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Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.

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Speaker 1: As we enter week thirteen, it is time to talk

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Speaker 1: about our best bets for the NFL for this coming weekend.

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Speaker 1: Here to do that with me is our good friend

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Speaker 1: Ian McMillan from bet Sided. Find him on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Ian mac betts. That's a I and Ian, thank you

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Speaker 1: for joining me. How you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing fantastic, my friend. Right We're really in the

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Speaker 2: grind of the NFL season right now, so I'm excited.

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Speaker 1: Well, I was telling you before we started recording that

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Speaker 1: we're coming off a little bit of a rough week

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Speaker 1: here on this podcast. Again, I mostly blame you for that,

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Speaker 1: even though you were not on it, but I do

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Speaker 1: want to ask, how is the bet every single game

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Speaker 1: sort of you know, experience going for you? I think

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Speaker 1: it's been pretty good if when we last checked in

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Speaker 1: on it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's still going well. I mean I got off

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Speaker 2: to a really hot start to the season. I've cooled

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Speaker 2: off a bit in recent weeks, but I haven't had

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Speaker 2: any like bad bad weeks. That are like really hurting

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Speaker 2: my record. So right now, betting on every single game

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Speaker 2: so far, I'm sitting out one hundred and four wins

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Speaker 2: seventy five loss is one push. I'm up just over

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Speaker 2: twenty five units right now, so I can stay fucking

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Speaker 2: kind of stay even keel here for the rest of

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Speaker 2: the season.

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Speaker 1: I'll be happy. That's where you are right at this point.

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Speaker 1: You're almost like playing defense. You're just like, exactly, I

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Speaker 1: don't need to crash it. I don't need to crash it.

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Speaker 1: Just just sort of keep me right in the middle there,

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Speaker 1: and I'll be fine going forward. So excellent, all right, Well,

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Speaker 1: hopefully give out some winners here again. We're going to

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Speaker 1: do our top three best bets of the weekend again,

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Speaker 1: anything we want here. You can do money line if

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Speaker 1: you want, but obviously spread and total bets. We will

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Speaker 1: then quickly run through the remaining games before we sign off,

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Speaker 1: and before we get into it, of course, I will

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Speaker 1: remind you of the latest offer from our sponsor here

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. New customers can bet ten dollars and win

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Speaker 1: free bets. I's a team they've bet on scores a

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Speaker 1: touchdown when you use the code Juice one hundred that

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Speaker 1: is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,

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Speaker 1: and Wyoming. Because I'm contractually obligated to run through last week,

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Speaker 1: so I will do so quickly. I'm gonna blame it

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Speaker 1: on the fact that it was like Thanksgiving, it was

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Speaker 1: earlier than usual recording, so whatever. But Pat Fitzmorris our

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Speaker 1: guests went one and two. He did hit on the

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Speaker 1: Lions plus three versus the Bears. Fun fact, he actually

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Speaker 1: thought he had taken the money line. He texted me

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving to say, oh man, what a bad bet

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Speaker 1: with the money line. But he actually had plus three

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Speaker 1: on the podcast, so he did get the win there.

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Speaker 1: But he did miss on the Raiders and the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: under fifty one and the Rams getting one against the Packers.

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Speaker 1: I went on and three, fantastic. I missed big on

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Speaker 1: these Steelers getting four and a half from the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: which I loved. The Texans Layington and alfter the Jets

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Speaker 1: and the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. I'm

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Speaker 1: now eighteen and eighteen on the year, so let's get

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Speaker 1: it back again. I'll use the betting pros consensus lines

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Speaker 1: when we talk about it, but Ian you are our guests,

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Speaker 1: please begin with your favorite bet of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Before I get dude, do you remember what my record

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Speaker 2: was last time I was on the show earlier in

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Speaker 2: the season.

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Speaker 1: Off the top of my head, I don't, but I

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Speaker 1: can look it up.

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Speaker 2: I think I hit Bengals money line back then, but

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Speaker 2: then I think I lost at least one. You definitely

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Speaker 2: Bengals against the Ravens, right.

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Speaker 1: You definitely hit the Bengals in the money line. You

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Speaker 1: know what, I tell you what. I will look it up,

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Speaker 1: but definitely the Bengals are a frequent visitor on our

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Speaker 1: podcast here with a Wares. I remember one hundred percent.

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Speaker 1: You hit the Bengals money line for sure that week.

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Speaker 1: I think it was like plus two twenty or whatever

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Speaker 1: it was. Hold on, I'm looking it up right now.

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Speaker 2: Let's think it was the way I mean, not that

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Speaker 2: I got it too much.

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Speaker 1: I got it.

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Speaker 2: Oh, you do you have it right now?

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Speaker 1: I do, all right? That's that. You took the Bengals

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Speaker 1: on the money line two thirty against the Ravens. You

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Speaker 1: had the Bucks laying twelve and a half against the Bears,

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Speaker 1: and you had the Patriots and they under under forty

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Speaker 1: two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that one didn't hit. Don't remember the Buccaneers game

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Speaker 2: to be.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at right now. I'm looking at it right now.

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Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm looking it up right now. No, you

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Speaker 1: went too and one. Yes, you hit. The Bucks did

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Speaker 1: cover the twelve and a half. I got it, have

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Speaker 1: my fingertips and you're fine. This is a great podcasting. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're fine. But you did miss on the Jets and

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Speaker 1: the Patriots under forty two and a half. So you're

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Speaker 1: two and one. That's that's great. So but you have

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Speaker 1: to go through another week. That's how we're all right.

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Speaker 2: No pressure. I don't unfortunately, don't have a money line

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Speaker 2: pick this week, but I'll I will get started. I do. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they they scare me. I missed on a couple so

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Speaker 2: that they scare me a little bit now, but I

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Speaker 2: am on a big underdog, but I'm on them to

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Speaker 2: cover the spread. That is, the Bears to cover the

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Speaker 2: eight point spread. Against the Cardinals this week. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it looks like Kyler Murray's back, I believe, so everyone's

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Speaker 2: gonna kind of jump on the Cardinals right now. Best

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Speaker 2: record in the NFL. Kyler Murray when he was healthy

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Speaker 2: was looking like an NFL MVP. But let's not forget

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Speaker 2: the Cardinals can't stop the run thirtieth in opponent yards

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Speaker 2: per carry, So teams are able to run the ball

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Speaker 2: against this Cardinals team, and that's how the Bears get

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Speaker 2: their yardage. Forty two point sixty five percent of the

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Speaker 2: Bears offensive yards come through the run game. That's the

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Speaker 2: second most in the NFL. And actually, the Bears have

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Speaker 2: been playing well recently. If you look at a stat

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Speaker 2: called net yards per play that I look at quite

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Speaker 2: a bit. Over their last three weeks, they're like third

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Speaker 2: or fourth in the NFL in that stat. So Bears

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Speaker 2: sneakily playing some half decent football recently. Their defense has

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Speaker 2: picked it up a little bit, and now they're getting

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Speaker 2: eight points, and I believe they're at home as well.

