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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tyler Kendall here alongside at Joe Matthew in Washington,

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Speaker 2: where the government shut down continues. We are in now

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Speaker 2: in day twenty three, and we're seeing Republicans starting to

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Speaker 2: try to ramp up their own pressure on Democratic colleagues.

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Speaker 2: We saw the Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Capitol Hill

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Speaker 2: today and we've given you a lot of different dates

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Speaker 2: to put in your calendar, but Joe, here's another one. Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: Sean Duffy confirmed is the first full paycheck that could

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Speaker 2: be missed by air traffic controllers amid really what's been

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Speaker 2: a shortage already from them since this shutdown has started.

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Speaker 3: To think we're clearing another pay cycle here is pretty remarkable.

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Speaker 3: It was two weeks ago we were talking about how

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Speaker 3: that might be an inflection point, but it's true in

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Speaker 3: air traffic controllers long before the shutdown ever hit, and

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Speaker 3: we were reminded of this with that terrible tragic crash

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Speaker 3: here in Washington, d C. In many cases working sixty

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Speaker 3: hour weeks, exhausted away from their families, and to remove

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Speaker 3: their paychecks right now is a very difficult circumstance knowing

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Speaker 3: we simply cannot train more air traffic controllers fast enough

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Speaker 3: to fill these towers. So yes, the airline component here

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Speaker 3: is a big one. We talked about the expiration of

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Speaker 3: SNAP benefits the first of November, the open enrollment, all

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Speaker 3: of these items are creating a pretty major point of

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Speaker 3: pressure here on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 4: That brought us to our conversation with HACKEM.

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Speaker 2: Jeffreys right exactly, and just to put a finer point

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Speaker 2: on that November first, state four Snap benefits. We really

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Speaker 2: are seeing this become an issue on both sides of

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Speaker 2: the aisle. But I can say that I spoke to

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Speaker 2: one senior age to Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer today who

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Speaker 2: told me that it really is the moderates within the

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Speaker 2: Democratic Conference that appear to be, I mean, making this

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Speaker 2: a pressure point, and that is something that we should

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Speaker 2: watch as we inch closer to that date.

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Speaker 4: That's for sure. The aforementioned.

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Speaker 3: David Gore is still in Washington, and Grace is our

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Speaker 3: desk right now here. On balance of power, of course,

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg correspondent, host of The Big Take podcast, Which is

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Speaker 3: why you sat down for a good chunk of time

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Speaker 3: with Hakim Jeffreys in his office. The sense of frustration

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Speaker 3: was I'm guessing palpable.

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Speaker 4: It was.

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Speaker 5: And as you both know, this is such a unique shutdown,

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Speaker 5: the circumstances of it, how it's unfolding, and you've done

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Speaker 5: such a good job of laying out all the potential

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Speaker 5: pressure points here in the days to come. So far

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Speaker 5: over the course of these twenty three days, a lot

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Speaker 5: of people have been shielded from those effects.

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Speaker 4: The effects of the shutdown.

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Speaker 5: We've seen Russell vote that of omb moving a lot

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Speaker 5: of things around to make it so that some people

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Speaker 5: are paid, others aren't. Some programs are kept running, others aren't.

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Speaker 5: That can only last so long, one would think. And

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Speaker 5: as we look ahead to Friday of this week to

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Speaker 5: Tuesday of next week, to when open enrollment begins for

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Speaker 5: health insurance, pressure is going to mount. So it was

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Speaker 5: a good time to sit down with the minority leader

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Speaker 5: just to get a sense of sort of how this

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Speaker 5: is all unfolding from his vantage in a very quiet

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Speaker 5: capital building today. I asked him just sure of what

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Speaker 5: kind of conversations are happening among Democrats and Republicans, And

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Speaker 5: here's what he had to say.

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Speaker 6: We, as Democrats, we continue to make clear to our

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Speaker 6: Republican colleagues that we will sit down with them anytime,

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Speaker 6: any place in order to reopen the government to negotiate

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Speaker 6: a bipartisan agreement that actually makes life better for the

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Speaker 6: American people in terms of spending and funding. But we

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Speaker 6: also have to decisively address the Republican healthcare crisis. We've

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Speaker 6: maintained that position from the very beginning before Republicans shut

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Speaker 6: the government down and during the entirety of this shutdown,

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Speaker 6: because it is a real crisis that has been created

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Speaker 6: at this moment, particularly as it relates to the urgent

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Speaker 6: need to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits.

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Speaker 5: As you and I are speaking, the House speakers doing

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Speaker 5: a press conference just down the hall, what is the

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Speaker 5: level of engagement? Do you pass one another? Are you

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Speaker 5: speaking with one another? Are Democrats talking to publicans right now?

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Speaker 6: The conversations have been very limited, unfortunately, because Donald Trump

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Speaker 6: has not given House Republican leaders or Senate Republican leaders

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Speaker 6: permission to negotiate reinforcing the principle from our view, that

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Speaker 6: he made the decision to shut the government down. They

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Speaker 6: want to continue to inflict pain on federal employees. They've

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Speaker 6: done that from the very beginning of Donald Trump's presidency.

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Speaker 6: In fact, more than two hundred thousand federal employees had

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Speaker 6: been forced off the job prior to the government shutdown,

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Speaker 6: and this is something that we've continued to see them

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Speaker 6: build upon during the shutdown until Donald Trump gets serious

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Speaker 6: about reopening the government. Unfortunately, we're going to remain in

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Speaker 6: this situation and every day Americans are being hurt.

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Speaker 5: He's getting ready to take a trip to Asia. Is

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Speaker 5: it appropriate for him to be doing that at this

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Speaker 5: moment when the government is shut down.

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Speaker 6: I think that the president has a responsibility both domestically

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Speaker 6: and throughout the world. However, what has been irresponsible is

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Speaker 6: that throughout this shutdown he's found more time to golf

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Speaker 6: than he has to engage with Democrats on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 6: He's decided to try to steal two hundred and thirty

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Speaker 6: million dollars in taxpayer funds from the Department of injustice.

