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Speaker 3: Gina Martin Adams warned us yesterday that yesterday's rally did
Speaker 3: not give her too much comfort. I think I'm saying
Speaker 3: it's safely based on our models, their data dependent. Her
Speaker 3: view and concerns about the equity outlook has not changed.
Speaker 3: So let's just see what our thoughts are today. Gina is,
Speaker 3: of course, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief equity strategists.
Speaker 4: Did I say it right, that's right, all right?
Speaker 5: No?
Speaker 4: But did did I say you're warning you?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's close enough.
Speaker 7: You know, it's smitted to a minute these days, Carol,
Speaker 7: So so how do you make sense?
Speaker 4: Yeah, like the rally yesterday, right, it wasn't free.
Speaker 8: She basically you came in, You basically shook your head
Speaker 8: at the rally yesterday and you said, anytime we see
Speaker 8: a move up such as this, it's not a good thing. Yeah,
Speaker 8: And you pointed to two thousand and eight, and you said,
Speaker 8: and sure enough, the superlative was going back to two
Speaker 8: thousand and eight. You reminded all of us the market
Speaker 8: did not bottom until March of two thousand and nine.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 7: This is something we did earlier this week is just
Speaker 7: looking at these major capitulation moments in the S and P.
Speaker 7: Five hundred and put them in context of what's happening
Speaker 7: in the fundamentals. And what you do find is that
Speaker 7: the big, big sell off vic Spike's capitulation moments, whatever
Speaker 7: you want to call it, in the midst of economic distress,
Speaker 7: tend to happen way earlier than the ultimate bottom occurs.
Speaker 7: Whereas you can use things like capitulation vix, pairwise correlations,
Speaker 7: whatever technicals you love to show capitulation, you can use
Speaker 7: those for timing bottoms when the bottoms are of little
Speaker 7: minor ten percent correction that are not necessarily affiliated with
Speaker 7: major economic distress. But the simple fact that we're in
Speaker 7: this period of extraordinary uncertainty, and our other models are
Speaker 7: more fundamentally oriented models are telling us that the economic
Speaker 7: downside has really yet to be fully priced in the
Speaker 7: S and P five hundred. That kind of context would
Speaker 7: suggest to us we could be in for a longer
Speaker 7: and more extended period of volatility, even if the volatility
Speaker 7: never reaches the levels that we got with Liberation Day.
Speaker 3: So even though we're like off our lows, I mean, like,
Speaker 3: how how are you thinking about like how we end
Speaker 3: up today and what's important coming off of yesterday's rally.
Speaker 7: I think the most important thing to watch right now,
Speaker 7: frankly is fundamentals. I think that the market is going
Speaker 7: to be volatile. I think it's going to jump around.
Speaker 7: It's you know, I wouldn't be surprised in any given
Speaker 7: day if we're up five thousand and down five thousands.
Speaker 3: BIX kind of tells us that, right, hold on, hold
Speaker 3: and say that again, up what five thousand.
Speaker 7: Or down five thousand on the Dow, not the S
Speaker 7: and P F which of course is at five thousand.
Speaker 8: It's a huge move.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So I would not be surprised to see extreme
Speaker 7: volatility because our sensitivity levels to any kind of policy
Speaker 7: movements right now are enormous. Right we saw that yesterday.
Speaker 7: What I think we want to keep our eye on
Speaker 7: now is what are companies telling us throughout this earning season?
Speaker 7: Are they going to start pulling guidance, because that's usually
Speaker 7: a sign of pretty extraordinary uncertainty. How are they navigating
Speaker 7: this crisis? Are they planning to push costs onto the consumer?
Speaker 7: And then further, are they starting to change their operations
Speaker 7: in response to the tariffs that are ax.
Speaker 8: We've kind of heard that that's happening already. We heard
Speaker 8: Carmas and Delta this week. Amazon CEO Andy Jasse said,
Speaker 8: and I'm going to get this. I'm not looking at
Speaker 8: exactly what he said, but the gist of his comments
Speaker 8: where we think that producers will pass along the increased
Speaker 8: cost to consumers. Yep, that's happening.
Speaker 7: Yeah, And I think they'll try and then the next well,
Speaker 7: I think they'll try to put those prices out on
Speaker 7: the market below and we have accept those prices, right?
Speaker 7: Or also is there a substitution?
Speaker 5: Right?
Speaker 7: I think that this is very interesting in the context
Speaker 7: of China in particular, which provides an enormous amount of
Speaker 7: our consumer focus.
Speaker 8: Is there a substitution?
Speaker 7: There is there a substitution? Does the consumer have to
Speaker 7: take the price and then the consumer only has so
Speaker 7: much disposable income to go around. What are the alternative
Speaker 7: categories that they have to cut back on in an
Speaker 7: environment of accelerated price Because we know wages are only
Speaker 7: growing at a single digit pace, tariffs are already coming
Speaker 7: in at twenty six percent on average. That's a whole
Speaker 7: lot faster than wage growth is, and especially for the
Speaker 7: lower income consumer, could be very very meaningful at driving
Speaker 7: the ultimate pie and how they slice up that pie
Speaker 7: of income in their.
Speaker 3: Spending bankornings, Yes, what are you going to be watching
Speaker 3: it for?
Speaker 9: Oh?
Speaker 7: I think this is going to be really interesting because
Speaker 7: we've seen such a tightening in financial conditions. Our sector
Speaker 7: strategist Mike Casper runs a macro model of financial sector
Speaker 7: earnings and one of the things that that model told
Speaker 7: us earlier this week is to expect financial earnings to
Speaker 7: be about half as much as consensus is anticipating. That's
Speaker 7: in terms of a growth rate. So some sensitivity coming
Speaker 7: for financials because we've seen such tightening in financial conditions.
Speaker 7: So what does that mean? What do we look for then?
Speaker 7: How tight are financial conditions? And are banks starting to
Speaker 7: prepare for a downturn because you would see lone loss
Speaker 7: provisions accelerate you would see bank sort of lending get tighter.
Speaker 7: You would see them talk about the credit quality, what's
Speaker 7: happening with delinquencies and default rates. Those sort of indicators
Speaker 7: are things that we want to watch for in the
Speaker 7: bank specifically.
