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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are heading into conference championships Sunday. I'm feeling both

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Speaker 1: euphoria and sadness. I am joined as I am for

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Speaker 1: every episode by my co host, my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hello Chad. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is truly the best time of year in the

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Speaker 1: worst time of year. It's so upsetting. Yeah, I'm I'm uh,

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Speaker 1: I'm crushed about so much of it. I was sitting

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Speaker 1: at dinner with my wife and Sun last night. I

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Speaker 1: was like, the schedule is so intense during football season

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Speaker 1: for all of us for various reasons, right and for me. Thursdays,

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Speaker 1: I'm up early. I'm doing research for this podcast, recording

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Speaker 1: a hit for FanDuel TV early in the morning. Then

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Speaker 1: I do more research than we record this, then we

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Speaker 1: would do Action Island an hour after this for fan Duel.

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Speaker 1: Then later that day I'm doing a podcast with Cowherd.

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Speaker 1: I said to my wife, it just feels like tomorrow's

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Speaker 1: the last day of school, you know, because things slow

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Speaker 1: down so much, and I'm just devastated the party is are.

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Speaker 1: I feel like next week. It really feels that way,

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Speaker 1: Like we always joke about the week before the week

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Speaker 1: of the super Bowl. It's um, that's really really when

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Speaker 1: it hits me. But I would say the amount of

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Speaker 1: free time is shocking. You could literally go, like I

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Speaker 1: think you just touched on. You go into like a

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Speaker 1: five six month comb of just you know, you're just

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Speaker 1: working either working, you're doing whatever, and you're personal life,

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Speaker 1: but there is no free time. There's always something going on.

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Speaker 1: And I had that on Tuesday af of our show.

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Speaker 1: Usually I gotta go back, get back to work, run

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Speaker 1: more lines, make more calls, and I just got done,

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Speaker 1: like I have nothing to do. There's really nothing to do. So,

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Speaker 1: as you know, Chad, this this week a lot of noise,

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Speaker 1: a lot of conversation just because it's four teams left.

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Speaker 1: So we joked about like I know what you're talking

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Speaker 1: about the teams last week, where this week, obviously we're

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Speaker 1: about to just do a little bit of a deep

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Speaker 1: dive into each team and talk about what we're feeling.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's fun if you're a fan of the

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Speaker 1: last four teams. I think we can all agree this

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Speaker 1: is the best four teams. I feel like we can

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Speaker 1: all agree on that. Um, that's rare and football. I mean,

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Speaker 1: last year we had to four seeds in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: This year feels more like it is what it should be.

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Speaker 1: It's a one a one seed of three seed and

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Speaker 1: that could have been a two seed and uh or

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Speaker 1: a one seed and it's a one seed and a

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Speaker 1: two seed that both both could have been the one

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Speaker 1: seed the NFC. So um, yeah, definitely one of those

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Speaker 1: rare weeks where it's just been fun because everyone split

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Speaker 1: like there is no like, oh I had this huge

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Speaker 1: advantage here. It's it's not. No one's really puffing their

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Speaker 1: chest out this week. But it's gonna be fun breaking

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Speaker 1: down these games. Well. It's also it's really strange just

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Speaker 1: because of the line moves for the Chiefs and Bengals,

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Speaker 1: which which we're going to get into. Um, we owe

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Speaker 1: people of foxhol we owe people assignment says, we owe

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Speaker 1: people in exact decision, we owe people of big balls, uh,

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Speaker 1: and we owe people all these things. I think largely

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Speaker 1: because one of these games it was so unpredictable and

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Speaker 1: for a lot of the reasons. We talked about we're

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Speaker 1: going to get two sharp calls in a second. But

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Speaker 1: when we last spoke about these games on Tuesday, we

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Speaker 1: said we bet the Bengals plus three as soon as

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Speaker 1: it opened. On Sunday night, we bet the under fifty

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Speaker 1: one and a half in Bengals Chiefs as soon as

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Speaker 1: it opened. By the time we were talking on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: the line was Bengals minus two and a half and

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Speaker 1: the total was at forty six and a half. We

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Speaker 1: thought Wednesday would be the line of demarcation. It's when

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Speaker 1: we see the line start to move based on Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Is he practicing, is he on the field, what is

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Speaker 1: the response to the treatment, etcetera, etcetera. He was on

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Speaker 1: the field, came out in the press conference, said he

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Speaker 1: felt fine, he's gonna play. The line dropped immediately, so