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump and his.

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Speaker 6: Administration have found forty billion dollars to bail out a

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Speaker 6: right wing want to be dictator in Argentina and can't

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Speaker 6: find a dime to extend the Affordable Care Act tax

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Speaker 6: credits to keep healthcare affordable for tens of millions of Americans.

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Speaker 6: And on top of all of that, they are demolishing

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Speaker 6: the East wing of the White House in ways that

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Speaker 6: have appropriately horrified the American people.

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Speaker 5: I want to ask you about potential off ramps, and

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Speaker 5: Tammy Baldwin the Center from Wisconsin Democrats said Trump is

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Speaker 5: the off ramp at this point. Do you agree with

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Speaker 5: that assessment? And has there been any kind of outreach

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Speaker 5: or dialogue between you and the White House?

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Speaker 6: Lada Schumer made Claire earlier this week that we have

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Speaker 6: reached out to the White House again to indicate that

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Speaker 6: prior to Trump's departure for Asia, he should sit down

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Speaker 6: with Democrats to find a path forward to reopen the government,

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Speaker 6: to enter into a bipartisan spending agreement, and to address

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Speaker 6: the healthcare crisis that Marjorie Taylor Green acknowledges must be addressed,

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Speaker 6: and that traditional conservatives who are in the toughest seats

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Speaker 6: in the country have now publicly acknowledged this week needs

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Speaker 6: to be addressed.

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Speaker 5: Can I ask you a question of congressional mechanics, and

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Speaker 5: that is, can the Democratic leader pick up the phone

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Speaker 5: call the White House and reasonably expect the president's going

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Speaker 5: to take that phone call?

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Speaker 4: Are you able to do that?

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Speaker 5: And if so, what's keeping you from having that done well?

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Speaker 6: Traditionally that probably is the case, but in this White

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Speaker 6: House that's very much unclear. Donald Trump didn't have a

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Speaker 6: meeting with House or Senate democratic leadership until two days

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Speaker 6: prior to the government shutting down.

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Speaker 5: It was Opening Night at the Garden last night Nicks

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Speaker 5: versus Calves nixt one, nineteen to one eleven, also the

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Speaker 5: final mayor debate in New York City?

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Speaker 4: Did you watch it?

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Speaker 5: Have you kept up with what happened on stage last night?

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Speaker 6: I wasn't able to catch the debate live. I did

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Speaker 6: catch the final few moments of the next game, I

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Speaker 6: do admit, but the debate had already ended at that

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Speaker 6: point by time my day ended. I didn't think it

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Speaker 6: was interesting yesterday and a strong step that was taken

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Speaker 6: by Zoran, the Democratic nominee, when he indicated his intention

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Speaker 6: to retain our current police Commissioner, Jessica Tish. I think

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Speaker 6: that probably will provide a lot of comfort to people

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Speaker 6: throughout the city of New York. She's done a great job,

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Speaker 6: she's well respected. We're a diverse city, and it'll be

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Speaker 6: interesting to see how that is received upon my return home.

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Speaker 5: You've been asked about this a thousand times. Let me

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Speaker 5: ask a thousand and one times. Are you prepared to

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Speaker 5: endorse the Democratic nominee for mayor in New York?

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Speaker 6: Well, what I'll say is I'm prepared to weigh in

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Speaker 6: in advance of early voting and early.

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Speaker 4: Votes two days away. Early voting starts on Saturday.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, what's holding you up? And what are the issues

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Speaker 5: that you're still concerned about? And I know that you

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Speaker 5: said the last time you were about this, you're gonna

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Speaker 5: have a conversation with sorry Mundani, another conversation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, what's left undiscussed?

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Speaker 6: Well, I helped speak to them today or tomorrow, and

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Speaker 6: in fact, I plan on speaking to them today and tomorrow.

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Speaker 6: And I think from my standpoint, look, I was prepared

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Speaker 6: to try to bring this to a close one way

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Speaker 6: or the other several weeks ago, and then the government

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Speaker 6: shut down hit and honestly, it's been all encompassing because

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Speaker 6: this is a traumatic moment for the country that this

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Speaker 6: has been inflicted on the American people. And then layer

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Speaker 6: on top of it, right, just shutting the government down

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Speaker 6: as Republicans have done is very problematic, but trying to

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Speaker 6: communicate with the American people why we as Democrats also

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Speaker 6: believe that addressing the Republican healthcare crisis is necessary and

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Speaker 6: explaining the entirety of the assault on their healthcare that

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Speaker 6: has occurred this year, beginning with the one big ugly

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Speaker 6: bill and the largest cut to Medicaid in the American history,

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Speaker 6: and the fact that they're hospitals and nursing homes and

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Speaker 6: community based health centers are closing all across the country.

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Speaker 4: Home care will be adversely affected.

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Speaker 6: The possible cut to Medicare at the end of the year,

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Speaker 6: the Republican refusal to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits,

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Speaker 6: and the threats that they're now making to even try

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Speaker 6: to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and the assault on

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Speaker 6: public health infrastructure. This is extraordinary stuff. We've never seen

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Speaker 6: anything like this in the history of the country, which

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Speaker 6: is why we believe it needs to be decisively addressed,

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Speaker 6: along with of course, reopening the government, standing by a

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Speaker 6: hard working federal civil servants, and making sure that we

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Speaker 6: can enact a bipartisan spending group. So it's been all

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Speaker 6: encompassing for the last several weeks. That said, I do

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Speaker 6: have a sense of obligation to weigh in one way

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Speaker 6: or the other in terms of the mayor's race in

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Speaker 6: advance of early voting.

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Speaker 5: So I did watch the debate and the themes of

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Speaker 5: criticisms that came up from the other two candidates. He's

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Speaker 5: inexperienced and his comments on the middle Easter problematic? Are

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Speaker 5: those likewise the same issues that you want to talk

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Speaker 5: to him more about? What's left unsaid between the two

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Speaker 5: of you.

