WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 Q2 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.880 Check it down, man now down then Monday morning, June 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:17.079 and Eating of this podcast, Jill Alexander, m lb Q 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:19.720 two derivative show. You know how we do this. We 0:00:19.800 --> 0:00:21.680 do it each and every year on the Beating the 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.560 Book podcast. The Mariners are past the halfway point that 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:27.120 gives us license to do it. We'll talk MLB betting 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:32.199 stats through the perspective of money line wagers, as if 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:34.920 you're betting these teams each every day bizarro exercise, but 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:37.760 teaches us stuff about each and every one of these 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:41.240 ball clubs from a betting standpoint money line, home road splits, 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:44.360 run line, a sort of de facto power ranking. I 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:48.320 should say not to mention starting pitching stats, umpire over 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:52.080 under who's reliable, who's not from that perspective, and of 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:54.360 course that it gets a little more proprietary first five 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:58.440 inning stats as well as first inning pitching performance. You 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:00.640 won't find that anywhere else but right here on the 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:04.440 podcast mlb Q two Derivatives, right here on the Beating 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:07.720 of the Book podcast. Enjoy this is a numbers game 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:10.920 with Gil Alexander broadcasting only on the Vegas Stats and 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:16.480 Information Networks. On those gidiots who believe in analytics, analytics, 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.160 statistics and more are used to win wagers, and Gil 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.400 has every number you need to cash your tickets now 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.280 live from the Visan Studios in the South Point Hotel 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.720 and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is a numbers game. 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.440 Good morning to you on a Monday morning here at 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.200 Serious XM Channel two oh forts where sports betting analytics 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:38.000 live actionable sports betting information. Gil Alexander. Um, So here's 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:40.160 the deal today on the show, you happen to land 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:41.920 on the one day, Kelly, the one day you're here, 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:46.160 you happen to land on our Q two Derivatives MLB show, 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:50.240 So Major League Baseball Derivative betting stats show, which we 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:53.160 do every quarter here Q one, Q two, Q three. 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.200 So one team has rounded the uh the midway bend. 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:58.360 So we took that as an opportunity to do the show. 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:00.800 The Mariners are past the halfway more arc here of 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:02.280 the MLB season. They got a bit of a head 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:05.200 start on folks, and so today on the show, if 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.600 you are a baseball nerd uh man, is this nirvana 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:10.320 for you? By the way, if you are not, I'll 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:12.560 just try to say silly things and maybe entertain you. Anyway, right, 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:16.000 which not so yeah, this was you know Covery baseball. 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:19.240 It covered the Bartles years ago. I've moved on from 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.160 baseball since covering the Barley. The covering of the Barlos 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:24.480 will help you kill your interest in baseball. Do you 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.040 do you have a cold? Kelly? You sound like you've 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:29.040 been under the bat a cold right now? Okay? All right, 0:02:29.160 --> 0:02:31.160 well feel better. Trying to get you some medication during 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:32.360 the show, and we'll see what happens to you by 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:34.079 the end of the show. All right. So what that 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.760 means today is not only will we have we'll have 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.440 little interludes. Paul Spore from fan Graphs will show up. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:42.200 We'll talk to him about baseball in general, beyond betting 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.720 how he feels about We'll do it through abetting prism 0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:47.560 division odds with what's going on in each divisions Paul 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:50.640 Sport from fan Graphs. We will also have Jason Weingarten 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:52.080 at the end of the show to talk with us 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.880 about his bets of the day, which sometimes and most 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:59.240 often becomes first inning bets. So we will have that. 