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Speaker 1: it went down to Chiefs plus one. I think that

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Speaker 1: it's very possible. Hold on, I'm checking right now. In

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Speaker 1: the app Kansas City is now a one point favorite again,

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Speaker 1: so you know this one's nuts. Before we get before

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Speaker 1: we do deep dive, I would say, what sharp calls.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like sharp calls is the whole show today

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Speaker 1: because we're going to be doing everything, so we can say,

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Speaker 1: let's get to sharp calls. But I feel like whatever

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Speaker 1: you're hearing is also the conversation we should have. So

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Speaker 1: what are you hearing? Hello, I'm there, I'm talking. It's

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Speaker 1: tough because it's so many guys and groups taking positions,

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Speaker 1: Like my biggest position of this weekend, and I was

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Speaker 1: simply a hedge on the Eagles one, like I took

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Speaker 1: a really large position on the forty Niners just because

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Speaker 1: as much as I was bashing them and everything like that,

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Speaker 1: trying to get you to go on the Eagles with me,

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Speaker 1: the fort Downers are really good. Like this pretty thing,

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Speaker 1: I should put a pull out with Pretty win more

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Speaker 1: than five games the rest of his career, because this

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Speaker 1: is truly lightning in the bottle. Like I go back

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Speaker 1: and I watch it. I think we'll break it down

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Speaker 1: as we go long here. But it's just it doesn't

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Speaker 1: make sense. The numbers don't make sense, and there's just

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Speaker 1: some pros that are just simply back in the forty niners.

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Speaker 1: And on the flip side, se seventy five percent of

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Speaker 1: the guys I talked to are just terrified or Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrow like the really that was the reason and they're like,

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Speaker 1: I'm not even plugging this into a model, like I

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Speaker 1: did zero work this week. I'm just being Joe Brow

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Speaker 1: and can't fault them, Like, cannot fault them from that standpoint.

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Speaker 1: Crazy stadis like as a seven point favorite or less

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Speaker 1: a t s his last twenty. Like we joke all

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Speaker 1: the time about NEOs guys that break the matrix. He

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Speaker 1: he is, he breaks the matrix. He's out of this world.

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Speaker 1: It's the books can't catch up to it. And you know,

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Speaker 1: luckily we wrote him for most of this past year

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Speaker 1: where we didn't try to fight it. We just joined

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Speaker 1: the party because it was just it was crazy every

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Speaker 1: week undervalue things. So not shocking that so many pros

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Speaker 1: are on that one. I did think it was shocking

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Speaker 1: how many pros love the forty niners. So that's one

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Speaker 1: we'll obviously deep dive into. But yeah, like this this week,

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Speaker 1: next week, I'll be with a lot of pros, a

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Speaker 1: lot of a lot of guys who are big, big money,

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Speaker 1: big timers. Chad knows. I'm flying out to London on

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Speaker 1: Sunday to be with a bunch of guys for the

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Speaker 1: games that are like high level betters and people from Europe,

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Speaker 1: and they're just they viewed things differently than I do

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Speaker 1: because to me, I could never just blindly bet a

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Speaker 1: game like I'd have to run a model. And they're

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Speaker 1: the that just like I've seen this a thousand times.

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Speaker 1: They just know what they're doing. So it's really been

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Speaker 1: interesting the back and forth this week because the spreads

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Speaker 1: are so short. I mean, that's just how it is

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Speaker 1: in the game the world. Everyone's got a little bit

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Speaker 1: of an ego and everyone's got their opinions and view

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Speaker 1: so it's like, you know, for me, I enjoy it.

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Speaker 1: I literally just stayed on the sideline. Especially in these

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Speaker 1: group text it's just guys going back and forth super

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Speaker 1: personal stuff. I mean, bets from twenty five years ago

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Speaker 1: that guys lost houses and wives over um. It's just

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Speaker 1: it brings out the worst than people. There's only a

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Speaker 1: couple of games and we're all feeling it where the

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Speaker 1: season is almost over, so everyone's like, really not just

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Speaker 1: piste off of it. We just know the ends near,

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Speaker 1: so we're trying to soak up every little bit we

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Speaker 1: can before we all just disappear for a couple of months.

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Speaker 1: So um, this these are my favorite times, like this week,

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Speaker 1: next week, hanging out these guys, talking on these guys.