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Speaker 6: Well, I've certainly already publicly communicated and privately communicated some

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Speaker 6: of my concerns with respect to some of the views

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Speaker 6: that he's expressed in terms of foreign policy. That said,

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Speaker 6: I believe his relentless focus on affordability is the right focus.

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Speaker 6: The question becomes for any mayor, for any executive, how

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Speaker 6: are you going to implement that objective? Because it's the

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Speaker 6: right objective, But he's got to navigate a treacherous governmental

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Speaker 6: terrain in terms of the city, state, and most significantly,

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Speaker 6: the federal government, because it's clear that Donald Trump has

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Speaker 6: it out for Democratic led cities all across the country,

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Speaker 6: and we've got to be prepared for the fact that

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump is coming from New York.

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Speaker 4: I guess my question is one of confusion.

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Speaker 5: So I sat down with Governor Cuomo, and in that

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Speaker 5: conversation he said, I'm a Democrat. My dad was a Democrat.

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Speaker 5: He's really taking up that mantle. Of course, he lost

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Speaker 5: the primary. He's running as an independent. Yeah, isn't there

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Speaker 5: an element here of confusion that in this vacuum and

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Speaker 5: you could, I guess, do something to close that vacuum

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Speaker 5: he's able to take up that mantle to the detriment

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Speaker 5: of the duly elected Democratic nominee.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's interesting because he's running as an independent, so

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Speaker 6: he's not the Democratic nominee. But of course he has

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Speaker 6: a long history as a Democrat. I think some of

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Speaker 6: the concerns that I've seen articulated, however, is well, what

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Speaker 6: is the actual path to victory given the inability to

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Speaker 6: convince a majority of Democrats in the primary that you

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Speaker 6: were the right person to lead the city? Moving forward?

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Speaker 5: At this moment, A fascinating conversation, wide ranging. We did

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Speaker 5: talk a lot about the Democratic Party and what it

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Speaker 5: can learn from the race in New York as well,

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Speaker 5: so picking up on what he's just saying there a

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Speaker 5: moment ago. I mean, zernimund Dotti had a substantial win

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Speaker 5: in that Democratic primary. Yes, what does he take away

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Speaker 5: from that as he looks at the political terrain across

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Speaker 5: this country, which of course is a huge part of

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Speaker 5: the Minority leader's job to assess who's running for what

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Speaker 5: primaries are ones that can be contended. We talked about

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Speaker 5: kind of younger voters that say that they might have

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Speaker 5: how they've been animated by some of these issues, and

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Speaker 5: we came back to that notion of affordability, which again

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Speaker 5: he got the mayoral candid New York got a lot

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Speaker 5: of praise from Hakim Jeffries about focusing on affordability in

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Speaker 5: a very, very very singular way.

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Speaker 2: Well. Affordability also perhaps lends to this conversation about the shutdown.

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Speaker 2: I was pretty struck with the Democratic leader telling you

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Speaker 2: that this is a traumatic moment for our country and

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Speaker 2: his words, we're of course tracking this vote on Capitol

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Speaker 2: Hill tonight potentially could pay federal some federal workers, but.

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Speaker 7: Doesn't look poised to pass.

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Speaker 2: Did you get any sense from a leader Jeffries that

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Speaker 2: the pay aspect the federal workers, they're potentially going to

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Speaker 2: miss this full paycheck tomorrow, that is really leaning and

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Speaker 2: weighing on the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 4: I think it is certainly weighing on him, and he

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Speaker 4: said as much.

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Speaker 5: But you heard from him in that conversation his adamants

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Speaker 5: that does not be duled out selectively, that you can't

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Speaker 5: prioritize some federal workers over other ones in the way

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Speaker 5: in which Republicans in the White House have proposed here.

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Speaker 5: So again, getting back to those pressure points, I think

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Speaker 5: there's a awareness here among Democrats and Republicans as well

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Speaker 5: that this is going to be a moment when, for

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Speaker 5: lack of a better phrase, a lot of Americans wake

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Speaker 5: up to the fact that this is happening.

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Speaker 4: It's going to really hit them hard.

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Speaker 5: And by virtue of how this is all played out,

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Speaker 5: that last paycheck wasn't one that was as seismic as

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Speaker 5: this one is likely to be. So yes, I think

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Speaker 5: he recognizes it's going to weigh on a lot of people.

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Speaker 5: Is it enough to kind of push him to make

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Speaker 5: any concessions. No, it didn't seem like he felt that way.

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Speaker 3: Do we really believe he didn't watch the debate last night?

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Speaker 3: I mean I believe he caught the end of the game. Yes,

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Speaker 3: he didn't watch. It wasn't on in the office.

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Speaker 5: I mean two days away from an eye and only

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Speaker 5: believe what he's saying there. But I will say, in

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Speaker 5: New York where I live, these were two dually. I mean,

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Speaker 5: you've had both Canada, both Cuomo and Mundonni going to

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Speaker 5: the stage. The first thing they said was, sorry, you're

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Speaker 5: not able to watch the next game tonight, but thanks

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Speaker 5: to watching this debate. So there's a recognition of the

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Speaker 5: fat that there was some split screen programming there that

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Speaker 5: New York less.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, So if you'd done the interview tomorrow, we'd have

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Speaker 3: the endorsement. I guess I done the year like.

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Speaker 5: I got ninety nine percent of the way there based

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Speaker 5: on what he was saying about his obligations.

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Speaker 3: So what do you think of that? And did he

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Speaker 3: wait so long that it doesn't matter in New York.

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Speaker 5: That's a really great question, one I've really wrestled with

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Speaker 5: over the last few weeks. I spoke with Governor Quomo

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Speaker 5: a few weeks back. How much does an endorsement like

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Speaker 5: this matter of course, we haven't heard from Senator Schumer either,

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Speaker 5: and in the past both of them have wiged on

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Speaker 5: mayoral races. If you look at how well Mondanni performed

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Speaker 5: in that Democratic primary, he did so without these endorsements

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Speaker 5: streets Fine, So I think he raised a really great point,

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Speaker 5: which is how much does this really matter to the

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Speaker 5: base of support that's really elevated sort Mondanie, I don't

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Speaker 5: think that it matters that much.

