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Speaker 1: All right, here we go, spreading in the court.

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Speaker 2: Ten seconds of eynings.

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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna throw under the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket.

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Speaker 1: It's down the seven seconds. It's the croup for the wind.

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Speaker 1: God make a miracle.

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Speaker 2: I just it's the water hit, that one from the

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Speaker 2: parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Shuck it all.

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Speaker 2: In college basketball, it's not the size on the dog

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Speaker 2: in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the size of the fight in the dog. What's up,

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Speaker 1: the general nation? Welcome to Big Bets on Campus. I'm

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Speaker 1: stucky in Joining me today is my new college basketball

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Speaker 1: co host, PJ Cunningham. I'm gonna talk college basketball for

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Speaker 1: this weekend, including Friday and Saturday. We'll talk some season

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Speaker 1: long futures, a lot of new segments to get to PJ.

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Speaker 1: What's going on.

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Speaker 2: Not much stuck here. I know a lot of listeners,

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Speaker 2: loyal listeners the Big Bets on Campus podcasts are probably

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Speaker 2: expecting Colin Wilson and his beautiful, velvety voice. But you guys,

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Speaker 2: I guess, are stuck with me for this college basketball season.

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Speaker 2: And hopefully I can provide you know, some of the

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Speaker 2: analysis that Colin has in the past, but hopefully we

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Speaker 2: can help make you guys some money from now until March.

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Speaker 2: Woo Pig Suey.

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Speaker 1: Colin's a one trick pony anyway, he knows artis on

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Speaker 1: basketball and that's it. But Colin will probably be stopping.

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Speaker 1: We'll have some guests throughout the year, will cover certain conferences,

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Speaker 1: will cover futures. Of course, almost on a weekly basis.

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Speaker 1: Three Man Weave, who do our Wednesday weekly episode, will

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Speaker 1: continue to do so. We'll have them on every Friday,

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Speaker 1: or when we record on Thursday, comes out on Friday

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Speaker 1: as part of our Friday Night six pack, just like

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Speaker 1: we did last year. If some of you remember that,

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Speaker 1: this week, we'll just give you what they had for

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Speaker 1: Friday night they didn't have a chance to record, but

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Speaker 1: that we will be back to status quo next week. Jah.

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Speaker 1: For those of you that aren't familiar with your off,

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Speaker 1: why don't you give a quick background on you and

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Speaker 1: then where you're from and me and most importantly who

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Speaker 1: your who your team is in college of basketball.

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Speaker 2: I am born and raised and still live in the

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Speaker 2: great state of Iowa, so die hard Hawkeye fan, football, basketball, everything.

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Speaker 2: Little background. I started with the Action Network right around

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Speaker 2: the middle of twenty twenty, when sports started coming back.

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Speaker 2: I work on a couple, you know, a couple of

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Speaker 2: different sports here, you know, I do a soccer podcast

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Speaker 2: for us here at the Action Network as well. But

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm really excited to be honest with you

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Speaker 2: with a legend like yourself.

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Speaker 1: You're Stuckey, are too kind. So speaking of Iowa basketball,

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Speaker 1: it's it's very bizarre that I want to It's I

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Speaker 1: wonder if it's frustrating or you're just used to it.

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Speaker 1: You have Iowa football, it's like great defense, subpar offense,

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Speaker 1: and then basketball once again, it looks like we have

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Speaker 1: a classic friend team. We have great offense and you know,

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Speaker 1: not so great defense.

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Speaker 2: That's that's unfortunate, but it's the reality of the situation.

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Speaker 1: I'll be able to handle this. Mary looks like he's

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's a hell of a player. Is this

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Speaker 1: the same old Iowa? What is the ceiling? Are you

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Speaker 1: really excited about them or are you still trying to

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Speaker 1: get over last year's disappointment? Where you standing with them?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, last year was supposed to be, you know, basically

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Speaker 2: the best team in my lifetime in Iowa and they

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Speaker 2: couldn't even get to the sweet sixteens. A two seats.

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Speaker 2: That was really disappointing. But no, this team is really

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Speaker 2: fun to watch. They're young. Obviously, Keigan Murray is an

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Speaker 2: incredible score. I don't know if he's still leading the

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Speaker 2: country in points per game. But it's an Iowa team

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Speaker 2: that they can press you. They play quick, they play tempo.

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Speaker 2: Obviously their defense is not that good. They'll be happy

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Speaker 2: with the Sweet sixteen birth. But other than that, you know,

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Speaker 2: like you said, it's just another classic Fran team where

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Speaker 2: we'll pull off some upsets at home. We'll you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll get close against some of the big the big

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Speaker 2: boys on the road and everything like that and not

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Speaker 2: be able to pull it out. But again, probably Sweet

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Speaker 2: sixteen is the ceiling for this team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's to no surprise. Iowa has been a cash

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Speaker 1: cow two over better so far each year. Before we

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Speaker 1: get to kind of a recap of what we've seen,

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Speaker 1: some of the key things you've seen this weekend for

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Speaker 1: the season, quick one minute thought on the big ten.

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Speaker 1: The biggest thing that I've taken away is just there

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Speaker 1: are some incredible individual players in the conference that who

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Speaker 1: I thought were good but are so much better than

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Speaker 1: I even thought, Like Liddell Johnny Davis Murray. I mean,

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Speaker 1: like so on a nightly basis you can catch some

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Speaker 1: unbelievable individual performances. Wisconsin has probably been the biggest positive

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Speaker 1: surprise to me, mainly just because of the explosion of

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Speaker 1: Johnny Gis. This kid wasn't I think he was like

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Speaker 1: it wasn't like he was like a highly talented recruit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is what he's doing is spectacular. And

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Speaker 1: then the biggest disappointment has to be Michigan and just

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Speaker 1: their defense has fallen off a cliff. They just look lost.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously Wagner and company, some of the players

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Speaker 1: that they lost were much more important than I personally thought,

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Speaker 1: because I didn't I thought Michigan wasn't take a step back,

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Speaker 1: but not this much of a step back. Any any

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Speaker 1: any thoughts you would have had for the big ten at.

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Speaker 2: Whole, Well, you know, obviously Johnny Davis, I think he's

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Speaker 2: the favorite now to win the Wooden Award, which is

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Speaker 2: kind of crazy to show. I don't know what he

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Speaker 2: was preseason, but you know it. Obviously, like you mentioned that,

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Speaker 2: Michigan has been a massive disappointment, especially defensively in the

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Speaker 2: half court. They look like you said, they look lost.

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Speaker 2: I just you know, in my grain, in my mind

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Speaker 2: is when they went to UCF and just got you know,

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Speaker 2: pasted by them in Orlando. That was really telling the

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Speaker 2: team that's kind of starting to come on as Illinois.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're the favorite to win the Big Ten

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Speaker 2: right now. I think they're sitting about three to one.

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Speaker 2: I don't think you know, they're obviously not really one

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Speaker 2: of the favorites, but sitting around you know, twenty to

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Speaker 2: one to begin the season and now they've actually dropped lower,

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Speaker 2: even though they're you know five and oh to start.

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Speaker 2: They have Michigan on Friday and then a huge game

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Speaker 2: against Purdue on Monday. Coburn looks great. You know, they've

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Speaker 2: had they've dealt with some injuries early on in the season.

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Speaker 2: Carvello has been ouncedince November twenty third. When he comes back.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're an incredible three point shooting team. I

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Speaker 2: think they're fifteenth in the country in three point percentage.

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Speaker 2: With Coburn getting all the attention down low, Illinois able

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Speaker 2: to knock down a ton of threes around you know,

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Speaker 2: nine and a half ten a game. So if they

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Speaker 2: have a good run here down the stretch, they can

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Speaker 2: potentially be at one or two seat, just like they

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Speaker 2: were last year and we all thought they were one

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Speaker 2: of the best teams in the country and then lost

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Speaker 2: to loyal Chicago in the second round. So this team

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Speaker 2: could you know, kind of flip expectations and be kind

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Speaker 2: of under the radar going to March and maybe make

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Speaker 2: a deep run rather than just being you know, expectations

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Speaker 2: through the roof. So they're a team I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: watching and I think that, you know, come March, we

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Speaker 2: might be being like, you know, you know Illinois, you know,

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Speaker 2: they could definitely make a run again.

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Speaker 1: I'm still mad at Illinois for last year. That was

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Speaker 1: my big future and now I'm watching I'd like turn

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Speaker 1: on Sports Center. It's like highlights of the Bulls and

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Speaker 1: I like playing so well and I'm like, you were there.

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Speaker 1: We had the team last year, Michigan State as it

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Speaker 1: was sitting at five. And I'm still not a full

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Speaker 1: believer in Michigan State. But you know, Izoe will have

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Speaker 1: them in the mix. I mean, Illinois just lights out,

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Speaker 1: lights out from beyond the arc. That team can shoot.