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.320 But in the in the meantime, what we'll do is 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:05.320 we'll do money line money line splits, run line those 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:08.960 are all very widely available stats. Then we'll sort of 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:12.000 narrow it down and do different categories. Starting pitching, we'll 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:14.200 talk about umpires. Will bring in Mark Borcher, who has 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:17.480 historical umpire stats force primarily for totals betters, but also 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:21.520 for sides. Going to know which umpires tend to Uh, 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:24.400 I don't know. Let's say call balls and strikes in 0:03:24.440 --> 0:03:26.959 their own unique kinds of ways. And I put together 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:29.720 these graphics. It's sure it tells you the stats, that's 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.079 for sure. Yeah. And then we'll do five inning stats 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:34.320 first five because people love betting first five. So we'll 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:36.640 talk about the teams that have formed the best first 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:40.200 fives and the worst. And then proprietary first inning stats 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:43.320 that you will not find anywhere else. We have them 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.000 here on a numbers game, and we'll talk about the 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:49.280 pictures that perform the best and the worst in first 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.160 innings to help inform your first inning bets. Now, here's 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.000 the caveat to all of this, and it should be stated, 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:56.520 and I'll stay it. I'll state it again at some 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.200 point during the show. Much of this is going to 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.720 just be narrative. The whole point of this show is 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:05.440 to give you predictive information. Some of it's gonna be narrative. 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.440 Someone's gonna be predictive. It's up to you, obviously, is 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.480 the better to determine which you feel is more predictive 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:13.080 than not. But a lot of it is just, oh, well, 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.840 this has happened. Is it sustainable? And that's sort of 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.520 the question that's the conundrum here. If it was that easy, right, 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.800 if we're just giving stats, was that easy projecting moving forward, 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.640 then everybody would be a rich person, Benny. But it's 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:29.160 always fascinating to look at and to determine what could 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:33.120 continue and what is just sort of a mirage that 0:04:33.279 --> 0:04:35.720 has no ability to be sustained. Let us begin, sir, 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:38.039 by the way major League Baseball this weekend. We were 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:39.480 just talking with Mitch and Paul E. Moan wents Ago 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:41.680 and this is why it's fun to have Sporer on 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:43.960 the show today as well. But it has just been 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:48.200 unbelievable the things that have gone on in Major League Baseball, 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:50.160 specifically like you remember, have to go back for like 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.400 just yesterday, we're talking about how the Padres against the Pirates, 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:55.880 Padres first team in the last eight five seasons to 0:04:55.920 --> 0:05:00.520 blow multiple three run leads after the eighth uh, they 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:04.120 were up seven to four over the Pirates. Pirates got 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:06.640 three to tip up to seven seven Padres put three 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.239 more up on the board. Pirates tied that eventually wanted 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:13.359 eleven to ten. Unbelievable. Then there's the Dodgers three straight 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:16.039 games where rookie hit a walk off home run. That's 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:18.640 never happened in the history of Major League Baseball. By 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:21.480 the way, the Rockies bullpen talked about the volatility of baseball. 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.120 Rockies bullpen eight and the third innings in their series 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:27.799 against the Dodgers gave up eight earned runs, four homers, 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:31.640 including those three walk offs. So predicting baseball on a 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:33.480 day to day base is hard enough. We'll try to 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:35.960 give some perspective on it with all the stats that 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:38.479 we go through today, beginning with let us start Kelly 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:41.520 with let's do the broadest one, which is money line 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.719 records for Major League Baseball teams, and these are widely available. 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:49.120 Covers dot com a great source to find money line uh, 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:53.120 sort of the exercises of Bizarro one. Let's say you 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.120 showed up the beginning of a Major League baseball season 0:05:55.160 --> 0:05:57.480 and you decided to bet every each one of these 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.320 teams as a favorite laying the money to win a unit, 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:04.640 or as a dog laying the unit to win. Uh. 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:07.320 And if you perform that Bizarro exercise, here are the 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:09.800 teams that are hooking you up the best in terms 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.600 of in terms of the return on investment, it is 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.800 the Minnesota Twins. The Minnesota Twins here fifty and twenty 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:18.800 seven in your standings, they would have netted you eight 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.680 team point five units. Again the Bizarro exercise of having 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:24.160 bet them every single day thus far this year. The 0:06:24.279 --> 0:06:28.960 reason they were often priced very very generously early in 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.640 the season before folks caught on, before the market caught 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.839 on to how good this baseball team actually is. Dodgers, 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:39.080 no surprise, second sixteen points six five units roughly in 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:40.920 your pockets of you bet them every day thus far 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:43.240 this season, and keep mine with the Dodgers their favorites 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:46.560 and sometimes big time favorites on given days. So for 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:50.040 them to have that kind of unit hall for you 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:53.000 just tells you how good of a baseball team this is. 