Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.
Speaker 1: As we enter week thirteen, it is time to talk
Speaker 1: about our best bets for the NFL for this coming weekend.
Speaker 1: Here to do that with me is our good friend
Speaker 1: Ian McMillan from bet Sided. Find him on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Ian mac betts. That's a I and Ian, thank you
Speaker 1: for joining me. How you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing fantastic, my friend. Right We're really in the
Speaker 2: grind of the NFL season right now, so I'm excited.
Speaker 1: Well, I was telling you before we started recording that
Speaker 1: we're coming off a little bit of a rough week
Speaker 1: here on this podcast. Again, I mostly blame you for that,
Speaker 1: even though you were not on it, but I do
Speaker 1: want to ask, how is the bet every single game
Speaker 1: sort of you know, experience going for you? I think
Speaker 1: it's been pretty good if when we last checked in
Speaker 1: on it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's still going well. I mean I got off
Speaker 2: to a really hot start to the season. I've cooled
Speaker 2: off a bit in recent weeks, but I haven't had
Speaker 2: any like bad bad weeks. That are like really hurting
Speaker 2: my record. So right now, betting on every single game
Speaker 2: so far, I'm sitting out one hundred and four wins
Speaker 2: seventy five loss is one push. I'm up just over
Speaker 2: twenty five units right now, so I can stay fucking
Speaker 2: kind of stay even keel here for the rest of
Speaker 2: the season.
Speaker 1: I'll be happy. That's where you are right at this point.
Speaker 1: You're almost like playing defense. You're just like, exactly, I
Speaker 1: don't need to crash it. I don't need to crash it.
Speaker 1: Just just sort of keep me right in the middle there,
Speaker 1: and I'll be fine going forward. So excellent, all right, Well,
Speaker 1: hopefully give out some winners here again. We're going to
Speaker 1: do our top three best bets of the weekend again,
Speaker 1: anything we want here. You can do money line if
Speaker 1: you want, but obviously spread and total bets. We will
Speaker 1: then quickly run through the remaining games before we sign off,
Speaker 1: and before we get into it, of course, I will
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Speaker 1: is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,
Speaker 1: and Wyoming. Because I'm contractually obligated to run through last week,
Speaker 1: so I will do so quickly. I'm gonna blame it
Speaker 1: on the fact that it was like Thanksgiving, it was
Speaker 1: earlier than usual recording, so whatever. But Pat Fitzmorris our
Speaker 1: guests went one and two. He did hit on the
Speaker 1: Lions plus three versus the Bears. Fun fact, he actually
Speaker 1: thought he had taken the money line. He texted me
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving to say, oh man, what a bad bet
Speaker 1: with the money line. But he actually had plus three
Speaker 1: on the podcast, so he did get the win there.
Speaker 1: But he did miss on the Raiders and the Cowboys
Speaker 1: under fifty one and the Rams getting one against the Packers.
Speaker 1: I went on and three, fantastic. I missed big on
Speaker 1: these Steelers getting four and a half from the Bengals,
Speaker 1: which I loved. The Texans Layington and alfter the Jets
Speaker 1: and the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. I'm
Speaker 1: now eighteen and eighteen on the year, so let's get
Speaker 1: it back again. I'll use the betting pros consensus lines
Speaker 1: when we talk about it, but Ian you are our guests,
Speaker 1: please begin with your favorite bet of the weekend.
Speaker 2: Before I get dude, do you remember what my record
Speaker 2: was last time I was on the show earlier in
Speaker 2: the season.
Speaker 1: Off the top of my head, I don't, but I
Speaker 1: can look it up.
Speaker 2: I think I hit Bengals money line back then, but
Speaker 2: then I think I lost at least one. You definitely
Speaker 2: Bengals against the Ravens, right.
Speaker 1: You definitely hit the Bengals in the money line. You
Speaker 1: know what, I tell you what. I will look it up,
Speaker 1: but definitely the Bengals are a frequent visitor on our
Speaker 1: podcast here with a Wares. I remember one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: You hit the Bengals money line for sure that week.
Speaker 1: I think it was like plus two twenty or whatever
Speaker 1: it was. Hold on, I'm looking it up right now.
Speaker 2: Let's think it was the way I mean, not that
Speaker 2: I got it too much.
Speaker 1: I got it.
Speaker 2: Oh, you do you have it right now?
Speaker 1: I do, all right? That's that. You took the Bengals
Speaker 1: on the money line two thirty against the Ravens. You
Speaker 1: had the Bucks laying twelve and a half against the Bears,
Speaker 1: and you had the Patriots and they under under forty
Speaker 1: two and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that one didn't hit. Don't remember the Buccaneers game
Speaker 2: to be.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at it right now.
Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm looking it up right now. No, you
Speaker 1: went too and one. Yes, you hit. The Bucks did
Speaker 1: cover the twelve and a half. I got it, have
Speaker 1: my fingertips and you're fine. This is a great podcasting. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're fine. But you did miss on the Jets and
Speaker 1: the Patriots under forty two and a half. So you're
Speaker 1: two and one. That's that's great. So but you have
Speaker 1: to go through another week. That's how we're all right.
Speaker 2: No pressure. I don't unfortunately, don't have a money line
Speaker 2: pick this week, but I'll I will get started. I do. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they they scare me. I missed on a couple so
Speaker 2: that they scare me a little bit now, but I
Speaker 2: am on a big underdog, but I'm on them to
Speaker 2: cover the spread. That is, the Bears to cover the
Speaker 2: eight point spread. Against the Cardinals this week. I mean,
Speaker 2: it looks like Kyler Murray's back, I believe, so everyone's
Speaker 2: gonna kind of jump on the Cardinals right now. Best
Speaker 2: record in the NFL. Kyler Murray when he was healthy
Speaker 2: was looking like an NFL MVP. But let's not forget
Speaker 2: the Cardinals can't stop the run thirtieth in opponent yards
Speaker 2: per carry, So teams are able to run the ball
Speaker 2: against this Cardinals team, and that's how the Bears get
Speaker 2: their yardage. Forty two point sixty five percent of the
Speaker 2: Bears offensive yards come through the run game. That's the
Speaker 2: second most in the NFL. And actually, the Bears have
Speaker 2: been playing well recently. If you look at a stat
Speaker 2: called net yards per play that I look at quite
Speaker 2: a bit. Over their last three weeks, they're like third
Speaker 2: or fourth in the NFL in that stat. So Bears
Speaker 2: sneakily playing some half decent football recently. Their defense has
Speaker 2: picked it up a little bit, and now they're getting
Speaker 2: eight points, and I believe they're at home as well.
Speaker 2: So my first bet of the week Bears plus eight
Speaker 2: here against the Cardinals as an underdog.