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Speaker 2: So my first bet of the week Bears plus eight

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Speaker 2: here against the Cardinals as an underdog.

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Speaker 1: So this is under the assumption that Kyler Murray is

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Speaker 1: going to play DeAndre Hopkins doesn't matter to you either

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Speaker 1: way if he plays, assuming that he plays, or still

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Speaker 1: thinking is out or irrelevant to you.

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Speaker 2: I'm assuming that he plays. But I mean if plus eight,

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Speaker 2: I mean I'll if it stays at that number, I'll

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Speaker 2: take Bears no matter who plays.

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Speaker 1: And so you are not concerned about the fact that

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Speaker 1: they squeaked out a win on Thanksgiving against the lowly Lions, then.

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Speaker 2: Not really. And I mean also there is a benefit,

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Speaker 2: a little bit of an extended by or a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a it is rest for them as well.

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Speaker 2: But no, I doesn't concern me a little bit too much.

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously, anytime I battle the Bears, because they're

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Speaker 2: just generally not a good football team, I'm a little

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Speaker 2: bit concerned. But the spread is over that magic number

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Speaker 2: of seven. I mean, if it was below a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: then maybe I'd leading Cardinals. But at eight points and

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Speaker 2: I believe they're home as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah quite a bit. I am going to call you

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Speaker 1: a coward for not taking them on plus two eighty

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Speaker 1: on the money line, but that's fine.

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Speaker 2: That's fine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, I don't have a great feel for it, honestly,

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Speaker 1: Like when I looked at the game. I just you know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think what worries me a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the Cardinals really, like putting aside like anything

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Speaker 1: that you said there is just the fact that, like

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Speaker 1: we are how many weeks removed here from this Murray

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Speaker 1: ankle injury and even now they don't talk about it like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's he's good to go here. I mean we've been

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Speaker 1: game time calls for two weeks. Then off the bye,

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Speaker 1: you thought like, okay, this point, dude, it was an

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Speaker 1: ankle sprain, Like let's go. They're a completely different team

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Speaker 1: if he plays but is immobile as well. So it

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Speaker 1: is something where yeah, I wouldn't take the Cardinals in

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Speaker 1: this game coming to Chicago, but I don't know, I

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Speaker 1: don't feel confident enough in Chicago, so to stay away

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Speaker 1: from me, but not gonna avoid it. You are definitely

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Speaker 1: going to go against me in a couple of these bets,

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Speaker 1: I guarantee, because even I when I think about some

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Speaker 1: of these bets, have to sort of double check how

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Speaker 1: I feel. And this is we're going with the other

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Speaker 1: team who's coming off a bye, but I'm going the

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Speaker 1: other way on it. Off the mini bi that is

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Speaker 1: the Lions. But I'm going the other way, and I'm

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Speaker 1: taking the Vikings to cover the seven points spread in Detroit. Now,

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Speaker 1: when you look at this game and you look at

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Speaker 1: sort of the trends that you know, might you know,

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Speaker 1: go in favor of one team or the other, everything

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Speaker 1: looks like it should favor the Lions in this game.

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Speaker 1: And I wholly admit that the Vikings are one and

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Speaker 1: eight against the spread in their last nine games as

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Speaker 1: a favorite. Three of their last four games have been

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Speaker 1: on the road, two of them in California. They play

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Speaker 1: a lot of close games no matter what. Every game

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Speaker 1: but two was decided by seven points or less. Half

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Speaker 1: of them have come down to the last play of

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Speaker 1: the game. So this is not a team that blows

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Speaker 1: anybody out. Part of it, I think is just that

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Speaker 1: they can't keep their foot on the gas, like they

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Speaker 1: jump out to leads and then they just sort of go,

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Speaker 1: you know whatever. These teams have already met the Vikings

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Speaker 1: where I think ten point favorites at one point in

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Speaker 1: that game, and they barely won nineteen seventeen. Again with

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Speaker 1: the last second field goal, Detroit is off the mini

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Speaker 1: by the Vikings are missing Dalvin Cook They've got a

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Speaker 1: ton of injuries on defense. Patrick Peterson's on the COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen list. All of this says the Lions are going

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Speaker 1: to be able to cover this seven point spread. But

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Speaker 1: I just refuse to buy it in this one, and

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Speaker 1: I think that this is going to just be a

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Speaker 1: Vikings route. Honestly, I think they're gonna win by double digits.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think the Eagles, the Eagles partly the

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Speaker 1: Lions can hang right now with the Vikings. They are

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Speaker 1: Lions are obviously going to be missing their most explosive

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Speaker 1: playmaker in DeAndre Swift, and since then Campbell took over

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Speaker 1: the play calling, like an already stagnant offense has been

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Speaker 1: even more stagnant. I know they had Boil under center

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Speaker 1: at one point, but really there's no creativity. It's a

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Speaker 1: lot of sort of conservative stuff, and I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that's gonna be able to hang again with the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: And again, the Vikings are gonna be out without Dalvin Cook, right.

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Speaker 1: I think that's actually, in some weird way in going

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Speaker 1: to help them in this game, because as Alexander Madison

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Speaker 1: is an absolutely capable guy to fill in. But I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to force them to go to the

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Speaker 1: air a little bit more and to you know, highlight

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Speaker 1: what they actually do better as opposed to Mike Zimmer

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Speaker 1: wanting to run the ball constantly. With Dalvin Cook. They

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Speaker 1: are second in offensive past d v O A, the

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Speaker 1: Lions defensive DVOA against the past twenty eighth. It's just

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Speaker 1: a good matchup here for what they do well. Let

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Speaker 1: trustin Jefferson, let Adam Thield, let Kirk Cousins do their thing.

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Speaker 1: This is an absolute must win game here for the

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Speaker 1: Vikings as they try to stay in playoff contention. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: I think they come out here. I think it's the

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Speaker 1: rare Vikings statement game, and I think they cover the

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Speaker 1: touchdown spread go ahead. So you gotta be on the Lions.

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Speaker 2: Right, not only the Lions. They're my money line picking

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Speaker 2: I will say. I mean, I hate my bet. I

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Speaker 2: hate the lines money line bet. It's a stupid bet.

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Speaker 2: So every single point that you said about the Vikings

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Speaker 2: I agree with. They're all correct, the right point, the

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Speaker 2: only real I mean. First of all, I've bet the

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Speaker 2: lines money line I think already like three times a season,

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Speaker 2: So I'm.

