WEBVTT - Big VC, Tech Got Backstop for Billions 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:05.680 This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:09.440 editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:09.520 --> 0:00:13.680 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:19.000 Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:21.680 We want to get to one of the stories that 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:23.760 kind of had U shaking our heads again. It's among 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:26.040 our most read on the Bloomberg. It's not about the 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:29.080 big venture capital and tech firms that tapped into a 0:00:29.240 --> 0:00:31.800 backstop and ended up with at least some of them 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:34.519 getting a billion dollars or more following the collapse of 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:35.480 Silicon Valley Bank. 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:43.160 Yeah, some truly unbelievable facts that we had previously kind 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.240 of known. I mean, we knew that there were, for example, 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:50.600 account holders with more than three billion dollars at SVB, 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:51.800 and they were made whole. 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.600 I think at the time, the idea was. 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:56.840 You've got to make everybody whole, or else we'll see 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:01.000 more bank runs all around the country. But in hindsight, 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:06.840 you might be you might be attempted to criticize regulators 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:09.920 for just giving away money to so many people who 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:12.000 already have so much right. 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.880 That weren't in any problem so or seemingly so. 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:19.480 I mean, if I A policy lost a billion dollars, 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:22.160 it would probably hurt, but not much. 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.480 I mean, they'd still be on yachts drinking champagne. 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:26.360 It's a lot, you know, I don't know about that, 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:29.720 but it is a legendary and very successful VC firm. 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:31.400 So let's get to it. This story is written by 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:33.680 our lazette Chapman and Jason Leopold. 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:34.240 Uh. 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:37.360 Let's get to it with Bloomberg News Financial regulations reporter 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:39.440 Ben Bain, who edited the story. He's on the phone 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:41.880 in DC, so Ben, come on in on. First of all, 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.480 what's the information that you guys, thanks to a freedom 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.600 of information request, what you. 0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:49.680 Found and thanks to a mistake and a mistake. 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:53.080 There's that too, so so yeah, we what we saw 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.200 here was really kind of the most detailed information yet 0:01:56.400 --> 0:02:00.320 of what were the top ten biggest depositors. That's Plicon 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.720 Valley Bank as it was collapsing back in March. And 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.680 what we saw was, you know, there there's some interesting 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:10.200 names you mentioned, you know, Sequoia Capital on there. They're 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.080 kind of right near the top of the list. They 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:14.920 had a billion dollars in deposits. Now It's not in 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:19.840 and of itself, you know, surprising or or even necessarily 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.320 news worded that Sequoya, which has about eighty five billion 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:26.360 dollars in assets under management, would have a billion dollars 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.520 in a bank account. But what is interesting about this 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:35.000 is that, if you recall, one of the big shickouts 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.760 from this March banking crisis was that the US government 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.200 took the extraordinary step came in and said, look that 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:44.399 two hundred and fifty thousand dollars limit that we have 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:48.079 as kind of a bedrock in this country for deposit insurance, 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:50.440 that's going to go away in the case of Silicon 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:54.079 Valley Bank depositors and also Signature Bank depositors, the other 0:02:54.120 --> 0:03:00.000 bank that failed in March, because there's an economic necessity, 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:03.680 there's a need for businesses to keep running. Basically, the 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:05.880 thought is is that all these businesses had money in 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:09.359 these banks, and if they lost the money in those 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.160 deposit accounts, they couldn't turn the lights on Monday morning, 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:16.480 March twelfth, March thirteenth, Pardon me, So what's interesting about 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:20.160 seeing names like Sequoya, some of these big VC firms, 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:25.200 big technology firms with substantial deposit accounts in Silicon Valley 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:28.120 Bank that were effectively made whole or at least backstopped 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.960 by the US government. Is that Yes, Sure, there were 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:35.600 many many companies, many many tech startups that were backstopped 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:37.160 by the government stepping in. But there are also some 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.880 pretty big players. As you're mentioning, right, you know, a 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.560 billion dollars wasn't going to make Sequoia Capitals a lot 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.120 of business. They have eighty five billion. So you know, 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.160 it's just kind of a glimpse into some of the 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.240 tough choices of the government had to make when really 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:50.560 taking an extraordinary step here. 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:53.360 I wonder, ben if any of it was pre negotiated. 