Speaker 1: So this is under the assumption that Kyler Murray is
Speaker 1: going to play DeAndre Hopkins doesn't matter to you either
Speaker 1: way if he plays, assuming that he plays, or still
Speaker 1: thinking is out or irrelevant to you.
Speaker 2: I'm assuming that he plays. But I mean if plus eight,
Speaker 2: I mean I'll if it stays at that number, I'll
Speaker 2: take Bears no matter who plays.
Speaker 1: And so you are not concerned about the fact that
Speaker 1: they squeaked out a win on Thanksgiving against the lowly Lions, then.
Speaker 2: Not really. And I mean also there is a benefit,
Speaker 2: a little bit of an extended by or a little
Speaker 2: bit of a it is rest for them as well.
Speaker 2: But no, I doesn't concern me a little bit too much.
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, anytime I battle the Bears, because they're
Speaker 2: just generally not a good football team, I'm a little
Speaker 2: bit concerned. But the spread is over that magic number
Speaker 2: of seven. I mean, if it was below a touchdown,
Speaker 2: then maybe I'd leading Cardinals. But at eight points and
Speaker 2: I believe they're home as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah quite a bit. I am going to call you
Speaker 1: a coward for not taking them on plus two eighty
Speaker 1: on the money line, but that's fine.
Speaker 2: That's fine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, I don't have a great feel for it, honestly,
Speaker 1: Like when I looked at the game. I just you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think what worries me a little
Speaker 1: bit about the Cardinals really, like putting aside like anything
Speaker 1: that you said there is just the fact that, like
Speaker 1: we are how many weeks removed here from this Murray
Speaker 1: ankle injury and even now they don't talk about it like, yeah,
Speaker 1: he's he's good to go here. I mean we've been
Speaker 1: game time calls for two weeks. Then off the bye,
Speaker 1: you thought like, okay, this point, dude, it was an
Speaker 1: ankle sprain, Like let's go. They're a completely different team
Speaker 1: if he plays but is immobile as well. So it
Speaker 1: is something where yeah, I wouldn't take the Cardinals in
Speaker 1: this game coming to Chicago, but I don't know, I
Speaker 1: don't feel confident enough in Chicago, so to stay away
Speaker 1: from me, but not gonna avoid it. You are definitely
Speaker 1: going to go against me in a couple of these bets,
Speaker 1: I guarantee, because even I when I think about some
Speaker 1: of these bets, have to sort of double check how
Speaker 1: I feel. And this is we're going with the other
Speaker 1: team who's coming off a bye, but I'm going the
Speaker 1: other way on it. Off the mini bi that is
Speaker 1: the Lions. But I'm going the other way, and I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Vikings to cover the seven points spread in Detroit. Now,
Speaker 1: when you look at this game and you look at
Speaker 1: sort of the trends that you know, might you know,
Speaker 1: go in favor of one team or the other, everything
Speaker 1: looks like it should favor the Lions in this game.
Speaker 1: And I wholly admit that the Vikings are one and
Speaker 1: eight against the spread in their last nine games as
Speaker 1: a favorite. Three of their last four games have been
Speaker 1: on the road, two of them in California. They play
Speaker 1: a lot of close games no matter what. Every game
Speaker 1: but two was decided by seven points or less. Half
Speaker 1: of them have come down to the last play of
Speaker 1: the game. So this is not a team that blows
Speaker 1: anybody out. Part of it, I think is just that
Speaker 1: they can't keep their foot on the gas, like they
Speaker 1: jump out to leads and then they just sort of go,
Speaker 1: you know whatever. These teams have already met the Vikings
Speaker 1: where I think ten point favorites at one point in
Speaker 1: that game, and they barely won nineteen seventeen. Again with
Speaker 1: the last second field goal, Detroit is off the mini
Speaker 1: by the Vikings are missing Dalvin Cook They've got a
Speaker 1: ton of injuries on defense. Patrick Peterson's on the COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen list. All of this says the Lions are going
Speaker 1: to be able to cover this seven point spread. But
Speaker 1: I just refuse to buy it in this one, and
Speaker 1: I think that this is going to just be a
Speaker 1: Vikings route. Honestly, I think they're gonna win by double digits.
Speaker 1: I just don't think the Eagles, the Eagles partly the
Speaker 1: Lions can hang right now with the Vikings. They are
Speaker 1: Lions are obviously going to be missing their most explosive
Speaker 1: playmaker in DeAndre Swift, and since then Campbell took over
Speaker 1: the play calling, like an already stagnant offense has been
Speaker 1: even more stagnant. I know they had Boil under center
Speaker 1: at one point, but really there's no creativity. It's a
Speaker 1: lot of sort of conservative stuff, and I just don't
Speaker 1: think that's gonna be able to hang again with the Vikings.
Speaker 1: And again, the Vikings are gonna be out without Dalvin Cook, right.
Speaker 1: I think that's actually, in some weird way in going
Speaker 1: to help them in this game, because as Alexander Madison
Speaker 1: is an absolutely capable guy to fill in. But I
Speaker 1: think it's going to force them to go to the
Speaker 1: air a little bit more and to you know, highlight
Speaker 1: what they actually do better as opposed to Mike Zimmer
Speaker 1: wanting to run the ball constantly. With Dalvin Cook. They
Speaker 1: are second in offensive past d v O A, the
Speaker 1: Lions defensive DVOA against the past twenty eighth. It's just
Speaker 1: a good matchup here for what they do well. Let
Speaker 1: trustin Jefferson, let Adam Thield, let Kirk Cousins do their thing.
Speaker 1: This is an absolute must win game here for the
Speaker 1: Vikings as they try to stay in playoff contention. Obviously,
Speaker 1: I think they come out here. I think it's the
Speaker 1: rare Vikings statement game, and I think they cover the
Speaker 1: touchdown spread go ahead. So you gotta be on the Lions.
Speaker 2: Right, not only the Lions. They're my money line picking
Speaker 2: I will say. I mean, I hate my bet. I
Speaker 2: hate the lines money line bet. It's a stupid bet.
Speaker 2: So every single point that you said about the Vikings
Speaker 2: I agree with. They're all correct, the right point, the
Speaker 2: only real I mean. First of all, I've bet the
Speaker 2: lines money line I think already like three times a season,
Speaker 2: So I'm.
