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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcasts podcast.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five,

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Speaker 3: fifty and the Kicks Block College Football World Stunners.

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Speaker 4: Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 3: It's stumble and football, the lateral turn, the counter on

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Speaker 3: the job. Get you believe I'm not the table off

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Speaker 3: the field to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the sage on the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 4: It's the side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: What's up?

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Speaker 3: De genered Nation, Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast.

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Speaker 3: This is a Group of five and Independence Betting Preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm stucky and with me as always is holl And Wilson.

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Speaker 3: You're excited to talk some Uh it's finally here, Akron

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Speaker 3: and UMass.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean this is where we make our money, right,

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Speaker 1: this is where we've cash UAB twenty to one's.

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Speaker 2: This is where we've had our biggest long shots.

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Speaker 1: If you're a college football gambler, it's just same old,

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Speaker 1: same old power five.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to get ahead.

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Speaker 1: And in the group of five, a team can go

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Speaker 1: from zero to twelve to twelve and oho in two years.

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Speaker 1: Just as Central Florida Ball State Baby.

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Speaker 3: By the time you listen to this, my Mac manifesto will.

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Speaker 1: Be out high Love Match, Love Match.

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Speaker 3: I do have another long shot which we will be

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Speaker 3: talking about. We'll close with the Mac. We'll finish up

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Speaker 3: with the Mac, but we'll go through each of the

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Speaker 3: Group of five conferences. Give our end independence, give our

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Speaker 3: favorite futures, win totals, talk through them broadly, and we'll

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Speaker 3: start with the fun belt.

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Speaker 1: Don't let the latest come between you and the bill.

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Speaker 3: What better way to start the Group of five podcasts

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Speaker 3: than in the fund Mountain. To help us do that,

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Speaker 3: we are bringing in Mike Calberzi, Action Network contributor. You've

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Speaker 3: might have heard him on this podcast while the old

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Speaker 3: podcast before. What's going on? Like going and give a

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Speaker 3: quick intro and background of yourself.

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Speaker 5: Sure, I am a member of Degenerate Nation, which is great,

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Speaker 5: so I feel like I'm in the proper company here,

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Speaker 5: And certainly my love of the Group of Five is

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Speaker 5: it knows no bounds to be honest with you, whether

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Speaker 5: it's ESPN three, ESPN plus, some illegal streamed UMass iPhone feeds,

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Speaker 5: whatever it takes to watch these games.

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Speaker 4: I've been doing it all these years.

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Speaker 5: And this year in particular, I think is justified in

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Speaker 5: getting super excited about the Sun Belt for the first

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Speaker 5: time really since the transition to the current system, this

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Speaker 5: new Year six system, does the Sun Belt have a

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Speaker 5: legitimate path towards getting that coveted automatic bid. Obviously, they'll

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Speaker 5: have to climb over the champion from the American and

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Speaker 5: they're gonna need some help that's outside of their own control.

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Speaker 5: When you look at the schedule, Louisiana taken on Texas

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Speaker 5: at State, getting Miami Florida, there's games to be one

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Speaker 5: to build the resume, not just individually, but of a conference.

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Speaker 5: And the way that it's shifted this year with the

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Speaker 5: East West divisions, there's a really good chance that we

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Speaker 5: can have a twelve to zero matchup in the Sun

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Speaker 5: Belt Championship game and that could be the springboard to

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Speaker 5: a New Year six Bowl.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely a conference on the rise. Last year,

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Speaker 3: they went four and one during bowl season and picked

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Speaker 3: up five Power Five wins. In September, many of you

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Speaker 3: may recall a seventeen point Louisiana win.

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Speaker 2: Over Iowa State.

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Speaker 3: Let's start in the West with Louisiana. It's really hard

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Speaker 3: to make a case for another team in the West

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Speaker 3: to win this division, we'll get to the East, which

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Speaker 3: I think is a little more interesting at the top.

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Speaker 3: But the Raising Cages are going for their fourth straight

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Speaker 3: West title. This is the one you've been waiting for.

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Speaker 3: Let's start there, and I'll build a case for a

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Speaker 3: bet that I made, and I'm curious to get your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on it. I played Louisiana under nine and a

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Speaker 3: half wins, and I know this is a team that won,

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Speaker 3: that went ten and one last year. But if you

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Speaker 3: and look, they bring back pretty much their entire roster.

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Speaker 3: You know, I think their entire too deep outside of

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Speaker 3: a linebacker. They will miss their two star running backs

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Speaker 3: that have moved on. And I think that you know,

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Speaker 3: the kind of the depth that the running back position

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Speaker 3: has taken a hit. But and look, I know this

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Speaker 3: team is really good and they have top twenty five potential,

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Speaker 3: But if you look at the schedule outside of my number,

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Speaker 3: which is closer to eight and a half, I mean,

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Speaker 3: they go to Texas and they go to Liberty, right,

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Speaker 3: so they could lose both of those games, and if

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Speaker 3: they do, they'll have to run the table in order

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Speaker 3: to get the ten wins.

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Speaker 2: And I'm just not sure they can do that.

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Speaker 3: What I think is an improved conference from top to

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Speaker 3: bottom with a lot of returning production. And I know

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Speaker 3: they were ten and one last year, but it's a

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Speaker 3: team that beat Georgia State thirty four to thirty one

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Speaker 3: in overtime. They made a fifty three yard field goal

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Speaker 3: as time expired to beat Georgia Southern by two. They

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Speaker 3: beat UAB by four, and they trailed by ten at

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Speaker 3: the end of the third quarter. You know, they beat

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Speaker 3: UTSA in a bowl game by seven, It was tied

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Speaker 3: in a fourth. They beat Arkansas State by seven, it

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Speaker 3: was tied with two to go. And they beat app

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Speaker 3: State by three and a game where app State missed

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Speaker 3: a thirty yarder at the end of the game the

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Speaker 3: force overtime. So basically six of seven coin flips essentially

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Speaker 3: went their way last year. And I didn't even mentioned

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Speaker 3: the Iowa State win. Yes, they won by seventeen, but

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Speaker 3: they were out game. They had two special teams touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: So there's some close game regression that could really be

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Speaker 3: coming to this team. What are your thoughts on Louisiana

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Speaker 3: from a future's perspective in that wind total, I.

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Speaker 5: Actually do think if I were to play it. I

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Speaker 5: would play under for many of the reasons that you list,

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Speaker 5: but I think there's something that's been overstated in all

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Speaker 5: of college football this offseason, which is look at the

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Speaker 5: returning production. How many offensive linemen or back you know,

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Speaker 5: do you your quarterback back in a given year. This

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Speaker 5: would be such a special collection of players with experience.

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Speaker 5: As you mentioned, they're defensive too deep is only missing

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Speaker 5: one player coming back. But in this weird twenty twenty

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Speaker 5: one season, a lot of teams aren't positions like this,

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Speaker 5: And I actually look at the fact that we have

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Speaker 5: a known quantity of quarterback and at least in terms

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Speaker 5: of big plays and blowing teams away that they should

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Speaker 5: they did not get there, even with Elijah Mitchell and

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Speaker 5: regas you know, being able to pound the rock. I

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Speaker 5: was expecting more out of them when I went back

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Speaker 5: and did kind of a postmortem on their season, and

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Speaker 5: I totally agree with you. There was a handful of

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Speaker 5: coin flip games, and they were just against some of

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Speaker 5: the better teams in the Sun Belt, and in their

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Speaker 5: non conference they messed around with Georgia State and Georgia

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Speaker 5: Southern and should have got burned in one of those

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Speaker 5: spots and I agree, Liberty is an incredibly difficult.

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Speaker 4: Non conference game.

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Speaker 5: And Texas for you know, everything that you can say

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Speaker 5: about the transition to the sark Era and they have

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Speaker 5: a new quarterback and all of that, they're not going

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Speaker 5: to overlook Louisiana. Louisian now has a bullseye on their

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Speaker 5: chest because of what they did in aims to kick

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Speaker 5: off last season. So if I were to play it,

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Speaker 5: I'd be with you on the under.

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Speaker 3: You see any any other team in the West that's

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Speaker 3: worth taking on from a future's perspective, I guess no

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Speaker 3: would have it from a win total perspective, or a

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Speaker 3: team that you know might be under the radar, whether

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Speaker 3: it's preseason or later.

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Speaker 2: On in the year.

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Speaker 5: Texas State is very interesting to me because generally speaking,

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Speaker 5: when you see a team go from three to nine

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Speaker 5: to two and ten, you're like, well, they're taking on water.

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Speaker 5: That coach has probably got one foot out the door.

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Speaker 5: Unfortunately for you know, the Sun Belt West. I think

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Speaker 5: they're not exactly a sleeping giant by any stretch, but

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Speaker 5: this is a team that I do think can go

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Speaker 5: from two wins last year to you know, budging up

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Speaker 5: against that six win number to get to Bowl eligibility.

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Speaker 5: And it really starts with how much they're bringing back.

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Speaker 5: You know, McBride, their quarterback, has a little bit. He's

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Speaker 5: a poor, poor, poor poor man's Johnny Manziel. But Spavatal,

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Speaker 5: I think has created an offense that allows him to

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Speaker 5: make things up on the fly. They have enough returning foruction.

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Speaker 5: And what's so interesting is they brought in zero high

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Speaker 5: school kids in this recruiting class. They went all portal,

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Speaker 5: they went all juco. And what I think that is

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Speaker 5: going to equate to is they brought in a lot

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Speaker 5: of people who are ready to play right now.

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Speaker 4: And I think when you look.

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Speaker 5: At their schedule last season and the games that they

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Speaker 5: were in, they were right in it with SMU. SMU

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Speaker 5: should have beaten them by thirty points. They almost had

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Speaker 5: a victory in Chestnut Hill beating Boston College. So some

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Speaker 5: of his coaches speak, but when you here's s Babitall talk,

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Speaker 5: it's like they really learned what they had and that

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Speaker 5: was how he viewed last season. They wanted to make

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Speaker 5: sure that they were testing themselves on a weekly basis.

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Speaker 5: I think that's going to pay dividends here. I think

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Speaker 5: they're going to go over their win total, and I

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Speaker 5: think they're going to get to Bowl eligibility.

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Speaker 3: The Bob's colin must be smiling right now with the

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Speaker 3: Bobs getting some love on the Group of five podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Con Are you joining there?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, of course I absolutely joined. I love Texas State.

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Speaker 1: You know, I believe in spabatall. I believe in everything

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Speaker 1: that they brought in. It's just a matter of getting

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Speaker 1: it all to work. And if you look at this

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Speaker 1: team last year, plugued the defensively just some of the

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Speaker 1: worst numbers in the league. Hundred and fifteenth in defensive

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Speaker 1: success rate. We know the defensive success rate correlates to

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Speaker 1: against the spread numbers one hundred and twelveth in defensive

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Speaker 1: finishing drives. They're allowing everybody to cross the forty yard

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Speaker 1: line to score. There's got to be a little bit

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Speaker 1: of aggression coming back to that number. They couldn't be

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Speaker 1: any worse than defensive havoc either, bottom ten in the nation.

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Speaker 1: So I do think there's going to be a bounce

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Speaker 1: back here for a Texas State program that has the talent,

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Speaker 1: they just need to execute on the field.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move over now to the East, which

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Speaker 3: will likely I think come down to a highly anticipated

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Speaker 3: game between Coastal Carolina and Appleachian State in boone. The

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Speaker 3: game's at Appalachian State, and if you look at the

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Speaker 3: updated odds for the Sun Belt winner, Louisiana's plus one ten.

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Speaker 3: Now that speaks a lot to their division, which they

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Speaker 3: have a really clear path to getting to the Sun

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Speaker 3: Belt Championship game. Coastal Carolina is plus one sixty an

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Speaker 3: app State is plus four hundred, which you know, on

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Speaker 3: the surface is a little enticing when you consider that

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Speaker 3: they host the Triple C Dynasty Coastal Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Long Live the Triple C Dynasty.

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Speaker 3: Coastal Carolina is loaded once again Apple Watch and State

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Speaker 3: is bringing in a new quarterback, so there's questions there,

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Speaker 3: but they will get to host Coastal Carolina. What do

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Speaker 3: you before we get to some of these you know,

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Speaker 3: pesky teams that I think there are there are a

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Speaker 3: few of in this division. What are your thoughts on

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Speaker 3: the top between Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina.

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Speaker 5: If I could have one question answered for me, I

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Speaker 5: feel a little bit better about app State, and it

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Speaker 5: is will there be an open competition for that QB

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Speaker 5: one spot because Chase Brice's turnovers last year haunt Duke

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Speaker 5: Fans certainly, and it definitely is throwing cold water on

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Speaker 5: what should be one of the most exciting offenses in

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Speaker 5: the group of five because we look at Cameron Peoples

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Speaker 5: and Corey Sutton and Hennigan and Jalen Brgil, who I

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Speaker 5: believe is top five in Bruce Felman's freaklist. The guy's

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Speaker 5: six one two pounds. You know, he's an Olympic style runner.

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Speaker 5: They're gonna use him as a Swiss army knife. It's

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Speaker 5: just going to come down to quarterback play. So right now,

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Speaker 5: you know, with Chase Brice and also Heisman, who's been there,

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Speaker 5: he's a super senior. He was a two star kid

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Speaker 5: out of high school. So I'm just not sure they're

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Speaker 5: going to get their quarterback play wise to be able

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Speaker 5: to bring it all together. Because honestly, these skill position

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Speaker 5: players are so good that I think they are going

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Speaker 5: to be in the conversation to run the table. They're

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Speaker 5: going to have a game against Miami that's going to

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Speaker 5: be incredibly challenging. But honestly, this has been a little

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Speaker 5: bit of that Bobby Bowden, you know, Pat that Pat

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Speaker 5: Hill Fresno State energy where it's like anyone, any anywhere, anytime,

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Speaker 5: and they've done that for so long. I don't think

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Speaker 5: they'll be bullied off of that spot. Really, it just

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Speaker 5: comes down to the number. I do think there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of value in taking up State to win the

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Speaker 5: sun Belt at that you know, exceeded number four to

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Speaker 5: one depending on where what book you're looking at. But

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Speaker 5: Coastal still presents a lot of problems for them, and

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Speaker 5: Coastal has so much coming back on defense. If they

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Speaker 5: can find a way to fill in the gap for

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Speaker 5: Karen Jackson, a consensus all American really the best player

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Speaker 5: in school history. If they can fill in his havoc

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Speaker 5: to a certain degree, maybe they do it. You know,

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Speaker 5: a collection of players on the front at their bandit position.

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Speaker 5: If they're able to do that, it's going to be

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Speaker 5: a tall test, even at home in the most critical

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Speaker 5: game in the Sunbelt East with Appalachian State hosting the shots.

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Speaker 3: And you agree that app State has value right coin,

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Speaker 3: Oh absolutely, I think four to one for the Sun

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Speaker 3: Belt is an absolute play on because as we saw when.

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Speaker 1: They met each other head to head last year, these

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Speaker 1: two teams are really kind of mirror images of each other.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at the stats right now, they're both top

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Speaker 1: twenty five in offensive success right. You know, app State

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Speaker 1: was thirty seventh and defensive finishing drives. Coastal Carolina was

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Speaker 1: thirty eighth in defensive finishing drives. But when you put

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Speaker 1: them head to head up against each other, we said

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Speaker 1: this on the podcast all last year, nobody on Coastal

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Speaker 1: Carolina schedule can expose them in the rush defense perspective

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Speaker 1: because they finished seventy seventh an opponent rushing success, right,

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Speaker 1: but they were outside the top one hundred allowing explosive

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Speaker 1: run plays, and we had app State circled as the

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Speaker 1: team that could do it on the ground. Now, there

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Speaker 1: was some you know, some some shenanigans at the end.

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Speaker 1: There was a fumble, there was a turnover. Coastal gets

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Speaker 1: the win lost that bet. I believe it was a

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Speaker 1: plus five spread that we had to eat there with

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Speaker 1: a turnover at the very end. But now the more

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Speaker 1: I look at these teams, they're almost exact similars to

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Speaker 1: each other. They can run the ball for nine minute drives,

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Speaker 1: drain the clock, and never allow you to touch the

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Speaker 1: ball ever again. So app State has proven Coastal hasn't

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Speaker 1: proven this because Jamie Chadwill has always been there. But

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Speaker 1: App State has proven that they can sub in head coaches,

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Speaker 1: they can sub in quarterbacks, and they just seem to

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Speaker 1: have an advantage over everybody in the Sun Belt when

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Speaker 1: it comes to trench, offensive scheme, special teams, and when

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Speaker 1: I look at some of the numbers up against each other,

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Speaker 1: this is still a Coastal Carolina team that's going to

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Speaker 1: struggle with the rush defense tackling wise. They finished outside

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Speaker 1: the top one hundred last year is where App States

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Speaker 1: in the top ten. It's just these little nitpick things

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Speaker 1: that I kind of pay attention to, like Coastal Caroline

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Speaker 1: and Lineyards was eighty fourth, you know App State was,

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Speaker 1: you know, much higher than that top fifty. There's just

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Speaker 1: little niches from last year where APSU has the advance.

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Speaker 1: It just came down to a coin flip at the

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Speaker 1: end and a turnover is what made the decision. Coastal

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Speaker 1: having that magical run. Now, I know people will look

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Speaker 1: at that four to one on app State and say, well,

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Speaker 1: they got to play Louisiana. That game is meaningless. That

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Speaker 1: game is meaningless because if they beat Coastal Carolina that's

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Speaker 1: one loss over in their division. They would be the

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Speaker 1: ones that go up to the championship game. Tell me

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Speaker 1: the last time you had at four to one odds

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Speaker 1: on the board on app State, Like never, right, I can't,

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Speaker 1: I can't remember.

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Speaker 2: So I think this is huge value.

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Speaker 1: I know, the replacing a quarterback, I'm not going to say,

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Speaker 1: you know we have our value over replacement player of

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Speaker 1: Zach Thomas. I don't think the gap is that large

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Speaker 1: for what the talent they have back. So I'm all

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Speaker 1: in on app State here and the hedge. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna get me plus four hundred here, I've

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Speaker 1: just got to play Coastal and that game should be

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Speaker 1: about a money line, so it's an easy hedge for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the thing I'm still hesitant about is Mike,

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Speaker 3: as you alluded to, is Chase Brice. From what I've seen,

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Speaker 3: we know that Coastal Carolina. Look, they're blacksworm defense. They

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Speaker 3: do lose the defensive player of the year, but it's

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Speaker 3: mainly intact. And we know that Coastal Carolina as a

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Speaker 3: proven commodity at quarterback and he has his weapons back

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Speaker 3: as well in that dangerous unique offense. So that's the

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Speaker 3: one thing that gives me Paulus actually have more confidence

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Speaker 3: that app State will get revenge against a Louisiana team

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Speaker 3: they've owned, yeah, completely owned over the years. And then

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Speaker 3: last year they lose on that crazy with the win

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Speaker 3: and they missed a thirty yard field goal.

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Speaker 2: So that's a Billi thing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, that's a Billi Napier. Why does

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Speaker 1: Billion Napier interview for every job in the Power five

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Speaker 1: and never get it? No one will ever answer that question.

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Speaker 1: And it's a coaching thing. That's the reason why we don't.

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Speaker 1: We never take Louisiana to win this conference because he

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Speaker 1: has the ability to unwin games.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if it's a word, but for Billy

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Speaker 2: Napier it is.

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Speaker 1: But he has the ability to lose games, but no

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Speaker 1: games that he should win, he loses in most of

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Speaker 1: them against app State. But I mean, think of the

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Speaker 1: number of jobs this guy's interviewed for and he doesn't

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Speaker 1: get the job.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, Well, with the rest of the division.