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Speaker 1: Be interesting to see what happens when Corbello comes back

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Speaker 1: where he just wasn't great early in the year, turnover issues,

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Speaker 1: they just seemed to be something missing chemistry wise. When

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Speaker 1: he's in the lineup, obviously having him back it up,

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Speaker 1: I think you bring him off the bench as a spark,

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Speaker 1: but it'll be interesting to see how with the lineup

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Speaker 1: dynamic when he comes back. I think he was just

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Speaker 1: clear to practice today. You have Ohio State. Obviously with Ladell,

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Speaker 1: they can get some key pieces back over time. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna be dangerous. Wisconstant with Davis and their defense. Their

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Speaker 1: defensive numbers are elite. And then you had you know,

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Speaker 1: you have Davis who can explode on the offensive side

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Speaker 1: of the ball. They're clearly dangerous. I don't trust the

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Speaker 1: Indiana guards of the Rutgers offense. Purdue is a team

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Speaker 1: that I still have power rated. I believe, yeah, I

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Speaker 1: still have Purdue powered it as the best team in

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Speaker 1: the Big Ten, But I have questions coming into the year.

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Speaker 1: I was like, this team is elite. This team is

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Speaker 1: a top five team, no doubt now this year, and

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Speaker 1: we can we can kind of transition this into bigger

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Speaker 1: takeaways from this week in this season this year. Last

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Speaker 1: year it was okay, Baylor and good Zaga and then

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Speaker 1: a big drop off. And that doesn't necessarily mean that

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be your national title, but it worked out

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Speaker 1: that way, and there was two clear There was two

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Speaker 1: teams that were clearly above the rest. This year, It's

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Speaker 1: not like that Gonzaga is not as great. They're still

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Speaker 1: a top five, Baylor is not as great. I don't

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Speaker 1: think the gap is smaller, and the amount of teams

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Speaker 1: that I think potentially can win the national title is larger.

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Speaker 1: But Purdue was for me solid in that top five.

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Speaker 1: But I've now had questions about some questions about their

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Speaker 1: defense and their turnover issues. You've seen teams I believe

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Speaker 1: Iowa when Iowa was behind against someone started depressing them

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Speaker 1: and then almost came back because they started turning it over.

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Speaker 1: So I do have questions about produce. So let's go

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Speaker 1: into the futures right now before we get to takeaway

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Speaker 1: from here.

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Speaker 2: Here's the thing about the future. Every time you look

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Speaker 2: at it, the changes because you looked at it.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any futures right now? If so, who?

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Speaker 1: And then are there any teams that you would target

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Speaker 1: if anyone is out there looking to add to their portfolio?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I just bought a team this week. I bought

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Speaker 2: Villanove at twenty five to one. What I wanted to

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Speaker 2: do was kind of go back and look, Okay, what's

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Speaker 2: the DNA of a national championship? What are some trends?

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Speaker 2: You know looking at Ken Palm data, you know what

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Speaker 2: what has happened or what has allowed you know, somebody

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Speaker 2: to be a national champion. So since two thousand and

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Speaker 2: two Ken Palm, when they first started tracking data, they

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Speaker 2: there has been only three teams in nineteen years that

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Speaker 2: have won the national championship and finished outside the top

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Speaker 2: ten in adjusted offensive efficiency. And I'm gonna ask you

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Speaker 2: a trivia question right now. Can you name the three

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Speaker 2: and I'll give you hints. One team did it twice

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Speaker 2: in the early twenty tens.

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Speaker 1: So you're saying adjusted offensive efficiency outs.

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Speaker 2: Like outside the top ten overall or before the tournament overall,

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Speaker 2: to end the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Just a word of advice, something you look when you

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Speaker 1: look at you can go on campom. You can always

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Speaker 1: filter to before the tournament, because what happens is if

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Speaker 1: you win it, like you're gonna have six games. We

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Speaker 1: obviously played really well. So another way to look at

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Speaker 1: it is like all right, who were the teams before

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Speaker 1: the tournament, But I would say it had one of

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Speaker 1: them has to be. One of them has to be Yukon.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they actually did it twice in both of their championships.

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Speaker 1: If you look like pre tournament teams that were if

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Speaker 1: you look at their adjusted offensi efficiency and adjust the

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Speaker 1: defensi efficiency. One other rule of thumb is you basically

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Speaker 1: cannot be if you add both together, you basically cannot

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Speaker 1: be over fifty. Right. So if your defensive efficiency was

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Speaker 1: fifty two and your offensive ficiity was two, right, that's

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Speaker 1: like there's a there's a red flag there on your defense.

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Speaker 1: Or if like your offense and defense are like thirty

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Speaker 1: and twenty eight, it's like, well neither one as a

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Speaker 1: lead and not right. It's very general and broad. But

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Speaker 1: Yukon is I think the only exception to that fifty rule.

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Speaker 1: They were at like fifty five. I think that was

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Speaker 1: the team where Kemba just went got in and just

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Speaker 1: went bonkers.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, it was Kemba and Shabbaz in twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 2: So basically it was just they had one dominant score

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Speaker 2: that they just rode through the championship.

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Speaker 1: The third team, so I would say it's probably it's

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Speaker 1: probably Meloqs.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, yep, me Melocus in two thousand and three. You know,

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Speaker 2: basically just a team with an incredibly dominant scorer that

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Speaker 2: they just ride through the entire tournament. It's kind of anomaly. Basically,

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Speaker 2: what I'm saying is that you know, teams that are

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Speaker 2: very low in offensive efficiency that you know, get hot

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Speaker 2: through March, they have to have an incredibly dominant scorer

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Speaker 2: that just goes crazy. You know, Villanova right now is

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Speaker 2: top twenty and both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. And

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Speaker 2: I understand that they have flaws like they're they're obviously have.

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Speaker 2: You know, they don't have a lot of size inside,

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Speaker 2: they haven't shot the three ball as well as they

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Speaker 2: should have. It's this is more purely of like a

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Speaker 2: numbers play. Villanova's schedule going forward. They've already played Xavier twice.

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Speaker 2: They've played a really, really tough non conference schedule. I

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Speaker 2: think that they are number one on Ken Palm in

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Speaker 2: their opponent adjusted offensive efficiency, so they basically played you know,

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Speaker 2: cumulusly the best offenses in the country so far, toughest opponents.

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Speaker 2: They have two games against Yukon and then a home

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Speaker 2: game against Seaton Hall and that's pretty much it. And

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Speaker 2: they're going to face basically teams outside the top forty

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Speaker 2: in the Ken Palm rankings. So it's not crazy, like

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Speaker 2: you said, we could be sitting here at the end

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Speaker 2: of the season those two that big two big wins

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Speaker 2: against Xavier, you know, obviously a big win against I

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Speaker 2: believe Tennessee earlier in the season. Villanova could be sitting

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Speaker 2: at a one seed and be sitting at you know, twelve,

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Speaker 2: ten to one by the time we reach March, with

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Speaker 2: how easy their schedule is going forward. So I don't

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Speaker 2: really think you're going to get a better number. I

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Speaker 2: think twenty five to one is available at bet MGM

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Speaker 2: right now. I don't think you're gonna get a better

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Speaker 2: number on j Wright squad than right now. I understand

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Speaker 2: they have laws, but based on the number, I do

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Speaker 2: like villanover right now.

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Speaker 1: No, I don't. I don't mind that at all, and

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Speaker 1: you give Jay right on your side. I do think

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Speaker 1: it is it's the right time to buy them. They

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Speaker 1: obviously have figured out something since that back to back

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Speaker 1: they lost back to back games to Baylor and Creighton

276
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Speaker 1: just got blown out, and since you know, then they

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Speaker 1: easily beat Xavier, they beat seed Hall, they come back

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Speaker 1: and beat Creighton by thirty five, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: win at zero. I don't care. Look, I had some zer.

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Speaker 1: I don't care if you have. They had a little

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Speaker 1: bit of shot luck, Like going to Sintos and winning

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Speaker 1: at Xavier is not easy against this team. So uh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you have Jay right in your pocket, and looking at

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Speaker 1: the schedule, there's a chance that you're gonna have a

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Speaker 1: one seed. The pieces are there, and especially in this year,

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Speaker 1: so I don't mind that at all. So yeah, for

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Speaker 1: my future, I have one future and one future only

288
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Speaker 1: right now, and it's Kentucky. And I bought it before

289
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Speaker 1: the year and it was actually a really exciting moment

290
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Speaker 1: for me because and you can find them at twenty

291
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Speaker 1: two one now, which is better than what I have.

292
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Speaker 1: I have twenty to one and Tom eighteen to one.

293
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Speaker 1: I might add some, but I've never like I live

294
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Speaker 1: in Lexington, I'm an adopted Kentucky fan. My wife went there.

