think they
Speaker 1: get back to that level where, of course Jared Goff
Speaker 1: was the quarterback for the Rams, also the quarterback for
Speaker 1: the Rams last year when they average twenty three point
Speaker 1: six points per game, the Lions average more points than
Speaker 1: the Rams. Last year, the Lions average more that the
Speaker 1: Rams defense. This is gonna be as good this year.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go there, but yes, with Matt Stafford quarterback,
Speaker 1: the Lions average more points than the Rams. Of course,
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford now the quarterback for the Rams, so I
Speaker 1: see a six point nine point increase for the Rams.
Speaker 1: So the average three point two points for games this
Speaker 1: year nine time which NFL offense will see the biggest
Speaker 1: increase in points scored from last year to this year.
Speaker 1: I had a couple of thoughts. San Franz was my
Speaker 1: first thought, but I'm worried that Jimmy g will hang
Speaker 1: on to that job long enough that that will thwart
Speaker 1: the increase when Trey Lands gets in. UH. Washington was
Speaker 1: my second thought. They added Stu Beard and Curtis Samuel
Speaker 1: to the fold and uh they had the lowest points
Speaker 1: of the three options I was looking at. But the
Speaker 1: one that I came up with was the same as Brian's.
Speaker 1: The Rams the average only twenty three points per game.
Speaker 1: With Jared goof Matthew Staffords a huge upgrade. And by
Speaker 1: the way, you can stack this team fairly easily in drafts.
Speaker 1: You can get Woods or Cup in the fifth, Henderson
Speaker 1: in the sixth, Stafford in the late seventh, Higbie in
Speaker 1: the eleventh, Xavier Jones just as an ad on at
Speaker 1: the end of your draft. If you think the Rams
Speaker 1: offense is really gonna come back, you can get big
Speaker 1: value on all these guys by stacking the Rams. I
Speaker 1: like your answer, and it's a little outside of it's
Speaker 1: a little outside of the box because I thought you'd
Speaker 1: go right to the bottom of points scored last year
Speaker 1: and find teams are going to get better, like Washington
Speaker 1: or Cincinnati or the correct answer the Jets. Why Because
Speaker 1: the Jets scored fifteen points per game last year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's pretty bad. That's it. They were dead last by
Speaker 1: a mile and points per game. So there's no Adam
Speaker 1: Gates this year, So that's like next that's like a
Speaker 1: free touchdown per game of extra offense there are right now,
Speaker 1: right now, you know, So that helps right there. Then
Speaker 1: you look at all the key offseason additions to this offense.
Speaker 1: They gained a first round offensive lineman, Elijah Vera Tucker.
Speaker 1: They gained a first round quarterback, Zach Wilson went second
Speaker 1: pick of the draft. They gained rookie wide receiver Elijah Moore,
Speaker 1: who has been their star of camp. They gained new
Speaker 1: starting running back Michael Carter. They gained splashy free agent
Speaker 1: Corey Davis. You're being very generous with the star running
Speaker 1: back Michael Carter. Splash Did I say star start new
Speaker 1: starting If I miss smoke, I apologize new starting running
Speaker 1: back Michael Carter. Can't spell starting without star. And then
Speaker 1: Denzel Mims a lot of room to improve after his
Speaker 1: injury plagued rookie year. You roll all those improved together,
Speaker 1: salmon plagued off season, saving plague off season, and and
Speaker 1: you've got seven eight nine ish points of differential coming
Speaker 1: for this Jets offense because it was so bad last year.
Speaker 1: You know, if Scott Fish keeps his sleepers as fish related,
Speaker 1: he can use tough question number three. Most people believe
Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards Hilaire will improve his fantasy output this year.
Speaker 1: How much better will he be a little, a modest amount,
Speaker 1: or a lot better? Matt Um. From a rushing perspective,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have actually been a middle of the pack
Speaker 1: running team for about five years. UH Their unit averages
Speaker 1: about yards and twelve rushing scores. Last year, they still
Speaker 1: hit that yardage mark as a group, but they only
Speaker 1: got eight rushing scores and touchdowns can be a little flukey,
Speaker 1: but last year's can be attributed to those inside the
Speaker 1: five numbers that charge likes to harp on. The Chiefs
Speaker 1: only ran the ball seventeen total times inside the five.
Speaker 1: Ten of those were the running backs, and nine of
Speaker 1: those were Clyde. Uh So that's of the running back
Speaker 1: runs inside the five he did receive of the overall carries,
Speaker 1: which was the fifteenth highest average in the league. That's
Speaker 1: pretty good. The problem is is he any good by
Speaker 1: the right? Jury is still out on that. He only
Speaker 1: scored once from inside the five on nine runs. I
Speaker 1: will say some progression will happen there and he'll get
Speaker 1: more than one. So I think it will be a
Speaker 1: modest increase on Clyde. All right, So you're taking the
Speaker 1: middle up the middle, all right, Briant. How much better
Speaker 1: will Clyde Edwards Hilaire be this year? A little, a
Speaker 1: modest amount or a lot better. I'm going with modest
Speaker 1: amount too, And I'll just add one key factor in that.
