Speaker 1: Check it down, man now down then Monday morning, June
Speaker 1: and Eating of this podcast, Jill Alexander, m lb Q
Speaker 1: two derivative show. You know how we do this. We
Speaker 1: do it each and every year on the Beating the
Speaker 1: Book podcast. The Mariners are past the halfway point that
Speaker 1: gives us license to do it. We'll talk MLB betting
Speaker 1: stats through the perspective of money line wagers, as if
Speaker 1: you're betting these teams each every day bizarro exercise, but
Speaker 1: teaches us stuff about each and every one of these
Speaker 1: ball clubs from a betting standpoint money line, home road splits,
Speaker 1: run line, a sort of de facto power ranking. I
Speaker 1: should say not to mention starting pitching stats, umpire over
Speaker 1: under who's reliable, who's not from that perspective, and of
Speaker 1: course that it gets a little more proprietary first five
Speaker 1: inning stats as well as first inning pitching performance. You
Speaker 1: won't find that anywhere else but right here on the
Speaker 1: podcast mlb Q two Derivatives, right here on the Beating
Speaker 1: of the Book podcast. Enjoy this is a numbers game
Speaker 1: with Gil Alexander broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and
Speaker 1: Information Networks. On those gidiots who believe in analytics, analytics,
Speaker 1: statistics and more are used to win wagers, and Gil
Speaker 1: has every number you need to cash your tickets now
Speaker 1: live from the Visan Studios in the South Point Hotel
Speaker 1: and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is a numbers game.
Speaker 1: Good morning to you on a Monday morning here at
Speaker 1: Serious XM Channel two oh forts where sports betting analytics
Speaker 1: live actionable sports betting information. Gil Alexander. Um, So here's
Speaker 1: the deal today on the show, you happen to land
Speaker 1: on the one day, Kelly, the one day you're here,
Speaker 1: you happen to land on our Q two Derivatives MLB show,
Speaker 1: So Major League Baseball Derivative betting stats show, which we
Speaker 1: do every quarter here Q one, Q two, Q three.
Speaker 1: So one team has rounded the uh the midway bend.
Speaker 1: So we took that as an opportunity to do the show.
Speaker 1: The Mariners are past the halfway more arc here of
Speaker 1: the MLB season. They got a bit of a head
Speaker 1: start on folks, and so today on the show, if
Speaker 1: you are a baseball nerd uh man, is this nirvana
Speaker 1: for you? By the way, if you are not, I'll
Speaker 1: just try to say silly things and maybe entertain you. Anyway, right,
Speaker 1: which not so yeah, this was you know Covery baseball.
Speaker 1: It covered the Bartles years ago. I've moved on from
Speaker 1: baseball since covering the Barley. The covering of the Barlos
Speaker 1: will help you kill your interest in baseball. Do you
Speaker 1: do you have a cold? Kelly? You sound like you've
Speaker 1: been under the bat a cold right now? Okay? All right,
Speaker 1: well feel better. Trying to get you some medication during
Speaker 1: the show, and we'll see what happens to you by
Speaker 1: the end of the show. All right. So what that
Speaker 1: means today is not only will we have we'll have
Speaker 1: little interludes. Paul Spore from fan Graphs will show up.
Speaker 1: We'll talk to him about baseball in general, beyond betting
Speaker 1: how he feels about We'll do it through abetting prism
Speaker 1: division odds with what's going on in each divisions Paul
Speaker 1: Sport from fan Graphs. We will also have Jason Weingarten
Speaker 1: at the end of the show to talk with us
Speaker 1: about his bets of the day, which sometimes and most
Speaker 1: often becomes first inning bets. So we will have that.
Speaker 1: But in the in the meantime, what we'll do is
Speaker 1: we'll do money line money line splits, run line those
Speaker 1: are all very widely available stats. Then we'll sort of
Speaker 1: narrow it down and do different categories. Starting pitching, we'll
Speaker 1: talk about umpires. Will bring in Mark Borcher, who has
Speaker 1: historical umpire stats force primarily for totals betters, but also
Speaker 1: for sides. Going to know which umpires tend to Uh,
Speaker 1: I don't know. Let's say call balls and strikes in
Speaker 1: their own unique kinds of ways. And I put together
Speaker 1: these graphics. It's sure it tells you the stats, that's
Speaker 1: for sure. Yeah. And then we'll do five inning stats
Speaker 1: first five because people love betting first five. So we'll
Speaker 1: talk about the teams that have formed the best first
Speaker 1: fives and the worst. And then proprietary first inning stats
Speaker 1: that you will not find anywhere else. We have them
Speaker 1: here on a numbers game, and we'll talk about the
Speaker 1: pictures that perform the best and the worst in first
Speaker 1: innings to help inform your first inning bets. Now, here's
Speaker 1: the caveat to all of this, and it should be stated,
Speaker 1: and I'll stay it. I'll state it again at some
Speaker 1: point during the show. Much of this is going to
Speaker 1: just be narrative. The whole point of this show is
Speaker 1: to give you predictive information. Some of it's gonna be narrative.
Speaker 1: Someone's gonna be predictive. It's up to you, obviously, is
Speaker 1: the better to determine which you feel is more predictive
Speaker 1: than not. But a lot of it is just, oh, well,
Speaker 1: this has happened. Is it sustainable? And that's sort of
Speaker 1: the question that's the conundrum here. If it was that easy, right,
Speaker 1: if we're just giving stats, was that easy projecting moving forward,
Speaker 1: then everybody would be a rich person, Benny. But it's
Speaker 1: always fascinating to look at and to determine what could
Speaker 1: continue and what is just sort of a mirage that
Speaker 1: has no ability to be sustained. Let us begin, sir,
Speaker 1: by the way major League Baseball this weekend. We were
Speaker 1: just talking with Mitch and Paul E. Moan wents Ago
Speaker 1: and this is why it's fun to have Sporer on
Speaker 1: the show today as well. But it has just been
Speaker 1: unbelievable the things that have gone on in Major League Baseball,
Speaker 1: specifically like you remember, have to go back for like
Speaker 1: just yesterday, we're talking about how the Padres against the Pirates,
Speaker 1: Padres first team in the last eight five seasons to
Speaker 1: blow multiple three run leads after the eighth uh, they
Speaker 1: were up seven to four over the Pirates. Pirates got
Speaker 1: three to tip up to seven seven Padres put three
Speaker 1: more up on the board. Pirates tied that eventually wanted
Speaker 1: eleven to ten. Unbelievable. Then there's the Dodgers three straight
Speaker 1: games where rookie hit a walk off home run. That's
Speaker 1: never happened in the history of Major League Baseball. By
Speaker 1: the way, the Rockies bullpen talked about the volatility of baseball.
Speaker 1: Rockies bullpen eight and the third innings in their series
Speaker 1: against the Dodgers gave up eight earned runs, four homers,
Speaker 1: including those three walk offs. So predicting baseball on a
Speaker 1: day to day base is hard enough. We'll try to
Speaker 1: give some perspective on it with all the stats that
Speaker 1: we go through today, beginning with let us start Kelly
Speaker 1: with let's do the broadest one, which is money line
Speaker 1: records for Major League Baseball teams, and these are widely available.
Speaker 1: Covers dot com a great source to find money line uh,
Speaker 1: sort of the exercises of Bizarro one. Let's say you
Speaker 1: showed up the beginning of a Major League baseball season
Speaker 1: and you decided to bet every each one of these
Speaker 1: teams as a favorite laying the money to win a unit,
Speaker 1: or as a dog laying the unit to win. Uh.
Speaker 1: And if you perform that Bizarro exercise, here are the
Speaker 1: teams that are hooking you up the best in terms
Speaker 1: of in terms of the return on investment, it is
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins. The Minnesota Twins here fifty and twenty
Speaker 1: seven in your standings, they would have netted you eight
Speaker 1: team point five units. Again the Bizarro exercise of having
Speaker 1: bet them every single day thus far this year. The
Speaker 1: reason they were often priced very very generously early in
Speaker 1: the season before folks caught on, before the market caught
Speaker 1: on to how good this baseball team actually is. Dodgers,
Speaker 1: no surprise, second sixteen points six five units roughly in
Speaker 1: your pockets of you bet them every day thus far
Speaker 1: this season, and keep mine with the Dodgers their favorites
Speaker 1: and sometimes big time favorites on given days. So for
Speaker 1: them to have that kind of unit hall for you
Speaker 1: just tells you how good of a baseball team this is.
Speaker 1: And as I was mentioning with Mitch and Pauli moments
Speaker 1: ago in our crossover, there fifty four and twenty five,
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, we are getting into we're not quite in
Speaker 1: Seattle Mariners two thousand, one sixteen game territory, but their
Speaker 1: paces righted about one hundred and ten wins right now.
Speaker 1: That's how good the Dodgers are. Rangers, if you had
Speaker 1: this before the season started, good for you, Rangers number three,
Speaker 1: number three team and sent in terms of who has
Speaker 1: been best for better's fifteen points seven units in pockets
Speaker 1: for bizarro Rangers betters, that is, Rangers betters who would
Speaker 1: have bet the Rangers every single game thus far this season.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you're betting the Rangers every game,
Speaker 1: or any team any game over every single game, perhaps
Speaker 1: you're doing something a little little nuts. Maybe that's not
Speaker 1: how you want to bet things, but you get it
Speaker 1: for the exercise's sake. Braves and White Sox close out
Speaker 1: the top five in terms of the best money line
Speaker 1: teams four betters in baseball thus far this year. And
Speaker 1: again the White Sox, even though they're thirty six and
Speaker 1: thirty nine, they are dogs so often and such generous
Speaker 1: dogs if you will, a lot of bang for your
Speaker 1: buck that even at thirty six and thirty nine they
Speaker 1: would have netted you seven point eight five units. Thus,
Speaker 1: far this year. By the way, the converse of that,
Speaker 1: because we'll get to the splits momentarily, but the converse.
Speaker 1: The worst R O I teams in all of baseball.
Speaker 1: No surprises here your Baltimore Orioles. And when I say you're,
Speaker 1: I mean mine grew up on the Orioles twenty two
Speaker 1: and fifty six. They would have hemorrhaged you nineteen point
Speaker 1: five five units roughly if you had bet the Orioles
Speaker 1: every single day as far this year, and by the way,
Speaker 1: if you've done that, you really are doing something wrong.