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Speaker 1: Kind why not the Bears? Why not the Bears may

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Speaker 1: be your buddy line pick. Man, if you're on them,

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Speaker 1: you think they could win that out right? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean that's that's why I didn't want to

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Speaker 2: make Lions money line my one of my top free

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Speaker 2: picks here because I don't feel confident in it whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: I just wanted to take a deep shot. I will

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Speaker 2: say one counterpoint, and a reason why I do kind

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Speaker 2: of lean the Lions is that they have been running

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Speaker 2: the ball a ton the past three weeks. Dane Campbell

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Speaker 2: has just completely turned to the run, and the Vikings

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Speaker 2: right now are dead last in the NFL and Copony

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Speaker 2: yards per carry. So but I mean DeAndre Swift as

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Speaker 2: I believe, I believe is oh by Samaal Williams. Jamal

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Speaker 2: Williams is a is a pretty decent backup running back,

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Speaker 2: So that doesn't concern me too too much. But I

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Speaker 2: think the Lions will have some success on the ground

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Speaker 2: a little bit. But yeah, so I'm on the lines,

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Speaker 2: but really that's just that's just kind of my shot

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Speaker 2: in the dark. Hail Mary of the week. It's not

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Speaker 2: a it's not a bet. I feel confident. I could

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Speaker 2: certainly see this being like a twenty point Vikings win

258
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Speaker 2: for sure.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not kidding you. If you support any of

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Speaker 1: the three bets I'm making today, I'm going to be surprised.

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Speaker 1: I'm not kidding because I I guarantee you that the

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Speaker 1: quote unquote sharp Side, which you know, I'm going going

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Speaker 1: to say that you're you know, you're a very experienced

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Speaker 1: better you're a smart guy. I'm going to say that

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Speaker 1: you're probably going to see a lot of these same

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Speaker 1: angles at the sharp Sea, which I see as well.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be on the Lions right like it

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Speaker 1: just has to be, because a seven points spread against

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Speaker 1: the Vikings with everything that you see in this divisional

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Speaker 1: game with Detroit at home, it's not a game that

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Speaker 1: you think the lot the Vikings are going to be

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Speaker 1: able to cover really is. And this is really I'm

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Speaker 1: not kidding, man. I really think that the Dalvin Cook

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Speaker 1: injury actually helps them and it's going to force them

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Speaker 1: to go to the air more, which is going to

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Speaker 1: you know, I realize that you're right that the Lions

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Speaker 1: are going to run the ball NonStop, and that's really

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Speaker 1: what they've done. And Jamal Williams is an absolutely capable

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Speaker 1: running back. He's not de Andre Swift, but he's capable

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Speaker 1: of running back for sure. But I just think, Man,

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Speaker 1: even with all their injuries, even with how they struggle

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Speaker 1: against a run, I just think this is going to

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Speaker 1: be something where they are going to exploit them through

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Speaker 1: the air, put up a ton of points, get a

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Speaker 1: much needed victory. But I am not surprised. I'm maybe

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Speaker 1: a little surprised on the money line, but not at

287
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Speaker 1: all surprised that you sort of like the other side

288
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Speaker 1: as I would expect. Really with this game, go to

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Speaker 1: your second pick. What do you have?

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Speaker 2: All right? Second pick? And this is my favorite bet

291
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Speaker 2: of the week and one of my favorite bets of

292
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Speaker 2: the entire NFL season, to be honest, and it's and

293
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Speaker 2: it is a public side though. I'm taking Raiders minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half here against Washington. A couple of

295
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Speaker 2: reasons why I like this bet quite a bit. Number One,

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Speaker 2: I think this is a very good cell high spot

297
00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,480
Speaker 2: on Washington. So they've won three straight games, they're starting

298
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Speaker 2: to convince people that they're not a bad football team.

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Speaker 2: But even though they've won three straight games, over those games,

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Speaker 2: their minus is zero point nine to seven and net

301
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Speaker 2: yards per play so actually getting outplayed. But they're just

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Speaker 2: finding ways to win these games. And then you look

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Speaker 2: at just normal statistics, I mean, twentieth in offensive yards

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Speaker 2: per play the season, twenty ninth in opponent yards per play,

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth in opponent yards per past tempt. So like,

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Speaker 2: don't let the last three weeks fool you, Like this

307
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,120
Speaker 2: Washington team is not a good football team, and then

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00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,240
Speaker 2: the Raiders are the complete opposite. Not a very good record,

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Speaker 2: but netyards per play and just quick explanation of what

310
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Speaker 2: it is is is just your offensive yards per play

311
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Speaker 2: subtracted by the deep like the yards given up on

312
00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,640
Speaker 2: defense per play. In the NFL, the top teams and

313
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Speaker 2: net yards per play got the Bills, the Rams, the Bucks,

314
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Speaker 2: and fourth on that list is the Las Vegas Raiders.

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Speaker 2: So statistically they're very good. They have had issues both

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Speaker 2: on third down and in the red zone, on offense

317
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 2: and on defense. And that's kind of what's affecting the

318
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Speaker 2: record right now. But not only am I on the

319
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Speaker 2: Raiders to win big this weekend's Washington Last night, I

320
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Speaker 2: placed a bet on the Raiders to win the Super

321
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Speaker 2: Bowl at eighty one.

322
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Speaker 1: Oh god goodness.

323
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Speaker 2: At eighty to one. I had to put a little

324
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Speaker 2: sprinkle on it because just those those yards per play statistics, man,

325
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Speaker 2: they rank among those top contenders like the Bills, like

326
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Speaker 2: the Bucks. So if they can figure out their third

327
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Speaker 2: down woes and the red zone woes, they're statistically a

328
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Speaker 2: very good team. So, I mean, I don't think the

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Speaker 2: Raiders are going to win the Super Bowl, but I

330
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Speaker 2: thought it was worth a little bit of a sprinkle

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Speaker 2: at eighty to one. And if there's ever a season

332
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Speaker 2: where like a six seed or seventh seed can go

333
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Speaker 2: on and win, it's this year because of just the

334
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Speaker 2: amount of parody in the NFL this year. So Raiders

335
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Speaker 2: love them this week for sure.

336
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Speaker 1: In the AFC, there is no standout team, like without

337
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 1: a doubt, like we've seen it, right. The Titans obviously

338
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,120
Speaker 1: have sort of come back down to earth, the you know,

339
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,320
Speaker 1: the Ravens, you know, squeaking by basically in a lot

340
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Speaker 1: of their wins. You've got the Patriots and the Bills

341
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Speaker 1: this weekend. We'll talk about that game in a second.

342
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Speaker 1: And the Chiefs obviously have shown some mission and one

343
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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna argue with anything. I do like this

344
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Speaker 1: this bet though, even without by the way, I want

345
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: to confirm because almost certainly, Darren Waller is probably going

346
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 1: to be out here. He's obviously been a big piece

347
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Speaker 1: of their offense. You're still okay with it. You are

348
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Speaker 1: basically baking that in and assuming that you're good with

349
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Speaker 1: them still.