Speaker 1: Uh H's best game was Week one last year, which
Speaker 1: we all remember against the Houston Texans, which allowed forty
Speaker 1: six yards and one point three touchdowns per game to
Speaker 1: running backs on the ground alone. Missed the second game
Speaker 1: against the Texans to so assuming he gets those two games,
Speaker 1: he's got to grow up a modest amount at least,
Speaker 1: but a borderline a lot. But I'm just gonna go
Speaker 1: with modest. I do think they try to keep him,
Speaker 1: you know, somewhat fresh. They're gonna work in Darryl Williams
Speaker 1: or Jerick McKinnon if they have to, But so he'll
Speaker 1: get the the majority of the touches, but not I
Speaker 1: still think we're think looking at so just a modest
Speaker 1: amount of improvement for me, I've got. I originally had
Speaker 1: a little, and then the more I dug into it,
Speaker 1: I ended up at a modest amount. Uh. And let's
Speaker 1: be clear, you he almost can't be as bad as
Speaker 1: he was last year. Is the starting running back for
Speaker 1: the second highest scoring offense. It's hard to put up
Speaker 1: a few fantasy points as he did, healthy or not.
Speaker 1: One of the things that contributes to why I like
Speaker 1: him is I think there's a lot of catches coming
Speaker 1: for him this year. Sammy Watkins for all of his issues,
Speaker 1: was still good for five targets a game, and that
Speaker 1: means he's going to I I don't believe Byring Pringle,
Speaker 1: Nicole Hardman are gonna suddenly turn into volume hogs. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of that's actually gonna go to Clyde
Speaker 1: Edwards Hilaire, who is a gifted receiver who didn't get
Speaker 1: used enough that way last year. And the figure he'll
Speaker 1: be a better runner in year two, he's just got
Speaker 1: to be. The running was just okay. We haven't seen
Speaker 1: the best of Edwards Hilaire yet. We haven't. We we
Speaker 1: got to believe that there's a better year than what
Speaker 1: we saw in his rookie season based on what we
Speaker 1: saw in college. There's better days ahead of him as
Speaker 1: a runner. The problem, like you can't get him to
Speaker 1: a lot is the touchdowns. It's just he's got a
Speaker 1: score from distance. He's just so small and that's why
Speaker 1: you just you know, the fantasy output gets capped for him.
Speaker 1: And so Clyde Edwards a laire right now, going late
Speaker 1: second round, early third round, that's kind of a lot
Speaker 1: to pay. I mean, you're baking in the you're baking
Speaker 1: in that modest improvement at that ADP. I gotta call
Speaker 1: myself out because someone is probably gonna do it on Twitter.
Speaker 1: I don't know why preseason. I'm in preseason for him
Speaker 1: some of the time. The Chiefs don't play the Texans
Speaker 1: twice a year. I don't know. I thought that. You know,
Speaker 1: we just let that slip. Yeah, I'm sure you caught
Speaker 1: it over there. You would have loved you have called
Speaker 1: me out on that immediately. If you know we're being
Speaker 1: kind to you were such. The Guillotine League format works
Speaker 1: like this. Eighteen teams start the season every week, no
Speaker 1: head to head. Every week, the low scoring team gets
Speaker 1: cut and their entire roster goes to the waiver wire,
Speaker 1: and pandemonium ensues for the rest of us that are
Speaker 1: still alive as we harvest the bounty of that entire roster.
Speaker 1: Do you spend a bunch of your free agent bidding
Speaker 1: money early? Do you save it for later? Tons of
Speaker 1: strategy in the Guillotine League. All you have to do
Speaker 1: is not be last. It's the Guillotine Leagues at Guillotine
Speaker 1: leagues dot Com. When we come back, players we love
Speaker 1: and never draft will tell you the players we love
Speaker 1: and never draft, and we come back Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: It's Fantasy Football Weekly, Ball Chargie and Matt Harrison and
Speaker 1: Brian Johnson with you. A lot of times. There are
Speaker 1: players out there who we legitimately love, but because of
Speaker 1: where they're getting drafted, we never end up with them
Speaker 1: for any of a variety of reasons. We're gonna give
Speaker 1: you each a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight
Speaker 1: end from each of your three hosts here that we
Speaker 1: players we like, we want to have on our team
Speaker 1: and we never end up drafting. We begin with Matt
Speaker 1: who is your quarterback you love and never got. It's
Speaker 1: a guy have on one of my dynasty leagues. It's
Speaker 1: good old Russell Wilson, who's going off the board in
Speaker 1: the fifth round or right now. I'm a little nervous
Speaker 1: about Seattle. They have a new offensive coordinator, Shane walden Uh.