295
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Speaker 1: You know, our bars does well when Kentucky's winning. All

296
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Speaker 1: of our friends are Kentucky fans. But I bet I've

297
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Speaker 1: never bet Kentucky. I always think Kentucky's overvalue from a

298
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Speaker 1: future's perspective. But this year I really genuinely liked them

299
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Speaker 1: in the Cal Revenge Tour, and I loved all the

300
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Speaker 1: pieces that they got, And I didn't even think that

301
00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:32,360
Speaker 1: by this point they would be as good as they

302
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,800
Speaker 1: were or as flashed as much potential as they have,

303
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,120
Speaker 1: because Cal's had these teams different than this in that

304
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,200
Speaker 1: there are a lot of times they're, you know, all

305
00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,440
Speaker 1: five star freshmen that he assembles, and then you got

306
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,920
Speaker 1: to figure out the right rotations, the right mix of

307
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Speaker 1: all right, who's gonna play win and how much? And

308
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Speaker 1: then generally, if you look back, these Kentucky teams don't

309
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Speaker 1: have like a strug. They'll struggle a little bit in December, remember,

310
00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 1: and figured out and then Cal basically just working to

311
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 1: peak towards March, and with all of the incoming transfer

312
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,480
Speaker 1: talent mixed in with some of the younger child Knucket,

313
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Speaker 1: I thought that they had the pieces to be a

314
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 1: clear top five team come March, you know, and you

315
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Speaker 1: throw in a guy like Sibwe, who is going to

316
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Speaker 1: keep you in any He's just he's going to keep

317
00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 1: you in any game if you are having an off

318
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,720
Speaker 1: shooting night, you know, twenty he can get twenty five

319
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 1: thirty rebounds like that is that is the cheat code.

320
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,440
Speaker 1: And I love the addition of Grady. I've liked what

321
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,600
Speaker 1: I've seen from Kentucky so far. They lost to LG

322
00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 1: because everyone got hurt and went down. They should have

323
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,560
Speaker 1: won that game. They're up to eight already and Ken

324
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 1: Pump I didn't think they'd be here already, and you

325
00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,960
Speaker 1: could still get them twenty two to one. And I

326
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Speaker 1: love how deep. And I think the best conference in

327
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Speaker 1: college basketball this year is the SEC, so Kentucky will

328
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Speaker 1: be battle tested come March. But I really like that

329
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Speaker 1: roster as of now. That's the only future that I

330
00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,520
Speaker 1: have in that twenty five to one range. If you

331
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Speaker 1: get fined, really good number. And kudos to you if

332
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,160
Speaker 1: you've already had these teams from rowning this season. The

333
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 1: two teams that I've been most impressed with are Arizona

334
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 1: and Auburn so far this year. I mean those those

335
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,560
Speaker 1: are the two teams that have shot up my power

336
00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:20,880
Speaker 1: ratings that I that look like they are legit national

337
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 1: title contenders without many weaknesses. Obviously, Baylor and go Zag

338
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:26,840
Speaker 1: are going to be in the mix. Some of the

339
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 1: Houston injuries have have hurt them. I've had some more

340
00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 1: questions about Purdue, LSU will get to I'm not a

341
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:37,560
Speaker 1: believer in them winning at all. But yeah, Arizona, Auburn, Kentucky.

342
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 1: But Kentucky is the only one that I've been invested

343
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 1: in so far.

344
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with you. The SEC is gonna be

345
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,400
Speaker 2: fascinating going forward. You know, they're like you said, there

346
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:48,320
Speaker 2: are so many, so many good teams in the SEC

347
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 2: right now. That Auburn Alabama game was fantastic. I believe

348
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,560
Speaker 2: that was on was that Wednesday or Tuesday. You're just

349
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 2: gonna get games like that pretty much every single week,

350
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,160
Speaker 2: every single week. And we have a great one, you know,

351
00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,080
Speaker 2: on Saturday Tennessee Kentucky. So yeah, but I agree with

352
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 2: the Arizona's biggest surprise in one of those teams that

353
00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 2: definitely got to keep watching. You know, the futures market,

354
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 2: if they kind of slip up against UCLA or USC

355
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,040
Speaker 2: and you can get a dip and get them down

356
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:11,879
Speaker 2: at twenty to one, that's probably a good price to

357
00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:13,200
Speaker 2: buy them at.

358
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Speaker 1: The recap of the week. That was two quick things.

359
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,600
Speaker 1: Don't believe. I don't believe anymore in any of the

360
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,160
Speaker 1: COVID news from what coaches say. I've heard these coaches

361
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 1: where we stay were crushed by COVID. This is a

362
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,200
Speaker 1: hospital room where you know, we have medics that might

363
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 1: have to administer ivs. And then like this happened with

364
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,959
Speaker 1: Leon Rice and Boise State last night. I thought half

365
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 1: the team was are gonna play I bet Nevada. It

366
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,080
Speaker 1: came out plus one I have I'm like, how is

367
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 1: this plus one and a half with with Boise in

368
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 1: a er? And then you know the line moves like

369
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 1: six points and then Boise comes out completely healthy, ready

370
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,720
Speaker 1: to roll and rot. So I think a lot of

371
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 1: these coaches are just they say this is like kind

372
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 1: of it's like armor, so like if things are going poor,

373
00:17:57,520 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 1: it's kind of like you're insurance in like, hey, well

374
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 1: we're in to COVID with your all things. I think

375
00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:05,479
Speaker 1: COVID pause things went poorly. So yeah, My biggest takeaway

376
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,159
Speaker 1: so far of this week is that like, I just

377
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 1: can't trust the coach speaking for the season. It's you

378
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 1: just have to deal with it. It's awful. I'm betting

379
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 1: fewer games and lower amounts because the variance is just

380
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 1: so much higher. I mean, you could sit at six

381
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: seven o'clock at night and follow fellow friend of the podcast,

382
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,199
Speaker 1: Jordan Majuski is a great one to follow. But just

383
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 1: searching Twitter and it's just this guy's out, these three

384
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 1: key guys a out, and you can't. You don't find

385
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,800
Speaker 1: these things out, you know, a couple days ahead of time,

386
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,440
Speaker 1: Like the NFL it's it's the wild wild West, and

387
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: omicron does spread quickly based on other countries they didn't

388
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 1: get out. So hopefully this is just like a January thing.

389
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 1: It's gonna linger longer, but just where it's like this

390
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 1: crazy just higher variants. You just got to deal with it.

391
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,680
Speaker 1: You hope that it evens out over time. But other

392
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 1: than that, my main takeaway is like March is going

393
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 1: to be sick. Really to me, there's like ten to

394
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 1: twelve teams that I could see winning.

395
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 2: At all lower amounts, you know, a lot of variants.

396
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 2: You know, maybe bet less. You know, I know that

397
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 2: sucks obviously because I hate to tell somebody to have

398
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 2: less action. But it's just so difficult, you know, with

399
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 2: all these this COVID news and everything like that from

400
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,240
Speaker 2: this past week, you know, talking just strictly basketball, obviously,

401
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,440
Speaker 2: Baylor going down at home was a little shocking to

402
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 2: Texas Tech, who didn't have Shannon. I think overall for

403
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 2: the season, it's kind of funny because you know, you

404
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 2: kind of mentioned it. You know, it seemed like at

405
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 2: the beginning of the season, everybody in the talk round

406
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 2: it was this is Gonzagas titled to lose. They're the

407
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,960
Speaker 2: overwhelming favorites. You know, Timmy Speck, they got chet Holmgren,

408
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 2: nev Hard Receive, Bolton comes over from Iowa State. It's

409
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,120
Speaker 2: just a really complete team that you question, is anybody

410
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: going to compete with their size and their scoring and

411
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 2: everything like that. Well then they go to Las Vegas

412
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 2: as Nate and half point favorite, and they lose to Duke.

413
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,440
Speaker 2: And then their next big test they play Alabama and

414
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: they lose by nine and shoot fifty percent from the

415
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 2: free throw line. And then from there, you know they're

416
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 2: going to play a WCC schedule and not get tested

417
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 2: that much. Obviously BYU and Saint Mary's are good teams.

418
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 2: In fact, you know, Gonzagaga plays BYYU tonight, so that'll

419
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 2: be kind of telling to see where they're at. So

420
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 2: then it kind of flips to you know, Baylor's the

421
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: best team in the country. They hold Villanova to thirty

422
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 2: six points, and then you know, some question marks kind

423
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: of start to come in with Baylor. They you know,

424
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 2: we're down by nine to TCU, they didn't cover against Oklahoma,

425
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 2: they only won by five at Iowa State, and then

426
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: on Wednesday, Texas Tech takes them down and if you

427
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 2: look at the shock quality, it was pretty much fifty

428
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 2: to fifty. So Texas Tech kind of deserved to win

429
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 2: on the road as a big underdog. So, like you

430
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 2: kind of mentioned at the top, now we're kind of

431
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,199
Speaker 2: looking at this from at least this point on and

432
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 2: we're saying, man, there's no more undefeated teams and it

433
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: is not wide wide open, but it seems like you said,

434
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 2: a little more wide open where there's ten to twelve

435
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,199
Speaker 2: teams that can actually win the title. So, you know,

436
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: we were talking futures market. Some of those teams sitting

437
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 2: at you know, twenty five thirty to one now is

438
00:20:58,320 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: kind of the time to buy in on them, because

439
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 2: once we reached the tournament and those teams potentially make

440
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,639
Speaker 2: a run and get to a three year a four seed,

441
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be sitting at those numbers

442
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 2: at the time we come March.

443
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,640
Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah, I mean I thought it was crazy that, look, kids,

444
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:14,199
Speaker 1: Zach again, I still have them uh as a clear,

445
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 1: clear top five team, as as I do with Baylor.