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Speaker 3: You know, you have those two clear teams at the top,

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Speaker 3: but there's three pesky teams below them in Georgia, Southern

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Speaker 3: Georgia D and Troy which won't be easy outs on

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Speaker 3: a week to week basis. Mike, let me start with

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Speaker 3: the team I actually played over on Positively, my numbers

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Speaker 3: suggest that I should, and I did because I am

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Speaker 3: high on them. But this schedule is brutal. I played

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Speaker 3: Georgia State over five. But if you look at the schedule,

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Speaker 3: a if they bring everybody back from an offense that

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Speaker 3: average the school record I think thirty four points, and

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Speaker 3: this is the team. They did have a bizarre loss

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Speaker 3: to Coastal Carolina. I think they lost like seventy to seven,

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Speaker 3: but they lost by seven combined points to Louisiana and

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Speaker 3: Appalachian State. They lost to Louisiana in overtime, so they

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Speaker 3: were right there. They were two and three and one

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Speaker 3: possession games. The road schedule is brutal. I mean they

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Speaker 3: go to Auburn, they go to North Carolina, and then

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Speaker 3: later in the year they have three straight road games

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Speaker 3: against Georgia, Southern Louisiana, and Coastal Carolina. I mean those

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Speaker 3: five road games are brutal. They also get Appalachian State

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Speaker 3: at home. That game is winnable. But if you assume

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Speaker 3: they lose those six games, you know, and they take

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Speaker 3: care of Louisiana Monroe on the road. They just have

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Speaker 3: to take care of business at home to get to

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Speaker 3: bow eligibility. I think Sean Elliott has this program trending

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Speaker 3: in the right direction, you know, with the likes of

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Speaker 3: brown back at quarterbacks, of running back pinking a receiver.

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Speaker 2: I love the town on this offense.

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Speaker 3: The defense has to replace two really important linebackers in

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Speaker 3: McQueen and strachan. But if they can do that, it's

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Speaker 3: a team that can really stop the run and they

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Speaker 3: can really get after the quarterback. I think that this

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Speaker 3: is a sneaky good team that's gonna get one of

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Speaker 3: those games that they didn't get last year against one

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Speaker 3: of the top teams. I think at the minimum, they'd

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Speaker 3: find a way to get to Bowl eligibility. The road

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Speaker 3: schedule does scare me though, too, especially if they get

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Speaker 3: injuries and depth is hurt and they get beat up early.

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Speaker 3: But I had to go over five thoughts on them

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Speaker 3: and or another team that you might be higher on

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Speaker 3: of that pesky group in this division.

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Speaker 5: In that gauntlet of scheduling that you mentioned, you didn't

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Speaker 5: even throw an army to get things started, which I

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Speaker 5: think that's a pivotal game in terms of this total

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Speaker 5: going over for the season for Georgia State, and of

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Speaker 5: all the skill positions you mentioned, you know, Cornelius quad

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Speaker 5: Brown at quarterback, but also Cornelius McCoy at wide receiver.

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Speaker 5: You know, they have a lot to play with. And

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Speaker 5: when you look at their performances when they played up

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Speaker 5: last year, at least in my mind, I want to

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Speaker 5: see it on tape. I want to feel a threat offensively.

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Speaker 5: So it wasn't them just you know, feasting on cupcakes

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Speaker 5: last year. Was them playing up in a lot of

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Speaker 5: big games, and also their bowl game was a nice springboard.

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Speaker 5: I think sometimes it's overstated for the national programs. You know,

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Speaker 5: Texas is back, you know, because they won the Sugar

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Speaker 5: Bowl and now they're going to be the national title conversation.

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Speaker 5: But I do think it matters a lot to these

401
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Speaker 5: group of five teams and to play the way that

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Speaker 5: they did down the stretch, having confidence now to look

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Speaker 5: back on how they performed against the big boys in

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Speaker 5: the conference. I think they are not necessarily a sleeper

405
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Speaker 5: to win the East because it's two loaded, but I

406
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Speaker 5: do like over on that number, and I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: in terms of their schedule, maybe you catch a break

408
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Speaker 5: with an injury, you know, to a quarterback. Maybe maybe

409
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Speaker 5: it's Auburn is one of those weird teams this year

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Speaker 5: that I have a difficult time kind of slotting where

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Speaker 5: they're going to come up in the power rankings in

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Speaker 5: the SEC. Because Harson needs to rebuild. I think you

413
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Speaker 5: get a lot of buzz around like a Georgia Tech

414
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Speaker 5: going from a triple option to a conventional modern offense.

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Speaker 5: But I think in a lot of ways, you know,

416
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Speaker 5: deconstructing the gus Nell Zona offense and what he built,

417
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Speaker 5: it's going to take Harson some time. So maybe that's

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Speaker 5: a game even just momentum wise, they play well, they

419
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Speaker 5: keep it within you know, two scores, and that can

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Speaker 5: you know, benefit them on the back half.

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Speaker 4: The schedule is just so daunting.

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Speaker 5: I think it may at the last minute prevent me

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Speaker 5: from pulling the trigger, but I certainly couldn't talk you

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Speaker 5: out of it based on all the goods that they

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Speaker 5: have coming back. You know, Collins done such a great

426
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Speaker 5: job with the TARP rankings and half of the sun

427
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Speaker 5: Belt returns, you know, close to eight point five out

428
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Speaker 5: of twelve potential TART points for returning production, which is

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Speaker 5: incredible and Georgia State's right there at the top of

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Speaker 5: the list.

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Speaker 4: So this is a team that.

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Speaker 5: Has confidence, they have continuity, the coaching staf stays together.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a lot to like about the Panthers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I assume that they go one in five on

435
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 3: the road, but I think that they might be able

436
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 3: to steal one of these games, or maybe steal at

437
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 3: home against app State, and I think that they find

438
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: a way to get to five to one. A sticky

439
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 3: part of this schedule that I do, like you mentioned

440
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 3: the Army game, is they start with Army, which means

441
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 3: they have extra time to prepare in the offseason, and

442
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 3: they also see Georgia Southern every year, so they do

443
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 3: see a triple option. They're familiar with it. Sometimes you

444
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 3: have these teams that play Army and haven't seen a

445
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,880
Speaker 3: triple option in three years, and then when they played

446
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:37,120
Speaker 3: Georgia Southern on the road, which was obviously a winnable game,

447
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,399
Speaker 3: they would have already seen a triple option earlier in

448
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 3: the season, So maybe that swings a winner two that

449
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 3: preparation and then seeing the triple option twice Colin Any

450
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 3: thoughts on kind of this group of pests in this division.

451
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting you mentioned that because I think you

452
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 1: lmited zero prep for the triple option last year and

453
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 1: got ran up by fifty points against Army.

454
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 3: I don't know if their defensive coordinator quit like a

455
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:02,639
Speaker 3: week before.

456
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not gonna look it up. That was bloody.

457
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 2: That was brutal.

458
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 4: No.

459
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of agree with the rise of

460
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: Georgia State here. They just need to kind of get

461
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 1: to the next level. The problem is they fall in

462
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 1: the division they do and not over in the West.

463
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: I think a team that I liked at the beginning

464
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 1: a couple of months ago was Troy at six and

465
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 1: a half. Lots of indicators, second order win total specifically

466
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: said they should have done way better than five and seven.

467
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:27,919
Speaker 1: They returned just a huge bulk of everything, and there

468
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 1: are a number of games on the schedule.

469
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 2: That they should be doubled.

470
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: They're projected as double digit favorites. We're talking Southern I've

471
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: even got Southern miss I've got Troy at minus seven there.

472
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: Uh, there's other games.

473
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 1: Like Texas State, South Alabama. Uh, there's just a number

474
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 1: of games on here where Troy is going to be

475
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: favored by more than seven and at least five of

476
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 1: their games. And then there's another where they're you know

477
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: projected just you know, barely into coin flips, so they're

478
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 1: going to be less than plus seven dogs underdogs to

479
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 1: app State. Georgia State's another one of those that's a

480
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:02,159
Speaker 1: coin flip. So Troy has five definite wins on their

481
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: schedule and then a handful of coin flips to get

482
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: them what was six and a half and now seven,

483
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: So I would look for the six and a half.

484
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 1: I think Troy is a team that is very well coached.

485
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,640
Speaker 1: On the rise, returns everything and second order wintal held

486
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 1: them back a little bit last year.

487
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 5: Carlton Marshall from that defensive group too, just an incredible

488
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 5: player ends. I think he will be in the running

489
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 5: for Defensive Player of the Year in the Sunbelt. So

490
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 5: not just experience like legitimate playmakers. I think he's going

491
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 5: on three years in a row leading the team at tackles.

492
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 5: He's all over the field.

493
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's a tackling machine. Any final thoughts, Mike, appreciate

494
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 3: your time in joining us here.

495
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 2: We have to talk about ULM.

496
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 3: Rebuild mode win total, the lowest by far in the conference.

497
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 2: Hard.

498
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 4: I mean, put you put your hand up.

499
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 5: If you're taking Jackson State on the money line against them,

500
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 5: I think it's in week three. I'll go ahead and

501
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 5: take the fight in dance in that spot.

502
00:22:55,840 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: And projecting it and projecting at ULM minus seventeen. Again

503
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 1: it's Jackson State.

504
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 4: I mean that is signed me up.

505
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 2: But I have to double down.

506
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,360
Speaker 1: What what kind of money line are we going to get

507
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:05,959
Speaker 1: on that number there?

508
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: Every week two?

509
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 1: No, there's no other there's no other game on the schedule.

510
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 1: They're even close. I think South Alabama maybe their next one.

511
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 1: And you know South Alabama, they seem to have talent

512
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: come in, especially at the skill positions. But every time

513
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 1: I start talking about taking it over on the team,

514
00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 1: stucky and I seem to lose money. So no, I

515
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: don't know who else U ELLM is going to be.

516
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 1: The one and a half is out there just like crazy,

517
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: But you got to find a second win. We're not

518
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: sure they can be Jackson State. Any final thoughts, Mike.

519
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 4: I think that basically wraps it up.

520
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 5: I do think there's a little bit too much negativity

521
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 5: on how bad the West is. I think between Arkansas

522
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 5: State and South Alabama, one of them is going to

523
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 5: figure it out offensively. Both have you know, upside at

524
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 5: the quarterback position. Lane Hatcher in particular, if he can

525
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 5: rekindle some of the magic you've been playing musical chairs

526
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 5: at quarterback for so long. Now that it's his team,

527
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 5: I think there's a decent chance that they could have

528
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 5: some punch offensively. And South Alabama in a similar way

529
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 5: with Jake Bentley stepping in at quarterback with a lot

530
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 5: of Power five experience, the Jalen's out at wide receiver

531
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 5: Jalen Tolbert in particular as a stick of dynamite.

532
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 4: So I think those teams could be feisty.

533
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 5: I want to see early on if they put it

534
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 5: together and if they do their team that you know,

535
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,439
Speaker 5: I'd like to play for some back to our covers

536
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 5: in September.

537
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 3: I want to see Arkansas s take at one stop first.

538
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 3: That's watching that defense last year was I mean unbelievable

539
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 3: at times.

540
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 2: All right.

541
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 3: Thanks to Mike for joining us. You can find him

542
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 3: on Twitter at East Breeze at.

543
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: V R E E S E.

544
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 3: He will also be doing some content for us on

545
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 3: this feed again Big bets on campus. Make sure you

546
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 3: go subscribe, rate review it's really helping us out. We

547
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 3: got up the number one in the football rankings. But

548
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 3: because we're on our own feed, we can do other

549
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 3: stuff in college football. Mike has my blessing, our blessing.

550
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: He's one of us.

551
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 3: He puts his work in, so don't hesitate to listen

552
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 3: to anything that he puts out on the feed. Thanks

553
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 3: again for joining us, and good luck this season, and

554
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 3: enjoy the belt.

555
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 4: I mean the belt.

556
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 5: It's only shown us love, certainly as college football betters.

557
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 5: And so I'm looking forward to the national pub that's

558
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 5: going to get and rightly deserves this fall.

559
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 2: There you have it, all right, Thanks again, Mike.

560
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 4: Thanks for coming on, Mike, take care of guys.

561
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 3: All right, we could knock out a couple of conferences

562
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,400
Speaker 3: here before we deep dive into the MAC.

563
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:14,400
Speaker 2: I think later on.

564
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 3: All right, let's uh, let's move on a knockout conference USA.

565
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 3: If you like bad football, this is the conference for you.

566
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:32,120
Speaker 3: You could argue that ten of the fourteen teams are

567
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,479
Speaker 3: outside the top one hundred in a you know, a

568
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 3: logical power rating set. It's a bad conference. The I

569
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 3: have two plays here. I bet Louisiana Tech over shocking.

570
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 3: I bet Louisiana Tech over four and a half, which

571
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 3: I hated this team last year. I thought they were

572
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 3: extremely inefficient. I faded the shit out of them against TCU,

573
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 3: and then in the bowl game, this team couldn't move

574
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 3: the ball, they couldn't run it. They just theyre they

575
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 3: got They had so many lucky wins like last just

576
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 3: last second wins just pulled a bunch of wins out

577
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 3: of their ass, and I wanted to fade them.

578
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 2: But this is still Skip.

579
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 3: Holtz, and this is a guy that all he does

580
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 3: is get to bowl games. They've been to bowls in

581
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,719
Speaker 3: what six straight years? And if you just look at

582
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 3: their schedule, they you know, you could safely assume they

583
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 3: go one and three in non conference. They'll beat Southeast

584
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: Louisiana at home, and you could say the lose DI

585
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 3: Mississippi State, SMU, and NC State. So in order to

586
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 3: win fewer than five games, the win totals four and

587
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 3: a half, they'd have to go three and five in

588
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 3: league play. Holts hasn't done that since his first year

589
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: in twenty thirteen, and their two crossover games against the

590
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 3: East are against the two worst teams Old Dominion and UTEP.

591
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 3: They have three winnable road games against Old Dominion, UTEP

592
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 3: and Rice, and then you know they have home games

593
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 3: against Charlotte Southern Miss in North Texas. So can they

594
00:26:57,400 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 3: win four of those six? I'm gonna say yes. And

595
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 3: let's assume you know they lose at UAB and they

596
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: lose at home against UTSA. That's certainly not a lot.

597
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 3: They could beat UTSA at home. Luke Anthony did suffer

598
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 3: a bad leg injury at quarterback. Reports are he's gonna

599
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: be healthy. Look, I know that they're regression candidate on

600
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 3: the surface, but I just think there's value in the number.

601
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: I think they'll probably end up skip Polets, will probably

602
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 3: end up pulling out a couple wins they shouldn't have won,

603
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 3: and they'll get back to a Bowl. I show value

604
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 3: in this number, which I was shocked by. The offensive

605
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 3: line was just a mess last year, but I think

606
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 3: it should be much better. I mean, it only returned

607
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 3: one starter last year without a spring practice, and then

608
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 3: they had injuries and COVID issues all along it. So

609
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 3: now they can gel I think it'll be a lot better.

610
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 3: They have a new offensive line coach and has some experience.

611
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: I think that off the offensive line will get much better.

612
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 3: That'll translate to more efficient offensive results across the board.

613
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 3: And I think Colts will have this team ready to go.

614
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 2: It's just what he does.

615
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 3: He gets his teams to bowl games. So I went

616
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: over on Louisiana Tech. The skill position players are met

617
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 3: and they lost their you know, their top two backs,

618
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 3: but they brought in Marcus Williams from app State. He's

619
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 3: ran for over five hundred yards in each of the

620
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 3: past three past four seasons, so LA Tech over four

621
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 3: and a half.

622
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 2: Any thoughts, there.

623
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: Never negate Skipholtz's ability to cover as an underdog, especially

624
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: when he's taking on teams that have larger spreads. He's

625
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 1: all He's pulled a few surprises in his life. So yeah,

626
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: I mean, lowest amount of returning production and transfer activity

627
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: goes to Louisiana Tech. But still, I mean this is

628
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: a very well coached team. They finished twenty seventh in

629
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: offensive finishing drives last year, and really Holts didn't have

630
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,199
Speaker 1: much to work with, So I agree with you on

631
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: that number. I have a couple of them all throughout

632
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 1: for conference essay, and then we will get to the

633
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: meat of the sandwich in this conference. I do like

634
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 1: Florida International to go over four Southern miss after a

635
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: couple of interim coaches in the middle of the season.

636
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: I love their head coaching change there. I'm gonna take

637
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: them over.

638
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 2: Six.

639
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 1: North Texas is absolutely on the downward spiral.

640
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: SEPHL.

641
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 1: Treillm not leaving for Kansas State when he did probably

642
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: not the best in career moves. Now the defense is falling,

643
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: is spiraling out of control. One hundred and twenty first

644
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: in defensive finishing drives last year. It's not getting any better.

645
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: And so you can look for some of those and

646
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 1: this one and a right up I'll do on conference,

647
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: he would say, I love Marshall over eight. The new

648
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,479
Speaker 1: head coach, Charles hoff comes from the School of Saban.

649
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: Before that, he's Assissippi State, He's been at Penn State,

650
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: He's been around. This higher by them, I would question

651
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: why Doc Holliday was out the door, but this higher

652
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: of Huff was just universally praised by everybody. And if

653
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: you look at them, the offense is loaded with returning

654
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: experience at ninety two percent for a team that was

655
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 1: seventh and havoc allowed. That's great for Grant Wells because

656
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: when you look at Grant Wells splits and he doesn't

657
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 1: have pressure. He's as good as any group of five quarterback.

658
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: It's when he has guys in his face that he

659
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: starts to struggle. But this offensive line is going to

660
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: take care of him. And so while Huff knows a

661
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: lot about offense, it's really the defense that's going to

662
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 1: lead this team and be one of the best in

663
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: Conference USA. The units bring back their biggest names in

664
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: creating havoc and they were fourteenth and success rate and

665
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: fourth and finishing drives huge in Conference USA.

666
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 2: So I like the win total over.

667
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 1: The problem is they're hosting the team that I think

668
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: is going to win this and that is Western Kentucky.

669
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: Go hill Toppers, Go hill Toppers. Go fourteen to one.

670
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: Hit it, twelve to one, hit it, ten to one,

671
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: hit it. It's a good number all the way down

672
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: to seven to one. I'll let you take it away.

673
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: But really, the Houston Baptist offense we saw last year

674
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: is now in Conference USA. It's been married up with

675
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky, a team that already had a really decent defense.

676
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky and Tyson Helton finished twenty seventh in defensive

677
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: success rate last year and twenty six in defensive havoc.

678
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: And now you're gonna give me an offense that goes

679
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: like six hundred yards a game. I can't say enough

680
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: about how much I love Western Kentucky. We've all got

681
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: tickets on Western Kentucky, right Hilltoppers all the way.

682
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 3: Baily Zappi, this is the guy through for eighteen hundred yards,

683
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 3: fifteen touchdowns, one interception of four games last year. Three

684
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 3: of those games were against Power five teams, one of

685
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: them against Texas Tech and two point loss Houston Bethosos

686
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 3: by two apt Tech Stucky through five one hundred and

687
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 3: sixty seven yards. If you can look at his numbers

688
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 3: against Power five teams in the past, they're excellent. So

689
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 3: you know, Western Kentucky Big Ram didn't work out the

690
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 3: Maryland transfer quarterback. Their offense was abysmal awful. So what

691
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 3: do they do. They essentially brought one of the most

692
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 3: prolific SCS offenses and brought it in to Bowling Green,

693
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 3: which is where Western Kentucky is. So they just took

694
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: an offense and brought in a rare raid. So they

695
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 3: took their offensive coordinator, the quarterback, Zappi, and their top

696
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 3: three receivers. So and they're going to implement an air raid.

697
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 3: So will it work out? I don't know, but it

698
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: can't be any worse, and it's it's just a very

699
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 3: high variance team.

700
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 2: This year.

701
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 3: They also lost you know, a decent amount of production

702
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 3: at linebacker and the and the defensive back. But I

703
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 3: do like some of the transfers they brought it. But again,

704
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 3: high variant situation on the defense. If it works out,

705
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: the defense, which usually is excellent, could be even more special.

706
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: T'angel Malone. I think we'll have a bounce back year

707
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: at one defensive end spot. The defensive line will be great.

708
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 3: So this is a high variants team in a bad

709
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: conference and in a wide open division. They're two biggest

710
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 3: competitors for the division. Marshall undergoing a coaching change. Florida

711
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:10,719
Speaker 3: Atlantic has to find a quarterback.

712
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: So it's not like a Dominion hasn't played in two

713
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: years Oldmion hasn't played forever.

714
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: It's wide up now.