Speaker 3: Well, we get a little clue right from Jamie Dimond
Speaker 3: being on Fox and talking about the prospect of recession.
Speaker 8: What about basic day to day movement of customer funds,
Speaker 8: what they're doing with their debit cards, what they're doing
Speaker 8: with their credit cards, how they're doing paying this stuff off.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that that's a good, great point because
Speaker 7: you can get a lot of that data now in
Speaker 7: today's world of alternative data, you can get a lot
Speaker 7: on that.
Speaker 8: Don't need to wait for the banks, Bank in America
Speaker 8: or Brian one hand to tell us what's going on there.
Speaker 7: How are consumers actually handling this situation? What are they
Speaker 7: spending on? You could get that out of MasterCard, You
Speaker 7: can get that out of.
Speaker 8: Anything, anything, anything of concern there.
Speaker 7: You know, I haven't looked in the second measure data
Speaker 7: that's available on terminal. It's something we'll all put on
Speaker 7: the to do list, the laundry list of to do
Speaker 7: something we should definitely do in advance the consumer sector
Speaker 7: earning season, especially. I think given that tariffs really just
Speaker 7: got implemented, we're at the point where we can start
Speaker 7: to really follow that data series. But it's not something
Speaker 7: I have to admit, it's not something we've really tracked
Speaker 7: too much.
Speaker 4: You do follow the economic data. So what's the next
Speaker 4: data points you're thinking about here?
Speaker 7: Oh? Obviously, so we have consumer prices and producer prices
Speaker 7: this week. We're sort of in the midst of getting
Speaker 7: those indicators out now. I think the FED is going
Speaker 7: to be absolutely critical to watch, you know what times
Speaker 7: of commentary once right now is the market starts to
Speaker 7: acknowledge the recession risk is real. They start to follow
Speaker 7: the earnings numbers, and the analysts will mark down their expectations,
Speaker 7: and then the market will feel so lost and confused
Speaker 7: that it starts to look to save you. Sorry, it
Speaker 7: looks to the FED. And we've already seen how the
Speaker 7: market looked to the White House as a potential savior
Speaker 7: From this, I think the market will start to really
Speaker 7: push on the FED, and how much will the FED
Speaker 7: be able to respond in the environment of inflation and growth.
Speaker 7: It's going to be absolutely critical. I think the job
Speaker 7: market is also really really interesting right now. Challenger layoffs
Speaker 7: are levels we only usually see in recession experiences already,
Speaker 7: So we're getting the layoffs there, but we're not seeing
Speaker 7: it in the non pharma. Why are we not seeing
Speaker 7: in the non farm employment? Why are we not seeing
Speaker 7: the unemployment rate? Some of it I think is just survey,
Speaker 7: some of it is we're still creating some jobs to
Speaker 7: offset those layoffs. Will we see job creation then start
Speaker 7: to slow and will we also ultimately see the unemployment
Speaker 7: rates start to rise? Because those are really key triggers
Speaker 7: for the FED.
Speaker 8: I'm going to ask you the question that I asked
Speaker 8: you yesterday, but a day has passed and we have
Speaker 8: new data. Yes, are you more or less concerned today
Speaker 8: than you were when you walked in yesterday?
Speaker 7: Oh? I'm still very concerned. I don't think it's changed
Speaker 7: a whole lot of you know. I think, if anything,
Speaker 7: the only thing that I can say is, at the
Speaker 7: very least, it does look like we had our panic.
Speaker 7: Our major first big capitulation event has happened. Yeah. Does
Speaker 7: that make me feel really better that we won't have
Speaker 7: another one? Not necessarily? You know, I think that this
Speaker 7: whole the tariff situation is just incredibly uncertain. We're still
Speaker 7: we still have average tariffs to contend with of twenty
Speaker 7: six percent. Even if it's ten percent on everybody, that
Speaker 7: still is a big sea change for the economy to contend.
Speaker 4: That's what we're thinking about.
Speaker 3: Or we had some guests yesterday, maybe it was you too,
Speaker 3: who just said, let's not forget ten percent in any
Speaker 3: given environment, tariffs would be a big deal.
Speaker 7: Yeah, huge deal, considering we're coming from an average tariff
Speaker 7: pace that had been close to three.
Speaker 3: All Right, we're gonna leave it there, Gina, Thank you
Speaker 3: so appreciate it. Geena Martin Adams, chief equity strategis at
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence, are go to every day in terms of
Speaker 3: the trade.
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Speaker 8: Well, Ryan Dietrich has been a US stock optimist and
Speaker 8: right about his market in recession calls over the last
Speaker 8: couple of years. He nailed it in twenty twenty three
Speaker 8: and twenty twenty four, and when we talked to him
Speaker 8: in December. He said the bullmarket had more room to run.
Speaker 8: So given the volatility and the declines that we've seen,
Speaker 8: including today, it's time to check in with him again.
Speaker 8: Ryan Dietrich is a chief market strategist at the Carson Group.
Speaker 8: They've got about forty two billion dollars in assets under management.
Speaker 8: He joins us from Cincinnati, Ohio. Ryan, are you still bullish?
Speaker 9: Boy? First off, thanks for having me back. You know
Speaker 9: we are.
Speaker 10: I know it's been rough. I know we did not
Speaker 10: expect to see a near bear market this year. I
Speaker 10: know I came on with you guys earlier this year
Speaker 10: said maybe we could get between ten and fifteen percent
Speaker 10: correction after not seeing one all of last year.
Speaker 9: But clearly with everything like everyone's talking.
Speaker 8: About, and we got a nineteen correction.
Speaker 9: Yeah, we were all. We were close in your day.
Speaker 9: I know we were there.
Speaker 10: We can get into a lot of lott of the
Speaker 10: lot of the different things here, but I think the
Speaker 10: key thing that we're really stressing is, yes, we like
Speaker 10: stocks are going to do okay when all of a
Speaker 10: sudden done this year, but you know, to be diversified.
Speaker 10: I know it's kind of boring to say, but you know,
Speaker 10: just yesterday, right, you manage. We manage a lot of money,
Speaker 10: right just yesterday, we actually went into a little more
Speaker 10: international stocks. We specifically like Europe here. We think, you know,
Speaker 10: when times of stressed uncertainty, you want to be diversified.
