WEBVTT - Week 13 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 137) 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:16.599 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:19.840 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.880 --> 0:00:21.920 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:24.639 As we enter week thirteen, it is time to talk 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:29.520 about our best bets for the NFL for this coming weekend. 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:31.760 Here to do that with me is our good friend 0:00:31.800 --> 0:00:35.040 Ian McMillan from bet Sided. Find him on Twitter at 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:38.800 Ian mac betts. That's a I and Ian, thank you 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:39.880 for joining me. How you doing. 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:43.320 I'm doing fantastic, my friend. Right We're really in the 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:46.479 grind of the NFL season right now, so I'm excited. 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:49.720 Well, I was telling you before we started recording that 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:51.520 we're coming off a little bit of a rough week 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:55.000 here on this podcast. Again, I mostly blame you for that, 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:57.240 even though you were not on it, but I do 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:01.560 want to ask, how is the bet every single game 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.880 sort of you know, experience going for you? I think 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.480 it's been pretty good if when we last checked in 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:09.000 on it. 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:11.280 Yeah, it's still going well. I mean I got off 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:14.600 to a really hot start to the season. I've cooled 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:16.400 off a bit in recent weeks, but I haven't had 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:19.119 any like bad bad weeks. That are like really hurting 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.760 my record. So right now, betting on every single game 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:24.240 so far, I'm sitting out one hundred and four wins 0:01:24.319 --> 0:01:27.720 seventy five loss is one push. I'm up just over 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.920 twenty five units right now, so I can stay fucking 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:32.560 kind of stay even keel here for the rest of 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:32.920 the season. 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:35.240 I'll be happy. That's where you are right at this point. 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.040 You're almost like playing defense. You're just like, exactly, I 0:01:38.080 --> 0:01:40.240 don't need to crash it. I don't need to crash it. 0:01:40.280 --> 0:01:42.160 Just just sort of keep me right in the middle there, 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:45.080 and I'll be fine going forward. So excellent, all right, Well, 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.400 hopefully give out some winners here again. We're going to 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.480 do our top three best bets of the weekend again, 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:53.360 anything we want here. You can do money line if 0:01:53.400 --> 0:01:56.360 you want, but obviously spread and total bets. We will 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.800 then quickly run through the remaining games before we sign off, 0:01:59.880 --> 0:02:01.880 and before we get into it, of course, I will 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.360 remind you of the latest offer from our sponsor here 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.760 bet MGM. New customers can bet ten dollars and win 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:11.760 two hundred dollars if your team scores a touchdown. Players 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:13.680 who bet ten dollars again win two hundred dollars in 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:15.840 free bets. I's a team they've bet on scores a 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:19.440 touchdown when you use the code Juice one hundred that 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:28.120 is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:32.760 and Wyoming. Because I'm contractually obligated to run through last week, 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:34.679 so I will do so quickly. I'm gonna blame it 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:36.360 on the fact that it was like Thanksgiving, it was 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:40.560 earlier than usual recording, so whatever. But Pat Fitzmorris our 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:42.320 guests went one and two. He did hit on the 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:45.840 Lions plus three versus the Bears. Fun fact, he actually 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:47.920 thought he had taken the money line. He texted me 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.040 on Thanksgiving to say, oh man, what a bad bet 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:52.160 with the money line. But he actually had plus three 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.280 on the podcast, so he did get the win there. 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:56.280 But he did miss on the Raiders and the Cowboys 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:59.320 under fifty one and the Rams getting one against the Packers. 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.320 I went on and three, fantastic. I missed big on 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:04.440 these Steelers getting four and a half from the Bengals, 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:06.960 which I loved. The Texans Layington and alfter the Jets 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.959 and the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. I'm 0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.639 now eighteen and eighteen on the year, so let's get 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:14.880 it back again. I'll use the betting pros consensus lines 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:17.560 when we talk about it, but Ian you are our guests, 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:21.120 please begin with your favorite bet of the weekend. 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.480 Before I get dude, do you remember what my record 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:26.080 was last time I was on the show earlier in 0:03:26.080 --> 0:03:26.520 the season. 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:30.320 Off the top of my head, I don't, but I 0:03:30.320 --> 0:03:31.119 can look it up. 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.600 I think I hit Bengals money line back then, but 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:37.600 then I think I lost at least one. You definitely 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:39.280 Bengals against the Ravens, right. 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:42.440 You definitely hit the Bengals in the money line. You 0:03:42.480 --> 0:03:44.120 know what, I tell you what. I will look it up, 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:47.960 but definitely the Bengals are a frequent visitor on our 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.520 podcast here with a Wares. I remember one hundred percent. 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:55.720 You hit the Bengals money line for sure that week. 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.360 I think it was like plus two twenty or whatever 0:03:58.360 --> 0:03:59.720 it was. Hold on, I'm looking it up right now. 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:02.360 Let's think it was the way I mean, not that 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:03.240 I got it too much. 