715
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 3: I don't I don't necessarily like the win total over

716
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 3: five and alf because it could blow up. Right, if

717
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 3: it doesn't work out, I'm not investing with the upside

718
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 3: is huge, which is why I like, uh yeah, I

719
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 3: just found a ten to one yesterday that I bet.

720
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 3: I'll put that from the app right now. And I

721
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 3: think that the upside of this team in a really

722
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: bad conference is worth investing in Bailey Zappi and that

723
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 3: air raid. If it clicks and it works, Western Kentucky

724
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 3: can easily win this conference.

725
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, some of these defenses in this division. Middle Tennessee

726
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: finished what eighty fifth and success rate on defense? Charlotte

727
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: finished one hundred and eighth on defense and success rate.

728
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: Some of the numbers in finishing drives. This Western Kentucky offense,

729
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 1: if you could do a Houston bat just did. Conference

730
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: USA is not ready for this. I'm not even sure

731
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: Marshall's defense, which was great against Conference USA, I'm not

732
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 1: sure that they're ready for this. Just to take those

733
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 1: numbers that we saw against Texas Tech and North Texas

734
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: and plug them into this conference. That's a Western Kentucky

735
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: team that has already beaten Arkansas. They are I mean,

736
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: just the defense alone under Tyson Holton was good enough

737
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: to beat a POWERFY program like Arkansas. Now you're gonna

738
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: plug in this.

739
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 3: Offense that count as a power five winball, Hey, Look,

740
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 3: the San Jose State went over Arkansas was a signal

741
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 3: of things to come. Maybe that's the case for Western Kentucky.

742
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 3: And yeah, Marshall, who knows Gret Wells, which Greg Wells

743
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 3: are we get to get if we're back for them?

744
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 3: All right, So we're all Toppers fans this year. All right,

745
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 3: let's move on, let's not got the independence. I am

746
00:33:54,960 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 3: hilariously going to make a case for UMass over one

747
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 3: and a half wins, and I laid minus one fifty

748
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 3: to do so.

749
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 1: For those of you that are listening to this on

750
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: a podcast, Stuckey is doing this podcast and a UMass

751
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,440
Speaker 1: T shirt, and I am sure that the gift store

752
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 1: that sells these T shirts said, holy shit, in order

753
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: for a UMass T shirt to Kentucky, let's ship it

754
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: immediately day won priority.

755
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 2: It did come quick.

756
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 3: So I actually think that there's some reasons for optimism

757
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 3: in Amherst.

758
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,399
Speaker 2: Now this is still a bottom ten tie.

759
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,439
Speaker 3: They still stink, right, But I don't think that they're

760
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 3: the worst one or two teams in the country.

761
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 2: They're not the worst.

762
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 3: The worst, I think clearly is New Mexico State, who

763
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 3: got blown out by Boo Tarletan State in the spring.

764
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 3: But UMass actually finally has some depth. You know, two

765
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 3: years ago, Walt Bell's first year, they only had seventy

766
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: five guys in camp. This camp, and then they had

767
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 3: a shortened twenty twenty season. They weren't going to play,

768
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 3: and then they added four unwinnable road games. I think

769
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 3: they only scored twelve total points. They got outscored by

770
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 3: I think one hundred total. It was a terrible year.

771
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 3: They scored one offensive touchdown. But this year they played

772
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: four top twenty five defenses, all on the road. They

773
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 3: weren't going to win any of those games. But they

774
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 3: finally have some depth. They have one hundred and ten

775
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 3: guys in camp. They might finally have a quarterback as well.

776
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: Over the past two seasons. In one of those seasons,

777
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 3: let me say again, in the past two seasons, Walt

778
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 3: Bell's first two seasons, they used seven different quarterbacks and

779
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 3: they went one in fifteen. I won win was a

780
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,720
Speaker 3: home win over Akron. This year, they bring in Tyler

781
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 3: Lytle from Colorado. I think it was an ESPN four

782
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 3: star prospect. He's the most talented quarterback they've had in.

783
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 2: Quite some time.

784
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: So they might finally have some stability at quarterback with

785
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 3: Tyler Lytle, and I'd like some of the transfers they

786
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 3: brought in, specifically offensive tackle and then in the secondary

787
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 3: that I think will help. And the most important thing

788
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: is that the team still stinks, but they have four

789
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 3: winnable games on the schedule.

790
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: I mean, let's look at the schedule.

791
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,120
Speaker 3: They play Yukon at home, very winnable, didn't even play

792
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 3: last year, didn't even play in the spring. They play

793
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: Rhode Island and May at home, both winnable. Rhode Island

794
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 3: and Maine for reference, were picked that a sixth and

795
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,439
Speaker 3: ninth in the CIA. So they have three winnable home

796
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 3: games against Yukon, against Maine, and against Rhode Island, and

797
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 3: then they finish up the year at New Mexico State,

798
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 3: who I think is the worst team in the country.

799
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 3: The best part about that not only to have four

800
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 3: winnable games, they all come after Week six. So this

801
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 3: is the team I think is improving. So now that

802
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 3: you know they get into the season, they're gonna get

803
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 3: blown out as long as they don't take too many

804
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 3: injuries early on. At the minimum they're getting the two wins.

805
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be surprised if they win three games. I

806
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 3: think that there's value in over one and a half

807
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 3: minus one fifty give me UMass over as my favorite

808
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 3: and only independence bet thoughts, And now, what do you

809
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: got independence for us?

810
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: You called out the games that are absolutely winnable here,

811
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,280
Speaker 1: and that's a problem for a lot of these college

812
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: football teams, especially in the Group of five, is building depth.

813
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: The transfer portal has created a way for the Oklahomas

814
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: and the Ohio states of the world where if they

815
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 1: don't have any depth at right guard, they go out

816
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: and get a third stringer. It's also created sort of

817
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: a place for people that don't get a starting spot

818
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: in the Power five to fall down to the Group

819
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: of five teams and find some playing time. Having playing

820
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: time actually matters to a lot of kids. And that's

821
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: what Walt Bell needed to do. He needed to clean house.

822
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: He's cycled through a defensive coordinator already, some of the

823
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: players that were on the roster when he first got there.

824
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: I'm not really happy with the higher not.

825
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 1: Really happy with how much he dogs them in practice,

826
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: I mean working them, you know, full pads. The entire

827
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 1: week there was some message boards lighting up about his

828
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: treatment of the players, and the fact is is you're

829
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: just not going to get you Mass to a level

830
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: if you just can you know, continue to treat the

831
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 1: program as a joke, which Walt Bell is not. So

832
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,280
Speaker 1: you look at those games that Stuck mentioned Yukon projected

833
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,959
Speaker 1: to make a pick Rhode Island. I project U MASS

834
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 1: to be minus ten against Maine the Black Bears minus

835
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: twenty three for U MASS.

836
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 2: That's crazy.

837
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 1: The thing then cover has spread that big, and then

838
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 1: New Mexico State right now that's projected at minus four

839
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: for U MASS on the road. There is a chain

840
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,240
Speaker 1: answer that this team U MASS can win four games.

841
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,319
Speaker 1: So I would actually suggest maybe finding a two and

842
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: maybe finding juice on an over. There's plenty of options

843
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: here to hedge because these games Rhode Island, Maine, New

844
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 1: Mexico State, they happen at the end of the year.

845
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: If you happen to pull one off against Eastern Michigan,

846
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: who could lose a game against U MASS is not

847
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 1: completely out of the question, then you're rolling. So I

848
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: would actually skip the one and a half of the juice.

849
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 1: I'd go find it too, maybe find some plus money.

850
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna join you if you're gonna put

851
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 1: this in the app and you find a good number.

852
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: Let's both do it together. Let' let's say you Mass

853
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 1: the team of the year, the junk team that we

854
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: like to sport. It was UTEP for a long time.

855
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: Picks up their solid Now they can win at least

856
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 1: three games. We're out of their backyard. It's onto U

857
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 1: Mass Baby. Oh yeah, let's do this.

858
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 2: Oh maybe we.

859
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 3: Regret this shark purchase. This will be a fun bet

860
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: to sweat all year. A militia colin and it's a

861
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 3: good wins what I like because it's not like just

862
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,319
Speaker 3: one or two games, umber Line, it's like four games.

863
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: I think that they can win two of them. All right,

864
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: So I'm going U Mass Independence. I think you're going

865
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 3: to sell liter Dame.

866
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 2: Where are you going with independence?

867
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 3: The Notre Dame fighting Irish?

868
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm definitely selling Notre Dame.

869
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 1: I think one of the first pieces I wrote this

870
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,279
Speaker 1: year was under nine on Notre Dame for a ton

871
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,359
Speaker 1: of reasons, Clark Lee leaving as a defensive coordinator and

872
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: you know, go download the favorites. Chad's podcast Chad Millman

873
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: are our Fearless Leader and I talked plenty about Notre

874
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 1: Dame in the under there eight and a half still

875
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 1: in the market. I think it's good down to eight,

876
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 1: so I would definitely hit the under Liberty.

877
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 2: I absolutely.

878
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 1: I don't even know what to do with Liberty. This

879
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 1: whole idea that they could be undefeated going into Ole

880
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: miss Hugh Freeze going into play Lady Kiffin, is it

881
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:41,919
Speaker 1: just it gets me excited like we were the first

882
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 1: couple of weeks of August, and I'm getting excited. I

883
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: want to run through the house thinking about Hugh Freeze

884
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 1: going back to Oxford, Mississippi, and how many burner phones

885
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: they'll have on them.

886
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 2: You don't cuss, you don't drink, So what are your vices?

887
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 5: I have been known to chew a bit of tobacco

888
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 5: when I get a little tired or watching feel in

889
00:39:58,360 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 5: a bet?

890
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 2: Will you be in a better run? Yeah? Wheel them

891
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: on in?

892
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, So you know Liberty ninety three percent returning production

893
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: and transfer portal activity on the offensive side, led by

894
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 1: Malie willis one of the best quarterbacks, not just a

895
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,920
Speaker 1: group of five all of college football. The defense returns

896
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 1: eighty three percent top fifty and success rate. They really

897
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 1: lock down in the red zone. They were twenty third

898
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 1: in defensive finishing drives. That's limiting points for opponents past

899
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 1: the forty yard line. I think Liberty goes into Old missundefeated.

900
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 1: So do what you want with that win total. I've

901
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,479
Speaker 1: got it at nine point three. They're legit this year.

902
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 3: I've said to these young people repeatedly, and I say

903
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 3: it again, you are the hope of an area. When

904
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 3: you leave the graduation platform of Liberty, I want you

905
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:45,280
Speaker 3: to leave it running, leave it running with that vision

906
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 3: burning in your soul.

907
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,879
Speaker 1: For all intentsive purposes. I think I'm staying away from

908
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: Army the defensive numbers. It's a really hard team to

909
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 1: grasp because success rate doesn't apply to Army. And the

910
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 1: reason is because success rate is bound to being at

911
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: second and seven and third and four. But there's a

912
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 1: huge uptick in college football right now to go forward

913
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: on fourth down. Army started this trend a really long

914
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 1: time ago. There are other head coaches that are catching

915
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: on that have made the decision that fourth and four

916
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: and fourth and three are downs where you're just gonna

917
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: go for it no matter what your field position is.

918
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: And so success rate doesn't really apply to Army because

919
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 1: they're on a different clock, they're on a different schedule.

920
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: When it comes to moving the chains. I've got them,

921
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: you know at eight point three so far and no

922
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: play here.

923
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 3: I don't want job and returning production means nothing for

924
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 3: these service academies. Just yeah, you never really know. It's

925
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: hard to project. You'll see in the first couple of games.

926
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 3: You know, even I they lose five off his line,

927
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: and they could have five off his lineman come in

928
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 3: and then they're ready to roll. I tend to stay

929
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,720
Speaker 3: away from all Service academy totals win totals.

930
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

931
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 1: And then the last one, I'll mention on the independent scene.

932
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 1: I'm not jumping on this whole BYU. They don't return anything.

933
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson's gone, all the weapons are gone, the Romney

934
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: kid is, you know, everybody's gone. And to me, it's

935
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: narrative street in the year of Super Senior to say, well,

936
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 1: they lost everything, so they're going to suck. That's not

937
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 1: necessarily true. I mean Sataki is a great coach. The

938
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 1: problem that I have with BYU, and remember the age

939
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 1: of the kids on this roster, I mean they're not

940
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,479
Speaker 1: fresh faced, non shaving eighteen year olds on this roster,

941
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 1: They're going to be fine. The problem that I have

942
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 1: with BYU is losing offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes. He was

943
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 1: responsible for a lot of the things that have been

944
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 1: going on with Zach Wilson. That perfect potato bowl that

945
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 1: even threw a couple of years ago was architected by

946
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: Jeff Grimes. That he's gone now as offensive coordinator, and

947
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: that makes me want to take a lot of first

948
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: half unders and individual games on BYU, so rather than

949
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: play the total on them. You can expect to be

950
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: hearing me on the podcast saying BYU's playing, I think

951
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to play a first half under on the

952
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: total because I don't think this is going to be

953
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: the same offensive we've seen the last couple of years.

954
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 1: It's under new management, and Sataki's a defensive coach anyways.

955
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 2: He does a great job there. So that's it for

956
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 2: the Independence.

957
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm pretty close on all the numbers outside of

958
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 3: UMass Notre Dame. I'm actually pretty close on And I

959
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 3: know that you love Clarckley. I actually love Marcus Freeman. Yeah,

960
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 3: we'll see what he can cook up and how quickly

961
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 3: he can transition that defense. I have more questions about

962
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 3: the Notre Dame quarterback situation, but I'm pretty close odd

963
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 3: number there. All right, let's move on to the AAC.

964
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 3: This is quite easy for me and simple. Look, since

965
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 3: he's obviously the clear favorite, I kind of like the

966
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 3: upside of Houston if you can find a good number.

967
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 3: But it's hard to make a case for any other

968
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: team to side since he coming out of this conference.

969
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 3: My love is all for SMU and I've bought them

970
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 3: numerous times at over six at various prices. I just

971
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 3: love this offense. They lose their quarterback, Shambouchelle is now

972
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 3: in the Chiefs, and I wax poetic about this on

973
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 3: our original win Totals podcast a couple of weeks ago.

974
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 3: But look, I think they have a top twenty five

975
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 3: offensive line that has like one hundred and thirty hundred

976
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 3: and forty returning starts. They have a top twenty five

977
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: running back room, and they arguably have a top twenty

978
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 3: five receiving room when you include their tight ends. They

979
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 3: bring in Grant CACKLTA, a highly recruited kid from Oklahoma.

980
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 3: If he can avoid concussion issues, he's gonna thrive in

981
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,439
Speaker 3: that sunny Dyke's air raid. You know, then Rice comes back,

982
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 3: Rogerson comes back healthy. On the outside, this offense is electric.

983
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 3: And then they have two quarterbacks who per potentially emerge

984
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 3: the starter Tanner Mordecai, highly regarded quarterback from Oklahoma. Lincoln

985
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,879
Speaker 3: Riley's brother is the offensive coordinator for RESUMU. You can't

986
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,360
Speaker 3: pick and obviously talks to Lincoln Riley so thinks that

987
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 3: he can come in and thrive in this offense.

988
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 2: And they have a.

989
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 3: Highly touted freshman in Preston Stone who could also emerge

990
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:38,280
Speaker 3: as a quarterback.

991
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:38,919
Speaker 2: So I'm not too.

992
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 3: Worried about the quarterback situation. I also think the defense,

993
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 3: which is aggressive and will cause turners, but has a

994
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: ton of holes and we'll get burnt. They bring in

995
00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 3: my favorite defensive coordinator in the entire country. So and

996
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 3: with Jim Levitt, we also what he did at Florida

997
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:57,319
Speaker 3: Atlantic last year. I think that defense now takes a

998
00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 3: big step forward under the tutelage of Levitt. They brought

999
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 3: in some Power five transfers that I like. You know,

1000
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 3: a linebacker that started at Oregon all of last year

1001
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 3: that comes in Dykes is really recruiting well.

1002
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:11,919
Speaker 2: I think that they have a wide receiver.

1003
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 3: Coming in next year that turned down like Alabama and LSU,

1004
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 3: top ten receiver in the country. So this is a

1005
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 3: team that's on the rise. The schedule's brutal, but I

1006
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,359
Speaker 3: think they at least get to Bowl eligibility. So only

1007
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 3: bet for me in the AAC is SMU over six.

1008
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 3: I think this is an eight win team. What you

1009
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 3: got in the American Yeah.

1010
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:31,879
Speaker 2: One of percent.

1011
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: Everybody should go and bet SMU over six. It's I

1012
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: agree with stuck on. I'm at six point nine not

1013
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 1: to mention that when they do happen to run the ball.

1014
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 1: Ulyssius Bentley's first team All ACC he had like one

1015
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy rushing attempts. He had thirty one missed tackles.

1016
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: This schedule, I mean five clear cut double digit favorites

1017
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: in their first six games and then a bunch of

1018
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: coin flips to get the over. So I love that play.

1019
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 1: There's there's a lot of players between the AC. It

1020
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: all starts at the top of Cincinnati. I can't go

1021
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 1: into enough about having the shutdown corners that they have

1022
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:04,439
Speaker 1: the only team in the nation. I'm including every team

1023
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 1: in the nation that's better at the corner position is LSU.

1024
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 2: That's it.

1025
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: So Cincinnati returns eighty two percent on the offense seventy

1026
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 1: two percent on the defense, while the corners are the

1027
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:19,479
Speaker 1: story on the defensive side of the ball. Desmond Ridders football, Yeah,

1028
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: I mean absolutely, And and that goes with Kobe Bryant too.

1029
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: That's the power to forget that name on the other

1030
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: shutdown corner. But you know, Desmond Ridter just a level

1031
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: of explosiveness that we did not see coming last year

1032
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 1: after a couple of years in the system. As a

1033
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: nineteen to sixty d at I in T ratio and

1034
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 1: a quarterback rating that jump from eighty two up to

1035
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: one hundred and six. He had twelve big time throws

1036
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: and only six turnover worthy plays when and that was

1037
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 1: in a that was in a clean pocket. And you know, listen,

1038
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 1: if you want to go down to the number you think, well,

1039
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: I mean calls telling me to take Cincinnati to win AAC.

1040
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:54,959
Speaker 2: But what's the price point?

1041
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: And that's a really good question because this originally opened

1042
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 1: up at minus one sixty when I was out in

1043
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 1: Vegas Memorial Weekend, and now I'm seeing numbers fluctuate between

1044
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 1: minus one seventy and minus two twenty. Let me be clear,

1045
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of competition here. There's no more divisions.

1046
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 1: It's now like the Big Twelve. The top two teams

1047
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,959
Speaker 1: are going to face each other in the conference championship game.

1048
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: The team that's the number one seed is the host.

1049
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 1: That's where it's even more advantageous to Cincinnati. They could

1050
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 1: host the damn game and Nipper So there is nobody.

1051
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 1: I mean, you see f travels there that I mean

1052
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: there's some competition there, but Tolsa has got, you know,

1053
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: plenty of defense remaining besides Zavi and Collins. Cincinnati is

1054
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:34,720
Speaker 1: a bye up to minus two twenty and the reason

1055
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 1: is because in the championship game, that's about what the

1056
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: money line price is going to be. So if you

1057
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: see minus one seventies out there, I saw them out

1058
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 1: there today, I would hammer them. I've already hammered them

1059
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 1: for a dime myself. No real play on Central Florida

1060
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,759
Speaker 1: with a head coaching change with Gus mals on win

1061
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: total of ninety seven, it's listed at nine to five.

1062
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: I think the one thing that we need to keep

1063
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:56,240
Speaker 1: our eyes on is GJ.

1064
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: Kinney. That was the hot name of Hawaii.

1065
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 1: Last year, when you and I wanted to bet on

1066
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 1: go go offense right the go go spread, it just

1067
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 1: didn't happen. Because now Todd Graham's doing his own thing.