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:57.640 I mean, there were worries about a run for a 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:01.480 few hours at least right on the twelfth. And if 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.680 you had a billion dollars in the bank, you might 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.800 pick up the phone and call the fd I see 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.240 and say, listen, we're gonna pull it or are you 0:04:08.240 --> 0:04:09.480 going to cover us? 0:04:10.880 --> 0:04:12.520 Well, I don't, I don't, we don't. We don't have that, 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.280 you know, we don't have that reporting what we what 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.120 we you know, what we do what we do know 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:21.360 basically you know from this list, and you know it 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:23.440 was it was you know, we we did get it 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:26.200 through for the freedom of through Freedom Information Act requests, 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:29.320 and it wasn't you know, made public previously. Was that 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.839 you know, there were these large firms who certainly did 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:37.599 have you know, significant theft in technology and also in 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:42.039 other industries. So just that the story wasn't necessarily as 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.400 you know, two dimensional if you will, of many many 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.880 startups and many many small businesses needing to be able 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:50.680 to take their to posits right. They're also some very 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:54.039 very very big players. They relied in this bank, you know, 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:54.799 for many years. 0:04:54.960 --> 0:04:59.200 By the way, the fd I SEE apparently mistakenly sent 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:03.719 you an unred acted document. They then asked you to 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:06.760 please like delete it and not publish it. Why what 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:08.719 did they want to redact? 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:09.239 Do you think? 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:12.520 Well, you know. 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.440 What the what the fd I SEE said was that 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:17.680 they you know, they had intended to partially withhold some 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:22.839 of the details and uh because it included you know, 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:27.479 confidential commercial or financial information. You know, this the details 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:30.920 of who had money you know in Silicon Valley Bank 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.920 as it was going down. I mean, this is a 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.200 sensitive information in the sense that you know, this is 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:42.440 basically who had the biggest deposits at this institution that 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.080 we've all been talking about for the last three or 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.680 four months. You know that said, uh, certainly that this 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:52.440 is part of the story of really one of the 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:55.240 financial stories of the year. So you know, it does 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.000 kind of fill in some details that the public didn't have. 0:05:58.120 --> 0:06:00.200 What kills me is that the amount of money that 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.159 they had at these banks, right, you know that there's 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.200 only a certain amount in short, So I'm always kind 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:05.960 of like, why would you do this? I don't know, 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:06.600 I find that well. 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:08.440 Imagine how many banks they would have to put it 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:10.960 in if they only put two hundred and fifty grand in. 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:14.200 But I get it, but I just think it's kind 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.440 of you are potentially putting yourself in a votel. I know, 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:19.200 you assume that nothing's going to go wrong, but you 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:23.479 know what happens. Having said that, Ben go through some 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:25.400 of the other players. We talk abot about Sequoya, So 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:26.680 they got a billion dollars. 0:06:26.400 --> 0:06:27.960 Shoes a billion they would by the way, if they 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:29.760 wanted to keep only two hundred and fifty grand in 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:32.279 each bank, they would have to find four thousand banks 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:32.880 in America. 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:34.800 I get it, actually I get it, but I mean, 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:37.000 so there's other investments you can do that are short 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:41.320 term that are also considered safe. Right, there's other things 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:43.320 that they can do. I don't know, is that what 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:44.000 everybody does? 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:44.599 Yeah? 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:46.400 I think that's that's what you have to do unless 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:48.000 you want to. I mean, there are only like five 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.360 or six thousand banks in the US, so Sequoia would 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.400 have to use every single one of them, like. 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:54.279 Pretty much, what does Apple and Amazon like, what do 0:06:54.320 --> 0:06:55.200 they do with all their money? 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:55.840 That's Ben? 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:56.240 What do you think? 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:57.800 I mean, it's a good question, Ben, What do you think? 0:06:58.040 --> 0:07:00.320 I mean? I think I think we also just we 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.960 have to keep in mind that this was an extraordinary event. 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.479 You know, there have been three bank failures in you know, 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.480 this year. I mean it doesn't mean that there won't 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:12.040 be others, and there haven't bailed theirs since the financial crisis, 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:16.160 but the amount of money that was held in these banks, 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:18.720 the amount of assets that these banks had, the sides 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:20.880 of the bank failures this year, I mean, this is 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:24.600 not a not a standard situation. So yes, there there 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:26.720 You know, there is definitely strategies where you don't keep 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:30.560 large amounts of money in one account. However, you know, 0:07:31.080 --> 0:07:33.480 businesses need to run their businesses, they need to have 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.000 certain types of accounts to be able to make payroll, 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:41.200 to have accounts to be able right, yeah, to function. 