Speaker 1: Royal Second fifteen point three units. Uh Down, Blue Jays
Speaker 1: fourteen point seven five units. Blue Jays just offensively so Hamstrong, Nationals,
Speaker 1: and Red Sox. Some couple of these teams, not like
Speaker 1: the others, Nationals and Red Sox, would have cost you
Speaker 1: the most money. And in the Red Sox case, it's
Speaker 1: the fact that they are favorites and such big time
Speaker 1: favorites so often that even at forty two and thirty seven,
Speaker 1: they would have cost you the fifth most amount of
Speaker 1: units in baseball thus far this season as we round
Speaker 1: the halfway bend, just over fourteen units. If you had
Speaker 1: bet the Red Sox blindly thus far this season, by
Speaker 1: the way, in terms of home road splits, Kelly, this
Speaker 1: is all this is often interesting to people. If you
Speaker 1: look at home split the single two best teams in baseball,
Speaker 1: just betting them at home, it's not even close. It's
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and the Rangers. The Dodgers and the Rangers
Speaker 1: who are second and third overall when it comes to
Speaker 1: home performance. They are leaps and bounds, not just leaps, Kelley,
Speaker 1: leaps and bounds better than any other team at home.
Speaker 1: The Dodgers eighteen point five units to the positive at home,
Speaker 1: the Rangers eighteen point one units to the positive. If
Speaker 1: you had bet them every single time thus far this
Speaker 1: season at home. Now, if you were paying attention moments
Speaker 1: ago and actually mentioned that their overall numbers were slightly
Speaker 1: below their home numbers, so yes, this is the case,
Speaker 1: then that if the Dodgers and Rangers are eighteen point
Speaker 1: five and eighteen point one units respectively, as blind bedders
Speaker 1: would have them at home, they are slightly in the negative.
Speaker 1: Both of those teams on the road, by the way,
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and Rangers represent in terms of home road splits. Therefore,
Speaker 1: the widest gap of any teams in baseball in terms
Speaker 1: of home road splits. By the way, the team that
Speaker 1: came in third that might be of interest to some
Speaker 1: folks is of all teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who was roughly, yeah,
Speaker 1: roughly of cost you nine point nine units at home,
Speaker 1: but would have you up nine point nine units on
Speaker 1: the road. So the Diamondbacks, who are middle about twelve
Speaker 1: overall money line, they're middling. They like the Dodgers and Rangers,
Speaker 1: have huge home road splits. It's just that the Diamondbacks
Speaker 1: splits are reverse splits. And doesn't everybody know in Phoenix,
Speaker 1: in the Greater Phoenix area, they're sort of nodding their
Speaker 1: heads like, yeah, not a great home experience that it
Speaker 1: has not been for the diamond Backs thus far this year.
Speaker 1: Um so those are the widest gaps between home road splits.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you're wondering who's the worst at home, uh,
Speaker 1: no surprise. The worst team at home would be the
Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles. Seventeen of their nineteen point five overall units
Speaker 1: lost have been at home at Camden Yards. Not good,
Speaker 1: not good at all for the Orioles, who of us
Speaker 1: who are down seventeen units in terms of home games,
Speaker 1: by the way. Second worst at home the Boston Red
Speaker 1: Sox at Fenway fourteen point five units down at Fenway
Speaker 1: Park in terms of their home performance road performance, again
Speaker 1: we're talking money line Minnesota Twins, who are number one overall.
Speaker 1: Most of their units have been gained on the road.
Speaker 1: Of their eighteen point five units gained overall, twelve point
Speaker 1: three of those have been on the road. There twenty
Speaker 1: six and fourteen on the road this year again for
Speaker 1: for twelve point three good for twelve point three units
Speaker 1: for Bizarro Bettors in terms of their road performance. That
Speaker 1: is by far the best actually know by far. But
Speaker 1: number two of all teams in baseball was the aforementioned
Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks, who had that wide split wide split rather
Speaker 1: between home and road. Diamondbacks up nine point five years,
Speaker 1: nine point nine five units. Excuse me, onto the road,
Speaker 1: by the way, and he guesses who the third best
Speaker 1: road team is on the money Line, Kelly, Oh god,
Speaker 1: you have mentioned them already on this show. I've met
Speaker 1: you to the Marlins there, I was gonna say, I
Speaker 1: think I really mentioned one teams. So the Marlins nine
Speaker 1: point four or five units for betters on the road.
Speaker 1: How about that pretty incredible? You know, the two things
Speaker 1: that that I take away when we look at these
Speaker 1: r o I numbers both like just overall and hope
Speaker 1: and away you know you mentioned it a little bit
Speaker 1: of both. But as far as the best r OY teams,
Speaker 1: you know, the Rangers to be forty two and thirty
Speaker 1: six and to be that strong at home is impressive.
Speaker 1: And that maybe even weirder is the Dodgers, who are
Speaker 1: so good losing you buddy when they go on the road. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know that when we look at the bottom r
Speaker 1: o Y teams, Uh, you know, like you you mentioned before,
Speaker 1: you the Red Sox being heavily favorite, maybe not a
Speaker 1: shocker to see them there, But the Orioles are that
Speaker 1: bad because they've been that bad from the beginning of
Speaker 1: the season. So it's almost tough to end up at
Speaker 1: the top of that list when you're getting plus two
Speaker 1: one are plus two fifty every day? And again for better?
Speaker 1: Is the question once again is okay, all this is
Speaker 1: fun and interesting to look at. How much of this
Speaker 1: is predictive moving forward? Can the Rangers still be that
Speaker 1: good at home? Uh? Can the Dodgers still be that
Speaker 1: middling on the road. As Kelly just pointed out, by
Speaker 1: the way, the worst road teams in terms of the splits,
Speaker 1: because we didn't get to those yet, the worst road
Speaker 1: team in all of baseball in terms of money line
Speaker 1: split would be and he guesses, Kelly, I gave you.
Speaker 1: If you give, if I gave you five guesses, you
Speaker 1: might not come up with us. And maybe I'll just
Speaker 1: tell you it's the Mets. Mets are down ten point
Speaker 1: eight units on the road, closely followed by the Kansas
Speaker 1: City Royals who are down nine point three five units
Speaker 1: on the road. So nothing really to see there. I'm
Speaker 1: not not so sure there's anything to read into that
Speaker 1: in terms of run line. Now, this, of course is
Speaker 1: what I like to call a sort of power um
Speaker 1: number for betting teams, because on the run line, again,
Speaker 1: if you're winning as a favorite, winning by more than
Speaker 1: a run and a half, and if you're losing, if
Speaker 1: you're good, sometimes you get within that run and a
Speaker 1: half and you lose by just one run. So this
Speaker 1: will correlate a lot with one run records. But in
Speaker 1: terms of who's the best run line team in baseball
Speaker 1: this year? So again, Bizarro exercise you're betting this team
Speaker 1: on the run line, whether as a favorite or as
Speaker 1: a dog, each and every single game thus far this year.
Speaker 1: The number one run line team UH in terms of
Speaker 1: record and in terms of your cash the Rangers, the
Speaker 1: aforementioned Texas Rangers, who are forty seven and thirty one
Speaker 1: on the run line thus far this year, good for
Speaker 1: fifteen point one units. So remember, the Rangers are fifteen
Speaker 1: points seven units up on the money line if you
Speaker 1: bet them every time this year, if you've bet them
Speaker 1: on the run line, you'd be up fifteen point one units.
Speaker 1: Rangers thus far this year first half of the season,
Speaker 1: just a few games shy of that. For them specifically,
Speaker 1: they are a better's dream. Diamondbacks have the second best record,
Speaker 1: as is shown on the screen here. But let me
Speaker 1: give you in terms of the money haull second best
Speaker 1: team in terms of money in your pocket on the
Speaker 1: run line, it's actually the New York Yankees, which fall
Speaker 1: fourth on the screen right there. They would have up
Speaker 1: twelve point four five units. What are the Rangers and
Speaker 1: the Yankees have in common. A whole bunch of offense.
Speaker 1: A whole bunch of offense that even when they're pitching
Speaker 1: is middling, they will hit you into oblivion. And so
Speaker 1: the Yankees number two to the Rangers in terms of
Speaker 1: the best teams on the run line, sort of a
Speaker 1: de facto power ranking, if you will. In terms of
Speaker 1: the worst, well worst than the record actually not worstan
Speaker 1: a record. The Orioles of this are the worst record,
Speaker 1: but they're the second worst in terms of money lost
Speaker 1: on the run line. They would have cost you fifteen
Speaker 1: point six five units. By the way, third worst on
Speaker 1: the run line would be the Toronto Blue Jays also
Speaker 1: pictured there. They would have cost you fourteen point nine
Speaker 1: units on run lines this year Red Sox also pictured
Speaker 1: fourth worst, fourteen point five five. But you know who
Speaker 1: would actually have cost you the most money on the
Speaker 1: run line, not pictured in the worst five records, which
Speaker 1: gives you an idea of how a mnemic their offense is.
Speaker 1: It is the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco Giants thirty
Speaker 1: six and forty on the run line, but they'd have
Speaker 1: cost you sixteen point nine five units in terms of money, uh,
Speaker 1: in terms of run line bets. So that has a
Speaker 1: lot to do with the fact that the Giants aren't
Speaker 1: gonna hit very well. Um and the fact that sometimes
Speaker 1: their market price is just not uh commensurate, if you will,
Speaker 1: with what the results have been. So all very interesting
Speaker 1: in terms of the numbers. Now again, what of this
Speaker 1: is predicted. Can the Rangers keep this going? I don't know.
Speaker 1: With that hitting, maybe they can, Maybe they can't. With
Speaker 1: that ballpark, specifically at home, maybe they can. So remember
Speaker 1: that's the thing with the Rangers. Really really good money line,
Speaker 1: really really good run line, and really good specifically in
Speaker 1: terms of the money line at home Texas Rangers. Very interesting.
Speaker 1: Will come back, We'll do starting pitchers, and we'll do umpires.