Speaker 1: He's receiving the standard rave reviews from everybody at Seahawks camp,
Speaker 1: but you hear things like his offense is very large
Speaker 1: and complex, and then Pete Carroll's sing. Coach Walsh always
Speaker 1: said it's not how many things you can do, but
Speaker 1: how many things you can do well. That's kind of
Speaker 1: conflicting to me about your new offensive coordinator a little,
Speaker 1: a little bit so last year's let Russ Cook movement
Speaker 1: lasted until Week nine against Buffalo, when the Hawks dropped
Speaker 1: a game to the Bills. And then it was Russ's
Speaker 1: seventh game in eight where he passed for two sixty
Speaker 1: more yards and multiple scores. And then after that game,
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll was like, oh, we lost, Let's go back
Speaker 1: to a run heavy system. And then Russell Wilson topped
Speaker 1: the two six yard mark just once in his final
Speaker 1: eight games and through from multiple scores and only three
Speaker 1: of the final eight. A complex offense, a head coach
Speaker 1: who's known for throwing passing strategy out the window when
Speaker 1: things get tough, and a really tough second half schedule
Speaker 1: makes me not want to draft Russ again in the
Speaker 1: fifth round. I like just an Air Bear, who I
Speaker 1: was mentioning, and Aaron Rodgers. Those are the next two
Speaker 1: guys in a DP. I like them a lot better
Speaker 1: than Russell Wilson. All Right, Brian, who is a quarterback
Speaker 1: you love but never end up drafting well, is a
Speaker 1: huge Bengals fan. I obviously love Joe Burrow, but I
Speaker 1: do not love him in fantasy. This year going off
Speaker 1: the board at quarterback fourteen, which sounds late, but it's
Speaker 1: really not this year when guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick are
Speaker 1: going outside the top twenty quarterbacks and you have him
Speaker 1: pegged as a QB one. So I'm waiting. I'm I'm
Speaker 1: fading Burrow at QB fourteen. It's the obvious concerns coming
Speaker 1: back from major injury last year. Uh basically to be
Speaker 1: hung out to dry behind the same bad offensive line
Speaker 1: that got him essentially murdered last year. They added Jamaar Chase,
Speaker 1: which is nice, but they really should not have. They
Speaker 1: should have added another lineman. They're already pretty pretty set
Speaker 1: at wide receiver. I could be very wrong here. Burrow
Speaker 1: has a very high ceiling if you can stay healthy,
Speaker 1: but just way too much risk to mitigate for me
Speaker 1: this year. Uh. So I'm just off of Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: going as a QB fourteen, way too early for me.
Speaker 1: There's a lot more stable options going later than him.
Speaker 1: I love this player and I want him on my team,
Speaker 1: but I can't take him in the fifth round. Bear,
Speaker 1: didn't you hear? He's gonna finish this quarterback quarterback too?
Speaker 1: And and he might. I love the kid, and he's
Speaker 1: going to be He's he's I think the part of
Speaker 1: his game nobody ever talks about or doesn't talk about enough.
Speaker 1: He's pretty fleet of foot. He's going to have some
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns that I don't think people are really accounting
Speaker 1: for in their mind. Um it's the problem is the
Speaker 1: fifth round. You know, for me and my draft strategy,
Speaker 1: as you guys know, I'm not locked into running backs early.
Speaker 1: I'm usually pivoting away from running backs. Fifth round is
Speaker 1: when I'm taking running backs. And this is you know,
Speaker 1: right when I'm right, when I'm just basically starting my
Speaker 1: three round running back run is right here. So you're
Speaker 1: much more likely to get Patrick Mahomes early and then
Speaker 1: be filling up on running backs at that point you
Speaker 1: are correct, or even more commonly, I'm waiting for Ryan
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick or you know, I can wait three, four or
Speaker 1: five more rounds and get guys like Kirk Cousins, Ryan
Speaker 1: Tannehill with a tenth round a DP know, those are
Speaker 1: really good quarterbacks and I can get much later. And
Speaker 1: if you're going to take a quarterback early, like seventh
Speaker 1: rounder earlier, it's got to be somebody that you think
Speaker 1: has a different making number one quarterback overall pedigree. That
Speaker 1: is correct, and I love I love Justin air Bear,
Speaker 1: but I'm not positive that's him. All right, Let's go
Speaker 1: to the running back position. Matt who is a running
Speaker 1: back you love but never end up drafting. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's been a bell cow for a long time and
Speaker 1: a lot of people have won championships on the backs
Speaker 1: of Ezekiel elliott Um. I mentioned it before. He's had
Speaker 1: He's averaged three thirty touches over his last five seasons.
Speaker 1: But what have we started to see? The decline already
Speaker 1: from three rushing attemptsen to only two forty four last year,
Speaker 1: a decline in rushing scores from twelve to six. The
Speaker 1: yards per carry averages went from four point seven and
Speaker 1: ten to four point five to a pedestrian four point
Speaker 1: oh last year. That is worth. That's worrisome. And the
Speaker 1: offensive line is not as good as it used to be.
Speaker 1: DA's injuries to his ankle and now shoulder have to
Speaker 1: make you stop and think you don't want Ben Denucci
Speaker 1: starting opposite Zeke in the backfield. There's a good seven
Speaker 1: to ten players I take before I take Zeke in
Speaker 1: the middle of the first round. I concur Brian who's
Speaker 1: the running back that you love but will not draft
Speaker 1: love Nick Chubb in real life. I just can't go
Speaker 1: there in fantasy, even though he's going his RB ten
Speaker 1: like an early second mid second round pick. Pretty good value,
Speaker 1: but especially in a run heavy offense like Cleveland. But
Speaker 1: if it's not PPR and I that's what I play
Speaker 1: and most people play these days. I just can't get
Speaker 1: on board with Chubb. Just hate the receiving work that
Speaker 1: he sees or lack lack thereof. I should say, only
Speaker 1: twelve games played last year, but sixteen catches in those
Speaker 1: twelve games for Nick Chubb's gross uh and his two
Speaker 1: seasons prior, Chub average less than two catches per game
Speaker 1: in thirty two games two full seasons, one point seven
Speaker 1: five catches per game. His two lone career receiving touchdowns
Speaker 1: came back in hasn't caught a touchdown with the last
Speaker 1: two seasons. So I just I need more receiving work
Speaker 1: out of a running back I'm taking in the first
Speaker 1: two rounds, and I just can't go there with you. Guys,
Speaker 1: don't sound like you love the player at all. Okay,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of respect for these points, respect the player,
Speaker 1: not the draft position. Maybe we should rename it next year. Um,
Speaker 1: I like that we all took first round running backs
Speaker 1: for this. Christian McCaffrey is my love the player, hate
Speaker 1: the average draft position chart. You're just gonna say, because
Speaker 1: I'm not drafting first, because I finished so well in
Speaker 1: all of my leagues last year, I'm never getting him. Hey,
Speaker 1: I do. I never randomly get the first pick. I
Speaker 1: never get the first pick. Um. But more importantly, if
Speaker 1: I do get that first pick, I believe firmly the
Speaker 1: best thing you can do is trade back to the
Speaker 1: middle of the first round in the first two rounds.