Speaker 1: Kind why not the Bears? Why not the Bears may
Speaker 1: be your buddy line pick. Man, if you're on them,
Speaker 1: you think they could win that out right? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean that's that's why I didn't want to
Speaker 2: make Lions money line my one of my top free
Speaker 2: picks here because I don't feel confident in it whatsoever.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to take a deep shot. I will
Speaker 2: say one counterpoint, and a reason why I do kind
Speaker 2: of lean the Lions is that they have been running
Speaker 2: the ball a ton the past three weeks. Dane Campbell
Speaker 2: has just completely turned to the run, and the Vikings
Speaker 2: right now are dead last in the NFL and Copony
Speaker 2: yards per carry. So but I mean DeAndre Swift as
Speaker 2: I believe, I believe is oh by Samaal Williams. Jamal
Speaker 2: Williams is a is a pretty decent backup running back,
Speaker 2: So that doesn't concern me too too much. But I
Speaker 2: think the Lions will have some success on the ground
Speaker 2: a little bit. But yeah, so I'm on the lines,
Speaker 2: but really that's just that's just kind of my shot
Speaker 2: in the dark. Hail Mary of the week. It's not
Speaker 2: a it's not a bet. I feel confident. I could
Speaker 2: certainly see this being like a twenty point Vikings win
Speaker 2: for sure.
Speaker 1: So I'm not kidding you. If you support any of
Speaker 1: the three bets I'm making today, I'm going to be surprised.
Speaker 1: I'm not kidding because I I guarantee you that the
Speaker 1: quote unquote sharp Side, which you know, I'm going going
Speaker 1: to say that you're you know, you're a very experienced
Speaker 1: better you're a smart guy. I'm going to say that
Speaker 1: you're probably going to see a lot of these same
Speaker 1: angles at the sharp Sea, which I see as well.
Speaker 1: It's going to be on the Lions right like it
Speaker 1: just has to be, because a seven points spread against
Speaker 1: the Vikings with everything that you see in this divisional
Speaker 1: game with Detroit at home, it's not a game that
Speaker 1: you think the lot the Vikings are going to be
Speaker 1: able to cover really is. And this is really I'm
Speaker 1: not kidding, man. I really think that the Dalvin Cook
Speaker 1: injury actually helps them and it's going to force them
Speaker 1: to go to the air more, which is going to
Speaker 1: you know, I realize that you're right that the Lions
Speaker 1: are going to run the ball NonStop, and that's really
Speaker 1: what they've done. And Jamal Williams is an absolutely capable
Speaker 1: running back. He's not de Andre Swift, but he's capable
Speaker 1: of running back for sure. But I just think, Man,
Speaker 1: even with all their injuries, even with how they struggle
Speaker 1: against a run, I just think this is going to
Speaker 1: be something where they are going to exploit them through
Speaker 1: the air, put up a ton of points, get a
Speaker 1: much needed victory. But I am not surprised. I'm maybe
Speaker 1: a little surprised on the money line, but not at
Speaker 1: all surprised that you sort of like the other side
Speaker 1: as I would expect. Really with this game, go to
Speaker 1: your second pick. What do you have?
Speaker 2: All right? Second pick? And this is my favorite bet
Speaker 2: of the week and one of my favorite bets of
Speaker 2: the entire NFL season, to be honest, and it's and
Speaker 2: it is a public side though. I'm taking Raiders minus
Speaker 2: two and a half here against Washington. A couple of
Speaker 2: reasons why I like this bet quite a bit. Number One,
Speaker 2: I think this is a very good cell high spot
Speaker 2: on Washington. So they've won three straight games, they're starting
Speaker 2: to convince people that they're not a bad football team.
Speaker 2: But even though they've won three straight games, over those games,
Speaker 2: their minus is zero point nine to seven and net
Speaker 2: yards per play so actually getting outplayed. But they're just
Speaker 2: finding ways to win these games. And then you look
Speaker 2: at just normal statistics, I mean, twentieth in offensive yards
Speaker 2: per play the season, twenty ninth in opponent yards per play,
Speaker 2: twenty eighth in opponent yards per past tempt. So like,
Speaker 2: don't let the last three weeks fool you, Like this
Speaker 2: Washington team is not a good football team, and then
Speaker 2: the Raiders are the complete opposite. Not a very good record,
Speaker 2: but netyards per play and just quick explanation of what
Speaker 2: it is is is just your offensive yards per play
Speaker 2: subtracted by the deep like the yards given up on
Speaker 2: defense per play. In the NFL, the top teams and
Speaker 2: net yards per play got the Bills, the Rams, the Bucks,
Speaker 2: and fourth on that list is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 2: So statistically they're very good. They have had issues both
Speaker 2: on third down and in the red zone, on offense
Speaker 2: and on defense. And that's kind of what's affecting the
Speaker 2: record right now. But not only am I on the
Speaker 2: Raiders to win big this weekend's Washington Last night, I
Speaker 2: placed a bet on the Raiders to win the Super
Speaker 2: Bowl at eighty one.
Speaker 1: Oh god goodness.
Speaker 2: At eighty to one. I had to put a little
Speaker 2: sprinkle on it because just those those yards per play statistics, man,
Speaker 2: they rank among those top contenders like the Bills, like
Speaker 2: the Bucks. So if they can figure out their third
Speaker 2: down woes and the red zone woes, they're statistically a
Speaker 2: very good team. So, I mean, I don't think the
Speaker 2: Raiders are going to win the Super Bowl, but I
Speaker 2: thought it was worth a little bit of a sprinkle
Speaker 2: at eighty to one. And if there's ever a season
Speaker 2: where like a six seed or seventh seed can go
Speaker 2: on and win, it's this year because of just the
Speaker 2: amount of parody in the NFL this year. So Raiders
Speaker 2: love them this week for sure.
Speaker 1: In the AFC, there is no standout team, like without
Speaker 1: a doubt, like we've seen it, right. The Titans obviously
Speaker 1: have sort of come back down to earth, the you know,
Speaker 1: the Ravens, you know, squeaking by basically in a lot
Speaker 1: of their wins. You've got the Patriots and the Bills
Speaker 1: this weekend. We'll talk about that game in a second.
Speaker 1: And the Chiefs obviously have shown some mission and one
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna argue with anything. I do like this
Speaker 1: this bet though, even without by the way, I want
Speaker 1: to confirm because almost certainly, Darren Waller is probably going
Speaker 1: to be out here. He's obviously been a big piece
Speaker 1: of their offense. You're still okay with it. You are
Speaker 1: basically baking that in and assuming that you're good with
Speaker 1: them still.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean in general injuries, I I don't change
Speaker 2: my opinion too much when when when guys road At
Speaker 2: the end of the day, this is still professional football players. Sure, yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't even to be honest, I can't even think
Speaker 2: off the top of my head who their other tight
Speaker 2: end is. But at the end of the.
Speaker 1: Day, theos more he's very bad. By the way, he's
Speaker 1: not bad. He's not a bad player.
Speaker 2: Most of the time. In the NFL, except for maybe quarterback.
Speaker 2: Most of the time, the backups certainly aren't as good
Speaker 2: as a starter, especially I did a guy to the
Speaker 2: level of Darren Waller, but they're still competent. They can
Speaker 2: still go in there and make a couple of plays.