Speaker 1: We'll bringing Mark Borchered talk about his historical umpire records
Speaker 1: to sort of draw conclusions on whether this one half
Speaker 1: season performance really has legs in terms of the umpires
Speaker 1: career performances over time. Then we'll bring in Pulsemore We'll
Speaker 1: talk to him about Major League Baseball beyond betting. Jason
Speaker 1: Weinart with first inning Picks, will do it all on
Speaker 1: the mlb Q two derivative show right here on a
Speaker 1: Numbers Game at Visa Down Back to a Numbers Game
Speaker 1: with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa
Speaker 1: in studios in Las Vegas back on the numbers game
Speaker 1: here at visa United States Women's World Cup team on
Speaker 1: the field. By the way, Chris Feleik of the Bear
Speaker 1: from mespn's College Game Day chiming in on those stats
Speaker 1: that we just went over, and I think correctly so Kelly,
Speaker 1: you were alluding to this as well, uh, saying that's
Speaker 1: a little surprising the worst teams and units of the
Speaker 1: Orioles and Jays, just because there's such huge dogs all
Speaker 1: the time that a win usually negates a couple of losses,
Speaker 1: which is exactly right, But yet they're so bad at
Speaker 1: baseball Oriels in particular Blue Jay's offense and by the way,
Speaker 1: Blue Jays on base percentage flirting with some of the
Speaker 1: worst on base percentages of all time. Uh. And it's
Speaker 1: tough way betting experience. I talk sometimes about this. Imagine
Speaker 1: if you step back a second and you think about
Speaker 1: this stuff, and you're like, all right, well, what is
Speaker 1: the experience like betting on a team like the Blue Jays,
Speaker 1: like backing that offense and just the misery of just
Speaker 1: not cashing in, um, not getting even ducks on the
Speaker 1: pond if you will to have a chance to score
Speaker 1: runs it's just so it's such a tough betting experience
Speaker 1: here in the dog days of summer. Let's continue because
Speaker 1: we want to do starting pitchers here real quick, and
Speaker 1: we'll get to umpires umpires of of note for totals betters,
Speaker 1: also side betters, but particularly totals betters. Let's see the
Speaker 1: starting pitchers real quick here, Kelly, Lucas Giolito. In terms
Speaker 1: of the Bizarro exercise, if you had bet every single
Speaker 1: Lucas Giolito start thus far this year, and what a
Speaker 1: far cry, what a difference a year makes, because last year,
Speaker 1: every time Gelto was on the hill, I say this
Speaker 1: all the time, I would list his stats and they were,
Speaker 1: if not the worst in all of baseball per fan Graphs,
Speaker 1: they were right in the top two worst, and I
Speaker 1: would have to apologize to the Giolito family for reciting
Speaker 1: them every day. We'll look at that. Lucas Giolito is
Speaker 1: the single best pitcher starting pitcher for betters thus far
Speaker 1: this year. The White Sox eleven and three in Gelto starts,
Speaker 1: you'd be up ten point five five units just having
Speaker 1: bet Gelto starts blindly, by the way we faded him
Speaker 1: last time. If you recall on the show Brandon Woodroff
Speaker 1: of the Milwaukee Brewers. Brewers are thirteen and three in
Speaker 1: his starts, he would have netted you nine point one units. Again,
Speaker 1: these courtesy of covers. These are widely available. Andrew Kashner
Speaker 1: of the Orioles, we're just talking about the Orioles. Well,
Speaker 1: if you're an Orioles pitcher and the Orioles happened to
Speaker 1: go nine and six when you're on the hill, that's
Speaker 1: just what Chris was talking about, you'd be up eight
Speaker 1: point nine units. That's how easy it is for you
Speaker 1: to accumulate units if in fact the Orioles performed for you.
Speaker 1: And Andrew Kashner has had a lot of run sport
Speaker 1: on the hill for the Orioles. Eight point nine units
Speaker 1: and Kashner starts. We talk about what is sustainable and
Speaker 1: what is unsustainable. Let me just throw that into the
Speaker 1: unsustainable category. Is pretty crazy to think about, where when
Speaker 1: you're looking at everybody else we have on this graphic,
Speaker 1: Cleland Ker shot with all of it. Did one castor
Speaker 1: die did six? And he's made you more buddy. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And simply because of that odds one of the one
Speaker 1: of these things is not like the other. That's right,
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw, Jake Odo Rezi closing out the top five
Speaker 1: Kershaw Dodgers eleven and one in his starts. Remember he
Speaker 1: had that long streak where you didn't have any losses
Speaker 1: or no Dodgers games resulted in losses with him on
Speaker 1: the hill, eleven and one, eight point six units to
Speaker 1: the positive for you on Kershaw betting him blindly. Odor
Speaker 1: Reesy for the Twinkies twins are eleven and four, and
Speaker 1: Odo Reese starts, you'd be up seven point six units
Speaker 1: roughly in his starts. By the way, the worst the
Speaker 1: worst r O I pitchers in all of baseball. Uh,
Speaker 1: David Hess of the of the Orioles, this is more
Speaker 1: oriole esque. You know there was a thing called the
Speaker 1: Oriole way when I was a kid. Uh. He's fifth worst.
Speaker 1: By the way. The Orioles are two and eleven. In
Speaker 1: his starts, you'd be down seven point eight units. Um.
Speaker 1: Jorge Lopez one in nine, Jorge Lopez one in nine
Speaker 1: in terms of starts for the Kansas City Royals thus
Speaker 1: far this year, you'd be down eight point two units.
Speaker 1: Scherzer is third worst, and this again has everything to
Speaker 1: do with how big of a favorite he is every
Speaker 1: time National's only six and ten with him on the hill,
Speaker 1: so you'd be down ten point nine units. Jacob Degram
Speaker 1: second worst, you'd be down twelve point to five units,
Speaker 1: and to Gram starts because the Mets are only five
Speaker 1: and eleven in his starts. And then no surprise again
Speaker 1: like with Serzer, Chris Sale is going to be such
Speaker 1: a prohibitive favorite in so many games, sometimes over three
Speaker 1: dollar favorites that when he loses, man does its sting
Speaker 1: red SOX six and ten in his starts. I'm surprised
Speaker 1: you'd only be down twelve point six five units. Quite
Speaker 1: frankly in sest we saw you know saw before we
Speaker 1: were going over the t borrow I graph ry stuff. Yeah. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Mark Borcher to talk umpires. Mark from
Speaker 1: Clear Data Sports. Good morning to you, sir, Good morning Gale. Mark.
Speaker 1: You're back on the show, just like a hand in
Speaker 1: the glove. Appreciate you doing this, man, I'll sure notice.
Speaker 1: No I tell you what it was worth it to
Speaker 1: hear you say a SPAN's I love about you the
Speaker 1: voice of sports betting. You know that. Thank you, Mark,
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. By the way, Mark. Before we get
Speaker 1: into the umpires real quick, what is Clear Data Sports doing.
Speaker 1: You're you're emerging. What's happening? Oh, it's it's wonderful gilt
Speaker 1: we are emerging with Let me just say they're they're
Speaker 1: smarter people than myself and it's going to allow us
Speaker 1: as a handicapping team to produce this wonderful sports betting
Speaker 1: tools and applications. I'm really excited about it because there's
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff that's that's a lot of time
Speaker 1: that I'm gonna be able to save myself first off,
Speaker 1: and then the people that follow us secondly gonna be
Speaker 1: able to interact with a lot of our data. So
Speaker 1: very excited about it. You okay, well, congratulations to you
Speaker 1: on that. We bring you in real quick for good
Speaker 1: five minutes with Mark Portra because we want to talk
Speaker 1: about umpires and I wanna say what their performance has
Speaker 1: been in terms of over unders thus far this year,
Speaker 1: and you can tell us if there's anything to it historically.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about the most reliable over umpires thus
Speaker 1: far this year. Alan Porter at the top of that list.
Speaker 1: Alan Porter, again, you've got to check your umpire assignments.
Speaker 1: You can find umpire assignments at sites at sites rather
Speaker 1: like stat cast, Alan Porter when he's behind home plate
Speaker 1: calling balls and strikes, thus far this year, games have
Speaker 1: gone over twelve out of fourteen times, twelve out of
Speaker 1: fourteen times eighty five point seven percent at the time
Speaker 1: when he's been behind home plate. UH. Tom would ring
Speaker 1: not as much of a sample size, only four out
Speaker 1: of five have gone over. But then there's Mike Winners,
Speaker 1: ten out of thirteen have gone over when he's called
Speaker 1: balls and strikes. Jeffrey Kellogg nine out of twelve have
Speaker 1: gone over. UM, And let's add to this list that's
Speaker 1: that's shown both Carlos Torres and Chad Whitson ten at
Speaker 1: of fourteen have gone over the total games that they
Speaker 1: have umped behind home plate. Sean Barber, Marvin Hudson ten
Speaker 1: out of fifteen, Trip Gibson the third, nine out of thirteen.
Speaker 1: So a whole bunch in terms of reliably over thus
Speaker 1: far this year. But any of those names, do you
Speaker 1: have any historical numbers on any of those guys that
Speaker 1: lead us to believe that this is not just some
Speaker 1: aberration with them? Mark Yes, I do UM. Jeff kell
Speaker 1: is number five and over. UH he's got, he's over
Speaker 1: his quick year, which is a drive. The r A
Speaker 1: based on strikeout percentage, walk percentage and groundball percentage is
Speaker 1: six greater than the average umpire. So just to just
Speaker 1: to kind of put it into context, there's ninety umpires
Speaker 1: that have a decent sample size, and so so Kellogg
Speaker 1: would be six uh from a from a run suppression
Speaker 1: standpoint and the fifth and from a run explosion standpoint,
Speaker 1: I guess to put it. So, so he is a
Speaker 1: reliably over umpires. What you're saying beyond just this season
Speaker 1: exactly deal And this is a four year sample size
Speaker 1: and it's weighted towards the most recent year. That the
Speaker 1: technical part of the other rating very interesting. And with
Speaker 1: these guys, you never know, like is it you know,
Speaker 1: the fact that their strike zone is the is the
Speaker 1: size of a thimble. You know, like their strike zone
Speaker 1: is so small that it's just that much more difficult
Speaker 1: for pictures to get strikes and put themselves in favorable
Speaker 1: counts in favorable positions during a baseball game, that much
Speaker 1: more advantageous four hitters. So Jeffrey Kellogg the name that
Speaker 1: leaps off the board, not just in terms of this
Speaker 1: year's reliable over humps, but it extends to Mark's four
Speaker 1: year sample size as well. What about the reverse here? Mark,
Speaker 1: In terms of the biggest under umpires thus far this year,
Speaker 1: we haven't pictured Andy Fletcher. Nine out of eleven have
Speaker 1: gone under. With Andy Fletcher calling balls and strikes. Again,
Speaker 1: this is the opposite of what we were just talking about.
Speaker 1: And maybe the strike zone is super duper wide here.
Speaker 1: Joe West, Oh Cowboy. Joe West eleven of fourteen under
Speaker 1: thus far this year. Rob Drake ten of thirteen thus
Speaker 1: far this year under Nick Marley pictured pictured, But that's
Speaker 1: also a small sample size. Jeff Jerry meals eleven out
Speaker 1: of fifteen thus far this year when he's called balls
Speaker 1: and strikes have gone under the total, and I'll add
Speaker 1: Lance Barksdale nine out of thirteen have gone under. Then
Speaker 1: a trio will close it out with that. Pat Holberg,
Speaker 1: Kerwin Danley, and Eric Cooper eight out of twelve under
Speaker 1: the total when they've called balls and strikes this year.