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.640 So there, I mean, there is a distinction between interest 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:47.000 bearing accounts and non interest bearing accounts. And you know, 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:50.720 after the financial crisis, there was you know a now 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:55.160 sunseted exemption where you know, there was coverage for businesses 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:58.080 using non interest bearing accounts that could be well about 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:00.640 the two hundred and fifty thousand dollars and would it 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:02.960 would be covered. So now there's a push to actually, 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:04.800 you know, maybe rethink that list. 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.480 This sounds like a great Business Week story, like a 0:08:06.480 --> 0:08:09.000 little white chart like like where all the money goes 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:11.600 and stuff like, but hey, Ben, before you go, because 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:13.680 we only have about forty forty five seconds. Who else 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:16.120 so got some money just quickly. 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.360 So so there's you know, there are some interesting uh 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:21.480 you know kind of kind of names on there. As 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:23.120 you make you with this list. One thing that kind 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:25.000 of jumped out to me that was interesting too is 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:28.240 that you know, on this list of and if you 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:31.160 if you added together ten ten depositors, is about thirteen 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.640 billion or a little bit less in total. Uh, more 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:39.000 than four billion was actually from Silicon Valley Bank. And 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.800 also Silicon SVB Financial Ink. So so you know, there 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:45.520 there is kind of this now and there is kind 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:49.120 of a you know, an ongoing piece of the the 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:53.680 bankruptcy proceedings relates to svb's financial the parent company for 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:55.559 who should actually get that money. So that's that's a 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:58.000 little bit of a side story. But you know, those 0:08:58.000 --> 0:08:59.960 are a couple of other names that that jumped out. 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:03.160 But there's also you know, several tech firms. You know, 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.319 Bill dot Com was on there, you know, and and 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:09.360 just you know, and others as well. But certainly Sekoia 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.480 you know, is probably the best known bank for capital 0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:13.199 firm in the world. 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.320 All right, well, good stuff, hey Ben, Thank you so much, 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.960 Ben Bay and he's Financial Regulations for report at Bloomberg News. 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:21.920 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:25.360 live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:29.439 Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:31.440 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.840 It's been an interesting week, I think the last couple 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.520 of weeks geopolitically, you had Prime Minister Modi in the 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:42.520 US uh CEOs and the US leaders lining up. He 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.680 was at the White House. You had Anthony Blincoln working 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.000 and seemingly having success at mending the relationship with China, 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:50.720 only to have the President possibly trip it up again. 0:09:50.760 --> 0:09:52.840 And then, of course all of this is the Russian 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:55.080 War rages on in Ukraine. So we thought it was 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:57.800 time to do a geopolitical gut check, and so we've 0:09:57.800 --> 0:09:59.120 got a great voice to do just that. 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:00.439 Yes we do. 0:10:01.440 --> 0:10:04.640 I'm pleased to welcome a guy who's become a friend 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:08.440 of mine over the years on our programs on radio 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.360 and television, Ed Price. He's a principal at a Ergo. 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:13.640 He's also a former British trade official, and he's an 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:17.920 expert in German issues and a fluent speaker of German, 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:21.880 which I appreciate as well. But he's recently been in 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:25.360 Ukraine and spending some time on the ground there and 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:28.240 made some really important contacts. So Ed, let me start 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.080 by asking you about the situation in Ukraine, especially as 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.559 we get you know, headlines right now that are really confusing. 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:41.560 Reports that Moscow, that Russia has bombed camps of the 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:44.560 Wagner Group, which should be you know, this mercenary group 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:46.800 that we assume works for Russia. 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:47.559 Most of the time. 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:50.600 We're not sure if those reports we haven't verified them, 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.680 I should say, independently. But it's very messy on the 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:56.400 ground over there, isn't it, and difficult to kind of 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:58.760 figure out exactly what's going on and who's winning. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:01.600 Right I mean, I'll start by saying, I think your 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.800 German's a bit better than mine. It is messi over 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:08.320 in Russia right now. I think probably what's happening is 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.000 that Progrosion has crossed the line and I wouldn't be 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:13.240 surprised at all if he comes to a sticky end 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.360 quite quickly, and we'll probably we'll probably hear reports of that, 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:19.880 or he'll be confined or something other will happen. 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.280 To He's the head of the Mercenary group, the Wagner group. 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:24.240 Right, Yes, the head of the Wagner Group. I mean 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.440 that some of his on camera addresses are completely bonkers. 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:30.120 And he's now he's now engaging, as you saw today 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:33.440 in conspiracy theories that essentially call out the entire Russian 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:38.760 apparatus and describe Russia as something of a circus? Is 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.400 he defending putin kind of? I feel like he's begging 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:42.079 for his life. 