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:04.080 I got it. 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:05.360 Oh, you do you have it right now? 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:09.400 I do, all right? That's that. You took the Bengals 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:15.440 on the money line two thirty against the Ravens. You 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.799 had the Bucks laying twelve and a half against the Bears, 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:24.320 and you had the Patriots and they under under forty 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:24.880 two and a half. 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:28.360 Yeah, that one didn't hit. Don't remember the Buccaneers game 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:28.760 to be. 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:30.320 I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at it right now. 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:32.440 Hold on, I'm looking it up right now. No, you 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:34.760 went too and one. Yes, you hit. The Bucks did 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:36.479 cover the twelve and a half. I got it, have 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.760 my fingertips and you're fine. This is a great podcasting. Yeah, 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:41.400 you're fine. But you did miss on the Jets and 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:43.160 the Patriots under forty two and a half. So you're 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:47.000 two and one. That's that's great. So but you have 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:48.760 to go through another week. That's how we're all right. 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:51.360 No pressure. I don't unfortunately, don't have a money line 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:55.440 pick this week, but I'll I will get started. I do. Yeah, 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.760 they they scare me. I missed on a couple so 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:01.640 that they scare me a little bit now, but I 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:03.120 am on a big underdog, but I'm on them to 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:06.000 cover the spread. That is, the Bears to cover the 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.440 eight point spread. Against the Cardinals this week. I mean, 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:12.280 it looks like Kyler Murray's back, I believe, so everyone's 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:14.120 gonna kind of jump on the Cardinals right now. Best 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:16.960 record in the NFL. Kyler Murray when he was healthy 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:20.160 was looking like an NFL MVP. But let's not forget 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:24.039 the Cardinals can't stop the run thirtieth in opponent yards 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:25.800 per carry, So teams are able to run the ball 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:30.279 against this Cardinals team, and that's how the Bears get 0:05:30.360 --> 0:05:33.719 their yardage. Forty two point sixty five percent of the 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:36.640 Bears offensive yards come through the run game. That's the 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:39.320 second most in the NFL. And actually, the Bears have 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:41.359 been playing well recently. If you look at a stat 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:43.360 called net yards per play that I look at quite 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.440 a bit. Over their last three weeks, they're like third 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:47.880 or fourth in the NFL in that stat. So Bears 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:51.160 sneakily playing some half decent football recently. Their defense has 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.200 picked it up a little bit, and now they're getting 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.159 eight points, and I believe they're at home as well. 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.840 So my first bet of the week Bears plus eight 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:00.480 here against the Cardinals as an underdog. 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.400 So this is under the assumption that Kyler Murray is 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:05.719 going to play DeAndre Hopkins doesn't matter to you either 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:07.920 way if he plays, assuming that he plays, or still 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:09.520 thinking is out or irrelevant to you. 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:14.040 I'm assuming that he plays. But I mean if plus eight, 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.120 I mean I'll if it stays at that number, I'll 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:17.440 take Bears no matter who plays. 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.760 And so you are not concerned about the fact that 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:26.200 they squeaked out a win on Thanksgiving against the lowly Lions, then. 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:30.239 Not really. And I mean also there is a benefit, 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:32.080 a little bit of an extended by or a little 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:34.440 bit of a it is rest for them as well. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:38.040 But no, I doesn't concern me a little bit too much. 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.080 I mean, obviously, anytime I battle the Bears, because they're 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:42.400 just generally not a good football team, I'm a little 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.320 bit concerned. But the spread is over that magic number 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:47.160 of seven. I mean, if it was below a touchdown, 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.200 then maybe I'd leading Cardinals. But at eight points and 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:51.440 I believe they're home as well. 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:53.760 Yeah quite a bit. I am going to call you 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:55.800 a coward for not taking them on plus two eighty 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:57.360 on the money line, but that's fine. 0:06:57.200 --> 0:06:57.640 That's fine. 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.360 Yeah, Look, I don't have a great feel for it, honestly, 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.440 Like when I looked at the game. I just you know, 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:05.360 I don't know. I think what worries me a little 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:08.720 bit about the Cardinals really, like putting aside like anything 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:10.800 that you said there is just the fact that, like 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:14.119 we are how many weeks removed here from this Murray 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:17.280 ankle injury and even now they don't talk about it like, yeah, 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:19.800 he's he's good to go here. I mean we've been 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:22.560 game time calls for two weeks. Then off the bye, 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:24.840 you thought like, okay, this point, dude, it was an 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:27.840 ankle sprain, Like let's go. They're a completely different team 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.160 if he plays but is immobile as