Speaker 1: So I'd rather have a middle round pick in rounds
Speaker 1: one and rounds two. And you'll find plenty of people
Speaker 1: who want to make that deal, So you have no
Speaker 1: problem going back to six or seven. And then at
Speaker 1: that stage, I can you know, I get the sixth
Speaker 1: and eighth player instead of the first and the player,
Speaker 1: And for me, it's a trade off. I'd like that's
Speaker 1: a trade off I'm very willing to make. Um, why
Speaker 1: not just take Christian McCaffrey and be happy? Well, here,
Speaker 1: there are some there are some things you should think
Speaker 1: about a terrible offensive line in the conversation for the
Speaker 1: worst in the league. UM Pro Football Focus projects the
Speaker 1: Carolina offensive line to be the third worst this year.
Speaker 1: A good runner can overcome a lot with their bad
Speaker 1: offensive line. But he's still mortal, and there could be
Speaker 1: some inconsistent play there. And then you know last year
Speaker 1: ankle injury, shoulder injury, thigh injury. There, No, that's a lot,
Speaker 1: and so there are reasons that you can pass on
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey. I never end up with him. Love the player,
Speaker 1: hate the average draft position. Let's go to the wide
Speaker 1: receiver position. Give me a player you love and never
Speaker 1: end up with Matt It's a guy tried to acquire
Speaker 1: a lot last year because I really actually do respect
Speaker 1: him as a player on the field. It's Tyler Lockett
Speaker 1: who's going off in the fifth round. If you can
Speaker 1: guarantee me double digit targets for Tyler Lockett in every game, yeah, if, yeah,
Speaker 1: then I'll take him because he's sink or swim in
Speaker 1: the last two years. In the six total games where
Speaker 1: he's had ten or more targets out of thirty two
Speaker 1: that is yeah, he's averaging eleven point six receptions and
Speaker 1: twenty nine yards and one point eight touchdowns per game.
Speaker 1: In the other twenty six games with nine or fewer targets,
Speaker 1: he's averaging four point three receptions, fifty one yards, and
Speaker 1: a quarter of a touchdown per game. That's gross. If
Speaker 1: he's not getting ten targets per game, which only does
Speaker 1: an eighteen percent of his game. He's Marquez Valdez, Scantling
Speaker 1: or Christian Kirk or Keelan Cole. That's all he is.
Speaker 1: So he's not a guy I'm going to take in
Speaker 1: the fifth round. I'm gonna take guys later in the
Speaker 1: draft too. I can get that kind of flyer on
Speaker 1: Brian a player you respect but don't respect the average
Speaker 1: draft position at wide receiver Julio Jones now of the
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. Of course, going in the late teens among
Speaker 1: wide receivers, that is way way too early for me.
Speaker 1: We mentioned uh well, first off, the Titans offense still
Speaker 1: revolves around Derrick Henry. He is the catalyst that makes
Speaker 1: it go. Yes, they will throw, but the top target,
Speaker 1: of course is a J. Brown is not Julio Jones.
Speaker 1: And we know the top target in the red zone
Speaker 1: is not Julio Jones. On any number has been mentioned.
Speaker 1: The one target that he did not catch, by the
Speaker 1: way with Atlanta last year, But going back four years,
Speaker 1: maybe this was a Matt Ryan thing that I don't well,
Speaker 1: we could see. I'm gonna go with what I Saffer
Speaker 1: Bryan might help him out. I don't know about that.
Speaker 1: Uh So over the last four years, um, Julio is
Speaker 1: averaging less than four catches a year from inside the
Speaker 1: ten yard line. Last season, there were thirty different wide
Speaker 1: receivers who had more than four catches inside the ten
Speaker 1: yard line. Dirty and Julio. I mean that's enough right there, Guys.
Speaker 1: I like way more than Julio Jones going later, Chris Godwin,
Speaker 1: d J. Moore, Odell Beckham going much later than Julio Jones.
Speaker 1: He's just going way too early in drafts for me
Speaker 1: not touching him. That doesn't sound like you like him,
Speaker 1: respect him. I respect him as a as a human. Well,
Speaker 1: how can you say you like Christian McCaffrey when you
Speaker 1: said you wouldna, I like he's a great player. Iverything
Speaker 1: for the same thing for Julio Jones. I don't see
Speaker 1: he's a bad player. I'm just not drafting him at
Speaker 1: that ADP I don't see the difference here. The player
Speaker 1: I love and hate the average draft position is Chase Claypool. Currently,
Speaker 1: do you want Chase Claypool on your team? Well, I mean,
Speaker 1: but not at the age and not at the ADP.