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:46.120 Honestly, Well, yeah, I mean, what did you see when 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:50.240 you were on your trip to Ukraine? And hello, hello, 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:51.520 how are you well? 0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:54.560 Well? For for twenty four hours I saw the inside 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:56.959 of a night train from Poland because of course there 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.440 are no flights. But after that I met with the 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:03.800 finance minister and others, and really what I discovered is 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:08.200 that the Ukrainians are mobilized in a way that's quite spectacular. 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:12.320 They have high morale, they are definitely trying to conform 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:17.080 to NATO requirements, EU membership requirements. They're trying to root 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.559 out corruption, and they're trying to do that at the 0:12:19.600 --> 0:12:24.560 same time as fighting this brutal war. Now, you know, 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.800 we probably should talk about the progress or otherwise of 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:32.000 the offensive, and my current understanding is that the Ukrainians 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:35.760 have only actually put three of their twelve mechanized brigades 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:39.480 into the fight because they're on an interior line. They're 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:42.679 trying still to probe and push the Russians and get 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:45.200 the Russians to misallocate their forces before punching through. 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:50.000 Why do you think the Ukrainians are so focused domestically? 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:54.679 And I understand that they want to retake the land 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:58.160 that Russia has annexed. But why don't they hit Russia 0:12:58.600 --> 0:12:59.480 on its own soil? 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.240 Well, I mean, this is it. It's hard to tell. 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:06.880 On the surface of things. You might say that the 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.720 West we have been very clear that if they do that, 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.520 they're in a lot of trouble. But then that's a 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:14.720 bit odd because we gave them the means to do it, 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.400 not least the storm shadow system, which is some pretty 0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:21.319 spectacular kit. I think that they are masters of the 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:23.960 pr game. I think that they're very very good at 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:27.400 understanding that this war is being fought in an information space, 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:29.920 and I think that the one thing they don't want 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:33.520 to do is to commit a mistake Heaven forbid, some 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.920 sort of atrocity that changes their wild card, which is 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.079 public opinion out here in the West. I mean, Zelenski's 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.960 been clear already that he's worried that at some point 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.960 the American presidency or the American people could lose interest. 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.240 So I think they're being cautious. That said, if they 0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:48.320 want to do it, they will. 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:53.160 So you know, I mean year anniversary and I hate 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:56.240 to say anniversary, but they you know, year marking the 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.920 invasion of Russia into Ukraine. You know, we've talked to 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:04.960 about this. Where are you anticipating this war goes from 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.080 here based on what you're seeing and what you're hearing. 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.720 Well, Carol, it's as I said before, it's a brutal 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:14.920 ground war in and I think that I was thinking 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:16.320 about this this morning at a time. 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.520 When we thought ground wars didn't exist anymore. It's like 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.440 kind of mind blowing. Please continue. 0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:23.640 Well, it's like it's like inflation, right, it's like efficient 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.040 market hypothesis. It's all these things that we think can't 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.440 happen and do. And I was thinking about it this morning, 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.040 saying to myself, well, look, if this wasn't twenty twenty three, 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.360 but if this was nineteen eighty three, then the headlines 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:38.880 would be that NATO weapons, NATO munitions were killing Soviet 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:42.520 soldiers in Europe, And that sort of jolted me while 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:44.920 I was cleaning my teeth. But the point is that 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.280 this is this is a terrifying war. It doesn't seem 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:52.240 that there's a military solution, and so the really difficult 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:55.840 thing is how and when do you get the Ukrainians 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.720 to sit down and even think about agreeing that they've 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.080 lost some sort of territory in order that the Russians 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.400 are given a negotiated peace. I don't know what you 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.880 guys think about this, but I can't really figure out 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.120 whether Zelenski is popular because he's refused to do that, 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:13.840 or popular enough to turn on a dime and actually 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:14.160 do it. 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.560 But at this point, it looks like they're not going 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.680 to do that, right. I mean, they've proven over the 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.000 last year that they're willing to die to hold their country. 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:28.440 How strong is Vladimir Putin? You know? Does he lose 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.600 some of his support as now I think more than 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.840 two hundred thousand Russian soldiers have lost their lives in 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.800 his war. Does he lose some of his support at home? 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.400 Well, if you remember, Matt, when we first spoke about this, 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.880 I suggested to you that I thought Russian might fall apart, 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.040 and that might have been the fever dream of a 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:52.440 hawkish Westerner. He does seem okay now. It seems that 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.680 he's managed to protect himself from assassination. It seems that 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.600 he has some sort of command structure that's still working. 