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Speaker 1: It's just especially fun after such a long season. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, we all have our opinions, right, everyone's got

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Speaker 1: their opinions, are staunching their opinions at this point, and

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Speaker 1: what you believe in, what you want to back at

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Speaker 1: this point. So um to me, that's why I love

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Speaker 1: when it comes down this final four teams here, just

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Speaker 1: because we got we got the rare, rare thing here

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Speaker 1: the first time was put out. Maybe that both spreads

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Speaker 1: were below three points in the championship games. So no

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Speaker 1: matter what, we're in for some amazing football. I feel

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Speaker 1: like we all can feel that way. Let's dig in

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Speaker 1: here a little bit. You're making me a little nervous

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Speaker 1: about our Eagles play that we both loved on Sunday

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Speaker 1: at minus two, and I still feel pretty good about it,

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Speaker 1: to be honest, even even with the pretty magic in

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Speaker 1: the bottle. Let's let's let's talk about that game first,

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Speaker 1: because because, to be honest, that may end up being

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Speaker 1: our big balls bet right because and maybe we just

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Speaker 1: declare it right now, Eagles minus two and a half

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Speaker 1: big balls better the week. I'm hearing the same thing

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Speaker 1: you are. We both loved the Eagles when the line open,

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Speaker 1: I think you got it. You got at it up

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Speaker 1: to two. I got it at two. We still like

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Speaker 1: it at two and a half. A lot of guys

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Speaker 1: have a power raider to three. But look, Nick Giffin

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Speaker 1: went on Green Dot Daily earlier this week. He's one

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Speaker 1: of our brilliant analytics minds. He had all these reasons

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Speaker 1: why the Niners are probably a better team than the

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Speaker 1: Eagles dv O A wise, schedule, wise, performance wise. Here's

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Speaker 1: my thing. That's why I still feel confident about the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles still haven't lost. When Jordan Davis and Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts play, the Eagles pass rush is historically dominant. Brock

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Speaker 1: Party has been amazing also been sacked I think sixteen

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Speaker 1: times in seven games. He has a tendency to hold

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Speaker 1: the ball and not make decisions as quickly as he

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Speaker 1: could all the time, even though he's also been brilliant.

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Speaker 1: I think sixteen touchdown passes, four interceptions in those seven games.

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Speaker 1: History is against him because he's a rookie. He's the

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Speaker 1: is his third road game, and Philly is not Seattle

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Speaker 1: against Gino Smith. It's not Las Vegas where half the

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Speaker 1: stadium is going to be on your side anyways, all right,

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Speaker 1: it's fucking the fighting city of Philadelphia. You don't go

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Speaker 1: into Philly for an NFC championship game as a guy

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Speaker 1: who's played seven games in your career and essentially half

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Speaker 1: to win the game, which is what he has to

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Speaker 1: do to cover this number. I don't care. I don't

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Speaker 1: care what we've seen. I'm telling you how it is. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I know, obviously I'm all in the Eagles. Chah, there's

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Speaker 1: no there's no discuestionary there. I'm just I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: get people the perspective, um, what the pros are seeing here.

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Speaker 1: So you know what I'm getting back and forth is

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Speaker 1: kind of how it means you feel sometimes where these

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Speaker 1: lines are fucking bullshit, Like this line does not make sense?

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Speaker 1: Two and a half? What what in the world? How

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Speaker 1: is how is Brock not at three three and a

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Speaker 1: half yet? So I know the pros that are holding

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Speaker 1: at three and holding it two and a half, I

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Speaker 1: should say, like they're they they're darre in these books

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Speaker 1: to go to three. That's how strongly they feel about

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Speaker 1: this Fort and IROs team. Where I just keep throwing

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Speaker 1: that history in their face, like there's a reason no

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Speaker 1: rookie has ever won the championship game in this long

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Speaker 1: history we have with the NFL. There's something about it

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Speaker 1: that that pressure is real, and the tape in the

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Speaker 1: book is out all the guys by this point, right,

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Speaker 1: we know that. So the reason these pros love party

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Speaker 1: is he doesn't know what the hell he's in. Yet

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Speaker 1: they're all in an agreeance that like this kid, I

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Speaker 1: don't they think he doesn't get it that he's like

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Speaker 1: playing in the football league and every guy he's playing

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Speaker 1: against is better. I mean, it's you can't wrap your

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Speaker 1: head around because this could play to Iowa State. So

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Speaker 1: say at Iowa State, he played against whatever it was Iowa,

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Speaker 1: the best guy in Iowa that he ever played against