446
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,880
Speaker 1: But I thought it was crazy that people you just look,

447
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 1: you don't just lose Suggs and Kisspert and then everything

448
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: is fine. And then Baylor, with all the talent they

449
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 1: lost on Bailor, are still so deep. I mean, they're

450
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: they They're there. They have no they really no weaknesses

451
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 1: from like one to eight. That's one of the things

452
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 1: that I like about them. They don't really rely on

453
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 1: on one guy. But these teams are not as good

454
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: as they were last year, given the talent that they lost,

455
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 1: the NBA talent that they lost, So I think that

456
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 1: they took a little step back to the field. Still

457
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 1: arguably both above the field, but clearly not the same

458
00:21:56,119 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 1: teams that we saw last year dominate start to finish.

459
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: So obviously we're not buying low on Gonzaga or Baylor.

460
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 1: I don't think that opportunity is going to come all season.

461
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 1: But there are other teams that we could potentially buy

462
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: low and headed into the weekend. So let's transition here

463
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 1: to Saturday and beyond. So many games, so little time.

464
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: Let's look at the Saturday slate. I'll start. I'm gonna

465
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 1: go with specifically for this Saturday, a spot that I

466
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 1: have targeted, and I'm gonna have on Action Network dot Com,

467
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: action overork cap. I'll have my starting the Saturday and out

468
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 1: of college footballs over. I'll have my weekly favorite Saturday

469
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: spots out and I'll say the lines I'm targeting. We'll assume, okay,

470
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 1: what if the line is what kempom projects it as.

471
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna look at Virginia Tech against Notre Dame.

472
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech has lost three straight. They are now zero

473
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: to four in the ACC, which is the ACC has

474
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: been so poor this year. They've lost. They just lost

475
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 1: their by two again. They didn't score in the final

476
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 1: three minutes. You know, they lost to NC State by

477
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 1: five the game before, they lost a duke on the

478
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: road in the game they kind of just got away

479
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: late before that. I mean this, they lost a Xavier

480
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 1: by one on their neutral. I mean there's a team

481
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: that's been close and is bottom ten in and shot quality. Luck.

482
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,679
Speaker 1: I like some of the things that they do, and

483
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 1: is if you can't. One of the weaknesses is Storm Murphy,

484
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: who's their point guard. Runs a lot of their point guard.

485
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 1: He's not the most athletic. He could be pressed into turnovers.

486
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: But if if your Notre Dame is not gonna do that,

487
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: So Virginia Tech should get into their offense here Notre

488
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 1: Dame on the flip side, and I like Virginia Tech's

489
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: offense with a lumin company. If you look at some

490
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 1: of their numbers, it's a it's a pretty damn good offense.

491
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 1: Notre Dame on the flip side has one just out

492
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 1: of nowhere. They've won six in a row. They beat Kentucky,

493
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: lost to Indiana and then they've won six in a

494
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: row two who cares wins, but then you know, then

495
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 1: they beat they beat Pit, North Carolina, Jeordia Technic Clubs,

496
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 1: and all of a sudd they're four and one of

497
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: the ACCI. But this team is like they beat Georgia

498
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 1: Tech in overtime on the road, they beat Pit by

499
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: one on the road. This team has been completely different.

500
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: They also lost to Boston College on the road by sixteen.

501
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: Different team on the road. I think there's a desperate

502
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 1: effort from Virginia Tech little that are let down here

503
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,199
Speaker 1: for Notre Dame. I think it's a good opportunity to

504
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: buy low on Virginia Tech. I think they end up

505
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: winning this game by double. They just take out some

506
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,120
Speaker 1: of the frustrations of their season so far.

507
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 2: This is going to seem like I'm kind of biased,

508
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 2: but I do kind of like a spot for Texas

509
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: against Iowa State. Obviously, the Longhorns lost on the road

510
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 2: and still water, you know, sixty nine to fifty one.

511
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,239
Speaker 2: The final score looks pretty bad, but Texas had so

512
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: many open shots they just couldn't make anything. If you

513
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 2: look at shot quality, it was basically fifty to fifty

514
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 2: in the post game win expectancy, So, you know, a

515
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: really big switch from losing by eighteen to a pretty

516
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 2: much fifty to fifty. Iowa State obviously has been a

517
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 2: great story. They won two games last year, they got

518
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 2: a new head coach from you know, South DA Coast State.

519
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 2: They've been really good, but they're really starting to trend

520
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: in the wrong direction as of late. You know, they

521
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: beat Texas Tech by four. Texas Tech had seven available

522
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 2: players on the road and they still hung in there.

523
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,200
Speaker 2: And I believe had a better postgame win expectancy, and

524
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 2: then they go on the road to Oklahoma lose and

525
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: were winning by double digits and then allowed the Sooners

526
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: going a twenty three to four run and beat them.

527
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: And then this past Tuesday they went into fog Outen

528
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: and they played really well, and you can make a

529
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 2: case they maybe should have deserved to win that game.

530
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 2: But this is a tech. This is a matchup where

531
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: I believe Texas has great advantages. They love to play

532
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 2: a very pragmatic style in the half court, which is

533
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 2: probably what this game is going to be because both

534
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: these teams, you know, Texas three hundred and fifty fourth

535
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: in tempo and Iowa State is two hundred and fortieth.

536
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 2: Texas went in half court offense, his top twenty percent

537
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 2: in college basketball in points per possession, and they love

538
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: to get the ball inside, and that's where Iowa stated

539
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 2: vulnerable because the Cyclones are top ten and three point

540
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: percentage allowed, so elite three point defense, but that's not

541
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: really what Texas likes to do. Texas is unbelievable defensive team.

542
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,439
Speaker 2: They're top five in the country in points possession allowed

543
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: in Manda Man half court defenses and Iowa State is

544
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty ninth in adjusted one hundred and

545
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: thirty one hundred and thirty ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency,

546
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 2: and they're well below average in half court offense. You know,

547
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 2: Ken Palm has Texas, I believe at minus one. We'll

548
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 2: see if by game time, if you know, things start

549
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: a trend towards Texas. But if Texas is a pick

550
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 2: them or an underdog in the spot, I'm gonna have

551
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 2: to buy the Longhorns names.

552
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: The Iowa guy with one of his first first weeks

553
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: Saturday is fading Iowa State shocked. No, but I actually

554
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 1: agree with you here on this, like this is not

555
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 1: I bet that I would normally make just the type

556
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 1: of spots that looks like I always stay is lost

557
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: to in a row. They're coming home. There might be

558
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: a small home dog at Hilton where they have an

559
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: incredible home court advantage. But I still think that Iowa State,

560
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 1: which you have to give a ton of credit Totelbergens,

561
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,199
Speaker 1: who's you know, assembled all of these a lot of

562
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 1: these transfers, who's become almost a brand new roster, and

563
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: their defense is legit. You watch their defense so you

564
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: can look at their metrics. Their defense is legit, but

565
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: I think that they've risen up power ratings and in

566
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 1: the market way too much. This is still an offense

567
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 1: with a lot of flaws, and I think what you're

568
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: seeing they've lost three or four those the Baylor, Oklahoma,

569
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 1: and Kansas. What you're seeing is kind of them crashing

570
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,959
Speaker 1: back down to Earth. And if we do get Texas

571
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 1: minus one, I don't think that they've crashed down back

572
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 1: to earth enough. Texas's defense, by any metric, is elite.

573
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: So like you want to say that both of these

574
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: defenses are equal, I think Texas defense is actually a

575
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 1: little better fine half court battle to elite defenses. I'll

576
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 1: take the Texas offense any day of the week operating

577
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: in a half court because they should. They should live

578
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass, they should get to the line

579
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 1: frequently as well. I Aowa State aggressive defense, and they

580
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: but they foil a lot and Texas is really good

581
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: at the line. I Awa State turned over issues on

582
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 1: offense that should plague them. And I believe Trey Mitchell,

583
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 1: the big one of the big gets for Texas, who

584
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: didn't play two games ago, only played two minutes last

585
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 1: time out. I got to Oklahoma for COVID protocols. Beard

586
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 1: came out and just said like, look, yeah, he hasn't

587
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: been practicing. He wasn't conditioned, right, he hasn't been practicing,

588
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: but he expects him to be full go for Iowa

589
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: State after practicing the rest of this week. That's huge.

590
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 1: Maybe you get favors back as well. So I actually

591
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: agree with you hook them all right, we talked by low.

592
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little sell high. I'm going to stay

593
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: in Big twelve and I am going to go. I'm

594
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: going to sell Texas Tech. Who I just wanted to

595
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: check the final score. They just beat Oklahoma State seventy

596
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: eight fifty seven before that. This just this week on Saturday,

597
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: they beat Kansas. They upset Kansas. On Tuesday, they upset

598
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 1: Baylor on the road, number one Baylor, and then two

599
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 1: days later they beat Oklahoma State at home. I thought,

600
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 1: maybe there's a little bit of a letdown today. Didn't

601
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: play it because there's just a horrendous matchup for Oklahoma State.