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.120 I mean, they're still at war. And if you ask 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.400 the Ukrainians, look what would happen if Peuden wasn't there? 0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:06.160 They say it doesn't matter because the rest of Russia 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:09.480 thinks and acts in the same way. But again, this 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.560 we're entering the phase of this war now, particularly with 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.560 the Damn incident, that anything could happen. And on the 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.160 other side, I mean, you know, it's not impossible that 0:16:17.160 --> 0:16:20.120 he's assassinated, it's not impossible that he's placed under house arrest. 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:22.680 So he seems okay now, but I think he is 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.360 probably starting to wonder about how this thing ends too. 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:28.920 How much power does the Wagner group actually have? You know, 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:33.080 we read so much about them in the media because 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:36.720 they're a colorful bunch, But could they could they turn 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:42.560 the tide if they turn somehow against the Russians. 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:43.720 Well, that's super interesting. I mean, I think I think 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.480 that most of the Wagner group are dead, so they're 0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:49.920 not doing anything. They're very Unwell, if there was a 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:54.000 scenario in which Russia descended into some kind of civil 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:57.640 descent or civil war, then anyone with the private army 0:16:57.680 --> 0:16:59.600 is going to be having a good time of it. 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.280 And that goes for Wagner too. But I don't think 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.879 that Wagner itself is anything more than a symptom of 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.640 that potential. I don't see that Wagner's got enough agency 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:12.720 or or enough power to turn back into Russia and 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.800 challenge putin fully, like I say, I think progosion is 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:17.280 probably going to come to a sticky end. 0:17:17.920 --> 0:17:19.439 We're all the allies in this, and I guess I 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:21.000 bring it up, and we've just got about a couple 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.760 of minutes here. I'm thinking of the Indian Prime Minister Modi, 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:29.360 you know, in white in Washington, meeting with President Biden 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.959 and other leaders here and other US leaders, and then 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.760 of course the corporate community in a big way and 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.320 really trying to attract a lot of investment to his country. 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.600 Having said that, he also India is a big buyer 0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:44.879 Russian oil. So it's a tricky, you know, relationship. Do 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:49.880 these tricky relationships continue with the backdrop of the war. 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.880 They continue until they don't. And I would suggest that India, 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.919 if anything, has the deciding vote in World War three, 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:01.240 whether it happens who lines up against who and who wins. 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.879 If India swings over to a serious neutrality like it 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.679 used to, or if it, you know, heaven forbid, allies 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:12.000 itself with China and or Russia economically or otherwise, then 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:14.800 the West is in for a very difficult twenty first century. If, 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:16.720 as it seems right now, we can keep the Indians 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:20.920 on board, we may have a different story. So fingers crossed. 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:24.400 The Indians are going to lean into their democratic instincts 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:25.679 rather than their national. 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.280 But we're I think we're happy that they're buying Russia 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:28.240 crugh though twenties. 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.280 Otherwise, wait, wait twenty seconds. So is that what this 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:32.720 was all about in terms of DC. This big ament 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:34.680 was just to make sure we've got India on our side, 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:36.920 just very quickly, of course, I. 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:38.440 Mean what else is what else is Modi going to 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:40.080 get on an airplane for? And how else are we 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:41.640 going to welcome him? 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:44.440 Pretty well, because we talked about with our right artist 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:48.359 every first place us listen, I wish we had always 0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:49.960 I always feel like ed. We always want more and 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:52.240 more and more time. So come back soon, have a 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:55.880 good weekend. Always good to get a check with Ed Price, 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:59.240 principal at Ergo, former British Trade official, vice members of 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:01.680 the European and British Parliament's worked in the City of London. 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:05.960 Has two master's degrees, one in finance and economics and 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:06.840 one in German history. 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:10.080 Sorry to hear he's such an underachiever. Yeah, all right, folks, 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:13.480 you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week, and this is Bloomberg Radio. 0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Catch us 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:21.680 live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:25.160 the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.359 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:32.879 Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.480 I gotta say this next guest. His company. It's been 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:38.800 described by some as Formula one on the water. It 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:43.240 involves fast paced and high tech fifty foot hydrofoiling race boats. 0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:46.560 They're catamarans from different nations and they're all racing against 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:48.200 one another. We're both pretty. 0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:51.920