Speaker 2: So yeah, no, it obviously i'd rather if Waller was playing,
Speaker 2: but it doesn't. It's not gonna sway me away from
Speaker 2: the bed.
Speaker 1: For me, it's really offensive, like the offensive line injuries,
Speaker 1: that's where I look at and that that's what really
Speaker 1: makes me nervous, not as much as skill players. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I like this one, and I really like what the
Speaker 1: Raiders did against the Cowboys, and again they were missing
Speaker 1: Darren Waller for most of that game. It was two things.
Speaker 1: Number One, they they established Josh Jacobs a little more,
Speaker 1: which they had gotten away from a little bit. And
Speaker 1: it's not like Jacobs is some necessarily elite running back
Speaker 1: at this point, but he can get things done and
Speaker 1: they were kind of, you know, limiting him a little
Speaker 1: bit for no reason. The second thing is again the
Speaker 1: loss of Henry Ruggs, Like they stopped sort of spreading
Speaker 1: the field a little bit with that deep threat, and
Speaker 1: they were having trouble sort of finding the underneath routes
Speaker 1: and they finally got the Shan Jackson a little more
Speaker 1: involved than you see it. It takes the top off the
Speaker 1: defense that can't have safety help coming in on. These
Speaker 1: guys like Hunter. Renfro had a monstrous game against Dallas.
Speaker 1: So I think that's sort of the formula that we've
Speaker 1: been waiting to see. You can pass all over Washington.
Speaker 1: They're on a short week, but this is also by
Speaker 1: the way, mini by and a short week here colliding
Speaker 1: right because the Raiders plan on Thanksgiving and Washington played
Speaker 1: on Monday night. So yeah, I liked it. I look
Speaker 1: when we looked at it on Monday, it was a
Speaker 1: game that I liked as well. And I think their
Speaker 1: win total was six and a half for the Raiders,
Speaker 1: so this one would go over it for the season.
Speaker 1: Well on your way to winning a Super Bowl, be
Speaker 1: my good man. So let's see about that, all right, man.
Speaker 1: There are two teams that I have faded generally ian
Speaker 1: and it has not worked out of late. And they
Speaker 1: are the Patriots and they are the Bengals. And this
Speaker 1: is the first of the two. Dan is drawing a
Speaker 1: line in the sand games and that I'm taking the
Speaker 1: Bills laying the field goal at home on Monday night
Speaker 1: against the Patriots. I continue to think the Patriots are
Speaker 1: a little bit overrated. The defense is legitimate. I'm not
Speaker 1: taking anything away from it. I want to make that clear.
Speaker 1: One of the best defenses in the NFL. I agree.
Speaker 1: It's really the offense that I don't buy. They have
Speaker 1: six wins and in a row, the only close one
Speaker 1: was the Chargers. They run the ball well. Mac Dones
Speaker 1: is executing that offense to perfection. But I went back
Speaker 1: and I watched that game against the Titans. I'd listened
Speaker 1: to this part in the radio. I went back and
Speaker 1: I watched it, and there's a period in that game
Speaker 1: last week against the Titans where Mac Jones looks completely
Speaker 1: lost two drives, only that three drives, and you know,
Speaker 1: then they were able to run the ball a little
Speaker 1: bit better and change things up where when the game
Speaker 1: was put on him, when he had to do some
Speaker 1: passing coming up, he looked lost a little bit as
Speaker 1: they changed their scheme and they got a little pressure
Speaker 1: on him, And I think that's what we've got. And
Speaker 1: now we are going to Buffalo on a nationally televised
Speaker 1: game in a very tough place to play, particularly now
Speaker 1: as we are into December where it's going to be cold.
Speaker 1: Rain right now is in the forecast, but either way,
Speaker 1: that is a really really tough place to play. And Jones,
Speaker 1: like pretty much every quarterback, but certainly rookie quarterbacks, struggles
Speaker 1: against pressure. A seventy three point eight percent completion rate
Speaker 1: when not under pressure seven point nine yards per attempt,
Speaker 1: fifty nine point three percent completion rate went under pressure
Speaker 1: six point two yards per attempt. The Bills get pressure
Speaker 1: thirty point two percent of the time. That is the
Speaker 1: highest pressure rate in the NFL. They don't blitz a
Speaker 1: ton either, so they're able to do that without the blitz.
Speaker 1: And the Patriots survive on the run game that is
Speaker 1: what sets up their pass But the Bills are one
Speaker 1: of the best run defenses in the league. And to
Speaker 1: win this game, to be able to put up points,
Speaker 1: I feel like it's gonna have to go on mac Jones,
Speaker 1: and I just don't think he's going to really be
Speaker 1: able to do that in this environment. And again, they
Speaker 1: lost to fore Deevius White. But if there's a team
Speaker 1: where losing Trudevius White doesn't hurt you quite as much
Speaker 1: against it is a Patriots who don't have that prototypical
Speaker 1: number one wide receiver. Offensively, the Bills have been struggling,
Speaker 1: I fully admit that, and I don't expect them to
Speaker 1: sort of run roughshot over the Patriots here. But if
Speaker 1: they do have a weakness, right, it's the run. That's
Speaker 1: not usually how the Bills sort of attack. But I
Speaker 1: do think that given the fact that the Bills are
Speaker 1: off the mini by here again, they have a little
Speaker 1: extra time to prep for this I think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot of Josh Allen running here as he
Speaker 1: looks to avoid chances. And I think Stevan Diggs can
Speaker 1: beat any quarterback. We saw the brilliant move that you've
Speaker 1: seen all over and over and over against marsha On Latimore.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to move the ball,
Speaker 1: put up enough points. And again it's three points or
Speaker 1: last man, You're really just basically saying, I think they're
Speaker 1: going to win this game. So I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: win this game. So I'm taking the Bills at home
Speaker 1: on Monday night to reclaim the AFC East here in
Speaker 1: the divisional match up laying three.
Speaker 2: You know, Dan, you said that you assumed that I
Speaker 2: was going to be on the opposite side of all
Speaker 2: your picks. I think I might be with you on
Speaker 2: all these picks because I'm on the Bills too. Really, yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm not always. I mean, I think there's some sports
Speaker 2: betters out there who just kind of like follow the
Speaker 2: sharp side. I'm certainly not one of those guys. I'm
Speaker 2: a very statistic space handicapper sometimes. I mean a good
Speaker 2: portion of the time I'm on the public side, and
Speaker 2: statistically the Bills. I keep citing that net yards per play.
Speaker 2: That's my favorite stat to look at, especially once we
Speaker 2: get halfway through the NFL season and the Bills are
Speaker 2: first in the NFL by mile. So that's a good
Speaker 2: sign for the Bills. And the other thing that I
Speaker 2: like to do betting, especially on the NFL, is sell
Speaker 2: high on t teams, buy low on other teams. And
Speaker 2: there's no team to sell at a higher mark right
Speaker 2: now than the Patriots. Six straight wins, six straight covers.