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Speaker 1: in his life. On defense, it's probably on special teams

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Speaker 1: on the in an NFL team. That's the level he's

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Speaker 1: gone from Iowa State in a year from last year

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Speaker 1: to where he's at now. That's a high of the

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Speaker 1: level is So that's why I like the Shanahan Coach

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Speaker 1: of the Year there. I'm so abstaunching it where it's

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Speaker 1: like we can't wrap our head around it because we

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Speaker 1: have such high expectations for this foreign team. It's mry

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Speaker 1: irrelevant seven and oh in the NFC Championship game. That's

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Speaker 1: why I like chat. I feel like I should be

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Speaker 1: putting in my life savings on this game with the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: In what world does this kid go on the road

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Speaker 1: Like you just talked about, I feel like we feel

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Speaker 1: like we're being pumped. If the wise guys are saying

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Speaker 1: they love San Francisco, it's almost like they're fucking with us,

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Speaker 1: But they're not like they they're just like they think

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Speaker 1: like a lot of people think where the Eagles. They

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Speaker 1: haven't played a defense like this foreign as defense and

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Speaker 1: a defense that actually is showing so many holes in

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Speaker 1: the secondary against the past that it's like it was

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Speaker 1: fucking cheese. Their strength is the run, and that's that's

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Speaker 1: what people people think this Eagues team without the run.

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Speaker 1: And I'm just one thing I think they're underestimating. Hurts

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Speaker 1: A J. Brown, DeVante Smith, God or they're receiving options

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Speaker 1: for this Eagles team. That's the thing where it's like

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Speaker 1: a lot of back and forth and I can't counter

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Speaker 1: it because of exactly what they're saying. Where the Eagles defense,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, say they have given up three or

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Speaker 1: four games over thirty points, the ft Nanciers have only

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Speaker 1: done it twice all year, and I go back on them,

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Speaker 1: that's because of their scheduling, the QBS they faced. And

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Speaker 1: that's what this week is. It's like a lot of

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Speaker 1: people making opinions, drawing lines, and I feel like we're

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Speaker 1: reading this one right where the forty niners, I get

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Speaker 1: the fear, like the fear of these pros going against

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Speaker 1: them because they've outperformed every metric you can set, Like

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Speaker 1: once again, it's a seventh round rookie. This is I

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Speaker 1: know you already has sent stuff to the Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 1: It's all gonna be in there, like this is. This

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Speaker 1: is truly a historical thing we're seeing right now. This

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Speaker 1: kid who's mystery I relevant. Um, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: he'll have more than five wins the rest of his career,

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Speaker 1: because you know, no one will be shocked they show

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Speaker 1: up next August and Trey Lansi plays him for that

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Speaker 1: starting rule. I mean, Treyl answer is a reason he

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Speaker 1: was the third pick overall and Purty was the seventh

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Speaker 1: round pick. But it's like he doesn't know it. Chad.

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Speaker 1: Like watching that Cowboys game, he would make two reads

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Speaker 1: and if it wasn't there, he literally would just throw

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Speaker 1: it away. Like that's veteran level understanding of I'm not

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Speaker 1: the reason we're gonna win this game. I'm the reason

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Speaker 1: we'll lose this game. So I'm just not gonna be

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Speaker 1: that reason we lose. And that was very smart and veteran.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously Shannon's in his ear telling him do

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Speaker 1: this stuff. So with this Eagles game, I can't see

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Speaker 1: him getting away with that. I just don't see the

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Speaker 1: Eagles offense sputtering. Um. We've all had our doubts about Doc.

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Speaker 1: There's no reason for us to have our doubts about

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Speaker 1: hurts like that. That his first career playoff games against

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Speaker 1: Tom Braiding the Bucks. We talked to Austin. He laid

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Speaker 1: on agging in that game. He had reads he missed.

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Speaker 1: This year we talked about he's corrected that when he

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Speaker 1: seeds that one on one with a J. Brown, he

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Speaker 1: attacks the downfield. So to me, I think the pros

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Speaker 1: are still underestimating this Eagles team. And I might be

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Speaker 1: in my words here, Chad, because the books believe it

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Speaker 1: with them. Like the books, they're all in unity here

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Speaker 1: holding this two and a half like I I have not.