1068
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 1: We'll save that for the Mountain West conversation. So keep

1069
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: your eyes on what Central Florida is doing there with

1070
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 1: Kenny his offensive coordinator, whether he's running Malason's players or

1071
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 1: Malzon's running himself. I can actually make a case for

1072
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: Houston here. There's no Central Florida on the schedule. There's

1073
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,319
Speaker 1: no Cincinnati on the schedule. The problem is is I

1074
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 1: make the number eight four and it's about eighty five

1075
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: across the board. I do love Tulsa. They lose Zavon Collins.

1076
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: It's a number I projected seven and a half in

1077
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: the markets at six and a half. Davis Brynn is

1078
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 1: now the quarterback. If you don't know that name, he's

1079
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 1: the guy that came in and through three touchdowns and

1080
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 1: that unbelievable crazy two lamee game. He came in in

1081
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,280
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter down in the Skelly and threw those touchdowns.

1082
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: Seth Boomer is going to remain in the backup and

1083
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,919
Speaker 1: Davis Brnn is now the starting quarterback. I think what's

1084
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 1: important to know is that they do lose Zavon Collins,

1085
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: and that accounts for about eighteen percent of the defense

1086
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 1: that they'll be missing. But there is a ton of

1087
00:48:56,719 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 1: havoc coming back to this team, seventy four percent returns

1088
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: on defense, their top twenty and advanced stats and everything

1089
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,800
Speaker 1: from success rate to finishing drives. They have players like

1090
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:13,359
Speaker 1: Ken Darren Ray with seven pass breakups, Justin Wright had

1091
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 1: seven and a half tackles for loss, four sacks from

1092
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 1: Anthony Goodlow. There are a lot of players on this

1093
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 1: Tulsa team that can fill in for zav and Collins.

1094
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:22,760
Speaker 1: So I like over six and a half on Tulsa.

1095
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 1: I would play it up to seven and a half.

1096
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 1: Once you get outside there, it's really some bad teams

1097
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: and I just couldn't make a case to go over

1098
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 1: some of these low numbers. I mean, when you see

1099
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,239
Speaker 1: totals as low as like three and a half, you

1100
00:49:36,239 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 1: look for reasons to play on. I couldn't find that

1101
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: with Navy. I'm not sure how they get over the

1102
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 1: post of total of three and a half. I mean,

1103
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: last year it wasn't great to be tackling tires in

1104
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 1: the offseason getting ready for BYU. But that's you know,

1105
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 1: I'm kind of wiping away Navy's numbers because offensively they're

1106
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 1: plug and play. They just find guys to run the

1107
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 1: triple option. Teach them how to do it. But they

1108
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,839
Speaker 1: haven't really identified that. And if you look at them

1109
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:01,760
Speaker 1: the last three games, Navy out just fourteen points against Memphis,

1110
00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: Tulsa and Army. They get their top nine tacklers back,

1111
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: but they were one hundred and twenty six in defensive havoc.

1112
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 2: They're not taking the ball away from anybody.

1113
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 1: They didn't take the ballway from anybody in those last

1114
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: three games where they actually showed up. They're winnable games

1115
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 1: or air Force, maybe East Carolina, not Marshall. I just

1116
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: can't see a way to get to four wins on

1117
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 1: this Navy, So I'll take under three and a half there.

1118
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 3: I would disagree just on that one. I mean, my

1119
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 3: number is right around where it is. But it's just

1120
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 3: really hard to project these triple option teams. I mean,

1121
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 3: Navy in twenty eighteen went three and ten. The next

1122
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 3: year they went eleven and two. So you know, and

1123
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:40,280
Speaker 3: Davy if everything works out and you know, their running

1124
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 3: game is back. It was historically bad last year. Then

1125
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, you know they could be in

1126
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 3: any game with anybody. You have these ten minute drives

1127
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 3: and condensed games. So I again I have to stay

1128
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,439
Speaker 3: away from the Service Academy win to Yeah, it's.

1129
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,240
Speaker 1: Actually kind of crazy on Navy because all this great

1130
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,359
Speaker 1: red zone I don't want to call it luck because

1131
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: they actually executed. But a couple of years ago they

1132
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 1: were I think they were shooting ninety percent in the

1133
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 1: red zone and scoring touchdowns like TD scoring in the

1134
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 1: red zone was like all time legendary stuff. Last year

1135
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:14,399
Speaker 1: that kind of fell apart. So under three and a half,

1136
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 1: I'm going to do some shopping arounds see if we

1137
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 1: can find maybe a four. But Navy is a team

1138
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 1: I'm looking on the under, but a real under that

1139
00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 1: I just I cannot make. How this team gets to

1140
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 1: four wins with a post of total of three and

1141
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 1: a half is South Florida. They went one to eight

1142
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 1: last year under a new head coach. The former coordinator

1143
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 1: that came in from Clemson, Jordan McLeod is now transferred

1144
00:51:32,719 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 1: over to Arizona. Now guitaravist marsh and Cap Forton combined

1145
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,840
Speaker 1: for just eighteen completions last season, so we have no

1146
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,080
Speaker 1: clue what we're going to get under center. Both sides

1147
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 1: of the ball are below national average and returning experience

1148
00:51:44,680 --> 00:51:46,959
Speaker 1: in a year that's based on Super Senior. Even South

1149
00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 1: Florida can't get any of that back. The offense was

1150
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: just an unmitigated disaster in nine games. We're talking one

1151
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: hundred and six is success right, one hundred and twenty

1152
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: fifth and finishing drives only one hundred and twenty seven

1153
00:51:57,719 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: teams played, So it's kind of hard to be that

1154
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 1: bad one hundred and nineteenth than Havoc allowed. That just

1155
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 1: doesn't fix itself overnight when you're constantly got people in

1156
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 1: the backfield fumbling the ball. You know, with McLoud gone,

1157
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: you can only blame so much of this on Jordan

1158
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 1: McCleod at quarterback. This offensive line was still one hundred

1159
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:15,919
Speaker 1: and tenth in sack rate, They were still one hundred

1160
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:18,080
Speaker 1: and fifth in line yards. It all starts in the trench.

1161
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,440
Speaker 1: They don't have it. They haven't fixed it. Jeff Scott

1162
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: called Cam Akin in from Clemson. It's gonna be the

1163
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:27,280
Speaker 1: Bulls running back coach. But this is still an offensive

1164
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 1: coordinator that has minimal experience in Charlie Weiss Junior. I

1165
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 1: know he was at Florida Atlantic and I know Glenn

1166
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 1: Spencer was there at the time and they won that

1167
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:38,040
Speaker 1: Bowl game for FAU once Kevin left town. But other

1168
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 1: than that, I mean, these are a bunch of coaches

1169
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 1: that are searching for answers here on a one to

1170
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: eight team with a trench that is just is not producing.

1171
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,920
Speaker 1: So if you look at their schedule, who's sought Florida

1172
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 1: gonna be Florida A and M. I mean that comes

1173
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 1: after East Carolina BYU Houston. They should be seven to

1174
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 1: thirteen point underdogs to all those teams I just named

1175
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 1: you gott Outside of Florida A and M. I can't

1176
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 1: find a win on the schedule, So South Florida under

1177
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 1: three and a half for me, I can't even make

1178
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 1: three wins, So no bowls for me this year.

1179
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1180
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:10,840
Speaker 3: The one I disagree with you on is Tulsa just

1181
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 3: I mean, I can make a case it could depend

1182
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 3: on how well Brent plays. He played well coming in, Yes,

1183
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:19,319
Speaker 3: I just think Boomer's terrible. But you look at how

1184
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 3: important was Collins. That's that's the question on that defense.

1185
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 3: I know player can play on that defensive line. He's

1186
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 3: a great player, but intended and but you look at

1187
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 3: what they did last year. How many comeback wins did

1188
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:35,360
Speaker 3: they have. I mean they would just get down. I

1189
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:37,839
Speaker 3: mean you look at the two lane game, but it

1190
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:41,760
Speaker 3: was an absolute miracle. Then they they beat, didn't South Florida.

1191
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: They should have lost. They got all those botched calls.

1192
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 3: There was just some lucky wins for Tulsa. It'll come

1193
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 3: down to how Brent plays. Because last year Zach Smith

1194
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: their quarterback, he just wasn't efficient early on in games.

1195
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 3: If Brent can actually bring some more efficiency to the

1196
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 3: besting attack, look, then I can. I can get on board.

1197
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,920
Speaker 3: I'm not playing under on Tulsa, but just playing Devil's

1198
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 3: advocate there. All right, good stuff. If you had to

1199
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 3: say one your favorite bet in AAC, what.

1200
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,759
Speaker 2: Would it be, I'll go South Florida under three and

1201
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: a half.

1202
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: I literally cannot for the life of me, And I

1203
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:18,279
Speaker 1: mean I've checked all everybody else and got as much

1204
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:20,880
Speaker 1: info as I can on this team. There's no direction,

1205
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: there's no trench, and I don't think there's any hope

1206
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 1: for them getting the four wins, all.

1207
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:37,840
Speaker 3: Right, let's move on to the Mountain West. Rocking should

1208
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,720
Speaker 3: be a fascinating conference. A lot of returning production across

1209
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 3: the board. Eric You're seeing that across the country, but

1210
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:46,480
Speaker 3: specifically in this conference. A lot of experienced teams will

1211
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 3: start in the Mountain Division. Air Force Boise, Colorado State,

1212
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 3: New Mexico, Utah State, and Wyoming some team.

1213
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:53,760
Speaker 2: Air Force.

1214
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:55,840
Speaker 3: It's all right, they got to replace. They bring a

1215
00:54:55,840 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 3: lot back that a bunch of kids who didn't play

1216
00:54:58,160 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 3: last year, basically their entire defense, and who are all

1217
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 3: going to be back this year. Last year they had

1218
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 3: basically just their offensive line returning. Well, now they get

1219
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 3: everybody back except their offensive line, which was the strength

1220
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:12,760
Speaker 3: of the team. How well can they replace their offensive lineman? Again,

1221
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 3: really hard to project. Service guide of the team. I

1222
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,840
Speaker 3: want no part of it. New Mexico's still rebuilding, Utah

1223
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 3: State as well. Colorado State, I think, is still trying

1224
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:22,880
Speaker 3: to figure out where.

1225
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 2: They want to go.

1226
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:24,839
Speaker 3: So I think this really comes down to Boise State

1227
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 3: and Wyoming. Personally, I think if you can find like

1228
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,399
Speaker 3: a twelve to one in Wyoming, I think it's worth

1229
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 3: of flying. They do travel to Boise State, but this

1230
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:36,280
Speaker 3: is a team can their quarterbacks stay healthy? Can Chambers

1231
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 3: stay healthy? These have three season ending injuries. But look,

1232
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 3: it's a really experienced team with a great home field advantage,

1233
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:45,400
Speaker 3: and they get a lot of opt outs on defense.

1234
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 2: Back last year.

1235
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 3: Their defense was a lot better last year than I

1236
00:55:47,640 --> 00:55:49,760
Speaker 3: thought after they had a bunch of key opt outs

1237
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 3: not play. They're all back this year with the defense

1238
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 3: that was really stingy. Wyoming is a really interesting team.

1239
00:55:56,640 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 3: Boise State's clearly the favorite. Actually went under nine wins

1240
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,879
Speaker 3: on Boise minus one ten and minus one fifteen. Look,

1241
00:56:04,040 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 3: and first of all, they're going through a coaching chains.

1242
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:07,719
Speaker 3: They're gonna have a new offensive coordinator. They do have

1243
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:11,240
Speaker 3: two quarterbacks back with experience, and heg Backmeyer and Jack Sears.

1244
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 3: I'm just not a believer in Bachmeyer. I think he's

1245
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 3: gonna get the nod to start. If he's ineffective, maybe

1246
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 3: Sears comes in. He's just so inconsistent. That offensive line

1247
00:56:18,760 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 3: I still have questions about as well. I know they

1248
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 3: have really talented receivers on the outside, but even if

1249
00:56:24,680 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 3: you look at the defense, a lot of experience up front,

1250
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 3: but they lose their two star corners, one of which

1251
00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 3: is one of the all time great returners on special

1252
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,640
Speaker 3: teams in college football history. They'll miss him there. I

1253
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,640
Speaker 3: just there's a lot of questions I have about this

1254
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:39,359
Speaker 3: Boise team.

1255
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 2: Look at the schedule.

1256
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 3: They start at Central Florida and they I think that

1257
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 3: Oak denk Line opened like seven to ten. It's down

1258
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:46,880
Speaker 3: to three and a half four, but they're underdogs in

1259
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 3: that game. And then they come home for UTEP. But

1260
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 3: then they get Oklahoma State at home and doobe dogs

1261
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 3: in that game.

1262
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 2: Then they go to BYU.

1263
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 3: Game could go either way, So wouldn't shock me if

1264
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 3: they had three in the non conference portion of their schedule,

1265
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 3: so you know, they could easily go one and three.

1266
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 3: I think they probably end up going to too, but

1267
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:09,879
Speaker 3: it wouldn't shock me if they go one and three.

1268
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: They do get Wyoming in Nevada at home on the

1269
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 3: Smurf turf, which is important. They could drop those games,

1270
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 3: but they'll be favorites there. Wyoming also is a bye

1271
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 3: week before going to the Smurfter, so that's something to

1272
00:57:21,640 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 3: consider as well. And then they have road games against

1273
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 3: Fresno and San Diego State in the season finale. They

1274
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 3: could easily drop one or both of those games, So

1275
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 3: really it comes down to a numbers play for me,

1276
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 3: I make their win total closer to eight. Look, they

1277
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 3: could start one in three in non conference play and

1278
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:42,920
Speaker 3: the worst you could do is push. So I'm selling Boise.

1279
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 2: Do you agree there?

1280
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 3: And then what do you have in the Mountain Division.

1281
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 1: I may get a point four on Boise, but that's

1282
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 1: not the reason to take the under. To me. You're

1283
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 1: taking a lot of new ingredients and you're throwing it

1284
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,480
Speaker 1: in the pot and you're still expecting the meal to

1285
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 1: be perfect as it always has been. So you've hired

1286
00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 1: and Andy Avolos, former defensive coordinator here, moved on to

1287
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 1: Oregon defensive coordinator there. Now he's the head coach and

1288
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 1: obviously all he knows is defense and how to create havoc,

1289
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:11,440
Speaker 1: and so he needed an offensive mind. He went to

1290
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 1: UC Davis and got Tim Plow and he comes in

1291
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: as the new offensive coordinator. He's the former UC Davis

1292
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:20,800
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator and he had some really productive seasons in FCS.

1293
00:58:20,840 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 1: But what needs to be known is that UC Davis

1294
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 1: through about forty five times a game, they throw a lot.

1295
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 1: So this whole Boise State, you know, rushing the ball

1296
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:33,400
Speaker 1: and you know kind of having an attitude that we're

1297
00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 1: going to you know, put it down your throat.

1298
00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:35,920
Speaker 2: That's gone.

1299
00:58:36,560 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 1: The new Boise offensive frame of mindset is going to

1300
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: be passing all the time. They got a quarterback in

1301
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 1: Hank Bochemer.

1302
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 2: That can do it.

1303
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 1: But what's that going to do to the defense? So

1304
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 1: you know, boys is going to be pass happy. They

1305
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 1: returned eighty percent on both sides of the ball. You know,

1306
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:52,320
Speaker 1: I just think it's priced way too high. You're going

1307
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 1: down to humid central Florida, down to Orlando, you know,

1308
00:58:54,920 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 1: when it's still going to be like ninety five degrees,

1309
00:58:57,000 --> 00:59:00,080
Speaker 1: and then you're hosting Oklahoma State, so you don't have

1310
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 1: I have a lot of room for air in a

1311
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 1: Mountain West conference. To me, that is highly improved. Like

1312
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: I love a lot of the teams in this conference,

1313
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 1: one of them is Wyoming and I'm going over on

1314
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: Wyoming and the seven and a half. You know, I

1315
00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:13,680
Speaker 1: lean on the under for Boise. I'll let you take

1316
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:16,240
Speaker 1: that one, but I'm gonna go over on Wyoming. I'm

1317
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 1: not exactly sure if they could go up to Boise

1318
00:59:18,400 --> 00:59:20,480
Speaker 1: and actually win that game. But this is the eighth

1319
00:59:20,560 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 1: year of Craig boll He returns ninety five percent of

1320
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 1: his offense. They lost Sean Chambers like on the first drive,

1321
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:28,919
Speaker 1: but you know they get him back. They have depth

1322
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: a quarterback, they have depth in the trenches. The defense

1323
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 1: comes back after, you know, putting up some pretty scary numbers.

1324
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,640
Speaker 1: If you look at who Wyoming draws from the West Division,

1325
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 1: it's two of the bottom seller teams and Fresno and Hawaii.

1326
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 1: We don't know how Fresno is going to be, how

1327
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:42,160
Speaker 1: good they're going to be. We'll talk about that in

1328
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 1: a minute, but you know that Friday night trip to

1329
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: Boise on November twelfth is really going to dictate the division.

1330
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:48,600
Speaker 2: That's why I'm opting for the win total.

1331
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: You know, Sewn Chambers was hurt in the first series

1332
00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 1: and that got Levi Williams in. He had one hundred

1333
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 1: and ten quarterback rating despite injuring the last two games

1334
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 1: of the season. The entire backfield returns and there's some

1335
00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 1: explosive weapons on the outside from Aiden Everhart and Isaiah Nayer.

1336
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 1: Tight End Tradon Welch had just five catches, but he

1337
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: averaged nineteen yards per catch, so maybe they'll go to

1338
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 1: the tight end a little bit more. The defense is solid,

1339
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 1: one of the best trenches in the group of five.

1340
01:00:13,680 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 1: This is the number I projected, eight and a half.

1341
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:16,919
Speaker 1: I think they're going to go over. You know, there's

1342
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 1: a lot of games on this schedule where they're going

1343
01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 1: to be live dogs, some really short spreads. From an

1344
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 1: underdog perspective, I believe in Craig Bowl, and besides that

1345
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 1: Boise game, I think they could probably win them all.

1346
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:27,200
Speaker 2: And on schedule.

1347
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, don't hate going over on Wyoming.

1348
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:31,600
Speaker 2: Love Valade.

1349
01:00:31,640 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 3: They're running back there and like I said, that defense

1350
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 3: should be loaded after getting some of the opt outs

1351
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:39,480
Speaker 3: back from twenty twenty. All right, let's move on to

1352
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 3: the West Division. I'll make a case for my Nevada

1353
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 3: booth path Nevada plus five hundred to win the Mountain

1354
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 3: West Conference. I don't like the winding total over just

1355
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 3: because the schedule is vicious. I mean in the first

1356
01:00:55,280 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 3: four weeks and I misspoke, I said Wyoming as a

1357
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:00,840
Speaker 3: five before going to Boise. Nevada actually as a bye

1358
01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:03,800
Speaker 3: before going to Boise. But within their first four games,

1359
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 3: they're at col at Kansas State and at Boise. They

1360
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:08,920
Speaker 3: do get out US host State at home, but they

1361
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 3: could lose all three of those games. They do at

1362
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 3: least get a bye before Nevada, but it's just a brutal,

1363
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 3: brutal road schedule. They also go to San Diego State,

1364
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 3: to Colorado State to President State. Now a lot of

1365
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:22,520
Speaker 3: their games at home are winnable, and they do get

1366
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 3: San Jose State at home, which is in a revenge

1367
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 3: spot from last year, which is huge for the division

1368
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 3: and could end up being the tiebreaker. I ultimately think

1369
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:32,760
Speaker 3: it will end up being so. But I have this

1370
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 3: team power ated as the best team in the conference,

1371
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:39,760
Speaker 3: so I'm taking the upside these these coin flip games

1372
01:01:39,760 --> 01:01:41,920
Speaker 3: early on in the non conference, you know where they're

1373
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 3: slight dogs. I don't want any part of the win total,

1374
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 3: but I just I love this team. I think we'll

1375
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:50,320
Speaker 3: start on the defensive side, which hasn't been their strong

1376
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 3: suit in recent years. But I think they finally had

1377
01:01:52,160 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 3: some more bulk up front of the four to two

1378
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 3: to five defense. Don Peterson as a stud I like

1379
01:01:57,040 --> 01:01:59,640
Speaker 3: some of the transfers they brought in for the secondary,

1380
01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 3: so I think the defense is going to be improved

1381
01:02:01,840 --> 01:02:03,600
Speaker 3: and that offense is just a rocket ship.