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.279 And as I was mentioning with Mitch and Pauli moments 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:58.279 ago in our crossover, there fifty four and twenty five, 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.840 the Dodgers, we are getting into we're not quite in 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:05.760 Seattle Mariners two thousand, one sixteen game territory, but their 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.440 paces righted about one hundred and ten wins right now. 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.840 That's how good the Dodgers are. Rangers, if you had 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:14.680 this before the season started, good for you, Rangers number three, 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.600 number three team and sent in terms of who has 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.280 been best for better's fifteen points seven units in pockets 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:23.960 for bizarro Rangers betters, that is, Rangers betters who would 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.280 have bet the Rangers every single game thus far this season. 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:28.560 By the way, if you're betting the Rangers every game, 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:31.480 or any team any game over every single game, perhaps 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:34.280 you're doing something a little little nuts. Maybe that's not 0:07:34.320 --> 0:07:35.520 how you want to bet things, but you get it 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.440 for the exercise's sake. Braves and White Sox close out 0:07:38.760 --> 0:07:40.960 the top five in terms of the best money line 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:43.680 teams four betters in baseball thus far this year. And 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:45.920 again the White Sox, even though they're thirty six and 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:51.080 thirty nine, they are dogs so often and such generous 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:52.560 dogs if you will, a lot of bang for your 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:54.920 buck that even at thirty six and thirty nine they 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:57.040 would have netted you seven point eight five units. Thus, 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:58.960 far this year. By the way, the converse of that, 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.360 because we'll get to the splits momentarily, but the converse. 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:03.720 The worst R O I teams in all of baseball. 0:08:04.040 --> 0:08:07.800 No surprises here your Baltimore Orioles. And when I say you're, 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:10.320 I mean mine grew up on the Orioles twenty two 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.080 and fifty six. They would have hemorrhaged you nineteen point 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:15.920 five five units roughly if you had bet the Orioles 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:17.840 every single day as far this year, and by the way, 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:19.640 if you've done that, you really are doing something wrong. 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:24.480 Royal Second fifteen point three units. Uh Down, Blue Jays 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:30.280 fourteen point seven five units. Blue Jays just offensively so Hamstrong, Nationals, 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.760 and Red Sox. Some couple of these teams, not like 0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:35.959 the others, Nationals and Red Sox, would have cost you 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.200 the most money. And in the Red Sox case, it's 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:40.400 the fact that they are favorites and such big time 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:43.120 favorites so often that even at forty two and thirty seven, 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:45.480 they would have cost you the fifth most amount of 0:08:45.559 --> 0:08:48.280 units in baseball thus far this season as we round 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.080 the halfway bend, just over fourteen units. If you had 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.600 bet the Red Sox blindly thus far this season, by 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:56.240 the way, in terms of home road splits, Kelly, this 0:08:56.400 --> 0:08:58.800 is all this is often interesting to people. If you 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:03.000 look at home split the single two best teams in baseball, 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.719 just betting them at home, it's not even close. It's 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:09.520 the Dodgers and the Rangers. The Dodgers and the Rangers 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.079 who are second and third overall when it comes to 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:17.480 home performance. They are leaps and bounds, not just leaps, Kelley, 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.319 leaps and bounds better than any other team at home. 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:25.520 The Dodgers eighteen point five units to the positive at home, 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:28.640 the Rangers eighteen point one units to the positive. If 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:30.599 you had bet them every single time thus far this 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.120 season at home. Now, if you were paying attention moments 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:36.920 ago and actually mentioned that their overall numbers were slightly 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:41.440 below their home numbers, so yes, this is the case, 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:43.800 then that if the Dodgers and Rangers are eighteen point 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:47.000 five and eighteen point one units respectively, as blind bedders 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:50.360 would have them at home, they are slightly in the negative. 