Speaker 2: Everyone's just starting to talk about how their super Bowl contenders.
Speaker 2: They're certainly a playoff team for sure. As you mentioned,
Speaker 2: their defense is very very good. I just don't trust
Speaker 2: that a rookie quarterback is going to be able to
Speaker 2: lead the lead this team to a super Bowl, be
Speaker 2: able to lead this team against teams like the Bills,
Speaker 2: very good teams in the NFL, especially in you know,
Speaker 2: bright light situations. So I like the Bills quite a bit. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I statistically, and I'm just gonna sell high on the Patriots.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I'm on the Bills.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been. I've been trying to sell high in
Speaker 1: the Patriots for a while here, but really, I mean
Speaker 1: look again, I want to make it clear just his
Speaker 1: Pats fans, And again I live in New England. I'm
Speaker 1: quite familiar with you know, they get pretty angry, including
Speaker 1: my in laws, that I think the Patriots are a
Speaker 1: very good team. They're going to make the playoffs. They
Speaker 1: are not as good as the Bills. Like there, you
Speaker 1: can't have Mac Jones is a very very capable quarterback
Speaker 1: right now. I've been impressed by what I've seen from
Speaker 1: him in the NFL. But he is doing well because
Speaker 1: of their and because of their system, because they run
Speaker 1: the ball so well, because they don't take chances. I
Speaker 1: think in this game he's going to need to take chances.
Speaker 1: We have seen him have plenty of rookie moments. And
Speaker 1: again in Buffalo against a team like the Bills with
Speaker 1: that defense, I just don't see it. And we are
Speaker 1: in December, like it is different. Also playing in Buffalo
Speaker 1: on a Sunday game at one o'clock in September as
Speaker 1: opposed to a Monday night game in December. In Buffalo,
Speaker 1: it's a tough place to play. Used to go to school.
Speaker 1: There's plenty of Bills games. Love the fans. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna win this one. I think they're gonna win
Speaker 1: a big so I will take them. Glad to have
Speaker 1: you on my side. Third pick for you, Gitzar, what
Speaker 1: do you have?
Speaker 2: So I'm going with a total, So a little bit
Speaker 2: of everything here. I gave on underdog, gave out a favorite.
Speaker 2: Looking at a total. Now I'm going Raven Steelers and
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go over forty four. At least that's what
Speaker 2: it was that last night. I haven't checked if the
Speaker 2: line is of up beatda all this morning, But when
Speaker 2: you think of the Ravens and the Steelers, like your
Speaker 2: mind just goes to the fact that they have two
Speaker 2: of the best defenses in the league. Because it's been
Speaker 2: that case for like two decades now. It's usually almost
Speaker 2: every single season in the top five defenses, you'll find
Speaker 2: the Steelers in the Ravens. But that's not the cases
Speaker 2: here at all. As a matter of fact, both of
Speaker 2: them are like near the bottom and most defensive statistics.
Speaker 2: Steelers are twenty fifth and opponent yards per play the
Speaker 2: Ravens are thirtieth. The Steelers can't stop the run. They're
Speaker 2: thirty first in pony yards per carry, and the Ravens
Speaker 2: can't stop the past thirtieth in opponent yards per pass attempt,
Speaker 2: So you got to kind of wipe your mind of
Speaker 2: kind of just like what we've assumed would be the
Speaker 2: case a year in and year out in the NFL. These
Speaker 2: defenses aren't good, but yet the totals only set up
Speaker 2: forty four. Now, I know the Ravens haven't scored a
Speaker 2: ton of points recently, the Steelers offense has been bad,
Speaker 2: but for total this low, I wouldn't want to bet
Speaker 2: on the under when both defenses are like bottom five
Speaker 2: and a lot of major statistics. So I think this
Speaker 2: total is way too low. The over forty four Raven
Speaker 2: Steelers I think, I think we're going to reach that here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on this one for sure. And again,
Speaker 1: I do think that the defensive reputations sort of stick
Speaker 1: in the public's mind with this sort of thing, when
Speaker 1: really both defense are entirely exploitable here and again, I believe,
Speaker 1: I hope I'm not making this up that TJ. Watt
Speaker 1: was placed on the COVID nineteen list. I think I
Speaker 1: could be now making that up as I say that,
Speaker 1: I'm sort of having a panic attack. Doesn't matter, but
Speaker 1: you can look it up but I think he was
Speaker 1: placed on the COVID list. But that's a huge loss
Speaker 1: assuming that he's out. Obviously, I don't know whether or
Speaker 1: not Joe Hayden, Am I right? Am? I right with it?
Speaker 1: Was he on there? Were you looking it up? Yeah?
Speaker 2: You're correct. And Steelers linebacker Robert Spiellen is he a starter?
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, they just added another linebacker to the COVID list.
Speaker 1: But by the way, they obviously I mean Ben was
Speaker 1: on the COVID list, like they obviously have some sort
Speaker 1: of COVID issues that they got it. What is a
Speaker 1: huge deal though, obviously, and maybe Joe Hayden comes back here.
Speaker 1: But either way, you just saw the Bengals just completely
Speaker 1: decimate them. But I do think that the Steelers are
Speaker 1: gonna be able to put up points as well against
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So I'm with you on this one. I
Speaker 1: like it as well. I'm going to continue to fade
Speaker 1: the Bengals. And what I really would like Ian is
Speaker 1: after I do this is for you to explain to
Speaker 1: me how you feel about the Bengals, Okay, because I
Speaker 1: haven't always faded them, and when I have sometimes it's
Speaker 1: worked out, Like the game against Cleveland. But I faded
Speaker 1: them against Pittsburgh, and maybe that was more of a
Speaker 1: raw ra spot that I like Pittsburgh and whatever, but
Speaker 1: I'm going to fade them here. I'm gonna take the
Speaker 1: Chargers getting three against the Bengals in Cincinnati. This is
Speaker 1: again you mentioned sort of the Bilo Sell High. I
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are a very classic sort of cell
Speaker 1: high team right now. Back to back wins, monstrous performance here.
Speaker 1: They won with these against Pittsburgh. Chargers just lost to Denver.
Speaker 1: So that's usually just sort of the natural spot that
Speaker 1: I feel like, I generally like piques my interest a
Speaker 1: little bit when I look at teams and I think
Speaker 1: of where the right spot is to back a team
Speaker 1: versus faded team. That's where we are here. And really
Speaker 1: these two teams are just pretty even. The Chargers are
Speaker 1: sixteenth in overall DVOA, the Bengals are eighteenth. They're very
Speaker 1: similarly matched teams. There are some things to worry about
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. Obviously, their run defense is horrific, and
Speaker 1: we just we've seen now the Bengals lean into Joe
Speaker 1: Mixon here. We saw it in this most recent game.