Speaker 10: We have some bonds, we've had some gold for a while.
Speaker 10: We've had gold for two years now, okay, and it
Speaker 10: wasn't quite as popular. So be diversified here when things
Speaker 10: are like this.
Speaker 8: But at the end of this year, do you see
Speaker 8: the S and P five hundred having a gain or
Speaker 8: a loss?
Speaker 10: No, I'd say again, and that's really unique because we
Speaker 10: were just down fifteen percent for the year, not that
Speaker 10: long ago. You look in history when you're down at
Speaker 10: least fifteen percent at any point during the year, it's
Speaker 10: kind of rare.
Speaker 9: You're looking at like.
Speaker 10: Eighty two, two thousand and nine, and twenty twenty, and
Speaker 10: I think by memory that might be about it years
Speaker 10: that were down at least fifteen percent for the year
Speaker 10: to come back to positive.
Speaker 9: But we can get into the weeds of it. There's
Speaker 9: so much negativity.
Speaker 10: We we think if any potential good news, we saw
Speaker 10: what happened yesterday, do we go into recession or not,
Speaker 10: it's still our base case. No, you know, but again
Speaker 10: I get, we get all of the worries. Now, let
Speaker 10: me just touch one thing. I know you guys talking
Speaker 10: about technicals here. Yesterday we look at the NYC New
Speaker 10: York Stock Exchange. I've got data back to nineteen eighty
Speaker 10: on this. If you look at the volume up versus down,
Speaker 10: it was sixty eight times up volume versus down volume.
Speaker 10: That's a record. We've never seen a day with that
Speaker 10: much up volume versus down volume.
Speaker 9: What does that mean?
Speaker 10: Well, listen, you're talking like August of eighty two, you're
Speaker 10: talking like March of two thousand and nine. Those are
Speaker 10: some other times we saw days like yesterday, which kind
Speaker 10: of tells us the sellers went on strike. And I
Speaker 10: know the sellers came back a little bit today.
Speaker 3: It wasn't a lot of it's short covering yesterday. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean, this is what we've talked about with our team.
Speaker 3: I mean, there was a lot of short covering going on.
Speaker 10: No, they're exactly right, and that's how bottoms start. We
Speaker 10: hear that every time it's short covering, it's short covering,
Speaker 10: and then it tends to go a little bit further.
Speaker 4: So it's a fundamental trade.
Speaker 3: It's not like you're, Okay, I'm buying this because I
Speaker 3: think you know, their earning's outlook is great.
Speaker 4: It's I got to cover my short.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you're right in the for the shorts, that's true.
Speaker 10: But again, what's the market doing right right, Carol? It's
Speaker 10: all what's baked And by the way, you said it
Speaker 10: feels like Friday. I think Monday morning felt like Friday,
Speaker 10: didn't it Just like wait, wait is it Friday around here?
Speaker 10: But anyway, you know what's baked in what's not. I
Speaker 10: mean there is some all your guests a point of
Speaker 10: these things out huge, but the call ratio spikes over
Speaker 10: the top negative sentiment rightfully, So, I mean, look a
Speaker 10: look at the headlines, and it's been unfortunate what's happened
Speaker 10: for a lot of investors. At the same time, we're stressing,
Speaker 10: your best days of the year tend to happen around
Speaker 10: your worst days of the year. So if you just
Speaker 10: sold because you had a ten percent drop Thursday and Friday,
Speaker 10: then boom, you have a nine percent bounce just yesterday.
Speaker 10: I mean, that's some important things to remember. And again
Speaker 10: to us, what's being priced in is so over the
Speaker 10: top negative that there's probably still more a good deal
Speaker 10: more upside. To be honest, maybe it's not gonna happen tomorrow,
Speaker 10: but when we look up and avoid a recession, we.
Speaker 9: Think things are still gonna be okay. When all of
Speaker 9: a said and done this year.
Speaker 8: What changes your view? What would have to happen between
Speaker 8: now and let's say six weeks from now when you
Speaker 8: come back on with us and I ask you, Ryan Dietrich,
Speaker 8: are we going to end the dear with the S
Speaker 8: and P five hundred higher or lower? And you tell
Speaker 8: me lower? Why are you going to tell me that?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 10: One of the few great question there. One of the
Speaker 10: things I really like to follow the credit markets. I
Speaker 10: know you've had a lot of good credit guests on
Speaker 10: last several weeks. Also, when you look at spreads right,
Speaker 10: keep this simple, triple B spreads, high yield spreads, they
Speaker 10: are not anywhere near what they were in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 10: So if the smartest people in the room and I
Speaker 10: grew up thinking this is the credit markets, they're not
Speaker 10: as worried right now about a monster under the bed
Speaker 10: as what the stock market is. It's shocking Honestly, it's
Speaker 10: shocking to me. Right now, you're to date high yield
Speaker 10: the corporate bonds are down about three percent. If you
Speaker 10: would say the stock market's done what it's done with
Speaker 10: the headlines we've seen, I would expect to see more
Speaker 10: stress in high yield corporate bonds. Well, we're not seeing
Speaker 10: that now. That can change in a hurry, We get that.
Speaker 10: But I think if the credit markets really spiral out
Speaker 10: of control, tim, that's what would worry me.
Speaker 9: And we're not seeing that ass off today. Knock on wood.
Speaker 3: We do have a headline that crust around two twenty
Speaker 3: US leverage Loan fund seeing a record six and a
Speaker 3: half billion dollar weekly outflow. Just wanted to throw that
Speaker 3: out there. The thing is, you know, we had an
Speaker 3: economy that was doing well. We were still dealing with
Speaker 3: a little bit of inflation.
Speaker 4: We know.
Speaker 3: The game in town right now is concerns about tariffs,
Speaker 3: and if we stay at ten percent, as most people
Speaker 3: have assessed, Ryan, that.
Speaker 4: Is a tricky thing.
Speaker 3: It's you know, any other moment in time where if
Speaker 3: we just impose the United States ten percent tariffs and
Speaker 3: all of our trading partners that's a problem.
Speaker 4: So if that stays in place.