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Speaker 4: But again, you heard there from Kim Jefferies.

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Speaker 5: He feels an obligation to do so because of his

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Speaker 5: his position he's in and that he's in the eighth

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Speaker 5: district of New York. He feels like he has to

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Speaker 5: do it. So we'll see if it in fact, he

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Speaker 5: doesn't hear in the next as I said two days yeah, well,

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Speaker 5: I was.

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Speaker 2: Going to ask where this is headed. How likely is

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Speaker 2: it that we are going to see something from the leader.

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Speaker 5: Look, I'm guessing you're based on the conversation, the tone

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Speaker 5: that he took, I think he's likely to do it.

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Speaker 5: I think he feels out obligations real one. But again,

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Speaker 5: time is sticking so.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot more of that interview.

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Speaker 3: By the way, the Big Take podcast about the droppers

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Speaker 3: just drop.

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Speaker 4: You're right here.

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Speaker 3: The whole thing Apple, Spotify, you know, the drill I

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Speaker 3: go through this every day is the Big Take podcast

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Speaker 3: with our good friend David Goriz. Great to have you

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Speaker 3: back in DC, David, and thank you for the great reporting.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Tyler Kendall. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

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Speaker 4: more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

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Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

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Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: The Thursday edition of Balance Power on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

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Speaker 2: And we have some breaking news happening. Just moments ago,

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Speaker 2: Senate Democrats blocking a Republican backed measure aimed at paying

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Speaker 2: military troops and some federal workers during the US government shutdown.

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Speaker 2: It is the latest sign that we are no closer

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Speaker 2: to any agreement to reopen the government.

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Speaker 7: Joe, a pretty partisan vote here.

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Speaker 2: It looks like it failed to advance fifty four to

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Speaker 2: forty five. Of course, as you well know, sixty votes

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Speaker 2: are needed in order to get such a measure through.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is something that we knew was going to happen.

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Speaker 3: We in fact talked to the author of that legislation

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Speaker 3: last evening, Senator Ron Johnson, who was struggling with this

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Speaker 3: idea of not necessarily having the votes for its pass,

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Speaker 3: knowing that Democrats were filibustering against this measure, and a

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Speaker 3: lot of campaign ads are probably going to be made

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Speaker 3: from those speeches, right right exactly.

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Speaker 2: But Democrats, of course have put up their own measures

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Speaker 2: and they're arguing, when it comes to this bill in particular,

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Speaker 2: it's going to give the administration too much power to

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Speaker 2: determine who gets paid and who doesn't. And ultimately that's

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Speaker 2: how this bill really did fail today in the US Senate.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's your take is spot on.

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Speaker 3: Democrats have two bills of their own today that they're

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Speaker 3: going to be offering. Chris van Holland, Democrat from Maryland,

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Speaker 3: has one, Gary Peters of Michigan.

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Speaker 4: The other those are going to fail as well.

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Speaker 3: So this swirl continues, and the aforementioned Ron Johnson, the

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Speaker 3: Republican from Wisconsin tried to make the case for his

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Speaker 3: bill last evening here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 8: Listen, clearly, the current system is utterly broken. Right now,

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Speaker 8: we just cross thirty trillion dollars in debt and definition,

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Speaker 8: and Sandy's doing the same thing over and over again,

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Speaker 8: expecting different results. So again we're in this dysfunction. Let's

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Speaker 8: not make federal workers who are being forced to pay

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Speaker 8: pay for our dysfunction.

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Speaker 4: Not a difficult case to make.

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Speaker 3: This is legislation that would pay employees who have been

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Speaker 3: forced to stay on the job, not furloughed, but still

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Speaker 3: as essential workers continue working. Democrats are concerned, as Tyler mentioned,

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Speaker 3: that gives the administration too much authority and in fact

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Speaker 3: makes it a case of some get paid and some don't.

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Speaker 3: And we shouldn't be making decisions like that now. Seven

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty thousand federal workers furloughed. See how our

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Speaker 3: panel feels about it. Bloomberg Politics contributors Adam Hodge and

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Speaker 3: Rick Davis are with us. Adam our Democratic strategist managing

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Speaker 3: partner at Bully Pulpit International, Ric Republican strategist in partner

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Speaker 3: at Stone Court Capital. What do you think about this, Rick,

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Speaker 3: we knew it was going to fail. This is going

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Speaker 3: to be fodder for Republicans in the midterms.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, this is just a sort of continuation of the

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Speaker 9: exercise that you know, leaders Thune has been doing every day,

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Speaker 9: putting up the clean cr for a vote. It fails,

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Speaker 9: Do it again tomorrow, it fails. I think there have

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Speaker 9: been eleven or twelve votes now on that. And so

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Speaker 9: this is sort of another way of saying the same thing,

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Speaker 9: which is, you know, we want to try to create

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Speaker 9: some progress on government reopening, but unless we've got a

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Speaker 9: deal across the board on all these various issues that.

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Speaker 4: The Democrats have raised, nothing is going to pass.

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Speaker 9: And you know, I actually think it may have a

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Speaker 9: pretty salutary effect on the employees, because these are the

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Speaker 9: folks who are sitting around going, now, wait, we're the victims.

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Speaker 9: You guys are dysfunctional on Capitol Hill, and maybe we

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Speaker 9: just start not showing up for work. And you know,

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Speaker 9: I think if I were in a union in the

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Speaker 9: federal government, which is almost laughable that I would be

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Speaker 9: in a union in the federal government, you would have

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Speaker 9: to argue that these union managers should start telling their

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Speaker 9: employee Hey, you know, maybe you shouldn't show up tomorrow.

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Speaker 4: Maybe we ought to do a walkout. Maybe.

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Speaker 9: I mean, like, I don't hear any of that happening,

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Speaker 9: and yet that's a classic union strategy.