well. So it 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:34.120 is something where yeah, I wouldn't take the Cardinals in 0:07:34.160 --> 0:07:37.760 this game coming to Chicago, but I don't know, I 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.080 don't feel confident enough in Chicago, so to stay away 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.560 from me, but not gonna avoid it. You are definitely 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:43.960 going to go against me in a couple of these bets, 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:47.800 I guarantee, because even I when I think about some 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.520 of these bets, have to sort of double check how 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:52.320 I feel. And this is we're going with the other 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:53.800 team who's coming off a bye, but I'm going the 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.320 other way on it. Off the mini bi that is 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:58.400 the Lions. But I'm going the other way, and I'm 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:03.360 taking the Vikings to cover the seven points spread in Detroit. Now, 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.440 when you look at this game and you look at 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:08.640 sort of the trends that you know, might you know, 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:11.160 go in favor of one team or the other, everything 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:13.120 looks like it should favor the Lions in this game. 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:15.440 And I wholly admit that the Vikings are one and 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:17.320 eight against the spread in their last nine games as 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:20.000 a favorite. Three of their last four games have been 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:23.080 on the road, two of them in California. They play 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:25.840 a lot of close games no matter what. Every game 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:28.520 but two was decided by seven points or less. Half 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:30.920 of them have come down to the last play of 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:33.640 the game. So this is not a team that blows 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:36.640 anybody out. Part of it, I think is just that 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:38.600 they can't keep their foot on the gas, like they 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:40.480 jump out to leads and then they just sort of go, 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.160 you know whatever. These teams have already met the Vikings 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:45.760 where I think ten point favorites at one point in 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.080 that game, and they barely won nineteen seventeen. Again with 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:50.480 the last second field goal, Detroit is off the mini 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:53.000 by the Vikings are missing Dalvin Cook They've got a 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:55.360 ton of injuries on defense. Patrick Peterson's on the COVID 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:58.600 nineteen list. All of this says the Lions are going 0:08:58.640 --> 0:09:01.640 to be able to cover this seven point spread. But 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.040 I just refuse to buy it in this one, and 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:08.680 I think that this is going to just be a 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:11.640 Vikings route. Honestly, I think they're gonna win by double digits. 0:09:12.520 --> 0:09:15.080 I just don't think the Eagles, the Eagles partly the 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:19.160 Lions can hang right now with the Vikings. They are 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.679 Lions are obviously going to be missing their most explosive 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.360 playmaker in DeAndre Swift, and since then Campbell took over 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:29.560 the play calling, like an already stagnant offense has been 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.400 even more stagnant. I know they had Boil under center 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:35.280 at one point, but really there's no creativity. It's a 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:37.360 lot of sort of conservative stuff, and I just don't 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.960 think that's gonna be able to hang again with the Vikings. 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:43.000 And again, the Vikings are gonna be out without Dalvin Cook, right. 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:46.240 I think that's actually, in some weird way in going 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.720 to help them in this game, because as Alexander Madison 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.680 is an absolutely capable guy to fill in. But I 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:54.360 think it's going to force them to go to the 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:57.680 air a little bit more and to you know, highlight 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:02.200 what they actually do better as opposed to Mike Zimmer 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:04.679 wanting to run the ball constantly. With Dalvin Cook. They 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.120 are second in offensive past d v O A, the 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.720 Lions defensive DVOA against the past twenty eighth. It's just 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:13.160 a good matchup here for what they do well. Let 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:16.040 trustin Jefferson, let Adam Thield, let Kirk Cousins do their thing. 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.640 This is an absolute must win game here for the 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:21.800 Vikings as they try to stay in playoff contention. Obviously, 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:24.280 I think they come out here. I think it's the 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.360 rare Vikings statement game, and I think they cover the 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:34.040 touchdown spread go ahead. So you gotta be on the Lions. 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:37.480 Right, not only the Lions. They're my money line picking 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.360 I will say. I mean, I hate my bet. I 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:45.760 hate the lines money line bet. It's a stupid bet. 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.680 So every single point that you said about the Vikings 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.720 I agree with. They're all correct, the right point, the 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.160 only real I mean. First of all, I've bet the 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.600 lines money line I think already like three times a season, 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:57.240 So I'm. 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.880 Kind why not the Bears? Why not the Bears may 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.160 be your buddy line pick. Man, if you're on them, 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.320 you think they could win that out right? Yeah? 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:06.360 Well, I mean that's that's why I didn't want to 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:08.320 make Lions money line my one of my top free 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.280 picks here because I don't feel confident in it whatsoever. 