1382
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:04,000
Speaker 2: I mean.

1383
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:06,160
Speaker 3: One of the reasons I bought into about it all

1384
01:02:06,240 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 3: year last year was Carson Strong. He just exceeded all

1385
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 3: expectations in the second year of that air ring, which

1386
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:13,720
Speaker 3: I expected it would take a big jump. I didn't

1387
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:24,400
Speaker 3: even think he would be that good. Strong. Carson Strong

1388
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:26,800
Speaker 3: was the potential of the next level. Who knows he

1389
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:29,000
Speaker 3: could end up going late first round if he has

1390
01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:31,360
Speaker 3: an all of the year This year. Romeo Dubbs had

1391
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 3: a breakout year at receiver, and now they get Elijah cooksback,

1392
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:37,240
Speaker 3: who might be their best NFL wide receiver prospect. He

1393
01:02:37,400 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 3: comes back, now it's hard to double Dubs on the outside.

1394
01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 3: Cole Turner is a monster at tight end, experienced offensive line.

1395
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 3: I mean this offense is going to score. Third year

1396
01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:50,040
Speaker 3: of the air raid for Carson Strong leading that offense,

1397
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 3: good special teams unit, schedules brutal, but they do get

1398
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:58,120
Speaker 3: a bye before going to that Boise game, and most importantly,

1399
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 3: they host Santa A State, who I think is is

1400
01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 3: gonna miss their two stud wide receivers, Trey Walker and

1401
01:03:07,600 --> 01:03:10,520
Speaker 3: Bailey Gate the more than people are anticipating. I think

1402
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:12,720
Speaker 3: Devada gets that game, which is the difference in the division.

1403
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:16,400
Speaker 3: And I'm lower on Boise than most, so Screw the division.

1404
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:19,960
Speaker 3: Screw the wind total. I'm going plus five hundred to

1405
01:03:20,080 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 3: win the Mountain West.

1406
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 2: Go Pack, go oh.

1407
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 1: I'm completely behind you on this. I think the bottom

1408
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 1: at five to one to win the Mountain West is

1409
01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:31,800
Speaker 1: a play to make, but I might actually wait to

1410
01:03:31,880 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 1: hit that number. There are shops available that will put

1411
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 1: up conference odds in the middle of the season.

1412
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 2: After the first few weeks.

1413
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:41,240
Speaker 1: There is a great chance that this Nevada team starts

1414
01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:44,440
Speaker 1: off getting into mid October without an FBS win on

1415
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 1: their schedule. They could start off one to three cal

1416
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 1: Kansas State, Boise State, all on the road to start.

1417
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 1: I think Idaho State they can win that game, but

1418
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 1: that doesn't count as a FBS win. So yeah, absolutely

1419
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 1: staying away from the win total. But this Nevada team

1420
01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 1: can win the last seven games on this schedule problem whatsoever.

1421
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:02,560
Speaker 1: And if you want to know how good Carson Strong

1422
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 1: has been a twenty seven to four TD to I

1423
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 1: in t ratio. That is backed up when you look

1424
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 1: at the fact that he's had twenty three big time

1425
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:16,160
Speaker 1: throws and only seven turnover worthy plays through last year.

1426
01:04:16,280 --> 01:04:18,600
Speaker 1: So Carson Strong is just on another level in this

1427
01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:23,120
Speaker 1: Mountain West. I absolutely love this team, but I think

1428
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:25,760
Speaker 1: this is something where they could drop that first conference

1429
01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 1: game to Boise and some of these shops to put

1430
01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 1: up conference odds like you know, in early October, that's

1431
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 1: when you want to fire on Nevada because they can

1432
01:04:33,040 --> 01:04:35,720
Speaker 1: win the last seven games on this schedule. So I'm

1433
01:04:35,720 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 1: with you there. There's another team in here that I

1434
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,800
Speaker 1: wanted to talk about, which is Fresno State, because it

1435
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 1: seems like everybody just kind of forgot about Kaalin de

1436
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,000
Speaker 1: Boor and Fresno went through some things last year that

1437
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 1: people don't, you know, realize they're a team out of California.

1438
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 1: They were locked out of their facilities forever. California had

1439
01:04:50,840 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 1: one of the you know as far as COVID rules go,

1440
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:55,360
Speaker 1: like they couldn't get into their facilities.

1441
01:04:55,360 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 2: I think until the week that they had to play.

1442
01:04:57,120 --> 01:04:59,439
Speaker 1: You know, both success rate and explosiveness were top thirty

1443
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:02,840
Speaker 1: five and running back Ronnie Rivers returns. The schedule is

1444
01:05:03,520 --> 01:05:06,080
Speaker 1: pretty unkind it makes a difference in the projections with

1445
01:05:06,160 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 1: Nevada for the division, so I'm not really looking for

1446
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:11,600
Speaker 1: Fresno to win the division. But the Bulldogs host Boise,

1447
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:14,080
Speaker 1: they travel to Wyoming and in mid October, they get

1448
01:05:14,120 --> 01:05:16,480
Speaker 1: San Jose State to end the season. The defense in

1449
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:19,840
Speaker 1: twenty twenty under defensive coordinator William Inge ranked seventeenth and

1450
01:05:19,840 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 1: success right in twenty third and Havoc. That was a surprise,

1451
01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:25,040
Speaker 1: complete surprise that Presno was able to pull that off

1452
01:05:25,280 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 1: with Kaylen de Bor going there. We thought it was

1453
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:29,960
Speaker 1: the offensive would probably carry all the water on this team,

1454
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:32,480
Speaker 1: But the list of opponents in twenty twenty, they didn't

1455
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 1: really present that much difficulty if you look at their schedule,

1456
01:05:35,360 --> 01:05:37,320
Speaker 1: So I don't know how much we put into those numbers,

1457
01:05:37,360 --> 01:05:40,320
Speaker 1: but Fresno's top twelve tacklers are back and they should

1458
01:05:40,320 --> 01:05:42,440
Speaker 1: be ready to go in the opener against Yukon. The

1459
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 1: schedule is really tough Oregon UCLA, There's no doubt. There's

1460
01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 1: four wins on this schedule with UNLV, Yukon, New Mexico

1461
01:05:50,920 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 1: and kal Poly. There's four wins right there for Kaylin

1462
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 1: to Boor to win. I think Fresno can win those games.

1463
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 1: After that, you get into a handful of coin flips

1464
01:05:57,720 --> 01:05:59,360
Speaker 1: San Diego State, San Jose.

1465
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 2: State, Hawaii.

1466
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 1: There is a lot of chances on this schedule to

1467
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 1: get to six wins. I like over six on Fresno.

1468
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:08,400
Speaker 1: I think we've all kind of forgotten how great Kalin

1469
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 1: Debore was as an offensive coordinator Indiana. Ronnie Rivers is

1470
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 1: an explosive running back. Gamme Fresno State over six.

1471
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:19,560
Speaker 3: Are you buying or selling your boy? Nick Starkle? It

1472
01:06:19,600 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 3: is justin bieber Sure. I saw he retweeted a funny

1473
01:06:22,960 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 3: story that someone wrote. It was like the worst quarterbacks

1474
01:06:26,240 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 3: in the SEC since twenty sixteen or something, and it

1475
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 3: had Starkle for Texas A and M and then Starkle

1476
01:06:33,440 --> 01:06:36,200
Speaker 3: for Arkansas. Are you buying San Jose State after a

1477
01:06:36,240 --> 01:06:40,040
Speaker 3: surprise season in twenty twenty?

1478
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:43,200
Speaker 1: It's a hold when we're talking about stocks bisell hold,

1479
01:06:43,240 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 1: It's a hold for me. And the reason is something

1480
01:06:45,040 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 1: that we talked about on the PAC twelve podcast. The

1481
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 1: person that was the architect for this San Jose State

1482
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 1: comeback was Ryan Gunderson, the passing game coordinator. He worked

1483
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:56,880
Speaker 1: wonders with Starkle, really trimming up some of the turnover

1484
01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:59,840
Speaker 1: worthy plays that he had at Arkansas, and he had

1485
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: Texas A and M, which got him to San Jose

1486
01:07:01,600 --> 01:07:03,640
Speaker 1: State in the first place. He's no longer on the

1487
01:07:03,720 --> 01:07:07,960
Speaker 1: San Jose State staff. I mean, their numbers are really

1488
01:07:08,000 --> 01:07:11,240
Speaker 1: priced correctly, a really high wind. Total odds for the

1489
01:07:11,280 --> 01:07:13,560
Speaker 1: Mountain West are not that great. I think if you're

1490
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 1: gonna look for a long shot over to hit, I

1491
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: think you got to look at San Diego State. I

1492
01:07:18,600 --> 01:07:20,520
Speaker 1: don't want to get I'm thrown out here for taking

1493
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:22,080
Speaker 1: overs on San Diego s oh No.

1494
01:07:22,760 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 2: I love the Aztecs over six and a half. Dian

1495
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:27,720
Speaker 2: Diego State overs have started in August.

1496
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm going to take individual game overs,

1497
01:07:30,000 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 1: but I am going to take San Diego State over

1498
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:34,200
Speaker 1: six and a half lottery. You know, Brady Hoaks in

1499
01:07:34,280 --> 01:07:37,520
Speaker 1: his second year, the Aztecs finished first in success rate,

1500
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 1: third and defensive havoc twenty first and finishing drives. I

1501
01:07:40,840 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 1: mean that sounds like a bad number. That's still top

1502
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 1: twenty five. So the three three five is going to

1503
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:46,960
Speaker 1: stay intact. There's not going to be a lot of

1504
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:50,160
Speaker 1: changes there. It really comes down again to me betting

1505
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 1: on offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski. You know, stability at the

1506
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 1: quarterback position is needed. After they just had a number

1507
01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 1: of stats fall outside the top one hundred. You know

1508
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:03,520
Speaker 1: the team, I'm not gonna be betting overs, but Carson

1509
01:08:03,560 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 1: Baker's gone and Lucas Johnson should get the knot at quarterback.

1510
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 1: Even though he had just twenty four attempts and Jordan

1511
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:14,160
Speaker 1: Berkshire had seventy four, Johnson had an average depth of

1512
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:17,240
Speaker 1: target of twelve point one yards. He can throw it deep,

1513
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:19,240
Speaker 1: and he had one big time throw and no turnover

1514
01:08:19,280 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 1: worthy plays. On eight rushing attempts. He went for ten

1515
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:25,800
Speaker 1: yards piece, so he's got some legs. He can throw

1516
01:08:25,840 --> 01:08:28,200
Speaker 1: the ball. He didn't make any bad decisions. He's penciled

1517
01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 1: in as the starter here. But if you look at

1518
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:32,960
Speaker 1: the schedule, San Diego State's gonna play New Mexico State

1519
01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:37,920
Speaker 1: UNLV New Mexico thousand. I mean, those are all wins

1520
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 1: right there once you get past it, and just the

1521
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:41,599
Speaker 1: defense alone could win that no matter if we get

1522
01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:44,240
Speaker 1: anything from the offense or not. Those are wins. Hawaii,

1523
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:47,120
Speaker 1: they can't stop rushing attacks. That's bad against San Diego State.

1524
01:08:47,200 --> 01:08:49,439
Speaker 1: Chalk that up as a win. We don't know where

1525
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:52,600
Speaker 1: Arizona's going, and by game two is there, you know

1526
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:54,360
Speaker 1: San Diego State's defense is gonna be good enough to

1527
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:57,519
Speaker 1: shut down Jed Fish. That's another possible win. So the

1528
01:08:57,560 --> 01:08:59,840
Speaker 1: five games leading up to the season ending game against Boise.

1529
01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 1: They all act as a hedge to this win total.

1530
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:04,840
Speaker 1: I absolutely think San Diego State is gonna get to

1531
01:09:04,840 --> 01:09:07,240
Speaker 1: six wins pretty fast, and then you're gonna have five

1532
01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:09,280
Speaker 1: games towards the end of the season on this schedule

1533
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:11,080
Speaker 1: where you can hedge out of a win total of

1534
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 1: six and a half. So I'm gonna stay away from

1535
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:16,519
Speaker 1: the totals on the overs weekly on San Diego State.

1536
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 1: I feel like, you know, Heklinski's gonna get this offense

1537
01:09:19,200 --> 01:09:21,320
Speaker 1: going at some point once he gets stable quarterback play.

1538
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 2: But I love San Diego State over six and a half.

1539
01:09:24,360 --> 01:09:26,719
Speaker 1: Lots of chances to get out of this bet after

1540
01:09:26,720 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 1: they win six games early in the season.

1541
01:09:28,680 --> 01:09:31,360
Speaker 3: Doctor, I actually think Lucas Johnson is terrible. So that's

1542
01:09:31,360 --> 01:09:34,360
Speaker 3: why I am not buying San Diego State. And we

1543
01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:38,760
Speaker 3: will see if you do avoid those San Diego State

1544
01:09:38,800 --> 01:09:40,800
Speaker 3: over It's easy to say now in August, but we'll

1545
01:09:40,800 --> 01:09:44,439
Speaker 3: see come September. All right, let's finish up and move on,

1546
01:09:44,960 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 3: And no better way to finish up five podcast than

1547
01:09:48,320 --> 01:10:04,320
Speaker 3: with some action. Look the mac, it's really hard to take.

1548
01:10:04,640 --> 01:10:04,880
Speaker 2: You know.

1549
01:10:05,120 --> 01:10:07,960
Speaker 3: We talk about priors and how much to weigh last year,

1550
01:10:08,000 --> 01:10:10,360
Speaker 3: and it's difficult because it was such a unique year

1551
01:10:10,760 --> 01:10:13,920
Speaker 3: for many teams. It was just it's especially difficult with

1552
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:17,440
Speaker 3: the MAC you had, you know, just conference only schedules.

1553
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:20,600
Speaker 3: In some cases, some teams only played three games, you know.

1554
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:22,559
Speaker 3: I think Ohio only played three games, and two of

1555
01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:24,880
Speaker 3: them came against Bowling Green and Acer. I mean, what

1556
01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:29,640
Speaker 3: can you take from that? So really hard to decipher

1557
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:32,360
Speaker 3: some of the results from last year, some teams more

1558
01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:35,120
Speaker 3: so than others. But let's dive in here. Let's we

1559
01:10:35,240 --> 01:10:36,840
Speaker 3: might as well start with the MAC East and we'll

1560
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:38,960
Speaker 3: just get the get the shit out of the way.

1561
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:41,200
Speaker 2: Out of the way.

1562
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:43,480
Speaker 3: Now, what's start with Bowling Green.

1563
01:10:44,040 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 1: And shield your eyes.

1564
01:10:46,880 --> 01:10:51,200
Speaker 5: This team is officially trash.

1565
01:10:49,960 --> 01:10:53,479
Speaker 3: Over one and a half plus one ten. Look, this

1566
01:10:53,560 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 3: team stunk last year. Was one of the youngest teams

1567
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:58,880
Speaker 3: I've ever seen in my entire life. They couldn't do anything.

1568
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:00,679
Speaker 3: They didn't leave for a single second. They got blown

1569
01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:02,720
Speaker 3: out by Acer, and they didn't win a game. Matt

1570
01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:06,880
Speaker 3: McDonald returns under center. Former Boston College quarterback. He was

1571
01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:09,360
Speaker 3: awful last year, worst quarterback in the country by any measure.

1572
01:11:09,400 --> 01:11:12,240
Speaker 3: Now he had off seasons shoulder surgery. Maybe he wasn't healthy.

1573
01:11:12,720 --> 01:11:14,880
Speaker 1: His like throw motion just looks yeah, does that explain

1574
01:11:14,960 --> 01:11:15,679
Speaker 1: his throwing motion?

1575
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:18,040
Speaker 3: Maybe that like will help their passing game.

1576
01:11:18,080 --> 01:11:18,879
Speaker 2: But here's the problem.

1577
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:23,760
Speaker 3: Their offensive line got depleted by transfers of medical retirement.

1578
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:27,479
Speaker 3: They only returned fourteen career starts on the offensive line.

1579
01:11:27,520 --> 01:11:31,200
Speaker 3: That's projected up four freshman starters, and ten of those

1580
01:11:31,240 --> 01:11:33,680
Speaker 3: fourteenth starts are by their their right guards. That means

1581
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:38,280
Speaker 3: they're other four combined for four total starts. So you know,

1582
01:11:38,360 --> 01:11:40,040
Speaker 3: then you look at their they lost their top two

1583
01:11:40,080 --> 01:11:42,040
Speaker 3: pass catchers, including they had a first team All Map

1584
01:11:42,120 --> 01:11:46,479
Speaker 3: tight end. He's gone, Their best receiver's gone. The running

1585
01:11:46,479 --> 01:11:48,599
Speaker 3: back room is decent, but they don't have an offensive

1586
01:11:48,600 --> 01:11:50,680
Speaker 3: line that owned receiver who knows McDonald who missed the

1587
01:11:50,680 --> 01:11:54,120
Speaker 3: whole spring. Their two backup quarterbacks are freshmen. They also

1588
01:11:54,240 --> 01:11:56,719
Speaker 3: missed the spring, and then the spring got cut short

1589
01:11:56,760 --> 01:11:59,519
Speaker 3: because of COVID. Not great Bob for a team that's

1590
01:11:59,520 --> 01:12:02,719
Speaker 3: trying to re build from scratch with seventy five percent

1591
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:07,200
Speaker 3: of the rosters still freshman and red shirt freshman. Look,

1592
01:12:07,439 --> 01:12:10,720
Speaker 3: the defense was it couldn't stop a nosebleed. They do

1593
01:12:10,760 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 3: get rid of Brian Van Gorder, which I think is

1594
01:12:12,360 --> 01:12:12,839
Speaker 3: a positive.

1595
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:13,680
Speaker 2: Any time you get rid of.

1596
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:15,720
Speaker 3: Brian Van Gorder, it's good. They're gonna change for four

1597
01:12:15,760 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 3: to three to a three to four. How much worse

1598
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:19,960
Speaker 3: can it really get then last year? I don't know,

1599
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:22,200
Speaker 3: but they lose their two best linebackers and their top

1600
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:26,040
Speaker 3: corner who all transferred out. It's just freshmen across the board.

1601
01:12:26,280 --> 01:12:27,840
Speaker 3: This is going to take another two to three years.

1602
01:12:27,920 --> 01:12:31,040
Speaker 3: They never promise in recruiting class. But here's the question.

1603
01:12:31,080 --> 01:12:33,120
Speaker 3: What it really boils down to. This seems stinks, But

1604
01:12:33,439 --> 01:12:34,720
Speaker 3: if you want a bet over one and a half,

1605
01:12:34,760 --> 01:12:37,760
Speaker 3: it's slight plus money, which I won't. I won't I

1606
01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,960
Speaker 3: protect them in like one point three. I won't put

1607
01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:42,960
Speaker 3: my money near this team, and I won't recommend you do.

1608
01:12:43,000 --> 01:12:45,320
Speaker 3: But you have to look for three possible wins. They

1609
01:12:45,360 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 3: have three games, or if everything broke right, they could

1610
01:12:48,240 --> 01:12:54,000
Speaker 3: win at home Murray State, South Alabama and Akron revenge

1611
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:58,160
Speaker 3: game against Accron. I think they probably win one game.

1612
01:12:59,040 --> 01:13:01,679
Speaker 3: I can't see them getting two. I make the number

1613
01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:03,960
Speaker 3: one point three. I'm not betting over one and a

1614
01:13:03,960 --> 01:13:06,160
Speaker 3: half of this team that's still in complete rebuild mode.

1615
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:07,680
Speaker 3: What is your number?

1616
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:08,280
Speaker 2: Project?

1617
01:13:08,800 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 1: My win total on them is zero point nine to seven.

1618
01:13:12,479 --> 01:13:14,559
Speaker 1: They are projected to be minus four and a half

1619
01:13:14,600 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 1: against Murray State. If you were to integrate Sagarin ratings

1620
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:21,120
Speaker 1: in there. Once you get past that, this will lead

1621
01:13:21,160 --> 01:13:24,200
Speaker 1: into the next team. I can't go over one and

1622
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:26,880
Speaker 1: a half number, but this will lead into the next team.