Speaker 1: For sure. I think the Chargers, though, are going to
Speaker 1: get Linval Joseph back here. He's on the COVID list.
Speaker 1: He's you know, he's eligible to come off, but he
Speaker 1: wasn't vaccinated, so he should be able to come off
Speaker 1: still at this point a couple of days, but I
Speaker 1: think maybe today might be the day where he's able
Speaker 1: to come off. Assuming that he does, which I am
Speaker 1: assuming right now. It makes a huge difference for their
Speaker 1: run defense. Again, their run Devens is bad, but a
Speaker 1: lot of it has just been because they haven't been
Speaker 1: healthy that much. So Joseph makes a huge difference in
Speaker 1: that run game. So West Coast team is traveling east.
Speaker 1: I get all that, but this is a game the
Speaker 1: Chargers have to win. They absolutely have to And I
Speaker 1: know the Cincinnati deve it's just looked awesome against Ben,
Speaker 1: But that's a different story here. When you have that
Speaker 1: offensive line and you have a quarterback like Ben who's immobile,
Speaker 1: who just gets the ball out, charges are much better offensively.
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert is mobile, Cincinnati is susceptible to like the
Speaker 1: big plays down the field, which of course Herbert can do.
Speaker 1: And you know, whatever they've done against opposing passers when
Speaker 1: you look at the opposing passers that they've faced. Ian Like,
Speaker 1: they've faced a pretty easy slate of you know, opposing
Speaker 1: quarterbacks here, so the fact that they've generally held like
Speaker 1: passing games in check not crazy, but generally I think
Speaker 1: it's a little overrated based on who they've got. It's
Speaker 1: really just a fade of the Bengals here in a
Speaker 1: spot where again selling them high buy and low on
Speaker 1: the charters, I think they're overvalued in the market because
Speaker 1: of recency bias. So I'm fading the Bengals for like
Speaker 1: the eighth straight week here and hopefully things turn around.
Speaker 1: All right, what do we got fading or following?
Speaker 2: No, I like it. I agree with almost every point
Speaker 2: that you made. Now Now in my so, I am
Speaker 2: on the charters. But this is a game like a
Speaker 2: true coin flip game for me, so like I'm betting
Speaker 2: on every single NFL game. If I wasn't, I would
Speaker 2: probably just stay away from this game because, like you said, statistically,
Speaker 2: they're right next to each other in a lot of
Speaker 2: major stats that I look at. But anytime there's a
Speaker 2: coin flip game, I'll just go ahead and take the
Speaker 2: team getting the points. So that's why I'm on the
Speaker 2: Chargers here. They do have slight advantages in like the
Speaker 2: yards per play categories, but the Chargers defense bad on
Speaker 2: third down defense and bad in the red zone as well,
Speaker 2: and that's kind of where the Bengals have their advantage.
Speaker 2: So depending on what stat you look at, some favor
Speaker 2: the Bengals, favor the Chargers. So true, coin flip game,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, I like your point about we're selling
Speaker 2: high a little bit on the Bengals buying a little
Speaker 2: bit low on the Chargers. I like that as well,
Speaker 2: and that's another reason why I'm on the charters here,
Speaker 2: So coin flip, I don't love the game any literally,
Speaker 2: anything could happen in this game and I wouldn't be shocked.
Speaker 2: But in these kinds of games, I like just taking
Speaker 2: the team with the points and hoping for the best, right.
Speaker 1: I like taking the underdog, obviously in these types of
Speaker 1: games where you really just have too evenly matched teams,
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's a huge home field advantage
Speaker 1: or anything like that, but yeah, I really like I
Speaker 1: know bilos sell high is pretty simplistic, but more often
Speaker 1: than not, that's a place where you see an edge
Speaker 1: here where the public wants to back obviously, teams that
Speaker 1: are riding high. So I would love to very quickly
Speaker 1: just go through the remaining spread see how you feel
Speaker 1: about them in a very quick, rapid fire fashion. But
Speaker 1: let me recap it. You're taking the Bears getting eight
Speaker 1: from the Cardinals, the Raiders laying two and a half
Speaker 1: against the Washington football team, and the Ravens and the
Speaker 1: Steelers over forty four. I'm taking the Vikings laying seven
Speaker 1: to the Lions, the Bills laying three to the Patriots,
Speaker 1: and I am taking the Chargers, sorry, getting three from
Speaker 1: the Bengals. All right, let's go through it. The Eagles
Speaker 1: are visiting the New York Jets, second straight game here
Speaker 1: for in the Meadowlands. They are laying now a touchdown.
Speaker 1: There are still six and a half's out there. Bet
Speaker 1: MGM is at six and a half, for example, but
Speaker 1: for the most part the books are at seven. Not
Speaker 1: sure if that makes a difference for you. Obviously, we
Speaker 1: have a few questions about Jalen Hurts and whether or
Speaker 1: not he's going to be able to suit up, but
Speaker 1: he is practicing here so far. So what do you
Speaker 1: think of this?
Speaker 2: I'm on the Jets and the point. I'm making some
Speaker 2: now that we're going to go through the other games.
Speaker 2: I'm on some ugly, ugly bets this week, and one
Speaker 2: of them is the Jets offensively over the last three games,
Speaker 2: both the Jets and the Eagles averaging the same amount
Speaker 2: of yards per game. The spread, I got it at seven.
Speaker 2: It's right at the touchdown. It's kind of that magic number.
Speaker 2: Jets are at home, not a lot to really have
Speaker 2: to back up on it, but I'm taking the Jets here.
Speaker 1: I got to stay away from this entire thing, man,
Speaker 1: I get it. I'm luckily I don't have to bet
Speaker 1: every single game, but if I did at seven, I
Speaker 1: probably would take the Jets, And if it's under a touchdown,
Speaker 1: I might go with the Eagles. But we'll see Bucks
Speaker 1: visiting the Falcons laying eleven. This number stayed pretty consistent
Speaker 1: all year long, all week long. It was eleven when
Speaker 1: we looked at it early. So what do you think I'm.
Speaker 2: On the Bucks to cover. I'm a Falcons fan. I've
Speaker 2: talked about this before. I've gone back. I've gone back
Speaker 2: and forth on the Falcons all season, but I've kind
Speaker 2: of said the fact that they're gonna be they're gonna
Speaker 2: beat the bad teams. They're gonna beat the teams that
Speaker 2: they should beat, but then they're gonna get blown out
Speaker 2: by the teams that they shouldn't beat. Cowboys smoked them,
Speaker 2: Patriots smoked them. Bucks are gonna smoke them here as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the Bucks as well. I remember you
Speaker 1: tweeting out before that Patriots Falcons game. It was enjoyable
Speaker 1: to watch you you just sort of going off on them.