Speaker 1: I'm not willing to each the Total Beast by taking
Speaker 1: crazy pills here like the exact same things. But I'm
Speaker 1: saying about I'll trade to Chase Claypool and my dynasty league.
Speaker 1: Let's go come on, Uh, total Beast, the big body right,
Speaker 1: the leaping ability, Uh, they go up and get it.
Speaker 1: I like so much about Chase Claypool's game. See this
Speaker 1: is how I'm different than you, Brian. I'm explaining why
Speaker 1: he's a great player. I worry about things around to
Speaker 1: Chase Claypool that I have nothing to do with him.
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger's rapid decline last season, does that continue or
Speaker 1: get worse this season? I worry about the Steelers offensive
Speaker 1: line limiting the overall production of this offense. And Chase
Speaker 1: Claypool's average draft positions round seven. I'm so busy drafting
Speaker 1: running backs to round seven. So you know this, I've
Speaker 1: already got my great, great receivers. I don't need to
Speaker 1: roll the dice on a guy with the question marks
Speaker 1: that Chase Claypool has got. Alright, our final round of
Speaker 1: love the player hate the average draft position goes to
Speaker 1: the tight end position, and Matt I have Mark Andrews,
Speaker 1: who's going off in the fifth round. And it's really
Speaker 1: nothing against Mark Andrews's just more of a tear based thing.
Speaker 1: Last year in PPR standard scoring leagues, Travis Kelsey average
Speaker 1: twenty point eight points per game, Waller average seventeen and
Speaker 1: a half, and George Kittle averaged fifteen point six in
Speaker 1: his limited involvement. Then you move down a whole bunch
Speaker 1: and Mark Andrews is the next player at twelve point too.
Speaker 1: But the problem is there's ten other tight ends that
Speaker 1: finished between ten and twelve PPR points. That's a pretty
Speaker 1: big swath of tight ends there with very similar production.
Speaker 1: I can get Mike Gesicki six rounds later. He had
Speaker 1: five fewer catches, the exact same amount of yards and
Speaker 1: one fewer touchdown then Mark Andrews. So it's more about
Speaker 1: I don't like that tier, and I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the guys at the back end of that tier six
Speaker 1: rounds later than Mark Andrews. I see, that's a perfect
Speaker 1: there's a perfect answer. That's a player you like with
Speaker 1: a Ratchell. It's not because he's not a good player, Brian,
Speaker 1: I never said I did like Julio Jones. You dead
Speaker 1: we Cannibal all right? Who is the tight end you love?
Speaker 1: But never end up Ard? I just hate guts at
Speaker 1: tight end seven. I'm not drafting stupid Dallas Goddard. But
Speaker 1: Dallas Goddard is my answer. He's clinging to that secondary
Speaker 1: top tier of tight ends that I think you were mentioning.
Speaker 1: I think he's the last guy in and I don't
Speaker 1: like pick up the last guy in a tier or
Speaker 1: the first guy in the forthcoming tier. Um, I'd rather
Speaker 1: wait much later on tight ends of I'm contemplaining a
Speaker 1: guy like Goddard, who was strong in the second half
Speaker 1: last year. Uh, and that is when Jalen Hurts was
Speaker 1: playing quarterback for the most part for Philly, but zach
Speaker 1: Ertz was also hurt. Then, Uh, he's back, He's still
Speaker 1: in Philly. Looked pretty good on Thursday night, by the
Speaker 1: way zach Ertz did. Philly also added a weapon in
Speaker 1: DeVante Smith and uh, long story short, just Goddard at
Speaker 1: tight ends seven. We need arts to get hurt again.
Speaker 1: We need all the wide receivers to fall apart again,
Speaker 1: which is quite possible. But and I know you're not
Speaker 1: sold on Jalen Hurts as a passer either, nor am I.
Speaker 1: Although I'll be fair, I liked what I saw Thursday
Speaker 1: night Hurts. I'm starting to warm up a little bit
Speaker 1: surprised Brian didn't say everybody but Darren Waller and Dan
Speaker 1: Arnold everybody else. It's kind of true. I know what
Speaker 1: I'm talking about, the tight end. The tight end I adore,
Speaker 1: but I never end up. Why do you adore him
Speaker 1: so much? Because it's George kittle Oh he's so good,
Speaker 1: obviously a great and a freakish talent, and there's so
Speaker 1: much to like about him. But the problem is, if
Speaker 1: I'm spending an early round pick on tight end, I
Speaker 1: want Kelsey or Waller, who I like even more at
Speaker 1: least this season. And there's some other factors as well.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know where he's going early. Third round
Speaker 1: is where you have to pick George kittle Man. There's
Speaker 1: some great wide receivers available, like a J. Brown and
Speaker 1: Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin, or runners like Chris Carson
Speaker 1: or j K. Dobbins, or I can have quarterback one again,
Speaker 1: have Patrick Mahomes, who earlier in this show I said
Speaker 1: could set the old time passing record for yards and
Speaker 1: touchdowns this year. So I just to be there's so
Speaker 1: many other options. I'm not spending that early third round
Speaker 1: pick on my on my third favorite tight end. Now
Speaker 1: that's a great answer, charge job, I GA, there's no
Speaker 1: difference in the theme of any of our answers. But okay,
Speaker 1: that is that is so not true. When we come
Speaker 1: back our final segment, we'll talk about some strategies for
Speaker 1: playing guillotine leagues, our favorite sleepers this year, and plenty
Speaker 1: more when we come back. Fantasy Football Weekly returns final
Speaker 1: segment of Fantasy fook A Weekly. Do you miss any
Speaker 1: part of this show? Not only is it an over
Speaker 1: the air broadcast, it is also a podcast, Fantasy Football Weekly,
Speaker 1: available on every platform that services podcasts, including the I
Speaker 1: Heart Radio app. I Am Paul charging my co host
Speaker 1: or Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison. Final segment. We always
Speaker 1: unveil a sleeper each Last week, I gave you Gus Edwards,
Speaker 1: which was brilliant. If I may say so myself, I've
Speaker 1: got another sure fire sleeper for you coming up in moments.