Speaker 3: What does a problem that kind of problem look like
Speaker 3: in terms of the equity trade and the corporate earnings
Speaker 3: trade and the US economy.
Speaker 9: Yeah, you're right. I mean it's the uncertainty factor, right.
Speaker 10: I mean, obviously we got the decent news yesterday with
Speaker 10: the ninety day kind of punt, if you will.
Speaker 4: But the ten percent is still in place.
Speaker 9: It absolutely is.
Speaker 10: And again, nobody for the most part thought nine days
Speaker 10: ago that we'd be here.
Speaker 9: Where we are.
Speaker 10: When President Trump held up that little piece of paper
Speaker 10: with all those countries, all those numbers on it, we
Speaker 10: zoomed in and realized, oh, my goodness, this is an
Speaker 10: effective tear rate of you know, maybe twenty three, twenty
Speaker 10: four to twenty five percent. But you're right, it's all
Speaker 10: about art of the deal and and going back and forth.
Speaker 10: But the truth again, that's why we're getting this, you know,
Speaker 10: kind of revaluation right of markets, why we've had one
Speaker 10: of the quickest corrections we've ever seen.
Speaker 9: We were almost in a bear market.
Speaker 10: I'm with you, but again, I mean you have to
Speaker 10: think the resourcefulness of the US, the ingenuity of the US.
Speaker 10: If we if we just know it's ten percent, and
Speaker 10: I think we'll be okay, we can get through that. Yes,
Speaker 10: if it's over twenty Carol, that's that's not going to
Speaker 10: be good. We've all talked about the consumer confidence levels,
Speaker 10: small business conference levels. People are just confused. And when
Speaker 10: you have uncertainty, this is what you have a self first,
Speaker 10: ask questions later mentality. We just need a little more,
Speaker 10: you know, a positive news on this trade front like
Speaker 10: we saw yesterday. They have to be majorly positive news,
Speaker 10: but I think it's just some decent news and one
Speaker 10: one more thing on this, you know, look at the
Speaker 10: labor market. I know this can change in a hurry,
Speaker 10: but we weddential claims today wasn't all that bad, right.
Speaker 10: The labor market is still hanging in there. So it's
Speaker 10: hard to have a recession if you're not laying off
Speaker 10: a bunch of people.
Speaker 9: Now, we get it. That will change.
Speaker 8: That can change. And I should note that we did
Speaker 8: just speak to Gena mar N Adams on our Bloomberg
Speaker 8: Intelligence Team, chief equity strategist, and she noted that although
Speaker 8: the claims are holding up and non farms are holding up,
Speaker 8: she's seeing some weakness when it comes to the challenger
Speaker 8: Grand Christmas numbers that is concerning to her. I do
Speaker 8: want to remind everybody where we are in the trade today.
Speaker 8: The S and P five hundred was down as much
Speaker 8: as six point three percent. It's bounced off those lows.
Speaker 8: We're down three point five percent, the naas that can
Speaker 8: Posit down four point four the Doubt down two point
Speaker 8: six three percent, the RUSS two thousand, those small caps
Speaker 8: down about four percent. Ryan to kind of go with
Speaker 8: Carol's point when it comes to tariffs, you love talking technicals,
Speaker 8: but at what point in your view do fundamentals overrule technicals?
Speaker 8: Because tariffs aren't technical, these are fundamental, and this is
Speaker 8: now affecting companies here in the US. So at what
Speaker 8: point do fundamentals overrule technicals?
Speaker 10: Yeah, I grew up with the old saying, you know news,
Speaker 10: Trump's charts, Trump's being the keyword there, so we know
Speaker 10: news matters, and I mean, believe me, from a macro
Speaker 10: point of view. On the Carson invest Research team, we
Speaker 10: look at technicals, valuations, and fundamentals, So fundamentals are clearly
Speaker 10: in there.
Speaker 9: It's gonna be really interesting.
Speaker 10: I mean, get your popcorn ready, right when we got
Speaker 10: these banks coming up tomorrow, Right, We've got a lot
Speaker 10: of companies coming out of me is real unique.
Speaker 9: What Delta just said.
Speaker 10: Delta said, we're not going to give you any guidance
Speaker 10: because we don't even know what to say, you know
Speaker 10: what I mean. So that's really interesting that that's what
Speaker 10: that's what that company is doing. How many other companies
Speaker 10: are going to do that, We'll have to wait and see.
Speaker 10: But I'm anxious to hear what Corporate America has to
Speaker 10: say here, Tim about you know, kind of the h
Speaker 10: one other thing. I mean, I'm sure you guys talk
Speaker 10: about this the dollar, I mean the dollar action. I
Speaker 10: mean that this is one of the first crisis we've
Speaker 10: seen in our lifetime most listeners lifetime, where the dollar
Speaker 10: would did not get a bit, people did not flock
Speaker 10: to the dollar, so listen, I truly don't know what
Speaker 10: exactly it means. Is a dollar losing reserve currency status?
Speaker 10: I'd like to think not. But it's really unique what
Speaker 10: we're seeing with the dollar being this week. I mean,
Speaker 10: this last comment here March of twenty twenty, gold down,
Speaker 10: stop down, bonds down dollar was the only thing that
Speaker 10: went up March the first half of March twenty twenty.
Speaker 9: We're really not seeing that dollars.
Speaker 8: Yes, So what does that tell you about about this environment?
Speaker 8: If we're seeing gold serge but weakness in those other
Speaker 8: areas that you mentioned, what does that tell you?
Speaker 10: Well, again, I'm gonna put my investor hat on my
Speaker 10: portfolio manager Hacke. This is what we just did yesterday,
Speaker 10: and we've been talking about this for a while. If
Speaker 10: the dollars a week, you want to own some international exposure.
Speaker 10: You want to have some international stocks because they tend
Speaker 10: to do better in a week dollar. Yes, a week
Speaker 10: dollar does a little bit better for commodities on the whole,
Speaker 10: but specifically in our tactical models, we've had a four
Speaker 10: percent allocation of gold for I think it was March
Speaker 10: thirty first of two years ago when we added that,
Speaker 10: so almost two years ago.