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Speaker 1: I've seen one book. It was bet MGM moved to

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Speaker 1: the three um and it hung it there for I

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Speaker 1: don't say twelve hours and it went down to a

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Speaker 1: half and it has been back. So um, we're going

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Speaker 1: against the books on this one, like we we're definitely

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Speaker 1: with the public side on this one. But I think

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Speaker 1: the money will get a little closer comes Sunday because

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of pros that are just waiting.

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Speaker 1: They're waiting for the three. They're hoping the public hits

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00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 1: us up to a three and they'll take the value

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Speaker 1: on the forty niners. So to me, we already went

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Speaker 1: through the numbers. The Rookies Championship game. One of three

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Speaker 1: a TS owned four historically, they had four touchdowns passing

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Speaker 1: nine interceptions. Um. The one cover was a fourteen point dog.

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Speaker 1: So we we we love the idea of purty against

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Speaker 1: this Eagles defense and philling. When I was listening to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast earlier today with ray Bond and Stucky,

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00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 1: Raybon loved the under in this game, and ray Bond

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00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 1: has been smoking hot, And I hate when you and

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Speaker 1: Raybond don't agree with each other. But the problem is

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Speaker 1: I didn't agree with it either. We liked I think

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Speaker 1: we bet the over at forty five and a half

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00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:24,239
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. It's um now at forty six and a

334
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 1: half is the key number here? Why do I still

335
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 1: like the over here? What? Like even when when Raybond

336
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: ran through all the numbers, Yeah, and there was a

337
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 1: lot of research to back it up. Sometimes you just

338
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,600
Speaker 1: get a feeling like games aren't going to play the type.

339
00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:49,480
Speaker 1: And it's so an anthema to the way that I

340
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 1: like to think about betting games and the way that

341
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 1: I like to share information, because I don't believe your

342
00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,120
Speaker 1: emotions and feelings should be a part of this process.

343
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Speaker 1: But I just keep thinking this isn't over. I've seen

344
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 1: too much. I've seen too much evidence of the Niners

345
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 1: defense in the back half of their defense and not

346
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 1: being able to stop passing games. Well, Lucky for me,

347
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: I work with this guy. Chris. I spent a lot

348
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 1: of time with this guy, Chris, and I can pull

349
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,439
Speaker 1: up his numbers here, so he he literally had this

350
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 1: game rate at forty five point five, so that could

351
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 1: be your answer right there. He thinks it moved, so

352
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 1: he likes the value on the under. Um. I have

353
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Speaker 1: this game rate at forty seven. You can see why

354
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Speaker 1: I like the over. So it's it's one of those

355
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 1: where it's just tight, like he literally likes the under

356
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Speaker 1: to a point. Um. Looking at this matchup, I'm in

357
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Speaker 1: a holding plan agreement with you, Chad. When I first

358
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 1: saw this open, I was like, oh, that's a trap line.

359
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,800
Speaker 1: Not that every line the trap line, but like forty

360
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 1: two and a half felt right for this two matchups

361
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Speaker 1: because I am in total agreeance these are This is

362
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Speaker 1: the reason I like both these teams for the Super

363
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Speaker 1: Bowl coming up, because I just think both these defenses,

364
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 1: both these d lines are just such a nuts, just

365
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: such a eye level um compared to the other side,

366
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Speaker 1: the FC. I just don't think you can compare it.

367
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Speaker 1: I think both that everyone knows that. I mean, you look,

368
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Speaker 1: most books already hung Super Bowl lines. The four Nighters

369
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 1: and Eagles are both favorites. Now, so um, the public

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Speaker 1: might not understand it where they're just so enamorated with

371
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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, but I'm telling you, it's all about the

372
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Speaker 1: old line, D line and then you fill out with

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Speaker 1: the quarterback and then the skill position. So I was

374
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Speaker 1: shocked that they hung it at that chat next week

375
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,479
Speaker 1: that the favorites was gonna be a rookie and Purty

376
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 1: and you know, his third start in the playoffs hurts.

377
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 1: But the books are sharp. So that's my fear here

378
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 1: with this this line going with the Eagles. But on

379
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 1: the total, I haven't waiver at all. I still like

380
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,120
Speaker 1: the over, and like you just talked about forty seven,

381
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,239
Speaker 1: such a key number, I still think we're getting good

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00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: value on it. So we'll know early on, Like if

383
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 1: this Eagles team sputtering really early the game script coming

384
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 1: out doesn't work, that's a huge red flag to this over,

385
00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,200
Speaker 1: just because they're one of the best scripted t tames

386
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 1: in football this year. I mean, if you go through it,

387
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 1: they've been one of the best first half teams all

388
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: year and we've just seen it time and time again.