Speaker 1: But first, Brian Johnson, You're sleeper this week is you're
Speaker 1: obviously getting Dan Arnold from me and my first big show.
Speaker 1: That's not even a sleeper. Everybody's awake him if they've
Speaker 1: been listening to this show. People are very woke that
Speaker 1: have been listening to me about Dan Arnold. It's only
Speaker 1: gonna get better as time goes By was virtually going
Speaker 1: undrafted earlier in the summer unless I was in the league.
Speaker 1: But he has creeped up to draftable eight teen UH
Speaker 1: round leagues, which is very standard, especially in best ball um.
Speaker 1: Back to Arnold UH tight end twenty one. Last season
Speaker 1: with Arizona, missed a couple of games, only saw forty
Speaker 1: five targets. Now, to put that into perspective, guys like Hunter,
Speaker 1: Henry Noah, Fan, Dalton Schultz, Mike Sicky, Eric Ebron, they
Speaker 1: saw roughly ninety targets. Arnold saw half of that ninety targets.
Speaker 1: It's like, it's a good thing that your guy was
Speaker 1: only targeted times. It was in Arizona. They don't utilize
Speaker 1: their tight ends very much. And I'm not so sure
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury knows what he's doing. But I like the
Speaker 1: volume he's gonna see in Carolina, and I'm gonna just
Speaker 1: gonna double the production he had on those forty five
Speaker 1: targets to the ninety that he'll at least see in Carolina.
Speaker 1: That would come out to sixty catches, eight eighty yards
Speaker 1: and eight touchdowns. Arnold had three targets inside the ten
Speaker 1: yard line last year, just three scored on all three
Speaker 1: of them. He was number one among all tight ends
Speaker 1: and average depth of target he was ninth and yards
Speaker 1: after the catch per reception. He's going to see the
Speaker 1: ball a lot in this off fence and he's virtually
Speaker 1: unguardable in the ends of I'm not kidding you, I'm
Speaker 1: saying it. So Dan Arnold, do not let him go
Speaker 1: undrafted in your drafts. Get him at the end. I
Speaker 1: like Curtis that Curtis Samuel's gone. That could open up
Speaker 1: some middle of the field stuff for Dan Arnold. And
Speaker 1: people might say, you know, Christian McCaffrey was back, that's
Speaker 1: bad for d J. Moore and all the receivers. D J.
Speaker 1: Moore was wide receiver nine and twenty nine team when
Speaker 1: McCaffrey had the record setting season and he fell off
Speaker 1: entirely without So what's with McCaffrey back? That opens things
Speaker 1: up for all the pass catchers. I can really see
Speaker 1: how that comparison between DJ Moore effects Dan Arnold. An
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator Joe Brady was with Dan Arnold in New Orleans.
Speaker 1: He won't he went out and how did he use?
Speaker 1: He was a raw rookie who was a converted wide receiver.
Speaker 1: You always say, don't look at last year, right charge,
Speaker 1: you're looking back now two years now and trying he's
Speaker 1: on the trajectory to the moon. You heard it here first.
Speaker 1: I heard it at first last year. Matt, who is
Speaker 1: your sleeper? This week? I'm gonna talk a little history
Speaker 1: to um. Darnell Mooney is my sleeper. You can get
Speaker 1: him in the eleventh or twelfth round right now. Remember
Speaker 1: when I was talking about Tyler Lockett and his double
Speaker 1: digit target games, Well, Lockett had three last year and
Speaker 1: Mooney had to. In fact, since Darnell Mooney's targets last year,
Speaker 1: we're good for seventh amongst rookie wide receivers target share
Speaker 1: in their rookie year right. Um, Now, the guy has
Speaker 1: never had a one yard game and he only scored
Speaker 1: four times last year, but he was catching balls from
Speaker 1: Nick Foles and Sad trombone ski. M hm. The upgrade
Speaker 1: to Andy Dalton is one thing, but the upgrade to
Speaker 1: Justin Fields is a whole another thing. And Fields and
Speaker 1: Mooney they're often seen together at Bears camp developing. Maybe
Speaker 1: possibly people aren't thinking about him because he didn't have
Speaker 1: that one huge outing last year. He's gonna have several
Speaker 1: of them this year. He needed to finish it off.
Speaker 1: I look, I'm going to have very few chances to
Speaker 1: play my trombo and stuff this year. That's what you think.