Speaker 9: So there are some things that you can do okay
Speaker 9: with a lower dollar.
Speaker 10: Also, one of the things we just added again yesterday
Speaker 10: in the money we run low volatility low volatility. If
Speaker 10: you look at that, it's pretty much an ETF that
Speaker 10: has everything really except for tech.
Speaker 9: Really except for tech.
Speaker 10: I mean it's like the high flyers, and that is
Speaker 10: up one and a half percent on the year. I'm
Speaker 10: not saying that spectacular, but compared to where we were
Speaker 10: so low volatility, international exposure, maybe some commodities, some gold.
Speaker 10: We've got some managed futures too. Yes, we are still
Speaker 10: about seventy four percent or so equities and our unconstrained
Speaker 10: models we run, so we've got some equities. But when
Speaker 10: you look at what we have inequities, it's not just
Speaker 10: you know, crazy over the top aggressive stuff. There's some
Speaker 10: other things like low vall that we still like your tim.
Speaker 3: Hey, Ryan, one thing I want to ask you, and
Speaker 3: you mentioned international equities and you said Europe specifically. I'm
Speaker 3: looking at our market's live blog and it talks about
Speaker 3: how US equity valuations have fallen more than there are
Speaker 3: peers today extending their decline since January twentieth, and they
Speaker 3: talked about the rally yesterday was full of strange distortions,
Speaker 3: with traders ignoring the fact that the overall level of
Speaker 3: tariffs in the US hadn't changed all that much, a
Speaker 3: reality that seems to be registering now. But when you
Speaker 3: do look around the world, you mentioned more in Europe.
Speaker 3: Are you looking to possibly even increase that exposure overseas
Speaker 3: at this point?
Speaker 10: Well, given me, just increase a little bit yesterday, Carol,
Speaker 10: probably not quite right now, but I will say this.
Speaker 10: I mean I've done this for twenty five years. And
Speaker 10: twenty five years i've heard Europe is cheap, right, Developed
Speaker 10: international is cheap. Well, sometimes you're cheap for a reason.
Speaker 10: But again we've seen Germany came out, oh what maybe
Speaker 10: six weeks ago with kind of the big bazooka really
Speaker 10: trying to use a lot of fiscal policy to get
Speaker 10: their economy going. There are some things that you know, again,
Speaker 10: in times of uncertainty, you kind of want to diverse five.
Speaker 10: And that's again just why we've moved a little bit
Speaker 10: more into international, specifically Europe. Now EM just quickly on EM.
Speaker 10: We're still not too warm and fuzzy by EM. We're
Speaker 10: still I know China had a big balance, but it's
Speaker 10: rolling back over. So we'd stick more developed international, kind
Speaker 10: of the European side of things versus emerging markets versus
Speaker 10: emerging markets.
Speaker 4: Hey, one thing I want to ask you flows.
Speaker 3: What are you seeing in terms of flows in and
Speaker 3: out right now or over the last week or two
Speaker 3: or a couple of weeks.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean a lot of good deal outflows. I
Speaker 10: mean there's been a good deal of worry still, you know,
Speaker 10: I mean there there truly is some panic in the air.
Speaker 9: We know that. I mean, the vis is the one
Speaker 9: we like to talk about. I know you guys like
Speaker 9: to talk about it.
Speaker 10: We just had the first VIC spike above fifty in
Speaker 10: a long time. I took a look, like, when you
Speaker 10: have that initial VIC spike above fifty, like the last
Speaker 10: six times going back like twenty years. Well, not surprisingly
Speaker 10: one in three months later, it's volatility and honestly some weakness,
Speaker 10: but six to twelve months later you tend to be
Speaker 10: pretty strong. One more on this, we as everybody knows,
Speaker 10: a really big update. Yesterday I found twenty three times
Speaker 10: the S ANDP was up at least five percent in
Speaker 10: one day. So those are like the best days we've seen.
Speaker 10: And yes, a lot of them took place in bear markets,
Speaker 10: and nearly all of them took place beneath the two
Speaker 10: and to day moving average, where volatility kind of rains. Still,
Speaker 10: when you look at those twenty three six months later
Speaker 10: to a year later, you're talking some really solid returns.
Speaker 10: One year later, SMP's up ninety one percent of the time.
Speaker 10: A year after it an entire trade war, Well, I mean, hey, listen,
Speaker 10: some of those took place in a great financial crisis.
Speaker 10: Some of those took place during the flash crash. I mean,
Speaker 10: I get totally get what you're saying. But a lot
Speaker 10: of times when we all are worried and then we
Speaker 10: price in all this negativity, Carol, maybe we can get
Speaker 10: some I'm a glass half full guy.
Speaker 9: You know that. You ask have you ever.
Speaker 4: Been a bear? But I'm not sure.
Speaker 8: I've asked that before, and I think you have.
Speaker 9: I've been. Yeah. I mean, we could be more neutral. Honestly,
Speaker 9: we manage money.
Speaker 10: We have models that we have to have certain allocations
Speaker 10: to equities, right, so I can't just say go all
Speaker 10: in gold, but we totally can can position things a
Speaker 10: little more defensively and honestly, goodness, when I came on
Speaker 10: with you two years ago, we had more growthy things.
Speaker 10: We had more aggressive things. Now with the money, with
Speaker 10: the equities we own, like I'm talking, I mean, we've
Speaker 10: got some low volatility in there, you know, so that's
Speaker 10: not something we had two years ago.
Speaker 8: I think what Carol's asking, and it's a question that
Speaker 8: a lot of friends have actually been asking me. People
Speaker 8: who are not in the markets in and out of
Speaker 8: the markets. They're just like normal people with four oh
Speaker 8: one k's and who have investment accounts. Is is this
Speaker 8: time different? Yes or no?
Speaker 10: Well, the foremost dangerous words, this time is different, Sir
Speaker 10: John Templeton.
Speaker 9: Here, here's what I've done.