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:12.920 I just wanted to take a deep shot. I will 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:16.840 say one counterpoint, and a reason why I do kind 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:18.640 of lean the Lions is that they have been running 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.000 the ball a ton the past three weeks. Dane Campbell 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.319 has just completely turned to the run, and the Vikings 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:25.120 right now are dead last in the NFL and Copony 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:27.880 yards per carry. So but I mean DeAndre Swift as 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:30.679 I believe, I believe is oh by Samaal Williams. Jamal 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:33.199 Williams is a is a pretty decent backup running back, 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:35.120 So that doesn't concern me too too much. But I 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.480 think the Lions will have some success on the ground 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:40.199 a little bit. But yeah, so I'm on the lines, 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.199 but really that's just that's just kind of my shot 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:43.920 in the dark. Hail Mary of the week. It's not 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.880 a it's not a bet. I feel confident. I could 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:49.160 certainly see this being like a twenty point Vikings win 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:49.600 for sure. 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.520 So I'm not kidding you. If you support any of 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:54.640 the three bets I'm making today, I'm going to be surprised. 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:56.839 I'm not kidding because I I guarantee you that the 0:11:56.920 --> 0:12:00.200 quote unquote sharp Side, which you know, I'm going going 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.880 to say that you're you know, you're a very experienced 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:05.080 better you're a smart guy. I'm going to say that 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:07.160 you're probably going to see a lot of these same 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:09.240 angles at the sharp Sea, which I see as well. 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:11.719 It's going to be on the Lions right like it 0:12:12.080 --> 0:12:14.080 just has to be, because a seven points spread against 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.920 the Vikings with everything that you see in this divisional 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:19.960 game with Detroit at home, it's not a game that 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.080 you think the lot the Vikings are going to be 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:25.400 able to cover really is. And this is really I'm 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.000 not kidding, man. I really think that the Dalvin Cook 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.120 injury actually helps them and it's going to force them 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:32.719 to go to the air more, which is going to 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:34.600 you know, I realize that you're right that the Lions 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:36.960 are going to run the ball NonStop, and that's really 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:39.720 what they've done. And Jamal Williams is an absolutely capable 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:42.040 running back. He's not de Andre Swift, but he's capable 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.480 of running back for sure. But I just think, Man, 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.560 even with all their injuries, even with how they struggle 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:48.480 against a run, I just think this is going to 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:52.040 be something where they are going to exploit them through 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:53.720 the air, put up a ton of points, get a 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:56.360 much needed victory. But I am not surprised. I'm maybe 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:58.080 a little surprised on the money line, but not at 0:12:58.080 --> 0:12:59.840 all surprised that you sort of like the other side 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.400 as I would expect. Really with this game, go to 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:03.480 your second pick. What do you have? 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.000 All right? Second pick? And this is my favorite bet 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.000 of the week and one of my favorite bets of 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:13.160 the entire NFL season, to be honest, and it's and 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.880 it is a public side though. I'm taking Raiders minus 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:18.600 two and a half here against Washington. A couple of 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.640 reasons why I like this bet quite a bit. Number One, 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:23.040 I think this is a very good cell high spot 0:13:23.080 --> 0:13:26.480 on Washington. So they've won three straight games, they're starting 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.680 to convince people that they're not a bad football team. 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:32.000 But even though they've won three straight games, over those games, 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.480 their minus is zero point nine to seven and net 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.400 yards per play so actually getting outplayed. But they're just 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.920 finding ways to win these games. And then you look 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.480 at just normal statistics, I mean, twentieth in offensive yards 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.080 per play the season, twenty ninth in opponent yards per play, 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.160 twenty eighth in opponent yards per past tempt. So like, 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.640 don't let the last three weeks fool you, Like this 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:53.120 Washington team is not a good football team, and then 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:56.240 the Raiders are the complete opposite. Not a very good record, 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:59.040 but netyards per play and just quick explanation of what 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.920 it is is is just your offensive yards per play 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:04.840 subtracted by the deep like the yards given up on 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.640 defense per play. In the NFL, the top teams and 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:11.160 net yards per play got the Bills, the Rams, the Bucks, 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:14.320 and fourth on that list is the Las Vegas Raiders. 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:17.400 So statistically they're very good. They have had issues both 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.640 on third down and in the red zone, on offense 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:21.640 and on defense. And that's kind of what's affecting the 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:24.120 record right now. But not only am I on the 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.680 Raiders to win big this weekend's Washington Last night, I 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.640 placed a bet on the Raiders to win the Super 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.040 Bowl at eighty one. 