350
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean in general injuries, I I don't change

351
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,160
Speaker 2: my opinion too much when when when guys road At

352
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Speaker 2: the end of the day, this is still professional football players. Sure, yeah,

353
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Speaker 2: I don't even to be honest, I can't even think

354
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Speaker 2: off the top of my head who their other tight

355
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:51,440
Speaker 2: end is. But at the end of the.

356
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Speaker 1: Day, theos more he's very bad. By the way, he's

357
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,040
Speaker 1: not bad. He's not a bad player.

358
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Speaker 2: Most of the time. In the NFL, except for maybe quarterback.

359
00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 2: Most of the time, the backups certainly aren't as good

360
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 2: as a starter, especially I did a guy to the

361
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,680
Speaker 2: level of Darren Waller, but they're still competent. They can

362
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:08,200
Speaker 2: still go in there and make a couple of plays.

363
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, no, it obviously i'd rather if Waller was playing,

364
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Speaker 2: but it doesn't. It's not gonna sway me away from

365
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:13,640
Speaker 2: the bed.

366
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Speaker 1: For me, it's really offensive, like the offensive line injuries,

367
00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 1: that's where I look at and that that's what really

368
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 1: makes me nervous, not as much as skill players. Yeah,

369
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Speaker 1: I like this one, and I really like what the

370
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,960
Speaker 1: Raiders did against the Cowboys, and again they were missing

371
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Speaker 1: Darren Waller for most of that game. It was two things.

372
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Speaker 1: Number One, they they established Josh Jacobs a little more,

373
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Speaker 1: which they had gotten away from a little bit. And

374
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Speaker 1: it's not like Jacobs is some necessarily elite running back

375
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 1: at this point, but he can get things done and

376
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,160
Speaker 1: they were kind of, you know, limiting him a little

377
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 1: bit for no reason. The second thing is again the

378
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 1: loss of Henry Ruggs, Like they stopped sort of spreading

379
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,000
Speaker 1: the field a little bit with that deep threat, and

380
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 1: they were having trouble sort of finding the underneath routes

381
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 1: and they finally got the Shan Jackson a little more

382
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 1: involved than you see it. It takes the top off the

383
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 1: defense that can't have safety help coming in on. These

384
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 1: guys like Hunter. Renfro had a monstrous game against Dallas.

385
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Speaker 1: So I think that's sort of the formula that we've

386
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Speaker 1: been waiting to see. You can pass all over Washington.

387
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Speaker 1: They're on a short week, but this is also by

388
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 1: the way, mini by and a short week here colliding

389
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,159
Speaker 1: right because the Raiders plan on Thanksgiving and Washington played

390
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,160
Speaker 1: on Monday night. So yeah, I liked it. I look

391
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:16,440
Speaker 1: when we looked at it on Monday, it was a

392
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,640
Speaker 1: game that I liked as well. And I think their

393
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,399
Speaker 1: win total was six and a half for the Raiders,

394
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 1: so this one would go over it for the season.

395
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:24,359
Speaker 1: Well on your way to winning a Super Bowl, be

396
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 1: my good man. So let's see about that, all right, man.

397
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,120
Speaker 1: There are two teams that I have faded generally ian

398
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 1: and it has not worked out of late. And they

399
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,400
Speaker 1: are the Patriots and they are the Bengals. And this

400
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,879
Speaker 1: is the first of the two. Dan is drawing a

401
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 1: line in the sand games and that I'm taking the

402
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,639
Speaker 1: Bills laying the field goal at home on Monday night

403
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 1: against the Patriots. I continue to think the Patriots are

404
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 1: a little bit overrated. The defense is legitimate. I'm not

405
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 1: taking anything away from it. I want to make that clear.

406
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 1: One of the best defenses in the NFL. I agree.

407
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 1: It's really the offense that I don't buy. They have

408
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 1: six wins and in a row, the only close one

409
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 1: was the Chargers. They run the ball well. Mac Dones

410
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,959
Speaker 1: is executing that offense to perfection. But I went back

411
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,960
Speaker 1: and I watched that game against the Titans. I'd listened

412
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: to this part in the radio. I went back and

413
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: I watched it, and there's a period in that game

414
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,160
Speaker 1: last week against the Titans where Mac Jones looks completely

415
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 1: lost two drives, only that three drives, and you know,

416
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:21,640
Speaker 1: then they were able to run the ball a little

417
00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 1: bit better and change things up where when the game

418
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 1: was put on him, when he had to do some

419
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,120
Speaker 1: passing coming up, he looked lost a little bit as

420
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 1: they changed their scheme and they got a little pressure

421
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 1: on him, And I think that's what we've got. And

422
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 1: now we are going to Buffalo on a nationally televised

423
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 1: game in a very tough place to play, particularly now

424
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 1: as we are into December where it's going to be cold.

425
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 1: Rain right now is in the forecast, but either way,

426
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 1: that is a really really tough place to play. And Jones,

427
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,879
Speaker 1: like pretty much every quarterback, but certainly rookie quarterbacks, struggles

428
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: against pressure. A seventy three point eight percent completion rate

429
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,120
Speaker 1: when not under pressure seven point nine yards per attempt,

430
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 1: fifty nine point three percent completion rate went under pressure

431
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 1: six point two yards per attempt. The Bills get pressure

432
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 1: thirty point two percent of the time. That is the

433
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,720
Speaker 1: highest pressure rate in the NFL. They don't blitz a

434
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 1: ton either, so they're able to do that without the blitz.

435
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 1: And the Patriots survive on the run game that is

436
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 1: what sets up their pass But the Bills are one

437
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,199
Speaker 1: of the best run defenses in the league. And to

438
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 1: win this game, to be able to put up points,

439
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 1: I feel like it's gonna have to go on mac Jones,

440
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 1: and I just don't think he's going to really be

441
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,199
Speaker 1: able to do that in this environment. And again, they

442
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 1: lost to fore Deevius White. But if there's a team

443
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,640
Speaker 1: where losing Trudevius White doesn't hurt you quite as much

444
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 1: against it is a Patriots who don't have that prototypical

445
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: number one wide receiver. Offensively, the Bills have been struggling,

446
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 1: I fully admit that, and I don't expect them to

447
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 1: sort of run roughshot over the Patriots here. But if

448
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 1: they do have a weakness, right, it's the run. That's

449
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 1: not usually how the Bills sort of attack. But I

450
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 1: do think that given the fact that the Bills are

451
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 1: off the mini by here again, they have a little

452
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 1: extra time to prep for this I think you're gonna

453
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 1: see a lot of Josh Allen running here as he

454
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 1: looks to avoid chances. And I think Stevan Diggs can

455
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 1: beat any quarterback. We saw the brilliant move that you've

456
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 1: seen all over and over and over against marsha On Latimore.