Speaker 1: Unless something awful happens to Josh Allen and let's not
Speaker 1: let's hope it doesn't come to going off in the
Speaker 1: twelve round is quarterback eighteen is trail tray, Lance, He
Speaker 1: is going player four in your draft tray Lance. Um, Yes,
Speaker 1: he's gonna eat up the roster spot, a roster spot
Speaker 1: for a while. So if you're in if you're in
Speaker 1: a league with thin roster spots, I can understand where
Speaker 1: maybe you can't take a guy who's not going to
Speaker 1: start for a while. But you know, really it's around twelve.
Speaker 1: How many guys have like league winning upside in round twelve?
Speaker 1: Not many? But he does. And why does tray Lance
Speaker 1: have league winning upside? You might say, well, number one
Speaker 1: monster arm capable of stretching the field. Number two three
Speaker 1: excellent receivers, George Kittle, Brandon Ayuk and Deebo Samuel. All
Speaker 1: three are excellent. He's got running backs who can catch
Speaker 1: and you can throw there. But what makes tray Lance
Speaker 1: a league buster is the rushing yard potential. That's the
Speaker 1: secret sauce for fantasy quarterbacks who put up gigantic games,
Speaker 1: and that could be coming for tray Lance as well.
Speaker 1: So then the next question might be, well, okay, but
Speaker 1: how long do I gotta hold him? Then? To get
Speaker 1: to this point, I think he could start as early
Speaker 1: as Week seven. San Francis has got the earliest bye
Speaker 1: week they've got Week six? Is there bye week? The
Speaker 1: three games before the Week six by San Francisco plays
Speaker 1: green Bay that was a thirteen win operation last year,
Speaker 1: Seattle a twelve win team, and Arizona that was an
Speaker 1: eight win team, they could easily. San Francisco could lose
Speaker 1: two of those three games head into the by and
Speaker 1: start Trey Lance. Week seven. One of the Niners beat
Speaker 1: reporters has logged all of Garoppolo's throws, all of Tray
Speaker 1: Lances throws throughout camp through midweek of this past week.
Speaker 1: Garoppolo a sixty two percent completion rate, six interceptions and
Speaker 1: six touchdowns. I think we mentioned this, we did. And
Speaker 1: Trey Lance completion rates ten touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and
Speaker 1: two interceptions. You roll all that together, it looks to
Speaker 1: me like Trey Lance is gonna win that job now,
Speaker 1: in fairness Garoppolo's cocaine camp. But here's the beauty of it.
Speaker 1: Think about this, executing this option. Take Trey Lance in
Speaker 1: week sorry, round twelve, Take Jimmy Garoppolo in round eighteen,
Speaker 1: and go to world with the Niners quarterback all season.
Speaker 1: You get Kyle, You get a Kyle Shanahan lad quarterback.
Speaker 1: All that talent, all the all the receiving options sounds
Speaker 1: good to me. I'm on board. I gotta take Dan
Speaker 1: Arnold in the eighteenth, so I can. You probably have
Speaker 1: to take him in the seventeenth. Now, look what you've done, Brian,
Speaker 1: You're gonna personally move the needle. You know, I'll reach
Speaker 1: around on Dan Arnold anything, Brian. Let's talk about some
Speaker 1: strategies for those dabbling in a guillotine league for the
Speaker 1: first time, and especially draft related strategy. Do you want
Speaker 1: to go over with a guillotine league is real quickly? Yeah,
Speaker 1: sure I do. You start the season with eighteen teams.
Speaker 1: This is a whole new format, and you don't play
Speaker 1: any head to head and instead, at the end of
Speaker 1: week each week, the low scoring team gets cut and
Speaker 1: their entire roster goes to the waiver wire and at
Speaker 1: that point, everybody, you know, never in fantasy football do
Speaker 1: you end up in a scenario where the waiver wears
Speaker 1: anything other than just dropped players flots some guys that
Speaker 1: you know might have a chance to rend your reason
Speaker 1: you never get like here's Alvin Kmara and Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: and Keenan Allen and yeah, se Kwon Barkley is going
Speaker 1: to be a guy hitting the waiver wear very often.
Speaker 1: He could in the first month of the season, yes
Speaker 1: he could. And well, you know what, it's funny you
Speaker 1: say that. So you're in the guillotine that you're playing
Speaker 1: not to lose because I have to do is not finished.
Speaker 1: Last you get nothing from being the highest scoring team
Speaker 1: that week. No, you just don't be last in any
Speaker 1: given week. So the whole profile of your draft should
Speaker 1: it change, and if it doesn't, you're doing it wrong. Matt,
Speaker 1: you hit on one of the key elements of Guillotine
Speaker 1: League drafting strategy, and it's safety. Um. I have a
Speaker 1: Guillotine League cheat sheet as well over at shock Fantasy
Speaker 1: dot com where we map out the first couple of
Speaker 1: weeks of the schedule. I believe it's just like yours charge. Um.
Speaker 1: We got the a DP from from your Guillotine League
Speaker 1: site on there as well, And there's guys that I punished,
Speaker 1: like way way way down like Sae Kwon Barkley, who
Speaker 1: I have as my number twenty two running back on
Speaker 1: my cheat sheet. He's down that low because he gets Denver, Washington, Atlanta,
Speaker 1: New Orleans in the first four weeks, and three of
Speaker 1: those four were top eight defenses against running backs. Like
Speaker 1: we don't even know coming off the a c L,
Speaker 1: Sae Kwon Barkley going to be healthy at all? And
Speaker 1: exactly maybe if he's not healthy, he's not what's his
Speaker 1: workload going to be? Like something going to be diminished?