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.480 Oh god goodness. 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:34.800 At eighty to one. I had to put a little 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.520 sprinkle on it because just those those yards per play statistics, man, 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:41.600 they rank among those top contenders like the Bills, like 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:44.360 the Bucks. So if they can figure out their third 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:47.360 down woes and the red zone woes, they're statistically a 0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:49.200 very good team. So, I mean, I don't think the 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.760 Raiders are going to win the Super Bowl, but I 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:53.280 thought it was worth a little bit of a sprinkle 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.280 at eighty to one. And if there's ever a season 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:57.160 where like a six seed or seventh seed can go 0:14:57.200 --> 0:14:59.120 on and win, it's this year because of just the 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.520 amount of parody in the NFL this year. So Raiders 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:04.680 love them this week for sure. 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.240 In the AFC, there is no standout team, like without 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:09.520 a doubt, like we've seen it, right. The Titans obviously 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.120 have sort of come back down to earth, the you know, 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.320 the Ravens, you know, squeaking by basically in a lot 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.040 of their wins. You've got the Patriots and the Bills 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:18.880 this weekend. We'll talk about that game in a second. 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:22.480 And the Chiefs obviously have shown some mission and one 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.600 I'm not gonna argue with anything. I do like this 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:26.600 this bet though, even without by the way, I want 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.520 to confirm because almost certainly, Darren Waller is probably going 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.520 to be out here. He's obviously been a big piece 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.160 of their offense. You're still okay with it. You are 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.480 basically baking that in and assuming that you're good with 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:36.920 them still. 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:41.680 Yeah, I mean in general injuries, I I don't change 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:44.160 my opinion too much when when when guys road At 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:46.840 the end of the day, this is still professional football players. Sure, yeah, 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:48.640 I don't even to be honest, I can't even think 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:49.920 off the top of my head who their other tight 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:51.440 end is. But at the end of the. 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.920 Day, theos more he's very bad. By the way, he's 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:57.040 not bad. He's not a bad player. 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.160 Most of the time. In the NFL, except for maybe quarterback. 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.600 Most of the time, the backups certainly aren't as good 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:04.120 as a starter, especially I did a guy to the 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.680 level of Darren Waller, but they're still competent. They can 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:08.200 still go in there and make a couple of plays. 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:11.480 So yeah, no, it obviously i'd rather if Waller was playing, 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:13.320 but it doesn't. It's not gonna sway me away from 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:13.640 the bed. 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:16.760 For me, it's really offensive, like the offensive line injuries, 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.040 that's where I look at and that that's what really 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:20.920 makes me nervous, not as much as skill players. Yeah, 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.320 I like this one, and I really like what the 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.960 Raiders did against the Cowboys, and again they were missing 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:27.600 Darren Waller for most of that game. It was two things. 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.680 Number One, they they established Josh Jacobs a little more, 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:32.520 which they had gotten away from a little bit. And 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.520 it's not like Jacobs is some necessarily elite running back 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:37.120 at this point, but he can get things done and 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:39.160 they were kind of, you know, limiting him a little 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:41.960 bit for no reason. The second thing is again the 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.880 loss of Henry Ruggs, Like they stopped sort of spreading 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.000 the field a little bit with that deep threat, and 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.520 they were having trouble sort of finding the underneath routes 0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.240 and they finally got the Shan Jackson a little more 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:54.160 involved than you see it. It takes the top off the 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:56.440 defense that can't have safety help coming in on. These 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.320 guys like Hunter. Renfro had a monstrous game against Dallas. 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.400 So I think that's sort of the formula that we've 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.840 been waiting to see. You can pass all over Washington. 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:05.760 They're on a short week, but this is also by 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:09.280 the way, mini by and a short week here colliding 0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.159 right because the Raiders plan on Thanksgiving and Washington played 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.160 on Monday night. So yeah, I liked it. I look 0:17:15.240 --> 0:17:16.440 when we looked at it on Monday, it was a 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:18.640 game that I liked as well. And I think their 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:20.399 win total was six and a half for the Raiders, 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:22.399 so this one would go over it for the season. 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:24.359 Well on your way to winning a Super Bowl, be 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:27.280 my good man. So let's see about that, all right, man. 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:31.120 There are two teams that I have faded generally ian 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:33.520 and it has not worked out of late. And they 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.400 are the Patriots and they are the Bengals. And this 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:38.879 is the first of the two. Dan is drawing a 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.960