457
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be able to move the ball,

458
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 1: put up enough points. And again it's three points or

459
00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,120
Speaker 1: last man, You're really just basically saying, I think they're

460
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 1: going to win this game. So I think they're gonna

461
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 1: win this game. So I'm taking the Bills at home

462
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 1: on Monday night to reclaim the AFC East here in

463
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 1: the divisional match up laying three.

464
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: You know, Dan, you said that you assumed that I

465
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 2: was going to be on the opposite side of all

466
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 2: your picks. I think I might be with you on

467
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: all these picks because I'm on the Bills too. Really, yeah,

468
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 2: I'm not always. I mean, I think there's some sports

469
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: betters out there who just kind of like follow the

470
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 2: sharp side. I'm certainly not one of those guys. I'm

471
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 2: a very statistic space handicapper sometimes. I mean a good

472
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 2: portion of the time I'm on the public side, and

473
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 2: statistically the Bills. I keep citing that net yards per play.

474
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 2: That's my favorite stat to look at, especially once we

475
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 2: get halfway through the NFL season and the Bills are

476
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 2: first in the NFL by mile. So that's a good

477
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 2: sign for the Bills. And the other thing that I

478
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: like to do betting, especially on the NFL, is sell

479
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,879
Speaker 2: high on t teams, buy low on other teams. And

480
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: there's no team to sell at a higher mark right

481
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,400
Speaker 2: now than the Patriots. Six straight wins, six straight covers.

482
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 2: Everyone's just starting to talk about how their super Bowl contenders.

483
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,439
Speaker 2: They're certainly a playoff team for sure. As you mentioned,

484
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 2: their defense is very very good. I just don't trust

485
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 2: that a rookie quarterback is going to be able to

486
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 2: lead the lead this team to a super Bowl, be

487
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,719
Speaker 2: able to lead this team against teams like the Bills,

488
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 2: very good teams in the NFL, especially in you know,

489
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: bright light situations. So I like the Bills quite a bit. Yeah,

490
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 2: I statistically, and I'm just gonna sell high on the Patriots.

491
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I'm on the Bills.

492
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been. I've been trying to sell high in

493
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 1: the Patriots for a while here, but really, I mean

494
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 1: look again, I want to make it clear just his

495
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: Pats fans, And again I live in New England. I'm

496
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: quite familiar with you know, they get pretty angry, including

497
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: my in laws, that I think the Patriots are a

498
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 1: very good team. They're going to make the playoffs. They

499
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 1: are not as good as the Bills. Like there, you

500
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: can't have Mac Jones is a very very capable quarterback

501
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 1: right now. I've been impressed by what I've seen from

502
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 1: him in the NFL. But he is doing well because

503
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: of their and because of their system, because they run

504
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: the ball so well, because they don't take chances. I

505
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 1: think in this game he's going to need to take chances.

506
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: We have seen him have plenty of rookie moments. And

507
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 1: again in Buffalo against a team like the Bills with

508
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: that defense, I just don't see it. And we are

509
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: in December, like it is different. Also playing in Buffalo

510
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: on a Sunday game at one o'clock in September as

511
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: opposed to a Monday night game in December. In Buffalo,

512
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 1: it's a tough place to play. Used to go to school.

513
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: There's plenty of Bills games. Love the fans. I think

514
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: they're gonna win this one. I think they're gonna win

515
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 1: a big so I will take them. Glad to have

516
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 1: you on my side. Third pick for you, Gitzar, what

517
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 1: do you have?

518
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: So I'm going with a total, So a little bit

519
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 2: of everything here. I gave on underdog, gave out a favorite.

520
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 2: Looking at a total. Now I'm going Raven Steelers and

521
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go over forty four. At least that's what

522
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 2: it was that last night. I haven't checked if the

523
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 2: line is of up beatda all this morning, But when

524
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 2: you think of the Ravens and the Steelers, like your

525
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 2: mind just goes to the fact that they have two

526
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 2: of the best defenses in the league. Because it's been

527
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 2: that case for like two decades now. It's usually almost

528
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 2: every single season in the top five defenses, you'll find

529
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: the Steelers in the Ravens. But that's not the cases

530
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: here at all. As a matter of fact, both of

531
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 2: them are like near the bottom and most defensive statistics.

532
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,919
Speaker 2: Steelers are twenty fifth and opponent yards per play the

533
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 2: Ravens are thirtieth. The Steelers can't stop the run. They're

534
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 2: thirty first in pony yards per carry, and the Ravens

535
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 2: can't stop the past thirtieth in opponent yards per pass attempt,

536
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 2: So you got to kind of wipe your mind of

537
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 2: kind of just like what we've assumed would be the

538
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 2: case a year in and year out in the NFL. These

539
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 2: defenses aren't good, but yet the totals only set up

540
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 2: forty four. Now, I know the Ravens haven't scored a

541
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: ton of points recently, the Steelers offense has been bad,

542
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 2: but for total this low, I wouldn't want to bet

543
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 2: on the under when both defenses are like bottom five

544
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,159
Speaker 2: and a lot of major statistics. So I think this

545
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 2: total is way too low. The over forty four Raven

546
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: Steelers I think, I think we're going to reach that here.

547
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on this one for sure. And again,

548
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: I do think that the defensive reputations sort of stick

549
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: in the public's mind with this sort of thing, when

550
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 1: really both defense are entirely exploitable here and again, I believe,

551
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: I hope I'm not making this up that TJ. Watt

552
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: was placed on the COVID nineteen list. I think I

553
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 1: could be now making that up as I say that,

554
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: I'm sort of having a panic attack. Doesn't matter, but

555
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: you can look it up but I think he was

556
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: placed on the COVID list. But that's a huge loss

557
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: assuming that he's out. Obviously, I don't know whether or

558
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 1: not Joe Hayden, Am I right? Am? I right with it?

559
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: Was he on there? Were you looking it up? Yeah?

560
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: You're correct. And Steelers linebacker Robert Spiellen is he a starter?

561
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, they just added another linebacker to the COVID list.

562
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: But by the way, they obviously I mean Ben was

563
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 1: on the COVID list, like they obviously have some sort

564
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 1: of COVID issues that they got it. What is a

565
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: huge deal though, obviously, and maybe Joe Hayden comes back here.

566
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 1: But either way, you just saw the Bengals just completely

567
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: decimate them. But I do think that the Steelers are

568
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: gonna be able to put up points as well against

569
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: the Ravens. So I'm with you on this one. I

570
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 1: like it as well. I'm going to continue to fade

571
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: the Bengals. And what I really would like Ian is

572
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 1: after I do this is for you to explain to

573
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: me how you feel about the Bengals, Okay, because I

574
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: haven't always faded them, and when I have sometimes it's

575
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: worked out, Like the game against Cleveland. But I faded

576
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: them against Pittsburgh, and maybe that was more of a

577
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 1: raw ra spot that I like Pittsburgh and whatever, but

578
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 1: I'm going to fade them here. I'm gonna take the

579
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: Chargers getting three against the Bengals in Cincinnati. This is

580
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 1: again you mentioned sort of the Bilo Sell High. I

581
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are a very classic sort of cell

582
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 1: high team right now. Back to back wins, monstrous performance here.