602
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: They just you know, Texas Tech does not let you

603
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: get anything in the middle, but they're no middle d

604
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State can't shoot the ball. I'm not surprised that

605
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: it didn't go well for Oklahoma State tonight. But you know,

606
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 1: now you go after these, you know, three pretty big wins,

607
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: you go to Kansas State, and by the way, next

608
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: week on Tuesday, you got a little rematch with an

609
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: Iowa State team that beat you fifty one to forty seven.

610
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: And then West Virginia and Kansas So this is a

611
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 1: sleepy spot for Texas Tech after a hell of a week.

612
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 1: And Kansas State has been close. They've been close, and

613
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: you know they've lost four straight. Desperation effort here, But

614
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a team that lost by by

615
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 1: one de Marquette. You know, they lost by two on

616
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: the road to Oklahoma, they lost by three on the

617
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: road to West Virginia. They just lost by three at

618
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 1: home to TCU. Texas State had a lot of guys

619
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 1: out for COVID and that game was actually fairly close

620
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: and to the end. So this is a team that's

621
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: still battling. The Wildcats haven't been turning it over. They

622
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: can hit some threes. Here. What you need to do

623
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: against Texas Tech. I think that they should have close

624
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: to their full roster available. And something to keep in

625
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 1: mind is if Texas Tech is close at the end,

626
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: you know, if They're up five to you know, five

627
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: to seven at the end of the game, and this

628
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: line is you know, six or seven. Texas Tech is

629
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: horrendous at the line, So that could end up see

630
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: sawing this game into Kansas State sneaking inside the number.

631
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: But I just think this is a spectacular spot for

632
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,120
Speaker 1: Kansas State. All four straight losses. They're still scrapping and

633
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: could be a little flat one for Texas Tech and

634
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: the Red Raiders. By the way, it's a noon tip

635
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: in Manhattan, like sleepy city, So give me Kansas State.

636
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: How about you sell high.

637
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go to the SEC. And I'm surprised

638
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 2: you didn't pick this team, but LSU, they're the number

639
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: one defense in college basketball by a just efficiency, one

640
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 2: of the best defenses in points position, in both transition

641
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: in the half court. But they weren't tested at all

642
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: in their whole non conference schedule. The best team they

643
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: played was Belmont, who's forty third in the Ken Palm rankings.

644
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: And so now they get into the sc SEC schedule,

645
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 2: they lose and get beat pretty bad by Auburn to

646
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 2: open it up. I understand they beat both Tennessee and

647
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 2: Kentucky at home They obviously went to Gainesville and beat

648
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 2: Florida on Wednesday, but this offense is not good enough

649
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: to be essentially one of the favorites to win the SEC.

650
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 2: And in all three of those games. I know you

651
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 2: tweeted it out this morning, but you know, Florida had

652
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: a seventy seven percent postgame win expectancy against LSU on Wednesday,

653
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 2: but lost, I believe by seven. And then you know,

654
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 2: even the two games before that, the Tennessee game, he

655
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: was about fifty to fifty post game win expectancy. And

656
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 2: against Kentucky, like you mentioned earlier, Kentucky really should have won.

657
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: I think they were around seventy eight percent.

658
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: So this is a team then and Kentucky had all

659
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: kinds of injuries. They lost Wheeler, they lost then they

660
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 1: lost Washington. She was in fout trouble. Yeah. Yeah, Alasy

661
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: has been incredibly fortunate.

662
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 2: Right, I mean, they in their four SEC games, they've

663
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: only averaged over one point per possession one time, and

664
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: they've turned the ball over at least fifteen times in

665
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: all four of those games. I mean, you even saw

666
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: it kind of in the market and on Wednesday, and

667
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: obviously I understand, you know, Pinson was out, but Florida

668
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: opened at plus two and a half and they closed

669
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: at minus three and a half. I don't I don't

670
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 2: know about you, but I don't think Pinson's worth you know,

671
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 2: six points to spread.

672
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

673
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, So that just tells you that the market is saying, Okay,

674
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 2: this LSU team, they're not as good as they're you know,

675
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: being seventh in the Ken Palm rankings. They're gonna play

676
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 2: Collins Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday at home. Ken Palm has

677
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 2: as a twelve point favorite. Woo Pig Suy muscleman is

678
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: not going to be on the sidelines, I'll be honest.

679
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 2: Off the top of my head, I don't know who

680
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: their assistant coaches, but I'm sure if you contact Colin,

681
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 2: he can tell you everything about him, including what he

682
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 2: had for lunch today.

683
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: I think that is not going to be up in

684
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: the box like you.

685
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 2: For bad, right, and I mean, you know, and I'm

686
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 2: not gonna you know, Arkansas obviously hasn't been playing that

687
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: well this season, but defensively, you know, the only really

688
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 2: advantage that LSU has offensively is there an incredible offensive

689
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 2: rebounding team. They're you know, around thirty four percent offensive

690
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 2: rebounding percentage well, Arkansas's top ten and defensive rebounding and LSU,

691
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: like we already mentioned, they cannot shoot the ball. They're

692
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: they're getting very lucky a lot of o their shots

693
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 2: they're not taking, you know, high quality shots. This is

694
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 2: a good spot, you know, to get Arkansas if you

695
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 2: can get them, you know, double digits plus thirteen plus fourteen.

696
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 2: I'm sure you know Muscleman being out will will add

697
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 2: a point maybe point and a half two Arkansas. So

698
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 2: I think it's a great spot for the Razorbacks. Eventually,

699
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 2: this LSU team is going to come back down to earth,

700
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,479
Speaker 2: so if they're if not now, I believe they go

701
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: to Alabama next week in TuS Blewsis that'll be another

702
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: good spot. But who knows, the market might continue like

703
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: they did to Florida, and you know Alabama might be

704
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 2: a minus three and a half minus four favorite. But yeah,

705
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 2: give me a Collins Razorbacks on the road as double

706
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 2: digit underdogs.

707
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I had this circled as one of

708
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: my looks and favorite bets that I was gonna talk

709
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: about later, So I'll I'll jump it down. Yeah, I

710
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 1: mean from a shot quality perspective. Also, he's been the

711
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: second luckiest team in the country this year. They're fourteen

712
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: from just as shock quality perspective, they're fourteen to one

713
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 1: on the air from a shot quady perspective, they're projectively

714
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 1: ten and five. They're only teams to twenty six point

715
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 1: three percent from three and sixty two percent from the line.

716
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 1: Because they're both top five. And the problem is, you

717
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: don't play defense. I guess free to I mean, I

718
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: guess Tennessee. Tennessee went twenty three to thirty seven, Florida

719
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,400
Speaker 1: went like eleven of twenty three, and a lot of

720
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: these three. It's even more important for them because they

721
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 1: give up a ton of threes. I think that their

722
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: bottom maybe bottom ten, and the amount of threes that

723
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: they give up because it's a very aggressive defense, and

724
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: it's a great defense. I don't think it's as good

725
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 1: as the metrics suggests. I think that there's some regression

726
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: coming and shooting and then the defense as well. But

727
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:20,959
Speaker 1: they're long and they swarm, but you get open threes

728
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 1: against them, and no one can make open threes and

729
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: no one can make free throws against That is not

730
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: going to last forever, you know, And they got lucky

731
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: with some guys being out for Kentucky and you know

732
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 1: the rest of their resume. If you look kind of

733
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: start to dig deeper, you're like, eah, so I do

734
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: think L see right now this is a perfect time

735
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 1: to sell high on them and Arkansas. Look, you know,

736
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: Arkansas they have some positive shooting regression comings. So it's

737
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 1: like the best of both worlds here. It's like on

738
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 1: LSU's do to give up some threes and Arkansas's due

739
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 1: to make some. You know, they have guys like No

740
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 1: Tay and likes that just are shooting well below their

741
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 1: career averages. I think Arkansas sub thirty percent on the year.

742
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: But what I really like is Arkansas went with a

743
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: brand new lineup. They changed their entire rotation and went

744
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 1: with a brand new starting lineup last game because they really,

745
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: I mean, it was bad, Arkansas was trending in the

746
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 1: wrong direction SEC play. They switched it up, started a

747
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: lineup that had never played together this year, and then

748
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 1: they now granted it was Missouri, but they look spectacular.

749
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 1: The energy was there, and I think that's the spark

750
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 1: that this team needed, kind of the wake up call.

751
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 1: So you're kind of still buying Arkansas low. It's not

752
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: like everyone's going to be like, oh, they beat Missouri,

753
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 1: they're back. So I think, yeah, I mean Ken Papa

754
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: Jackson's at twelve. I would love to get twelve or

755
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 1: better here. I think that they'll have a shot at

756
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: pulling off this upset. LSU's kind of fat and happy hogs,

757
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 1: gonna outside a little SEC tournament revenge. They also don't

758
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 1: have glaring turner issues, which is important against LSU, which

759
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: generates a lot of force. There's a lot of turnovers

760
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: which can turn into offense, and I would assume most

761
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 1: likely Pinson is probably out again, so that doesn't help

762
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: LSU's case as well. So I completely with you on

763
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: this one. Let's move on to our next sege. Here

764
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 1: lay it and let's talk a favorite that you think

765
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 1: might be worth a look that just absolutely rolls whether

766
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 1: it's tomorrow, Saturday, or Sunday, wherever you want to go.