Speaker 1: Any familiar names there, Mark, Eric Cooper. Eric Cooper is
Speaker 1: number five and run suppression to strike out rate is
Speaker 1: eight percent better than average, and that pretty much gives
Speaker 1: him his uh his rating and The other guy that
Speaker 1: I always have to bring up and and I remember
Speaker 1: you brought this up on on the Q one was
Speaker 1: Mike Esterbrook. He's the third Yes, he's the third UH
Speaker 1: leader in run suppression from a from an umpire standpoint.
Speaker 1: And I was watching the game when when he was
Speaker 1: behind the plane, and I just he called a pitch
Speaker 1: a strike and it was it was a foot outside
Speaker 1: of the zone, and I just I just had your voice,
Speaker 1: the voice of sports betting in the back of my
Speaker 1: mind saying, yeah, that guy, that guy's calling calling he's
Speaker 1: calling ball strikes a lot. Basically, did you happen to
Speaker 1: see Angel hernana is behind home plate last night, by
Speaker 1: the way, and the Angels Cardinals game? Neither I did.
Speaker 1: I watched some of that game, Gil, and I thought,
Speaker 1: this guy, he wants to be Leslie Nielsen from The
Speaker 1: Naked Gun. I mean, that's that's what the guys go
Speaker 1: in life. There is I think, rather than be a professional.
Speaker 1: Neither team had any idea what he was doing, like,
Speaker 1: and it was so bad. His balls and strikes were
Speaker 1: so inconsistent and so bad that it was beyond arguing.
Speaker 1: You know, when someone is so is so poor at
Speaker 1: the performance you can't even muster up the energy or
Speaker 1: the emotion. Are you just stare at him. You stare
Speaker 1: at the strikes and it was incredible last night. By
Speaker 1: the way, Esterbrook seven out of fourteen, he's seven and
Speaker 1: seven over and unders thus far this year. But what
Speaker 1: you're saying is historically he's very much of an under umpire.
Speaker 1: So again we talked about what is narrative and what
Speaker 1: is what is sustainable In the case of a guy
Speaker 1: like Esterbrook. The seven and seven might actually throw you
Speaker 1: off some some actual good knowledge that Mark is giving us.
Speaker 1: So just a review that real quick. Jeffrey Kellogg is
Speaker 1: a name you want to focus on when he shows
Speaker 1: up an assignments behind home played as an over umpire
Speaker 1: and to um Eric Koper and Mike Esterbrook two names
Speaker 1: that historically with Cooper also also doing it this year
Speaker 1: already in the first half as well. Those are historically
Speaker 1: reliable under umpires. Mark borcher from Clear Data Sports you
Speaker 1: can follow him on Twitter at clear Data Sports. Thank you,
Speaker 1: my friend. I appreciate that. My pleasure. Jil nice talking
Speaker 1: with you, Mark borcherd with the historical umpires that those
Speaker 1: are huge for totals. Betters coming back, we'll take a
Speaker 1: break from the stats. We'll talk to Paul Sport about
Speaker 1: how he feels about the season right now midway through
Speaker 1: the division races, and we'll get a little DFS from
Speaker 1: him on a short card on the major league schedule
Speaker 1: seven games, but maybe he has some thoughts for your
Speaker 1: DFS place today coming back on a Numbers game at Visa.
Speaker 1: Down back to a Numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Laws, Vegas.
Speaker 1: In between segments here at Visa, we run a in
Speaker 1: case you missed Visa last week sort of montage if
Speaker 1: you will, from UH shows in the previous week, that
Speaker 1: one with a Dave farre in a mall, Kelly, they
Speaker 1: have like a tail of the table too. I don't
Speaker 1: know if I didn't know those two had beef, by
Speaker 1: the way, the slight trash talk a day when the
Speaker 1: ball was off, so we decided to make a graphic
Speaker 1: floor when a ball came back against each other. I'm
Speaker 1: saying with Mitch and PAULI earlier in our cross talk
Speaker 1: this morning that if I ever complained to you about
Speaker 1: a bad beat again, Kelly, please stop me. Mid sentence
Speaker 1: because last night I had the over in the Angels
Speaker 1: Cardinals Sunday night baseball game. Did you see this last night?
Speaker 1: I saw bits a piece of it early, I did
Speaker 1: not see the edge. It was two to nothing headed
Speaker 1: into the ninth. The total you could have gotten an
Speaker 1: eight and a half, but it closed it nine. It
Speaker 1: was two to nothing headed into the ninth, and the
Speaker 1: Angels when all nuts on the Cardinals bullpen. They were
Speaker 1: dinking them to death. I think there was finally an
Speaker 1: extra base hitting this game. It was of all people,
Speaker 1: Justin Bower had the face of the first extra base
Speaker 1: hitting this game. Anyway, the Angels played in four runs
Speaker 1: in the top of the ninth to make it six
Speaker 1: to nothing. By the way they left the bases j Coost,
Speaker 1: so it could have been more. So if you were
Speaker 1: a totals better and you're like, oh man, that would
Speaker 1: have been a miracle. Oh my goodness if they had,
Speaker 1: if they had had one more swing in the bat,
Speaker 1: we would have had the over. But they left the
Speaker 1: bases loaded, so sixty nothing. Oh well, we gave it
Speaker 1: a run. Yeah, I'm looking at the box wor right now,
Speaker 1: and you know, I know, doing the show Saturday or
Speaker 1: Sunday yesterday, I bet across America with a ball. He
Speaker 1: had mentioned that. Uh, I forget exactly what gave it
Speaker 1: was from Saturday where he had the over. I think
Speaker 1: it was eight and a half and two of the
Speaker 1: team scored eight runs I think in the first dating
Speaker 1: or for the first two, and he had to sweat
Speaker 1: it out to the last dating where they played at
Speaker 1: a ninth. Well, so this one last night, so as
Speaker 1: I said, six to nothing, they left the bases loaded,
Speaker 1: and even if you had some inkling of a miracle,
Speaker 1: you were like, oh, well that was fun to even
Speaker 1: play it out that much, to even have a shot
Speaker 1: at it, to get the to get the winning run
Speaker 1: to the plate for your total. So then the bottom
Speaker 1: of the ninth shows up and it's quickly two outs,
Speaker 1: nobody on. It's still six to nothing, and you're not
Speaker 1: even thinking, you're not even thinking about what's going on.
Speaker 1: And then Martinez, out of nowhere hits a solo shot.
Speaker 1: You're like, oh, why out so there won't be a shoutout.
Speaker 1: It's six to one, and then Molina singles and batter
Speaker 1: walks and Colton Wong. Then Jack's a two R B
Speaker 1: two RB I double and it's six to three and
Speaker 1: you're like, oh my god, you've gotta be kidding me.
Speaker 1: And then Dexter Fowler with this bloop excuse me single
Speaker 1: into right field and Wong scores from second and over
Speaker 1: Betters go crazy and under Betters, I just want to
Speaker 1: hug all of you. That is one of the worst
Speaker 1: beats ever. Um in a season full of just horrible
Speaker 1: beats every night, it seems like a crazy weekend overall. Yeah,
Speaker 1: a weekend that had, you know, three consecutive walk offs
Speaker 1: from Dodgers rookies, which has never happened again. There was
Speaker 1: also the amazing thing in Pittsburgh where the Padres gave
Speaker 1: up to three run leads after the eighth that hasn't
Speaker 1: happened in eighty five seasons. And then the Yankees can't
Speaker 1: stop hitting home runs twenty six straight games, which is
Speaker 1: a franchise record. We bring in Paul's borer here at
Speaker 1: the way marker, just right around the halfway mark of
Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball season. Paul from Fan Grass and
Speaker 1: the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. Great time to have
Speaker 1: you here. Good morning to you, PAULI morning Gale. How's
Speaker 1: it going going very well? Did you see that game
Speaker 1: last night. I did. I saw the end of it.
Speaker 1: I saw the last few innings there and it was
Speaker 1: absolutely insane. And um, I didn't have anything on it,
Speaker 1: but that I thought about. I thought about the handies chapters,
Speaker 1: the ones who got lucky and the ones who got
Speaker 1: absolutely snake bitten by it. Just it's just incredible. What
Speaker 1: a what a uh? Every night in baseball there's some
Speaker 1: ridiculous story that might have been the worst of all
Speaker 1: of them. The Mariners have rounded the halfway mark of
Speaker 1: the season, so it gave us a license to do
Speaker 1: a Q two derivative show today. I'm curious with you,
Speaker 1: though about these division races, how you feel about all
Speaker 1: of them? And let's start in within the American League East,
Speaker 1: where the Yankees, Uh Yankees. Right now, PAULI, they have
Speaker 1: a four and a half game lead over the Raise,
Speaker 1: eight games up on the Red Sox. If you look
Speaker 1: at the betting odds, the Yankees are at minus to
Speaker 1: sixty this per William Hill. The Rays plus three fifty,
Speaker 1: the Red Sox plus five hundred. We won't even mention
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays and Orioles numbers, which are you just
Speaker 1: threw up a number just to throw one up. But
Speaker 1: how do you feel about the Yankees in this division? They,
Speaker 1: I would assume, in your opinion, or the team to
Speaker 1: beat here. And could this even increase from four and
Speaker 1: a half? Yeah, I mean it certainly could. Obviously, they've
Speaker 1: done what they've done with just an immeasurable number of injuries,
Speaker 1: and now they're starting to get guys back, like insane
Speaker 1: guys you know, uh, Jim Carlos, Stanton, Aaron Judge coming back.
Speaker 1: When you get pieces like that, of course they're going
Speaker 1: to be aggressive at the break or at the deadline
Speaker 1: as well. So yeah, I can definitely see it growing.
Speaker 1: You know, they can always fall on hard times and
Speaker 1: and maybe have the Rays catch them, but it's a
Speaker 1: long shot. Right now. I really got to think that
Speaker 1: they're the class of that division and probably the class
Speaker 1: of the A L because of what they were able
Speaker 1: to do, and now they're gonna have their whole team likely, right,
Speaker 1: And of course the injuries could continue to strike, but
Speaker 1: they've had some of the worst injury luck in a
Speaker 1: half season that I've ever seen, and they've they've maintained,
Speaker 1: not only maintained, they've excelled in spite of it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you've got a favor the Yankees right now. I don't
Speaker 1: know how you could really convince yourself that the Rais
Speaker 1: or Red Sox are our favorites there. For sure, you
Speaker 1: might want to bet on them, but you couldn't convince
Speaker 1: yourself that you're doing anything but taking a long shot. Well,
Speaker 1: they're they're not fair, right, The Yankees are minus to sixty.