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Speaker 2: Well, Adam, what's your take and what was the risk

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Speaker 2: reward calculus here for Democrats? Because, as Joe mentioned, this

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Speaker 2: seems like perfect fodder for Republicans as they start to

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Speaker 2: make their midterm election campaign ads.

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Speaker 10: I think the thing to keep in mind is that

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Speaker 10: you shouldn't pick and choose who does or doesn't get paid.

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Speaker 4: That's basic principle.

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Speaker 10: It just jo mentioned Democrats that put forward proposal to

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Speaker 10: pay all federal employees, as the law makes clear. I

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Speaker 10: think the fact that the White House has said that

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Speaker 10: they may or may not fire some folks and keep

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Speaker 10: some folks from quote unquote Democrat run agencies as if

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Speaker 10: they're not the leaders of the entire US federal government,

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Speaker 10: I think gives Democrats a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Of pause here.

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Speaker 10: But I think the biggest takeaway is that through all

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Speaker 10: of this debate, throughout the entire shutdown, it really has

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Speaker 10: become a topic about healthcare and what will happen on

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Speaker 10: November first, when people start seeing some of those real

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Speaker 10: price increases and get that sticker shock. And Democrats have said, look,

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Speaker 10: let's negotiate on this bill, come to Washington, let's do it.

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Speaker 4: The problem for the president.

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Speaker 10: I think the more he does go and play golf

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Speaker 10: or does take the trip to Asia, it raises questions

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Speaker 10: about whether he's serious about getting a deal and he

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Speaker 10: is the only one who can get a deal done

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Speaker 10: to stop the government shut down.

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Speaker 3: What do you think about the timing of this trip, Rick,

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Speaker 3: because it looks like the government will be shut down

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Speaker 3: for at least another week, and we're going to be

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Speaker 3: knocking on the door of November first here. By the

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Speaker 3: time the president gets back to the United States, that's

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Speaker 3: when snap benefits are going to start expiring and so forth.

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Speaker 3: This gives Democrats, as we heard from Hawking Jefferies a

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Speaker 3: little while ago, a pretty good talking.

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Speaker 4: Point as well. Should the president cancel.

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Speaker 11: No.

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00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,120
Speaker 4: I kind of feel for the president.

442
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 9: This is actually the one time he hasn't exactly told

443
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,400
Speaker 9: Thune and Johnson what to do, and then he gets

444
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 9: criticized for usurping Congress. Right, here's Congress's chance to go

445
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 9: and do their job. The president has a job to do.

446
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,679
Speaker 9: He should go to Asia. He should meet with Chi.

447
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,880
Speaker 9: He should figure out a way past these trade barriers

448
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 9: that we have installed and make sure that Asia doesn't

449
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 9: erupt into either a trade war.

450
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 4: Or shooting war.

451
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 9: I mean, like, I'd say that's important, and that's the

452
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 9: President's job, and he didn't pick the timing of this.

453
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,959
Speaker 9: But I just can't fathom why there isn't more leadership

454
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 9: by the Republican leadership in the House and Senate. It's

455
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,880
Speaker 9: their House and Senate, and they have been criticized heavily

456
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 9: for being usurped by the White House. And here's an

457
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 9: opportunity that they can do something on their own to

458
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 9: get government back working, and yet they seem unable to

459
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 9: finding a strategy that will work twenty two days in

460
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 9: And I mean, I don't know about you, Joe, but like,

461
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 9: that's a long time to be thinking, oh, we'll just

462
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 9: keep doing the same thing and that'll work over time.

463
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 4: That is the definition of insanity.

464
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 2: So, Adam, is it actually more to perhaps Democrats benefit

465
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: if President Trump does get more involved with these conversations,

466
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,160
Speaker 2: whether that is before or likely after he comes back

467
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 2: from this trip to Asia.

468
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 10: I mean, on this, I just listened to some of

469
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 10: the President's on words. I mean, he is clearly articulated

470
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 10: in some of his more candid moments that he knows

471
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 10: is healthcare issue is a real anchor around the political

472
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 10: standing of the Republican Party. It's shocking maybe to some,

473
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 10: but the fact that Marjorie Taylor Green, even as Kim

474
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 10: Jeffries alluded to, is essentially saying the same thing that

475
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 10: House Democrats have been saying, that this is a real issue.

476
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 4: We've got to solve this issue.

477
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 10: It hurts working class families who are going to pay

478
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 10: higher premiums for healthcare. That is I think the President

479
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 10: understands the politics of it. I think John Foon and

480
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 10: to more a greater extent, Speaker Johnson has politics in

481
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 10: his caucus, in their conference that makes it harder to

482
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 10: do a deal on the ACA. But at the end

483
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 10: of the day, as Reck was alluded to, the math

484
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,679
Speaker 10: of the vote of the Senate is sixty votes. The

485
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 10: way out of this is doing the deal that gets

486
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 10: sixty votes to reopen the government and tackle the healthcare

487
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 10: crisis that some of the Republicans created. And so I

488
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 10: think that is the key, and the sooner we get there,

489
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 10: the sooner this will all be over.

490
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 3: We have an update on the ballroom projects that we

491
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: need to ask you both about, of course, happening at

492
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 3: the White House right now as the President leaves. I

493
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 3: guess they'll be able to do some serious work over there,

494
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 3: because it is a massive construction site, and according to

495
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 3: some it looks like somebody dropped a bomb on the

496
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: East Wing. There's an update here, just even in the

497
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 3: last twenty four hours. President Trump has now decided to

498
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: demolish the entire East Wing of the White House to

499
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 3: make room for the ballroom. Remembering that he had said

500
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 3: back in July when this was first announced the construction

501
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 3: of the ballroom, that it would not interfere this is

502
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 3: a quote, would not interfere with the current building. The

503
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 3: project's plans paid total respect, he said, to the existing

504
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 3: structure's architectural style.

505
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 4: Two things have happened since then.