Speaker 10: I've every fifteenth I put a little money in my
Speaker 10: kids five twenty nine, I actually put a little bit
Speaker 10: more in right, four to one k. Actually try to
Speaker 10: put a little bit more. And I have no idea
Speaker 10: when this is going to bottom. But if you don't
Speaker 10: need that money for five to ten years. The old
Speaker 10: saying the stock market's the only play. Things go on sale,
Speaker 10: everybody runs out of the store screaming. There's a lot
Speaker 10: of that. Okay, so there's some really good companies you
Speaker 10: can get a lot cheaper that everybody probably loved eight
Speaker 10: months ago, and who knows where they're going to be
Speaker 10: three months from now. But I think, you know, if
Speaker 10: longer term investors out there listening that have time, this
Speaker 10: is going to be a time we look back and say, wow,
Speaker 10: Liberation Day was not fun.
Speaker 9: That was not a good time. But boy, I'm glad
Speaker 9: I didn't panic. And one more.
Speaker 10: Little cheeky one. You know, plans are useless. Planning is everything.
Speaker 10: President Eisenhower, have a plan, stick with it, and a
Speaker 10: lot of people, unfortunately don't stick with their plans when
Speaker 10: you have scary headlines like this and we get why,
Speaker 10: but then you look back and you realize, oh my,
Speaker 10: I should have probably stuck with my plan.
Speaker 3: Yeah, provided the long term outlook or the economic outlook,
Speaker 3: the US economy hasn't changed fundamentally as a result of
Speaker 3: maybe long standing tariffs. Like, there's so much at play here,
Speaker 3: because we've heard from some super smart part people like yourself,
Speaker 3: but also like Howard Marx, who's saying that you know,
Speaker 3: there could be certainly longer term impact because of the
Speaker 3: tariffs and the volatility that we've seen in the market.
Speaker 4: Hey, so glad we could get some time with you.
Speaker 3: Ryan Dietrich, he's chief market strategist at the Carson Group,
Speaker 3: joining us there from Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each
Speaker 2: weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarplay and the
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Speaker 2: just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven.
Speaker 3: Thirty we've got a great next guest who's got a
Speaker 3: global view, has seen a bunch of market cycles with
Speaker 3: us as Mike Siegel. He is a partner at Goldman
Speaker 3: Sachs Asset Management, serves as global head of the insurance,
Speaker 3: asset management and liquidity solutions businesses, as well as co
Speaker 3: head of the Client Solutions Group in Asia Pacific. You
Speaker 3: do see a lot also with us as Bloomberg TV
Speaker 3: Global Finance correspondent Shanali Bassa, who actually brought us Mike.
Speaker 3: So we're so grateful because there's so much going on, Mike,
Speaker 3: and we want to dig into your specific worlds.
Speaker 4: But you do watch.
Speaker 3: Everything globally and I'm assuming everything is connect. Did you
Speaker 3: watch a lot of different markets at this point? Let's
Speaker 3: start with the environment. We had one Auto Parts CEO
Speaker 3: describe it to us as the Great financial Crisis, the
Speaker 3: COVID set down, and the auto strike all rolled into one,
Speaker 3: at least for him specifically, How do you see today's
Speaker 3: market environment?
Speaker 6: Well, Carol, thanks thanks for having me and thanks for
Speaker 6: that question. I think that people are clearly on edge
Speaker 6: and are reluctant to make any significant decisions until we
Speaker 6: get better clarity as to where the tariffs are going
Speaker 6: to end, where that situation is going to end. Once
Speaker 6: we have more clarity to that, you can then go
Speaker 6: back and see the markets will react. They'll adjust, the
Speaker 6: FED will react. It will adjust, and so will companies
Speaker 6: in terms of how they're going to invest, including my
Speaker 6: insurance clients and including the liquidity clients.
Speaker 8: We don't know how it's going to end, but I'm
Speaker 8: curious if you've mapped likely scenarios for how they'll end,
Speaker 8: what do you think is going to happen.
Speaker 6: Well, we do maps in it, and so first I'll
Speaker 6: stick with the insurance industry, which is very well capitalized
Speaker 6: and not levered in the sense that they're not over
Speaker 6: their skis. They don't hold a lot of equities on
Speaker 6: the balance sheet, so the equity market volatility that we've
Speaker 6: been seeing is not creating a capital strain. They are
Speaker 6: primarily fixed income investors. And by the way, we're seeing
Speaker 6: the intermediate and long end of the curve rise, we're
Speaker 6: seeing credit spreads widen, so on reinvestment. That's a pretty
Speaker 6: good situation as long as it just doesn't continue to
Speaker 6: cascade into something much more significant.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's good for the longer term. For people who
Speaker 5: are reinvesting in bonds. You have insurance clients that are
Speaker 5: holding long term bonds and ten year, thirty year notes
Speaker 5: are really blown out at this point. Are they suffering
Speaker 5: through a lot of pain because of it?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so, Soniali, You're absolutely right that on a mark
Speaker 6: to market basis, these bonds have lost value. But most
Speaker 6: of these institutions don't have to report on a marked
Speaker 6: to market basis. They're able to hold their bonds to maturity,
Speaker 6: So really they are more benefiting from the ability to
Speaker 6: reinvest at higher yields than what's been happening to their
Speaker 6: to the current holdings. Not the same thing being true
Speaker 6: for hedge funds example, or other institutions that are marked
Speaker 6: on a daily basis may have to provide collateral as
Speaker 6: their asset values are dropping. But that's not the case
Speaker 6: for the insurance industry.
Speaker 3: But do they feel that there is a certainty that
Speaker 3: this does get resolved sooner rather than later. I think
Speaker 3: I love your interview you did with Boaz Weinstein, who
Speaker 3: I thought, you know is assessing the situation and saying
Speaker 3: the thing is here we have a president who's in
Speaker 3: for just under four years here, and that he said,
Speaker 3: the uncertainty genie is out of the bottle, So do
Speaker 3: we continue to in your view, and you've got to
Speaker 3: think about short term, longer term, medium term, that uncertainty
Speaker 3: will be with us throughout this tenure.
Speaker 6: I think uncertainty will be with us, hopefully not at
Speaker 6: the level that we have right now. And again it's
Speaker 6: it's our companies in a position where they're forced to
Speaker 6: act or or not. And to the extent that they're
Speaker 6: not over levered, they're not forced to act. They could
Speaker 6: sit watch and look for opportunities.
Speaker 4: And I could tell you they nervous at all.