389
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 1: They have a nice script to start these games, and

390
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 1: there's a big difference when you go back to the

391
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 1: Eagle schedule, there's very telling signs of if they sputter,

392
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 1: and the other team usually sputters as well. Honestly, like

393
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 1: Eagle's defense is usually pretty get in the first half,

394
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 1: it's the second half their defense kind of lets down.

395
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 1: You could probably wait and see what we can get live,

396
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: but to me, if you can still get the forty

397
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 1: sixty five and a half, you gotta grab you over.

398
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,520
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Speaker 1: org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with

427
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 1: it in Indiana, k S Gambling help dot com in

428
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 1: Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in

429
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 1: Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope, n Y. Or

430
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 1: text Hope, n Y. In New York, Tennessee. Redline is

431
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: one eight hundred eight eight nine eight nine one eight

432
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 1: hundred five to two hundred in Wyoming, or visit www.

433
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: One eight hundred gambler dot net. In West Virginia, Patrick

434
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:50,199
Speaker 1: Mahomes heroically walked to a press conference, heroically walked away

435
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: and looked like he was playing skipped to Mulu on

436
00:22:54,840 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 1: the practice field. He's Superman. He's got the reginitive skills, talent,

437
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 1: DNA of that you know snake that loses its tail

438
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: and then regrows its tail immediately. The guys fucked, and

439
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 1: he's playing in an injury that takes six months to

440
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 1: heal and he's doing it in six days. The line

441
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: has been whacky. Do as it stands now forty seven

442
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: and a half. I think we still like the under

443
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: Chiefs minus one? What the fund do we do here?

444
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: I know exactly what I want to do. I'm interest

445
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,639
Speaker 1: hear what you want to do, But how am I

446
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: not going to take the Chiefs? I've just been waiting

447
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 1: to see how he looked, how he's moving maybe I'm

448
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,959
Speaker 1: a sucker because like him, him jogging down those steps,

449
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 1: to me was actually a big deal because that was

450
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,679
Speaker 1: truly not thinking about his ankle at the press conference.

451
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: I know it sounds stupid, but like going down the steps,

452
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 1: he's not thinking about his next step. He's simply jogging

453
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 1: down the steps like its routine and out the door

454
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: and then you do it. You saw him do it.

455
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: Stretches and he was full participant. I don't know what

456
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: to think, Chad, because like the early line movement to

457
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 1: me was smart money. Get an info that this is

458
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: worse than they're letting on, right, Like that was a

459
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: huge swing through a bunch of key numbers. They moved

460
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,160
Speaker 1: it from plus three all the way to a two

461
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: and a half on the Chief side. So if he

462
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: looks the way he looks, the numbers should be back

463
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 1: to three. But the books are like in this weird

464
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 1: spot now where it's like they really got hit hard

465
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: on that two and a half, Like they got a

466
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 1: lot of good, big money on that two and a half.

467
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: Still yeah, Chiefs two and a half plus two and

468
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 1: a half. Still though all the money and all the

469
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 1: tickets are mainly still in the Bengals. That's how much

470
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: early money came in on them. So the lineman doesn't

471
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 1: really make sense to me. It should be back to three.

472
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 1: That's that's where it should be at. If my homes

473
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,719
Speaker 1: is he able to move in the pocket, which everything

474
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 1: I've seen of, if he can stay on his tippy toes,

475
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: he's good like that's that's that's where he that's where

476
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: he excels. He's he's on the he's on his toes

477
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: where he can move in the pockets so smoothly and practice.

478
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: That's what he was literally doing. So um, all we

479
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: can go off of his beat writers and a little

480
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: bit of insight sources we have, and everything I hear

481
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 1: was it was bad when it happened, right, And it's

482
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: one of those things too where he was scared to

483
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: even put weight on it because it just didn't feel

484
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 1: right to him. And as the game went along and

485
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,479
Speaker 1: the drilline took over, he was like, Okay, I'm more

486
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: comfortable now. But then they figured after the game it

487
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: would be in a real bad spot, it'd be all

488
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: swollen up. But we know the technology we have nowadays.