583
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: They won with these against Pittsburgh. Chargers just lost to Denver.

584
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 1: So that's usually just sort of the natural spot that

585
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: I feel like, I generally like piques my interest a

586
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 1: little bit when I look at teams and I think

587
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: of where the right spot is to back a team

588
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: versus faded team. That's where we are here. And really

589
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: these two teams are just pretty even. The Chargers are

590
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 1: sixteenth in overall DVOA, the Bengals are eighteenth. They're very

591
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 1: similarly matched teams. There are some things to worry about

592
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. Obviously, their run defense is horrific, and

593
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: we just we've seen now the Bengals lean into Joe

594
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: Mixon here. We saw it in this most recent game.

595
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: For sure. I think the Chargers, though, are going to

596
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: get Linval Joseph back here. He's on the COVID list.

597
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: He's you know, he's eligible to come off, but he

598
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 1: wasn't vaccinated, so he should be able to come off

599
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: still at this point a couple of days, but I

600
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 1: think maybe today might be the day where he's able

601
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: to come off. Assuming that he does, which I am

602
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 1: assuming right now. It makes a huge difference for their

603
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 1: run defense. Again, their run Devens is bad, but a

604
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 1: lot of it has just been because they haven't been

605
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 1: healthy that much. So Joseph makes a huge difference in

606
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: that run game. So West Coast team is traveling east.

607
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 1: I get all that, but this is a game the

608
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: Chargers have to win. They absolutely have to And I

609
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: know the Cincinnati deve it's just looked awesome against Ben,

610
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,959
Speaker 1: But that's a different story here. When you have that

611
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 1: offensive line and you have a quarterback like Ben who's immobile,

612
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 1: who just gets the ball out, charges are much better offensively.

613
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert is mobile, Cincinnati is susceptible to like the

614
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 1: big plays down the field, which of course Herbert can do.

615
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: And you know, whatever they've done against opposing passers when

616
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: you look at the opposing passers that they've faced. Ian Like,

617
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: they've faced a pretty easy slate of you know, opposing

618
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: quarterbacks here, so the fact that they've generally held like

619
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:33,640
Speaker 1: passing games in check not crazy, but generally I think

620
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 1: it's a little overrated based on who they've got. It's

621
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: really just a fade of the Bengals here in a

622
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 1: spot where again selling them high buy and low on

623
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 1: the charters, I think they're overvalued in the market because

624
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: of recency bias. So I'm fading the Bengals for like

625
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: the eighth straight week here and hopefully things turn around.

626
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 1: All right, what do we got fading or following?

627
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: No, I like it. I agree with almost every point

628
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 2: that you made. Now Now in my so, I am

629
00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 2: on the charters. But this is a game like a

630
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 2: true coin flip game for me, so like I'm betting

631
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 2: on every single NFL game. If I wasn't, I would

632
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 2: probably just stay away from this game because, like you said, statistically,

633
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 2: they're right next to each other in a lot of

634
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 2: major stats that I look at. But anytime there's a

635
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 2: coin flip game, I'll just go ahead and take the

636
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 2: team getting the points. So that's why I'm on the

637
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 2: Chargers here. They do have slight advantages in like the

638
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 2: yards per play categories, but the Chargers defense bad on

639
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: third down defense and bad in the red zone as well,

640
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 2: and that's kind of where the Bengals have their advantage.

641
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 2: So depending on what stat you look at, some favor

642
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: the Bengals, favor the Chargers. So true, coin flip game,

643
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 2: in my opinion, I like your point about we're selling

644
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 2: high a little bit on the Bengals buying a little

645
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: bit low on the Chargers. I like that as well,

646
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 2: and that's another reason why I'm on the charters here,

647
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 2: So coin flip, I don't love the game any literally,

648
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: anything could happen in this game and I wouldn't be shocked.

649
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: But in these kinds of games, I like just taking

650
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 2: the team with the points and hoping for the best, right.

651
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: I like taking the underdog, obviously in these types of

652
00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 1: games where you really just have too evenly matched teams,

653
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: and I don't think it's a huge home field advantage

654
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: or anything like that, but yeah, I really like I

655
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: know bilos sell high is pretty simplistic, but more often

656
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: than not, that's a place where you see an edge

657
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 1: here where the public wants to back obviously, teams that

658
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 1: are riding high. So I would love to very quickly

659
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: just go through the remaining spread see how you feel

660
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: about them in a very quick, rapid fire fashion. But

661
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: let me recap it. You're taking the Bears getting eight

662
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: from the Cardinals, the Raiders laying two and a half

663
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: against the Washington football team, and the Ravens and the

664
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: Steelers over forty four. I'm taking the Vikings laying seven

665
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: to the Lions, the Bills laying three to the Patriots,

666
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: and I am taking the Chargers, sorry, getting three from

667
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 1: the Bengals. All right, let's go through it. The Eagles

668
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: are visiting the New York Jets, second straight game here

669
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: for in the Meadowlands. They are laying now a touchdown.

670
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: There are still six and a half's out there. Bet

671
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: MGM is at six and a half, for example, but

672
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 1: for the most part the books are at seven. Not

673
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 1: sure if that makes a difference for you. Obviously, we

674
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: have a few questions about Jalen Hurts and whether or

675
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: not he's going to be able to suit up, but

676
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: he is practicing here so far. So what do you

677
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 1: think of this?

678
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 2: I'm on the Jets and the point. I'm making some

679
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 2: now that we're going to go through the other games.

680
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 2: I'm on some ugly, ugly bets this week, and one

681
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 2: of them is the Jets offensively over the last three games,

682
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: both the Jets and the Eagles averaging the same amount

683
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 2: of yards per game. The spread, I got it at seven.

684
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 2: It's right at the touchdown. It's kind of that magic number.

685
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 2: Jets are at home, not a lot to really have

686
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 2: to back up on it, but I'm taking the Jets here.

687
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: I got to stay away from this entire thing, man,

688
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: I get it. I'm luckily I don't have to bet

689
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: every single game, but if I did at seven, I

690
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: probably would take the Jets, And if it's under a touchdown,

691
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: I might go with the Eagles. But we'll see Bucks

692
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 1: visiting the Falcons laying eleven. This number stayed pretty consistent

693
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: all year long, all week long. It was eleven when

694
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: we looked at it early. So what do you think I'm.