Speaker 1: The question becomes, are the Rays at plus three fifty
Speaker 1: or the Red Sox at five to one? Are they
Speaker 1: worth a bet down four and a half and eight, respectively.
Speaker 1: And what I'm getting from that is not exactly you
Speaker 1: would not make those bets. The Raises only one I
Speaker 1: might consider. I really like what their squad has. But
Speaker 1: with the Red Sox, you know, I was kind of
Speaker 1: worried about, and I think we even talked about it
Speaker 1: on the show in in the spring. Their bullpen, you know,
Speaker 1: they didn't do anything with it, and it's really not
Speaker 1: any good at this point. And they got a few
Speaker 1: pieces of that are working the right way, but that
Speaker 1: you have to have debt. We we've talked about bullpen.
Speaker 1: You know, it's great to have one or two guys,
Speaker 1: uh these days, but you really need four or five
Speaker 1: or six that you can rely on, and of course
Speaker 1: we know the ups and downs with the rotation. Chris
Speaker 1: tals back on tract. David Price has been great, but
Speaker 1: Porcello and I rod a Ardo Rodriguez at the back end,
Speaker 1: they're not really steady. And the offense is is still
Speaker 1: great though that'd be what you'd be banking on. But no,
Speaker 1: I'd rather go raise between the two if I were
Speaker 1: going to take If I'm going to take a bet
Speaker 1: in the A l E. What's interesting about the Red
Speaker 1: Sox And sometimes when the team performs sort of middling
Speaker 1: like this after winning a World Series, you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: they're lurking beneath, they're sneaking. There's nothing about this team
Speaker 1: that feels like they're lurking in any way. Like I
Speaker 1: just don't see a surge from them exactly because you know,
Speaker 1: the offenses is, you know, clicking on on not every cylinder,
Speaker 1: but but it's going quite well. While Mookie Bets maybe
Speaker 1: isn't at the peak that you would expect quote unquote
Speaker 1: only an eight fifty two ops. Guys like Raphael Davers
Speaker 1: and Zander Bogarts have picked up the slack and so
Speaker 1: even if even if you would assume that maybe in
Speaker 1: bets and J. D. Martinez would maybe surged forward, you'd
Speaker 1: probably have to bake down, you know, bring down Bogard's
Speaker 1: endeavors a little bit to even it out. Uh, Andrew
Speaker 1: man Attende has been someone who has been kind of
Speaker 1: slow this year. But again, I just don't I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I can't really map out a scenario or they super
Speaker 1: surge forward. Alright, Ale Central talking to Paul Sport from
Speaker 1: Fangraphs at sport spo r e Er on Twitter. Also
Speaker 1: the Sleeper in the Bus podcast. Twins eight game lead
Speaker 1: now eight game lead over the Cleveland Indians, which is big,
Speaker 1: but uh, you know, just a little uncomfortable with the
Speaker 1: Twins coming back down to earth a little bit. Twins
Speaker 1: minus nine thousand to win the Vision. You don't want
Speaker 1: to make that bet. But how about the Indians that
Speaker 1: tend to one? Does that interest you at all? With
Speaker 1: a very easy schedule coming up in the next thirty days, however,
Speaker 1: still no Clubber, still no Clevinger, still no Carrasco. So
Speaker 1: brutal to have Clevinger come off the d come off
Speaker 1: the I l and sprain his ankle right away now,
Speaker 1: this one shouldn't be too bad, but it is kind
Speaker 1: of brutal to have that happen. You mentioned Cluber's out
Speaker 1: he got hit in the forum with the pitch and
Speaker 1: broke it, and Carrasco is dealing with a total, you know,
Speaker 1: off field type of deal with the blood issue, and
Speaker 1: so yeah, I mean it is. It isn't terrible at eight,
Speaker 1: and you mentioned the easy schedule. That division is so bad.
Speaker 1: Of course the Twins are gonna be able to beat
Speaker 1: up on that division as well. I really don't see them.
Speaker 1: I really don't see Cleveland making a massive surge. They
Speaker 1: might make it close where they're within three or four
Speaker 1: by seasons, then make it look like more of a race.
Speaker 1: But I picked Minnesota at the beginning. I'm gonna stick
Speaker 1: with that one. I like what they're doing and they're
Speaker 1: gonna add as well. Whereas Cleveland, I think I'd be
Speaker 1: surprised if they add because if they if they weren't
Speaker 1: gonna do anything at free agency, what makes what makes
Speaker 1: us think they're going to trade away if they can't
Speaker 1: spend just money, What makes us think they're gonna take
Speaker 1: away trade assets and spend money. That's the thing with
Speaker 1: these Like, we talked about this with season win totals
Speaker 1: before the season, who's going to be in a sell
Speaker 1: off at the deadline. Some of these teams that are
Speaker 1: that are in it still could be selling off of
Speaker 1: the deadline. Namely, let's take the a L West Houston
Speaker 1: with a tantalizing le narrow six and a half game
Speaker 1: lead in the American League West. You look up at
Speaker 1: the standings, You're like, wow, that's not nearly as wide
Speaker 1: as it once was. Rangers, who are six and a
Speaker 1: half back, are sevent team to one courtesy of William
Speaker 1: Hill to win the division. Both the A's and the Angels,
Speaker 1: who are eight and ten games back respectively, they're thirty
Speaker 1: to one. Would you take a flyer on any of
Speaker 1: those three teams? Boy, I don't think so. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Astros made it look and made it look close
Speaker 1: recently because they were on a big losing streak before yesterday,
Speaker 1: and you know, so it looks a lot closer than
Speaker 1: it is because of when we're looking at it. Both
Speaker 1: of those clubs, the Rangers and the A's. Rangers specifically
Speaker 1: have been really impressive this year. Folks were expecting the
Speaker 1: A's to do something and they found back. You're a
Speaker 1: slow start, and even the Angels are kind of lurking.
Speaker 1: They just don't have enough pitching. Uh No, I can't
Speaker 1: really convince myself to go up against that Houston juggernaut
Speaker 1: because it's not it's not even playing at peak performance.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, that is a team I could see
Speaker 1: surging and their forty nine and thirty. So when you're
Speaker 1: a team that that's that good that you could feasibly
Speaker 1: see taking a leap in the second half, I don't
Speaker 1: want to mess with anything there between the Rangers, A's
Speaker 1: or or of course the Angels, which are the super
Speaker 1: long shot. I'm with you, I wouldn't touch any of them.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it with you your money. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the National League East Atlanta Braves now with a
Speaker 1: six and a half game lead similarly in the East
Speaker 1: over the Phillies, who have just been getting destroyed. They've
Speaker 1: lost seven in a row. Braves, with the six and
Speaker 1: a half game lead over the Phills, eight and a
Speaker 1: half over the Gnats, nine over the Mets, Braves are
Speaker 1: minus one fifty to win this division. Over at William Hill.
Speaker 1: The Phillies are very shortly priced at plus one fifty.
Speaker 1: That's twelve to one met seventeen to one. Anything with
Speaker 1: the with the Gnats that that excites you there or
Speaker 1: still just you just can't bring yourself to do it. Gil,
Speaker 1: we we got we gotta break up with the Mats.
Speaker 1: We've really been on them for years. We got we
Speaker 1: gotta dump them. This is a toxic relationship that we're in.
Speaker 1: You know, they've got a core that that makes that
Speaker 1: you can really you can really trick yourself your handicappers
Speaker 1: out there. You're gonna be late night staring at san
Speaker 1: grabs and Baseball reference, really making a case for yourselves
Speaker 1: before you go put down some money. I'd be careful
Speaker 1: because again, once you get past the the offensive core
Speaker 1: and and the awesome Scherzer Strassburg Corbin one two three punch,
Speaker 1: it's it's light and again it comes down to the bullpen,
Speaker 1: which is awful for them. I would say that it's
Speaker 1: almost a miracle that they're even three games under right
Speaker 1: now with the bullpen that they've had. I mean, they
Speaker 1: were chasing down some historical relevance for some for being
Speaker 1: for being awful with their bullpen early on, and it
Speaker 1: has it has regrets back a little bit towards the
Speaker 1: middle there. But who do you like in the bullpen
Speaker 1: besides Sean Doolittle. The thing of it is, even if
Speaker 1: they make moves, even if they if they gut the
Speaker 1: farm system or train a big piece and get two guys,
Speaker 1: the two bullpen guys really flip everything here. I don't
Speaker 1: think so. I mean, you got Doolittle and that's really it.
Speaker 1: And the nerve wracking thing is as as the best
Speaker 1: guy that they have, he's got a little bit of
Speaker 1: a health profile that isn't isn't the most favorable either.
Speaker 1: So no, I can't really carve out the scenario for
Speaker 1: the Gnats. Of course, we will break up with them
Speaker 1: and then this will be the year that they actually
Speaker 1: do it. But I I'd be really really surprised if
Speaker 1: they were able to leap frog. And one of the
Speaker 1: things to be mindful of too is not only um,
Speaker 1: you know, they kind of have three teams. I know
Speaker 1: that Mets aren't ahead of them right now, but they
Speaker 1: could be. You know, in two days, they could be
Speaker 1: right ahead of them. So they're really contending with two
Speaker 1: three teams at any moment. Not that the Mets are
Speaker 1: an organization to be worried. So to be worried about
Speaker 1: right now with the way they're turmoils going, but now
Speaker 1: I can't see it. And with the braves of Phillies
Speaker 1: on short numbers, I'm not touching them. The Phillies are
Speaker 1: only one fifties there with the six and a half
Speaker 1: game deficit. No, you, no way, I'll burn my money,
Speaker 1: you know, forget that. That's that makes no sense to me.
Speaker 1: So and at least is a total layoff, all right, Well,
Speaker 1: the n L Central is the most interesting though, right,
Speaker 1: five and a half total games separating the Cubs at
Speaker 1: the top from both the Pirates and the Reds at
Speaker 1: the bottom. And yet here are your division numbers. Cubs
Speaker 1: plus one twenty, Brewers a half game back plus one sixty,
Speaker 1: Cardinals two games back plus four hundred four to one,
Speaker 1: and then the Reds and the Pirates five and a
Speaker 1: half back, eighteen to one on the Reds, thirty to
Speaker 1: one on the Pirates. A bite here, perhaps I can
Speaker 1: get multiple bites here, to be quite honest, I mean,
Speaker 1: even the Brewers, it's not a great number at plus
Speaker 1: one sixty, but it's such a it's such a good team.