767
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll go loyal to Chicago. At Indiana State, Ken

768
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 2: Pom has it at minus nine and this is so

769
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 2: Indiana State. They went and played Northern Iowa on Tuesday

770
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 2: and they only had seven available players. One of their

771
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 2: best scores was out due to COVID protocols. You know,

772
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 2: like we said at the beginning, who knows if those

773
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: guys are going to be back by Saturday. But this

774
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 2: is a Loyal Chicago team that got a little bit

775
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 2: of a scare from Valpo on Wednesday. You know, they

776
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,319
Speaker 2: needed to hit a three to go to overtime. But

777
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 2: Loyal is top fifteen and both three point and two

778
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: point field goal percentage. I mean, they're shooting a blistering

779
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 2: thirty nine percent from behind the arc, while Indiana State

780
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 2: is three hundred and fifteenth in three point field goal

781
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 2: percentage allowed. If Indiana State gets those guys back, you know,

782
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: Cooper Nice in the lineup, they'll obviously be a little

783
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 2: bit better. But this is a horrific matchup for them.

784
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: They're really bad on defense. They just played an overtime

785
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 2: game against Indiana State. So I love Loyaler Chicago and

786
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 2: how efficient their offense is. Obviously incredibly efficient. They probably

787
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: one of the best mid major teams in college basketball

788
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: this season. But this is just a really, really tough

789
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,720
Speaker 2: spot for Indiana State. So give me the Ramblers as

790
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 2: minus nine. We'll say right now.

791
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: One team worth looking to fade almost automatically I never

792
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: like to say that, but is UTSA The road Runners

793
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 1: are in free fall mode. It just came out that

794
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 1: Dang is leaving the team, their leading scorer, to go

795
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 1: play professionally. They've already lost IV Curry there, so I

796
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 1: mean they're down the top three bout of their top score.

797
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: They have nothing left on this team, and there's just

798
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: there's reports out that there's in fighting and it's not

799
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: good what's going on at UTSA right now with Steve

800
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 1: Henson and I mean, look, today they played the Old Dominion.

801
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 1: Let me see the final scores. They were getting lost

802
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 1: eighty three to fifty one. They were crushed by law

803
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: A Tack at home. The game before, they played Southern

804
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 1: Miss at home. Three games before Southern Miss out team

805
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 1: outside the top three under they lost at home to

806
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 1: Southern Miss. The last the only win that they have

807
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 1: since December eleventh is over Dallas Christian at home. It's

808
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 1: the team that's in free fall mode. They're going on

809
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: the road to Charlotte. I don't know, maybe the market

810
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: at knows now that where this team is at, and

811
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: they just have lost everything that was decent about them.

812
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: I would love to get like Charlotte line is ten

813
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 1: or eleven on and open. I also think Baylor might

814
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 1: be worth a look. Now. It doesn't help today that

815
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, you know, got blown out, but Baylor off

816
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: a loss at home, They've got to sit on that

817
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 1: loss all week. While well, meanwhile, Oklahoma State out of play,

818
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: They've played two games this week, they played tonight, and

819
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: it's just a horrible matchup for Oklahoma State. Just like

820
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,279
Speaker 1: against Texas Tech. They're not going to get anything at

821
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 1: the rim and Oklahoma State can't shoot. So that might

822
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 1: be worth a look as well. But as of right now,

823
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: UTSA is on fat alert.

824
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Oldavini and I believe was out without one

825
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 2: of their Yeah, one of the best scores as well,

826
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,320
Speaker 2: So that's that's even more concerning.

827
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty telling there. All right, let's go through the

828
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 1: rest of the card, Big Saturday slate. We got to

829
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: talk home dog. So what's what's a home dog that

830
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 1: you have on your radar.

831
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Eastern Kentucky home against Jacksonville State. So

832
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 2: this is going to be a three point shooting contest.

833
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 2: I believe these teams are about top ten in you know,

834
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 2: percentage of field goal attempts coming from behind the arc.

835
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: So Jacksonville State obviously just they live and die by

836
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 2: the three point shot. They take around forty three percent

837
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,439
Speaker 2: of their field goals from behind the arc. They're hitting

838
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: them at an incredibly high rate, you know, thirty nine

839
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 2: and a half percent. That's top ten in the country.

840
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 2: But Eastern Kentucky they're twenty second in the country in

841
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 2: three point field goal defense and they can't really do

842
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 2: anything else except turn opponents over. They're twenty six in

843
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 2: the country in turnover defense. Well, Jacksonville State offensively is

844
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 2: three hundred and fifteenth internal and turning the ball over.

845
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 2: So it's a pretty good matchup for Eastern Kentucky. And

846
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: on the flip side, you know, like I said, they

847
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 2: do take three three pointers at a really, really high rate.

848
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 2: They've just lost three straight games Jacksonville State, They've won

849
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: three straight against teams ranked outside the top two fifty.

850
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 2: So what better time to grab Eastern Kentucky. You know,

851
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 2: Ken Palm has Jacksonville State abound minus two minus three, So,

852
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: you know, Eastern Kentucky, you want to throw it in

853
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 2: a round robin, maybe take them. Hopefully I can get

854
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 2: a you know, plus three three and a half four

855
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:38,399
Speaker 2: somewhere around there.

856
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 1: The Colonels.

857
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me the Colonels as my home underdog.

858
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this one. I didn't have this all

859
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 1: my radar, but I'm now going to add it to

860
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 1: my radar now that you bring it up, Andy. I

861
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: like Eastern Kentucky just in general as a dog this year,

862
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 1: not as a favorite, because they just play a high

863
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 1: aerant style like they want to play up tempo. They

864
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: try to create forced turnovers, pressure defense. They're up in

865
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 1: your face. Now if you can break the pressure and

866
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 1: you can get to the rim, they're very vulnerable. But yeah,

867
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 1: that's I think this is a good matchup and a

868
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 1: good spot for Eastern Kentucky. So I like it. I'll go,

869
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 1: let's throw out miss Yeah. I mean, this one's super ugly,

870
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: but let's strow out Missouri against Texas A and M.

871
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 1: I was on Missouri last Saturday. I was scared and

872
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: everyone's like, are you making me that? Missouri plus fourteen

873
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 1: and a half against Alabama they went out right. Then

874
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 1: they went to Arkansas late in the night in an

875
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 1: awful spot. Arkansas has changed their lineup like had to

876
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 1: win the game. Zoi's coming off the Alabama when now

877
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 1: they come home for Texas A and M. After getting

878
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 1: embarrassed they're at home, They've they've played better at home

879
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,359
Speaker 1: at least, so I expect to get a pretty good

880
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 1: effort here in Texas and I think has been out

881
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: performing their metrics. They've won seven or eight in a row.

882
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,400
Speaker 1: I mean, they're up near the top of the SEC standings,

883
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: which is pretty shocking. So after dominating Mississippi, after you know,

884
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 1: dominating Arkansas, they go to Missouri and you know before

885
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: they host Kentucky, So this is a flat spot city.

886
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 1: I don't think that Texas A and M can keep

887
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 1: this shooting prowise up. So there's some aggression coming that department.

888
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:26,240
Speaker 1: They also, like Texas Tech, I said, wanted to fade

889
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 1: on the road in a's about Texas A and M

890
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 1: and other Texas team favorite can't shoot free throws. Texas

891
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 1: A and M is I argue to the worst team

892
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 1: in the country from the line. So again, if it's

893
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 1: like in that area, you know, if they're catching, this

894
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,759
Speaker 1: is gonna be like six or seven. That's when like

895
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 1: the free throws can swing it. So let's go back

896
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: to the well for a second straight Saturday on Missouri

897
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,720
Speaker 1: Hold your Nose Special, by the way, staying in the SEC.

898
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on Tennessee at Kentucky status of Wheeler. Kentucky

899
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 1: could make do without him on the offensive end with

900
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,719
Speaker 1: Washington running the show. Col Party is still ticking with

901
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 1: the lineups he had. Minte thinks start for more offensive

902
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,479
Speaker 1: or top of the other day, but they really missed

903
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:10,640
Speaker 1: Bilo just getting out in transition. Kentucky gets up just

904
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: twenty five percent of the time, which is second the nation.

905
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: He speeds it up, but he's he's awesome on the

906
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: defensive end. I look, it's gonna be hard for Tennessee

907
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 1: to live on the glass here with Sibwe and at

908
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: Rup against Kentucky. The Tennessee droughts, they're just I think

909
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 1: that's what's gonna cost them all year. This team, just

910
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: their defense is elite, so is Kentucky's. But Tennessee just

911
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 1: goes into longer scoring drafts, which I think we've seen

912
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: a time and time again against elite teams this year.

913
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: I think that is going to end up holding this

914
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 1: team back throughout the end of the year. You're probably

915
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 1: gonna get like Kentucky minus four and a half here,

916
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: So any thoughts on that game.

917
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I that actually is one of the games

918
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 2: I was kind of targeting because I, you know, this

919
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: is I think this is somewhat of a by low

920
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: type of situation on Tennessee, just because you know Kentucky is.