695
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: On the Bucks to cover. I'm a Falcons fan. I've

696
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 2: talked about this before. I've gone back. I've gone back

697
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: and forth on the Falcons all season, but I've kind

698
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 2: of said the fact that they're gonna be they're gonna

699
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 2: beat the bad teams. They're gonna beat the teams that

700
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 2: they should beat, but then they're gonna get blown out

701
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: by the teams that they shouldn't beat. Cowboys smoked them,

702
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: Patriots smoked them. Bucks are gonna smoke them here as well.

703
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the Bucks as well. I remember you

704
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 1: tweeting out before that Patriots Falcons game. It was enjoyable

705
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: to watch you you just sort of going off on them.

706
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 1: All right, how about the Colts are visiting the Texans.

707
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: The Colts now are laying ten. This was eight and

708
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 1: a half when I looked at it on Monday, so

709
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: it has really moved in the Colts direction. Here. What

710
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: do you think now? At ten?

711
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 2: Is it up to ten? Who?

712
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: So there are couple I will say this, the CONTENTSU

713
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: line is ten bet MGM. For example, has it a

714
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: ten DraftKings where I bet is at nine and a

715
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 1: half Fox bet is at nine. But for the most part,

716
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 1: the majority of the books are sitting there at ten.

717
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: But I mean, if you can talk about it, if

718
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: you like it at nine or you know, whatever you want,

719
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: if it makes a difference to you.

720
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 2: I took it, so I lock in my bets Wednesday night,

721
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 2: So I got a bad number for me because I'm

722
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: on the Texans. So I'm on Texans plus nine. Another ugly,

723
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 2: ugly ugly bet. Fun fact though, and I found this

724
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 2: out last night. For opponent yards per play over each

725
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 2: team's last three games, it's either second or third best

726
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: mark right now as the Texans now, if you look

727
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 2: at who they played the last three games, so I

728
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 2: think it's the Jets, Dolphins, and the Titans and the Hurricanes,

729
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 2: So there is some context to that. But to be fair,

730
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 2: the Texans defense has played a little bit better recently.

731
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 2: And I'm not totally sold on the Colts to be honest.

732
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: All right, back in a team that just lost to

733
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: the Jets, you you gotta have some intestinal floriditude for it. Yeah,

734
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 1: at ten. At ten, i'd stay away from it, you know.

735
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: If anything, I'd back the Texans. I kind of like

736
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: the Colts when it opened up at eight and a half,

737
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: So I think i'd probably be on them at nine personally,

738
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 1: because I do think that they may come out here

739
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: and just again in a game that they obviously absolutely

740
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: have to win, may make a statement, but yeah, Texans

741
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: are a team I can't get a great read on

742
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: at this point because I feel like sometimes like, of

743
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: course I back them against the Titans when they were

744
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: getting ten and that was, you know, one of my

745
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: favorite bets of the week for sure, This one not

746
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: at sure. What about the Dolphins at home length four

747
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: to the Giants still sounds like it's gonna be Mike Glennon,

748
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: I guess, But you know, Daniel Jones is practicing at

749
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: this point, so who really knows any thoughts on this one.

750
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Dolphins. Dolphins having kind of there's

751
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 2: some positive regression from the Dolphins recently. They're playing a

752
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 2: lot better than they have early in the season. Everyone's

753
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: talking about two has played fantastic in the month of November.

754
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 2: And like I said, I locked my bets Wednesday night.

755
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: There's no way that I was gonna lock in the

756
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 2: Giants and then have Mike Lennon start on Sunday. That

757
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: would have been a disaster. So I'll avoid that completely.

758
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: I'll just take the Dolphins and hope for the best.

759
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I've I've kind of been a secret

760
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: like Dolphins backer. And again, you know, Matt Prawlt, who

761
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: hosts Our Delly neuws podcast has you know, teased me

762
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: about being like a huge to offent. I'm not a

763
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 1: huge two of fan. I just think that he is

764
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: better than Jacobe Brissette and makes the offense passable, which

765
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: he does. Jayalen Waell's playing incredible, so maybe they get

766
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: DeVante Parker back here, by the way, so I agree

767
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: with you though either way, even with Jones or Mike Lennon,

768
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter me. I'll take him into four. The

769
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: Rams at home lank twelve and a half to the Jaguars.

770
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 2: The Rams have killed me recently. I've been the biggest

771
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 2: Rams defender in the world. And then last week during

772
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: their game, I tweeted halfway through the game about how

773
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 2: the Rams are actually good, they're just running into some

774
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: bad luck, and like thirty seconds after they tweeted it,

775
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 2: they gave up a touchdown and then Matt Stafford threw

776
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 2: pick six. So I just look like an idiot when

777
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 2: I did it. But I mean, I'm a stats guy.

778
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 2: And so they're owing three bow straight up and against

779
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: the spread in their last three games, but in net

780
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 2: yards per play in those three games are like plus

781
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: point six y one, which is like the fifth or

782
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 2: sixth best mark over each team's last three games, So

783
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: they are statistically a good team. Just Matt Stafford's throwing

784
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: bad at interception. Sean McVeagh, I haven't been a big

785
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 2: fan of his play calling, but I got it back

786
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 2: the numbers. The Rams are still like one of the

787
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 2: top teams in the NFL stittistic statistically, and the Jaguars stinks.

788
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: So I'm on the Rams, but I think I've just

789
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 2: committed a dying on the Rams hill this season.

790
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: Well, to be fair, I basically I will never bet

791
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: on the like no matter what, I just won't. I

792
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 1: won't do it because you know, I have no confidence

793
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: that they'll be able to make any adjustments whatsoever in

794
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: the second half, and just how poorly coach they are,

795
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,439
Speaker 1: so I would be on the Rams. I'm staying away though.

796
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 1: Obviously this is a game where you would like to

797
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: see the Rams come out and just basically completely dominate

798
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: the entire thing. They really need a get right game.

799
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 1: We talked about the total. Obviously, Ian, you're on this one,

800
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 1: but what about the Steelers getting four and a half

801
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 1: from the Ravens in Pittsburgh.

802
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I were to take I saw it. I

803
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 2: would take the Ravens laying the points. And the reason

804
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 2: why I mentioned about how the two defenses have the

805
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 2: two big weaknesses. The Steelers can't stop the run, the

806
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 2: Ravens can't stop the pass. Well, it's a better offensive

807
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 2: matchup for the Ravens because I mean, who runs the

808
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 2: ball better than the Baltimore Ravens. And then whereas the

809
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: Ravens defense not going to stop in the pass. But

810
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 2: do I trust Big Ben to kind of win the

811
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 2: game for him with his arm? Not necessarily, so I

812
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 2: would back the Ravens in that spot.