Speaker 1: I really liked them. I think they're going to remain
Speaker 1: aggressive to and make moves at the dead line. Uh,
Speaker 1: the Reds have really intrigued me. This was actually a
Speaker 1: team that I was interested in coming into the season,
Speaker 1: thinking that they could make some noise, and they got
Speaker 1: off to just an atrocious start, and I was like,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe I was a year earlier, just
Speaker 1: dead wrong on that. They went eleven and sixteen, or
Speaker 1: or um twelve and seventeen if you count their their
Speaker 1: too March games as well for March April, and it
Speaker 1: was just looking really bad. Talk about pitching there's was
Speaker 1: just horrific, and they're hitting was actually remarkably in two.
Speaker 1: They didn't really have anything going right their way. Now
Speaker 1: everything's starting to click and we're really seeing what this
Speaker 1: Red team is made of, if this offense can can
Speaker 1: keep it going and you know, get up to a
Speaker 1: level where they belong. Right now, they still only have
Speaker 1: two guys with an OPS plus over one hundred that
Speaker 1: are regular starter. Strick Diatrict doesn't it doesn't quite make
Speaker 1: the grade to be a a full time starter, or
Speaker 1: else they'd have three because he kind of splits time.
Speaker 1: He doesn't start against lefties. But I like this Cincinnati team.
Speaker 1: You look at their Pythagoran when what just looks at
Speaker 1: runs four and again, and they're right there with the Cubs.
Speaker 1: They're they're a half game behind them. So I think
Speaker 1: the Reds as far as my long shot, that's the
Speaker 1: team I'm all the ones we've talked about so far
Speaker 1: in the first five divisions. I'd like to go with
Speaker 1: them for my long shot. And then, like I said,
Speaker 1: the Brewers as well for more of a obvious pet
Speaker 1: but a team that I definitely like. I like it
Speaker 1: Brewers and Reds at thirty to one. We'll take a
Speaker 1: bite on both of those. Paul Sport from Fan Graphs
Speaker 1: right here on the Numbers game at Visa now live
Speaker 1: from the Visa Studios in the South Point Hotel and Casino.
Speaker 1: It's Gil Alexander, our number two of the numbers game.
Speaker 1: Right here at Visa, we're sports Betting Analytics, live, actionable
Speaker 1: sports betting information series x M Channel two four, Visa
Speaker 1: dot Com, the Visa App, Fobo TV, Sling TV, and
Speaker 1: Game Plus, as well throughout Canada, New York City and
Speaker 1: New Jersey's Gil Alexander. Let's continue with our mlb Q
Speaker 1: two derivative stat shows. So again this happens once every quarter.
Speaker 1: We do it We've done on the Poe Cast for years,
Speaker 1: both Beating the Book and Betting Door before that, where
Speaker 1: every quarter of the baseball season we look at betting
Speaker 1: stats and hope to learn something. Again, much of it
Speaker 1: is narrative, but some of it predictive. Some can help
Speaker 1: you with your baseball bets moving forward, and these will
Speaker 1: become more proprietary as we go along here now, UH,
Speaker 1: in the first hour, we did very widely available stats
Speaker 1: covers dot Com a great source for those stats, and
Speaker 1: we talked about umpire assignments again, specifically with the umpire
Speaker 1: segment stat Fox among the sites that have umpire assignments,
Speaker 1: so you know who's going to be behind home plate.
Speaker 1: And again if you missed it, we'll put it up
Speaker 1: in podcast form to give you the names that we
Speaker 1: mentioned that are reliable over and under umps. Let's talk
Speaker 1: first five innings. Now. For years I relied on on
Speaker 1: Side Sports Great Sports app for these UH. They are
Speaker 1: so into there, they are so busy with some UH
Speaker 1: deals that they're making that they were not able to
Speaker 1: provide them for me this time. However, Joe Osmore shout
Speaker 1: out to Joe Osborne who had some five inning stats
Speaker 1: for us, and I went ahead, listen to me, Kelly,
Speaker 1: I did some stuff this weekend. I actually did some
Speaker 1: Morgan updated these through the weekend. How about that. Wow, Yeah,
Speaker 1: somebody got off their button did some work. So these
Speaker 1: are the best and worst first five inning teams in
Speaker 1: all baseball game Joe Osmore providing them. I just updated
Speaker 1: them through the weekend. But in terms of the actual records,
Speaker 1: Twins best first five team in all of baseball for
Speaker 1: the season started. If I had said to you, hey,
Speaker 1: who do you think it's gonna be the best first
Speaker 1: five team in all Baseball's gonna say with the Twins
Speaker 1: have been on your radar, and I finds I'm a
Speaker 1: little surprise to see the Dodgers out there right now.
Speaker 1: Whether you've lost buddy for you on the road, you
Speaker 1: would think they'd be a little little closer to even there. Well,
Speaker 1: So Twins five and ten, these are just the records
Speaker 1: in first five games. Again, remember these could be pushes.
Speaker 1: That's why we have ties here and ten for the Twins.
Speaker 1: Dodgers right behind them fort and eleven. Dodgers record actually better,
Speaker 1: but the amount of money they made for you. Actually
Speaker 1: just just a little lower than that because of what
Speaker 1: Kelly's talking about. Dodgers are favorites a lot and so
Speaker 1: and they lose, it tends to hurt more. Athletics, Yankees,
Speaker 1: Rangers round at the top five. That's a boy. The
Speaker 1: Dodgers and eleven top five or excuse me, a first five,
Speaker 1: but their second best in terms of the record, in
Speaker 1: terms of the money one. So if we went to
Speaker 1: the actual raw stats from Joe Osborne, what we learn
Speaker 1: is that in with those records, the Twins roughly would
Speaker 1: have netted you if you bet them blindly first five
Speaker 1: any game this year, Roughly you're about nine units up
Speaker 1: roughly abount nine units up with the Dodgers. You're up
Speaker 1: around six units because it has to be significantly less
Speaker 1: Dodgers then, right, but Athletics might be around what the
Speaker 1: Dodgers are or maybe by way off uh no, right
Speaker 1: exactly right there there, right on their heels exactly. Athletics
Speaker 1: are excuse me, right around five point seven units somewhere
Speaker 1: in that territory. So it's um, you know again bizarro exercise.
Speaker 1: You wouldn't you wouldn't do this in real life. Bet
Speaker 1: them maybe you would. I don't know, maybe some of
Speaker 1: you would, but you probably shouldn't bet these every single
Speaker 1: day are you're probably doing something wrong. But if you had,
Speaker 1: that's where these shake out. In terms of the bottom five,
Speaker 1: uh worst first five inning teams thus far this year,
Speaker 1: it is the San Francisco Giants that have the worst
Speaker 1: record whatsoever. Forty two and thirteen and first five just Giants.
Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing though, if you're a Giants
Speaker 1: fan and I said you look, before the decade started,
Speaker 1: I said, here's the deal. You're gonna win three World
Speaker 1: Series in the next five years. You're going to suck
Speaker 1: at baseball after that. Do you take that deal? You
Speaker 1: take it every time? Anybody that's right. Blue Jays, God,
Speaker 1: Blue Jay's come up on this list so many times.
Speaker 1: They're bad at first five to fourteen, Indians, third worst,
Speaker 1: three and fifteen, Tigers and Padres running up the top
Speaker 1: the worst five if you will, by the way, looking
Speaker 1: at with the money, if you had bet the Giants,
Speaker 1: so now, remember when we talked the top, if you
Speaker 1: had bet the Twins, you'd be up nine units and
Speaker 1: you're like a nine units big deal. Every one of
Speaker 1: those games. Well, if you had bet the Giants, you'd
Speaker 1: be down twenty units first five. That is not good. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you do not want Yeah, the the bad are much
Speaker 1: worse than the good are good. In other words, Blue Jays,
Speaker 1: you'd be down about nineteen point five units, and then
Speaker 1: it drops a little. Indians, you'd still be down thirteen
Speaker 1: point three five units, Tigers roughly thirteen units in the
Speaker 1: red padres ten point seven units. That's if you bet
Speaker 1: them again, blindly, each and every first five thus far
Speaker 1: this year. And so you know, you look at those
Speaker 1: both good and bad, and you think yourself, who would
Speaker 1: I have predicted before the season? Well, Dodgers, with those pitchers,
Speaker 1: you probably would have predicted they're gonna have a good
Speaker 1: record no matter what. Um. On the other hand, you
Speaker 1: look at the Indians. The Indians who you you figured, oh,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Clubber, and it's gonna be Carrasco. You've
Speaker 1: got Trevor Bauer going well, they've had the injuries, they've
Speaker 1: had the you know, the blood issue with Carrasco, Clevinger
Speaker 1: hasn't been there. So the Indians at fifteen hemorrhaging first
Speaker 1: fives just hasn't gone their way. Uh. Four betters us
Speaker 1: far this year. By the way, our friends at team
Speaker 1: Rankings all always provide for us in terms of just
Speaker 1: the raw data, what's the run production and run prevention
Speaker 1: in the first five innings. The Minnesota Twins um they
Speaker 1: no surprise based on their record there, it would not
Speaker 1: be surprising to know that they have scored the most
Speaker 1: runs on average per per first five thus far this year.
Speaker 1: So the Twins are playing three point five three runs
Speaker 1: per first five thus far this year. So that's a
Speaker 1: great betting experience if you can rely on them and
Speaker 1: to get three and a half runs every first five,
Speaker 1: you'll take that every time. By the way, Texas right
Speaker 1: behind them three point three eight. They've shown up on
Speaker 1: a lot of positive boards thus far in the show
Speaker 1: Yankees third three point one four runs per first five.
Speaker 1: You know, they just with the trends were starting to
Speaker 1: see within this show. Rangers are kind of all those
Speaker 1: good boards. Everyone has been on a lot of the
Speaker 1: bad ones. You know, that's exactly right. You see a
Speaker 1: lot of trends. And by the way, the Giants who
Speaker 1: we just mentioned are horrific bottom five in terms of
Speaker 1: first five, they only score they score the fewest runs
Speaker 1: per first five this year one point nine run excuse me,
Speaker 1: one point nine one runs per first five thus far
Speaker 1: this year versus Minnesota's what five point three three point five? Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: but one point nine ones. By by the way, the Marlins,
Speaker 1: just to give you some comparison, score one point nine
Speaker 1: three runs per first five, just just ahead of the Giants,
Speaker 1: Detroit two point zero one, San Diego two point zero six,
Speaker 1: and Toronto, who again flirting with one of the worst
Speaker 1: on base percentages of any team ever just two point
Speaker 1: one five runs per first five thus far this year.