1623
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:29,240
Speaker 1: To me, with the Acron game, it all depends on

1624
01:13:29,280 --> 01:13:34,800
Speaker 1: t On Dollard. T On Dollard and his status per

1625
01:13:34,960 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 1: some of the issues that he's having off the field

1626
01:13:37,600 --> 01:13:39,719
Speaker 1: means everything to Akron futures.

1627
01:13:39,720 --> 01:13:42,760
Speaker 3: To me, Yeah, t On Dollard, who shine last year

1628
01:13:42,840 --> 01:13:45,960
Speaker 3: running back despite a really bad offensive line. He's currently

1629
01:13:45,960 --> 01:13:49,880
Speaker 3: suspended for a gun charge. Status is unclear. Apparently he's

1630
01:13:49,920 --> 01:13:52,000
Speaker 3: in like a diversion program, so if he completes that,

1631
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 3: the charges cookie drop.

1632
01:13:53,120 --> 01:13:55,559
Speaker 2: But who knows if he's gonna play. The quarterback room

1633
01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 2: has some experience.

1634
01:13:56,520 --> 01:13:58,479
Speaker 3: Zach Gibson has just always been terrible, but he has

1635
01:13:58,479 --> 01:14:02,240
Speaker 3: no help at offensive line. And then Cato Nelson, you'll

1636
01:14:02,240 --> 01:14:04,280
Speaker 3: probably remember that name. He was out last year with

1637
01:14:04,400 --> 01:14:07,640
Speaker 3: shoulder surgery. DJ Irons and Juco transfer is also in

1638
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:10,000
Speaker 3: the mix. They do have six of the top seven

1639
01:14:10,000 --> 01:14:12,280
Speaker 3: targets back at receiver, but they do leave their top receiver,

1640
01:14:12,400 --> 01:14:15,960
Speaker 3: Nate Stewart, who transferred to Montana State. The offensive line

1641
01:14:15,960 --> 01:14:18,400
Speaker 3: has been so bad the past two years, there is

1642
01:14:18,439 --> 01:14:20,599
Speaker 3: at least some experience this year that yes, there's four

1643
01:14:20,640 --> 01:14:23,479
Speaker 3: projected red shirt freshmen to start around their center, but

1644
01:14:23,560 --> 01:14:27,280
Speaker 3: all four have starting experience at least last year. The

1645
01:14:27,360 --> 01:14:31,439
Speaker 3: defensive line they lost to everybody. It's really undersized. That's

1646
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:33,200
Speaker 3: the biggest question was see they could just be pushed

1647
01:14:33,240 --> 01:14:36,920
Speaker 3: around the linebackers. Strength of the team, first team all

1648
01:14:36,960 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 3: Matt Bubba, Arslanian and Brandon Bischoff. They'll clean up a

1649
01:14:40,040 --> 01:14:42,200
Speaker 3: ton of tackles, but the defensive line is just so

1650
01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:46,559
Speaker 3: bad you would expect just experience to help the secondary. Again,

1651
01:14:46,680 --> 01:14:49,639
Speaker 3: still a bad team, bottom five in the country over

1652
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:52,479
Speaker 3: to minus one ten. Where do you find the wins? Okay,

1653
01:14:52,479 --> 01:14:55,120
Speaker 3: they've played Brian at home win. I mean that's a

1654
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:58,840
Speaker 3: clear win, and then they're at They're at Bowling Green,

1655
01:15:00,040 --> 01:15:02,960
Speaker 3: so they'll be favored in that game. But do you

1656
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:04,160
Speaker 3: have them as a favorite there.

1657
01:15:04,360 --> 01:15:06,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got a minus six against Bowling Green.

1658
01:15:07,040 --> 01:15:08,880
Speaker 3: Yeah they'll be a favorite there, but they could drop

1659
01:15:08,920 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 3: that game Bowling Green.

1660
01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:12,720
Speaker 2: Other Bowling Green. I think, well, their losing streak will

1661
01:15:12,720 --> 01:15:15,080
Speaker 2: be over because they should beat Murray State. You would

1662
01:15:15,120 --> 01:15:17,599
Speaker 2: think maybe. But if not, you know, it's revenge.

1663
01:15:17,640 --> 01:15:19,479
Speaker 3: And this is maybe if they lose to Murray State,

1664
01:15:19,520 --> 01:15:21,559
Speaker 3: this is the one chance Bowling Green has. So can

1665
01:15:21,600 --> 01:15:23,479
Speaker 3: I go over two minus one ten? I don't know.

1666
01:15:23,560 --> 01:15:27,040
Speaker 3: I can't find if Dollard plays, I think they could

1667
01:15:27,080 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 3: win those two games in there at two. Where else

1668
01:15:30,240 --> 01:15:32,720
Speaker 3: do they win? I mean they have to pull off

1669
01:15:32,760 --> 01:15:34,360
Speaker 3: an upset at home. They're not gonna win on the

1670
01:15:34,400 --> 01:15:40,800
Speaker 3: road against anyone against Kent Temple, Buffalo, Ohio Ball State

1671
01:15:40,880 --> 01:15:44,439
Speaker 3: or Kent I mean, those are tough teams in the MAC.

1672
01:15:44,560 --> 01:15:45,840
Speaker 2: So it's tough for me.

1673
01:15:45,920 --> 01:15:49,200
Speaker 3: I project two point zero on the dot for Akron

1674
01:15:49,600 --> 01:15:53,000
Speaker 3: with the uncertainty of Dollard. So I can't go over unfortunately,

1675
01:15:53,040 --> 01:15:55,800
Speaker 3: as much as I wanted to. We will have to

1676
01:15:55,880 --> 01:15:58,120
Speaker 3: just find a place a spot to play actor during

1677
01:15:58,160 --> 01:15:58,639
Speaker 3: the season.

1678
01:15:58,840 --> 01:15:59,799
Speaker 2: No play on the window.

1679
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:02,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bryant and Bowling Green obviously being the wins. And

1680
01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:04,760
Speaker 1: for me, if you're going to beat Kent State at

1681
01:16:04,760 --> 01:16:06,600
Speaker 1: home towards the end of the season, you have to

1682
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:08,880
Speaker 1: have a player that misses tackles, and that guy is

1683
01:16:08,920 --> 01:16:11,000
Speaker 1: t On Dollard. So until we get information on t

1684
01:16:11,160 --> 01:16:12,880
Speaker 1: On dollar And why do I say Ken State?

1685
01:16:12,960 --> 01:16:13,120
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1686
01:16:13,200 --> 01:16:14,400
Speaker 2: Ken State's offense is.

1687
01:16:14,960 --> 01:16:17,719
Speaker 1: Like the excellence of maction, but there all their defense

1688
01:16:17,800 --> 01:16:20,000
Speaker 1: has fallen off even more of a cliff.

1689
01:16:20,560 --> 01:16:21,320
Speaker 2: I guess if you want to.

1690
01:16:21,320 --> 01:16:24,080
Speaker 1: Lead into them, I mean number one overall and success

1691
01:16:24,160 --> 01:16:27,679
Speaker 1: rate number one and finishing drives offensively offensively. Sean Lewis

1692
01:16:27,680 --> 01:16:31,000
Speaker 1: has this thing clicking. They can't seem to stop anybody

1693
01:16:31,040 --> 01:16:32,880
Speaker 1: from moving the chains and scoring, and it can. It's

1694
01:16:32,920 --> 01:16:34,559
Speaker 1: going to continue to be an issue for Kent State

1695
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:34,920
Speaker 1: this year.

1696
01:16:35,920 --> 01:16:38,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that'll lead into my future.

1697
01:16:38,240 --> 01:16:40,840
Speaker 3: I actually played Kent State fourteen to one to win

1698
01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:44,479
Speaker 3: the MAC, and here's my case for it. The winstill

1699
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:46,680
Speaker 3: is only five and a half. They're over five and

1700
01:16:46,720 --> 01:16:49,559
Speaker 3: a half plus one fifteen. I would lean over there,

1701
01:16:49,560 --> 01:16:52,240
Speaker 3: but I just prefer the upside. And it's not necessarily

1702
01:16:52,280 --> 01:16:54,679
Speaker 3: as much as the upside as it is. I'm fading

1703
01:16:54,720 --> 01:16:56,720
Speaker 3: the rest of this division, right. So if you look

1704
01:16:56,720 --> 01:17:00,640
Speaker 3: at Ohio, Frank Soliz left after the he's winning his

1705
01:17:00,720 --> 01:17:03,559
Speaker 3: coach in MAC history, there a long time offensive corner

1706
01:17:03,600 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 3: takes over. But it just happened in July leaves the

1707
01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:09,320
Speaker 3: staff kind of scrambling. They also, you know, they lose

1708
01:17:09,360 --> 01:17:10,960
Speaker 3: their two best defenders and they still.

1709
01:17:10,840 --> 01:17:11,719
Speaker 2: Don't have a quarterback.

1710
01:17:11,840 --> 01:17:14,719
Speaker 3: Right they have Armani Rodgers, the UNLB transfer, and Nathan Rourke.

1711
01:17:14,960 --> 01:17:18,120
Speaker 3: Nathan Wurk underwent offseason shoulder surgery as well, a theme

1712
01:17:18,160 --> 01:17:20,840
Speaker 3: in the MAC. He's more of the thrower. Rogers is

1713
01:17:20,840 --> 01:17:22,880
Speaker 3: more of the dual threat. I think work has the

1714
01:17:22,960 --> 01:17:24,280
Speaker 3: edge right now in camp, but they've said they want

1715
01:17:24,280 --> 01:17:26,479
Speaker 3: to use them both. But they have two different skill sets.

1716
01:17:26,479 --> 01:17:30,360
Speaker 3: And I hate when teams rotate quarterbacks. New coach quarterback questions.

1717
01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:31,559
Speaker 2: No thanks.

1718
01:17:31,920 --> 01:17:35,960
Speaker 3: So that's Ohio, That's one of the contenders in the

1719
01:17:36,000 --> 01:17:39,200
Speaker 3: MAC East. Then you move on to Miami Ohio. Look,

1720
01:17:39,240 --> 01:17:42,120
Speaker 3: Brett Gabert comes back, who had an amazing twenty nineteenth

1721
01:17:42,120 --> 01:17:44,519
Speaker 3: freshman year when they won the conference. They'll get their

1722
01:17:44,520 --> 01:17:46,880
Speaker 3: two top backs back from two twenty nineteen. They really

1723
01:17:46,920 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 3: missed them last year, and Bester and Shelton good receivers.

1724
01:17:51,640 --> 01:17:55,679
Speaker 3: The defense that returns ten starters, really good linebackers, although

1725
01:17:55,720 --> 01:17:57,920
Speaker 3: they do lose their best corner. Corner is a big question.

1726
01:17:58,000 --> 01:18:01,760
Speaker 3: They lost for Gamba should be solid. They can get

1727
01:18:01,800 --> 01:18:04,320
Speaker 3: after the quarterback defend the run. But my question is

1728
01:18:04,360 --> 01:18:07,040
Speaker 3: that offensive line. I mean that offensive line got gutted,

1729
01:18:07,080 --> 01:18:09,519
Speaker 3: and that's generally been the strength of Miami of Ohio.

1730
01:18:10,080 --> 01:18:13,120
Speaker 3: I mean, look, you have you have six to eight

1731
01:18:13,200 --> 01:18:15,519
Speaker 3: left tackle. Tommy o'duole left for the NFL, got selected

1732
01:18:15,520 --> 01:18:17,360
Speaker 3: by the Bills in the fifth round. You have your

1733
01:18:17,360 --> 01:18:21,080
Speaker 3: stud center Danny Godlefski transferred to Oklahoma State. They have

1734
01:18:21,160 --> 01:18:23,360
Speaker 3: no players who have started over ten games in their

1735
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:27,200
Speaker 3: career coming back. So I have questions about that offensive line.

1736
01:18:27,439 --> 01:18:29,880
Speaker 3: And then you move on to Buffalo and may the

1737
01:18:29,920 --> 01:18:32,800
Speaker 3: whole staff leaves and they take you know, eight to

1738
01:18:32,800 --> 01:18:35,240
Speaker 3: ten players with them. I mean you look across the board.

1739
01:18:35,680 --> 01:18:39,439
Speaker 3: You have three defensive tackles, you transferred, line back, I

1740
01:18:39,479 --> 01:18:42,200
Speaker 3: mean a cross a linebacker, corners. You know, they lost

1741
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:45,240
Speaker 3: their their leading receiver, they lost their leading rusher and

1742
01:18:45,360 --> 01:18:52,280
Speaker 3: Jared Patterson. I mean the offense, yeah, I mean the

1743
01:18:52,320 --> 01:18:55,559
Speaker 3: offensive line got absolutely got a third team All MacGuard

1744
01:18:55,600 --> 01:18:58,240
Speaker 3: Jacob gall transferred to Baylor. I was sick that went

1745
01:18:58,240 --> 01:18:59,960
Speaker 3: to the NFL. He just signed with the Eagles. There

1746
01:19:00,080 --> 01:19:03,520
Speaker 3: stud left tackle. You know, they lost Ishman to a transfer,

1747
01:19:03,640 --> 01:19:06,559
Speaker 3: their offensive line coach left. They returned the third few

1748
01:19:06,640 --> 01:19:09,120
Speaker 3: starts of any offensive line in the country that none

1749
01:19:09,160 --> 01:19:12,040
Speaker 3: has gone at receiver. Their stud tight end is gone,

1750
01:19:12,520 --> 01:19:15,040
Speaker 3: Patterson has gone. I know Kevin Marks is a good backup,

1751
01:19:15,080 --> 01:19:17,080
Speaker 3: but this offense, I think is going to take a

1752
01:19:17,120 --> 01:19:17,760
Speaker 3: major step back.

1753
01:19:17,800 --> 01:19:20,439
Speaker 2: I'm selling Buffalo. I'm under seven and a half on them.

1754
01:19:20,840 --> 01:19:23,000
Speaker 3: I know the number was higher, but look, so these

1755
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:27,080
Speaker 3: are teams Buffalo, major questions, Miao, Ohio with their offensive line,

1756
01:19:27,240 --> 01:19:31,200
Speaker 3: Ohio with who's their quarterback? Coaching change. I mean they

1757
01:19:31,200 --> 01:19:32,800
Speaker 3: have a coach who hasn't been a head coach. It's

1758
01:19:32,840 --> 01:19:36,719
Speaker 3: like nineteen ninety seven. I think at Northwestern Oklahoma State

1759
01:19:37,200 --> 01:19:40,760
Speaker 3: major custions. That leaves Kent State and Kent State's defense stinks,

1760
01:19:41,040 --> 01:19:42,400
Speaker 3: but they at least they had eight of their top

1761
01:19:42,439 --> 01:19:44,519
Speaker 3: nine tackles return. It's really the run defense. They just

1762
01:19:44,560 --> 01:19:46,920
Speaker 3: anyone can run all over them. Because I like some

1763
01:19:46,960 --> 01:19:49,120
Speaker 3: of their pieces they have in the secondary Alvios times.

1764
01:19:49,120 --> 01:19:50,800
Speaker 3: I think it is a good corner Sheryl comes back

1765
01:19:50,840 --> 01:19:53,679
Speaker 3: at safety. Can they do anything from a scheme perspective

1766
01:19:53,760 --> 01:19:56,320
Speaker 3: or just experiences stop the run because they really can't.

1767
01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:58,439
Speaker 3: I mean you saw them against Buffalo. Buffalo just ran

1768
01:19:58,479 --> 01:20:00,720
Speaker 3: it down their third and put up seventy points. But

1769
01:20:01,200 --> 01:20:04,439
Speaker 3: they have the best quarterback in the conference in Dustin Crumb.

1770
01:20:04,560 --> 01:20:07,080
Speaker 3: They have the best I think offensive line in the conference.

1771
01:20:07,439 --> 01:20:10,400
Speaker 3: They did lose Isaiah mcquitt receiver, but they still have

1772
01:20:11,040 --> 01:20:13,240
Speaker 3: you know, advance went down in the spring, but they

1773
01:20:13,240 --> 01:20:15,400
Speaker 3: have a couple of Syracuse transfers who I think will

1774
01:20:15,439 --> 01:20:18,240
Speaker 3: contribute at NIKEM Johnson, who I think is a stud

1775
01:20:18,840 --> 01:20:21,960
Speaker 3: tight end, Aaron Hackett as well. You know, so I

1776
01:20:22,000 --> 01:20:25,240
Speaker 3: think that they're fine at receiver. The offense is just

1777
01:20:25,360 --> 01:20:28,120
Speaker 3: a machine at this point. It really doesn't matter who

1778
01:20:28,120 --> 01:20:31,080
Speaker 3: you even plug into this fat, flash, fast, aggressive offense.

1779
01:20:31,760 --> 01:20:34,120
Speaker 3: With crom who can run the ball, you can throw it,

1780
01:20:34,600 --> 01:20:36,519
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be in the mix. And

1781
01:20:36,600 --> 01:20:39,479
Speaker 3: with questions I have with these other teams in the division,

1782
01:20:39,840 --> 01:20:43,360
Speaker 3: I found a fourteen to one out there. I'm selling Buffalo,

1783
01:20:44,000 --> 01:20:47,320
Speaker 3: so I'm going under on Buffalo. I bought Kent State

1784
01:20:47,400 --> 01:20:51,400
Speaker 3: fourteen to one to win the conference. Those are my

1785
01:20:51,439 --> 01:20:53,040
Speaker 3: only plays in the East. I have three in the West,

1786
01:20:53,040 --> 01:20:54,240
Speaker 3: which we'll get to any thoughts.

1787
01:20:54,479 --> 01:20:56,639
Speaker 1: Well can say that fourteen to one is a great

1788
01:20:56,760 --> 01:20:59,519
Speaker 1: number because when you look at this East division, which

1789
01:21:00,240 --> 01:21:03,599
Speaker 1: we've labeled as shit, and so Kent State, by default,

1790
01:21:04,200 --> 01:21:06,920
Speaker 1: no defense in this division can keep up with what

1791
01:21:06,960 --> 01:21:10,000
Speaker 1: they do Offensively. We're talking number one and finishing drives,

1792
01:21:10,120 --> 01:21:12,760
Speaker 1: ninth in line yards, top ten and almost everything. I'm

1793
01:21:12,760 --> 01:21:15,439
Speaker 1: staring at, passing success right, rushing success right, top ten.

1794
01:21:15,760 --> 01:21:17,800
Speaker 1: And the thing is nobody in that division can handle that.

1795
01:21:17,960 --> 01:21:19,880
Speaker 1: Then when you look at the schedule who they pull

1796
01:21:19,920 --> 01:21:22,080
Speaker 1: from the other side, there are some pretty big teams

1797
01:21:22,439 --> 01:21:25,360
Speaker 1: over in the West Division, except Ken State didn't get them.

1798
01:21:25,400 --> 01:21:28,479
Speaker 1: They get to avoid Toledo, they get to avoid ball State,

1799
01:21:28,840 --> 01:21:31,920
Speaker 1: they get Northern Illinois on the schedule. Those are all

1800
01:21:31,960 --> 01:21:35,040
Speaker 1: positives for Kent State in a whole division that's going

1801
01:21:35,080 --> 01:21:38,519
Speaker 1: through transition with the two best teams losing their head

1802
01:21:38,520 --> 01:21:41,200
Speaker 1: coaches from the bottom. While we got surgery going on

1803
01:21:41,320 --> 01:21:43,360
Speaker 1: the quarterback of Bowling Greham, we got t On Dollard.

1804
01:21:43,360 --> 01:21:44,839
Speaker 1: We don't know if he's going to be there for Ackron.

1805
01:21:45,040 --> 01:21:46,880
Speaker 1: This is Kent State's division to win. So if you

1806
01:21:46,920 --> 01:21:49,519
Speaker 1: can find a Kent State Division number, that's great. But

1807
01:21:49,560 --> 01:21:52,000
Speaker 1: at fourteen to one, What'stuck He's saying is is you're

1808
01:21:52,040 --> 01:21:54,000
Speaker 1: going to head into the Max Championship game with a

1809
01:21:54,160 --> 01:21:56,559
Speaker 1: large take. It to hedge on against one of these

1810
01:21:56,600 --> 01:21:57,639
Speaker 1: powerhouses that's going to.