506
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 3: One, the price tag has gone up one hundred million

507
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 3: dollars to three hundred million dollars. And as the President

508
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 3: explained yesterday in the Oval Office, they had no choice

509
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 3: but to tear down the entire East wing.

510
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 12: Listen, we determined that after really a tremendous amount of

511
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 12: study with some of the best architects.

512
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 4: In the world.

513
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 12: We determined that really knocking it down, trying to use

514
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 12: a little section. You know, the East Wing was not

515
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 12: much It was not much left from the original. It

516
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 12: was over the course of one hundred years, it was changed.

517
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 4: Well, it's gone, or it will be soon.

518
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 3: I actually took a walk by there last evening, Rick

519
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: and realized you actually cannot walk through the complex on

520
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 3: Pennsylvania Avenue.

521
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 4: There's a massive wall there.

522
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 3: They've walled off Lafayette Park and there's a wall running

523
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 3: along the Treasury Department, so you cannot see this demolition

524
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 3: taking place or take pictures of it. You've worked in

525
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 3: the White House for a couple of administrations. What did

526
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 3: you think when you saw the entire East Wing is

527
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 3: coming down?

528
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 4: You know, I'm kind of torn. You know, it is

529
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 4: a historic location, right, and it is.

530
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 9: A rare thing to have in the middle of the

531
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 9: nation's capital, both the office and the residence of a

532
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 9: present in one place. I mean, it's a wonderful kind

533
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 9: of construct for the American people. That being said, there's

534
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 9: been a lot of changes to the White House, the

535
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 9: West Wing, the East Wing over many, many years, and

536
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 9: so change in its own right has already been happening

537
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 9: quite a bit, and it's not the same place that

538
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 9: it was initially, and the bridge burned it down in

539
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 9: the eighteen twelve war, So like there's been a lot

540
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,959
Speaker 9: of changes in that place over time. And yet at

541
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 9: the same time, and I do think they could use

542
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 9: more function rooms like this. I mean, you almost have

543
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 9: to now do things inside the White House compound for

544
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 9: security reasons. I mean, we used to go over and

545
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 9: do events for the White House and like the Daughters

546
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 9: of the American Revolution Hall.

547
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 4: Because it was just down the street and we could

548
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 4: walk there. I can't really do that anymore. So I'm

549
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 4: kind of I'm kind of.

550
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,719
Speaker 9: Torn because I do think the facility needs upgrading, and

551
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 9: you do need a bigger ballroom capability. The East Room

552
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 9: just doesn't hack it for the kinds of things that

553
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 9: are considered normal today for heads of state.

554
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 4: And yet at the same time, I'm feeling kind of

555
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 4: sad about it.

556
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 2: All Right, our political panel today, both Bloomberg Politics contributors

557
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Adam Hodge, thank you both so much.

558
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 2: And a redhead crossing the terminal right now. President Trump

559
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 2: confirms he will meet with Chinese President Jijingping that's next Thursday.

560
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 2: That's according to the White House Press briefing that's currently underway.

561
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: We'll get into that and a lot more when it

562
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: comes to foreign policy, including moves against Russia.

563
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 7: That's up ahead. Stick with us.

564
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 4: This is bloom Stay with us on Balance of Power.

565
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 4: We'll have much more coming up after this.

566
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

567
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: is live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

568
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

569
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

570
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: flagship New York State and just Say Alexa played Bloomberg

571
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: eleven thirty.

572
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us here on the Thursday edition

573
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 3: of Balance of Power. Hunt Bloomberg TV and Radio with

574
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 3: breaking news from the White House. This just came from

575
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 3: the Press Secretary, who's at the podium right now in

576
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 3: the briefing room, with some opening remarks making clear that

577
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: the meeting will take place President Trump and Chinese President

578
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 3: She will sit down together on October thirtieth, that's a

579
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 3: week from today. Knowing the President is about to be

580
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 3: wheels up this weekend toward the APEX Summit in South Korea. Tyler,

581
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 3: You're going to be along for the ride on this trip.

582
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 3: This is about as high stakes as it gets, as.

583
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 7: High stakes, highly anticipated, Joe.

584
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 2: It's going to happen on the sidelines likely of the

585
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 2: APEX summit that's happening in South Korea. There is a

586
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: lot at stake in this meeting. But I have to

587
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: say our analysts at Bloomberg Economics say that their base

588
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: case right now is that we're likely looking at a

589
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: ninety day extension to that tariff truce that's in place

590
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 2: that's set to expire on November tenth, if everything goes

591
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 2: as planned. But of course at the table everything from

592
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 2: export curbs to soybeans, to also China's imports of Russian

593
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 2: energy supplies, which brings us to this latest move from

594
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 2: the White House moving to sanction two of the largest

595
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 2: Russian oil companies. And we heard this come out of

596
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 2: the White House yesterday after President Trump had met with

597
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutta. He explained earlier sort

598
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 2: of where these negotiations where with Russia currently stand. Take

599
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 2: a list into part of what he had to say.

600
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 12: We canceled the meeting with President Putin.

601
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 4: It just it didn't feel right to me.

602
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 12: It didn't feel like we were going to get to

603
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 12: the place we have to get, so I canceled it.

604
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 4: But we'll do it in the future.

605
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 5: Mister President, can you tell us a little bit about

606
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 5: why you're elevating I guess.

607
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 7: Russia right now currently?

608
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 13: It was time.

609
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 4: We've waited a long time. I thought that would go

610
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 4: long before.

611
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 12: The Middle East and Mark, as you know, we did

612
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 12: the Middle East plus seven, so we did seven different wars.

613
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 2: That was the President yesterday at the White House. The

614
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 2: price of oil soaring today after the US announced these

615
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: sanctions against two of the largest Russian oil companies. It's

616
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: really considered a change of course for President Trump. This

617
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 2: marks the first direct US measures on Russia of this term.