489
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 1: They put that whatever he's something one of those bead

490
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 1: things that like is good for your body, and then

491
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: put different types of graps yeah and zero hot cold

492
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: and all this different crap, and it's like the man's

493
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 1: jogging two three days later, it's it's mind blood. So

494
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: I was prepared to take since like a one legged

495
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 1: Mahomes against arguably the best QB and football right now

496
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 1: and Burrow. I would have backed Burrow, but my Homes

497
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,239
Speaker 1: is able to play fully. I love him in this

498
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: spot where he's going through against Burrow and what are

499
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: they calling it yet, burrowhead. They're calling arrowhead burrowhead. Even

500
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: the players on Sincius and like I listened to um

501
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 1: shout out to the Kelsey Boys podcast, Travis Kelsey was

502
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: talking about they're talking about that in the locker room.

503
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: He's like, they know. So I love this game. I

504
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: hate that I'm going so chalk, going both one seeds,

505
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 1: both home teams. But I love the Chiefs. I love

506
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Oh man, it's so tough because Bros so

507
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 1: damn good. I hate going against him, but it's it's

508
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: this number should be three and it's not. So I'm

509
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: gonna take the value right now and on my Homes

510
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 1: we bettered at plus three for the Bengals on Sunday night.

511
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 1: I bought a little bit back on the Chiefs at

512
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: plus two and a half. I wish I did. I

513
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 1: got the one and a half because I needed to

514
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: see it. I told you I needed to see it

515
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: because I was hearing so much noise of like they're overrating.

516
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: He's fine. He was supposedly up the next day, lightly

517
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 1: jogging in his neighborhood. It's like I needed to see it.

518
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 1: There's too much bullshit flying around this time of year.

519
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, good for you. Goodbye you hitting that two

520
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: and a half because that's such a key number. Yeah,

521
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. So I feel really good about

522
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: my position there. I've still bet I bet more on

523
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 1: the Bengals at plus three that I did on the

524
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: Chiefs of plus two and a half, so I still

525
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: come out a loser. If if you know the Chiefs

526
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: win by more than three, I think you're right. Like

527
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 1: if it's if you're basically getting Chiefs to win at home,

528
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,400
Speaker 1: that's that's what you gotta play. Yeah, there, you have

529
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: no options, so frustrating, such a challenging game, its brutal.

530
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 1: What are we thinking about the under right now? Forty

531
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: seven and a half still feel good because it feels

532
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 1: like the way you win this game is one side,

533
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: lane and egg. Like I we're all hoping for the

534
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 1: ultimate shootout, right, But me and Chad don't bet that way.

535
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: We we we play the percentages, and we play the

536
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: numbers we've been down and your read outdoors playoff game

537
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: at home, it's just above a six percent in his career,

538
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: even when this is including his time at the Eagles.

539
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: So this is just a number of position. We will

540
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 1: take the rest of our lives as long as and

541
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 1: you reads the head coach, he's an offensive genius. The

542
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 1: public knows that they will always bet the over. Me

543
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 1: and Chad will always take the other side. Um, not blindly.

544
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 1: It's all about the matchups, right. I know for a

545
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,679
Speaker 1: fact we're both on the over last year Bill's Chiefs

546
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 1: game that was at Arrowhead. But in this matchup, I

547
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: just I gotta take the under, so um hoping it

548
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: gets up the forty eight and a half. I did

549
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: throw a little more on the forty seven and a

550
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: half when I got there. I just think the public

551
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: as a week will go along. I just see them

552
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: betting the over. It's just the my homes effect like

553
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: you said, would open that you you gotta have fifty

554
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 1: three or something a little in between there, right, four

555
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: day and a half would make more sense. Forty nine

556
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: and a half would make sense. I don't. I don't

557
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: see it getting back up to fifty one, but I

558
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 1: could see it keep keep rising a little bit as

559
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: a public will come in here on this over um.

560
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought the only game I flipball was

561
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: this one. I thought I would flip back to the

562
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: Chiefs if my homes um looked the way he did.

563
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 1: I just did not see him looking as good as

564
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 1: he did, Like this was truly mine. But from what

565
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: I saw Sunday, I thought this kid would be in

566
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: a walking boot all week. Game time decision completely wrong,

567
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: like whatever. I maybe I underestimated the medical treatment, but

568
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: it was just one of those where it's just it's

569
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,479
Speaker 1: what we saw in the field, Like the kid just

570
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 1: looked completely different obviously afterwards. Um. So that that's that's

571
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: the best part of this whole week right now is

572
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: we're gonna it looks like we're gonna get a percent

573
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: of homes, which is great. Right now, of the bets

574
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 1: meeting the public are on the over of the money

575
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: is on the under. Yeah, right, it makes sense. That's

576
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 1: just a that's a that's a pro under there, because

577
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be on the over all. Right, Well, listen,

578
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: we gotta do a foxhole. Also, I want to point

579
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: out one other thing that's just amazing. We gotta do

580
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: a foxhole. We gotta do with Simon says, we gotta

581
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 1: do an exact decision. Let's do it. I mean, people

582
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: know what we're doing. Yeah, so why don't why don't

583
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: we do? Simon says, first, and then I'll do exact

584
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 1: decision and then we can settle on our foxhold. I

585
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: gotta just be a man. I just gotta pick side.