1811
01:21:57,560 --> 01:21:58,120
Speaker 2: Come out of the West.

1812
01:21:58,160 --> 01:22:00,400
Speaker 3: I love it or you let it ride like we

1813
01:22:00,439 --> 01:22:02,240
Speaker 3: did with Ball State last year nine to one.

1814
01:22:02,439 --> 01:22:02,639
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1815
01:22:02,760 --> 01:22:04,800
Speaker 3: The one team you didn't mention Mine of Ohio, who

1816
01:22:04,880 --> 01:22:07,360
Speaker 3: does have offensive line questions, but they have their coach

1817
01:22:07,360 --> 01:22:09,760
Speaker 3: and a little more stability. Kent State hosts them in

1818
01:22:09,800 --> 01:22:12,679
Speaker 3: the season finale and that could decide the division at home.

1819
01:22:12,920 --> 01:22:15,080
Speaker 3: So a lot of valley in Kent State, I think

1820
01:22:15,360 --> 01:22:17,639
Speaker 3: at fourteen twelve to one, I think is out there too.

1821
01:22:17,720 --> 01:22:20,559
Speaker 3: I wouldn't go much lower than that. All right, let's

1822
01:22:20,560 --> 01:22:23,640
Speaker 3: move over to the West and finish up here. I

1823
01:22:23,640 --> 01:22:26,160
Speaker 3: think the West is a fascinating race. You know, you

1824
01:22:26,200 --> 01:22:31,559
Speaker 3: have Toledo, Western Michigan, Ball State the defending champs. You

1825
01:22:31,560 --> 01:22:33,960
Speaker 3: can really make cases for all them, even Central Michigan.

1826
01:22:34,040 --> 01:22:35,920
Speaker 3: I think it's a little tougher to make cases for

1827
01:22:36,560 --> 01:22:39,280
Speaker 3: Eastern Michigan and especially Northern Illinois.

1828
01:22:39,760 --> 01:22:40,880
Speaker 2: How beautiful is maction?

1829
01:22:41,720 --> 01:22:42,800
Speaker 4: Beautiful is maction?

1830
01:22:43,320 --> 01:22:45,479
Speaker 2: Oh Man, Just when we thought we had.

1831
01:22:45,320 --> 01:22:48,080
Speaker 3: Peak Max, let's start at the bottom once again, just

1832
01:22:48,120 --> 01:22:52,000
Speaker 3: with Northern Illinois. Look, Ross Bauers left a quarterback who's

1833
01:22:52,040 --> 01:22:55,559
Speaker 3: in Now it's Rocky Lombardi, who we hate. So I

1834
01:22:55,600 --> 01:22:58,880
Speaker 3: mean the rest of the offense is intact. I mean,

1835
01:22:58,920 --> 01:23:02,160
Speaker 3: Tyree Richie is a good receiver and they do. They

1836
01:23:02,160 --> 01:23:03,800
Speaker 3: do lose a second team All Mack tight end and

1837
01:23:03,880 --> 01:23:06,479
Speaker 3: Daniel Crawford. They bring in a Youngstown transfer, but the

1838
01:23:06,479 --> 01:23:09,360
Speaker 3: rest of the offense is there, but it's still really young.

1839
01:23:09,400 --> 01:23:11,559
Speaker 3: You want to talk about a team that's young young

1840
01:23:12,000 --> 01:23:14,519
Speaker 3: Thomas Hammock, in his third year, came from the Baltimore Ravens.

1841
01:23:14,760 --> 01:23:17,360
Speaker 3: You would think that this team has a little more experience.

1842
01:23:17,439 --> 01:23:17,840
Speaker 2: They don't.

1843
01:23:17,880 --> 01:23:21,160
Speaker 3: I mean, four of the five projected starters are still underclassmen.

1844
01:23:21,800 --> 01:23:25,960
Speaker 3: Everyone on the defensive line, all four starters are projected

1845
01:23:26,000 --> 01:23:29,200
Speaker 3: to be freshmen. Look at their linebacking group. Devo should

1846
01:23:29,280 --> 01:23:32,400
Speaker 3: come back at middle linebacker. He's missed the past two

1847
01:23:32,439 --> 01:23:35,080
Speaker 3: seasons as a senior with due to injury. If he's healthy,

1848
01:23:35,080 --> 01:23:40,640
Speaker 3: that'll help. Unfortunately, Kyle Pugh, they're a projected senior outside linebacker.

1849
01:23:40,800 --> 01:23:42,920
Speaker 3: He's suffered an injury in the spring. He's out. So

1850
01:23:42,920 --> 01:23:45,440
Speaker 3: what's that mean? Two freshmen are projected on the outside.

1851
01:23:45,760 --> 01:23:48,840
Speaker 3: The secondary started two freshmen last year. The entire two

1852
01:23:48,880 --> 01:23:51,880
Speaker 3: deep does return and Jordan Gandhi is a pretty good player.

1853
01:23:51,920 --> 01:23:53,280
Speaker 2: But they are going to.

1854
01:23:53,280 --> 01:23:55,439
Speaker 3: Start three freshmen in the secondary. I mean they are

1855
01:23:55,520 --> 01:23:58,639
Speaker 3: just there's no seniors on this team, freshman freshman, freshmen

1856
01:23:58,680 --> 01:24:00,360
Speaker 3: all over. So I think there are a couple means

1857
01:24:00,960 --> 01:24:03,120
Speaker 3: a couple of seasons away. And I'm not a Rocky

1858
01:24:03,120 --> 01:24:07,400
Speaker 3: Lombardi fan. Win totals four, I went under. I paid

1859
01:24:07,600 --> 01:24:10,519
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five to go under four. Look, here's

1860
01:24:10,520 --> 01:24:13,000
Speaker 3: their four don conference games in September. At Georgia Tech.

1861
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:15,240
Speaker 3: That's a loss at home against Wyoming, that's a loss

1862
01:24:15,320 --> 01:24:18,200
Speaker 3: at Michigan. That's a loss home against Maine. Will give

1863
01:24:18,240 --> 01:24:21,200
Speaker 3: them one and three, so they start one to three.

1864
01:24:21,479 --> 01:24:25,400
Speaker 3: Here's their road schedule in conference Toledo, Central Michigan, Kent State,

1865
01:24:25,439 --> 01:24:28,120
Speaker 3: and Buffalo. Don't see any wins there. I know the

1866
01:24:28,160 --> 01:24:31,160
Speaker 3: MAC is unpredictable, but that should be owned four. And

1867
01:24:31,200 --> 01:24:34,200
Speaker 3: then that leaves four league home games against Eastern Michigan.

1868
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:36,599
Speaker 3: We'll give them a win, Bowling Green can We'll give

1869
01:24:36,640 --> 01:24:39,479
Speaker 3: them a win. They're at three Ball State and Western Michigan. No,

1870
01:24:40,000 --> 01:24:43,080
Speaker 3: So I mean I see three. Maybe they get to four.

1871
01:24:43,520 --> 01:24:45,479
Speaker 3: I can't see them sweeping those games to get the

1872
01:24:45,560 --> 01:24:49,640
Speaker 3: five wins so I'm right around projected three wins, and

1873
01:24:49,680 --> 01:24:52,000
Speaker 3: I don't like Lombardi, and this team is just so young.

1874
01:24:52,320 --> 01:24:54,840
Speaker 3: There's still a year or two away if Hammock wants

1875
01:24:54,880 --> 01:24:57,880
Speaker 3: to get this team back to Bowl contentions. I went

1876
01:24:57,960 --> 01:25:00,519
Speaker 3: under four in Northern Illinois. Any thoughts there, I completely

1877
01:25:00,560 --> 01:25:02,639
Speaker 3: agree projection at three point four. I don't know where

1878
01:25:02,640 --> 01:25:04,640
Speaker 3: they get those wins from. But Thomas Hammock in his

1879
01:25:04,680 --> 01:25:06,719
Speaker 3: third year owen six record.

1880
01:25:06,840 --> 01:25:07,320
Speaker 2: Last year.

1881
01:25:07,400 --> 01:25:11,920
Speaker 1: Four of those opponents scored forty points. Defensively, they fell

1882
01:25:11,920 --> 01:25:14,799
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred defensive success rate. They finished

1883
01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:17,759
Speaker 1: ninetieth in defensive havoc. Everything is going in the wrong

1884
01:25:17,800 --> 01:25:20,800
Speaker 1: direction for Thomas. For Thomas Hammock. So you know, we'll

1885
01:25:20,800 --> 01:25:22,639
Speaker 1: see if he can turn around here with his young roster.

1886
01:25:22,760 --> 01:25:25,080
Speaker 1: But I mean, the schedule is unkind Rocky Lombardi a

1887
01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:27,760
Speaker 1: quarterback is not the answer. No play for me. But

1888
01:25:27,800 --> 01:25:29,360
Speaker 1: there's no way they get to five wins.

1889
01:25:29,640 --> 01:25:31,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, let's move to the top the college

1890
01:25:31,439 --> 01:25:33,200
Speaker 3: to try to just pick out a who's going to

1891
01:25:33,280 --> 01:25:35,719
Speaker 3: come out of this ball state. I wanted to sell

1892
01:25:35,800 --> 01:25:37,519
Speaker 3: even though I was all in a ball state last year,

1893
01:25:37,520 --> 01:25:39,439
Speaker 3: I wanted to sell them. I mean, Look, I benefited

1894
01:25:39,439 --> 01:25:41,360
Speaker 3: from him financially. I hope a lot of you did too.

1895
01:25:41,640 --> 01:25:44,840
Speaker 3: But we got fairly lucky. I mean, there were four

1896
01:25:44,840 --> 01:25:47,719
Speaker 3: and one in one possession games plus nine turnover margin.

1897
01:25:48,200 --> 01:25:50,800
Speaker 3: They just got so many timely stops and turnovers late.

1898
01:25:51,479 --> 01:25:54,439
Speaker 3: I'm just not sure they can duplicate that success high

1899
01:25:54,479 --> 01:25:57,000
Speaker 3: regression Cannady in a lot of those departments.

1900
01:25:57,280 --> 01:25:58,240
Speaker 2: They did end up finishing.

1901
01:25:58,320 --> 01:26:01,000
Speaker 3: And look, they played San Jose State in the ballgame,

1902
01:26:01,040 --> 01:26:03,360
Speaker 3: who was missing a ton of players. But they finished

1903
01:26:03,400 --> 01:26:05,479
Speaker 3: in the top twenty five. But trying to get their

1904
01:26:05,479 --> 01:26:08,559
Speaker 3: first back to back winning season since twenty thirteen Drew

1905
01:26:08,600 --> 01:26:11,559
Speaker 3: Plitt comes back. They've returned a ton of production across

1906
01:26:11,560 --> 01:26:13,840
Speaker 3: the board. They do have to replace one cornerback, which

1907
01:26:14,080 --> 01:26:15,920
Speaker 3: is something to watch. They lose their star running back,

1908
01:26:15,920 --> 01:26:18,000
Speaker 3: but they didn't have them for a lot of last year.

1909
01:26:18,200 --> 01:26:21,040
Speaker 3: I think they're the best receiving too in the conference

1910
01:26:21,040 --> 01:26:23,759
Speaker 3: in Hall in Tyler Hall, I think is the returning

1911
01:26:23,920 --> 01:26:24,840
Speaker 3: receiving leader in.

1912
01:26:24,800 --> 01:26:26,040
Speaker 2: All of FBS.

1913
01:26:26,280 --> 01:26:28,479
Speaker 3: But and look, all five starters are on the offensive

1914
01:26:28,479 --> 01:26:30,280
Speaker 3: line is the story of Look, but they're out now,

1915
01:26:30,280 --> 01:26:31,840
Speaker 3: they're the hunting and I don't think that they're gonna

1916
01:26:31,840 --> 01:26:34,080
Speaker 3: be look, I make the win total seven and a half,

1917
01:26:34,240 --> 01:26:36,400
Speaker 3: so the wind total was set at seven and a half.

1918
01:26:36,560 --> 01:26:37,599
Speaker 2: The market, I thought they were good.

1919
01:26:37,640 --> 01:26:39,679
Speaker 3: The market was gonna be really high on them after

1920
01:26:39,720 --> 01:26:42,439
Speaker 3: what happened last year, but pretty fair prices across the board.

1921
01:26:42,800 --> 01:26:45,840
Speaker 3: Then you have a Western Michigan team. If you like fireworks, man,

1922
01:26:45,920 --> 01:26:48,160
Speaker 3: this offense can go. I think Albi is one of

1923
01:26:48,160 --> 01:26:50,200
Speaker 3: the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.

1924
01:26:50,680 --> 01:26:51,000
Speaker 2: This is kid.

1925
01:26:51,080 --> 01:26:52,519
Speaker 3: It was a rocket arm but finished in the top

1926
01:26:52,560 --> 01:26:55,040
Speaker 3: three and you name the statistic. He was in the

1927
01:26:55,040 --> 01:26:58,160
Speaker 3: top three last year justin net yards, for play, yards

1928
01:26:58,160 --> 01:27:02,240
Speaker 3: per play, quarterback rating, completetion percentage, all of it across

1929
01:27:02,240 --> 01:27:04,880
Speaker 3: the board. They do lose Dwayne Eskritch, who was just

1930
01:27:04,920 --> 01:27:09,320
Speaker 3: a phenomenal talent, but they have so much talent still

1931
01:27:09,479 --> 01:27:12,519
Speaker 3: on the outside. A loaded running back room. The offense

1932
01:27:12,600 --> 01:27:15,839
Speaker 3: is going to score. They're going to put up forty

1933
01:27:15,920 --> 01:27:19,479
Speaker 3: plus points most games. The questions on the defense. Holly

1934
01:27:20,000 --> 01:27:22,479
Speaker 3: Fiet up on the defensive line, that's the strength. They

1935
01:27:22,479 --> 01:27:25,400
Speaker 3: can get pressure on a posing quarterback. But the secondary,

1936
01:27:25,479 --> 01:27:28,080
Speaker 3: I mean the secondary is just gets torched and they

1937
01:27:28,120 --> 01:27:32,240
Speaker 3: lose all mac cornerback Patrick Lubraw, who is not playing

1938
01:27:32,240 --> 01:27:33,840
Speaker 3: this year to focus on studies. I think that just

1939
01:27:33,880 --> 01:27:37,720
Speaker 3: means he's academically ineligible. So they're gonna have a pit

1940
01:27:37,760 --> 01:27:39,040
Speaker 3: transfer comes back from injury.

1941
01:27:39,080 --> 01:27:40,120
Speaker 2: They need him to step up.

1942
01:27:40,760 --> 01:27:44,720
Speaker 3: It's projected right now a receiver that they transition to

1943
01:27:44,800 --> 01:27:47,760
Speaker 3: corner is going to start at corner, so that it's

1944
01:27:47,840 --> 01:27:51,040
Speaker 3: really scary in the secondary. If the defense can improve

1945
01:27:51,080 --> 01:27:53,320
Speaker 3: just a little bit on the back end, this team

1946
01:27:53,320 --> 01:27:55,200
Speaker 3: can win the conference. If not, they're just going to

1947
01:27:55,240 --> 01:27:57,439
Speaker 3: be in these shootouts that are just high variants that

1948
01:27:57,800 --> 01:27:59,759
Speaker 3: can go either way, which we saw if Western Michigan

1949
01:27:59,840 --> 01:28:01,840
Speaker 3: Land year. And then you have Toledo, which I think

1950
01:28:01,920 --> 01:28:04,760
Speaker 3: is the most complete team in the conference. They just

1951
01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:07,799
Speaker 3: need to find a quarterback because Eli Peters medically retired.

1952
01:28:08,479 --> 01:28:11,000
Speaker 3: You have a Georgia Tech transfer Tucker Gleeson in there,

1953
01:28:11,040 --> 01:28:14,639
Speaker 3: you have Carter Bradley or retro freshman Dakwon Finn. They're

1954
01:28:14,680 --> 01:28:16,719
Speaker 3: in a competition right now. If they find a quarterback

1955
01:28:16,800 --> 01:28:19,400
Speaker 3: this team. The offense is going to be great. Kobak

1956
01:28:19,520 --> 01:28:22,919
Speaker 3: running the ball. They returned all eleven starters on defense.

1957
01:28:23,040 --> 01:28:27,479
Speaker 3: This team just has experience for days the defense. Look

1958
01:28:27,720 --> 01:28:31,479
Speaker 3: Daishwan Johnson, I think he's on the nigirsky List, defensive

1959
01:28:31,520 --> 01:28:36,479
Speaker 3: end Jabal Hines, Deontay Johnson. There linebackers a stud two

1960
01:28:36,560 --> 01:28:40,479
Speaker 3: All Macs safeties, a lockdown corner, and Womack, who finished

1961
01:28:40,479 --> 01:28:42,479
Speaker 3: top five in pass breakups each the last two seasons.

1962
01:28:42,479 --> 01:28:46,160
Speaker 3: The defense has players Oliver finally is a title worthy defense.

1963
01:28:46,320 --> 01:28:48,320
Speaker 3: It now only had judge Colepepper, who gives them from

1964
01:28:48,360 --> 01:28:50,759
Speaker 3: Penn State, who gives them size of the nose tackle

1965
01:28:50,800 --> 01:28:54,400
Speaker 3: position opposite of Johnson. So I think they're the most

1966
01:28:54,400 --> 01:28:58,000
Speaker 3: talented team. I'm projected as the best team. They returned

1967
01:28:58,000 --> 01:29:01,400
Speaker 3: more production than any team in the country. No, I

1968
01:29:01,439 --> 01:29:03,720
Speaker 3: don't think that means as much as people are saying

1969
01:29:03,720 --> 01:29:06,800
Speaker 3: because so many teams have experience returning. But this team

1970
01:29:06,880 --> 01:29:09,800
Speaker 3: is loaded. They came agonizingly close to six to oh

1971
01:29:09,920 --> 01:29:12,040
Speaker 3: last year. They lost two games by three points each.

1972
01:29:12,320 --> 01:29:14,960
Speaker 3: They were leading by ten against Western Michigan with two

1973
01:29:14,960 --> 01:29:17,720
Speaker 3: minutes to go and then they fumbled at the ball

1974
01:29:17,760 --> 01:29:20,840
Speaker 3: State forty in the final minute, down by three. So

1975
01:29:21,439 --> 01:29:23,920
Speaker 3: you know, I really love this team. I love the

1976
01:29:23,960 --> 01:29:26,599
Speaker 3: upside of them. I wanted to buy them. And don't

1977
01:29:26,600 --> 01:29:28,240
Speaker 3: forget the home field avantage. They had the best home

1978
01:29:28,240 --> 01:29:30,120
Speaker 3: field advantage in the back with fans back at the

1979
01:29:30,160 --> 01:29:35,519
Speaker 3: Glass Bowl. This team, I look, and they put one

1980
01:29:35,520 --> 01:29:37,599
Speaker 3: in two in one possession games last year, negative three

1981
01:29:37,720 --> 01:29:43,559
Speaker 3: turnover margin. Some positive regression might be coming their way.

1982
01:29:43,720 --> 01:29:47,559
Speaker 3: Here's the thing. The market is priced correctly on them

1983
01:29:47,680 --> 01:29:50,040
Speaker 3: in my opinion, like the market knows how good they are.

1984
01:29:50,280 --> 01:29:53,280
Speaker 3: I did buy them. I did bet an over eight

1985
01:29:53,280 --> 01:29:56,760
Speaker 3: and a half wins since I'm around nine to three

1986
01:29:56,920 --> 01:29:59,439
Speaker 3: nine four, so I show value in that. But I

1987
01:29:59,439 --> 01:30:03,080
Speaker 3: can't bet them plus two hundred to win the unpredictable MAC.

1988
01:30:03,960 --> 01:30:05,360
Speaker 2: So that's my thoughts on the top.