921
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 2: You know, it's kind of that this kind of heights

922
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 2: right now. They had a great win against Vanderbilts. You know,

923
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 2: there's a chance that this line could tick up to

924
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 2: maybe minus five and a half, minus six. I might

925
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: have to play the volunteers. There's their second in the

926
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: country in just a defensive efficiency. They're really really good

927
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 2: at defending inside. They haven't you know, their last essentially

928
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 2: their last four SEC games, the one they lost to LSU,

929
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 2: they held them under fifty percent from inside the arc.

930
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 2: The only time they really got torched inside was against

931
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 2: Alabama they allowed, you know, around sixty percent from inside

932
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: the arc. But Fulkerson and Kennedy chan that we're out,

933
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:40,879
Speaker 2: so obviously that affects that Kentucky incredible, probably the best

934
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 2: rebounding team in the country. You know, I don't know

935
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 2: if anybody else's top ten in both offensive and defensive

936
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 2: rebounding percentage, but Kentucky is. So it's gonna be very hard,

937
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 2: like you said, for Tennessee to try to keep them

938
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 2: off the glass. You know, Tennessee they are due for

939
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 2: a little bit of positive shooting regression. You know that

940
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 2: could come here against Kentucky. They shoot a ton of threes,

941
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 2: but they don't shoot it at a very high percentage,

942
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 2: only around thirty two. If it's minus four, I'm probably

943
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 2: just gonna stay away from this and move on. But

944
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 2: if that line ticks up to minus five and a

945
00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 2: half minus six, you know, I might have to play

946
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,239
Speaker 2: the volunteers, you know, at that number. Who knows if

947
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,800
Speaker 2: we actually get that. But you know, with Tennessee losing

948
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 2: back to back road games against Alabama and LSU, you

949
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 2: know there's a chance that the market could push it

950
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 2: towards Kentucky at home.

951
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that if you get if you get

952
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: the sex to look, here is Kentucky. If this doesn't,

953
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 1: I mean Tennessee, if this does open four and a

954
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:36,919
Speaker 1: half five, for me, it's probably stay away. I do need.

955
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 1: I just need a cushion to take Tennessee on the

956
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 1: road against these superior teams because they just there's going

957
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,200
Speaker 1: to be a drought the defense will you generally keep

958
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:49,839
Speaker 1: them in it, but there's definitely going to be an

959
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: offensive drought, which is uh, it just got a frustrating

960
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 1: fouls fans out there. All right, let's uh, before we

961
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: get to Friday night lights, let's uh, let's talk at

962
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 1: the final looks of Saturday. We didn't talk about that.

963
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 1: You want to mention, I'll kick things off with San Francisco.

964
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 1: Hopefully we get them. I would I would just love

965
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: to get the minus one or better. Look, this is

966
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:21,760
Speaker 1: an awful spot for e Yu who before we're recording

967
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 1: this or after we record this, they're gonna play Gonzago

968
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 1: on the road and then two days later they got

969
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: to come back down to San Francisco and play the

970
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 1: Dons a really good Don Steven that two games in

971
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: three days, I mean, both on the road against these

972
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 1: two teams is brutal. Mark Pope Pelvic coach for Byu.

973
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 1: You gonna spend this entire week preparing for Gonzaga and

974
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 1: then you gotta travel and San Francis is gonna be

975
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:47,239
Speaker 1: ready for this game. They got swept last year by

976
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 1: b Yu and the reason is is that they got

977
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:53,879
Speaker 1: dominated on the glass and while BYU now is down

978
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 1: now down two of their bigs for the season, and

979
00:47:57,800 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 1: you know they saw have some talent, but it's really raw.

980
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 1: And San Francisco on the offseason went and beefed up

981
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: their front court. So I think that that's huge here

982
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 1: their offense, They're they're gonna have an advantage on the

983
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 1: perimeter with their guards. Athletically, I think that they'll have

984
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: some success in the pick and roll. And one thing

985
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 1: that they struggle with is transition defense. But that's not

986
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 1: BYU's game. By us outside the top three hundred in

987
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:26,879
Speaker 1: transition rate. So I mean just in terms of distance geography,

988
00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: these teams that a day after playing Gonzaga, sand Fran

989
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 1: won in this game, they now match up really well.

990
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 1: I think BYU is overvalued in the market. You know,

991
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, they lost Harvard, they lost Baxter for

992
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 1: the season. This is uh. You know, Niecks is back

993
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,160
Speaker 1: for San Francisco. I love Golden the coach for the Dons.

994
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 1: This is all downs for me. This is a late

995
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 1: night Saturday game. I will be on sand Fran pending

996
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:56,439
Speaker 1: the number, which should be a hope that b Yu

997
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 1: I mean at b YU beats I guess I'm gonna

998
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 1: go watch people root for BYU to beat Gonzaga. Then

999
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:08,239
Speaker 1: this is abertime, right, so love, I love the don Yeah, I.

1000
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 2: Totally agree with you in that spot, And that was

1001
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 2: the spot I was kind of looking at. So you know,

1002
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 2: I was looking at hoop math and BYU allows sixty

1003
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 2: four percent field goal percentage at the rim. That's very,

1004
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 2: very concerning against the San Francisco team that yes, they

1005
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 2: shoot a ton of threes, but you know they're fifth

1006
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 2: in the country in two point field goal percentage. So

1007
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 2: really really bad matchup, especially after playing go on Zaga.

1008
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 2: I think there's another good spot in the SEC. I

1009
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,359
Speaker 2: like Florida on the road at South Carolina. Ken Palm

1010
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 2: has them at minus three right now. It's a really

1011
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:38,239
Speaker 2: good matchup for the Gators. Like we already talked about,

1012
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 2: they really should have beaten LSU on Wednesday based on

1013
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 2: the shots that they had. They just couldn't get anything

1014
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 2: to fall. There's a couple really really good matches for Florida.

1015
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 2: They're top thirty five and both offensive rebounding percentage and

1016
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:52,839
Speaker 2: getting to the free throw line so free throw rate

1017
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 2: and South Carolina defensively is outside the top three hundred

1018
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,920
Speaker 2: in both those categories. South Carolina turns the ball over

1019
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 2: at a ridiculously high twenty three rate, which is three

1020
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 2: hundred and forty first in the country. Well, Florida's nineteenth

1021
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 2: in the country in turn over percentage. So a really

1022
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: really bad matchup. You know, last time South Carolina was

1023
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 2: out they played Tennessee they turned the ball over twenty

1024
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 2: three times. So Gators at you know, minus three, minus

1025
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 2: three and a half on the road due for some

1026
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:20,799
Speaker 2: positive shooting russion after you know, a game they should

1027
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 2: have won against LSU. I think it's a great spot

1028
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 2: for the Gators, uh to pick off the game Cocks

1029
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:25,439
Speaker 2: on the road.

1030
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: I don't mind that. I'll stay in the SEC. I'm

1031
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 1: actually gonna go I'm gonna look at Mississippi State as

1032
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 1: a home dog. I think you might get some value here.

1033
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: With everyone you know Alabama's lost to in a row,

1034
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 1: they might be a little inflated here. I think the

1035
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 1: spot to play Alabama is next week against LSU. But

1036
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: alban was lost to Missouri on the road, then they

1037
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 1: lost to Auburn Hartford Auburn game, and now you have

1038
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 1: you go on the road to Starkville. Before you know,

1039
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 1: you have LSU, so maybe a little of the Sanies strap,

1040
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 1: But I look Atmissippi State is gonna be ready for

1041
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,760
Speaker 1: this game. Last year they went zero and three against

1042
00:50:59,760 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: album Obama, including an eighty five to forty eight loss

1043
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: in the SEC Tournament. They got absolutely embarrassed. They were

1044
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 1: six of forty five from three in those three games.

1045
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 1: Mississippi State defense does allow a ton of threes in Alabama,

1046
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: I think might have some positive shooting regression coming, but

1047
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:20,280
Speaker 1: they also do a really good job of limiting penetration.

1048
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 1: Allen's defense always Allen's defense is always doing that's huge

1049
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 1: against Alabama. That's what they want to do. They want

1050
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 1: to drive it, they want to kick out for threes

1051
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: and take a ton of threes. That's where they want

1052
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: to live. And both teams are actually shooting for in

1053
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:32,960
Speaker 1: conference plays, so I think you could see some positive

1054
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: shooting regression for each But where I think Mississippi State

1055
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:38,840
Speaker 1: could live in this game is on the glass and inside.

1056
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: And I think Tulu Smith, their starting center, all sides

1057
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 1: put to him being back for this game. He's missed

1058
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 1: a couple with an injury. They went out and got

1059
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,799
Speaker 1: a lot of size. This team can offensive, rebound, with

1060
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: anyone in the country, and that's Alabama's weak point. And

1061
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 1: if Bettiaco gets in foul trouble, it's a layup drill

1062
00:51:57,080 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 1: all day for Mississippi State. Here. Missisippi States due for

1063
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 1: some positive shooting regression. If they don't get it, they're

1064
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 1: gonna get every offensive rebound in this game. So I

1065
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 1: think this is actually a seeky spot for Mississippi State.