618
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: WTI currently hovering around sixty two dollars a barrel, and

619
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 2: Bloomberg estimates that the Russian companies that were blacklisted, one

620
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 2: is stay controlled, the other is privately held. Together, they

621
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 2: account for nearly fifty percent of Russia's crude oil exports

622
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: for all of the latest and to look into whether

623
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: or not this is going to make a difference when

624
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: it comes to the Kremlins calculus, we're joined now by

625
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 2: Mike mcglohon Bloomberg Intelligence Senior commodity strategist, Mike, thanks so

626
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: much for joining us. Can you answer that question? Can

627
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: you put this into context? Just how difficult will it

628
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: be for Russian barrels to reach the market after this

629
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 2: move from the Treasury Department.

630
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 14: Well, that's the thing about Russian barrels, any type of sanctions,

631
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 14: they always find their way to the market.

632
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 13: This is a question how they do it, where they

633
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 13: do it.

634
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 14: And you also mentioned the largest one and largest buyer

635
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 14: of Russian oils, China. Yet China's total demand is declining,

636
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 14: so Russia's becoming increasingly dependent on its unlimited friendship with

637
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 14: President z to take that oil. But the bottom line

638
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 14: for crude oils, we've had a big bounce in crude

639
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 14: oil in a bear market from lows.

640
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 13: The memory was trading fifty seven dollars the other day.

641
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 14: The other day, the low for the years fifty five,

642
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 14: and last year's low is sixty five, so it's still

643
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 14: a mere much a bear market is bouncing. At the

644
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 14: same time, this week we had a pretty significant correction

645
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 14: and goal.

646
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 13: Now that's a bull market that's backed up.

647
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 14: But I look at crude oil as it's a bear market,

648
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 14: someone has to shift. And a bottom line I'll end

649
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,520
Speaker 14: with is Crudeil's going up. I'm so krudeo is going

650
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 14: down despite this record setting stock market. Just imagine if

651
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 14: we got a little pullback in the stock market, Crudel's

652
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 14: ready I think for the next inputus to push.

653
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 13: It towards those lower lows.

654
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 14: And it needs something unusual like this to keep at

655
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 14: least somewhat bid in the near term.

656
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 3: So you're not moving off your forecast though, right like Magellan,

657
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 3: you've been very consistent and you have been correct. Are

658
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 3: we going back below fifty dollars?

659
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 15: Oh?

660
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 13: Yes, I am sticking with that one, Joe. I don't

661
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 13: know what's going to change it.

662
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 14: And just the fact that Crudell's down about fifteen percent

663
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 14: this year and the stock market's off about fifteen percent.

664
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 14: That's divergent deflationary weakness. But it's not alone. Corn, soybeans, wheat,

665
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 14: the grains are all doing the same thing. Natural gas

666
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 14: as a problem. It's price for a colder than normal winter,

667
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 14: yet we might get normal global warming trends and Crudel.

668
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 13: Is just over supply.

669
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 14: And as to remember, what's changed in the history of

670
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 14: Crudel's last twenty years when the bottom around forty dollars

671
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 14: a barrel since two thousand and eight is US was

672
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 14: a larger import of that. Now US is one of

673
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 14: the largest export on a planet, a major producer, and

674
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 14: the rest of the world, for instance, trend is not

675
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 14: demanding as much anymore. Crudels just stuck in a normal

676
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 14: bear market. I don't know what shifts it, but I can.

677
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 14: I'm fearful what can really make it?

678
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 13: Excel? Right? And that's just a little backup in beta.

679
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 4: Got it. He's the best at this.

680
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 3: Mike mcglohan with US Life from Miami, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior

681
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 3: Commodity analyst, Mike, thank you so much. Right now, w

682
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: C West Texas Intermediate, as Tyler mentioned right below, sixty

683
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: two dollars a barrel up almost six percent. Brent crude

684
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 3: also rising almost six percent to sixty six dollars a barrel.

685
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 3: So we're seeing an instant reaction here on the financial markets.

686
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 3: The question what will be the diplomatic reaction to this?

687
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 3: And for help we turn to an expert. James Jeffrey,

688
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: the former ambassador, is with US right now on Bloomberg

689
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Former ambassador and longtime diplomat here in Washington.

690
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: It's great to have you back, sir.

691
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 3: Does this decision by the Trump administration does sanction Russian

692
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 3: oil bring us closer to an end to this war,

693
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 3: because so far sanctions have not done a lot to

694
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 3: alter Vladimir Putin's behavior.

695
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 15: No, that's true, but first of all, thanks for having

696
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 15: me ony, sir. This war is being fought in every

697
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 15: sense as an attritional campaign. Think of world will one

698
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,719
Speaker 15: at least in the West. Almost four years, but very

699
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 15: little change on the ground. So therefore little things are

700
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 15: not going to make a difference decisively. Rather they add up.

701
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 15: So you take what we just heard. This is pretty significant.

702
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 15: This is a major hit. In the end, the Russians

703
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 15: will get the oil out. We'll be able to absorb

704
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 15: that because, as you have been reporting, oil prices per

705
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 15: barrel have been quite low, around sixty dollars. They're up

706
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 15: a bit now, but this is going to hurt the Russians.

707
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 15: In addition, the Trump administration has been apparently dream lighting

708
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 15: intelligence or long range European missiles of the Ukrainians have

709
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 15: to hit targets deep inside Russia. You have the campaign

710
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 15: against refineries by the Ukrainians using their own drones, and

711
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 15: you have the Europeans moving forward on a slower timetable

712
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,800
Speaker 15: to cut off all Russian gas that they're still importing

713
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 15: bit by bit. This is a making things hotter for

714
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 15: the Russians. Their economies a point where it's not growing,

715
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 15: and they can produce more military capability although they can

716
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 15: sustain what they have. And two, it sends a signal

717
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 15: politically to putin that our will.

718
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 11: Has not collectively been broken.

719
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 15: That's important because he thinks he can wear down Zolensky,

720
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 15: way down Europeans, and way down.

721
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 7: Trump, mister ambassador.