Speaker 1: All right, how about the Colts are visiting the Texans.
Speaker 1: The Colts now are laying ten. This was eight and
Speaker 1: a half when I looked at it on Monday, so
Speaker 1: it has really moved in the Colts direction. Here. What
Speaker 1: do you think now? At ten?
Speaker 2: Is it up to ten? Who?
Speaker 1: So there are couple I will say this, the CONTENTSU
Speaker 1: line is ten bet MGM. For example, has it a
Speaker 1: ten DraftKings where I bet is at nine and a
Speaker 1: half Fox bet is at nine. But for the most part,
Speaker 1: the majority of the books are sitting there at ten.
Speaker 1: But I mean, if you can talk about it, if
Speaker 1: you like it at nine or you know, whatever you want,
Speaker 1: if it makes a difference to you.
Speaker 2: I took it, so I lock in my bets Wednesday night,
Speaker 2: So I got a bad number for me because I'm
Speaker 2: on the Texans. So I'm on Texans plus nine. Another ugly,
Speaker 2: ugly ugly bet. Fun fact though, and I found this
Speaker 2: out last night. For opponent yards per play over each
Speaker 2: team's last three games, it's either second or third best
Speaker 2: mark right now as the Texans now, if you look
Speaker 2: at who they played the last three games, so I
Speaker 2: think it's the Jets, Dolphins, and the Titans and the Hurricanes,
Speaker 2: So there is some context to that. But to be fair,
Speaker 2: the Texans defense has played a little bit better recently.
Speaker 2: And I'm not totally sold on the Colts to be honest.
Speaker 1: All right, back in a team that just lost to
Speaker 1: the Jets, you you gotta have some intestinal floriditude for it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: at ten. At ten, i'd stay away from it, you know.
Speaker 1: If anything, I'd back the Texans. I kind of like
Speaker 1: the Colts when it opened up at eight and a half,
Speaker 1: So I think i'd probably be on them at nine personally,
Speaker 1: because I do think that they may come out here
Speaker 1: and just again in a game that they obviously absolutely
Speaker 1: have to win, may make a statement, but yeah, Texans
Speaker 1: are a team I can't get a great read on
Speaker 1: at this point because I feel like sometimes like, of
Speaker 1: course I back them against the Titans when they were
Speaker 1: getting ten and that was, you know, one of my
Speaker 1: favorite bets of the week for sure, This one not
Speaker 1: at sure. What about the Dolphins at home length four
Speaker 1: to the Giants still sounds like it's gonna be Mike Glennon,
Speaker 1: I guess, But you know, Daniel Jones is practicing at
Speaker 1: this point, so who really knows any thoughts on this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Dolphins. Dolphins having kind of there's
Speaker 2: some positive regression from the Dolphins recently. They're playing a
Speaker 2: lot better than they have early in the season. Everyone's
Speaker 2: talking about two has played fantastic in the month of November.
Speaker 2: And like I said, I locked my bets Wednesday night.
Speaker 2: There's no way that I was gonna lock in the
Speaker 2: Giants and then have Mike Lennon start on Sunday. That
Speaker 2: would have been a disaster. So I'll avoid that completely.
Speaker 2: I'll just take the Dolphins and hope for the best.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I've I've kind of been a secret
Speaker 1: like Dolphins backer. And again, you know, Matt Prawlt, who
Speaker 1: hosts Our Delly neuws podcast has you know, teased me
Speaker 1: about being like a huge to offent. I'm not a
Speaker 1: huge two of fan. I just think that he is
Speaker 1: better than Jacobe Brissette and makes the offense passable, which
Speaker 1: he does. Jayalen Waell's playing incredible, so maybe they get
Speaker 1: DeVante Parker back here, by the way, so I agree
Speaker 1: with you though either way, even with Jones or Mike Lennon,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter me. I'll take him into four. The
Speaker 1: Rams at home lank twelve and a half to the Jaguars.
Speaker 2: The Rams have killed me recently. I've been the biggest
Speaker 2: Rams defender in the world. And then last week during
Speaker 2: their game, I tweeted halfway through the game about how
Speaker 2: the Rams are actually good, they're just running into some
Speaker 2: bad luck, and like thirty seconds after they tweeted it,
Speaker 2: they gave up a touchdown and then Matt Stafford threw
Speaker 2: pick six. So I just look like an idiot when
Speaker 2: I did it. But I mean, I'm a stats guy.
Speaker 2: And so they're owing three bow straight up and against
Speaker 2: the spread in their last three games, but in net
Speaker 2: yards per play in those three games are like plus
Speaker 2: point six y one, which is like the fifth or
Speaker 2: sixth best mark over each team's last three games, So
Speaker 2: they are statistically a good team. Just Matt Stafford's throwing
Speaker 2: bad at interception. Sean McVeagh, I haven't been a big
Speaker 2: fan of his play calling, but I got it back
Speaker 2: the numbers. The Rams are still like one of the
Speaker 2: top teams in the NFL stittistic statistically, and the Jaguars stinks.
Speaker 2: So I'm on the Rams, but I think I've just
Speaker 2: committed a dying on the Rams hill this season.
Speaker 1: Well, to be fair, I basically I will never bet
Speaker 1: on the like no matter what, I just won't. I
Speaker 1: won't do it because you know, I have no confidence
Speaker 1: that they'll be able to make any adjustments whatsoever in
Speaker 1: the second half, and just how poorly coach they are,
Speaker 1: so I would be on the Rams. I'm staying away though.
Speaker 1: Obviously this is a game where you would like to
Speaker 1: see the Rams come out and just basically completely dominate
Speaker 1: the entire thing. They really need a get right game.
Speaker 1: We talked about the total. Obviously, Ian, you're on this one,
Speaker 1: but what about the Steelers getting four and a half
Speaker 1: from the Ravens in Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I were to take I saw it. I
Speaker 2: would take the Ravens laying the points. And the reason
Speaker 2: why I mentioned about how the two defenses have the
Speaker 2: two big weaknesses. The Steelers can't stop the run, the
Speaker 2: Ravens can't stop the pass. Well, it's a better offensive
Speaker 2: matchup for the Ravens because I mean, who runs the
Speaker 2: ball better than the Baltimore Ravens. And then whereas the
Speaker 2: Ravens defense not going to stop in the pass. But
Speaker 2: do I trust Big Ben to kind of win the
Speaker 2: game for him with his arm? Not necessarily, so I
Speaker 2: would back the Ravens in that spot.