1989
01:30:05,520 --> 01:30:07,479
Speaker 3: You also have Central Michigan, which could be in the mix,

1990
01:30:08,080 --> 01:30:10,840
Speaker 3: and then EMU, which I didn't mention. Go ahead and

1991
01:30:10,880 --> 01:30:13,160
Speaker 3: get in there. I'll stop my MAC rambling. You got

1992
01:30:13,160 --> 01:30:14,080
Speaker 3: anything in the West?

1993
01:30:14,280 --> 01:30:17,240
Speaker 1: Well, Eastern Michigan I love on a game to game basis,

1994
01:30:17,280 --> 01:30:19,479
Speaker 1: not for the not for the division, or for the conference.

1995
01:30:19,520 --> 01:30:22,599
Speaker 1: Because Preston Hutchinson just has certain advantages with his size

1996
01:30:22,600 --> 01:30:24,439
Speaker 1: in his arms. So there will be spot plays on

1997
01:30:24,479 --> 01:30:27,719
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan. No one does more with less than Chris Creighton,

1998
01:30:27,800 --> 01:30:31,719
Speaker 1: especially now that Lancelipold's gone from Buffalo, so Eastern michiganill

1999
01:30:31,720 --> 01:30:33,639
Speaker 1: be a spot on play during the season. I think

2000
01:30:33,880 --> 01:30:37,719
Speaker 1: you know, when we mentioned tarp transfer activity and returning production,

2001
01:30:38,200 --> 01:30:40,919
Speaker 1: everybody in this division had. I mean, from an offensive perspective,

2002
01:30:40,960 --> 01:30:44,040
Speaker 1: Toledo's at ninety five percent, right Eastern Michigan's at eighty

2003
01:30:44,040 --> 01:30:46,240
Speaker 1: seven percent. Central Michigan's at ninety one. But there is

2004
01:30:46,280 --> 01:30:49,000
Speaker 1: a lot going on here. Defensively, it's the same thing.

2005
01:30:49,120 --> 01:30:52,439
Speaker 1: The national average is seventy seven percent. Everybody in the

2006
01:30:52,479 --> 01:30:55,120
Speaker 1: West on the MAC returns at least seventy seven percent.

2007
01:30:55,160 --> 01:30:58,120
Speaker 1: On the defensive side of the ball, Toledo's at eighty

2008
01:30:58,160 --> 01:31:01,599
Speaker 1: eight percent, Eastern Michigan eighty five percent. That although I'd

2009
01:31:01,680 --> 01:31:03,519
Speaker 1: argue what they did on defense was pretty terrible at

2010
01:31:03,520 --> 01:31:05,639
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty seventh in defensive success rate.

2011
01:31:06,400 --> 01:31:07,519
Speaker 2: But I think when.

2012
01:31:07,400 --> 01:31:09,960
Speaker 1: Stuck tells you that Toledo is the team that's going

2013
01:31:10,000 --> 01:31:12,280
Speaker 1: to pull out here in the division, one thing that

2014
01:31:12,320 --> 01:31:15,120
Speaker 1: you need to consider is this schedule. This schedule is

2015
01:31:15,240 --> 01:31:18,559
Speaker 1: extremely conducive to Toledo having every chance in the world

2016
01:31:18,560 --> 01:31:20,680
Speaker 1: to win this division. When you take a look at it,

2017
01:31:20,680 --> 01:31:22,400
Speaker 1: They're going to start off with Norfolk State. We'll figure

2018
01:31:22,400 --> 01:31:24,080
Speaker 1: out who the quarterback's going to be, right, We start

2019
01:31:24,120 --> 01:31:26,760
Speaker 1: off with Norfolk State. Then we go to at Notre Dame.

2020
01:31:27,080 --> 01:31:29,920
Speaker 1: Win or lose, you're getting great experience for the MAC.

2021
01:31:29,960 --> 01:31:31,680
Speaker 1: We'll figure out who the quarterback is by then. But

2022
01:31:31,720 --> 01:31:34,040
Speaker 1: then you get Colorado State at home, which a game

2023
01:31:34,120 --> 01:31:36,120
Speaker 1: has no meaning in the MAC whatsoever. So you get

2024
01:31:36,160 --> 01:31:39,559
Speaker 1: these three games before you start conference play and you'll

2025
01:31:39,600 --> 01:31:41,479
Speaker 1: figure out who your quarterback is by then because there's

2026
01:31:41,479 --> 01:31:43,400
Speaker 1: a lot of red shirt freshmen on this on this

2027
01:31:43,720 --> 01:31:46,480
Speaker 1: roster for it, the quarterback is because everything else is resolved,

2028
01:31:46,560 --> 01:31:50,280
Speaker 1: the line, defense, everything with Toledo, all those positions are

2029
01:31:50,280 --> 01:31:53,120
Speaker 1: figured out. And once we get to conference play, it

2030
01:31:53,160 --> 01:31:55,400
Speaker 1: starts off at Ball State. Now, once they get done

2031
01:31:55,400 --> 01:31:57,320
Speaker 1: with that game, you know, win or lose, they play

2032
01:31:57,400 --> 01:32:00,320
Speaker 1: U Mass Right, it's like a pseudo bye week, and

2033
01:32:00,360 --> 01:32:02,559
Speaker 1: once they get downe to that in Northern Illinois, and

2034
01:32:02,560 --> 01:32:05,200
Speaker 1: then after that they get Central Michigan and Western Michigan.

2035
01:32:05,520 --> 01:32:07,960
Speaker 1: If they get through that part of the schedule. The

2036
01:32:08,000 --> 01:32:10,760
Speaker 1: rest of November, when maction really starts in Tuesday nights

2037
01:32:10,760 --> 01:32:13,559
Speaker 1: and Wednesday nights and bad weather and all that gunk

2038
01:32:13,600 --> 01:32:15,920
Speaker 1: fires up with this conference that we love so much.

2039
01:32:16,280 --> 01:32:19,719
Speaker 1: The remaining schedule in November is Eastern Michigan Bowling Green,

2040
01:32:19,840 --> 01:32:24,120
Speaker 1: Ohio and Akron. Yeah, Bowling Green and Akron and Ohio

2041
01:32:24,240 --> 01:32:27,320
Speaker 1: and No Frank Solich and Eastern Michigan in the month

2042
01:32:27,360 --> 01:32:31,280
Speaker 1: of November. You don't have to go through anything that's

2043
01:32:31,320 --> 01:32:33,720
Speaker 1: tough whatsoever, in the worst month of the in the

2044
01:32:33,760 --> 01:32:36,800
Speaker 1: worst weather month of the year. So let's just say

2045
01:32:36,840 --> 01:32:40,360
Speaker 1: Toledo is like completely reliant on this passing offense that

2046
01:32:40,400 --> 01:32:43,120
Speaker 1: they have whoever they identify or they need the turf

2047
01:32:43,160 --> 01:32:46,800
Speaker 1: to be in a certain situation, you know. I just

2048
01:32:46,840 --> 01:32:49,839
Speaker 1: think the schedule is completely conducive to Toledo winning this division.

2049
01:32:49,880 --> 01:32:51,120
Speaker 1: I think they're the ones that are going to face

2050
01:32:51,200 --> 01:32:54,120
Speaker 1: Kent State in again, that's probably going to be one

2051
01:32:54,200 --> 01:32:55,760
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty points. I don't know what the total

2052
01:32:55,800 --> 01:32:58,120
Speaker 1: is going to be in the MAC Championship. I know

2053
01:32:58,160 --> 01:33:01,679
Speaker 1: it's priced correctly, but Toledo is the only play. Western

2054
01:33:01,760 --> 01:33:04,320
Speaker 1: Michigan definitely has the offense to keep up, but they

2055
01:33:04,320 --> 01:33:07,160
Speaker 1: were almost dead last and defensive finishing drives, they let

2056
01:33:07,200 --> 01:33:10,400
Speaker 1: everybody score. Eastern Michigan I mentioned their defensive success rate

2057
01:33:10,520 --> 01:33:13,639
Speaker 1: not so great. Ball State. They won the conference. They

2058
01:33:13,640 --> 01:33:15,280
Speaker 1: made stuck a lot of money, but they were outside

2059
01:33:15,280 --> 01:33:17,960
Speaker 1: the top one hundred defensive success rate, so whether they

2060
01:33:17,960 --> 01:33:19,479
Speaker 1: can repeat what they did last year.

2061
01:33:19,880 --> 01:33:21,360
Speaker 2: They depended a lot on Havoc.

2062
01:33:21,760 --> 01:33:23,800
Speaker 1: They depended on a lot of drives going their way

2063
01:33:24,680 --> 01:33:26,560
Speaker 1: just from that, and I'm not sure if that's repeatable.

2064
01:33:26,640 --> 01:33:29,360
Speaker 1: So Toledo is the play. I know it's a little

2065
01:33:29,360 --> 01:33:31,479
Speaker 1: bit square because they're the ones that's priced correctly, but

2066
01:33:31,560 --> 01:33:33,559
Speaker 1: when you look at this schedule, and especially when you

2067
01:33:33,560 --> 01:33:36,360
Speaker 1: look when Mac fires up on Tuesday Wednesday Night's in November,

2068
01:33:37,760 --> 01:33:38,960
Speaker 1: it's a cake walk for Toledo.

2069
01:33:39,160 --> 01:33:40,400
Speaker 2: Yep, I completely agree.

2070
01:33:40,600 --> 01:33:42,160
Speaker 3: I didn't mention it, but I did to play Western

2071
01:33:42,160 --> 01:33:45,639
Speaker 3: Michigan over six. I make it closer to seven. And

2072
01:33:45,720 --> 01:33:48,760
Speaker 3: I know the defense is a concern, but this is

2073
01:33:48,760 --> 01:33:51,559
Speaker 3: a team that's kind of since Fleck left. They're just

2074
01:33:51,800 --> 01:33:55,599
Speaker 3: they haven't really peaked or broken through. But seven straight

2075
01:33:55,680 --> 01:33:57,920
Speaker 3: years they haven't had a losing record. I think they

2076
01:33:57,920 --> 01:33:59,360
Speaker 3: make that eight. They at least get to six. I

2077
01:33:59,400 --> 01:34:02,960
Speaker 3: make it close to seven. So I did play over there, Max,

2078
01:34:03,040 --> 01:34:12,120
Speaker 3: just so absolutely all right, Pore, we get out of here,

2079
01:34:12,160 --> 01:34:15,439
Speaker 3: Let's go three and ol two three.

2080
01:34:15,680 --> 01:34:18,040
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

2081
01:34:19,040 --> 01:34:22,519
Speaker 3: First out favorite over I'm going. I mean, I have

2082
01:34:22,560 --> 01:34:24,439
Speaker 3: to say SMU since I've talked about them so much,

2083
01:34:24,439 --> 01:34:26,080
Speaker 3: and it is the first that I made in my

2084
01:34:26,120 --> 01:34:29,200
Speaker 3: favorite one but honorable mention, you mass over one and

2085
01:34:29,200 --> 01:34:31,599
Speaker 3: a half, which is gonna be my favorite speat of

2086
01:34:31,640 --> 01:34:32,040
Speaker 3: the summer.

2087
01:34:32,040 --> 01:34:32,760
Speaker 2: Favorite over for you?

2088
01:34:33,080 --> 01:34:35,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, favorite over for me is gonna be Wyoming. They

2089
01:34:35,800 --> 01:34:38,760
Speaker 1: have a schedule conducive to winning nine games. They do

2090
01:34:38,840 --> 01:34:41,240
Speaker 1: travel to Boise, but outside of that, Craig Bowl gets

2091
01:34:41,280 --> 01:34:44,000
Speaker 1: everything on the offensive and defensive side back one of

2092
01:34:44,000 --> 01:34:46,840
Speaker 1: the best defenses in all the group of five, and

2093
01:34:47,120 --> 01:34:50,360
Speaker 1: they have depth at the quarterback position, something that they

2094
01:34:50,400 --> 01:34:53,120
Speaker 1: sometimes lack. So I love Wyoming to be a contender

2095
01:34:53,160 --> 01:34:54,480
Speaker 1: in the Mountain West, but definitely.

2096
01:34:54,280 --> 01:34:55,880
Speaker 2: To go over. The win total of seven and a half.

2097
01:34:56,439 --> 01:34:58,880
Speaker 3: Yeah you mass four winnable games by the way against

2098
01:34:58,880 --> 01:35:03,439
Speaker 3: teams off teams didn't play last fall. All right, second down?

2099
01:35:03,560 --> 01:35:06,120
Speaker 3: Favorite under? I just talked about it, so ready to

2100
01:35:06,120 --> 01:35:08,960
Speaker 3: go down. I'm going to Northern Illinois under four. Way

2101
01:35:09,000 --> 01:35:12,519
Speaker 3: too young. Not a Lombardi fan, NAC. I think over

2102
01:35:13,080 --> 01:35:16,000
Speaker 3: overall improved. I cannot see this team getting the five,

2103
01:35:16,000 --> 01:35:18,719
Speaker 3: and I make their win total closer to three under

2104
01:35:19,120 --> 01:35:20,280
Speaker 3: on the Huskies.

2105
01:35:20,400 --> 01:35:23,080
Speaker 1: Your favorite under, Yeah, I'm gonna go under on South Florida.

2106
01:35:23,520 --> 01:35:25,439
Speaker 1: I don't know where they get wins on this schedule,

2107
01:35:25,560 --> 01:35:27,640
Speaker 1: just Florida, A and M. Things are going in the

2108
01:35:27,640 --> 01:35:30,519
Speaker 1: wrong direction for Jeff Scott since he's left Clemson. This

2109
01:35:30,600 --> 01:35:32,960
Speaker 1: is a team that's outside the top one hundred offensive

2110
01:35:33,000 --> 01:35:36,760
Speaker 1: success rate almost dead last, and offensive finishing drives. They

2111
01:35:36,800 --> 01:35:39,960
Speaker 1: can't turn drives past the forty yard line into points.

2112
01:35:40,000 --> 01:35:41,800
Speaker 1: That wasn't a problem at Clemson, but it's a problem

2113
01:35:41,800 --> 01:35:45,280
Speaker 1: in South Florida. Jordan McCleod transfers out. Not that he

2114
01:35:45,360 --> 01:35:47,160
Speaker 1: was the answer at quarterback, but they don't have any

2115
01:35:47,160 --> 01:35:49,160
Speaker 1: answers at quarterback, and they don't have any answers in

2116
01:35:49,200 --> 01:35:51,640
Speaker 1: the trench. I'm not sure this team even gets to

2117
01:35:51,640 --> 01:35:52,200
Speaker 1: three wins.

2118
01:35:52,760 --> 01:35:57,559
Speaker 3: And finally, third down favorite future, I'll start Nevada five

2119
01:35:57,600 --> 01:35:59,479
Speaker 3: to one. I think they're the best team in the conference.

2120
01:36:00,160 --> 01:36:04,800
Speaker 3: Oh and they host San Jose State, which I think

2121
01:36:04,840 --> 01:36:06,679
Speaker 3: is ultimately going to decide the division.

2122
01:36:07,080 --> 01:36:08,960
Speaker 1: App State is definitely worth a play at four to

2123
01:36:09,040 --> 01:36:11,360
Speaker 1: one that I think is priced just a little bit

2124
01:36:11,400 --> 01:36:15,080
Speaker 1: too high, especially considering that they're mirror images of Coastal Carolina.

2125
01:36:15,200 --> 01:36:17,120
Speaker 1: Both of them have a heavy run attack, both of

2126
01:36:17,200 --> 01:36:19,680
Speaker 1: them know how to drink clock. App States defense is

2127
01:36:19,680 --> 01:36:22,400
Speaker 1: a little bit different against the rush, and we'll see

2128
01:36:22,439 --> 01:36:24,240
Speaker 1: what was a coin flip game last year with a

2129
01:36:24,280 --> 01:36:27,080
Speaker 1: turnover the decide of the outcome. Both these teams, Coastal

2130
01:36:27,080 --> 01:36:28,640
Speaker 1: and app should be priced the same, but they're not.

2131
01:36:28,800 --> 01:36:28,880
Speaker 4: So.

2132
01:36:28,920 --> 01:36:33,479
Speaker 1: Appalachian State four to one, and then let's go Western Kentucky. Baby,

2133
01:36:34,120 --> 01:36:38,720
Speaker 1: what number you can find, Bailey Zappi Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

2134
01:36:39,360 --> 01:36:40,759
Speaker 2: The offense from Houston Baptist.

2135
01:36:40,800 --> 01:36:42,280
Speaker 1: Go check out some of their box scores where they

2136
01:36:42,280 --> 01:36:44,920
Speaker 1: did against Texas Tech, against North Texas. You're going to

2137
01:36:45,000 --> 01:36:48,439
Speaker 1: integrate that where Tyson Hilton has already put in a

2138
01:36:48,479 --> 01:36:50,720
Speaker 1: stellar defense that has shown up and beat Power five

2139
01:36:50,760 --> 01:36:54,280
Speaker 1: teams like Arkansas. So you're going to get a legitimate,

2140
01:36:54,360 --> 01:36:57,800
Speaker 1: decent defense in Conference USA. You're going to integrate that

2141
01:36:57,880 --> 01:37:01,480
Speaker 1: with what is probably two explosive wide receivers and explosive

2142
01:37:01,520 --> 01:37:04,800
Speaker 1: cornerback and the coordinator from Houston Baptist coming in. I'm

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01:37:04,840 --> 01:37:07,760
Speaker 1: not sure Conference USA is ready for this team. So

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01:37:07,800 --> 01:37:11,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Western Kentucky. The buy price is down

2145
01:37:11,040 --> 01:37:12,760
Speaker 1: to seven to one. There's plenty and ten to ones

2146
01:37:12,760 --> 01:37:15,520
Speaker 1: out there, go goble them up. Down to seven to one.

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01:37:16,200 --> 01:37:16,920
Speaker 2: There you have it.

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01:37:17,000 --> 01:37:19,360
Speaker 3: That is the group of five at Independence College Football

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01:37:19,360 --> 01:37:21,519
Speaker 3: Betting Preview, as comprehensive as you will find out there.

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01:37:21,960 --> 01:37:25,240
Speaker 3: Shout out to Mike Calabreezy for joining us to talk

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01:37:25,320 --> 01:37:27,719
Speaker 3: some fun belt Thanks as always to Colin, and thanks

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01:37:28,000 --> 01:37:30,360
Speaker 3: to all of you for listening and supporting the podcast.

2153
01:37:31,200 --> 01:37:33,840
Speaker 3: Make sure that you subscribe, rate, review, tell friends on

2154
01:37:33,960 --> 01:37:37,880
Speaker 3: Enemy Big Bets on Campus podcast. It's our own college

2155
01:37:37,880 --> 01:37:39,960
Speaker 3: football stream now that we're able to have thanks to

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01:37:40,000 --> 01:37:44,320
Speaker 3: you the listeners. I'm off to key West right now,

2157
01:37:44,360 --> 01:37:46,640
Speaker 3: and then we'll be back with SEC episodes and then

2158
01:37:46,680 --> 01:37:48,840
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, it's gonna be week zero. And

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01:37:49,200 --> 01:37:50,760
Speaker 3: you know, if we thought this is a lot, go

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01:37:50,840 --> 01:37:52,680
Speaker 3: check out the written content on actioneverk dot com, the

2161
01:37:52,720 --> 01:37:53,400
Speaker 3: action overork Gap.

2162
01:37:53,560 --> 01:37:54,679
Speaker 2: Colin has a ton of stuff.

2163
01:37:54,720 --> 01:37:57,360
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have a ten thousand word piece that be

2164
01:37:57,360 --> 01:37:59,640
Speaker 3: out and probably when you're listening to this on all

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01:37:59,680 --> 01:38:02,679
Speaker 3: of my Favorite Features, and a ten thousand word piece

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01:38:02,720 --> 01:38:05,519
Speaker 3: on the my Mac Manifesto. So all that will be

2167
01:38:05,560 --> 01:38:07,560
Speaker 3: out in the app if you need the written form.

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01:38:07,800 --> 01:38:09,680
Speaker 3: Appreciate all of you listening and we'll catch you off

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01:38:10,000 --> 01:38:10,519
Speaker 3: next week.

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01:38:10,680 --> 01:38:11,800
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace out,