722
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 2: Much to Joe's point earlier about this idea that we

723
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 2: have seen sanctions before, President Trump himself has pointed to

724
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 2: that as a reason why he waited. He's previously been

725
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 2: asked why he wanted to do this. He said he

726
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: wasn't sure if it would deter Russia or not, But

727
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 2: then he said that the time is right now if

728
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,800
Speaker 2: we sort of just retrace our steps from these past

729
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 2: few weeks. Is there any moment that you can point

730
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 2: to that you think might have been the tipping point here?

731
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 2: Or have we been creeping along towards this end goal?

732
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,760
Speaker 7: All along, we've.

733
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 11: Been creeping along.

734
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 15: But I would say the turning point was after the

735
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 15: President's recent call with Putin, where he thought and probably correctly,

736
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 15: that Putin gave him some signals, some hints that he

737
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 15: could be flexible on a ceasefire in a.

738
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 11: Termination of the war.

739
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 15: There was, in a follow up a call between Secretary

740
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 15: Rubio and the awful long term Russian foreign minister Lavrov

741
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 15: Mister no well. Apparently Rubio reported back that the Russians

742
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 15: were not moving. So Trump, who was invited Putin to Alaska,

743
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 15: was ready to have another summit in Budapest, decided this

744
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 15: guy is playing with him, so bang, he cancels the

745
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 15: Budapest meeting.

746
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 11: And also he's taking these additional steps.

747
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 15: Trump would like to see a negotiated settlement of this

748
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 15: walk because he doesn't see it leading to a Ukraine win,

749
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 15: and he needs to do business with Russia, he needs

750
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 15: to do business with China, etc. But he's not going

751
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 15: a cave on this, and that's another Today is another

752
00:36:59,080 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 15: signal of.

753
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 3: That is he correct on his assumptions about the battlefield. Ambassador,

754
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 3: I'm wondering where your thoughts are at this point. As

755
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 3: President Zelenski requests Tomahawk missiles to turn the tide in

756
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 3: this war. We know that they're also using long range

757
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 3: missiles even without the United States contribution being provided by Europe.

758
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 3: These desert shadow or dark shadow missiles if I'm using

759
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 3: the term correctly, could strike deep into Russia.

760
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 4: Is that what Ukraine needs?

761
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 15: Well, Ukraine has those from the French and from the British,

762
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 15: and as I said, they use American components and intelligence,

763
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 15: and we've just green lighted long range strikes into key

764
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 15: infrastructure inside Russia for them, So that's another big step.

765
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 15: The Tomahawks would help further, both as a signal of

766
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 15: American strength and willingness to push back on food and

767
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 15: also modually on the battlefield.

768
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 11: But basically, nothing.

769
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 15: Much is going to change the situation on the front

770
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 15: unless one of the other side collapses psychologically, politically.

771
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 11: Or economically.

772
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 15: In neither Ukraine or Russia seem to be in that

773
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 15: position now, So it's going to drag on unless we

774
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 15: can get negotiations going.

775
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 2: Well, you alluded to it there with how some of

776
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: our allies are also providing of course military assistance and

777
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: weaponry to Ukraine. The sanctions package that we were talking

778
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: about seems to be coming in concert with the European

779
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: Union this morning approving its nineteenth package of measures, including

780
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 2: that there's these plans to ban Russian energy imports into

781
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 2: the block by early next year. Can you talk to

782
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 2: us about how regional partners have been so important to

783
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 2: this effort, to the White House's stance when it comes

784
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 2: to the future of the war in Ukraine, particularly as

785
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: we had the NATO Secretary General Mark Rutta there just yesterday, right, and.

786
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 15: He is a guy who is able to turn Trump

787
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 15: around and explained to Trump why Europe and Ukraine are important.

788
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 11: He's playing a huge positive role.

789
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 15: But the Europeans have funded when you look at both weapons,

790
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 15: including buying them from US, and economic assistance, not to

791
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 15: speak of taking in refugees, a greater burden than the

792
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 15: United States has, but that's reasonable. We have global responsibilities.

793
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 15: They don't, and they're closer. There are also a lot

794
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 15: more Europeans than Americans, so that's okay. But they are

795
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 15: doing a good job. These latest sanctions, some come into

796
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 15: effect next year, some not until twenty twenty seven. But

797
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 15: the key thing is there has been broadly defined a

798
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 15: dramatic decline in hydrocommon exports from Russia into Europe since

799
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 15: twenty twenty two, particularly when the North Stream gas pipeline

800
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 15: was cut off. What we're seeing now is LNG shipments

801
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 15: and some oil shipments.

802
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 11: They need to be cut off.

803
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 15: That will take place, as I said, over the next

804
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 15: twelve to twenty four months, it's a good signal. In

805
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 15: the short term, I won't have much impact, though the

806
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 15: Trump oil sanctions that we were just announced will have

807
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 15: a bigger effect.

808
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 2: I think.

809
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:13,720
Speaker 4: Interesting.

810
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 3: So with our remaining moment, mister ambassador, is there a

811
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 3: need for secondary sanctions has been drafted on Capitol Hill?

812
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 3: Or should the president be in charge of us from

813
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 3: the White House?

814
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 15: The president always, regardless of the president, I'm speaking as

815
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 15: a guy who worked for many that has grown biased,

816
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 15: should have the final say on life of things, including

817
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 15: a conflict with another nuclear power.

818
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 11: But he needs to keep that in his back pocket.

819
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 11: He needs to escalate.

820
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 15: He determines, like Kennedy did in the Cuban crisis, how

821
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 15: quickly into what degree he escalates. But these things are

822
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 15: good tools, be it the tomahawks, be it these congressional sanctions,

823
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 15: secondary ones. If we need to put pressure on and

824
00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 15: he will eventually, I think if Pluton doesn't change his position, all.

825
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 2: Right, mister Ambassador James Jeffrey, former Ambassador to a Rock

826
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 2: and Turkey and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to

827
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 2: defeat ISIS, thank you so much for joining us.

828
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

829
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

830
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

831
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

832
00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.