586
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: So we did big balls for the Eagles, I'll do

587
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: Simon says, grab that, my homes. You can get it

588
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: at pick right now, or get it at the minus one.

589
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: We do what science exact decision. Chad is going, Oh

590
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: my god, I am so torn between the under forty

591
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: seven and a half, which makes me nervous just because

592
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: it's not the number I like, or the over forty

593
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: six and a half, which makes me nervous because it

594
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: is a fucking gut bet that's it. Betty Betting's hard, brother,

595
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: betting is hard. I'm going with the under forty seven

596
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: and a half for the Bengals and the Chiefs. The

597
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 1: choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you happy?

598
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 1: Exept decision? And then I think our foxhole should be

599
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: the over. Yeah, and the Eagles. You know me, regardless

600
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit

601
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a

602
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: foxhole guy. The mix of a foxhole big ball because

603
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: this this this takes balls. Even Chad scared of this one.

604
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 1: I'm totally scared of this One's where once again, the

605
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: first quarter will know where're gonna be out with this

606
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 1: bet pretty quick. I totally believe it totally makes me nervous.

607
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: So to recap, the foxhole is over Eagle San Francisco,

608
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: Simon says his Chiefs minus one slash pick exact decision

609
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: is under forty seven and a half since the k C,

610
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: I do think you should wait on it, by the way,

611
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: because I do think that's gonna go up a little bit.

612
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: I'm hoping. And then the big balls as Eagles minus

613
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: two and a half. Motherfucker. It's not like gust In

614
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: the year in the not in the year, you know

615
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: what I mean. I have two favorites head into the

616
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: Super Bowl weekend. But last year at this point we

617
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: had the Bengals three and a half and we had

618
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: the three and a half and one covered and one

619
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: one outright. So this year, hope we're going for two

620
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: for two, both winners outright. Here's the schedule for the

621
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: next couple of weeks, a lot of Super Bowl betting content.

622
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: On Tuesday. Next Tuesday one, we'll do our initial Super

623
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: Bowl betting preview. You and I from England, live from England.

624
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: That's why for for those who are listening and those

625
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: who listen on AMP, we were doing all this Manchester,

626
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: England band stuff after the show was over. That is

627
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 1: because Simon will be in uh, Northern England for part

628
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: of the week that he's uh that he's across the pond.

629
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 1: On the second, February two, we've got Matthew Friedman, former

630
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 1: Action Network star, now running Fantasy Pros. We love when

631
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: Freedman comes on the podcast. Evan Abrahams, director of research,

632
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: who we reference constantly. You can see him on Green

633
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 1: Dot daily regularly. You can hear him on the Action

634
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: Network Pod Tuesday February seven, one of our best shows

635
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 1: of the year with two of the biggest stars in

636
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: the Action Network universe. Super Bowl Props with Chris Raybone

637
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: and Sean Kerner. Don't miss it Bookmarket Calendar. It put

638
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: it on the board. February nine, Super Bowl Best Bets

639
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: with Brandon Anderson, who's been doing an amazing job in

640
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Speaker 1: are Sunday Night Monday recap for Action Network. He's been

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Speaker 1: amazing all season, really smart. He's the one who tipped

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00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: everybody off to Eagles outline of minus twenty and a

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Speaker 1: half against the Giants paid off at about three and

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Speaker 1: a half to one. So that is the schedule for

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Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks. You're off to England. We're

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00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: excited for the games. This has been the Favorites podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. Download us on Apple Podcasts,

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Speaker 1: on Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribed

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Speaker 1: to leave us five stars feedback as a gift, But

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Speaker 1: listen all the way to the end, folks, until we

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Speaker 1: meet again to preview the Super Bowl four Simon Hunter format,

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Speaker 1: Mitchell and Chad Norman love you. Action Network reminds you

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