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:52.720 Both of those teams on the road, by the way, 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:57.080 the Dodgers and Rangers represent in terms of home road splits. Therefore, 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:01.280 the widest gap of any teams in baseball in terms 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.040 of home road splits. By the way, the team that 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:05.520 came in third that might be of interest to some 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:10.160 folks is of all teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who was roughly, yeah, 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:13.000 roughly of cost you nine point nine units at home, 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:16.760 but would have you up nine point nine units on 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:20.640 the road. So the Diamondbacks, who are middle about twelve 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:25.280 overall money line, they're middling. They like the Dodgers and Rangers, 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:27.959 have huge home road splits. It's just that the Diamondbacks 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:32.720 splits are reverse splits. And doesn't everybody know in Phoenix, 0:10:32.960 --> 0:10:34.800 in the Greater Phoenix area, they're sort of nodding their 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.640 heads like, yeah, not a great home experience that it 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.000 has not been for the diamond Backs thus far this year. 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:43.680 Um so those are the widest gaps between home road splits. 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.440 By the way, if you're wondering who's the worst at home, uh, 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.439 no surprise. The worst team at home would be the 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:53.600 Baltimore Orioles. Seventeen of their nineteen point five overall units 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:57.920 lost have been at home at Camden Yards. Not good, 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:00.400 not good at all for the Orioles, who of us 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:02.760 who are down seventeen units in terms of home games, 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:05.240 by the way. Second worst at home the Boston Red 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:10.240 Sox at Fenway fourteen point five units down at Fenway 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:14.760 Park in terms of their home performance road performance, again 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.880 we're talking money line Minnesota Twins, who are number one overall. 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:21.840 Most of their units have been gained on the road. 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.840 Of their eighteen point five units gained overall, twelve point 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:27.680 three of those have been on the road. There twenty 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:29.920 six and fourteen on the road this year again for 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:32.600 for twelve point three good for twelve point three units 0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.480 for Bizarro Bettors in terms of their road performance. That 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:38.480 is by far the best actually know by far. But 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.280 number two of all teams in baseball was the aforementioned 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:45.040 Arizona Diamondbacks, who had that wide split wide split rather 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.200 between home and road. Diamondbacks up nine point five years, 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:51.120 nine point nine five units. Excuse me, onto the road, 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:52.800 by the way, and he guesses who the third best 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.640 road team is on the money Line, Kelly, Oh god, 0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:59.640 you have mentioned them already on this show. I've met 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:01.920 you to the Marlins there, I was gonna say, I 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:06.000 think I really mentioned one teams. So the Marlins nine 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.240 point four or five units for betters on the road. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:11.400 How about that pretty incredible? You know, the two things 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.600 that that I take away when we look at these 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.520 r o I numbers both like just overall and hope 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:18.440 and away you know you mentioned it a little bit 0:12:18.480 --> 0:12:20.959 of both. But as far as the best r OY teams, 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:25.520 you know, the Rangers to be forty two and thirty 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:28.800 six and to be that strong at home is impressive. 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.240 And that maybe even weirder is the Dodgers, who are 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.920 so good losing you buddy when they go on the road. Uh. 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:37.640 You know that when we look at the bottom r 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:41.120 o Y teams, Uh, you know, like you you mentioned before, 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:43.439 you the Red Sox being heavily favorite, maybe not a 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:46.480 shocker to see them there, But the Orioles are that 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:48.959 bad because they've been that bad from the beginning of 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.600 the season. So it's almost tough to end up at 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:54.200 the top of that list when you're getting plus two 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:56.680 one are plus two fifty every day? And again for better? 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:58.800 Is the question once again is okay, all this is 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.079 fun and interesting to look at. How much of this 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.280 is predictive moving forward? Can the Rangers still be that 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.959 good at home? Uh? Can the Dodgers still be that 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.120 middling on the road. As Kelly just pointed out, by 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:13.440 the way, the worst road teams in terms of the splits, 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:15.760 because we didn't get to those yet, the worst road 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:17.920 team in all of baseball in terms of money line 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:23.559 split would be and he guesses, Kelly, I gave you. 