Speaker 1: So just think again, I get back to take yourself
Speaker 1: or remove yourself from the betting experience, from the from
Speaker 1: the betting raw numbers momentarily and just take yourself into
Speaker 1: the betting experience. If you're betting the Giants first five
Speaker 1: this year, not only are you hemorrhaging twenty units if
Speaker 1: you bet them blindly, and you shouldn't be, but they
Speaker 1: only score they score less than two runs per first five.
Speaker 1: How would you like to live through that every night?
Speaker 1: Just absolutely just I don't know how you're betting on
Speaker 1: that team anyway? About it right now? In terms of
Speaker 1: run prevention first five, like, who's the best the Dodgers,
Speaker 1: who end up with the second best with with the
Speaker 1: best record but the second most money. In terms of
Speaker 1: first five, no surprise that they give up the fewest
Speaker 1: runs first five. They only give up one point seven two.
Speaker 1: So they're basically facing a worse version of the Giants
Speaker 1: offense first five, or or I shouldn't say they're facing
Speaker 1: they are making it that they're facing a worse offense
Speaker 1: than the Giants first five only one point seven two
Speaker 1: runs allowed first five thus far this year. The Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Ray's second best in run prevention first five just
Speaker 1: one point eight three runs allowed first five since Senata
Speaker 1: two point zero one two point zero one runs allowed
Speaker 1: first five thus far this year. That plays into what
Speaker 1: Spora was talking about. They're only five and a half
Speaker 1: games back the Reds in the National League Central. Their
Speaker 1: run differential is right on the heels of the first
Speaker 1: place Cubs, and much of that has to do with
Speaker 1: this great starting pitching performance here and I'll have to
Speaker 1: look it up, but they're you know, they're over under record.
Speaker 1: The Unders are incredible. I think I think they're the
Speaker 1: best team in the baseball right now to the under.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're just they're preventing, but they're not scoring either.
Speaker 1: That would be the issue. Yes, Seattle, by the way,
Speaker 1: the worst team in terms of giving up runs first five.
Speaker 1: The Mariners have given up three point six runs per
Speaker 1: first five this year. So we talked about how the
Speaker 1: Dodgers are basically making the opposing offenses worse than the Giants.
Speaker 1: The Mariners are making opposing offenses better than the Twins
Speaker 1: first five. Baltimore right behind them, giving up three point
Speaker 1: five one runs per first five thus far this year.
Speaker 1: The Chai Socks and Giants right behind them three point
Speaker 1: two nine and three point two four respectively. By the way,
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays rounding out the top five three point
Speaker 1: one nine, so that Giants and Blue Jays basically show
Speaker 1: up add in every category we've discussed today, just terrible,
Speaker 1: whether raw records, raw numbers, or betting numbers. Giants and
Speaker 1: Blue Jays just the worst of the worst. Noteworthy that
Speaker 1: the Marlins are not in that category, typically because the
Speaker 1: Marlins are getting so much bang for their buck when
Speaker 1: they win that they tend to get relieved of this
Speaker 1: horrific um horrific uh sort of notes in terms of
Speaker 1: being at the bottom of all of these lists, and
Speaker 1: it might also look a little different with them if
Speaker 1: we were doing this a few weeks ago. That's right,
Speaker 1: we just happened to do it. That's a good point.
Speaker 1: We just happened to be doing it right when the
Speaker 1: first team is rounding the bend here at the halfway mark,
Speaker 1: that's specifically being the Mariners. So those are your first
Speaker 1: five inning stats, both to the good and to the bad. Again,
Speaker 1: what what of this can we can we feel its sustainable?
Speaker 1: I think the Dodgers is absolutely sustainable. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's any question about that. I think the Yankees and
Speaker 1: the Rangers are Rangers because of that offense and because
Speaker 1: of that ballpark, and the Giants and Blue Jays of
Speaker 1: the bad. I mean, could you could make the case
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays might get better, But I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: You're not a believer of the Twins. I just I
Speaker 1: think the Twins are good. I just don't think they
Speaker 1: can sustain what they were doing. And we've already seen
Speaker 1: some aggression on that already. Um, I think they'll still
Speaker 1: be good, But I'm just saying with those offenses, the
Speaker 1: Yankees and the Rangers, and conversely the Giants and Blue
Speaker 1: Jays that to those, to me, seem more sustainable than ever. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. It's it's it doesn't seem like
Speaker 1: the Giants and blue Jays are gonna be going far
Speaker 1: from where they're at on this list. Interesting to look
Speaker 1: at again. Thanks to Joe Osborne filling in for our
Speaker 1: on side sports guys on the first five just updated
Speaker 1: through the weekend to the very moment. We'll come back
Speaker 1: and we will give first inning stats. Now, these are
Speaker 1: completely proprietary to this show. You will not hear or
Speaker 1: find these anywhere else. There's something that I call through
Speaker 1: the years, a lot of us want to bet first innings.
Speaker 1: We have been betting first innings, yes and no, on
Speaker 1: this show for years and on the podcast for years.
Speaker 1: I know everybody's just sort of discovering it this year,
Speaker 1: but we of uh, we've sort of been tracking this
Speaker 1: for years, and uh, I want to get into the
Speaker 1: pictures that show up the best in the first innings
Speaker 1: thus far this year and the pictures that show up
Speaker 1: worst in the first frame. And then later on the show,
Speaker 1: Jason wine Garten himself hopefully with some first inning bets,
Speaker 1: we'll see what bets he wants to make on today's
Speaker 1: slate coming up QT derivatives MLB Right here on the
Speaker 1: Numbers game at Visa down Back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa
Speaker 1: in studios in Las Vegas. Board tweets at beating the book.
Speaker 1: Always appreciate the feedback. Uh Godfather seven oh two. As
Speaker 1: Nick Bogdanovitch says, to bet baseball, you need to be
Speaker 1: sick and hate yourself. As Nick Bogdanovitch also says, to
Speaker 1: bet baseball you need whiskey and a revolver. There's no question,
Speaker 1: true words that've never been spoken. And I was on
Speaker 1: the right side of it last No, not the right side,
Speaker 1: but the winning side of it last night. And I
Speaker 1: believe me, I wanted to hug the under betters for
Speaker 1: that Angels Cardinal Sunday night game. This from jet Ware three.
Speaker 1: Gil loved the Q two derivative show. Oh We're not
Speaker 1: done yet jet with the Giants first five so off
Speaker 1: the mark already twenty units. What's your thoughts on a
Speaker 1: daily fade? Well, I don't I don't advocate anything auto
Speaker 1: fade or auto back, but it's always something to consider,
Speaker 1: of course, based on price. You gotta look at it
Speaker 1: like you do anything. But yeah, I mean the thing
Speaker 1: about this show today is there have definitely been consistent
Speaker 1: themes with teams to the point where where it's been
Speaker 1: really really consistent. I don't remember it ever quite being
Speaker 1: that consistent across the board on a Q two, but
Speaker 1: it certainly was today. Uh, this is BH buying is
Speaker 1: your Is your buddy e active on Twitter posting info
Speaker 1: for dumbasses like myself? Or does he remain in the
Speaker 1: shadows unlike one of your shows guests who is like,
Speaker 1: look at me. I don't know what he's referring to.
Speaker 1: He's taking a shot at something. He's taking a shot
Speaker 1: at one of somebody else that I have. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know who that is. Uh five times, rich Gil,
Speaker 1: what's your best guests that it would take to get
Speaker 1: your buddy to do a guest segment on your show?
Speaker 1: Slim to none, He will not come on the show,
Speaker 1: do your off. I I've heard it from from Afar
Speaker 1: and what I've produced. Listen, let me tell you. Let
Speaker 1: me sell somebody not only the most successful sports better
Speaker 1: I know, um, but makes me about twenty times better
Speaker 1: at my job because he's he's always thinking of things
Speaker 1: that I do not think of it necessarily, it's good
Speaker 1: to surround yourself with people like that, which especially when
Speaker 1: you're doing this job. Yeah, I mean no, I think
Speaker 1: anybody who thinks they you know, that they can only
Speaker 1: you know, being a vacuum and and think they could
Speaker 1: cover every ground. No, No, I think our just our
Speaker 1: text exchanges three ways. By the way, with Chris Felik
Speaker 1: on text that it just makes you that much more,
Speaker 1: your antennas are raised that much more. But no, he
Speaker 1: will not come on the show. I get it. Let
Speaker 1: me get it. Maybe one day, remember our final day
Speaker 1: ever on this show. Maybe for three you know, it's
Speaker 1: the end of Gil he's on today. All right, let's
Speaker 1: conclude the Q two derivatives with first inning stats. Now
Speaker 1: we've been betting these on this show and on the
Speaker 1: podcast for many many years. Let me start with and
Speaker 1: this is really I get to what if this is narrative?
Speaker 1: What of this is actually predictive? So this from our
Speaker 1: buddies over at team rankings again, Tom Federico and company
Speaker 1: over there at team rankings. These are just the percentage
Speaker 1: first inning scoring percentages. So this is the percentage of
Speaker 1: time that a team has actually played it at least
Speaker 1: a run in first innings thus far this year, and
Speaker 1: again talk about the themes that we're talking about earlier.
Speaker 1: The Texas Rangers have played in a run thirty eight
Speaker 1: point four six percent of the time and first innings
Speaker 1: thus far this year. Now you say to yourself, maybe
Speaker 1: that means they'll played a run thirty eight point four
Speaker 1: or six percent of the time moving forward, And I
Speaker 1: would say to you, nothing really predictive about them, Just curious,
Speaker 1: just interesting. This stuff is very interesting because I feel
Speaker 1: like it almost produces more questions, you know, like will
Speaker 1: you throw that out that I want to know? Okay,
Speaker 1: so is that where does that rake historically? You know
Speaker 1: what I mean? Well, that's a very good point. It
Speaker 1: ranks pretty highestorically. But here's you know, second places Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay their thirty seven point one eight percent. Now do
Speaker 1: you remember about a month and a month a half
Speaker 1: ago when everybody on this network was going crazy because
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay score. There was always a run scored into
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay first inning. And I sat here on a
Speaker 1: numbers game and I'm like, you're taking people off the scent,
Speaker 1: like there is no predictive nature to it, because you
Speaker 1: know what, no one can possibly sustain that. And sure
Speaker 1: enough the rays and first inning and you hear nobody
Speaker 1: talking about it anymore, like it never happened. So I
Speaker 1: think we we can't be prisoners of the moment on
Speaker 1: this stuff. And so just you know, just for interest sake,
Speaker 1: for another example of that, everybody on this second network
Speaker 1: is talking about Gito, so I think there's a bet
Speaker 1: on him every time he starts on this network. Well,
Speaker 1: people have done very well betting on Julie. And I'm
Speaker 1: not I'm not saying it to to in any way
Speaker 1: to sparage anybody. I'm just saying, in the case of
Speaker 1: first innings, for those of us who have done this
Speaker 1: for years and years and years, not exactly what we're
Speaker 1: supposed to look at. But for the purposes of this show,
Speaker 1: I just want to point out some numbers. Milwaukee and
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay both at thirty seven point one, uh playing
Speaker 1: runs in the first inning thus far this year. By
Speaker 1: the way, just to give you an idea how ridiculous
Speaker 1: it is. Guess who fourth places in terms of reliability
Speaker 1: of scoring a run in the first inning. Is this
Speaker 1: back to the Marlins again, Baltimore thirty five point nine
Speaker 1: percent of the time they score a run in the
Speaker 1: first inning. By the way, the worst San Francisco Giants
Speaker 1: take another bow. Yeah, there's another list to put them
Speaker 1: up on. Fifteen point seven nine percent of the time.