813
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 1: I have absolutely no feel for this game whatsoever. The

814
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 1: Ravens haven't played particularly well. I would probably continue my

815
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 1: trend which does not always hold a backing Mike Tomlin

816
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 1: in the raw ros spot where they are favored by

817
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: more than a field goal. But it's a game that

818
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 1: I will run away from at this point. Forty nine

819
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 1: Ers visiting the Seahawks laying three and a half. Obviously,

820
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,919
Speaker 1: we've got no debo Samuel here for the forty nine Ers.

821
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 1: Seahawks look like an absolute mess right now. But it's

822
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 1: a divisional game, it's in Seattle. What do you think?

823
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I talked about making ugly bets this week. This

824
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 2: is another one, even though it's I mean, it's a

825
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 2: small spread, but I love the Seahawks in this spot.

826
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 2: And it makes no sense because the forty nine Ers

827
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: have been rolling. The Seahawks have looked like one of

828
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 2: the worst teams in the NFL recently. But a big

829
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 2: stat that stuck out to me is, like the Lions,

830
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers have just completely turned to running

831
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 2: the football. Over their last three games, They've run the ball.

832
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 2: I think it's like sixty three percent of their plays

833
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: or run plays, which is insane to see in the

834
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,720
Speaker 2: modern day of the NFL. But this Seahawks run defense

835
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 2: is actually their biggest strength. I think they're fourth or

836
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: fifth and opponent yards per carry. So that's the thing

837
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 2: that the Seahawks do the best is stop the so

838
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 2: I mean, and then outside of that, I mean, they're

839
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 2: at home. It is a divisional game. Weird things happen.

840
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: It just the forty nine Ers. Seems so obvious that

841
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 2: the Seahawks have to be the play here.

842
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 1: It's got to be. This is a line that basically

843
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: imagine the split's going to be like seventy five to

844
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: twenty five public is on the Niners, right like, this

845
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: is a line that says take the Niners. Makes me

846
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 1: very nervous when the books basically say go ahead, Ahad,

847
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: we know we're not We're not going anywhere, go for

848
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 1: it makes me nervous with it. I can't back them.

849
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: I can't. It's to stay with me in a divisional game,

850
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,479
Speaker 1: which is a perfect letdown spot here for the forty

851
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: nine ers, you know, and again you mentioned how much

852
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: they run. It would be interesting because I mean, Deebo

853
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 1: Samuel is basically taking like six seven carries a game anyway,

854
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 1: but it would be interesting for me to see how

855
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 1: this game is going to turn out. But with Russ

856
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: looking the way he's looked, I just can't. I'm staying

857
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: away from it entirely. But it's a line that makes

858
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: me think they want you to take the forty nine ers,

859
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,879
Speaker 1: and that always gives me pause for sure. Last one,

860
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: because we've already talked about the Monday night game, Sunday

861
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 1: night game. Here the Broncos are visiting the Chiefs. It

862
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: is nine and a half across the board.

863
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 2: I'll take the Chiefs, I'll lay the points, and I

864
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,240
Speaker 2: this is very unlike me because for like the past

865
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 2: two seasons, I've been very anti Chiefs as far as

866
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: the spread goes. But I think the Chiefs might be

867
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: starting to peak. Their defense lately has been much better

868
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 2: their past few games than they were earlier in the year,

869
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 2: and despite all the offensive struggles that the Chiefs have

870
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: had this season, they still rank first and third down

871
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 2: conversion percentage, which is very important in my opinion. If

872
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 2: you can convert those third downs, you're going to get points.

873
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 2: And I think this is also a little bit of

874
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:43,760
Speaker 2: another cell high spot where the Broncos have the past

875
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: few weeks, they're kind of starting to convince people that

876
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 2: they're a better team. They are. They're fine, Broncos aren't

877
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: a bad team, but they're around average too, slightly below

878
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: average team. And then you got the Chiefs coming off

879
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 2: the by Andy Reid has historically been a very good

880
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 2: coach off the buye And it's not a bet that

881
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: I love because it is a lot of points, especially

882
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 2: with how the Chiefs have played generally this season, But

883
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,479
Speaker 2: I think we might start to see the Chiefs peak

884
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 2: a little bit here as we hit it in the

885
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 2: final stretch.

886
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: I really wanted this to get to ten. That's where

887
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,839
Speaker 1: I really wanted it, because it's not I'm staying away

888
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 1: from it. If it got to ten, I would take

889
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,800
Speaker 1: the Broncos. I think that you know, Teddy Covers is

890
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 1: going to be able to keep it close enough. And

891
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,919
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have looked better and their defense, right, that's

892
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: really the biggest thing. That's what gives me long term

893
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 1: hope on them for sure, is they seem to have

894
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: solved a lot of their defensive issues with some really

895
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,280
Speaker 1: just personnel, you know, getting some guys back and moving

896
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: a couple of guys in the line around. But I

897
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: still think that the Broncos will be able to hang

898
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 1: with them. But I think ultimately they lose this game,

899
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: and it's something where I if it got to ten,

900
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: I would jump on the Broncos. Other than that, I

901
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: am just staying away from it. All right, this was great,

902
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 1: It was great to have be I will let me

903
00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 1: recap actually right now before you I let you go

904
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 1: here just so everybody can remember, I'll go with mine first.

905
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,439
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Vikings lane seven to Detroit, the Bills

906
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: laying three to the Patriots and the Chargers getting three

907
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: from the Bengals and you are taking the Bears getting

908
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: eight from the Cardinals, the Raiders laying two and a

909
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 1: half against the Washington Football team, and the Ravens and

910
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: the Steelers over forty four. Let's change the mojo. Get

911
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 1: things right, Ian. You are a great follower on Twitter.

912
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 1: At a great follow on Twitter. I enjoy your Falcons

913
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 1: rants and all your crazy stuff anyway, but remind everybody

914
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 1: where they can check you out.

915
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, best place is Twitter, as you mentioned there at

916
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,800
Speaker 2: the top Ian mac Bets I A I N M,

917
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 2: A C B E T S and check out the

918
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 2: Bacon Bets podcast. That's where I break down my best

919
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: bet for every single NFL game throughout the season. So

920
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 2: check out it as well.

921
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 1: You are a mad man to do that, but you

922
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: are doing You're incredibly successful. Let's go no giant losing weeks.

923
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 1: That's where we'll go here for what we'll report everybody.

924
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:52,760
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us. We'll be back again on Monday,

925
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 1: as we always are, taking an early look at the

926
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: week fourteen lines, but I will say that we are

927
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 1: adding this week a podcast that we will be recording

928
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 1: tomorrow Friday. Whenever you listen to this, it will also

929
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 1: be on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros,

930
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 1: where we'll break down some of our favorite player prop

931
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 1: bets for this weekend, so make sure to check that out.

932
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 1: In the meantime, I will talk to you then and

933
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:30,400
Speaker 1: again on Monday.