Speaker 6: Oh, absolutely so. So I would say, you know, when
Speaker 6: you gain plan out. You know, right now this has
Speaker 6: primarily been an equity market event. Concerns that it becomes
Speaker 6: a bond market event. Rising fields are not that much.
Speaker 9: Of a problem.
Speaker 6: Draining liquidity becomes a problem, and you know, so there's
Speaker 6: there's a concern or watch for that. Also, I would
Speaker 6: say for our insurance clients, they are long term holders
Speaker 6: of corporate debt, how are those corporation's going to fare?
Speaker 6: And certainly some corporations are going to be much more
Speaker 6: affected by tariffs, which would we can credit others are
Speaker 6: immune to it. So we're we and our clients are
Speaker 6: doing a lot of work right now going literally bond
Speaker 6: by bond, security by security, What is the sensitivity to
Speaker 6: the tariffs or not?
Speaker 8: Well, on a micro level, some of that uncertainty has
Speaker 8: already led companies on a case by case basis to
Speaker 8: pull guidance CarMax today certain financial goals that it's just
Speaker 8: not giving delta. Earlier this week, you mentioned a lot
Speaker 8: of uncertainty, and I know yesterday Goldman Sachs rescinded its
Speaker 8: call for a recession this year? Are you seeing signs
Speaker 8: of a recession?
Speaker 9: So let me say this.
Speaker 6: So one of the things we want to talk about
Speaker 6: was the survey, And first I would say on the
Speaker 6: insurance survey, it's.
Speaker 3: About fourteenth annual Global Insurance Survey, four hundred and five
Speaker 3: companies representing over fourteen trillion dollars in balance sheets assets combined.
Speaker 4: That's a lot.
Speaker 9: That's a lot.
Speaker 6: It's about half the global industry's asset base. I bring
Speaker 6: that up because one of the questions we said is
Speaker 6: what are you concerned about? And that question they got
Speaker 6: absolutely right. They're concerned about inflation, They're concerned about geopolitics
Speaker 6: that aren't concerned about tariffs and market volatility.
Speaker 4: Welcome to our world. In a nutshell.
Speaker 6: What they didn't get right and nobody did, was the
Speaker 6: magnitude of the tariffs and the implications for that. So
Speaker 6: they didn't see recession this year. That view is changing,
Speaker 6: including at Gold and Saxson. Within our clients, they thought
Speaker 6: the equity markets would be well behaved, not riproaring, but
Speaker 6: well behaved. That view is changing quite dramatically. That they
Speaker 6: also thought that rates were had peaked and would be
Speaker 6: coming down slowly, both at the short end of the
Speaker 6: long end, and I still think that that's the prevailing view.
Speaker 6: So this backup in longer term rates is looking like
Speaker 6: an investing opportunity. None of our clients have been selling
Speaker 6: or directing us to sell on their behalf. They are
Speaker 6: looking for opportunities to get into the market, but they're
Speaker 6: not in a rush. You know, they want to see
Speaker 6: how things settle out. Once they see how things settle out,
Speaker 6: then they'll know where to put capital to work.
Speaker 5: You know, you mentioned that you're looking bond by bond
Speaker 5: right now, and the reason that's so interesting to me
Speaker 5: is because you're already seeing somewhat of a capital market's freeze.
Speaker 5: And if you're worried about corporate debt at all in
Speaker 5: this environment, what does it mean for the way people
Speaker 5: have confidence in investing in corporate debt in the future
Speaker 5: and new issuance for example.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so, Sonali, that's really going to be industry by industry,
Speaker 6: case case by case. And that gets back to this
Speaker 6: uncertainty until we know how this unfolds, and it may not,
Speaker 6: it may not unfold to a point where we have definition,
Speaker 6: is that this is the way it's going to work.
Speaker 6: You've you've elevated elevated the amount of uncertainty, which is
Speaker 6: elevating the amount of risk I need to get paid
Speaker 6: a bigger risk premium to hold any of these instruments.
Speaker 6: And that's why we see credit spreads widening out.
Speaker 5: You know, a lot of people are saying this is
Speaker 5: also a Goalden opportunity for a while public capital markets
Speaker 5: are freezing, to look at private capital because you're seeing
Speaker 5: these private credit giants just float right in as the
Speaker 5: public markets are closed. But are you concerned that there
Speaker 5: are still a lot of pain under the surface in
Speaker 5: private markets given that you know, they call it the
Speaker 5: denominator effect. These companies are seeing their public portfolios really
Speaker 5: shrink and their private portfolios therefore become a bigger proportion
Speaker 5: of their holdings.
Speaker 6: So let me take that question into two break that
Speaker 6: into two parts. One is the underlying asset values themselves.
Speaker 6: And so we've got private equity, we've got real estate,
Speaker 6: we've got infrastructure, we have private credit. At the moment,
Speaker 6: we're not seeing any of this flow through to the
Speaker 6: existing investments that have been made, but we have to
Speaker 6: see how things unfold, and if we end up in
Speaker 6: a deeper recession or deeper recession, that's going to weaken
Speaker 6: the underlying asset values. Now, the thing you said about
Speaker 6: the denominator effect is the ability to put new capital
Speaker 6: to work, and there's two components to that. One is,
Speaker 6: I already have a private equity portfolio. I was hoping
Speaker 6: to get realizations give me fresh cash to put back
Speaker 6: to work. And if the public markets are closed, particularly
Speaker 6: the IPO market, You're not going to see as many
Speaker 6: of those realizations. So I'm going to keep keeping more
Speaker 6: of my capital tied up in those assets. And then
Speaker 6: the second point you're making, which is more applicable quite frankly,
Speaker 6: to pension plans and sell from wealth funds is as
Speaker 6: as the public assets, particularly the equity assets, decline and value,
Speaker 6: all of a sudden, my exposure on an asset allocation
Speaker 6: basis to the private assets has increased. Again reduces my
Speaker 6: willingness to invest more.
Speaker 3: So this was supposed to be the year, right that
Speaker 3: all of a sudden we could tap the public markets, sell,
Speaker 3: sell some assets, IPO whatever, right or M and A
Speaker 3: and it.
Speaker 6: Well, this was supposed to be the year.