Speaker 1: Somebody in your Guillotine league is gonna go se Kwon Barkley,
Speaker 1: and I'm pick seventeen in the draft. They're going to
Speaker 1: take him. They're going to regret that decision because your
Speaker 1: strategy is don't be last, be second to last every week.
Speaker 1: If you're second to last every week, you'll win the league.
Speaker 1: The better saying is if you ain't last your first
Speaker 1: that's right every week. And now, I don't want to
Speaker 1: any cheat sheet beef between you guys, but like Matt said,
Speaker 1: you definitely want to target safety, avoid risk, especially very
Speaker 1: early on in the season, and chart your premium cheat
Speaker 1: sheet on guillotine dot com. Many things is like strength
Speaker 1: of schedule through weeks one through four, like se Kuon Barkley,
Speaker 1: who you said, I can see very clearly. I get
Speaker 1: the beef coded cheat sheet that s Kuon Barkley is
Speaker 1: the seventh hardest strength of schedule for running backs weeks
Speaker 1: one through four, so I'm all out on him. I'm
Speaker 1: also seeing data broke down just how players finished in
Speaker 1: the first half of the season based on the last
Speaker 1: half of the season last year, what percentage of their
Speaker 1: games are inside the top twelve based on outside of
Speaker 1: the top thirty very useful information on charge of premium
Speaker 1: GAIETA lead cheat sheets. So yeah, you got to avoid
Speaker 1: the risk, target the safety and other things you don't
Speaker 1: want to do in a GAIA team league's draft. Unlike
Speaker 1: best Ball, where you kind of want to stack teams
Speaker 1: and go all in on teams to get a high
Speaker 1: school you you spread out in gay team leagues. You
Speaker 1: don't want to buy your portfolio exactly, much better way
Speaker 1: to put it, even it's even if it's the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: You don't want to put all your eggs in one
Speaker 1: basket because if they roll over dead one week, you're
Speaker 1: get and beheaded. So yeah, don't stack the same teams
Speaker 1: and and just draft smart because you want to save
Speaker 1: your FAB as long as possible going into this season.
Speaker 1: You're gonna be tempted to spend big bucks on Alvin
Speaker 1: Kamara if he's on the waiver wire in Week two.
Speaker 1: But the longer you hold your FAB and control the
Speaker 1: board in that regard, the more power you have moving
Speaker 1: along in this season. I think it's important that you
Speaker 1: guys mentioned the fab part, and maybe we haven't explained
Speaker 1: that quite well enough. You get a thousand dollars worth
Speaker 1: of free agent bidding allowance for the year, but you
Speaker 1: get it for the year, so you get one thousand
Speaker 1: for the year, not for every week, just for the
Speaker 1: whole year. You could spend nine dollars on Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: if he becomes available, but then you've got a hundred
Speaker 1: dollars for the rest of the year and you're probably
Speaker 1: not getting anything good until the very very end of
Speaker 1: the year. Another drafting strategy. Another drafting tip um look
Speaker 1: out for rookies very dangerous in guilloteen leagues because you're
Speaker 1: trying to survive, especially through the early weeks of this
Speaker 1: season when everybody because there's eighteen teams in the Guillotine League,
Speaker 1: your roster is not great. You're just trying to survive
Speaker 1: for the first month of the season so you can
Speaker 1: hit the waiver wire and get more help and build
Speaker 1: up a better roster. And rookies. As much as we
Speaker 1: love rookies like Javonte Williams, I think it's gonna be great,
Speaker 1: But is he gonna be great in September? Maybe not.
Speaker 1: Look at Jonathan Taylor last year. He was not a
Speaker 1: reliable starter until December. And so rookies are guys that
Speaker 1: you need to be careful about. And one other element
Speaker 1: for from a drafting strategy for guillotine leagues. So you
Speaker 1: should know you gotta pay attention to the bye weeks. Normally,
Speaker 1: in my redrafts, I don't pay, I don't care. But
Speaker 1: if you you want to avoid early by weeks because
Speaker 1: your team's wobbly at the beginning of the year, and
Speaker 1: when you've take Says and Saints that have a week
Speaker 1: six by that earliest buys, you don't you know when
Speaker 1: you're losing Alvin Kamara, you don't have a replacement who's
Speaker 1: very good by week six and all probability. And if
Speaker 1: you've got three or four starters that have weeks six,
Speaker 1: you've got a huge problem them on your hands. Yeah
Speaker 1: you said, uh. In redraft a players standalone by virtually
Speaker 1: worthless information. But in a guy tea league, very very
Speaker 1: important to pay attention to win their bias. Not only
Speaker 1: that bye week stacking is terrible. You don't want to
Speaker 1: do the bye week stacking, but the later the bye week,
Speaker 1: the longer you have that player. So targeting players with
Speaker 1: weeks thirteen and fourteen buys it's actually a valuable tiebreaker
Speaker 1: when you're looking at two players absolutely Guillotine league dot
Speaker 1: com for all of that and more public leagues, private
Speaker 1: leagues to your friends. However, you like to play your
Speaker 1: guillotine leagues at guillotine leagues dot com. Uh. Thanks everybody,
Speaker 1: appreciate listening. Matt Ryan, great job. Thank you have any
Speaker 1: part of the show. Check out our podcast, available on
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