Speaker 1: That's all fifteen, so three out of three out of
Speaker 1: every uh twenty times they score a run in the
Speaker 1: first inning. Basically, Miami Marlins second worst. Only eighteen point
Speaker 1: four two percent of the time do they score run.
Speaker 1: Oakland Athletics two percent of the time. By the way,
Speaker 1: we could go and look at first inning score prevention
Speaker 1: and do the same exercise, but I don't want to.
Speaker 1: I don't want to take you off anymore sense, So
Speaker 1: we'll just we'll leave that to the back burner. These
Speaker 1: are proprietary stats. Now. These are starting pitchers thus far
Speaker 1: in the in the major leagues thus far this year,
Speaker 1: minimum fifty plate appearances faced. All right, So I said
Speaker 1: A said a bar there that they had to have
Speaker 1: faced at least fifty different plate appearances of opposing batters.
Speaker 1: Who are excuse me, Kelly, who are the worst pictures
Speaker 1: thus far this year in first innings? For whatever reason?
Speaker 1: Who are the worst? If I gave you forty guesses,
Speaker 1: would you guess the worst? I could not name any
Speaker 1: of these guys I can tell you about. I think
Speaker 1: I could name twenty pictures of baseball right now. So
Speaker 1: you're asking the wrong guy, Gil, Maybe I am uh.
Speaker 1: This gentleman was was most noteworthy this weekend for being
Speaker 1: very mouthy in the Mets locker room in the Mets clubhouse.
Speaker 1: Jason Vargas the worst. But we're talking about through the
Speaker 1: prism of of opposing on base percentage. Now in first innings,
Speaker 1: Jason Vargas is the worst starting pitcher in all of
Speaker 1: baseball first innings along with Michael Walker of the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: The both of them tied opposing batters first innings thus
Speaker 1: far this year minimum fifty plate appearances faced. They are
Speaker 1: allowing a four twenty one on base percentage opposing batters
Speaker 1: Vargas and Waka. That's really interesting because obviously, when we
Speaker 1: talk about pictures, you're talking about you know, the first
Speaker 1: time through the lineup, you should be the most successful, right,
Speaker 1: So it's it's tough, I guess, to think that you're
Speaker 1: the worst at that in the league. It is, but
Speaker 1: it is top of order, right, So there's that. But
Speaker 1: You're right, it's first time through, but it is top
Speaker 1: of order. By the way, Waka giving up a three
Speaker 1: eight batting average first inning, so he's just getting he's
Speaker 1: just getting raked um Drew palmerans in terms of on
Speaker 1: base percentage, next worst for fifteen Antonio sents a tela
Speaker 1: for fourteen on base percentage for opposing batters Kyle Freeland
Speaker 1: his teammate there or one time teammate on base percentage
Speaker 1: allowed You say Cokuchi from the Mariners, the rookie right
Speaker 1: after that four hundred. By the way, you know who's
Speaker 1: giving up a four hundred on base percentage? Tied with
Speaker 1: you say Cakuchi, Lucas gi Alito. First inning. We have
Speaker 1: found a category where Gilto is not doing well this year.
Speaker 1: The first inning is not so much. So keep that
Speaker 1: in mind with Gelato opposing batters. Four hundred on base
Speaker 1: percentage first innings for Geolto. So that's interesting to look
Speaker 1: at through that prison. Now, who have been the best
Speaker 1: in first innings thus far this year? I mean, I
Speaker 1: would think some of the aces that that now that
Speaker 1: we're talking about that, so I don't know, I mean Kershaw,
Speaker 1: I mean, well, I guess we just said Gelto is
Speaker 1: on the other side, so maybe not. Well, you are corrected.
Speaker 1: It is primarily aces. Uh. The single greatest though, is
Speaker 1: Michael Pineda of Twin Wow. Okay, that surprises me a bit.
Speaker 1: Fifty one plate appearances by opposing batters. He's only giving
Speaker 1: up a one eighty five on base percentage for posing batters.
Speaker 1: But then it is a sort of aces up there right. Well, no,
Speaker 1: it's Bueller, his teammate walk Buller, who I still consider
Speaker 1: the ace of the staff even though he was doing
Speaker 1: this a seven time I brought up a ball, but
Speaker 1: he said that this weekend he'd take Walker Bueller in
Speaker 1: one game over you. Oh no doubt A Mall is
Speaker 1: getting a lot of juice on this show to because
Speaker 1: I didn't think I've mentioned it this anytime. They checking
Speaker 1: the minute from a mone Walker Bueller second best too
Speaker 1: oh four on base percentage allowed opposing batters like talking
Speaker 1: about them all on the show. Jacob Degram third, third
Speaker 1: best two oh seven on base percentage allowed opposing batters,
Speaker 1: Chris Sale to ten opposing batters on base allowed. So
Speaker 1: first innings they've been great Panada Bueller, de Graham Sale
Speaker 1: top four. Uh, Frankie Mantas, who will no longer be
Speaker 1: with us for Adie games. He why the way, also
Speaker 1: showed up in the top ten. It should be noted, well,
Speaker 1: whatever he was taken was working out for him, at
Speaker 1: least in the first innings. UM, so that's interesting. Again,
Speaker 1: those are those are how starting pitchers have performed. Those
Speaker 1: are proprietary statue won't find those anywhere else. Who has
Speaker 1: been the best? Who has been the worst in terms
Speaker 1: of first inning performance thus far this year? Now? To
Speaker 1: what extent should that inform your first inning bets? I
Speaker 1: have famously come on this show now for more than
Speaker 1: two years and said it's the one thing. Although I
Speaker 1: guess I said something in tennis I wasn't willing to
Speaker 1: talk abut last night this had typically been the one
Speaker 1: thing I wasn't willing to talk about. And I'm still
Speaker 1: not willing to talk about how we bet first innings.
Speaker 1: And let's just say what I've mapped out for you.
Speaker 1: Maybe not the most important thing in the equation, but
Speaker 1: interesting none the less. Okay, but interesting Nonetheless, As I
Speaker 1: popped the mic with the all this stuff, it's very
Speaker 1: it's it's very interesting, I think, especially we're taking deep
Speaker 1: looks at it like we are today. But you're right,
Speaker 1: take take with a great assault, right, you know, don't
Speaker 1: desire you're betting around it? Well, I think, But I
Speaker 1: think when we look back on this entire show, I
Speaker 1: think the key to all of it has been And yes,
Speaker 1: we can take from the first innings, I think we
Speaker 1: can take a nugget or two for sure. But the
Speaker 1: consistency with with with with which the Rangers and the Yankees,
Speaker 1: teams like that came up on top the Dodgers, and
Speaker 1: the consistency with which the Blue Jays and the Giants
Speaker 1: like they are just bereft of any betting. Like after
Speaker 1: you hear a show like this, can you, under any
Speaker 1: circumstance put money behind the Giant Blue Jays on any
Speaker 1: given day? You have you have absolutely schooled the that
Speaker 1: I that will depute doing that for the rest of
Speaker 1: the season, at least for the rest of the quarter,
Speaker 1: at least for the rest of the Baseball betting is
Speaker 1: hard enough, as we've documented so many times on this
Speaker 1: show too. For you to go through the experience of
Speaker 1: betting on those teams, what are you doing? It's it
Speaker 1: is It is crazy to see how just what you
Speaker 1: talked about how many times a couple of these teams
Speaker 1: have ended up on every single graphic with it. Think
Speaker 1: that we've talked about now. Listen, No, no one has
Speaker 1: bet baseball. I'm sure there has been some people, but
Speaker 1: I've bet baseball for for decades. I did it through
Speaker 1: predicted modeling. So listen, I understand it's all dependent on price.
Speaker 1: Value is value. I get it more than any you know,
Speaker 1: as much as anybody. But sometimes teams are just that
Speaker 1: bad where even the prices the market's given them, you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's one of these things where we talked about
Speaker 1: the beginning of last year, the chasm between the halves
Speaker 1: and the half nots has gotten so wide that even
Speaker 1: when your model shows value on the Orioles and the
Speaker 1: blue Jays and the giants, even when there should trigger
Speaker 1: a bet, right and you're like, oh, hey, look these
Speaker 1: teams are plus two fifty, uh and I have them
Speaker 1: at plus two hundred, Well I should make a bet
Speaker 1: on them. Yeah. I just don't know if you should
Speaker 1: just blindly bet your model anymore with some of these teams.
Speaker 1: That's the point of all this. It's like, I get it,
Speaker 1: your model says one thing but can we have a
Speaker 1: little humility with your model because these teams are just
Speaker 1: that bad it all say, you know, I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: I used to bet baseball more heavily. I've gotten away
Speaker 1: from it, one of those ballendio guys. I'm sorry, I've
Speaker 1: got more into CFL and stuff like that. It's just
Speaker 1: tortures me a little bit. But you know, beginning of
Speaker 1: the season, I felt like I would seeing numbers that
Speaker 1: I never saw five years ago, and did consistency that
Speaker 1: we were seeing teams at plus two eighty two ninety
Speaker 1: three hundred. It suckered me into bet on other orioles
Speaker 1: a couple of times. I'm like, you know, it's the
Speaker 1: two weeks into the season, I'm getting plus three dollars, okay,
Speaker 1: And what did they just shot? And what this show
Speaker 1: has shown at least through the first two quarters of
Speaker 1: the season, at least through the first half or take
Speaker 1: it two games that even even doing that, um, it
Speaker 1: is not a winning proposition. In fact, you will hemorrhage money.
Speaker 1: Will it be the case moving forward? Well that's for
Speaker 1: us to determine. It's just a sort of a cautionary note,
Speaker 1: if you will, from all of us here in the
Speaker 1: numbers game that visa full p s A from all
Speaker 1: of us when we talk baseball.