Speaker 3: It is only April, Okay, So you are hopeful that
Speaker 3: it gets better.
Speaker 6: Well, I'm always hopeful, but we shall see.
Speaker 4: I guess that.
Speaker 3: I'm just saying in an environment where if we expect
Speaker 3: more and certainty over the next three and a half years,
Speaker 3: that makes it tricky, right.
Speaker 6: It makes it tricky. I think you know right now
Speaker 6: the administration is in the middle of trying to rebalance
Speaker 6: trade through tariffs. At some point that will settle and
Speaker 6: then the markets can assess what does it all mean?
Speaker 6: And then I think you will see markets open up again.
Speaker 6: You'll see more flow of capital.
Speaker 5: We're talking about the risky stuff. Yeah, I'm also wondering
Speaker 5: you have one of the biggest money market businesses in
Speaker 5: the world under your purview.
Speaker 4: So how are those behaving?
Speaker 5: What are they being used for in an environment like this,
Speaker 5: because it's generally safer than a lot of the debt
Speaker 5: markets that we're talking about.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so, Sonali, we manage over seven hundred billion of
Speaker 6: short term liquidity products. We consider that to be the
Speaker 6: canary in the coal mine, so we're always watching what's
Speaker 6: happening with flows there and at the moment things have
Speaker 6: been very stable. The vast majority of the assets are
Speaker 6: government assets, you know, short term short term treasury.
Speaker 9: Bills, et cetera.
Speaker 6: And we don't see flows coming into that market. We
Speaker 6: take that as a good sign. Another part of the market,
Speaker 6: which is called prime, includes a lot of commercial paper
Speaker 6: and other short term debt of corporations, and we don't
Speaker 6: see we don't see companies moving out of prime. So
Speaker 6: at the moment, and we watch very closely, things feel
Speaker 6: calm at that end of the market.
Speaker 8: When money leaves your money market funds, where does it go.
Speaker 6: Well, over the last several crises, if I could say
Speaker 6: like that, it's been actually coming into the money market funds. Basically,
Speaker 6: you know, the two competing forces would be bank deposits,
Speaker 6: and money market funds, and you know, some of the
Speaker 6: crises have called into question, you know, credit worthiness of banks,
Speaker 6: so it comes into the money market funds. If people
Speaker 6: are very nervous, it's going to go into government money
Speaker 6: market funds, so primarily T bills and other government guaranteed
Speaker 6: forms of debt.
Speaker 8: Are you calling this a crisis right now?
Speaker 4: Are you seeing money coming into money markets?
Speaker 7: No?
Speaker 6: As I said, we're watching on a daily and a
Speaker 6: minute by minute basis, and we haven't seen any flows
Speaker 6: come in unusual flows, nor have we seen flows moving
Speaker 6: out of prime into government guys.
Speaker 5: By the way, every single crisis for the last decade
Speaker 5: or so, Mike has been one of my first calls,
Speaker 5: which is exactly how's.
Speaker 6: It going, Sally? I hope that's not why you called.
Speaker 4: Is there any money going outside the US? Increasingly?
Speaker 6: So, you know you've seen so coming into the beginning
Speaker 6: of the year, it looked like the US economy, who
Speaker 6: was going to be the fastest outside of China, the
Speaker 6: fastest growing economy in the world.
Speaker 4: Exceptionals, right, We talked about American exceptional.
Speaker 6: Exceptionalism, and you also saw the dollar strengthening over a
Speaker 6: long period of time, so it if I took foreign
Speaker 6: money and put it into the US market, I had
Speaker 6: probably a underlying market that was going to rally and
Speaker 6: I pick up the currency appreciation a double owami. Right now,
Speaker 6: the dollar's weakening and the US markets are selling off,
Speaker 6: so I'm sure that that's putting a damper on those flows.
Speaker 8: I want to go to China and specifically the US
Speaker 8: relationship with China. You spent a lot of time in China,
Speaker 8: you live partly in Hong Kong, You're head of the
Speaker 8: you're co head of the Client Solutions group in Asia Pacific.
Speaker 8: Is the relationship between the US and China broken?
Speaker 6: That's really not in my Bailey Wick. But I will
Speaker 6: tell you our relationships with the government, entities and the
Speaker 6: companies that are there. You know, between our firm and
Speaker 6: those entities is very strong. What's playing out is just
Speaker 6: pellying out above everybody's head, and we're leaving it to
Speaker 6: play out at that level.
Speaker 8: But it has significant implications for the way that companies
Speaker 8: do business with one another. If one country has tariffs
Speaker 8: that exceed one hundred and I mean one hundred and
Speaker 8: twenty five percent, If it exceeds that, that's a big deal.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's very important for the two countries to have
Speaker 6: good relationships, and then that translates down into the entities
Speaker 6: that we work with and the relationships we have with them.
Speaker 4: Can I ask you one last question.
Speaker 3: Oak Tree Capital Management co founder Howard Marks wrote today
Speaker 3: that Donald Trump's tower policies have the potential to be
Speaker 3: the biggest economic event of our lifetimes, and warned that
Speaker 3: reversing them could still have consequences.
Speaker 4: Do you agree.
Speaker 6: I don't know if I agree with that statement, but
Speaker 6: I will say this that volatility has a cost, and
Speaker 6: it's undermining people's confidence to invest, whether it's corporations building
Speaker 6: plant and equipment, whether it's investors putting money to work.
Speaker 6: So there is a cost of volatility, and we're seeing
Speaker 6: that by the declines in the market and the widening
Speaker 6: out of spreads.
Speaker 4: So appreciate this. Thank you so much, so much.
Speaker 3: Mike Siegal, partner at Golmansach's Asset Management Global head of
Speaker 3: the insurance, Asset Management and Liquidity Solutions business, also co
Speaker 3: head of the Client Solutions Group in ASA Pacific. Mike,
Speaker 3: thank you very much, really appreciate it. And Janellie, thanks
Speaker 3: for bringing us. Mike Bloomberg TV Global Finance correspondence. So
Speaker 3: she calls you. You know what it's about. Is this
Speaker 3: a crisis?
Speaker 8: But he says no, for now here, for now all right,
Speaker 8: let us know if that view changes.
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