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:25.400 If you give, if I gave you five guesses, you 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:26.559 might not come up with us. And maybe I'll just 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.720 tell you it's the Mets. Mets are down ten point 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.679 eight units on the road, closely followed by the Kansas 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.160 City Royals who are down nine point three five units 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.640 on the road. So nothing really to see there. I'm 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.839 not not so sure there's anything to read into that 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.839 in terms of run line. Now, this, of course is 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:46.439 what I like to call a sort of power um 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.480 number for betting teams, because on the run line, again, 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:52.280 if you're winning as a favorite, winning by more than 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:54.120 a run and a half, and if you're losing, if 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.760 you're good, sometimes you get within that run and a 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:58.480 half and you lose by just one run. So this 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.480 will correlate a lot with one run records. But in 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:04.560 terms of who's the best run line team in baseball 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.640 this year? So again, Bizarro exercise you're betting this team 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:09.760 on the run line, whether as a favorite or as 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.440 a dog, each and every single game thus far this year. 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.199 The number one run line team UH in terms of 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:20.560 record and in terms of your cash the Rangers, the 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.880 aforementioned Texas Rangers, who are forty seven and thirty one 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:25.880 on the run line thus far this year, good for 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:30.520 fifteen point one units. So remember, the Rangers are fifteen 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.880 points seven units up on the money line if you 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:34.560 bet them every time this year, if you've bet them 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.600 on the run line, you'd be up fifteen point one units. 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:40.240 Rangers thus far this year first half of the season, 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:42.960 just a few games shy of that. For them specifically, 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:49.120 they are a better's dream. Diamondbacks have the second best record, 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:51.000 as is shown on the screen here. But let me 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.480 give you in terms of the money haull second best 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.440 team in terms of money in your pocket on the 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:57.880 run line, it's actually the New York Yankees, which fall 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:00.240 fourth on the screen right there. They would have up 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:02.840 twelve point four five units. What are the Rangers and 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.760 the Yankees have in common. A whole bunch of offense. 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:07.960 A whole bunch of offense that even when they're pitching 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:12.480 is middling, they will hit you into oblivion. And so 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.080 the Yankees number two to the Rangers in terms of 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.360 the best teams on the run line, sort of a 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:19.520 de facto power ranking, if you will. In terms of 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:23.480 the worst, well worst than the record actually not worstan 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.720 a record. The Orioles of this are the worst record, 0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:28.800 but they're the second worst in terms of money lost 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:30.800 on the run line. They would have cost you fifteen 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.320 point six five units. By the way, third worst on 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.360 the run line would be the Toronto Blue Jays also 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:37.840 pictured there. They would have cost you fourteen point nine 0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:41.080 units on run lines this year Red Sox also pictured 0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:44.040 fourth worst, fourteen point five five. But you know who 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.320 would actually have cost you the most money on the 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.680 run line, not pictured in the worst five records, which 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.240 gives you an idea of how a mnemic their offense is. 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.880 It is the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco Giants thirty 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:59.520 six and forty on the run line, but they'd have 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:04.280 cost you sixteen point nine five units in terms of money, uh, 0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:06.640 in terms of run line bets. So that has a 0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:09.160 lot to do with the fact that the Giants aren't 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:12.480 gonna hit very well. Um and the fact that sometimes 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:18.040 their market price is just not uh commensurate, if you will, 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.840 with what the results have been. So all very interesting 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.840 in terms of the numbers. Now again, what of this 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.960 is predicted. Can the Rangers keep this going? I don't know. 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:30.920 With that hitting, maybe they can, Maybe they can't. With 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:34.320 that ballpark, specifically at home, maybe they can. So remember 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:37.240 that's the thing with the Rangers. Really really good money line, 0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:40.080 really really good run line, and really good specifically in 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:44.560 terms of the money line at home Texas Rangers. Very interesting. 