Speaker 1: I have absolutely no feel for this game whatsoever. The
Speaker 1: Ravens haven't played particularly well. I would probably continue my
Speaker 1: trend which does not always hold a backing Mike Tomlin
Speaker 1: in the raw ros spot where they are favored by
Speaker 1: more than a field goal. But it's a game that
Speaker 1: I will run away from at this point. Forty nine
Speaker 1: Ers visiting the Seahawks laying three and a half. Obviously,
Speaker 1: we've got no debo Samuel here for the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1: Seahawks look like an absolute mess right now. But it's
Speaker 1: a divisional game, it's in Seattle. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I talked about making ugly bets this week. This
Speaker 2: is another one, even though it's I mean, it's a
Speaker 2: small spread, but I love the Seahawks in this spot.
Speaker 2: And it makes no sense because the forty nine Ers
Speaker 2: have been rolling. The Seahawks have looked like one of
Speaker 2: the worst teams in the NFL recently. But a big
Speaker 2: stat that stuck out to me is, like the Lions,
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers have just completely turned to running
Speaker 2: the football. Over their last three games, They've run the ball.
Speaker 2: I think it's like sixty three percent of their plays
Speaker 2: or run plays, which is insane to see in the
Speaker 2: modern day of the NFL. But this Seahawks run defense
Speaker 2: is actually their biggest strength. I think they're fourth or
Speaker 2: fifth and opponent yards per carry. So that's the thing
Speaker 2: that the Seahawks do the best is stop the so
Speaker 2: I mean, and then outside of that, I mean, they're
Speaker 2: at home. It is a divisional game. Weird things happen.
Speaker 2: It just the forty nine Ers. Seems so obvious that
Speaker 2: the Seahawks have to be the play here.
Speaker 1: It's got to be. This is a line that basically
Speaker 1: imagine the split's going to be like seventy five to
Speaker 1: twenty five public is on the Niners, right like, this
Speaker 1: is a line that says take the Niners. Makes me
Speaker 1: very nervous when the books basically say go ahead, Ahad,
Speaker 1: we know we're not We're not going anywhere, go for
Speaker 1: it makes me nervous with it. I can't back them.
Speaker 1: I can't. It's to stay with me in a divisional game,
Speaker 1: which is a perfect letdown spot here for the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers, you know, and again you mentioned how much
Speaker 1: they run. It would be interesting because I mean, Deebo
Speaker 1: Samuel is basically taking like six seven carries a game anyway,
Speaker 1: but it would be interesting for me to see how
Speaker 1: this game is going to turn out. But with Russ
Speaker 1: looking the way he's looked, I just can't. I'm staying
Speaker 1: away from it entirely. But it's a line that makes
Speaker 1: me think they want you to take the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: and that always gives me pause for sure. Last one,
Speaker 1: because we've already talked about the Monday night game, Sunday
Speaker 1: night game. Here the Broncos are visiting the Chiefs. It
Speaker 1: is nine and a half across the board.
Speaker 2: I'll take the Chiefs, I'll lay the points, and I
Speaker 2: this is very unlike me because for like the past
Speaker 2: two seasons, I've been very anti Chiefs as far as
Speaker 2: the spread goes. But I think the Chiefs might be
Speaker 2: starting to peak. Their defense lately has been much better
Speaker 2: their past few games than they were earlier in the year,
Speaker 2: and despite all the offensive struggles that the Chiefs have
Speaker 2: had this season, they still rank first and third down
Speaker 2: conversion percentage, which is very important in my opinion. If
Speaker 2: you can convert those third downs, you're going to get points.
Speaker 2: And I think this is also a little bit of
Speaker 2: another cell high spot where the Broncos have the past
Speaker 2: few weeks, they're kind of starting to convince people that
Speaker 2: they're a better team. They are. They're fine, Broncos aren't
Speaker 2: a bad team, but they're around average too, slightly below
Speaker 2: average team. And then you got the Chiefs coming off
Speaker 2: the by Andy Reid has historically been a very good
Speaker 2: coach off the buye And it's not a bet that
Speaker 2: I love because it is a lot of points, especially
Speaker 2: with how the Chiefs have played generally this season, But
Speaker 2: I think we might start to see the Chiefs peak
Speaker 2: a little bit here as we hit it in the
Speaker 2: final stretch.
Speaker 1: I really wanted this to get to ten. That's where
Speaker 1: I really wanted it, because it's not I'm staying away
Speaker 1: from it. If it got to ten, I would take
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I think that you know, Teddy Covers is
Speaker 1: going to be able to keep it close enough. And
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have looked better and their defense, right, that's
Speaker 1: really the biggest thing. That's what gives me long term
Speaker 1: hope on them for sure, is they seem to have
Speaker 1: solved a lot of their defensive issues with some really
Speaker 1: just personnel, you know, getting some guys back and moving
Speaker 1: a couple of guys in the line around. But I
Speaker 1: still think that the Broncos will be able to hang
Speaker 1: with them. But I think ultimately they lose this game,
Speaker 1: and it's something where I if it got to ten,
Speaker 1: I would jump on the Broncos. Other than that, I
Speaker 1: am just staying away from it. All right, this was great,
Speaker 1: It was great to have be I will let me
Speaker 1: recap actually right now before you I let you go
Speaker 1: here just so everybody can remember, I'll go with mine first.
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Vikings lane seven to Detroit, the Bills
Speaker 1: laying three to the Patriots and the Chargers getting three
Speaker 1: from the Bengals and you are taking the Bears getting
Speaker 1: eight from the Cardinals, the Raiders laying two and a
Speaker 1: half against the Washington Football team, and the Ravens and
Speaker 1: the Steelers over forty four. Let's change the mojo. Get
Speaker 1: things right, Ian. You are a great follower on Twitter.
Speaker 1: At a great follow on Twitter. I enjoy your Falcons
Speaker 1: rants and all your crazy stuff anyway, but remind everybody
Speaker 1: where they can check you out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, best place is Twitter, as you mentioned there at
Speaker 2: the top Ian mac Bets I A I N M,
Speaker 2: A C B E T S and check out the
Speaker 2: Bacon Bets podcast. That's where I break down my best
Speaker 2: bet for every single NFL game throughout the season. So
Speaker 2: check out it as well.
Speaker 1: You are a mad man to do that, but you
Speaker 1: are doing You're incredibly successful. Let's go no giant losing weeks.
Speaker 1: That's where we'll go here for what we'll report everybody.
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us. We'll be back again on Monday,
Speaker 1: as we always are, taking an early look at the
Speaker 1: week fourteen lines, but I will say that we are
Speaker 1: adding this week a podcast that we will be recording
Speaker 1: tomorrow Friday. Whenever you listen to this, it will also
Speaker 1: be on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros,
Speaker 1: where we'll break down some of our favorite player prop
Speaker 1: bets for this weekend, so make sure to check that out.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, I will talk to you then and
Speaker 1: again on Monday.