1066
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:12,600
Speaker 1: In front of the cow bells, I'm still in college

1067
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 1: football mode. I'll be looking at mis Citi State. Maybe

1068
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 1: we get a little a little value here. All right,

1069
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, we have we're not

1070
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 1: going to do an official Friday Night Lights to three men.

1071
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 1: We guys couldn't join us this week from a recording.

1072
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:27,879
Speaker 1: They did send us their picks, and then starting next

1073
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 1: week we'll have the recording. There's only eleven games and

1074
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: I can tell you that. Let's see tomorrow you have

1075
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:39,840
Speaker 1: Michigan Illinois, which they say Michigan's getting on the plane.

1076
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:42,879
Speaker 1: But that's a perfect game. Is it going to get

1077
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 1: cancel who's playing for Michigan? You have another game in

1078
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 1: Monmouth and Saint Peter's mom at the covering machine. This year,

1079
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: Saint Peter's If you want to watch an elite defense

1080
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: of a team that can't score, you want to watch that.

1081
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 1: But they've been off. They've been off since like December fifteenth,

1082
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:00,840
Speaker 1: both of them in a month. I don't know who's

1083
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,120
Speaker 1: gonna be back. They both coaches like I don't I

1084
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 1: don't know how you expect us to play this game.

1085
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 1: We just got out of isolation. I'll tell you that

1086
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 1: the three man weave guys, you have to give you

1087
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 1: their picks. Jim likes VCU all the way to minus

1088
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 1: one tomorrow seeing plus two and a half at Saint Bonaventure.

1089
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 1: Sant Bonovitch have been one of the most disappointing teams

1090
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,440
Speaker 1: in the country this year. I actually liked the spot

1091
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 1: for Saint Bonaventure. Yeah, but can they have no depth

1092
00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: and they just want to talk about They're like a

1093
00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:31,919
Speaker 1: the Tennessee of a mid major TENNSY. They go through

1094
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 1: these droughts. I don't know if I'd necessarily love that one.

1095
00:53:35,320 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 1: Kai loves Richmond at pick them minus one against Davidson.

1096
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 1: Love this one. This would have been my pick. This

1097
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:45,720
Speaker 1: is a Richmond team that's been pretty disappointing as well.

1098
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:47,840
Speaker 1: But this is a really good matchup for them. Davidson's

1099
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:51,319
Speaker 1: not going to bully them inside. You know, both teams

1100
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 1: should be able to run their offense here, and I

1101
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 1: think Richmond at home should be able to get this done.

1102
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 1: It seems it's underperformed. The talent is still there to

1103
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 1: a coach teams with a lot of offensive town. I

1104
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: think Davidson has overperformed a little bit, and while Richmond

1105
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 1: is underperformed, and this is a good matchup for Richmond,

1106
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:11,799
Speaker 1: who you know, if you could bully them, like really

1107
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 1: defensive minded teams with great interiors, that's gonna be a

1108
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 1: problem for Richmond, who's kind of soft. But that's not Davidson's.

1109
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 1: So I think it's a good matchup in a good

1110
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:24,319
Speaker 1: spot to back Davidson at home and basically a toss

1111
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 1: up against the killops bunch. And then Matt like Sienna

1112
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:32,600
Speaker 1: plus six, he take down to plus five. I love

1113
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 1: this Maras team and it looks like their point guard

1114
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,080
Speaker 1: is going to be back. This game should be a grinder,

1115
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: so taking six with Sienna, I don't mind. I'm cold

1116
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 1: on jim My pick. Is Richmond so extremely hot on

1117
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 1: Kye's pick? And then I'm luke warm on Matt. So

1118
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 1: the pick that I'll throw out there is, uh, we'll

1119
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 1: double it up on Richmond. Where are you gonna go

1120
00:54:59,080 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 1: for Friday?

1121
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 2: Akron plus one on the road at Kent State. I

1122
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: think this is a pretty good matchup. One thing they

1123
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 2: do extremely well is they get to the free throw

1124
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 2: and they have the third highest free throw rate in

1125
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: college basketball, while Kent State is three hundred and first

1126
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:14,279
Speaker 2: in free throw rate allowed. And the biggest thing is

1127
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 2: that the colden Flashes are three hundred and nineteenth in

1128
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:20,239
Speaker 2: bench minutes, So if they get into foul trouble, this

1129
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 2: one could get out of hand pretty quickly. Akron is

1130
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 2: best in spot up shooting and pick and roll their

1131
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 2: top fifteen percent in college basketball in terms of points

1132
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 2: per possession. Kent State offensively has really really been struggling.

1133
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:35,600
Speaker 2: They basically rely on a ton of their points coming

1134
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 2: from the free throw line, which is not sustainable. They

1135
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:41,240
Speaker 2: just lost on Tuesday to Northern Illinois as a fifteen

1136
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. They only shot twenty percent

1137
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 2: from behind the arc, which is not really that shocking.

1138
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 2: One of their starters, Giovanni and Santiago, has been out

1139
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 2: the last two games. Who knows he's going to be back,

1140
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:53,319
Speaker 2: but if he's out, that's another big blow to them.

1141
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 2: For Kent State team that is not very deep. They

1142
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:58,640
Speaker 2: only have about a eight man rotation. So I like

1143
00:55:58,640 --> 00:55:59,959
Speaker 2: the Zips plus one on the road.

1144
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's something wrong with kids. There a team that

1145
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:04,239
Speaker 1: I had some hope for coming into the year, but

1146
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: not only they lose the Northern Illinois at home the

1147
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 1: last game they lost. The Central Michigan is even worse

1148
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 1: at home a couple of weeks ago, and then the

1149
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 1: game before that they lost at home to Southern There's

1150
00:56:15,000 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 1: something wrong. And yeah, Santiago has been out that's been

1151
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:21,280
Speaker 1: killing them because since here Carrie, the transfer from Duquine

1152
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 1: has go look at his minutes. He plays every minute

1153
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 1: for the last seven games, He's played forty minutes. So yeah,

1154
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:34,400
Speaker 1: I don't mind that at all. So just five picks

1155
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:36,359
Speaker 1: this week. In the future, you and I will pick

1156
00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 1: a bonus one when we have some more games, but

1157
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 1: just one of the kind of wet everyone's appetite for

1158
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:45,359
Speaker 1: the return of the Friday six pack.

1159
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 2: Next, say, if you want to, I have a bonus

1160
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 2: one if you want it to throw it up. How

1161
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,359
Speaker 2: about Ion? A first half against Ion a first half

1162
00:56:52,400 --> 00:56:55,279
Speaker 2: against Manhattan. Manhattan's coming off a really long COVID break,

1163
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,839
Speaker 2: they've even played since December twenty first, and now they

1164
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 2: got to go up against Rick Patino's press. Yes, it's

1165
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 2: not a great matchup because Manhattan's three hundred and twelve

1166
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 2: and turnover percentage. It's a really really bad spot for

1167
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 2: Manhattan coming off of COVID break, high turnover percentage, going

1168
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:13,279
Speaker 2: against the press. Gonna try to not get back door

1169
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 2: in the second half. So I'm sure the first half

1170
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 2: line will probably be like I own a minus seven

1171
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 2: and a half minus eight, so Rick Patino first half

1172
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 2: minus eight.

1173
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:23,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Manhattan's actually playing faster this year. We usually

1174
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 1: they're pretty slow another and I think their top one

1175
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty I think and adjusted tempo I ownA

1176
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 1: is going to play fast PG up. But that's just

1177
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 1: like creates more possessions for the better team, So I

1178
00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:37,080
Speaker 1: don't mind that at all. And who knows who's uh

1179
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:40,680
Speaker 1: who's in for Manhattan, So that'll do it for us.

1180
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: We appreciate you all tuning in for the first episode

1181
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 1: of the college basketball season on Friday night at Big

1182
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 1: Bets on campus with BJ and myself. BJ you were great.

1183
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 1: You will get some shit from people for losers and

1184
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 1: won't get any credit for wins, but I am confident

1185
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 1: you'll have more wins and losses by the end of

1186
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 1: the year and the silent majority out there will appreciate

1187
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,439
Speaker 1: you and hopefully me for the rest of the year.

1188
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: So let's have a weekend. Good luck on all of

1189
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 1: your wagers. Make sure the subscribe on subscribe, leave a review,

1190
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: tell a friend, tell enemy. We'll do I'll do some

1191
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 1: giveaways every week and we will be back on Monday.

1192
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 1: We have Mike Calberzy too, so yeah, so we'll talk

1193
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:27,440
Speaker 1: a little what happened on the weekend and then preview

1194
00:58:27,440 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 1: Big Monday and with BJ myself with a Mike Calberzy

1195
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 1: who's been on the podcast before, talk college to performing

1196
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:36,320
Speaker 1: college Basketball. He'll be joining us for that episode. Three

1197
00:58:36,320 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 1: Man Weave guys will still be on Wednesday. Episode we're

1198
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 1: looking forward to. We're looking forward to talking more college basketball,

1199
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 1: finding winners throughout the rest of the year through March.

1200
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening as always, and we'll catch you all

1201
00:58:47,400 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: inter Cheers.