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:47.760 Will come back, We'll do starting pitchers, and we'll do umpires. 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:51.760 We'll bringing Mark Borchered talk about his historical umpire records 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:55.560 to sort of draw conclusions on whether this one half 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:59.920 season performance really has legs in terms of the umpires 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.720 career performances over time. Then we'll bring in Pulsemore We'll 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.320 talk to him about Major League Baseball beyond betting. Jason 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.639 Weinart with first inning Picks, will do it all on 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:09.840 the mlb Q two derivative show right here on a 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.640 Numbers Game at Visa Down Back to a Numbers Game 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:15.960 with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our Visa 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.760 in studios in Las Vegas back on the numbers game 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.639 here at visa United States Women's World Cup team on 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:24.720 the field. By the way, Chris Feleik of the Bear 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.000 from mespn's College Game Day chiming in on those stats 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:29.240 that we just went over, and I think correctly so Kelly, 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.600 you were alluding to this as well, uh, saying that's 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.440 a little surprising the worst teams and units of the 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:36.119 Orioles and Jays, just because there's such huge dogs all 0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:39.080 the time that a win usually negates a couple of losses, 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.439 which is exactly right, But yet they're so bad at 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:45.439 baseball Oriels in particular Blue Jay's offense and by the way, 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.720 Blue Jays on base percentage flirting with some of the 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:52.240 worst on base percentages of all time. Uh. And it's 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:55.600 tough way betting experience. I talk sometimes about this. Imagine 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:58.359 if you step back a second and you think about 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:00.359 this stuff, and you're like, all right, well, what is 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:03.600 the experience like betting on a team like the Blue Jays, 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:07.159 like backing that offense and just the misery of just 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.520 not cashing in, um, not getting even ducks on the 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:13.480 pond if you will to have a chance to score 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.879 runs it's just so it's such a tough betting experience 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:19.359 here in the dog days of summer. Let's continue because 0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:21.680 we want to do starting pitchers here real quick, and 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:25.560 we'll get to umpires umpires of of note for totals betters, 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:28.200 also side betters, but particularly totals betters. Let's see the 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:32.560 starting pitchers real quick here, Kelly, Lucas Giolito. In terms 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.200 of the Bizarro exercise, if you had bet every single 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:38.280 Lucas Giolito start thus far this year, and what a 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.600 far cry, what a difference a year makes, because last year, 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:43.240 every time Gelto was on the hill, I say this 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:46.720 all the time, I would list his stats and they were, 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.919 if not the worst in all of baseball per fan Graphs, 0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:52.200 they were right in the top two worst, and I 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:55.520 would have to apologize to the Giolito family for reciting 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:58.800 them every day. We'll look at that. Lucas Giolito is 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:03.560 the single best pitcher starting pitcher for betters thus far 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:07.440 this year. The White Sox eleven and three in Gelto starts, 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.280 you'd be up ten point five five units just having 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.239 bet Gelto starts blindly, by the way we faded him 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.040 last time. If you recall on the show Brandon Woodroff 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:19.000 of the Milwaukee Brewers. Brewers are thirteen and three in 0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:22.040 his starts, he would have netted you nine point one units. Again, 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:25.880 these courtesy of covers. These are widely available. Andrew Kashner 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.640 of the Orioles, we're just talking about the Orioles. Well, 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.720 if you're an Orioles pitcher and the Orioles happened to 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.160 go nine and six when you're on the hill, that's 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.320 just what Chris was talking about, you'd be up eight 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:39.520 point nine units. That's how easy it is for you 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:43.480 to accumulate units if in fact the Orioles performed for you. 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:45.560 And Andrew Kashner has had a lot of run sport 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:47.800 on the hill for the Orioles. Eight point nine units 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:50.680 and Kashner starts. We talk about what is sustainable and 0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:53.359 what is unsustainable. Let me just throw that into the 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.520 unsustainable category. Is pretty crazy to think about, where when 0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:58.560 you're looking at everybody else we have on this graphic, 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:01.600